The Logic Behind Trading Ender Inciarte

As Ronald Acuna spent the last 18 months destroying minor league baseball, there’s obviously been plenty of discussion of how and when he’s going to make his debut in Atlanta. 

The "when" has basically been answered as he almost certainly will be up at some point in 2018, with opening day being a real possibility. The "how" is a little more complicated, however, as the Braves have three full-time outfielders under contract for 2018, with the two most likely candidates to be replaced also being the two most expensive and difficult to move. It’s been my assumption all along, and still is, that Atlanta would find a trade partner for NickMarkakis, pay down however much of the contract is necessary, and open up RF for their number one prospect.

But there is another option that at least needs to be considered. 

The other day in his weekly chat, ESPN prospect analyst Keith Law gave this answer in response to a question on the subject:

It should be noted that while Law is very connected within the game of baseball and specifically with the Atlanta Braves, this response seems to be his opinion of what should happen and not necessarily something he’s heard will happen from a source.

But that’s quite an opinion. Trade Ender Inciarte. Braves’ country reacted exactly how you would expect calling the suggestion ridiculous and stupid with many offering the same insults to Law himself. Neither of those things are true, but I’ll admit even my reaction to this idea was negative at first. “Braves don’t have enough good players as it is, how can they think about trading one away…” was my exact response, and while I still wouldn’t do it, it has more merit than may first appear.

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First of all, regardless of whether you move Acuna to RF or if you move Ender, you’re giving up potential value somewhere. Both guys are true center fielders and while there is value in playing great defense in RF, it’s a step down from the value you get from elite CF defense. I’ve seen people argue against this idea by saying Kemp-Ender-Acuna is way better than Kemp-Acuna-Markakis and while that specific statement is true, it’s actually not the question at hand. What you’re actually weighing is Kemp-Ender-Acuna vs Kemp-Acuna-Markakis and whatever you get in return for Ender in a trade. Theoretically, the value Inciarte brings to Atlanta as a CF can be extracted out via trade which you can add to another part of the team and would be greater than the diminishing value you’d have by moving one of the CFs to RF. The economic term for this, as Law mentioned, is a surplus. This idea only works, of course, if you're getting equal or greater value back in return for Ender so one thing Atlanta has no business doing is trading him for salary relief. Clearing bad contracts off the books is something the team will have to address at some point but using your valuable assets to facilitate such a move is a terrible idea. That's how Craig Kimbrel trades happen. No, it has to be talent for talent to make any sense. And regardless of your personal feelings toward Inciarte, it’s a valid argument.

But that isn’t the only argument. There’s another variable to trading Inciarte that has nothing to do with Ronald Acuna. Ender is an outfielder who derives just about all his value from defense. Ender was also a late bloomer in baseball and because of that he starts next year already 27-years-old. Those two facts combined have significance.  As we’ve learned more and more about defensive value and metrics over the last few years, one truth discovered is defense is a young man’s game. Especially outfield defense. The first things to go as players age is their legs, speed, and range and given that, it’s not hard to understand why outfield defense ages so poorly.

And in Ender’s case this is especially significant because he doesn’t have the bat to supplement that value. Inciarte’s wRC+ sits at 100 this year and at 96 for his career. That’s what he is, right at a league average hitter. Combine that with elite CF defense and you have a 3-4 WAR player. Take away that defensive value and you have Nick Markakis. Now at 27, Ender is in no threat of losing his defensive value next year, or probably the year after that. But the year after that? Maybe. And that’s most likely when Atlanta’s contention window will just be opening. And having one of your best players declining as you begin winning isn’t great planning. So this is an idea that has to at least be considered.

This is all very unlikely, of course, as I don’t think they'll do it and like I said at the top, I’m not even at the point where I think they should do it. But if a team looking to win a World Series in the next couple of years offered a serious package of prospects, and considering all the other factors, I seriously consider pulling the trigger.

A Quick Look at Something Cool Ronald Acuna Did

Ronald Acuña is quite good at baseball. If you’re unfamiliar, Acuña is a 19-year old phenom destroying competition 5+ years older than him and making his case for being the best prospect in all of baseball. I could fill several post on the greatness of Ronald Acuna but for today we’re going to get a little more specific. Actually, very specific. One pitch to be exact.

Recently he did this:

That’s a very impressive HR but after it was hit, it was followed by this tweet from the Gwinnett Braves official account:

#GBraves take the lead as Ronald Acuna unloads on one for a 2-run HR down the LF line. 114 mph off the bat and 370 feet to LF. 4-3 GWN, B6 pic.twitter.com/nmzo9H7BL7

— G-Braves Media (@GBravesMedia) July 18, 2017

Acuña hit that ball 114 mph. I’m sure I don’t have to tell you 114 mph is an absolutely destroyed batted ball. The average exit velocity in MLB for all batted balls is around 87 mph. But that number includes all the broken bats, bleeders, bloopers, and generally weak contact that happen in a season. If he we look at just home runs, the balls that were hit really well by the best hitters in the world, the major league average goes to 103 mph. That’s a significant jump from 87 mph and yet, still good ways away from Acuña’s blast.

How rare a feat is a 114 mph? Here’s a list a of the hardest batted balls by a Braves player this year:

All exit velocity data is via Baseball Savant

Despite having some rather large men who can hit the ball a long ways, the Braves haven’t had a single batted ball reach 114 mph this year. Or 113 for that matter. It’s just not that common.

In fact, in all of major league baseball this year only 119 of the balls put in play left the bat at 114 mph or greater. For context, Statcast tells us there’s been 87,483 batted ball events in 2017. That means .001% of all the balls in play this year have been hit as hard as Acuña hit this HR. It’s even crazier when consider of that 119,Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton account for 43 of them. That means the rest of baseball combined has only done it 76 times, or .0001%. And none of them were 19.

Unsurprisingly, the damage done on balls hit this hard is off the charts. Here are the numbers of the 119 balls hit a 114 mph or better:

• BA .778
• wOBA 1.086
• SLG% 1.843
• ISO 1.066

All of this is important because we’ve learned that hitting the ball hard is a skill. You don’t fluke your way to 114 mph. Most guys can’t physically hit a ball that hard. So showing the ability to do it, even once, puts Acuna is rarefied air in terms if skill set.

And the fact that he’s 19 can’t be overstated. He’s not fully physically mature yet. Guys like Stanton and Judge are in their mid-20s. Acuña is going to get bigger and stronger. This is the tip of the iceberg.

Yeah it’s one pitch. One AB. One HR. But it tells a much bigger story.