-->
Showing posts with label JosephOdom. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JosephOdom. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Organizational Overview: Catcher

WhatProsWear
Yesterday, we began a series looking at the best prospects by position starting with catcher, but I'd be remiss if we didn't also look at where the Braves stand at catcher right now. After all, just because a position is a strength in the minors doesn't need help right now. Conversely, a position like first base looks pretty weak in the minors, but the Braves aren't that interested in addressing that because of who they have in the majors.

This series of articles will look at both the recent past - especially 2017 - and the foreseeable future. It will take into account the current major league roster, the current depth in the minors, and the future of the position. Think of this series as a way to look at the strengths and weaknesses of a roster before attempting to fix problems moving forward. I will use some of the information I already released about the current roster makeup as a reminder.

Signed: Kurt Suzuki ($3.5M)
Arbitration: None
Renewal: David Freitas and Tony Sanchez
Option: Tyler Flowers ($4M, $300K buyout)
Current Projection: $7.5M

On a roster in flux, there is some degree of stability behind the plate. Tyler Flowers will almost certainly be brought back for 2018 and once again will be paired with Kurt Suzuki. We will get to the details on how effective this duo was in 2017, but it's very important to remember that the price per value here is exceptionally high. The Braves are essentially paying the price for a medium-grade starter for two catchers who are capable of being starters in the majors. However, both are probably better for the time share they played under last season. Catchers are naturally prone to breaking down as the season progresses, but the Braves avoided that by having their duo share the load.

The other 40-man options right now are unlikely to be in the mix by opening day. Freitas is Triple-A filler while Sanchez, more known for his defense, didn't even catch an inning after being acquired at the waiver-trade deadline.

Comparison - The Majors

The duo of Flowers and Suzuki lack the name recognition and neither will be All-Stars in 2018, but for one year, they gave the Braves the best production from behind the plate in the league. Only four teams received at least 4 WAR from their catchers in 2017 and only the Braves pushed over the 5 WAR cliff - finishing with 5.1 fWAR to be exact. They were tied for fourth in homers, third in ISO, first in wOBA, and first in wRC+. Defensively, they were slightly below-average - largely because Flowers gives up defensive value for framing - something he's the best at in baseball.

Because the Braves can keep both Flowers and Suzuki moving forward, the position looks to have zero upheaval heading into 2018. It might be a pipe dream to expect the Braves to get another 5-win season from their catchers - it was shocking that it happened once - but both Flowers and Suzuki credit Kevin Seitzer for their improvements at the plate and the Braves certainly could bring back Seitzer for another season. That would keep a good team together for another year, though the Braves are rumored to look at some considerable alterations to their coaching staff despite bringing back Brian Snitker.

Regardless, the Braves should rank among the top 10 or so teams heading into 2018 behind the plate even if individually, both of their catchers are ranked much lower. The Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Marlins, and possibly the Mariners should all rank ahead of them on the strength of their number one catcher. The Orioles and Tigers, a combined 7.2 fWAR between them, will be tasked with rebuilding their catching situation. Welington Castillo could return to the Orioles, but after a big year, he'll likely seek out a long-term deal rather than come back on a player's option while the Tigers already dealt Alex Avila last season.

Obviously, there are a lot of dominoes that will fall this offseason, but the fact the Braves have two respectable catchers who put up the kind of numbers that they did in 2017 makes this position a strength heading into 2018 compared to the rest of the league.

Comparison - Immediate Depth

I don't want you to get the wrong idea - this is simply what kind of depth is already projected to be in the minors who could be on the major league roster when the season opens next year. The Braves have a lot of catching prospects - and I'll get back to them - but their best prospects are not likely going to be in the mix next April. However, the Braves do have Kade Scivicque and that isn't the worst thing in the world. Scivicque missed our Top 5, but is probably a Top 50 prospect in this loaded system so don't sleep on him. He doesn't project as much more than a backup in the majors, but is smart and capable behind the plate. He has some gap power and while aggressive at the plate, will make enough solid contact to possibly post a good average if the BABIP allow it.

The Braves could bring back Freitas or Sanchez for more depth and they also have Sal Giardina and Joseph Odom, who both appeared in Gwinnett last year. Neither, however, project as much more than organizational filler and the Braves don't need Freitas or the rarely utilized Sanchez. Beyond them, you have last year's Double-A duo of Jonathan Morales and Alex Jackson. Morales is a lot like Giardina and Odom, but Jackson is a legit prospect if he can stay behind the plate. Actually, with his bat, he's a legit prospect anywhere, but he brings more value as a catcher. Reports were mixed about Jackson, but he did appear to look much more comfortable as the season progressed after moving from the outfield. If he continues to respond to coaching, Jackson could be knocking on the door sometime next summer. Despite not being in the mix when the season opens, Jackson is still slated to open 2018 in Gwinnett if only because that's where the at-bats because there's so much depth behind him. Even if an injury opened a spot in the bigs, I think Scivicque is ahead of Jackson for the time being, but at some point in 2018, that's going to change.

I'd classify the immediate depth as average, but trending up.

Comparison - The Future

The Braves might not have any of their catchers make one of the big Top 100 Prospects list this winter, but the depth here is off-the-charts. I already mentioned Jackson, and he received the most points for our top catching prospect in our recent list. The great thing about the catching depth is that it's spread out pretty well. Here's a brief projection with the Top 5 catching prospects and others that likely will be in the mix.

Gwinnett: Alex Jackson (#1), Kade Scivicque (Honorable mention), Joseph Odom.
Mississippi: Brett Cumberland (#3), Jonathan Morales, Sal Giardina
Florida: Lucas Herbert (#5), Carlos Martinez, Tanner Murphy
Rome: William Contreras (#2), Hagen Owenby
Danville: Abrahan Gutierrez (#4), Alan Crowley, Zack Soria

Not too shabby. The best combinations of offense/defense of the group are likely 2-3 years away in Contreras and Gutierrez, but there's a pair of good offensive talents in Herbert and Cumberland with a lottery ticket in Herbert mixed in whose bat could develop well enough to increase his prospect standing. This list does not include Drew Lugbauer, who was classified as a first basemen due to where he played the most. Still, Lugbauer gives the Braves another possibility even if it's as a part-time catcher/corner infielder coming off the bench.

