Monday Roundup: Long Week Begins and Ends With Disappointment

With eight games at home on the schedule against division foes, last week had a chance of being a springboard for the Braves into a big June. Instead, it ended up a losing effort that included a disheartening doubleheader loss.

Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter

June 5: 11-4 LOSS vs. Phillies
This one got away from Bartolo Colon early. He was charged with eight runs in his 3.2 innings. Not that it mattered, but Sam Freeman and Eric O'Flaherty each gave up homers as well. Johan Camargo had a big day at the plate with a double and a triple. Ender Inciarte and Brandon Phillips also had two hits a piece with Inciarte reaching ten doubles on the season. He's currently on pace for 26 doubles this season. His career high is 27 set in 2015. He's already tied his career-high in homers, also set in 2015.

June 6: 3-1 LOSS vs. Phillies
Atlanta got to Aaron Nola early with a double by Phillips and a RBI single by Nick Markakis in the first, but the offense managed just five hits the rest of the way. Meanwhile, the Phillies were able to scratch three runs across against Jaime Garcia to pull out the win. Phillips led Braves hitters with two hits. Garcia went 7.2 innings in the loss and struck out four. Jason Motte stranded a runner while striking out the only hitter he faced. Jason Hursh, who was just called up to replace the DL'd Colon, tossed a one-hit ninth with a K. It was the fourth time he had been called up from the minors, but just the third time he had been used. He would be demoted and recalled again later in the week.

June 7: 14-1 WIN vs. Phillies
A 4-0 game entering the bottom of the seventh turned into a blow-out as the Braves set a new season-high in runs scored. Markakis doubled in Phillips for the game's first run in the fourth. An inning later, after Tyler Flowers reached on an error and Rio Ruiz worked a walk, Dansby Swanson unloaded for his sixth homer of the year. He's now tied for third on the team in homeruns. Markakis drove in five runs with three hits - all doubles. In addition to his big fly, Swanson singled twice to finish with three hits. Danny Santana had a pinch-hit two-run double and Matt Adams finished with three ribbies and a homer. Mike Foltynewicz didn't need much help, either. He finished with seven scoreless innings while allowing four hits, two walks, and picking up four K's. Jose Ramirez and Luke Jackson finished from there with Jackson yielding a run on three hits.

June 8: 3-1 WIN vs. Phillies
R.A. Dickey was masterful over seven innings, allowing just three hits and one run. More impressively, he walked nobody and struck out eight. Meanwhile, the Braves scored twice in the first to claim a lead they would not surrender. Phillips, Matt Kemp, Adams, and Flowers all had two-hit games with all but Adams adding a double. Flowers was catching Dickey for the first time this season and while he was charged with a passed ball, the results from Dickey seemed to indicate Flowers would get another chance to catch the knuckler. Arodys Vizcaino and Ian Krol teamed up to pitch the eighth before Jim Johnson closed the door in the ninth.

June 9: 3-2 WIN vs. Mets
Rio Ruiz followed up a Swanson hustle double with a pinch-hit single to score the shortstop and lead to a walk-off victory. With the score tied and one out in the ninth, Swanson sent a single up the middle that Curtis Granderson took his sweet time fielding. Swanson pushed the issue and beat the throw to second to set up Ruiz, who took the only pitch Josh Edgin threw to left field to score Swanson. Granderson had homered in the third to put the Mets up, but Swanson (a common theme here) doubled in two runs to briefly put Atlanta on top. Jason Motte couldn't hold it from there, allowing a homer. Julio Teheran was improved as he continues to try to turn his season around. He gave up four hits, walked three, and struck out three over six innings before giving the bullpen the game with a 2-1 lead. Other than Motte, the pen didn't allow a hit even though Braves manager Brian Snitker used five relievers to record nine outs.

June 10: Game 1...6-1 LOSS vs. Mets
Can't blame the rookie as Sean Newcomb was superb. He went 6.1 innings, allowed four hits, walked two (one intentionally), and struck out seven. His biggest mistake came in the second when he tried to do a bit too much and committed an error that would help set the stage for the Mets to pull ahead on a sacrifice fly. It was still 1-0 in the eighth when Luke Jackson allowed another sacrifice fly. He then loaded the bases in the ninth before surrendering the game-ender - a Grand Slam. The Braves offense was non-existent as they managed a half-dozen hits, including two extra-base knocks by Brandon Phillips. It was Phillips' eighth-inning homer that kept the Braves from being shutout.

Game 2...8-1 LOSS vs. Mets
Once again, the Braves offense didn't show up and picked up just five hits, including a RBI single by Johan Camargo, who had two hits. Swanson had the only extra-base hit, a double that preceded Camargo's seventh-inning single. Matt Wisler was good - until he wasn't. After four very impressive innings, he gave up a three-run homer in the fifth and another run in the sixth. Eric O'Flaherty surrendered four more runs to turn the game into a laugher.

June 11: 2-1 LOSS vs. Mets
Jaime Garcia went seven innings, allowed just two runs, and struck out nine - and it wasn't enough. Completing a weekend where they were missing in action, the Braves offense picked up six or fewer hits for the third consecutive game. They had a shot to plate what would have been the tying run in the fifth inning when they loaded the bases on two singles and a walk, but Matt Adams hit an inning-ending double play. He was originally called safe at first before a replay challenge overturned the call on the field.

Trending Up:
Dansby Swanson (9-for-24, 3 2B, HR, 2 BB, 2 K)
Johan Camargo (4-for-13, 2B, 3B)
Ender Inciarte (8-for-27, 2B, 5 BB, 2 K)
Mike Foltynewicz (7 ING, 4 H, 2 BB, 4 K)
Ian Krol (3 G, 1.2 ING, 2 K)
Sean Newcomb (6.1 ING, 4 H, R, 2 BB,  K)
R.A. Dickey (7 ING, 3 H, R, ER, 8 K)
Jaime Garcia (14.2 ING, 5 R, 5 ER, 2 BB, 13 K)

Trending South:
Kurt Suzuki (0-for-12, K)
Matt Adams (6-for-29, HR, 4 BB, 7 K)
Bartolo Colon (3.2 ING, 8 R, 2 BB, 4 K)
Eric O'Flaherty (3 G, 3.2 ING, 7 H, 6 R, 6 ER, BB, 4 K)

This Week: 3-5
Season: 27-35, tied for 3rd in the NL East, 11 GB (lost a spot and a .5 game)

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves leave Atlanta for a quick trip to D.C. to face the division-leading Nationals. Monday and Tuesday are night games while Wednesday will be a 4:05 EDT start. After an off day, Atlanta returns home to welcome the Marlins into town. After a night game on Friday, Saturday's effort will be a 4:10 EDT start and will be Superhero Night at the ballpark. Sunday's game is another Alumni Sunday with a pair of former second basemen as Marcus Giles and Mark Lemke will be on hand. Former pinch-hitting extraordinaire Dwight Smith will also be at the game along with Jay Howell, who spent one season with the Braves back in 1993.

