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Showing posts with label Tuffy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tuffy. Show all posts

Saturday, July 1, 2017

How are the guys the Braves got rid of are doing?

Since the end of the 2016 season, the Braves have finalized nine trades while losing a few players via waivers. With roughly half of the season already finished, I wanted to look back at the players the team gave up and how they are doing in their new surroundings. Do the Braves miss them or do they miss the Braves more?

November 2, 2016
Ryan Weber selected by the Seattle Mariners off waivers.

-Before the 2016 World Series ended later that night, the Braves lost a right-hander who had made 21 appearances and seven starts with them over the previous two seasons. Weber was always a non-prospect - a guy with AAAA stuff and more guts than talent. He opened this year with 31.2 dominant frames in Triple-A for Tacoma before earning a callup. He was doing alright (3 H, 1 ER) through 3.2 innings, but left the game with a biceps injury. Actually, to be more specific, a "stretch of the musculocutaneous nerve." That sounds painful. He's been sidelined for a month-and-a-half and I have yet to see word on a return.

A. Jackson | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
November 28, 2016
Traded Max Povse and Robert Whalen to the Seattle Mariners. Received a player to be named later and Alex Jackson (minors). The Seattle Mariners sent Tyler Pike (minors) (December 9, 2016) to the Atlanta Braves to complete the trade.

-The Mariners are a common theme in this little update. Povse returned to Double-A to begin this season after eleven solid starts in the Southern League. He was less impressive in the Texas League, though, and his walks were "sky-high" relative to his usual pinpoint location. After 39 innings (he missed nearly a month on the DL), Povse was brought to the majors two weeks ago. His first outing out of the pen was horrid, but he threw two scoreless innings his last time out against the Angels. Meanwhile, Whalen, who made five starts with the big league club last year, has been a bag of awful this season. In 48.1 innings in the hard-hitting PCL, he has a 6.33 ERA. In five of his nine starts, he's given up at least four earned runs. Mixed in there are two spot appearances in the majors, including a start. He was dinged up for five runs in a late May loss to the Red Sox and went two scoreless innings in mid-June out of the pen against the Rangers. He's back in Triple-A and will look to end a streak of five consecutive starts with allowing at least one homerun the next time out.

December 1, 2016
Traded Luke Dykstra (minors), Chris Ellis (minors) and John Gant to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Jaime Garcia.

-Some bemoaned the loss of Dykstra despite the fact that Dykstra found a way to hit over .300 last year in more than 340 PA with a sub-.700 OPS and less than ten steals. I mention all of that because since 1901, only five people were able to do that in the majors and the last time it happened was 1943 with Doc Cramer. This season, Dykstra has been terrible for Palm Beach in the Florida State League, playing against many of his former teammates on the Fire Frogs. Ellis, who spent only one year in the organization after coming over with Sean Newcomb in the Andrelton Simmons trade, has been woeful as well while splitting time between Memphis and Springfield. His ERA is only under 7.00 because his work at Springfield is less-awful. John Gant opened the year on the DL and has only made eight appearances on the year. In seven starts in Memphis, he's been pretty decent. Not great, but compared to the other guys the Cardinals got for Garcia, Gant's been amazing. He's also appeared once out of the bullpen for the Cardinals. he gave up two solo homers in 3.1 ING.

December 8, 2016
Traded Brady Feigl (minors) and Tyrell Jenkins to the Texas Rangers. Received Luke Jackson.

-A Spring Training arm that nearly made the team in 2015 before needing Tommy John surgery, Feigl made six appearances last year in the rookie leagues as part of his rehab. This season, he has pitched 22 times - mostly in the Carolina League - with mixed success. The strikeout numbers are solid and the control is magnificent, but when he's not missing bats, players are finding holes. He's also been miserable once promoted to Frisco to begin June. Jenkins didn't last long in the Rangers' system. A few weeks later, they lost him on waivers to the Reds and he spent about as much time in their system before the Padres got him off waivers. One of last year's fan favorites has been just bad with El Paso in the PCL. He gave up 14 homers last year between Triple-A and the majors. He's surrendered 16 already this year in just as many starts. His strikeout-to-walk rate is nearly 1.

January 11, 2017
Traded Shae Simmons and Mallex Smith to the Seattle Mariners. Received Thomas Burrows (minors) and Luiz Gohara (minors).

