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Showing posts with label ErickAybar. Show all posts
Showing posts with label ErickAybar. Show all posts

Friday, May 12, 2017

What Happened? - The 2017 Braves Story (Part 1 of 2)

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
It wasn't supposed to be like this.

Even if the Atlanta Braves were not ready to be legitimate contenders for a Wild Card slot, they were supposed to a better than 11-20 through the first 31 games with a -35 score differential. People expected a team resembling the one that won 31 of its final 56 games and why not? Bonifide major league veterans like Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, and Jaime Garcia were replacing the overmatched trio of Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, and Williams Perez. The Braves were no longer trolling through former big league starter hell to unearth Roberto Hernandez and Lucas Harrell. The bullpen, which had found its way last season down the stretch, was returning all of its key parts and was supposed to have even better depth.

And the offense? They were expected to be much improved without the likes of Gordon Beckham, Erick Aybar, and A.J. Pierzynski receiving 200 PA or more.

So...what happened?

Either later this evening or tomorrow, I'll look at some pitching suggestions that might help, but for now, let's look at the offense. It is nearly impossible to produce at a solid rate when only a third of your lineup has been above-average. The opening day lineup's wOBA looks like this. See if you can pick out who's who.

.316
.217
.488
.420
.326
.316
.264
.393

A simple scale suggests a .320 wOBA is average. Ignoring what these eight player's defensive capabilities are, that is not a lineup capable of scoring many runs. By the way, that .393 at the bottom belongs to Tyler Flowers, who typically hits seventh behind Adonis Garcia. He's the guy with a .264 wOBA.

Dansby Swanson has been banished to the bottom of the lineup to try to work through his struggles. His .203 BABIP is not his fault, but a 17.3% line-drive rate is not helping matters. Ender Inciarte has stayed in the top spot every game, though. He's getting on base at a .308 clip. It's not the worst leadoff OBP in baseball. In fact, ten other players who have 50 PA in the leadoff spot are worse. It's still a contributing factor - along with Swanson's failures and Brandon Phillips's cooling down - to one of the Braves' biggest offensive issues.

To this point, the Braves have wasted having one-of-the (and some would argue the) best hitters in baseball. I'm not one to talk up the merits of the runs batted in, or RBI, statistic. Nevertheless, despite the third-best wOBA in baseball, Freddie Freeman has just 20 RBI. To this point, Freeman has played every inning of the season. Here's a stat that might be a bit shocking - 92 other players in the National League have more PA with baserunners on than Freddie Freeman. This is despite hitting in what is supposedly the top place in the lineup for run production. The only Braves regular with fewer baserunners on base than Freeman is Flowers, who, again, hits behind Adonis Garcia.

Freeman and Matt Kemp (who missed ten games earlier this season) have given the Braves a 1-2 combo that can hang with any other team in baseball, yet the Braves are 12th in runs scored in the NL because of lineup sinkholes like Garcia and Swanson, a bench incapable of providing the Braves any lift, and regulars like Phillips and Nick Markakis, who have been nice complimentary players when the Braves need better results.

The problem with the offense moving forward is that the Braves are pretty stuck with what they have. Sure, the Braves can bring up Rio Ruiz. After a slow start, Ruiz has hit a #nice .290/.348/.548 over his last 69 PA (18 games) with four doubles and as many homers. He's still platoon-limited, but so is the current third baseman for the Braves. Fortunately, Ruiz hits left-handed and Garcia bats right-handed so together, they kind of make a complete third baseman. And with 163 games at the Triple-A level, Ruiz is likely ready to sink-or-swim in the bigs.

That's the one obvious player transaction for the Braves to make. They can fiddle with the bench some (bringing back Lane Adams and/or Johan Camargo would be a start). If Swanson's struggles don't start to turn the tide soon, they could swap out the young shortstop for Camargo and let Swanson hit his way back into the bigs. Personally, I'm still not very worried about Swanson, but at this point, you can't be upset if the Braves just shake up things just to do it.

This is where I mention Ozzie Albies. I'd love to believe the 20-year-old is ready, but the results say otherwise. And that's okay. The average pitcher he's facing is seven years older than he is with much more experience. Check in again this summer.

Atlanta could also go the lineup optimization route and try to change up the order. It's not the worst idea, though repeated studies have shown lineup optimization is not nearly as important as we seem to think it ought to be. Even with that in mind, a top of the lineup with Markakis, Phillips, Freeman, Kemp, and Flowers could lead to better run production in the long run.

All in all, this offense just doesn't have the firepower to be a great offense. A streaky good one, absolutely. You also might be thinking "but Inciarte and others are bound to improve, right?" You're absolutely correct. Inciarte's BABIP is over forty points below his career average. It should improve and with it, he'll get on base more. But Tyler Flowers is unlikely to have a .478 BABIP all season - though Chris Johnson's "BABIP God" moniker is in serious trouble. Freeman is a beast, but do we really expect Kemp's BABIP to continue to float forty points over his career average? For more on BABIP and the Braves, check out Ryan Cothran's first article for Walk-Off Walk.

There's room for improvement, but there's also room for falling back to the mean. The Braves can try minor fixes (Ruiz, Adams, Camargo), but I don't foresee this offense being much better than average. Let's be clear, though. The average is much better than the recent history for the Braves. And if the Braves pitching was considerably better, that average offense would be enough to compete for a playoff spot.

So, about that pitching...

