Let's start with this undisputable fact. The decision the Braves faced wasn't to keep Jason Heyward and get a compensation draft choice vs. getting Shelby Miller, Tyrell Jenkins, and signing Nick Markakis. This makes John Hart's decision-making look better, but lumping Markakis into that isn't fair. Both deals should be looked at separately for what they do for the club. Theoretically, you can make the argument that they should be tied together because without trading Heyward, the signing wouldn't happen, but that might not be true since the Braves, even after replacing Heyward, may still deal their other corner outfielder, Justin Upton.
So, let's delve deeper into the signing of Markakis. It sucks.
While many have continued to praise this signing, it's a miserable investment for Atlanta and that's with the acceptance that Markakis probably won't be overpaid over the lifetime of the contract. If 1 fWAR is worth $7 million this offseason, Markakis would simply have to [produce 6 to 7 fWAR to fulfill his value to the Braves. Even if you think Markakis isn't worth the investment, $44M over four seasons is not an unreasonable sum for someone who posted 5.8 fWAR over the last four seasons and was hurt in one of those years (plus posted a 0.0 fWAR in an entire 700 PA season, which still boggles my mind).
And no, David O'Brien, fWAR shouldn't account for everything. We use it as a simple comparison tool. Over the last two completely healthy seasons, years where Markakis has came to the plate at least 700 times, and two full years since his hamate bone fracture in 2012, Markakis' offensive skills come out in full sad detail. Let me start by saying 122 players qualify for this two year comparison. Markakis ranks as such: 114th in isolated power (.098), 98th in wOBA (.312), and 97th in RC+ (97).
The majority of players that consistently rank below Markakis in those three good stats for comparing offense are players whose value likes in defense like Andrelton Simmons, Gerardo Parra, and Zack Cozart. And yet, we have continuously been told about Markakis's defensive capabilities. After all, we are talking about a two time Gold Glove winner, including last year. So the argument has been thrown around that the Braves replaced a Gold Glove winner with a Gold Glove winner. That argument is correct. However, that argument ignores that Gold Glove choices aren't always justified by the numbers. In 2012, Carlos Gonzalez and Andrew McCutchen robbed the Braves of an All Gold Glove outfield, awards that should have gone to Martin Prado and Michael Bourn. As Joe Posnaski points out, Gold Gloves have come some way, but they still appear to award guys based on their hitting ability.
That would explain how Markakis has two of the awards because the defensive metrics do not support him. His defense reminds me of what people say about his new teammate Freddie Freeman. Sure-handed and with a plus arm for his position, Markakis, like Freeman, lack one important ability. Range. Markakis has always been below average when it comes to range in right field (often nearing the category of awful). You can limit that affect through defensive shifts and your pitchers pitching to the defensive alignment, but there will almost certainly be times where his range shows up. Another Braves comparison on defense might be the guy whose batted ball was the last chance Markakis was credited an error on. Jeff Francoeur. Frenchy had his pluses...notably his tremendous arm...but his range was poor. He won a Gold Glove, though. Because...reasons.
This signing would look a good deal better as a two-year contract, but the Braves gave him four years. Like they gave Derek Lowe. You might recall Lowe's time in Atlanta, though if you've blocked it out, I can't blame you. Lowe was a limited pitcher who earned more praise from the media than from sabermetric outlets, though there were fewer voices on the latter front at the time. While one can (and has) argue(d) that Lowe's signing was out of desperation and giving him four years was a response to a need to sign someone after missing out on other targets, I believe giving a guy four years when he's coming off the two worst power seasons of his career and doesn't stand a high chance of improving is fairly desperate.
Now, maybe Markakis is a wonderful leader. After all, some Baltimore Orioles are upset that their team let him go. I understand the argument that over a 162 game season, leadership does have value and the Braves may have lost leadership over the last three years with departures of Chipper Jones, Prado, Brian McCann, David Ross, and Eric Hinske. I'm not against grabbing a player with leadership skills. But let's not pay for it.
Finally, the thing that strikes me about this signing is the disconnect between the more traditional baseball fan and the one that goes to fangraphs so often that Crome automatically assumes when you type "f," you are headed there instead of facebook. Mike Petriello wrote a great article yesterday ahead of the announced signing about this. Markakis was amazingly a highly sought after free agent despite being similar to Nori Aoki. This mentality was reinforced with social media announcements of praise along with blog posts from people I respect saying that this signing was a good one. To me, and people who think like me, the most we can say is that we are cautiously optimistic. Maybe Markakis's increase in range last year lasts. Maybe he plays so well in the first two years that the deal becomes a no brainer in terms of bang for buck. Maybe home cooking will do him some good. Maybe, if, possibly, if we get lucky...
But my realistic expectations are very low. This deal reeks of desperation. It's as if Hart can't decide between rebuilding and building for a 2015 where the Braves are competing. I'm rather curious as to where the direction is in the general manager's office, but then I remember that Hart was too good for that title. What's next? Trading Upton for three prospects and giving Jon Lester a six year deal?
My biggest worry this offseason was that the front office would half-ass a rebuild rather than full-ass. So far, my worry has intensified.
Thursday, December 4, 2014
Sacrificing Value for Financial Freedom
No other sport seems to experience the phenomenon known as a salary dump like baseball. With no salary cap, exchanging large salaries becomes much more doable. With a cap, everything has to fit just right. Third and fourth teams get involved so that the cap remains pristine. But even when that happens, the other team often has to take on salary in one form or another. In baseball, teams have more freedom. In the past few years, we have seen major blockbuster salary dumps both during the season (Red Sox/Dodgers trade in 2012) and the offseason (Blue Jays/Marlins a few months later). And both teams doing the dumping, the Red Sox and Marlins, couldn't have been more different. The Sox were a high profile, high payroll squad while the Marlins were tearing down their franchise after the splashes the previous winter.
Since taking his current job as President of Baseball Operations, John Hart has mentioned payroll flexibility a few times as a true hindrance to the Braves. Frank Wren made a lot of great trades with the Braves, but a few contracts truly blew up in his face. The Braves will pay Dan Uggla $13.2M to not play with the Braves in 2015. But the bigger blow comes with the B.J. Upton contract, a deal that the Braves still owe $47.15M on over the next three seasons. That's cash that could have been used to sign Jason Heyward long-term or really get into the Jon Lester bidding, though I'm not anxious to do that even if I have the payroll space. For a $112M payroll, B.J.'s salary in 2015 would account for 13.4% of the salary. Unfortunately, B.J.'s going to have to be considerably better in 2016 to account for 13.4% of the value the offense generates and that is unlikely to happen.
Unsurprisingly, this has forced Hart to seek out any trading partner willing to consider B.J. From there, talks can be had that discuss how much cash would accompany B.J. to his next team and what compensation the Braves will receive. A bad salary for a bad salary trade has been theorized as a possibility, similar to when the Cubs traded Milton Bradley to the Mariners for Carlos Silva. In mid-November, I discussed some possibile scenarios for a trade that looks into a swap of bad contracts.
