(Previous information about this list can be found here.)
Favorite Braves List (so far)
CA - Brian McCann
1B - Fred McGriff
To keep this list from dragging on from position-to-position, from now on, there will be a pitcher added to the team followed by a position player. And unlike position players, there are no honorable mentions for most of the pitchers. After all, while they may not be the ace of the starting staff, they could still make the team elsewhere. Adam LaRoche has only one shot to make the team.
Favorite Braves List - Ace
Greg Maddux
There are so few players that are more fun to use when playing the game "Fun With Numbers" than Greg Maddux. For instance, Maddux recorded 546 putouts as a pitcher. That's the best in history, but what is far more amazing than just being the best is the difference between first and second place (Kevin Brown in this instance). Brown recorded 158 fewer putouts. Jaime Moyer is considered the active leader at 279 and Moyer has pitched for 72 years. Tim Hudson is second on the active list with 226, or 65th all-time.
I mean, in the sheer volume of amazing statistics that Maddux amassed in his illustrious career, putouts as a pitcher is hardly the most exciting, but it's still fun. For me. But, I am a dork.
While Tom Glavine was the franchise's pick and John Smoltz left everything on the field, Maddux took the ball every fifth day (33-36 starts in every non-strike-shortened season) and performed often at heights few in this game have ever reached. As a Brave, he took home fis final three Cy Youngs of his four straight award-winning seasons. Twice, Maddux finished in the top five in MVP voting. He did so without the aid of a mid-90's fastball, the world's best changeup, an unhittable splitter, or even an Eephus pitch. Instead, Maddux employed sound mechanics, fearless resolve, and out-thought even the most astute hitters. Well, aside from Tony Gwynn.
When people like to cite win-loss records for pitchers, I tend to think of Maddux. From 1992 to 1998, Maddux finished with a FIP of 2.85 or lower. He finished 1996 with a 15-11 record, but a 2.73 FIP. That same team helped John Smoltz to his Cy Young-award winning season of 24 victories and finished fourth in runs scored for the season. However, I guess it hurts that in 16 of his 35 starts, Atlanta scored three or less runs. Maddux even lost two of his five complete game efforts.
The even crazier thing is Javy Lopez caught 17 more innings than Eddie Perez for him that year. Win-loss records are fucking stupid.
Mad Dog played for three other teams, but pitched over 500 innings more with the Braves than he did with the Cubs and had his best years with Atlanta as part of the Big Three. Probably the biggest free agent acquisition of the franchise's history (yes, that includes some lady named Ruth), Maddux arrived in 1993 and simply posted the third best WAR of his career. His two best seasons had yet to be played.
A strike-shortened 1994 robbed Maddux of seeing where his 1.559 ERA would ultimately rank over a full season, but since the dead-ball era, only Bob Gibson (1.123 in 1968) and Dwight Gooden (1.529 in 1985) have posted better ERAs than Maddux did in 1994.
Since 1994, the closest anyone has come to Maddux is...well, Gregory Alan Maddux in 1995 with a 1.631 ERA. Maddux posted his first of two 8 WAR seasons with an even 8.0 WAR while posting a 0.99 BB/9. That's asinine. It would be even more astounding if Maddux didn't better that number two years later. His 0.81 WHIP in 1995 was sixth all time. Better than Christy Mathewson ever did. Better than Bob Gibson, Sandy Koufax, Cy Young, Mordecai Brown, Randy Johnson, Roger Clemens, and even better than Old Hoss Radbourn. Thank God I could reference that name! When Maddux completed his 1995 season, that WHIP actually stood fifth all-time, but Pedro Martinez's historically awesome 2000 season was better and pushed him down a notch. In fact, Martinez owns the single season record in WHIP with 0.74.
After his absolutely crappy 1996 season with just a measly 15-11 record (and 7.8 WAR), Maddux posted his single-season best of 8.2 WAR in 1997. Included was a ridiculous walk rate of 0.77 BB/9. To put that in terms of holy shit, Maddux walked 20 batters in 232.2 innings pitched. Oh, and six were intentional.
After a 7.6 WAR follow-up season in 1998, his production level tapered off a little to merely damn good. For the first time since 1988-1991, he posted four consecutive seasons with a FIP over three (the nerve) and the Braves, with the added pressure of financial troubles, decided to let Maddux go after a 36-start 2003 season in which Maddux turned 37. He returned to Chicago and for five seasons, continued to take the ball whenever asked and at 42, while admittedly pitching in some friendly parks in Los Angeles and San Diego, Maddux turned in a 4.09 FIP and a 1.21 WHIP. You have to be insanely good in your career to end your career with that much of a "down season." From 1988 to 2008, his final season, his innings pitch LOW was 194 innings.
But Livan Hernandez is durable. Maddux was extraordinary at his best and above average at his worst. While a Brave, he was simply awesome. In 363 starts, a shade over 2500 innings, and nearly 200 victories, Maddux put up a 2.63 ERA. Only the dead-ball pitchers in franchise history were ahead of him when he left the Braves. His WHIP as a Brave? 1.05...franchise best for anyone over a thousand innings.
And I don't want to hear a thing about how he was small come October. First, I hate the sample size issues with the playoffs, but regardless, he did post a 3.27 ERA in almost 200 innings in the playoffs, the lion-share coming with the Braves. He recorded some notable stinkers along the way, but competition is pretty stiff in the playoffs. To put it simply, the Braves have only one World Championship to show for their Streak, but the fault isn't on Maddux.
