Where the Braves Sit Right Now

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

We could sit here for some time and keep talking about the surprising dismissal of John Coppolella, in-fighting between the remaining John's (Hart and Schuerholz), the possibility of pending sanctions, and so on. And you can be sure we will address more of that when the information is available. However, like it or not, the 2017-18 Hot Stove is warming up and it's time to start looking at next year's roster.

The Braves used 49 players in 2017 - down from the 60 utilized in both of the last two seasons. Part of that was a little better luck injury-wise, but the big reason the Braves used fewer players was that they were saying the days of random players you forgot were still playing were over. With depth increasing at Triple-A, the Braves were calling on an increasingly younger collection of talent as the season progressed. Of the eleven starters they used, eight were younger than 27. The Braves were looking to the future in many regards to their player usage.

Let's take a gander at what the roster makeup for 2018 looks like right now. This is just for general information as regardless of what happens when Major League Baseball finishes their investigation, the Braves will still be active in the trade market. They'll still sign free agents. The roster will change from what it currently looks like and life will eventually get back to normal.

Speaking of free agents, the weird thing about this team is that they really only have one major league free agent. A lot of the player movement will actually come from non-tenders and trades as the Braves look to open up room on their 40-man roster.

For what it's worth, my arbitration estimates are based on similar arbitration agreements from last winter. We may take a much more robust look at arbitration-eligible players later on, but for now, I used last year's results to help guide me. For players mentioned in the coming attractions, I'm limiting it to guys I project appearing in the majors next year if healthy and productive. Each renewal is given a $545,000 contract for 2018. Some will make more while some will make less due to the nature of split contracts and earning a different salary in the minors.

Starting Pitchers
Signed: Julio Teheran ($8M)
Arbitration: Mike Foltynewicz ($2.25M -Taijuan Walker, First Year, Super 2)
Renewal: Aaron Blair, Luis Gohara, Max Fried, Sean Newcomb, Lucas Sims, Matt Wisler
Option: R.A. Dickey ($8M team option, $500K buyout)
Free Agent: None (yay!)
Coming Attractions: Kolby Allard, Tyler Pike, Mike Soroka

There is a lot of depth here, though just as many question marks. Teheran and Foltynewicz both had good stretches during the season, but each struggled for the majority of the year. Gohara and Newcomb have the stuff, but will they consistently throw it for strikes? Is Sims better suited for the bullpen? Are Blair and Wisler done for? And will the Braves bring back Dickey?

I've been struck with how confident people are that the Braves aren't looking at possibly bringing in a big arm. This rotation, as its currently constructed, could be good, but the questions are far too numerous for me to be very bullish on that prospect. As far as Dickey goes, I imagine the Braves decline his option if he's still iffy on returning on 2018 and tell him that they'll be interested in bringing him back if he changes his mind. In the meantime, they'll start to kick the tires on a big move to stabilize the rotation.

Current Projection: $13.475 million

Relief Pitchers
Signed: Jim Johnson ($4.5M)
Arbitration: Rex Brothers ($1.42M - Rex Brothers :), Third Year), Sam Freeman ($908K - Evan Scribner, First Year), Ian Krol ($1.275M - Blake Wood, 2nd Year), Arodys Vizcaino ($2.55M - Jake Diekman, Third Year, Super 2), Daniel Winkler ($850K - Bruce Rondon, First Year)
Renewal: Jacob Lindgren, Mauricio Cabrera, Jose Ramirez, Armando Rivero, Jesse Biddle, Jason Hursh, Luke Jackson, A.J. Minter, Akeel Morris, 
Free Agent: Jason Motte
Coming Attractions: Phil Pfeifer, Corbin Clouse, Devan Watts, Caleb Dirks

Don't be fooled by so many names (nearly 20) - the bullpen will need some work. For starters, there are at least two non-tenders here with Brothers and Krol - and yes, I used Brothers as an arbitration comp for himself. In addition, many of the names in the renewal department have issues either from injury (Lindgren, Biddle, Rivero) or bad-to-average 2017 numbers (Cabrera, Hursh, Jackson). That leaves Johnson, Vizcaino, Minter, Morris, and Ramirez along with safe arbitration keepers like Freeman and Winkler. While there are some reinforcements mixed in, the Braves will likely want to find a couple of established arms to help out.

Current Projection: $13.713 million

Catchers
Signed: Kurt Suzuki ($3.5M)
Arbitration: None
Renewal: David Freitas and Tony Sanchez
Option: Tyler Flowers ($4M, $300K buyout)
Coming Attractions: Kade Scivicque and Alex Jackson

Freitas and Sanchez will likely be designated for assignment soon so don't expect them to stick around. Before the Coppy mess, reports were that picking up Flowers' option was as good as done. That is likely still the plan because the value in comparison to the price is so high here. Catcher might be the easiest position to pencil in.

Current Projection: $7.5M

Infield
Signed: Freddie Freeman ($21M)
Arbitration: Matt Adams ($4.3M - Lonnie Chisenhall, Third Year), Jace Peterson ($885K - Tim Beckham, First Year)
Renewal: Adonis Garcia, Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, Johan Camargo, Rio Ruiz
Coming Attractions: Travis Demeritte, Austin Riley, Luis Valenzuela

Three of the four starting spots should be locked up with a number of cheap options for third base to fill out the infield. For what it's worth, I imagine the Braves will go cheap at third base, but there certainly is a chance they could get involved in some of the higher price options. One possible connection could formulate if Dayton Moore takes the Braves job and wants to bring Mike Moustakas with him. The arbitration cases here are both interesting. I wrote the other day that if the market doesn't develop for Adams - and I think there is a good chance it doesn't - I'd rather keep him than lose him for nothing. Peterson's poor play the last two years makes him a non-tender candidate, but a strong finish (.325/.460/.475 over his last 50 PA) may have bought him another year. He'll be out of options, but the Braves may see him as worth the investment. I don't foresee any coming attractions pushing their way on the roster this spring, but all three could appear in Atlanta by late summer next year.

Current Projection: $28.91 million

Outfield
Signed: Matt Kemp ($21.5M), Nick Markakis ($10.5M), Ender Inciarte ($4M)
Arbitration: Danny Santana ($600K, Ehire Adrianza, First Year)
Renewal: Lane Adams, Micah Johnson
Coming Attractions: Ronald Acuna, Dustin Peterson

The Braves will try to trade one of the corner outfielders this winter to open a spot for Acuna, which they may find easier said than done. As for Santana, he seems a goner due to his poor play after joining the Braves. This position isn't quite as easy to forecast as catcher, but we know there is probably going to be a mix of Inciarte, Acuna, and a veteran to be named later (likely Kemp). Micah Johnson rarely got a chance to play in Atlanta after being designated for assignment on twitter several weeks ago. Lane Adams, on the other hand, played his way into the mix to begin 2018.

Current Projection: $37.09 million

Other consideration: $2.75 million from the Padres

Roster Projection: $97.938 million

Note that this roster projection is just an estimate based both on salary arbitration figures that could be wrong and renewals that may or may not happen. Chances are that the player payroll projection right now is a bit lower than I have it, but I believe my total is a nice jumping off point.

So, let's try to put that nearly $98 million into perspective. Since 2014, the Braves have had opening day payrolls of $112M, $97M, $87M, and $123M. The last total was also last season when the Braves opened SunTrust Park. That gives me some degree of confidence to suggest that the Braves have a low-end player payroll cap of $120 million with a higher-end estimate of $130M. I'll take the difference and say that next year's cap is likely around $125 million.

