What Can the Braves Learn from the Cubs?

Swanson's Defense Important as Braves
Focus on Run Prevention
By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

The World Series came to a close last night and what a Series it was! Just to put a cherry on top, Game Seven was one of the most captivating games ever played. Congratulations to both teams for reminding the country just how close to perfect baseball can be.

For the Braves, the end of the Fall Classic means we can flip to the Hot Stove Season. With a move to a new ballpark on the horizon along with a slew of young players moving through the minors to join the big league club, this offseason will be pivotal if the Braves want to make it to the playoffs for the first time in four years.

Baseball, like all sports, is a game in which success is copied. When moneyball was popularized by the A's, a cascade of teams tried to follow suit. When the Royals rode a bullpen to championship heights, teams tried to build a replica of their own and paid hefty prices in cash and/or prospects - including both teams in the World Series.

There is a lot to learn about the Cubs that can be applied to other teams, but one of the biggest differences in the series might have gone a bit under-the-radar. Sure, the bullpens and their usage was heavily digested. As was the differences between the rotations and lineups. For me, though, one of the clearest differences between the two teams was in defense and run prevention.

Take a look at Game Six. After Kris Bryant quickly put the Cubs ahead 1-0, Chicago followed with a pair of sharp singles. Josh Tomlin, a 1 fWAR guy with a 4.88 FIP during the regular season, went 1-1 on Addison Russell. What would happen next would carry more weight according to Win Probability than even Russell's later Grand Slam. Russell sent a flyball to the right-center gap. Tyler Naquin was a 25-year rookie this season who was not expected to play much of a role, but injuries and his own success changed that. He was in center field rushing toward the gap while Lonnie Chisenhall was coming from his place in right field. A six year veteran, Chisenhall had been moved to the outfield during the 2015 season after failing to establish himself as a competent third baseman in the major leagues. He even started a game in center field this season.

There remains confusion as to what happened next as the ball came down. Naquin said both called it, Chisenhall contends neither did it, and Terry Francona asserts that Naquin told Chisenhall to take it. Whatever the case, a rookie center fielder saw a converted third baseman fly in front of him and a ball drop to the ground between the two of them. Called a double because the error statistic is worthless, two runs scored and Russell ended up on third via an error that was called when a Jason Kipnis throw to the plate got away.

The defensive miscues continued in Game Seven. With a pair of runners on and no outs in the fourth, Ben Zobrist hit a grounder to first. To be clear, it would have been tough to turn a double play, but it nearly turned into no outs as Mike Napoli, a converted catcher, threw high-and-wide to shortstop. They got the one out, but had no chance for a double play. That left the opportunity for Russell to send a flyball to left-center. Again, it seemed the outfielders were not communicating or not keeping their heads in the game. Rajai Davis called for the ball, but never got into prime position to fire the ball home. All the while, left-fielder Coco Crisp was almost crowding Davis, who paused to gather himself after catching the ball before firing home to try to cut the runner down at the plate. His throw, like Napoli's, was high. This time, the runner was safe.

These are just a few of the most high profile situations during this series where the Indians failed to make a play, but it also points toward the differences in the two teams and it's even more evident in the regular season metrics. It's not that the Indians were necessarily bad defensively like the Braves were - just that the Indians were not very good. They were the Vinny Castilla of teams. They made most of the plays they ought to, but while the Cubs had 82 defensive runs scored (DRS), the Indians had just 17. While the Cubs had a Plus/Minus Runs Saved (rPM) of +99, the Indians were just +7.

Cleveland had just three players in their lineup with a composite defensive runs above average (DEF) of 5 or higher. While they had probably the best defensive player in the series in Francisco Lindor, the Cubs had 5 DEF or better guys at catcher, second base, shortstop, third base, and right field. Their worst defensive player, according to the metric DEF, was Anthony Rizzo, who played the least important defensive position and was still rated much better than his compliment on the Indians, the aforementioned Napoli.

None of this kept the Indians from being one game away from winning the World Series three times. The Cubs had their own issues, especially with depth in their lineup. Russell and Javier Baez, while both certainly did some nice things this year, had a .316 wOBA. Of course, a mark like that would have made Jason Heyward thrilled. While the Cubs offense was explosive, it also had issues and the Indians were able to exploit that during the Series at various times. Their bullpen depth was also not as strong as the Indians, though really, I felt that was splitting hairs because Chicago still had some really good arms in the pen.