-Losing Simmons made me sad as I had been a quick fan of his in 2014. He made it back to the majors for seven games last year and was a potential x-factor for this year's bullpen before the trade. However, the prospect of acquiring Gohara was too great. Unfortunately, Simmons has been DL'd the whole season with a right flexor strain. The last I heard, he was throwing again, but has yet to start a rehab assignment and likely won't be in the mix until late July at the earliest. Smith spent a few hours in the Mariners' system before being packaged in a deal for Tampa's Drew Smyly. He's spent much of the year in the minors or on the DL, but when he's been in the majors, Smith has been pretty successful. With Kevin Kiermaier out for much of the foreseeable future, center field belongs to Smith, who's OBP is roughly 70 points higher than it was last year with the Braves. His stolen base percentage continues to need work (9-of-13), but he's been a nice fit in Tampa and one of the few ex-Braves on this list to look better than he did with the Braves.

January 13, 2017
Traded player to be named or cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Micah Johnson.

-The real winner of this deal was the Braves' fans who now know who Johnson is and follow him on Twitter.

January 26, 2017
Tuffy Gosewisch selected by the Seattle Mariners off waivers.

-Jesus, the Mariners love ex-Braves - even those that never suit up for Atlanta. Earlier in the offseason, Gosewisch had been picked up off waivers from the D'Backs to compete with Anthony Recker. That didn't happen as the Braves signed Kurt Suzuki and DFA'd Gosewisch. He's been around his career norms in 41 games in Triple-A for the Mariners. He also spent a few weeks in the majors where he went just 2-for-28 with 14 K's. Ouchie.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
February 12, 2017
Traded Carlos Portuondo (minors) and Andrew McKirahan to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Brandon Phillips.

-Not included here was the $13M the Reds sent to pay for Phillips contract, leaving the Braves on the hook for just a million bucks. McKirahan was a former Rule 5 pick who spent too much of his rookie season on the inactive list after being suspended for PED. He then spent 2016 on the mend after a second Tommy John surgery. He has yet to pitch this season and has spent some of his time on Twitter railing against vaccines. As for Portuondo, a Cuban-born right-hander, he pitched once and was released. Man, the Reds really wanted to get rid of Brandon Phillips.

March 6, 2017
Christian Walker selected by the Cincinnati Reds off waivers.

-The Braves were the second-of-four teams to get a look at Walker this spring. He started with the Orioles, the team that drafted him and originally promoted him to the majors in both 2014 and 2015. In late February, the Braves claimed him only to lose him two weeks later to the Reds. In late March, he was again on the move - this time to the Diamondbacks. He's bashed the PCL since with a slugging percentage well over .550. He's played mostly first, though he made a cameo at third and also logged a bit of time in left field. Because of how bad the Braves' bench has been - especially early - this one kind of hurts.

April 24, 2017
Traded David Hernandez to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received player to be named or cash.

-You don't want to read about this. David Hernandez has been excellent for the Angels. Absolutely filthy. He's picked up over a K an inning, walked nearly nobody, and his FIP is absurdly in the 1.50-range. He's not this good, but he's definitely pitching like he is and the Braves are wondering why they just didn't bring him to the majors after all.

April 27, 2017
Chase d'Arnaud selected by the Boston Red Sox off waivers.

-There were people who were upset about this. I like to call these people the ones who are easily convinced by a month of success. D'Arnaud looked good briefly last year, but ended with a .245/.317/.335 split. His biggest value came from being able to play multiple positions and swipe a few bases. The Braves already had Emilio Bonifacio for that! (Too soon?) Cutting d'Arnaud, in late April, the utility player landed in Boston. After a month in their organization, he was waived and went to the Padres. He's been straight up awful with the bat and has played a little too often at shortstop, but when you're the Padres and you have Erick Aybar, that's to be expected.

May 8, 2017
Traded Kevin Chapman and cash to the Minnesota Twins. Received Danny Santana.

-Santana has had a few hits here-and-there but he's basically been the same guy who disappointed with the Twins last year. Meanwhile, Chapman, who the Braves added on waivers near the end of spring training, spent about a month in the Twins' organization for their International League club in Rochester. He gave up seven earned runs in 11.1 ING, which was actually an improvement over his time with Gwinnett. He was released a little more than a month after the trade.

May 20, 2017
Purchased Enrique Burgos from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Traded Juan Yepez (minors) to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Matt Adams and cash.

