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Showing posts with label Kinman. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kinman. Show all posts

Sunday, March 5, 2017

Random Prospect Sunday - Jacob Webb

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Born on August 15, 1993, Jacob Webb was a high school outfielder in Southern Cal who didn't receive much interest coming out of the prep ranks. So, with few options, he spent a year at the community college level before transferring to Tabor College, a Christian school in Kansas that had fewer than 600 students during the 2014 fall semester. Possibly their most famous sports alumni is Rolland Lawrence, a cornerback who appeared in one Pro Bowl for the Falcons during the 70's and holds the franchise interception record with 39. Only one other Tabor College player before Webb had been selected in the baseball amateur draft - Tyson Kendrick, a catcher who played one year in the Tigers' system.

Webb moved to third base for his freshman year at Tabor, but struggled to hit the ball with any level of authority. On the mound, however, things began to click for the right-handed tosser. When he wasn't flailing away at the plate, he was on the mound where he struck out 50 over 55 innings with just 18 walks. He allowed only one homerun during the year. The following year would be as much of a door-opener as it was an eye-opener. A full-time pitcher at this point, Webb became a key contributor for a team that went to the NAIA World Series. In 105.1 innings for Tabor, he finished with an ERA of 1.88 and finished fourth at the NAIA Division I level with 129 strikeouts, which set the new Tabor College record by thirty. Webb completed ten of the 15 starts he made, including a pair of shutouts. The Kansas Collegiate Athletic Conference Co-Pitcher of the Year also set the school record with 15 K's in a single game.

The Braves probably would have been interested in Webb heading into the 2014 draft regardless, but there was a little bit of fate in bringing Webb to the Braves. A college pitching coach happened to be the son of an area scout for Atlanta. After selling the Frank Wren-led team that Webb was a diamond in the rough, the Braves selected him with the 553rd overall selection (18th round). In two years, Webb had gone from a can't-hit position player to a professional pitcher.

Webb headed to Florida to open his professional career. Used both as a starter and reliever, Webb kept the Gulf Coast League hitters at bay with a 3.24 FIP and 2.14 ERA. He struck out nearly a batter an inning and only walked eight over 33.2 innings. For those that saw Webb as a sleeper pick by the Braves that June, his summer only help to solidify that position.

Big things were on the horizon for Webb entering 2015. A new development team was beginning to take shape after the dismissal of Frank Wren and his crew. Webb was destined for a season with Danville and a stint with Rome a definite possibility. However, on the first day of minor league spring training, Webb felt a pop in his elbow while doing some long tossing. He was immediately sent for an MRI and the initial fears were realized. He would need Tommy John and would miss all of 2015. From the very beginning, Webb was sure he would come back. "I didn't have any doubt, or any ideas that I was going to walk away."

After a long rehab that tested Webb's patience, the righty prepared for the 2016 season. It's never easy coming back from Tommy John, but it's even harder when you are pressed to quickly perform. Already 22 years-old, Webb was too old to still be at the rookie-league level and with the Braves adding a large collection of talented pitchers to their ranks after Wren's firing, Webb had to feel the pressure. He began the season in extended spring training as he increased his arm strength. Finally, on June 25, he got into his first game. He allowed a double and walked a batter, but he also struck out the side. Five days later, he struck out another two batters in his one inning of work. With Rome needing a pitcher, he spent the first week of July in Low-A before returning to Danville to finish the season. His next four games were dominant. He faced a dozen batters. He struck them all out. In fact, over his first nine innings with Danville (excluding his short run with Rome), he gave up four hits, walked four, and struck out TWENTY-FIVE batters. Overall, he K'd 28 in 11.1 innings over a dozen games for Danville. His two outings in Rome included a bit of a stinker so his numbers didn't look so hot, but he still struck out three of the ten batters he faced. His walk totals for 2016 were uncharacteristically high - a common side effect a pitcher experiences working his way back from Tommy John.

Webb doesn't possess a killer fastball, though it gets on the batter in a hurry in the 92-94 mph range. Webb locates the fastball well and has a level of confidence needed as the perennial underdog. He'll also sprinkle in a breaking ball that looks slurvy along with a changeup, though his fastball remains his biggest weapon. To this point, Webb profiles as a flyball pitcher.

