Reaction: John Coppolella Resigns in Disgrace

For three years, John Coppolella was treated as a wunderkind. The Notre Dame graduate who had cut his teeth in the Yankees organization before coming south, Coppolella represented a new era for the Atlanta Braves. He seemed ultra-capable in fleecing other teams of prospects and draft choices while also bringing together a talented group of scouts and assistants to comb the globe for new talent. Under his leadership, the Braves' scouting department flourished and with his background in statistical analysis, he seemed like the perfect blend of the traditional mindset and more modern approach. Coppolella gave Braves fans hope. Coppolella convinced fans to trust the process.

Around one in the afternoon on Monday morning, that trust was irrevocably broken as Coppolella resigned from his position in disgrace. While details are currently sketchy, we do know that under Coppolella, the Braves ran afoul of "rules regarding the international player market." Others have suggested domestic spending in the draft may also be involved. In addition, as Jeff Passan tweeted, "Coppolella's treatment of Braves employees" was also put under the microscope. Maybe we shouldn't have been so surprised.

It was a little more than a month ago that Ken Rosenthal penned a piece for The Atlantic about the level of discord in the Braves' front office. At the time, it seemed limited to problems between Coppolella and Hart on one side and the old guard of John Schuerholz and his guys on the other. However, the issues in the front office went beyond that as we found out today. With the general manager now out of the way, the narrative changed from the local stories of how capable Coppolella was to the tweets many national writers were not writing before the news broke. With Coppolella in charge, people like Rosenthal and Passan couldn't unleash their observations on the character of Coppolella because they needed him for quotes and news. With him gone, the tweets began to come out in droves of how poorly thought-of by the industry Coppolella was and how no one was sad to see him go.

Some of that could be sour grapes. After all, Coppolella did fleece many general managers. However, it seems to go deeper than that and it appears like Coppolella - for all of his good qualities - rubbed many people the wrong way. This is not unlike the man he basically replaced in Frank Wren and it's amazing that their dismissals carry much of the same narrative, though Wren's firing was far more simplistic and seems much more contained. Wren was hated by many people close to the Braves. Coppolella was hated by seemingly the industry he worked in. As Passan pointed out, the news about Coppolella brought "a lot of schadenfreude right now."

There were will be much more detailed reporting to come in regards to what the Braves did under Coppolella and retrospectives of his time with the Braves, but the striking thing to me is that a guy who was regarded as such a capable general manager might never work in a baseball front office again. Again, you can compare this to Wren. He found work. He may have burned every bridge possible in Atlanta, but he was still respected outside of the south. Coppolella seems outright loathed.

The word many used to describe Coppolella was "relentless." That aided him - and the Braves - in an organizational reset that saw Justin Upton, Jason Heyward, Evan Gattis, and Craig Kimbrel traded within months of Wren's removal. That was followed up by moving Andrelton Simmons and Shelby Miller, bold moves to bring in a higher-class of talent than the Braves had been able to acquire in the trades the previous winter. However, his relentless "make this happen" approach also led to deals for Hector Olivera and wasting Kimbrel's value just to get rid of Melvin Upton Jr. Coppolella was creative, that much is true. But he wasn't perfect - even when the Atlanta-area media (or bloggers like myself) made it sound like he was.

Moving forward, the Braves have what could be a highly-coveted position available should other general managers not shy away due to the questions regarding whatever punishments should await the Braves. The best case scenario is that the Braves pay fines and possibly have restrictions put on them in the international and/or domestic markets. The worst case? The Braves get all of those restrictions and fines plus lose prospects - maybe even Kevin Maitan, according to Passan's latest article. While details remain fuzzy, the fact Coppolella resigned leads me to brace for the worst. Similar to a college program giving player under-the-table benefits, the Braves may have done the same with Maitan which could force Major League Baseball to bring the hammer down. Passan also sheds light on some possible negotiating issues the Braves had with Drew Waters after selecting the outfielder this offseason. According to the report, some benefits were offered to Waters to make up in the difference between the signing bonus he received and the slot value he could have received. Both prospects rank among the top handful of position prospects currently in the Braves' system and there's a possibility these players are the tip of the iceberg.

The chance of dealing with sanctions from this mess awaits the next general manager, whoever that might be. Some have suggested Dayton Moore is a natural fit and he kind of always has been. Had he not left before Schuerholz's retirement, it likely would have been Moore and not Wren who got the keys to the castle. Perhaps Coppolella never rises to the top in the Braves' organization and perhaps we never live the darkest timeline. The good news is that even if the worst case scenario awaits the Braves, the system will continue to be stocked with talent - even if they lose some of their best ones.

Braves fans - and I consider myself one - found it easy to like Coppolella especially if you could trust the process. He marketed himself well, something that may have made it even easier for rival general managers to hate him. Whether it was candid interviews or through lengthy Q&A's with Braves fans, referred to as #AskCoppy, the former Braves general manager was far less reserved than most general managers who often only spoke during press conferences in a rehearsed manner. Zealous, but also patient, Coppolella built a collection of young talented envied throughout the game.

It was easy, with Coppy reassuring us, to trust the process. It'd work out.

It's almost ironic. This was finally the first year that we began to see the fruits of Coppolella's labor play out. Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson up the middle. Rio Ruiz and Johan Camargo at third. Luiz Gohara, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, and Max Fried all starting games for the team in September. A.J. Minter coming out of the pen. And the best was yet to come as Ronald Acuna, Mike Soroka, and Kolby Allard all appear primed to appear in the majors in 2018. The process is getting closer and closer to bringing success to a city starving for their baseball team to once again be among the game's elite.

And it still should be that way. The Braves are still on the rise. The Nationals will still have to worry about the Braves in the coming years. None of that has changed. In their beautiful new ballpark, the Atlanta Braves will be contenders sooner rather than later.

It just won't be with the guy who helped make it happen anymore.

A.J. Minter's Climb is Complete

We can thank J.B. Moss for this freak out.

