The Atlanta Braves remain active on the minor league free agent front. Because they own all but their high-A team, the Braves are routinely busy trying to add depth to their system. I've twice already went over minor league signings so far this offseason on the 12th and 18th. Chances are I'll be doing this again right before or right after Thanksgiving. It's important to note that the likelihood of any of these players inking minor league contracts ever playing for the Braves is minimal, but I find the additions often interesting if only because it means new players to fill out the minor league boxscores during the season.
As far as I can tell, none of these signings will get an invite to spring training.
RHP Jake Brigham - 26 years old - Formerly of the Texas, Chicago (NL), and Pittsburgh organizations.
Despite being heavily scouted in the Orlando area and putting up great numbers with Central Florida Christian Academy, Brigham wasn't selected until the sixth round in 2006. This was likely because he had no real wow factor. He possessed velocity around 90 mph and secondary offerings that weren't graded out high. Brigham did make some quick progression after signing, but saw his entire 2009 season wiped out by Tommy John surgery. He would go on to struggle from there. Some of that was due to the TJS, some of it comes down to the notoriously hitter leagues like the California League, and some of it simply because he wasn't good enough. The Rangers still thought enough of him to protect him ahead of the 2012 Rule 5 draft and the Cubs thought enough of him to acquire him at the deadline as part of the Geovany Soto trade. A couple of months later, the Cubs traded him back to the Rangers, where he would spend the 2013 season. Last year, he signed with the Pirates organization and he did post some of his best professional numbers, but even they are underwhelming.
Overall, Brigham is a organizational filler for Gwinnett. Tough to get a real read on him considering available scouting reports are few and far between and most of them are 2-3 years old. What appears clear is that he won't get an exorbitant amount of strikeouts, but won't walk too many either. He's always been vulnerable to home runs and that might be helped by the Gwinnett park. The one thing he has done pretty well since coming back from Tommy John is stay on the mound as he's thrown at least 89 innings in each season and has surpassed 125 innings three times in the six years since TJS.
RHP Jairo Heredia - 25 years old - Formerly of the New York (AL) organization.
A recent teammate of new members to the organization, pitcher Francisco Rondon and outfielder Zoilo Almonte, Heredia has been around for quite some time despite being only 25. He started his career in 2007 in the Gulf Coast League as a 17 year-old and had some real prospect love after 2009 when he tossed a double-header shortened seven-inning shutout at high-A ball despite being just 19. Former manager Jody Reed even did Heredia a disservice by calling him "Pedro Jr." in reference to Pedro Martinez. Set the bar high much? Since 2009, he has shuffled between starter and reliever and struggled to stay healthy, including missing all of 2012. Over the last two years, Heredia has made six appearances in AAA, including one start. There is some intrigue here because he has a strikeout arm and the control (2.8 BB/9) isn't prohibitive, but he's been too hittable and too prone to homers.
In 2013, a blog focusing on the Penn League mentioned that his velocity was inconsistent, sometimes coming in around 92 and other innings, hitting closer to 86. I've read that he has a max-effort delivery that might be difficult to repeat each pitch, which could explain that. He also throws a change-up that is difficult on young hitters, but easier to time for more seasoned players. In addition, there is a curveball that isn't very consistent. Overall, Heredia's strikeout numbers do give the impression of some potential, but will he be able to take that potential and turn it into more than a mediocre minor league resume? So far, it doesn't look good.
1B/3B Travis Mattair - 25 years old - Formerly of the Philadelphia and Cincinnati organizations.
Most of the signings so far have been pitchers with the occasional hitter sprinkled in and Mattair is today's only hitter. A surprise second-round pick by the Phillies in the 2007 draft, Mattair reminds me of Joe Leonard, another tall corner infielder who should probably have more power just based on their physical stature. I'm sure the Phillies thought they would get more out of Mattair. Interestingly, Mattair ended up missing the 2010 season as he went to college to play basketball with Boise State. "Moose" quickly came to the conclusion that baseball was his better chance to get to the top professional league, especially after being told he would likely ride the bench for a second-tier basketball program.
He joined the Reds organization as part of the minor league portion of the Rule 5 draft and spent the last three years trying to impress. He did hit well in 2012 at high A Baskersfield, posting an .809 OPS, but as I said with Brigham, the California League is known for being kind to hitters. Over the last two years, Mattair has slashed .240/.309/.375 with Pensacola in the Southern League. Clearly, the Braves got a good look at him playing against the Mississippi Braves and saw enough talent to sign Mattair for depth purposes. He played mostly first base last year, but has spent most of his career across the diamond. It's an interesting story because of the basketball ties, but Mattair's offensive skillset won't amaze anyone.
Sunday, November 23, 2014
Saturday, November 22, 2014
A Look At the New 40-Man Roster Guys
Yesterday, I talked about the decision Wednesday to designate Jonny Venters and Ramiro Pena for assignment. That decision was made, at least in part, so that the Braves could free up room on their 40-man roster ahead of the Rule 5 draft. For a quick primer on the upcoming Rule 5, check out Fangraphs' explanation. Protecting young talent from the opportunistic general managers of other organizations is hugely important, though many who are protected one winter don't last all that long on the 40-man roster. Last year, the Braves protected Elmer Reyes, Carlos Perez, and Luis Vasquez. Perez was outrighted last September and is eligible for this year's draft while Vasquez was cut at the end of July. Reyes remains and with Pena moving on, his opportunity to make the 2015 roster improves.
It is currently unknown how many of those players added to the 40 man roster this year will play a role either in 2015 or the years after. A couple of them are true major prospects while a few others are interesting projects.
RHP Mauricio Cabrera - Though the 21 year-old righty has never pitched above A-ball, the Braves are well aware of his potential and moved to protect him. He has a little bit of violence in his delivery, but can touch 99 mph with his heater, though it sits more comfortably in the 95 mph range. A forearm strain took away months of his first season at A+ last year and I'm not sure if the Braves are willing to go with him in AA to open 2015. Also not sure if they see him as a starter or reliever. Similar to Arodys Vizcaino when the latter was moving north in the system. He'll get here faster as a reliever, but would have more value as a starter. His plus slider and improving change-up give the Braves reason to move him back to the rotation in 2015, but we'll know more on how they see him in the spring. Even though he appears to be a few years away, the Braves were smart to act now because a team with no hope of competing would have taken a chance on Cabrera to be a reliever in 2015.
RHP Brandon Cunniff - Probably the most intriguing choice of the group that joined the 40-man on Wednesday. Cunniff was a 27th round selection by the Marlins in 2010 out of Cal State-San Bernardino. The righty was solid in his only year in the Marlins' organization, but like many late round selections that don't wow, Cunniff was cut because his velocity was down over when the Marlins drafted him, plus they probably were committed to higher drafted or hyped players. He became a member of the Frontier League, an independent organization operating in the mid-west. Pitching for River City and Southern Illinois, Cunniff kept his dream alive until the Braves called during the 2013 season. He finished the year with 20 games in Lynchburg before a return trip to open 2014. The stay in the 'Burg didn't last long as he dominated Carolina League hitters, prompting a quick promotion to Mississippi where he posted a 2.98 FIP and 8.54 K/9. Although he probably won't be another fireballer with ridiculous K numbers, he's a smart and determined pitcher with velocity in the early 90's who is also close to competing in the majors. His age of 26 limits some of the hype, but all that matters is performance. In an Atlanta Braves' bullpen that is far from certain, Cunniff could have a shot to make the jump this spring.
LHP Yean Carlos Gil - While Cunniff is probably the most intriguing, Gil is probably the most confusing choice. Gil was a pretty notable international prospect when the Braves inked the southpaw, but had seemed to fallen out of prospect circles following his 2012 TJ Surgery. The soon-to-be 24 year-old was able to post a full season last year for Rome and does have tremendous control (1.9 BB/9) and was only burned for three homers in 126.1 ING. On a bad Rome Braves team last year, Gil was one of the few highlights. He limited left-handed hitters last season to a .220/.251/.286 clip, which might lead one to think he could have a future as a specialist out of the pen. That said, he's pretty far away and other pitchers were closer.