Ken Rosenthal points out that the Braves might be trying a different approach, though. According to the article, during the summer, the Braves and Astros were discussing a trade that would have moved catcher Evan Gattis to the Astros. The trade would sent Gattis home and probably bring back considerable value considering Gattis is team controlled for four seasons, including one more year before arbitration hikes up his salary. The trade talk with Wren apparently didn't go too far.
This offseason, the Astros were once again calling on Gattis and Hart followed with this caveat. Sure, you can have Gattis, but you gotta take B.J., too.
Other players were discussed, including Dexter Fowler, but the big thing for the Braves out of this trade would be that the Astros would take on all of B.J.'s contract. To this point, it has been assumed the only way the Braves could get rid of Upton was to assume most of his salary in a trade, dumping the player and lots of cash onto the team that would take Upton. Such a move would provide the team with little financial freedom and they would still need to get a center fielder.
But if packaging him with Gattis means that $15M comes off the books next year and $32M the next two years is freed, is that an acceptable return on trading Gattis? As usual, there are at least two ways of looking at that question. Is it acceptable to free up cash and enter the 2016 free agent market with roughly $40-$50M to spend? If you're curious, that market includes, conditional on extensions, outfielders Drew Stubbs, Austin Jackson, the aforementioned Fowler, B.J.'s older brother Justin Upton, and yeah, that Heyward guy. Alex Gordon has a player option he might decline as well. Starters like Johnny Cueto, Doug Fister. Mat Latos, and Jordan Zimmermann will also be on the market if they aren't locked up first.
The flipside of the argument is that...is it acceptable to sacrifice prospects that could help the Braves over the next several years in order to simply rid yourself of Upton? Gattis's trade value may be at its highest with four years of team control and recent time behind the plate ahead of any silly move to left. Not cashing in on that trade value could prove foolish, especially when the Braves system is so bare beyond their top talent. Adding two or three grade B or better prospects in a trade that sends Gattis packing, especially to a team with a stockpile of young prospects like the Astros, could provide a significant step toward a quick turnaround toward competing in 2017. Sure, Upton might still be in center that season, but the young talent on the team should be much better and the depth will be improved.
Rarely, do these deals happen and that might tell us something. Salary dumps are common, but dumping salary and an established major league hitter who provides above average production at a premium position? I am drawing a blank on a comparable trade. Sometimes, the team dumping salary has added a prospect, but that's about it. Maybe that sheds light on the likelihood of this trade happening, though. Since trades like this don't seem to happen, we probably shouldn't expect it. There is a higher chance of maximizing player return in a deal that includes Gattis and the other Upton brother.
However, I come away believing that if this deal went down, even if the return was, as expected, minimal...it's still a good trade. The Braves would get a chance to start over. If they can move Chris Johnson and the younger Upton in a trade, like the one I mentioned last week, the Braves would be able to push forward with a massive rebuild with a lot of young talent and the financial freedom to hit the free agent market hard after 2015. They could even take on salary in a trade provided the salary they were taking on belonged to a good player.
While I do like the idea of a trade return on Gattis that brings back serious talent, I love the idea of a reboot better.
Since taking his current job as President of Baseball Operations, John Hart has mentioned payroll flexibility a few times as a true hindrance to the Braves. Frank Wren made a lot of great trades with the Braves, but a few contracts truly blew up in his face. The Braves will pay Dan Uggla $13.2M to not play with the Braves in 2015. But the bigger blow comes with the B.J. Upton contract, a deal that the Braves still owe $47.15M on over the next three seasons. That's cash that could have been used to sign Jason Heyward long-term or really get into the Jon Lester bidding, though I'm not anxious to do that even if I have the payroll space. For a $112M payroll, B.J.'s salary in 2015 would account for 13.4% of the salary. Unfortunately, B.J.'s going to have to be considerably better in 2016 to account for 13.4% of the value the offense generates and that is unlikely to happen.
Unsurprisingly, this has forced Hart to seek out any trading partner willing to consider B.J. From there, talks can be had that discuss how much cash would accompany B.J. to his next team and what compensation the Braves will receive. A bad salary for a bad salary trade has been theorized as a possibility, similar to when the Cubs traded Milton Bradley to the Mariners for Carlos Silva. In mid-November, I discussed some possibile scenarios for a trade that looks into a swap of bad contracts.
Ken Rosenthal points out that the Braves might be trying a different approach, though. According to the article, during the summer, the Braves and Astros were discussing a trade that would have moved catcher Evan Gattis to the Astros. The trade would sent Gattis home and probably bring back considerable value considering Gattis is team controlled for four seasons, including one more year before arbitration hikes up his salary. The trade talk with Wren apparently didn't go too far.
This offseason, the Astros were once again calling on Gattis and Hart followed with this caveat. Sure, you can have Gattis, but you gotta take B.J., too.
Other players were discussed, including Dexter Fowler, but the big thing for the Braves out of this trade would be that the Astros would take on all of B.J.'s contract. To this point, it has been assumed the only way the Braves could get rid of Upton was to assume most of his salary in a trade, dumping the player and lots of cash onto the team that would take Upton. Such a move would provide the team with little financial freedom and they would still need to get a center fielder.
But if packaging him with Gattis means that $15M comes off the books next year and $32M the next two years is freed, is that an acceptable return on trading Gattis? As usual, there are at least two ways of looking at that question. Is it acceptable to free up cash and enter the 2016 free agent market with roughly $40-$50M to spend? If you're curious, that market includes, conditional on extensions, outfielders Drew Stubbs, Austin Jackson, the aforementioned Fowler, B.J.'s older brother Justin Upton, and yeah, that Heyward guy. Alex Gordon has a player option he might decline as well. Starters like Johnny Cueto, Doug Fister. Mat Latos, and Jordan Zimmermann will also be on the market if they aren't locked up first.
The flipside of the argument is that...is it acceptable to sacrifice prospects that could help the Braves over the next several years in order to simply rid yourself of Upton? Gattis's trade value may be at its highest with four years of team control and recent time behind the plate ahead of any silly move to left. Not cashing in on that trade value could prove foolish, especially when the Braves system is so bare beyond their top talent. Adding two or three grade B or better prospects in a trade that sends Gattis packing, especially to a team with a stockpile of young prospects like the Astros, could provide a significant step toward a quick turnaround toward competing in 2017. Sure, Upton might still be in center that season, but the young talent on the team should be much better and the depth will be improved.
Rarely, do these deals happen and that might tell us something. Salary dumps are common, but dumping salary and an established major league hitter who provides above average production at a premium position? I am drawing a blank on a comparable trade. Sometimes, the team dumping salary has added a prospect, but that's about it. Maybe that sheds light on the likelihood of this trade happening, though. Since trades like this don't seem to happen, we probably shouldn't expect it. There is a higher chance of maximizing player return in a deal that includes Gattis and the other Upton brother.
However, I come away believing that if this deal went down, even if the return was, as expected, minimal...it's still a good trade. The Braves would get a chance to start over. If they can move Chris Johnson and the younger Upton in a trade, like the one I mentioned last week, the Braves would be able to push forward with a massive rebuild with a lot of young talent and the financial freedom to hit the free agent market hard after 2015. They could even take on salary in a trade provided the salary they were taking on belonged to a good player.
While I do like the idea of a trade return on Gattis that brings back serious talent, I love the idea of a reboot better.
