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Sunday, November 8, 2015

Random Former Prospect Sunday - Matt Belisle

During the season, Sundays are set aside to take a look at a prospect at random, but with the minor league season over, I wasn't sure what to do for my Sunday article until this nugget of an idea came my way. How about we look at players who ranked in Baseball America's Top 100 while part of the Braves' organization, yet never appeared for the Braves? Over the next few months, I'll take a look at the prospects that were traded or simply faded away and just to keep up with my theme, I randomized the players.

Two picks after the Reds selected Adam Dunn in the 1998 draft, the Braves took Matt Belisle, a right-hander out of McCallum High School in Austin, Texas. The Braves got the pick as a result of Greg Myers signing with the Padres. Belisle was the first pick the Braves had that year and their only pick out of the first overall 100 selections. He would also become the best major leaguer selected from the 49 players picked that year. #2? Ryan Langerhans picked in the third round. What a rough year.

2000 Spring Training
Scott Halleran | Getty Images
Belisle wouldn't sign until the rookie season was almost over so he made his debut with the 1999 Danville Braves. It was an underwhelming effort, but Belisle had a big sophomore season. With Macon, he kept his WHIP under 1 and had 97 K's to go with 18 walks in 102.1 ING. That kind of absurd control would remain a hallmark of his ability. Around his 20th birthday, Belisle was promoted to Myrtle Beach where he remained on fire. For the year, the durable right-hander tossed 181 innings and finished with a 2.83 ERA. Baseball America took notice and ranked him #28th after the year.

Remember that I said he was durable? Well, that typically was true, but he would miss all of 2001 with injury. Baseball America ranked him #96 entering 2002, but he would struggle with Greenville. While his control only took a minor stumble, his strikeouts saw a decline of over a K an inning. He was getting the ball up more and without the velocity to get away it, he surrendered a team-high 18 homeruns. Returning for another go in 2003, Belisle got the homer part of the equation under control, but the rest of his game continued to lag behind the brilliant numbers he had posted in 2000. Nevertheless, Atlanta promoted him to Richmond in July. More so than anything, it may have been a move to showcase the righty. He was decent in 20 innings with the R-Braves over three starts and walked nobody. On August 14, two days after the Braves had acquired Kent Mercker, Belisle was announced as the player heading to the Reds to complete the deal.

Belisle would make four starts for Louisville before being promoted for six games out of the pen in the majors. In his first outing on September 7, 2003 against the Cards, Belisle gave up his first run and home run on a 1-1 pitch to future manager, Mike Matheny. Overall, he would give up five runs in 8.2 innings.

After not making the Reds in 2004, Belisle spent the year suffering through an ugly season with Louisville where his ERA was 5.26. He would bounce back to spend all of the following year in the majors where he started 5 of 60 games. The results weren't all that pretty and some back trouble led him to only pitch 30 games in the majors in 2006. The Reds still didn't know how to use Belisle and tried him again as a starter in 2007 and unsurprisingly, it was an ugly 5.32 ERA year. One more year with injuries and poor play as a starter convinced the Reds to non-tender him after the '08 campaign.

It would be the best thing for Belisle. He landed in Colorado and after a year of working to develop his pitches, he finally found major league success in his age-30 season during the 2010 season. In 92 innings over 76 games, Belisle had nearly a K an inning, picked up only 11 unintentional walks, and magically kept his ERA under 3.00 in a city that punishes pitchers. It would be the beginning of a durable five years and while he never again was as excellent as he was in 2010, he was always a study relief option for the Rockies. In fact, from 2010-13, Belisle averaged 76 games, 69 innings, 12 unintentional passes, and a 2.92 FIP. He became a force in the pen for the Rockies, though you rarely heard about him.

Things took a turn toward mediocrity in 2014, though. In the final year of an extension he signed before the 2012 year, Belisle's strikeouts dropped off the map and he struggled to avoid big innings. By the end of the year, his FIP was at 3.74 - nearly seventy points higher than it had been in any of his previous four years. He did log an emergency start on August 15, which was the first time he had started a game since 2008.