RHP Tyrell Jenkins - Not much else remains to be said about Jenkins after last week's trade from the Cardinals. Clearly, the Braves were going to protect him because he is one of their top prospects immediately following the trade.
3B Kyle Kubitza - I'm most definitely on the Kubitza bandwagon and have been for over a year now. The bandwagon's gotten a good deal more crowded after Kubitza's 2014 season (.295/.405/.470) and with the struggles of Chris Johnson in the majors. And with reports that the Braves are seeking out a potential platoon partner for Johnson, one question remains. Why not Kubitza? Probably because the Braves see him as needing more time to develop, but Kubitza could push Johnson to the bench by 2016 with his combination of athleticism (21 steals), medium grade power, and on-base skills. Reports on his defense are mixed and often with fringy guys, that's what we come to expect, but chances are good that he won't be any worse than Johnson. That's not to say that there aren't question marks and those question marks are why Kubitza is a good organizational prospect, but won't land on anybody's Top 100 prospects. His contact rate is sub-standard, which leads to a lot of strikeouts in the 25% range. Kubitza doesn't hit for much power (.170ish ISO) and his BABIP of .401 last season isn't sustainable meaning his batting average is sure to drop. Also, he's already 24. The prevailing wisdom is that if Kubitza was going to be much of a prospect, he would already be one. As is, he's still the Braves best option at third from their minor league system and considering what they already have at third, that's meaningful.
2B Jose Peraza - Adding him to the 40-man was a mere formality at this point. The bigger question is will the Braves seek out a quality stopgap to hold up Peraza or will they settle on an option that Peraza could easily surpass by midseason, if not sooner. I'm looking at you, Mark Ellis. At this point, we don't know, but if Peraza's skillset plays up in the majors, as many of us believe, he will quickly settle into the first "traditional leadoff" guy the Braves have had stick around for a few years since Rafael Furcal. Like most players, Peraza does lack a few skills. He doesn't walk and has no pop in his bat. His value comes in hitting .300, stealing a lot of bases, and playing tremendous defense. He has done that in the minors and there is enough reason to believe he will do just that in the majors. Peraza is defensively sound enough to play shortstop for almost every team in the league, but the Braves have the best guy in the game already doing that. As is, Peraza could provide the Braves with a Gold Glove counterpart and the best 4-6 combination on defense in the game.
RHP Williams Perez - This, like Gil's selection, is probably most interesting to me because of who it meant the Braves didn't keep. Unlike Gil, Perez wasn't a big international pick-up, but he's continued to progress in his short time in the system, reaching AA for 133 innings in his second season above rookie ball. This certain burst followed three years state-side in rookie ball, but a change to throwing his sinker as his primary pitch put Perez on the right track. He'll never amaze you with his pitching, but will impress you with his pitchability. Still, his ceiling is projected as a fifth starter or Kevin Gryboski type who comes in to try to get a inning-ending groundball (or at least, that's what Bobby Cox thought Gryboski was doing).
Like I said, Gil and Perez were kept over other notable players. Cody Martin stands out, but the Braves probably thought both of the keepers had more potential than just being a fifth starter as Martin has. Gil and Perez could easily be seen as potential relievers. Some have pondered why a guy who had trade rumors attached to him around the deadline would be kept unprotected, but I didn't buy that the interest in Martin was very high. J.R. Graham is also a noteworthy omission. It seems like the Braves have soured on Graham as the latter has lost velocity and stagnated in AA.
Edward Salcedo might also be an interesting un-protected player. Obviously, Salcedo has yet to even come close to becoming the guy that was supposed to be the next great Braves international prospect. He's OPS'd just .684 in 586 minor league games and has lost positional importance, going from short-to-third-to-right field last season. He's still an intriguing player because anyone who was that hyped must have had a reason. Of course, production matters and that's where Salcedo has failed to this point. At his age and level, there is little reason to think he'll suddenly get it and start to produce, but stranger things have happened. I guess.
It is currently unknown how many of those players added to the 40 man roster this year will play a role either in 2015 or the years after. A couple of them are true major prospects while a few others are interesting projects.
RHP Mauricio Cabrera - Though the 21 year-old righty has never pitched above A-ball, the Braves are well aware of his potential and moved to protect him. He has a little bit of violence in his delivery, but can touch 99 mph with his heater, though it sits more comfortably in the 95 mph range. A forearm strain took away months of his first season at A+ last year and I'm not sure if the Braves are willing to go with him in AA to open 2015. Also not sure if they see him as a starter or reliever. Similar to Arodys Vizcaino when the latter was moving north in the system. He'll get here faster as a reliever, but would have more value as a starter. His plus slider and improving change-up give the Braves reason to move him back to the rotation in 2015, but we'll know more on how they see him in the spring. Even though he appears to be a few years away, the Braves were smart to act now because a team with no hope of competing would have taken a chance on Cabrera to be a reliever in 2015.
RHP Brandon Cunniff - Probably the most intriguing choice of the group that joined the 40-man on Wednesday. Cunniff was a 27th round selection by the Marlins in 2010 out of Cal State-San Bernardino. The righty was solid in his only year in the Marlins' organization, but like many late round selections that don't wow, Cunniff was cut because his velocity was down over when the Marlins drafted him, plus they probably were committed to higher drafted or hyped players. He became a member of the Frontier League, an independent organization operating in the mid-west. Pitching for River City and Southern Illinois, Cunniff kept his dream alive until the Braves called during the 2013 season. He finished the year with 20 games in Lynchburg before a return trip to open 2014. The stay in the 'Burg didn't last long as he dominated Carolina League hitters, prompting a quick promotion to Mississippi where he posted a 2.98 FIP and 8.54 K/9. Although he probably won't be another fireballer with ridiculous K numbers, he's a smart and determined pitcher with velocity in the early 90's who is also close to competing in the majors. His age of 26 limits some of the hype, but all that matters is performance. In an Atlanta Braves' bullpen that is far from certain, Cunniff could have a shot to make the jump this spring.
LHP Yean Carlos Gil - While Cunniff is probably the most intriguing, Gil is probably the most confusing choice. Gil was a pretty notable international prospect when the Braves inked the southpaw, but had seemed to fallen out of prospect circles following his 2012 TJ Surgery. The soon-to-be 24 year-old was able to post a full season last year for Rome and does have tremendous control (1.9 BB/9) and was only burned for three homers in 126.1 ING. On a bad Rome Braves team last year, Gil was one of the few highlights. He limited left-handed hitters last season to a .220/.251/.286 clip, which might lead one to think he could have a future as a specialist out of the pen. That said, he's pretty far away and other pitchers were closer.
RHP Tyrell Jenkins - Not much else remains to be said about Jenkins after last week's trade from the Cardinals. Clearly, the Braves were going to protect him because he is one of their top prospects immediately following the trade.
3B Kyle Kubitza - I'm most definitely on the Kubitza bandwagon and have been for over a year now. The bandwagon's gotten a good deal more crowded after Kubitza's 2014 season (.295/.405/.470) and with the struggles of Chris Johnson in the majors. And with reports that the Braves are seeking out a potential platoon partner for Johnson, one question remains. Why not Kubitza? Probably because the Braves see him as needing more time to develop, but Kubitza could push Johnson to the bench by 2016 with his combination of athleticism (21 steals), medium grade power, and on-base skills. Reports on his defense are mixed and often with fringy guys, that's what we come to expect, but chances are good that he won't be any worse than Johnson. That's not to say that there aren't question marks and those question marks are why Kubitza is a good organizational prospect, but won't land on anybody's Top 100 prospects. His contact rate is sub-standard, which leads to a lot of strikeouts in the 25% range. Kubitza doesn't hit for much power (.170ish ISO) and his BABIP of .401 last season isn't sustainable meaning his batting average is sure to drop. Also, he's already 24. The prevailing wisdom is that if Kubitza was going to be much of a prospect, he would already be one. As is, he's still the Braves best option at third from their minor league system and considering what they already have at third, that's meaningful.
