Braves TJ Victims

(Here is Ryan Cothran's third piece for Walk-Off Walk. Soon enough, he's going to have to get his own account working here at WOW :) His first piece, which was an analysis into BABIP, can be found here. In addition, his second piece, which discussed recent bullpen improvements and what's coming up the chain, can be found here. Remember to follow Ryan on twitter.)

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I’ve been a can’t waiter for years. I’m no longer going to be a can’t waiter. For the sake of my sanity, I can’t be a can’t waiter. What is a can’t waiter, you might ask? I guess I could assume you can’t wait to know. Well, I can’t wait to tell you.

A can’t waiter is an individual that looks at the Minor League teams of which he/she roots for, scours the roster, finds players that are having serious success, pines for said players to receive call-ups immediately, and talks daily how they can’t wait to see them kicking butt in the MLB like it’s a given that they’ll:

• Stay Healthy  
• Dominate the best baseball players in the world as much as they’ve dominated lesser players (although much better than anyone who’ll likely read this, your’s truly included).

Of the 2 listed above, the Braves have taken an extreme gamble by rolling the dice on (A) in their acquisitions/signings.  When I was writing for Tomahawk Take, I noticed a serious trend of the Braves signing/acquiring players that were either recovering at the time from Tommy John surgery, hadn’t made it back to the field from setbacks from Tommy John, or hadn’t found the success they were seeing prior to going down with injury.  I called it the Braves form of Moneyball, and you can click to see the old article.

*Disclaimer: Let it be known that aside from roster spots, a small chunk of change, and patience out the WAZOO, this gamble has been relatively small in terms of players traded and risks involved. 

At the time, it seemed really smart. Most of MLB teams weren’t in a place to offer these guys guaranteed money, give them a 40-man spot, or go through the bumps that comes with pitchers pitching back to form.  I thought it was brilliant!  In hindsight, it hasn’t worked out in most cases.  It was a gamble that others weren’t taking and with a rebuild in-tow, it was worth giving it a shot.

On Twitter, there have been many to poke fun at the Mets and their lacking ability to keep their pitchers on the field.  The Braves haven’t been much better. Their own list is VAST! While many of these didn’t succumb to injury while pitching for the Braves, it doesn’t negate the fact the we as Braves fans should not wag tongues or point fingers.  Here is a likely incomplete list of pitchers that have been in the organization in the last 5-6 years and have had the surgery:

Players that have been in Braves Organization and had Tommy John Surgery

Current Major Leaguers

• Jason Grilli - TJ surgery early in his career and came back a stronger and more efficient pitcher. 
• *Arodys Vizcaino
• Eric O’Flaherty - hasn’t been same since 2013 surgery.  70 innings total, but 40 innings of bad baseball with the Braves
• Alex Wood - traded in 2015, injured most of ‘16, and pitching brilliantly currently with Dodgers
• Jason Motte - TJ in 2013, has pitched mediocre baseball since return. Been pitching well lately.
• Sam Freeman - TJ in 2010, has had mixed results, although I’m not sure it’s related to TJ. Has been pitching brilliantly the last few weeks.
• Peter Moylan - Had TJ surgery in 2008, was effective for the next 3 years in a Braves uniform. Has struggled lately with the Royals.

Current Minor Leaguers

• *Manny Banuelos
• *Josh Outman
• Brandon Beachy - 8 innings in MLB since with 7.88 ERA
• Kris Medlen - 82 innings in MLB since with 5.99 ERA, but had a dominant outing with the Florida Fire Frogs a few days back.
• Jonny Venters - 3 TJ surgeries (maybe 4?) no MLB innings since 1st surgery
• *Andrew McKirahan
• *Jesse Biddle
• *Max Fried
• *AJ Minter
• Brady Feigl- traded, pitching well in High-A for Texas
• *Jacob Lindgren
• Chris Withrow - released mysteriously, but hasn’t made it back to field. 37.2 innings of decent relief.
• Shae Simmons - briefly pitched in Atlanta last year, traded.
• *Daniel Winkler
• David Peterson - Had TJ surgery in 2013, has had relative success in the Braves minor league system.

Retired Major Leaguers

• Billy Wagner - Had TJ surgery in 2008, came back dominant in Boston and then Atlanta
• Tim Hudson - TJ surgery in 2008, pitched effectively for rest of his career.

Not currently affiliated with any team

• Michael Kohn - Had TJ surgery in 2012, other arm injuries have kept him from contributing.
• *Paco Rodriguez
• Mark Lamm - Had TJ surgery, never made it to MLB and was last pitching in the Indy Leagues

Notice the players with asterisks and lack of breakdown? Know what they represent?  They’re some of the source of the “can’t waiters” happiness. These players were either bought low on due to injury or drafted low due to injury. They had big ceilings at one point and lost their luster due to injury. But should we be putting stock into these guys? Let’s dissect a bit…

Man, I can’t wait til we see *insert recovering flamethrower*

Manny Banuelos - When the trade went down, it was looked at as a landslide win for the Braves. Now? Manny is no longer with the Braves being DFA’d at the end of 2016. Meanwhile, Chasen Shreve has been part of the Yankees bullpen the last 3 years, pitching over 100 innings with a mid-3s ERA. All the while our left-handed relief pitching has been a dumpster fire for those 3 years.

Paco Rodriguez - Was a bit of a throw-in in what is likely to go down as the worst trade of Coppy’s tenure. Was recovering from Tommy John when acquired and spent time rehabbing. After looking fair in 2017 Spring Training, he was released and word was leaked that he had poor work ethic.

Arodys Vizcaino - Acquired from the Yankees, traded to the Cubs, re-acquired from the Cubs, Vizzy has pitched 86.2 innings of good baseball out of the Braves bullpen, but has had his fair share of injuries along the way and hasn’t totaled 40 innings in either of the 2 full years since acquisition, granted the first year was due to an 80-game suspension.  He’s been pitching lights out lately.