No matter how you slice it, the future is a major strength for the Braves and likely one of the best catching prospect situations in baseball - if not the best.

The Big Picture

When it comes to the catcher position, there are few teams in a better position than the Braves. Sure, the chances of the Braves having the best production in baseball from their catchers in 2018 is not high, but there's also a strong chance that both Flowers and Suzuki perform well enough to lead the Braves to a solid season from behind the plate. The coming attractions, though, is where the Braves turn the catcher position into something special. It's hard not to think the Braves should be good behind the plate for the next decade.

Friday, August 11, 2017

Braves Catching Turning Into a Strength

In the major leagues, few teams have had a better situation behind the plate than the Braves this season. With Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki, the Braves have a pair of players who have been productive all season long at the plate and in Flowers' case, they have the game's best framer. But both are over 30 and may not around when the Braves next make the playoffs. Today, let's look at the minor league situation and see if the Braves will have replacements.

It wasn't that long ago that the Braves had one catching prospect - Christian Bethancourt. It was easy to look past his flaws because he was really Atlanta's only hope. Similar things happened over the years with Scott Thorman at first base and Kyle Davies at starter. Atlanta didn't have many other options so what options the Braves did have seemed better than they actually were.

While the Braves will still have to wait a few years for their guys to develop, the catcher position is starting to turn from an organizational weakness to one of strength. From trades to the draft to the international market, the Atlanta Braves have acquired a good deal of talented catchers that might usher in the next Javy Lopez or Brian McCann - catchers who were both offensively and, to some degree, defensively able.

Seven catchers made our Top 50 Midseason Prospect list. The seven prospects run the gamut from the strong defender to the strong hitter to the guys who are a bit of both. Moving forward, their development might prompt the Braves to avoid spending richly on a free agent and go with a cheaper, younger, and maybe an even better option. With all that in mind, let's take a look level-by-level.

Gwinnett
Kade Scivicque, #43 in the Midseason Top 50 - Acquired in last summer's Erick Aybar trade with the Tigers, Scivicque had a strong Arizona Fall League showing after the trade, but hasn't been able to continue that success this season. Slashing .261/.314/.345 mostly at Mississippi, Scivicque hasn't really regressed compared to last season, but it's still not close to his AFL numbers. Unfortunately, Scivicque has not graded well defensively this season according to Baseball Prospectus's Advanced Metrics for catchers (-4.6 FRAA). These metrics have their issues, but do help frame the discussion. Scivicque was expected to be a decent little hitter who could improve behind the plate. At this rate, that might be too much to expect. Scivicque made out Top 50 at midseason, but without a strong finish, it could be the final time he holds that distinction. On the plus side, at 24 years-old, he's the youngest catcher to play at Gwinnett with the exception of Bethancourt in at least a part-time role - period. Seriously, since their inaugural season in 2009, the Gwinnett Braves have been a home for the, as Outfield Fly Rule's Brent Blackwell recently put it, Fraternal Order of Replacement Backstops (FORB). These are guys who just travel from one organization to the next getting playing time as a "good handler of young pitchers." Scivicque might not be a great prospect, but he is - at the very least - a prospect.

Mississippi
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Alex Jackson, #11 - The bat is back for Jackson. He hit .272/.333/.502 with Florida while smashing 14 HR. To be fair, his walk and strikeout rates are concerning, but Jackson was drafted for his massive raw power and with already a new career-high in home runs set this year, the Braves are very happy with his development at the plate. Behind it, he's still a work in progress. When he was drafted, Jackson's arm was not the problem and still isn't. He's got a showcase cannon either from behind the plate or in the outfield. The problem was that defensively, his skills were behind the curve. Three years of playing outfield have done little to help with that. I think the Braves will wait until this offseason - at the earliest - before attempting to judge Jackson's defense. If they've seen progression throughout the year, he might continue to wear the tools of ignorance. If not, it might be time to shift him back to the outfield. Regardless, his bat plays no matter where he ultimately lines up.

Joseph Odom - The recent trade of Anthony Recker brought Odom to Gwinnett, but only for a couple of days before he was exchanged with Scivicque. Odom has generally not hit well since he was drafted out of Huntingdon College back in 2013, but he increased his OPS each year to a personal-best .758 last year between Carolina and Mississippi. He doesn't profile as a big prospect, but there is enough pop and plate discipline here that, when combined with solid reports of his defensive capabilities, it makes Odom a potential future member of FORB.

Jonathan Morales - In three years, Morales has gone from interesting prospect to we're-still-hoping to nearly-forgotten-to-the-point-a-blogger-has-to-do-a-last-second-edit-before-publishing-this-article-because-I-forgot-about-him. Got all that? Morales slashed .304/.377/.511 in the Gulf Coast League back in 2015, but his OPS fell a bit over two hundred points with Rome the following year. He wasn't really setting the world on fire in Florida over the first few months this year, but with other higher-rated prospects pushing him, he was moved up the chain. Morales does rank solidly in catching metrics, though he's playing nearly as much first base now. To get back in the Braves' good graces, we're going to need to see some production at the plate soon, though.