(Part 2 due either tonight or tomorrow afternoon)
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Friday, December 16, 2016

Coppy's Q&A Review

Yesterday, Atlanta Braves general manager John Coppolella conducted another of his #AskCoppy Q&A chats over twitter. These small sessions have become something of great anticipation as it provides fans a glimpse - with limited characters - into one of baseball's brightest minds. Here are some of the fascinating exchanges.
Coppy's take: The biggest changes involve the amateur draft and foreign signing rules.  Ultimately we will be as good as our scouts & player development.

My take: I pointed this out recently as I reviewed some of the ways the new CBA will affect the Braves. Coppy couldn't be more right and not only because of the team's recent focus on prospects. While there was some degree of work to re-do things in the CBA like the luxury tax and other appeasements the owners gave to the players in regards to better conditions in the clubhouse and information provided to players, the new CBA focuses the most on how much money amateur talent will receive to play in professional baseball in America.
Coppy's take: Don't do anything stupid.  We have gotten better and held our prospects.  We want to improve gradually not "win" the off-season per se.

My take: This is a very astute view on the current landscape. The Braves have publicly dipped their toes into Chris Sale and Chris Archer market, but refused to swing for the fences on Sale and do not seem inclined to do for Archer. The Braves have succeeded in "improving gradually," as Coppy alludes to. The trio of Bartolo Colon, R.A. Dickey, and Jaime Garcia won't be highly talked about in the season previews many publications put out, but the Braves don't need that. In 2016, the goal was to be better than they had been in 2015. 2017 will see a similar goal - be better than the year before.
Coppy's take: Great question.  We got an update late last week that he will be able to resume baseball activities in early January -- ahead of schedule.

My take: "Ozzie" in this case refers to, of course, Ozzie Albies. It's been four months since the middle infield prospect suffered a fractured elbow. While Coppy says that he's ahead of schedule, that must have been a conservative timeline because multiple sources reported early January as a probable jumping off point for baseball activities. Regardless, it's great to see that he's avoided any concerning setbacks. The prevailing wisdom suggests Albies is ticketed for a trip to Gwinnett to begin 2017, but if all goes well, he'll be up in the majors by the summer to give the Braves a long-term double play combo.
Coppy's take: Hate putting labels on anybody as "touchable" or "untouchable" -- will say there are about 20 guys we really want to hold & see what we have

My take: I love this answer. It's refreshingly honest. He essentially is saying guys like Albies, Sean Newcomb, and others can be had, but the Braves would much rather keep them and won't deal them unless it's the right deal. As we saw with the Sale offer, the Braves are still looking for the right deal to really go for broke - and probably won't find it. That's okay, though. As Coppy already said, "don't do anything stupid."
Coppy's take: We added Kade Scivicque late in a trade last year & he tore up Fall Lg.  Also talking w/ Alex Jackson about catching which could be huge!

My take: This was one of the most informative responses during the session. Scivicque did torch the Arizona Fall League after being a late season addition from the Tigers for Erick Aybar. He posted a .412 wOBA in the AFL. Now, that was just 39 PA and his wOBA was about a hundred points lower during the regular season, but he does have some sleeper qualities. Of more interest was the confirmation that the Braves are not ready to give up on Alex Jackson as a catcher prospect. A former sixth overall pick just two drafts ago, Jackson was a top prep star behind the plate before the Mariners moved him from behind the plate. I have not read that it was a defensive choice, but an offensive one. If Jackson's offensive profile, which was elite entering the 2014 draft, played out like the Mariners expected, they didn't want to lose him 1-2 times a week to give him rest and potentially shorten his shelf life as an offensive force. Later in the chat, Coppy mentions more directly that they will try Jackson behind this plate this spring and see how things go.
Coppy's take: No.  Of the 14 teams only 5-6 realistically would even consider trading them -- but yes I have contacted those teams.  I love the draft.

My take: He absolutely does love the draft. In the last two seasons, they acquired the 2015 #41 overall pick from the Padres, the 2015 #75th overall pick from the Diamondbacks, the the 2016 #40 overall from the Marlins via the Hector Olivera trade, and the 2016 #76th overall from the Orioles. Those picks were then used on Austin Riley, A.J. Minter, Joey Wentz, and Brett Cumberland. All four now rank in Atlanta's Top 20 Prospects in the minds of many. Very few GMs have been as aggressive in adding draft choices like Coppelella and even with the changes in draft slot money to discourage tanking, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Braves add another draft pick or two before next June.
Coppy's take: I would say Ronald Acuna, but cat is out of bag there -- maybe Cristian Pache or Bryse Wilson.

My take: Both are great choices. I recently touched on the 2016 Draft and Wilson could be a sneaky good pick out of that draft. He didn't receive a lot of fanfare, but dominated the Gulf Coast League last summer. It would not shock me to see him blitz the Appalachian League before joining Rome next summer. As for Pache, the Braves picked him up in the international signing period of 2015. He expected to be a capable center fielder and the belief was that he would develop some pop to give him a more rounded game. It didn't show last year, but he had zero issues handling both GCL and Appy Legaue pitchers. He's likely headed to Rome to begin next year and, as Coppy said, he'll be one to keep an eye on.
Coppy's take: Rio had a nice year & did a great job of conditioning.  He has a very bright future & will get opportunity along w/ Adonis.

My take: I think the Braves would love nothing more than for Ruiz to come to spring and play his way into a platoon with Garcia. Clay Davenport's metrics do not look kindly on Ruiz's D, though Garcia isn't known for his defense either. Together, the two could combine to be a 2.5 fWAR third baseman and while that's not outstanding, Braves third baseman have combined for just 3.1 fWAR the last three years. The Braves don't seem interested in adding much to this position right now. A different question in the Q&A mentioned Trevor Plouffe as a possibility, though Coppy wasn't too excited about the idea. Can't blame him for that, though. Plouffe's wOBA has fell ten points in each of the last two seasons.
Coppy's take: I've stayed in touch with Kelly throughout the off-season & spoke to him earlier this week.  Terrific talent, better person, can help us.