Wednesday, December 3, 2014
Howdy Jim!
Coming off his worst season in the majors, Jim Johnson is taking his talents to The Ted for 2015 after inking a one-year contract on Wednesday with the Braves. A former fifth round choice by the Orioles in 2001, Johnson led baseball in saves in 2012-13, but after a trade to Oakland last winter, the wheels came off. Johnson, who normally possesses great control, walked nearly 6 batters per nine innings last season while being unceremoniously benched from his closing job by the A's and released on August 1st. The Tigers, who were desperate for any relief pitching, gave him a look and he wasn't much better.
It was a major fall from grace for Johnson after 2012-13. However, the O's, to their credit, were smart to get anything for Johnson after he blew nine save opportunities in 2013. Johnson is a rare four-pitch reliever, relying on his hard sinking fastball 60% of the time while sprinkling in a curveball to righties and a changeup to lefties. He also can gun in a four-seamer in efforts to get the hitter chasing up in the zone. This repertoire unsurprisingly leads to a lot of groundballs. Since 2011, his groundball rate in each season has been 58% or better. Luis Avilan led the Braves with that rate last season.
Even at Johnson's best, as he was between 2011-13, he won't post very high strikeout numbers. His best K/9 rate is 7.17 in 2013 and his career rate is about a strikeout less. He's known for giving up a crushing homer, too. His career rate of 0.58 with that kind of groundball rate is a little concerning.
However, he was still very productive with FIP's ranging between 3.22 and 3.45 and xFIP between 3.38 and 3.63. Those are respectable, but last season, he walked 35 in 53.1 ING. To put that into perspective, in the two seasons preceding that, he walked 33 in 139 innings. A pitcher like Johnson, who relies on location over stuff, can't pitch effectively either behind in the count or with runners on base.
That turdball of a season led to Johnson missing out on huge payday this winter. He will try his luck again after the season and will earn a base salary of $1.6M in 2015 with another $900K possible in incentives. While closing pays much more than middle relief, Johnson would look to get paid well if he finds his control and posts a season closer to his All-Star quality 2012 (3.26 FIP, 1.02 WHIP). Even his weaker follow-up campaign in 2013 would do the trick. The Braves are counting on that.
They are also counting on his one-year deal being attractive in July if the Braves aren't able to compete this season. Acquiring a good prospect for their investment in Johnson could be the king of shrewd move that gets the Braves a little closer to being in position to make a jump back to top contender status.
It was a major fall from grace for Johnson after 2012-13. However, the O's, to their credit, were smart to get anything for Johnson after he blew nine save opportunities in 2013. Johnson is a rare four-pitch reliever, relying on his hard sinking fastball 60% of the time while sprinkling in a curveball to righties and a changeup to lefties. He also can gun in a four-seamer in efforts to get the hitter chasing up in the zone. This repertoire unsurprisingly leads to a lot of groundballs. Since 2011, his groundball rate in each season has been 58% or better. Luis Avilan led the Braves with that rate last season.
Even at Johnson's best, as he was between 2011-13, he won't post very high strikeout numbers. His best K/9 rate is 7.17 in 2013 and his career rate is about a strikeout less. He's known for giving up a crushing homer, too. His career rate of 0.58 with that kind of groundball rate is a little concerning.
However, he was still very productive with FIP's ranging between 3.22 and 3.45 and xFIP between 3.38 and 3.63. Those are respectable, but last season, he walked 35 in 53.1 ING. To put that into perspective, in the two seasons preceding that, he walked 33 in 139 innings. A pitcher like Johnson, who relies on location over stuff, can't pitch effectively either behind in the count or with runners on base.
That turdball of a season led to Johnson missing out on huge payday this winter. He will try his luck again after the season and will earn a base salary of $1.6M in 2015 with another $900K possible in incentives. While closing pays much more than middle relief, Johnson would look to get paid well if he finds his control and posts a season closer to his All-Star quality 2012 (3.26 FIP, 1.02 WHIP). Even his weaker follow-up campaign in 2013 would do the trick. The Braves are counting on that.
They are also counting on his one-year deal being attractive in July if the Braves aren't able to compete this season. Acquiring a good prospect for their investment in Johnson could be the king of shrewd move that gets the Braves a little closer to being in position to make a jump back to top contender status.
Braves Seeking Heyward Without the All-Around Ability
According to Jon Heyman, the Atlanta Braves are considered one of the leaders to sign former Baltimore Orioles outfielder Nick Markakis this offseason. Obviously, there is no contract to speak of, but some projected Markakis to be in the $45M-$50M over four years range, an average salary of at least $11M.
Some went to twitter to show their agreement.
Some, like me, wondered just what in the wide world of sports is going on here? I know the Braves need an outfielder, especially if they are still in the market to trade Justin Upton, but how does a 31 year-old two-win player fit into the picture?
More, the Braves already had Markakis in a way. Before his trade last month, Jason Heyward was expected to man one of the outfield positions. Offensively, the two have rather similar numbers throughout their careers, even if Markakis has roughly twice as many games. They aren't exactly the same as Heyward walked and struck out more while Markakis hit for a higher batting average. Other numbers are much closer. ISO (.167-.145 - Heyward), wOBA (.347-.345 - Markakis), RC+ (117-112 - Heyward). Here is a comparison of the two by year in wOBA. Pay special attention to when Heyward came into the league and how similar the two are.
Heyward had one thing that Markakis severely lacks, however. All-around ability. Base-running, base-stealing, and some of the best defense in baseball - this was how Heyward provided the team value. That is how Heyward, in a season where he showed depressingly low power, was twice the player as Markakis according to fWAR. Since coming into the league, Heyward has amassed 21.4 fWAR in five seasons. Markakis, in nine seasons, has amassed 22.6. If we limit that to since Heyward joined the Braves, despite playing in what we traditionally refer to as the prime of his career (upper 20's), Markakis has been worth just 8.2 fWAR. That includes a ridiculous 2013 campaign where Markakis came to the plate 700 times and was credited with 0.0 fWAR, a mathematical improbability.
Again, that was playing in his ages 26 through 30 seasons. Therein lies the other problem with Markakis. He just turned 31 and, in a four-year contract, would be playing through his age-34 year. He's posted his three worst wOBA's in the last four years. To his credit, outside of one year, he has been very durable. The caveat to that statement is that the one year, 2012, was a season in which he fractured his hamate bone in his right wrist. This is not an uncommon injury in baseball to hitters, though. Former Brave Eric Hinske suffered it in 2003 and switch-hitter and recently very rich Pablo Sandoval has suffered it to both wrists. It shouldn't have sapped him of much power, though his ISO over the last two years are noticeably lower than the rest of his career.
Further, signing Markakis is a confusing addition for a team shedding salary and building for the future. On a two-year deal, it makes a little sense. Markakis could play out this season and the Braves, if they struggle in 2016, could use him for a deadline trade. But now? With this team? On a four year contract? It just doesn't seem like a move that a team with a MLB-experienced front office would do.
Of course, Atlanta could be blowing smoke up our butts. Keep talking to every free agent and perform your due diligence, all the while giving the home fans some rumors to distract them. Similar to Jon Lester, the Braves are just kicking the tires and no offer will be made. I can hope so because Markakis is exactly the wrong player for the Braves to make a splash on.