Florida
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Brett Cumberland, #26 - Don't look now, but Bcumbo Slice (his twitter handle) is starting to figure it out at Florida. Cumberland got off to a tough start in Rome, going 6-for-45 to begin the year with a .582 OPS. His next 179 PA looked like this - .308/.469/.623 with 9 HR. He was brought up a level last June and again, it was tough sledding early. In his first 59 AB, he had just 10 hits, including one homer. However, he's been on fire since, hitting .377/.482/.478 with seven doubles. It's not a big sample size, but Cumberland's got the skillset to be a big bat. Like Jackson, the question has remained whether he'll remain a catcher with that big bat or be forced to move to another position. Unfortunately, there is a reason to agree with Baseball Prospectus' Steve Givarz when he said of Cumberland, "His glove? Hey he’s a good hitter let’s focus on that!" It's not that he can't stay at catcher, but there's significant doubt whether or not his defense will ultimately take away from his overall value. You don't have to be a superb defender and a good hitter, but the team would like to know that your glove is good enough to not embarrass the team should you stick at the position. Furthermore, there is a reasonable concern that Cumberland's hit-by-pitch numbers are soft. Going back to college, he's always got hit by a healthy number of pitches (38 total this year). However, pitcher's control improves as you climb the minor league ladder. He has just one more unintentional walk this season than he does HBP so it's a big part of his game. What happens if pitchers avoid hitting him?

Tanner Murphy - I was a big fan of Murphy after he hit .242/.361/.389 with Danville in 2014 and earned a lot of praise along the way. However, his numbers have only regressed since. He seemed to turn the corner last season, hitting .297/.411/.337 after the All-Star Break, but he has struggled to duplicate the success since. While his defense remains solid, Murphy is struggling to find at-bats behind higher-rated prospects added to the system since Murphy's selection in 2013. When Bethancourt arrived in the majors, Murphy was the top catching prospect still in the minors. Now, he's not even in the Top 5.

Rome
Lucas Herbert, #36 - The good news is that Herbert's numbers have looked quite a good deal better with Rome than they did in 2016. The bad news is that they still don't look that great. On the year, Kolby Allard's former high school catcher is hitting .258/.317/.390 with 7 HR. A name comes up on his Baseball Prospectus page as a top similarity that might not make Braves' fans happy - Christian Bethancourt in 2012. While no one wants to compare the two, the idea is pretty fair - both had reputations as strong defenders with questionable offensive potential. Now, let's be generous here and remember that Herbert basically lost a season of development after he went down with an injury in his first professional game in the Gulf Coast League in 2015. Let's also recall that at 20 years-old with really one year of experience, one would expect Herbert's 2017 level of production considering his profile coming out of high school. Nevertheless, success has been hard to come by for Herbert to this point. His offensive game is still raw and he could be a sleeper candidate next year if it starts to come together, though

Carlos Martinez - Where did this come from? Martinez hit in the .220's the last two seasons for Danville but has found a way to hit .301 this season. Of course, when your BABIP jumps to .352 when it was never higher than .269, that helps. Martinez also has one of the strangest numbers in the system - an .010 ISO. Of his 31 hits, 30 are singles. That's astounding. It's also reason to believe that Martinez, even at his best, is not a prospect.

Drew Lugbauer, #44 - A recent callup from Danville, Lugbauer has yet to stop hitting. On the year, the former Michigan Wolverine is hitting .272/.374/.551 with nine doubles, a triple, and ten homeruns. All of the four-baggers came with Danville before the promotion to Rome. He's shared an equal amount of time between first base, third base, and catcher and hasn't looked that bad at the corners. His footwork behind the plate is not crisp, though, and he's failed to throw out any of the nine baserunners that have attempted to steal on him. Despite including him in this discussion, it's harder to see him staying behind the plate than either Jackson or Cumberland. He'll have to improve dramatically in that regard to continue to receive regular time as a catcher. The good news is that Lugbauer could present the Braves, if he develops well, with an interesting option that can catch if needed, but also play the corner infield positions. Such a player would have been nice in Atlanta this year with the production the Braves have received from both catchers and the hesitancy to use one or the other in a pinch hitting appearance.

Danville
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
William Contreras, #50 - I gave Contreras a #46 ranking in our Midseason Top 50 and Ryan Cothran ranked him two spots higher. I don't know about Ryan or Stephen Tolbert (who had him unranked), but Contreras is primed to be one of my biggest risers when we reconvene for a postseason update. The brother of the Cubs' Wilson, William OPS'd .783 and .721 over two years spent in the DSL and GCL before this year. Lauded for his defense, the bat was considered more of a question. This season, he's had the best year combining both offense and defense of any of the Braves' minor league catchers. Hitting .336/.426/.496 with 3 HR, Contreras has regularly flashed a bat capable of doing big things despite all but 19 of his 141 PA coming against pitchers older than he is. He also has shown a good command of the strikezone, walking four more times than he has struck out. His defense is very fluid behind the plate and only getting better as he refines his footwork and framing. Of the games I've personally seen this season, no catcher has prompted the umpire to receive more complaints from batters upset about strike calls. That tells me that he's capable at framing. But while all of his tools are solid, his biggest weapon is a cannon of an arm that he's not shy about showing at any time. He keeps his infielders on their toes as he's willing to try to pick off runners. He'll even gun it around the horn after a strikeout. I haven't seen a better defensive catcher this season in the Appalachian League and he's still only 19 years-old.

Hagan Owenby - Drafted more for his bat, Owenby played a good deal of first base and DH before Lugbauer's promotion just to get him into action. He's a leader on the field and does a good job working with his pitchers, but his defense isn't very good right now (he has five of Danville's 11 passed balls to this point). At the plate, he has a nice line-drive stroke that might develop more power as he progresses. His performances at first base were pretty ugly and I feel confident that he'll last at catcher, but I don't have the same amount of confidence that the bat will ever be enough to make up for defensive problems behind the plate.

Alan Crowley - Some people are drafted just to be backup catchers in the minors. Crowley is one of those guys. He did ride a high BABIP to a .327 average over 56 PA with Rome last year, but less balls are dropping this year and his .163 average is a result.