My take: I have a massive man crush on KJ that goes back to when he was one of the 2005 Baby Braves. Johnson has joined the Braves in each of the last two offseasons only to be dealt to the Mets the next summer. Could Johnson return for a fourth time? It may be difficult to see a spot on the bench for him - especially if the Braves want Ruiz to receive significant playing time at third base. The Braves already have Sean Rodriguez and adding KJ would force Rodriguez to either be the primary backup in center field (with the Braves not keeping a true 4th outfielder) or the primary backup at shortstop. Neither are ideal. That said, KJ could bring the team a bit more depth and open up some trading options.
Coppy's take: Stick to the plan & trust our scouts.  Biggest thing for us is upside.  We aren't going to beat Cubs, Dodgers, etc w/ nice, safe players.

My take: I love this tweet so much I want to marry it. I've spoken many times about the clear difference in drafting between Frank Wren and Coppy. One valued high-floor, depth guys who might have a little extra unearthed via the Braves' development team. The other valued high-ceiling guys who have a higher chance of busting, but also a higher chance of becoming big time performers. "Nice, safe players" like Joey Terdoslavich and Todd Cunningham might help your team, but they won't make you a contender.
Coppy's take: Lots of questions about Wieters because he's good -- never say never, but it would have to make sense for him and for us

My take: Read between the lines - we like Wieters, we'd like to sign Wieters, we don't like his price tag and/or amount of years he wants. We're talking about a guy who has played 225 games the last three years to the tune of 3.6 fWAR. His pitch framing wouldn't appear to be a fit for this team, but if there is a way a Wieters-to-ATL connection works...it might be with a one-year deal where Wieters hits free agency again next year. He'll have some competition - mainly Jonathan Lucroy - but I don't think the Braves want to go long-term with him unless he is willing to give them a deal.
Coppy's take: Great name Kyler.  AJ Minter is somebody we speak about often & likely to be a very big part of our 2017 team.  Nasty in a good way.

My take: If you don't know who Minter is just yet, learn it. His selection speaks of something I just went over - the Braves value high upside over safe picks. Selecting Minter in 2015 while knowing they wouldn't see him pitch in a game until 2016 because of Tommy John surgery was the kind of move that forward-thinking teams make. If Minter builds upon his 2016 and is able to stay healthy, he'll be in Atlanta in 2017 as Coppy mentions.
Coppy's take: Good call, Ty.  Touki has as much upside as any pitcher in our system & could be 1-2 type.  One internal comp on him is actually (Chris) Archer.

My take: Here's where I get to point out how ridiculously good Touki Toussaint was over the final couple of months. From June 7 until his final game on September 5, Toussaint had a 2.72 ERA and struck out 104 over 89.1 innings. He's still raw and needs to work on his command, but when it comes to "upside," you'd be hard-pressed to find another pitcher with a higher ceiling in this system and, for that matter, most systems in baseball.
Coppy's take: Thanks Keeley -- all will get a chance to play a lot, often at multi positions.  The versatility will help us w/ potential 8-man pen.

My take: I'm including this tweet because Coppy mentions an 8-man pen. I don't know if they will truly consider this and I really hope that they don't. With a veteran rotation, it would seem like a real waste to carry more pitchers than position players regardless of how flexible the team is position-wise.

There were many tweets I didn't touch here - including several more mentions of Chris Archer, which Tomahawk Take focused on. As a Braves blogger - and Braves fan - we are very fortunate to have a general manager willing to spend time answering questions from fans in such an open forum.
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Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Transaction Tuesday: Allard, Shae, Kinman, Pache

These moves happened between May 31 and June 6. Check out the previous week's recap.

Gwinnett Braves
Promoted (from MIS): Brad Roney...A righty out of Southern Miss in 2014, Roney is another of those exciting arms who has off-the-charts stuff, but doesn't always know where it's going. In fact, he rarely does. Last year, he struck out 70 in 48.1 innings, but also walked 35, hit six batters, and uncorked six wild pitches. More of the same this year, but the Braves are still progressing him through the system in a hurry. While no one should be compared to Craig Kimbrel, it's worth remembering Kimbrel had serious control concerns in the minors. The year before he hit the majors, Kimbrel walked 6.8 per nine. With any luck, Roney will make that leap as well.

Activated: Sean Kazmar...The veteran Gwinnett fixture had been on the paternity list for a little over a week. I had wondered if he was considering retirement, but he got back in action over the last four days. He's hitting .302 this season.

Optioned: John Gant...One of the trio of pitchers holding down the long relief role for the Braves, Gant got into a pair of games against the Dodgers last week, including a two inning stint. It was his fourth stint in the majors just this year. Gant has looked good in 43 innings with Gwinnett.

Optioned: Ryan Weber...Another part of the trio with Gant and Casey Kelly, Weber has not been able to find the magic from last year that made him a competent fifth starter toward the end of the year for the Braves.

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Rehab: Erick Aybar...Nobody needed to get away for awhile more than Aybar, who suffered a foot contusion a few weeks ago. He'll look to jumpstart his season once he is activated, though the results in Gwinnett have hardly been awe-inspiring (2-for-12, 2 SB, 2 BB, K).