Some went to twitter to show their agreement.
Some, like me, wondered just what in the wide world of sports is going on here? I know the Braves need an outfielder, especially if they are still in the market to trade Justin Upton, but how does a 31 year-old two-win player fit into the picture?
More, the Braves already had Markakis in a way. Before his trade last month, Jason Heyward was expected to man one of the outfield positions. Offensively, the two have rather similar numbers throughout their careers, even if Markakis has roughly twice as many games. They aren't exactly the same as Heyward walked and struck out more while Markakis hit for a higher batting average. Other numbers are much closer. ISO (.167-.145 - Heyward), wOBA (.347-.345 - Markakis), RC+ (117-112 - Heyward). Here is a comparison of the two by year in wOBA. Pay special attention to when Heyward came into the league and how similar the two are.
Heyward had one thing that Markakis severely lacks, however. All-around ability. Base-running, base-stealing, and some of the best defense in baseball - this was how Heyward provided the team value. That is how Heyward, in a season where he showed depressingly low power, was twice the player as Markakis according to fWAR. Since coming into the league, Heyward has amassed 21.4 fWAR in five seasons. Markakis, in nine seasons, has amassed 22.6. If we limit that to since Heyward joined the Braves, despite playing in what we traditionally refer to as the prime of his career (upper 20's), Markakis has been worth just 8.2 fWAR. That includes a ridiculous 2013 campaign where Markakis came to the plate 700 times and was credited with 0.0 fWAR, a mathematical improbability.
Again, that was playing in his ages 26 through 30 seasons. Therein lies the other problem with Markakis. He just turned 31 and, in a four-year contract, would be playing through his age-34 year. He's posted his three worst wOBA's in the last four years. To his credit, outside of one year, he has been very durable. The caveat to that statement is that the one year, 2012, was a season in which he fractured his hamate bone in his right wrist. This is not an uncommon injury in baseball to hitters, though. Former Brave Eric Hinske suffered it in 2003 and switch-hitter and recently very rich Pablo Sandoval has suffered it to both wrists. It shouldn't have sapped him of much power, though his ISO over the last two years are noticeably lower than the rest of his career.
Further, signing Markakis is a confusing addition for a team shedding salary and building for the future. On a two-year deal, it makes a little sense. Markakis could play out this season and the Braves, if they struggle in 2016, could use him for a deadline trade. But now? With this team? On a four year contract? It just doesn't seem like a move that a team with a MLB-experienced front office would do.
Of course, Atlanta could be blowing smoke up our butts. Keep talking to every free agent and perform your due diligence, all the while giving the home fans some rumors to distract them. Similar to Jon Lester, the Braves are just kicking the tires and no offer will be made. I can hope so because Markakis is exactly the wrong player for the Braves to make a splash on.
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Embrace the Rebuild and Consider a Kimbrel Trade
It's tempting when you have the best player at his position to want to keep him as long as possible. In football, if you have the best quarterback, you'll pay him whatever he wants and hope his success will compensate for a lack of depth on defense. In baseball, if you have the best pitcher, you give him whatever he desires. After all, you cannot replace Clayton Kershaw.
So, it is understandable that Craig Kimbrel was labelled untouchable and safe from being moved, according to WSB's Zach Klein in mid-November. Since becoming the Braves' closer four years ago, Kimbrel has saved 185 games, nearly 50 more than the next best total. Among relievers, he's K'd 436, or 25 more than the next pitcher on the list. His 1.51 ERA tops the list, slightly ahead of our old pal Eric O'Flaherty and only one pitcher tops Kimbrel's 0.88 WHIP. All the while, he has been incredibly durable, throwing the 8th most innings out of the pen in the 11th most games.
Last winter, Kimbrel was one of the players handed long-term extensions during Frank Wren's final offseason with the Braves. He earned $7M last year as part of the deal and is owed $9M in 2015, $11M in 2016, and $13M in 2017. In 2018, there exists a club option that would pay Kimbrel an additional $13M with a $1M buyout in case the option wasn't exercised. So, on the light end, Kimbrel is owed $34M over the next three seasons.
That's $34M the Braves would paying a guy to close games for a team that might not be competitive.
Pretty clear where I'm headed, right? Strike now and deal away Kimbrel if someone is willing. Don't give him away, but if there is a deal out there with a good return, take it.
Uh, you just said he's the best at this position. Shouldn't we want the best?
Most of the time, absolutely. You want the best center fielder (gotta work on that). You want the best starter (or second best since Kershaw is kinda locked up). You even want the best closer, but only if your team can optimize his talent. Closing the game is an often overrated "skill," but it pays handsomely and teams often are thoroughly concerned about what will happen if they are competitors that lack a shutdown guy. For a team rebuilding, though, a closer is not a necessity, but a luxury. The Phillies, for instance, are paying a considerable sum for Jonathan Papelbon. While an ass, he has been pretty good at his job. However, since joining Philly, his teams have won 81 games and 73 twice. Yet, in that time, he has been paid $37,000,058 and will get another $13M next year for a team largely considered to be, at best, a threat to finish .500.
Seems like a waste to me. That's $13M that Ruben Amaro Jr. could have sunk into someone who's older than 34.
Let me be clear. Kimbrel's not overpaid and the Braves won't be able to replace his talent. I think I pointed out how good those talents are. Let me add that I don't even know a team that it would make sense to deal Kimbrel to right now. The Yankees could use him, but would the Braves get the haul they must get in prospects from them? I doubt that. I don't want this to sound like a plea to trade Kimbrel asap. I'd rather keep him if there's no high-end package of talent coming Atlanta's way.
Also, it's worth noting that trading closers doesn't often bring back all that much. Last season, all the White Sox received for Addison Reed was Matt Davidson. Now, Davidson was a top-100 prospect before falling on his face last year, but Reed had four years of team control and was coming off a 40 save season. One B+ prospect for a pretty good closer who was 14th in fWAR among relievers that season? Back in the 2007-08 offseason, the Astros got a trio of players, led by Michael Bourn, for one year of control for Brad Lidge, but that example is a bit outdated and Bourn was the only piece that eventually became productive out of the trade.
If not now, maybe things could open up during the season. The Rangers picked up a pair of former high draft choices in pitchers Jake Thompson and Corey Knebel last July. Thompson is a starter with intriguing strikeout rates while Knebel is a reliever with incredible ratios, but neither jumped off the page as significant prospects. At the deadline in 2010, the Nationals picked up pitcher Joe Testa and a catcher for Matt Capps. Testa washed out, but the catcher, Wilson Ramos, would develop into a talented, if not often-injured, starter behind the plate. He was also a solid B to B+ prospect at the time of the trade.
A three-team deal with a flurry of moving parts might bring more Atlanta's way, though Atlanta would probably be moving more than just Kimbrel. Of course, the Braves could choose to go beyond a swap of Kimbrel and prospects and package another piece or two with Kimbrel. That's always a possibility especially if it helps the Braves acquire marquee talent.