Josh Outman - Gifted with an ideal surname for a pitcher, Outman was a buy-low project prior to the 2015 season due to 2014 Tommy John surgery and thought likely to break the Braves 25-man roster. He ended up pitching 8.2 innings in the Minors and had shoulder issues nearly the entire year.

Andrew McKirahan - Claimed from the Marlins and already down a Tommy John surgery, McK got busted for cheating, returned and pitched poorly for the Braves in 2015, then re-ripped his UCL, and hasn’t pitched since mid-2015. He's currently in the Reds organization after an offseason trade.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Jesse Biddle - Had Tommy John surgery in 2015 and was claimed by the Braves in March of 2016 by the Pirates. He’s now pitching meaningful games in Mississippi with mixed results.

Max Fried - Acquired from the Padres in the Justin Upton deal, Fried was recovering from Tommy John surgery and was deemed recovered at the end of the 2016 season. Down the stretch, he was absolutely dominant but has struggled with consistency in 2017 which is very common the first year after Tommy John.

Daniel Winkler - A personal favorite of mine (but this was when I was all-in on the strategy of acquiring Tommy John guys and stashing them) pitched 4 innings in MLB between ‘15&’16 before breaking his elbow AFTER he’d already rehabbed from Tommy John. He's a rule-5er so he has to stay on the 25-man roster unless he’s on the DL. Currently, he’s still at extended Spring Training strengthening.

A.J. Minter - Would’ve been drafted early in 1st round had it not been for blowing out his elbow pre-draft. He’s had some flare-ups in the elbow area and other ailments that are apparently non-elbow related. Still, he’s only pitched 1 inning this year and remains out with no timetable set on his return.

Jacob Lindgren - Pitched with the Yankees, blew out his elbow, then they tried to sneak him through waivers. He was picked up by the Braves and will miss the entire 2017 season. He, like Minter, are key “can’t waiters” in the organization.

Has this strategy paid off for the Braves Front-office?

What is the expectation? In essence, I guess one can say that most of these guys were/are lottery tickets and anything gained is just gravy (examples: La Stella/Vizzy+INT slot money, Winkler in the Rule 5), but some cost real players (Fried/Man-Ban/Paco), roster spots (Winkler/McK), and high-draft choices (Minter). Thus far,  Man-Ban DFA’d, Paco released, Outman out, McK cheated then re-broke himself then was released, and Winkler rehabbed then broke elbow again.

The only success story that has played out in the bigs has been Vizzy and he’s not been a guy that a manager can give the ball to 70 times a year. Hopefully, this changes this year and we can reflect on the Tommy John Survivor strategy as a positive one.

Obviously, we have yet to see Minter, Lindgren, Fried, and Biddle, and there’s still a chance that Winkler can come back and be a force out of the bullpen, but we as fans need to be cautious when our expectation of these guys is that they’ll be healthy AND dominant.  It’s just not that simple.

A Piece of Advice for Myself

Pitching health in today’s game is so fickle. Pitching health after suffering a major injury, undergoing major surgery, and grinding through an extensive rehab is a crapshoot.  When it comes to these guys, we as fans might benefit by looking at them as luxuries rather than unequivocal future pieces. Be excited about these guys, watch them grow as pitchers, root for them to stay healthy, but learn from my mistakes and refrain from putting them in the category of “Can’t Wait” guys. Rather, leave them in a separate chamber of your heart that is more accustomed to heartbreak.

Thanks for reading! Go Braves!

Saturday Stats Pack - Freeman, Krol, Ender, Bonifacio

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

203 wRC+

I can probably make an entire article out of the absolutely insane numbers Freddie Freeman is posting, but for today, let's focus on his Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+. This is one of my favorite offensive stats because it combines total offensive performance, park factor, and league factors all in one easy to compare statistic. Freeman is currently one of six players over the 200 wRC+ mark - that is to say, they are 100%+ better than the league average. Since 1960, we have only seen seven 200 wRC+ or better seasons. Barry Bonds did it four consecutive years from '01-'04 while Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas each did it in the strike-shortened 1994. Mark McGwire's 70-homer campaign in 1998 is the only other example of this elite form of accomplishment. No Brave has ever done it. In fact, the closest a Brave ever came was Rogers Hornsby's one season with the Braves back in 1928 (196 wRC+). Hank Aaron holds the top Atlanta-mark with a 191 in 1971. Can Freeman keep up the pace? History is not on his side, but if he was able to do so, it would be a historic season for the Braves.

Going-Going-Gone

Ian Krol was an excellent performer for the Braves last season with a 2.91/2.97/2.81 FIP/xFIP/SIERA triple slash. There was plenty of reason to believe he would continue to help anchor a bullpen that supposedly was improved. Instead, he is one of the primary reasons for the pen's struggles. His groundball rate is down nearly 16%. This has led to more flyballs and with his hard-hit rate up nearly 10%, more of those flyballs are traveling a long way. He surrendered four homers last season. This year? Four in 37.1 fewer innings. To put that in another way, 23.5% of his flyballs have turned into goners. That's highly unlikely to continue and if it did, it's impossible to believe he would reach the 50-inning plateau. But if that rate continued over 50 innings, his 23.5% HR/FB rate would rank as tied for the tenth worst since the stat was introduced in 2002. Some of the names ahead of him - Todd Coffey, Yohan Flande, Roman Colon, Sergio Mitre, and Jonny Venters. Yep, Venters had a 24% HR/FB rate in 2012, which is also the last time we saw him in the majors.

Now the Unquestioned Best?