Moss, a former Braves farmhand who was released earlier this season just a year after being selected in the seventh round, took to twitter last night to say this:

My best friend is headed to THE SHOW!!!!! (I'll let you guess who it is till it comes out) LETSSSSS GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!

— JB Moss (@J_Moss11) August 23, 2017

It did not take long for Braves fans to make a connection. Before he was drafted by the Braves, Moss was a big part - when healthy of the Texas A&M baseball program. In 2015, Moss played in 52 games for the #13th ranked Aggies. Also on that team, before he went down with injury, was A.J. Minter. He was dominant over four starts in what was supposed to be a big move to the rotation after 40 K's in 37.1 relief innings the previous two years.

U.S. Air Force photo by Airman Shawna L. Keyes

That injury I spoke of? Of course, it's the Braves so you know what follows an injury to a pitcher - Tommy John surgery. It quickly eliminated of any hope of Minter being a first round selection, but the Braves were still very interested in the lefty. Brian Bridges, the Braves scouting director, was interested in Minter with the #28 pick before the injury. Ultimately, they grabbed Mike Soroka there. When their competitive balance draft choice, the #75th overall selection came around - a pick they gained by trading outfield prospect Victor Reyes to the Diamondbacks at the start of the season that year - the Braves could wait no longer. In addition to Soroka, they had selected prep stars Kolby Allard, Austin Riley, and Lucas Herbert. Now, they were getting the cherry on the top - Alex Jordan Minter.

The Braves knew Minter's 2015 was done. But while they figured their top selections would need plenty of time to mature and develop, Minter was seen as a guy who could shoot up the system once healthy. There was some internal debate whether he projected better as a starter or reliever. Much of that depended on a changeup that was fringy at best. Perhaps it wasn't a bad pitch, but when your heater and slider are that good (and they are), any average pitch will look that much worse. Less than two weeks after his selection, Minter signed for $814,300, or the assigned slot for the #75th pick.

There was a great deal of anticipation related to Minter's debut. The 2015 draft class was shaping up as the Braves' top class in years and that was before Minter had thrown a pitch. Atlanta refused to push the kid, though, and even though he made his debut on May 5 of last year with Rome and stayed healthy throughout the year, Minter would only pitch 31 times between that first game and the end of the season. He never had less than two days between games and threw over 20 pitches just seven times. Nevertheless, Minter flashed the potential that made Bridges want to spend a high-value first rounder on him before his injury. With Rome, he toyed with the South Atlantic hitters, allowing just two hits, a walk, and striking out six over 6.2 innings. After just a handful of games, he received his first promotion. It wouldn't be his last of the year.

With Carolina, Minter continued to show that he was too advanced for A-ball. Over eight games and 9.1 innings, he gave up just three hits and walked four. In the process, he struck out ten. With 13 games in the tank and 16 innings overall, Minter had not allowed an extra-base hit, walked just five batters, and struck out 16. He retired his Mudcats jersey and took his talents to Pearl, Mississippi. Finally, Minter was given at least a challenge. He gave up a double and a run in his second outing. On August 24, he had his worst outing of the year, surrendering four runs on two singles and two walks while failing to finish at least one inning of work for the first time all year. Those two outings were the only times all season he was scored upon. In 18 games with Mississippi, he gave up those five runs and walked six, but struck out 31. He went on a strikeout binge between July 9 and July 18. He faced 15 batters. Only one of them got a hit (that double I mentioned earlier). All 12 outs were recorded via the strikeout.

It was the kind of dominance that makes everyone sit up and notice you. As season previews were penned about the Braves 2017 bullpen, Minter was often mentioned as an x-factor. If he pitched well in camp and earned a promotion, he could have a big impact on this year's bullpen. However, that hope quickly turned to fear as Minter struggled with inflammation in his left arm. He was shut down after one pitching session and reported numbness in his fingers and hand. Braves fans, who have seen many of their favorite pitchers fall under the knife multiple times, feared the worse. However, the diagnosis of radial tunnel syndrome wasn't serious and while Minter wouldn't be in the mix for an opening day assignment with the team, once the inflammation went away, he could be back on the road to a possible debut.

He amped up his rehab and was ready for his first outing shortly after the Florida Fire Frogs inaugural season began. On April 11, Minter made his season debut with two strikeouts in a perfect inning. However, two days later, he hit the DL again with a groin strain. Some start, huh? Two months later, he returned for the Fire Frogs and tossed a perfect inning while striking out the side. Four days later, he made an appearance with Rome before returning to Florida for three more games. All told, he threw six innings in A-ball and allowed just one run on a solo shot by the Yankees fine second baseman prospect, Nick Solak. It was the first homerun Minter had given up in his career. He also struck out 10.

The next step was a three game-run with Mississippi. Over a week with the M-Braves, he added three more innings, the first two walks of the year, and three strikeouts. Finally, on July 5, he made his Triple-A debut. After an okay start, Minter ran into a four-game stretch where he gave up at least a run in each game - and six total earned runs. However, after a rough outing on July 23 (four runs, one earned, only two outs recorded), Minter did something for the first time. He pitched in a back-to-back. The next night, he retired all four batters he faced with a strikeout. In fact, since July 23, Minter has worked nine games with nine innings and nine strikeouts. The six walks in that time frame...is a bit much and uncharacteristic for Minter.

His last outing came on Monday. He threw a scoreless inning and worked around a single and a walk by striking out three batters. It was the first time he had struck-out-the-side in Triple-A.

What's the scouting report on Minter? Since college, Minter has worked with the Braves to try to clean up his delivery. It's a lot smoother now and he gets through the motion with much less wasted effort. He delivers out of a high 3/4's release point and when I have seen him struggle with his mechanics, his release point has been a bit of a tell. It drops a bit too much, which leads to not just less explosive pitches, but weaker control. While his delivery is a lot cleaner than it was in college, he's still a high-effort pitcher on the mound. This limits his ability to work beyond one frame at a time.