Recall that the nearly $98 million total I gave you doesn't include Dickey's option and does include a number of non-tenders. The Braves may elect to go away from what I am predicting. They may also choose to non-tender someone like Matt Adams. The other way they could cut salary here is via trades - especially involving a corner outfielder. The best-case scenario involves dealing Kemp. Now, just dealing the outfielder won't add $21.5 million to the potential spending money for the Braves as they would almost certainly have to include money to facilitate a deal. But say they have to include $20M in two equal installments over the next two seasons - that's still $10M less on 2018's payroll. That's a really good reliever or two pretty good relievers.

Obviously, it's difficult to look at the future offseason because of the front office turmoil and it's unlikely to be resolved very soon. That said, there's still a team to build for 2018 and by my count, the Braves are looking at between $20 million and $30 million of spending room before the Hot Stove is actually, ya know, hot. That may not seem like a lot - the Braves spent nearly $26 million on Dickey, Bartolo Colon, and Sean Rodriguez for 2017 (minus whatever the Pirates paid for Rodriguez) - but if spent much more wisely, the investment could bring big-time dividends for the Braves as they look to turn the page.

The Youth Movement Is Finally Here

G-Braves Media

You'd be forgiven if at times this season, you said, "where's all these prospects we traded everyone I knew for?"

The opening day lineup included five players over the age of 30. Two of the five reserves used that day were over 30. That doesn't include Emilio Bonifacio, Kurt Suzuki, Jaime Garcia, Jim Johnson, Sam Freeman, or Josh Collmenter - all regular faces over the first few months who were in the Age-30 season or older. Oh, and that definitely doesn't include R.A. Dickey or Bartolo Colon, who both hit their 30's over a decade ago. For a team that was all about the rebuild, this was an old team and a guy like Jason Motte didn't help make it any younger.

It was frustrating for casual and decidedly more-than-casual fans of the team to watch as prospects began to accumulate in Gwinnett while Adonis Garcia and Eric O'Flaherty appeared with regularity and disappointment over the first few months. You may have even lost a bit of your faith in the Braves front office and management. It's okay if you did. Like I said, you're forgiven.

On Wednesday night, we witnessed the latest example of what this youth movement might mean. Facing a playoff bound team destined to win 95 or so games, the Braves beat the Nationals with ease, leaning on a young quartet of pitchers. Sure, Matt Kemp's Grand Slam was the Sportscenter highlight, but the real story of this game was the youngins.

On the mound to begin the game was Luiz Gohara, who just turned 21 on the last day of July. Embarrassed by first-game jitters his last time out, Gohara took the mound against Trea Turner, Anthony Rendon, and Ryan Zimmerman and made the Nationals quite aware that the young lefty just might be a problem for them to deal with for the next half-decade. With control that was missing his first time out, Gohara surgically placed his 97 mph fastball wherever he wanted throughout the evening. He then followed that up with his slider, which had the Nationals swinging themselves into pretzels. He was even able to spot his much-improved changeup, using it effectively to keep the Washington hitters at bay. It was the kind of stuff that may have made Bryce Harper happy to still be on the shelf.

Anyone impressed w/Acuña's rise through the system should look @ Gohara. He did the same thing, hitting AA 7 days after & AAA 13 days after. https://t.co/WNr0uNR2cq

— Matt Chrietzberg (@MChrietzberg) September 14, 2017

He's right, ya know.

The Braves followed Gohara's outing with the 27-year-old rookie, Dan Winkler. Since he returned to the team last month, Winkler has been nearly as a lights-out as he was at the beginning of last season before he fractured his elbow. A rare bullpen piece that throws five pitches, Winkler gave his changeup the night off and worked instead off his four-seamer, cutter, and slider with a sinker tossed in there for good measure. Whatever he threw, the Nats were powerless. Howie Kendrick hit a grounder to short while Michael Taylor struck out looking. Jayson Werth saw three fastballs, including a cutter, before swinging over an 82 mph slider.

A.J. Minter got the call next and Turner singled off him. That at-bat followed back-to-back strikeouts of Matt Wieters and Raudy Reed with the latter looking just sad against Minter's slider. Randy, don't disappear. You aren't the first, nor will you be the last to look to the heavens as the slider defies physics. Minter toyed with Wilmer Difo next, throwing the infielder four sliders at 89-90 mph before throwing a 97 mph fastball that Difo could only look at.

With the lead safely in hand, the Braves called on Lucas Sims to finish it. A starter by trade, the 23-year-old Sims has been moved into a bullpen role and he drew three of the better bats in Wednesday's lineup - Rendon, Zimmerman, and Kendrick. They didn't have a chance against Sims' four-pitch mix of a 93-94 mph fastball, 87-89 mph slider, and the occasional 84 mph change and 82 mph curve. Zimmerman struck out for the second time in the game and the Braves' rookie arms struck out 12 overall.

Not to be outdone, the front two batters in the lineup, Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson, reached base a combined four times, scored twice, and were credited with three runs driven in. Lane Adams, another 27-year-old rookie who keeps hitting, filled in admirably for Ender Inciarte with three hits, including his first major league triple.

On Wednesday, we didn't see Mike Foltynewicz, Sean Newcomb, Max Fried, or Johan Camargo, but all four are 25-and-under and contributing.

This season has been trying for Braves fans - myself included. Watching Jason Motte get innings while Akeel Morris remained in Gwinnett was difficult. And watching Adonis Garcia play over Rio Ruiz was very frustrating. For a rebuilding team, the Braves of the first several months seemed awfully focused on the here-and-now while ignoring the future. That much appears to be changing. The Braves are beginning to put the kids first and it's about time.

On Thursday, the Braves started just three players over the age of 30.

It's progress. And progress, my dear friends, is a good thing.

Walk-Off Talk 1.9: The 2018 Bullpen

(Every now and then, we hold informal discussions on something related to the Braves. Today, Ryan Cothran and me, Tommy Poe, look at the bullpen in 2018.)

Ryan,

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but it looks like the Atlanta Braves won’t make the playoffs this season. And while it’s fun to talk about prospects like Kevin Maitan and Joey Wentz, there will be a major league season in 2018 and the Braves need to build a roster for it. On that roster, there will be a bullpen. So, let’s take a look at what that pen might look like.

Before we start, I have to admit something. For two consecutive years, I was sure the bullpen would be a strength and I was wrong. But I can’t be wrong three consecutive times, can I? 2018 has to be the year it all comes together, right?

To help answer that question, I want to look at where the bullpen is now and what the makeup might look like in 2018. We’ll cover some of the guys we want the Braves to keep, some of them that need to be moved, some of the guys coming up from the farm system, and any specific guys we would like the Braves to target in the free agent market or via trade. I’ll start.

 Vizcaino | By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I think the pen is a dicey position myself. It has a bullpen FIP that has often hovered around 5.00 since the All-Star Break (down to 4.61 now) and while we can blame Jim Johnson for much of that, others also struggled. Even some of the guys that have been so successful are players I'm not so sure I want to rely on moving forward. Jose Ramirez has a 2-run difference between his ERA and FIP and his xFIP is even higher. Can we really count on hitters becoming outs 8-of-10 times they put the ball in play moving forward as has happened for Ramirez this year (.209 BABIP)? Can we really count on Sam Freeman doing the thing he never did before - get left-hand major league hitters out - in 2018? Can we really count on Dan Winkler's arm not falling off from just signing an autograph?

