If you weren't aware, I also publish posts at atlantabraves.about.com. I typically post a few times each week over there and here are my three most recent articles there.
Braves New GM Means Little Has Changed
When John Coppolella was "promoted" into his new job, it didn't mean much had actually been altered about the Braves braintrust. Over the last year+, Coppy has been basically the guy in charge of things with John Hart as his advisor. It was Coppy that did the legwork for deals that sent Craig Kimbrel to San Diego and Alex Wood to the Dodgers while bringing back players like Matt Wisler, Cameron Maybin, and Hector Olivera. Coppy was also instrumental in re-working the minor league system as the Braves gave him the freedom to do what they refused to do under his predecessor - Rebuild. Whether this relationship with the other 2/3's of the Holy John Trinity above him will succeed is definitely up for debate, but Coppy gets his first shot at being a major league general manager. We'll see how it works out.
The 11 Best Moments of the 2015 Braves Season
From a 5-0 start to a double-header sweep that also included Shelby Miller's winless streak coming to a close, 2015 had a lot of great moments even as the Braves suffered through one of their worst seasons since the 80's. There was walk-offs from Adonis Garcia and Maybin, magical comebacks like the one against the Giants, the return of Peter Moylan, and the continued magic of Andrelton Simmons at shortstop - plus many more. Even in a bad year, fans were given a lot to cheer about.
Starting Pitching Options for the Braves in Free Agency
The Braves don't often venture into the free agent market for starting pitching. Several years ago, Frank Wren tried to restock the rotation with free agents Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami, but since then, the rotation has often been stocked by homegrown talent, trades, and one-year pacts with guys like Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang. The good money is that the Braves won't spend much in the starting pitching market, especially considering Mike Minor looks like a guy they might bring back in 2016, but if they do go shopping, I found a few players who might help the Braves and possibly, at a good price.
Thanks for reading and remember to follow me on Twitter and bookmark both this blog and the one at About for future updates.
Sunday, October 11, 2015
Saturday, October 10, 2015
See ya, Todd Cunningham!
It was a bit of an odd development on Friday to learn that Todd Cunningham had been waived by the Atlanta Braves - let alone lost on waivers to the Angels. After all, it was kind of those moves that the Braves didn't have to make, chose to make, and it makes zero sense from the outside. It's like deciding to throw away the milk a week before its expiration date. Sure, you bought new milk to replace it and yeah, you opened the new milk when you were half-asleep and making cereal, but you could have found some use for the old milk, no? The Braves certainly have replacements for Cunningham. He was unlikely to be in the mix for 2015, would have been out of options, and if the Braves wish to have a fourth outfielder around, I'm sure Dian Toscano will eventually work out (totally not kidding). But to lose Cunningham now? A confusing move.
Cunningham wasn't the only guy the Braves outrighted after the year was over. Joining him were Ryan Kelly, Ryan Lavarnway, and Sugar Ray Marimon. It didn't seem like the Braves needed the 40-man room.
But in the end, Cunningham is gone. He was a second round choice in 2010 out of Jacksonville State. The 2010 draft will always have good value because it includes Andrelton Simmons, but of the first five players selected by the Braves, only Simmons and Cunningham have made it to the majors. Cunningham represented the old Braves way of high-floor guys with limited upside. For what it's worth, Gondeee made the contention recently that the Braves selected players like Cunningham so high because the draft was supposed to yield depth talent to help the major league club. In that way, they were successful, but they failed to produce a lot of impact talent. Cunningham was on the list of decent enough talent, but a limited ceiling. At his best, he would have been an okayish outfielder with decent enough on-base skills, little pop, and good enough base-stealing ability to threaten 20 steals in a season. That player has value, but typically won't be good enough to be a starter on a team with much hope of competing.
Cunningham skipped rookie ball after his 2010 selection and went to Rome. He was a mature and smart player so that made sense. He OPS'd .679, the first of three seasons (out of six) that he would fail to OPS .700. After the season, he would head to Lynchburg and though Cunningham missed time, he was part of Hillcats roster that started several future Braves (Joey Terdoslavich at first, Philip Gosselin at second, Simmons at short, Christian Bethancourt eventually at catcher). Cunningham played in 87 games and had a .701 OPS with 4 HR and 14 steals. After the year, the Braves sent him to the Arizona Fall League with Bethancourt, Terdo, and other Braves to play on the Surprise Saguaros with Wil Myers and Mike Olt. The latter hit 13 homers in 27 games. That's crazy.
After a pretty unspectacular AFL, Cunningham played in Mississippi during 2012 and had his best season. He hit .309 with a .364 OBP while adding 23 doubles, 6 triples, and three homers to go with his personal-best of 24 steals. With Michael Bourn heading to free agency, Cunningham had a little buzz as a possible replacement in center field, but that was shattered by the free agent signing ofB.J. Melvin Upton Jr. Cunningham went to Gwinnett to open 2013 and struggled. His OBP of .342 was fine, but it's hard to get excited about any player whose SLG is lower than his OBP, especially when Cunningham didn't have enough speed to make up for it. He did get his first trip to the majors and went 2-for-8.
2014 would be a trying season for Cunningham. He had the second-best year of his career and hit a solid .287 with a career-best eight homeruns, but couldn't get a look in the big leagues. Upton Jr. started 135 games in center while Emilio Bonifacio and Jordan Schafer started the rest of the games. Hardly the best collection of talent, yet Cunningham received no look. Not even a callup. Even when the season went to hell in the second half, the Braves didn't think Cunningham was deserving of a callup despite rosters expanding and being on the 40-man roster. It was a curious decision.
This season, Cunningham had a pretty ugly season with Gwinnett. His .663 OPS ranks as his worst minor league OPS and his full season mark is made worse by his major league numbers, but there was a time this year when Cunningham looked like he was deserving of an extended look. After Kelly Johnson hit the DL in mid-May, Cunningham was called up and his first four games went like this:
3-for-4, 2 RS, 2B, RBI, SB
3-for-4, 1 RS
2-for-4, 1 RS
1-for-3, 1 RS, 2B
It was a great, unsustainable, surprising start for Cunningham. Over his next 22 games, including 12 starts, Cunningham slashed .143/.226/.179 before being banished back to the minors. He was called up briefly in August for a game before returning to the Braves in September, but received just two starts the rest of the way, including a single to lead off the seventh in the season's final game. He scored on a Bourn hit and it was the final at-bat of his Braves career.
Overall, Cunningham hit .221 in 86 at-bats this year and has a major league slash of .223/.277/.266 in 101 PA. Losing him seems weird because it didn't seem like the Braves had to lose him right this second, but it doesn't look like much of a loss. That's not to say Cunningham can't occasionally have a season like Darren Bragg had in 2002 for the Braves when the failed prospect hit .269/.347/.401 with 3 HR in 240 PA. Cunningham seems like a well-liked guy so I kind of hope that he does, but the Braves were probably going to have to shuffle him off the 40-man roster at some point anyway.
You can keep up with Cunningham by following his Twitter.
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| G Fiume | Getty Images |
But in the end, Cunningham is gone. He was a second round choice in 2010 out of Jacksonville State. The 2010 draft will always have good value because it includes Andrelton Simmons, but of the first five players selected by the Braves, only Simmons and Cunningham have made it to the majors. Cunningham represented the old Braves way of high-floor guys with limited upside. For what it's worth, Gondeee made the contention recently that the Braves selected players like Cunningham so high because the draft was supposed to yield depth talent to help the major league club. In that way, they were successful, but they failed to produce a lot of impact talent. Cunningham was on the list of decent enough talent, but a limited ceiling. At his best, he would have been an okayish outfielder with decent enough on-base skills, little pop, and good enough base-stealing ability to threaten 20 steals in a season. That player has value, but typically won't be good enough to be a starter on a team with much hope of competing.
Cunningham skipped rookie ball after his 2010 selection and went to Rome. He was a mature and smart player so that made sense. He OPS'd .679, the first of three seasons (out of six) that he would fail to OPS .700. After the season, he would head to Lynchburg and though Cunningham missed time, he was part of Hillcats roster that started several future Braves (Joey Terdoslavich at first, Philip Gosselin at second, Simmons at short, Christian Bethancourt eventually at catcher). Cunningham played in 87 games and had a .701 OPS with 4 HR and 14 steals. After the year, the Braves sent him to the Arizona Fall League with Bethancourt, Terdo, and other Braves to play on the Surprise Saguaros with Wil Myers and Mike Olt. The latter hit 13 homers in 27 games. That's crazy.
After a pretty unspectacular AFL, Cunningham played in Mississippi during 2012 and had his best season. He hit .309 with a .364 OBP while adding 23 doubles, 6 triples, and three homers to go with his personal-best of 24 steals. With Michael Bourn heading to free agency, Cunningham had a little buzz as a possible replacement in center field, but that was shattered by the free agent signing of
2014 would be a trying season for Cunningham. He had the second-best year of his career and hit a solid .287 with a career-best eight homeruns, but couldn't get a look in the big leagues. Upton Jr. started 135 games in center while Emilio Bonifacio and Jordan Schafer started the rest of the games. Hardly the best collection of talent, yet Cunningham received no look. Not even a callup. Even when the season went to hell in the second half, the Braves didn't think Cunningham was deserving of a callup despite rosters expanding and being on the 40-man roster. It was a curious decision.