GCL
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Abraham Gutierrez, #33 - While Kevin Maitan received most of the coverage during last year's international signing spree by the Braves, Gutierrez is a pretty impressive prospect as well. He jumped to the states to begin this season with the GCL squad and the 17-year-old has hit a respectable .261/.327/.330. He's also thrown out 39% of baserunners, which is no small feat considering the ability for teenage pitchers to hold runners. Gutierrez's scouting report includes amazing athletism behind the plate, a strong arm, and a quick-and-powerful stroke at the plate. The emergence of Contreras this year as the best full-package catching prospect shouldn't negate Gutierrez, who still might have the best potential of any Braves minor league catching prospect.

Ricardo Rodriguez - Acquired in the Christian Bethancourt trade, Rodriguez has been stuck with the Gulf Coast League Braves due to a weak offensive profile and not enough at-bats for all of the Braves catching prospects. Rodriguez is one of the guys who might get more extended look if the Braves opened some playing time by adding a second rookie team in the GCL or adding a short-season A-ball team for their college-age draftees like Owenby or Crowley. Rodriguez, by the way, has a strong glove and flashed a decent enough bat in the Dominican Summer League two years ago. It's been missing-in-action since coming stateside, though.

The Braves have more catchers, but these are some of the bigger names. What would your Top 5 Braves catching prospects look like? And do you think Jackson, Cumberland, and/or Lugbauer will stay at catcher long-term? Let me know in the comments.

Tuesday, August 1, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: Gohara, Touki, Alex Jackson, Slugbauer

It was an extra-busy week in big-time promotions for the Atlanta Braves organization this week. While the trading deadline was a bit of a letdown in terms of transactions, there's plenty here to cover and much of it is positive.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover July 25 to July 31. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta
Recalled: Lane Adams...Another go around in the bigs for the 27-year-old, who began this season with just three plate appearances in the majors back in 2014. Adams got into Monday's game and picked up a RBI single. It was his seventh pinch-hit of the season in 28 PA, which is two more than Danny Santana for the team-lead and gives Adams nearly a quarter of Atlanta's pinch-hits on the year. Adams isn't a great player by any means but seems suited well for the fourth outfielder role.

Recalled: Jason Hursh (#42)...This callup is likely going to resemble his previous several callups in that it will probably be short. Hursh has done decently with his 8.2 in the majors, but can't seem to get a long enough look to stick. With Lucas Sims joining the team today, Hursh likely will draw the short straw.

Recalled: Micah Johnson...Micah was killing it in Triple-A. Over eleven games, he hit a robust .378/.452/.568 with three doubles, two triples, and five walks. Naturally, the Braves brought him up to let him sit on the bench. He's now 0-for-3 - all pinch-hit appearances - with two strikeouts. While I understand that Johnson's not the biggest prospect by any means, it seems shortsighted to not roll the dice and see if he keeps hitting - especially when right-handers are on the mound.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Disabled: Matt Kemp...On June 2, Matt Kemp went 3-for-5 to improve his batting line to .352/.387/.614. Since then, he's hit .227/.285/.337 while playing woeful defense. There are times that we flash back to the Kemp of old - the former MVP candidate and one of the game's best. Most of the time, though, the Braves have this version of Kemp. A guy who is trying to gut it out through a variety of leg ailments. Right now, it's his hamstring that's forced him to the DL. On the plus side, his balky knees will be given a rest for a change.

Gwinnett
Promoted from Mississippi: Luiz Gohara (#8)...The southpaw from Brazil is making Jerry Dipoto look really dumb for giving up on him after a 1.81 ERA in 2016. Gohara opened the season with seven wonderful starts in Florida before a promotion up the ladder to Mississippi, where he was excellent with a 2.60 ERA and 60 strikeouts in 52 innings. His first start in Triple-A went poorly, but the fact that the Braves have taken a pitcher who Dipoto couldn't get rid of quick enough and now have him on the road to the major leagues is remarkable. Gohara struggled last week against Syracuse, but he'll have a month-plus to turn the corner once again and put his name on the shortlist for a spot on next year's roster.

Promoted from Mississippi: Phil Pfeifer...On one hand, Pfeifer was rolling with Mississippi. 68 strikeouts in 44.1 innings? Yes, please. The problem comes down to the walks - 33 of them. His ability to generate strikeouts helped to mask that, but that's still too many walks. It's worth mentioning that left-handed batters in the Southern League won't miss Pfeifer. They hit just .196 with two doubles against him. Pfeifer was a third rounder in 2015 who came over in last June's Bud Norris/Dian Toscano exchange. The talent is there for the former Vanderbilt Commodore. If the Braves can squeeze out just a bit more control out of him, Pfeifer could be part of a reworked bullpen for the Braves over the next year.

Promoted from Mississippi: Kade Scivicque (#43)...Scivicque hasn't exactly followed up a productive Arizona Fall League run with some impressive offensive numbers this season. At the time of his promotion, he was hitting .269/.319/.363 - basically, what he did in the 170 or so games he played in the minors before this season. Long-term, Scivicque maxes out as a backup whose career will be made or broken by his receiving skills behind the plate. They're not great, by the way, but reports suggest he has improved. More improvement might help him get to the majors.

Rehab: Jason Motte...I feel like Motte is pushing 40, but he only turned 35 a month ago. Motte started his rehab assignment this week with a good inning with Rome before joining with Gwinnett to complete his rehab. While Motte hasn't been bad this year (3.76 ERA), his peripherals stink (5.43 FIP/4.99 xFIP) and at this point, the Braves might be better off moving on from Motte rather than demote a younger arm to bring him back.