His heater has the great velocity you look for with consistent mid-to-upper 90's heat. He'll work around the plate and is not afraid to burn a fastball by a hitter up in the zone before nailing the outside corner with a low heater. It's not just his control with the fastball that impresses, but the movement. It has a bit of natural sink and run to it which makes it difficult to barrel up. It appears he has a cut fastball, but that might be changing speeds with his fastball because the movement on the two pitches isn't that dissimilar. What will pay the bills, though, is the slider. It has the nasty sweeping action you are looking for in a slider with good depth to it. It's a swing-and-miss pitch that lefties throw their bats at while righties swing over the top of it as it bears down on their ankles.

Minter is a quick worker on the mound and seemingly unfazed by whatever is happening at the moment. He goes after hitters without fear and the fastball/slider combo has high-leverage inning quality.

The biggest question with Minter is his health. This is unfair to some degree because he's young, had wonky mechanics at A&M, and got hurt. The Braves were extra careful with him as a result and the groin injury was just one of those things that happens. He could be healthy and excellent moving forward. But until he can show that, the concerns about his health will remain.

At worst, it's hard to see Minter fail to find a role in a major league bullpen - even if it's as only a left hand specialist. Lefties have managed just eleven hits against Minter in the minors and with his profile, it's difficult to see major league lefties having much more success than that. Will he reach his full potential that has often included the tag, "closer-in-waiting?" It's quite possible. With maturity, consistent mechanics, and more experience learning the art of pitching, Minter would have all the tools to be a high-leverage arm who could anchor a pen. As long as he's able to stay on the mound, it's all there for him. It's going to be fun to watch.

As an aside, the Braves sent Max Fried down. He'll likely join Gwinnett, though he could return to Mississippi. Fried struggled badly with his control in his new role as a reliever for the Braves. They got a look at him and he'll probably return sometime in September. simply wasn't able to find his curveball consistently, which led to some bad outings. A few starts in the minors might help him adjust once more.

Some Waves are Bigger than Others

There are some in Braves country that are getting annoyed with the rebuild, and I get it (but don't agree with the mindset). The Braves traded some of their biggest names in Craig Kimbrel, Jason Heyward, and Andrelton Simmons, and thus far have not seen the fruits of that labor at the Major League level. Since the rebuild commenced, the MLB team has looked pretty lackluster, and even the pitching talent that has surfaced has likely not been what is expected...or at least advertised. 

However, if you look outside the Braves front office fluffing of a few of the early pitching prospects, you get an unbiased look at what was expected of some of these guys, and while the "ceiling" has not been met, the expectation was MUCH, MUCH less than what our fans or front office claimed.

But fret not Braves fans. On a daily basis, I get to set my eyes upon the wonders of the Gulf of Mexico and I can assure you that some waves are bigger than others. If you're familiar with the color-coded flags that frequent the panhandle of Florida that determine wave conditions, you'll be familiar with the green, yellow, red, and double red flags. Here are their descriptions:

• GREEN FLAG- Calm Condition
• YELLOW FLAG- Moderate Surf/Currents
• RED FLAG- High Hazard
• DOUBLE RED FLAG- Beach Closed to the Public

These flags represent the Braves rebuild, especially that of the pitching variety. We are in the midst of this thing, but it's about to get really rocky for other MLB teams.

LET'S GO GREEN!!!!

Two years ago the first wave of the rebuild showed up and, no doubt, it was of the green flag variety. It wasn't a threat to the other MLB clubs. But the problem was in how it was presented to the masses. Let's break down a few guys: 

Staff Sgt. Jason Duhr via Wikipedia Commons

1. Matt Wisler- Every outlet that projected this guy saw him as a guy with a mid-rotation ceiling, but prior to his promotion he was being pushed as a guy to build on by the Braves brass. This was wish-casting and fast-forward to 2017, Wisler's being converted to relief at AAA after failing to keep his ERA below 4 since 2013.

2. Mike Foltynewicz- Immediately, when Mike was traded for, Braves started discussing front-line rotation stuff.  Unlike Wisler, this wasn't much of a stretch, but many prospect gurus agreed that the floor of "back-end relief" was more likely. Fast forward 3 years, and there are flashes but it mostly looks like he'll be a mid-rotation guy for his career...and that's a win for the Braves.

3. Aaron Blair- "Mid-rotation workhorse" ceiling that turned into a big dumpster fire at the MLB level. And this tidbit: He miraculously lost 3 MPH on his fastball when he donned a Braves uni. He's now sporting a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and a mid-4s ERA at AAA.

4. Tyrell Jenkins- "Back-end rotation" ceiling now out of a job after being released by the Padres in July. Many, including myself, got caught up in his dynamic personality and decent ERA despite having poor peripherals that showed their true colors against the best baseball hitters in the game.

So, the GREEN FLAG wave has passed and as of now, only 1 of the 4 have come close to prospect projections. Is this more a lesson in prospect projections? Patience? Expectations? Really, it's all of the above. It is pretty rare for baseball players to live up to the hype of their prospect status, but the expectations that were thrown on this first wave to bear fruit were unfair to the players and the fans, not to mention the pressure the front office put on them with unreachable ceilings. But baseball is hard, and the guys above still have plenty of time to grow into their projections.

They call me MELLOW YELLOW

The Braves are in the midst of their YELLOW FLAG wave. These are guys with higher ceilings but have not put it all together in the MLB or MilB.

1.Sean Newcomb- The poster child for the YELLOW FLAG as Sean has a ceiling that is likely as high as anyone in the entire system, but is still plagued by control issues that were still present at Gwinnett. It's not a bad strategy for him to try to work through control issues in the midst of a punt year, but it'll be interesting to see what happens next year when the Braves are supposedly going to try to compete for the division and likely won't have the patience to run a pitcher out every 5th day plagued with the same issues that have cursed his baseball career. 

