Over the next four days, I'll give a short preview of the other four NL East teams the Braves will deal with in their efforts to shock the world because they are totally not rebuilding this season. Let's start with the team that makes me feel better about the Braves.
Philadelphia Phillies
Additions: Jeff Francoeur, Kevin Slowey, Aaron Harang, Jordan Danks, Chad Billingsley,
Subtractions: Mike Adams, Kyle Kendrick, A.J. Burnett, Antonio Bastardo, Jimmy Rollins, Marlon Byrd
Rock Solid Win-Loss Prediction: 68-94
The Phillies finally got the memo this offseason and began to dissolve their veteran team, trading away Rollins and Byrd while attempting to cash in their biggest trade chip, Cole Hamels. They would also love it if you'd consider acquiring Ryan Howard. He'll eat fresh and they'll pay you a large sum. Since the Braves are absolutely not rebuilding in 2015, the Phillies look like a good bet to finish last in the NL East. They still have Carlos Ruiz and Chase Utley and Maikel Franco, who's been optioned, could be a pretty good player, but with Cliff Lee on the mend, their rotation has reached such a level that Harang is scheduled to be their second starter next year. Ouch.
Philly is a like the Braves in one way, though. The trades have helped to rejuvenate a sliding minor league system and has the Phillies poised to be a rising team in the coming years. But 2015 looks lean. The rotation could have used Cliff Lee staying healthy. As is, they look to be relying on David Buchanan, Jerome Williams, and Slowey, who looks to have beat out Cuban Miguel Gonzalez. Their lineup should have a bit of pop, though missing Domonic Brown will certainly hurt. They probably won't walk much and who knows how many games Utley will miss? I do like buying low on Billingsley. He could turn out to be a find.
Overall, this is a massively flawed team and one that looks worse by comparison to the Braves, who at least sport some good pitching and a solid and still young middle-of-the-lineup threat. One has to wonder if this might be Ruben Amaro Jr's last season at the helm, though one had to wonder that last year, too. They should be better sooner now that they have acknowledged that their team was broken, but when Francoeur looks like a good bet to be in the outfield mix, it's probably hurt to take solace in the future.
Showing posts with label Phils. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Phils. Show all posts
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Tuesday, December 2, 2014
Embrace the Rebuild and Consider a Kimbrel Trade
It's tempting when you have the best player at his position to want to keep him as long as possible. In football, if you have the best quarterback, you'll pay him whatever he wants and hope his success will compensate for a lack of depth on defense. In baseball, if you have the best pitcher, you give him whatever he desires. After all, you cannot replace Clayton Kershaw.
So, it is understandable that Craig Kimbrel was labelled untouchable and safe from being moved, according to WSB's Zach Klein in mid-November. Since becoming the Braves' closer four years ago, Kimbrel has saved 185 games, nearly 50 more than the next best total. Among relievers, he's K'd 436, or 25 more than the next pitcher on the list. His 1.51 ERA tops the list, slightly ahead of our old pal Eric O'Flaherty and only one pitcher tops Kimbrel's 0.88 WHIP. All the while, he has been incredibly durable, throwing the 8th most innings out of the pen in the 11th most games.
Last winter, Kimbrel was one of the players handed long-term extensions during Frank Wren's final offseason with the Braves. He earned $7M last year as part of the deal and is owed $9M in 2015, $11M in 2016, and $13M in 2017. In 2018, there exists a club option that would pay Kimbrel an additional $13M with a $1M buyout in case the option wasn't exercised. So, on the light end, Kimbrel is owed $34M over the next three seasons.
That's $34M the Braves would paying a guy to close games for a team that might not be competitive.
Pretty clear where I'm headed, right? Strike now and deal away Kimbrel if someone is willing. Don't give him away, but if there is a deal out there with a good return, take it.
Uh, you just said he's the best at this position. Shouldn't we want the best?
Most of the time, absolutely. You want the best center fielder (gotta work on that). You want the best starter (or second best since Kershaw is kinda locked up). You even want the best closer, but only if your team can optimize his talent. Closing the game is an often overrated "skill," but it pays handsomely and teams often are thoroughly concerned about what will happen if they are competitors that lack a shutdown guy. For a team rebuilding, though, a closer is not a necessity, but a luxury. The Phillies, for instance, are paying a considerable sum for Jonathan Papelbon. While an ass, he has been pretty good at his job. However, since joining Philly, his teams have won 81 games and 73 twice. Yet, in that time, he has been paid $37,000,058 and will get another $13M next year for a team largely considered to be, at best, a threat to finish .500.
Seems like a waste to me. That's $13M that Ruben Amaro Jr. could have sunk into someone who's older than 34.
Let me be clear. Kimbrel's not overpaid and the Braves won't be able to replace his talent. I think I pointed out how good those talents are. Let me add that I don't even know a team that it would make sense to deal Kimbrel to right now. The Yankees could use him, but would the Braves get the haul they must get in prospects from them? I doubt that. I don't want this to sound like a plea to trade Kimbrel asap. I'd rather keep him if there's no high-end package of talent coming Atlanta's way.