Chicago's pitching staff was good, but not nearly as good as the results indicated. Kyle Hendricks had a 3.20 FIP and a 3.59 xFIP to go with his 2.13 ERA. Jon Lester had a 3.41 FIP and a 3.47 xFIP to go with his 2.44 ERA. The rest of the starting staff had similar, though less stark, differences that each saw their ERAs look much nicer than their FIP or xFIP. The Indians had some small positive differences or flatout reverse differences. Trevor Bauer's ERA was higher than both metrics while Tomlin's xFIP was .27 points lower than his ERA. However, most of the time, the differences were minor and suggested that the pitcher's ERA was rather close to his performance.

No team came close to the difference between ERA and FIP like the Cubs (-0.62 when ERA-FIP). It's the largest gap in which the ERA is lower than the FIP since the 2002 Atlanta Braves. That's not to say the Cubs weren't a great pitching team - they were. They had a strong collection of pitching talent that was magnified by the strongest defense in the league. The Indians, with a simply good defense, had a ERA/FIP difference of -0.06, which ranked 15th in baseball.

Run Prevention doesn't just fall on the pitchers and as the Braves look to the future, it's important to remember that. If the Braves want to follow anything the Cubs did as they ended their long-lasting streak of championship-less years, a focus on run prevention would go a long way to helping Atlanta get back to the playoffs and succeed.

TOT - Braves Trade Al Dark to the Giants. Again.

(I started this series last offseason and I felt it was a pretty interesting way to look back at the past. With so little big news going on right now, I figured now would be a good time to bring it back.)

By Bowman Gum [Public domain],
via Wikimedia Commons

Transaction of Today...October 31, 1960 - Milwaukee Braves trade Al Dark to the San Francisco Giants for Andre Rodgers

You rarely see the same organization trade the same guy to another organization for the second time, but on this day 56 years ago, the Braves did just that. While this trade would ultimately have little significance for the Braves, the first time the team traded Dark would have large ramifications for both teams.

First, let's look at the deal in 1960. The Milwaukee Braves had acquired Dark for Joe Morgan that June. No, not THE Joe Morgan. This Joe Morgan was an 28 year-old rookie who would play just 88 games over four seasons in the majors. Dark was a three-time All-Star, but at 38, he was at the end of his rope. At the time he was picked up, Milwaukee was a couple of games behind the Pirates for the NL lead and hoped Dark would give them a veteran bat off the bench that might help them overcome Pittsburgh. While Milwaukee briefly tied the Pirates after sweeping a Sunday double header at Wrigley in late July, the Braves never pulled ahead. Of course, the Pirates would go on to play in a classic World Series that fall against the Yankees that ended with Bill Mazeroski's ninth inning moonshot off Ralph Terry.

Back to Al Dark. He hit .298/.329/.390 down the stretch for Milwaukee, which was an improvement over his 55-game run with the Phillies to open the season. The Giants wanted their former All-Star back, but not so much as a player. Soon after the Braves sent Dark to San Francisco, they named him as their manager. In his new role, Dark would win a pennant in 1962 and later won a World Series ring in 1974 as the manager of San Francisco's bay area rivals, the A's.

Like I said, the 1960 trade was the second time the Braves sent Dark to the Giants. The first time came after the 1949 season. Dark had won the Rookie of the Year award in 1948 after being paired up with second baseman Eddie Stanky as one of the top double play combos in the league. That year, Boston went to the World Series only to lose to the Cleveland Indians. However, Boston was getting older and Dark and first baseman Earl Torgeson were their only regulars under 31. The following year, Johnny Sain struggled and the offense wasn't nearly as productive as it was in '48. The Braves decided to make some moves to shake things up and in a deal with the Giants on December 14, 1949, the Braves sent their double play combo to New York for Sid Gordon, Buddy Kerr, Willard Marshall, and Red Webb. Kerr would be Dark's replacement in the sense that he played the same position, but he wouldn't replace Dark's production at the plate. The Braves banked on outfielders Gordon and Marshall helping their lineup to compensate for their weaker double play combo. While Marshall struggled, Gordon thrived and the Braves bashed their way to 148 homeruns, the most homeruns the franchise would hit in a single season before their move to Milwaukee. However, like in 1949, Boston finished fourth.

Meanwhile, Dark would excel in the Polo Grounds. After hitting just six homeruns in over 280 games with Boston, Dark hit 16 in 1950 and 87 homeruns over his first five years after joining the Giants. He would become a team captain and helped to lead the Giants to a pair of World Series trips against the Yankees in 1951 and Indians in 1954. The latter Fall Classic saw the Giants win their first title in over 20 years. Dark would later play with the Cardinals, Cubs, and the Phillies before his 1960 trade to the Milwaukee Braves.