This season, Cunningham had a pretty ugly season with Gwinnett. His .663 OPS ranks as his worst minor league OPS and his full season mark is made worse by his major league numbers, but there was a time this year when Cunningham looked like he was deserving of an extended look. After Kelly Johnson hit the DL in mid-May, Cunningham was called up and his first four games went like this:
3-for-4, 2 RS, 2B, RBI, SB
3-for-4, 1 RS
2-for-4, 1 RS
1-for-3, 1 RS, 2B
It was a great, unsustainable, surprising start for Cunningham. Over his next 22 games, including 12 starts, Cunningham slashed .143/.226/.179 before being banished back to the minors. He was called up briefly in August for a game before returning to the Braves in September, but received just two starts the rest of the way, including a single to lead off the seventh in the season's final game. He scored on a Bourn hit and it was the final at-bat of his Braves career.
Overall, Cunningham hit .221 in 86 at-bats this year and has a major league slash of .223/.277/.266 in 101 PA. Losing him seems weird because it didn't seem like the Braves had to lose him right this second, but it doesn't look like much of a loss. That's not to say Cunningham can't occasionally have a season like Darren Bragg had in 2002 for the Braves when the failed prospect hit .269/.347/.401 with 3 HR in 240 PA. Cunningham seems like a well-liked guy so I kind of hope that he does, but the Braves were probably going to have to shuffle him off the 40-man roster at some point anyway.
You can keep up with Cunningham by following his Twitter.
Friday, October 9, 2015
Reviewing Hart's Trades: Gattis for Foltynewicz and Ruiz
The Braves have been active in John Hart's first season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.
With most of the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.
Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
The Trade
Evan Gattis and James Hoyt to the Astros for Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman, and Mike Foltynewicz. Take a look at my review of this deal from last January.
The Rationale
Oh, boy, did people hate this trade. The idea of trading an uber-popular, team-controlled, still cheap bat for a trio of prospects was hard enough, but coming on the heels of trades that sent Jason Heyward to the Cardinals and Justin Upton to the Padres shocked a number of people into anger.
The thing about this trade is that it may tell us a lot about how you view value in baseball. Those that were upset about this trade, outside of those simply steamed by the package Atlanta received, were often mad because the Braves had given up their last power bat outside of Freddie Freeman. They didn't do it because Gattis was closing in on free agency - he was team-controlled through 2018. They weren't trading him because he was too expensive - he made near the minimum. They were trading the "catcher" for one reason. The National League doesn't have a DH. And fans of the trade were convinced that the Braves did well to get something for a guy who was miscast as a catcher, woeful in left field, and underutilized as a bench bat.
The Astros obviously didn't have the same issue as the Braves. They could DH Gattis and enjoy his legendary power every day in their lineup. All it cost them was three prospects. Foltynewicz was a smart chip to gamble on both ways. The Braves could work on getting a third pitch with Folty while the Astros could feel comfortable with knowing that Folty was likely going to be limited to a reliever. Ruiz was a well thought-of third baseman who many thought would develop more power. The right-hand pitching Thurman had added velocity after being drafted and was still trying to harness it. Of course, the Astros were rich in prospects anyway. Losing a couple for them was well worth the risk to provide punch to their current lineup.
Short-Term Results
And Gattis did provide a lot of punch. He belted 27 homers as he was able to stay healthy without the rigors of playing in the field. His raw power (ISO) was actually a little lower than it had been as a Brave (about .234 vs. .217 with the 'Stros), but the big thing was the 153 games allowing him to amass some big counting stats like the homerun number and the well publicized strange amount of triples Gattis had. He tripled just once with the Braves before tripling 11 times as an Astro. To put that in context, the Braves as a team tripled just 18 times in 6,034 trips to the plate. The Nationals tripled just two more times than Gattis. But baseball's a weird game.
Outside of some big counting stats (he also drove in 88), Gattis's numbers weren't that dissimilar to his Braves days. He walked about 5% of the time and struck out about 3% less than he had as a Brave. His BABIP was lower than it was in 2014 by a good margin, but not much lower than it was in 2013 when he hit .243. But while everyone seemed to complain about the powerless Braves, who barely reached 100 homers this season, while Gattis was sending mammoth blast after mammoth blast out of the park, the fact was that Gattis was, outside of 71 innings in left field, a DH. The thing about being a DH is that your entire value is in your bat and while Gattis could hit homers and oddly triple at a Deion Sanders-like rate, he couldn't do a lot else. He on-based .285 during the year and finished the season with 99 RC+. Average is 100. That accounts for a 0.0 fWAR. 604 plate appearances.
Certainly, the Braves could have used the power, but Gattis, once you take away his value as a catcher, is a power bat who can't do anything else. He certainly can't play left field. 413.1 innings over his career out in left = -25.6 UZR/150. We know he can't catch. The Braves did the best they could with a guy that wouldn't have been a good DH even if they had a DH in the National League.
Before I forget, Hoyt spent the year in the Pacific Coast League. It was actually a pretty good season. He gave up nearly a hit an inning, but in the PCL, that ain't too bad. 12.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9. Had he not been involved in this deal, he certainly would have been up with the Braves at some point. Hoyt's a former independent league guy so I don't know how that relates to his Rule 5 eligibility, but he might be a target for a team if eligible and not protected this offseason.
Let's look at the Braves prospects. Mike Foltynewicz was pretty productive with Gwinnett, but struggled badly in Atlanta. The problem with Folty is that while he has great velocity, he still lacks the secondary options that keeps batters off balance. He rarely used his change-up this year and instead added a slider. It, like all of his pitches, didn't do the job in the majors. Certainly, there is a lot of potential here, but where are the results?
Speaking of results, it was a tough season for Rio Ruiz in 2015. He entered the season with a good deal of buzz after slashing .293/.387/.436 with Lancaster last year, but Lancaster and the California League as a whole helps inflate some offensive numbers. The 21 year-old went to Mississippi this year and struggled for most of the year. He had a few good runs (.804 OPS in June, .835 OPS in August with 3 of his 5 HR) but it was an underwhelming year. In his defense, he was super young for AA so it was an aggressive assignment by the Braves. There is still a lot of hope, but now with Hector Olivera in Atlanta, Ruiz seems blocked for the time being.
Finally, there was Andrew Thurman. The throw-in for the deal, Thurman was great to start the year. Outside of a six-run game, he gave up two or fewer runs in his other five starts heading into the mid-May bus accident that sidelined him until July. Once he got back, he was not nearly as sharp with the exception of a seven one-hit innings in a 6-0 win on August 2. The Braves gave him a late season push to Mississippi where he had a forgetable five starts.
Long-Term Outlook
I liked this deal from the Braves' perspective for 2015 before and after the season so I especially like this deal long-term. Sure, none of the prospects the Braves received performed at a high level. Foltynewicz struggled badly in the bigs before a blood clot ended his season. He should be healthy well before pitchers and catchers report, but even after that, where does Folty ultimately fit? Is he a starter? A reliever? Maybe a closer? Or is he just a thrower who got so many accolades on his potential vs. what he had shown? Even with all these valid concerns involving Folty, I'll take my chances because he has a better chance of helping the Braves in 2016 than Gattis would have. Just like Folty had a better chance to help the 2015 Braves than Gattis.
Ruiz and Thurman could also turn the corner. Even if Ruiz ultimately is blocked (the Braves could consider a position switch for either Olivera or Ruiz in that case), he has the top-end talent to be a starter at the keystone for a decade. If the Braves decide to stick with Olivera at third and don't see Ruiz as a LF, there is always a market for young 3B with good pop. As for Thurman, he has the pitchability to make something happen, but in a system with a lot of pitching talent, Thurman kind of disappears. If he gets on a good run, the Braves might try to sell high in a trade package, which would be smart.
And yes, we can't not mention the catcher position in Atlanta. Christian Bethancourt had an ugly year, Jose Briceno fell on his face, and Lucas Herbert is a number of years away. Even with that in mind, Gattis was not an option. You think the Astros started Jason Castro 102 times at catcher because they loved his pitch framing so much that his .648 OPS was acceptable? Or were so attached to Hank Conger and his .311 OBP? No, they used those two, along with a brief cameo from Max Stassi, because they were their only options to catch. The Astros, like the Braves before them, liked Gattis's bat and that was about it. So, while Bethancourt stunk and A.J. Pierzynski was a nice surprise, but is likely to see his numbers fall back to his more recent norms, it was a better situation for the Braves than bringing Gattis back. After all, a catcher's gotta catch and Gattis can't.
Of course, Bethancourt didn't get that memo this season either...
With most of the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.
Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
The Trade
Evan Gattis and James Hoyt to the Astros for Rio Ruiz, Andrew Thurman, and Mike Foltynewicz. Take a look at my review of this deal from last January.