You are forgiven if you think Kevin Kiermaier is the best defensive center fielder in baseball, but so far this season, there is little reason to doubt that Ender Inciarte has been on top of the heap. The converted infielder Odubel Herrera is currently the only one who is a worthy challenger to the throne. On the year, Inciarte has a 6.7 UZR. His ARM rating is second to Billy Hamilton. No player has made more out-of-the-zone plays and he's playing even better than he did last year when he won a Gold Glove. Not sure if anyone has ever said this before - let alone put it in song-form - but for right now, Ender Inciarte is simply the best. He truly is better than the rest.

5.7 IP/GS

It's a strange dynamic the Braves have. They rank just outside the top ten in innings-per-start from their rotation and are tied for tenth is quality start percentage. Despite that, no team has given up more runs per game from their starting rotation than the Braves. No team has a worse average game score than the Braves. Here's something that's also funny - no team has bequeathed fewer runners than the Braves. Brian Snitker's managing style to this point has been to let his starters try to work through whatever troubles they have and complete innings. Some of that has to be due to a troublesome bullpen, but there's also a trust-factor related to the veteran staff.

Boni's Value

I know I have been critical of Emilio Bonifacio's continued usage of a roster spot, but he is on at least one leaderboard. Only Martin Maldonado has attempted more sacrifice bunts and nobody has put more bunts down successfully than Bonifacio. He's 4-for-5 and part of the reason the Braves have attempted the second-most sacrifice bunts in baseball. Not sure if we should celebrate that - especially since they are about average at putting them down - but it's something. I guess.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack

Gwinnett - 25% 

With him back in Gwinnett after a short time in Atlanta, let's look at one of the stranger stats in the system. In 66 PA, Lane Adams has a 25% ground-ball rate. To put that into perspective, much has been made about Yonder Alonso's re-worked swing to get more elevation on the ball. It's working wonders for him and his groundball rate went from 44% to 24.7% overnight. Adams has always been in the low 40's in groundball rate so it's worth a look to see if this continues.

Mississippi - 20% or better

Imagine being a Southern League hitter facing the Mississippi Braves. You know they will bring their vaunted rotation with them, but just how tough have they been on hitters? Each of their starters has carried a 20% or better strikeout rate this season. Kolby Allard has a 20.4% rate, Max Fried checks in at 23.3%, Matt Withrow is next with a 23.4%, Mike Soroka is at 23.9%, and Patrick Weigel is a shade under a quarter of all batters as he K'd 24.8%. Weigel has since been promoted, but don't rejoice Southern League hitters. His replacement, Luiz Gohara, was striking out 26.7% of Florida State League batters.

Florida - Breakthrough Power

It's fair to criticize the Braves taking a chance on Alex Jackson. Not only had he been a failure in the Mariners' system, but he had work ethic concerns. I wasn't critical, though. I spoke of minor improvements in his batted ball rates and plate discipline. Truth be told, I was just reaching for reasons to show my optimism was fact-based. So far, I apparently had reason to believe good things were coming. In 33 games, Jackson has bashed ten homers while hitting .309/.363/.604. He's also posted a .431 wOBA according to Fangraphs. Defensively, he still has some issues to work through - as he should since he's played in the outfield since being drafted and is switching back to catcher - but so far, this trade looks like a good one for the Braves.

Rome - ERA Not Telling the Whole Story

With a 4.03 ERA, it's easy to ignore Joey Wentz when compared to Ian Anderson and Bryse Wilson, each with much more impressive marks. However, Wentz betters both in FIP and xFIP (2.26/3.29). This is due to Wentz's polished performance on the mound. He's walked just 5.7% of opposing batters, nearly 4% less than Wilson and close to 9% less than Anderson. While his strikeout rate is well below Anderson's, it's just a tick below Wilson's and like Anderson, he hasn't surrendered a homerun. No matter how you slice it, for the second consecutive season, the Rome Braves have an uber-exciting pitching staff.

The Atlanta Braves Look to 2018, Sign Jacob Lindgren

By Keith Allison from Hanover, MD, USA
(Jacob Lindgren) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I occasionally buy a lottery ticket.

I know it's a racket, but if the jackpot is huge, I'll spend a few bucks and take a chance. One of my friends won't. She believes it's wasted money. However, when the jackpot is $150 million, even she starts saying things like "I really need to win the lottery." I tell her, "you gotta pay to win."

That's an odd segue-way into the meat of this article. The Atlanta Braves have signed recently non-tendered left-hander Jacob Lindgren. the contact is for one year - all of which will be spent on the Disabled List after Lindgren underwent Tommy John surgery last August. That put an end to a season that was sidelined by elbow issues. Atlanta will need to keep Lindgren on their 40-man roster until they can begin to use their disabled list again this spring. Plus side to that is had they signed him to a minor league contract, he could have - and probably would have - been selected by another team in the Rule 5. Lindgren will get a year of major league service, however. Lindgren has less than a year of major league service and has two all three option years remaining. (ed. first draft indicated he had used an option. It is believed, with the help of Braves Options Guy on Twitter, that Lindgren has not used any options.)

A second round pick of the New York Yankees in 2014, Lindgren was a brilliant pitcher for the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Moved to the bullpen full-time in 2014, Lindgren struck out 100 (!) batters in 55.1 innings while allowing just five earned runs. He was wild at times with 18 wild pitches, though with his stuff, I guess you could call him effectively wild.

Like many college relievers taken so high, he was given an accelerated time table in the minors. After he was drafted, he pitched for four teams over 19 games with his final stop coming in Trenton of the Double-A Eastern League. While progressing, Lindgren struck out 48 of the 104 batters he faced. He did walk 13 (one intentional) and uncorked nine wild pitches, but the Yankees were naturally excited about what they had. He was moved up to Triple-A to begin 2016 and by late May, he was already in the majors. His numbers were not as dominating as is first act. In triple-A, he struck out "just" 29 in 22 innings with 10 walks. In the majors, his wildness played up and he gave up the first three homeruns of his career. His season came to a close with, you may have guessed it, elbow troubles after just seven games in the majors.