By the way, Andre Rodgers, the guy the Braves got for Dark in 1960, was four years into an 11-year career. He never suited up for the Braves in games that count, though, and was dealt to the Cubs at the end of camp the next spring with Daryl Robertson for Moe Drabowsky and Seth Morehead. Drabowsky would become a good reliever, but long after the Braves sent him packing after one year. Morehead finished a five-year major league career with a dozen games in Milwaukee. As for Rodgers, a year after he arrived in Chicago, he was put into the lineup full-time at shortstop, which moved Ernie Banks to first base. That's a pretty cool thing to tell your grandkids.

2016 Player Reviews: Matt Marksberry, Andrew McKirahan, Eric O'Flaherty

It's Southpaw central today here at Walk-Off Walk as three lefties are up next in the 2016 Player Review series. Amazingly, there are still six sets of players left to review. Jeez, the Braves used too many players in 2016.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

Matt Marksberry, LHP, 26 years-old

2016 Review: First off, it's great to know that Marksberry seems out of the woods as far as his health scare goes. Just over a week ago, a story broke in which Marksberry was on life support with a collapsed lung. Twitter can be a very useful social media tool, but it can quickly muddle the facts in a developing situation. Marksberry did have a health emergency as he was critically dehydrated with a sodium level that plummeted so low that Marksberry had a seizure. He is much improved now so we can look more at the baseball side of things. A year after appearing in 31 games for the Braves bullpen, Marksberry failed to impress last spring and actually opened the year with Mississippi. After a quick promotion, he received his longest run with any team in 2016 after joining Gwinnett, appearing in 28 games. Marksberry's ERA was nice and tidy, but he was a bit too prone to work his way into trouble via the walk. Before his season came to a close in late July with shoulder issues, Marksberry appeared in four games with the big league club and had little success.

2017 Projection: Marksberry has a nice following on Twitter and is very approachable as a genuine and likable guy. But results are what keep players in the majors and the results really aren't there to this point for the now 26 year-old. He could have a future as a left-hand specialist as a major league split of .172/.273/.310 indicates when he has the platoon advantage. That includes a nearly 23% strikeout rate, but I should also mention that this includes  a short-sample size (66 total batters faced) and .214 BABIP. That's not to say that it's all flukish - only that it should give one pause when it comes to projecting continued success for Marksberry. The shoulder concerns in 2016 certainly are worrisome as well. For their part, the Braves designated Marksberry for assignment and outrighted him to Mississippi following the season. He'll be in the mix come spring provided he's able and with everything he went through, he'll certainly be a fan favorite. With Ian Krol and Paco Rodriguez potentially in the fold, for the first time in awhile, the bullpen doesn't look like a revolving door of arms especially from the lefthand side. That said, after the last couple of weeks Marksberry has had, it's hard not to root for him to be on the roster when the 2017 season kicks off.

Andrew McKirahan, LHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: Not much to speak of after the lefty was removed after one appearance and just five pitches this spring and later diagnosed with a torn UCL. It was the second time the lefty underwent Tommy John surgery after missing most of the 2012 season because of the same operation. After spending the year on the 60-day DL, McKirahan was, like Marksberry, outrighted to Mississippi after the season ended.

2017 Projection: I was a big fan of McKirahan before the 2014 Rule 5 draft, where the Marlins selected him from the Cubs' organization. After he failed to stick with Miami, the Braves got him off waivers as the 2015 season was beginning. A PED suspension limited McKirahan to just 27 games in 2015 and the results were pretty ugly. When healthy, McKirahan flashes some extreme groundball ability with a fourseam fastball and sinker combo (though he rarely throws the sinker) along with a slider that drops down. His big issue, though, is that he has only one pitch that he can induce some whiffs on - the slider. However, for it to be effective, he has to pitch ahead and his hard stuff gets smacked around pretty good. He has some impressive numbers in the minors and unlike Marksberry, McKirahan has good control. But does he have the stuff to pitch at this level? We'll get a shot to find out in 2017 if he's healthy.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as "Eric
O'Flaherty") [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Eric O'Flaherty, LHP, 32 years-old

2016 Review: Ugly. That's how one might describe O'Flaherty's season. Picked up right before the season after he failed to impress the Pirates, O'Flaherty returned to the team where he became a tremendous asset for five seasons. However, he wasn't that guy anymore. His sinker has lost bite, his slider is too straight, and he's lost a tick or two with his heater. As the season progressed, it became clear that what we were watching wasn't the O'Flaherty we remembered so fondly. In August, he hit the DL with an elbow injury and later underwent surgery to fix the issue.