Recalled and Optioned from Atlanta: Aaron Blair...The problem with Aaron Blair is the results haven't really matched the expectations for three years now. The belief was that Blair had good stuff, a few plus-plus pitches, and would be a middle-of-the-rotation workhorse. He might be a workhorse, but one you don't want to ride for very long. It's bad enough that he stunk in a 15-start run with the Braves last year. This year, with Gwinnett, he's simply been pretty forgetful with a 4.86 ERA/4.73 FIP/5.02 xFIP. His one start in the majors last week was a train wreck. Blair seems maxed out as a Quad-A starter/major league spot starter. He's just 25, but it's hard to foresee much potential here.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Optioned from Atlanta: Dansby Swanson...We can talk until we're blue in the face about the way the Braves handled this and whether or not Swanson should be in the minors, but once Brian Snitker started to use Johan Camargo as his regular shortstop, it was only appropriate to move Swanson to Gwinnett to get him plenty of playing time. That part, I'm happy about. Over the last few weeks, it appeared the struggles were finally getting to him. I'm not a body language expert, but Swanson looked miserable and seemed on a downward trend. While adversity can be good for young players, an OPS of .599 is a bit much to put on a guy in hopes that it builds character. Swanson heads to Triple-A, where he'll form a star-studded middle of the defense with Ozzie Albies and Ronald Acuna. He'll be back.

Optioned from Atlanta: Matt Wisler...Unfortunately, the Braves are not yet willing to try out the single-inning Wisler version I, and many others, have suggested. Soon after his demotion, he took the ball and had a Wisleresque start against Syracuse. He gave up four runs, walked a batter, and was dinged for eleven hits, but stuck around long enough to get the win.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Alex Jackson (#11)...Much like Austin Riley's promotion a few weeks ago, I didn't quite understand his one. Jackson got off to a great start, but since returning from a month on the DL on June 19, Jackson slashed .231/.296/.394 for Florida with 29 strikeouts in 115 PA. But with Brett Cumberland now in Florida and Scivicque heading up to Gwinnett, there was more time available at catcher in Mississippi. Jackson's 0-for-8 so far since the promotion with four strikeouts, but also four walks. On the year, he's slashing .264/.333/.487 with some iffy numbers behind the plate.

Promoted from Rome to Florida and promoted again: Andres Santiago...Every week, it seems Santiago is on the move. He's appeared for all four Braves' minor league teams above rookie ball and basically goes where there might be a need. Right now, that's the Mississippi rotation.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Promoted from Florida: Touki Toussaint (#14)...Recently, I wrote about how Toussaint was turning the corner. The next start after the article, Toussaint struck out eight over five innings to lower his ERA in the Florida State League to 5.04. It would have gone even lower, but the Braves saw his incredible success of late and rewarded the young right-hander with his first promotion above A-ball. A few days later, he threw a double-header-shortened complete game against Mobile in his debut. It was in a losing effort as two unearned runs followed an Austin Riley error, but it was still a big game for Touki, who's in the midst of a resurgence up the prospect rankings. For the first time since the Braves acquired him, he fell outside my Top 10 in the midseason ranks. Something tells me that will change by the end-of-the-season.

Promoted to Gwinnett, Demoted to Mississippi: Junior Rincon...In just one month, Rincon has spent time with three Braves' teams, though he has yet to play for Gwinnett. Amazingly, despite plenty of movement, he's only pitched four times. He got into his first game in a week yesterday for Mississippi and threw three scoreless innings out of the Mississippi bullpen with four K's in the second game of a double header. Like Santiago, he's just an arm.

Demoted from Gwinnett: Joseph Odom...Briefly, Odom looked like he would get a shot to play regularly in Gwinnett, but he was exchanged for Scivicque after Odom started three games for the G-Braves. He heads back to Mississippi, where his bat has been on fire when he's been healthy enough to play. Through eight games and 22 AB, Odom is hitting a cool .500 with two doubles. Odom's not one of the best catching prospects in the organization, but he's also not a guy to ignore after slashing .278/.327/.431 between Carolina and Mississippi last year.

Florida
Promoted from Danville: Raymar Navarro...At 26 years-old, Navarro was way too old to be pitching for Danville. The Cuban-born right-hander wasn't great with the D-Braves, though. Nor was he that noteworthy in a six-game run with Rome to open the season. Nor is a promotion to High-A all that impressive considering the 67 innings he threw for Carolina last year. But the Braves need to see something out of Navarro and maybe a new challenge will help. His first two games since joining the Fire Frogs haven't been terrible, nor good.

Promoted from Florida to Gwinnett and Demoted: Kevin Matthews...The former Rangers first-rounder was surprisingly promoted to Gwinnett last week, but it was merely for a spot start. That's a bit surprising on its own because of the five games he had appeared in with Rome, all had been out of the pen. Still, Matthews tossed four competent innings in a losing effort for Gwinnett before being demoted to Florida, which is also a promotion over returning to Rome. For a guy who never appeared in High-A ball or better with Texas, it's notable that he's done both for Atlanta in such a short time. His first game in Florida was miserable, though. He was charged with a half-dozen runs in one inning. He'll try to get back on the positive side of things this week.

Activated: Chase Johnson-Mullins...Another reliever in the long-line of small college draftees the Braves have hoarded over the years, CJM is essentially repeating High-A and showing a bit of progression in the process (K% up 3%, BB% down 4%). CJM's a guy who is very difficult to elevate the ball against, but that can be a problem in the minors with less-than-pristine infield surfaces and defensive alignments that sometimes are detrimental to pitchers. Nevertheless, the left-hander has decent control with some swing-and-miss stuff and could be another guy to keep in mind as the Braves try to develop a power bullpen.

Demoted from Mississippi: Stephen Gaylor...I'll be honest. Getting kind of tired of writing about Gaylor. The dude is on the move every week and is only in Florida because that's where there is a roster spot. Seriously, if there were no spots at any other team, I fully expect him to head to the Dominican Republic. He's an organizational guy who plays pretty decent outfield defense and gets on base at an okay clip. Moving on.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Demoted from Mississippi: Sal Giardina...Maybe it's his name or his 80-grade mustache, but I keep thinking Giardina is 43 years-old, which would age him up about 20 years. Like Gaylor, Giardina goes where there is an available spot on the roster. With Jackson heading up to Mississippi with Odom, there was no available time in Double-A so he heads to Florida. At this point, the Fire Frogs are becoming the home of misfit toys.

