Foltynewicz giving the Braves a Lift

By EricEnfermero (Own work)
[CC BY-SA 3.0], via Wikimedia Commons

How good was Mike Foltynewicz on Saturday?

His second-best four-seam fastball in velocity came in the 8th inning (97.28 mph). His sinker never wavered in movement throughout the night. He had confidence in all five of his pitches, using each over the final two innings. And while it deserves to be said that the Royals offense is not that good right now, Foltynewicz made them look stupid throughout the entire evening.

Which begs a second question - has he turned the corner?

When the Braves acquired Foltynewicz in a deal for Evan Gattis, he immediately jumped to the front-of-the-line as far as top Braves prospects go with only Max Fried and Lucas Sims around to challenge that title. Subsequent additions of Matt Wisler, Touki Toussaint, Kolby Allard, Sean Newcomb, and Aaron Blair have dropped Foltynewicz (side-note - that's a ridiculous amount of pitching) in prospect rankings, but Foltynewicz still had a number of things going in his favor. First - unlike all of the other arms I just mentioned, Foltynewicz had already appeared in the majors by the time the Braves acquired him. Second - his easy delivery masked the fact that he had such high-end velocity. For example, he hit 101.17 mph against the Rangers on August 9, 2014. Third - with his fastball/slider combination, he had the makings of a high-value reliever even if he failed as a starter.

That was what the Braves acquired and in 2015, they saw glimpses of all of that. They also saw a raw pitcher who despite some of the best stuff of the entire system, was simply not getting enough outs. Foltynewicz was hurt by a few things. He depended entirely too much on his fourseamer to get him ahead on batters because his other pitches simply were not getting by hitters - especially his changeup. What's that old saying that major league hitters can time a freight train if they know it's coming? Hitters laid off his slider and keyed on his fastball. The results were not advantageous for Foltynewicz. Some of that was due to luck (67.7 LOB% stands out) but a large part of it was that, and I hate to use this cliche, Foltynewicz was a thrower and not a pitcher.

A case of pneumonia and the development of blood clots in his right arm ended his season prematurely last September. He would need offseason surgery and had a belated time table this spring because of it. Foltynewicz would have a late run for a rotation spot, but ultimately headed to Gwinnett to begin the year. He struggled with his control over four starts in the minors, walking at least four batters three times. However, he also showed some of the nastiness the Braves wanted to see. Over his final three starts, he averaged 16 strikes looking and 14 strikes swinging. It was a short sample size, but other than the control bugaboos, he looked like a pitcher who was progressing.

That brought Foltynewicz to the majors. For Folty, it was a big opportunity. Unlike a lot of Atlanta's young arms, he does not have time on his side. While he's still young (won't turn 25 this October), Foltynewicz was at risk of being passed over as a starting option by those on his heels. Again, many felt his ultimate landing spot would be the bullpen. It was vital for Foltynewicz to come up and throw strikes and impress.

His first 30 pitches...could have gone better.

After a strikeout, Foltynewicz would give up homers to 3-of-the-next-4 batters he faced and was in a 4-0 hole quickly. With this offense, that was a death sentence. Foltynewicz did limit the Mets from there (though he still got hit hard) before being replaced with two outs and two on in the fourth. Six days later, Folynewicz got a shot to show his 2016 could be different from his 2015 and excelled against the Diamondbacks. Over seven quality innings, he walked none and struck out eight. Of his 68 strikes, 22 were looking. He gave up just two line drives and a homer on the day. Limit the amount of line drives, limit the damage done. The Braves ultimately lost in extras, but it was a sign that Foltynewicz could be better. He highlighted that latter fact six days later against the Royals on Saturday. Over eight dominant innings, he struck out four and didn't walk a batter. His last two starts are the first two times he has not walked a better when starting a game.

One of the big differences so far this season comes in his pitch selection. He's throwing his four-seamer less and his breaking balls more. He's also spotting them a hell of a lot better. 6% of all pitches thrown by Foltynewicz came right through the middle of the zone last year. Hitters are going to murder badly spotted balls at this level no matter how hard they are thrown. The 2016 season has seen him keep the ball more on the corners and when he attempts to bust a batter inside, he's actually getting the ball inside. As a result, he's pitching ahead of batters and putting them on the defensive. He's getting more groundballs and hitters are making "softer" contact.

Sticking with pitch selection, Foltynewicz is less predictable on first pitches. Last year against right-handers, he went to his fourseamer 57% of the time on the first pitch. It gave right-handed batters an advantage because no matter how hard Foltynewicz throws that pitch, hitters knew that they could bet it was coming when they stepped in. He showed more variety against lefthanders (42% four-seam, 33% sinker), but again - batters knew the hard stuff was coming on the first pitch. That's not too unusual, but it puts the pitcher in a tough situation of only having the location as means to fool the hitter. So far in 2016, he has been more diverse on the first pitch - especially since he uses his breaking ball more often. For instance, lefties are seeing the curveball nearly a quarter of first pitches while right-handed batters are seeing his slider 31% of all first pitches. Hitters are seeing these numbers and coming to the plate with the knowledge that Foltynewicz is less predictable. Right-handers especially are in a tough spot. Foltynewicz has used his slider against them at any moment in the at-bat, which makes his fastball more dangerous because the slider also keeps batter off-balance speed-wise.