Rick Briggs via Flickr (CC by SA 2.0)

2. Lucas Sims- Once considered the Braves best-pitching prospect, Sims is now overshadowed by 2 handfuls of pitchers throughout the system.  Like Newcomb, Sims has been plagued by the ol' 4-baller, but that's taken care of itself over the last 2 years, but at what cost?  What made Sims valuable at a younger age was a fastball that had lots of movement and could hit 96.  Now his fastball sits in the low-90s. At Gwinnett this year, it didn't effect his strikeout rate as he was punching out over 10 per 9. However, in the MLB it's down to 4.7, albeit in a very small sample. The thing about Sims is if you look at projecting the Braves over the next 4-5 years, he doesn't seem to have the sticking power to stay in the rotation. His ceiling is much lower now than what it was after his age 19-season, and current projections have him as a back end guy/high-leverage reliever. It's my opinion that Sims received his 2017 chance due to his 40-man roster placement, not his performance, which was good but not really call-up worthy. As part of the yellow wave, I think Sims' best chance to stay in a rotation would be in a rotation that doesn't have a tomahawk across the chest. 

3. Max Fried- Fried is a poster child for small samples, both good and bad. His overall body of work has looked very pedestrian, but he flashes brilliance on a regular basis. Like Sims, Fried is likely on the MLB roster due to his position on the 40-man roster, but also the Braves are likely trying to keep his innings down as they've been extra cautious with guys coming off of Tommy John surgery. All of Fried's pitches are still present and his hook looks as filthy as ever, but something has held him back from tapping consistently into greatness. My guess is simply location as there's nothing else that can be pinpointed to mediocrity. He's one to keep an eye on as his ceiling is that of a 3-4 starter, but health could take him down as low as middle relief.

Red Flag?  SKIP THAT! DOUBLE RED FLAG IN FULL-EFFECT in 2018!!!

2018, the bulk of high-end pitching prospects will be at full-bloom at some point in time during the year, and it could be a wonder to behold!  Our next group all have front-line potential (number 1-2 starters) and this isn't organizational fluff but real prospect gurus with real projections.

1. Luiz Gohara- 20 years of age and flying through the minors after being mercifully removed from the Mariners' organization, Gohara might have the highest ceiling of all the pitching prospects with a serious left-handed power arm that's capable of striking out the fiercest of opponents. His issues stem from problems outside the diamond of which I'm not willing to delve into, but if he can keep those at bay, look out MLB.

2. Mike Soroka- Comparing anyone to Greg Maddux is setting them up for failure, so I'm not going to do that, but Soroka's pinpoint control is reminiscent of Maddux's reputation. Also only 20, Soroka is on pace to see time in the MLB as early as April of 2018, and I cannot possibly imagine a scenario where he's not in the bigs by 2018's end. Works low in the zone and uses every scrap of the plate, and if Tyler Flowers has anything to do with it, he'll use bits right outside the plate as well. With 3 plus pitches in his arsenal, this dude's the real deal. While he might not have the front-line arsenal of Gohara, his control could put him in the conversation.

3. Kolby Allard- At 19, the Braves might be pumping the brakes on this young stud as he's run into his first professional stretch where he hasn't dominated. Like Soroka, Allard has 3 plus-pitches and can run a FB up to 97, but normally ranges from 91-94. The fastball has lots of movement and his curve has different levels of break depending on the velocity. He's in AA and I think he stays there the rest of this year and maybe part of 2018. From there, it's anyone's guess, but I think his MLB debut happens sometime in 2019.

4. Touki Toussaint- If you were like me (don't be like me) you rated Touki lower on the prospect chart due to an inflated ERA that's been present his entire MiLB career. Like I said, don't be me and listen to others when they say Touki was, and still is, raw, but he is really coming around these last 4-5 starts. Like Gohara, if everything goes right, oh boy! Hold on to your seat because he's going to rocket. For now, his 95 MPH fastball and ridiculous curveball will make its home in Pearl, MS where he'll make foes look like fools. My bet is he'd be on the Allard track.

5. Kyle Wright- Could the Braves push Wright to MLB next year? You bet your butt they could...but I wouldn't expect it. Like Dansby, Wright is a polished pitcher that's got the frame and arsenal to be great. If the Braves need a push from a pitcher late in 2018, Wright could be that guy. However, 2019 seems more realistic and that's only 1.5 years in the Minors, a little more than Dansby.

Calm after the Storm? HECK NO!!! RED FLAG COMING IN!!!!

This group could very well become a named storm, let's call it Hurricane Arm Overload, and that would put them into DOUBLE RED FLAG status if they continue to develop, but for now, let's just appreciate them for kicking butt in the system. Most of these guys are early in their development and while most players they're facing off against are older, they're still in Low-A or below (or injured) and I've learned valuable lessons about projecting guys as "stars" when they're still in the lower minors (or injured). Watch closely to this group's development when they get to Double-A and beyond. I most definitely have high hopes.

1. Ian Anderson- Only 19 years old, Braves 1st round pick from 2016 is sitting 'em down at Low-A and has a body to grow into. Can already run it up to 97, and has the projections to be a #2-3 guy.

2. Joey Wentz- Also only 19, and has been a personal favorite of mine since the draft (and I have articles to prove it!), I think he's going to be really special. Putting up best numbers in the system at Low-A with a mid-90s peak fastball, and a change up and curve that's reportedly getting better every outing. The athleticism is the game-changer here and Wentz was a serious 2-way star coming out of high school and that should really pay dividends on the mound. Early projections show his ceiling as a mid-rotation pitcher.

3. Bryse Wilson- The surprise of the system thus far, and forgive me if I repeat things, but Bryse is also 19 years of age. Only surpassed by Wentz, Bryse is sporting a 2.36 ERA with a great K-rate, low-BB rate, and a knack for controlling the zone. The knock on him when drafted was that scouts thought he was destined for the bullpen, but man oh man he's proving he can play up. Working off of his fastball that sits the mid-90s, Bryse has a curve/slurve that's very effective and a change-up that is developing with every outing. Early projections show him as a mid-to-back end rotation pitcher.