To sum up, the Professor was an easy choice to be the ace of this four man rotation that will lead the Walk-Off Walk Braves.
Monday, July 16, 2012
Sunday, July 15, 2012
Ben Sheets: First Impressions
I left the house at 1:30 this afternoon for some father/daughter time, though the off-and-on rain put a damper on that. Still, after some fun, we got back around 5:00 in time to send the wife to work and get dinner ready for the munchkin before bed time. Then...it was to the TV and lovely DVR recording of the Mets/Braves.
Ben Sheets was superb and that goes beyond just the numbers, which were excellent at 6 innings, 2 hits (including a double), a walk, and five strikeouts. He threw 88 pitches and 57 went for strikes and with the highly inconsistent C.B. Bucknor behind the plate, that is an insanely notable accomplishment. Probably was (and should have been) on a pitch limit so six efficient innings and a win to his record (and my J.V. fantasy team).
His curve was working for most of the game, but was especially good early. Ruben Tejada K'd on one to open things, Daniel Murphy flew out to Michael Bourn on another, and another ended the first when Ike Davis essentially flipped the bat after it to fly out to Jason Heyward. He did fall in love with it a bit much in his one "bad" inning in the third. Against Murphy, he used a pair of curves to help get a strike two and had Murphy guessing curve again, but Sheets went with his fastball and Murphy purposely fouled it away without much of a stride. Instead of doubling up on the fastball with Murphy sitting curve, Sheets threw another breaking ball and it was a hanger. Murphy drilled it to left-center and only the slowness of Jose Thole kept a run from scoring. Sheets navigated the potential disaster by retiring David Wright and didn't allow another runner to reach.
Sheets' fastball was sitting around 91 mph, though he did get it up to 93 mph from what I saw. What was more key that velocity was that he kept it low and generally on the corners. He hit Brian McCann's glove with regularity. He didn't go up in the zone with it very much, though he did get a K against Wright to end the sixth that way.
Early on, he struggled with his cutter as it had a little too much movement to it and righties easily laid off of it. Later in the game, he was able to effectively utilize it and when Sheets has all three pitches working like that, there is not a lot a hitter can do. It's difficult to tell the difference in velocity between his cutter and his changeup so maybe more of his cutters were actually changeups because I don't recall many of them. That said, they tended to still have a good deal of bite to them, but were closer to the zone to allow hitters to offer at them.
Overall, you love when a pitcher exits a game and your sole complaint is that he should have gotten a bunt down. Damn good performance. Now, hopefully the sequel isn't a letdown.
Ben Sheets was superb and that goes beyond just the numbers, which were excellent at 6 innings, 2 hits (including a double), a walk, and five strikeouts. He threw 88 pitches and 57 went for strikes and with the highly inconsistent C.B. Bucknor behind the plate, that is an insanely notable accomplishment. Probably was (and should have been) on a pitch limit so six efficient innings and a win to his record (and my J.V. fantasy team).
His curve was working for most of the game, but was especially good early. Ruben Tejada K'd on one to open things, Daniel Murphy flew out to Michael Bourn on another, and another ended the first when Ike Davis essentially flipped the bat after it to fly out to Jason Heyward. He did fall in love with it a bit much in his one "bad" inning in the third. Against Murphy, he used a pair of curves to help get a strike two and had Murphy guessing curve again, but Sheets went with his fastball and Murphy purposely fouled it away without much of a stride. Instead of doubling up on the fastball with Murphy sitting curve, Sheets threw another breaking ball and it was a hanger. Murphy drilled it to left-center and only the slowness of Jose Thole kept a run from scoring. Sheets navigated the potential disaster by retiring David Wright and didn't allow another runner to reach.
Sheets' fastball was sitting around 91 mph, though he did get it up to 93 mph from what I saw. What was more key that velocity was that he kept it low and generally on the corners. He hit Brian McCann's glove with regularity. He didn't go up in the zone with it very much, though he did get a K against Wright to end the sixth that way.
Early on, he struggled with his cutter as it had a little too much movement to it and righties easily laid off of it. Later in the game, he was able to effectively utilize it and when Sheets has all three pitches working like that, there is not a lot a hitter can do. It's difficult to tell the difference in velocity between his cutter and his changeup so maybe more of his cutters were actually changeups because I don't recall many of them. That said, they tended to still have a good deal of bite to them, but were closer to the zone to allow hitters to offer at them.
Overall, you love when a pitcher exits a game and your sole complaint is that he should have gotten a bunt down. Damn good performance. Now, hopefully the sequel isn't a letdown.
Mike Minor Over Randall Delgado? RLY?
Updated: 10:30 PM, 7/15 - Dr. Brave at Chopnation brought something
to my attention that I forgot in my haste to complain about this move.
Demoting Mike Minor would likely exhaust his options and force the
Braves (and any team they possibly trade him to) into a tough decision
if Minor plays himself into a demotion at a later date. When you look
at it that way and with Randall Delgado not exactly setting the world on
fire, I am tempted to completely withdraw my objection to the decision.
According to something that goes by the name Vivlamore, the Braves have decided to demote Randall Delgado for Ben Sheets. I get the idea. Delgado gets a start Monday at Gwinnett and gets brought back up on Saturday for the double header in D.C. That's cool.