2B Jose Peraza - Adding him to the 40-man was a mere formality at this point. The bigger question is will the Braves seek out a quality stopgap to hold up Peraza or will they settle on an option that Peraza could easily surpass by midseason, if not sooner. I'm looking at you, Mark Ellis. At this point, we don't know, but if Peraza's skillset plays up in the majors, as many of us believe, he will quickly settle into the first "traditional leadoff" guy the Braves have had stick around for a few years since Rafael Furcal. Like most players, Peraza does lack a few skills. He doesn't walk and has no pop in his bat. His value comes in hitting .300, stealing a lot of bases, and playing tremendous defense. He has done that in the minors and there is enough reason to believe he will do just that in the majors. Peraza is defensively sound enough to play shortstop for almost every team in the league, but the Braves have the best guy in the game already doing that. As is, Peraza could provide the Braves with a Gold Glove counterpart and the best 4-6 combination on defense in the game.
RHP Williams Perez - This, like Gil's selection, is probably most interesting to me because of who it meant the Braves didn't keep. Unlike Gil, Perez wasn't a big international pick-up, but he's continued to progress in his short time in the system, reaching AA for 133 innings in his second season above rookie ball. This certain burst followed three years state-side in rookie ball, but a change to throwing his sinker as his primary pitch put Perez on the right track. He'll never amaze you with his pitching, but will impress you with his pitchability. Still, his ceiling is projected as a fifth starter or Kevin Gryboski type who comes in to try to get a inning-ending groundball (or at least, that's what Bobby Cox thought Gryboski was doing).
Like I said, Gil and Perez were kept over other notable players. Cody Martin stands out, but the Braves probably thought both of the keepers had more potential than just being a fifth starter as Martin has. Gil and Perez could easily be seen as potential relievers. Some have pondered why a guy who had trade rumors attached to him around the deadline would be kept unprotected, but I didn't buy that the interest in Martin was very high. J.R. Graham is also a noteworthy omission. It seems like the Braves have soured on Graham as the latter has lost velocity and stagnated in AA.
Edward Salcedo might also be an interesting un-protected player. Obviously, Salcedo has yet to even come close to becoming the guy that was supposed to be the next great Braves international prospect. He's OPS'd just .684 in 586 minor league games and has lost positional importance, going from short-to-third-to-right field last season. He's still an intriguing player because anyone who was that hyped must have had a reason. Of course, production matters and that's where Salcedo has failed to this point. At his age and level, there is little reason to think he'll suddenly get it and start to produce, but stranger things have happened. I guess.
Friday, November 21, 2014
Quick Shots: Should Justin Upton have more value than Jason Heyward?
According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Braves are at least considering dealing outfielder Justin Upton on the heels of Monday's trade of fellow outfielder Jason Heyward. The kicker is that the Braves front office is pushing for a greater return than they got for Heyward. If one year of Heyward and two years or Jordan Walden bring back four years of Shelby Miller and a prospect capable of jumping from the top ten of the system he was traded from to the top ten of the system he is gong to...what more could the Braves possibly expect for Upton?
The article states that both teams from Texas have been interested along with others that were unnamed. Sherman also brings up the Mariners and David O'Brien notes that Taijuan Walker isn't off the table from the Mariners' point of view, but might require more than just a straight swap. It's worth mentioning that Upton took the Mariners off his no-trade list this offseason, opening up an avenue where a deal with Seattle could be worked out.
However, what intrigues me the most from the Sherman piece is that the Braves have a steeper price on Upton than for Heyward, which was fairly significant. Both are set to be free agents after 2015. While Heyward is younger, the difference is only two years and Upton won't be 28 until late August. Should the Braves expect more for Upton?
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs states no and says he can do so without mentioning defense, but I do think he's missing one thing. Let's look at wOBA.
Here it becomes murkier. Both players saw a decline in their age-24 years. Upton improved beyond that over the last two years, years that Heyward has yet to play. He, too, could see an increase. But where I think that becomes more important comes in talking about contracts, not so much about trade value as of right now because both are, again, free agents after 2015.
Now, once we include defense and baserunning, we come to a conclusion that the more valuable player is Heyward, but general managers often don't concern themselves with stupid nerd stats like WAR. They are looking at power, specifically right-handed power. So, when we look at the last three seasons, we see that Heyward ranks sixth among all outfielders in fWAR. Upton ranks 24th. But Upton's 73 homers in that time frame rank 11th while Heyward ranks 32nd, one spot behind Raul Ibanez. Power means something in a game that has saw nearly 500 fewer homeruns last season compared to 2013 and roughly 900 fewer homeruns compared to 2009.
Power, specifically right-handed power, means so much that Billy Butler got $30M. So, knowing that, the Braves cannot be wrong in wanting more for Upton and chances are good that they find it. While as a sabermetric fan, I think Heyward is the better player for the future and his all-around skills are deserving of immense praise, I don't agree with Cameron that Upton shouldn't cost more. The fact is that when you look at their comparable offensive numbers and the state of the game today, the Braves would be idiotic to accept any less. For a team that doesn't look to be competing in 2015, that's at least exciting as trading Upton could make the climb back up the standings shorter considering his value in today's market.
The article states that both teams from Texas have been interested along with others that were unnamed. Sherman also brings up the Mariners and David O'Brien notes that Taijuan Walker isn't off the table from the Mariners' point of view, but might require more than just a straight swap. It's worth mentioning that Upton took the Mariners off his no-trade list this offseason, opening up an avenue where a deal with Seattle could be worked out.
However, what intrigues me the most from the Sherman piece is that the Braves have a steeper price on Upton than for Heyward, which was fairly significant. Both are set to be free agents after 2015. While Heyward is younger, the difference is only two years and Upton won't be 28 until late August. Should the Braves expect more for Upton?
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs states no and says he can do so without mentioning defense, but I do think he's missing one thing. Let's look at wOBA.
What I want you to notice is that while Upton's wOBA, a pretty good indicator of offensive talent, has been improving over the last two years, Heyward's has gone the other way. That green line is also important because it tells us that while the average has continued to decline like it has over the last five seasons, Upton has improved. This is important because offense is much desired in today's game. Now, Cameron makes a valid point that we aren't exactly comparing apples-to-apples. We need to look at the respective ages.
Now, once we include defense and baserunning, we come to a conclusion that the more valuable player is Heyward, but general managers often don't concern themselves with stupid nerd stats like WAR. They are looking at power, specifically right-handed power. So, when we look at the last three seasons, we see that Heyward ranks sixth among all outfielders in fWAR. Upton ranks 24th. But Upton's 73 homers in that time frame rank 11th while Heyward ranks 32nd, one spot behind Raul Ibanez. Power means something in a game that has saw nearly 500 fewer homeruns last season compared to 2013 and roughly 900 fewer homeruns compared to 2009.
Power, specifically right-handed power, means so much that Billy Butler got $30M. So, knowing that, the Braves cannot be wrong in wanting more for Upton and chances are good that they find it. While as a sabermetric fan, I think Heyward is the better player for the future and his all-around skills are deserving of immense praise, I don't agree with Cameron that Upton shouldn't cost more. The fact is that when you look at their comparable offensive numbers and the state of the game today, the Braves would be idiotic to accept any less. For a team that doesn't look to be competing in 2015, that's at least exciting as trading Upton could make the climb back up the standings shorter considering his value in today's market.
