Braves Acquire Brandon Phillips for Practically Nothing

By Rdikeman (Own work) [Public domain],
via Wikimedia Commons

The Cincinnati Reds spent the offseason trying to find a new home for Brandon Phillips. They nearly sent him to Atlanta in January, but Phillips balked at the deal. He wanted further assurances that his no-trade protection would be respected even as a trade would typically negate any 10/5 conditions - or 10 years in the majors, 5 years with the same team.

In the end, the Braves and Phillips came to an agreement with the Braves honored a limited no-trade clause that blocks trades to a dozen teams that was already part of the deal. Those dozen teams are unknown to this point, but most of the time, each year, a list is filed of teams the player would not accept a trade to. One can assume the list includes teams with the least chance to be successful in 2017, though cities Phillips is not fond of may also be included. Further, the Braves agreed to pay Phillips a bonus of $500,000 in the event that he's traded.

The money part of this deal is very fascinating. Shortly after the 2012 season began, Phillips agreed on a six-year, $72.5M contract extension with the Reds that went into effect that year. After making $12.5M in the first year of the deal, he went down to $10M the following year and with each subsequent season, his salary went up $1M. This year, the final season of that deal, is worth $14M. There are also other conditions like award bonuses ($75K for All-Star selection) and some deferred money (unsure about the specifics there). What is most interesting about this deal is that the Braves are on the hook for just $1M for the 2017 season with the Reds covering the rest of the money.

The Braves completed this deal without having to surrender a prospect. Lefty Andrew McKirahan and righty Carlos Portuondo will head to the Reds in the deal. McKirahan is the more interesting name of the two because he pitched in 27 games for the Braves two years ago. A former Cubs farmhand, McKirahan was a 2015 Rule 5 pick by the Marlins. At the time, he was coming off his Age-24 season split between High-A ball and Double-A where he had a 2.08 ERA and a 4 K/BB rate.

After failing to make the Marlins, McKirahan was waived and picked up by the Braves. His time with the Braves was interrupted after three games because of a PED suspension. Once able to return in late July, McKirahan was a regular member of Fredi Gonzalez's bullpen. His final 19 games were especially ugly, though. In 18 innings, he gave up 16 runs while striking out 14. Last spring, he was expected to compete for a bullpen spot, but a recommendation of a second Tommy John surgery ended his bid. He was not expected to compete for a bullpen spot this spring.

Portuondo, who spent eight years in Cuba's top baseball league, lasted just one year in the Braves' system after Atlanta gave the defector $900K nearly a year ago. A fastball/slider pitcher with decent movement on his low 90's heater, Portuondo spent last year with Carolina and Gwinnett. His numbers were pedestrian with some poor control, especially for a 28-year-old.

To sum up, the Braves surrendered two minor league bullpen depth arms and absorbed a million dollars for a three-time All-Star, four-time Gold Glove winner, and one-time Silver Slugger. Of course, to be fair, Brandon Phillips is not that guy anymore. His game took a step backward after 2011. Since then, his wOBA has been between .300 and .325 with a five-year average of .313. His wRC+ has been anywhere between 88 and 101 with a 94 average. After a number of years as one of the top ten or so second baseman in the game, he's a borderline Top 20 second baseman now.

Projections for Phillips - take them with a grain of salt because they include the Reds park - obviously did not expect much of an improvement for a guy entering his Age-36 season. PECOTA projected .269/.306/.390 with 12 homers, 10 steals, and a 0.7 WARP. Steamer expected similar results. That said, if Phillips's bat ultimately performs closer to the last two seasons rather than the two projections I mentioned, the Braves are getting a guy who hit .293/.324/.405 over his last 1200 or so PA with a .315 wOBA and 95 wRC+. Not a great improvement, mind you, but a more valuable player than the PECOTA/Steamer version.

While we are on the subject of value, we cannot ignore that Phillips' declining value hasn't been solely a result of his bat. His UZR/150 was between 8.1 and 12.3 for five years before 2015. That season, it fell to 2.1. Last season, it was -2.3. Strong DRS and rPM numbers both cratered last year. Defensive metrics are notoriously unreliable for just one season, but it seems clear that Phillips has lost a step and his instincts aren't nearly as quick. He turns 36 in June so that shouldn't be surprising. How far his defense deteriorates, however, could be something to watch. If he's at least average, the Braves will be happy.

By SD Dirk [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Where does Phillips fit in? Well, the Braves clearly felt pressure to make a move in response to Sean Rodriguez's car accident. A lot is still unknown about just how severe Rodriguez's shoulder surgery was as I've heard between 3-6 months of recuperation time as a possible time table.On the other hand, David O'Brien tweeted that "most if not all" of the 2017 season could be lost for Rodriguez. Expected to platoon with Jace Peterson at second, Rodriguez was a solid addition for the Braves this offseason before the injury. Here's the bad news - Phillips is not a better platoon option. He has carried a reverse split the last three years of .286 wOBA/76 wRC+ against lefties and .319 wOBA/98 wRC+ against righties. Peterson showed potential platoon ability by putting up a .326 wOBA and 101 wRC+ last year against righties. Relegating Peterson to just backup duty would appear short-sighted, though the injury to Rodriguez and lack of a clear option for a fourth outfielder might prompt the Braves to do just that.

Of course, Phillips is only a stopgap. He would be that even if he weren't a free agent following the 2017 season. Ozzie Albies is on his way and while his numbers at Triple-A were underwhelming, it's important to remember that the biggest reason the Braves demoted him back to Mississippi was to get time at second with Dansby Swanson. In Albies' final 21 games at Triple-A, he hit .282/.367/.376. I wouldn't call that a guy needing a demotion to Double-A. Nevertheless, at just 20 years-old and one season above A-ball - plus an injury to end 2016 - the Braves would like to go slow with Albies. The 2017 roster looks like it could compete for a playoff slot, but avoiding arbitration for another year while letting Albies mature more could be the better play for the Braves.

When he's ready, though, Phillips could be repackaged. The Braves may hold on to him if they are in a playoff race, believing his veteran presence and decent bat off the bench could be useful. On the other hand, a good season for Phillips could mean that the Braves not only got the Reds to pay 93% of his salary, but they also potentially landed a better prospect in a trade than McKirahan or Portuondo - which isn't hard because neither are prospects. That, my friends, is why John Coppolella will be named Executive of the Year at some point.

There's really nothing to be upset about with this trade. The injury to Rodriguez created a need and while the two players aren't the same type of player, Phillips helps to fill that need while costing the Braves next to nothing in the process. In a few years, if a retrospective was done on this trade, the Braves either win this trade or at least don't lose it. That is the kind of deal you make every single time.