What "progress" is being made by Mike Minor? He looked decent against the Cubs on the fifth, but it is the Cubs after all and they lost their offense in the ivy (along with Andre Dawson, apparently). Minor gave up three hits, walked three, and K'd six over six innings. Three runs scored and one homer was surrendered. The game snapped a streak of three straight with four or more runs given up. After beginning the year with three solid starts, Minor has three quality starts in 13 games. Four pitchers have a worse FIP. He's tied with one of those guys in HR/9 and it's not like Minor really plays in a homerific park.
And sadly, Gonzalez thinks he's showing improvement. It is true that he has not allowed homers at a head-spinning rate like he did when he gave up eleven in five starts (he's been touched up for seven in seven starts since), but just because not as many balls have left the reservation doesn't mean he's pitching at all well. Has he been unlucky? Sure. Probably. Maybe. But progress? Apparently, Gonzalez thinks "progress" means something else.
Not to say Delgado has been awesome by any means because he hasn't, but he's been noticeably better than Minor. Of the current rotation, only Tim Hudson has outperformed Delgado's 4.21 FIP and 4.17 xFIP. Delgado's walks have been an issue, but in an ACTUAL example of progress, Delgado has issued five walks over his last four starts (19.1 ING), an improvement if only because he issued six in the game preceding the previous four. Still considering he's walked three or more in nine of his 16 starts, to have a run of four starts without running into considerable control issues is progress.
A part of me believes the difference isn't severe between the two, but regardless, shouldn't you want the better starter on the mound? Another part of me believes Minor is the guy they are trying to sell to Milwaukee in any potential Zack Greinke deal. Still another part of me thinks Gonzalez flipped a coin and built a BS story to justify the Gods' choice.
By the way...with an off day Monday, why start Minor on Wednesday? Jair Jurrjens could go Tuesday and back to the rest of the staff on regular rest (Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Sheets) to set up Minor/Delgado for the double header.
But I forgot to consult my Book of Random Decisions.
According to something that goes by the name Vivlamore, the Braves have decided to demote Randall Delgado for Ben Sheets. I get the idea. Delgado gets a start Monday at Gwinnett and gets brought back up on Saturday for the double header in D.C. That's cool.
The move means left-hander Mike Minor will keep his spot in the rotation and will likely pitch Wednesday against the Giants. The Braves had to choose between Minor and Delgado to make room for Sheets as both youngsters have struggled this season.
“It was a tough decision between him and Minor,” Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said. “The last couple starts with Minor we felt there was some progress being made.”Wait...what? First off...why would you need to throw out Minor on Wednesday? Ya know, I'll get back to that.
What "progress" is being made by Mike Minor? He looked decent against the Cubs on the fifth, but it is the Cubs after all and they lost their offense in the ivy (along with Andre Dawson, apparently). Minor gave up three hits, walked three, and K'd six over six innings. Three runs scored and one homer was surrendered. The game snapped a streak of three straight with four or more runs given up. After beginning the year with three solid starts, Minor has three quality starts in 13 games. Four pitchers have a worse FIP. He's tied with one of those guys in HR/9 and it's not like Minor really plays in a homerific park.
And sadly, Gonzalez thinks he's showing improvement. It is true that he has not allowed homers at a head-spinning rate like he did when he gave up eleven in five starts (he's been touched up for seven in seven starts since), but just because not as many balls have left the reservation doesn't mean he's pitching at all well. Has he been unlucky? Sure. Probably. Maybe. But progress? Apparently, Gonzalez thinks "progress" means something else.
Not to say Delgado has been awesome by any means because he hasn't, but he's been noticeably better than Minor. Of the current rotation, only Tim Hudson has outperformed Delgado's 4.21 FIP and 4.17 xFIP. Delgado's walks have been an issue, but in an ACTUAL example of progress, Delgado has issued five walks over his last four starts (19.1 ING), an improvement if only because he issued six in the game preceding the previous four. Still considering he's walked three or more in nine of his 16 starts, to have a run of four starts without running into considerable control issues is progress.
A part of me believes the difference isn't severe between the two, but regardless, shouldn't you want the better starter on the mound? Another part of me believes Minor is the guy they are trying to sell to Milwaukee in any potential Zack Greinke deal. Still another part of me thinks Gonzalez flipped a coin and built a BS story to justify the Gods' choice.
By the way...with an off day Monday, why start Minor on Wednesday? Jair Jurrjens could go Tuesday and back to the rest of the staff on regular rest (Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Sheets) to set up Minor/Delgado for the double header.
But I forgot to consult my Book of Random Decisions.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
Howdy Paul Janish!
With Andrelton Simmons hurt and Jack Wilson suffering from severe sucktitude (plus his finger hurts real bad), Atlanta send Todd Redmond (he of 101 games with Gwinnett, 0 with Atlanta) to the Cincinnati Red Legs for Paul Janish. First, a moment of remembrance for Redmond. Acquired in spring training of 2008 for Tyler Yates, Redmond was the Southern League Pitcher of the Year that year and has spent the last 3.5 years with Gwinnett like a modern day Brad Woodall.
Janish is 29 years-old and has been around since 2004 when he was a fifth round selection from Rice University. He made it to AAA in his third full season, the majors the following year in 2008 for 38 games. After a terrible .601 OPS in 90 games in the bigs during 2009, Janish showed some worth in 2010 with a .260 average to go with his .723 OPS while playing in 82 games. However, he regressed to .214 last year and has spent this year with Louisville, the Reds' AAA team.
With Janish, you aren't expecting much in terms of offense. When a .723 OPS is a high-performance season, your expectations must be muted and true to form, he was hitting .237 for L'ville this year. However, what you do expect is defense and Janish has been able to provide that. While he has appeared on occasion at second and third in the bigs, the bulk of his time has come at shortstop where he has strong metrics. He won't outperform Simmons in the field, but he's much better than Wilson is at this point in Wilson's career.