Clearly, if Atlanta trades Kimbrel, there must be a high price tag that someone has met because other trades involving closers didn't bring in a return I think many fans, including myself, feel a player of Kimbrel's abilities deserve. You would think that once David Robertson, the best closer on the market, signs with a team this winter, teams would be desperate with only one other "closer" available in the form of Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod was good for the Brewers last year, but I don't think anyone's knocking each other over to attain his services. Sergio Romo and Rafael Soriano both were relieved of their closing duties last season so that's like tainted meat. Still, the sad fact that the market is so shallow also means so few teams are looking.
Maybe a team of the rise could be interested. Both Houston and the Cubs have a large cache of prospect talent, but neither seems like they are ready to make the jump and land a final piece to the puzzle like Kimbrel.
So, don't trade Kimbrel? Is that what you are saying?
No, not exactly. If there is an unlikely deal with a couple of big time prospects out there, take it. It's probably not there and Atlanta can't give away a commodity like Kimbrel. Maybe a team overreacts to an injury or ineffective play of their closer this season and is willing to pony up to the Braves' demands. If it's there, make it happen. Closers are a luxury and they definitely make things all tidy and defined in the pen, but are they needed? Well, the Giants won the World Series without their closer picking up the all important save in any game of the series...so, there's that.
I started this post with the idea that I would be convinced that trading Kimbrel was the sensible and smart thing to do. My mindset is simple. Closers are overrated and overpaid. That's my personal feeling and the market, nor the game of baseball, agrees with me. In Out of the Park, my theory checks out. I traded Kimbrel to save money and replaced him with a three-headed monster - a closer-by-committee - and it worked out the way I wanted. Three pitchers got around 15 or so saves and three others picked up about 3-5 of them. Kimbrel had a great year with Houston, the team I sent him to, and the prospects I acquired gave my system a shot in the arm. It worked out perfectly there.
But in real life, trading a closer is much more difficult and getting the return you desire is tricky. Kimbrel is a special case, just like he was in the build up to an arbitration hearing that ultimately did not happen. Trading him - while the move I would do in my head - is probably not the smart play unless a team gets desperate. Really desperate. Like day before the Prom desperate. And unfortunately, the right guy to make that trade is not only in Philly, but has little to offer.
So, it is understandable that Craig Kimbrel was labelled untouchable and safe from being moved, according to WSB's Zach Klein in mid-November. Since becoming the Braves' closer four years ago, Kimbrel has saved 185 games, nearly 50 more than the next best total. Among relievers, he's K'd 436, or 25 more than the next pitcher on the list. His 1.51 ERA tops the list, slightly ahead of our old pal Eric O'Flaherty and only one pitcher tops Kimbrel's 0.88 WHIP. All the while, he has been incredibly durable, throwing the 8th most innings out of the pen in the 11th most games.
Last winter, Kimbrel was one of the players handed long-term extensions during Frank Wren's final offseason with the Braves. He earned $7M last year as part of the deal and is owed $9M in 2015, $11M in 2016, and $13M in 2017. In 2018, there exists a club option that would pay Kimbrel an additional $13M with a $1M buyout in case the option wasn't exercised. So, on the light end, Kimbrel is owed $34M over the next three seasons.
That's $34M the Braves would paying a guy to close games for a team that might not be competitive.
Pretty clear where I'm headed, right? Strike now and deal away Kimbrel if someone is willing. Don't give him away, but if there is a deal out there with a good return, take it.
Uh, you just said he's the best at this position. Shouldn't we want the best?
Most of the time, absolutely. You want the best center fielder (gotta work on that). You want the best starter (or second best since Kershaw is kinda locked up). You even want the best closer, but only if your team can optimize his talent. Closing the game is an often overrated "skill," but it pays handsomely and teams often are thoroughly concerned about what will happen if they are competitors that lack a shutdown guy. For a team rebuilding, though, a closer is not a necessity, but a luxury. The Phillies, for instance, are paying a considerable sum for Jonathan Papelbon. While an ass, he has been pretty good at his job. However, since joining Philly, his teams have won 81 games and 73 twice. Yet, in that time, he has been paid $37,000,058 and will get another $13M next year for a team largely considered to be, at best, a threat to finish .500.
Seems like a waste to me. That's $13M that Ruben Amaro Jr. could have sunk into someone who's older than 34.
Let me be clear. Kimbrel's not overpaid and the Braves won't be able to replace his talent. I think I pointed out how good those talents are. Let me add that I don't even know a team that it would make sense to deal Kimbrel to right now. The Yankees could use him, but would the Braves get the haul they must get in prospects from them? I doubt that. I don't want this to sound like a plea to trade Kimbrel asap. I'd rather keep him if there's no high-end package of talent coming Atlanta's way.
Also, it's worth noting that trading closers doesn't often bring back all that much. Last season, all the White Sox received for Addison Reed was Matt Davidson. Now, Davidson was a top-100 prospect before falling on his face last year, but Reed had four years of team control and was coming off a 40 save season. One B+ prospect for a pretty good closer who was 14th in fWAR among relievers that season? Back in the 2007-08 offseason, the Astros got a trio of players, led by Michael Bourn, for one year of control for Brad Lidge, but that example is a bit outdated and Bourn was the only piece that eventually became productive out of the trade.
If not now, maybe things could open up during the season. The Rangers picked up a pair of former high draft choices in pitchers Jake Thompson and Corey Knebel last July. Thompson is a starter with intriguing strikeout rates while Knebel is a reliever with incredible ratios, but neither jumped off the page as significant prospects. At the deadline in 2010, the Nationals picked up pitcher Joe Testa and a catcher for Matt Capps. Testa washed out, but the catcher, Wilson Ramos, would develop into a talented, if not often-injured, starter behind the plate. He was also a solid B to B+ prospect at the time of the trade.
A three-team deal with a flurry of moving parts might bring more Atlanta's way, though Atlanta would probably be moving more than just Kimbrel. Of course, the Braves could choose to go beyond a swap of Kimbrel and prospects and package another piece or two with Kimbrel. That's always a possibility especially if it helps the Braves acquire marquee talent.
Clearly, if Atlanta trades Kimbrel, there must be a high price tag that someone has met because other trades involving closers didn't bring in a return I think many fans, including myself, feel a player of Kimbrel's abilities deserve. You would think that once David Robertson, the best closer on the market, signs with a team this winter, teams would be desperate with only one other "closer" available in the form of Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod was good for the Brewers last year, but I don't think anyone's knocking each other over to attain his services. Sergio Romo and Rafael Soriano both were relieved of their closing duties last season so that's like tainted meat. Still, the sad fact that the market is so shallow also means so few teams are looking.
Maybe a team of the rise could be interested. Both Houston and the Cubs have a large cache of prospect talent, but neither seems like they are ready to make the jump and land a final piece to the puzzle like Kimbrel.
So, don't trade Kimbrel? Is that what you are saying?
No, not exactly. If there is an unlikely deal with a couple of big time prospects out there, take it. It's probably not there and Atlanta can't give away a commodity like Kimbrel. Maybe a team overreacts to an injury or ineffective play of their closer this season and is willing to pony up to the Braves' demands. If it's there, make it happen. Closers are a luxury and they definitely make things all tidy and defined in the pen, but are they needed? Well, the Giants won the World Series without their closer picking up the all important save in any game of the series...so, there's that.