Rehab: Shae Simmons...After some forearm tightness halted his rehab stint over a week ago, Simmons was able to get back in the saddle during the weekend. He opened a game with a hitless inning where he walked one batter and struck out two. So far in four rehab games, he's pitched four innings, allowed two hits, walked four, and struck out nine. The control needs to be cleaned up, but with another good rehab outing or two, he might rejoin the Braves.

Mississippi Braves
Acquired: Jed Bradley...A former first rounder out of Georgia Tech, Bradley was acquired from the Brewers for future considerations last week. In his first game, he allowed all three batters he faced to reach and each would score, giving him an ERA of infinity with Mississippi. The lefty was a Top 100 prospect heading into 2012, but that was a long time ago.

Activated: Kyle Kinman...A pair of DL trips have limited Kinman, who briefly became a potential option for the major league team toward the end of spring training. Lefties can't hit him, but can he progress against righties? With a wide-open bullpen situation in Atlanta, Kinman could get a look sooner rather than later.

Promoted (from MIS), Demoted: Steve Janas...After just a game in Gwinnett where he retired all six batters he faced, Janas returned to Mississippi. He's had a surprisingly good season after being moved from the starting rotation to the pen this year. He doesn't get K's, but also doesn't walk batters. It's difficult to see him as a prospect for the future, but he might have a chance to surprise.

Released: Danny Burawa...Things have gone from bad-to-worse-to-cut for Burawa this season. After a dozen games in the bigs last year for the Braves, Burawa entered spring with a chance to win a spot in the bullpen. He struggled early and was one of the first players crossed off. He went down to Gwinnett, but couldn't find the strikezone. A trip to Mississippi did little to help and after the Braves acquired Bradley, Burawa was cut to open up a spot.

Carolina Mudcats
Demoted (from GWI): Stephen Gaylor...Wherever you need him, Gaylor is there. Whether it's one game in Rome or another game in Gwinnett, Gaylor will be ready. For the most part, though, he's played in Carolina for 36 games where he's slashing .232/.347/.263 with 10 steals.

Demoted (from GWI): David Peterson...A righty out of the 2012 draft, Peterson was struggling very badly for Gwinnett to open the year. In 17.2 innings, he had been charged 18 earned runs, surrendered three homers, and walked 14. In his defense, four were intentional. A far cry from his 2015, where he had a 2.28 ERA in 51.1 innings as he climbed from Carolina to Gwinnett. A move to Carolina could help take the pressure off and get him jumpstarted.

Rome Braves
Promoted (from GCL): Kolby Allard...The expectation was that we wouldn't see Allard until later this month with Danville, but the 18 year-old first-rounder started his first game of the year yesterday with Rome. The results weren't so good, but it was great to see Allard get his season going with a game in Rome either way. The Braves will be very cautious with Allard and it wouldn't surprise me to see him head to Danville when their season begins.

Danville Braves
Demoted (from ROM): Adam McCreery...Early results were not overwhelming for McCreery, who gave up six runs (three earned) in 3.1 ING. He was moved down the ladder to make room for Allard.

Demoted (from CAR): A.J. Minter...I've yet to see an explanation for this move. Minter had thrown 10 innings over 7 games with Rome and Carolina before not appearing in a game for a week and getting reassigned to Danville. Theoretically, if it were an injury, Minter would have been DL'd. Maybe it was an innings deal?

GCL Braves
Promoted (from DSL): Anthony Concepcion...The following several moves were DSL guys from last year who were promoted to GCL to begin the year. Concepcion was a good bat last year, though he was a bit old for the league. He slashed .308/.410/.451 with 5 HR and 12 SB while splitting time between 1B and LF. I would have liked a more aggressive move to Danville.

Promoted (from DSL): William Contreras...A catcher, Contreras hit well last year in the DSL at just 17 years-old. He was part of the group of free agents the Braves added in the winter after changing general managers and scouting directors.

Promoted (from DSL): Luis Mejia...An infielder who turned 19 a few months ago, Mejia on-based .376 with the help of a 29 BB/25 K rate over 60 games. A little undersized, it's difficult to foresee the switch-hitter developing much power.

Promoted (from DSL): Luis Mora...Good to see Mora get a promotion after two years in the DSL. He had zero control in 2014, but turned it around in a big way in 2015 as one of the Braves' more dependable starters. A right-hander, he went form more walks than strikeouts to a 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate in the span of a season. He turns 21 in a little more than a week.

Promoted (from DSL): Christian Pache...One of two big international pickups (Derian Cruz is the other), it's good to see that the Braves think enough of Pache to skip him past the DSL. Pache was ranked 11th by Fangraphs among the 2015 International Class. He's expected to have the skills to stick in center with a chance to hit for a high average with good power.

Promoted (from DSL): Ramon Taveras...Like Mora, Taveres pitched two seasons in the DSL before earning a trip state-side. A full-time reliever, Taveras's control improved tremendously a year after walking 11 in 14 innings as Taveras walked just six in 34.1 innings last year. He doesn't have gaudy K numbers, but the righty's improvement will keep him around for a third season.

Promoted (from DSL): Randy Ventura...No Brave had a bigger year in the DSL than Ventura, who swiped 55 bases in just 58 games last year with 35 walks to 27 strikeouts. A car accident ended his year prematurely, but if back, he'll get a chance to show that he has an encore in him. I ranked him 25th in my Top 50 before the season. His production early will go a long way toward keeping that spot.

Promoted (from DSL): Bredio Vega...A tall righty out of Panama, Vega struggled in the DSL last year especially early, but started to turn the corner over his last eight games. He K'd 13 in 13.2 innings while walking six. A reliever with good velocity, Vega could be a fun name to watch when the Gulf Coast League season opens.