2017 Projection: While O'Flaherty is likely moving forward in his rehab and should be ready, provided there are no setbacks, to pitch this spring, it seems unlikely it will be for the Braves. While the depth at left-hand relief is one reason, O'Flaherty has a 5.49 ERA in 120 games since the start of 2013. Even if O'Flaherty has a clean bill of health, it would be a surprise to see him succeed in the majors again.

2016 Player Reviews: Ian Krol, Blake Lalli, Nick Markakis

Well, I had hoped to get this series finished before the end of the playoffs. Apparently, small goals like that are a bit too much. Hopefully, after the last few weeks I've had, I can schedule some writing as we transition into November so that I am getting back to a regular gig. With that in mind, let's get back on these player reviews before more of these players get traded or released.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

Ian Krol, LHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: Krol looked lost in spring training and wasn't all that impressive to begin the year at Gwinnett. But the fun thing about the MLB season is that it lasts six months and that gave Krol plenty of time to round into form. He arrived in the majors a week into May and gave the Braves a competent lefthander out of the pen. It was a bit of a Mike Remlinger Effect as his numbers were a bit better against right-handers than they were against the lefties (though a .381 BABIP vs. lefties could explain that). A deeper look shows a much better walk rate (5% lower) against lefthanders and a HR/9 rate that was cut in half when he had the platoon advantage. That gives me reason to believe that even if the triple slashes say otherwise, he was better against the lefties. However, the numbers against righthanders could be a sign that Krol is much more than just a LOOGY.

2017 Projection: A change that Krol has adopted over the last two years was to nearly scrape his 12-6 curveball in favor of a power slider. The pitch is much more effective against righties, but it's quite deadly against lefties as well. In addition to developing his slider, he's cut down on his fourseamer usage in favor of a two-seam sinker - especially against right-handed batters. The latter replaced his changeup, which was a pitch meant to keep righties off balanced, but it never flashed much plus potential. Now, with better repertoire, he is able to induce a slew of soft grounders that turn into easy outs. Krol's success was not smoke-and-mirrors. Rather, it was progression, development, and execution. Provided that continues into 2017, he's got a great chance to pair with a hopefully healthy Paco Rodriguez to give the Braves a duo of difficult southpaws for the opposition to deal with.

Blake Lalli, 33 years-old, C/1B/Emergency Pitcher

2016 Review: Lalli began his second decade in professional baseball by joining the Braves organization. The former Cubs, A's, Brewers, and Diamondbacks farmhand did what he always does - play a little catcher, play some first, not embarrass himself at the plate, and pitch when need be. In fact, Lalli pitched three times for Gwinnett this year and that's not even a career high in pitching appearances. He's been used on the mound in all but three of his professional seasons and has pitched 23 times in total. And you thought the whole Jeff Francoeur on the mound thing was cute.

2017 Projection: Re-signed to a minor league deal, Lalli is "just a guy." He's hit double digit homeruns just twice in his career and long ago shed his appeal as a hitting option behind the plate. He received a cameo for a bad Braves team and went just 2-for-13 with a double. That extra base hit was the first of his major league career (all 32 games of it). The Braves like him enough to keep him around, which means he's likely a good clubhouse guy. All in all, if the Braves are using Lalli for more than a few days in 2017, there are some depth issues that need to be dealt with.

Nick Markakis, RF, 32 years-old

2016 Review: There was both good and bad to "Neck's" 2016 campaign. On one hand, the ISO (.129) was a four-year high while his walk rate, which climbed to double digits in 2015, sustained through a second campaign. On the other hand, he was less productive despite hitting ten more homeruns. It wasn't a colossal fall, but his wOBA and wRC+ both declined. Now, a .300 BABIP didn't help and that's 16 points less than his career, but it's worth mentioning that his 2015 BABIP of .338 was probably a bit too high as well. Somewhere in the middle, the BABIP normalizes and you get the Braves version of Markakis who has slashed .282/.358/.386 as a Brave.

