I've posted a lot of articles at my AtlantaBraves.About.com link as things start to get more active with spring training beginning. Here's a comprehensive list of the articles over the last week or so. All article links open to a new tab/window.
Braves Plan to Spend Big, but Not On Veteran Players
...Instead of pooling their funds together for a big free agent splash, the Atlanta Braves might be in the act of simply waiting to go big this July. Kevin Maitan, the prize of the international signing class, has been a target of Atlanta's for a long time now, but he's probably just the tip of the iceberg in what will be a huge international showing by the Braves. Read more.
Are the Atlanta Braves Tanking? That All Depends
...Is it fair to label a rebuilding project "tanking?" And what really is tanking? Is it the systematic effort to be awful for future gains in draft picks and payroll because, if not, can we really say that's what the Braves are doing? My deeper look into the subject pushes me to come to this resolution - the Braves are just being smart. Read more.
Who Are the Atlanta Braves' Top 5 Prospects?
...I ranked prospects from #50 to #6 here, but with the Top 5, I jumped to the other blog with deeper analysis on all five. Process of elimination means that the Top 5 is some mix of Ozhaino Albies, Kolby Allard, Aaron Blair, Sean Newcomb, and Dansby Swanson - but where do they rank? Read more.
3 Things About Gordon Beckham
...In more cross promotional connections between here and AtlantaBraves.About.com, the 3 Things series is a more biographical component to the Scouting Report series here. A few days ago, I posted Beckham's Scouting Report here on the same day as I posted 3 Things. Relive his college days where Beckham looked like a world beater, his short minor league career, and a major league career in which his first major league experience was also his best. Read more.
Jeff Francoeur Serves as Cautionary Tale
...One of the more talked-about signings of the offseason for the Braves may have been their final one. This week, the Braves brought "Frenchy" back on a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. His return gives us a moment to take stock in how prospects will break your heart and even when they don't, it takes time. Read more.
Atlanta Braves Looking for Answers in the Rotation
...After reading this article, you can name three different starting staffs the Braves could technically go with in 2016 and never repeat a name. Julio Teheran is at the front and Bud Norris and Matt Wisler seem like they will be joining him, but the rest of the rotation is completely up in the air. Manny Banuelos, Mike Foltynewicz, Ryan Weber, and Williams Perez lead returning starters while Blair, Newcomb, and Tyrell Jenkins lead youngsters looking for a shot. And then, there is the minor league free agents like Jhoulys Chacin and Kyle Kendrick. The list is seemingly never ending. Read more.
Babe Ruth Comes Back to Boston as a Brave
...Typically, I do Transactions of Today here (and did one today about Jack Quinn), but when it comes to the Great Bambino, things are always a wee bit different. 81 years ago, Ruth joined the Braves after a bitter end with the Yankees. While Boston had hoped Ruth would be a big boost at the ticket counter, he was just a shell of his former self at this point and aside from magical May day, people were no longer seeing the Sultan of Swat. Read more.
That's it. Hoping this week will continue to be free enough for me to write another group of articles.
Showing posts with label Top50-2016. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Top50-2016. Show all posts
Saturday, February 27, 2016
Saturday, February 13, 2016
2016 Top 50 Prospects - #15-#6
For the past couple of weeks, I have looked at the start of the Top 50 list. I've ranked prospects #50 down to #16 so far and now you really start to see the elite prospects of this system. The next ten includes a pair of outfielders, two third basemen, and six pitchers. This section also includes my first grades better than a C+.
A couple of notes. My list does not include Derian Cruz or Christian Pache, the top prospects from last year's international class. Other blogs will include them, but unless the player has actually suited up, they don't make my list. If they did, Cruz would have been in the #10-#20 range with Pache likely in the Top 25 as well. Further, Hector Olivera and Dian Toscano are also not on my list. Even if they were young enough, so many years spent in Cuba's premier league would have kept them off. Finally, I am not a scout so take my rankings and grading system with the largest grain of salt. I believe in them, but acknowledge that other experts could disagree.
Previously Ranked: #50-#26, #25-#16
15. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Grade: C+
It wasn't exactly the season that either Ruiz or the Braves had in mind after he was acquired in the Evan Gattis trade last January. He was coming off a .293/.387/.436 slash with Lancaster (A+) as a 20 year-old and more power was expected. However, the Southern League is a bit tougher to hit in than the California League and Ruiz struggled to the tune of .233/.333/.324. It's worth noting that like many Braves prospects - especially hitters - Ruiz was pushed aggressively and had just eight plate appearances against pitchers younger than him. He also finished strong, hitting nearly .300 with 4 of his 5 HR after August 1. Another trip to Mississippi is likely in his future, though a strong spring could change things. I'm still a believer.
14. Chris Ellis, RHP, Grade: C+
Of the top prospects acquired this offseason, it's easy to forget about Ellis. A stout right-hander who was drafted in the 2014 third round out of Mississippi, Ellis has already started 15 games at AA and held his own. While he lacks the high-end talent of Sean Newcomb, who the Braves also acquired for Andrelton Simmons, Ellis had an impressive first full season of professional ball. Ellis is a breaking pitch away from being a prospect that could climb into the top 10 in no time. It's still amazing that the Angels gave up so much for Simmons. A great player, no doubt, but when you have so few prospects, surrendering Ellis and Newcomb remains a head scratcher.
13. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Grade: B-
Two things happened for Jenkins in 2015 that has never happened before in his previous three years since graduating rookie ball - he pitched above A-ball and he stayed pretty healthy. However, while there are things to like about the results, I am a bit slow to get too excited because the K/9 rate was the worst of his career and his walk rate went up. On the other hand, just staying healthy and on the mound was an accomplishment and could give us hope for better things to come. I'm still grading him on his potential and youth is on his side. Jenkins could be a breakthrough player in 2016.
12. Braxton Davidson, OF, Grade: B-
"But he only hit .242." Yes, random person, he did. At the age of 19 in the South Atlantic League. He also on-based .381 with the help of 84 walks and hit ten homers. Davidson will need to make more contact to avoid being a Cody Johnson, but I think he won't have that problem. Though he's only belted ten homers to this point, he has the raw power that could help him cruise past that total in 2016. The big question following Davidson has been whether or not he'll be able to stay in the outfield and while he probably won't be a world beater, he did enough to stick in right field last year and not completely embarrass himself. This is a good sign because his bat has more value in right field than at first base, which is considered his fallback destination. A challenge in Carolina awaits him and he won't turn 20 until June so struggles should be expected. Still...if he is able to turn it on, Davidson could be a difference maker in any lineup.