After the season, the Rockies waved goodbye to Belisle and he signed with the Cardinals. He would only appear in 34 games for the NL Central Champs, missing a big chunk of the season due to arm troubles. He returned in September, but wasn't on the postseason roster. He did earn an ejection on September 18 when he threw at Anthony Rizzo in retaliation for Matt Holliday being hit. His manager, Matheny, the first player who ever homered off him in the majors, was likely the guy giving him the orders. While he finished the year with a 2.67 ERA, his best ERA in the majors, other metrics were a bit less impressed. His FIP/xFIP/SIERA was 3.64/4.52/4.21 - a far cry from his prime Rockies days.

Belisle has appeared in 558 games in the majors to this point and at 35, could continue his career for a few more years. Mercker was superb when the Braves picked him up in 2003 for Belisle. All in all, giving up a prospect who maxed out in his 30's as a middle reliever for a LOOGY turned out not to be a big loss.

Previous Random Former Prospects
Gorkys Hernandez

Wednesday, November 4, 2015

Reviewing Hart's Trades: KJ and Uribe for Gant and Whalen

The Braves have been active in John Hart's first season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.

With the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.

Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
Gattis for Foltynewicz and Ruiz
Hale for Briceno
Elander for Cahill and Lots of Cash
The Craig Kimbrel Trade
Callaspo for Uribe
Gosselin for Touki

The Trade
Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, and $500K to the Mets for John Gant and Robert Whalen. I looked at this deal at my other blog when it happened.

The Rationale
Scott Cunningham | Getty Images
Sometimes, it's difficult to really explain both sides of a trade - especially when you follow just one of the teams. In this case, this was a simple trade that comes down to one side wanting to better their chances to win now and the other looking to turn soon-to-be free agents into possible players for the future. The Braves weren't going anywhere and thankfully acknowledged that by dealing away two veterans.

KJ was a fun signing last offseason that actually turned into a big pickup. He had hit .264/.346/.430 as a Brave from 2005-09, but had been non-tendered following a .692 OPS in '09. He remained a regular starter through 2013 before transitioning into a backup role with three AL East teams in 2014. However, he hit just .215 with a .659 OPS. Those struggles allowed the Braves to swoop in with a minor league contract and a spring training invite. He got off to a poor start, but hit well enough over the final few weeks to make the roster. An oblique strain cost him some time, but KJ slashed .275/.321/.451 with 9 HRwhile playing a lot of left and filling in for an injured Freddie Freeman at first.

I looked at the Uribe deal a few days ago, but again, he caught fire with the Braves and slashed .285/.353/.464. Through a pair of deals, the Braves secured three young arms with the aid of Uribe. Pretty good haul.

We forget that at the time of this deal that the Mets were three backs at the end of July 24, which was the day this trade was announced. They were just a game over .500 and even trailed the Wild Card.

The haul they surrendered wasn't all that significant. We have heard a lot about their young pitching in the majors and with good reason. They are very solid. Trading young prospects like Gant and Whalen, neither a vital member of their projected future roster, was a pretty good exchange for them and also for the Braves because both pitchers had at least something that made them interesting.

Whalen, a 2012 12th round pick, was considered the better prospect of the two. Armed with a heavy fastball, Whalen is a control guy with the high-end ability of being a bit like 2015 Garrett Richards (20% K%, 9% BB%, 55% GB%, 12% HR/FB). Of course, that's the high-end. At the time of the trade, he was going through his second consecutive season of a K rate falling and a GB rate falling with it. Still, he had a 1.28 WHIP with St. Lucie and was young for the level.

A teammate of Whalen earlier in the year, Gant had made a half-dozen starts before being sent back to AA. He wasn't doing so hot there before or after the demotion to St. Lucie. The belief was that while Whalen had stuff that needed to be refined, Gant had guts and a deceptive delivery that kept hitters off balance. Gant was a guy you take a chance on, but it seemed like Whalen was the bigger get here.