2017 Projection: Two things to keep in mind regarding the slash I just gave you. The OBP matches his nine-year run as an Oriole and is an above-average mark. The other thing that stands out becomes clear when you compare Markakis's final four years with the Orioles against his first two seasons as a Brave. His slash for those years was .281/.345/.399. Expecting much more improvement in regards to Markakis seems like a stretch. Yes, his neck seems better and his hard-hit rate improved noticeably (+7%) while his groundball rate plummeted back toward (and under) his career average after ballooning to 52% last year. He continues to show a great understanding of the strikezone and rarely whiffs. That leaves us with this version of Markakis, who is due $22 million over the next two years. He's a fine complimentary player who won't embarrass you, but he also won't make you much better. It's no surprise that the Braves are entertaining the idea of trading Markakis as they look toward improving in 2017.

Hopefully, I'll be back this weekend with another set. Thanks for reading and share liberally.

2016 Player Reviews: Jim Johnson, Casey Kelly, Matt Kemp

The Braves have already signed their first free agent, which means it's a good time to unveil this year's minor league free agent portal. As I did last year, I will try to track down all offseason minor league free agent signings and, in many cases, provide some analysis. Last year's crop of players included Jhoulys Chacin, Chase d'Arnaud, and even Blake Lalli - who rejoined the Braves yesterday after briefly becoming a free agent. One new thing for this year's list is that I will try to add in those players that have left the system.

Let's get to today's player reviews. Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Jim Johnson, RHP, 33 years-old

2016 Review: For all the criticisms that rightly and unjustly have been attributed to Roger McDowell, one thing that cannot be ignored is the magic he could do with veterans like Johnson. After returning to the Braves, where he looked effective in 2015 before a midseason move to the Dodgers, Johnson arguably had his best season. Granted, 20 saves doesn't look as fancy as back-to-back 50-save years, but he set new career-best totals for strikeout percentage (26%) and FIP (2.71). He also lowered his HR/FB rate under 10% for the first time in four years. He continued to practically scrap his changeup in favor of a four-seamer to keep batters off-balance from keying in on his sinker. One big change in pitch-selection this year was that he began to use his curveball nearly 25% of the time, an increase of about 10% over his career. None of his pitches generate more whiffs per swing, which is a big reason for such an increase in strikeouts.

2017 Projection: Can he repeat his success without McDowell? The Braves put a $10 million bet on that happening when they extended his contract through 2018 and why not? He has been given a base from which to excel regardless of the pitching coach. 2017 and 2018 will be his Age-34 and Age-35 years so regression is certainly possible - though Johnson has been remarkably durable with 60 or more games in five-of-the-last-six seasons with only one trip to the DL since 2011 (non-arm related). The Braves have done well to keep Johnson in the fold and Johnson surely has enjoyed his career resurgence in Atlanta.

Casey Kelly, RHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: Acquired last December for Christian Bethancourt, Kelly was part of a trio of pitchers - along with Ryan Weber and John Gant - who seemed to handle the role of long-man out of the pen. Once they threw a few innings in a game, they'd cycle back to Gwinnett in exchange for a fresher arm and rinse-and-repeat. Kelly was optioned to the minors four different times during the season While in the minors, he received the first extended look at Triple-A during his eight-year career. It was fairly meh (stats term) as far as results go. His 3.53 ERA was helped by a .266 BABIP. His major league results over 21.2 innings were pretty ugly as his inability to get many swings-and-misses becomes a real problem against major league batters.

2017 Projection: It's been three years since Kelly last showed up on Top 100 prospect lists and at his age, he won't again be in contention for a spot. Kelly's problem is that after a 2013 Tommy John surgery, his strikeout numbers have never rebounded and his control has gone from merely good rather than impeccable as it was when he climbed the minor league ladder. That's not to say all hope is lost, but Kelly is a guy who throws 90 mph, gets a decent amount of groundballs, and doesn't have the stuff to bear down and get strikeouts when needed. Those type of pitchers are a dime a dozen. While Kelly still has an option left and provides depth, he needs to develop an out-pitch and quickly to start ascending the depth chart rather than get passed by higher-ceiling prospects as they mature.

Matt Kemp, LF, 32 years-old

2016 Review: While the trade of Hector Olivera to the Padres in exchange for Kemp was all about saving face, it turned into a game-changer for an offense without much power. Despite playing for the Braves for just two months, Kemp finished fourth on the team in homeruns with a dozen dingers. The big finish gave him 35 homeruns overall - his best single-season total since 39 to lead the NL in 2011. All in all, he hit .280/.336/.519 as a Brave. Included in this offensive improvement was a 5% increase in walk rate from his time with the Padres. While it's a far cry from the Dodger All-Star years, a 120 wRC+ and .354 wOBA as a Brave is nothing to scoff at.