All of these are golden. All of these are also based on a very limited sample size. We'll know more about how far Foltynewicz has progressed as we reach the dog days of summer. I'd like to see him use his changeup more and show an even higher commitment to his sinker. I'm also a little concerned about his number of swinging strikes. I expect more with his stuff. But those "complaints" are minor compared to the things that are trending in the right direction for the right-hander.

With so many young arms already in the fold and developing in the minors, the time is now for Foltynewicz to stake his claim to a spot in the rotation. So far - so good.

Braves Monday Roundup - Rome Goes 19, Soroka, Youth Movement

Welcome to the second Braves Monday Roundup. This series was supposed to be a way to recap the week in short fashion while freeing up Monday for a more focused look at a player or whathaveyou at my other blog, where I used to post weekly 5 for Monday articles. However, as I mentioned a few times this week, my other blog will be no more. About.com has restructured and the About Sports department got the ax. It's unfortunate, but alas, it's business. The advantage to that development for this blog means more content. I'm going to be saving some of the articles from About and should it completely disappear, I will be republishing the best stuff here.

Speaking of content, I will continue to do my shameless plugs, but I will put them at the bottom of this post rather as a headliner like I did last week.

5 Stories You May Have Missed

Rome Plays 2. Counts for 1
-On Sunday, the Rome Braves visited Hickory with Ricardo Sanchez on the mound. It was a matchup between the team with the best record in the South Atlantic League and Rome, who entered Sunday tied with the worst record. Hictory would strike first, cashing in a Alejandro Salazar error in for a run. In the second, Rome tied it up on a double-steal on a Leudys Baez strikeout. And that's how it would remain for about four hours. Sanchez had struck out six in five innings, A.J. Minter had tossed another scoreless outing, Trevor Belicek went four scoreless, and Grayson Jones added a trio of scoreless frames of his own, but the Rome offense couldn't find a way to break through. Finally, in the 18th, Baez would lead off things with a single. After a bunt and walk, Salazar would benefit from an error this time as a throwing error brought home a run. Bladimir Matos couldn't make it stick, though. He hit a batter and walked one. A wild pitch pushed both into scoring position and with one out, a fielder's choice scored a run. Matos got out of it, though, setting the stage for a wild 19th inning.

After a single, flyout, and the fifth error of the day by both teams, another error off the bat of Baez scored Rome's third run. The next four batters all reaches safely with the seventh error of the day advancing Ray-Patrick Didder to third. He would score on a Luke Dykstra flyout. Finally, Yepez brought home a final runner with a double. Rome had plated SEVEN runs in the 19th. In the bottom half, Rome switched Yepez to third so that Yeudi Grullon could pitch. The infielder walked one, but had a quiet 19th to finish the game. There will be few games crazier this year at any level.

Soroka Impresses
-The blog "Notes from the Sally" is a must-read for any minor league baseball fan. This week, John Calvagno profiled right-hander Mike Soroka. Drafted 28th overall last season out of Calgary, Soroka impressed Calvagno with his fastball and curve. Calvagno's greatest compliment is one that I've heard a few times when Soroka's name has come up. "Hard to believe he's just 18 years old." Soroka is a guy who should only climb up midseason prospect charts.

Braves Rotation Gets Younger
-Many people looked at the roster that broke camp and saw a plethroa of veterans from Bud Norris to Eric O'Flaherty to Jeff Francoeur and wondered, "if this is a rebuild, why all the old fogies?" Well, the thing about all of those veterans is that they make nice placeholders. The starting rotation has especially went through a youth movement already. With Norris shifted to the pen and Jhoulys Chacin traded, it left Julio Teheran as the only starter with at least 25 starts in the majors, according to the AJC's Michael Cunningham. Not only that, but the Braves had five starters who have yet to celebrate their 26th birthday when no other team has three. Last year, the Braves became the first team in history with six pitchers logging at least 15 starts who were 25-and-under. 2016 is not looking any different.

Right Field at SunTrust Will Be "Signature Item"
-One of the complaints with Turner Field is how...boring it is. From foul pole to foul pole, there are no nooks and crannies. No oddities that is special to Turner Field. Instead, Turner Field was built to be as normal and basic as you get with a bigger focus on the team on the field than ivy in the outfield, a Green Monster, a stupid hill in center field, or any number of things that make other ballparks unique. Suntrust Park, on the other hand, is designed to be different. One of the "signature items" will be brick wall right above 10 feet of padding in right field. The wall will be in play so hitters will have to hit the ball over it for homeruns. Otherwise, if it hits the brick, the outfielders will have to play how it caroms off the brick. It should be something to keep an eye on early next year.