The Rationale
Oh, boy, did people hate this trade. The idea of trading an uber-popular, team-controlled, still cheap bat for a trio of prospects was hard enough, but coming on the heels of trades that sent Jason Heyward to the Cardinals and Justin Upton to the Padres shocked a number of people into anger.
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| Mike Zarrilli | Getty Sports |
The Astros obviously didn't have the same issue as the Braves. They could DH Gattis and enjoy his legendary power every day in their lineup. All it cost them was three prospects. Foltynewicz was a smart chip to gamble on both ways. The Braves could work on getting a third pitch with Folty while the Astros could feel comfortable with knowing that Folty was likely going to be limited to a reliever. Ruiz was a well thought-of third baseman who many thought would develop more power. The right-hand pitching Thurman had added velocity after being drafted and was still trying to harness it. Of course, the Astros were rich in prospects anyway. Losing a couple for them was well worth the risk to provide punch to their current lineup.
Short-Term Results
And Gattis did provide a lot of punch. He belted 27 homers as he was able to stay healthy without the rigors of playing in the field. His raw power (ISO) was actually a little lower than it had been as a Brave (about .234 vs. .217 with the 'Stros), but the big thing was the 153 games allowing him to amass some big counting stats like the homerun number and the well publicized strange amount of triples Gattis had. He tripled just once with the Braves before tripling 11 times as an Astro. To put that in context, the Braves as a team tripled just 18 times in 6,034 trips to the plate. The Nationals tripled just two more times than Gattis. But baseball's a weird game.
Outside of some big counting stats (he also drove in 88), Gattis's numbers weren't that dissimilar to his Braves days. He walked about 5% of the time and struck out about 3% less than he had as a Brave. His BABIP was lower than it was in 2014 by a good margin, but not much lower than it was in 2013 when he hit .243. But while everyone seemed to complain about the powerless Braves, who barely reached 100 homers this season, while Gattis was sending mammoth blast after mammoth blast out of the park, the fact was that Gattis was, outside of 71 innings in left field, a DH. The thing about being a DH is that your entire value is in your bat and while Gattis could hit homers and oddly triple at a Deion Sanders-like rate, he couldn't do a lot else. He on-based .285 during the year and finished the season with 99 RC+. Average is 100. That accounts for a 0.0 fWAR. 604 plate appearances.
Certainly, the Braves could have used the power, but Gattis, once you take away his value as a catcher, is a power bat who can't do anything else. He certainly can't play left field. 413.1 innings over his career out in left = -25.6 UZR/150. We know he can't catch. The Braves did the best they could with a guy that wouldn't have been a good DH even if they had a DH in the National League.
Before I forget, Hoyt spent the year in the Pacific Coast League. It was actually a pretty good season. He gave up nearly a hit an inning, but in the PCL, that ain't too bad. 12.1 K/9, 2.0 BB/9, 0.2 HR/9. Had he not been involved in this deal, he certainly would have been up with the Braves at some point. Hoyt's a former independent league guy so I don't know how that relates to his Rule 5 eligibility, but he might be a target for a team if eligible and not protected this offseason.
Let's look at the Braves prospects. Mike Foltynewicz was pretty productive with Gwinnett, but struggled badly in Atlanta. The problem with Folty is that while he has great velocity, he still lacks the secondary options that keeps batters off balance. He rarely used his change-up this year and instead added a slider. It, like all of his pitches, didn't do the job in the majors. Certainly, there is a lot of potential here, but where are the results?
Speaking of results, it was a tough season for Rio Ruiz in 2015. He entered the season with a good deal of buzz after slashing .293/.387/.436 with Lancaster last year, but Lancaster and the California League as a whole helps inflate some offensive numbers. The 21 year-old went to Mississippi this year and struggled for most of the year. He had a few good runs (.804 OPS in June, .835 OPS in August with 3 of his 5 HR) but it was an underwhelming year. In his defense, he was super young for AA so it was an aggressive assignment by the Braves. There is still a lot of hope, but now with Hector Olivera in Atlanta, Ruiz seems blocked for the time being.
Finally, there was Andrew Thurman. The throw-in for the deal, Thurman was great to start the year. Outside of a six-run game, he gave up two or fewer runs in his other five starts heading into the mid-May bus accident that sidelined him until July. Once he got back, he was not nearly as sharp with the exception of a seven one-hit innings in a 6-0 win on August 2. The Braves gave him a late season push to Mississippi where he had a forgetable five starts.
Long-Term Outlook
I liked this deal from the Braves' perspective for 2015 before and after the season so I especially like this deal long-term. Sure, none of the prospects the Braves received performed at a high level. Foltynewicz struggled badly in the bigs before a blood clot ended his season. He should be healthy well before pitchers and catchers report, but even after that, where does Folty ultimately fit? Is he a starter? A reliever? Maybe a closer? Or is he just a thrower who got so many accolades on his potential vs. what he had shown? Even with all these valid concerns involving Folty, I'll take my chances because he has a better chance of helping the Braves in 2016 than Gattis would have. Just like Folty had a better chance to help the 2015 Braves than Gattis.
Ruiz and Thurman could also turn the corner. Even if Ruiz ultimately is blocked (the Braves could consider a position switch for either Olivera or Ruiz in that case), he has the top-end talent to be a starter at the keystone for a decade. If the Braves decide to stick with Olivera at third and don't see Ruiz as a LF, there is always a market for young 3B with good pop. As for Thurman, he has the pitchability to make something happen, but in a system with a lot of pitching talent, Thurman kind of disappears. If he gets on a good run, the Braves might try to sell high in a trade package, which would be smart.
And yes, we can't not mention the catcher position in Atlanta. Christian Bethancourt had an ugly year, Jose Briceno fell on his face, and Lucas Herbert is a number of years away. Even with that in mind, Gattis was not an option. You think the Astros started Jason Castro 102 times at catcher because they loved his pitch framing so much that his .648 OPS was acceptable? Or were so attached to Hank Conger and his .311 OBP? No, they used those two, along with a brief cameo from Max Stassi, because they were their only options to catch. The Astros, like the Braves before them, liked Gattis's bat and that was about it. So, while Bethancourt stunk and A.J. Pierzynski was a nice surprise, but is likely to see his numbers fall back to his more recent norms, it was a better situation for the Braves than bringing Gattis back. After all, a catcher's gotta catch and Gattis can't.
Of course, Bethancourt didn't get that memo this season either...
Thursday, October 8, 2015
Thursday Throwback - Blaine Boyer
(This column used to be called Random Ex-Brave.)
The Baby Braves.
2005's crew of kids who were either fresh-faced rookies or just beginning to establish themselves. Sure, the Braves still had Chipper Jones, but he only played 109 games that year. And yeah, Andruw Jones was a monster that season while John Smoltz anchored a rotation that included just three pitchers who made at least 21 starts. There were still big names, but the Braves capped off their legendary Streak with a 14th division title because of the kids.
Flash forward to 2015, few of those kids are still in the majors. Jeff Francoeur and Kelly Johnson, who often flanked Andruw in the outfield during the second half, are journeymen bench guys at this point. So, too, is Brayan Pena. Brian McCann is a superstar catcher, but he's the outlier. Where's Ryan Langerhans, Wilson Betemit, Andy Marte, Kyle Davies, Roman Colon, Macay McBride, or Joey Devine? Oh, and where exactly is Blaine Boyer?
Minnesota. In fact, you might be surprised to find out just how often Boyer pitched for the Twins in their desperate effort to return to the playoffs this season. I know I was. Boyer finished 2015 with 68 games, his first save since 2011, and a 1.25 WHIP. The number nerd in me looks at a 4.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 and thinks it would be shocking to see Boyer post another 2.49 ERA, but it's certainly not impossible. After all, he did it this year and considering what he's done to even get to this point, it's not a smart idea to count out Boyer.
Born July 11, 1981 in Atlanta as baseball endured a work stoppage, Boyer would later attend George Walton Comprehensive High School (fortunately, shortened to Walton High) in Cobb County. The school would later graduate Billy Burns, the fast outfielder for the A's, but the school's has more notable alumni like Nine Inch Nails and Guns N' Roses guitarist Robin Finck. Oh, and two of the founding members of The Black Crowes.
Boyer was part of a big 2000 class for the Braves in which they had 7 picks in the first 100 selections. Adam Wainwright was a nice pick with #29. After all, he acquired Stephen Drew's brother and we all remember that deal for how awesome it was. Scott Thorman was taken with the next pick, KJ selected #38, Aaron Herr #40, Bubba Nelson #51, Bryan Digby #70, and Boyer was picked with the #100 overall selection of the 2000 draft. And here I thought it was the Frank Wren years that didn't draft well. Ugh! In their defense, they did get Adam LaRoche in the 29th round.