Spring Roster Battles Preview - The Fifth Starter

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 3.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Football's done (sorry Falcons fans) and that means one glorious thing - baseball is just around the corner. In fact, in a few days, the Atlanta Braves will open spring training as pitchers and catchers report followed by the rest of the team. With all the negative in the world, spring training is a beautiful thing as it's impossible to not be a little optimistic. For Braves' fans, even as terrible as the last few years have been, it's an exciting time as this squad looks improved and a potential sleeper for a playoff slot.

If they get there, it will start with the rotation. Last season, only the Reds had a worse fWAR (4.7 to 3.1) from their starters. Unsurprisingly, the Braves rotation finished in the bottom 5 in FIP and xFIP and sixth worse in SIERA. The Braves were especially horrid in the second half. Over 72 starts, the rotation managed 0.3 fWAR. Ouch.

But 2017 promises to be different. The Braves added a trio of veterans to plug into the rotation as their younger arms continue to mature and they will join rotation leader Julio Teheran. To be fair, it's unlikely the Braves will compete with the Nationals and Mets as far as top rotations in the East, but it should be good enough to be closer to the league average, especially as 2017 opens. Presumably, a young gun or two will get a chance to push a veteran out of the mix from there.

Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia, R.A. Dickey, and Teheran make up four. Who will join them? Let's take a look at the contenders.

The Presumptive Choice - Mike Foltynewicz

Folty's step forward in 2016 appeared to make him safe from needing to reclaim his rotation spot, but the additions of the three veterans - plus further flirting with Chris Archer and the like - meant that the Braves were not convinced that the hard-throwing righty had done enough to deserve an easy path onto 2017's roster. To be fair, Foltynewicz clearly has a foot in the door here. His work down the stretch makes that clear. After a 5.09 FIP during the first half, he finished the second half with a 3.68 FIP. That's promising though his xFIP shows a much smaller 18 point difference.

Looking at some of the changes in the second half versus the first half, one thing that stands out is more confidence in his changeup. It has given him a better weapon against lefties as a strikeout pitch. He doesn't use it much against righties, but it could be a weapon as he refines it. All in all, Foltynewicz certainly took a step forward and will be given an opportunity to do the same in 2017.

The Replaced - Aaron Blair and Matt Wisler

With the three veteran additions to the rotation, Blair and Wisler were put on notice - produce or enjoy Gwinnett. For Blair, it was much-needed after a poor first run in the majors. He struggled with Mike Minor Disease, a condition that forces pitchers to nibble around the strike zone to the point that they fall behind and are forced to throw strikes in hitter's counts. For example, Blair threw a first-pitch strike 4% fewer than the average pitcher and was in the zone 5% less. Subsequently, hitters swung more at pitches in the zone and made more contact because they were able to narrow their batting eye rather than be defensive in pitcher's counts. Blair has the potential to be an effective major league pitcher, but only after he trusts his stuff.

Matt Wisler was easily Atlanta's most disappointing pitcher last year. After a strong five-game run with the big league club over the final few weeks in 2015 (34.2 ING, 9 BB, 24 K, 2.34 ERA), Wisler was tabbed to slot into Shelby Miller's #2 spot. That mistake explains why the Braves were so anxious to bring in some more established pitchers for 2017. Wisler's numbers over the first couple of months looked great from a basic ERA standpoint, though a deeper look shows some questionable trends (.232 BABIP, xFIP near 5.00). In the second half, those trends pushed his ERA as high as 5.16.

Wisler is similar to Blair in many ways. Neither pitcher will rack up the strikeouts and instead, both will depend more on getting ahead and fooling the hitter into making soft contact. Wisler has struggled to do that. Despite solid walk numbers, he's thrown a first-pitch strike 58.8% of the time, about 2% below average. With his stuff and control, he needs to be above average with his location to be effective because we know hitters are going to make contact.

The Veteran - Josh Collmenter

At this point, we have a good idea who Collmenter is. He won't strike out many batters, won't walk many batters, and will surrender a fair number of gopher balls. His control was actually iffy last year before a 19-inning run with the Braves seemed to help. Surprisingly, he was brought back for 2017, though his chances to rejoin the rotation are minimal. Still, Collmenter has a good chance to break camp as the long guy out of the pen and be in line for some emergency starts as needed.

The "He's Still Around?" Minor Leaguers - Joel De La Cruz, John Danks, and Kris Medlen

This trio received minor league deals since the end of the season. De La Cruz is a Gordon Blackley special - a guy with Yankee minor league ties who the Braves later brought aboard. They haven't had much success with these longshots and De La Cruz wasn't anything special last year (5.19/5.03/5.09 FIP/xFIP/SIERA). That said, the Braves are comfortable with him and he gives them more starting pitching depth to stash at Gwinnett in case they need an emergency start and don't want to press a kid into the role.

As a lefty, Danks is likely around to compete for a bullpen slot, but with Teheran and Colon in the World Baseball Classic, there are innings to fill and a guy like Danks will have an opportunity. He hasn't been good since 2011 and was cut four starts into 2016 by the White Sox. As I wrote about Danks before, "consider that the Braves turned Bud Norris, Jhoulys Chacin, and Lucas Harrell into future assets last year." Does that mean they will do the same with Danks? Probably not.

I mentioned Medlen, but he won't be able to contribute until summer - if at all - and might only be a relief option. However, I wanted to mention Medlen in case you hadn't heard about it.

The Top Prospects - Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims

Both of these top pitching prospects will be in camp. Both have put up big strikeout numbers. Both have garnered Top 100 prospect status in the past. Both struggle to fire consistent strikes.

Newcomb is the higher ceiling guy here. Some have soured heavily on him while others, like me, believe there was enough progress in the second half of last season to justify the high praise. In fact, with only five prospects remaining to be revealed as part of my Top 50 Prospects, Newcomb is one of the special handful still in the running for the top spot. I mean, you can probably guess who's #1 and you might be right, but Newcomb's still alive here.

For Newcomb, his season's lowest point came on July 8th when he threw 45 pitches and couldn't get out of the first inning. Despite his epic failure of an outing, he only allowed one hit. Yikes. In the ten starts to follow, he K'd 34% of the batters he faced while keeping his walk rate at an acceptable 11%. Despite an ERA a good run-and-a-half higher than 2015, his FIP was roughly the same.

Newcomb is a longshot to push Foltynewicz. For him, it's more about impressing the coaches enough to move up the depth chart when - not if - but when a spot opens up. While the Braves have a lot potential ace-quality pitchers below Double-A, Newcomb has more upside than any Braves pitcher vying for a spot on this year's roster. He'll have to show he can dominate again like he did down the stretch, but if he does, he'll be in the bigs this summer.

As for Sims, he came in at #18 on my Top 50. He was in a similar place last year as Newcomb is this year. After a so-so first half in 2015, Sims finished the season on a hot streak with Mississippi that had fans and coaches alike hoping that the light had turned on for the talented righty. After a brief cameo in a return trip to Mississippi to start 2016, Sims headed to Gwinnett in late April and his first two starts went well (12 ING, 3 R, 16 K). The wheels came off from there as his ERA hovered over 9.00 over the next nine games. By mid-June, he was demoted back to Mississippi and finished with nearly a K-an-inning and a 2.83 ERA over his final 14 starts.