See ya, Jonny and Ramiro!
It wasn't much of a surprise when the Braves announced that both Jonny Venters and Ramiro Pena had been designated for assignment late Wednesday evening. The Braves needed room on their 40 man roster for a slew of additions and I hope to look more into the names added this weekend. Before we get to that, though, let's look at the now ex-Braves.
Ramiro Pena
(UPDATE: Pena was actually outright to Gwinnett instead of being released so he's still in the organization.) It was a bit of a head scratcher when the Braves gave Pena a major league contract two winters ago. He had posted a .553 OPS in 338 PA with the Yankees over parts of four seasons. Players like Pena typically travel from organization-to-organization on minor league contracts, seeking out the right situation that gets them back to the majors. So why former general manager Frank Wren surrendered major league money to Pena was unknown. Perhaps there was a bit of a market for Pena.
Pena made Wren look really good in 2013, though. Unfortunately, his play led to Joe Simpson and his ilk attempting to call Pena a "National League type of player." On the other hand, fortunately, he was very productive for Atlanta, slashing his way to .278/.330/.443 off the bench. He endeared himself to Braves fans on April 12th when he took Clint Stammen of the Nationals deep for a two-run, extra innings homer in Washington. It was the first game of a three game sweep the Braves would have of the hated Nationals and the ninth win of a 13-2 start. Jeff Shultz would make it his job to remind us how poorly the Braves would be in 2013 if you took out 15 games of the season.
Pena's first season in Atlanta ended later that June when he was diagnosed with a tear in his right shoulder. Apparently, Pena walked on the mound at some point and was inflicted with the curse that kills Braves pitchers. However, his 2013 was good enough to warrant a return trip and the Braves settled before arbitration on the same day they brought back Venters for 2014.
Back healthy, NotPrado's 2014 season lacked the solid play of his 2013 campaign. Pena's wOBA fell from .338 to .285, though he did finish strong while stealing playing time at second and spelling Andrelton Simmons at short. Over the final two months, Pena slashed .333/.380/.400 and people like me thought that was enough to be brought back for a third season. Besides, he would have only made around a million. However, the Braves thought that was roughly $500K too much as a rookie on a minimum contract might be just as valuable. Pena should get some immediate interest from other organizations, though he will probably have to play his way onto a major league roster after accepting an invite to spring training.
Jonny Venters
Flashback to spring training of 2011. There were some who felt there that the young Craig Kimbrel was going to have to at least share the closing duties with the left-handed Venters. Those includes Fredi Gonzalez, who suggested that "Maybe we'll go the whole way" with dual-closers. Interestingly, Venters didn't buy that and he was right. He settled into the middle of the O'Ventbrel trio with fellow lefty Eric O'Flaherty and 2011 Rookie of the Year Kimbrel to form a bullpen to be envied by the rest of the league. Unfortunately, it wouldn't last long.
Venters had already been around for awhile when he got to the majors in 2010. Drafted in the 30th round in 2003 out of high school in Altamonte Springs, Florida, Venters chose to take advantage of a now banned rule known as draft-and-follow. The Braves could select a player deep into the draft and that player could put in a year of college under his belt before coming back to the table to negotiate a contract. The Braves liked what they saw out of Venters' only year with Indian River Community College and signed him ahead of the 2004 draft. Two years later, he experienced his first serious pitching injury and would be put under the knife for Tommy John surgery. There would be more.
An average starter as he climbed the ladder, Venters was a non-prospect ahead of the 2010 season and failed to make the major league roster coming out of spring training. That would not keep Venters down in the minors for long. On April 17th, it was Venters getting the call from Gwinnett. I can't find the transaction, but I got to believe he was replacing Jo-Jo Reyes and that alone should have made Braves Country love him.
Used largely as the long guy at first, Venters gained Bobby Cox's trust to the point that he became Billy Wagner's primary set-up guy once the calendar switched to June. On July 17th, Venters became involved in a memorable moment when he hit Prince Fielder for whatever dumb reason. The incident also led to a suspension and one of Cox's 158 ejections. But Venters' rookie season was known more for his terrific pitching. His 1.95 ERA was backed up by a 2.69 FIP along with a shade over 10 K/9.
After falling back into the primary set-up role once Kimbrel replaced Wagner the following season, Venters was again tremendous. His heavy sinker, which stayed in the 95 mph range, led to prodigious amounts of groundballs, including 72.5% in 2011. He went to his only All-Star Game, joining Kimbrel, Jair Jurrjens, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann as the Braves' contingent. However, 85 games and 88 innings pitched that year led to struggles down the stretch.
Fresh off two amazing campaigns in the majors, Venters looked like he would have another big year in 2012, but health was an issue and as was a rising sinker that led to six homers after three the previous year. He also spent some time on the DL and even made a rehab stint. He made his final appearance of the season on October 5th against the Cardinals in what we now know as the Outfield Fly Rule game. Venters came in with the Braves down 5-2, a runner on second, and two outs. He would give up a single to Matt Carpenter that made it 6-2 before inducing an inning-ending double play to get the game to the seventh inning stretch.
Hard to believe that was the last time Venters has pitched a meaningful game. An elbow sprain in a spring training game in March of 2013 eventually led to his second Tommy John surgery. In 2014, he kept rehabbing and trying to get back to the Braves, but never even took the mound in a minor league game. After being shutdown a few times, his season finally came to a close with a third Tommy John in September. He will likely miss all of 2015 and if he pitches again, chances are it will not come with the Braves.
The list of pitchers who have come back from three Tommy John's isn't very long. Jose Rijo briefly resurrected his career 2001-02. After that, Jason Isringhausen was a shell of his former self in 2011-12, but did get into 100 games to finish his career. Chad Fox and Scott Williamson also had numerous operations, but their success was non-existent. Venters does have youth in his favor and everyone loves lefties.
I think Braves fans are like me when they hope Venters does make it back to the majors, even if its facing the Braves. Watching him shutdown the opposition, even though it was brief, was a true joy. O'Ventbrel gave the Braves an edge. Shame it couldn't last. Good luck, Jonny!
Pena's first season in Atlanta ended later that June when he was diagnosed with a tear in his right shoulder. Apparently, Pena walked on the mound at some point and was inflicted with the curse that kills Braves pitchers. However, his 2013 was good enough to warrant a return trip and the Braves settled before arbitration on the same day they brought back Venters for 2014.
Back healthy, NotPrado's 2014 season lacked the solid play of his 2013 campaign. Pena's wOBA fell from .338 to .285, though he did finish strong while stealing playing time at second and spelling Andrelton Simmons at short. Over the final two months, Pena slashed .333/.380/.400 and people like me thought that was enough to be brought back for a third season. Besides, he would have only made around a million. However, the Braves thought that was roughly $500K too much as a rookie on a minimum contract might be just as valuable. Pena should get some immediate interest from other organizations, though he will probably have to play his way onto a major league roster after accepting an invite to spring training.
Jonny Venters
Flashback to spring training of 2011. There were some who felt there that the young Craig Kimbrel was going to have to at least share the closing duties with the left-handed Venters. Those includes Fredi Gonzalez, who suggested that "Maybe we'll go the whole way" with dual-closers. Interestingly, Venters didn't buy that and he was right. He settled into the middle of the O'Ventbrel trio with fellow lefty Eric O'Flaherty and 2011 Rookie of the Year Kimbrel to form a bullpen to be envied by the rest of the league. Unfortunately, it wouldn't last long.
Venters had already been around for awhile when he got to the majors in 2010. Drafted in the 30th round in 2003 out of high school in Altamonte Springs, Florida, Venters chose to take advantage of a now banned rule known as draft-and-follow. The Braves could select a player deep into the draft and that player could put in a year of college under his belt before coming back to the table to negotiate a contract. The Braves liked what they saw out of Venters' only year with Indian River Community College and signed him ahead of the 2004 draft. Two years later, he experienced his first serious pitching injury and would be put under the knife for Tommy John surgery. There would be more.