Boyer spent a pair of years in rookie ball before being a member of the final Macon Braves squad in 2002. After fiddling with the starting game the first two seasons, he was moved to the pen with Macon and showed a strikeout arm, but the Braves wanted Boyer to try starting again so, for some reason, he was left in the SALLY League to be a member of the first Rome Braves team. He actually looked notably worse or at least more hittable, but was moved up the ladder finally in 2004. Myrtle Beach often served as a park that made average pitchers look like world beaters. Boyer finished the season with a 2.98 ERA in 28 starts. His K numbers shrunk, but the results looked nice. He opened 2005 in the minors with Mississippi and was struggling, but the 2005 Braves needed arms and he was called up for action on June 12.
After taking a loss in his first outing against the A's, Boyer quickly settled into the seventh inning guy ahead of Jim Brower and Chris Reitsma. Talk about the opposite of a shutdown relief squad. Boyer continued to perform well in his role and even threw two scoreless against the Giants on August 10 before getting his first major league win after Marcus Giles singled in Betemit in the 12th. Boyer got his ERA down to 1.71 after his seventh hold on September 3, but over his final ten games, the wheels came off. Of the 34 batters he faced, 19 reached base. His struggles over those final weeks led to him being left off the roster in favor of a guy like Devine, who would not do so hot in the playoffs. Have I cursed about Chris Burke today?
The bad taste in Boyer's mouth for how 2005 ended wouldn't be resolved anytime soon. He appeared just twice in 2006 because of injuries and in 2007, logged just five games in the majors as the Braves left him in Richmond to both start and relieve to little success.
Now it's time to remember how bad the Braves pitching was in 2008. Usually, I focus on the fact that Jeff Bennett, Chuck James, James Parr, Jo-Jo Reyes, and somebody pretending to be Tom Glavine started 52 games that year. What shouldn't be ignored is that Boyer appeared in 76 games and had a 5.88 ERA! In Atlanta's defense, he wasn't that terrible over the first three months (43 games, 3.63 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), but Boyer gave up three runs on the first day of July and stunk it up from there. Over 33 games, he had a 9.55 ERA. He blew five leads and blew in general, yet Cox said "give me Boyer." I blame John Schuerholz for that. And Cox. And El Nino.
For reasons unknown, Boyer was kept for the 2009 season. At this point, he had a career 5.06 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Guess they thought he needed more time. After three games and six runs allowed, even the Braves said, "Just because you're from Atlanta doesn't mean you get to be this bad." They traded him to the Cards for Brian Barton, who is a nominee for Barviest Career. 1 G, 0 PA, 1 inning in right field, 1 caught stealing. Well done, Brian. St. Louis tried Boyer in the pen, but he struggled and got hurt.
He was non-tendered after the season and we get our first "Boyer Goes International" leg of the tour. First stop - the Mets, where Boyer made the team coming out of spring training in 2011 and was atrocious in five bullpen appearances. Next stop - the Pirates, where Boyer had a 13.50 ERA in 11 AAA games. After being cut by his second team of the year, the Cards brought Boyer back and he started seven games in the minors. Three ugly ones in A+ ball, four REALLY ugly ones in AAA. They cut him, too. His minor league ERA in 2011 - 10.90. His MLB ERA - 10.80. There's got to be a police code joke in there somewhere.
After the season, Boyer went home and decided that he could continue to get his head beat in or he could head home, enjoy his family, and get a real estate license. The latter does sound inviting so that's exactly what Boyer did. But as players who retire voluntarily tend to do, Boyer had second thoughts and returned to pitch for the Kansas City Royals minor league system. The results were okayish at AAA, but he was still released in May. Boyer thought that this International Tour lacked an international flavor so he headed to Japan to sign with the Hanshin Tigers. He was damn productive for them, posting a 2.67 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.
His work in Japan earned him a contract with the Padres minor league system to open 2014 with former Baby Brave teammate, Francoeur. In the hard-hitting Pacific Coast League, Boyer held his own with a 3.10 ERA in 25 games, including 7 saves. The control, which had been such an issue for him for so long, disappeared. His work in El Paso got him called up in late May and after a brief demotion, he was up in the majors for good after June 12. He finished the year with a 3.57 ERA in 32 games, including a 1.8 BB/9. Still, the Padres moved on after the season and he went hunting for a new contract. It came in the form of a $750K offer from the Twins. He started slow, but after a mechanical adjustment from Everyday Eddie Guardado, the Twins bullpen coach, Boyer got rolling and went through a 22 game stretch between April 17 to June 3 where he allowed just one run in 23.2 ING.
Again, I'm dubious about Boyer's chances to repeat his 2015 success. But again, I could be wrong. To his credit, Boyer seems like a well-liked guy who has kept a great outlook during his struggles. I imagine there is some interest in retaining his services in Minnesota for 2015 and he probably has interest himself.
More Recent Throwbacks...
Juan Berenguer (1991-92)
Charlie Morton (2008)
Freddy Garcia (2013)
...or view ALL of them.
The Baby Braves.
2005's crew of kids who were either fresh-faced rookies or just beginning to establish themselves. Sure, the Braves still had Chipper Jones, but he only played 109 games that year. And yeah, Andruw Jones was a monster that season while John Smoltz anchored a rotation that included just three pitchers who made at least 21 starts. There were still big names, but the Braves capped off their legendary Streak with a 14th division title because of the kids.
 |
| Chris Graythen | Getty Sports |
Minnesota. In fact, you might be surprised to find out just how often Boyer pitched for the Twins in their desperate effort to return to the playoffs this season. I know I was. Boyer finished 2015 with 68 games, his first save since 2011, and a 1.25 WHIP. The number nerd in me looks at a 4.6 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9 and thinks it would be shocking to see Boyer post another 2.49 ERA, but it's certainly not impossible. After all, he did it this year and considering what he's done to even get to this point, it's not a smart idea to count out Boyer.
Born July 11, 1981 in Atlanta as baseball endured a work stoppage, Boyer would later attend George Walton Comprehensive High School (fortunately, shortened to Walton High) in Cobb County. The school would later graduate Billy Burns, the fast outfielder for the A's, but the school's has more notable alumni like Nine Inch Nails and Guns N' Roses guitarist Robin Finck. Oh, and two of the founding members of The Black Crowes.
Boyer was part of a big 2000 class for the Braves in which they had 7 picks in the first 100 selections. Adam Wainwright was a nice pick with #29. After all, he acquired Stephen Drew's brother and we all remember that deal for how awesome it was. Scott Thorman was taken with the next pick, KJ selected #38, Aaron Herr #40, Bubba Nelson #51, Bryan Digby #70, and Boyer was picked with the #100 overall selection of the 2000 draft. And here I thought it was the Frank Wren years that didn't draft well. Ugh! In their defense, they did get Adam LaRoche in the 29th round.
Boyer spent a pair of years in rookie ball before being a member of the final Macon Braves squad in 2002. After fiddling with the starting game the first two seasons, he was moved to the pen with Macon and showed a strikeout arm, but the Braves wanted Boyer to try starting again so, for some reason, he was left in the SALLY League to be a member of the first Rome Braves team. He actually looked notably worse or at least more hittable, but was moved up the ladder finally in 2004. Myrtle Beach often served as a park that made average pitchers look like world beaters. Boyer finished the season with a 2.98 ERA in 28 starts. His K numbers shrunk, but the results looked nice. He opened 2005 in the minors with Mississippi and was struggling, but the 2005 Braves needed arms and he was called up for action on June 12.
After taking a loss in his first outing against the A's, Boyer quickly settled into the seventh inning guy ahead of Jim Brower and Chris Reitsma. Talk about the opposite of a shutdown relief squad. Boyer continued to perform well in his role and even threw two scoreless against the Giants on August 10 before getting his first major league win after Marcus Giles singled in Betemit in the 12th. Boyer got his ERA down to 1.71 after his seventh hold on September 3, but over his final ten games, the wheels came off. Of the 34 batters he faced, 19 reached base. His struggles over those final weeks led to him being left off the roster in favor of a guy like Devine, who would not do so hot in the playoffs. Have I cursed about Chris Burke today?
The bad taste in Boyer's mouth for how 2005 ended wouldn't be resolved anytime soon. He appeared just twice in 2006 because of injuries and in 2007, logged just five games in the majors as the Braves left him in Richmond to both start and relieve to little success.
Now it's time to remember how bad the Braves pitching was in 2008. Usually, I focus on the fact that Jeff Bennett, Chuck James, James Parr, Jo-Jo Reyes, and somebody pretending to be Tom Glavine started 52 games that year. What shouldn't be ignored is that Boyer appeared in 76 games and had a 5.88 ERA! In Atlanta's defense, he wasn't that terrible over the first three months (43 games, 3.63 ERA, 1.19 WHIP), but Boyer gave up three runs on the first day of July and stunk it up from there. Over 33 games, he had a 9.55 ERA. He blew five leads and blew in general, yet Cox said "give me Boyer." I blame John Schuerholz for that. And Cox. And El Nino.