Sims' walk rate has steadily gotten worse over the last two years as hitters at the advanced levels are better equipped to handle his heater and force him to throw quality breaking balls. He's still going to get his strikeouts, but without consistent secondary offerings, he can't show the batter something new the second-and-third time through the order. That alone might make him destined for the bullpen.

The Braves will try to give Sims time to change course and improve his chances to remain a starter, but with plenty of reinforcements coming in "waves," the time to get back on track is now for the young righthander. If it doesn't click by midseason, a potentially permanent move to the bullpen might be in the cards.

The Sleeper - Patrick Weigel

With just one full season under his belt, this 2015 7th rounder is an ultra longshot, but he did receive a non-roster invitation for a reason. By the end of last season, Weigel was pitching in the playoffs for Mississippi, which tells us a lot about both his maturity level and his performance considering his relatively brief professional career.

Weigel was a closer in college, which limited expectations for him once he was drafted. Now, though, after the season he had last year (over a K-an-inning, 2.47 ERA), the expectations are sky high for Weigel. A return to Mississippi to start 2017 is likely for the righty considering the depth at Gwinnett, but don't be shocked to see Weigel receive a lot of press this spring.

To Sum Up...

One spot, ten pitchers. Oh, and likely, it's more like zero spots because Foltynewicz would probably have to experience a miserable spring to get bumped from his spot. Short of injury, this article looks like a lot of words written to come to a simple conclusion - it's Folty's to lose.

But as I mentioned throughout, for the younger pitchers on this list, this might not be a battle to open the season as the fifth starter, but to claim the sixth starter spot. Another word for that is "next guy in." Consider this: Colon and Dickey are in their 40's and the body likes to break down frequently at that age while Garcia has rarely been healthy the last five or so years. The Braves may balk at bringing up a kid for a spot start when they can rely on a veteran like Collmenter or Quad-A depth like De La Cruz, but the chances that each starter makes 30 starts in 2017 is astronomical. There will be a need for a guy for at least a few weeks to step in. Who that is will depend some on whose schedule lines up the best to replace the downed pitcher, but it will also rely heavily on the depth chart. Who's Gwinnett's #1? That guy has the best shot to get a promotion when the need arrives.

The Braves used 16 different starters last year, including Casey Kelly, Roberto Hernandez, and Ryan Weber. The year before, they called on ten different starters and used Trevor Cahill and Eric Stults. That's the difference between those years and this season. The additions of three veterans and continued development of pitching prospects has given the Braves a chance to plug-and-play a number of interesting arms.

Who's your pick for fifth starter? Is it Foltynewicz short of an epic spring collapse? Did I leave a pitcher out of the discussion? Let me know below.

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: #10-#6

Just ten prospects to go in this year's Top 50. This week, I will cover the bottom half of the Top Ten. It's difficult to not repeat yourself when talking about these ridiculously talented young pitchers the Braves have. Four of them make today's list and none of them can go legally buy alcohol yet. All have off-the-charts stuff with a breaking pitch that can buckle the knees of opposing hitters. Once again, it's a good time to a Braves fan.

As always, there are links to previous Top 50 capsules and a summary of the Top 50 players that have already been released, including today's five.

10. Ian Anderson, RHP, 19 years-old, Grade: B

Did you know 2016's third overall selection's middle name is Theodore? I really wish he'd go by that instead of Ian. Theodore is a name Braves fans can chant as he strikes out Mookie Betts to end the 2019 World Series. I guess we can chant Ian, too, it just lacks a certain pizzazz. Oh, well, at least Atlanta will finally have another title, right?

The young righty was selected #3rd overall last year as much for his signability as his projectability, Anderson was a late signee only because he had to wait for his high school's graduation. Such a late start left him with just ten overall starts, split between the GCL squad and Danville. He was dominant during the first stop, striking out a batter for each 18 innings he threw and only allowing two unearned runs. He wasn't as good in Danville, but an 18-year-old holding his own there is plenty good in my book. In truth, he had one real stinker of a game on August 22, but was wonderful over his final two starts. A stinker can make your numbers look worse when you toss just 21.2 innings.

Anderson works off a mid-90's fastball that has a good deal of late life on it. His change-of-pace has plus potential at the major league level. A mid-80's pitch that he doesn't telegraph, it looks like a fastball right up until it dies at the plate and sinks under the swing of hitters. He also shows a curveball that he throws in high-70's to low-80's depending on how much looping break he wants on it.

What has always been impressive about Anderson, beyond his repertoire of pitches, is his poise and competitive nature on the mound. He might draw some comparisons to another slender right-hander who was a bulldog on the mound - Tim Hudson - though Anderson has better strikeout potential.

Anderson won't turn 19 until May 2. By that time, he'll likely be a few weeks into his first full season of professional ball with Rome. The sky is super high for Anderson as he moves into 2017. In a system with amazing pitching prospects, Ian Theodore Anderson has a chance to possibly be the best of the group.



9. Ronald Acuna, OF, 19 years-old, Grade: B

Playing winter ball in Australia is often an oddity of a player's career. You do it once, have a bunch of memories about vegemite and fighting kangaroos, and that's about it. However, Ronald Acuna turned a month in Australia into a Evan Gattis-like explosive experience. In 20 games for Melbourne, the Venezuelan talent hit .375/.446/.556 with 2 homers and 13 steals. So amazing was his run with the Aces that the team dubbed him "The Answer to Everything." At least they didn't hype him up too much.

It was a great way to end what had been a disappointing 2016 for Acuna. To be clear, Acuna was not disappointing with the bat as he still raked. No, Acuna hit the shelf with a broken thumb or hand on May 9th and would miss more than three months before finally getting back into action in late-August. He finished the season on a tear and carries a seven-game hit streak in 2017. Overall, in just 42 games, Acuna slashed .312/.392/.429 with 4 homers and 14 steals. Give the kid roughly a .380 wOBA for his efforts.

Oh, and because it needs to be said, Acuna was one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League. Despite his youth, he has shown advanced plate discipline (11.3% walk rate so far) and the potential to be a five-tool guy with his speed, defense, bat, and improving power. I can't speak too much on his arm, but I will say this - to only be credited with six outfield assists to this point next to two errors suggests that there may be a line in the scouting report that reads something like "If you run on him, be ready to grab your glove and head to your position." Just guessing, of course.

We only have 97 games - plus 20 games "down under" - to grade Acuna, but the ceiling is still being measured for the guy. Could he the best outfielder the Braves have developed since Andruw Jones? No pressure, but it's possible. With any luck, Acuna will stay in the lineup this year and we can see what the kid can do.