Did the D'Backs win the Upton Trade?
-ArizonaSports.com's John Gambadoro wrote last week something that I felt had long ago been decided and was not up for debate. Except, Gambadoro came to the opposite conclusion as conventional wisdom. His position - the Diamondbacks won the Justin Upton trade. The mega deal completed in the 2012-13 offseason sent Upton and Chris Johnson to the Braves for Randall Delgado, Martin Prado, Nick Ahmed, Zeke Spruill and Brandon Drury. At the time, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers was criticized for the move, but Gambadoro looks at the deal with a fresh perspective and comes away with the idea that the D'Backs got the better end of the deal. Now, there is something to be said that the D'Backs didn't do as badly as many felt they did with this trade, but it's short-sighted to come to the conclusion that Arizona won it. While the writer focuses solely on Upton, he misses the trade that sent Upton to the Padres for Max Fried, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, and Jace Peterson. While Jace is back in the minors, Mallex looks like a potential starter, Dustin is raking, and Fried is back on the mound and showcasing his knee-buckling curveball. Those four players should be mentioned - especially since the writer mentions what the Diamondbacks got in the Prado exchange. Ultimately, like I said, the deal doesn't look nearly as bad now as it did when it happened, but it's still not looking good for Arizona.

Trivia Question
-Last week, I asked the question - "Since 2000, what pitcher had the most scoreless games to begin his career." The answer was not Hunter Cervenka, but Brad Ziegler, who began his career with with 29 games (and 39.1 innings) of scoreless ball out of the Oakland Athletics bullpen. It was Melvin Upton who ended the streak with a go-ahead double off Ziegler in a tie game. This week's question focuses on the fact the Braves have just four players who have a hit a homerun this year. "In the expansion era (1961-to-present), and excluding the streak-shortened 1981, what three teams have tied for the fewest players on the team to hit at least one homerun?" I'll give you a hint on one of the teams. Let's Play Two. Tweet at me if you know the answer.

Birthdays
-Billy Martin would have been 88 today. Martin, best known for being George Steinbrenner's favorite toy, played in six games with the Milwaukee Braves during the 1961 season. Also celebrating a birthday today is Sean McLaughlin, a right-hander with Carolina, who turns 22. Tomorrow, Pascual Perez would have been 59. Jordy Lara, an infielder for Mississippi, also has a May 17th birthday and turns 25. The following day, Marcus Giles turns 38. The powerful player made my Favorites Braves squad. Current righty Williams Perez will turn 25 on Saturday. On Sunday, Rio Ruiz will be just 22.

Shameless Plugs
Transaction Tuesday - Recapping a pair of trades, Adonis Garcia's demotion, and the promotion of A.J. Minter and Juan Yepez.

Braves Cash in Chacin - Atlanta traded pitcher Jhoulys Chacin last week as a means to sell high on the righty. My impression is that they may have sold too soon, but I understood the impulse.

Have any Braves Pitchers Hit Two Homers in the Same Game? - After Noah Syndergaard went yard twice last week, I fired up the Baseball-Reference Play Index and sought to answer that question.

Cherishing Cervenka - Unfortunately for Hunter Cervenka, I completely jinxed him as he surrendered his first runs later that day.

Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - In the first of a ten part series where I alternate between the Worst and Best drafts since 2000, I started last week with the fifth worst.

Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Topics included hitting fewer homers than games won, Nick Markakis not hitting any homers, Julio Teheran's durability, and how awesome Arodys Vizcaino's advanced metrics are.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack - Dustin Peterson, Dansby Swanson, and Ray-Patrick Didder among others were keyed on for this week.

Random Prospect Sunday - This week, I focused on Steve Janas, a righty who nearly threw a Perfect Game last season.

Thanks for reading and remember to follow me on Twitter.

Random Prospect Sunday - Steve Janas

Pitch to contact. It can be a dangerous path to the majors as it puts the pitcher in the unenviable position of relying on his fielders to step up and make plays. Further, it puts a manager in an uncomfortable position of knowing that when there is less-and-two outs and a runner on third, the chance that runner scores is increased simply by the pitcher on the mound not having the capability of putting the batter away. On the other hand, contact pitchers are often smart, deceptive, and stubborn. They play the long game. If Steve Janas ever gets to the major, it'll be because he never tried to be what he wasn't and knew his limitations. Rather than fear those limitations, pitchers like Janas often use them as assets to avoid the hiccups of doing too much.