Also, it's worth noting that trading closers doesn't often bring back all that much. Last season, all the White Sox received for Addison Reed was Matt Davidson. Now, Davidson was a top-100 prospect before falling on his face last year, but Reed had four years of team control and was coming off a 40 save season. One B+ prospect for a pretty good closer who was 14th in fWAR among relievers that season? Back in the 2007-08 offseason, the Astros got a trio of players, led by Michael Bourn, for one year of control for Brad Lidge, but that example is a bit outdated and Bourn was the only piece that eventually became productive out of the trade.
If not now, maybe things could open up during the season. The Rangers picked up a pair of former high draft choices in pitchers Jake Thompson and Corey Knebel last July. Thompson is a starter with intriguing strikeout rates while Knebel is a reliever with incredible ratios, but neither jumped off the page as significant prospects. At the deadline in 2010, the Nationals picked up pitcher Joe Testa and a catcher for Matt Capps. Testa washed out, but the catcher, Wilson Ramos, would develop into a talented, if not often-injured, starter behind the plate. He was also a solid B to B+ prospect at the time of the trade.
A three-team deal with a flurry of moving parts might bring more Atlanta's way, though Atlanta would probably be moving more than just Kimbrel. Of course, the Braves could choose to go beyond a swap of Kimbrel and prospects and package another piece or two with Kimbrel. That's always a possibility especially if it helps the Braves acquire marquee talent.
Clearly, if Atlanta trades Kimbrel, there must be a high price tag that someone has met because other trades involving closers didn't bring in a return I think many fans, including myself, feel a player of Kimbrel's abilities deserve. You would think that once David Robertson, the best closer on the market, signs with a team this winter, teams would be desperate with only one other "closer" available in the form of Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod was good for the Brewers last year, but I don't think anyone's knocking each other over to attain his services. Sergio Romo and Rafael Soriano both were relieved of their closing duties last season so that's like tainted meat. Still, the sad fact that the market is so shallow also means so few teams are looking.
Maybe a team of the rise could be interested. Both Houston and the Cubs have a large cache of prospect talent, but neither seems like they are ready to make the jump and land a final piece to the puzzle like Kimbrel.
So, don't trade Kimbrel? Is that what you are saying?
No, not exactly. If there is an unlikely deal with a couple of big time prospects out there, take it. It's probably not there and Atlanta can't give away a commodity like Kimbrel. Maybe a team overreacts to an injury or ineffective play of their closer this season and is willing to pony up to the Braves' demands. If it's there, make it happen. Closers are a luxury and they definitely make things all tidy and defined in the pen, but are they needed? Well, the Giants won the World Series without their closer picking up the all important save in any game of the series...so, there's that.
I started this post with the idea that I would be convinced that trading Kimbrel was the sensible and smart thing to do. My mindset is simple. Closers are overrated and overpaid. That's my personal feeling and the market, nor the game of baseball, agrees with me. In Out of the Park, my theory checks out. I traded Kimbrel to save money and replaced him with a three-headed monster - a closer-by-committee - and it worked out the way I wanted. Three pitchers got around 15 or so saves and three others picked up about 3-5 of them. Kimbrel had a great year with Houston, the team I sent him to, and the prospects I acquired gave my system a shot in the arm. It worked out perfectly there.
But in real life, trading a closer is much more difficult and getting the return you desire is tricky. Kimbrel is a special case, just like he was in the build up to an arbitration hearing that ultimately did not happen. Trading him - while the move I would do in my head - is probably not the smart play unless a team gets desperate. Really desperate. Like day before the Prom desperate. And unfortunately, the right guy to make that trade is not only in Philly, but has little to offer.
So, it is understandable that Craig Kimbrel was labelled untouchable and safe from being moved, according to WSB's Zach Klein in mid-November. Since becoming the Braves' closer four years ago, Kimbrel has saved 185 games, nearly 50 more than the next best total. Among relievers, he's K'd 436, or 25 more than the next pitcher on the list. His 1.51 ERA tops the list, slightly ahead of our old pal Eric O'Flaherty and only one pitcher tops Kimbrel's 0.88 WHIP. All the while, he has been incredibly durable, throwing the 8th most innings out of the pen in the 11th most games.
Last winter, Kimbrel was one of the players handed long-term extensions during Frank Wren's final offseason with the Braves. He earned $7M last year as part of the deal and is owed $9M in 2015, $11M in 2016, and $13M in 2017. In 2018, there exists a club option that would pay Kimbrel an additional $13M with a $1M buyout in case the option wasn't exercised. So, on the light end, Kimbrel is owed $34M over the next three seasons.
That's $34M the Braves would paying a guy to close games for a team that might not be competitive.
Pretty clear where I'm headed, right? Strike now and deal away Kimbrel if someone is willing. Don't give him away, but if there is a deal out there with a good return, take it.
Uh, you just said he's the best at this position. Shouldn't we want the best?