Three Last Things

1) Sean Newcomb Deserves to Stay for Now
I've been on the Sean Newcomb Bandwagon since about midseason last year. I was like many fans and it took me some time to warm up to the deal that sent fan favorite Andrelton Simmons packing. But once I saw Newcomb start to make some mechanical adjustments last season, I grew more and more excited about his potential. I ranked him second on my preseason Top 50 and went into this season ready to watch him force his way into the majors. I was a little shocked to see it happen so quickly.

Newcomb's going to have to throw his secondary pitches more frequently and for strikes - 70 of his 96 pitches Saturday were four-seam fastballs - but what we saw against the Mets was a kid unaffected by the major league bright lights. He threw his pitches with confidence and even control, hitting the strikezone on 53% of his pitches - over 5% over the major league average this year. His fastball ranged between 91.1 mph and 96.9 mph and he was nearly hitting 96 mph in the sixth inning. His curve was off-the-charts ridiculous and froze hitters left-and-right. The ones that did swing at it often missed.

Like I said, he's going to have to throw his slider and change more often in future outings, but as far as debuts go, Newcomb excelled. He gave us a glimpse into the pitcher he can be. What's he got in his left arm for an encore?

2) Markakis: A Platoon Option?
Before coming to the Atlanta Braves, Nick Markakis definitely hit righties with more force than he hit lefties. While his batting average showed little platoon advantage, he walked nearly 3% more and sported an ISO that was 51 points higher. That gave us a difference in wOBA of .355 vs. .329. But that's not so bad. A general rule of thumb tells us that .329 is a bit between average and above-average.

But...and I bet you can guess where this is going...things have been a bit different since coming to Atlanta. Now, to be fair, his marks are down across the board compared to his Orioles days. To be equally as fair, his Orioles days includes a time when wOBA was much higher around the league so it's difficult to say that his decline with Atlanta has been significant. All of that out of the way, Markakis's wOBA as a Brave against righthanders is .340. That's an above-average mark and nothing to sneeze at. But his mark against lefthanders? .279. That's straight up awful and a detriment to the team.

I can't blame the Braves for playing him so frequently against lefthanders. They've rarely had better options. But it's time to accept that Markakis is now just a platoon hitter and if he's a Brave in 2018, he'll need a platoon partner - perhaps Dustin Peterson or the guy I'm going to talk about next.

Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter

3) Acuna and Andruw
Ronald Acuna has done some pretty ridiculous things that 19-year-olds simply do not do. He played just 40 games at Low-A ball last year, but still received an extended stay with the major league club this spring and arrived in Florida for High-A ball with massive expectations. Those inflated expectations were already heightened after an absurd run in Australia during winter ball and a lot of eyes were on him as he began 2017 as one of the youngest players in High-A.

He didn't stay there long. Twenty-eight games. Sixty-eight total games at both levels of A-ball. On May 9, he was promoted to Mississippi. Less than a month later, he had already been named Southern League Player of the Month as he blitzed the league. Naturally, it's difficult NOT to compare him to another teenage outfielder who, back in 1996, jumped from High-A all the way to the majors with stops in Double-A and Triple-A along the way. Now, Acuna hasn't flashed the other-worldly power Andruw Jones did back then, but he's following a similar trajectory. Whether that gets him to the majors in 2017 remains to be seen.

But I want to concentrate on 2018 and what happened with Andruw Jones in 1997. We all remember how Andruw made a name for himself in the '96 World Series, but do you remember how the Braves treated the 20-year-old the following season? He played in all but nine ballgames, yet started just 91 games. He played a few innings in left, but cycled mostly between right field and center field. Kenny Lofton's lengthy DL stint helped open up at-bats for Andruw and Michael Tucker's need for a right-handed caddy to neutralized lefties also helped.

Why not do the same thing with Ronald Acuna? The Braves would enter 2018 with a returning outfield, though Nick Markakis has just one year left on his contract and Matt Kemp's deal runs through 2019. Both players have been pretty durable over the last several years, but each will be a year older in 2018. But the bigger advantage to bringing Acuna in for a year as the fourth outfielder is that he can fill a number of roles. As I stated in the second "Last Thing," Markakis has not shown the ability as a Brave to consistently hit left-handed pitching. Acuna could help there. He's also a capable defender in center field, something the Braves lack behind Ender Inciarte. Further, his defense could come in handy in late innings as a defensive replacement for Kemp without sacrificing too much offense. Finally, Acuna gives the Braves a solid replacement at any outfield spot during games in AL ballparks.

The belief is that Acuna won't be in the majors in 2018 if he's not starting and that won't happen without a trade. That's probably accurate, but giving Andruw a year as the fourth outfielder didn't hurt his development. Why not let Acuna follow the same course?

Best #60 in Braves Franchise History

(Series Note: Baseball-Reference was used for a collection of players so this series is as complete as their database is. No coaches/managers were included and a number had to have at least four options to be considered with two exceptions. I started from the highest available number because as I approach #1, I'll have much tougher decisions. For the complete series, click here.)

Best #60 in Franchise History

I began this series months ago and am now trying to get back to it.

I'm also remembering why finding the best #60 stymied me in the first place. Six players have worn the number before and all came in a ten-year period between 2007-16. Half of the club wore different numbered jerseys in their times with the Braves with two, including Ian Thomas, donning three different jersey numbers.