For reasons unknown, Boyer was kept for the 2009 season. At this point, he had a career 5.06 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Guess they thought he needed more time. After three games and six runs allowed, even the Braves said, "Just because you're from Atlanta doesn't mean you get to be this bad." They traded him to the Cards for Brian Barton, who is a nominee for Barviest Career. 1 G, 0 PA, 1 inning in right field, 1 caught stealing. Well done, Brian. St. Louis tried Boyer in the pen, but he struggled and got hurt.
He was non-tendered after the season and we get our first "Boyer Goes International" leg of the tour. First stop - the Mets, where Boyer made the team coming out of spring training in 2011 and was atrocious in five bullpen appearances. Next stop - the Pirates, where Boyer had a 13.50 ERA in 11 AAA games. After being cut by his second team of the year, the Cards brought Boyer back and he started seven games in the minors. Three ugly ones in A+ ball, four REALLY ugly ones in AAA. They cut him, too. His minor league ERA in 2011 - 10.90. His MLB ERA - 10.80. There's got to be a police code joke in there somewhere.
After the season, Boyer went home and decided that he could continue to get his head beat in or he could head home, enjoy his family, and get a real estate license. The latter does sound inviting so that's exactly what Boyer did. But as players who retire voluntarily tend to do, Boyer had second thoughts and returned to pitch for the Kansas City Royals minor league system. The results were okayish at AAA, but he was still released in May. Boyer thought that this International Tour lacked an international flavor so he headed to Japan to sign with the Hanshin Tigers. He was damn productive for them, posting a 2.67 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.
His work in Japan earned him a contract with the Padres minor league system to open 2014 with former Baby Brave teammate, Francoeur. In the hard-hitting Pacific Coast League, Boyer held his own with a 3.10 ERA in 25 games, including 7 saves. The control, which had been such an issue for him for so long, disappeared. His work in El Paso got him called up in late May and after a brief demotion, he was up in the majors for good after June 12. He finished the year with a 3.57 ERA in 32 games, including a 1.8 BB/9. Still, the Padres moved on after the season and he went hunting for a new contract. It came in the form of a $750K offer from the Twins. He started slow, but after a mechanical adjustment from Everyday Eddie Guardado, the Twins bullpen coach, Boyer got rolling and went through a 22 game stretch between April 17 to June 3 where he allowed just one run in 23.2 ING.
Again, I'm dubious about Boyer's chances to repeat his 2015 success. But again, I could be wrong. To his credit, Boyer seems like a well-liked guy who has kept a great outlook during his struggles. I imagine there is some interest in retaining his services in Minnesota for 2015 and he probably has interest himself.
More Recent Throwbacks...
Juan Berenguer (1991-92)
Charlie Morton (2008)
Freddy Garcia (2013)
...or view ALL of them.
Wednesday, October 7, 2015
Reviewing Hart's Trades: Kubitza for Sanchez
The Braves have been active in John Hart's first season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.
With the season in our rear view, I will continue to review each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.
Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
The Trade
Kyle Kubitza and Nate Hyatt to the Angels for Ricardo Sanchez. I took a look at this deal in January.
The Rationale
While the Braves made many moves last winter and in 2015 that were aimed at the future, this one was unique in that the Braves packaged a pair of prospects to get a prospect with higher potential. One of the stark differences between the Frank Wren-led Braves front office and the new one is how they graded talent. Whereas Wren valued the high-floor guys like Mike Minor and Jason Hursh, John Coppolella goes for the high ceiling players. The latter breeds a higher frequency of bombs, but also gives you a better chance to get an All-Starish player (that's not a word, is it?). In this trade, the Braves chose the brighter future over depth.
Ricardo Sanchez was probably a guy the Braves already liked. Signed out of the Venezuela in 2013, Sanchez was an impressive player in the Arizona Summer League. While most players are young in the AZL, very few turned 17 that April. He K'd over a batter an inning and didn't allow a homer. Sure, control was a problem, but 17 year-old kids aren't perfect. He had the mid-90's velocity you look for, but was lauded for the smooth mechanics to repeat the delivery. His curveball was considered a plus pitch and he was developing a change of pace to keep hitters off balance. As I said back in January, even an aggressive time table saw him reaching the majors in 3 to 4 years so this move was all about the future.
Meanwhile, losing Kubitza and Hyatt was a tough pill to swallow as both had the potential to help the Braves in 2015. Kubitza was coming off a 2014 season where he hit .295 with a .405 OBP, 50 extra base hits, and 21 walks for Mississippi. Considered a good enough defender to stick at third base, Kubitza looked like a promising option in a system that lacked any real corner infielders, nor a good Option B to Chris Johnson at the time. This made Kubitza a bigger prospect than he actually was. Even at his best, Kubitza was an average prospect who was a line drive hitter rather than one capable of 20 homers a year.
As for Hyatt, he was coming off a 73-K season with Lynchburg and a run in the Arizona Fall League. The righty was probably a year away, but at the rate the Braves had been pushing relievers through the system, it seemed possible that Hyatt could be pushing for a spot at some point in 2015.
Short-Term Results
To put it simply, this year looks like a Mulligan for both teams. Kubitza hit .271 in the Pacific Coast League with 45 doubles, but only blasted seven homers. The PCL is known for great offensive numbers so seeing your OPS fall about 80 points from the Southern League took a little of the glow away from Kubitza. He did make his major league debut, though he's struggled to handle major league pitching and still searching for his first extra base hit. Of more interest than the results in the batter's box is how Kubitza has began to move around. He played first base, left field, and even five innings in center field for Salt Lake in the PCL and has even gotten a couple of cameos at second base as the Angels look for options involving Kubitza.
Hyatt never got going in the Angels system. His control was never great, but it went from 3.9 BB/9 with the Hillcats last season to nearly a walk an inning this year. The K's are there, but he's been very hittable and rarely left a game unscathed. He never really turned the corner in his first year at AA and lefties hit a robust .304 with a .455 OBP against him.
But Sanchez wasn't any better for the Braves. On a fairly strict pitch count, Sanchez missed all of May after a woeful April. He seemed to get going in his first three starts of June as he surrendered just one earned run in 14 innings, including a six-inning scoreless outing for his only win of 2015 on June 18, but things shifted in his final three starts. He was placed on the DL after pitching four innings on July 8 and didn't pitch again.
Long-Term Outlook
Much like the recently profiled deal involving Manny Banuelos, what Coppolella and the rest of the Holy John Trinity saw was the ability to add a high-end talent for players they felt were replaceable. Atlanta aggressively moved to add a prospect with a B-grade because the future was more important in their eyes than the depth guys like Kubitza and Hyatt might provide.
Of course, Kubitza could develop into a full-time starter in the major leagues. While we over-inflated his value at the time, there was a reason guys like me were a bit excited about his future. But Kubitza, even if he does start 145 games in the majors, is not likely to be a guy you build around or never feel that you can probably do better than. Losing him when the Braves had Chris Johnson was difficult, but the Braves have since upgraded. *crossesfingers*
Trades are fluid beyond the move that we overanalyze. Sanchez might or might not become a decent pitcher in the majors. He still needs a change-up, needs to stay healthy, needs to learn more about pitching - basically what we say about all 18 year-olds. But his higher-end potential was worth the gamble.
With the season in our rear view, I will continue to review each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.
Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
The Trade
Kyle Kubitza and Nate Hyatt to the Angels for Ricardo Sanchez. I took a look at this deal in January.
The Rationale
 |
| Lisa Blumenfeld | Getty Sports |
Ricardo Sanchez was probably a guy the Braves already liked. Signed out of the Venezuela in 2013, Sanchez was an impressive player in the Arizona Summer League. While most players are young in the AZL, very few turned 17 that April. He K'd over a batter an inning and didn't allow a homer. Sure, control was a problem, but 17 year-old kids aren't perfect. He had the mid-90's velocity you look for, but was lauded for the smooth mechanics to repeat the delivery. His curveball was considered a plus pitch and he was developing a change of pace to keep hitters off balance. As I said back in January, even an aggressive time table saw him reaching the majors in 3 to 4 years so this move was all about the future.
Meanwhile, losing Kubitza and Hyatt was a tough pill to swallow as both had the potential to help the Braves in 2015. Kubitza was coming off a 2014 season where he hit .295 with a .405 OBP, 50 extra base hits, and 21 walks for Mississippi. Considered a good enough defender to stick at third base, Kubitza looked like a promising option in a system that lacked any real corner infielders, nor a good Option B to Chris Johnson at the time. This made Kubitza a bigger prospect than he actually was. Even at his best, Kubitza was an average prospect who was a line drive hitter rather than one capable of 20 homers a year.
As for Hyatt, he was coming off a 73-K season with Lynchburg and a run in the Arizona Fall League. The righty was probably a year away, but at the rate the Braves had been pushing relievers through the system, it seemed possible that Hyatt could be pushing for a spot at some point in 2015.