He doesn't have much experience as a utility player and has typically stuck at short, but has 21 MLB games at third and twelve at second base. He even got on the mound for a couple of games in 2009 during blowouts.
Janish is a fix to the situation, though I don't think it means Frank Wren has to stop looking for better players. The injury to Wilson forced a move. Now, the Braves don't have to overspend on a player just to make a move. The price tag for a guy like Marco Scutaro was probably too high so Wren's hoping it will come down before the deadline. If the price tag for a bench player remains too high, the Braves at least have something for the short term.
That said...still hoping the Braves can find a bat for the middle infield.
Janish is 29 years-old and has been around since 2004 when he was a fifth round selection from Rice University. He made it to AAA in his third full season, the majors the following year in 2008 for 38 games. After a terrible .601 OPS in 90 games in the bigs during 2009, Janish showed some worth in 2010 with a .260 average to go with his .723 OPS while playing in 82 games. However, he regressed to .214 last year and has spent this year with Louisville, the Reds' AAA team.
With Janish, you aren't expecting much in terms of offense. When a .723 OPS is a high-performance season, your expectations must be muted and true to form, he was hitting .237 for L'ville this year. However, what you do expect is defense and Janish has been able to provide that. While he has appeared on occasion at second and third in the bigs, the bulk of his time has come at shortstop where he has strong metrics. He won't outperform Simmons in the field, but he's much better than Wilson is at this point in Wilson's career.
He doesn't have much experience as a utility player and has typically stuck at short, but has 21 MLB games at third and twelve at second base. He even got on the mound for a couple of games in 2009 during blowouts.
Janish is a fix to the situation, though I don't think it means Frank Wren has to stop looking for better players. The injury to Wilson forced a move. Now, the Braves don't have to overspend on a player just to make a move. The price tag for a guy like Marco Scutaro was probably too high so Wren's hoping it will come down before the deadline. If the price tag for a bench player remains too high, the Braves at least have something for the short term.
That said...still hoping the Braves can find a bat for the middle infield.
I Know! We Need Gamers!
I admit that it's not fair for me to be critical of other bloggers. This thing we do is really not as easy as we want to believe it is. Sure, you think it's going to be easy. "Oh, I'll start a blog. I'm important. It'll be easy!" However, you find yourself trying to find subjects to write about or wondering if anyone cares or wondering if you even care.
But when someone writes nonsensical stuff like "Braves need more gamers to compete at highest level," you can't avoid the desire to go over it like a bad episode of Mystery Science Theatre 3000.
Listen, being aggressive is awesome, but you also need to try to be safe.
Right now, a healthy shortstop. But really...Simmons' speed? Rafael Furcal (2000-05), Edgar Renteria (2006-07), and Yunel Escobar (2007-10) must have been a lot slower than I remembered or their stats have informed me of. No, I do get it that Simmons defense has been extraordinary and by no means am I saying that he's not a better defender than that trio, but Simmons, while fast, is definitely no more faster than Furcal. Renty swiped 28 bases in his two years here. As for the Braves playing small ball...I'm told by every traditionalist I come into contact with that the Braves need to play more small ball. By the way..."small ball"...another vague, non-nonsensical term to go with "gamer." Finally, "Simmons also brought a sense of the game"...really?
Matt Diaz probably has more energy than anyone else on the team. He hustles, tries hard, does everything he can. He's still dragging the team down. Energy never replaces talent. Tyler Pastornicky didn't suck because he wasn't excited about being in the bigs or coming to the park with fresh-faced energy. He sucked because he's not a particularly gifted player. This isn't basketball where a high energy can seems to really change the game. There are no Anderson Varejao's in baseball. There is simply a gap between talent and untalented, performing and nonperforming, coaching and Fredi Gonzalez. The Braves don't win because they "out-energied" the competition.
Gamers are a fun cliche, but the fact is the Braves need more than cliches. They need a starter capable of posting a solid K/9 rate and good WHIP. They need a shortstop capable of walking upright. They need bench players who get on-base. Jack Wilson doesn't suck because he doesn't gamer-it-up enough. He sucks because he sucks. I know he tries hard. He's a professional! Nonperforming players typically last even shorter if they don't have energy and don't try hard. They made it to the major fucking leagues. 750 people on a given day accomplish such a feat. But when you get to the bigs, things change. Either you can hit a curve or you can't. Either you can throw your fastball for quality strikes or you can't. No amount of energy makes up for a lack of range. You aren't a gamer if you take the extra base...you're simply doing your job.
You know who was a gamer? Brooks Conrad. Dude gave everything he had and still couldn't field a ball in the 2010 playoffs. But being a gamer ultimately doesn't beat anyone.
But seriously, Fredi sucks.
But when someone writes nonsensical stuff like "Braves need more gamers to compete at highest level," you can't avoid the desire to go over it like a bad episode of Mystery Science Theatre 3000.