In the span of eleven draft choices in 2014, the Braves selected Caleb Dirks, Webb, and Kyle Kinman. All three were Frank Wren specials in that they were small-college pitchers with more guts than stuff. There's a chance, however unlikely, that at some point in the future, all three could be in the bullpen for the Braves. For Webb, it'll come down to repeating the success of 2016, though it seems impossible to sustain a 58.3% strikeout rate. With that said, Webb will be a name to watch coming out of the Rome bullpen as 2017 opens.

Recent Random Prospect Sunday profiles...
Tanner Murphy (2/26/17)
Omar Obregon (6/12/16)
Steve Janas (5/15/16)

Friday, January 20, 2017

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: #42-#31

Last week, I began my Top 50 prospects and almost immediately, the Atlanta Braves swung a deal for more prospects. So...thanks for that, John Coppolella.

I kid, but the trade forced me to change my Top 50 to a Top 52 as both players acquired jumped right into the list with one appearing in today's portion. To get me back on track, today's part of the list will be supersized to a dozen. Short of another trade, I'll release ten more next week and ten more the following week before splitting the Top 10 into two parts. I also must apologize for this post being so late. I've been sick the last few days and had trouble wrapping my head around this list. 

When I originally did my Top 50 prospect list, I had Kyle Kinman ranked #38. However, I realized he was actually 26 and I like to keep my prospect lists limited to 25-and-under and players designated as a rookie. With that said, I thought his placement was worth a mention. Lastly, please check out Gondeee's Top 30 Braves prospects that he published this week. As usual, it's a valuable read. 

42. Jonathan Morales, Catcher, 22 years-old, Grade: C 

It wasn't the season many had hoped for with Morales. After blitzing the Gulf Coast Lague (.304/.377/.511) the previous year, Morales jumped to Rome in 2016 and saw a 220 point drop in his OPS. Included was a long stretch of 41 games where he hit .151/.241/.212. That month-plus really impacted his numbers, though even if you take those games out, it was still a far cry from his 2015 run after he was a 25th round pick.

Morales has decent pop and won't strike out much. The flipside of that is he's so aggressive that he's unlikely to take many walks. Offensively, the right-handed hitter needs his hit tool to stand out and it simply did not in 2016. Defensively, though scouting reports aren't high on him, he's had solid metrics and has impressively gunned down half of the 106 baserunners that attempted to steal on him. He also played a little third and had a three-inning cameo in right field, though that was likely more for emergencies.

With the depth behind Morales, he'll be pushed up to Florida in the spring and will need a bounceback season. Obviously, by the fact I ranked him so high, I think he's capable of it. While I don't think his ceiling is nearly as high as other catchers in the system, he is part of a much-improved catching depth that was non-existent two years ago.



41. Steve Janas, RHP, 25 years-old, Grade: C 

Holy groundballs! Janas has maintained a groundball rate in the minors of over 55% during his young career. In nearly 300 innings, he's given up just 14 homers. However, what holds back Janas is that he lacks a true pair of plus pitches or the velocity to push him higher on prospect lists. Nevertheless, this is a results-driven business and the results aren't too shabby for Janas.

Though he won't blow you away with heat, he can hit mid-90's. The downside of doing so is that it makes his fastball straight and easy to both see and pound. As a result, he'll sit in the low-90's with his sinker and cutter. He also has a plus changeup and an inconsistent breaking curveball. Janas was a starter until last season when he got pushed to the bullpen. 

His control and ability to generate groundballs will get him looks and his fearlessness on the mound makes him a wild card. However, the lack the stuff and strikeout ability may limit him to Quad-A filler/organizational depth similar to one of his most common comparable pitchers according to Clay Davenport's projection system - Zeke Spruill. Strangely, both righties went to high school in Marietta. Janas will get a look this spring, but with Josh Collmenter already on the team, Janas is likely going to provide long relief/swingman depth behind a talented Gwinnett rotation.



40. Chad Sobotka, RHP, 23 years-old, Grade: C 

Similar to A.J. Minter, the Braves drafted Sobotka in 2014 knowing that he wouldn't pitch until the next season. As opposed to Tommy John surgery like Minter had, Sobotka was coming back from a stress fracture in his back, which put an ugly end to his collegiate career with the University of South Carolina-Upstate.