DSL Braves
Too many moves to list as the Dominican Summer League rosters were set for the beginning of the season.
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Saturday, June 4, 2016

Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Mallex, Flowers, Teheran, Vizzy

Back by no demand is this week's Saturday Stats Pack. Later on this afternoon, expect a minor league version of this series. Just a reminder that when I use Baseball-Reference Play Index, the data goes back to 1913 in many cases.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons
A Different 20/20 Club

No one doubts that Mallex Smith is a fast baserunner, but with a 50% stolen base rate in his first 14 attempts, he has been as much of a problem when taking off as he has been an asset. It got me thinking - what is the most stolen base attempts by a player with a 50% success rate? That honor belongs to George Grantham in 1924, who was caught in half of his 42 attempts. Grantham would never again steal more than 14 bases. Perhaps his manager thought "that'll do." Grantham's 50% mark in at least 40 attempts isn't the worst in history, by the way. That distinction belongs to Pat Duncan, who, in 1922, was caught in 28-of-40 attempts for the Reds.

Another Power Outage Note

Currently, 18 players have at least 100 plate appearances in 2016 and have hit zero homeruns. 22%, or four total, have done their lack of damage with the Braves. They include Erick Aybar, Ender Inciarte, A.J. Pierzynski, and Daniel Castro. If he gets 31 more at-bats before homering, Chase d'Arnaud has a chance to make it five. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

 Tyler Hits It Hard, Not High

If you are looking for bright spots this year for the Braves, you would find one in Tyler Flowers. While he has had to share time with Pierzynski because the Braves hate nice things, Flowers has slashed .253/.360/.347 in 111 PA. If that doesn't seem great to you, it's probably because it really isn't. If it does seem great to you, then you are probably a Braves fan and you realize that a .708 OPS places Flowers among the top hitters on the team. Flowers has also done a great job putting velocity on the ball. No other Brave can match his 94.3 mph average exit velocity, good for a spot in the Top 20 in baseball using MLB Statcast. However, with a level swing, Flowers rarely puts a lot of air under the ball. The average launch angle is just 7.1 feet while the average height is 26 feet, marks that are backed up by just a 31.7% flyball rate. But who cares when he has a 20% line-drive rate?

 You Had One Job!

Ian Krol's call-up was met with eye-rolling, but so far - so good. Yes, righties are teeing off him, but the one job Krol was supposed to fill this season after being acquired in the Cameron Maybin deal was to get out lefthanders. In a division with Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, and Christian Yelich among others - having a player capable of neutralizing those big boys to some degree is a must. Krol has done that since being called up from Gwinnett. Of the 20 lefties he has faced, only three have reached first base safely (two singles and a HBP). Eight have struck out. Krol might never develop into a true full-inning reliever, but there's always room in a bullpen for a LOOGY.

 Teheran's Unusual "Wildness"

Baseball is a quirky game with a collection of stats - some more enlightening than others. One of the least-informative stats might be wild pitches. At a quick glance, it might tell us that the pitcher is prone to wildness, but that's not always the case. Take Julio Teheran, who has thrown a half-dozen wild pitches so far this year. That not only ties him with Pittsburgh's Jon Niese for the most wild pitches in the National League, but Teheran's six wild pitches tie his career record coming into 2016. Not his personal high, but his total of wild pitches in over 600 innings before 2016. Is Teheran struggling with the zone? Not really. His 2.7 BB/9 is right in tune with his career average and his zone rating of 50.3% (PITCHf/x) is as well. But baseball is weird sometimes so instead of a pitch in the dirty getting away from the catcher with nobody on, now there is a runner on and that player advances.

Arodys Time

I am a huge fan of Arodys Vizcaino. Maybe it's because he's the best reliever Atlanta has and nobody else on the team can match his nastiness on the mound. Whatever the reason, I get excited when I see him pitch. Yet, I still am surprised when I look at the MLB Statcast leaderboard and see just where Vizzy's stuff ranks compared to the rest of the league. Nobody throws a harder two-seam fastball than Vizzy's 98.2 mph average velocity heater. It's the third fastest pitch in baseball in terms of average pitch and carries an average spin rate of 2,358 rpm, which compares well to the best pitches in the league. His four-seamer isn't so shabby either (97.3 average mph & 2,418 rpm).

That's it for this week. Hope you enjoyed.
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Friday, May 27, 2016

"It feels like every move has backfired."

By Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr (Original
version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons
Today, The Hardball Times published an article by Alex Remington titled "How to Lose Fans and Alienate People: The 2016 Atlanta Braves." It's a long look into the current team, with many fans chiming in with their assorted disappointment. "I hate these guys," one suggests. "You wonder if they know what they're doing," ponders another. And then there is Jim Tremayne, "the editor of DJ Times magazine," who says, "It feels like every move has backfired."

Fans are fanatical because they love the team hard and let their failures cloud their judgement. It's easy to focus on the negative especially when you are essentially writing a column about how awful things are right now. But there is little thought given to the other side of things during the column. Actually, that's wrong. There is NO thought given to what the Braves are doing outside of the things that aren't working.

I get it. A lot of bad things occurring together makes it difficult at times to support the franchise. The move to Cobb County was a curious one given Turner Field's age and the location of the new ballpark, but on the other hand, is anyone making an argument that Turner Field was a benefit for the Braves? Not really. Instead, we are given the old standby that a team from that city should be based in that city. The Giants and Jets don't even play in the state of New York, but somehow, no one cares about that.