11. Austin Riley, 3B, Grade: B-
From intriguing prep pitching arm to one of the best hitting prospects in the system in a blink of an eye. After the draft, Riley spent 30 games each at the GCL level and with Danville and hammered 12 homers along the way with a .304/.389/.544 composite slash. Yes, it was only 252 PA and yeah, he struck out 65 times...but we're talking about a kid who doesn't turn 19 until April 2. It's difficult to rank Riley considering his relative inexperience, but it's hard not to push him toward the Top 10 with that kind of start. Now, the fun part begins - can he repeat his success in 2016? He joins a talent-rich Rome squad that should be exciting to watch and more eyeballs than normal will be on him. If he continues to hit, the sky is the limit for this kid.
10. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Grade: B
Is the clock starting to run out on Manny as a prospect? To a degree. He'll turn 25 in a month and started just professional career eight years ago. Injuries limited him considerably with 2016 marking the first season since 2011 that he threw at least a 100 innings. He also picked up his first shutout since 2011 as well while with Gwinnett, where he was excellent before earning a promotion to the majors. The results once promoted to the bigs started well, but the production declined before he was hurt and couldn't stay on the mound. Since injuries have taken some of his velocity, he's been relegated to a change-of-speed guy who will need to improve his location to be effective as a starter at the major league level. Still a shot he transitions into a decent LOOGY option down the line, but Atlanta will give him plenty of opportunity to be a rotation fixture first.
9. Mallex Smith, OF, Grade: B
It's easy to become overly excited about Mallex. The speed stands out at first, but its value increases when you look at Mallex's on-base skills. Over four seasons, he has a .380 OBP in the minors. But then you look at the power numbers and it's just as easy to be a bit discouraged. He had an .080 ISO last season, which is about his career norm so far. That gives him very little margin for error. It's difficult for an outfielder to post 4 WAR seasons without a .100 or better ISO. The walks help Mallex in this case and if he's able to improve his defense, which has only garnered okayish grades so far, he could definitely do that. In the end, Mallex needs all the things that he currently does to translate - hit for average, get walks, steal bases, stay in center. If any of these fade, his value is closer to 4th outfielder than the guy many are convinced will shift Ender Inciarte to left when he arrives this summer. Still, I like his chances to become a leadoff hitter in the majors much higher than Jose Peraza.
8. Max Fried, LHP, Grade: B+
At 22, Fried has just 147 innings of professional ball since the Padres made him the 7th overall pick of the 2012 draft. Even with that in mind, there are likely a few organizations out there where Fried would be their top pitching prospect right now. With a major-league quality curveball and great velocity, Fried has drawn comparisons to Cole Hamels. While the Braves will certainly baby him in 2016, the hope is that if Fried can get a hundred of innings in and pitch at AA, he'll be on a path that will get him into the major league picture before the end of 2017.
7. Lucas Sims, LHP, Grade: B+
Selected 13 picks after Fried in 2012, Sims has experienced a much healthier climb, but was bogged down by struggles in the Carolina League. That's a bit surprising because the Carolina League is typically forgiving for pitchers, but Sims was also very young for the level. He got off to a poor start in a return trip in 2015, but had back-to-back good performances before the Carolina bus accident sidelined him. After missing over a month, he came back for a brief run in Carolina before moving up to Mississippi. Outside of one bad outing against Birmingham, he was very stout with the M-Braves, striking out a season-high 10 against Pensacola and pitching into the sixth inning in each of his final six starts. He finished with an impressive 11-inning run in Arizona where he struck out 11 and walked just three. After coming off a disappointing season in 2014, Sims has momentum back on his side.
6. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Grade: B+
With Toussaint, there are few pitchers with more raw stuff. His curveball can be absolutely lethal and his fastball has amazing movement. The problem is getting Toussaint to throw strikes consistently and that can come with more experience. Cleaning up his mechanics will help considerably and at 19, he has plenty of time to get there. The Braves will likely keep the kid gloves on him for the next few seasons and progress him through the system with care. Very few pitchers have the best case scenario as a #2 - maybe even #1 - but Toussaint has that if he can develop an off-speed delivery to compliment his fastball/curve combo (plus mechanics and control, of course). It's going to be fun to watch him try to put it all together and if you can see him pitch this year, you better go. You might see a stinker or you might see him throw six hitless innings like he did against Lakewood last July 20th. That was just his 24th career game.
Next week, I'll post the Top 5 Braves prospects at my other website, atlantabraves.about.com.
A couple of notes. My list does not include Derian Cruz or Christian Pache, the top prospects from last year's international class. Other blogs will include them, but unless the player has actually suited up, they don't make my list. If they did, Cruz would have been in the #10-#20 range with Pache likely in the Top 25 as well. Further, Hector Olivera and Dian Toscano are also not on my list. Even if they were young enough, so many years spent in Cuba's premier league would have kept them off. Finally, I am not a scout so take my rankings and grading system with the largest grain of salt. I believe in them, but acknowledge that other experts could disagree.
Previously Ranked: #50-#26, #25-#16
15. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Grade: C+
It wasn't exactly the season that either Ruiz or the Braves had in mind after he was acquired in the Evan Gattis trade last January. He was coming off a .293/.387/.436 slash with Lancaster (A+) as a 20 year-old and more power was expected. However, the Southern League is a bit tougher to hit in than the California League and Ruiz struggled to the tune of .233/.333/.324. It's worth noting that like many Braves prospects - especially hitters - Ruiz was pushed aggressively and had just eight plate appearances against pitchers younger than him. He also finished strong, hitting nearly .300 with 4 of his 5 HR after August 1. Another trip to Mississippi is likely in his future, though a strong spring could change things. I'm still a believer.
14. Chris Ellis, RHP, Grade: C+
Of the top prospects acquired this offseason, it's easy to forget about Ellis. A stout right-hander who was drafted in the 2014 third round out of Mississippi, Ellis has already started 15 games at AA and held his own. While he lacks the high-end talent of Sean Newcomb, who the Braves also acquired for Andrelton Simmons, Ellis had an impressive first full season of professional ball. Ellis is a breaking pitch away from being a prospect that could climb into the top 10 in no time. It's still amazing that the Angels gave up so much for Simmons. A great player, no doubt, but when you have so few prospects, surrendering Ellis and Newcomb remains a head scratcher.
13. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Grade: B-
Two things happened for Jenkins in 2015 that has never happened before in his previous three years since graduating rookie ball - he pitched above A-ball and he stayed pretty healthy. However, while there are things to like about the results, I am a bit slow to get too excited because the K/9 rate was the worst of his career and his walk rate went up. On the other hand, just staying healthy and on the mound was an accomplishment and could give us hope for better things to come. I'm still grading him on his potential and youth is on his side. Jenkins could be a breakthrough player in 2016.