Born on April 21, 1992 in Marietta, Janas did not get a gift from the eventual NL West Champs as the Braves fell 4-2 to the Padres in San Diego. Nevertheless, Janas would grow up around Atlanta at a big time for the Braves as they would roll out divisional titles year-after-year until Janas was a teenager. Undrafted out of Lassiter High School, Janas stayed local and enrolled at Kennesaw State University. It didn't take him long to see the field as pitched in ten games as a true freshman - including a pair of starts. He displayed what would become his typical control and though the results weren't great, it set the stage for a nice career.

Unfortunately, his sophomore year ended after just seven starts due to injury. He was well on his way to some potential Atlantic Sun Conference honors before the injury. The 6'5" righty returned for his junior year and became a very hot prospect. Over 13 starts, Janas walked just 14 batters in 78.2 innings (1.6 BB/9). He also struck out 55 and gave up only one dinger. His finest outing was a shutout victory against East Tennessee State in which he gave up just five hits. As June approached, Janas was rising on many teams' draft boards - including the Atlanta Braves. They would select him in the sixth round of the 2013 draft.

Nearly as soon as Janas's career began, it hit its first stumbling block. In his second start with Danville, Janas went down with injury. He would later need Tommy John surgery and just like that, he was on the mend. Janas made a nearly flawless recovery and made it back to live action just 11 months later with Rome. He would struggle as he tried to hit his spots, but logged nearly a hundred innings despite beginning the year on the DL.

Janas's return in 2014 set him up for a big follow-up season. He was bumped up the ladder to begin the year with Carolina and it became quickly apparent that Janas was just too good for the Carolina League. He gave up just one hit in a six-inning, 6 K opener and continued to roll from there. On May 6, Janas would show some of what prompted the Braves to draft him so high. Over a seven inning double-header shortened game, Janas dominated the Lynchburg Hillcats. Of his 93 pitches, 64 were strikes (including 21 looking and 10 swinging). He took a perfect game into the seventh inning before a miracle single ended the bid. Janas would finish the seven-inning one-hitter with 4 Ks. He would not start again until June 27 because of the bus crash that wrecked the Mudcats' roster.

After one start with Carolina, Janas was moved up to Mississippi. His success there was not nearly as consistent. He was vulnerable to big games from the opposition. While he was charged with two or fewer earned runs in all but four of the 13 starts he made after the promotion, those four outliers saw Janas either give up six or seven runs. Janas, who had give up precious few hits with Carolina, couldn't avoid them in Mississippi.

Janas would be pushed out of the Mississippi rotation to begin 2016. Coming out of the bullpen, Janas lacks the strikeout potential of many other relievers, but he is a solid option when you need someone to throw strikes and give you multiple frames. He has appeal to managers who seek a rally-killing option with a pitcher who can induce a double play. One advantage to moving Janas to the pen is it allows him to not have to reserve his velocity. An upper 80's guy in college, Janas can reach the mid-90's with his fastball - though that pitch must be spotted properly because it lacks much movement. It should be noted that former scouting director Tony DeMacio and his team banked on Janas adding velocity once he went pro. He loses a few ticks in velocity, but he is far more likely to utilize a sinking fastball and cut-fastball as his primary high-velocity pitches. The sinker is a good bet against righties while the cutter keeps lefties at bay.



When Janas has control over his change-up, it can be a dominator that he throws from the same motion and delivery of his fastball. When he's on, the change simply dies as it reaches the plate, which implores hitters to pound the ball into the ground and be massively frustrated while doing so. Janas also mixes in a curveball. It's been a challenge for him to control it consistently. When he does, it's a traditional 12-6 curveball that drops off the map and under the batter's swing. When he doesn't, it hangs a little and even moves to the side a bit. He has a very simple and smooth delivery to the plate that is repeatable. A friend of mine mentioned that his delivery is that of a little guy. Despite his size, he keeps everything compact and doesn't come flailing to the plate. It gives Janas an easier time fixing problems that may develop. I'd like it if he came out of the delivery a little quicker and ready to field his position considering he's a groundball guy.

Janas is a light-switch player in my book. If that curveball develops into an out pitch, he finally has the last weapon needed for him to be a potential option at the bottom of a major league rotation. Short of that, he could see work as a long reliever/emergency starter and could have a run similar to David Hale, which should prompt his team to sell high. For some reason, I see Janas being a guy who carves out a nice career overseas in Japan or Korea. That said, he is a hard worker and has done well to go from undrafted out of high school to the sixth round as a junior in college.

Follow Janas on Twitter.

Want more Random Prospect Sunday profiles?
Luke Dykstra
Lucas Sims
Steve Rodriguez
...or see ALL of them.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack - Peterson, Swanson, Didder, Bird

Dustin Peterson > D.J. Peterson with .383 wOBA

It's exceedingly early, but for the first times in their respective professional careers, the younger Peterson is outproducing his much-heralded older brother at the plate. Dustin really struggled at Carolina last year, though considering his age and the difficulty with hitting in the Carolina League, maybe he should have been given a mulligan. Further, the improvements that he did make were not given much coverage. After 1-in-5 of all PA in 2014 ended with Peterson swinging through strike three, he knocked that down to 13.7 (or essentially league average). He upped his true BB% rate from 5.5% to 9.3%. These were little things that may have not impressed people looking at his .253/.319/.350 slash, but showed that Peterson was a kid who might be getting it.