His 2015 season was limited to just 37 innings and they were rarely good, but the 6'7" righty bounced back in 2016. His numbers with Rome look poor (4.26 ERA, more hits than innings pitched), but the Braves still liked what they were seeing and promoted him to Carolina. In 13 games there, Sobotka finally started to perform with a 2.04 ERA/1.51 FIP over 17.2 innings. He struck out 24 and walked just three - a far cry from the dozen he walked in just 19 innings with Rome to begin the year. By season's end, he had joined Minter in Mississippi for two appearances.

Sobotka's velocity is good, though not great. However, he gets great movement and his two-seamer can get a good number of grounders. His slider has plus-potential and while he has a changeup, he will mostly work off his fastball/slider. Sobotka could be in the majors sometime in 2017, though with just 75.2 innings as a professional, Atlanta might go slow with him. Either way, Sobotka looks like he has a shot to be a solid righty with high-leverage potential.



39. William Contreras, Catcher, 19 years-old, Grade: C+

Over two seasons, Contreras has shown that he could be capable of being a big sleeper in a system with rapidly improving catcher depth. Just 19 years-old, Contreras signed out of Venezuela and made his debut with the 2015 Dominican Summer League team. His triple slash of .314/.370/.413 was solid enough before you consider his age (17) and position.

Contreras moved up to the Gulf Coast League this year, where he shared time with Ricardo Rodriguez (acquired in the Christian Bethancourt trade) and 26th rounder Alan Crowley. His numbers took a bit of a dive to .264/.346/.375. He displays a quick bat and there is some power projection.

Scouts rave about Contreras's defensive ability behind the plate and how he handles pitchers. I like his offensive potential as well. He's the type of player who could easily have a breakout campaign and jump up this list quickly. While he'll be ticketed for a stop in Danville for 2017, I do hope he plays his way up to Rome, which would further cement his prospect potential.

38. Bradley Roney, RHP, 24 years-old, Grade: C+

For three years, Roney has both excited Braves fans with big K numbers and frustrated Braves management because he often doesn't know where his pitches are going. In 67.2 innings last year in the high levels of the minor leagues, Roney struck out 88 - the most strikeouts by a Braves reliever and tied for 15th in the entire system. That strikeout rate was actually down a tad from 2015. Unfortunately, his walk rate continues to be his Achilles' heel.

In 2016, Roney issued 54 unintentional walks - a rate of about seven every nine innings. His strike percentage was about 6% below the league average. You can't survive for long doing that no matter how good his curve is - and it's really good. It's a major league quality pitch, but without pitching ahead in the count more frequently, hitters can let the curve dart below the strikezone.

Last year at this time, we looked at Mauricio Cabrera in much the same way as Roney. Sure, Cabrera had 100 mph heat and some good secondary stuff, but will he throw strikes? Cabrera was a higher rated talent, but Roney can have a similar impact on the major league roster if he can only throw strikes. No better time than 2017 to start.



37. Thomas Burrows, LHP, 22 years-old, Grade: C+

Acquired last week in the Mallex Smith trade, Burrows was the #117 pick of the 2016 draft. Before that, he became the all-time saves leader at the University of Alabama. It's easy to look over Burrows when the Braves also acquired Luiz Gohara in this deal, but Burrows has a good chance to get to the majors - and soon.

Burrows pitched in the short-season Northwest League after he was drafted and blitzed the circuit with 37 strikeouts in 24.2 innings. That comes out to a third of all batters he faced. He gave up a lot of hits, though a .367 BABIP will do that to you. The walk rate wasn't good, but competent enough to help Burrows earn a 2.88 FIP.

Burrows gets good sinking movement from his low-to-mid 90's heater and his slider improved dramatically in 2016. Lefties have a very difficult time even picking up the ball and that will likely continue to be an asset for the southpaw. Whether he can be a full-inning reliever and high-leverage asset will be something to watch as he moves up the ladder.

36. Connor Lien, OF, 23 years-old, Grade: C+

It was not the season many had hoped for Lien in 2016 - least of all the outfielder himself. In 2015, Lien burst onto the scene with a .285/.347/.415 clip in the pitching-friendly Carolina League with 36 extra-base hits and 34 steals. The season was awarded with a trip to the Arizona Fall League, which is where the video below came from

However, an early season hand injury put Lien on the shelf for over two months in 2016. The 22-year-old also struggled when he was in the field, slashing just .233/.320/.408 with a 33% strikeout rate. On the bright side, he continued to display tremendous defense in center field.