12. Braxton Davidson, OF, Grade: B-
"But he only hit .242." Yes, random person, he did. At the age of 19 in the South Atlantic League. He also on-based .381 with the help of 84 walks and hit ten homers. Davidson will need to make more contact to avoid being a Cody Johnson, but I think he won't have that problem. Though he's only belted ten homers to this point, he has the raw power that could help him cruise past that total in 2016. The big question following Davidson has been whether or not he'll be able to stay in the outfield and while he probably won't be a world beater, he did enough to stick in right field last year and not completely embarrass himself. This is a good sign because his bat has more value in right field than at first base, which is considered his fallback destination. A challenge in Carolina awaits him and he won't turn 20 until June so struggles should be expected. Still...if he is able to turn it on, Davidson could be a difference maker in any lineup.
11. Austin Riley, 3B, Grade: B-
From intriguing prep pitching arm to one of the best hitting prospects in the system in a blink of an eye. After the draft, Riley spent 30 games each at the GCL level and with Danville and hammered 12 homers along the way with a .304/.389/.544 composite slash. Yes, it was only 252 PA and yeah, he struck out 65 times...but we're talking about a kid who doesn't turn 19 until April 2. It's difficult to rank Riley considering his relative inexperience, but it's hard not to push him toward the Top 10 with that kind of start. Now, the fun part begins - can he repeat his success in 2016? He joins a talent-rich Rome squad that should be exciting to watch and more eyeballs than normal will be on him. If he continues to hit, the sky is the limit for this kid.
10. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Grade: B
Is the clock starting to run out on Manny as a prospect? To a degree. He'll turn 25 in a month and started just professional career eight years ago. Injuries limited him considerably with 2016 marking the first season since 2011 that he threw at least a 100 innings. He also picked up his first shutout since 2011 as well while with Gwinnett, where he was excellent before earning a promotion to the majors. The results once promoted to the bigs started well, but the production declined before he was hurt and couldn't stay on the mound. Since injuries have taken some of his velocity, he's been relegated to a change-of-speed guy who will need to improve his location to be effective as a starter at the major league level. Still a shot he transitions into a decent LOOGY option down the line, but Atlanta will give him plenty of opportunity to be a rotation fixture first.
9. Mallex Smith, OF, Grade: B
It's easy to become overly excited about Mallex. The speed stands out at first, but its value increases when you look at Mallex's on-base skills. Over four seasons, he has a .380 OBP in the minors. But then you look at the power numbers and it's just as easy to be a bit discouraged. He had an .080 ISO last season, which is about his career norm so far. That gives him very little margin for error. It's difficult for an outfielder to post 4 WAR seasons without a .100 or better ISO. The walks help Mallex in this case and if he's able to improve his defense, which has only garnered okayish grades so far, he could definitely do that. In the end, Mallex needs all the things that he currently does to translate - hit for average, get walks, steal bases, stay in center. If any of these fade, his value is closer to 4th outfielder than the guy many are convinced will shift Ender Inciarte to left when he arrives this summer. Still, I like his chances to become a leadoff hitter in the majors much higher than Jose Peraza.
8. Max Fried, LHP, Grade: B+
At 22, Fried has just 147 innings of professional ball since the Padres made him the 7th overall pick of the 2012 draft. Even with that in mind, there are likely a few organizations out there where Fried would be their top pitching prospect right now. With a major-league quality curveball and great velocity, Fried has drawn comparisons to Cole Hamels. While the Braves will certainly baby him in 2016, the hope is that if Fried can get a hundred of innings in and pitch at AA, he'll be on a path that will get him into the major league picture before the end of 2017.
7. Lucas Sims, LHP, Grade: B+
Selected 13 picks after Fried in 2012, Sims has experienced a much healthier climb, but was bogged down by struggles in the Carolina League. That's a bit surprising because the Carolina League is typically forgiving for pitchers, but Sims was also very young for the level. He got off to a poor start in a return trip in 2015, but had back-to-back good performances before the Carolina bus accident sidelined him. After missing over a month, he came back for a brief run in Carolina before moving up to Mississippi. Outside of one bad outing against Birmingham, he was very stout with the M-Braves, striking out a season-high 10 against Pensacola and pitching into the sixth inning in each of his final six starts. He finished with an impressive 11-inning run in Arizona where he struck out 11 and walked just three. After coming off a disappointing season in 2014, Sims has momentum back on his side.
6. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Grade: B+
With Toussaint, there are few pitchers with more raw stuff. His curveball can be absolutely lethal and his fastball has amazing movement. The problem is getting Toussaint to throw strikes consistently and that can come with more experience. Cleaning up his mechanics will help considerably and at 19, he has plenty of time to get there. The Braves will likely keep the kid gloves on him for the next few seasons and progress him through the system with care. Very few pitchers have the best case scenario as a #2 - maybe even #1 - but Toussaint has that if he can develop an off-speed delivery to compliment his fastball/curve combo (plus mechanics and control, of course). It's going to be fun to watch him try to put it all together and if you can see him pitch this year, you better go. You might see a stinker or you might see him throw six hitless innings like he did against Lakewood last July 20th. That was just his 24th career game.
Next week, I'll post the Top 5 Braves prospects at my other website, atlantabraves.about.com.
Saturday, February 6, 2016
2016 Top 50 Prospects - #25-#16
Last week, I began my Top 50 for 2016 with the first half of the list. I won't finish the list this week, but the next ten will be revealed. In a deep farm system, several players that are mentioned today could rank much higher if the top 15 wasn't so good.
A couple of notes. My list does not include Derian Cruz or Christian Pache, the top prospects from last year's international class. Other blogs will include them, but unless the player has actually suited up, they don't make my list. If they did, Cruz would have been in the #10-#20 range with Pache likely in the Top 25 as well. Further, Hector Olivera and Dian Toscano are also not on my list. Even if they were young enough, so many years spent in Cuba's premier league would have kept them off. Finally, I am not a scout so take my rankings and grading system with the largest grain of salt. I believe in them, but acknowledge that other experts could disagree.
25. Randy Ventura, OF, Grade: C
It's hard to get too excited about a speedster with one year under his belt in the Dominican Summer League, but Ventura is one of those players that could be a fast riser if he can keep getting on base. The outfielder signed late last season and played most of the DSL's 2015 season as a must-see attraction. In 58 games, he swiped 55-of-64 bases. He also hit .329 and walked more than he struck out while grounding into just one double play all year. Now, the fun part begins - Ventura gets a chance to prove that 2015 wasn't a fluke. Working in his favor is his age (he won't turn 18 until July) and ridiculous burst on the basepaths. However, the switchhitter has no power and at 5'9", it's unlikely he'll add enough muscle to have many .100+ ISO seasons. He'll also need to cut down on the defensive miscues in center and provide value there, but I've heard reports he has the instincts to stay in center. On the high end, he could be a .300ish hitter with good leadoff skills and great stolen base numbers. On the low end, he could be cut by 2018 after not progressing. He should begin this season with the GCL Braves or Danville after fully coming back from a car accident that ended his season last year a week or two early.