Short-Term Results
Well, the Mets went to the World Series so there's that. KJ wasn't quite as good with the Mets, but he did provide depth at all four infield positions along with playing both corner outfield slots. He went 1-for-9 in the playoffs with 4 K's and a HBP. Uribe also saw his numbers decline post-trade, slashing .219/.301/.430 before missing a month with a chest injury that kept him out until Game 3 of the World Series.

But their value extended beyond filling in for injured Mets like David Wright if you read what the New York media focused on. Both players indicated to the fans and the team alike that the Mets were willing to add to their team in hopes of competing. While later pick-ups like Yoenis Cespedes and Tyler Clippard played bigger roles, it shouldn't be ignored what adding KJ and Uribe did for the culture and feeling around the team.

Meanwhile, Whalen headed to Carolina, but his time with the Mudcats was cut short by an injury in his third outing. He later posted a picture to Twitter about his injury and while I'm not sure exactly what the injury is, both knees were operated on and he pointed out later that he was glad to be running pain-free for the first time in two seasons. He'll be aiming for a return by spring training.

While Whalen went under the knife, Gant excelled. In seven starts for the Mississippi Braves, Gant struck out over a batter an inning and 3 K's for every walk. Meanwhile, he allowed just one homer and finished with a 1.03 WHIP and 1.99 ERA as a member of the Braves. Four of his outings ended with at least seven K's, including a 6 ING, 1 H, 9 K outing against Montgomery.

Long-Term Outlook
This trade completely shifts toward the Braves perspective now as both KJ and Uribe were granted free agency. Can Gant sustain his success to finish the year? He'll be eligible for the Rule 5 draft, though I imagine the Braves will add him to the 40-man roster to protect him. He could even be a darkhorse next spring, though it's far more likely that he'll be ticketed for a trip to Gwinnett.

As for Whalen, it's all going to be about health for him. He's avoided arm trouble and hand and knee injuries aren't typically that important, but not pitching 100 innings in a season four years into your career as a starter is. He'll likely return to Carolina, though he might be ready for Mississippi. Either way, if he's healthy and back on his game, Whalen gives the Braves another good prospect for the future to be used for trade fodder or as depth for the roster.

All in all, this was a good deal at the time and remains so. Neither Whalen, nor Gant, will be super impressive or garner a lot of prospect attention, but each is better than seeing KJ and Uribe produce for a bad ballclub.

Tuesday, November 3, 2015

Early Rule 5 Thoughts

We are still over a month away from the Rule 5 draft, but that won't stop us from taking a quick look. The basics of the Rule 5 draft are that any player who is not on the 40-man and fulfill one of the two criteria are eligible to be draft. 1) The player was 19 or older when he signed at least four years ago or 2) the player was 18 or younger when he signed at least five years ago. To simplify, college-age players who signed in 2012 or international/high school players who were signed in 2011.

The Braves have plenty of room on their 40-man roster after recent DFA's removed Todd Cunningham, Ryan Lavarnway, and Ryan Kelly among others. If you remove the soon-to-be free agents, I have the roster at 35 and 36 if Dian Toscano is finally re-instated. This includes guys that are on the 60-day DL - even Paco Rodriguez, who will miss all of 2016, but will need to be protected to keep him from being drafted this winter.

Here are some of the guys that will need to be added to the 40-man roster at some point before the Rule 5 draft or they will be eligible to be drafted. Spoiler alert, I don't see many. This list isn't exhaustive, but the guys who seem like good bets to garner some attention is pretty limited.

RHP John Gant - I missed this one before. Part of the haul the Braves got for Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe, Gant was on fire after the deal, finishing with a 1.03 WHIP and a strikeout an inning over seven games with Mississippi. He's not very projectionable, but could surprise some people and is a worthy of a spot on the 40-man roster if there's room.