For those who don’t know, Simmons broke his pinky by sliding into second base on a single that he stretched out when the center fielder lollygagged his throw back to the infield. Now, many people would probably criticize his aggressiveness, particularly his headfirst slide, which Braves fans know the dangers of. After the game, manager Fredi Gonzalez said he had been pushing his players to play with that level of competitiveness and he couldn’t really fault Simmons for pushing the play.No, Fredi can't really fault Simmons for pushing the play, but it wasn't his aggressiveness that got him in trouble either. It was the head-first slide into second base. See, if he slides cleats-first, there does remain a chance that Simmons gets hurt, but there is also a chance that he spikes Utley (who had his leg down blocking the bag) and sends a message that you better watch out. And while sliding face-first might present more along the line of impromptu moves during the slide to better the chances of being safe, there is just too many risks to go with your face-first slide that it should be argued against.
Listen, being aggressive is awesome, but you also need to try to be safe.
I see both sides, certainly. On one hand, you want your players to play safe ball and stay healthy throughout the season. On the other hand, a team can find a lot of success by pushing the pace and the energy of the game.
Enter the “gamer.”Ah, yes, the "gamer." I admit that these quasi-romantic terms do nothing for me. Like obscenity, the user of the term seems to know it when he sees it. People who love these terms love them because they bring a sort of unforeseen force to the game, making it more of a religion. When asked what exactly they may, they tend to focus on vague descriptions. He works hard. He sees the ball well. He's clutch. He just always seems to be in the right place. Seriously, this shit annoys me because it doesn't respect the work ethic and effort that typically allows for the "gamer" to shine.
Braves fans have been wowed by Simmons on many levels. His speed is an obvious improvement to the team, an asset the Braves haven’t seen a lot of in the past. They play more small ball than they’ve relied on power, but speed has come at a premium. But Simmons also brought a sense of the game that not every player has, as well as an arm like a cannon and a fairly reliable bat. What more could you ask for?
Right now, a healthy shortstop. But really...Simmons' speed? Rafael Furcal (2000-05), Edgar Renteria (2006-07), and Yunel Escobar (2007-10) must have been a lot slower than I remembered or their stats have informed me of. No, I do get it that Simmons defense has been extraordinary and by no means am I saying that he's not a better defender than that trio, but Simmons, while fast, is definitely no more faster than Furcal. Renty swiped 28 bases in his two years here. As for the Braves playing small ball...I'm told by every traditionalist I come into contact with that the Braves need to play more small ball. By the way..."small ball"...another vague, non-nonsensical term to go with "gamer." Finally, "Simmons also brought a sense of the game"...really?
Let’s go back to his “baseball sense” for a moment. This is an instinct for the game that isn’t easily taught. Brian McCann has often been picked out for his natural talent for the game and was let off the leash early as a catcher, meaning he was calling pitches and plays because he had the head for it. Chipper Jones has that sense, which is supported by his numbers at the plate. I think Jason Heyward has that sense, but has kept it somewhat under wraps for the start of his career.Instincts by definition are not taught. I think you are confusing "instincts" with skills. When combined, skills can really take off. McCann's knowledge of the game comes from years of watching baseball and as he has perfected the art, he has become better at using video and scouting reports. That's not so much natural as it is a learned art. While obviously, catchers tend to have a "head" for the game, they often get there because they have to be a sponge and take in a wealth of knowledge on hitters, tendencies, who's hot/not?, defensive alignment, calling pitches to fit that alignment, pitcher's abilities, baserunner's abilities, and so on and so on. Why belittle that by saying McCann has a "sense" for it? Dude works his ass off. If he had a "sense" for it, his footwork wouldn't be so bad. Chipper is even a bigger example of this. Chipper is known and respected for his knowledge and his ability to seemingly access memory at will. That was instilled in him at an early age with Larry Sr. and has continued for 20-plus years as a professional in this game. It's not a sense, but a concerted effort to be the best.
When I say that, I mean that when Heyward came on the scene, no one could say enough about the potential he had as a ballplayer. His bat and speed were the high points; he was projected to bring new power to the Braves and be a strong outfielder. But his first year, while good and somewhat eye-opening, wasn’t what I expected from all the talk. I certainly didn’t expect his second year to be such a letdown. Sure, it was shadowed by some injuries (headfirst slide!), but his bat all but died and people began to wonder if they hadn’t been premature in their speculation.Since 1980, only two position players have posted a better than 5.1 WAR while spending most of the year at 20 years-old. Heyward's 5.1 WAR ranks behind Alex Rodriguez's 9.8 WAR and Ken Griffey Jr.'s 5.3 WAR. Those guys are Hall of Fame-bound. That not eye-opening enough for you? Maybe it wasn't Mike Trout good (he will likely better Heyward's 5.1 WAR), but it was still a damn good accomplishment. People need to understand how awesome Heyward's rookie season was. I don't know if people felt it was less than astonishing because of his terrible follow-up season or if they just don't get it, but Heyward was extraordinary in 2010. I think people who soured on Heyward after his sophomore season aren't very smart or capable analysts.
The Braves need to perform like a gamer team. I think over the last few years, including the transition from Bobby Cox to Gonzalez, they’ve lost a little of that excitement and energy that used to come so easily to them. That can certainly be changed with youth, who tend to bring a fresh-faced energy with them, but it helps for it to be infectious, to encompass the whole team.Again, no real definition. The Braves, last season, were around the average in both hitters' age and pitchers' age. Their pitching was the fourth oldest in 2010 and hitters were around the average. In fact, there hitters haven't been amongst the youngest since back-to-back playoff misses in '06-'07, but really, that's not all that important. What is important is that excitement and energy are fun and everything, but it doesn't mean a lot if you aren't winning and winning games comes down to pitching well, fielding your position, and getting on base. I promise you that you can have a team of guys with loads of energy vs. a team that calmly goes about their business but is more talented and the more talented team will typically win. Unless they are managed by Fredi that is.