Lien possesses good pop and his defense includes an elite arm and great instincts and range. However, his bat still needs a bit more refining. The plus side is that even with his negatives last year, the .175 ISO and 9% walk rate help to put an optimistic spin on the season. He'll likely repeat Mississippi to begin 2017 and try to trend positive once again.



35. Jesse Biddle, LHP, 25 years-old, Grade: C+

After a lost year to Tommy John surgery, Biddle will be given the chance to return and flourish in 2017. A former top prospect for the Phillies who the Braves acquired from the Pirates after the latter tried to sneak him through waivers. 

I recently wrote a scouting report about Biddle so I would rather not spend too much time rehashing it here so here are the highlights. Biddle is a former Top 100 Prospect who struggles with his release point. If he can find more consistency with it, he can get over his fastball and let the pitch work for him. His curveball has exceptional bite and is his best pitch. 

Biddle will have a shot to compete for a spot in the bigs this spring, but I imagine the Braves see 2017 as a year for Biddle to work on things rather than pressure himself with a big league assignment. A decent spring and a bill of health will allow him to begin the year in Gwinnett. If not, he could start a level lower. Regardless, Biddle could be a sneaky-good move by the Braves front office if he's able to rebound.



34. Caleb Dirks, RHP, 23 years-old, Grade: C+

After a year in the Dodgers' system, Dirks returned last year to the organization that spent a 15th round pick on him back in 2014. Not that it has mattered much to Dirks - he continues to dominate opposing hitters every step of the way.

In 143.1 innings, Dirks has a beautiful 1.32 ERA and an FIP under 3.00. He won't put up ridiculous strikeout numbers - especially for this system, but he's been close to a 30% K-rate regardless. What makes Dirk especially good is his control. He had about a 20% difference between his strikeouts and walks - an elite number worth celebrating.

Dirks doesn't have the best stuff and his velocity won't wow anyone, but he knows how to throw his pitches and hits his spots. Last year, that was especially true because about 43% of his pitches came with Dirks ahead in the count. The average is roughly 6-7% lower. Dirks may lack the ceiling of some relieving prospects the Braves have, but as long as he continues to pitch like he has, he'll have his opportunity to impress.

33. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, 20 years-old, Grade: C+

Year 2 of Ricardo's time with the Braves was much healthier than his 10-start 2015 campaign, but the results remained underwhelming for the teenager who won't turn 20 until April 11. The last fact gives the Braves hope that 2017 will be the year Sanchez begins to scratch the surface of his talent.

Talent and stuff-wise, Sanchez can excite you on a good day with low 90's heat and a very good curveball. His delivery is smooth and he adds a developing changeup that often can make or break him on any given day depending on his feel for the pitch.

Sanchez is trying to put it all together. He's prone to a big inning and can sometimes lose focus. Undersized, Sanchez can resemble a bulldog when in trouble as he tries to get out of jams. He's a competitor and a strong worker - he just needs to be more consistent. It's hard to get noticed in this system if you weren't a #1 pick, but Sanchez has the stuff to be a sleeper in 2017.




32. Lucas Herbert, Catcher, 20 years-old, Grade: C+

Kolby Allard's catcher in high school, Herbert was picked in the second round of the 2015 draft. Many assumed the Braves were hedging their bets in order to keep Allard from going to college rather than signing. However, I thought the Braves really liked what Herbert brought to the table and felt he was worth the pick. To this point, we haven't seen the results to support that contention.

It's early, yes, and Herbert was aggressively moved to Low-A Rome probably before he was ready. As a result, only 12 of the 367 PA he logged last year came against pitchers younger than him. Herbert struggled last year to find the right stance, the right setup with his hands, the right amount of batting gloves. He seems to me like a batter that really needs to rework much of what he does at the plate. If he can find consistency at the plate, his plus power will be a weapon and could be the difference between a starting and backup role in the majors should he get there.

Defensively, Herbert is a tremendous force behind the plate. He's incredibly athletic and shows great footwork along with great instincts at reading the ball. These skills will give him a chance to stick around even if his bat is still lagging behind, but I do hope the Braves show a bit more patience with him. He clearly did not appear ready for Rome and could use a return assignment. However, with so many catchers now in the system, finding at-bats for all of them is becoming a bit more difficult. Still, Herbert's power and defense are worth an extended look.