I started this post with the idea that I would be convinced that trading Kimbrel was the sensible and smart thing to do. My mindset is simple. Closers are overrated and overpaid. That's my personal feeling and the market, nor the game of baseball, agrees with me. In Out of the Park, my theory checks out. I traded Kimbrel to save money and replaced him with a three-headed monster - a closer-by-committee - and it worked out the way I wanted. Three pitchers got around 15 or so saves and three others picked up about 3-5 of them. Kimbrel had a great year with Houston, the team I sent him to, and the prospects I acquired gave my system a shot in the arm. It worked out perfectly there.
But in real life, trading a closer is much more difficult and getting the return you desire is tricky. Kimbrel is a special case, just like he was in the build up to an arbitration hearing that ultimately did not happen. Trading him - while the move I would do in my head - is probably not the smart play unless a team gets desperate. Really desperate. Like day before the Prom desperate. And unfortunately, the right guy to make that trade is not only in Philly, but has little to offer.
Monday, December 1, 2014
Corbin Joseph: Stop-Gap Option?
For previous recaps on minor league signings, you can look at posts from November 12th, 18th, and 23rd.
Sometimes, a guy basically flies under the radar. The signing of Corban Joseph wasn't on the transactions page the Braves provide a few days ago, but someone must have updated it since then (along with added a couple of international guys I know nothing about).
So, what do we know about Joseph? According to Carson Castulli of Fangraphs, the Braves are essentially signing Tommy La Stella in the form of Joseph. Is that fair?
The link provided looks into their projections, but let's compare some selected minor league numbers.
It should be noted that Joseph played longer in the minors (7 seasons) than La Stella (4 seasons) and was drafted out of high school whereas La Stella was chosen out of Coastal Carolina University. La Stella's numbers are noticeably better in the minors in one category I left off. TLS hit .322 in the minors where Joseph hit .278.
La Stella has 360 PA in the majors, all last year. Joseph has seven and those came in 2013. TLS brought back a young reliever who many still believe will become a high profile arm for a bullpen, plus international slot money. Joseph was cut at the end of August and just now found work.
So, why the comparison? Well, it comes down to the projections, as the article speaks of. Joseph is expected to provide a similar WAR to La Stella. He'll walk less and strike out more, but will also hit for more pop and provide slightly better defense, a problem for TLS. Also, one of the biggest issues with La Stella was that he was limited and hadn't moved off second base to increase his versatility. Joseph has mostly played second, but also moved to third, first, and even played a game in left field last season. That could go a long way toward keeping him in the majors.
I wouldn't go so far as call Joseph "basically TLS" and I think TLS will probably be a better player. However, that doesn't mean Joseph can't be a stop-gap guy who could possibly platoon at second ahead of Jose Peraza's arrival before transitioning into a utility role. I should say chances are good Joseph spends all of 2015 with Gwinnett, but if he does make it to the majors, he's certainly better suited for what the Braves need than TLS, a thoroughly limited player whose only tool, plate discipline, wasn't going to provide nearly enough value.
Sometimes, a guy basically flies under the radar. The signing of Corban Joseph wasn't on the transactions page the Braves provide a few days ago, but someone must have updated it since then (along with added a couple of international guys I know nothing about).
So, what do we know about Joseph? According to Carson Castulli of Fangraphs, the Braves are essentially signing Tommy La Stella in the form of Joseph. Is that fair?
The link provided looks into their projections, but let's compare some selected minor league numbers.
| Player | BB% | K% | ISO | OBP |
| La Stella | 11.3% | 8.5% | .152 | .407 |
| Joseph | 10.8% | 16.1% | .142 | .359 |
It should be noted that Joseph played longer in the minors (7 seasons) than La Stella (4 seasons) and was drafted out of high school whereas La Stella was chosen out of Coastal Carolina University. La Stella's numbers are noticeably better in the minors in one category I left off. TLS hit .322 in the minors where Joseph hit .278.
La Stella has 360 PA in the majors, all last year. Joseph has seven and those came in 2013. TLS brought back a young reliever who many still believe will become a high profile arm for a bullpen, plus international slot money. Joseph was cut at the end of August and just now found work.
So, why the comparison? Well, it comes down to the projections, as the article speaks of. Joseph is expected to provide a similar WAR to La Stella. He'll walk less and strike out more, but will also hit for more pop and provide slightly better defense, a problem for TLS. Also, one of the biggest issues with La Stella was that he was limited and hadn't moved off second base to increase his versatility. Joseph has mostly played second, but also moved to third, first, and even played a game in left field last season. That could go a long way toward keeping him in the majors.
I wouldn't go so far as call Joseph "basically TLS" and I think TLS will probably be a better player. However, that doesn't mean Joseph can't be a stop-gap guy who could possibly platoon at second ahead of Jose Peraza's arrival before transitioning into a utility role. I should say chances are good Joseph spends all of 2015 with Gwinnett, but if he does make it to the majors, he's certainly better suited for what the Braves need than TLS, a thoroughly limited player whose only tool, plate discipline, wasn't going to provide nearly enough value.
Reviewing BA's Top Ten: 1999
Last week, I started this series to look at each of the Baseball America Top 10 Prospects in the Braves system from 1998 to 2012. Why those arbitrary seasons? Because I said so, that's why. Today, we are going to review a list like it's 1999 mainly because that's a the year we will devote our time to. Now, as we progress, in the case of many players, I won't have much to write about because the player already received digital ink in a previous version of this series. If something of interest was missed, I'll try to touch base on it, but that's about it for certain players, including the number one prospect on this list. Like last week, with each name, I will provide, if applicable, that player's ranking in Baseball America's overall Top 100 for that year. I will also mention the other years, if any, the player made the Top Ten and their replacement in those Top Ten's.
1. Bruce Chen, lhp - BA Top 100: 4th - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1997 (3rd), 1998 (1st)
Ranked ahead of Chen in the Baseball America Top 100 - J.D. Drew, Rick Ankiel, and Eric Chavez. With Chavez's retirement, Chen has outlasted all of them.
2. George Lombard, of - BA Top 100: 26th - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1996 (7th), 1997 (4th), 1998 (5th), 2000 (2nd)
Lombard was the 8th outfielder on the Top 100 in 1999.
3. Odalis Perez, lhp - BA Top 100: 31st - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1998 (4th)
Perez would go on to appear in ten games against the Braves after his trade to the Dodgers, including nine starts. His 4.97 ERA against the Braves was his ninth highest against any team and third highest of any team he appeared in at least 50 innings against.
4. Luis Rivera, rhp - BA Top 100: 71st - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1998 (3rd), 2000 (5th)
As I mentioned last week, Rivera was dealt to the Orioles at the trading deadline in 2000 in the B.J. Surhoff trade. While Rivera was the centerpiece for the O's, they also received catcher Fernando Lunar and outfielder Trent Hubbard. Lunar, who had appeared in 22 games with the Braves prior to the trade, would receive extensive play in 2001 for the O's, but despite being a great receiver, he was never a hitter. His career OPS was .532. He briefly returned to the Braves organization in 2007 for six games with Mississippi before retiring. Hubbard was a 36 year-old journeyman who despite ten years in the majors, he only appeared in at least a hundred games with a team once. He kept playing until he was 41. In addition to Surhoff, the Braves received pitcher Gabe Molina in the deal. He appeared in just two games with the Braves. That was enough. His career came to a close after 2005.