Matt Diaz probably has more energy than anyone else on the team. He hustles, tries hard, does everything he can. He's still dragging the team down. Energy never replaces talent. Tyler Pastornicky didn't suck because he wasn't excited about being in the bigs or coming to the park with fresh-faced energy. He sucked because he's not a particularly gifted player. This isn't basketball where a high energy can seems to really change the game. There are no Anderson Varejao's in baseball. There is simply a gap between talent and untalented, performing and nonperforming, coaching and Fredi Gonzalez. The Braves don't win because they "out-energied" the competition.
Gamers are a fun cliche, but the fact is the Braves need more than cliches. They need a starter capable of posting a solid K/9 rate and good WHIP. They need a shortstop capable of walking upright. They need bench players who get on-base. Jack Wilson doesn't suck because he doesn't gamer-it-up enough. He sucks because he sucks. I know he tries hard. He's a professional! Nonperforming players typically last even shorter if they don't have energy and don't try hard. They made it to the major fucking leagues. 750 people on a given day accomplish such a feat. But when you get to the bigs, things change. Either you can hit a curve or you can't. Either you can throw your fastball for quality strikes or you can't. No amount of energy makes up for a lack of range. You aren't a gamer if you take the extra base...you're simply doing your job.
You know who was a gamer? Brooks Conrad. Dude gave everything he had and still couldn't field a ball in the 2010 playoffs. But being a gamer ultimately doesn't beat anyone.
But seriously, Fredi sucks.
Friday, July 13, 2012
Making the Most
And we're back.
After a brief reprieve, baseball's second half opens tonight as the Braves start a three-game set at home against the New York Mets. The latter is a surprisingly half-game worse than the Braves' disappointing 46-39 record, though both trail the front-running Nationals. On Sunday, the Braves will welcome Ben Sheets to the team, though there is no move just yet to define who he will replace. It would seem reasonable to believe that the former Brewer would take Mike Minor's place as Randall Delgado has outpitched the "Start Me or Trade Me" Minor.
That's the easy choice. What to do about shortstop is the much tougher one. Andrelton Simmons hustled a double against the Phillies in the final game of the season's first half, but slid head-first into second and broke his right pinky. I could go into a whole diatribe on how much I despise the head-first slide, but regardless, losing Simmons is a massive blow for the Braves' chances of making a run toward October glory. While Simmons will likely be back before September, possibly well before, the Braves don't have a reasonable option in-house.
Jack Wilson is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad, baseball player. Other than that, he's a swell guy. However, the Braves would need plus production from the rest of the team to escape the gigantic hole Wilson would provide. While it's almost inevitable that Wilson's stats would benefit from playing five times a week from his current .174 average (.203 BABIP), the chances that his offensive numbers mounted to more than a few more singles than usual are minimal. Even worse, Wilson's skills are far more useful in the AL than the NL. You can't use him for bunts when the pitcher follows and in close games, you are in the destructive position of having to empty your bench both for his spot and the pitcher spot while probably using a third bench player to play short. And for all of the talk about his formally awesome glove, Wilson's in his third consecutive year of negative UZR.
The former starter Tyler Pastornicky is not an example of a possible posthype sleeper. Even if Pastornicky had hit better than .255 with a nearly 2-to-1 K/BB rate at Gwinnett, the simple truth is Pastornicky's ability at short is limited to a game here and there.
Of the six other options at AA and AAA, none of them can even match Pastornicky's .676 OPS at Gwinnett and probably wouldn't be a defensive lift over Wilson.
Now, the more conservative view is to sit back, hope the rest of the team can provide a lift, and deal with the production (or lack there of) at shortstop until Simmons can come back. I do understand the idea, but if the Braves wish to make the most of this season, they should act and thankfully, according to several bloggers, that is exactly what the Braves wish to do. As they open the second half, Pastornicky hasn't even been recalled yet as they hope to not need to make another procedural move. And let's not act like replacing Simmons for a month should be the only goal. Jack Wilson was already performing at a substandard pace and with the bench troubles the Braves have had, getting a middle infielder should have already been on the wish list. Simmons's injury only upped the urgency.
Who are the best targets?
Marco Scutaro - While his price tag might hurt the Braves' interest, Scutaro has to be at the top of the list. While defensively comparable to Wilson at this point in their careers, Scutaro actually comes with a bat. An 0.9 WAR player, Scutaro won't be a difference maker, but he can hold down the fort and provide sufficient support for the Atlanta Braves down the stretch. Scutaro has evolved nicely from a backup utility player to a solid enough shortstop. This year for the Rockies, Scutaro has hit .277, but his OBP, SLG, wOBA are all slightly down. That likely wouldn't be improved by a move to the Ted. Also a concern is the $3M or so that is left on his contract. How much the Braves would be willing to take on at this point of the season for essentially a bench piece for any playoff run is of some debate. However, of the known available options, Scutaro is probably the best.
Brendan Ryan - Often mentioned as a likely pickup for the Braves, Ryan has done what seems impossible by posting a 1.6 WAR while hitting .187. That makes me think of Demolition Man and "Murder, Death, Kill" which sounds like an awesome nickname for Ryan. As far as defense goes, Ryan provides it at a Gold Glove level and has been a tremendous defender at shortstop since arriving in the bigs for the Cardinals. Plus, he had a cool mustache. The Braves can retain him next year via arbitration, though how much would you pay for awesome defense when you already have Simmons? Offensively, Ryan gets you some steals, but not a whole lot more.