In 2016, he does get it. Well, so far. His triple slash is up to .277/.345/.477 and he has minor improvements in swinging third strikes and true walks (non-IBB). He's also began to flash the power that made an intriguing player when the Padres drafted him. After about 5% of flyballs turned into homers from 2014-15, he has nearly doubled that metric in 2016. With a 119 wOBA+, Peterson is looking like he's definitely on the rise.

By Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr (Original
version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Swanson's Struggles Continue

Need another example why the Braves shouldn't rush prospects to the majors? Here is Dansby Swanson's last eight games.

0-for-3, 2 BB, K
0-for-3, HBP
0-for-3, BB, 2 K
0-for-4, K
3-for-4, 3B, BB
0-for-4, K
0-for-3, BB
0-for-4, K

This is nothing to worry about, but it does show us that maybe Swanson could be better suited working through adversity in Double-A rather than desperately searching for a hit when he puts up goose eggs in seven-of-eight games in the majors.

RPD Refuses to Slow Down

At some point, the performance of Ray-Patrick Didder has to be more than just BABIP driven. Certainly his .379 BABIP should see an element of regression, but that can't explain his .283/.372/.425 triple slash completely. One of the more interesting things to watch as the season progresses is if his .142 ISO is for the real. A competent ISO with an outfielder capable of swiping 20 or more bases is worth prospect-attention. The fact that he has a good understanding of the strikezone and takes his walks will only help.

.400 OBP + .186 ISO = Call-up?

Back in 2014, Joey Meneses became a bit of a prospect for the Rome. Signed out of Mexico, the 1B/OF was repeating the level and despite spending much of the year on the DL, finished with just 28 fewer total bases in 50 fewer games than he did in 2013. Highlights included a May 10th home game against Asheville in which Meneses hit for the cycle. At the time, with so few prospects churning in the minors (especially hitters), Meneses garnered more attention than he likely deserved. The following year, he would struggle nightly with Carolina. The performance would force the nearly 24 year-old to repeat the Carolina League assignment to begin this season. It might be time to bump him up.

He was pretty good overall, but has stepped it up over his last 17 games. He's hit .450 with 7 2B, 4 HR, and even added a pair of steals. He does a lot of his damage against younger pitchers and certainly, an abbreviated run in his second go-around with Carolina doesn't mean he should be back in our minds as a potential major leaguer, but he's not getting any younger. Time to see what he can do at Mississippi.

"You sold my dead bird to a blind kid?"

If last year's Hector Olivera exchange wasn't looking bad enough for you, the other piece acquired in the deal - Zachary Bird - has been awful so far. Moved to the bullpen to begin the season, the 21 year-old righty out of Jackson, Mississippi comes with a bevy of worrisome stats. 14 unintentional walks in 13 innings to 70 batters faced. A declining GB% rate that has fell to 42%. 5.89 FIP. Strikeout percentage that has plummeted from 18% last year to 11% this year.

Bird three a pair of scoreless innings last night with a hit allowed, two walks, and a strikeout. He got the same amount of swinging strikes in that one outing that he did the previous three in which he faced 13 more hitters. Maybe it's a hopeful sign because the Braves are certainly searching for positives with Bird.

Thanks for reading and remember to read the major league portion of this article by either scrolling down or, if you came to this blog directly, clicking here.

Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Markakis, Teheran, Vizzy

This article used to be a staple of my time at AtlantaBraves.About.com, but with my contract with the company ending - and their sports department being blown up - I'll continue the series here.

Homers < Wins

Over the history of baseball, winning more games than you homer is not a grand accomplishment. After all, before the introduction of smaller ballparks, expansion, and the realization that chicks dig the long ball, homeruns were not celebrated like they are now. Since Babe Ruth changed the face of baseball, less and less teams have been able to win more games than their team's total output of homeruns. Almost none of them also contended for a playoff birth.

When Freddie Freeman hit his sixth homerun last week, it gave the team nine homeruns compared to just eight wins. That's the thinnest of margins and considering 66.67% of the remaining team homeruns have been shipped out with the banishment of Adonis Garcia and release of Drew Stubbs, could the Braves do something that just never happens in the modern game? Could the Braves homer fewer times than they win games?