31. Ray-Patrick Didder, Outfield, 22 years-old, Grade: C+

The converted infielder had spent three years at rookie ball showing a good idea of the strikezone, but not much else. That changed in 2016 when the now center fielder settled into the position with Rome. In nearly 600 plate appearances, Didder posted a .361 wOBA with the aid of a .387 OBP. He added a .107 ISO to go with 37 steals.

One thing that stands out quickly about Didder is that he trusts his hands enough to crowd the plate. Last year, he was hit 39 times, the most in minor league baseball. While he has great speed, he's still developing an eye for when to steal. Defensively, he's a surprisingly rather good there despite being a middle infielder only a few years ago. He has the range to play center with a strong and accurate arm.

Up until this point, Didder has been about league average in age each year. That might change this year as a strong start with the Fire Frogs could get the 22-year-old promoted to Mississippi by summer. Such a move would cement his place as a strong outfield prospect. Either way, if Didder keeps developing like he did last year, the Braves will be very pleased with the Arubian native.


2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects*
5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions)
#52-43


The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales
41. Steve Janas
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder

*Top 50 was increased to Top 52 after a trade.

Wednesday, January 4, 2017

The 2017 Braves Bullpen Could be Something Special

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
In the early months of the 2016 season, the Atlanta Braves had a big problem. Their bullpen was one of the worst in baseball. InApril, the pen combined for a 5.10 ERA and -0.1 fWAR. This was largely due to walks, something that no other team was worse at than the Braves before May. They weren't being aided in any way by a .326 BABIP, third worst in the majors. Atlanta used 14 different guys in a relief role during the month, including Matt Wisler, which is less than ideal when you consider the team was a month into the season.

But things would begin to change. In May, they finished with a monthly ERA of 3.91 (next to a 3.26 FIP) and dropped to the middle of the pack in walks as a percentage. Meanwhile, they continued to strike out a ton of guys. Even more, they were starting to find a group of guys to rely on. Arodys Vizcaino was deadly during the first few months and after early season issues, Jim Johnson would return after an injury and flourish. The unsung hero, though, was Ian Krol. After being cut in camp, Krol came back to the majors with a vengeance and developed into the best full-inning lefthander the Braves have had in a few years.

The pen would continue to move guys in-and-out, but by August, they had found a few new arms to rely on. Mauricio Cabrera surprised many by throwing strikes while the Braves were getting big lifts from Chaz Roe and Jose Ramirez. By the final month, the Braves' pen was reaching elite status.

Let's look forward to 2017. While the Braves have been busy adding depth to the starting rotation, the pen hasn't been reshaped much at all. The team re-upped with Johnson, who had a 2.29 FIP and 3.09 xFIP after returning from the DL in June. They added a number of arms to compete for innings, but left the pen to be decided later.

Turns out that may have been a good idea.

In Johnson, Krol, Vizcaino, and Cabrera, the Braves have a quartet of pitchers who combined for a 25% strikeout rate, a 9% walk rate, 3.1 fWAR, and a FIP of about 3.10 (take with a grain of salt as I used an average). That's including Vizcaino's late struggles after he fought oblique and shoulder issues.

Of course, one might and maybe should rain on my parade. Of the four I mention, only Johnson has a real history of success (and a recent history of great failure). It's important to remember that, but anytime you can realistically head into the season with a core of four arms that put up the kind of success this quartet did last season, you have to feel good about the future.

Those four can't do it alone, though. How good the Atlanta Braves bullpen in 2017 depends on who fills out the other slots. Braves fans remember just how badly the Braves struggled down the stretch in 2011 as the trio of Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and Eric O'Flaherty began to struggle with the workload because Bobby Cox lacked competent options to fill in. Brian Snitker may not have to worry about that, though, because there are a number of exciting arms to jump from J.V. to Varsity.

I mentioned Ramirez and Roe before. Neither has had much success in the majors, but both pitched exceptionally well down the stretch. Ramirez has some issues - his 5.03 xFIP suggests he may struggle moving forward. Roe, on the other hand, had an even better FIP (1.75) and xFIP (2.75) than his ERA of 3.60. A groundball pitcher who K'd well over a batter an inning with good control? More of that, please.

Daniel Winkler and Shae Simmons have one thing in common. If healthy, each can be x-factors in anyone's pen. Add Luke Jackson to the discussion and even if only one of that trio becomes a trusted asset in 2017, it'll bring the core four some depth to allow them to have nights off without the Brave manager getting a bit antsy about their replacements.