Willie Bloomquist - A prototypical utility player, Bloomquist played every position except pitcher and catcher in 2010. Bloomquist has had a nice little season for the Diamondbacks, hitting .294/.324/.393 while getting a lot of playing time at shortstop due to injuries. However, his shortstop this season has been awfully close to Pastornicky's level so you are hoping to bank on Bloomquist performing at a high level offensively. True to form, he's posted a .757 OPS at home and a .675 OPS away so there would likely be regression. In addition, you are also committing to some degree to Bloomquist as a backup in 2013 as he inked a two-year, $3.8M contract last November. He's a better 25th man than Wilson because you can move him around and he typically gives you a nice average and a few steals. With the D'Backs still in contention, he might not be easy to acquire.
Obviously, the options aren't awesome by any means, but any of the three would represent an improvement over Wilson. Scutaro gives you starter-capable offense from short, Ryan provides top-flight defense, and Bloomquist is your classic example of the last guy on an NL bench. Of course, all three have their concerns. Scutaro makes a lot of money to be a starter for a month and a backup for the rest of the year while Ryan has barely outhit Wilson and Bloomquist's defense is bad at shortstop. Regardless, to make the most of this opportunity to get to October baseball, the Braves need to improve.
After a brief reprieve, baseball's second half opens tonight as the Braves start a three-game set at home against the New York Mets. The latter is a surprisingly half-game worse than the Braves' disappointing 46-39 record, though both trail the front-running Nationals. On Sunday, the Braves will welcome Ben Sheets to the team, though there is no move just yet to define who he will replace. It would seem reasonable to believe that the former Brewer would take Mike Minor's place as Randall Delgado has outpitched the "Start Me or Trade Me" Minor.
That's the easy choice. What to do about shortstop is the much tougher one. Andrelton Simmons hustled a double against the Phillies in the final game of the season's first half, but slid head-first into second and broke his right pinky. I could go into a whole diatribe on how much I despise the head-first slide, but regardless, losing Simmons is a massive blow for the Braves' chances of making a run toward October glory. While Simmons will likely be back before September, possibly well before, the Braves don't have a reasonable option in-house.
Jack Wilson is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad, baseball player. Other than that, he's a swell guy. However, the Braves would need plus production from the rest of the team to escape the gigantic hole Wilson would provide. While it's almost inevitable that Wilson's stats would benefit from playing five times a week from his current .174 average (.203 BABIP), the chances that his offensive numbers mounted to more than a few more singles than usual are minimal. Even worse, Wilson's skills are far more useful in the AL than the NL. You can't use him for bunts when the pitcher follows and in close games, you are in the destructive position of having to empty your bench both for his spot and the pitcher spot while probably using a third bench player to play short. And for all of the talk about his formally awesome glove, Wilson's in his third consecutive year of negative UZR.
The former starter Tyler Pastornicky is not an example of a possible posthype sleeper. Even if Pastornicky had hit better than .255 with a nearly 2-to-1 K/BB rate at Gwinnett, the simple truth is Pastornicky's ability at short is limited to a game here and there.
Of the six other options at AA and AAA, none of them can even match Pastornicky's .676 OPS at Gwinnett and probably wouldn't be a defensive lift over Wilson.
Now, the more conservative view is to sit back, hope the rest of the team can provide a lift, and deal with the production (or lack there of) at shortstop until Simmons can come back. I do understand the idea, but if the Braves wish to make the most of this season, they should act and thankfully, according to several bloggers, that is exactly what the Braves wish to do. As they open the second half, Pastornicky hasn't even been recalled yet as they hope to not need to make another procedural move. And let's not act like replacing Simmons for a month should be the only goal. Jack Wilson was already performing at a substandard pace and with the bench troubles the Braves have had, getting a middle infielder should have already been on the wish list. Simmons's injury only upped the urgency.
Who are the best targets?
Marco Scutaro - While his price tag might hurt the Braves' interest, Scutaro has to be at the top of the list. While defensively comparable to Wilson at this point in their careers, Scutaro actually comes with a bat. An 0.9 WAR player, Scutaro won't be a difference maker, but he can hold down the fort and provide sufficient support for the Atlanta Braves down the stretch. Scutaro has evolved nicely from a backup utility player to a solid enough shortstop. This year for the Rockies, Scutaro has hit .277, but his OBP, SLG, wOBA are all slightly down. That likely wouldn't be improved by a move to the Ted. Also a concern is the $3M or so that is left on his contract. How much the Braves would be willing to take on at this point of the season for essentially a bench piece for any playoff run is of some debate. However, of the known available options, Scutaro is probably the best.
Brendan Ryan - Often mentioned as a likely pickup for the Braves, Ryan has done what seems impossible by posting a 1.6 WAR while hitting .187. That makes me think of Demolition Man and "Murder, Death, Kill" which sounds like an awesome nickname for Ryan. As far as defense goes, Ryan provides it at a Gold Glove level and has been a tremendous defender at shortstop since arriving in the bigs for the Cardinals. Plus, he had a cool mustache. The Braves can retain him next year via arbitration, though how much would you pay for awesome defense when you already have Simmons? Offensively, Ryan gets you some steals, but not a whole lot more.