RHP Ryne Harper - He was actually eligible last year. Harper's been stuck at Mississippi and has made 112 appearances there over the last three years, though it has nothing to do with his performance (2.17 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 10.2 K/9). Nobody went for the bait last winter so the Braves probably don't feel the need to add him to the 40-man this winter either.

RHP Tyler Jones - After flaming out in the Twins organization, Jones was excellent last season for the Braves and made his AA debut with 39 games, 16 saves, a 1.39 WHIP, and 10 K/9. He didn't allow a homerun all of last year and his WHIP may have been high only because he gave up a decent amount of hits (though that has been his M.O. during his career). Braves could add him to the 40-man, but I think they see the many other options as better fits.

C Jose Briceno - He had an awful 2015 and has not appeared above A-ball so the Braves will probably be safe not protecting him. A catching desperate team might consider Briceno, but Briceno's not the can't miss prospect you try to hide for a year on your bench.
Stacy Revere | Getty Images Sport

OF Mallex Smith - He'll be an easy keep for the Braves, of course. The Braves will probably add him in the days leading up to the draft. The only intriguing thing is what shape the outfield looks like by the time he gets added. Will the Braves have traded one or more of the veteran trio of Cameron Maybin, Michael Bourn, and Nick Swisher? Will Eury Perez, who is out of options, still be around? Will Dian Toscano be added to the roster? Without a move, the Braves will have six (seven with Toscano) outfielders on the 40-man, plus guys who might shift there for whatever reason like Adonis Garcia, Hector Olivera, and Joey Terdoslavich. That's a lot of depth to be centralized in the outfield.

As you can see, not a lot needs to be done here, though deals between now and then could muddy up the waters a bit.

Monday, November 2, 2015

Reviewing Hart's Trades: Gosselin for Touki

The Braves have been active in John Hart's first season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.

With the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.

Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
Gattis for Foltynewicz and Ruiz
Hale for Briceno
Elander for Cahill and Lots of Cash
The Craig Kimbrel Trade
Callaspo for Uribe

The Trade
Philip Gosselin to the Diamondbacks for Touki Toussaint and Bronson Arroyo

The Rationale
This one is easy to explain from Atlanta's point-of-view. They turned a backup infielder who had a .665 major league OPS to go with a minor league OPS of about .735 into a Top 100 prospect. The trouble is rationalizing this from the Diamondbacks' perspective.

Kevin C. Cox | Getty Images
On one end, the Diamondbacks shed about $10M in salary with this move from the roughly $5.5M Arroyo was owed for the remainder of 2015, plus a $4.5M buyout for 2016. So, there was some payroll flexibility here. And maybe Arizona had second thoughts on Toussaint a year after drafting him with the #16th overall pick of the 2014 draft. At the time of the draft, you could argue that Toussaint had as high of a ceiling as any other pitcher in that draft. The question was how far was he from reaching it because he was so raw.

But even with those potential concerns, the Diamondbacks essentially sold a great prospect to the Braves and in an environment where there are caps on draft slots and international bonus money, acquiring a guy a year removed from being a first round pick without having to pay from any of the pools of money that go to draft picks and signings was a coup for the Braves.

Losing Gosselin only hurt because Goose was a likeable high-effort guy who made the most out of not having a lot of talent. He had hit .266 the previous year while spelling Tommy La Stella against lefties and had got off to a good start in 2015 before fracturing his thumb about a month before this trade was completed.

Short-Term Results
Gosselin did make it back for a 24-game run to finish the year and hit the cover off the ball (.303/.382/.545). Chances are not good that 17% of his flyballs continue to leave the park, though Gosselin did do a better job at elevating the ball when he returned to live action.

Arroyo never played for the Braves and was later traded to the Dodgers in a mega deal that will be discussed soon enough. That one's going to take a lot of words.