By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA (P. Rodriguez)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Left-hander Paco Rodriguez hasn't pitched in the majors since May 29, 2015, but don't sleep on him being a big part of the 2017 pen. In 85.1 innings in the majors, Rodriguez has a 2.98 FIP/3.00 xFIP built on solid control and an excellent strikeout rate. He's been deadly in high leverage (opposing .202 wOBA) and righties have only been moderately more successful than lefties (.271 wOBA versus .220).

I can go on. Rule 5 pick Armando Rivero has upside, veterans Eric O'Flaherty and Jordan Walden could be salvageable, John Danks has left-hand reliever potential, and Josh Collmenter has value in long relief. Young arms like Bradley Roney, Evan Phillips, Steve Janas, Akeel Morris, Chad Sobotka, Caleb Dirks, and Kyle Kinman need only to take that next step like Mauricio Cabrera.

And then, there is a guy like A.J. Minter. If you look up the word "dominance" in the dictionary, there is a picture of Minter. In nearly 35 innings last year over three stops, Minter K'd 47 next to just 11 walks. We knew he was a first round talent when the Braves drafted him in 2015 and once finally healthy, he put on a show. What can he do over a full season?

A hidden weapon might have been those veteran starters the Braves picked up. Only four more teams had bullpens that logged more innings than the Braves (567.1 innings) and only one made more calls to the pen. That's in no small part of a cause of a starting rotation that averaged 5.5 innings per game, 19th best in the majors. Of the ten playoff teams, only the Dodgers and Orioles were worse. Aaron Blair (15 starts) and Williams Perez (11 starts) each failed to average 5 innings a start. Bartolo Colon averaged 5.8 innings per start despite being 43 years old. R.A. Dickey also averaged 5.8 while Jaime Garcia averaged 5.5 innings per start. If you add that to Julio Teheran's workhorse 6.3 innings per start and Mike Foltynewicz's 5.6 innings per start, you get an average of roughly 5.8 innings per start. That would have have been right in tune with the Washington Nationals, Cleveland Indians, and New York Mets - all playoff teams in 2016. While the difference of .3 innings per start may not wow you, it's like having your starting staff throw 40 to 60 more innings. Not only will the extra innings likely be quality frames, they will put less of a strain on your bullpen.

Listen, I know there are nearly as many questions about this bullpen as there are reasons to be excited. But despite the fact that the Braves have refused to significantly alter a bullpen that finished 2016 14th in fWAR and 24th in xFIP, I believe that the pen is destined for very big things next year and beyond. Sure, not all things will go the Braves' way and relievers have a tendency to just "lose it." Nevertheless, this pen has a chance to be pretty special.

Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Transaction Tuesday: Allard, Shae, Kinman, Pache

These moves happened between May 31 and June 6. Check out the previous week's recap.

Gwinnett Braves
Promoted (from MIS): Brad Roney...A righty out of Southern Miss in 2014, Roney is another of those exciting arms who has off-the-charts stuff, but doesn't always know where it's going. In fact, he rarely does. Last year, he struck out 70 in 48.1 innings, but also walked 35, hit six batters, and uncorked six wild pitches. More of the same this year, but the Braves are still progressing him through the system in a hurry. While no one should be compared to Craig Kimbrel, it's worth remembering Kimbrel had serious control concerns in the minors. The year before he hit the majors, Kimbrel walked 6.8 per nine. With any luck, Roney will make that leap as well.

Activated: Sean Kazmar...The veteran Gwinnett fixture had been on the paternity list for a little over a week. I had wondered if he was considering retirement, but he got back in action over the last four days. He's hitting .302 this season.

Optioned: John Gant...One of the trio of pitchers holding down the long relief role for the Braves, Gant got into a pair of games against the Dodgers last week, including a two inning stint. It was his fourth stint in the majors just this year. Gant has looked good in 43 innings with Gwinnett.

Optioned: Ryan Weber...Another part of the trio with Gant and Casey Kelly, Weber has not been able to find the magic from last year that made him a competent fifth starter toward the end of the year for the Braves.

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Rehab: Erick Aybar...Nobody needed to get away for awhile more than Aybar, who suffered a foot contusion a few weeks ago. He'll look to jumpstart his season once he is activated, though the results in Gwinnett have hardly been awe-inspiring (2-for-12, 2 SB, 2 BB, K).