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4. Kyle Muller- Pitching at Danville, Muller seems to be a bit behind in development from the 3 above, but it'd only take 2-3 dominant performances for him to be right in the mix. Muller most definitely has one of the more suitable frames for longevity as he's coming in at 6'6 225. Fastball sits at 92-93 but many reports I saw right after the draft had it pushing 95. I think we will see added velo to his fastball before it's said and done and he's likely toned it down to work on command which is very common for pitchers in the Braves system. Like Wentz, Muller is known for his athleticism and that should help his cause on the mound. A 3 pitch arsenal that's being fine tuned and has a 4th pitch that he's playing around with for now, Muller has the makeup to become an overnight surprise. Was in extended ST for a while nursing an ailment so I wouldn't doubt if he's up in Low-A by the end of the season when mass promotions will once again pour over the southeast like a summer thunderstorm.

5. Patrick Weigel- There's no doubt that Weigel would be in the Double Red Flag group above had it not been for his season-ending Tommy-John surgery at June's end. Like Muller, Weigel has a frame for eating innings if his arm can agree with his body post-surgery. Weigel works off of his fastball which sits 95ish and moves up to 100 on occasions. Weigel was promoted to AAA after 7 dominant starts in AA and ran into some hiccups. However, it was reported that his velo took a nosedive in the last 2-3 starts before being pulled on June 18th after only 3.1 innings.  Due to the Braves extreme caution on Tommy John victims, Weigel likely won't see action again until 2019 or at earliest Winter Ball in 2018 which, in turns, begs the question, "Does Weigel remain a starter?" The short answer for me is yes, but I don't think that'll be his role in MLB. If he can stay healthy, I think Weigel becomes a back-end bullpen threat where he's asked to come in and let it fly. Focusing on 2 dominant pitches in his fastball and curveball and keeping the 3rd (changeup) in his back pocket to keep hitters honest, Weigel could be a serious force for years.

WELL, that's all folks!  Don't fret when looking at the current fruits of the Braves pitching prospects that have peaked into the bigs this year. Dominance is coming and we are going to have wave after wave after wave for years to come.

Go BRAVES!!!

Saturday Stats Pack: Kemp, Vizcaino, Acuna, Soroka

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Matt Kemp Is Double Play City

We quantify everything nowadays. It's not enough to count each instance of a double play. We now have Weighted Grounded Into Double Plays. What this number tries to do is not only count the number of times a player grounds into double play, but also credit the times that he doesn't. It's used in fWAR, by the way. Unsurprisingly, the best at this are guys who hit a lot of flyballs like Cody Bellinger and Joey Gallo. Matt Kemp isn't in that camp. He's near 50% in groundballs - not a particularly good thing when you aren't known for your speed. Unsurprisingly, Kemp ranks extremely poorly in wGDP. Again, this isn't shocking because he leads the league in GDP anyway, but wGDP goes that extra mile so it's worth a look as well. Kemp's wGDP is -3.1 It's already the worst mark of his career.

Folty Playing With Fire

Line drives are a path to struggles for a pitcher. Not only are they massively dangerous, but their tendency to become hits makes them incredibly problematic. In 2014, hitters batted .685 with a .684 wOBA on line drives. That's compared to a .220 wOBA on grounders and a .335 wOBA on flyballs. Mike Foltynewicz has a line-drive rate of 24%, the ninth highest such rate among starters entering play Friday. The Top 10 in this category is full of pitchers with around a 4.50 ERA or higher like Scott Feldman, Johnny Cueto, Justin Verlander, and Jeff Samardzija. Worse - over the last three years - Foltynewicz ranks third behind just Adam Wainwright and Jeremy Hellickson in line-drive rate. It's difficult to be a success when so many balls are hit hard. It's not impossible, but very difficult. unlike many of those pitchers, one advantage Foltynewicz has is his youth. He still has room to grow.

Dansby is Clutch?

Recently, I went over the Clutch statistic - a mixture of Win Probability Added with the leverage index of a situation taken into account. The Top 10 in Clutch this season includes some predictable names like Nolan Arenado, Kendrys Morales, and even Albert Pujols. It also includes two Braves. Brandon Phillips ranks 7th and Dansby Swanson ranks ninth. Considering the terrible year Swanson has had which has led to a recent demotion, that might be surprising. Well, don't get too excited. It's based largely on 36 PA in high leverage situations this season for Swanson. He's 9-for-29 with four doubles, seven walks, and seven strikeouts in those moments. 36 PA is hardly a notable sample size, but for us fans of Swanson, it's nice to find something good he ranks in the top 10 of.

Vizcaino's Heat Overshadows His Out Pitch

Since finally putting the arm troubles in the rear view (for the most part) that plagued him during his time with the Cubs, Arodys Vizcaino has continued to show that there are few pitchers in the game with his kind of velocity. Over the last three years, he's averaged 98.3 mph on his fastball. Only six other relievers have averaged at least 98 mph. But Vizcaino's story isn't his velocity. It's great, but his most effective pitch his is curveball. Over the last three years, it's ranked ninth among relievers in pitch value - largely built on the seventh best vertical movement among bullpen guys during that time frame. So, while we are all in awe over what Vizzy's heater can do, it's ultimately a show-me pitch. It's the curveball that pays the bills.

Swing-Happy

It's no secret that Brandon Phillips is not a guy who will stay in the batting box for long. Only 4.3% of his plate appearances have ended in a walk this season and his strikeout rate of 12.1% is also rather low. Phillips is up there to swing and the results bear that out. Of hitters with at least 200 PA this season, Phillips's swing percentage is 10th at 55.8%. In fact, the Braves are attempting a radical strategy of keeping SunTrust Park cool by swinging early-and-often. Matt Kemp is 20th at 53.5%, Freddie Freeman is 22nd with 53.3%, Matt Adams is 26 at 52.6%, and Ender Inciarte is 32nd at 52.3%. Shockingly, the Braves entered play Friday with the fourth lowest walk percentage in baseball.