Only 18, Toussaint continued to pitch A-ball after the trade. In ten games with Rome, he struggled with his control (6.1 BB/9) and gave up too many homers. There were times where he showed his A-game, though. On July 20, Toussaint faced Lakewood and shut them down over six hitless innings where he walked four and struck out eight. However, his next start was a nine-run stinker where he pitched just 3.1 ING. He was shut down for precautionary reasons in late August, which only cost him a start or two. His last game was a six-inning quality start where he gave up just one run and struck out five.

Long-Term Outlook
I suppose Goose could surprise us all and continue to hit, but I imagine he'll see his numbers travel toward a .700 OPS. He's got value as a super utility guy who can play short in a pinch and has moved out to left field. He even played some center during spring training. He's a guy who it's easy to root for even if he plays for the Diamondbacks now.

Arroyo has some post-2015 effect on the Braves depending on how their accounting works. As part of the Dodgers covering all of Hector Olivera's contract, the Braves chipped in to pay all but $500K of the remaining $3.4M on his 2015 salary. The Braves are also responsible for the $4.5M buyout for 2016.

But this trade comes down to Touki. Dave Stewart, when he defended this deal, balked at someone saying Touki could get it up to 96 mph. Maybe he was mad that someone short-changed Touki, who reached 98 with Rome. While he remains incredibly raw and won't have his training wheels taking off any time soon, the Braves have a lot of reason to love Toussaint and what he brings. He has ace potential in his right arm, but control will determine how close he comes to reaching it. One promising thing is that his pitches show flashes of greatness. The hard velocity with his fastball will get outs if he can control it. His changeup has a mature deception to it where he maintains his arm speed, but it too often misses high (translation: ball go far when that happens). His third pitch, a curve, has great biting action when he controls it and might become his best strikeout pitch

Regardless if Touki becomes a middle reliever or a starter at the major league level, this deal was a win by just taking a chance on him. He's got a chance to be tremendous and the Diamondbacks just gave him away. If the Craig Kimbrel trade wasn't the best deal the Braves completed since Frank Wren's firing, buying Touki off the D'Backs was.

As an aside, if you piggy-back this onto the Travor Cahill and Victor Reyes trades (the latter I didn't profile), the Braves effectively turned Josh Elander, Reyes, Gosselin, and about $15M in cash into Cahill, Arroyo, Touki, and the 75th overall pick of the 2015 draft - A.J. Minter, who missed his first season coming back from Tommy John. To put that into another streamlined way, they turned depth players into a pair of high-end prospects. You do that every day of the week if you can.

Reviewing Hart's Trades: Callaspo for Uribe

The Braves have been active in John Hart's first season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.

With the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.

Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
Gattis for Foltynewicz and Ruiz
Hale for Briceno
Elander for Cahill and Lots of Cash
The Kimbrel Trade

The Trade
Alberto Callaspo, Juan Jaime, Eric Stults, and Ian Thomas to the Dodgers for Juan Uribe and Chris Withrow

The Rationale
Justin K. Aller | Getty Images Sport
This was an odd trade. On May 27, the Braves and Dodgers were due to begin a three-game series in Los Angeles, but before the first game, this trade was announced. It seemed like the Dodgers were taking some of Atlanta's trash while the Braves were grabbing a guy who was a bit disgruntled with his playing time. But as the Braves did often in 2015, they made the Dodgers give a bit more than they got in return when Los Angeles gave up Withrow, who while hurt, might possess the most dynamic future of any of the six traded.

Callaspo had been the Braves' stopgap measure for second base, but when Jace Peterson had a good spring, Callaspo was relegated to third base where he shared time with the equally awful Chris Johnson. Callaspo played in 37 games with the Braves at the time of the trade and while he was doing a pretty stout job at third base, he had provided little in terms of offense.

But the Dodgers were good with Callaspo because they wanted to trade away Uribe. Even though Uribe had been productive as a Dodger, the team preferred the cheaper Callaspo along with moving a player who, while dealing with a hamstring issue, was wondering why he was sharing time with Justin Turner when had hit .295/.334/.439 with 21 HR during the 2013-14 seasons.