8. Touki Toussaint, RHP, 20 years-old, Grade: B+

The Braves did the right thing in 2016 by holding Touki back a season after he struggled in his brief run with Rome the previous season. Like many Rome players, he struggled to open the season, but improved as the season continued. Over his last 17 games, which includes 16 starts, Toussaint struck out 104 in 89.1 innings with a 2.72 ERA and an 11% walk rate compared to the 15% rate before June. By the end of the season, the South Atlantic League had had just about enough of Touki. With any luck, the Florida State League will have a similar feeling by the time next summer is heating up.

By now, you probably know the story about Toussaint. Picked #16th overall in the 2014 draft, the Braves essentially bought Toussaint off the Diamondbacks in 2015 by taking on Bronson Arroyo's bloated salary. It was the kind of insane deal that got Dave Stewart fired from his general manager position. You could count on one hand the number of players with a higher ceiling that Toussaint entering the 2014 draft. Despite that knowledge, the Diamondbacks said, "yeah, but Arroyo's contract is a bit too much." It must have been hard to be a Diamondbacks fan during the Stewart years.

One word to sum up Toussaint is "raw." Another word could be "projection." As in, Toussaint's projection is all over the map. He could become a dominant starter - the kind of starter with filthy stuff that leads a staff into the playoffs. He could also become a tremendous closer who racks up K's and saves. Or...he could be a bust. There doesn't appear to be a lot of leeway between, though logically, even as a bust, he could still have a good deal of value similar to Juan Cruz.

Nothing Toussaint throws at the hitter stays straight for long. His mid-90's fastball gets a good deal of break away from lefties and cuts into righties. His change-up has a similar drop to Ian Anderson's as it comes to the plate when Toussaint has a feel for it. Of course, Toussaint's calling card is a curveball that is GIF-worthy.

If Toussaint cleans up his delivery as he did in the second half of 2016 and continues to pound the zone with strikes to set up his curve, he's going to be pretty tough to stop. If you get a chance to watch him this season, do it. He's got the stuff to throw a perfect game any given start.


7. Luiz Gohara, LHP, 20 years-old, Grade: B+

Do you realize how good of a system the Braves have to have in order for a player of Gohara's stock to not only fail to rank as the top left-handed prospect in the system, but to also not even rank as the #2 southpaw prospect? Welcome to the Braves, Gohara. If you want to get to the front of the line, it's going to be a bit tougher than it was out west.

A rarity in baseball, Gohara was born in Brazil at the trading deadline in 1996. If you're curious, the Braves were quiet that day. Gohara is also a rarity in that he was still 16 years-old when he made his debut. Just to add to this because it shows how good the Mariners thought he could be, at 16 years-old, he made his debut in the Appalachian League for Pulaski. Sixteen years old. He didn't head to the Dominican Summer League or play with some high school kids in the Gulf Coast League. No, he went straight to the Appy League. The first batter he faced in his second game was Kyle Wren, who was six years older than Gohara. Two things have to happen to receive an assignment like that. The Mariners had to really love Gohara and they were convinced he was mature enough to handle it.

Since then, Gohara has both been babied to limit innings and slow to adapt to the professional game. Just to re-iterate a point: he's faced 914 batters during his four-year career. Roughly 70 came against guys younger than he was. Finally, in 2016, Gohara started to catch up. Still 2-to-3 years younger than the competition, Gohara decreased his walk rate from the previous year by about 7% (12.7% to 8.2%) and saw a similar increase in his strikeout rate. Already difficult to elevate the ball against, Gohara surrendered just two homeruns in 69.2 innings. He ended the year with 11.2 innings in the Arizona Fall League against far-more-advanced competition and struck out 19 compared to just three walks.

Why did Jerry Dipoto trade his talented left-hand prospect? There have been reports about work ethic issues and problems controlling his weight. He's a big boy, that's clear. But he's got tremendous athletism, which helps him repeat his delivery and pound the zone with a mid-90's fastball that can close in on triple digits.

Gohara's slider has plus potential and if he develops his changeup, the ceiling the Mariners originally saw in him will be much easier to reach. The Braves could start him in Rome, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him in Florida after his positive 2016 campaign. If there is ever a double header with Toussaint/Gohara going for the Florida Fire Frogs, I might have to drop everything and leave Virginia for that experience.



6. Mike Soroka, RHP, 19 years-old, Grade: B+

I'm getting tired of writing about all of these amazing pitching prospects.

Just kidding. I love it. Mike Soroka was just 18 when the South Atlantic League season began. He was less than a year removed from graduating from Bishop Carroll High School all the way up in Calgary. Despite that, the ever-aggressive Braves started him in Rome and he became one of Rome's most consistent starters. Almost half of his 24 starts were classified as quality starts. Ten times, Soroka threw at least five innings while allowing a run or less (which would be zero, fyi). He finished sixth in the league in innings pitched. Of the top 21 leaders in innings pitched during the 2016 South Atlantic League season, Soroka is the only one who wasn't in his age-20 season or older.

Just to make this clear, he was really good. Did I mention he's still a teenager? Like every Braves pitching prospect, he has a good heater that moves. For Soroka, he can reach the mid-90's, but stays a tick or two below that for the most part. He's fearless on the mound and already willing and confident to pitch inside with his fastball to set up his plus curveball. When he's got feel for his curve, he'll buckle a lot of right-handed batters' knees. His changeup needs work, but has good potential.

Soroka probably won't mimic some of the strikeout numbers of the other top pitching prospects the Braves have, but despite being a high school selection, I believe his floor is very high. My belief in his high floor is why I place him sixth in my rankings. I have a great deal of confidence that Soroka will reach that floor with a chance to be even better. His ceiling isn't as high as Toussaint's or Gohara's, but I love Soroka's chances to lock into a middle-of-the-rotation cog at the very least. If he develops his changeup a bit more - or adds a different offspeed delivery - Soroka has a chance to be an ace.



2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects*
5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions)
#52-43
#42-31
#30-21
#20-16
#15-11

The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales
41. Steve Janas
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder
30. Akeel Morris
29. Matt Withrow
28. Michael Mader
27. Juan Yepez
26. Christian Pache
25. Brett Cumberland
24. Luke Jackson
23. Derian Cruz
22. Braxton Davidson
21. Alex Jackson
20. Rio Ruiz
19. A.J. Minter
18. Lucas Sims
17. Patrick Weigel
16. Kyle Muller
15. Dustin Peterson
14. Joey Wentz
13. Travis Demerrite
12. Austin Riley
11. Max Fried
10. Ian Anderson
9. Ronald Acuna
8. Touki Toussaint
7. Luiz Gohara
6. Mike Soroka

*Top 50 was increased to Top 52 after a trade.

Send Me An Angel

By Eltiempo10 (Own work) [CC0], via Wikimedia Commons

Was that title enough of an earworm or is it too obscure? If so, I'm perhaps older than I thought.