The article focuses so much on the negative, but where it really loses me when it suggests that "fans who have been with the team for years may not be with them" when they do start to win and fill up Suntrust again. While certainly some have given up on the Braves for good, most fans will forget their misgivings over this rebuild when the team wins. Every rebuilding team makes the bet that they may struggle with attendance and might even lose some fans in the process, but the result will be worth it. Do you need to watch how fans passionately followed the Royals last fall for that to ring true?

One other small tangent before I focus on my bigger theme. One fan, Chris Nicholson, said that he thought "Bobby Cox cried the day he traded Dale Murphy. Well, okay! That’s my general manager. He feels the way I feel. I think [GM John] Coppolella traded Simmons to show everyone he could do it." Ignoring the absurdity of the last point - and that Remington repeats it - what is ignored is that people are far more cynical than they once were. Since Cox's trade of Murphy and the alleged tears that followed, our society has lived through a Strike, a steroid scandal, the rise of sabermetrics, and that doesn't even get into the things that have robbed us of much of our innocence unrelated to baseball. We don't expect the general manager of our team to cry when he makes a trade. We expect him to do his job and build a better team. By the way, the trade of Simmons does that, but we'll get back to that, I'm sure.

Let's focus on the one quote that really prompted to write this diatribe. "It feels like every move has backfired."

Disclaimer: I certainly realize that the statement is a generalization. It's an exaggeration of events built upon the Braves' failures this year. But that doesn't excuse the statement, only explain it away.

Has every move backfired? Last fall, I went over the many trades of John Hart's first year when he was "in charge." Of course, John Coppolella was mostly responsible for engineering the trades, but Hart had final say. Did trading Jason Heyward and Justin Upton backfire? It made the Braves worse in 2015, but it requires a leap of faith to believe that the Braves would have been able to scratch together a competent rotation to make having Heyward and Upton worthwhile in 2015. Have the deals backfired? Well, Shelby Miller was wonderful for the Braves and was cashed in for three highly valuable players (the article only mentions Aaron Blair and not in a positive light). Mallex Smith is the current starting leftfielder for the Braves from the Upton trade and while we still need to see if the other two prospects from the trade take off (Max Fried and Dustin Peterson), it is difficult to accept that either trade backfired for the Braves. Instead, they have helped the Braves.

Did the Evan Gattis trade backfire? Only if you believe Gattis should be a major league full-time catcher.

How about the Craig Kimbrel move? Matt Wisler's advancement this year and the dominance of Arodys Vizcaino (another trade acquisition) makes that clear. The trade also produced a draft choice, which Atlanta used to draft Austin Riley, and another player in Jordan Paroubeck, who Atlanta later traded for international bonus slots to avoid penalties for their two top pickups last summer from the international signing period.

The better question should be - what moves HAVE backfired? The Hector Olivera one, certainly. And?

Keeping Fredi Gonzalez around? I don't believe that holds water, but I'm struggling to come up with another move that really backfired. You could argue, as the article does, that it's the Andrelton Simmons trade that has backfired based on the play of Erick Aybar. But that implies the trade was made for Aybar, which it wasn't. Was Simmons' contract team-friendly as the article suggests? The point is debatable. From a WAR standpoint, certainly. But the Braves were on the hook for an additional $53 million through 2020 for a player who had hit .252/.301/.357 over his first three full seasons. Certainly, watching Aybar totally forget how to play baseball has been rough, but paying Simmons $6M this year to make a tremendous amount of outs and $47M for the next four years does little to help, either. Oh, and the Braves picked up two good pitching prospects in the trade.

The Braves of 2016 wouldn't have had Heyward and Upton, would be paying large amounts of money to Kimbrel and Melvin Upton, and still would be bad. The only real difference between that hypothetical Braves team and the current one is that the latter actually has a future. Sure, buying heavy into Olivera was a mistake - though it could be made better by whoever Atlanta drafts with the choice they acquired last July from the trade. Bringing back A.J. Pierzynski might have backfired, though adding Tyler Flowers didn't. And neither has - to this point - adding Gordon Beckham. Bringing back Jim Johnson and Eric O'Flaherty - yuck - but those moves get massively overshadowed by the additions of Dansby Swanson and Sean Newcomb to the organization.

Alex Remington sought to talk specially about the major league team in 2016. The problem is that focusing solely on the 2016 team misses the point. The Braves aren't trying to be good in 2016. They are trying to build a long-term successful team that can generate not just talent from their minor leagues each year, but impact talent. I agree that the team built is largely unwatchable. Some of that is awful luck, some of it was bad decisions. Mostly, however, it's that the focus of the organization is currently not on building a competitive major league team. We knew that coming in 2016. Teams interested in being a .500 squad or competing for a Wild Card spot don't include signing Emilio Bonifacio or Jeff Francoeur as their big free agent pickups.

The key to watching the 2016 team is to ignore the win-loss record and focus on the future. If you are going to ignore the minor leagues, that becomes increasingly difficult, but you can still watch Wisler and get excited. You can rejoyce when Mike Foltynewicz throws a good game and "gets it" a bit more. You can watch Vizcaino finally realize his potential that made the Yankees excited about him all those years ago. Julio Teheran is having a solid bounceback campaign and Ender Inciarte is a keeper. Oh, and you have to know that Mallex Smith is going to be better at swiping bases than we have seen so far.

"Diehards" may hate this team right now and certainly it's difficult to watch every game.

A rebuild happened. Whether it was right or not can be questioned, but once the rebuild started, losing perspective on why moves were made will only makes things worse. The Heyward trade was not made for 2016. Neither was the Justin Upton trade, the Gattis move, or even the Simmons trade. If you are a casual fan or even a "diehard" that doesn't consider why the moves were made and what the future can bring, you will hate the team more than you need to.