-Burgos has been lights-out with Gwinnett and Adams hasn't been so bad either, but this article is about the players who the Braves gave up. Yepez hit .275/.309/.387 with a homer over 36 games with Rome before the trade. He left the SALLY League and landed in the Midwest League with Peoria. The two leagues are nearly identical in offensive production and while Dozer Park is a bit more homer-friendly than State Mutual Stadium, it's not exactly a big homerun park. Still, Yepez has bashed five homers since the trade, one fewer than he hit during 121 games in the Braves' organization. That said, he's still struggled to the tune of a .298 OBP.

Overall, outside of Mallex Smith - who doesn't have a place in Atlanta - and David Hernandez (sniff), the Braves haven't seen much success this season by the players they traded or waived. Some of that is luck, but a good deal of it is talent evaluation and coaching - something the Braves excel with at the minor league level.

Thursday, January 26, 2017

Braves Add Walk-Off Walker

Last Saturday, I wrote a post here titled "Braves Go Older, Add Boyer and Suzuki." In it, I briefly went over how for a rebuilding team, the Braves are mighty old. I received three responses which may have all been from the same person as all were authored by "Anonymous" and I doubt it was the hacktivist group. Each reply went over the possible benefit of going younger with Adam Walker, an outfielder who had been recently DFA'd by the Orioles. I agreed he was worth a flyer. Turns out: I may have been talking to John Coppolella.

Probably not, but there's a chance because just a few days later, the Braves have added Walker off waivers. In a corresponding move, the Braves dumped Tuffy Gosewisch, who heads to the Mariners. There's not much to talk about with Gosewisch, who was picked up earlier this offseason off waivers from the D'Backs. He can't hit and had no chance of unseating the aforementioned Suzuki.

With that in mind, let's look at Walker, or as my Anonymous brother called him, Walk-Off Walker. By the way, I'm stealing that.

Walker is a Wisconsin native who was drafted in the third round of the 2012 draft out of Jacksonville University. He quickly showed his power potential in 58 games with Elizabethton. With 14 bombs, he tied Patrick Leonard for the most homeruns in the Appalachian League that year. It was four more homers than teammate and future big prospect Max Kepler.

The 6'5" behemoth headed to the Midwest League and Cedar Rapids. He bashed 27 homers there. He knocked 25 more in the Florida State League in 2014 and then set a new personal high with 31 homeruns in the Southern League. It was 14 more homeruns than second place. Last year, Walker made it to the International League and smacked 27 more dingers, good for second in the league and 16 more than Matt Tuiasosopo, who led the Gwinnett Braves.

Despite 124 homeruns and a .235 career ISO, the Orioles decided to waive him. They weren't the first team this offseason to do that. The Brewers claimed him from the Twins in November before designating him for assignment ten days later. In a game where cheap power is hard to find, why would Walker be waived not once, but thrice in one winter?

Strikeouts. More specifically, a lot of them. His strikeout rates are the stuff of nightmares for hitting coaches. There are three seasons where he struck out at least 30% of the time with an absurd total of 38% last year - or 202 strikeouts in 531 PA. With shoddy plate discipline leading to low walk totals, Walker is an example of a True Two Outcomes hitter. Or, as Atlanta Braves fans referred to it a few years ago, all-or-nothing.

Comparables for Walker often include Rob Deer or Mark Reynolds. I'll throw a third name into the fray - Pedro Cerrano. Yes, the fictional Cuban defector from the Major League movies. This quote sums it up - "I cannot hit curveball. Straightball I hit it very much. Curveball, bats are afraid." I don't know if Walker has already tried to offer Jobu some cigars and rum, but it's not the worst idea he could try. Walker simply can't put the wood on the ball enough. Watching him from the 2015, his swing looks a bit wonky at times.



It is okay to strike out a lot when you hit a lot of homers while also getting on base enough to supplement your game. This is where Walker struggles the most. He walked 9.1% of the time in 2015, a new high. Last year, it was 8.8%. In doing so, he did something that's never been done in the majors - strike out 200 times while walking less than 50. Only two players (Drew Stubbs and the aforementioned Reynolds) have ever struck out 200 times and walked less than 70 times.

I'd be remiss if I didn't mention Walker's defensive capability. He's decently athletic, but nothing about his defense stands out. Walker fits into the mold of "will make all the plays he can get to." He can challenge for double-digit steals, but gets caught too often to be considered much of a stolen base threat.

Kevin Seitzer and company have their work cut out for them. Their mission is to take a player with major league power and get him to make enough contact to make him a viable major league player. It's a worthwhile endeavor considering how legit Walker's power is.