Rome:
Promoted from Danville: Leudys Baez...The potential has always been there for Baez, who flashes an all-around game that should make him a fixture in prospect rankings. The ball has been known to jump off his bat and while not particularly fast, he's quick and has good instincts. He's also a switch-hitter, which isn't surprising since the Braves are stockpiling switch-hitters. The problem for Baez has been taking this great collection of gifted skills and turning them into results. Over the last two years, he has been hapless in Rome - so much so that he failed to make the Rome roster coming out of spring training and returned to Danville. He obliterated the APPY over 25 games to earn another shot at Low-A and went 3 for-4 with two doubles and a triple in his return to the Rome roster. At 21, Baez's time to get going in his career is right now. More games like Monday will help him get there.

Promoted from Danville: Drew Lugbauer (#44)...This wasn't too much of a surprise. Lugbauer - or Slugbauer - had proven that his power was too much for the Appalachian League, homering ten times in 29 games. His average fell to .243 after a 0-for-9 run against Johnson City right before the promotion, but he took plenty of walks and continued to show that his bat won't be the problem when it comes to Lugbauer. It's his position. At Danville, he started nine games at catcher, nine games at third, and five games at first. He's not particularly gifted at any of these positions but seems capable enough to at least play a bit at each. Whether or not he'll have a long-term position - especially behind the plate - is questionable. But the Braves have some time to figure that out. He opened his Low-A career at first base Monday night and, like Baez, was instrumental in Rome's 5-3 win over Augusta with a pair of doubles. The duo joins Isranel Wilson, who also opened the year in Danville before a promotion up the ladder.

Danville
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Promoted from GCL: Jean Carlos Encarnacion...Just 19 years-old, Encarnacion was surging with the GCL Braves to open the year. Signed at the tail-end of the 2015-16 class, Encarnacion didn't open many eyes during a 37-game run in the Dominican Summer League last year, but through 26 games to begin this year, Encarnacion was hitting .350/.374/.563 in Florida. Unsurprisingly, with some time opening up in Danville with Lugbauer joining Rome, Encarnacion was brought north for a new challenge. Encarnacion split time between shortstop and third base last year but has played the corner infield spots this season. He's got the frame and potential power to match such a positional assignment. For me, Encarnacion was one of the guys who just missed my Midseason Top 50. My expectation is that he'll join the list the next time I do it.

Assigned: Huascar Ynoa...I wrote a pretty big scouting report on Ynoa prior to him making his Danville debut and felt he had a good deal of upside. His debut did little to change that thought. He regularly hit 97 mph with a good slurve, along with a great feel for his changeup, in a four-inning start. He gave up three hits and a run, walked two, and struck out six. While people immediately talked down the pickup because of a 5.26 ERA (because that's all that matters), I think the upside Ynoa has and with how well the Braves develop arms, Ynoa could be a heck of a find.

Demoted from Rome: Austin Bush...A fairly intimidating figure in the box, Bush stands 6'6" and 220 pounds. Suffice it to say, he's meant to play first base. The problem is as worrisome as his physical stature might be to opposing pitchers, they didn't have much trouble getting him out in the SALLY. He hit just .216/.292/.333 over 31 games with a pair of homers. Those numbers are even worse when you take away his first five games (an 8-for-19 start with two doubles and a homer). Bush was a 15th rounder of UC-Santa Barbara who bashed 20 homers as a junior. He also struck out a ton - which he did with Rome as well. If you're getting the power numbers, that's not all that concerning. When you're not...it gets ugly. He did skip by rookie level so maybe a more conservative assignment will get him going.

Demoted from Rome: Alan Crowley...A 26th rounder last year, Crowley opened the season with Danville but was quickly needed in Rome. In backup action, he didn't impress much with a 5-for-27 line. He'll be a backup in Danville as well and is position-limited right now. He did hit .327 last year, though oddly only one of his 17 hits went for extra bases and that one EBH was a homer. He didn't hit for any power in junior college either so I imagine it was his glove that interested the Braves. Honestly, there's just not much to write about a guy who seems destined to be a backup catcher in the minors.

GCL
Rehab from Gwinnett: Mauricio Cabrera...It's been a miserable season for Cabrera, but maybe a quick breather on the DL will get him going. Cabrera was originally placed on the DL at the end of spring training after he was diagnosed with a strained right elbow. Expected to miss just a few weeks, he started a rehab assignment with Florida in late April and joined Gwinnett a week later. His control never came to Georgia, though. He'd later be optioned to Gwinnett rather than simply play there on a rehab assignment and overall, Cabrera walked 25 batters and hit four others in 26.1 ING before being placed on the DL a week ago. A potential closer option before the season, Cabrera's control (which looked so much better once he got to the majors) had worsened to the point where he's a danger to the hitters stepping in. Cabrera's right arm has always been worth millions in potential salary, but his inability to spot pitches has kept him a longshot to be an impact major leaguer. We saw him potentially change that last year over 38.1 ING, but until he's able to do it again, don't count on him being an x-factor for the Braves' pen.

Rehab from Mississippi: Matt Withrow (#45)...Withrow got off to a wonderful start with a 2.08 ERA in April. As good as he was in April, he was just as bad in May before landing on the DL. He'll try to get back on track after a run in the GCL on a rehab assignment. His appearance was a two-inning stint with two strikeouts and no baserunners allowed - good start. Withrow finished fifth last year for most strikeouts in the system and just ahead Toussaint while pitching for Carolina. He walked a few too many hitters but flashed a plus-fastball with good sink and a slider that might push him into a bullpen role as he gets closer to the majors.