I can't answer that, but I can say that if they did, they would be the first team in over 20 years to do so. The last team to win more games than they sent dingers flying into the seats was the 1992 Milwaukee Brewers. It was really the perfect storm for the Brew Crew that year to pull this off. Two years before, they had waved goodbye to "swing hard in case you hit it" Rob Deer. Without his steady source of power, Milwaukee needed nice homerun numbers from a pre-Coors Dante Bichette while also requiring their Hall of Fame combo of Robin Yount and Paul Molitor to not remember that they were hitting their upper 30's. None of those things happened and in 1992, Milwaukee hit just 82 homeruns, the second worst mark in the American League. Yet, they won 92 games and their 20 September wins had the Brewers just two games behind the Blue Jays with two to go. They would lose their final two games and the Jays would win the AL East, the AL Title, and...you know the rest.

By Keith Allison on Flickr
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Nick Markakis' Power Outage

In the first 832 plate appearances of a four-year, $44 million contract, Braves right-fielder Nick Markakis has nearly matched his Baltimore batting average (one point higher as a Brave) and also has maintained a statistically insignificant advantage over his OBP as an Oriole (11 points higher). In many ways, Markakis has shown no let-up when it comes to his offensive game.

Except for power, of course. No one thought Markakis would come to the Braves and hit 20 homers yearly after only doing that twice in his career (2007-08), but the expectation of more dongs was definitely higher than what the Braves have received thus far. In case you weren't aware, Markakis has homered three times as a Brave. While his gain in OBP may not be significant, his loss in slugging certainly is. As an Oriole, his ISO was .145. As a Brave, it's just .082. Now, one could argue the Braves should have seen this coming since his ISO over his final two years with the Orioles was .098, but even that would be an improvement. To bring perspective to his total of homers as a Brave, of the 51 players who have amassed 500 PA since 2000 as a Brave, only one player (Gregor Blanco) homered fewer times than Markakis. Blanco hit just one, by the way. Only one other player has three homeruns like Markakis - Tim Hudson in 250 fewer PA. None-power hitters like Melky Cabrera, Jordan Schafer, and Quilvio Veras look like Barry Bonds compared to Markakis.

He's had long homerun droughts as a Brave. His first homerun didn't come until plate appearance #396. His most recent one isn't quite as stark, but over his last 179 plate appearances dating back to when he led off September 25, 2015's game with a homerun, Markakis has just a dozen extra base hits in that time frame. All are doubles. Markakis has been productive as a Brave (105 wRC+), but it's a stretch to think he's been $44M productive.

Julio Teheran's Durability

With Bud Norris banished to the bullpen and Jhoulys Chacin traded to the Angels, Julio Teheran becomes the rotation's oldest and most experienced starter. Teheran has been amazingly durable as a professional pitcher and that has only continued as a major leaguer. Since the beginning of 2013, only six pitchers have made more starts than Teheran, who has taken the ball 104 times.

This is Teheran's Age-25 year. That's a simple way of saying what his age will be on June 30th of the season. If he picks up 22 more starts this season, he'll reach the 30 start plateau for the fourth consecutive year. Since 1990, only 16 players have done that before they turned 26. Just five reached five years of 30 GS or more by the age of 25. Only one - Felix Hernandez - had a half-dozen years of 30 GS before his 26th birthday.

Arodys Vizcaino's cFIP is Very Impressive

It's difficult for Vizcaino to find work as the Braves' closer. With so few opportunities, he has logged a lot of innings trying to keep a game tied or give the team a good inning to keep them close. He's been dominant when used - which you know if you've watched him pitch. A deep dive into his performance with Baseball Prospectus shows that he's been nearly as effective as the former Braves closer, Craig Kimbrel. So far this year, Vizzy has a cFIP, of FIP in context, of 74. That not only matches (in many less innings) Stephen Strasburg, it's not too far removed from Kimbrel's 71. DRA, or Deserved Run Average, also paints a picture of outstanding performance. When compared to their peers with 100 as league average, Vizzy has a 83 DRA-. Kimbrel's? 82. I definitely recommend further reading into both stats, but suffice it to say, each number tells us that - to this point - Vizzy has been every bit the performer the Braves traded right before the 2015 season starter. Vizzy's doing it for many millions less, by the way.

Slightly low on the number of stats for this week's stat pack, but I hope you found the ones I touched on interesting. Later this afternoon, I'll hopefully have the minor league portion of this series. (edit, here's the link.)

Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #5

With the 2016 draft less than a month away, I am going to take a look back at the Braves' drafts since 2000 with the Top 5 and Worst 5 in tandem order starting with the latter. If that is confusing, after the fifth worst draft today, the next article in this series will look at the fifth best draft. Clear enough? I hope so.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

(Dis)Honorable Mentions go to the 2006 and 2008 drafts.

5th Worst Draft Since 2000...The 2009 Draft

By LWYang on Flickr (Original version)
UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

For the first time in nearly two decades, the Braves had a Top 10 pick. It wasn't supposed to happen that way. The Braves had missed the playoffs in 2007, but had added Mark Teixeira and were hoping for a return to glory for a team with a young core of Brian McCann, Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar, and Jeff Francoeur. The problem was that John Schuerholz had neglected to build a starting rotation. He turned the team over to Frank Wren, who did acquire Jair Jurrjens, but that was not enough to piece together a winning ballclub in 2008. They would lose 90 games, guaranteeing the team a high-value pick.