It’s clear that I have my worries about this bullpen in 2018. That said, there are a few names that demand excitement. A.J. Minter has arrived and as long as he's healthy, he's probably the most dominant reliever the Braves have. Akeel Morris's incredible changeup will be in the mix as well - if the Braves remember he's in the organization. Arodys Vizcaino continues to impress, though he’s given up a few too many homers. Still, I’ll take him compared to others. Later, I'll talk about the two or three guys I really like coming up from the minors as well.

Generally, I'm seeing a bullpen that could go either way. Guys like Matt Wisler and Luke Jackson could finally get it. Winkler could stay healthy. Ramirez could continue to battle - and defeat - the SABR Gods. At the same time, there is a probably a better chance none of those things happen. So...that's a downer.

Here’s how I currently fall on things:
Keeping: Vizcaino, Minter, Morris, Winkler (I do like the arm)
Trading: Ramirez and Freeman - if there’s anything decent out there.
Keeping, but on thin ice: Wisler, Jackson, Hursh - next spring is their last chance.
Gone: Johnson (trade, DFA, pretend he’s Akeel Morris and lose him, whatever it takes), Krol, Motte, Brothers

I got the four I am comfortable moving into 2018 with, the three who I will give the last chance to (plus, they have no trade value), and a couple I’ll trade if there’s a good deal out there. I’m dropping veterans like it’s hot. Regardless, this pen needs plenty of work. What do you guys think? Am I wrong to be this pessimistic? Or am I seeing it way too clearly?

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Hey, Tommy!

Super-excited to be doing another Walk-Off Talk, especially one concerning the bullpen as I have a whole heck of a lot to say on the matter. First and foremost, I’ll say that I think we as Braves fans finally see the bullpen turn the corner in 2018.  There’s fruit that is blossoming in front of our eyes, young men becoming staples in the ‘pen, old dudes getting squeezed out, and fringe guys looking bloody awful and naturally being pushed out of roles.  While that all doesn’t sound good, there’s much research and evidence that shows you have to fail before succeeding.  We’re there.

In the 1st section, I’m going to look at the guys that we’ve seen in 2017 1 by 1, try to find underlying reasons for their success or failures, and decipher whether I think they have a shot at the 2018 bullpen.  Ready? Here we go! Who’s a KEEPER? Who’s a HEAPER?

1. Jose Ramirez- KEEPER. 2.28 ERA through 59.1 innings. Like Jason Motte’s early “success” this year in which he was getting roped but the ball was hit right at fielders, ERA can be a fluke stat, especially when we’re talking relievers and 1-2 inning stints at a time. With Motte, every person watching could see it was only a matter of time before it blew up in his face. The day it blew up on him was our beloved country’s birthday and since then he’s had a 9.28 ERA. This brings us to Jose Ramirez.  Like Tommy mentioned above, there’s a lot that’s went right for Jose this year: low BABIP, high LOB%, but there’s also a decrease in hard-contact as soft and medium contact make up for about 70% of the total while hard comes in at 32.3% - a serious decrease from previous years. It’s also worth noting that his groundball rate has increased significantly which, when adding in that his soft/medium contact rate has increased, bodes well for long-term success. Lastly,  Jose’s had an increase in velocity as his average fastball is 97.3, when it was previously 95ish. It’s appropriate to taper expectations for Jose as asking him to duplicate his 2.28 ERA is wish-casting, but increased velo, softer contact, and the ability to keep more balls on the ground makes me think Jose can be a mid-3s ERA in 2018.
2. Jim Johnson- KEEPER. This is tough. I don’t want to see Jim Johnson in a Braves uniform in 2018, but the reality is that it’s not that easy. He’s owed 5MM and the Braves at least need to give him a shot to rebound before throwing in the towel. Give him April in low-leverage situations and let’s see if he can make that sinker sink again - otherwise, his career will be the thing sinking.
3. Arodys Vizcaino- KEEPER. While not as extreme, Vizzy has also benefited from a low BABIP and a high-strand rate, but unlike Jose he’s kept his BB-rate low and his K-rate above 9. He might not be able to sustain a sub-3 ERA yearly, but if I were betting on anyone to do so in 2018, he’d be there.
4. Sam Freeman- KEEPER. The surprise of the bullpen in 2017, there’s not much fluke in Sam’s stat line as everything seems pretty normal. His fastball/slider combo has been downright filthy and he’s under control for 3 more years. No reason not to bring him back.
5. Ian Krol- HEAPER. I’d like to believe that Ian Krol’s mishaps are all bad luck, but it’s just not true. The pitch that made him valuable last year (fastball) has stayed up in the zone this year and has gotten crushed. His K-rate has dropped, BB-rate increased, and there are at least 2 LHPs in front of him in the pecking order. He’d also be entering his 2nd year in arbitration and the juice just isn’t worth the squeeze.
6. Luke Jackson- HEAPER. Really, there’s not much to like here. He’s got a pedestrian fastball that has velocity and that’s it.  Luke’s got a lot to figure out in AAA before he even becomes an average MLB reliever.
7. Rex Brothers- HEAPER. Was super excited to see Rex signed this offseason as I’d pined for it. However, it’s just not worked out. His advanced metrics show he’s been really unlucky and hopefully, he can turn it around this last month. For now, like Krol, there’s just more effective LH options available. Like Krol, hopefully, the Braves can trade Rex for something of semi-value.
8. Matt Wisler- HEAPER. For the 3rd year in a row, Wisler just isn’t missing bats. And really, it goes beyond that as he hasn’t missed bats since 2013, which was the last time his ERA was below 4. I don’t know what there is to figure out at AAA and maybe a change of scenery is needed.
9. Jason Hursh- HEAPER.There was this one outing where Hursh was running it up to 96 and pitches were darting every which way. Aside from that, it was a step back year for the former 1st rounder. Like Wisler, his best opportunity might come in another organization.
10. Akeel Morris- KEEPER. Must be the black sheep of the Braves 40-man roster as that is the only reason I see for him to not be in the bigs right now. Good K-rate, walks are coming down, and his 2-pitch mix looks pretty doggone good.
11. Daniel Winkler- KEEPER. In my opinion, this dude’s stuff is downright filthy.  I’ve wondered aloud whether Braves will keep him around due to injury, but if they do, I think he can be a serious 1-inning force.
12. A.J. Minter- KEEPER. We are getting a taste of what he can do now and it’s delicious. A serious powerhouse lefty that’s capable of throwing high-leverage innings to any hitter.

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Ryan,

We mentioned a few names that came up from the minors this season and, as you said, will probably be keepers in 2018. Of course, I’m speaking of Minter and Morris - if he ever apologizes for whatever great offense he did to the Braves front office. Seriously, do as I do with my wife, Akeel. Make your apology sound super sincere even when you have no idea why they are mad. And maybe break down and watch Empire with The Holy John Trinity. Perhaps that last thing only helps with my wife, but it’s worth a shot.

Who might join Minter and Morris next season as young arms arriving in the bigs? Let me preface this by saying that I would love to include Kyle Kinman in this group, but coming off Tommy John surgery, I think that’s wishful thinking. Also, nobody knows where they put Armando Rivero so until we find him (I’ll check the couch), there’s no real reason to include him in this discussion.

Clouse | By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

One name that pops out immediately is Corbin Clouse. He logged 41 games between Florida and Mississippi this year, finished with the fourth most strikeouts in the system from those pitchers who didn't start a game, and hitters struggle to get the ball elevated against him due to a heavy 91-93 mph sinker and a wipeout slider. I'm sure this is going to be a common theme with these young arms, but in reference to Clouse, his control can waver from time-to-time. That said, when he's on with his delivery and follow-through, he's a nasty guy to deal with on the mound. Low-end projection, he'll be a left-hand specialist. But I think his stuff plays up to the righties as well. I think he could be a left-handed and maybe a little less effective version of the Tigers' Shane Greene.