2017 Projection: At just 32, Kemp likely has some more productive years left in him. We'll get to his issues in a second, but dive into his ratios at the plate and you see one positive common theme - nothing he did during two months with the Braves was out-of-character for him compared to other times in his career. That's not to say he can sustain that production over a full season, but he was essentially playing to his career averages in wRC+ and wOBA. That's promising and if he's able to get in better shape, as both the team and Kemp have indicated he needs to do, there is a pretty good chance that Kemp can be an asset at the plate. In the field, that's another question. The Padres moved him away from center field - which badly needed to happen - and now the Braves are counting on him in left. Despite a less physically taxing position, the results were miserable and you would be hard pressed to find an outfielder with worse defensive metrics than Kemp since 2014. In fact, it's not even close. Kemp owns a -20.5 UZR/150 over the last three years. Dayan Viciedo (who hasn't played in the majors for two years) and Shin-Soo Choo are the only outfielders with more than -9 UZR/150 and neither come close to Kemp. This a real problem and not just a stat nerd one. If Kemp cannot improve his defense from epically bad to fairly bad (yes, that's the scale I'm using here), his value is considerably muted. You can't hide a player like Kemp in the NL and that's why the Braves traded Evan Gattis. For the time being, they are saddled with Kemp moving forward. Here's hoping his defense improves just a bit more because the bat has a chance to be a big asset for a Braves team that could make some noise for a playoff spot in 2017.

2016 Player Reviews: Jason Hursh, Ender Inciarte, Tyrell Jenkins

With today's three in the bank, I am still not even half-way through this series, but progress is progress, right? There are a lot of players still in the mix for hypothetical spots on the 2017 roster, though as we shift toward the offseason and a plethora of moves the Braves make to try to get better next year, open slots on next year's roster will be harder to come by. Today's trio has one definite member of next year's roster in the mix - provided he's not traded. Two others could battle for a bullpen spot.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

By Tate Nations (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

 Jason Hursh, RHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: For the first time in his career, Hursh did not get a starting assignment during the season. His move to the pen actually began in 2015 when he was shifted from the starting rotation after struggling badly during a second run in Mississippi. Overall, there is not much of a difference between Hursh the Starter and Hursh the Reliever except for one thing. He induced a ridiculous amount of groundballs when coming out of the pen. He's always been a groundball pitcher, but he went from a 1.6 groundball/flyball rate to 2.5 this season. According to this article from Fangraphs, that's comparable to a 55%-60% rate. Somewhere, Bobby Cox just had dreams of Kevin Gryboski. Hursh got a look in the bigs in August, though the results were pretty ugly (in a extra-petite sample size). He finished up the season with Gwinnett with mixed results.

2017 Projection: I kid about the Gryboski comparison, but Hursh is that kind of pitcher that a manager might be tempted to utilize in "rally-killing" situations. The problem with that idea is that Hursh has very little margin for error. He won't get many strikeouts (5.5-6.5 K/9) and isn't pinpoint enough with his control to make that work for him. Hursh could provide better value to the Braves if a team sees more in him than the Braves and is willing to take Hursh in a trade. If he returns in 2017, he'll be part of a large group of pitchers trying to get a look in the spring. A trip to Gwinnett seems most likely if he's not dealt beforehand.

Ender Inciarte, OF, 26 years-old

2016 Review: It was the tale of two different seasons for Inciarte. Through his first 56 games (which includes a trip to the DL), Inciarte was hitting an abysmal .226/.293/.304. He had been relegated to the bottom of the order and it looked like it would be a lost year for the former D'Back. Instead, Inciarte righted the ship beginning on July 8. Over his final 75 games, he slashed .338/.392/.436. Until the last weekend, he didn't go back-to-back games without a hit. Back in the leadoff spot, Inciarte was integral to the offense's resurgence in the second half. While his bat failed to impress early, his defense was a full-season marvel. Briefly, he was utilized in left field, but quickly, Brian Snitker realized that was a waste of Inciarte's impressive talents. He finished the season with 13 DRS, the third best total in the majors. For the first time since Michael Bourn left via free agency after 2012, the Braves had a plus-plus defender in center field.