Joel De La Cruz could, theoretically, become the first Brave to wear #60 in more than one season. After all, he's the only guy still in the system. But he, like the aforementioned Thomas, fell short of being the top #60. As did Manny Banuelos and Ryan Buchter, who wore the number during their short careers in Atlanta. Jose Ascanio appeared in just 13 games with the Braves back in 2007 and wore two different jersey numbers, but he won't be our top guy, either.

My choice for the Top #60 is...Gregor Blanco

To be fair, #60 was one of two different numbers Blanco wore in 2008. I don't know when he changed over to #18 (or changed to #60, which would be odd). Either way, Blanco was a bit of a cult hero back in '08. That probably tells you how badly the Braves performed that season.

He was never much of a prospect. Though fast, he was not a skilled base stealer. Though a strong defender, his arm wasn't considered much more than average. But he did one thing that Billy Beane would love - he got on base. A lot. Frankly, it's a pretty big surprise that there wasn't a chapter in Moneyball related to Beane trying to get Blanco. In 2006, he on-based .403 between Mississippi and Richmond. After another year, in which he carried a .369 OBP for Richmond, Blanco broke camp with the big-league club in 2008.

To put it mildly, the outfield was a bit of a mess for the '08 Braves. Jeff Francoeur was the unquestioned starter in right field, but the Braves were relying heavily on Mark Kotsay in center field to replace Andruw Jones (that sentence seems a bit ridiculous). Out in left field, the Braves had let Willie Harris go and unless you count acquiring Josh Anderson, had not replaced Harris. In retrospect, you'd probably want the team to let Harris go and go out and find an improvement. Instead, Atlanta prepared to give Matt Diaz a shot to be an everyday guy.

Part of their refusal to go heavy after a replacement for either Jones or Harris was that their top prospects, Jordan Schafer and Jason Heyward, were outfielders and the Braves weren't anxious to block them with long-term outfield commitments. But, to be fair, Diaz kind of deserved at least a shot. Since coming to Atlanta in 2006, Diaz slashed .333/.366/.487. And...to also be fair...he had done a good deal of that against right-handed pitching (.336/.374/.439). Of course, it took a .401 BABIP to do that...

So, Diaz started the first 15 games before Blanco finally got a shot in the lineup. Diaz would continue to be the regular guy until ineffective play and injuries limited him to just 43 games. When Diaz finally went down in late May, as did Kotsay. That left Blanco in an everyday role as Anderson, Greg Norton, Brandon Jones, and Omar Infante tried to fill in.

Blanco would do what Blanco does. Show solid range, get on base, and never steal enough bases to truly maximize the value of his walks. He hit just .251, but on-based .366. His ISO was a miserable .058 in 519 PA. On a Braves team that would finish with 90 losses, Blanco was sixth in plate appearances and fourth in games played. Atlanta had seen enough of Blanco in the everyday role, though he did a bang up job keeping the seat warm considering his limitations.

The Venezuelan outfielder would never wear #60 again. He'd switch to #1 and play 60 more games with the Braves over the next year-and-a-half before being shipped with Jesse Chavez and Tim Collins to the Royals in the Rick Ankiel/Kyle Farnsworth deal. And in the end, it was that deal that made this decision so easy. If only for the magical homerun Ankiel would hit in the 2010 NLDS, that makes Blanco the Top #60 in Braves history.

Blanco would re-establish himself in the majors with the Giants as a regular contribitor for five years and won two rings with San Francisco.

Walk-Off Talk 1.2: Checking In With the Top 50 - Part 1

In this new series, Ryan Cothran and I have a back-and-forth as we discuss a subject. It's informal and we hope you guys get something out of it. This week, we’ll look at rising and falling prospects using the Walk-Off Walk Top 50 preseason list as a guide (link takes you to posts about the Top 50). At times, we’ll agree. Other times, we’ll disagree. Join the conversation and tell us where we are misguided in the comment section. 

Wilson (left) with Kyle Mueller | Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter

RyRy,

It’s hard not to be smug when talking about the farm system the Atlanta Braves have put together. From trades to acquire even more talent to the smart utilization of the draft to maximize both quality and quantity to a recommitment to the international market - and even holdovers from the Frank Wren era like Lucas Sims and Ozzie Albies - the Braves organization is full of not just depth at a number of positions, but talent that has impact potential. Today, I wanted to go over some of the guys that have increased their stock over the first two months of the season. At the same, we can’t ignore the players who are falling down the prospect rankings. To be fair, some of that is due to the first category - the guys pushing their stock up. But there are a few - yes a few -, that have struggled to this point.

I’m going to use my Top 50 as an outline here. Hey, since you’re a full-fledged member of Walk-Off Walk, I guess you are going to have help me with the midseason rankings. Just know that while I value your opinion, if it doesn’t agree with mine, it’s wrong.

Just kidding. Maybe.

Let’s get on with it. #46 Bryse Wilson is kind of the forgotten arm from last year’s class and not only because I keep forgetting to spell his name with an “s” rather than a “c”. A fourth-round pick, Wilson dominated in the Gulf Coast League, but remained firmly in the shadow of Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, and Kyle Muller. Yet, it was Wilson, not Muller, that jumped from the GCL to the South Atlantic League to open 2017. He hasn’t been as good as Wentz and Anderson according to FIP, but he’s still been damn good. A lot of pre-draft analysis strongly hinted Wilson could be a bullpen guy, but the Braves wouldn't have picked a high school arm that high (#109) to be a bullpen arm. They thought they saw something in him that maybe others didn't. So far, they might be right.

He’s one of the guys I expect to climb up the midseason list considerably. While I have only done a little prep work for it so far, do you expect a Top 30 placement for Wilson?

----------------------------

Tommy “Edgar Allan” Poe,

When looking at a list that has some of the best pitching prospects in the game, it’s easy to see Bryse Wilson and simply pass him over.  However, he’s making a believer out of me with a fastball that sits 93-95 MPH, can climb as high as 97, and has staying power throughout his starts. Did I mention he’s still two years away from being able to buy a beer legally in the states? Like many young ones, he’s self-admittedly needing to develop his offspeed stuff. He features both a slider and a changeup, but neither are a plus pitch yet. With so many starting pitchers seemingly in front of him on the depth chart, one could see Bryse being converted to an elite relief pitcher where he can feature his fastball that I’d bet could run up to triple-digits in due time. With 58.2 innings of really good baseball under his belt at Rome, accompanied by both a low-BB rate and a high-K rate, I’d say he’s most definitely a big mover up the list on a loaded system, and could be a quick mover after the 2017 season.