Another arm that started in Florida only to finish the season in Mississippi was Devan Watts. Similar story to Clouse, except he's right-handed and has flashed very good control. Same sinker/slider combo, but with a bit more velocity and holy crap, does his sinker move. I've also seen a changeup out of him, though I'm not sure if it'll play in the majors. The Braves are downright scary with how they uncover these small college arms (Tusculum College alum) and develop them into relief prospects. He checks all the boxes you are looking for and should be in the mix come spring training.

Phil Pfeifer, unlike Clouse and Watts, has logged some time in Triple-A. He has a more prototypical heater, though this velocity won't blow you away. He'll mix in a changeup and a late breaking power curve. Sometimes, especially against right-handers, he'll slow the curve down to give the hitter something else to look at as it drops in a more traditional loopy fashion. Picked up from the Dodgers last year, it all boils down to control for the southpaw. He's quick through his delivery and gets a lot of movement on his pitches, though I sometimes feel like he's trying to get through his delivery way too fast and would be better off slowing things down a touch. Either way, there's a lot to like, but you can't walk 16% of hitters in the majors and be an effective reliever.

Finally, I have to mention the guy who came over with Luiz Gohara - Thomas Burrows. The Braves were super cautious with the former Alabama closer (Tide Roll! - right?), but I imagine the dude will be on the quick track next year after spending his Age-22 season in Rome. He struck out nearly a third of the batters he faced, got a heavy dose of grounders, and kept the walks to the minimal. Do I think he'll jump from low-A to the majors this spring? No, but could he be in the mix by midseason? Oh, absolutely. He's tried-and-tested in the SEC and has continued his success into pro baseball. And have I mentioned that he's another sinker/slider pitcher. Seriously, with all these sinker/slider guys, we should have never let Roger McDowell go. He'd be giddy with this crop of relievers. Oh, well.

I know there are more arms I haven't mentioned here. Why don't you point them out, Ryan?

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I will do just that, Tommy! But might I say that of the guys you mentioned above, Devan Watts really tickles my fancy.  Some twitter guys had his velo up to 98 at the end of this year. Add to that a low-BB rate, high-K rate, and a 2nd pitch in a slider that varies in MPH and is more of a plus pitch than his fastball, and you’ve essentially got what the Braves wanted out of Shae Simmons without the arm injury history. I’m all-in on THAT!

But enough about you and your guys! What do you think this is, the Tommy show?  I want to talk about my dudes!  Ready?

Jacob Lindgren (LHP)- In this section, Lindgren, in my opinion, is by far the guy to be most excited about.  But keep your pants on, Braves fans.  He went under the knife last year with Tommy John surgery and has yet to pitch.  Stolen from the Yankees, Benjamin Chase compares Lindgren’s fastball and slider to Jonny Venters, and from all the video I’ve watched, it’s on the money. Unfortunately, the pitch that likely aided in the injury is Lindgren’s calling card: a slider that simply disappears on hitters. Keep an eye on Lindgren this winter as the Braves could send him somewhere to get some innings in January, but more likely would be a return to action in Spring Training for an Opening Day audition.

Wes Parsons (RHP)- Wes has been in the organization since 2013 and at one point was a top-10 prospect in a very weak system. Now that the Braves have the best farm in the Majors, Parsons has been a bit of an afterthought as he’s been moved full-time to the bullpen. However, it seems to have done him a whole lot of good, revitalizing what seemed to be a dead career as a starting pitcher. Parsons has added a couple MPHs (tops out at 96) to his fastball and rebounded to a 3.15 ERA across 2 levels with healthy. For me though, I’d file him under the same headline as failed starting pitchers turned fringe MLB relievers with Matt Wisler and Jason Hursh. Parsons has a chance to be a good relief pitcher, even if it’s just a sliver of hope.

 Biddle | By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Jesse Biddle (LHP)- Before Lindgren, there was Biddle. Claimed from the Pirates prior to the 2016 season, Biddle was another guy that the Braves got for nothing due to recovering from Tommy John surgery when the Pirates tried to sneak him through waivers. In his first year of on-field action with the Braves, Biddle worked exclusively out of the bullpen and put up good numbers through 49.2 innings at AA. The BB-rate was below 3 per 9, the K-rate was above a K per inning, and the ERA sub-3. What’s bizarre is the fact that he’s on the 40-man and yet the front office didn’t bring him up for a cup of coffee. There are some undertones in this statement and maybe none of these are correct but I think Braves either don’t see him as a real piece, want to limit his innings, or dislike something in his demeanor. He seems like he could be a useful Major Leaguer and hopefully, he gets his shot next spring.

Caleb Dirks (RHP)-  Dirks was in the Braves system, traded to the Dodgers, and reacquired last year. Dirks is known for his deception as both video and scouting reports show jerky movements before delivering the ball, which has Benjamin Chase comping him to Jordan Walden. The problem is that is where the comp ends. He doesn’t have electric stuff, nor does he have electric velocity. In my opinion, there’d have to be a whole lot go right for him and wrong for others for Dirks to get a shot in the Braves bullpen. Like many fringe guys, his best path to the bigs will likely be outside this pitching-heavy system.

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Love “The Strikeout Machine.” Lindgren and Minter together are going to be hell on the opposition - especially the poor left-handed hitters they leave in their destruction.

Moving on, let’s talk about a couple of guys that might benefit from a switch. Specifically, Mike Foltynewicz and Lucas Sims. I’m glad I can address this subject again because Stephen stole my thunder awhile back with his column on Folty from the beginning of August and I want it back. He pointed out something that many Braves fans rather disagreed with, but that I have had a sinking feeling would be the inevitable conclusion on Folty. Simply put, he's miscast as a starter. That isn't to denigrate Foltynewicz, but over more than 350 innings, we have witnessed a few things about Folty that seem impossible to disagree with. One, he's got lethal stuff. Second, he's in stagnation since joining the Braves. He's improved, sure, but only incrementally. To put it another way, he's gone from a bad rookie pitcher to a mediocre third-year starter. And sure, we can sit here and condition this by saying Folty is really in his first full season as a major league pitcher after spending ten starts in the minors in 2015 and working his way back from injury last year, but that excuse only gets us so far.

It's not that Folty isn't useful in his current role - only that he's not best suited to be a starter. I was doing a Saturday Stats Pack less than a week before Stephen's article where I pointed out that since 2015, only two pitchers (the washed up version of Adam Wainwright and the journeyman Jeremy Hellickson) had higher line-drive rates against them. Line drives turn into hits nearly 70% of the time and many of them also become extra bases. Some, you can argue some of this is due to the fact that Foltynewicz has thrown his fastball nearly 65% of the time and it's a hard fastball. Fair enough, but even the most optimistic fan has to be worried about that line drive rate.

Foltynewicz simply doesn't have the offspeed pitch to keep hitters honest. Once they time his fastball, they don't have to worry about being fooled by a changeup. They can then sit dead red and react to the slider and curve, which both are better since his rookie year, but both suffer from repeated viewings of the pitch. Further, as Stephen said a month ago, Folty has never been able to get out lefties. Perhaps if they didn't see him multiple times in the same game - and he was given a chance to unleash his heater at full strength with either of his breaking balls - Foltynewicz could have more luck.