That's okay, though. More times than not, they come back when the winning does. Jim Tremayne and Chris Nicholson may hate the team right now, but the smart money is on them cheering as loudly as anyone when the winning comes.
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Saturday, March 12, 2016

Full Analysis on the Braves Cuts Today

Saturday appears to be cut day for the Atlanta Braves. Last Saturday, the big takeaways were David Carpenter and Ryan Kelly being released from the organization. Today, a few releases and a number of players being optioned or reassigned. If you are unsure about the difference, if a player is on the 40-man roster, he must be optioned to the minors. Reassigned is the technical number for minor league free agents that are being sent to the minor league camp. Where they ultimately start the season will be decided later. All told, 14 players were cut from the major league camp and 49 players remain from the 70 that opened camp.

Released:
Kyle Kendrick - Many of us groaned when Kendrick's signing was announced last New Year's Eve. He was coming off an ugly season with the Rockies and had been average or worse during his entire career. Adding another sinker baller who gives up too many homeruns was not exactly awe-inspiring. Fortunately, Kendrick looked awful in two starts to open his camp run. Meanwhile, Jhoulys Chacin, who was signed shortly before Kendrick, has looked pretty good. Kendrick's release doesn't make Chacin a lock to make the roster, but it certainly helped his case.

Chris Volstad - Signed shortly after the 2015 season concluded for the Braves, Volstad was a long shot even before the additions of Kendrick and Chacin (let alone the other players acquired this offseason). He looked destined for a trip to AAA, but he pitched just as poorly as Kendrick. Actually, he was worse considering Kendrick was starting the games so he was facing more major league regulars. With so many pitchers in-house, Volstad pitched his way out of the organization.

Optioned to Gwinnett:
Danny Burawa - One of the ex-Yanks acquired by the organization after adding Gordon Blakely in October of 2014, Burawa appeared in a dozen games with the Braves (and one awful one with the Yankees) last season. He had decent control at the beginning of his career, but it has regressed since injuries wiped out nearly his entire 2012 season. He has flashed strikeout potential, though his numbers fell a bit last season. Already 27, his window is rapidly closing.

Daniel Castro - Unlike the three names I've gone over so far, Castro actually looked decent this spring, but the numbers were against him. He stole some time at second base last year against lefties to shield the struggling Jace Peterson, but offseason acquisitions made him an afterthought. He'll remain in the "first person up" slot until better prospects overtake him for that, too. Castro's best chance at getting back to the majors in the short-term future is an injury/trade of Erick Aybar. He's fairly smooth in the field, but just doesn't have the bat to stick.

Tyrell Jenkins - About the time Jenkins was optioned, he tweeted, "trust the process, embrace the struggle, and keep pushing!" Jenkins was a bit of an early camp name as he impressed the coaches with some mechanical adjustments. He only helped his stock in camp, but he started below a lot of names and just didn't have the time to push his way up the depth chart. He pitched well last year and will have a shot to build on his success. If he can improve his K/BB numbers, he'll be in the majors very soon. He won't turn 24 until July.

Casey Kelly - Acquired in the Christian Bethancourt trade, Kelly has logged 40.1 innings in the majors since 2012 with little success. As recently as 2013, he was a perennial Top 100 prospect, but injuries and poor play have limited him to 196 innings since the end of 2011. Braves are taking a chance on Kelly and despite making his debut in 2012, this is only his second option year. What will be interesting to see as the Gwinnett season opens is if Kelly will be used as a starter or reliever. San Diego began to convert him to the latter last year.

Optioned to Mississippi:
Mauricio Cabrera - He's been the "talk of the camp" in back-to-back springs with his triple-digit velocity, but the same old story remains. Can he throw his pitches for strikes? Five years into his minor league career, we have rarely seen him do that. This is only his Age-22 season and the Braves made the wise decision to shift him to the pen full time last year. As always, he'll be fun to watch, but until the results begin to even come close to the potential, he'll be stuck in neutral.

Reassigned:
Chase d'Arnaud - When he signed around Thanksgiving, the chances of making the Braves were much better, but free agent signings since then have killed whatever hope d'Arnaud had of making this roster. He'll now try to hang on at AAA and hope some bad luck for others gets him back to the majors, where he holds a career .225 wOBA in 175 PA with a -0.6 fWAR.

Chris Ellis - Considered a bit more polished that the higher ranked prospect he was acquired with in the Andrelton Simmons trade, Ellis looked solid in A+ ball last year, but fell apart after a midseason promotion to AA-Arkansas. While Ellis has a more polish in that he shows a decent idea on how to get the ball into the strikezone, he seems to struggle with keeping his mechanics straight on the mound along with just having a feel for the moment. If he is able do that, he could max out as a bottom-of-the-rotation arm or decent reliever.

Nate Freiman - A Rule 5 guy in 2013, Freiman showed a decent hit tool that season with little power. He followed that up by showing decent power, but no hit tool in '14. Last year, he was stuck in AAA and continued to decline across the board. Freiman flashed some good power and on-base skills back in the day, but he's an AAAA bat at this point and maybe not even that. With few players pushing for time at first base in AAA, Freiman looks like he'll get some good playing time if he hits at all.

David Holmberg - He's been in the majors each of the last three years and this is the progression of his FIP - 5.48, 7.57, 8.60. In his defense, that only comes out to 62 total innings, but that's still damn awful. He's been used as a starter primarily and could be in line for that at Gwinnett, though it wouldn't surprise me to see him in AA for depth reasons.