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Cothman,

I agree about Wilson completely. I feel almost ashamed that I under ranked him, but that gives him the opportunity to slide up these rankings considerably by midseason.

On the other hand, #36 Connor Lien is likely completely out of the Top 50. He, like Randy Ventura, was a guy I grew to love in 2015. Unlike Ventura, though, he’s only gotten worse. Back in ‘15, he slashed .285/.347/.415 with incredible defense. While it would have been difficult to predict stardom based on his numbers, there was enough value here to predict a 2-3 fWAR season once Lien was established in the majors.

But that hope is a pipe dream now. He wasn’t terrible during an injury-shortened 2016, but has fallen off the map this season with a strikeout rate hovering around 40%. Even Rob Deer and Mark Reynolds are telling him to make some contact. Things were so bad that he spent a week at extended spring training to try to clear his head. Unfortunately, it appears like Lien’s prospect status has completely eroded or am I wrong?

----------------------

Tommy,

I cannot argue here, but I can also brag on myself a bit: I never bit on Lien and I have Chris Johnson to thank for that.  The year of Lien’s breakout was 2 full years after the infamous .394 BABIP. Lien’s was .379 in 2015, and even with that, he didn’t break an .800 OPS. However, guys around Tomahawk Take were blowing up his defensive abilities and that combined with his speed made him a nice under the radar prospect. When Braves chose to leave him unprotected for the Rule-5 draft and he went unclaimed, it told me that no matter how great of a defensive Gandalf he could be, he’s just not going to be a big league commodity. As one can see this year, when his BABIP gets in the “league average” range, the offensive results are poor. You’re right in removing him from the list. Hopefully, for Lien he can turn it around...baseball is hard.

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Mr. Obvious,

Indeed, baseball is very hard. Sometimes, I admit I let my personal feelings overrule the logic side of me. I loved watching Lien in 2015. Still holding out hope he sells his soul for another BABIP-inflated season. It was kind of fun to watch the first time.

Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter

Onto a happier subject, Cristian Pache turns 19 next November, yet he's handling the South Atlantic League like a guy a few years older and with more experience than 57 games at rookie level. When Pache and Derian Cruz signed back in 2015, it was Cruz that garnered more accolades, but early in their careers, it's Pache who looks like a real prospect.

He's still learning to utilize his speed, but he's got the wheels to do some big things. So far, he's stolen 15 bases and has been caught just four times. But what really intrigues me is the potential pop in his bat. He has a big leg kick before driving forward in the box with a bat that explodes through the zone. It hasn't produced much in terms of real homerun power to this point, but the smart money is that he'll start popping a few in the near future. I had him ranked #26th coming into the season and he might not break into the Top 20 just yet - which is not a slight against him, but a representation of the talent throughout the system. Regardless, I have been impressed with a guy who only has five plate appearances during his brief career against a pitcher younger than him. Oh, and hey, he has elite center fielder potential in the field. Not that the Braves don't already have one of those, but it's great to keep cranking them out.

Despite the big leg kick, he's only striking out about 19% of the time against older and more experienced pitchers. The improvement in his walk rate (5.5% to 8.3%) is also exciting is as I look for progression in rate stats as a tell-tale sign of a rising prospect. So, my question is this, Ryan...how much power do you project Pache developing? I think he can be, at worst, a .150 ISO guy if he progresses like we hope he can. Is that too much to expect?

---------------

TomCat,

The body, the frame to grow into, the speed...it’s all there. But really, the numbers aren’t. In 465 plate appearances, not a single dinger.  What gives? I’ve got a theory, but let’s hold off a bit.

The positives, there’s much to like here as his speed, defensive efficiency, and ability to get on base is what’s driven his prospect rankings and like you stated, these skills are standing up* against competition older than him (it seems like we say this about every Braves prospect these days).

*Albeit, his .707 OPS leaves me wanting more and his .364 BABIP likely isn’t long-term sustainable

But the power? Many would think just by looking at his numbers that he must be a wiry kid, but that’s not the case. He’s 6’2, muscular, 185 pounds, and growing...so again, where’s the power? In the samples that I’ve seen (you can see it on YouTube, but I also subscribe to MILBTV so I’ve seen a15-20 more ABs than the norm) Pache seems to have a problem with weight distribution. So many times (to the point it seems intentional), he gets caught out on his front foot which all but crushes his ability to drive the ball. At this point, I feel it’s a habit he has to break that he probably developed early in his career to utilize his speed and get out of the box quick turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples. If he can stay back on the ball and generate the needed power from his legs, look out! Adding power to his game is the last thing that’s holding this kid back from being a 5-tool athlete on the heels of Ronald Acuna, but it’ll take a lot of time in the cages to work out an old habit that’ll likely take a while to die hard.

Monday Roundup: Krolling, Demeritte Rolling, Flowers Needs Extolling

Welcome to June and this week's Monday Roundup. We start with three out west to finish a six-game California swing and end with a trio of games in Cincinnati.

Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

May 29, 6-3 WIN @ Angels
The Braves scored all of their runs in the third with help from a pair of two-run doubles off the bats of the recently acquired Matt Adams and Danny Santana. Tyler Flowers, who had a pair of singles, and Rio Ruiz drove the other runs home. Ender Inciarte added two hits in the win. Julio Teheran went 6.1 innings and gave up three solo homeruns, including one to Andrelton Simmons and another, #598, to Albert Pujols. Jose Ramirez entered with the bases juiced in the seventh and got out of it. Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson shut the door from there.