I know it's unpopular, but in my book, it's time to embrace the inevitable here and turn Folty into the Braves' version of Chris Devenski. Like Folty, Devenski has amazing stuff and he's given the opportunity to unleash it without the fear that he needs to hold back for the fourth, fifth, and sixth innings. Moving Folty to the bullpen could hurt a rotation that appears wide open already, but a sign of good management is put your player in the best position to succeed. With Folty, I believe that he'll succeed the most coming out of the bullpen.

On the flip side, Lucas Sims has always had an arm scouts raved about, but the results haven’t been equally as impressive. He seemed to take a step forward this season with the lowest walk rate of his career in his second try at answering the Triple-A question, but also threw a lot of grooved fastballs that were hammered to deep Estonia. The strikeouts were there, but like we've seen with Sims, it was two steps forward, another step back. His first taste of the majors as a starter has been Matt Wisler-like. He's still avoiding the walks, which plagued him the last two years, but he's looked exceedingly meh. If that's possible.

One of the thing that stands out to me the most about Sims so far has been the inability to induce a swing-and-a-miss. The major league average is 10.3%. Sims, as a starter, had a 7.8% swinging-strike percentage. Hitters are making too much contact and those balls are screaming around the park.

The Braves have already announced that Sims will work out of the bullpen for the rest of the season and that might be for the best moving forward. We haven't seen a lot of Sims just as as a reliever, but the early returns are promising. Sims doesn't have the same kind of electric stuff as Foltynewicz does, but he does have lively movement on his pitches when he can repeat his delivery and arm slot - something that is easier said than done with him. Don't believe me? Check this out:

If he cleans that up, his fastball location should be better. Because his curveball is so good, he only needs to be able to locate his fastball and good things will come. In my opinion, that will come in shorter stints - the kind of appearances he had in the Arizona Fall League last year when he reestablished his value.

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Kudos on that, Tommy! I think we all at Walkoff Walk can agree that Folty would be better served to unleash all that holds him back 1 inning at a time. Could you imagine a bullpen that featured Folty coming in throwing triple digit heat? I need to see more at the MLB level on Sims, but I have a hard time distinguishing between what he brings and what Matt Wisler brings. At one point, I thought Wisler could be a stud bullpen piece with a couple of ticks in added velo. Now, not so sure. Hopefully, you’re right and Sims will take to a role in the bullpen.

But now that we are done with the in-house guys, it looks like we have enough candidates to make a pretty good bullpen. However, we all know that if a team starts the year with 15 candidates, they’ll be looking for more come April. So, is there anyone out there on the free agent market that could prove valuable in a 2018 Braves bullpen?  You bet there are and I want to take a look at some of those options.

With Minter, Clouse, S. Freeman, Lindgren, and Biddle, I think the Braves have the LH relievers in-house that they need, but there’s a few free agent RH that I’d like to see the Braves go after for 2018, but before that, let’s make a mental note: I think there’s a really big chance Craig Kimbrel comes home for the 2018 season, therefore the guys I’m looking at aren’t the top-tier, but right below that. Also, it’s worth noting that the guys I’m looking at carry a low-BB rate which is very much needed in a bullpen chock full of young, wild electric arms.

Anthony Swarzak- Fastball has picked up velo and has been downright dominant this year.  Having the best year of his career and a good time to do it.
Addison Reed- In a walk year, Addison Reed is pitching well for the 3rd consecutive year and inducing ground balls at a 40% rate.

The bad contract swap route?

A while back, I posted a waiver trade idea between the Braves and Orioles in which the Orioles brought home Nick Markakis and Jim Johnson. With Johnson tanking, I think that deal as it was is dead and gone.  But Markakis? That could still be something the Orioles are interested in this coming offseason. But maybe the Braves can knock off most of Jim’s contract and send him to them? Here’s the proposal:

Braves get Darren O’Day
Orioles get Nick Markakis, Jim Johnson, and 3MM dollars

O’Day has rebounded from his atrocious start in which his ERA approached 7 close to the midway point. Now, it’s a respectable 3.86. Still, he’s owed 18MM through 2019 and the Orioles could look at this as a peace offering to their fan base to start their rebuild. They’ll clear all of O’Day’s 2019 salary and pay JJ and Kakes 13MM for 2018.

Transaction Tuesday - Wisler, Demeritte, Mader, Custred

Lots of moves involving the top teams in the organization this week with just a few notable moves coming from the low minors. Most of them involve Rome, who continue to utilize some creative roster management to deal with tired arms. Trying something new this week with a super-sized spotlight bit on one of the players profiled.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover August 15 to August 21. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta

U.S. Army photo by Sgt. Anthony Hewitt/Released via Wikipedia Commons

SPOTLIGHT - Recalled: Matt Wisler...Switching Matt Wisler to the bullpen full-time has long been advocated by some of the more sabermetrically-inclined Braves fans. A big reason for this was despite all his flaws, one thing Wisler has done well since coming to the majors is throw a plus-plus slider. He doesn't get ridiculous spin rate on the pitch, ranking just 85th over the last three years among pitchers who have thrown at least 500 sliders, but he controls it well. He doesn't have enough innings to qualify, but since 2015, Wisler's wSL/C of 0.71 would rank just outside the Top 30 in baseball.

The problem has been his other pitches - specifically his changeup and curveball. Neither translated well to the majors and subsequently, both have led to a lot of extra base knocks over the last three years. In fact, of the 24 times a hitter has put one of his changeups in play, nearly half have become hits. As a result, Wisler's numbers have steadily worsened as hitters adjusted to lay off his slider. This was particularly problematic as the game went on. While the pendulum almost always favors the hitter the more times he sees the same pitcher in a ball game, Wisler's numbers flatlined the longer he stayed in. The first time through the order, hitters had a 89 tOPS+, which is adjusted for a player's own split. By the second time, it jumped to 102 and then 111. Of particular concern was the ISO that increased from .171 to .191 to .220 by the third time through the order.

About a month ago, the Braves decided it was time to change course with their righty. While his splits don't look good regardless of the time through the order, the Braves saw a pitcher who was trying to establish his other pitches early in the game to be able to go to them later. It didn't help, though. His curve and changeup had little effect. When a pitcher can't spot or induce weak contact on more than one secondary pitch, the simple solution is to move him to the bullpen, which is what the Braves did. While Wisler had been used as a reliever in other outings this year to little success, the difference now was the Braves weren't just using him out of the pen as a fresh arm before he headed back to Gwinnett to be a starter. Now, he would be a reliever full-time.

With two outings in the book, we are seeing a few changes. Number one, he hasn't thrown a changeup. Considering his lack of any success with the pitch, that's a good thing. He's also using his four-seamer and curve as show-me pitches. These changes lead to a reliance on his sinker and slider, which is exactly the type of profile that could lead to Wisler sticking around for the long term. He dominated the Reds, needing just 36 pitches to retire 9-of-11 batters he faced during the weekend. Even more impressive than that game was the latter half of two outings in two days. There's something here and hopefully, the Braves let Wisler sink-or-swim over the rest of the season and there's reason to believe he'll swim.

Recalled and Demoted to Gwinnett: Micah Johnson...I liked the idea of Johnson off the bench, but he's only been used as a pinch hitter over four games spanning two callups. The Braves just don't seem anxious to give him much of a look right now.