Most of the time, absolutely. You want the best center fielder (gotta work on that). You want the best starter (or second best since Kershaw is kinda locked up). You even want the best closer, but only if your team can optimize his talent. Closing the game is an often overrated "skill," but it pays handsomely and teams often are thoroughly concerned about what will happen if they are competitors that lack a shutdown guy. For a team rebuilding, though, a closer is not a necessity, but a luxury. The Phillies, for instance, are paying a considerable sum for Jonathan Papelbon. While an ass, he has been pretty good at his job. However, since joining Philly, his teams have won 81 games and 73 twice. Yet, in that time, he has been paid $37,000,058 and will get another $13M next year for a team largely considered to be, at best, a threat to finish .500.
Seems like a waste to me. That's $13M that Ruben Amaro Jr. could have sunk into someone who's older than 34.
Let me be clear. Kimbrel's not overpaid and the Braves won't be able to replace his talent. I think I pointed out how good those talents are. Let me add that I don't even know a team that it would make sense to deal Kimbrel to right now. The Yankees could use him, but would the Braves get the haul they must get in prospects from them? I doubt that. I don't want this to sound like a plea to trade Kimbrel asap. I'd rather keep him if there's no high-end package of talent coming Atlanta's way.
Also, it's worth noting that trading closers doesn't often bring back all that much. Last season, all the White Sox received for Addison Reed was Matt Davidson. Now, Davidson was a top-100 prospect before falling on his face last year, but Reed had four years of team control and was coming off a 40 save season. One B+ prospect for a pretty good closer who was 14th in fWAR among relievers that season? Back in the 2007-08 offseason, the Astros got a trio of players, led by Michael Bourn, for one year of control for Brad Lidge, but that example is a bit outdated and Bourn was the only piece that eventually became productive out of the trade.
If not now, maybe things could open up during the season. The Rangers picked up a pair of former high draft choices in pitchers Jake Thompson and Corey Knebel last July. Thompson is a starter with intriguing strikeout rates while Knebel is a reliever with incredible ratios, but neither jumped off the page as significant prospects. At the deadline in 2010, the Nationals picked up pitcher Joe Testa and a catcher for Matt Capps. Testa washed out, but the catcher, Wilson Ramos, would develop into a talented, if not often-injured, starter behind the plate. He was also a solid B to B+ prospect at the time of the trade.
A three-team deal with a flurry of moving parts might bring more Atlanta's way, though Atlanta would probably be moving more than just Kimbrel. Of course, the Braves could choose to go beyond a swap of Kimbrel and prospects and package another piece or two with Kimbrel. That's always a possibility especially if it helps the Braves acquire marquee talent.
Clearly, if Atlanta trades Kimbrel, there must be a high price tag that someone has met because other trades involving closers didn't bring in a return I think many fans, including myself, feel a player of Kimbrel's abilities deserve. You would think that once David Robertson, the best closer on the market, signs with a team this winter, teams would be desperate with only one other "closer" available in the form of Francisco Rodriguez. K-Rod was good for the Brewers last year, but I don't think anyone's knocking each other over to attain his services. Sergio Romo and Rafael Soriano both were relieved of their closing duties last season so that's like tainted meat. Still, the sad fact that the market is so shallow also means so few teams are looking.
Maybe a team of the rise could be interested. Both Houston and the Cubs have a large cache of prospect talent, but neither seems like they are ready to make the jump and land a final piece to the puzzle like Kimbrel.
So, don't trade Kimbrel? Is that what you are saying?
No, not exactly. If there is an unlikely deal with a couple of big time prospects out there, take it. It's probably not there and Atlanta can't give away a commodity like Kimbrel. Maybe a team overreacts to an injury or ineffective play of their closer this season and is willing to pony up to the Braves' demands. If it's there, make it happen. Closers are a luxury and they definitely make things all tidy and defined in the pen, but are they needed? Well, the Giants won the World Series without their closer picking up the all important save in any game of the series...so, there's that.
I started this post with the idea that I would be convinced that trading Kimbrel was the sensible and smart thing to do. My mindset is simple. Closers are overrated and overpaid. That's my personal feeling and the market, nor the game of baseball, agrees with me. In Out of the Park, my theory checks out. I traded Kimbrel to save money and replaced him with a three-headed monster - a closer-by-committee - and it worked out the way I wanted. Three pitchers got around 15 or so saves and three others picked up about 3-5 of them. Kimbrel had a great year with Houston, the team I sent him to, and the prospects I acquired gave my system a shot in the arm. It worked out perfectly there.
But in real life, trading a closer is much more difficult and getting the return you desire is tricky. Kimbrel is a special case, just like he was in the build up to an arbitration hearing that ultimately did not happen. Trading him - while the move I would do in my head - is probably not the smart play unless a team gets desperate. Really desperate. Like day before the Prom desperate. And unfortunately, the right guy to make that trade is not only in Philly, but has little to offer.
Saturday, November 15, 2014
Frenchy Goes Philly
How absolutely perfect is it that Jeff Francoeur is now a Phillie? After all, the Phillies are an organization that is not expected to finish with a winning record, yet they will pay three players at least $23M next year. This is the same organization that refused to truly entertain the idea of trading Chase Utley last year when his value was at his highest. And while Frank Wren is circling job ads in the classifieds, Ruben Amaro Jr. continues as the GM for the Phillies. And now, Frenchy. How perfect.