May 30, 9-3 LOSS @ Angels
The third inning from hell was the Braves' undoing here. Up 2-0 entering the frame, Bartolo Colon got a grounder to lead off the frame, but Dansby Swanson whiffed on the diving attempt. No foul there, it would have been a tough play. After an out was recorded (and a ball was nearly thrown away by Colon on a pickoff attempt), Kole Calhoun sent one up the middle. Jace Peterson bobbled and fumbled the ball, ruining a shot at two (and a sure out, at least). Pujols followed with HR #599 to put the Angels up. But the inning was just starting for the Braves. With a runner on, Simmons hit a grounder to - basically - his replacement at short, but Swanson completely whiffed (again) on what should have been out #3, maybe out #4. Up next was Ben Revere (yes, he's still in the bigs) who sent a weak grounder to first, but Matt Adams couldn't get the ball out of his glove. Another run scored. Next was Cliff Pennington, who sent another weak little nubber to the hapless Braves infield - this time to Colon. The runner was going, but nobody told Colon, who tried to throw to second and then, for reasons unknown, decided to try to go home instead. He slipped and his throw home was late. Jesus, this is a lot of writing. After a liner to center scored yet another run, another grounder went the way of Colon who attempted the third or fifth double play of the inning, but it got passed Peterson and went into center field. A bunt happened next because the Braves weren't being embarrassed enough. Peterson was late covering first and Adams' throw was late anyway. When it was all said-and-done, nine runs had scored and only two were earned. On the bright side...Matt Kemp and Tyler Flowers each homered and the bullpen tossed 5.2 scoreless innings.

May 31, 2-1 LOSS @ Angels
Jaime Garcia threw seven superb innings and allowed just an unearned run, but the Braves offense could only crank out five hits off Jesse Chavez and just one over Bud Norris. One of those hits was Matt Kemp's tenth homer. The game was decided in the eighth when another former Brave, Eric Young Jr., hit a homerun.

June 1, OFF

June 2, 3-2 LOSS @ Reds (10 innings)
Mike Foltynewicz pitched a gem, but the bullpen couldn't hold a 2-0 lead. Folty struck out ten over seven innings and scattered just a pair of singles, but after Vizcaino's sketchy eighth, the ninth was when things got really bad. Jim Johnson gave up a pair of doubles and a wild pitch on a ball that Tyler Flowers didn't get in front of led to a tie game and a blown save. In the bottom of the tenth, Devin Mesoraco homered off Jose Ramirez to end it. Inciarte, Flowers, Swanson, and the returning Adonis Garcia all had two hits with Swanson hitting his fifth homer of the year. Matt Kemp added three hits.

June 3, 6-5 WIN @ Reds (12 innings)
The Braves wasted a 5-1 lead, but the bullpen stayed strong late in this one as the Braves pulled out the extra innings victory. With R.A. Dickey on the mound, the Braves erased an early 1-0 hole with a monster fifth inning. After an error, a walk, and a hard single loaded the bases, Matt Adams smacked a Grand Slam. Later in the inning, Swanson singled in Garcia. Starting for the second consecutive game, Garcia had four hits, including a double, and stole a pair of bags. However, the Braves quickly gave the runs back in the sixth. An HBP, an error, and a walk loaded them before a single brought home a runner and chased Dickey. Jason Motte then walked home a runner before giving up a two-run single. It remained 5-5 until the 12th when Adams unloaded for the second time in the game and fifth time overall in the two weeks since the Braves acquired him. Jim Johnson, who blew a game the previous night, threw two solid innings in relief. The pen as a whole tossed 6.2 scoreless innings, though Motte did allow three inherited runners to score.

June 4, 13-8 WIN @ Reds
In a wild game, the Braves outslug the Reds to take the series. Atlanta went up 1-0 in the first inning but quickly fell behind 2-1. They would score the next eight runs and though the Reds didn't go away, the Braves would never trail again. Inciarte had his second 5-hit game of the year and hit his sixth homerun, matching his career high. Danny Santana added two doubles, a homer, and a single for a big afternoon. Johan Camargo doubled and walked while Flowers was on base four times and scored each time. The only real negative was Teheran, who gave up seven runs over five ineffective innings.

This week: 3-3
Season: 24-30 tied for 2nd in NL East, 10.5 GB

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves return home for a busy week of baseball in front of the home fans. The Phillies come to town for four evening games to begin the week. Next up is the Mets for another four games as Saturday will include a day/night doubleheader. Sunday's game is also a day game and as always, it's a Alumni Sunday game. On hand will be Denny Neagle, Alejandro Pena, Jose Alvarez, and 1995 NLCS MVP Mike Devereaux.

Three Last Things

Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

1) Let's Krol
Earned Run Average is a terrible thing for a reliever. Back in 2002, John Smoltz gave up eight runs in his second game of the year. It was his first full season as a reliever. His ERA would remain over 5 for the next two months and only went under 4 to stay in August. His ERA after that second game was 2.40.

Ian Krol's ERA stands at 5.48, but like Smoltz in '02, it doesn't tell nearly the whole story. Over his last seven outings since May 18, Krol has worked 7.2 innings. He's allowed just one hit, which happens to count for the only run he's allowed (a solo homerun). He's walked four batters and struck out ten. Few outings were more important than Sunday's. With a tired bullpen, Krol entered with the game still in doubt at 11-8. He missed Zack Cozart and Joey Votto, the best hitters in the Reds lineup, but still breezed through all six batters he faced while striking out half of them. The outing dropped his FIP an entire half-run.

Krol was excellent in 2016 with a 2.91/2.97/2.81 FIP/xFIP/SIERA. One of the developments that led to last season's success, beyond improved control, was the ability to induce grounders. Last year, it was 57%. Over his first 15 games this year, it was down nearly twenty points to 39%. Over his last seven, it's back up to 57%.

It's a long season and while early season struggles can wreck a reliever's ERA, Krol is trending in the right direction toward better full-season numbers.

2) His Name is Travey and He's Pretty Much a Big Deal
In his first season above A-ball, Travis Demeritte has done some interesting things. He's lowered his strikeout rate under 25% - no small feat for a player who routinely K'd a third of the time. While the batting average (.264) hasn't been where he wished it would be, his wOBA has been around .360/.370 most of the season. On Saturday, he bashed a pair of homers and added his tenth homer on Sunday.

But what makes Demeritte even more noteworthy is where he's been playing of late. On May 21, he shifted from second base to third base and has stayed there for the last thirteen games. While Ozzie Albies hasn't set the world on fire in Gwinnett, he remains the second baseman of the near future. Accepting that and seeing how Demeritte responds to third base is only natural for the Braves.

3) Just Look At the Flowers
Hitting fourth on Sunday was Adonis Garcia, a player who, despite six hits in two games since being activated off the DL, is not the type of player you expect to see in the cleanup spot. Two spots below him was Tyler Flowers. Before 2016, it would have been ridiculous to hit Flowers anywhere near the top of the lineup. Now, it seems absurd to continue to bat him in the six-hole.