Sean Newcomb - Often ranked as high as #2 in the Braves system, Newcomb has all the potential in the world to be a frontline starter. He could fail to reach that and still become a dynamite reliever. His velocity comes from a low-energy delivery which could bold well for his future. But he can't depend on his heater as he advances and needs his secondary pitches to become better. How much advancement comes with those pitches will decide just how good Newcomb becomes.

Rio Ruiz - Other prospects had a better spring so far, but Ruiz showed off a confident swing and caught some eyes. That's important for a player that took a step backwards in 2015 after his wOBA fell 50 points. Ruiz definitely has a fan in the organization in the form of Kiley McDaniel, who ranked him #43rd in his Top 100 heading into 2015, and has since taken a position with the Braves. Ruiz has the skillset to stay at third base and if his bat rounds into his form, he could develop into a Kyle Seager type who trades a little of the power for better walk rates. While much of the Third Baseman of the Future hype is attached to Austin Riley - and deservedly so - Ruiz is closer and can take the position if he turns the corner.

Madison Younginer - He was brought in for depth and has been pretty decent-to-average during his minor league career. He's only throw 3.2 innings above AA so a decent run at AAA is needed for the 25 year-old first. He has very good sinking movement on his pitches and can be tough to elevate the ball against. If he can find success at AAA, he'll be in the same camp as some of the guys who got bullpen looks for the Braves last year. If he gets a look, he'll have to take advantage of it, though.
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Tuesday, March 8, 2016

Trade Erick Aybar? Why not?

Stacy Revere/Getty Images
Could the Atlanta Braves consider dealing away one of their projected starters and likely #2 hitter before 2016 even begins?

It seems unlikely, but Dave Cameron of Fangraphs thinks the Braves might be a suitable trading partner for the St. Louis Cardinals. The NL Central power is a top contender (again), but just lost shortstop Jhonny Peralta with a thumb injury that could keep him out June or maybe even July. That is a significant amount of the season and while the Cardinals have an option, moving Jedd Gyorko into the starting lineup could be both problematic at the plate and in the field if his -17.5 UZR/150 over 220 innings at shortstop last year is a sign of things to come. St. Louis also has a few kids who might be a better fit as Cameron's colleague at Fangraphs, Jeff Sullivan, argues.

If the Cards look for an outside-the-organization solution, the Braves could come bearing gifts - notably, Erick Aybar. The former Angels shortstop was acquired this offseason in the Andrelton Simmons trade and from the get-go, the prevailing wisdom was that Aybar wouldn't last the whole year in Atlanta. With the organization knee-deep in a rebuild, the 32 year-old Aybar seemed like a questionable fit even before you take into account his pending free agency after the 2016 season. Of course, somebody's got to play shortstop for the Braves and Aybar is a perfectly good shortstop, but why keep him for a year when you can trade him for an asset or assets you can control beyond 2016?

Before we even consider who the Braves would go to in the event of an Aybar trade, let's consider what the Braves might be looking for. All of the reasons that the Braves might be so open to a trade also work against any package the Braves could receive. While they can play hardball, Atlanta has a player on the back end of his career who will be a free agent next winter. His numbers are declining both at the plate and in the field and the Cardinals don't even need to hack any other team's information to grasp that.

If another team or teams were interested in Aybar, it could help Atlanta's position, but considering how long it took for Jimmy Rollins and Ian Desmond to find work, shortstop is not a position with a lot of buyers right now.

What could the Braves be looking for? At best, the Braves might be able to pillage an organizational Top 10 talent like shortstop Edmundo Sosa or right-hander Junior Fernandez. The former just turned 20 and will be making his full-season debut this season. He's shown good pop and a decent all-around game, though his defense may mandate a switch later to second base. In the meantime, he will add to the glut of middle infield prospects for the Braves. He won't be mentioned in the same breath as Dansby Swanson or Ozhaino Albies, but is he better than Johan Camargo? I'd say so. Fernandez is a Dominican with triple digit heat and pretty good control despite a delivery that is max effort. The latter might push Fernandez into a bullpen role where he projects to have high-leverage bullpen stuff.

Again, that's the high end and what the Braves would cross their fingers for. In the (likely) event that the Cards balk, the Braves will be seeking sleeper prospects who have a plus tool or maximize their abilities. A guy like Corey Littrell could work. He's from the school of John Gant/Robert Whalen/Andrew Thurman - starters the Braves have acquired who have a feel for what they are doing on the mound, but won't rank high in prospect ranks because their stuff isn't overwhelming.

Bruce Caldwell is interesting from a utility role perspective and has bounced between 2B and 3B for much of his career, though he's played a little in the corner outfield positions and seems like the last guy in to pitch an inning if needed. Converted catcher and current outfielder Anthony Garcia hit a ton last year (.283/.391/.477 in 105 games). He's been around for awhile and the Cards are packed in the outfield. Another lefty, David Oca, hasn't received a lot of press and has just 3.1 innings above rookie ball so far, but comes with some video game stats (0.2 HR/9, 2.3 BB/9, 9.2 K/9).

If the Braves and the Cards did deal, what would the Braves do about their shortstop position? Atlanta is blessed with a lot of guys who can play shortstop, but do you really want them to? Jace Peterson and Emilio Bonifacio would likely jump to the front of the line, though Daniel Castro might get an extended look because he's an actual shortstop. The Braves could also aggressively seek to acquire a shortstop toward the end of spring training from players who are either out-of-options or on the losing end of a competition.

While it's tough to believe Atlanta would trade Aybar right now, the Braves have certainly proved that if you offer the right package, there's not a player the Braves won't consider dealing. Could Aybar be next? That all depends on what the Cardinals - and any other team - are willing to surrender.
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