An average starter as he climbed the ladder, Venters was a non-prospect ahead of the 2010 season and failed to make the major league roster coming out of spring training. That would not keep Venters down in the minors for long. On April 17th, it was Venters getting the call from Gwinnett. I can't find the transaction, but I got to believe he was replacing Jo-Jo Reyes and that alone should have made Braves Country love him.
Used largely as the long guy at first, Venters gained Bobby Cox's trust to the point that he became Billy Wagner's primary set-up guy once the calendar switched to June. On July 17th, Venters became involved in a memorable moment when he hit Prince Fielder for whatever dumb reason. The incident also led to a suspension and one of Cox's 158 ejections. But Venters' rookie season was known more for his terrific pitching. His 1.95 ERA was backed up by a 2.69 FIP along with a shade over 10 K/9.
After falling back into the primary set-up role once Kimbrel replaced Wagner the following season, Venters was again tremendous. His heavy sinker, which stayed in the 95 mph range, led to prodigious amounts of groundballs, including 72.5% in 2011. He went to his only All-Star Game, joining Kimbrel, Jair Jurrjens, Chipper Jones, and Brian McCann as the Braves' contingent. However, 85 games and 88 innings pitched that year led to struggles down the stretch.
Fresh off two amazing campaigns in the majors, Venters looked like he would have another big year in 2012, but health was an issue and as was a rising sinker that led to six homers after three the previous year. He also spent some time on the DL and even made a rehab stint. He made his final appearance of the season on October 5th against the Cardinals in what we now know as the Outfield Fly Rule game. Venters came in with the Braves down 5-2, a runner on second, and two outs. He would give up a single to Matt Carpenter that made it 6-2 before inducing an inning-ending double play to get the game to the seventh inning stretch.
Hard to believe that was the last time Venters has pitched a meaningful game. An elbow sprain in a spring training game in March of 2013 eventually led to his second Tommy John surgery. In 2014, he kept rehabbing and trying to get back to the Braves, but never even took the mound in a minor league game. After being shutdown a few times, his season finally came to a close with a third Tommy John in September. He will likely miss all of 2015 and if he pitches again, chances are it will not come with the Braves.
The list of pitchers who have come back from three Tommy John's isn't very long. Jose Rijo briefly resurrected his career 2001-02. After that, Jason Isringhausen was a shell of his former self in 2011-12, but did get into 100 games to finish his career. Chad Fox and Scott Williamson also had numerous operations, but their success was non-existent. Venters does have youth in his favor and everyone loves lefties.
I think Braves fans are like me when they hope Venters does make it back to the majors, even if its facing the Braves. Watching him shutdown the opposition, even though it was brief, was a true joy. O'Ventbrel gave the Braves an edge. Shame it couldn't last. Good luck, Jonny!
Thursday, November 20, 2014
Does Jon Lester Make Sense for the Braves?
The news was a little surprising, especially given the timing of what else transpired this week. Jon Lester, the long-time Red Sox and brief Oakland Athletic, will meet, or depending on when you read this, have met with the Atlanta Braves this week about a possible contract.
Wait, but aren't we rebuilding?
Yeah, I thought so, too, but the Braves have been pretty open that the future is hardly set in stone. They could just as easily reload for 2015 or build for 2017. Signing a pitcher like Lester would appear to satisfy both of those needs, though it's questionable how realistic that is. The Braves have already invested $71.4M into eight players for 2015 with seven players still to deal with in arbitration, though at least three of them are likely to be non-tendered. Using arbitration estimates from MLBTR for the four I could see the Braves bringing back, plus minimum salaries for 10 more players, the Braves are looking at roughly $86-$88M invested out of the possible $110-$114M payroll. Is Lester even financially feasible? We'll get back to that.
Lester does make sense for the Braves and really any team who is seeking improvement, because the lefty is coming off his best season, isn't really that old (2015 will be his age-31 season), and has been remarkably durable (hasn't made fewer than 31 starts in any of his full seasons). Despite this, he won't even cost a team a first-round selection since he was traded in the final year of his contract and wasn't eligible for a qualifying offer. That would appear to be one reason the Braves would have more interest in Lester over the other big two starters on the market, Max Scherzer and James Shields. After all, it would be counter-productive for the new front office team to scream about the lack of minor league depth and lose another first rounder via a free agent signing.
Will the Braves be buying high on a talent that has largely been good, but rarely great? Between 2011-13, Lester ranked 16th in fWAR, but just 60th in FIP. This paints the picture of a durable workhorse not unlike last year's high priced addition, Ervin Santana. But last year, Lester upped his K% to a quarter of all batters, something he hasn't accomplished since 2010. His BB% fell under 7% for the first time in his career to 5.4%. This led to personal lows in WHIP, FIP, and barely missing his lowest xFIP of his career. Can something explain this fluctuation of numbers or did Lester just get it as a 30 year-old? Well, he did basically scrap his change-up, a pitch he used over 10% of the time in 2012-13, and relied much more on his cutter and curveball, which were both strikeout pitches in 2014. It would appear likely that change could be replicated. Lester wasn't lucky last year and so his future success remains rather attainable even if his numbers in his contract year vs. the previous three seasons do give you a momentary pause.
Lester also makes sense because it would immediately turn the Braves pitching staff into one that could compete for a division. The Braves were able to compete until the end last season with Aaron Harang doing his best Houdini impression. Imagine what it could do with Lester and Julio Teheran headlining a staff with the young and electric Alex Wood, new acquisition Shelby Miller, and x-factor Mike Minor.
Having said that, this is where I start looking at why I'm not keen on targeting Lester. Pitching wasn't the problem last season and signing Lester won't lead to a better on-base percentage, more homers, and more runs. Having Jason Heyward would have helped, but something happened there. This is not to say that the Braves shouldn't seek out the services of another pitcher (Justin Masterson has been rumored) because clearly, starting pitching depth is an issue.
So, that gets us back to the financial side. Does signing Lester make sense? Let's look at the contract Lester is expected to seek this winter. While all of this is guesswork, I think it's reasonable to assume Lester is in line to break the bank in the coming weeks. Obviously, Lester won't be touching Clayton Kershaw money (7 years, $215M). Looking at more comparable offers, last winter, Masahiro Tanaka got $175M over seven years and last spring, Scherzer rejected a six year, $144M deal. Between those offers is Zach Greinke's $147M over six years. I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of six years and $160M is reasonable for the market. Obviously, if Scherzer gets closer to $190M, Lester gets closer to Tanaka's deal. $160M over six years is an average of $26.7M. Sticker shock yet?
But wait, there's more. Since that kind of money would basically take up all of the Braves financial wiggle room for 2015, the Braves would have no room for error and they are still seeking out bench help, a possible stop-gap at second, and would marry themselves to the idea of Evan Gattis in left. On the flipside, Atlanta might look to move a couple of players to save some more cash, but doing so would mean the Braves would have to replace that player so are you really saving much? And what of 2016 when Justin Upton is a free agent and Gattis, Miller, and Wood are hitting arbitration? Granted, Dan Uggla will also be off the books. And when the Braves open the new park in 2017, at least $60M would be devoted to three players. Let's not even get into the mess of backloading a contract of this size.
And then there is Lester's age. If the going rate on free agent pitchers at the top tier of their profession is at least five years and Lester will pitch all of 2015 as a 31 year-old, just how long are you committing money to him and what kind of pitcher will he be at the end of the trade? I realize that you take risks with any long-term deal, but that is a lot of years and money to take a chance on a guy who might be a #3 or #4 by the time the deal is entering its final year.