With the young nucleus that now included Jurrjens and also had Jason Heyward, Tommy Hanson, and Freddie Freeman developing in the minors, a big splash with the seventh overall selection of the 2009 draft could have been a helpful springboard for the team into the future. They surrendered their 2nd round pick (56th overall) to sign Derek Lowe, which helped mute the overall value the Braves could expect from the 2009 draft. Still, with a marquee selection, the Braves could make the entire draft look good by grabbing a potential superstar.

Of course, had that happened, we wouldn't be talking about this draft as the fifth worst. The 2009 draft was an odd one for Atlanta. It was Roy Clark's last draft and Wren's second draft as general manager. The discord between the two led both to Clark's defection and an odd dynamic where neither were on the same page. Further, two years before, the draft-and-follow system had been abolished. The system, which had been big for finding value in late round picks like Hanson, allowed teams "control" over a player for nearly a full calendar year. It gave teams a long time to evaluate a player - usually after he went to junior college - before deciding whether or not to sign him. Other changes were coming with the compensation system, which seriously cut into how many picks a team was awarded. 2009 was the first draft after Type C free agents had been abolished.

That was the backdrop, but there was also an unusual focus the Braves took going into the 2009 draft. They knew they wanted pitching and they wanted it quick. The top college pitcher was Stephen Strasburg - a generational talent. That left other second-tier starters like Mike Leake, Aaron Crow, Alex White, and a lefty from Vanderbilt named Mike Minor. However, Atlanta's bread-and-butter for years was high-ceiling prep stars from the southeast and there were a pair available in Donavan Tate and Zack Wheeler. Other high school kids like pitchers Jacob Turner and Tyler Matzek were on the board.

The expectation entering the draft was that the Braves would focus on more young prep talent over the more polished college players in the draft. After all, since 2003, the Braves had taken one college player (Joey Devine) in the first round (10 total picks). But 2009 would buck the trend early and often as Atlanta played it conservative and picked Minor with the seventh overall pick. It was a shocking move, especially for a team with only two picks in the Top 100, to settle for a college star with a high floor, but limited ceiling. However, Minor came with this tagline - near major-league ready. That's what Atlanta wanted.

They would continue that trend with their second pick, third round-selection David Hale. A Princeton grad, Hale hadn't even played at a high level of college competition, but was a prime target because he was "near major-league ready." Atlanta wouldn't select their first high school kid until the tenth round, when they picked Aaron Northcraft with the 298th overall pick. In between Hale and Northcraft, they played it safe with Miami-Dade College's Mycal Jones (118th), Newberry College righty Thomas Berryhill (148th), and George Perimeter College outfielder Robby Hefflinger (208th). Atlanta surprised on-lookers again as Northcraft didn't begin a cascade of prep stars as Atlanta stuck with the college kids like Chris Masters (328th), Cory Harrilchak (418th), and even Riaan Spanjar-Fustenburg (478th). Of their first 21 picks, just two were coming out of high school. Their 21st pick was Ryan Weber, a righty out of St. Petersburg College. He would not only be the last player signed out of this draft to make it to the majors, he is the only player still with the system eight years later.

Why the obsession with college players? The Braves had a young core, a Hall of Fame third baseman, and were attempting to compete quickly rather than build a farm system. Adding college guys who could provide depth for the major league team was a way of achieving that. Further, college players typically cost less because, often, you don't have to convince them to sign rather than continue their amateur careers like you do with high school players. Atlanta saved money and felt they were adding talent that could cycle up to the major league team within a few years. Only three players did so and only Minor did it in a relatively short amount of time.

Let's focus again on the first round lefty. Suffice it to say, he had his ups and downs with the Braves. He did make it to the majors quickly and started his first game in the bigs just 14 months after being drafted. He would not establish himself for good until 2012. The next year, he began to look like a potential fixture of the Braves' organization for years with a 3.21 ERA over 32 starts. However, injuries and ineffective play would limit his 2014 before he was sidelined the entirety of 2015. He is just now beginning his rehab with the Royals' organization as he tries to get back on a major league for the first time since September 20, 2014.

Hale arrived in Atlanta in 2013 and was a regular bullpen asset in 2014, though his metrics painted a picture of a guy who was lucky to have a 3.30 ERA. The new Braves regime agreed and traded him to the Rockies for catching prospect Jose Briceno. Hale would spend most of 2015 hurt and has already been designated for assignment this season before being picked up by the Orioles, where he is pitching in AAA.