This season, he was disastrous in spring camp, prompting the Yankees to start him in Advanced A-ball. He pitched seven hitless innings, but walked nine, hit a batter, and uncorked six wild pitches. He hit the DL in late April and four months later, Lindgren finally went under the knife.

Lindgren doesn't possess a blow-you-away heater, but the four-seamer has a lot of sinking movement to it. His out pitch is a slider that has plus-plus grade to it. That pitch alone keeps us from grading Lindgren as a LOOGY and helps explain his absurd strikeout numbers - and why he earned the nickname "The Strikeout Factory." Below is a clip from his debut and pay special attention to the slider he throws.



Similar to Jesse Biddle last year and Daniel Winkler the year before, the Braves are looking two years into the future with Lindgren. If he comes all the way back and can stay healthy, the Braves will have their best left-handed reliever since Jonny Venters. If not, they wasted very little. Exciting signing that may pay big dividends in 2018.

Braves Can McDowell

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0
(http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/4.0)], via Wikimedia Commons

After eleven seasons spanning three managers, Roger McDowell will no longer be the pitching coach of the Atlanta Braves. For a franchise that rarely sees turnover in the coaching staff, the last several months have been a change-of-pace. The in-season firing of Fredi Gonzalez, the very real chance that the interim manager Brian Snitker won't be in charge in 2017, and now McDowell's dismissal might point to one thing - John Coppolella is willing to change up the team a bit more than the last two general managers the Braves had.

McDowell replaced Leo Mazzone in 2006 after the latter left for Baltimore. Three years ago, McDowell nearly left the Braves following the 2013 season, but former general manager Frank Wren gave McDowell a boost in pay along with a long-term contract (for coaches) to keep him away from the Phillies. While with the Braves, McDowell pieced together bullpens with castoffs like Eric O'Flaherty, David Carpenter, and more recently - Jim Johnson, who cited his comfortability with McDowell as one of his reasons to forego free agency and reup with the Braves.

One criticism related to McDowell was a similar one lobbed at Mazzone - he didn't relate well with young starters and they rarely seemed to blossomed under his tutelage. Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson both saw their careers slide into mediocrity after All-Star worthy beginnings. Others like Kyle Davies and Jo-Jo Reyes never developed. Another criticism of McDowell was found in the belief that his pitchers too often went under the knife, a stark change from the Mazzone years. When on the mound, righties Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy - along with southpaw Mike Minor - could be excellent. However, they were frequently on an operating table rather than throwing strikes.

Both criticisms are a bit lacking in my mind. Young pitchers flame out all the time. I'm sure McDowell did struggle to reach certain prospects, but on the other hand, he got his fair share out of Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and some of the aforementioned oft-injured pitchers. Furthermore, considering the rate of pitcher injuries - especially those that result in Tommy John surgery - is skyrocketing, can we really look at McDowell and blame him for that?

McDowell won't be without a job for too long. He's had too much success with the Braves, including a 2007 year where he pieced together a pitching staff that included Chuck James, Buddy Carlyle , Oscar Villarreal, Tyler Yates, Chad Paronto, and the previously mentioned Davies and Reyes and the Braves still finished third in the league in ERA. It was the first-of-seven years in which the Braves finished in the Top 5 in the National League in ERA, including a 3.18 ERA in 2013 to pace the league.

This dismissal means two things. One, the Braves do want a new voice to lead a very young pitching staff. Johnson is the only pitcher on the Braves roster who is definitely going to be on next year's team and is over the age of 30. Sixteen different pitchers took the ball for the Braves this year who were in their Age-25 year or younger. Pitchers like Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims are a good spring camp away from entering the picture. Whether McDowell did have issues with reaching younger pitchers or not, the Braves definitely want the guy in charge of their young pitchers to have an exemplary record with young guns.

The other thing this firing immediately makes you think of - the Braves might be moving away from Brian Snitker as next year's manager and will be giving the next Braves manager a chance to build his own staff. That could be Bud Black, though I am not very excited by that idea. There is a good chance McDowell is just the tip of the ice berg and long-running coaches like Eddie Perez and Terry Pendleton will also be headed out.

I don't necessarily disagree with letting McDowell go. I think he was very good at his job and the fact that this 2016 team wasn't at the bottom of the league in ERA despite starting 16 different pitchers is impressive (four NL teams finished with an ERA worse than the Braves). Still, I am a firm believer in giving a manager the leeway to bring his guys in and build the coaching staff how he sees fit. Letting him go now simply allows McDowell even more time to secure employment for 2017 - which is actually a pretty good parting gift when you think about it.

Fare thee well, Second Spitter. May you land with an American League team and enjoy your time there.

Braves Shift Tyrell to the Pen

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

The Braves knew they had a fun arm in Jonny Venters as he climbed up the ladder before the 2010 season, but the results were simply not there. He gave up too many hits, struck out too few batters, and generally looked like a non-prospect. However, the scouts were sure there was more to Venters than the results. In 2010, he was brought to the majors, moved to the pen, and over the next three years, he had a 2.23 ERA in 230 ballgames.

Could the Braves be thinking something similar with Tyrell Jenkins? It's possible as the Braves move the righty to the bullpen moving forward.

No one has ever doubted Jenkins' athleticism, nor why so many saw potential in his right arm. However, what hasn't added up is the results matching the excitement. Over seven minor league seasons, Jenkins has a 3.77 ERA, a 6.6 K/9, and a 1.9 K/BB rate. The Braves have been able to keep him healthy over the last two years and while his ERA has been solid (3.12 ERA), his metrics have showed little improvement. He too often pitches behind batters, which doesn't help him entice batters to swing at his breaking stuff. This season, he's had just one outing where he has struck out at least six batters. Interestingly, it might have been that outing that influenced the Braves to try him out as a reliever.