Like many things, there are both positives and negatives. Who wouldn't want a pitcher of Lester's caliber pairing with Teheran for the rest of the decade? But does it make sense? I'm just not sold on that idea. Beyond the fact that the Heyward deal essentially says we aren't ready to compete and ignoring that the offense has only gotten worse since the end of the regular season, are we really going to invest roughly a quarter of next year's budget to one player? A player who has rarely been great?
Fortunately, this seems like the kind of the thing the Braves simply don't do. Sure, they flirt with the idea, but they ultimately shy away and try to make smaller and smarter signings.
Lester does make sense for the Braves and really any team who is seeking improvement, because the lefty is coming off his best season, isn't really that old (2015 will be his age-31 season), and has been remarkably durable (hasn't made fewer than 31 starts in any of his full seasons). Despite this, he won't even cost a team a first-round selection since he was traded in the final year of his contract and wasn't eligible for a qualifying offer. That would appear to be one reason the Braves would have more interest in Lester over the other big two starters on the market, Max Scherzer and James Shields. After all, it would be counter-productive for the new front office team to scream about the lack of minor league depth and lose another first rounder via a free agent signing.
Will the Braves be buying high on a talent that has largely been good, but rarely great? Between 2011-13, Lester ranked 16th in fWAR, but just 60th in FIP. This paints the picture of a durable workhorse not unlike last year's high priced addition, Ervin Santana. But last year, Lester upped his K% to a quarter of all batters, something he hasn't accomplished since 2010. His BB% fell under 7% for the first time in his career to 5.4%. This led to personal lows in WHIP, FIP, and barely missing his lowest xFIP of his career. Can something explain this fluctuation of numbers or did Lester just get it as a 30 year-old? Well, he did basically scrap his change-up, a pitch he used over 10% of the time in 2012-13, and relied much more on his cutter and curveball, which were both strikeout pitches in 2014. It would appear likely that change could be replicated. Lester wasn't lucky last year and so his future success remains rather attainable even if his numbers in his contract year vs. the previous three seasons do give you a momentary pause.
Lester also makes sense because it would immediately turn the Braves pitching staff into one that could compete for a division. The Braves were able to compete until the end last season with Aaron Harang doing his best Houdini impression. Imagine what it could do with Lester and Julio Teheran headlining a staff with the young and electric Alex Wood, new acquisition Shelby Miller, and x-factor Mike Minor.
Having said that, this is where I start looking at why I'm not keen on targeting Lester. Pitching wasn't the problem last season and signing Lester won't lead to a better on-base percentage, more homers, and more runs. Having Jason Heyward would have helped, but something happened there. This is not to say that the Braves shouldn't seek out the services of another pitcher (Justin Masterson has been rumored) because clearly, starting pitching depth is an issue.
So, that gets us back to the financial side. Does signing Lester make sense? Let's look at the contract Lester is expected to seek this winter. While all of this is guesswork, I think it's reasonable to assume Lester is in line to break the bank in the coming weeks. Obviously, Lester won't be touching Clayton Kershaw money (7 years, $215M). Looking at more comparable offers, last winter, Masahiro Tanaka got $175M over seven years and last spring, Scherzer rejected a six year, $144M deal. Between those offers is Zach Greinke's $147M over six years. I'd say somewhere in the neighborhood of six years and $160M is reasonable for the market. Obviously, if Scherzer gets closer to $190M, Lester gets closer to Tanaka's deal. $160M over six years is an average of $26.7M. Sticker shock yet?
But wait, there's more. Since that kind of money would basically take up all of the Braves financial wiggle room for 2015, the Braves would have no room for error and they are still seeking out bench help, a possible stop-gap at second, and would marry themselves to the idea of Evan Gattis in left. On the flipside, Atlanta might look to move a couple of players to save some more cash, but doing so would mean the Braves would have to replace that player so are you really saving much? And what of 2016 when Justin Upton is a free agent and Gattis, Miller, and Wood are hitting arbitration? Granted, Dan Uggla will also be off the books. And when the Braves open the new park in 2017, at least $60M would be devoted to three players. Let's not even get into the mess of backloading a contract of this size.
And then there is Lester's age. If the going rate on free agent pitchers at the top tier of their profession is at least five years and Lester will pitch all of 2015 as a 31 year-old, just how long are you committing money to him and what kind of pitcher will he be at the end of the trade? I realize that you take risks with any long-term deal, but that is a lot of years and money to take a chance on a guy who might be a #3 or #4 by the time the deal is entering its final year.
Like many things, there are both positives and negatives. Who wouldn't want a pitcher of Lester's caliber pairing with Teheran for the rest of the decade? But does it make sense? I'm just not sold on that idea. Beyond the fact that the Heyward deal essentially says we aren't ready to compete and ignoring that the offense has only gotten worse since the end of the regular season, are we really going to invest roughly a quarter of next year's budget to one player? A player who has rarely been great?
Fortunately, this seems like the kind of the thing the Braves simply don't do. Sure, they flirt with the idea, but they ultimately shy away and try to make smaller and smarter signings.
Wednesday, November 19, 2014
Why I Love and Hate the Heyward Trade: A Second Look
At first glance, most trades would appear to have something you love and hate, but the more I considered that idea, the more I felt you either love or hate most player exchanges. Or you come away indifferent. You rarely can find love and hate in the same trade, but Monday's blockbuster with the St. Louis Cardinals did bring out both emotions.
I love that the Braves got something for Jason Heyward. The Braves could have let Heyward play out his contract and picked up a sandwich compensation pick. Another first round pick sounds nice, but in the 25-35 range? In a shallow draft, that's flip-a-coin area. Instead, the Braves got a third year starting pitcher in Shelby Miller and another young pitcher coming off a solid Arizona Fall League run who immediately enters their top ten prospects in Tyrell Jenkins. Had they not made the trade, Heyward's gone and that reminds me...
I hate that the Braves considered Heyward gone. Look, it's clear that the Braves weren't all that interested in the idea of extending their still young right fielder. John Hart had said previously he considered the possibility of an extension highly unlikely, stating that players in their last year often want to at least test the free agent waters. This, as we know, is utter bullshit. Hart and the Braves hadn't even offered Heyward a long-term extension either in the final year or two of Frank Wren's regime or under Hart. Heyward publicly questioned why Braves fans were more interested in keeping Heyward around beyond 2015 while the Braves front office was ready to move on. But some of the pain of Heyward now in a dreaded Cardinals uniform is helped by looking at the top of the pitching staff since...
I love that the Braves staff is now considerably stronger. You can't win in baseball without a starting staff and while Atlanta's staff still won't begin to rival the Nationals' staff, picking up a player of Miller's caliber is hugely important. Before Miller was acquired, the Braves rotation looked like Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, a whole lot of hope, Mike Minor, and David Hale the Eff No. Adding Miller is that hope the Braves needed. Now, Miller is not without his questions. He wasn't that good in 2012 during his final run in the minors (sound like Teheran?) and struggled for the majority of last year. However, like I said, he finished strong and resembled the 2013 version of Miller that had 8.8 K/9, 3 BB/9, and a 3.67 FIP. Miller has 3 fWAR potential and could easily reach that next season. But...
I hate that the Braves are relying on Miller. Short of picking up another starter to plug behind Wood (and the Braves do like Jon Lester), Miller is their guy and that doesn't make me super excited. As much as I just talked him up, Miller had a worse fWAR than B.J. Upton last season. He was worse than Gavin Floyd and Floyd's elbow tried to vacate his body. Miller is a capable pitcher, but is he a guy you want starting playoff games for you? The jury is still out. I typically don't get excited about two-pitch starters, though. I looked at Ross Detwiler as a guy who, despite the Nationals hype machine, was destined to fall back to Earth simply based on being a two-pitch guy. That may not be a fair comparison for Miller and I'm more than happy to be wrong, but as I said a couple of days ago, there is a reason why Miller and four years of team control was made available. Still, it's worth noting that...