2017 Projection: Let's be clear...the Inciarte of the final 75 games is not a true reflection of his skill level, but a regression to the mean. We have two extreme samples of Inciarte in 2016 and the overall performance level is closer to the final numbers (.291/.351/.381) than either of the extremes. That stat line isn't too far removed from his 2015 campaign with the D'Backs. He did show some improvement with a slight climb in walk rate to nearly 8% after hovering around 5% with Arizona. What is more impressive is the improvement against lefthanders. While it deserves to be mentioned that his .355 BABIP against lefties indicates an artificially high triple slash, Inciarte still reached .319/.365/.384 - a far cry from the .288 OBP he had against southpaws before coming to Atlanta. It would be easy to suggest - especially with Mallex Smith also in the fold - that the Braves could shop Inciarte this winter. Certainly, they could, but they shouldn't sell him short. He now has 381 major league games under his belt and a 9.5 fWAR to show for it. While his numbers may never wow you, his overall value to a team is easy to see and difficult to replicate.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, 24 years-old

2016 Review: Another mixed bag, Jenkins made it to the majors this year nearly six years after being selected the 50th overall pick of the 2010 draft. In addition, his callup came just a few weeks after Jenkins was shifted to the bullpen. At that time, I felt it was the right move as I am not a big believer that Jenkins' best value comes in the starting rotation. However, with the starting staff's depth issues in 2016, the Braves moved Jenkins into the starting rotation to make his first big league start on July 6. He would make seven more starts through August 20. Jenkins had a nice run in there (3 starts, 18 innings, two earned runs allowed), but his last two starts sent his ERA skyrocketing to 6.20 when he was demoted. He appeared twice in September in the majors and ended the year with 52 innings pitched, more walks than strikeouts, and nearly a dozen homers surrendered. His minor league numbers were better, but nothing to write home about outside of 2.47 ERA matched with a 3.61 FIP.

2017 Projection: When he was acquired by the Braves, Jenkins was a top pitching prospect in a system that didn't have many to speak of. Now, he's lost in the crowd. There has always been a bit of disconnect between the potential pitcher Jenkins could become and the pitcher Jenkins has a better chance of being. He won't be 25 until next July, but progression has been lacking to this point. He did reach 120 innings for back-to-back years - something he never did with the Cards. Nevertheless, Jenkins will need considerable refinement to be a serious starting pitcher possibility for the Braves moving forward. A best-case scenario could see Jenkins developing into a Derek Lowe-type where he induces a lot of grounders and logs innings. I feel a more likely option is that Jenkins grows into a Cristhian Martinez type of reliever who can give you a few innings in mostly low-leverage opportunities. While that role has some value, it's a far cry from the hope the Braves and their fans had when he was acquired from the Cardinals nearly two years ago.

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Kevin Millwood's 1999 NLDS Rivals Kershaw's 2016 Effort

What Clayton Kershaw did last night was pretty amazing. Two days after throwing 110 pitches during Game Four of the NLDS against the Nationals, Kershaw got the call in the ninth inning with one out and two runners on base with his team clinging to a 4-3 lead. After a pop-up, Kershaw struck out the final batter of the game to send the Dodgers to the NLCS. It's the kind of thing that basically only happens in the postseason that we, as fans, love to see.

It also reminded me of something very similar that occurred in 1999. That year, another big fireballer took the ball in a save situation two days after a start when called upon by his manager. While it wasn't an elimination game for his team, what Kevin Millwood did in the '99 NLDS was still pretty impressive considering the dominant start that came in Game Two of that series.

The '99 Braves were loaded on the mound. Of course, you have the Big 3 of Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, and John Smoltz. In a time of skyrocketing offensive numbers, the Braves pitching staff led the majors with a 3.63 ERA. Surprisingly, on a staff with three future Hall of Famers, the best starter the Braves had that season was Millwood. He K'd 205 that year. In franchise history, only six other Braves have reached 200 strikeouts in a season. He led the staff in ERA as well and at just 24 , Millwood gave the Braves a young gun in an increasingly aging staff.

The bullpen was also loaded with a relatively mild version of John Rocker, a healthy Kevin McGlinchy, and a dominant Mike Remlinger along with other plus arms like Rudy Seanez and Russ Springer. The offense had seen Chipper Jones post MVP-type numbers while Andruw Jones was coming into his own. While the Braves were missing Javy Lopez (injury) and Andres Galarraga (lymphoma), they still bashed 197 homeruns - good for 4th in the NL.

After winning 103 games during the regular season, the Braves met the Houston Astros in the first round of the playoffs. For Houston, it was a chance at redemption. Built around the Killer B's (most notably, Jeff Bagwell and Craig Biggio), Houston had ended a drought in 1997 of over 10 years by making it to the playoffs. Atlanta quickly sent them home with a sweep that year. The next year, they lost in four to the Padres. Now, they drew the Braves once again.