In 2016, Jenkins has looked to clean up parts of his game to help him pitch downhill more consistently. The results have been hit-or-miss, but feel for his curveball has been much improved since joining the Braves. That gives him a fastball/curveball mix that could be lethal when Jenkins is not holding back to throw six innings and show hitters something different the second time around. During his May 24th outing where he struck out nine, he used his curveball extremely well and was able to locate his fastball consistently. That fastball has mid-90's velocity when he's letting it fly and can induce a number of grounders.

Jenkins has been a pitch-to-contact guy in the minors, but it seems like he should be so much more. That's why a move to the pen could be what the doctor ordered. Not every starting prospect should be a starter in the majors. Venters would have been a non-factor as a major league starter. Jenkins still may develop into a guy capable of holding down a rotation spot, but the Braves are on the clock. This is Jenkins' second option season. He'll have one more left and what people may forget is that Jenkins does not rank nearly as highly as other Braves' pitching prospects. When he was acquired, sure, he was pretty close to the top pitching prospect the Braves had. There was Lucas Sims and...well, Jenkins. But since then, the Braves have acquired Mike Foltynewicz. And Touki Toussaint. And Max Fried. And...(deep breath)...Matt Wisler, Sean Newcomb, Aaron Blair, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, and maybe Riley Pint or Jason Groome.*

* - Check with me next week.

Jenkins is no longer a top pitching prospect in a system rich with pitching. It was fine to see if his trade value as a starter would climb to attract enough attention from outside the organization, but if the Braves are being real about moving forward beyond seeking out more and more prospects, finding a role for Jenkins right now is important. Jenkins could be a fun arm out of the bullpen and considering Atlanta's current collection of AAAA-types and over-the-hill veterans (save Arodys Vizcaino), adding an arm capable of developing into a high-leverage reliever is important as Atlanta tries to show improvement in 2017.

Jenkins could - and should - arrive before then. How quickly will depend on the results he shows coming out of the bullpen. It's easy to like or even love Jenkins, who plays Madden online with Braves fans and has a great social media presence. With any luck, we will also love what he's doing coming out of the Braves' bullpen.

By the way, as @DrewExistsBrave once pointed out, "If Tyrell Jenkins doesn’t run screaming, “TYRELL JENKINS!” out of the bullpen & throw 95mph fastballs into the stands then what’s the point?"

Eric O'Flaherty: Not the Same Guy We Remember

For a run-down on the previous week, including this pick-up, the Tyler Moore trade, Justin Upton news, Mike Foltynewicz, and more, read my column from today at atlantabraves.about.com.

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Many people applauded the Braves re-acquiring lefty Eric O'Flaherty on Sunday, but is there much to praise beyond just having a familiar face around? Can O'Flaherty resemble the pitcher who was so good for the Braves from 2009 until injury ended his 2013 season prematurely or are the Braves wasting their time on a flier who has lost the skillset that made him valuable?

When O'Flaherty came to the Braves via a waiver claim after the 2008 season, he was a fastball/slider pitcher who mixed in the occasional curve or changeup. Atlanta quickly cut into his fastball usage by getting him to utilize a sinker and by 2011, it was his most-used pitch. He liked it so much  that he began throwing it so often that he used it half of the time or more by 2012. And it was a quality pitch.

He still threw his slider at a similar rate to his M's days (25-27%) and simply stopped throwing his four-seam fastball as much. He also scrapped the curveball and nearly did the same with the changeup, leaving him almost entirely as a three-pitch pitcher, but a sinkerballer for the most part.

The tangible results were excellent. His groundball rate climbed north of 55% with a spike of 66% in 2012. While not a strikeout pitcher, he was getting into the 7 per nine range. Sabermetrics were often not thoroughly impressed with him because his K and BB metrics were never golden, but considering he was maintaining his success despite good (but not great) FIPs, it became a situation where we took into account the pitcher O'Flaherty was rather than who he compared to.

His injury in 2013 led to Tommy John surgery and a trip to free agency, where he signed with the Oakland A's. Has he been a different pitcher? Oh, yeah.

Ignore the high ERA for a second. He's lost a tick in velocity (from about 92-93 mph to 91-92 mph) on his fourseamer and his slider has lost about 2 mph. Not significant losses. The lost downward movement on his fourseamer and sinker is concerning, though. His slider has also began to come in on a plain and stay there rather than drop 1.5-2 inches. I'm not seeing a significant change in release point so it might be downgraded stuff and/or feel. O'Flaherty has never really relied on stuff - especially against lefthanded batters. His biggest weapon was deception. He hid the ball well against lefties which gave the impression that the ball was jumping out of his hand. As he progressed, his sinker helped neutralize right-handed batters to allow O'Flaherty to shake the LOOGY label. With its effectiveness limited, O'Flaherty is again vulnerable to right-handed batters. Here is a graph showing vertical movement. His changeup has dropped off the map, which isn't advantageous because hitters generally will allow it to float out of the zone because of decreased velocity.

Diving in deeper - starting in 2012, O'Flaherty was getting the ball in the zone with increased infrequency. During his first three years with the Braves, he kept the ball in the zone about 50% of the time according to PITCHf/x. Even though he had a great season in 2012 (3.27 FIP, 3.31 xFIP), his Zone% fell to about 42%. This also coincided with increased usage of his sinker and the two go hand-in-hand. He also had the movement to get outside-the-zone swings and hitters were swinging at what could be considered balls 35% of the time. Subsequently, they were making a bit less contact. If you are going to live outside-the-zone, you must entice batters to swing at those pitches. O'Flaherty was able to do that in 2012, but not so much in 2014 and especially last year. Further, because his sinkers and sliders were losing downward movement, they often became fodder for hitters to pummel in-the-zone. Last year, he saw the highest amount of in-the-zone pitches swung at of his career. Unsurprisingly, he also saw the greatest amount of in-the-zone contact. Hitters simply were not missing.