The deal started from the Uribe-for-Callaspo template, but didn't get very far after Callaspo denied to give the Braves permission to deal him. While he didn't have a no-trade clause, rules state that a player who has signed a free agent contract cannot be traded without his permission until June 15. Callaspo quickly reconsidered and why wouldn't he? Atlanta wanted to trade him so they didn't want him and they would deal him eventually. Why stay with them for a few more weeks?

The trade morphed beyond the two players. Ian Thomas was an interesting left-handed reliever out of indy ball who had made the Braves opening day roster in 2014, but had struggled to establish himself as a decent LOOGY. Juan Jaime was a hard-throwing righty who had already been designated for assignment and exposed to waivers earlier in the season. His triple digit heat was enticing, but he never had a grasp on where the ball was headed. As for Eric Stults, he had struggled badly after beating out Wandy Rodriguez in spring training. None of the players the Braves surrendered looked like keepers.

But the Braves did get a keeper in return by acquiring Withrow. A righty with great velocity, Withrow was almost a year removed from Tommy John surgery, which fans jokingly said was the reason the Braves targeted him. Well, it wasn't. What the Braves sought was the guy who had a 11.2 K/9, 3.4 BB/9, and 0.95 WHIP in 26 games with the Dodgers in 2013. He struggled with his control before going under the knife in his follow-up season, but the former 2007 1st rounder was heavy on potential. There was talk that Withrow would be a possibility for the Braves in the second half.

Short-Term Results
The Dodgers got very little out of this deal. Callaspo hit .260 after the trade with a .637 OPS before being released in late August. Thomas appeared in nine games, including a start. Overall, the numbers are not bad, nor good, because we're talking about only 18 innings. His minor league work wasn't much to write home about.

Jaime appeared with five different minor league stops after the trade. It was like the Dodgers were trying to work with him, though his control remains suspect. I imagine he'll be headed to the world of minor league free agency. Stults never appeared in the majors after the trade and instead split time between Tulsa (AA) and Oklahoma City (AAA). He was actually pretty good and will likely be hunting for another spring invite this winter.

While the Dodgers struck out, the Braves got Uribe's power, which helped a punchless lineup. He settled in as the regular third baseman while also providing high-caliber defense that CJ wasn't capable of. During a 46-game run with the Braves, he hit .285/.353/.817 with 7 HR. Fangraphs grades his time with the Braves as a 1.4 fWAR. Over a 162-game sample, that's a nearly 5 fWAR. True, he wouldn't have done that over a full season, but it does mean that he played at a high level when he was a Brave.

That production allowed the Braves to flip Uribe, along with Kelly Johnson, to the Mets for a couple of pitching prospects before the deadline.

Long-Term Outlook
You could add the Mets deal as an extension of this trade and how the two ex-Mets, John Gant and Robert Whalen, pitch for the Braves in the future will help in grading this deal long-term.

More importantly, how will Withrow do once he's finally back on the mound? He seems on track to pitch for the Braves this spring and could be a big part of Atlanta's hope to have a much-improved bullpen heading into 2016. Out of options, the Braves need Withrow to step back into form. He's also Super 2-eligible this offseason even though he only has 56 innings in the majors. Chances are that he won't get a lot more than the minimum.

Sunday, November 1, 2015

Random Former Prospect Sunday - Gorkys Hernandez

During the season, Sundays are set aside to take a look at a prospect at random, but with the minor league season over, I wasn't sure what to do for my Sunday article until this nugget of an idea came my way. How about we look at players who ranked in Baseball America's Top 100 while part of the Braves' organization, yet never appeared for the Braves? Over the next few months, I'll take a look at the prospects that were traded or simply faded away and just to keep up with my theme, I randomized the players.

Hernandez in 2014
Getty Images
He played in just 152 games in the Braves' minor league system between being involved in a couple of high profile trades, but that didn't stop Gorkys Hernandez from being ranked twice by Baseball America in the Top 100. He also was ranked as many times by Baseball Prospectus in its Top 100. Hernandez would soon become a journeyman speedster with an ever-increasing collection of jerseys rather than major league hits.