Rehab: Shae Simmons...After some forearm tightness halted his rehab stint over a week ago, Simmons was able to get back in the saddle during the weekend. He opened a game with a hitless inning where he walked one batter and struck out two. So far in four rehab games, he's pitched four innings, allowed two hits, walked four, and struck out nine. The control needs to be cleaned up, but with another good rehab outing or two, he might rejoin the Braves.

Mississippi Braves
Acquired: Jed Bradley...A former first rounder out of Georgia Tech, Bradley was acquired from the Brewers for future considerations last week. In his first game, he allowed all three batters he faced to reach and each would score, giving him an ERA of infinity with Mississippi. The lefty was a Top 100 prospect heading into 2012, but that was a long time ago.

Activated: Kyle Kinman...A pair of DL trips have limited Kinman, who briefly became a potential option for the major league team toward the end of spring training. Lefties can't hit him, but can he progress against righties? With a wide-open bullpen situation in Atlanta, Kinman could get a look sooner rather than later.

Promoted (from MIS), Demoted: Steve Janas...After just a game in Gwinnett where he retired all six batters he faced, Janas returned to Mississippi. He's had a surprisingly good season after being moved from the starting rotation to the pen this year. He doesn't get K's, but also doesn't walk batters. It's difficult to see him as a prospect for the future, but he might have a chance to surprise.

Released: Danny Burawa...Things have gone from bad-to-worse-to-cut for Burawa this season. After a dozen games in the bigs last year for the Braves, Burawa entered spring with a chance to win a spot in the bullpen. He struggled early and was one of the first players crossed off. He went down to Gwinnett, but couldn't find the strikezone. A trip to Mississippi did little to help and after the Braves acquired Bradley, Burawa was cut to open up a spot.

Carolina Mudcats
Demoted (from GWI): Stephen Gaylor...Wherever you need him, Gaylor is there. Whether it's one game in Rome or another game in Gwinnett, Gaylor will be ready. For the most part, though, he's played in Carolina for 36 games where he's slashing .232/.347/.263 with 10 steals.

Demoted (from GWI): David Peterson...A righty out of the 2012 draft, Peterson was struggling very badly for Gwinnett to open the year. In 17.2 innings, he had been charged 18 earned runs, surrendered three homers, and walked 14. In his defense, four were intentional. A far cry from his 2015, where he had a 2.28 ERA in 51.1 innings as he climbed from Carolina to Gwinnett. A move to Carolina could help take the pressure off and get him jumpstarted.

Rome Braves
Promoted (from GCL): Kolby Allard...The expectation was that we wouldn't see Allard until later this month with Danville, but the 18 year-old first-rounder started his first game of the year yesterday with Rome. The results weren't so good, but it was great to see Allard get his season going with a game in Rome either way. The Braves will be very cautious with Allard and it wouldn't surprise me to see him head to Danville when their season begins.

Danville Braves
Demoted (from ROM): Adam McCreery...Early results were not overwhelming for McCreery, who gave up six runs (three earned) in 3.1 ING. He was moved down the ladder to make room for Allard.

Demoted (from CAR): A.J. Minter...I've yet to see an explanation for this move. Minter had thrown 10 innings over 7 games with Rome and Carolina before not appearing in a game for a week and getting reassigned to Danville. Theoretically, if it were an injury, Minter would have been DL'd. Maybe it was an innings deal?

GCL Braves
Promoted (from DSL): Anthony Concepcion...The following several moves were DSL guys from last year who were promoted to GCL to begin the year. Concepcion was a good bat last year, though he was a bit old for the league. He slashed .308/.410/.451 with 5 HR and 12 SB while splitting time between 1B and LF. I would have liked a more aggressive move to Danville.

Promoted (from DSL): William Contreras...A catcher, Contreras hit well last year in the DSL at just 17 years-old. He was part of the group of free agents the Braves added in the winter after changing general managers and scouting directors.

Promoted (from DSL): Luis Mejia...An infielder who turned 19 a few months ago, Mejia on-based .376 with the help of a 29 BB/25 K rate over 60 games. A little undersized, it's difficult to foresee the switch-hitter developing much power.