24. Andrew Thurman, RHP, Grade: C
A 2nd rounder by the Astros in 2013 out of Cal-Irvine, Thurman came to the Braves last winter in the Evan Gattis trade. At the time, he had spent two years at short-season and low-A ball with unimpressive results. That didn't stop him from getting off to a great start with Carolina. In his first six starts, he threw at least five innings every time and in five of those six outings, Thurman was charged with two or fewer runs. It was the kind of start that gets you a quick promotion, but a bus crash in May that disabled several Mudcats slowed his momentum. He missed nearly two months before getting back to action with some rehab starts in the Gulf Coast League before returning to Carolina. He mostly struggled in five starts, but got his feet wet with a month in Mississippi to end 2015. Overall, his results took a hit. His great walk numbers evaporated in Mississippi while his nice and tidy ERA at the start of the year climbed steadily after his return. His year ended with bad numbers in the Arizona Fall League. A nice college starter, Thurman added velocity after he was drafted and has developing secondary pitches. Ultimately, he could develop into a decent swingman starter, but will need his pitches to develop a lot quicker to threaten the starting rotation in the majors.
23. Juan Yepez, 1B/3B, Grade: C+
He didn't turn heads quite like Austin Riley did, but Yepez posted some impressive stats of his own in 2015. Frank Wren's last big international signing, Yepez slashed .299/.364/.458 while splitting nearly equal time between the GCL Braves and Danville. He hit a quartet of homers and stole 3 bases. However, the biggest thing hurting Yepez's value might be found in his fielding numbers. Of the 51 games he played in the field during 2015, only six (44 ING) occurred at third base. With his offensive profile, he makes for an intriguing offensive third baseman. His prospect status is not nearly as high if he's playing first. Now, the presence of Riley probably played a role, but the concern about Yepez when he signed was that his long-term position might be at first. However, if Yepez continues to parlay his quick, loose swing into big numbers, people will care less about being stuck at first.
22. Robert Whalen, RHP, Grade: C+
Part of the Juan Uribe/Kelly Johnson deal, Whalen carried a bit of a higher grade than the other pitcher (John Gant) acquired in the trade. However, Whalen would only make a trio of starts after the trade before undergoing surgery on both knees to fix some pain he had been dealing with. Nothing is overly impressive about Whalen on the surface, but a 2.48 ERA over nearly 240 innings before the age of 22 is still kind of fun. The big goals for Whalen in 2016 is to stay healthy and a return of his previous strikeout rates would also help. If ready for opening day, I imagine he'll be back in Carolina but Atlanta is certainly hopeful he'll be in Mississippi before August.
21. Max Povse, RHP, Grade: C+
It's hard to miss the former UNC-Greensboro righty. He's 6'8" with a Twitter pic that only makes him look like even more of a giant. He also could be an interesting piece for the future if he can continue to spot his pitches and keep the ball in the yard. After nearly 50 innings with Danville in 2014, Povse moved to Rome to open last season and was rather good there to the tune of 3.1 K/BB and just 2 HR allowed in 59.2 ING. A late June promotion to Carolina didn't continue his success and after one inning on July 20, his season came to a close due to undisclosed injuries. I like his chances of realizing his potential, though that potential might only lead Povse to max out as a productive bullpen piece.
20. John Gant, RHP, Grade: C+
At the time of the trade with the Mets, Gant was considered to be closer to the majors than Whalen, but had a lower ceiling. Apparently, nobody told Gant, who blitzed the Southern League after the trade to the tune of a 1.99 ERA and over a strikeout an inning. That success is a complete turnaround from his 11 games with Binghamton in the AA-Eastern League. A closer look at each spot's BABIP might help explain that (.337 vs. .273 with Mississippi). With limited velocity, Gant relies on deception from a changeup that has similar sink to his fastball. If he can add a better breaking pitch - or upgrade his curveball - Gant could become a decent bottom-of-the-rotation fixture either in Atlanta or elsewhere. If he pitches up to his professional results so far during the upcoming season at Gwinnett (3.24 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.8 K/BB, 43-51% GB%), Gant could be in Atlanta as soon as this season.
19. Mike Soroka, RHP, Grade: C+
My ranking pales in comparison to Baseball Prospectus, who ranked the 18 year-old #7 in their Braves' Top 10. Drafted with the #77th overall pick last June, Soroka is a Canadian righty with a plus fastball in stuff and control (velocity maxes out at about 94 mph) plus a great changeup that he has much more control of than pitchers 3-5 years older than him. Where Soroka has made up some of his perceived weaknesses is with a breaking ball, a curveball. While not a plus pitch - at least not yet - it's good enough to give hitters something else to think about. The development of his curve led the Braves to aggressively push Soroka up to Danville to finish 2015. His results weren't as sparkling as they were with the GCL Braves, but a peak at his overall numbers uncovers this amazing nugget - 7.4 K/BB. Now, that's just 34 innings in which he walked five and struck out 37, but we are talking about a guy who didn't turn 18 until last August 4th. That's a very impressive start. More of the same will get him closer to single-digits on my list. Braves might hold him back when Rome's season begins, but I do expect him in Rome sometime this summer.
18. Dustin Peterson, OF, Grade: C+
It'd be easy to ignore that Peterson keeps playing young for his level, but with already over 240 games above rookie ball, the now-21 year-old is off to a quick start to his career. His results haven't been thoroughly impressive by any means, but I still believe the raw power is there. It'll have to be after the Braves moved him away from third base, limiting his overall potential. Peterson has an older brother D.J. that will beat him to the majors, but Dustin has a shot to join him if his in-game power begins to show. While youth has likely stifled his numbers as he has been really young for each year's level, it's time to start seeing some production as he heads into his third full-season year.
17. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, Grade: C+
One thing that has been quickly apparent under the Holy John Trinity is that young players get pushed quickly. Sanchez was the youngest player in the South Atlantic League last year and signed as a 16 year-old less than three years ago. The results with Rome weren't very pretty. He walked too many batters and struggled to stay on the mound before his season ended in mid-July. The lefty out of Venezuela sports a smooth, repeatable delivery and his velocity sits comfortably in the mid-90's. He has a curveball that could become a plus pitch and a ticket to the majors - at least in a relief capacity. His changeup will likely decide if he can start in the majors. Fortunately, he's got a lot of time and turns just 19 in April. 2016 could be a great bounceback season for him.