It wasn't that long ago that the Braves were crossing their fingers before the 2002 draft that no team would take the plunge on drafting Francoeur before the Braves' first selection, the 23rd overall. Francoeur, who was committed to Clemson where he would play football, had informed other teams that his future included either the Braves or a shot playing defensive back for Clemson. Makes you wonder what the Braves would have done had the Phillies selected Francoeur 17th instead of Cole Hamels. What if the Indians picked Francoeur 22nd, right in front of the Braves, instead of Jeremy Gutherie? Who would have been next on Roy Clark's big board? A pair of college righties like Guthrie and Joe Blanton (picked #24th)? Or maybe Matt Cain, the high school senior from Germantown, TN?
But as we know, it was the Braves that drafted Francoeur with their first choice in 2002 and invested $2.2M into Francoeur to convince him to give up the silly dream of playing for Tommy Bowden. That signing bonus remained the largest the Braves had given to an amateur until 2009, when Mike Minor signed a $2.42M signing bonus. Once he signed, Francoeur would rake at Danville and the 19 year-old was quickly pushed to Rome. The Braves, for years it seems, love to let their minor league prospects settle into being in a full season atmosphere with a full year at low-A which is what Rome is. Brian McCann joined him for a full year and later bromancers Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward spent nearly all of a full season with Rome. They would hit the fast lane after their time in Rome, but the Braves appear to want them to get their feet wet for a full season in one spot before doing too much moving.
Whereas Francoeur hammered Appalachain League pitching in 2002, his numbers were impressive, but not knock-your-socks off with Rome. He lashed .281/.325/.444 with 30 walks and 68 K's. He also grounded into 21 soul-killing double plays. Still, the argument was solid. He was young for the level. He would head to Myrtle Beach to open 2004 and got some of his mojo back, though he still couldn't be bothered to take a walk. He also took one off the cheek trying to bunt after a promotion to Greenville. In 2005, Francoeur again posted numbers similar to his previous production. .275/.322/.487. He was a top-20 prospect, though, and the Braves needed lots of help in the major leagues. So, naturally bringing up their home-grown star prospect was only reasonable. The Braves were trying to make due with several players surrounding Andruw Jones. It should be noted Andruw was having the best season of his career (.263/.347/.575, 51 HR), but he had Brian Jordan in left and Raul Mondesi in right to open the year. Clearly not the best combination of players. Ryan Langerhans began to take playing time away from Mondesi and at the end of May, Mondesi was cut in favor of Kelly Johnson, who took over as the regular in left. The Braves were in second place on July 7th, trying to catch the surprising Nationals. Atlanta was still doing well at 47-37 so it's not like Francoeur was a savior to a lost season, but the Braves needed a spart. Following a rain out, the Braves played a double header against the Cubs. After Horacio Ramirez of all people tossed a shutout in the opener, ESPN had the night cap and Francoeur joined the major league team, playing right and batting seventh. His first at-bat ended on a groundout to open the third and he stranded a pair with a strikeout in the fourth. He also K'd to end the sixth, bringing us to the 8th inning. The Cubs were up 4-3 when Marcus Giles opened things off Roberto Novoa with a triple to right. Andruw did what he did a lot of that year and hit a massive game-changing homer. Yet, what we remember was Francoeur's three-run, full-count homer off Glendon Rusch that extended the lead to 8-4. The Braves scored six runs that inning and cruised to a victory, but it was Francoeur's homer in his first game with his dad watching that was etched in the memory of Braves' fans.
I remember being on the now defunct Chopnation forums ahead of Francoeur's call-up and talking about how he hadn't shown progression as a player and was a very flawed player. I felt, in comparison to his best buddy McCann, Francoeur was not ready. He was showing no maturation. But on that day, even I was awestruck when the ball left his bat and landed beyond Turner Field's walls that insure no cheapies.
Francoeur would go on to finish third in the Rookie of the Year voting while OPSing .884 in 70 games, but he ended the year on a .212/.244/.341 slash over his final 22 games. In the brief, awful NLDS against the Astros, Francoeur had four hits in 21 PA. Yet, the expectations were crazy high for Francoeur in 2006. His first full season and he had the opportunity to take the torch away from Chipper Jones. He belted a career-best 29 HR, but he also on-based just .293. To put that in a different way, in his 686 PA, he made outs in 485 in them. That is Chris Johnson-ugly. But amazingly, many looked at his 29 HR and 103 RBI and counted the season as a good one. But 17 unintentional walks in 686 PA? Wow.
However, Francoeur bounced back in 2007 and his career was back on track. He slashed a very acceptable .293/.338/.444 with 42 walks (only 5 intentional). It remains the most walks he has ever had in a season in the major leagues, plus the best OBP. There was actually some real hope that Francoeur had turned a corner. Sure, maybe he wasn't "The Natural," but he was still productive. He even won an undeserving Gold Glove. While Francoeur would have a good year with the Royals, I still count his 2007 season as the best of his career.
Things quickly unraveled for Francoeur. He slashed .239/.294/.359 in 2008, which also included a very public demotion to Mississippi that lasted just about long enough for bloggers like me to praise the Braves for making the right move. Francoeur said he felt betrayed by the demotion. I think there were a good amount of fans like me who probably felt betrayed by his quick recall.