Short-Term Results
To put it simply, this year looks like a Mulligan for both teams. Kubitza hit .271 in the Pacific Coast League with 45 doubles, but only blasted seven homers. The PCL is known for great offensive numbers so seeing your OPS fall about 80 points from the Southern League took a little of the glow away from Kubitza. He did make his major league debut, though he's struggled to handle major league pitching and still searching for his first extra base hit. Of more interest than the results in the batter's box is how Kubitza has began to move around. He played first base, left field, and even five innings in center field for Salt Lake in the PCL and has even gotten a couple of cameos at second base as the Angels look for options involving Kubitza.
Hyatt never got going in the Angels system. His control was never great, but it went from 3.9 BB/9 with the Hillcats last season to nearly a walk an inning this year. The K's are there, but he's been very hittable and rarely left a game unscathed. He never really turned the corner in his first year at AA and lefties hit a robust .304 with a .455 OBP against him.
But Sanchez wasn't any better for the Braves. On a fairly strict pitch count, Sanchez missed all of May after a woeful April. He seemed to get going in his first three starts of June as he surrendered just one earned run in 14 innings, including a six-inning scoreless outing for his only win of 2015 on June 18, but things shifted in his final three starts. He was placed on the DL after pitching four innings on July 8 and didn't pitch again.
Long-Term Outlook
Much like the recently profiled deal involving Manny Banuelos, what Coppolella and the rest of the Holy John Trinity saw was the ability to add a high-end talent for players they felt were replaceable. Atlanta aggressively moved to add a prospect with a B-grade because the future was more important in their eyes than the depth guys like Kubitza and Hyatt might provide.
Of course, Kubitza could develop into a full-time starter in the major leagues. While we over-inflated his value at the time, there was a reason guys like me were a bit excited about his future. But Kubitza, even if he does start 145 games in the majors, is not likely to be a guy you build around or never feel that you can probably do better than. Losing him when the Braves had Chris Johnson was difficult, but the Braves have since upgraded. *crossesfingers*
Trades are fluid beyond the move that we overanalyze. Sanchez might or might not become a decent pitcher in the majors. He still needs a change-up, needs to stay healthy, needs to learn more about pitching - basically what we say about all 18 year-olds. But his higher-end potential was worth the gamble.
Monday, October 5, 2015
Top 30 Prospects, Post-2015 Edition - #30-21
Back in March, I looked at the Top 30 prospects in the system. In July, I updated the list. Now, with the season over, it seems like a good time to look at the Top 30 once more. This version will have the 2015 draftees make their inaugural appearance. The top international signings will be left out as I don't rank without game action. Like I did with the preseason list, I'll start with the bottom tier this week, rank prospects 11-20 next week, and in two weeks, I'll finish the list with the Top 10. Also like before, I'll give one more player for each position that could play a role in the picture in 2016 once the list is finished.
This list does not mean there won't be changes this winter as Arizona Fall, winter league, and moves lead to a new Top 30 in the spring. This list should be taken as a post-2015 list, not a pre-2016 one. We also have a number of graduations. Players that graduate include traded players and guys who have lost their rookie status. Their midseason rank is included: Matt Wisler (1), Jose Pereza (4), Garrett Fulenchek (21), Dian Toscano (22), Jordan Paroubeck (23), Daniel Castro (26). Further, a handful of players simply dropped out: Alec Grosser (15), Sean Godfrey (27), Ryan Kelly (28), Wes Parsons (29), Tanner Murphy (30). 11 new players made this list so you can imagine the kind of change you'll see.
Previous ranking legend
#20, #25 ...example ranking referring to pre-2015 rank and midseason update respectively.
- ...not ranked
+1 ...made the "And One More" list as a honorable mention
30. Isranel Wilson, OF, Grade: C
Previous Rank: -, -
I recently mentioned in my review of the Tommy La Stella/Arodys Vizcaino trade that the Braves picked up considerable international signing room from that move. Wilson was one of the late signing period pick-ups by the new scouting and development team. After turning 17 in March, Wilson made his professional debut in the Gulf Coast League as one of the Braves' aggressive moves in pushing talent. He hit just .222 for the season, but got on base at a high clip (.349) and belted ten homers. Consider that only six players in the system reached double figures in homers and Wilson did it in just 48 games.
29. Jordan Edgerton, 3B, Grade: C
Previous Rank: +1, 25
Edgerton had some decent press heading into this year as a guy the Braves system liked a lot after being picked in the ninth round out of UNC-Pembroke the previous year. He had looked good with Danville in 2014 with a .275 average, but this year seemed to get worse the longer it continued. After a .770 OPS in April and .771 OPS in June, Edgerton fell off the map the rest of the way. In 41 games, he managed just 27 hits, including just a half-dozen extra base hits (all doubles). He became lost at the plate, striking out 36 times to just four walks. Unlike a lot of prospects the Braves have, Edgerton wasn't young for the South Atlantic League. He barely made this ranking and will need a big 2016 to get back into the picture especially with Austin Riley on his tail.
28. Jason Hursh, RHP, Grade: C
Previous Rank: 15, 16
I've never been a big fan of Hursh, but kept him in my mid-teens ranking as a sign that there must be something here I just don't see. The righty with pitchability, but not much else, stagnated in Mississippi for the second consecutive year before getting moved to the pen in July. He seemed to show a little something extra once that happened. In nine games out of the pen, Hursh went 12 innings with 3 runs allowed, two walks and 9 K's. Not great marks, but good enough to get him a promotion to Gwinnett. He got roughed up in a few games, inflating his ERA to 5.40, but he also couldn't strike out anyone. Groundball relievers have some value and certainly, there is room to compete in the Braves bullpen for 2016, but I'm not high on Hursh taking a spot. Atlanta might try to Sean Gilmartin him this offseason and find a taker.
27. Dilmer Mejia, LHP, Grade: C
Previous Rank: 26, 24
Expectations were high for Mejia this season. Debuting as a 16 year-old in the Dominican Summer League last year, Mejia posted a 0.86 WHIP in 11 starts to go with a smooth 1.68 ERA. It was enough to see the Braves make the pretty rare decision to promote him in-season out of the DSL and give him some time in the Gulf Coast League to get his feet wet. The Nicaraguan lefty returned to the GCL to begin 2015 and a lot of eyes were keeping track of him, but seven games in, something didn't feel right. Control was good and he K'd six in four innings in his final appearance, but he was soon placed on the DL and never made it back. I'm not sure what exactly it was that got him DL'd, but I'm hopeful he rounds back into form for 2016.
26. Daniel Winkler, RHP, Grade: C
Previous Rank: +1, +1
Not a lot was made about the Braves' decision to select Winkler last winter in the Rule 5 draft. He would miss most, if not all, of 2015 and despite striking out a minor-league best 175 batters in 2013, his high-effort delivery and lack of overpowering stuff made him an okay prospect, but no one anyone was beating down the door for. However, Rule 5 picks are fun and small investments. If Winkler failed, the Braves didn't exactly waste much. Winkler would get activated off the DL a few weeks last month and made his debut by striking out two of the three Mets he faced on September 21. Six days later, he got a second shot, but gave up two solo homers in an inning. The Braves will still have to keep Winkler on the active roster if they want to keep him in 2016 and he'll have all winter and spring to make that decision a bit easier for Atlanta.
25. Johan Camargo, SS, Grade: C
Previous Ranks: 23, 20
Camargo is a smooth fielder like Daniel Castro, but he might never hit enough to reach Castro's level. After some impressive numbers in rookie ball between 2012-13, he's had an OBP around .310 with 45 extra base hits. He's one of the players that will get a look in Arizona this fall as a possible stepping stone to bigger things in 2016. A good run might even make him an intriguing trade piece.
24. Juan Yepez, 1B/3B, Grade: C
Previous Ranks: +1, +1
Yepez had a lot of doubters after being tabbed as Frank Wren's last significant international signing. The then-16 year-old out of Venezuela had power, but some questioned if he would hit enough or, even if he did, stay at the higher-value third base rather than get moved. The last criticism remains a concern as Yepez played just six games at third base in 2015, though some of that had to be because he often played on an infield with Austin Riley. Yepez did hit .299 in his first professional action between Danville and the Gulf Coast League with four homers and 16 doubles. An .822 OPS from a 17 year-old is impressive, especially when he never faced a pitcher younger than him. The Braves could still use him at third base (he started a game there in the last series), but it remains to be seen if he'll log significant time at the keystone. Either way, his power potential makes him an intriguing option that could easily jump into the Top 20 by the 2016 midseason update.
23. Mauricio Cabrera, RHP, Grade: C
Previous Ranks: 17, 19
With Cabrera, it's hard to separate the exciting potential in his right arm with the results on the field. He's a guy with triple digit velocity, but often little idea where it is headed. Before the influx of talent from last year's trades, Cabrera was a defacto Top 10 option for the system, but it would have been because of the state of the Braves system more than anything. He came on the scene in 2012 with a 2.97 ERA in 12 Danville starts, but since then, he has been hurt (a lot), ineffective (most of the time), and just maddeningly disappointing. That said, here's the good news. He's been shifted to the pen full-time, which is probably best. He turned 22 in late September so despite five years in the minors, he's still very young. He could be a guy that turns the corner and gets to the Braves bullpen next year. He could also stagnate in AA and become the right-hand version of Carlos Perez, who looked like he could be a star based on potential alone, but ultimately was cut. As for Cabrera, he will be among the Braves prospects in the Arizona Fall League. It could be a big campaign for him.