Signed out of Venezuela by the Tigers in 2005, Hernandez was a right-hand hitting teenager with speed and natural instincts in the outfield. He made his debut a year later by hitting .327 in the Gulf Coast League with 5 HR and 20 steals over 50 games. The interesting thing about the homer total was that it would be his personal high until 2013 when he hit six. Regardless of the flukish power, Hernandez was moved up the ladder the next year to West Michigan, where he hit .293 with 54 steals. He didn't walk a lot, but 19 year-olds generally don't light up the Midwest League.

During a winter league run with Caribas after the season, Hernandez became one of the first players sought by new general manager Frank Wren. The Tigers had made a hectic (but failed) run at getting back to the playoffs one year after losing in five games to the Cardinals. Incumbent shortstop Carlos Guillen had been very responsible for the success with 21 HR and an .859 OPS in 2007, but his defense, which was never that good, had gotten worse after turning 30 in '06. Meanwhile, the Braves were blessed with a glut of shortstops. Edgar Renteria had just finished up his second season of a Braves run where he slashed .310/.374/.451. He had missed some action in '07 and rookie Yunel Escobar had filled in superbly, hitting .326. The Braves also had Brent Lillibridge and Elvis Andrus on the farm. What they didn't have was much starting pitching, especially young pitching, to help support the Tim Hudson/John Smoltz-led staff.

Discussions between Dave Dombrowski and Wren centered on Jair Jurrjens, the young righty who had made his debut with the Tigers in '07. However, surrendering an established star like Renteria seemed like too big of a leap for a youngster with just 30.2 ING above AA ball (though all came with the Tigers). Hernandez was added to the deal and shortly after the 2007 playoffs ended, the deal was announced as Wren's first big move, though John Schuerholz certainly played a role.

While Jurrjens would go on to win a spot in the rotation and play a significant role for the 2008 Braves, Hernandez was assigned to Myrtle Beach after ranking #92 in Baseball America's Top 100. He would go to hit .264 with the Pelicans with 20 steals in 100 games. His OPS was only one point lower than his West Michigan's OPS the previous year, but the severe drop in steals was a sign of what was to come. After a 54-steal season, Hernandez has never stole more than 25 bases in a single season since. Still, for a 20 year-old playing in the Carolina League, plus spending half of his games in a stadium that can be impossible to drive the ball in depending on the wind, it was a successful season.

After improving his BA Top 100 ranking to #62 entering 2009, Hernandez got off to a fast start with Mississippi. Through 52 games, Hernandez was hitting .316 with a .748 OPS. But something was beginning to take shape in Atlanta...

The Atlanta Braves offense was meh in general during the 2009 season, but it was criminally awful in the outfield. In left field, the Braves had given someone named Garret Anderson the job. I'm told Anderson was formerly an All-Star for the Angels, but that wasn't the guy who played for the Braves. In right field, the Braves were still trotting out Jeff Francoeur on the regular. While Matt Diaz hid Anderson from lefties, the typical set of Anderson and Francoeur was rough, though you could say that at least they weren't Jordan Schafer-bad. Tasked with manning centerfield, Schafer had homered twice during the first weekend, including taking Brett Myers deep in his first plate appearance in the bigs. He remained productive through April, but things went to hell after that. He would later inform the Braves he had been playing hurt, but that didn't make the suckage any less acceptable.

With that in mind, the Braves sought an improvement in center and found it with Nate McLouth. The Pirates CF had just signed a long-term extension after going to an All-Star Game, winning a Gold Glove (undeserved), and leading the NL with 46 doubles in '08, but the Pirates were still willing to move him and the Braves were desperate. Packaging Hernandez with a pair of young starters, Charlie Morton and Jeff Locke, the Braves waved goodbye to the outfielder.