They also weren't hitting dinky pop-ups. Last year, O'Flaherty gave up a 22.6% line drive rate. That's 4% over his career rate and the highest of any full season of his career. In the above graph, flyball rates are blue, ground-ball rates are green, and line-drive rates are red. Line-drives are bad for pitchers because nearly 70% of them become hits. Increased line-drives means more baserunners. More baserunners means worse pitching. Worse pitching means we lose. In the following graph, pay special attention at how many line drives O'Flaherty saw off his most-used pitches.

Chances are that O'Flaherty won't be dinged with a .388 BABIP again (his career norm is .292) and there is reason to suspect he should be better against left-handed batters than he was in 2015 (.274/.358/.319). Plus, as I wrote before, I like Alex Torres, but not in the LOOGY role that he likely would have performed as if he was the sole lefty in the pen. Of course, Torres might not even make the roster, but if you are going to have a guy like Torres, you need a lefty specialist and O'Flaherty might be that guy. (ed. Torres was reassigned shortly after this post) But it's important to realize that the O'Flaherty that worked so well with Craig Kimbrel and Jonny Venters is probably not the guy the Braves acquired on Easter. There is nothing to suggest that the O'Flaherty who had a sub-1.00 ERA will be rejoining the Braves.

Is this move more nostalgia or really filling a need? Probably the former, but Roger McDowell has done more with less before.

Random Former Prospect Sunday - Matt Harrison

During the season, Sundays are set aside to take a look at a prospect at random, but with the minor league season over, I wasn't sure what to do for my Sunday article until this nugget of an idea came my way. How about we look at players who ranked in Baseball America's Top 100 while part of the Braves' organization, yet never appeared for the Braves? Over the next few months, I'll take a look at the prospects that were traded or simply faded away and just to keep up with my theme, I randomized the players.

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Not only have we reached the end of this series, it concludes perfectly with one of the four uber-prospects the Texas Rangers acquired in exchange for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay. You have to wonder if Mahay ever gets upset that nobody mentions that the Braves got him as well. It's always the Teix deal, not the Teix/Mahay deal. Poor guy.

The 2003 draft was eventful for the Braves. They didn't pick until 35th overall and selected Luis Atilano and Jarrod Saltalamacchia back-to-back. They also selected Jo-Jo Reyes, Jamie Romak, Brandon Jones, and in the 30th round, they grabbed Jonny Venters out of Lake Brantley High School (Florida). Venters has had the second best bWAR from that draft for the Braves. The top bWAR came from the guy the Braves picked 900 picks earlier - Harrison. He was Atlanta's sixth pick in the Top 100.

Before Atlanta selected him, Harrison was a lefty out of South Granville High School (go Vikings!). The school had only produced one major leaguer - the generically named Jeff Johnson, who pitched parts of three seasons with the Yankees with a 6.52 ERA. Harrison had a scholarship offer to attend North Carolina State, but gave it up to ink a contract with the Atlanta Braves. Just 17 years-old, Harrison headed to the Gulf Coast League for his first taste of professional ball. He showed a solid ability to throw strikes, which is sometimes difficult for teenage pitchers, and after two years at rookie ball, Harrison headed to Rome to begin 2005. It was a nice season from the tall lefty as he finished with a 3.23 ERA over 167 innings. He maintained a 3.9 K/BB rate and while the homerun rate wasn't excellent, it was still a solid year.

It did not, however, get him in the Top 100 prospects. The next season would change that. Splitting the season between Myrtle Beach and Mississippi, Harrison finished with a 3.35 ERA and pretty similar rates overall. While certainly not an ace, he was a productive prospect with a chance to contribute as a left-handed starter - something that often comes with a high degree of value. Baseball America ranked him as the #90th best prospect in baseball while Baseball Prospectus was even higher on him, placing him #79th.

2007 looked like it might be the year for Harrison, who had already logged a dozen starts in Double-A. However, something was a little off. His K/BB rate, which had never been under 3.45, was sitting at 2.29 by late July. He had always given up his share of hits, but Harrison's calling card was his ability to not hurt himself with walks. Now, compared to many of his peers, a 2.6 BB/9 is hardly a bad thing, but it was a half-a-walk higher than any other season. What the Braves, and the league, didn't know is that Harrison was hurt. Shortly before the end of July, he was placed on the disabled list.

That threw a wrench into a negotiation currently under way. John Schuerholz was desperate to avoid a second consecutive year out of the playoffs after 14 straight division titles. Despite clear issues in the rotation, Schuerholz zeroed in on the possibility of out-slugging everyone with the young and powerful Teixeira. The Rangers saw a chance to maximize Teix's value before he hit free agency after the 2008 season. They wanted Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus, and Neftali Feliz - a dynamic package with three Top 100 talents. They also wanted Harrison, but his injury concerned them. To smooth things over, the Braves added lefty Beau Jones, who they had taken with the 41st pick of the 2005 draft. Jones was an interesting arm, but the Braves saw him as a bullpen prospect so they weren't very attached. The Rangers agreed to the five-prospect package and Harrison headed to Texas. He would be shut down for the remainder of the minor league season, but did made seven starts in the Arizona Fall League.