22. John Gant, RHP, Grade: C
Previous Rank: -, -
Part of the trade that sent Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe to the Mets, Gant was the weaker prospect at the time of the trade and spoiler alert, I still rank him as such. That didn't stop Gant from putting together a magical seven start binge to finish the 2015 season. In 40.1 ING, he K'd 43 and allowed just one homer to conclude 2015 with a 1.99 ERA as a member of the Mississippi Braves. Overall, 2014 was a rousing success for Gant, who began the season in high-A for six starts and started 18 games in AA. He had a 8.6 K/9 rate for the year. Still, I struggled to even rank him this high specifically because his game is dependent on deception and pitchability over natural stuff and talent. Nevertheless, he finished strong and will have a chance to get into the AAA picture next year.
21. Lucas Herbert, C, Grade: C
Previous Rank: -, -
If you're curious, four 2015 draftees make my Top 30 and the lowest ranked of those is Herbert at 21st. Kolby Allard's catcher at San Clemente High School, Herbert was the Braves' second rounder and received a bonus of over a million to sign with the Braves. Unfortunately, a torn meniscus ended his first professional season after just three games, though he did get his first homer. The Braves loved his ability behind the plate and there's enough offense here to get excited. Hopefully, he's able to get healthy and show what he's capable of in 2016.
And that's it for this week! 10 players down, 20 to go. Believe that someone was under-ranked? Over-ranked? Let me know in the comment section.
This list does not mean there won't be changes this winter as Arizona Fall, winter league, and moves lead to a new Top 30 in the spring. This list should be taken as a post-2015 list, not a pre-2016 one. We also have a number of graduations. Players that graduate include traded players and guys who have lost their rookie status. Their midseason rank is included: Matt Wisler (1), Jose Pereza (4), Garrett Fulenchek (21), Dian Toscano (22), Jordan Paroubeck (23), Daniel Castro (26). Further, a handful of players simply dropped out: Alec Grosser (15), Sean Godfrey (27), Ryan Kelly (28), Wes Parsons (29), Tanner Murphy (30). 11 new players made this list so you can imagine the kind of change you'll see.
Previous ranking legend
#20, #25 ...example ranking referring to pre-2015 rank and midseason update respectively.
- ...not ranked
+1 ...made the "And One More" list as a honorable mention
30. Isranel Wilson, OF, Grade: C
Previous Rank: -, -
I recently mentioned in my review of the Tommy La Stella/Arodys Vizcaino trade that the Braves picked up considerable international signing room from that move. Wilson was one of the late signing period pick-ups by the new scouting and development team. After turning 17 in March, Wilson made his professional debut in the Gulf Coast League as one of the Braves' aggressive moves in pushing talent. He hit just .222 for the season, but got on base at a high clip (.349) and belted ten homers. Consider that only six players in the system reached double figures in homers and Wilson did it in just 48 games.
 |
| Credit: Gondeee |
Previous Rank: +1, 25
Edgerton had some decent press heading into this year as a guy the Braves system liked a lot after being picked in the ninth round out of UNC-Pembroke the previous year. He had looked good with Danville in 2014 with a .275 average, but this year seemed to get worse the longer it continued. After a .770 OPS in April and .771 OPS in June, Edgerton fell off the map the rest of the way. In 41 games, he managed just 27 hits, including just a half-dozen extra base hits (all doubles). He became lost at the plate, striking out 36 times to just four walks. Unlike a lot of prospects the Braves have, Edgerton wasn't young for the South Atlantic League. He barely made this ranking and will need a big 2016 to get back into the picture especially with Austin Riley on his tail.
28. Jason Hursh, RHP, Grade: C
Previous Rank: 15, 16
I've never been a big fan of Hursh, but kept him in my mid-teens ranking as a sign that there must be something here I just don't see. The righty with pitchability, but not much else, stagnated in Mississippi for the second consecutive year before getting moved to the pen in July. He seemed to show a little something extra once that happened. In nine games out of the pen, Hursh went 12 innings with 3 runs allowed, two walks and 9 K's. Not great marks, but good enough to get him a promotion to Gwinnett. He got roughed up in a few games, inflating his ERA to 5.40, but he also couldn't strike out anyone. Groundball relievers have some value and certainly, there is room to compete in the Braves bullpen for 2016, but I'm not high on Hursh taking a spot. Atlanta might try to Sean Gilmartin him this offseason and find a taker.
27. Dilmer Mejia, LHP, Grade: C
Previous Rank: 26, 24
Expectations were high for Mejia this season. Debuting as a 16 year-old in the Dominican Summer League last year, Mejia posted a 0.86 WHIP in 11 starts to go with a smooth 1.68 ERA. It was enough to see the Braves make the pretty rare decision to promote him in-season out of the DSL and give him some time in the Gulf Coast League to get his feet wet. The Nicaraguan lefty returned to the GCL to begin 2015 and a lot of eyes were keeping track of him, but seven games in, something didn't feel right. Control was good and he K'd six in four innings in his final appearance, but he was soon placed on the DL and never made it back. I'm not sure what exactly it was that got him DL'd, but I'm hopeful he rounds back into form for 2016.
 |
| Joe Skipper | Getty Images |
Previous Rank: +1, +1
Not a lot was made about the Braves' decision to select Winkler last winter in the Rule 5 draft. He would miss most, if not all, of 2015 and despite striking out a minor-league best 175 batters in 2013, his high-effort delivery and lack of overpowering stuff made him an okay prospect, but no one anyone was beating down the door for. However, Rule 5 picks are fun and small investments. If Winkler failed, the Braves didn't exactly waste much. Winkler would get activated off the DL a few weeks last month and made his debut by striking out two of the three Mets he faced on September 21. Six days later, he got a second shot, but gave up two solo homers in an inning. The Braves will still have to keep Winkler on the active roster if they want to keep him in 2016 and he'll have all winter and spring to make that decision a bit easier for Atlanta.
25. Johan Camargo, SS, Grade: C
Previous Ranks: 23, 20
Camargo is a smooth fielder like Daniel Castro, but he might never hit enough to reach Castro's level. After some impressive numbers in rookie ball between 2012-13, he's had an OBP around .310 with 45 extra base hits. He's one of the players that will get a look in Arizona this fall as a possible stepping stone to bigger things in 2016. A good run might even make him an intriguing trade piece.
24. Juan Yepez, 1B/3B, Grade: C
Previous Ranks: +1, +1
Yepez had a lot of doubters after being tabbed as Frank Wren's last significant international signing. The then-16 year-old out of Venezuela had power, but some questioned if he would hit enough or, even if he did, stay at the higher-value third base rather than get moved. The last criticism remains a concern as Yepez played just six games at third base in 2015, though some of that had to be because he often played on an infield with Austin Riley. Yepez did hit .299 in his first professional action between Danville and the Gulf Coast League with four homers and 16 doubles. An .822 OPS from a 17 year-old is impressive, especially when he never faced a pitcher younger than him. The Braves could still use him at third base (he started a game there in the last series), but it remains to be seen if he'll log significant time at the keystone. Either way, his power potential makes him an intriguing option that could easily jump into the Top 20 by the 2016 midseason update.
 |
| Elsa | Getty Images |
Previous Ranks: 17, 19
With Cabrera, it's hard to separate the exciting potential in his right arm with the results on the field. He's a guy with triple digit velocity, but often little idea where it is headed. Before the influx of talent from last year's trades, Cabrera was a defacto Top 10 option for the system, but it would have been because of the state of the Braves system more than anything. He came on the scene in 2012 with a 2.97 ERA in 12 Danville starts, but since then, he has been hurt (a lot), ineffective (most of the time), and just maddeningly disappointing. That said, here's the good news. He's been shifted to the pen full-time, which is probably best. He turned 22 in late September so despite five years in the minors, he's still very young. He could be a guy that turns the corner and gets to the Braves bullpen next year. He could also stagnate in AA and become the right-hand version of Carlos Perez, who looked like he could be a star based on potential alone, but ultimately was cut. As for Cabrera, he will be among the Braves prospects in the Arizona Fall League. It could be a big campaign for him.
22. John Gant, RHP, Grade: C
Previous Rank: -, -
Part of the trade that sent Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe to the Mets, Gant was the weaker prospect at the time of the trade and spoiler alert, I still rank him as such. That didn't stop Gant from putting together a magical seven start binge to finish the 2015 season. In 40.1 ING, he K'd 43 and allowed just one homer to conclude 2015 with a 1.99 ERA as a member of the Mississippi Braves. Overall, 2014 was a rousing success for Gant, who began the season in high-A for six starts and started 18 games in AA. He had a 8.6 K/9 rate for the year. Still, I struggled to even rank him this high specifically because his game is dependent on deception and pitchability over natural stuff and talent. Nevertheless, he finished strong and will have a chance to get into the AAA picture next year.