Activated: Matt Kemp...The Braves brought back their DH to play LF, which significantly limits the time for their 1B/DH in Matt Adams. Oh, well. Kemp got off to a big start and much was made about his conditioning efforts, but nagging injuries sapped him of much of his offensive game before a trip to the DL. His defense, which is atrocious, continues to a problem for the team and wary of losing his bat late in games, the Braves seem uncomfortable with lifting him for a better glove. Kemp is owed a lot of money over the next two seasons and at this point, it seems like the Braves are saddled with him short of a big run. Well, at least he's not Hector Olivera, right?

Activated: Dan Winkler...Winkler made his return to the majors and retired the only batter he faced Monday while stranding a runner. It won't stand out on a box score, but the road back to the majors has been tough for Winkler. He was in the midst of a second rehab stint after the first one was exhausted with Winkler still needing more time coming back from a fractured elbow. He was shut down for several weeks before returning on August 6. Over his next five appearances, Winkler allowed five singles over five innings with five strikeouts. At least he was consistent. It was also significantly improved over the seven runs over five innings before being shut down. Winkler has a violent delivery, but legit stuff and very good control. If he's able to harness it over the next six or seven weeks, the Braves might have an interesting choice to make as I discussed last week in regards to bringing him back next season.

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Optioned: Rex Brothers...The Braves basically got the Rex Brothers Experience - though he was very unlucky (52% left-on-base percentage?). He struck out a bunch of batters, walked too many, and gave up too many homers. Basically, the same stuff he's done since his solid 2013 season. Now, a lot of that was sample-size driven and his 3.91 FIP/3.97 xFIP suggests his 7.63 ERA would have normalized over time, but I'm happy with this demotion as I feel the Braves are wasting too many spots on veterans with little hope of being brought back in 2018. Brothers will be arbitration-eligible this offseason, but it seems unlikely he'll be in the mix for a return. In the mean time, the Braves get some time to make a decision on Winkler. Win, win.

DL'd: Luke Jackson (right shoulder strain)...The Braves have done something the Rangers could not - get Jackson to throw strikes. However, it also seems it hurt his strikeout rate in the process with as it has plummeted to 16%. Overall, Jackson has looked much like a replacement-level arm than a hot prospect. In that, Jackson's case is similar to Chris Withrow. When the latter was acquired, he was hurt, but the scouting reports were that he had a tremendous, sometimes wild, arm and could be a high leverage reliever down the road. The Braves ultimately chose to non-tender Withrow this offseason after a forgetful season of a low strikeout rate and a 4.90 FIP. Jackson has been better - largely due to better control - but the results are still poor. Unlike Withrow, though, Jackson won't be arbitration-eligible and the nearly 26-year-old should return for 2018 if the Braves don't need his roster spot more.

DL'd: Danny Santana (left quad strain)...Santana has had a few good runs here-and-there, but overall, he's been just as bad as he was in 2015 and 2016. So, how did his 2014 slash of .319/.353/.472 happen? Part of it was that the league hadn't adjusted to him, but a much bigger part was a .405 BABIP. Santana has been worth -2.3 fWAR since his rookie season and should not be a guy taking up a roster spot when other younger and potentially more valuable guys are in the minors looking for their shot. What is disheartening about Santana's presence on the team is that Brian Snitker, the Braves manager, seems to have an affinity for the man. During a recent four-game series in Colorado, Santana started all four games. Some of that was due to the fact that Matt Adams was deemed unable to play left field in the expansive Coors Field outfield. But for three of those games, a much better option in Lane Adams was left on the bench. Much like when Emilio Bonifacio was on the roster, Snitker seems to have an undeserved love for Santana that leads to far too much playing time. As a result, it falls on John Coppolella to not enable such poor judgment by having Santana on the team.

Gwinnett
Promoted from Mississippi: Luis Valenzuela...Acquired back in 2015 in the Jonny Gomes trade, Valenzuela only recently returned from the DL after a month on the shelf and wasn't lighting it up at Mississippi so this promotion wasn't that expected. When he was acquired, Valenzuela was hitting the cover off the ball, but over the last two seasons - much of which has been lost to injury - Valenzuela has not done all that much with the bat. A left-hand hitting infielder, Valenzuela is a good glove man, though his limited range keeps him from playing a competent shortstop. At the plate, Valenzuela has yet to see a pitch he didn't like, though with one more walk this season, he will match his career-best total set back in 2013. He walked 14 times that season. Valenzuela has a little pop, but overall, the numbers just aren't there.

Promoted from Florida: Sal Giardina...Old Sal's demotion to Florida was mentioned last week. What remains interesting about the demotion was Giardina never caught with Florida, something that may have more to do with their current catchers than Giardina himself. Not sure where he fits in with Gwinnett, who have Kade Scivicque and David Freitas behind the plate and an already crowded infield situation. Perhaps it's just where there was an open spot?

Activated: Josh Collmenter...He made his much-anticipated Gwinnett debut last week with a pair of solid starts. Like you could ever forget, but Collmenter joined the Braves last September and made three starts in the majors. He was good enough to earn a return via arbitration and as the rotation took shape, Collmenter was ticketed for the long relief role. He held the role until being designated for assignment in late May. He'll be a minor league free agent at the end of the year provided the Braves don't bring him back up for depth purposes next month.

DL'd: Emerson Landoni...DL, Activated, DL, activated, DL, activated, DL, activated, demotion, promotion, DL. That's been this season for Landoni, who has played just 33 games and hit a combined .181/.243/.181 with Gwinnett and Mississippi. He's been floating around professional baseball since 2006 and first joined the Braves back in 2012. Since then, his best single-season OPS is .728. I'm sure he keeps the clubhouse loose, though.

DL'd: David Peterson...A righty out of the College of Charleston, David Peterson has been an organizational favorite who has continued to stick around despite some mediocre numbers along the way. A 2012 pick, Peterson, leads Gwinnett with seven saves and this is the third season he's played with the Braves' top minor league team.

DL'd: Dustin Peterson (#20)...2017 will likely go down as a lost campaign for Peterson, which is very sad considering what he did last year. Peterson is still very young and won't turn 23 for another few weeks so he'll be back for next season. The hamate bone fracture from spring training has been slow to heal completely and last week, he was hit-by-a-pitch again. I'm not sure how bad it was, but he was immediately removed and placed on the DL soon after. Peterson has hit .255/.327/.328 this season, though he's hit left-handers with much better results (in significantly fewer PA, of course).

Mississippi

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Activated: Travis Demeritte (#12)...On the fortunate side, Demeritte only missed ten days on the DL. His return has seen the second baseman, who has struggled nearly all season, go 6-for-21 with a double, four walks, and five Ks. That actually continues a solid start to August that preceded his DL assignment as Demeritte is hitting .279/.380/.488 over 50 PA this month. That's a huge improvement over his June and July numbers in which he hit .165/.243/.312 with 60 Ks in 190 PA. The Braves would love nothing more than to see Demeritte finish strong, which makes their decision on whether or not they should protect him in the Rule 5 draft much easier. Nobody doubts the impressive combination of power and defense, but will he hit enough? I still believe he will, but it's been a very tough season, to say the least.

Activated: Michael Mader...The belief heading into this season was that the Braves had stolen Mader off the Marlins. Unfortunately, his results haven't supported that belief and his return after nearly a month on the DL didn't show any signs of that changing. He faced six batters and retired just one. The other five scored. He walked a pair, continuing a season-long issue with free passes in which his walk rate is double what it was last season. This looks like a potentially lost season for Mader, who will be eligible for the Rule 5 draft and could interest some teams out there as a lefty with projection.