I love that the Braves added another young power arm. A lot of the success of this deal will depend less on if Heyward breaks out in 2015 or Miller recaptures his former glory, but if Jenkins develops into a major league pitcher who brings the Braves value. There is reason to believe the Braves will get just that. Jenkins brings it at 92-94 heat with a chance to bring it at 96 mph, plus a nice curve and a work-in-progress changeup. He either projects as a #3 or #4 starter who could move to the pen and become a solid asset there. If in three years, both Miller and Jenkins are making up 40% of the rotation, this deal has to be a win no matter what Heyward does. That said,..
I hate that the Braves didn't get a better prospect. But there are the questions on Jenkins. A first round choice in 2010, Jenkins has struggled to shine while dealing with numerous injuries. He has yet to pitch in AA, though he is ticketed to do that this season. His biggest moment so far came this fall when he played in the Arizona Fall League, though his numbers weren't that impressive (24.1 ING, 10 walks, 18 K's, 1.36 WHIP). Now, Jenkins projects well and that's why he was still a top ten prospect in the Cards and now Braves system, but there certainly is a lot of faith that he scratches the surface on what the projections are for him. Regardless, this deal had to be made and...
I love that the Braves made the move because Heyward's bat was declining rapidly. This appears to be semi controversial and as much as I loved Heyward's all-around capabilities, the Braves needed a bat and there were developing questions there. Over the last three years, Heyward's wOBA has gone from .351 to .344 to .329 last season. This is parallel to his fall in isolated power - .210 to .173 to .113. One can definitely argue batting leadoff forced Heyward did some of the harm, but I don't see it. While Heyward may have been miscast as a leadoff hitter, I doubt he would change his offensive approach to explain the disappearance of power. For instance, there isn't a significant change in his GB% or LD%. Now, he's still young and could still develop into a power hitter, but not with the Braves. That is why...
I hate that we won't see Heyward become the player we all believed he could be. Maybe this is similar to Andruw Jones. Though super productive as a Brave, Andruw was never the guy we expected after watching him pepper the Bronx with homeruns back in 1996. Heyward has suffered similar criticisms. We expected more after his rookie season and again after his 2012 year. But two straight seasons where his numbers were offensively challenged? We appreciated his well-rounded baseball ability, but he was paid to hit and his numbers hadn't reached the levels we expected. Yet. This could have been the year. This still could be the year. Unfortunately, there won't be a tomahawk on his chest for it.
As you can see, there is both good and bad with this trade. Many who have commented said they liked the trade for both teams. Clearly, the Cardinals are in a better position to contend and roll the dice with Heyward. The Braves are, or, based on this trade, they should be in at least a mini-rebuild. Getting something that can be retained for a guy who you didn't want to sign in the first place is just a smart business decision.
And that last bit is why you can both love and hate this trade. As a fan, I hate it. I remember watching Heyward play in Lynchburg with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans. He homered and made a game-ending catch at the wall. I was immediately a fan of the already hyped young man and couldn't wait for him to arrive in the majors. To put it mildly, arrive he did. Homering in his first at-bat off Carlos Zambrano that had The Ted rocking like it was playoffs time. Sprinkle in his amazing defense (his catch in New York to save a game still defies logic), his base-running (watching him run first-to-home was baseball porn), and personality and you had all the makings of a fan favorite that you want to stick around for years.
But as a fan of the business side of baseball, I can't hate this trade. Logically, I look at four years of Miller + anything I get out of Jenkins as a win when all I gave up was a pending free agent and an increasingly expensive middle reliever who was often injured. Again, that's a no brainer. The Braves are almost certainly worse off in 2015 for it, but in 2016 and 2017? Long-term, this deal works well, especially if the Braves are truly going to rebuild. Suffice it to say, this is the kind of trade I would have made in OOTP with faceless fictional players.
Long story short...I both love and hate this trade. I will both love and hate it when the season begins. I will probably hate it more when the Braves visit St. Louis in late July or when the Cards come to Atlanta to finish the season. Conversely, I will probably love it more if/when Miller throws eight solid frames to help the Braves win. This trade isn't nearly as bad as it felt when it punched me in the throat on Monday, but it isn't as good as some want to make it. Still kind of sucked, though.
I love that the Braves added another young power arm. A lot of the success of this deal will depend less on if Heyward breaks out in 2015 or Miller recaptures his former glory, but if Jenkins develops into a major league pitcher who brings the Braves value. There is reason to believe the Braves will get just that. Jenkins brings it at 92-94 heat with a chance to bring it at 96 mph, plus a nice curve and a work-in-progress changeup. He either projects as a #3 or #4 starter who could move to the pen and become a solid asset there. If in three years, both Miller and Jenkins are making up 40% of the rotation, this deal has to be a win no matter what Heyward does. That said,..
I hate that the Braves didn't get a better prospect. But there are the questions on Jenkins. A first round choice in 2010, Jenkins has struggled to shine while dealing with numerous injuries. He has yet to pitch in AA, though he is ticketed to do that this season. His biggest moment so far came this fall when he played in the Arizona Fall League, though his numbers weren't that impressive (24.1 ING, 10 walks, 18 K's, 1.36 WHIP). Now, Jenkins projects well and that's why he was still a top ten prospect in the Cards and now Braves system, but there certainly is a lot of faith that he scratches the surface on what the projections are for him. Regardless, this deal had to be made and...
I love that the Braves made the move because Heyward's bat was declining rapidly. This appears to be semi controversial and as much as I loved Heyward's all-around capabilities, the Braves needed a bat and there were developing questions there. Over the last three years, Heyward's wOBA has gone from .351 to .344 to .329 last season. This is parallel to his fall in isolated power - .210 to .173 to .113. One can definitely argue batting leadoff forced Heyward did some of the harm, but I don't see it. While Heyward may have been miscast as a leadoff hitter, I doubt he would change his offensive approach to explain the disappearance of power. For instance, there isn't a significant change in his GB% or LD%. Now, he's still young and could still develop into a power hitter, but not with the Braves. That is why...
I hate that we won't see Heyward become the player we all believed he could be. Maybe this is similar to Andruw Jones. Though super productive as a Brave, Andruw was never the guy we expected after watching him pepper the Bronx with homeruns back in 1996. Heyward has suffered similar criticisms. We expected more after his rookie season and again after his 2012 year. But two straight seasons where his numbers were offensively challenged? We appreciated his well-rounded baseball ability, but he was paid to hit and his numbers hadn't reached the levels we expected. Yet. This could have been the year. This still could be the year. Unfortunately, there won't be a tomahawk on his chest for it.
As you can see, there is both good and bad with this trade. Many who have commented said they liked the trade for both teams. Clearly, the Cardinals are in a better position to contend and roll the dice with Heyward. The Braves are, or, based on this trade, they should be in at least a mini-rebuild. Getting something that can be retained for a guy who you didn't want to sign in the first place is just a smart business decision.
And that last bit is why you can both love and hate this trade. As a fan, I hate it. I remember watching Heyward play in Lynchburg with the Myrtle Beach Pelicans. He homered and made a game-ending catch at the wall. I was immediately a fan of the already hyped young man and couldn't wait for him to arrive in the majors. To put it mildly, arrive he did. Homering in his first at-bat off Carlos Zambrano that had The Ted rocking like it was playoffs time. Sprinkle in his amazing defense (his catch in New York to save a game still defies logic), his base-running (watching him run first-to-home was baseball porn), and personality and you had all the makings of a fan favorite that you want to stick around for years.
But as a fan of the business side of baseball, I can't hate this trade. Logically, I look at four years of Miller + anything I get out of Jenkins as a win when all I gave up was a pending free agent and an increasingly expensive middle reliever who was often injured. Again, that's a no brainer. The Braves are almost certainly worse off in 2015 for it, but in 2016 and 2017? Long-term, this deal works well, especially if the Braves are truly going to rebuild. Suffice it to say, this is the kind of trade I would have made in OOTP with faceless fictional players.