Morris Rolling

He's only tossed 7.1 innings in the majors to this point, but something we saw out of Akeel Morris in the minors is translating to continued success in the majors. No other pitcher in Gwinnett was getting more swinging strikes than Morris. In fact, 16% of his pitches resulted in a whiff at Gwinnett. So far in the majors, that number is 14.3%. That could hint toward continued success for Morris.

At Least As Good As Adonis?

Freddie Freeman surpassed 100 innings at third base this week and we might be able to begin to grade him. Well, not really as 100 innings is way too low of a sample, but it's all we have. For instance, we can say that Freeman compares decently to one of the players no longer manning third base - Adonis Garcia. Now, this isn't fair because we're comparing over 1700 innings to 100, but Freeman compares positively in some regards (DRS, rPM, RZR) with Garcia. Of course...Garcia is not considered a good defender at third base...

Acuna Just Getting Better

Ronald Acuna's year has been off-the-charts awesome. It began with a winter-league run in Australia where he earned the moniker "The Answer to Everything." He then hammered the Florida State League for a .370 wOBA over 28 games before being promoted to Double-A. Once there, his numbers improved a bit more and he earned another promotion to Triple-A. But you all know this already. What may not be as well known is the improvement he's made at each level. Take all of this with a grain of salt because of short sample sizes, BUT...with each promotion, his walk rate has improved from 6.3% to 7.4% to 10.6% entering Friday. With each promotion, his strikeout rate has declined from 31.7% to 23.0% to 21.2%. In addition, his ISO has shown some improvement from .191 to .195 to .228. These three numbers are as exciting to me as any power or speed numbers he's posted to this point. They suggest he's only progressing.

Soroka's Control

One of the best minor league stories in baseball has been the success of Mike Soroka at Double-A despite being just 19 years-old. One of the most efficient pitchers in the minor leagues, Soroka just doesn't walk batters. By that, I mean he's walked just 4.7% of opposing hitters. Considering his 2.99 FIP, that suggests Soroka is not a control artist, but a dominant one and his 21.5% strikeout rate bears that out. All told, he has nearly a 17% difference between his strikeout and walk rates. How good is that? Only 19 starters are doing that in the major leagues right now. Not too shabby for a kid who probably should be getting his feet wet at low-A ball right now considering his age.

Touki's Turning the Corner

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All season, there have been two competing observations when it comes to Touki Toussaint.

On one side, you had people looking at his ERA, which has been above 5 for most of the season, which prompted people to lose some of their patience in the young kid with the electric arm. They saw a 2-9 record and grew tired of waiting for Toussaint to live up to the hype. After all, he wasn't all that great last year, right? With other Baby Braves pitchers not struggling, Toussaint seemed lost in the shuffle.

The flip side to that argument had fans ignore all of those bad numbers and look for improvement - or, to use a more accurate word, progression. What they saw was a better strikeout rate than he had last season. They saw a walk rate cut by 3%. They saw a groundball rate that was up 7%. They saw the lowest FIP of Toussaint's young career. What they saw was a guy who was pitching better than his numbers may have suggested.

I don't want to frame this as a traditional fan vs. statnerd debate. That said, the second group is starting to look like the one that was on the right side after all. Last night, Toussaint mowed down the St. Lucie Mets as he pitched the Fire Frogs to a 4-1 victory. Facing a Mets lineup with four players currently in the MLB.com Mets Top 30, Toussaint gave up just three hits - including a two-out home run in the eighth inning. He settled to strike out Michael Paez, ranked as the #30th best Mets prospect according to MLB Pipeline. By the way, those four prospects that are considered some of the best prospects in the Mets' system collectively went 0-for-12 against Toussaint with six strikeouts.

Paez's swinging K came on Toussaint's 105th and final pitch. He threw 72 strikes and struck out eleven batters while walking none. Of the eight innings he tossed, each frame had at least one strikeout in it, including three in the fifth inning. Oh, and that Tim Tebow guy? He went 0-for-3 with two strikeouts against Toussaint. In fact, Toussaint struck out every Met except John Mora during the game. Always a solid teammate, Adam McCreery got Mora swinging in his sketchy one inning to secure the save.

The game merely built on two previous solid starts and together, he has lowered his ERA from 5.90 to 5.11. Over his last three starts, he's thrown 21 innings, walked six, and struck out 28 batters. I am told by reliable sources that those are good numbers.

I'm a guy who looks for one thing in minor league stats over anything else. Progression. The reason why I believed Brian McCann would be a better major league hitter than Jeff Francoeur is because the former showed progression during his brief minor league career while the other stagnated. In Toussaint, the Braves have seen progression despite what his ERA and win-loss record said. Here are some numbers that have me excited:

• Two years ago, Toussaint struck out 18% of opposing hitters. Last year, he K'd 22%. This year, it's up to 26%. 
• Two years ago, Toussaint walked 13% of opposing hitters. Last year, he walked 12%. This year, it's down to 9%. 
• Two years ago, Toussaint had a groundball rate of 38.4%. Last year, it was nearly the same at 38.3%. This year, it's up to 45%. 

Toussaint turned 21 a month ago. While he didn't figure it out enough to be an All-Star at Double-A by the age of 19 like Mike Soroka, that doesn't mean Toussaint's not a top prospect. The high-end potential has always been there, but he needed experience and plenty of hard work with Dan Meyer, Chuck Hernandez, and current Florida pitching coach Dennis Lewallyn to tweak his delivery. If Friday night is any indication, the work put in by those three, other coaches and players, and - of course - Toussaint is beginning to help the kid turn the corner in a big way.