Flowers reached base four times on Sunday. It increased his already stellar OBP to .475. It is the top OBP of any hitter that has stepped up to the plate at least 130 times this season. Yet, only twenty of those plate appearances have come while hitting higher in the order than sixth.

Flowers isn't going to hit .365 all season with a .475 OBP and .422 wOBA. But while he is, shouldn't the Braves be in position to take advantage of it? Flowers is currently one of the hottest hitters in baseball and even in a lineup that is producing at a much higher rate than expected, the Braves are failing to maximize that the production from Flowers. While it might be convenient to keep him there to keep the lineup alternating lefties and righties as much as possible, it's still a waste. Hit Flowers third or fourth and make the lineup even more dynamic.

Random Prospect Sunday - Randy Ventura

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

There's speed and then there's Randy Ventura speed. The hyper-quick 19-year-old has some attractive skills - some of which made Jose Peraza and Mallex Smith intriguing to Braves' fans over the last few seasons. Will Ventura follow their path to the majors? Hard to bet against him at this point.

Born July 11, 1997, Ventura has the rare honor of being born on the same day as a Tom Glavine stinker. Glavine surrendered eight runs on that day to the Mets, getting beat up by the likes of Manny Alexander, Rey Ordonez, and Bernard Gilkey. That wasn't Ventura's fault, of course. A Dominican Republic native, Ventura was born in Pimentel, a city that hasn't been quite as active in producing major league talent as others like San Cristobal and Santo Domingo.

Ventura was not a highly regarded youngster as the 2014-15 international signing market opened up. Rather than signing in July like many prospects, the switch-hitter waited and waited until February 13, when the Braves finally signed him. Atlanta was under new management and had recently grabbed international guru Gordon Blakely from the Yankees. Perhaps Ventura was one of his guys. Either way, the soon-to-be 18-year-old quickly endeared himself to the organization. Typically, prospects spend a year at the international complex sharpening their skills, but Ventura was assigned to the Dominican Summer League just four months after signing. He was given the starting center fielder assignment and opened the season in the leadoff spot. Hell of a few months for him.

The scrawny kid predictably showed little in terms of power, but he didn't need to hit doubles. His legs turned singles into doubles via the stolen base. In 58 games, Ventura hit .329 and swiped 55 bases in just 64 attempts. It took fellow speedster Mallex Smith 67 more games - and a steal in the season's final game - to overtake Ventura for the organizational lead. To be fair, stolen base totals are inflated in the DSL by raw pitchers who don't hold runners well and equally raw catchers. Nevertheless, that many steals in that short amount of time is still an accomplishment. Over the last ten years, only two other players have reached the 50-steal plateau in the DSL and just one has surpassed Ventura's 55 steals.

Ventura also showed tremendous plate discipline with 35 walks to 27 strikeouts. Again, we should preface this by saying DSL pitchers aren't exactly renowned for control. Nevertheless, when a player on-bases .421, it's enough to open up some eyes. It definitely opened mine as I ranked Ventura #25th
in my preseason Top 50 prospects. But I had nearly added Elias Arias to my Top 30 rankings the previous year after a good year in the DSL. Arias has since been cut.

Clearly, that didn't happen with Ventura, but he started 2016 with a few extra eyes on him and not all of that was related to his production in the DSL. The previous year, for all of its great accomplishments, ended with a car crash right before the season ended. He suffered a left shoulder blade injury in the crash. Months later, he was assigned to join the Gulf Coast club to open 2016. He would no longer be the everyday center fielder - Cristian Pache was more highly regarded handled the position until he was promoted. Venture also...just wasn't as effective. He continued to walk at a nice rate (11%) but the ball stopped finding as many holes. His wOBA fell from .404 to .340.

On the plus side, Ventura was young for the level and 166 of his 227 PA came against pitchers older than him. He also finished with a .380 OBP over his final 80 PA. However, the weapon that had garnered him so much attention in the first place - his speed - wasn't showing up. He swiped just 15 bases - 40 fewer than the previous year - and was caught six times. Even accepting that GCL catchers are better at cutting down runners than DSL ones, it was still a considerable disappointment. His speed did appear on August 6 when, with two outs and the bases loaded, Ventura finished a five-run rally that began with a Griffin Benson homer with a homer of his own - a Grand Slam. Not only that but an inside-the-park Grand Slam homerun. Ventura finished the game with five ribbies.

Expected to receive a promotion to Danville, Ventura was a mild surprise in that he skipped past the Virginia stop to begin 2017 in Rome. So far this season, we have seen the very good and the suspect from Ventura. On the suspect side, his walk rate has been cut in half from the roughly 12% he carried over his first two seasons. In addition, his strikeout rate is up about 6%. His ISO has also declined nearly by half. These are not promising trends. On the bright side, he's hitting a cool .333, good for third in the league, and has swiped 18 bases, one off the pace for the league lead. He hasn't homered and has just five extra-base hits, including one triple. One last negative is that his .410 BABIP is unlikely to continue.

With three seasons of data, we can make a few observations on Ventura. Sticking to the theme, he's fast. Freaky fast. He possesses good bat control and even though the strikeouts are climbing, I think he'll be a high contact guy. The plate discipline decline this season is worrisome but could disappear by the season's end. He has good instincts in the outfield and only the presence of Pache is limiting him to right field rather than center, where he has the skills to play but Pache is simply better. Ventura's arm isn't bad, but I haven't seen much to suggest it's much of a weapon.

The big question for Ventura moving forward is if he'll ever develop an ounce of pop in his bat. A career .057 ISO typically will ruin any hope a player has of progressing no matter how fast he is. You have to flash some pop here-and-there at least. Bill Ballew of Baseball America (subscription required) thinks there is undiscovered pop in his bat. If he can smack the occasional homer and increase his extra-base ability, he'll have enough intriguing skills to climb the prospect ladder.

Ventura is a fun prospect to watch because he already possesses a top-grade tool and a couple of other B-grade tools. What he needs now is to increase his lowest grade tools to a more respectable level. As he attempts to do just that, enjoy watching the player that he is now because every time the bat is in his hands or he's on base, something eye-popping could occur.