Florida
Demoted from Mississippi: Andres Santiago...Santiago's first move this year was an assignment to Florida. His demotion last week was the 15th move of this season for the righty, who spent much of the spring on the Team Puerto Rico WBC team as an alternate. Santiago has been pitching professional ball since 2007 with little success mixed in. His value to the Braves is similar to Rudy's value to Notre Dame. The Braves can simply say that his "greatest value to is we don't care whether you get hurt."

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Matt Custred...Most of the following demotions/promotions are related to roster manipulation as Rome has thrown a lot of innings over the last couple of weeks. I mentioned last week when he was "demoted" that Custred has actually earned a promotion up the ladder. He continued to show why with three more scoreless innings this week and four strikeouts. That gives him a 1.04 ERA/2.47 FIP on the year with a 33% strikeout rate. Considering he's repeating Rome, it's really puzzling why he hasn't received a promotion to Florida when 27-year-old journeymen like Santiago are struggling in the FSL. With the season winding down, we might not see Custred in high-A until next year, though it also wouldn't surprise me much to see him jump to Double-A with a good spring.

Demoted to Danville and promoted back: Walter Borkovich...This wasn't the usual "demotion to give him a few days" as Rome manipulates the roster as The Bork made a triumphant return with Danville. Before that, he threw three innings on August 15th in one of Rome's marathon games last week (which also included a double header). While down with Danville, Borkovich made his first appearance for the D-Braves in nearly three weeks and worked around an error to strike out the side for his second APPY save. He returned two days later to Rome and surrendered a walk-off single with the run charged to Ryan Schlosser. Borkovich is a personal favorite in that the righty went undrafted out of Michigan State and all he's done since is post a 1.29 ERA over 21 innings with three walks and 23 strikeouts. To be fair, Borkovich is not a scout's dream. He doesn't really have a plus pitch, which is why he wasn't one of the 1200 or so players selected in June. But to this point, he hasn't let that hold him back. Perhaps a scout saw something no one else did. Whatever the case, Borkovich is clearing his first hurdle - showing he belongs.

Demoted to Danville and promoted back: Jon Kennedy...First, I believe that this Braves nation should commit itself to achieving the goal, before this decade is out, of landing an Australian man with a famous name in the majors. Jon Kennedy is one of my little prospect crushes. He has some talent, but maybe not enough to be a high leverage arm in the majors. That said, the youth lefty who impressed a member of Melbourne in the Australian Baseball League has been very successful over the last two seasons. 2016 was a season for him to get his feet wet. He pitched mostly with Rome with a four-game stop in Danville and even a one-game cameo in Carolina. This season, he has logged nearly 70 innings - almost exclusively out of the pen - for Rome. He won't blow you away with his strikeout numbers, but he has a Greg Maddux-like _FIVE_ walks on the year. Strangely, he has as many wild pitches as he does walks. He keeps the ball on the ground (57%) and has matched a 2.84 ERA with a 2.80 FIP/2.98 xFIP. Rome is flush with some very successful arms this year coming out of the bullpen and Kennedy might not be the most deserving of a promotion (that honor falls on Custred or Thomas Burrows), but as long as Kennedy is rolling, he's a guy that could get to the majors before the end of this decade at least in a specialist role - though that doesn't line up with his splits stats.

Danville
Promoted to Rome and demoted back: Landon Hughes...Called up for a fresh arm, Hughes made his Low-A debut last week and surrendered two runs, one earned over 1.1 innings. He was uncharacteristically wild, throwing just 22 strikes out of 39 pitches and walking three. Considering he walked just three over his previous nine appearances, ranging 12.2 ING, we'll chalk it up to first-time jitters and/or everything being new. He gave up two more runs three days later in his return to Danville as the Princeton Rays took advantage of Alan Crowley to swipe two bases in the ninth and score the tying and eventual winning runs. From my own personal experiences, I've seen both the Good Hughes and Not-So-Good Hughes. The latter nibbles and pitches himself into trouble. The former is confident and combines a good breaking ball with a lively fastball. In one game I watched, he was easily the most impressive Danville pitcher that I saw. The righty is tall and has some solid overall marks with Danville this season - 1.50 ERA over 18 innings, 5 walks, 22 Ks. A 7th rounder in June, Hughes could be a nice little relief prospect moving forward.

Demoted from Rome: Bladimir Matos...Another move made largely due to last week's crazy collection of games, including a 16-inning affair. Matos tossed four big innings that night, getting the game to the 15th inning with no runs allowed. He walked four so he wasn't super effective, but no runs scored and it allowed infielder Kurt Hoekstra the opportunity to throw two innings for the win after Rome scored six in the top of the 16th. Matos has appeared in 36 games with Rome this year and wildness have continued to plague him with a 12% walk rate. Even though he struck out just one in his four innings during his last game with Rome before this "demotion," Matos is riding the best K-rate of his career by striking out 27% of all batters. Matos is not a big prospect, but the righty is doing what he needs to do to stay in the Braves' good graces.

GCL:
Demoted from Danville: Connor Johnstone...A 21st-rounder out of Wake Forest, Johnstone made three starts in Danville to open the season. There was no move announced, but after being removed on July 6 after just two frames, Johnstone was not heard of for the next month-and-a-half until he showed back up on the transaction page last week. It suggests an injury, but hard to tell as Johnstone doesn't have much of a social media presence that I know of. Johnstone was one of the ACC's best pitchers this year and even threw a Maddux (96-pitch) against Miami. He didn't have big strikeout numbers in college, but a cutter he added to his game this year was a big reason he went from un-draftable to the 21st round. Surprisingly, he got off to a good start with strikeouts as a professional, picking up 12 of them in 10 innings with Danville. He was also hurt by the gopher ball, surrendering two which helped to lead to six runs. He's yet to pitch for the GCL club.

DSL:
Assigned: Jose Olague...The Braves made up for their signing bonus restrictions this J2 period by going the quantity route. Olague is an 18-year-old with nearly no information related to him. I can tell you that Olague comes from the Basque word "ola," which means "forge." Man, scraping the bottom of the barrel here. @FONZY541 suggested that Olague may be from Mexico after one bearing the same name was on the Naranjeros de Hermosillo roster as a 15-year-old a few years ago. Either way, Olague had a successful professional debut last week, tossing a pair of scoreless innings with two Ks against one of the Red Sox farm clubs.

Baseball's Weirdest Rule 5 Situation

What better way to explain service time than with the hottest prospect to come through the Braves system since Jason Heyward? For that matter, what better way to explain arbitration than with the strangest case that we've seen over the last number of years?

In professional baseball, you earn two different kinds of "time." The one that everyone gets from a rookie-league ballplayer to R.A. Dickey relates to how long you have been a professional. This is especially important when it comes to things like the Rule 5 draft and minor league free agency. For instance, after seven seasons in the minors, you can become a minor league free agent. Oddly, we call them "six-year minor league free agents" despite needing seven years. Baseball is strange.

The other kind of time a player earns - which is far more important to this article - is service time. This refers to each day spent in the major leagues. Under the new CBA, there are 187 days to fit in a 162-game schedule. However, you are still credited with a day of service time during those off days. In fact, a full season is referred to as 172 days in the major leagues - which did not change in the CBA despite the added days to the MLB calendar year. Think of this way - as long as a player didn't use an option that season (i.e. 20 days in the minors), he likely earned a year of service time if he was with the team in April.