Gvedak, via Reddit

It's hard not to love Toussaint. He possesses a solid low-to-mid 90's fastball and has learned to pitch low in the zone with it. When he trusts his stuff, his fastball becomes a plus pitch - capable of getting strikes and putting away hitters with its movement. His changeup will decide whether or not he stays as a starter and it's seemingly improved each year as he gets a better handle on it with improved mechanics. It's still not a great pitch - it may never be one - but I think it's good enough to keep the starting pitcher option available. His best delivery is the curve, which can be baseball pornography when you watch it. It has a traditional 12-6 break, but what makes it so special is how much it drops. Either the hitter swings over it believing it's a hanger or they recognize it, buckle their knees, and pray the umpire doesn't ring them up. In each case, Toussaint has shown progression with learning how to pitch with his three options rather than continue to try to throw them perfectly.

There's been a good deal of prospect fatigue when it comes to Toussaint. This happens when you continue to hear about what a player can be despite the results not being there. It pushes people to forget that the hype surrounding the prospect is often based on real scouting reports and sometimes, if you dig deeper, the numbers do support the belief that the player is performing better than their baseball card stats may suggest. In Toussaint's case, he most certainly had been and on Friday, he put an exclamation point on it. Don't get down on him because his ERA is closer to 6 than it is to 3. He's been much better than you think he's been all season. His efforts against Tebow and Company only made that a bit more clear.

One Thing to Watch with Mike Soroka

The Atlanta Braves have hitched their rebuild to starting pitching. Whatever you think of that strategy, that's what they've done and they've littered their farm system with the best collection of arms in baseball. And in a system that’s stacked with so much pitching talent, there may be none more talented than RH Mike Soroka.

Soroka was taken in the 1^st round (28^th pick) of the 2015 draft and almost immediately made it known that his talent takes a back seat to no one. After signing, he started with Danville and went on to post a 2.10 FIP while striking out 25% of the batters he faced in his first season. That impressive performance earned him a spot in Rome for the 2016 season and all Soroka did was follow up his impressive debut with 143 innings and a 2.78 FIP in A ball despite just being 18. While other kids were graduating high school, Mike Soroka was dominating a pro baseball league.

These performances were so absolute and so dominant, that the Braves' front office decided to do something a bit unusual and very aggressive. They decided to jump Soroka directly to AA to start the 2017 season, completely skipping High A ball, and make a very clear statement that their belief in the right-hander was as real as his talent.

He hasn’t disappointed. Unbelievably at 19, Mike has a 2.38 ERA and a 3.08 FIP in 105 innings at Mississippi this year and his still striking out almost 22% of batters faced. Wednesday night against Biloxi, Soroka arguably had his best start of the year throwing 7 innings with 2 hits 2 runs and 12 strikeouts. At 19, he truly is one of the best prospects in the Braves' system and really, in all of baseball.

But there is one thing I think it’s going to prudent to watch as Mike progress up the minor league ladder and eventually to the majors. Mike has a three-quarter arm slot in his delivery and that comes with some challenges. The principal challenge, as is with any pitcher is health but that’s not the point of this post. What we’re going to need to watch with Soroka are his platoon splits.

Every pitching prospect in baseball, at some point, has to solve the mystery of getting opposite handed hitters out, and it’s not always easy. Guys like Julio Teheran and Mike Foltynewicz still struggle with it to this day so success certainly doesn’t always come quick. Or at all.

But the reason it’s such a big deal for Soroka is because of that three-quarter arm slot. Historically there is a correlation between guys who throw with a lower arm slot and guys who have more severe platoon splits. The reason is simple enough to explain. Generally speaking batters hit pitches moving towards them more effectively than they do pitches moving away from them. This is the entire reason why platoon splits exist. Most of the pitches a RH pitcher throws move towards a left-handed hitter and vice-versa. The one exception is typically a change-up.

The way the physics of a change-up work is the more you can get on top of it as you throw it, the more horizontal movement it’s going to have arm side. This is the most prominent weapon pitchers have used against opposite handed hitters because typically it’s the only pitch they have that’s moving away from the hitter. But because getting on top of the pitch helps so much, it’s not hard to understand why lower arm slot guys have trouble throwing it and why historically, they have higher platoon splits.

Really I guess you could say what we need to be paying attention to is the development of his change-up. Fangraphs put a 45 on it. (20-80 scouting scale) MLBPipeline has it at a 55. Who knows where it ends up but where we’re going to see the fruits of that development most is against LHB. Looking at his minor league numbers, you can start to see it a little. In 2015 his OPS against vs RHB was .303. Against LHB it was .864. That split improved considerably in 2016 with a .603 OPS against vs RHB and .648 OPS against vs LHB.

Honestly though, it’s going to be in the upper minors and his first couple years in the majors where we’re going to see how severe this problem is. His splits in AA this year are a .471 OPS against RHB and a .747 OPS against vs LHB. So there is something there. Again, this isn't a problem as much as it is just something to watch.

Every pitcher has to solve platoon splits. There's plenty of guys in the majors still trying to figure this stuff out. But the arm slot correlations are real and the explanations behind them make perfect sense. Soroka is a first class pitching prospect and his minor league career numbers speak for themselves. But how he develops that change-up and consequently how he handles LHB will ultimately decide how great he can be. Because the talent is there.

The Walk-Off Walk Midseason Top 50

Welcome to the Walk-Off Walk Midseason Top 50. For the first time in this blog's history, the rankings won't just be my thoughts on the matter, but the product of three different voices chiming in. In addition to me, Ryan Cothran has submitted his version and the new addition to the blog, Stephen Tolbert, has gotten in on the act as well.

Below is the list. Shortly before I posted this, I also posted a Walk-Off Talk with all three of us throwing out our thoughts on a variety of things such as the top pick, certain surprises in the rankings, and a few players who should climb up the rankings very soon. When you're done digesting our overall list, scroll down or click here to check it out.