More Random Prospects...
Evan Phillips (5/28/17)
Kevin Josephina (5/14/17)
Jacob Webb (3/5/17)

Walk Off Talk 1.1: Can the Braves Rotation Improve?

In this new series, Ryan Cothran and I have a back-and-forth as we discuss a subject. It's informal and we hope you guys get something out of it. This week, we’ll look at the starting pitching staff. At times, we’ll agree. Other times, we’ll disagree. Join the conversation and tell us where we are misguided in the comment section. 

Ryan,

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Thank God for the Reds. I mean it. Without them, the Braves might have the worst starting staff in baseball. They came into Friday with a 4.81 ERA and 5.14 FIP. The only good thing you possibly say about their collective performance to this point is that they have given the Braves innings. Not a wealth of good innings, but innings just the same.

No matter where you look, there is massive disappointment. Let's start with Bartolo Colon. Two months in and he's only hitting the strikezone on 50% of his pitches according to PITCHf/x. It was 57-58% with the Mets. That might not sound like a lot of difference, but when you depend entirely on getting hitters to swing at your pitch, it's worrisome to me. And what's worse is that his zone rate is declining as the season progresses rather than improving. His last start, against the Pirates, saw him hit a typical strikezone according to PITCHf/x just 48% of the time. You can't throw quality starts that way when you don't have the stuff to entice hitters into swinging at balls out of the zone.

Please tell me I'm just being pessimistic. Tell me that Bartolo Colon will turn it around.

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Tommy, you’re putting me in a pickle here and that’s the real dill.

I can’t tell you for sure that Bartolo will turn it around as I’ve always been befuddled Bartolo stayed effective when everyone knew what was coming and that it wasn’t going to be with a swiftness. As you eluded to, it was his ability to control the entire strike zone with pitches darting to-and-fro that brought him success. His K/9 are the lowest they’ve been since 2013, and his BB/9 is the highest since 2011. However, his BABIP against is at .341, well above his .291 career mark, and there aren’t any velocity changes to warrant that type of increase, which leads back to location. FIP and xFIP suggest Bartolo’s ERA will likely drop, but even taking that into consideration, it’s still high (5 or above) and not what you’d want from a pitcher. So, will he improve? In all likelihood, yes. Will he be effective? I cannot say yes with confidence.

I suggested this a few days back in a Tweet and it’s something that I hope Coppy is checking on, and that is a bad contract swap. Braves have pitchers that could benefit from MLB time (Sean Newcomb or Lucas Sims) but Kris Medlen will likely be ready before either of them. If the Braves could land someone like Todd Frazier in exchange for Bartolo and have the Toddfather platoon at 1st (or 3B), it could create a win that helps strengthen 4 areas:

-Platoon of Rio Ruiz and Adonis Garcia at 3B
-Platoon of Matt Adams and Todd Frazier at 1B
-Bench strengthen with 2 of the above available to pinch hit
-Remove Bartolo, insert Kris Medlen

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Ryan,

I would love to have optimism that a team would be interested in acquiring Colon. Right now, I just can’t see it. There definitely is room for improvement, but like you point out, even if his BABIP regresses closer to his career and his LOB%, which is a shockingly low 58%, is closer to his career rate of about 73%, unless he’s able to improve his ability to throw quality strikes, this looks like the end of the road for Colon.

This is supposed to be the prime of Julio Teheran’s career, though. He's in his Age-26 season and came into 2017 with four full years in the majors. In three of those four seasons, he had between a 2.5 fWAR and 3.2 fWAR. He's remarkably durable and consistent outside of 2015. So...what is the problem here?

A lot has been made of his home struggles. I'm not sure I really buy that being a big factor, but the results definitely give us some reason to think SunTrust Park has not been a friend to him. Unlike Colon, it's a bit harder to find a stat and say, "there! There's the smoking gun." He's throwing a bit less in the strikezone, though only 2% less than last year when he was very successful.

On one hand, it's probably a good thing that I can't figure out what's really wrong with Teheran beyond bad performance. Might mean it's mechanical and an easier fix. With Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens, even if I was too young to see it, the warning signs were there (most notably decreased velocity). Teheran doesn't have that glaring issue to me, but what do you think?

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Tommy,

Thanks for the flower arrangement welcoming me to the blog, but the xoxo’s were a bit much. My wife wasn’t impressed.

Lastly before I get to firstly, Bartolo’s been worth 0.3 fWAR, Frazier 0.1fWAR, both under contract for this year, and ChiSox could be just as desperate for Frazier to go seeing as though they have a 3B playing well and a need at SP. Dream big, my friend.

Onward to Teheran, it’s all about the splits man, and I think the league is fully aware now as teams have been challenging him by playing their left-handed hitters more regularly against him, It’s paying off for them as well...to the tune of an .874 OPS. This isn’t a new problem as his career splits against numbers against LHHs aren’t much lower, .797 OPS. But this next part is new. Check this out:

Career PAs against Julio Teheran

• RHHs- 1819 (50.4%)
• LHHs- 1823 (49.6%)

Nearly identical, eh?  Now look at this year

2017 PAs against Julio Teheran

• RHHs- 120 PAs (43.7%)
• LHHs- 152 PAs (56.3%)

Yes...the league knows, Julio. So what to do? Unfortunately for the Braves, they’re playing in a new park that doesn’t bode well for Julio and his problems against left-handed hitters (LHHs vs. Julio at Suntrust, 1.186 OPS), but surely there’s something that can be done.  Well...maybe. If I were trying to fix Julio, it’d be to completely change his approach when facing lefties. Sure, keep the arsenal full, but throw the arm-side moving pitches much less (which have been destroyed by LHHs), focus more on the 4-seamer, the slider, and keep them low. Big shoutout to Lee Trocinski for aiding me in this research!

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Ryan,

You will take your hugs and kisses and like it. It’s the Walk-Off Walk way.

That sounded entirely too illegal.

Anyway, moving on, the bit on Teheran is very interesting. It’ll be something to watch moving forward if the disparity continues, but we definitely need to see improvement. We’ve seen that from the lefthander in the rotation. Jaime Garcia, a career #3 or #4 pitcher, is pitching like a #3 or #4. Or in Atlanta Braves 2017 terms, an ace. But am I right to think that it's Garcia - not Colon - that should get the boot from the team first? Preferably in a trade to acquire a decent prospect or two?