Willie Bloomquist - A prototypical utility player, Bloomquist played every position except pitcher and catcher in 2010. Bloomquist has had a nice little season for the Diamondbacks, hitting .294/.324/.393 while getting a lot of playing time at shortstop due to injuries. However, his shortstop this season has been awfully close to Pastornicky's level so you are hoping to bank on Bloomquist performing at a high level offensively. True to form, he's posted a .757 OPS at home and a .675 OPS away so there would likely be regression. In addition, you are also committing to some degree to Bloomquist as a backup in 2013 as he inked a two-year, $3.8M contract last November. He's a better 25th man than Wilson because you can move him around and he typically gives you a nice average and a few steals. With the D'Backs still in contention, he might not be easy to acquire.
Obviously, the options aren't awesome by any means, but any of the three would represent an improvement over Wilson. Scutaro gives you starter-capable offense from short, Ryan provides top-flight defense, and Bloomquist is your classic example of the last guy on an NL bench. Of course, all three have their concerns. Scutaro makes a lot of money to be a starter for a month and a backup for the rest of the year while Ryan has barely outhit Wilson and Bloomquist's defense is bad at shortstop. Regardless, to make the most of this opportunity to get to October baseball, the Braves need to improve.
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Random Prospect of the Day - Matt Talley
The Random Prospects series returns with a pitcher. With 122 pitchers listed under the B-R page, random.org gave me number 109. Matt Talley. Four prospects in, I have two catchers and two lefties. This series is exciting!
Not sure what's going on with his left arm in this picture. Guess it wasn't feeling too well. Anywho, Talley is a 22 year-old from Sumter, South Carolina who will turn 23 in exactly one month. After graduating high school in 2007, he stayed close to home and attended The Citadel for four years, making 48 starts along the way. It's tough to get an easy four year read-out on his numbers as a Bulldog, but Talley appeared to have carved a niche out as an okayish arm with a great pickoff move. In his freshman year, he picked off nine runners in 15 outings. In 2009 as a sophomore, he went 8-1 with a 3.42 ERA, including a 2.18 ERA in conference play.
Not sure what's going on with his left arm in this picture. Guess it wasn't feeling too well. Anywho, Talley is a 22 year-old from Sumter, South Carolina who will turn 23 in exactly one month. After graduating high school in 2007, he stayed close to home and attended The Citadel for four years, making 48 starts along the way. It's tough to get an easy four year read-out on his numbers as a Bulldog, but Talley appeared to have carved a niche out as an okayish arm with a great pickoff move. In his freshman year, he picked off nine runners in 15 outings. In 2009 as a sophomore, he went 8-1 with a 3.42 ERA, including a 2.18 ERA in conference play.
His junior season in 2010 was capped off by an All-Tournament Team selection for the NCAA Regional in Columbia. He matched his eight wins in 2009 and had the ninth-longest scoreless inning streak of the year with 20.1 innings. He tossed a pair of shutouts, had a no-hitter going into the seventh for his first win, and was on the mound for the conference-clinching win against Georgia Southern. Another highlight came in the Regionals when he threw seven solid innings as The Citadel upset #16 Virginia Tech 7-2. In June of 2010, the Diamondbacks selected him with their 25th round pick, but he did not sign.
Tabbed as the ace in 2011, Talley did not have nearly the season he had hoped for. He struggled in his first two starts before missing nearly a month due to injury (I assume). The pick for preseason Conference Pitcher of the Year picked up a pair of complete games once he came back, but finished just 3-7 with a 3.95 ERA. He picked up 72 K's in 82 innings and was picked with the 866th overall selection by the Braves. Essentially, he returned and got his degree in civil engineering, but fell three rounds in the draft. He was the second pitcher the Braves had plucked in recent years from The Citadel. Matt Crim logged three seasons in the organization, but was cut before this season after stalling in A-ball.
The southpaw appeared in games for three different affiliates last year, but spent the bulk of his time with the GCL Braves. In 12 games, including six starts, Talley finished with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP to go with his 3.34 FIP. The GCL Braves finished 10 games under .500 so his 1-3 record is hardly a slam on his efforts. He received a late August one-game appearance out of the Danville pen and pitched poorly, walking a pair and giving up a pair of hits in one two-run frame. Still, he appeared in the second-to-last game of the year for the Lynchburg Hillcats and gave up three runs in the first three innings, but limited the damage from there and after 5.1 innings, he left with a 4-3 lead on the heels of a three-run homer by Joey Terdoslavich and an inside-the-park homer by Keenan Wiley. The 'Cats would give up the lead to rob Talley of his first class-A victory. He gave up seven hits and a walk while striking out no one.
Talley is the case of an older college pitcher who, if he is to stick around in organized baseball, needs to accelerate up the ladder quickly. This year, the results have been the opposite. After either an injury or simply not making the Rome roster out of camp sapped Talley of the first couple of months of the season, Talley finally made his season debut on June 7th with two scoreless innings and 3 K's out of the Rome pen. Over his next three appearances, he gave up eight runs (three earned) and struck out three to five walks. He was re-assigned to Danville and after a pair of decent outings, he walked three in his last one. Overall, in seven games, Talley has 13 strikeouts to nine walks in 13.2 ING. When he's not missing bats, they are finding holes as he has been roughed up for 20 hits.
The rest of this summer is very important for Talley's chances at being in the organization next season. When you are already 22 and you can't stay out of rookie-ball, your future has issues. Talley's a lefty so those guys can stick around, but with nothing to set him apart outside of what arm he throws with, Talley's place on the depth chart will be at the bottom if he's not producing. Being that he was a 28th round pick, the Braves have little investment in his future and he's being lapped by this year's draftees. His time to sink or swim is now.
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