Long story short...I both love and hate this trade. I will both love and hate it when the season begins. I will probably hate it more when the Braves visit St. Louis in late July or when the Cards come to Atlanta to finish the season. Conversely, I will probably love it more if/when Miller throws eight solid frames to help the Braves win. This trade isn't nearly as bad as it felt when it punched me in the throat on Monday, but it isn't as good as some want to make it. Still kind of sucked, though.
Tuesday, November 18, 2014
More Minor League Depth Signings
Last Wednesday, I did a look at free agent signings, almost all of the minor league variety, that the Braves have finalized so far. Let's look again at some of the new names you might not know of. If you're curious, BaseballAmerica.com does a superb job of tracking this information here, though I did stumble onto another name not mentioned at that link.
RHP Justin Jackson - 25 years old - Formerly of the Toronto organization.
Interesting player to start with. Jackson was drafted with the 45th selection of the 2007 draft as a supplemental first round pick. The Jays got the selection when Frank Catalanotto signed with the Texas Rangers. A graduate from T.C. Roberson High School in Asheville, North Carolina, Jackson was a shortstop with a powerful arm and amazing speed. If his bat developed and he remained at shortstop, Jackson's stock would grow considerably. Unfortunately, it never did. In his first full season, he struck out over 150 times in 121 games, yet posted his best single season OPS of .708.
By 2010, the Blue Jays were toying with the idea of using Jackson as a utility player and he began to drift to second and third, along with the outfield. Still no success. Finally, before the 2013 season, Jackson moved to the mound in efforts to jumpstart his career. When he pitched in high school, he was able to top out his velocity at 93 mph and that was with him more focused on playing shortstop.
Since moving to the mound, there have been mixed results. He still has the same velocity and mixes in a change-up and slider, but as probably should be expected, his control has not been very noteworthy (4.5 BB/9) and that likely has led to an unacceptable amount of homers. But there is some potential here and this is, at worst, a minor league depth pickup. At best...who knows? Be sure to give him a follow on twitter and his hilarious instagram. By the way, one last note on Jackson and more notably the school he graduated from. Also from T.C. Roberson? Last year's first round pick, Braxton Davidson.
RHP Victor Mateo - 25 years old - Formerly of the Tampa organization.
More minor league depth, this time one with starting experience. Mateo, a tall and slender righty from the Dominican Republic, has been pretty durable since joining the Rays system back in 2007 and again, there is some potential here. Notably, Mateo has thrown two no-hitters already, one in 2011 and another in 2013, while moving up the ladder. He actually had some prospect status following the 2013 season when he posted a 1.14 WHIP in 153.1 ING. However, he was left in AA for a second season last year and his numbers worsened. Mateo relies on a low 90's fastball and a hit-and-miss change-up, but doesn't get many K's and walks a few too many. Still, with his youth, durable nature, and the ability to occasionally put it together, there might be some hope he becomes more than AAAA fodder.
LHP Francisco Rondon - 26 years old - Formerly of the New York Yankees organization.
Unlike Jackson and Mateo, Rondon has been on the cusp of breaking through to the bigs. While he has spent most of the last three years receiving a AA salary, he has appeared in 16 games for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The lefty has relied on low 90's velocity with a nice sweeping slider to get outs, but the reason why he was picked up for peanuts was simply that he wasn't getting enough outs. Too many fastballs left high in the zone turned into walks and extra base hits. Rondon needs his fastball to be located properly to allow his best pitch, his slider, to do its job and get left-hand batters reaching. Maybe working on his release point will allow him to gain better control. He's worth a look, but he's not likely to ever play for the Braves.
SS Sean Kazmar - 30 years old - Re-Signed
Looks like the Braves have latched onto a guy they like at Gwinnett. Kazmar originally joined the Braves before the 2013 season and spent last year with the Braves as well. Before that, he had spent a year with the Mets and a year with the Mariners following seven years in the Padres organization that allowed him the opportunity to log 19 games in the majors back in 2008. Originally the first pick of he fifth round back in 2004, Kazmar had his best minor league season of his career last year, slashing .297/.348/.435. Unfortunately, he was limited to just 68 games and that marks the third consecutive year he has failed to play in at least 100 games. Known for his glove, Kazmar is around for depth and nothing more.
RHP Justin Jackson - 25 years old - Formerly of the Toronto organization.
Interesting player to start with. Jackson was drafted with the 45th selection of the 2007 draft as a supplemental first round pick. The Jays got the selection when Frank Catalanotto signed with the Texas Rangers. A graduate from T.C. Roberson High School in Asheville, North Carolina, Jackson was a shortstop with a powerful arm and amazing speed. If his bat developed and he remained at shortstop, Jackson's stock would grow considerably. Unfortunately, it never did. In his first full season, he struck out over 150 times in 121 games, yet posted his best single season OPS of .708.
By 2010, the Blue Jays were toying with the idea of using Jackson as a utility player and he began to drift to second and third, along with the outfield. Still no success. Finally, before the 2013 season, Jackson moved to the mound in efforts to jumpstart his career. When he pitched in high school, he was able to top out his velocity at 93 mph and that was with him more focused on playing shortstop.
Since moving to the mound, there have been mixed results. He still has the same velocity and mixes in a change-up and slider, but as probably should be expected, his control has not been very noteworthy (4.5 BB/9) and that likely has led to an unacceptable amount of homers. But there is some potential here and this is, at worst, a minor league depth pickup. At best...who knows? Be sure to give him a follow on twitter and his hilarious instagram. By the way, one last note on Jackson and more notably the school he graduated from. Also from T.C. Roberson? Last year's first round pick, Braxton Davidson.
RHP Victor Mateo - 25 years old - Formerly of the Tampa organization.
More minor league depth, this time one with starting experience. Mateo, a tall and slender righty from the Dominican Republic, has been pretty durable since joining the Rays system back in 2007 and again, there is some potential here. Notably, Mateo has thrown two no-hitters already, one in 2011 and another in 2013, while moving up the ladder. He actually had some prospect status following the 2013 season when he posted a 1.14 WHIP in 153.1 ING. However, he was left in AA for a second season last year and his numbers worsened. Mateo relies on a low 90's fastball and a hit-and-miss change-up, but doesn't get many K's and walks a few too many. Still, with his youth, durable nature, and the ability to occasionally put it together, there might be some hope he becomes more than AAAA fodder.
LHP Francisco Rondon - 26 years old - Formerly of the New York Yankees organization.
Unlike Jackson and Mateo, Rondon has been on the cusp of breaking through to the bigs. While he has spent most of the last three years receiving a AA salary, he has appeared in 16 games for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. The lefty has relied on low 90's velocity with a nice sweeping slider to get outs, but the reason why he was picked up for peanuts was simply that he wasn't getting enough outs. Too many fastballs left high in the zone turned into walks and extra base hits. Rondon needs his fastball to be located properly to allow his best pitch, his slider, to do its job and get left-hand batters reaching. Maybe working on his release point will allow him to gain better control. He's worth a look, but he's not likely to ever play for the Braves.
SS Sean Kazmar - 30 years old - Re-Signed
Looks like the Braves have latched onto a guy they like at Gwinnett. Kazmar originally joined the Braves before the 2013 season and spent last year with the Braves as well. Before that, he had spent a year with the Mets and a year with the Mariners following seven years in the Padres organization that allowed him the opportunity to log 19 games in the majors back in 2008. Originally the first pick of he fifth round back in 2004, Kazmar had his best minor league season of his career last year, slashing .297/.348/.435. Unfortunately, he was limited to just 68 games and that marks the third consecutive year he has failed to play in at least 100 games. Known for his glove, Kazmar is around for depth and nothing more.
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