Francoeur would struggle again the following season and the 25 year-old would be shipped off to the Mets for Ryan Church. Francoeur would actually finish strong, putting up a good 70-game run for the second time in his career to put hope in his team. Meanwhile, Church, who was a fairly talent ballplayer in his own right, had struggled to perform after concussions had taken away his best playing days. But this move, much like yesterday's Kyle Wren trade, had little to do about an exchange of talent or improving the team and/or organization. This trade was about getting rid of Francoeur. Another demotion would likely have exploded into another bitchfest to the media and the Braves simply couldn't keep Francoeur around. It was too much.
As I said, Francoeur finished strong with the Mets who brought him back through arbitration for another season. That was more than the Braves did with Church, who was non-tendered. Francoeur would have another woeful season and was eventually sent packing to the Rangers. Amazingly, he would play in the World Series for the first time in 2010, as the Rangers lost to the Giants. He went 0 for 6 against San Francisco with a walk. The following season, Francoeur latched onto the Royals and posted his best season outside of a Braves uniform, hitting a career-high 71 extra-base hits with 22 of his 52 career steals. He actually got a two-year, $13.5M extension out of it, but never was able to reclaim his glory. The Royals would release Francoeur in July of 2013 and he got his shot with the Giants for about a month before they too cut him.
2014 started for Francoeur like it did for Aaron Harang. Trying to make the Cleveland Indians roster. Two days before Harang was cut on March 24th, Francoeur was cut and three days later, he hooked on with the Padres. He posted decent enough numbers with the Padres highest minor league squad and also appeared in ten forgetful games with San Diego, but his season was far more notable for a prank his teammates in El Paso played on him. Plus, he was used eight times as a pitcher as a mop-up reliever. That's something of note, I guess.
And now, he's a Phillie. The Face of the Baby Braves...the guy who made the cover of Sports Illustrated...the guy who had his big ESPN moment against the Cubs all those years ago...
As much as I hated Francoeur back in the day - and trust me, I railed against the guy in forums and blog posts while giving no respect - I can't help but hope he gets back to the majors with the Phillies. That's not just because it gives me something to make fun of. After all, it's the Phillies. They give you plenty so you don't need Francoeur. But he's apparently a good enough guy and it's not his fault he was overhyped to such a large degree. And I'm sure if he looked back at it, he would feel a little different about that demotion to Mississippi a long time ago. He probably wouldn't whine about it. You also have to respect a guy who has made over $25M in baseball and is still willing to keep trying. He'll be 31 by the time the 2015 season begins, but he's still on buses trying to get back to the majors and stay. I think if any of us could play baseball professionally, we would do it until the calls stopped. Good luck, Frenchy. After all, how worse can you be than Domonic Brown anyway?
It wasn't that long ago that the Braves were crossing their fingers before the 2002 draft that no team would take the plunge on drafting Francoeur before the Braves' first selection, the 23rd overall. Francoeur, who was committed to Clemson where he would play football, had informed other teams that his future included either the Braves or a shot playing defensive back for Clemson. Makes you wonder what the Braves would have done had the Phillies selected Francoeur 17th instead of Cole Hamels. What if the Indians picked Francoeur 22nd, right in front of the Braves, instead of Jeremy Gutherie? Who would have been next on Roy Clark's big board? A pair of college righties like Guthrie and Joe Blanton (picked #24th)? Or maybe Matt Cain, the high school senior from Germantown, TN?
But as we know, it was the Braves that drafted Francoeur with their first choice in 2002 and invested $2.2M into Francoeur to convince him to give up the silly dream of playing for Tommy Bowden. That signing bonus remained the largest the Braves had given to an amateur until 2009, when Mike Minor signed a $2.42M signing bonus. Once he signed, Francoeur would rake at Danville and the 19 year-old was quickly pushed to Rome. The Braves, for years it seems, love to let their minor league prospects settle into being in a full season atmosphere with a full year at low-A which is what Rome is. Brian McCann joined him for a full year and later bromancers Freddie Freeman and Jason Heyward spent nearly all of a full season with Rome. They would hit the fast lane after their time in Rome, but the Braves appear to want them to get their feet wet for a full season in one spot before doing too much moving.
I remember being on the now defunct Chopnation forums ahead of Francoeur's call-up and talking about how he hadn't shown progression as a player and was a very flawed player. I felt, in comparison to his best buddy McCann, Francoeur was not ready. He was showing no maturation. But on that day, even I was awestruck when the ball left his bat and landed beyond Turner Field's walls that insure no cheapies.
However, Francoeur bounced back in 2007 and his career was back on track. He slashed a very acceptable .293/.338/.444 with 42 walks (only 5 intentional). It remains the most walks he has ever had in a season in the major leagues, plus the best OBP. There was actually some real hope that Francoeur had turned a corner. Sure, maybe he wasn't "The Natural," but he was still productive. He even won an undeserving Gold Glove. While Francoeur would have a good year with the Royals, I still count his 2007 season as the best of his career.