Saturday, January 21, 2017

Braves Go Older, Add Boyer and Suzuki

This tweet is pretty fair.
Yes, the roster continues to age as the Braves sign catcher Kurt Suzuki and right-handed reliever Blaine Boyer. The latter was announced a few days ago and is a minor league pact with a spring training invite. Suzuki's contract calls for a base salary of $1.5 million in 2017 with an additional $2.5 million to be earned through yet-to-be-named incentives.

Let's start with Suzuki because that's the bigger deal here - relatively speaking. After maturing in the uber-successful Cal-State Fullerton program, the native Hawaiian was a second-round pick by Oakland in 2004. Three years later, he was in the majors and had a pair of three-win seasons his first two full years with the A's. Since then, he's been in the 1-2 win area while often failing to reach 1 fWAR. In fact, since 2010, Suzuki has a triple slash of.248/.303/.360 with a .292 wOBA and 81 wRC+. Last year, his offensive numbers were pretty in line with that.
Keith Allison (CC by 2.0) via Wikipedia Commons

So, we can hypothesize that Suzuki continues to receive 300+ PA because of his defense, right? Kind of. Of the 24 catchers who have caught at least 2000 innings over the last three years, Suzuki ranks 19th according to Fangraphs' Defensive Component. For reference, Tyler Flowers ranks 22nd and A.J. Pierzynski ranked 23rd. Susuzki's rSB, which seeks to rank a player by how well he controls the running game, is -14 over the last three years - the worst mark of the sample I just cited. On the plus size, he is tied for fourth in rGFP, a stat that is a good sign of athleticism behind home play (the top three are Jonathan Lucroy, Buster Posey, and Welington Castillo). That suggests a catcher who is very capable of making the kind of play pictured to the right.

Pitch-framing wise, Suzuki's been below average in pitch framing since his rookie year according to Statcorner.com. Baseball Prospectus agrees - though has been a bit harsher than Statcorner. It should be said that Suzuki has been amazingly durable throughout his career.

So, if you are like me, you don't really understand this signing based on the information I have provided. On one side, I fully get the argument that Suzuki is likely a better choice than Anthony Recker and Tuffy Gosewisch, who were the current in-house options to play behind Flowers. That's a fair argument to make, too. Gosewisch has a career -0.8 fWAR because he can't hit while Recker's only had the briefest of success in the majors. And the Braves invested very little into Suzuki - who could turn into this year's Emilio Bonifacio. Signed to a similar deal last winter, Bonifacio was still cut with the Braves absorbing his salary at the end of spring training.

Personally, however, it does seem like an unnecessary addition. Suzuki might make the Braves better in 2017, but the difference between him and Recker is so minuscule that it's barely worth mentioning. Further, with Recker's recent success, you could argue that there is the slimmest chance he continues into 2017. The scene from Dumb and Dumber might be playing in your head - "so, you're saying there's a chance?" To be fair, it's not likely that Recker does that. Also in Suzuki's favor is that the team has another veteran capable of taking over full-time should Flowers falter into the mess that was the guy catching for the White Sox. Suzuki won't be much better than that version of Flowers, but is a stabilizing force.

That said, I would have preferred an open competition and a non-roster catcher or two with a chance to push Recker and Gosewisch.

Ken Lund (CC by 2.0) via Flickr
As for Boyer, you really ought to read Travis Sawchik's article at Fangraphs on Boyer. One of the true amazing things about Boyer is how through Statcast, we now are looking at him in a difference light. Boyer, who doesn't strikeout anyone, "allowed the lowest rate of barrels (1.0 percent), on the strength of an average 86.2 mph exit velocity that ranked 11th." What happens now is particularly interesting. How much control does a pitcher have on the quality of contact he allows and is it a skill or just luck based? Boyer might not get an opportunity to give us any sort of answer because he's not promised a spot. Again, this is a simple minor league deal with an invitation to spring training.

With that in mind, Boyer is battling some pretty interesting arms for a spot on this year's roster. He'll need a strong spring training and for whatever it's worth, Boyer has had some ugly limited samples in three of the last four spring training's. You have to imagine that a veteran who relies so much on control and feel would be particularly vulnerable to his spring stats going haywire quickly. Either way, Boyer is unlikely to be a major part of the Braves' 2017 bullpen even after the trade of Shae Simmons.

Both moves are meh in nature. That is to say that neither move will push the needle very much, though the limited commitments won't hurt the Braves any either. That said, adding a 33 year-old catcher and a 35 year-old pitcher during a winter where Atlanta has already picked up a pair of plus-40 pitchers does back up Szymborski's tweet.