16. Zachary Bird, RHP, Grade: C+
Maybe the player most often forgot in the mega deal involving Alex Wood and Hector Olivera last July, Bird has seen slow progression during his minor league run since signing as a ninth rounder in 2012. Still just 21, Bird has great size, improving stuff, and looks the part of the durable middle-of-the-rotation arm who won't be an All-Star often, but will routinely crank out solid campaigns. To become that, he'll need to develop either his curveball or changeup to the point where one of them becomes a consistent third pitch. His slider flashes plus ability while his fastball hits the mid-90's with sink - a profile that could keep a relief option open if the third pitch never really develops. I'm ranking him under the belief that he'll be able to develop that third pitch and become a Jason Hammel-type - a durable, innings eater who gives you 170-200 innings, a good strikeout rate, and 2-3 WAR seasons. That player is valuable. Just ask J.A. Happ who turned a season like that into $36M.
I meant to get this posted a few days ago, but I've been sick so my time schedule has lagged. Next week - hopefully Thursday - I'll release the next ten as we start to get into B-grade prospects and the creme of the crop the system has to offer.
A couple of notes. My list does not include Derian Cruz or Christian Pache, the top prospects from last year's international class. Other blogs will include them, but unless the player has actually suited up, they don't make my list. If they did, Cruz would have been in the #10-#20 range with Pache likely in the Top 25 as well. Further, Hector Olivera and Dian Toscano are also not on my list. Even if they were young enough, so many years spent in Cuba's premier league would have kept them off. Finally, I am not a scout so take my rankings and grading system with the largest grain of salt. I believe in them, but acknowledge that other experts could disagree.
25. Randy Ventura, OF, Grade: C
It's hard to get too excited about a speedster with one year under his belt in the Dominican Summer League, but Ventura is one of those players that could be a fast riser if he can keep getting on base. The outfielder signed late last season and played most of the DSL's 2015 season as a must-see attraction. In 58 games, he swiped 55-of-64 bases. He also hit .329 and walked more than he struck out while grounding into just one double play all year. Now, the fun part begins - Ventura gets a chance to prove that 2015 wasn't a fluke. Working in his favor is his age (he won't turn 18 until July) and ridiculous burst on the basepaths. However, the switchhitter has no power and at 5'9", it's unlikely he'll add enough muscle to have many .100+ ISO seasons. He'll also need to cut down on the defensive miscues in center and provide value there, but I've heard reports he has the instincts to stay in center. On the high end, he could be a .300ish hitter with good leadoff skills and great stolen base numbers. On the low end, he could be cut by 2018 after not progressing. He should begin this season with the GCL Braves or Danville after fully coming back from a car accident that ended his season last year a week or two early.
24. Andrew Thurman, RHP, Grade: C
A 2nd rounder by the Astros in 2013 out of Cal-Irvine, Thurman came to the Braves last winter in the Evan Gattis trade. At the time, he had spent two years at short-season and low-A ball with unimpressive results. That didn't stop him from getting off to a great start with Carolina. In his first six starts, he threw at least five innings every time and in five of those six outings, Thurman was charged with two or fewer runs. It was the kind of start that gets you a quick promotion, but a bus crash in May that disabled several Mudcats slowed his momentum. He missed nearly two months before getting back to action with some rehab starts in the Gulf Coast League before returning to Carolina. He mostly struggled in five starts, but got his feet wet with a month in Mississippi to end 2015. Overall, his results took a hit. His great walk numbers evaporated in Mississippi while his nice and tidy ERA at the start of the year climbed steadily after his return. His year ended with bad numbers in the Arizona Fall League. A nice college starter, Thurman added velocity after he was drafted and has developing secondary pitches. Ultimately, he could develop into a decent swingman starter, but will need his pitches to develop a lot quicker to threaten the starting rotation in the majors.
23. Juan Yepez, 1B/3B, Grade: C+
He didn't turn heads quite like Austin Riley did, but Yepez posted some impressive stats of his own in 2015. Frank Wren's last big international signing, Yepez slashed .299/.364/.458 while splitting nearly equal time between the GCL Braves and Danville. He hit a quartet of homers and stole 3 bases. However, the biggest thing hurting Yepez's value might be found in his fielding numbers. Of the 51 games he played in the field during 2015, only six (44 ING) occurred at third base. With his offensive profile, he makes for an intriguing offensive third baseman. His prospect status is not nearly as high if he's playing first. Now, the presence of Riley probably played a role, but the concern about Yepez when he signed was that his long-term position might be at first. However, if Yepez continues to parlay his quick, loose swing into big numbers, people will care less about being stuck at first.
22. Robert Whalen, RHP, Grade: C+
Part of the Juan Uribe/Kelly Johnson deal, Whalen carried a bit of a higher grade than the other pitcher (John Gant) acquired in the trade. However, Whalen would only make a trio of starts after the trade before undergoing surgery on both knees to fix some pain he had been dealing with. Nothing is overly impressive about Whalen on the surface, but a 2.48 ERA over nearly 240 innings before the age of 22 is still kind of fun. The big goals for Whalen in 2016 is to stay healthy and a return of his previous strikeout rates would also help. If ready for opening day, I imagine he'll be back in Carolina but Atlanta is certainly hopeful he'll be in Mississippi before August.
21. Max Povse, RHP, Grade: C+
It's hard to miss the former UNC-Greensboro righty. He's 6'8" with a Twitter pic that only makes him look like even more of a giant. He also could be an interesting piece for the future if he can continue to spot his pitches and keep the ball in the yard. After nearly 50 innings with Danville in 2014, Povse moved to Rome to open last season and was rather good there to the tune of 3.1 K/BB and just 2 HR allowed in 59.2 ING. A late June promotion to Carolina didn't continue his success and after one inning on July 20, his season came to a close due to undisclosed injuries. I like his chances of realizing his potential, though that potential might only lead Povse to max out as a productive bullpen piece.
20. John Gant, RHP, Grade: C+
At the time of the trade with the Mets, Gant was considered to be closer to the majors than Whalen, but had a lower ceiling. Apparently, nobody told Gant, who blitzed the Southern League after the trade to the tune of a 1.99 ERA and over a strikeout an inning. That success is a complete turnaround from his 11 games with Binghamton in the AA-Eastern League. A closer look at each spot's BABIP might help explain that (.337 vs. .273 with Mississippi). With limited velocity, Gant relies on deception from a changeup that has similar sink to his fastball. If he can add a better breaking pitch - or upgrade his curveball - Gant could become a decent bottom-of-the-rotation fixture either in Atlanta or elsewhere. If he pitches up to his professional results so far during the upcoming season at Gwinnett (3.24 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 2.8 K/BB, 43-51% GB%), Gant could be in Atlanta as soon as this season.