Things quickly unraveled for Francoeur. He slashed .239/.294/.359 in 2008, which also included a very public demotion to Mississippi that lasted just about long enough for bloggers like me to praise the Braves for making the right move. Francoeur said he felt betrayed by the demotion. I think there were a good amount of fans like me who probably felt betrayed by his quick recall.
As I said, Francoeur finished strong with the Mets who brought him back through arbitration for another season. That was more than the Braves did with Church, who was non-tendered. Francoeur would have another woeful season and was eventually sent packing to the Rangers. Amazingly, he would play in the World Series for the first time in 2010, as the Rangers lost to the Giants. He went 0 for 6 against San Francisco with a walk. The following season, Francoeur latched onto the Royals and posted his best season outside of a Braves uniform, hitting a career-high 71 extra-base hits with 22 of his 52 career steals. He actually got a two-year, $13.5M extension out of it, but never was able to reclaim his glory. The Royals would release Francoeur in July of 2013 and he got his shot with the Giants for about a month before they too cut him.
And now, he's a Phillie. The Face of the Baby Braves...the guy who made the cover of Sports Illustrated...the guy who had his big ESPN moment against the Cubs all those years ago...
Monday, May 26, 2014
Roger McDowell Deserves More Credit
Last offseason, the Phillies tried to raid the Braves coaching staff, talking to Roger McDowell. A former member of the Phillies during parts of three seasons, McDowell was offered an undisclosed amount of money from Philly that was more than the Braves were paying him. Atlanta was face with the possibility of needing a new pitching coach, but acted positively to keep McDowell, increasing his salary and inking him to a new two-year contract.
After famously replacing the departing Leo Mazzone ahead of the 2006 season, McDowell's hiring was criticized. Rockin' Leo was held to just regard by Braves fans that anyone replacing him would have a tough time. Whenever a legend is replaced, whether it's Bear Bryant, John Wooden, or even Bobby Cox, one of the common narratives that follows is how no one wants to replace a legend. Be the guy who replaces the guy who replaced the legend. It's a lot easier. Whether Leo was the truly legend Braves fans make him...he did have three Hall of Fame pitchers...he was still regarded as such.
McDowell's first season was rocky. The Streak came to an end as the Braves won 79 and gave up 805 runs. Gone was a pair of Hall of Famers. In their place was a good, but declining John Smoltz. Tim Hudson was awful. The rest of the staff was built on guys who would be out of the bigs within a couple of years. Chris Reitsma was miscast as a closer. Ken Ray appeared in 69 games. Pitching coaches can't do much with an old team that lacks talent. Still, the pitching was much improved the following season, finishing third in ERA despite relying on Chuck James, Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, Lance Cormier, Mark Redman, Jeff Bennett, and Anthony Lerew to start 96 games.
The Braves gave McDowell a young starter in Jair Jurrjens in 2008 and under McDowell's stewardship, Jurrjens progressed into an All-Star. McDowell got the most out of Jorge Campillo and Bennett, though talent was still lacking so the Braves finally addressed the elephant in the room in 2009, getting Javier Vazquez and Derek Lowe. Tommy Hanson came up and was very good. McDowell got his hands on Kris Medlen and Eric O'Flaherty and both flourished. In the coming years, he would get solid innings from Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy, Jonny Venters, David Carpenter, Anthony Varvaro, and Craig Kimbrel. The latter might be his most amazing accomplishment. Kimbrel walked 5.7 BB/9 in the minors, but during his Rookie of the Year season, he lowered that to 3.7 BB/9.
There are many more names. Since McDowell took over as the pitching coach, the Braves have posted a 3.76 ERA, good for second in baseball behind the Dodgers' 3.71 in the same time frame. They are sixth in K/9, second in GB%, and second in WHIP. Under McDowell, the bullpen ERA of 3.41 is also second in baseball.
The Second Spitter deserved his pay raise. He deserves another based on what he has done this season with a staff that lost Medlen and Beachy and opened the year with Minor on the shelf. Venters is still trying to work his way back. He took a guy nobody thought deserved a long-term deal in Ervin Santana and has him clicking. Oh, and the spare part known as Aaron Harang? Experiencing a resurgence that doesn't even look like smoke and mirrors (2.29 FIP). They took a sub-3.00 ERA into today's action against the Red Sox, a number that is not likely to be maintained, but it's also a representation of the talent and coaching the Braves are fortunate enough to have. McDowell has his detractors and he did embarrass himself, and the team, in San Francisco a few years back.
Nevertheless, as a pitching coach, he has few peers. Some might point to the injuries, though that is happening league-wide. Atlanta is quite lucky to have McDowell for the foreseeable future.
After famously replacing the departing Leo Mazzone ahead of the 2006 season, McDowell's hiring was criticized. Rockin' Leo was held to just regard by Braves fans that anyone replacing him would have a tough time. Whenever a legend is replaced, whether it's Bear Bryant, John Wooden, or even Bobby Cox, one of the common narratives that follows is how no one wants to replace a legend. Be the guy who replaces the guy who replaced the legend. It's a lot easier. Whether Leo was the truly legend Braves fans make him...he did have three Hall of Fame pitchers...he was still regarded as such.