The Atlanta Braves have more depth heading into 2017 than they did in either of the last two seasons, but the bench still needs work. The addition of Sean Rodriguez definitely helps as it likely means either Rodriguez or Jace Peterson will be on the bench on most days and both are borderline major league starters. But outside of either one of those players, what will this bench look like?

Chase D'Arnaud will be around, but do the Braves really want to depend too much on a player with a sub-.600 OPS in the majors? Kurt Suzuki will take up a spot as well, though he's hardly much of a threat with the bat. With that in mind, the Braves could use some extra offense. Depending on whether they go with an eight-man bullpen or not - and I hope the latter - the Braves still head into spring training with at least a spot open for grabs and as many as three.

A potential platoon of Rio Ruiz/Adonis Garcia could man one of those spots, though their lack of versatility could make that option a little less desirable for the Braves especially if they are going with a four-man bench. Atlanta has also apparently flirted with the idea of bringing back Jeff Francoeur and/or Kelly Johnson, but even if they did that, there are still questions about this bench that need to be addressed. Of the players I've already mentioned, only D'Arnaud has played a passable shortstop in the majors, which only helps his case and hurts the offensive potential of this bench. Furthermore, who is second on the depth chart to play center field?

Right now, probably Rodriguez. And why not? He's played nearly 60 innings in center during his career. Clearly, he can handle the position for a few days, right? And if not, there's always Peterson. He slammed into a wall last year after all. That's about all I have to say about that.

Listen, I love Ender Inciarte, but he's hit the DL in each of the last three years. That's too short of a sample size to say he's likely to do it again in 2017, but the trends certainly aren't in his favor. If such an event happens - and hopefully it's only for a couple of weeks if it does - who plays center field? Would you believe the choice might be Emilio Bonifacio or Mel Rojas Jr.? Not excited about that? Well, there's also Xavier Avery. Who? I'll give you a minute or two to read this quick introduction I wrote on Avery a few weeks ago when the Braves added him. I'll wait.

Done? Maybe Rojas or Avery satisfies you as a deep depth option. Maybe Bonifacio isn't that bad (he is). Maybe you think Inciarte will stay healthy all season. But, if you're like me, you'd like a bit more depth. The kind of depth the Braves had before they traded away Mallex Smith.

Back to the title of this post. Real Life's "Send Me An Angel" was a fun 80's hit about asking the heavens for love.  In this case, all I want is a fourth outfielder. Regardless, John Coppolella, send me an Angel............Pagan. Also, if that's not his walk-up music, someone really failed at their job.

Angel Pagan won't make the Braves winners in 2017, but he will make them a little better. Since his last big season in 2012, he's been between a 1.4 and 2.1 fWAR player in three of the last four years. To put that into context, in the last four seasons, Nick Markakis has been worth 4.9 fWAR and Matt Kemp has been worth 2.1 fWAR. Same time frame, Pagan has been a 4.5 fWAR player. By the way, he'll be paid a fraction of the cost as those other two.

To be fair, injuries have sapped Pagan of much of his speed that made him a yearly 30-steal threat. With that said, he still swiped 15 bases last year, one fewer than Inciarte and Smith, who led the Braves. Pagan's also been much healthier of late, having posted back-to-back 500+ PA campaigns after failing to do so in the two seasons prior. Pagan also has been successful throughout his career with the bat compared to his center field peers. He finished last year with a .324 wOBA (vs. .322 career) and 105 wRC+ (vs. 103 career). Though 35 years-old, nothing in his numbers would seem to make one believe that a decline was imminent.

I should also mention that as a switch-hitter, Pagan is a perfect fourth outfielder. He gives his manager flexibility to try to schedule off days for Markakis and Inciarte against tougher left-handers and give Kemp a day off against a nasty righty.

To be fair a second time, Pagan's defense in center field has deteriorated along with his speed. Outside of 2011, the defensive metrics have never loved Pagan's D to begin with and it's only gotten worse. If the Braves need him to play much longer than a few weeks in center field, they are probably asking for too much. Pagan played a lot of left field last year and the metrics agreed that it was a good move for him. That would give the Braves a late-inning defensive caddy for Kemp who won't be completely inept with the bat should he need to hit.

Pagan could be an outstanding addition for the Braves if the money is good and presumably, at this point, it seems unlikely he'll demand more than an incentive-rich one-year deal with a low base salary. So, I ask you again, John Coppolella. Send not only me, but the Braves an Angel. It's just too good of a fit.

Braves Add Lefties Kirkman and Brothers

The Braves keep adding players to the mix as they look to add depth and this week added left-hand relievers Michael Kirkman and Rex Brothers. Will these two play a role for the 2017 Braves?

Let's start with Kirkman. Thirty years-old, Kirman was originally a fifth rounder by Texas all the way back in 2005. Five years later, Kirman made it to the majors with a reputation for mid-90's heater with sinking action and fairly good control. In the majors, the latter never really appeared.

A starter in the minors, Kirkman has been a reliever in each of the 96 games he's appeared in as a big leaguer. A 21% strikeout rate isn't great, but certainly not bad. However, you can't get by with a 11% walk rate in most cases. It's a big reason Kirkman has carried a 4.46 FIP throughout his career with a 4.53 xFIP. SIERA gives him a bit more love with a 3.94 mark.

Velocity-wise, Kirkman used to reach high-90's with his four-seamer, but in limited action over the last three years, I haven't seen him hum it in there at higher than 93 mph. He sits a tick or two below that on average. He started to use a sinker in 2014 at about 90 mph, but he'll go to his 83-84 slider more often. A typical slider, it bites into righties and away from lefties with little break. Because of this, he'll use the fastball/slider duo against lefties while mixing in his other pitches to try to keep righties off-balanced. This includes a mid-70's curveball and a mid-80's splitter. The splitter acts as almost a change-up to his fastball as it has a similar look to it, but only slower and with less break. His curveball is a tight spinner.

Kirkman spent last year mostly in the minors for Colorado Springs (MIL) and El Paso (SD). He was hit up pretty good in the PCL, though he, as usual, struck out his fair share of batters. He also appeared in one game each for the Padres and Brewers with zero success. Career-wise, he has carried reverse splits in the majors with lefties managing a .346 wOBA against him while righties check in at .316.

The #34th overall selection in 2009, Rex Brothers has had some success at the big-league level. A reliever-only option, Brothers reached the majors in 2011 for 48 games with the Rockies. Even as a rookie playing in Denver, Brothers more than held his own with a 2.88 ERA/2.88 FIP/2.65 xFIP complete with a 34% strikeout rate. He would not be nearly as dominant the next two seasons, but was still a good pitcher with a 3.32 FIP/3.46 xFIP profile. He was solid enough against righties to handle full innings, but owned lefties.

However, Brothers would struggle to find the strikezone in 2014 and continued poor efforts landed him in Triple-A the following year. The Rockies traded him to the Cubs after that, but after failing to impress there, he was released during the 2016 spring training.

So, what happened in 2014 to turn a formerly dominant reliever into Triple-A filler?