19. Mike Soroka, RHP, Grade: C+
My ranking pales in comparison to Baseball Prospectus, who ranked the 18 year-old #7 in their Braves' Top 10. Drafted with the #77th overall pick last June, Soroka is a Canadian righty with a plus fastball in stuff and control (velocity maxes out at about 94 mph) plus a great changeup that he has much more control of than pitchers 3-5 years older than him. Where Soroka has made up some of his perceived weaknesses is with a breaking ball, a curveball. While not a plus pitch - at least not yet - it's good enough to give hitters something else to think about. The development of his curve led the Braves to aggressively push Soroka up to Danville to finish 2015. His results weren't as sparkling as they were with the GCL Braves, but a peak at his overall numbers uncovers this amazing nugget - 7.4 K/BB. Now, that's just 34 innings in which he walked five and struck out 37, but we are talking about a guy who didn't turn 18 until last August 4th. That's a very impressive start. More of the same will get him closer to single-digits on my list. Braves might hold him back when Rome's season begins, but I do expect him in Rome sometime this summer.
18. Dustin Peterson, OF, Grade: C+
It'd be easy to ignore that Peterson keeps playing young for his level, but with already over 240 games above rookie ball, the now-21 year-old is off to a quick start to his career. His results haven't been thoroughly impressive by any means, but I still believe the raw power is there. It'll have to be after the Braves moved him away from third base, limiting his overall potential. Peterson has an older brother D.J. that will beat him to the majors, but Dustin has a shot to join him if his in-game power begins to show. While youth has likely stifled his numbers as he has been really young for each year's level, it's time to start seeing some production as he heads into his third full-season year.
17. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, Grade: C+
One thing that has been quickly apparent under the Holy John Trinity is that young players get pushed quickly. Sanchez was the youngest player in the South Atlantic League last year and signed as a 16 year-old less than three years ago. The results with Rome weren't very pretty. He walked too many batters and struggled to stay on the mound before his season ended in mid-July. The lefty out of Venezuela sports a smooth, repeatable delivery and his velocity sits comfortably in the mid-90's. He has a curveball that could become a plus pitch and a ticket to the majors - at least in a relief capacity. His changeup will likely decide if he can start in the majors. Fortunately, he's got a lot of time and turns just 19 in April. 2016 could be a great bounceback season for him.
16. Zachary Bird, RHP, Grade: C+
Maybe the player most often forgot in the mega deal involving Alex Wood and Hector Olivera last July, Bird has seen slow progression during his minor league run since signing as a ninth rounder in 2012. Still just 21, Bird has great size, improving stuff, and looks the part of the durable middle-of-the-rotation arm who won't be an All-Star often, but will routinely crank out solid campaigns. To become that, he'll need to develop either his curveball or changeup to the point where one of them becomes a consistent third pitch. His slider flashes plus ability while his fastball hits the mid-90's with sink - a profile that could keep a relief option open if the third pitch never really develops. I'm ranking him under the belief that he'll be able to develop that third pitch and become a Jason Hammel-type - a durable, innings eater who gives you 170-200 innings, a good strikeout rate, and 2-3 WAR seasons. That player is valuable. Just ask J.A. Happ who turned a season like that into $36M.
I meant to get this posted a few days ago, but I've been sick so my time schedule has lagged. Next week - hopefully Thursday - I'll release the next ten as we start to get into B-grade prospects and the creme of the crop the system has to offer.
Saturday, January 30, 2016
2016 Top 50 Prospects - First Half Revealed!
Spring Training is just around the corner so it's a good time to revisit the top prospects list here at Walkoffwalk.net. Some new changes for this year include an expansion of the list from a Top 30 to a Top 50. Also, the top 5 prospects will be revealed in February at my other blog, AtlantaBraves.About.com. In the meantime, let's look at the bottom of the list.
A couple of notes. My list does not include Derian Cruz or Christian Pache, the top prospects from last year's international class. Other blogs will include them, but unless the player has actually suited up, they don't make my list. If they did, Cruz would have been in the #10-#20 range with Pache likely in the Top 25 as well. Further, Hector Olivera and Dian Toscano are also not on my list. Even if they were young enough, so many years spent in Cuba's premier league would have kept them off. Finally, I am not a scout so take my rankings and grading system with the largest grain of salt. I believe in them, but acknowledge that other experts could disagree.
Players just missing my Top 50 - Pitchers Brandon Barker, Matt Custred, Steve Janas, Wes Parsons, Jorge Zavala, catcher Willians Astudillo, and infielders Anthony Concepcion, Carlos Franco, and Omar Obregon.
Top 50
50. OF Leudys Baez
49. LHP Kyle Kinman
48. LHP Brady Feigl
47. C Tanner Murphy
46. 3B Jordan Edgerton
45. 2B Luke Dykstra
44. OF Stephen Gaylor
43. C Jonathan Morales
42. RHP Chad Sobotka
41. RHP Caleb Beech
40. OF Joseph Daris
39. LHP Matt Marksberry
38. OF Keith Curcio
37. LHP Dilmer Mejia
36. RHP Ryan Clark
Some observations:...there is still some interesting talent near the bottom of my list....Sobotka has some believers, but I've soured on him. Could be a riser by midseason....Still like Mejia's future; just looking for a bounceback effort....Morales the most interesting bat from this collection for me....lot of left-hand relievers who have a good chance to see action for the Braves this year.
35. Jason Hursh, RHP, Grade: C
- The "safe" drafting of college arms produced Mike Minor, Sean Gilmartin, and Hursh out of first round picks. I don't hate on Frank Wren like others, but that's damning. Hursh had to be disappointed with a return to Mississippi, but his results were awful. A late season move to the pen produced a promotion, but sinkerball pitchers who lack pinpoint control, nor the ability to strikeout batters rarely make for good relievers. If he has a good spring, hopefully the Braves trade him.
34. Ronald Acuna, OF, Grade: C
- The Braves thought so much of Acuna's maturity to let him begin his professional career in the Gulf Coast League as a 17 year-old. He rewarded their faith and they gave him three-to-four weeks in Danville to end the year. A triple slash of .269/.380/.438 from a player who logged one plate appearance all year against a pitcher younger than him? Wow. It's going to be interesting to see if Atlanta remains aggressive with Acuna into 2016 with a Rome assignment or if they let him start later with Danville. Either way, he's got x-factor potential if he can continue to progress and stay in center field, where he played all but six games last year.
33. Ricardo Rodriguez, C, Grade: C
- Picked up in the Christian Bethancourt trade, Rodriguez just turned 18 a month ago. He's raw at the plate, but has high potential as an excellent backstop with power. Baseball America named him the 21st best prospect in the 2014 international signing period so there is some higher ceiling for his game than others. Also have to love that he's already made his debut in the states, even if it was just two games with in the Arizona Summer League. Likely ticketed for a prime role with one of the rookie teams in 2016, Rodriguez will be brought along slowly.