You receive service time while on the active roster, the disabled list, the restricted (or suspended) list, and...well...any list. As long as you haven't been optioned to the minors, your service time is climbing. Hence why some teams have tried to play the system against itself. In 2015, the Chicago Cubs waited exactly 13 days to call up Kris Bryant. Under the previous CBA, there were 184 days in a calendar season. As Bryant was not on the 40-man roster to begin the season, by pushing his debut off nearly two weeks, the 2015 Rookie of the Year received 171 days of service time in 2015. That's a day short of a full season. Chicago said all the right things about Bryant needing to work on some parts of his game, but the decision was made with the 2021 season in mind. Had the Cubs opened the season with Bryant on the major league roster, he would have become a free agent after 2020 as players with six years of service time in the majors at the end of any given season can become free agents should they not be signed beyond that season. Believing it was more beneficial to them to keep him in the minors, they did just that.

Should the Braves follow suit with Ronald Acuna? There is a lot of talk about bringing him up in September and why not? Over three stops from High-A ball to Triple-A, Acuna has hit .320/.374/.539 with 28 doubles, eight triples, 20 homers, and 37 steals. His numbers have improved at each stop and despite being about eight years younger than the International League, Acuna has an OPS of 1.021 with Gwinnett over 34 games. He's not only the top prospect in the Braves' system but has a solid claim to the best prospect in baseball and he's just 19 years-old.

Bringing him up now would sacrifice a potential extra year of team control. There are other concerns, but provided Acuna stays in the majors, he would reach free agency after 2023. If the Braves waited until sometime in late April of next season to bring Acuna up, they would follow the Bryant route and gain an extra year of team control while merely sacrificing a few weeks of the 2018 season with their top prospect in Triple-A. The Braves have historically not concerned themselves with that, though. I mentioned Heyward and he opened his rookie season in the starting lineup on opening day. By that September, Freddie Freeman joined the team for a cup of coffee. Last August, Dansby Swanson was surprisingly brought to the majors, which started his clock early. In fact, the last time I remember the Braves really concerning themselves with service time came in 2009.

Tommy Hanson was absolutely dominant with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi in 2008 as a 21-year-old. He finished the season by crushing the Arizona Fall League with a 0.63 ERA over 28.2 innings and 49 strikeouts. Over 14.2 innings the following spring, Hanson had a 2.45 ERA with 14 strikeouts. But it was Jo-Jo Reyes who was named the fifth starter. Predictably, he failed and in mid-May, the Braves made a change. Hanson had a 1.70 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 47.2 ING over his first eight starts, but the Braves passed on bringing him up from Gwinnett. They instead called on Kris Medlen, who had been nearly as excellent but wasn't considered a top prospect. Medlen would get three starts until June 7, when the Braves finally brought up Hanson.

All of this was done for one reason - arbitration. Had the Braves opened the season with Hanson as the fifth starter, not only would he have gotten to free agency a season quicker, he would have gotten paid a lot quicker as well. Players become arbitration-eligible after three seasons on a MLB roster. The Braves passed and continued to pass even after gaining the extra year of team control. That was done to get him past the expected date for Super 2 arbitration-eligible players. Super 2 refers to players with two years of service time plus a lot more. Basically, you group all of the players with more than two years of service time, but less than three years in a given season. You take the top 22% of that list and it gives you a threshold. Anyone above that threshold reaches arbitration early. That threshold differs, but it typically lands somewhere in the 2 years and 120-to-150 days area. Remember Bryant from earlier? Despite the fact that the Cubs bought an extra year before free agency, he will still reach salary arbitration this year. And the three years after it. Hence why Super 2 guys can get really expensive. Since arbitration-eligible players rarely fail to receive a nice bump in pay, it gets pretty costly the third time around even for just good players. Add a fourth year and players often are getting plenty of bank. One such player for the Braves this offseason will be Mike Foltynewicz, who will likely have 2 years and 163 days of service time. While the Super 2 cutoff hasn't been decided for 2017, it's unlikely to be higher than 163 days.

The entire reason I bring up service time and arbitration today is related to Dan Winkler. Back in December of 2014, the Braves selected Winkler in the Rule 5 draft. They knew he would miss of the next season after having Tommy John surgery. When a Rule 5 player is injured and misses time the next season, they still have to log at least 90 days on the active roster to fulfill their Rule 5 eligibility. If they fail to reach 90 days in their first season as a Rule 5 guy, they must finish off the remaining time the next season before being eligible to be optioned to the minors. In Winkler's case, as we know, it gets complicated.

Winkler was activated off the DL in 2015 on September 10. Between that day and the end of the season, he logged 24 days on the active roster. The following season, he was on the active roster for eight days before fracturing his elbow. In two seasons, he had 32 days of service time - or nearly two months short of what he would need to satisfy the Rule 5 requirement of 90 days.

The right-hander is currently on his second rehab assignment this season, which has required approval because pitchers only receive 30 days on rehab assignments. Winkler's most recent rehab assignment began 12 days ago. If he has been granted a second rehab assignment of 30 days, the Braves would be able to keep him in the minors until September 1 without having to make a move with the current roster. The season runs through October 1, which would get Winkler to 31 days of active roster time for this season and 55 overall. That leaves an additional 35 days of active roster time he would need to reach in 2018 to satisfy his Rule 5 requirements.

But...he'll also be arbitration-eligible. Yep, even though Winkler has thrown four innings in the majors, he'd be eligible for arbitration even if he went back on the DL for the rest of the year. Earlier, I said players get credit for service time while on the DL. Even though Winkler has pitched 13 times this season in the minors, it's all came under rehab assignments, which means he's still on the major league DL. That would mean Winkler would reach 172 days of service time this season on or about September 15, which would give him three years of service time in the major leagues.

But why stop this extra-strength convoluted exercise now? Let's go over the Braves' options.

I don't remember a case even close to this so this is my best-educated guess.

The Braves could non-tender Winkler, but as far as I know it, non-tender players become official in early December. That might be longer than the Braves would like to go with Winkler taking up space on their roster if they already plan on getting rid of him.

Atlanta could outright Winkler to the minors, but there are a few hang-ups there as well. One, to get him off the 40-man roster, they would need to waive him, offer him to the rest of the league, and, provided he passed through waivers, offer him back to the Rockies. If the other 29 teams passed, the Braves could attempt to outright him to the minors, but as an arbitration-eligible player, Winkler would have the right to elect free agency. As a free agent, the Braves could still try to sign him as a minor league free agent if they so wanted. For that matter, they could simplify the process and release Winkler and then sign him. If he accepted an assignment to the minors after being outrighted or signed as a minor league free agent and either came before the Rule 5 draft, he'd actually be eligible in the 2018 Rule 5 draft.

The Braves could also elect to offer arbitration. After all, how much could Winkler ask for and what could his agent argue? That he's been a good patient? For his part, Winkler has looked much sharper since beginning another rehab stint with Gwinnett and was very impressive to open last season. As he is unlikely to receive significantly more than the major league minimum through arbitration, he still could be a good bet to receive an arbitration tender.

Fortunately, few cases are crazier than Winkler and most are much simpler. Joining Winkler and Foltynewicz among this year's arbitration-eligible players for the first time will be Sam Freeman, Danny Santana, and Jace Peterson. Another player, Jose Ramirez, seems like a good bet to also reach Super 2 status. Ian Krol, Rex Brothers, Arodys Vizcaino, and Matt Adams will also be arbitration-eligible. Much of this group seems likely to receive a non-tender - including Winkler. Should that happen, the next team won't even have to worry about Rule 5 eligibility with Winkler. That should keep the complications down to a minimal.