Well, velocity-wise, his average velocity fell from 96 mph in 2012 to 94.5 mph the following year. He lost another tick in 2014 and while his heater has stabilized from there, that's a drop of roughly 2.5 mph from 2012. The decreased speed has only made his fastball, which has always had movement, more difficult to control. Since Brothers works 2/3's of the time off his fastball, that's a big loss. His slider has also changed from more of a typical slider to having a bit of a hard curveball feel. Brothers also has a sinker and changeup, but rarely uses those.

Interestingly, his troubles also seemed to come from an effort to get more on-top with his pitches and throw more over-handed. Typically, that might help a pitcher find more depth with his pitches. In the case of Brothers, it seems like it has had the opposite fact while also robbing him of speed. That is just a guess, but that's what the numbers appear to be telling us. Let's take a look in video form at the differences between the Brothers of 2011 and 2014. I'm including a clip from his major league debut and a clip from his 2014 highlight, an "immaculate "inning" against the Giants. Pay special attention to the release point and delivery, especially how he drops the ball down as he begins his wind-up.




Perhaps Brothers is fixable? The Braves certainly want to give it a try. He did not receive an invitation to spring training, but we will still likely see him with the big league club especially for split-squad games. As a lottery ticket, you can do much worse.

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: #20-#11 (Part 2 of 2)

A few hours ago, I released the first part of prospects #20-#11 for this year's Top 50. With how amazingly deep the Braves' system is, even players just inside the Top 20 deserve so much digital ink that it turns what are supposed to be regular three-paragraph recaps into longer pieces. Next week (hopefully Tuesday), I'll release the next section of prospects, which will cover #10 to #6. If all goes well, the Top 5 will be released the morning of pitchers and catchers reporting. Thank you for your patience.

If you didn't read part 1, here is a link.

15. Dustin Peterson, OF, 22 years-old, Grade: B-

After an uneven year with Carolina, expectations weren't very high for Peterson entering 2016. What followed was Peterson's best season since the Padres picked him 50th overall in 2013. Despite being one of the Southern League's youngest players, Peterson slashed .282/.343/.431 and was on pace for an even bigger season before a before a late 25-game stretch (.606 OPS) dropped his numbers. According to Fangraphs, Peterson had a .356 wOBA and 124 wRC+ - the first time he finished above 100. The strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, his ISO was the highest, and even his defense graded much better in his second year in left field.

Overall, it was the kind of season the Braves envisioned when they acquired him from the Padres in the Justin Upton trade. Now comes the hard part - succeeding for a season is one thing, but if Peterson wants to be a starter in the majors, he's going to have to show he's not a one-hit wonder. Here's the good news. There's enough reason to believe that we haven't even seen the best of Peterson yet.

Consider this. Peterson has played young at nearly every stop. As a 19 year-old, he was in the low-A Midwest League where he logged just 18 PA against pitchers younger than he was. At 20 years-old, he played in the never-easy-to-hit Carolina League. Just eight times did he step into the batter's box to face a guy younger than he was. Last year, it was a scant 18 times. Three years - just 44 PA against pitchers younger than Peterson was at the time. He's been behind the curve from the get-go, which makes his success last year even more promising. Consider also that the former third baseman's defense went from a -12 in 2015 according to Clay Davenport's defensive metrics to a 1 last year. One doesn't sound great, but it's a significant improvement.

Peterson lacks a one big tool. That's to say none of his skills will likely get a 60 or better grade on a 20-80 scale. On the other hand, potential-wise, he's average or better in every category. He's got enough power, enough speed, and makes enough solid contact to put together a solid, if not unspectacular, stat line. If his defense is real, he could have a similar batting line to Melky Cabrera. I know Braves fans hate that name - I do, too - but Cabrera has a career .286/.337/.417 triple slash. I could see Peterson posting a bit better marks in OBP and SLG with a slightly lower batting average, but if the defense is for real, that's a valuable player. Maybe not a franchise cornerstone, but valuable.



14. Joey Wentz, LHP, 19 years-old, Grade: B-

Selected four picks before #16 Kyle Muller, Wentz is quite similar to the the Jesuit Prep flamethrower. Like Muller, Wentz is a prep star lefty who also flashed a good bat and Top 20-30 potential. Some dead arm and signability concerns for the UVA commit pushed him a little lower in the draft than he should have been, which was a big get for the Braves.

Unlike Muller, Wentz didn't stay in the Gulf Coast League for long. After 12 scoreless innings, five walks, and 18 K's over four starts in the GCL, Wentz headed north to Danville to finish the year. His numbers there aren't so gaudy largely due to control issues, but he did finish with three earned runs allowed over his last 14.2 innings with 16 K's (and nine walks).

One last similarity with Muller - Wentz is a big guy. Listed 6'5" and 210 pounds, Wentz has a clean delivery that will serve him well as he progresses. Wentz relies on a low-to-mid 90's fastball that may have even more untapped velocity. He gets good armside run on it as well. His curveball has big-time potential while his changeup, while still a work in progress, could be a plus pitch. If he puts his late season control issues behind him - and there's really no reason to believe he won't - Wentz could be the best of the trio of excellent prep arms picked in the '16 draft.



13. Travis Demeritte, 2B, 22 years-old, Grade: B-

Lucas Harrell was a Brave for all of ten seconds (okay, 29.1 innings). The pitching-starved Rangers were so desperate that they handed an actual prospect over to Atlanta for Harrell. Notice to major league general managers - you probably shouldn't talk to John Coppolella when you're vulnerable. He's like Frank Underwood. He'll sell you on the worst possible thing and make you think it was your brilliant idea. Plus, I'm really not convinced Coppy wouldn't throw you in front of a train if he had to. Spoiler alert, by the way.

Back to Demeritte. All the way back in 2013, the Rangers spent the #30th pick on the Windor, Georgia product. The Braves followed by picking Jason Hursh. Six picks later, Arizona grabbed Aaron Blair. Now, all three belong to the Braves and Demeritte might be the best of the trio. Demeritte spent the summer in rookie ball before landing in low-A the next season. Since then, his wOBA has ranged from .344 to the .390s last season. Suffice it to say, he has a bat. A slugging second baseman, Demeritte has carried a 12% walk rate and has swiped 27 bases the last two seasons combined.

The catch, however, is that he strikes out a lot. As in 34% of the time. How difficult is it to be an effective major league hitter and strikeout that often? Well, over the last four years, there are 15 instances of a player striking out out at least 30% of the time while also having enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title. Nine had 1.0 fWAR or lower. On the flipside, there are also four instances of a 3.0 fWAR or better. That's a way of saying it's possible to be successful and still strike out at a ridiculously inflated frequency - it's just not the norm.