It didn't take long for Harrison to get to the majors after that. He made 15 starts with the Rangers in the summer of '08, but it wasn't until 2011 that he established himself. He made a full 30 start season for the Rangers, brought his walks down, and did a better job at keeping the ball in the yard. The results was a 185.2 ING campaign in which he had a 3.39 ERA and 3.52 FIP. He even made a start in Turner Field on June 18. He was in line for the win until Darren Oliver blew it. Texas scored off Scott Proctor in the ninth because using Scott Proctor in a tied extra inning game only works when Jerry Meals is behind the plate. Felix came in and got the save with K's of Jordan Schafer and Jason Heyward.

Harrison was even better the next year. He lowered his ERA to 3.29, picked up his first 200-inning season, was an All-Star, and even picked up a Cy Young vote or two. Knowing they had a potential workhorse on their hands, the Rangers gave Harrison a $55M extension to buy out his final two years of arbitration and first three years of free agency. He would be team-controlled through at least his Age-31 season with an option for 2018.

But...that didn't work out so well. In the three years that have transpired since signing the extension, Harrison has made just 9 starts. His back injuries led him to eventually succumb to lumbar spinal disc fusion surgery in June of 2014. He - well, his contract - was also traded to the Phillies last July in the big Cole Hamels trade.

As 2016 is just around the corner, things have not change for Harrison. His back remains an issue and the Phillies don't expect him to contribute "anytime soon, if at all." It's unfortunate news for the lefty has been stuck in a bystander role just after reaching the heights of his career. Will he ever throw another meaningful pitch? That remains to be seen. You have to hope he does because never pitching again because of a back injury is a tough way to go out. Still, it's not looking good for the first pitcher of the Teix trade to get to the majors.

And that concludes the Former Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects as a Brave who Never Actually Played in Atlanta. Oh, that explains why I shortened the title. To go back through the list, you can either click any of the links below or just click here to run through them in reverse chronological order.

Previous Random Former Prospects...
Brett Evert
Rob Bell
Jose Peraza
Tom Redington
Dennis Burlingame
J.R. Graham
Elvis Andrus
Bobby Smith
Bubba Nelson
Neftali Feliz
Gorkys Hernandez
Matt Belisle
Matt McClendon

TOT: Braves Add Lowe and Kawakami. Braves Fans shudder.

Transactions of Today...January 13, 2009 - The Atlanta Braves signed Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami as free agents.

Oh, this day. If any one day led to Frank Wren's firing, it was this one - even if it took years to happen.

Dilip Vishwanat | Getty Images

First, let's go with a history refresher. The Atlanta Braves lose 90 games with Bobby Cox at the helm in 2008. It was Wren's first season after taking over from John Schuerholz. He inherited a roster with promise in the field, but weaknesses on the mound. Jair Jurrjens, who just 22 years old, led the team in starts and innings pitched after Tim Hudson went down with injury. The rest of the staff? Jorge Campillo, Jo-Jo Reyes, Mike Hampton, and a not-ready-for-primetime Charlie Morton. The Braves finished with a 4.46 ERA - the third consecutive year the team had an ERA over 4 (hadn't happened since the 70's). There was little hope on the farm outside of Tommy Hanson. The Braves needed pitching and they needed it bad.

But that wasn't the only reason Wren went kind of crazy on the free agent market. After adding Javier Vazquez to the rotation, the Braves were hopeful that would be the start of a big and booming offseason. However, they struck out on acquiring Jake Peavy, who would ultimately be kept and traded at the 2009 deadline by the Padres. They also struck out on Rafael Furcal, who was all but certain to return to Atlanta. They were trying to hammer out a deal for Ken Griffey Jr., who had reached out to them, but were getting nowhere and Junior would ultimately sign with the Mariners. Wren, who was far more gifted at trading for players than signing them, felt the pressure to return Atlanta to prominence with an improved rotation. He targeted Lowe and went for broke on Kawakami.

In his defense, Lowe was coming off a 3.26 FIP in his final year with the Dodgers that included a sweet 3.27 K/BB ratio. The only problem was that he was entering his upper 30's. Kawakami had a spent a decade honing his craft with Chunichi in the Central League from Japan's Nippon Profressional League. He did have some good seasons - especially in 2006, but was also also 33 years-old.

One other thing to remember was the defection of John Smoltz. Many thought he would retire as a Brave, but Wren was not anxious to resign him for 2009. Smoltz had thrown just 28 innings in 2008, ending a streak of three consecutive 200+ inning seasons since his return to the rotation. Just months before his 42nd birthday, Atlanta waffled on a competitive offer for Smoltz. Wren seemed to access the "I want to save face, but I don't want to sign you" philosophy John Schuerholz used on Tom Glavine. Smoltz would sign with the Red Sox one day before the deals for Lowe and Kawakami were made official.

Another thing to remember was how in demand Lowe was, especially by the New York Mets. The sticking point boiled down to a fourth year. The Mets were willing to include it as an option, but they would not guarantee it. The Braves paniked and gave it to Lowe on the condition he quickly sign. He jumped at it.

All told, the Braves agreed to a $60M contract with Lowe and a 3-year, $23M contract with Kawakami. Lowe started strong, but was prone to complete crapfests (6 R or more in 5 starts). As the season progressed, his ERA ballooned to 4.67. Durable as usual, he was basically a worse Russ Ortiz in 2009. Kawakami was...okay. 4.21 FIP, 1.34 WHIP, 156.1 ING. He could have been worse. We'd find out how worse.

Lowe was better in in 2010. People have a misconception about Lowe's time with Atlanta. it wasn't great, but his 3.89 FIP in Atlanta was just 0.12 worse than his time with the Dodgers. It was just that when he was bad, he got really bad. When he was good, it never seemed like $60M good enough. One problem for Lowe was his sinker was losing sink and his control - so pinpoint with the Dodgers - was only very good rather than excellent. For a pitcher reliant on a limited skillset not eroding, age was getting to him. Still, Lowe finished strong in 2010 and even started two postseason games. He pitched well, but not good enough as the Braves depleted roster just lacked the firepower to beat the Giants.