McDowell's first season was rocky. The Streak came to an end as the Braves won 79 and gave up 805 runs. Gone was a pair of Hall of Famers. In their place was a good, but declining John Smoltz. Tim Hudson was awful. The rest of the staff was built on guys who would be out of the bigs within a couple of years. Chris Reitsma was miscast as a closer. Ken Ray appeared in 69 games. Pitching coaches can't do much with an old team that lacks talent. Still, the pitching was much improved the following season, finishing third in ERA despite relying on Chuck James, Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, Lance Cormier, Mark Redman, Jeff Bennett, and Anthony Lerew to start 96 games.
The Braves gave McDowell a young starter in Jair Jurrjens in 2008 and under McDowell's stewardship, Jurrjens progressed into an All-Star. McDowell got the most out of Jorge Campillo and Bennett, though talent was still lacking so the Braves finally addressed the elephant in the room in 2009, getting Javier Vazquez and Derek Lowe. Tommy Hanson came up and was very good. McDowell got his hands on Kris Medlen and Eric O'Flaherty and both flourished. In the coming years, he would get solid innings from Mike Minor, Julio Teheran, Brandon Beachy, Jonny Venters, David Carpenter, Anthony Varvaro, and Craig Kimbrel. The latter might be his most amazing accomplishment. Kimbrel walked 5.7 BB/9 in the minors, but during his Rookie of the Year season, he lowered that to 3.7 BB/9.
There are many more names. Since McDowell took over as the pitching coach, the Braves have posted a 3.76 ERA, good for second in baseball behind the Dodgers' 3.71 in the same time frame. They are sixth in K/9, second in GB%, and second in WHIP. Under McDowell, the bullpen ERA of 3.41 is also second in baseball.
The Second Spitter deserved his pay raise. He deserves another based on what he has done this season with a staff that lost Medlen and Beachy and opened the year with Minor on the shelf. Venters is still trying to work his way back. He took a guy nobody thought deserved a long-term deal in Ervin Santana and has him clicking. Oh, and the spare part known as Aaron Harang? Experiencing a resurgence that doesn't even look like smoke and mirrors (2.29 FIP). They took a sub-3.00 ERA into today's action against the Red Sox, a number that is not likely to be maintained, but it's also a representation of the talent and coaching the Braves are fortunate enough to have. McDowell has his detractors and he did embarrass himself, and the team, in San Francisco a few years back.
Nevertheless, as a pitching coach, he has few peers. Some might point to the injuries, though that is happening league-wide. Atlanta is quite lucky to have McDowell for the foreseeable future.
Friday, January 24, 2014
The Golden Phils
How old are the Phillies?
Their young star Domonic Brown turned 26 last September. He's about a week and a half younger than Braves veteran Justin Upton. Other younger veterans on the Braves include Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, and Mike Minor.
The prized new addition of the Phillies is Bobby Abreu. He made it to the bigs the year after Chipper Jones's first full season in the majors. Alex Wood was five years old. Abreu's first major league hit came against the New York Mets' Bobby Jones. Abreu had pinch hit for Todd Jones. There was no relation between the two Jones, nor with Chipper Jones. Derek Bell, who famously originated Operation Shutdown, had a double against Bobby Jones, one of just four hits Jones gave up in a 119-pitch shutout.
Wil Nieves, who the Phillies had to hunt down in order to find a backup catcher older than their starter, was a rookie when he caught Bobby Jones. I link to baseball-reference and I'm fairly sure Bobby Jones has been mentioned more in this blog than he has been mentioned in the last five years. In 2002, Nieves also caught Trevor Hoffman, former Braves Steve Reed and Alan Embree, and a completely different Bobby Jones. Nieves even played on a team that Ron Gant played 102 games for.
It is very difficult to lose 37 year-old Michael Young and get older. But the Phillies, who are estimated to spend close to $160M this season, are likely to accomplish this. In addition to Abreu, the Phillies signed 36 year-old Marlon Byrd to a two-year contract and brought 33 year-old Roberto Hernandez aboard for the ride.
Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. hasn't played since 1998. That was Abreu's first season with the Phillies. Abreu is the only player from that team still playing.
In his first full season, Jimmy Rollins was a young star on a team that included youngins' such as Johnny Estrada and Pat Burrell.
Jayson Werth is younger than 2/3's of the outfield that he left before 2011. Werth, who will turn 35 in May, would also be younger than three other expected starters from the eight that will make up the starting squad and is only a half-year older than Ryan Howard, who is due at least $85M over the next three seasons.
Their young gun, Cole Hamels, is already 30. Gavin Floyd is the only starter the Braves have who has already celebrated his 30th birthday or will during this season. In fact, the Braves's current 30 year-olds include a second baseman who might not even start this season, a catcher/outfielder who is being counted on to provide a bat off the bench, a backup catcher, and the aforementioned Floyd. Oh, and Jose Constanza, but we don't count him.