Minor did help propel the Braves to the 2014 NL East title and has the distinction of being the only Braves pitcher with a playoff win since the end of the 2011. That alone bumped this draft up to fifth worst because precious little major league talent was produced from Atlanta's safe picks. Let 2009's draft be an example on never drafting for need. Always focus on best player available. If Atlanta's spot comes up this June and they pick a high school pitcher, don't despair. They were selecting the best player available, not drafting for the need (supposedly, college-age hitters). When you sacrifice your chance at the best player available, you lose your shot at guys like A.J. Pollock (#17th overall in 2009).

At the time of the draft, Keith Law ranked the Braves' haul the fifth worst. To put their super conservative choices into context, not only did just three make it to the bigs, the Braves paid $4 million less in signing bonuses than what Strasburg got. Granted, Strasburg was again a generational talent and signed a major league deal with a $7.5 million signing bonus, but Atlanta spent under $4M to add their talent. The only plus was that they signed 20 of their first 22 picks. However, if you are going to invest in safe, college-age picks, you are doing so because their path to the majors is expected to be quick and a likely to happen. Atlanta failed at that. Their conservative drafts that followed continued this trend with two more drafts of the Wren years appearing in this countdown to come.

Like it is on the baseball field, if you don't play to win, you will lose. In 2009, the Braves should have learned that to build a productive minor league system out of the draft, you need both safe picks and high-ceiling picks. Unfortunately, too often over the next few years, that lesson was forgotten.

Cherishing Cervenka

There is some degree of luck that goes into how dominant Hunter Cervenka has been as a Brave. You don't throw 10.1 scoreless innings - spaced out over 15 games - from the moment you arrive in the majors without a little luck. You don't give up just one hit in that time frame without being on the right side of the baseball Gods. It takes great fortune to have a 5.6% line drive percentage at any point in the season. But even as we must be reserved in our expectations, Cervenka's start deserves a great deal of praise. Yet, we also much know that when things finally begin to normalize, what do the Braves actually have?

Since coming up from Mississippi in the wake of Daniel Winkler's gruesome conclusion to the 2016 season, Cervenka has been a tough puzzle for hitters to solve. For instance, 14% of the time hitters swing at one of his pitches, they miss. That's 4% over the league average, but it's par for the course since Cervenka signed with the Braves last summer. 17% of all swings were missed by hitters Cervenka faced as a Gwinnett Brave in 2015. That rate slightly increased to 19% this year with Mississippi and the league average is roughly half that. The league average describes Cervenka as a member of the Cubs organization.

As a Brave, things have changed. While it's a very small sample size, Cervenka has relied so much on his slider that he's one of the nine major league pitchers who have both thrown ten innings this year while throwing at least 45% of their pitches for sliders. Cervenka's slider is very hard on lefthanders and it's also thrown very hard. The average velocity on a slider is about 84 mph. While varied sources have Cervenka's slider charted differently, Brooks Baseball (my most trusted source) suggests that Cervenka throws about an 88 mph slider with a high-end of 90.5 mph. That's the definition of a hard slider. Unsurprisingly, the pitch currently has a 2.4 wSL/C - or it's 2.4 wins above the league average per 100 sliders.

Lately, Cervenka has been mixing in his third pitch - a curveball. This is less a concerted effort and more because he has faced an increased amount of right-handed batters. It doesn't have the dominating quality of his slider, but the off-speed delivery helps to keep players from keying in on his fastball. As Cervenka continues to perform well, he will get more opportunities to refine his curveball because of increased opportunities.

It's natural to be concerned about regression to the mean and we are promised an element of that. His expected fielding independent pitching, or xFIP, is currently 3.68 (sample size alert) while his FIP is a bit more exciting with a 2.32 mark. Again, both are warped by the sample size so we have to keep things in perspective. That said, a pair of the best tools used for predicting future success are giving us a range that - at worst - paints the picture of an effective reliever while at the top end, shines the spotlight on the possibility of Cervenka being an outstanding reliever. The truth will reveal itself as Cervenka logs more innings.

A couple of Baseball Prospectus' stats are also very kind to Cervenka. FIP in Context, or cFIP, currently is graded as an 88 for Cervenka. The stat, which uses 95-105 as the average and anything over it as below average to Bud Norris territory, means that Cervenka's 88 cFIP has been above average so far and on the cusp of greatness. DRA, or Deserved Run Average, is another good predictor of a pitcher's real performance and future ERA. For Cervenka, the mark is 3.38.

When you pool together all of the numbers, it's hard not to get too excited about Cervenka. It's as if you force yourself to remember it's just 15 games and 10.1 innings over and over. On the other hand, let's not get too bogged down with the expected regression to the mean. Cervenka will certainly allow a run at some point, but that won't change the fact that he has been an absolute find by the Atlanta Braves scouting department and coached up to unlock potential his former employers like the Red Sox and Cubs ultimately failed to see. That deserves major kudos from all involved.

Of course, since I praised him so richly, he's destined to struggle tonight. Then again, by mentioning that I expect it, the Baseball Gods will flip the script once more. I'll cross my fingers.