There are a couple of criteria that must be met to be on this list. One, the prospect has to be 25-and-under. Second, the prospect still must retain rookie eligibility. Dansby Swanson exhausted his eligibility this season - meaning, he cannot be a rookie again. Speaking of Swanson, he's one of 13 players to not make this list after being part of my Top 50 during the preseason. Swanson, who was #1, was joined by Luke Jackson (#24) as players who graduated off the list. Juan Yepez(#27) was traded while Steve Janas (#41) was released. The remaining nine players simply fell off, led by Michael Mader at #28.

Finally, when there was a tie among prospects average ranking, I lifted Andy Harris's tie-breaking rule and went with the top individual ranking from any three contributors. This happened four times during the Top 50.

With that in mind, here is the list. Included is the player's previous rank and each of his three placements in the WOW contributors' lists. Again, remember to read our accompanying piece.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
1.	Ronald Acuna	9	2	2	1
2.	Ozzie Albies	3	3	1	2
3.	Kyle Wright	UR	1	3	3
4.	Kevin Maitan	5	7	4	4
5.	Kolby Allard	5	4	7	5
6.	Mike Soroka	6	6	5	6
7.	Sean Newcomb	2	4	8	7
8.	Luiz Gohara	7	8	6	10
9.	Ian Anderson	10	10	9	8
10.	Joey Wentz	14	9	10	17

A lot of agreement overall in regards to the top ten prospects in the system as only Wentz's ranking by Tolbert had him outside the Top 10. Allard and Soroka, drafted with consecutive Braves' choice in 2015 and headlining the Mississippi rotation as 19 year-olds, both had an average rank of 5.67. All three writers were in agreement over the Top 3 prospects, but each had a slightly different take.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
11.	Alex Jackson	21	16	12	9
12.	Travis Demeritte	13	13	14	12
13.	Austin Riley	12	12	15	13
14.	Touki Toussaint	8	11	22	11
15.	Patrick Weigel	17	14	11	23
16.	Kyle Muller	16	20	16	15
17.	Bryse Wilson	46	22	13	18
18.	Lucas Sims	18	17	18	20
19.	Cristian Pache	26	18	24	14
20.	Dustin Peterson	15	15	19	24

After a lot of the same players showed up in each contributor's Top 10, half of the next ten included players a member of WOW ranked outside the Top 20. Poe learned from his previous mistake and pushed Bryse Wilson up the rankings 24 spots, but still ranked him lower than anybody else and five spots below his WOW rank. Cristian Pache had a much smaller climb but jumped seven spots to #19th. Dustin Peterson became the second member of the rankings to win a tie-breaker after tying with an average of 19.33 but winning based on Poe's 14th placement.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
21.	Max Fried	11	19	17	22
22.	Drew Waters	UR	25	25	16
23.	Johan Camargo	UR	27	21	21
24.	A.J. Minter	19	24	20	26
25.	Rio Ruiz	20	23	29	19
26.	Brett Cumberland	25	21	23	28
27.	Derian Cruz	23	31	26	25
28.	Anfernee Seymour	47	29	30	35
29.	Akeel Morris	30	33	32	31
30.	Tyler Pike	UR	26	28	43

As the rankings increase, we start to see much more diversity in thought. Tyler Pike, one of three previously unranked players among this group of ten, makes the Top 30 despite being ranked #43 in Tolbert's ranking. In addition, a pair of players in Anfernee Seymour and Akeel Morris rank higher in the composite rankings than any of their rankings in each of the contributor's three lists. Both Seymour and Pike are among the four biggest climbers with the aforementioned Bryse Wilson joining them. However, nobody jumped higher than Johan Camargo, who goes from unranked to #23.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
31.	Ricardo Sanchez	33	30	38	30
32.	Yunior Severino	44	36	33	33
33.	Abraham Gutierrez	43	39	37	27
34.	Randy Ventura	UR	43	27	34
35.	Drew Harrington	UR	28	49	32
36.	Lucas Herbert	32	42	31	36
37.	Freddy Tarnok	UR	UR	35	29
38.	Braxton Davidson	22	32	39	47
39.	Ray-Patrick Didder	31	35	34	UR
40.	Caleb Dirks	34	34	36	UR

For the first time, we begin to see guys appear who wasn't even on all three lists as Freddy Tarnok reaches #37 despite not being on Poe's list. Ricardo Sanchez is the last player whose combined rankings equal less than 100. Drew Harrington and Lucas Herbert tied with an average of 36.33, but Harrington's top individual ranking of #28 secures the #35th spot for him. Braxton Davidson dropped 16 spots, one of biggest declines in the rankings compared to preseason. Randy Ventura makes this list after being included in the preseason 5 Looking In accompanying article to the Top 50. He's the only one of that group to do so.

Rank	Name	Preseason	Poe	Cothran	Tolbert
41.	Isranel Wilson	51	47	40	37
42.	Jason Hursh	UR	37	46	42
43.	Kade Scivicque	45	44	42	39
44.	Drew Lugbauer	UR	UR	41	40
45.	Matt Withrow	29	38	UR	44
46.	Tyler Neslony	UR	45	43	48
47.	Jesse Biddle	35	40	48	49
48.	Devan Watts	UR	41	47	UR
49.	Juan Contreras	UR	50	UR	38
50.	William Contreras	39	46	44	UR

The final ten prospects had a great deal of variety. Five are new to the rankings after not making the preseason one. Jason Hursh returns to the Top 50 rankings after getting removed in the preseason. Drew Lugbauer becomes the fourth member of the 2017 draft class to join the Top 50. In addition, Hursh and Kade Scivicque came down to a tiebreaker. As did Devan Watts and Juan Contreras. One last note - Izzy Wilson was originally going to rank as the #49th top prospect in the preseason list, but a trade after the list began, which added Thomas Burrows and Luiz Gohara to the organization, prompted me to push the preseason list to a Top 52. No such need this year.

Players also receiving votes included Yefri Del Rosario, Leudys Baez, Luis Valenzuela, Wes Parsons, Burrows, Ryan Lawlor, Troy Bacon, and Yenci Pena.

Keep scrolling to read the authors' reasoning for how they arrived at their choices.