Once traded, Hernandez saw his numbers tail off with Altoona in the Eastern League. He would only OPS .652 after the trade, earning him a return trip to Altoona in 2010. His numbers remained poor and he missed a chunk of the season to injury. Needing to move him up, Hernandez made his AAA debut in 2011 and while he had lost his top prospect status following his poor finish to the 2009 season, Hernandez at least showed there was a chance he could return to form by hitting .283/.348/.392 with 21 steals with the Indianapolis Indians.

He got off to a meh-start to open 2012, but was promoted to the bigs in late May and appeared in 25 games for the Pirates, though received only 26 PA. He walked once, was hit by a pitch once, and managed two singles in the other 24 at-bats. The 2012 Pirates were actually not too far away from competing for a playoff spot so they tried to improve their team by sending Hernandez and a competitive draft selection to the Marlins for Gaby Sanchez. With the Marlins to finish the 2012 season, Hernandez played regularly and hit .212/.288/.341 with 5 steals.

After failing to make the Marlins roster in 2013, Hernandez headed back to AAA. His numbers remained underwhelming and less than a year after acquiring him, the Marlins traded Hernandez to the Royals for minor leaguer Alex McClure. While Dayton Moore made a practice of grabbing any ex-Braves prospect back then, Moore wasn't with the Braves when they had acquired Hernandez. Hernandez finished the year with a .633 OPS while playing for Omaha.

2014 would see Hernandez remain out of the picture. He returned to the Royals, but was purchased by the White Sox a few weeks into the season. Hernandez lasted just two months after that before being cut. He hit just .233/.291/.286 in 51 games overall. He headed down to Mexico to finish the year and hit wonderfully down there.

The Pirates came calling in 2015, giving Hernandez a second shot with the organization he had made his debut with back in 2012. He didn't make the roster coming out of spring, but did hit .288/.365/.406 in his return to Indianapolis. On June 28, the Pirates were playing a visiting Atlanta Braves club. The previous day, Andrew McCutchen had been hit by a pitch and was removed for precautionary reasons. The Pirates grew tired, yet again, of Jose Tabata and wanted a look at Hernandez along with adding depth. Hernandez would start in right field vs. the Braves and go 0-for-3. He would play seven more games and received two at-bats, though he remained hitless. In July, he was DL'd for shoulder discomfort and when healthy, he was outrighted to Indianapolis, where he would finish the season.

Hernandez just turned 28 and has hit .186/.260/.292 during his 78 games in the majors. He'll look for a good situation this winter while continuing his yearly return to Caribes in the Venezela Winter League.

This Week at AtlantaBraves.About.com!

Been falling behind on my schedule, but here's four articles I posted this week at my other blog. I've also posted two recent posts here at this blog.

Previewing Some Braves' Targets for Free Agent Relievers

The Braves have said they want to go shopping for relief help to supplement Arodys Vizcaino, Jason Grilli, and others. Who should they target? My thinking is that they don't get too much into the big priced free agents and focus more on some more affordable options and buy-low guys. Maybe less Tyler Clippard and more Antonio Bastardo and Shawn Kelley.

7 Braves Better for Leaving Baseball

Not all draft picks work out, but many do find employment elsewhere where they reach new successes. These seven focused on football with one of them becoming a Hall of Famer and another becoming one of the most well-known coaches in college football.

Top 5 Relievers in Braves History

Since the 80's, the Braves have seen a quartet of pitchers reach the 100-save plateau. Who was better - Craig Kimbrel or John Smoltz? Did Mark Wohlers do enough to rank in the Top 5 before his control disappeared? See how they rank.

The Braves Should Avoid Daniel Murphy

While his World Series run so far has not been nearly as successful as his seven-homer barrage against the Cardinals and Cubs, Daniel Murphy has still increased his value and exposure as he prepared to hit the free agent market. Even though the Braves could use help at second base, they should stay away from Murphy. The years, production, and money are just not good fits for the Braves.

Thanks for reading!