In the bullpen, the Phillies have, you guessed it, a good deal of experience. Amazingly, it's very young for this team despite employing 33 year-old Jonathan Papelbon and 35 year-old Mike Adams. New Phillie Chad Gaudin got a minor league deal and might be the fifth starter, but if not, the 31 year-old likely has a job by just being old in the Phillies pen. Johnny Venters is the old guy for the Braves bullpen. Old Faithful turns 29 on March 20th. Anthony Varvaro is already 29, but since Fredi Gonzalez likes to forget about him, I figured I might as well ignore that tidbit.
The Phillies are on the hook for $112M in 2014 already, including three players making at least $22.5M. They were also in on Masahiro Tanaka before the pitcher signed with the Yankees. According to Amaro, they weren't willing to give him anything beyond five years despite giving Carlos Ruiz a new three-year contract with a fourth-year option. Tanaka will be 25 all next season and would be younger than almost every expected member of the Phillies next season. But, he was too much of a chance to go beyond five years with.
The Phillies will spend $60M more than the Braves next season. With that money, the Braves could have brought back Tim Hudson, Brian McCann, and Eric O'Flaherty and got into the Robinson Cano bidding. That is pretty crazy when you consider how much money the Phillies will be spending and for how little. Last year, former Phillie Werth said the biggest challenger to the Nationals repeating in 2013 was the Phillies. A year later, you start to think that the Phillies might not even be the Nationals' biggest challenger to second place. Ruben Amaro Jr. was basically handed the job in Philly. Maybe they might want to consider an actual general manager next.
Their young star Domonic Brown turned 26 last September. He's about a week and a half younger than Braves veteran Justin Upton. Other younger veterans on the Braves include Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, and Mike Minor.
The prized new addition of the Phillies is Bobby Abreu. He made it to the bigs the year after Chipper Jones's first full season in the majors. Alex Wood was five years old. Abreu's first major league hit came against the New York Mets' Bobby Jones. Abreu had pinch hit for Todd Jones. There was no relation between the two Jones, nor with Chipper Jones. Derek Bell, who famously originated Operation Shutdown, had a double against Bobby Jones, one of just four hits Jones gave up in a 119-pitch shutout.
Wil Nieves, who the Phillies had to hunt down in order to find a backup catcher older than their starter, was a rookie when he caught Bobby Jones. I link to baseball-reference and I'm fairly sure Bobby Jones has been mentioned more in this blog than he has been mentioned in the last five years. In 2002, Nieves also caught Trevor Hoffman, former Braves Steve Reed and Alan Embree, and a completely different Bobby Jones. Nieves even played on a team that Ron Gant played 102 games for.
It is very difficult to lose 37 year-old Michael Young and get older. But the Phillies, who are estimated to spend close to $160M this season, are likely to accomplish this. In addition to Abreu, the Phillies signed 36 year-old Marlon Byrd to a two-year contract and brought 33 year-old Roberto Hernandez aboard for the ride.
Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. hasn't played since 1998. That was Abreu's first season with the Phillies. Abreu is the only player from that team still playing.
In his first full season, Jimmy Rollins was a young star on a team that included youngins' such as Johnny Estrada and Pat Burrell.
Jayson Werth is younger than 2/3's of the outfield that he left before 2011. Werth, who will turn 35 in May, would also be younger than three other expected starters from the eight that will make up the starting squad and is only a half-year older than Ryan Howard, who is due at least $85M over the next three seasons.
Their young gun, Cole Hamels, is already 30. Gavin Floyd is the only starter the Braves have who has already celebrated his 30th birthday or will during this season. In fact, the Braves's current 30 year-olds include a second baseman who might not even start this season, a catcher/outfielder who is being counted on to provide a bat off the bench, a backup catcher, and the aforementioned Floyd. Oh, and Jose Constanza, but we don't count him.
In the bullpen, the Phillies have, you guessed it, a good deal of experience. Amazingly, it's very young for this team despite employing 33 year-old Jonathan Papelbon and 35 year-old Mike Adams. New Phillie Chad Gaudin got a minor league deal and might be the fifth starter, but if not, the 31 year-old likely has a job by just being old in the Phillies pen. Johnny Venters is the old guy for the Braves bullpen. Old Faithful turns 29 on March 20th. Anthony Varvaro is already 29, but since Fredi Gonzalez likes to forget about him, I figured I might as well ignore that tidbit.
The Phillies are on the hook for $112M in 2014 already, including three players making at least $22.5M. They were also in on Masahiro Tanaka before the pitcher signed with the Yankees. According to Amaro, they weren't willing to give him anything beyond five years despite giving Carlos Ruiz a new three-year contract with a fourth-year option. Tanaka will be 25 all next season and would be younger than almost every expected member of the Phillies next season. But, he was too much of a chance to go beyond five years with.
The Phillies will spend $60M more than the Braves next season. With that money, the Braves could have brought back Tim Hudson, Brian McCann, and Eric O'Flaherty and got into the Robinson Cano bidding. That is pretty crazy when you consider how much money the Phillies will be spending and for how little. Last year, former Phillie Werth said the biggest challenger to the Nationals repeating in 2013 was the Phillies. A year later, you start to think that the Phillies might not even be the Nationals' biggest challenger to second place. Ruben Amaro Jr. was basically handed the job in Philly. Maybe they might want to consider an actual general manager next.
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