5. Jason Marquis, rhp - BA Top 100: 89th - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1997 (6th), 1998 (8th), 2000 (6th), 2001 (5th)
A lot has already been written about Marquis, but don't forget when Marquis first made his mark. The 1991 Little League World Series. The little Staton Island righty tossed a no-hitter against Canada that year.
6. Kevin McGlinchy, rhp - BA Top 100: 47th - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1997 (2nd)
Taken in the fifth round during the 1995 draft, McGlinchy's career sadly gets defined by two things. The Grand Slam Single and the arm injuries that kept McGlinchy from ever delivering on the promise. By 1997, McGlinchy was favored by experts as yet another in a long line of great pitching talents the Braves had produced during the 1990's. Baseball America ranked him as the #39th prospect in the game following a 1996 campaign where he struck out over a batter an inning in 15 starts with a 1.49 ERA. Nowadays, we would say that ranking was unwarranted because McGlinchy did most of the damage in rookie ball. After a down year in 1998, McGlinchy got back into the prospect talk with big year in 1999. The following spring, McGlinchy made a pretty surprising jumpo to the bigs despite just six games above A-ball. Maybe the loss of incumbent closer Kerry Ligtenberg to injury opened the spot for him. McGlinchy quickly gained Bobby Cox's trust as the latter used McGlinchy early-and-often. He rewarded his manager with a 70.1 innings of 2.82 ERA and was even better in the second half.
In the playoffs, McGlinchy got the call of Game Four against the Astros. John Smoltz had ran out of steam in the 8th and gave up a three-run homer. Terry Mulholland entered and retired just one of the three he faced, leaving a runner in scoring position. McGlinchy retired future Brave Daryle Ward as the only batter he faced before giving way to John Rocker, who finished the game and series. McGlinchy wouldn't get used again until 8 days later, this time in Game 5 of the NLCS. Already up 3-1 in the series, McGlinchy had entered in a 2-2 tie in the 14th inning with one out and retired two of the three he faced to get the game into the 15th, where the Braves would pull ahead. With a chance to end the series, McGlinchy faltered, giving up a single, a walk, and an intentional walk to load them with one out before walking in the game-tying run. With the count 2-1 to Robin Ventura, McGlinchy served up a meatball that was lifted the hell out of Shea Stadium. Ventura was mobbed by his teammates before he reached second and the game officially ended with Ventura being credited with a walk-off single. McGlinchy would actually regroup and pitched two scoreless innings in the World Series against the Yankees, but that seems like our last memory of him.
He returned in 2000 and appeared in seven games before hitting the Disabled List. He rehabbed and came back in September for a trio of games before the season closed. Over the next two seasons, he would not appear in any games save two one-inning stints with the 2001 GCL Braves. Atlanta cut bait after 2002 and he would pitch at assorted stops between 2003-05, though most of it was independent league pitching. After 2005, his career was over and he went into coaching. He did try a comeback in semi-pro baseball around Boston in 2011 and was still throwing 90 mph, but it looks like that never led to another trip into organized ball.
7. Rafael Furcal, ss - BA Top 100: 60th - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 2000 (1st)
Coming off a season where he would swipe 60 bases for Danville in 66 games while walking more than he struck, Furcal would take a big step in 1999 when he stole 96 bases. He quietly on-based .392 that season, too. Defensively, his range was massive and he had a strong arm. Even with all that in mind, it was amazing when he jumped from 43 games to finish the 1999 season with Myrtle Beach to join the big league club to open 2000. Even more amazing was that he posted some of his best numbers of his career in his rookie year. His 73 walks that season are tied for his single-season best and his .394 OBP was his highest full-season total by far. After six years and two DUI charges, he left the Braves for the Dodgers. He signed a three year contract with the Dodgers and was solid there, but looked to be on his way to a return to Atlanta when his agent and him spurned the Braves following the 2008 season. A day after he was reportedly headed to Atlanta for $30M over three years, he abruptly changed course to stay with Los Angeles for $3M more. He would go on to win a ring for the 2011 Cardinals and after missing a season due to injury, played briefly for the Marlins last year before injuries ended his year after a week. Be interesting to see if he gets a shot in 2015.
8. Micah Bowie, lhp
An average starter for his first four seasons, Bowie turned it around in 1998, posting a 3.48 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. It turned him not only into a real prospect in what was a loaded system, but a guy many teams were interested in acquiring. Bowie began 1999 with Richmond and continued to show improvement, striking out over a batter an inning and keeping his WHIP around 1.00. That got him to The Show in late July for a three-game cameo before getting moved to the Chicago Cubs in a move that brought SS Jose Hernandez and the previously mentioned Mulholland to Atlanta. Bowie was woeful in 11 starts with the Cubs after the trade, yielding a 9.96 ERA along the way. After a 2000 season spent in the minors, the Cubs cut the lefty and the A's came calling. He was solid enough down the stetch in 2002 and the A's had enough concerns in the pen for Bowie to make their postseason roster despite only pitching in 12 games that year. He even pitched the final inning and a third of Game 4 of the ALDS, a game started and lost by our pal Tim Hudson in a 11-2 decision. Bowie would go to pitch for both the Nationals and Rockies, though neither experience proved successful. His career came to a close after the 2008 season.
9. Wes Helms, 3b - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1997 (5th), 1998 (9th)
Helms attempted a steal 15 times in his career. He was successful just three times. Ouch.
10. Marcus Giles, 2b - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 2000 (3rd), 2001 (3rd)
The baby brother of Brian Giles, Marcus had a monster season in 1998 for Macon, slashing .329/.433/.636 with 37 homers. There's no easy way to look up SALLY records, which is ridiculous, but I do know that Russell Branyan hit 40 in 1996. Giles wouldn't approach such lofty numbers again, but remained super productive leading to a call-up in 2001. He would famously hit an eighth inning Grand Slam on May 15th to lead the Braves to come-from-behind 5-3 win and get demoted two days later. It wasn't until July that he came up to stay. After a down year in 2002, Giles exploded in 2003, hitting 49 doubles and 21 homers while posting a .917 OPS. His numbers remained good after that, but it went down hill real quick leading to one season with the Padres in 2007 where he simply struggled and OPS'd a career-worst .621. After failing to make the Rockies in 2008, his career was over.
1. Bruce Chen, lhp - BA Top 100: 4th - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1997 (3rd), 1998 (1st)
Ranked ahead of Chen in the Baseball America Top 100 - J.D. Drew, Rick Ankiel, and Eric Chavez. With Chavez's retirement, Chen has outlasted all of them.
2. George Lombard, of - BA Top 100: 26th - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1996 (7th), 1997 (4th), 1998 (5th), 2000 (2nd)
Lombard was the 8th outfielder on the Top 100 in 1999.
3. Odalis Perez, lhp - BA Top 100: 31st - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1998 (4th)
Perez would go on to appear in ten games against the Braves after his trade to the Dodgers, including nine starts. His 4.97 ERA against the Braves was his ninth highest against any team and third highest of any team he appeared in at least 50 innings against.