Demoted from Mississippi: Guillermo Zuniga...We come to an end of our Zuniga saga. Back on July 4, Zuniga was surprisingly promoted to Mississippi after just one start in the GCL. Two days later, he was placed on the DL. Outfield Fly Rule's Chris Jervis rightly figured out why this strange move happened. The Braves ran out of roster space in the GCL to house players on the DL. They had more room with Mississippi so while Zuniga nursed his injury, he was a "member" of the Mississippi roster. Now healthy enough to pitch, the 18-year-old righty returned to the GCL and started last weekend. All this roster manipulation aside, Zuniga is an interesting pitcher who could jump onto some prospect lists over the next couple of years.

DSL
Nothing to report.

Tuesday, July 25, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: Braves Lose Player to the Air Force

After a big week of promotions to report the last time I did this, the last seven days were more about the weird (lots of player movement for procedural purposes) and the unusual (a player going on military leave) than well-earned promotions - though there were a couple.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover July 18 to July 24. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta
We've already given the full-court press on yesterday's trade. Stephen gave a general recap of the deal and what it means for the Braves while I focused on the prospect acquired in the deal, Huascar Ynoa, with a scouting report.
By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Activated: Arodys Vizcaino...A right index finger strain didn't keep Vizcaino out of action for long. It's been a weird season for the hard-throwing righthander. A year after turning into a groundball pitcher, he's reverted back to his 2015-self with a groundball rate just south of 40%. He's also allowed five home-runs - nearly half of his career total. That's played a big part in an FIP of 3.89. And no, this isn't a SunTrust Park thing - only one of those homers occurred in Georgia. He got off to a slow start but was dominant from April 27 to July 1. His numbers started to fall again before his trip to the DL. The Braves are hoping he gets going again as it both helps his trade value and gives Brian Snitker more options should the Braves trade Jim Johnson or at least demote him from his current position.

Placed on Bereavement List and Activated: Kurt Suzuki...A day after hitting a big two-run homer in Atlanta's 6-3 win over the Dodgers last Thursday, Suzuki headed to Hawaii for his grandfather's funeral. He was activated Monday. It's been a great season for Suzuki, who recently reached 1 fWAR for just the second time in the last six years. He could garner some trade attention moving forward, but with Anthony Recker dealt yesterday, Atlanta will likely hold onto their backup catcher short of an offer John Coppolella can't say no to.

Promoted: Matt Wisler...Like his other call-ups this year, Wisler's return to the majors will be short. Aaron Blair has been given Jaime Garcia's spot in the rotation. Instead, Wisler is back in the bigs to help out the bullpen. He got that shot in Monday's game and got hammered. At this point, we know what Wisler the Starter looks like and it's not good. We also have seen glimpses into what Wisler the Long Reliever looks like and that's not too attractive of an option either. What about Wisler the One-Inning Reliever? It seems like that's the only stone left unturned here. Consider this: Wisler has mid-90's heat and can touch 97 mph on the gun as a starter. He might be able to consistently hit 97 as a reliever or at least be able to push his velocity that high more often. We also know that throughout his career, he has a slider that is capable of generating whiffs. In fact, it's the only pitch he's been able to get swings-and-misses on. Now, if you were able to take his control, increased velocity, and plus-slider and turn it into a reliever, you might have the makings of a solid option out of the bullpen. At any rate, it's time to try something new with Wisler.

Released: Eric O'Flaherty...Atlanta kept hoping they could get something out of the former star reliever, but ultimately, O'Flaherty just couldn't find his groove anymore. Since returning to Atlanta last year, O'Flaherty had a 4.91 FIP over 47 innings while allowing seven home-runs. During his best three years in Atlanta during his first run as a Brave (2010-12), O'Flaherty gave up seven homers in 175 innings with a 2.98 FIP. O'Flaherty had been on the DL with left rotator cuff tendinitis and there was no word on any time table ahead of him being released. Atlanta could have opted to send him to the 60-day DL to get a roster spot, but instead, ran out the clock on something else. O'Flaherty reached ten years of major league service by the Braves waiting as long as they did to release him. That ensures a full pension from Major League Baseball. A solid move by the Braves as they reward one of their most well-liked pitchers of the last decade.

Gwinnett
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Activated and Promoted from Mississippi: Joseph Odom...After spending most of the first three months of the season on the DL, Odom appeared in four games with Mississippi before landing back on the DL. Once activated, he was promoted to replace Recker. His first few games in Gwinnett haven't been great, but Odom will likely be the guy moving forward for the G-Braves behind the plate as the only other catcher on the roster, David Freitas, is a 28-year-old journeyman hitting .265/.346/.354. Odom has been lost in this new era of a number of interesting catching prospects in the Braves' system, but he did rake last year with Carolina, hitting .292/.349/.500 with 8 HR before a promotion to Mississippi. To be sure, he struggled after arriving in Double-A. Odom is solid backstop behind the plate, though not elite. At the plate, he's progressed each year in OPS from .567 to .654 to .688 to .758. While it's difficult to predict big things, Odom has enough skills that might play well as a backup. For the moment, he might be third on the depth chart at catcher so keep him in mind.

Optioned to Gwinnett: Lane Adams...In his most extended shot at sticking in the majors, Adams has done some things well. He's been an option off the bench with five successful steals, has belted a pinch-hit homer and another pinch-hit double and can play all three outfield slots. The negative is that he's only on-based .267 over 30 PA. To be fair, he's received zero starts so nearly all of his action has come in late inning situations. The returns of Danny Santana and Sean Rodriguez, along with Atlanta's insistence to stick with an eight-man bullpen cost Adams his job. Chances are he'll be back again in the majors at some point this season. He's slashed .269/.320/.473 in the minors this year with 18 EBH, including 7 homers, and 15 steals.

Promoted from Mississippi: Enrique Burgos...In a brief return to Double-A, Burgos never appeared as he waited for a spot to open back up in Gwinnett. Burgos has been wonderful since his trade from the Diamondbacks' organization with a 1.15 ERA over 15.2 ING. He has K'd 18 and walked eight as well. Burgos may not be a top relief prospect, but he's done a good job opening some eyes in Gwinnett and might get a chance in the majors with the Braves looking to tinker with their pen to get better results.