No matter what we might say about Lowe, he was still better than Kawakami. In 2010, things just got ugly for the Japanese import. Win-loss record should be killed, but you have to suck to get to 1-10 usually. The Braves jettisoned Kawakami to the minors in July. He would make two appearances in September and finished the year with a 5.15 ERA in less than 90 innings. In 2011, injured and ineffective, Kawakami never pitched above AA ball. Mississippi fans wished he hadn't been there all the same.

Lowe's 2011 was bad - though again his other peripherals weren't terrible. He was declining at a steady rate and at a rate that wasn't hard to imagine considering his age. After 2011's 5.05 ERA, the Braves paid $10M or the remaining $15M just to trade him to the Indians.

In the end, Wren's free agent decisions in the winter of 2008-09 overshadowed pickups like Vazquez and Eric O'Flaherty, also acquired that winter. The 2009 Braves finished short of the playoffs, while the 2010 team - infused with Jason Heyward, Jonny Venters, and Kris Medlen - were good enough to go to the playoffs. 2011 would see the Braves collapse down the stretch and miss the playoffs completely. Lowe lost his last five starts, including 7-1 in the season's penultimate game against the Phillies. He gave up five runs in four innings that night. His last pitch was on a single by Jimmy Rollins to open the 5th. A batter later, Hunter Pence homered off Arodys Vizcaino to put the Braves down 6-0.

Lowe would be out of baseball by the end of 2013 and Kawakami returned to Japan in 2012, pitching three more brief years for Chunichi. Expected to be a strong middle-of-the-rotation arm for three years, he finished with just 243.2 ING in the majors.

As for Wren, the signings of Lowe and Kawakami, along with Melvin Upton Jr. and the extension for Dan Uggla would lead to his dismissal near the end of the 2014 season. The 2008-09 offseason, especially, was particularly damning. The near signing of Furcal, not being able to add Peavy, settling for Garret Anderson after Griffey went back to Seattle, Smoltz leaving...all of these things were PR nightmares, but their lasting effects were minimal. Nobody could say the same about Lowe and Kawakami.

Braves Add Alex Torres

Is it fair to Alex Torres that all we know about him is that he wears a big hat/helmet? Is it fair to Alex Torres that his nickname, according to Baseball-Reference, is Dark Helmet? Is it fair to...holy crap, it's a koozie for his hat!

Tom Szczerbowski | Getty Images Sport

By now, you probably have heard that the Braves have added Torres on a minor league deal with an invite to spring training. Torres signed out of Venezuela in 2005 and made his debut the following year in the Angels organization. He remained a starting option for the Angels and was part of the package used by the team to acquire Scott Kazmir near the end of 2009. Torres would make his debut with the Rays in 2011 with a quartet of games out of the pen, though he was used for long stints rather than specialist outings since he continued to be a starting option.

After a 2012 spent entirely in the minors, Torres would finally get to the majors for good in 2013. He was a trusty reliever for Joe Madden that season and pitched 58 innings in 39 games with 62 K's and 19 unintentional walks. Torres was also lights out in the playoffs. Though he would not pitch in June 13th's game against the Royals, the game had a monumental impact on Torres after watching teammate and friend Alex Cobb get nailed in the face by a batted ball. This would inspire his willingness to experiment with hat options that attempted to give pitchers safer alternatives than a simple hat while pitching on the mound.

Despite his solid work in 2013, Torres was sent to the Padres a month before spring training in 2014 in a package that sent Brad Boxberger to the Rays. In 70 games with the Padres, Torres was moved to the specialist role. His K numbers were pretty good, but he walked a lot of batters (32 unintentional passes in 54 innings). The following spring, he was once again on the move as the Mets picked him up. He spent some time in AAA and though he had a 3.19 ERA in the major, Torres again walked too many batters. He was DFA'd after the Mets acquired Eric O'Flaherty and Torres would not appear again for the Mets before becoming a minor league free agent after the season.

So, what did the Braves actually acquire here? Torres is a rare reliever in that he throws five pitches, though you'll see a steady diet of his fourseam fastball and changeup over his sinker, slider, and rarely used curveball. The velocity was down a half-tick in 2015 and it looked like he tried to take a lot off his slider (3 mph difference), which only flattened it out. Looking at his release point, he dropped down a lot there.

With increasing walks, we can look at his Zone% and there is a significant drop since his Rays' days (46% to 40%). That will be the first thing for Roger McDowell and company to work on. His release points on nearly all of his pitches have trended down, telling me that he's dropping his arm angle. It's given him more downward movement on his changeup and subsequently, his changeup remains his best pitch.

Clearly, Torres won't stick around long if he doesn't improve his numbers against lefties. He's actually been better historically against righthanders (.178/.285/.281), but when he was a trusty arm for the Rays, he was also stellar against lefties (.173/.241/.225).

Ultimately, the Braves need to understand that Torres is not a typical LOOGY. Pigeonholing him into that title may be part of the problem he has dealt with since he was traded from the Rays. When he was at his best, he was a full-inning reliever. In 2013, of his 39 games, 22 included at least four outs (compared to five that had less than three). In the 109 games since, he has only had 18 instances where he has picked up at least four outs. Fredi Gonzalez isn't keen on using lefties that way unless Bobby Cox did it first (yes, you Jonny Venters). It might be the best route with Torres, though.

Considering the price tag, Atlanta gave up nothing. They did gain a player with three years of team control who, I believe, has an option left. They also add a project who, if used properly and helped to fix arm angle concerns, could be a useful part of the bullpen. Basically, your standard smart signing with nice upside.