32. Connor Lien, OF, Grade: C
- I feel I'm late to the Lien fanclub. The nearly 22 year-old will be entering his fifth season after an eye-opening 2015. His numbers were improvements across the board and his defense drew great praise. He's plenty capable of playing a major-league quality center field and has some pop in his bat. I'd like to see him cut down his strikeouts and take more walks, though. His stolen base total saw a big climb from 16-to-34, but he was caught 12 times. Outfield is going to be a tough place to break through in Atlanta with long-term assets like Hector Olivera, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte, and Mallex Smith in the way. A continued boost to his OPS for the fourth straight season would help Lien.
31. Isranel Wilson, OF, Grade: C
- The new scouting-and-development team took over last winter and have already added a lot of talent to the system. One of those players was Wilson, who was signed late in the 2014-15 signing period. Another aggressive push by the Braves, the 17 year-old skipped the Dominican Summer League and OPS'd .828 with the GCL Braves. He belted ten homeruns as well, giving the organization one of their few exciting power threats. There are problems, of course. His average of .222 looks bad, though he walked at an excellent rate. You'd like to see the strikeouts come down, too, but if the power is real, that's something you can deal with. Likely set for a Danville assignment, Wilson could join Acuna in Rome if both continued to be aggressively pushed.
30. Daniel Winkler, RHP, Grade: C
- In Winkler, the Braves have a lottery ticket. Now, the prize isn't Powerball level, but it's a nice scratcher. You can get a guy who could rack up strikeouts with good control. On the other hand, you might have nothing. Winkler, a Rule 5 pick last year, has an advantage on other Rule 5 picks in that he has had entire year with his organization, despite pitching just 1.2 innings in 2015 before a seven game run in the Arizona Fall League. That was a result of Tommy John surgery that ended his 2014 prematurely. To keep Winkler, the Braves will still have to roster him for most of the first couple of months of 2016 so he's still going to have to show something. The good thing is that at his best, he was damn good (1.41 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 4.2 K/BB with Tulsa before the injury). He'll probably get an extended look to make the team and while he has plenty of starting experience, the best bet is that Winkler has a foot in to make the roster as a bullpen player.
29. Ryan Weber, RHP, Grade: C
- Raise your hand if you knew Ryan Weber would make his major league debut in 2015. You're a liar if your arm moved at all. Weber had been an A-ball fixture for four years before finally having one ugly year with Mississippi in 2014. Then...magic happened. He continued to bounce back-and-forth between the rotation and bullpen, but over nearly 100 minor league innings, he walked a scant ten batters. I hate to Greg Maddux any poor young pitcher because God knows Kris Medlen heard the comparison enough, but nothing says Madduxian more than a 0.9 BB/9. By the end of the year, he became starter #10 to get his shot with the Braves. He had one really bad game, but was pretty good otherwise and gave the team at least six innings in 4-of-5 starts, including a 7-inning, 1-R, 10-K outing on October 1 against the Nats. His xFIP (3.42) and SIERA (3.29) make me want to be a believer (or beweber?), but his 109 cFIP makes me skeptical. Plus, his 66% GB% rate will likely decline to a degree. I like him from a plucky underdog standpoint, but I have my concerns.
28. Johan Camargo, SS, Grade: C
- I was surprised that Baseball Prospectus, when they did the Top 10 list for the Braves, mentioned five interesting players including Camargo since talents that missed their Top 10 include Braxton Davidson, Tyrell Jenkins, Chris Ellis, and Juan Yepez. Camargo is a fun prospect, don't get me wrong. While he lacks some of the instincts at this point to play a smooth shortstop, he has a plus arm. A switch-hitter who has often played young for his level, Camargo has held his own and shows some plate discipline. There's potential here to be a utility bench player with a chance to be a second-division starter. I just want to see more offense first.
27. Mauricio Cabrera, RHP, Grade: C
- In a system with some great pitching prospects, few match Cabrera's high-end combination of stuff and velocity. Unfortunately, he doesn't always know where it's going. He has a closer-worthy fastball and slider combination that could easily bring him to the majors in a hurry if only he can handle them. Until then, we'll simply be in awe over the triple-digit velocity and the isolated moments where he seems to put it all together only to fall apart the next outing.
26. Lucas Herbert, C, Grade: C
- His selection was one of the most interesting picks of the 2015 draft. Kolby Allard's battery mate at San Clemente High School, many thought he was drafted at least somewhat for that reason. That's a bit unfair as Herbert, who was drafted #54th overall, was tabbed as the #52nd overall prospect entering the draft by Baseball America. He signed well before his more famous teammate and was ready to be the primary catcher for the GCL Braves before meniscus tear ended his season after just three games. He returned for the fall instructional league and will be on target for a bigger role in 2016. He's already a superb defensive catcher, but will he hit? He's expected to have power, but he has a bit of an odd swing where he doesn't really utilize his lower torso. But if he hits, he'll be a Top 10 prospect within a year or two - even in this system.
I'm actually a couple of days late with this so I hope to get the next issue with prospects #16-#25 on Thursday. Thanks for reading and remember to share in your Braves facebook groups and on Twitter!
A couple of notes. My list does not include Derian Cruz or Christian Pache, the top prospects from last year's international class. Other blogs will include them, but unless the player has actually suited up, they don't make my list. If they did, Cruz would have been in the #10-#20 range with Pache likely in the Top 25 as well. Further, Hector Olivera and Dian Toscano are also not on my list. Even if they were young enough, so many years spent in Cuba's premier league would have kept them off. Finally, I am not a scout so take my rankings and grading system with the largest grain of salt. I believe in them, but acknowledge that other experts could disagree.
Players just missing my Top 50 - Pitchers Brandon Barker, Matt Custred, Steve Janas, Wes Parsons, Jorge Zavala, catcher Willians Astudillo, and infielders Anthony Concepcion, Carlos Franco, and Omar Obregon.
Top 50
50. OF Leudys Baez
49. LHP Kyle Kinman
48. LHP Brady Feigl
47. C Tanner Murphy
46. 3B Jordan Edgerton
45. 2B Luke Dykstra
44. OF Stephen Gaylor
43. C Jonathan Morales
42. RHP Chad Sobotka
41. RHP Caleb Beech
40. OF Joseph Daris
39. LHP Matt Marksberry
38. OF Keith Curcio
37. LHP Dilmer Mejia
36. RHP Ryan Clark
Some observations:...there is still some interesting talent near the bottom of my list....Sobotka has some believers, but I've soured on him. Could be a riser by midseason....Still like Mejia's future; just looking for a bounceback effort....Morales the most interesting bat from this collection for me....lot of left-hand relievers who have a good chance to see action for the Braves this year.
 |
| Hursh (Elsa/Getty) |
- The "safe" drafting of college arms produced Mike Minor, Sean Gilmartin, and Hursh out of first round picks. I don't hate on Frank Wren like others, but that's damning. Hursh had to be disappointed with a return to Mississippi, but his results were awful. A late season move to the pen produced a promotion, but sinkerball pitchers who lack pinpoint control, nor the ability to strikeout batters rarely make for good relievers. If he has a good spring, hopefully the Braves trade him.