Two things must continue to improve Demeritte's chances of being a valuable major leaguer and I believe both will. It's not particularly easy to strike out at least 170 times and still on-base .360 or better as Demeritte did last year. In major league history, it's only happened 31 times. In each case, the batter walked at least 72 times and hit at least 17 homeruns. With Demeritte's power and eye, I believe he has a shot to be #32. Furthermore, Demeritte's defense is quite good at second base - good enough to stick despite the gaudy power numbers.

Of course, for Demeritte, second base seems like a longshot considering the presence of Ozzie Albies. The Braves could try him in left field and he has played some third base in the minors as well. Ticketed to start next season in Double-A, Demeritte overall game could get him to the bigs in a hurry.



12. Austin Riley, 3B, 20 years-old, Grade: B-

Though 63 games, 2016 was looking like a lost season for Austin Riley. The preparations had been made for articles detailing how young Riley was, how he could still impress, how we needed to be patient. All of those still apply, but after a .252/.299/.372 start to his first full season, Riley turned it on to quiet the detractors. Over his final 66 games, Riley slashed .289/.348/.581 with an absurd 17 homeruns. And with that, we are excited again.

Riley finished 2016 with 20 homeruns and in case that's not impressive enough, the last time a Braves farmhand hit 20 homers was 2013 when Ernesto Mejia and Robby Hefflinger both reached the 20-homer plateau. The last time a Rome player did it was Evan Gattis in 2011. Riley's season also scored high on a few metrics, including a .360 wOBA and 128 wRC+ to go along with his .208 ISO. The former 41st overall selection had a great year even if it started terribly.

Riley's prospect status is interesting because he was arguably a better pitching prospect heading into the 2015 draft and many expected teams to try to push Riley to the mound. The Braves gave him a chance to hit and he's quickly became one of their top prospects and best power prospect in the system.

Questions remain about Riley's contact rate (27% strikeout rate), plate discipline (8% walk rate), and his defense (-3 according to Clay Davenport's defensive stats). These are fair enough criticisms, though a player with Riley's age and upside can certainly improve upon what concerns there are about his game right now. He'll have an assignment with Florida to open 2017 and could be knocking on the door to join the Braves, if all goes well, by the end of 2018.



11. Max Fried, LHP, 23 years-old, Grade: B

After missing a year due to Tommy John surgery, Fried started over in low-A ball as part of Rome's stacked rotation. Like many members of the team, he started slow with a 5.21 ERA during his first 48.1 innings (28 BB, 40 K, 5 HR). However, over his next 54.2 innings, he found his footing. He allowed just a 2.80 ERA, struck out 72, and walked a mere 19 batters. That, my dear readers, is a definition of someone flipping the light switch.

Fried was a big prospect well before he was included in the Justin Upton trade. In fact, if I recall correctly, the Braves settled on him after the Padres balked at the idea of including Matt Wisler. The Braves ended up with both and Fried definitely has a higher ceiling.

Fried's velocity isn't quite as noteworthy as some other Braves' prospects, nor is the movement on his heater as great. What Fried does have is the ability to control his heater whereas other pitchers in the system struggle to consistently locate it. Fried rarely grooves a fastball into the zone and is able to often use both sides of the plate with the pitch. His changeup isn't superb, but he does a great job disguising it with the same pitching motion as his heater. He'll use those two pitches to try to get ahead before going to his curveball, which has ridiculous break to it and will be the reason Fried puts up solid K numbers as he moves up the system.

Like many pitchers in this system, you can make the argument that Fried's stuff could be the best. I rank him a little lower than others because while I do agree, from an experience standpoint, leaving him in low-A was an appropriate move, he faced a lot of younger batters. He subsequently owned them. The results against older batters were a little less impressive (.253/.343/.460). I don't consider that damning or even that informative, but it's there. Hopefully, we see Fried move on up to Double-A - if not to start the year, soon after - which will allow us a better opportunity to judge where the lefty is.



2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects*
5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions)
#52-43
#42-31
#30-21
#20-16

The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales
41. Steve Janas
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder
30. Akeel Morris
29. Matt Withrow
28. Michael Mader
27. Juan Yepez
26. Christian Pache
25. Brett Cumberland
24. Luke Jackson
23. Derian Cruz
22. Braxton Davidson
21. Alex Jackson
20. Rio Ruiz
19. A.J. Minter
18. Lucas Sims
17. Patrick Weigel
16. Kyle Muller
15. Dustin Peterson
14. Joey Wentz
13. Travis Demerrite
12. Austin Riley
11. Max Fried

*Top 50 was increased to Top 52 after a trade.

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: #20-#11 (Part 1 of 2)

These prospect capsules are taking forever. It's with that in mind that I've split this week's ten pack into two parts just to help with loading times and whatnot. This is Part 1 while Part 2 will be released within an hour.

I did want to touch on something I forgot to mention before - my grading scale. I want to start by making it clear that I'm not an expert or a scout. I base my grades on scouting reports I've read, footage I've watched, conversations I've shared, and stats. In addition, I'll use what level the player is at versus his age. Overall, don't get too upset if I grade lower than others. I'm a very hard grader.

20. Rio Ruiz, 3B, 23 years-old (5/22), Grade: B-

2016 was just what the doctor ordered for Ruiz to get back into the prospect game. After being part of the Evan Gattis trade, Ruiz struggled tremendously in 2015 with Mississippi. He did finish strong, though, with a .289/.370/.459 clip over the final 154 PA. The former fourth-rounder used that momentum to start 2016 off right with a nice spring training and a hot bat to begin the year with Gwinnett. Over his first 107 PA, Ruiz hit .337/.411/.495 and people were already calling for his promotion to the bigs. He would taper off badly in May, but hit well enough down the stretch to finish .271/.355/.400 with a .342 wOBA and 118 RC+. It's worth stating that Ruiz received just nine plate appearances against pitchers younger than he is. His season was rewarded with a five-game run in Atlanta where he picked up two hits, including a triple.

What do the Braves actually have in Ruiz? He doesn't do anything exceptionally well, but does enough positive things to project major league success. He's always shown a solid eye at the plate with a walk rate ranging from 10.6% to 13.6% above rookie ball. The strikeout rate hit 20% last year, but he's not hurt by making too little contact. Defensively, he lacks the lateral movement needed to be an elite defender, but does have a strong and accurate arm and makes the plays he can get to.

He's never hit more than a dozen homers in a season and probably won't be a yearly 20-homer guy in the majors. He may also be platoon-limited with a .293/.229 OBP/SLG against southpaws in 2016 and .306/.384 the year before. While I have a tough time believing Ruiz is a long-term option the Braves can plop down at third base and not have to tinker with, I do think his skillset can help the Braves as early as 2017.



19. A.J. Minter, LHP, 23 years-old, Grade: B-

When the guy you grade as a first round talent is available in the second round, you take him even if he's injured and won't pitch until the next season. That's what the Braves did in 2015 when they selected A.J. Minter out of Texas A&M. Now, less than two years since that June day, the Braves could see Minter break camp with their team for 2017. If there's one thing this Braves front office has done repeatedly with prospects is aim high. In Minter, they did just that.