Demoted to Florida and Re-Promoted: Xavier Avery...This is the first of many weird moves that occurred last week in which several players were shuffled down to Florida and back up. A few guys came up from Florida and were quickly shifted out again. It must have been a logistical thing. I just wanted to point this out because you'll see some funny transactions here. In pretty much every one of these moves, the player never appeared during his brief time demoted/promoted. In regards to Avery, he's been a productive player for the Gwinnett Braves this season. He strikes out way too often (104 in 292 PA), but he's also got on base at a big-time clip (.371) and showed good pop (.213 ISO). He's also added 15 steals and if it wasn't for Adams, he'd likely be next-in-line in case a bench spot for an outfielder opened up.

Demoted to Florida and Re-Promoted: Caleb Dirks...For the first time in his career, Dirks is struggling. Over his last six appearances (sandwiched around a trip to the DL), Dirks has given up eight earned runs and three homers over 8.2 ING. He's K'd 8 in that time frame. Dirks has been remarkably consistent and awesome during most of his four-year career since the Braves took him in the 15th round back in 2014. It'll be interesting to see how he answers adversity for a change.

Demoted to Florida and Re-Promoted: Evan Phillips...Evan Phillips was a bit of a surprising promotion at the end of May because he was carrying an 8.14 ERA at Mississippi. That was a product of a bad handful of games to open the year. In his final ten games, he had a 2.81 ERA with 18 Ks in 16 ING. Since joining Gwinnett, he's continued to pitch fairly well, though he needs to clean up the walks (12 in 18 ING). Still, he's getting a strikeout an inning and has a 3.00 ERA in his first taste of Triple-A ball. You'll take that anytime. A 17th-round selection back in 2015, Phillips won't turn 23 until this September.

DL: Mauricio Cabrera...The Atlanta Braves' bullpen struggles may have started this year with the inability to get Cabrera going. He was expected to take a prime role in the pen after 38.1 ING in the majors last year with six saves and a 2.82 ERA. Instead, he has been abysmal in Triple-A with nearly a walk-an-inning. His last six outings were especially bad as he walked ten in 5.2 innings. Cabrera had control issues in the minors before but seemed to find it a bit after getting to the majors. It's just flat-out gone now.

DL: Kyle Kubitza...It hasn't been the best season for Mr. Kubitza with a .232/.321/.324 line over 66 games. To be fair, the former prospect has turned it on since June 1, slashing .284/.375/.402. That kind of slash is why many Braves fans thought Kubitza might be a possible piece that could help the Braves' team in 2015 before he was traded to the Angels in the Ricardo Sanchez trade. No word on what sent Kubitza to the DL, but at this point, he's filler at the infield and outfield corner positions.

Mississippi
Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Promoted from Florida: Corbin Clouse...I didn't put Clouse in my Top 50 Midseason list, but he was very close. He keeps this up, he'll definitely be in it when we reconvene for an offseason list. Clouse has some ugly walk numbers this season in Florida, but something started to click for him over his final nine games. In 13.1 innings, he walked three and struck out 19 while not allowing a run. In the 21.2 innings before that, he walked 18 and struck out 27 with an ERA of 3.82. The change for Clouse warranted a promotion to Mississippi and he's already tossed four scoreless innings there. When you add last year's success between Danville and Rome, Clouse has a 1.69 ERA over his first 69.1 ING...which I hear is nice. He's also struck out 103 of 287 batters, a rate of 36%. Not too shabby for a 27th rounder out of Davenport University.

Promoted to Gwinnett from Florida and Demoted to Mississippi: Junior Rincon...Since joining the organization earlier this month, Rincon has spent most of his time in Florida but now returns to Mississippi where he threw one game out of the pen a few weeks ago. He also got a few days in Gwinnett but didn't pitch. It would have been his Triple-A debut if he had.

Florida
Promoted to Gwinnett and Demoted Back: Andres Santiago...Santiago gets around. He's played for four minor league teams this year and all of them are in the Braves' system. Most of the season has been spent in Rome where he's thrown 33.2 of his 53.2 innings. At 27, Santiago is an eleven-year veteran who is just trying to keep a dream alive.

Rome
Promoted from GCL: Troy Conyers...A 23rd-round southpaw out of the University of San Diego, Conyers is a big guy at 6'5" and 230 lbs. Slowed in college by Tommy John surgery in 2014, Conyers was switched from starter-to-closer in 2017 and it came together for him in a big way (12.5 K/9, 2.5 BB.9, 1 HR allowed in 46.2 ING). At 23, it was a surprise to see him in the GCL until you remember that the Braves drafted 20,000 left-handers in June and they couldn't all be in Danville. Over eight games in the GCL, Conyers was absolutely dominant. In 14 innings, he struck out 19, walked two, and the only run to score off him was unearned. He needs a challenge and it might as well come in Rome.

Danville
Nothing doing.

GCL
Demoted from Danville: Jeremy Fernandez...Fernandez wasn't getting a lot of playing time in Danville and what playing time he did get resulted in a .174/.240/.196 line over 50 PA. This is the third season of his career and the 20-year-old has yet to show much offensive capability. He's played mostly second base.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Placed on Military Leave: Adam Groesbeck...The Braves knew this was coming. Groesbeck was a 38th rounder last month out of the Air Force Academy. After graduating, Groesbeck had 60 days of leave and a majority of that was spent with the Braves' organization. The outfielder played in 14 games before leaving the team and struggled mightily with just two hits in 39 PA. He walked seven times and struck out eleven. Groesbeck was among the top hitters in Division I baseball last year with a .410/.460/.649 line over 50 games. According to new requirements put in place last April, Groesbeck must serve two years of active duty before requesting Ready Reserve status (which would last five years). As such, Groesbeck exchanges his baseball uniform for a military one and will begin his primary career as a drone pilot.

DSL
Nothing Reported