21. Lucas Herbert, C, Grade: C
Previous Rank: -, -
If you're curious, four 2015 draftees make my Top 30 and the lowest ranked of those is Herbert at 21st. Kolby Allard's catcher at San Clemente High School, Herbert was the Braves' second rounder and received a bonus of over a million to sign with the Braves. Unfortunately, a torn meniscus ended his first professional season after just three games, though he did get his first homer. The Braves loved his ability behind the plate and there's enough offense here to get excited. Hopefully, he's able to get healthy and show what he's capable of in 2016.
And that's it for this week! 10 players down, 20 to go. Believe that someone was under-ranked? Over-ranked? Let me know in the comment section.
Friday, October 2, 2015
Reviewing Hart's Trades: Carp/Shreve for ManBan
The Braves have been active in John Hart's first season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.
With most of the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.
Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
The Trade
David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve to the Yankees for Manny Banuelos. I looked at the deal here.
The Rationale
This trade look a lot of people by surprise. The year of 2015 had just began and the Braves sent two relievers, including a pretty established one at that, to the Yankees for an often-injured left-hander who had last thrown a hundred innings in a season in 2011. Back then, Banuelos was a huge prospect. As the 2014 season came to a close, he was just a guy with some potential, but limited to about 100 innings over the previous three years.
But what the Braves saw with the help of Gordon Blakeley, who they had hired away from the Yankees, was a guy who wasn't properly valued by the Yankees considering his former status as a Top 50 prospect in baseball. It wasn't that he lost his stuff or that his control was especially bad - he simply was having trouble staying on the mound. If the Braves had any luck, ManBan would be able to increase his innings and show what he had.
For the Yankees, it was simple. Banuelos had the highest ceiling of the three players, but probably the toughest time reaching it. Meanwhile, the Yankees could add depth to their bullpen in Carp and Shreve. Carp had been excellent for the Braves. Over two years, he struck out 141 in 126.2 innings and rarely walked anyone. He was a bit homer prone, especially to Juan Uribe, but the Yankees were confident that they were getting a great middle reliever to aid in their re-worked pen. Shreve was a bit of icing on the cake. A lefty, Shreve had arrived in 2014 to the tune of 12.1 ING, 15 K's, and had not been embarrassed by righties. He held some minor platoon differences in the minors (more groundballs vs L), but there was some hope he could be a full inning pitcher.
The Braves showed in this trade that they felt if they found enough arms, some would stick and the bullpen would be fine. Regardless, a high-end pitcher with no major league experience had more value to them to a pair of relievers.
Short-Term Results
Carp never got going in the Bronx. His velocity was there, but he couldn't strike out anyone. He depended on K's to get outs, but now was pitching to contact - something that relievers in general are not very good at. His control, which was so good in Atlanta, got away from him. He couldn't get ahead of hitters and even when he did, he got roughed up. Carp was also terrible in big money situations. By June, the Yankees grew tired of him and sent him packing to the Nationals for a middle infielder named Tony Renda. A former second round-pick, Renda had a sub-.700 OPS in 2015 in AA.
Shreve stuck around and after spending some time in the minors, he became a pretty trustworthy member of the bullpen. In the first half, he appeared in 32 ballgames with an ERA of 2.02, over a K an inning, and a WHIP under 1.00. It looked like even after Carp bombed, Shreve would pick up the ball and become a solid addition for the Yankees. However, his numbers flipped in the second half. Since the beginning of August, he has surrendered 7 homers, walked 17 batters in 22 games, and gotten increasingly bad. His 2.79 ERA for the season looks nice, but he's lost the confidence of his manager, who only uses him in games they are already losing or extra innings forces his hand.
On the other hand, Banuelos was great earlier this season for Gwinnett. His 2.23 ERA was probably a bit nicer than it deserved to be considering his 1.23 WHIP, but he was productive and mostly healthy. The highlight of his season came on June 22 when he threw a 101-pitch two-hit shutout against Indianapolis. He faced just one over the minimum and struck out five. By July, he was in the majors. He started off well with 5.2 scoreless innings and 7 K's against the Nats, but a trip to the DL later that month sidelined him. He was able to get back for a couple of starts, but a bone spur in his elbow ended his 2015 season.
Long-Term Outlook
The short-term was rough as the bullpen struggled mightily without Carpenter and Shreve, who had both been expected to play significant roles for the Braves in 2015, but long-term, this deal still has a shot to be a winner. Banuelos still didn't have a completely healthy season and will likely still have an innings-limit in 2016, but he's got a good chance to be in the picture. The Braves liked Banuelos a lot and it's easy to see why. Now can he translate it into success? We shall see.
As for the Yankees, while they were able to get something from the hyper-desperate Nats for Carp, losing a guy with Banuelos's high-end potential for essentially a LOOGY is a tough price to pay. Banuelos isn't a sure thing so I wouldn't lost sleep if I'm the Yankees. After all, if he does become a star, you can buy him back on the free agent market later.
With most of the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.
Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
The Trade
David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve to the Yankees for Manny Banuelos. I looked at the deal here.
The Rationale
This trade look a lot of people by surprise. The year of 2015 had just began and the Braves sent two relievers, including a pretty established one at that, to the Yankees for an often-injured left-hander who had last thrown a hundred innings in a season in 2011. Back then, Banuelos was a huge prospect. As the 2014 season came to a close, he was just a guy with some potential, but limited to about 100 innings over the previous three years.
But what the Braves saw with the help of Gordon Blakeley, who they had hired away from the Yankees, was a guy who wasn't properly valued by the Yankees considering his former status as a Top 50 prospect in baseball. It wasn't that he lost his stuff or that his control was especially bad - he simply was having trouble staying on the mound. If the Braves had any luck, ManBan would be able to increase his innings and show what he had.
For the Yankees, it was simple. Banuelos had the highest ceiling of the three players, but probably the toughest time reaching it. Meanwhile, the Yankees could add depth to their bullpen in Carp and Shreve. Carp had been excellent for the Braves. Over two years, he struck out 141 in 126.2 innings and rarely walked anyone. He was a bit homer prone, especially to Juan Uribe, but the Yankees were confident that they were getting a great middle reliever to aid in their re-worked pen. Shreve was a bit of icing on the cake. A lefty, Shreve had arrived in 2014 to the tune of 12.1 ING, 15 K's, and had not been embarrassed by righties. He held some minor platoon differences in the minors (more groundballs vs L), but there was some hope he could be a full inning pitcher.
The Braves showed in this trade that they felt if they found enough arms, some would stick and the bullpen would be fine. Regardless, a high-end pitcher with no major league experience had more value to them to a pair of relievers.
Short-Term Results
Carp never got going in the Bronx. His velocity was there, but he couldn't strike out anyone. He depended on K's to get outs, but now was pitching to contact - something that relievers in general are not very good at. His control, which was so good in Atlanta, got away from him. He couldn't get ahead of hitters and even when he did, he got roughed up. Carp was also terrible in big money situations. By June, the Yankees grew tired of him and sent him packing to the Nationals for a middle infielder named Tony Renda. A former second round-pick, Renda had a sub-.700 OPS in 2015 in AA.
Shreve stuck around and after spending some time in the minors, he became a pretty trustworthy member of the bullpen. In the first half, he appeared in 32 ballgames with an ERA of 2.02, over a K an inning, and a WHIP under 1.00. It looked like even after Carp bombed, Shreve would pick up the ball and become a solid addition for the Yankees. However, his numbers flipped in the second half. Since the beginning of August, he has surrendered 7 homers, walked 17 batters in 22 games, and gotten increasingly bad. His 2.79 ERA for the season looks nice, but he's lost the confidence of his manager, who only uses him in games they are already losing or extra innings forces his hand.
On the other hand, Banuelos was great earlier this season for Gwinnett. His 2.23 ERA was probably a bit nicer than it deserved to be considering his 1.23 WHIP, but he was productive and mostly healthy. The highlight of his season came on June 22 when he threw a 101-pitch two-hit shutout against Indianapolis. He faced just one over the minimum and struck out five. By July, he was in the majors. He started off well with 5.2 scoreless innings and 7 K's against the Nats, but a trip to the DL later that month sidelined him. He was able to get back for a couple of starts, but a bone spur in his elbow ended his 2015 season.
Long-Term Outlook
The short-term was rough as the bullpen struggled mightily without Carpenter and Shreve, who had both been expected to play significant roles for the Braves in 2015, but long-term, this deal still has a shot to be a winner. Banuelos still didn't have a completely healthy season and will likely still have an innings-limit in 2016, but he's got a good chance to be in the picture. The Braves liked Banuelos a lot and it's easy to see why. Now can he translate it into success? We shall see.
As for the Yankees, while they were able to get something from the hyper-desperate Nats for Carp, losing a guy with Banuelos's high-end potential for essentially a LOOGY is a tough price to pay. Banuelos isn't a sure thing so I wouldn't lost sleep if I'm the Yankees. After all, if he does become a star, you can buy him back on the free agent market later.
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