I know this will wreck the team's distant hope to get into the Wild Card argument, but as I always try to do in fantasy baseball, sell-high. Garcia's ERA of 3.18 is over a run less than his FIP and xFIP. He's unlikely to keep his BABIP 50 points below his career average all season either. Is Garcia, who seems like the least of our troubles, the guy the Braves should consider dealing the most?

I should say - in his defense - his last three starts have been excellent. FIP around 2.70, 21.2 innings, just five walks, and a groundout rate over 70%. He's hot right now and maybe his FIP will drop rather than his ERA explode. But the little John Coppolella that lives in all of us Armchair GMs is feeling antsy. Have to get my fix and make a trade happen and selling high on Garcia seems, to me, like the right route. What say you?

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Tommy the Tulip,

Like most pill-pushers of the planet, no argument here on the idea of “selling high” on “High-May”. The point I’ll lay my hat on is his health. He went three years in which staying on the field was a big challenge and it just seems like Braves have guys in the MILB that are ready to test the waters that won’t be a big dropoff in production. Jaime being able to stay on the field AND stay productive has been a pleasant surprise, but let’s not push it. Trade him and let’s see Newk get a shot. Might I suggest Cleveland for a destination? They’re riding the struggle bus in starting pitching and also lack a LH starter. Maybe Braves could get Cleveland to sell low on Brady Aiken? It seems almost too easy, right?

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RyGuy,

It’s scary how quickly you concur with me. The kool-aid has worked quite well.

I was very much on the Mike Foltynewicz bandwagon coming out of last season. He appeared to grow up as last season progressed with a few stinkers mixed in, but this season has been a mixed bag with some success and a good deal of failure. His velocity is good and his control (previously thought of as a problem) is actually an asset. But the K's are down 3%, the homers are on the rise, and he's not getting a lot of soft contact. At 16.9%, his Soft% is down about 3.5%.

Certainly, it's not time to give up on Folty and regression is never good to see. Nevertheless, I want to believe he'll improve as the season progresses. Maybe it's just a need to feel optimistic about something. So, to paraphrase Futurama, why not Foltberg?

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Twinkle-toes Tommy,

Folty has been Fol-tee on several occasions this year as he’s served up a few on a platter.  When the trade went down in which Braves sent Evan Gattis to the Astros for Folty,  Rio Ruiz, and Andrew Thurman, my heart was torn out. More than any other trade the Braves had/have made. Loved Gattis, the story, and loved his ability to defy all the doubters and become a good MLB catcher. After the initial sting, I looked at the 3 in return and still wasn’t enthused. I’ll admit that I thought Folty was destined to the bullpen, Rio destined for life in AAA, and Thurman, maybe, a long reliever at best. Time will tell who “won” the trade, but it looks like the scale is tilting toward the Braves with Rio’s recent call-up and success. Back to Folty…before we get into debating his future, let’s look at his 4 pitches with the aid of Pitcher List.

I’m no pitching expert here, but in comparing his best game vs. his worst game, both games essentially show the same data:  No matter the location, up, down, middle, he’s very effective when he stays on the outer ⅓ of the plate. Also, the slider seems to be his pitch that either looks GREAT...or sits over the PLATE with no movement.  It’s been his least effective pitch for his career yet he’s throwing it nearly ¼ of the time. In the video above, the slider looks very hittable with little movement. However, I can understand the reasoning why Folty would like to keep it because when he has it, it’s phenomenal. Here’s a video of one of his best.

It seems the secret to his slider success is to keep the velocity up, as the samples that I have seen in which it’s deadly is when it’s in the lower 90s, not mid-80s, although throwing the slider at an increased speed could lead to injury. Such a fine balance.

I don’t know Folty personally so this next piece is just heresy, but if it’s a between-the-ears issue, making Mike a 3 pitch pitcher, focusing on harnessing the fastball, slider (or curveball), and changeup, could be a good decision. While it’s stereotypical for a starting pitcher to have 4 pitches, a good hard fastball that’s complimented with a nasty change and slider would suffice plenty. While his curveball has been effective this year, it’s also the pitch that batters can lift and in Suntrust that’s not good.

So, my overall suggestion: Stay on the outer ⅓, ditch a pitch, keep the increased velo on slider, use the change as the true out-pitch that it can be, and master 3 instead of 4.

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Ryu,

I think that might be a good trick to getting him rolling in the right direction. I admit I wasn’t hugely thrilled about Folty to begin with and considered him more of a reliever than a starter. The bullpen still may be his best role in the majors, but it’s definitely worth trying out every single possible thing to try to get him turned into the right direction. The kid has a lot of projection still left in that flamethrowing right arm.

Lastly, there’s R.A. Dickey. He’s been bad - worse than I thought he was going to be but I still have this feeling that he’ll still post a high 4 ERA, low 5 FIP, high 4 xFIP. Basically, exactly what you think of a fifth starter. He gives you innings and not much else. On a team with a better rotation, that wouldn’t be a bad thing.

I guess I just don’t care too much about Dickey’s performance. He’s underperformed what I expected out of him for sure, but I didn’t expect all that much in general. Am I wrong to basically give him a pass?

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I don’t normally go for W/L record as a measurement for a starting pitcher, but the Braves are 5-5 when R.A. is on the mound, and that’s about what I expect of him. As many games as he’ll help you win, he’ll help the other team win as well. The downside of Dickey (and I’ve never thought about this until Lee Trocinski brought it up) is that ERA is not a full measurement of a knuckleballer as passed balls are just going to be part of the game. In 60 innings (or 6 ⅔ games if you’re measuring by ERA), RA has 4 unearned runs and Kurt Suzuki is leading the National League in passed balls. Therefore, if you’re measuring RA by ERA, ya might want to add an extra 0.3-0.5 to it so it reflects his true production.

Honestly, RA being in the rotation is so meh to me I don’t even know why I wrote a paragraph on it. I was meh when he was signed, and still meh after 10 starts. However, if his option is picked up, I’ll be much worse off than meh, and I’ll likely let this blog and Twitter know of my displeasure.

So, for this year...fine. Whatever. Eat innings. Save the arms, the whales, save everyone. He seems like a good dude and is easy to root for, so let’s just leave it at that.