Game One of the NLDS saw Greg Maddux face Shane Reynolds. It's easy to forget - especially for Braves fans who recall Reynolds' mediocrity with the Braves in 2003 - that Reynolds was a pretty good pitcher in the late 90's. In fact, from '95 to '99, Reynolds had a 3.73 ERA with 16 complete games and six shutouts over 165 starts. In a league that included such control artists as Maddux and Glavine, Reynolds led the NL in fewest walks per nine innings and K/B ratio in '99. Houston never trailed in Game One and pounded Remlinger in the ninth for four runs to cruise to a 6-1 win.

Rather than go with another future Hall of Famer in Game Two, Braves manager Bobby Cox tabbed Millwood as his guy. While Millwood had started 37 games the previous two seasons for the Braves, he had never appeared in a playoff game until that afternoon for the Braves. He would match up with the eccentric and exciting Jose Lima. After the Braves and Astros traded early runs, both pitchers would settle in until the sixth when Eddie Perez followed up a single-and-a-double with a sacrifice fly to plate Ryan Klesko. An inning later, Atlanta added three runs to extend their lead to 5-1. Meanwhile, Millwood was awesome. He gave up just one hit the entire afternoon - a homerun by Ken Caminiti. Only one other batter reached and that came via an error by Chipper Jones. Millwood would strike out eight batters, including Carl Everett and Ricky Gutierrez twice each. A Game Score of 89 is the highest postseason effort that any Braves pitcher has earned since at least 1903. That means what Millwood did that day was better than any postseason start by Smoltz, Glavine, Maddux, Johnny Sain, or even Warren Spahn.

In a short series, an effort like Millwood had in Game Two is usually the final time we see that player until the next round provided his team advances. But Millwood's 1999 was about to get even more special. As the series moved to Houston, Glavine matched up with future Brave, Mike Hampton. Many of us recall that Glavine sometimes struggled badly in his career in the first inning. This isn't just something we think happened - it did happen! In the first inning over his 22-year career, Glavine had an ERA of 4.58. His second "worst" inning is the 7th, where his ERA is 3.91. Glavine could look terrible in the first and settle down shortly thereafter to coast to a win. For a time, it looked like Game Three would be no different. Five of the first seven Astros reached, aided by a hit-by-pitch and two walks - the latter of which came with the bases loaded. Quickly, Hampton was staked to a 2-0 lead. It took two times through the lineup, but finally, in the sixth, the Braves figured out the lefty. With two outs, Bret Boone singled to left. After a wild pitch, Chipper Jones worked a walk. That set the stage for Brian Jordan and he did not disappoint. With one swing of the bat, Jordan put the Braves on top 3-2.

Glavine was replaced to begin the seventh by Terry Mulholland. He yielded a one-out double and Cox appeared to get a little too aggressive with his stacked pitching staff. He brought in Maddux to face Biggio. The battle of the Hall of Famers went to Biggio as he earned a walk. Cox then brought in Remlinger, who gave up a base-hit to tie the game. Remlinger would load the bases with one out by walking Bagwell intentionally, but got out of the jam from there. It remained tied at 3-3 in the tenth when Russ Springer loaded the bases with nobody out. Rocker got the call to try to put the flames out and extend the game into the 11th. After a groundout to first base led to a force-out at home, what happened next would become one of the biggest defensive plays of the 90's for the Atlanta Braves. Tony Eusebio rocketed a grounder up the middle. The infield was drawn in and the Astrodome turf did nothing to slow down the grounder, but as he did so often during his playing career, Walt Weiss was ready for the task. He dived to his left to get to the ball, did a 360 and threw to the plate to nail the runner trying to score.

The game continued with Rocker throwing a solid second inning of work in the 11th. In the 12th, the Braves' bats woke up once again and also once again, it was Jordan bringing the lumber. With two outs and a pair of runners on, Jordan ripped a double to right off future Brave, Jay Powell. Both runners scored. After an intentional walk, Rocker's spot was due up and the Braves opted for a pinch hitter. Needing a new arm on the mound, Cox again went with a starter. This time, it was Millwood. Rather than plug-and-play with a starter trying to defuse a rally, Cox allowed the big righty to begin an inning and it worked much better this time. Millwood got Caminiti to pop-up to third before a liner and a Carl Everett strikeout finished the 12-inning affair. A day later, the Braves would win 7-5 to advance to the NLCS - which ended on a walk-off walk (i.e. this blog's namesake).

Kershaw's save opportunity was definitely more impressive considering it was an elimination game with two runners already on base. That said, Millwood's start two days before the save was much more impressive. Which feat was greater?

Who really cares? Both were awesome and show just how exciting October baseball can be.