After Minter recuperated from Tommy John surgery performed early in 2015, he made his professional debut with Rome on May 5 of last year. He needed just a handful of games in the South Atlantic League to shake off the rust and allowed no runs in 6.2 innings with six K's and one walk. Late in May, he was promoted to Carolina and over eight games, continued to hold the opposition scoreless in 9.1 innings with four walks and ten strikeouts. He would spend the final two months of 2016 with Mississippi and while he finally gave up some runs, he struck out 31 over 18.2 innings. Overall, in 31 games, Minter had a 1.30 ERA and a FIP nearly as good over 34.2 innings. He walked just eleven batters (8%) and picked up 47 strikeouts (35%).

Minter has worked hard to clean up his delivery, which is only going to make his 97 mph heater all the more deadly. Not content with velocity, Minter gets tremendous movement with the pitch and he's capable of throwing it up in the zone or dropping it low. He'll pair that devastating pitch with a slider, though it won't look like many sliders you are used to. It dives into lefties and moves away from righties, the opposite of what you might expect from a left-handed pitcher. Minter also has a change, though that's a holdover from his college starting days and I never saw it in what video I watched of Minter.

My ranking here is based on the idea that Minter won't be later moved to the rotation. It's always a possibility and would definitely improve his value, but I believe the Braves see him as a reliever and a high-leverage one at that. I believe he'll become that as soon as the second half of 2017. He'll face some stiff competition this spring as Ian Krol was awesome last year and Paco Rodriguez has the experience to match a similar pedigree as Minter. If the Braves go with three lefties, it could open the door for Minter. Personally, I doubt that as Minter was never pushed to throw back-to-back games in 2016. The Braves might want to see that first with Gwinnett before bringing him to SunTrust - though I would be shocked if Minter has a healthy campaign and doesn't play in the majors at some point.



18. Lucas Sims, RHP, 23 years-old, Grade: B-

It seems like Sims has been in the system for a decade, though it's only been half of that since the Frank Wren-era Braves took him with the 21st pick of the 2012 draft. Sims was a callback to an older era of selecting the best prep players from Georgia who often grew up big Braves fans. Sims became the top pitching prospect in the system after 2013 when he finished with 134 K's in 116.2 innings for Rome. The season included a 2.62 ERA and 3.09 FIP. In a system dying for players with high-end projection, Sims stood out as someone to dream big about.

Subsequent efforts have been a mixed bag. The strikeouts have been there (9.7 K/9 in 2015, 10.1 K/9 last year), but the walks have subsequently climbed to an unacceptable rate. Last year, he walked nearly six every nine innings. While a number of Braves' minor league arms disappointed in 2016, Sims may have been the most disappointing because he had finished 2015 on a hot streak with Mississippi and was one of the stars of the Arizona Fall League to end the year.

Sims relies on a low-90's fastball that he can get up to 96-97 mph. Like nearly every top Braves' pitching prospect, he not only has great velocity, but superb movement. For strikeouts, he goes to a curveball that has late break on it that, if Sims is right, leads to a lot of whiffs. He also has a changeup that is inconsistent, but excellent when he's on and a slider that he's still trying to get feel for.

Many have suggested that Sims' profiles best as a reliever. I'm not ready to agree just yet, but the control issues are concerning. Ignoring injuries, there's only two ways a pitcher with Sims' stuff doesn't become a good major league pitcher: nothing between the ears or hurting himself because he can't harness his outstanding stuff. I still have a good deal of hope for Sims, but he cannot stagnate for too much longer because the arms that are coming have even higher ceilings.



17. Patrick Weigel, RHP, 22 years-old, Grade: B-

The 2015 draft for the Atlanta Braves has a chance to be franchise-altering. In addition to the big two names at the front of the draft in Kolby Allard and Mike Soroka, the Braves also picked Minter (#19), Lucas Herbert (#32), and the guy who will be revealed at #12 in the second part of this update. In the seventh round, they grabbed University of Houston right-hander Patrick Weigel. Minter has the best shot to be the first Brave from that draft to make it to the majors, but Weigel's not far behind.

Weigel flew under the radar heading into 2016 because of his lower-profile draft selection and mediocre numbers with Danville. He broke out in 2016, though. In 149.2 innings, Weigel struck out 152, walked 52, and had a 2.47 ERA. Most of that was at Rome, though Weigel did log 20.2 innings with Mississippi to close the season.

Last summer, Baseball America was asked this question: is Weigel a seventh round steal? This line from J.J. Cooper was telling - "He might be a little older than some of his teammates, but on one of the best pitching staffs in the minors, Weigel’s pure stuff is as good as anyone else in the Rome rotation." That was a rotation with Allard and Soroka, along with Touki Toussaint (also unranked so far), Ricardo Sanchez (#33), and the guy who will be ranked #11th in the second part of this update. That's some incredible praise.

Weigel has a hard fastball with arm-side movement that can reach the high 90's. He has three other pitches and all have potential. The slider is the best of the trio and is a hard breaking pitch that gets more vertical movement than horizontal. Weigel also has a looping curveball that changes the batter's eye and a changeup that he's shown improved feel for.

A reliever in college, Weigel not only could beat the higher-drafted duo of teenage arms picked ahead of him, but he has a shot to be a very productive pitcher in the majors.



16. Kyle Muller, LHP, 19 years-old, Grade: B-

0.65 ERA. 1.88 FIP. 35% strikeout rate compared to an 11% walk rate. No homers allowed. Older hitters had a triple slash of .145/.263/.145 against him. Yeah, I'd say that's a good start to a career.

Drafted out of Dallas's Jesuit College Prep after winning a state championship as a senior, Muller was a late bloomer ahead of the draft that the Braves had to convince Muller to not become a Longhorn after graduating. Fortunately, they were able to and those stats I relayed in the first paragraph were the results over a 27.2 inning stint in the Gulf Coast League. Big and strong at 6'6", 225 pounds, Muller was also a big target with the bat (one of the top prep homerun hitters in the country) before giving that up to give the Braves yet another high-profile lefty arm.

A MLB.com Top 25 prospect before the draft, Muller has mid-90s velocity to go with a curveball that has taken amazing strides since his junior year of hifh school. He's also shown improved feel for his changeup and as he continues to perform, he'll continue to rocket up these rankings.



(Part 2 to be released in a few hours.)

2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects*
5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions)
#52-43
#42-31
#30-21

The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales
41. Steve Janas
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder
30. Akeel Morris
29. Matt Withrow
28. Michael Mader
27. Juan Yepez
26. Christian Pache
25. Brett Cumberland
24. Luke Jackson
23. Derian Cruz
22. Braxton Davidson
21. Alex Jackson
20. Rio Ruiz
19. A.J. Minter
18. Lucas Sims
17. Patrick Weigel
16. Kyle Muller

*Top 50 was increased to Top 52 after a trade.