4. Luis Rivera, rhp - BA Top 100: 71st - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1998 (3rd), 2000 (5th)
As I mentioned last week, Rivera was dealt to the Orioles at the trading deadline in 2000 in the B.J. Surhoff trade. While Rivera was the centerpiece for the O's, they also received catcher Fernando Lunar and outfielder Trent Hubbard. Lunar, who had appeared in 22 games with the Braves prior to the trade, would receive extensive play in 2001 for the O's, but despite being a great receiver, he was never a hitter. His career OPS was .532. He briefly returned to the Braves organization in 2007 for six games with Mississippi before retiring. Hubbard was a 36 year-old journeyman who despite ten years in the majors, he only appeared in at least a hundred games with a team once. He kept playing until he was 41. In addition to Surhoff, the Braves received pitcher Gabe Molina in the deal. He appeared in just two games with the Braves. That was enough. His career came to a close after 2005.
5. Jason Marquis, rhp - BA Top 100: 89th - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1997 (6th), 1998 (8th), 2000 (6th), 2001 (5th)
A lot has already been written about Marquis, but don't forget when Marquis first made his mark. The 1991 Little League World Series. The little Staton Island righty tossed a no-hitter against Canada that year.
6. Kevin McGlinchy, rhp - BA Top 100: 47th - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1997 (2nd)
Taken in the fifth round during the 1995 draft, McGlinchy's career sadly gets defined by two things. The Grand Slam Single and the arm injuries that kept McGlinchy from ever delivering on the promise. By 1997, McGlinchy was favored by experts as yet another in a long line of great pitching talents the Braves had produced during the 1990's. Baseball America ranked him as the #39th prospect in the game following a 1996 campaign where he struck out over a batter an inning in 15 starts with a 1.49 ERA. Nowadays, we would say that ranking was unwarranted because McGlinchy did most of the damage in rookie ball. After a down year in 1998, McGlinchy got back into the prospect talk with big year in 1999. The following spring, McGlinchy made a pretty surprising jumpo to the bigs despite just six games above A-ball. Maybe the loss of incumbent closer Kerry Ligtenberg to injury opened the spot for him. McGlinchy quickly gained Bobby Cox's trust as the latter used McGlinchy early-and-often. He rewarded his manager with a 70.1 innings of 2.82 ERA and was even better in the second half.
In the playoffs, McGlinchy got the call of Game Four against the Astros. John Smoltz had ran out of steam in the 8th and gave up a three-run homer. Terry Mulholland entered and retired just one of the three he faced, leaving a runner in scoring position. McGlinchy retired future Brave Daryle Ward as the only batter he faced before giving way to John Rocker, who finished the game and series. McGlinchy wouldn't get used again until 8 days later, this time in Game 5 of the NLCS. Already up 3-1 in the series, McGlinchy had entered in a 2-2 tie in the 14th inning with one out and retired two of the three he faced to get the game into the 15th, where the Braves would pull ahead. With a chance to end the series, McGlinchy faltered, giving up a single, a walk, and an intentional walk to load them with one out before walking in the game-tying run. With the count 2-1 to Robin Ventura, McGlinchy served up a meatball that was lifted the hell out of Shea Stadium. Ventura was mobbed by his teammates before he reached second and the game officially ended with Ventura being credited with a walk-off single. McGlinchy would actually regroup and pitched two scoreless innings in the World Series against the Yankees, but that seems like our last memory of him.
He returned in 2000 and appeared in seven games before hitting the Disabled List. He rehabbed and came back in September for a trio of games before the season closed. Over the next two seasons, he would not appear in any games save two one-inning stints with the 2001 GCL Braves. Atlanta cut bait after 2002 and he would pitch at assorted stops between 2003-05, though most of it was independent league pitching. After 2005, his career was over and he went into coaching. He did try a comeback in semi-pro baseball around Boston in 2011 and was still throwing 90 mph, but it looks like that never led to another trip into organized ball.
7. Rafael Furcal, ss - BA Top 100: 60th - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 2000 (1st)
Coming off a season where he would swipe 60 bases for Danville in 66 games while walking more than he struck, Furcal would take a big step in 1999 when he stole 96 bases. He quietly on-based .392 that season, too. Defensively, his range was massive and he had a strong arm. Even with all that in mind, it was amazing when he jumped from 43 games to finish the 1999 season with Myrtle Beach to join the big league club to open 2000. Even more amazing was that he posted some of his best numbers of his career in his rookie year. His 73 walks that season are tied for his single-season best and his .394 OBP was his highest full-season total by far. After six years and two DUI charges, he left the Braves for the Dodgers. He signed a three year contract with the Dodgers and was solid there, but looked to be on his way to a return to Atlanta when his agent and him spurned the Braves following the 2008 season. A day after he was reportedly headed to Atlanta for $30M over three years, he abruptly changed course to stay with Los Angeles for $3M more. He would go on to win a ring for the 2011 Cardinals and after missing a season due to injury, played briefly for the Marlins last year before injuries ended his year after a week. Be interesting to see if he gets a shot in 2015.
8. Micah Bowie, lhp
An average starter for his first four seasons, Bowie turned it around in 1998, posting a 3.48 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. It turned him not only into a real prospect in what was a loaded system, but a guy many teams were interested in acquiring. Bowie began 1999 with Richmond and continued to show improvement, striking out over a batter an inning and keeping his WHIP around 1.00. That got him to The Show in late July for a three-game cameo before getting moved to the Chicago Cubs in a move that brought SS Jose Hernandez and the previously mentioned Mulholland to Atlanta. Bowie was woeful in 11 starts with the Cubs after the trade, yielding a 9.96 ERA along the way. After a 2000 season spent in the minors, the Cubs cut the lefty and the A's came calling. He was solid enough down the stetch in 2002 and the A's had enough concerns in the pen for Bowie to make their postseason roster despite only pitching in 12 games that year. He even pitched the final inning and a third of Game 4 of the ALDS, a game started and lost by our pal Tim Hudson in a 11-2 decision. Bowie would go to pitch for both the Nationals and Rockies, though neither experience proved successful. His career came to a close after the 2008 season.
9. Wes Helms, 3b - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1997 (5th), 1998 (9th)
Helms attempted a steal 15 times in his career. He was successful just three times. Ouch.
10. Marcus Giles, 2b - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 2000 (3rd), 2001 (3rd)
The baby brother of Brian Giles, Marcus had a monster season in 1998 for Macon, slashing .329/.433/.636 with 37 homers. There's no easy way to look up SALLY records, which is ridiculous, but I do know that Russell Branyan hit 40 in 1996. Giles wouldn't approach such lofty numbers again, but remained super productive leading to a call-up in 2001. He would famously hit an eighth inning Grand Slam on May 15th to lead the Braves to come-from-behind 5-3 win and get demoted two days later. It wasn't until July that he came up to stay. After a down year in 2002, Giles exploded in 2003, hitting 49 doubles and 21 homers while posting a .917 OPS. His numbers remained good after that, but it went down hill real quick leading to one season with the Padres in 2007 where he simply struggled and OPS'd a career-worst .621. After failing to make the Rockies in 2008, his career was over.
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