34. Ronald Acuna, OF, Grade: C
- The Braves thought so much of Acuna's maturity to let him begin his professional career in the Gulf Coast League as a 17 year-old. He rewarded their faith and they gave him three-to-four weeks in Danville to end the year. A triple slash of .269/.380/.438 from a player who logged one plate appearance all year against a pitcher younger than him? Wow. It's going to be interesting to see if Atlanta remains aggressive with Acuna into 2016 with a Rome assignment or if they let him start later with Danville. Either way, he's got x-factor potential if he can continue to progress and stay in center field, where he played all but six games last year.
33. Ricardo Rodriguez, C, Grade: C
- Picked up in the Christian Bethancourt trade, Rodriguez just turned 18 a month ago. He's raw at the plate, but has high potential as an excellent backstop with power. Baseball America named him the 21st best prospect in the 2014 international signing period so there is some higher ceiling for his game than others. Also have to love that he's already made his debut in the states, even if it was just two games with in the Arizona Summer League. Likely ticketed for a prime role with one of the rookie teams in 2016, Rodriguez will be brought along slowly.
32. Connor Lien, OF, Grade: C
- I feel I'm late to the Lien fanclub. The nearly 22 year-old will be entering his fifth season after an eye-opening 2015. His numbers were improvements across the board and his defense drew great praise. He's plenty capable of playing a major-league quality center field and has some pop in his bat. I'd like to see him cut down his strikeouts and take more walks, though. His stolen base total saw a big climb from 16-to-34, but he was caught 12 times. Outfield is going to be a tough place to break through in Atlanta with long-term assets like Hector Olivera, Nick Markakis, Ender Inciarte, and Mallex Smith in the way. A continued boost to his OPS for the fourth straight season would help Lien.
31. Isranel Wilson, OF, Grade: C
- The new scouting-and-development team took over last winter and have already added a lot of talent to the system. One of those players was Wilson, who was signed late in the 2014-15 signing period. Another aggressive push by the Braves, the 17 year-old skipped the Dominican Summer League and OPS'd .828 with the GCL Braves. He belted ten homeruns as well, giving the organization one of their few exciting power threats. There are problems, of course. His average of .222 looks bad, though he walked at an excellent rate. You'd like to see the strikeouts come down, too, but if the power is real, that's something you can deal with. Likely set for a Danville assignment, Wilson could join Acuna in Rome if both continued to be aggressively pushed.
 |
| Winkler (Joe Skipper/Getty) |
- In Winkler, the Braves have a lottery ticket. Now, the prize isn't Powerball level, but it's a nice scratcher. You can get a guy who could rack up strikeouts with good control. On the other hand, you might have nothing. Winkler, a Rule 5 pick last year, has an advantage on other Rule 5 picks in that he has had entire year with his organization, despite pitching just 1.2 innings in 2015 before a seven game run in the Arizona Fall League. That was a result of Tommy John surgery that ended his 2014 prematurely. To keep Winkler, the Braves will still have to roster him for most of the first couple of months of 2016 so he's still going to have to show something. The good thing is that at his best, he was damn good (1.41 ERA, 0.71 WHIP, 4.2 K/BB with Tulsa before the injury). He'll probably get an extended look to make the team and while he has plenty of starting experience, the best bet is that Winkler has a foot in to make the roster as a bullpen player.
 |
| Weber (S. Cunningham/Getty) |
- Raise your hand if you knew Ryan Weber would make his major league debut in 2015. You're a liar if your arm moved at all. Weber had been an A-ball fixture for four years before finally having one ugly year with Mississippi in 2014. Then...magic happened. He continued to bounce back-and-forth between the rotation and bullpen, but over nearly 100 minor league innings, he walked a scant ten batters. I hate to Greg Maddux any poor young pitcher because God knows Kris Medlen heard the comparison enough, but nothing says Madduxian more than a 0.9 BB/9. By the end of the year, he became starter #10 to get his shot with the Braves. He had one really bad game, but was pretty good otherwise and gave the team at least six innings in 4-of-5 starts, including a 7-inning, 1-R, 10-K outing on October 1 against the Nats. His xFIP (3.42) and SIERA (3.29) make me want to be a believer (or beweber?), but his 109 cFIP makes me skeptical. Plus, his 66% GB% rate will likely decline to a degree. I like him from a plucky underdog standpoint, but I have my concerns.
28. Johan Camargo, SS, Grade: C
- I was surprised that Baseball Prospectus, when they did the Top 10 list for the Braves, mentioned five interesting players including Camargo since talents that missed their Top 10 include Braxton Davidson, Tyrell Jenkins, Chris Ellis, and Juan Yepez. Camargo is a fun prospect, don't get me wrong. While he lacks some of the instincts at this point to play a smooth shortstop, he has a plus arm. A switch-hitter who has often played young for his level, Camargo has held his own and shows some plate discipline. There's potential here to be a utility bench player with a chance to be a second-division starter. I just want to see more offense first.
 |
| Cabrera (Elsa/Getty) |
27. Mauricio Cabrera, RHP, Grade: C
- In a system with some great pitching prospects, few match Cabrera's high-end combination of stuff and velocity. Unfortunately, he doesn't always know where it's going. He has a closer-worthy fastball and slider combination that could easily bring him to the majors in a hurry if only he can handle them. Until then, we'll simply be in awe over the triple-digit velocity and the isolated moments where he seems to put it all together only to fall apart the next outing.
26. Lucas Herbert, C, Grade: C
- His selection was one of the most interesting picks of the 2015 draft. Kolby Allard's battery mate at San Clemente High School, many thought he was drafted at least somewhat for that reason. That's a bit unfair as Herbert, who was drafted #54th overall, was tabbed as the #52nd overall prospect entering the draft by Baseball America. He signed well before his more famous teammate and was ready to be the primary catcher for the GCL Braves before meniscus tear ended his season after just three games. He returned for the fall instructional league and will be on target for a bigger role in 2016. He's already a superb defensive catcher, but will he hit? He's expected to have power, but he has a bit of an odd swing where he doesn't really utilize his lower torso. But if he hits, he'll be a Top 10 prospect within a year or two - even in this system.
I'm actually a couple of days late with this so I hope to get the next issue with prospects #16-#25 on Thursday. Thanks for reading and remember to share in your Braves facebook groups and on Twitter!
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