Promoted (from DSL): Luis Mora...Good to see Mora get a promotion after two years in the DSL. He had zero control in 2014, but turned it around in a big way in 2015 as one of the Braves' more dependable starters. A right-hander, he went form more walks than strikeouts to a 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate in the span of a season. He turns 21 in a little more than a week.

Promoted (from DSL): Christian Pache...One of two big international pickups (Derian Cruz is the other), it's good to see that the Braves think enough of Pache to skip him past the DSL. Pache was ranked 11th by Fangraphs among the 2015 International Class. He's expected to have the skills to stick in center with a chance to hit for a high average with good power.

Promoted (from DSL): Ramon Taveras...Like Mora, Taveres pitched two seasons in the DSL before earning a trip state-side. A full-time reliever, Taveras's control improved tremendously a year after walking 11 in 14 innings as Taveras walked just six in 34.1 innings last year. He doesn't have gaudy K numbers, but the righty's improvement will keep him around for a third season.

Promoted (from DSL): Randy Ventura...No Brave had a bigger year in the DSL than Ventura, who swiped 55 bases in just 58 games last year with 35 walks to 27 strikeouts. A car accident ended his year prematurely, but if back, he'll get a chance to show that he has an encore in him. I ranked him 25th in my Top 50 before the season. His production early will go a long way toward keeping that spot.

Promoted (from DSL): Bredio Vega...A tall righty out of Panama, Vega struggled in the DSL last year especially early, but started to turn the corner over his last eight games. He K'd 13 in 13.2 innings while walking six. A reliever with good velocity, Vega could be a fun name to watch when the Gulf Coast League season opens.

DSL Braves
Too many moves to list as the Dominican Summer League rosters were set for the beginning of the season.

Tuesday, May 24, 2016

Transaction Tuesday: Shae, Yepez, Minter, Banuelos

Many apologies for disappearing over the last week. A slew of other commitments propped up and pushed many of the things I enjoy - like this blog - to the side as I tried to be an adult. I hope to address many of the things I missed over the coming days like Fredi Gonzalez's dismissal, yesterday's trade with the Orioles, and continue my recap of the 5 Best and 5 Worst Drafts since 2000. To get back into the swing of things, here is this week's minor league transaction recap. I missed last week, but this won't be a supersized version. Instead, this will be all of the reported moves from May 17 to May 23.

Gwinnett Braves
Signed: Lucas Harrell...After looking like a pretty interesting middle-of-the-rotation piece in 2012, Harrell's career has went off the tracks. Part of that was due to Harrell being really hit-lucky in his Age-27 year. Did I say only part? Harrell is a groundball guy who spent last year in Korea. He depends on location and being stubborn on the mound - not entirely terrible things, but unlikely to help him get back into the majors without some serious luck.

Signed: Rob Wooten...Second go-around with the Braves just this season. Wooten may have been cut before to seek other employment opportunities and when he didn't find them, indicated he was open for a return assignment. Thoroughly unimpressive reliever.

Optioned: Aaron Blair...What we saw with major league Aaron Blair was a guy who nibbled - a lot. He was behind the count on 30% of his pitches, which is not an easy way to make a living. Pitching behind leads to a 74% contact rate on pitches outside the strikezone as hitters can zero in on where they want the pitch and even if it's a "ball," it's where they want it. Blair got away with it for awhile, but it's just not possible to keep pitching behind as major league hitters tee off pitches that they can guess with a reasonable amount of confidence that they will see - as his 32.5% line drive rate can attest.

Optioned: Manny Banuelos...With his assignment last week, Banuelos took the next step in getting back into the Braves' good graces after succombing to more injuries last year. It's been his M.O. during his nine-year career. Excite, get hurt. Excite, get hurt. He made one start with Rome on a "rehab" assignment before being curiously optioned a day later.

Optioned: Joel De La Cruz...Seriously, Atlanta. Stop calling him up unless you plan on using him. For the second time this season, Cruz was promoted to the majors only to sit in the bullpen for a short time before being sent back down. Now in his ninth year (if you don't count 2007-08 when he didn't pitch), Cruz has not been good at all for Gwinnett this year.

Optioned: John Gant...I've never been too high on Gant like others. He's a flyball pitcher who relies on his herky-jerky delivery a little too much over having the skill level to throw balls passed hitters. That works in the minors - not so much in the majors. He could be a decent long reliever, but expecting more would be a bit too much in my opinion.

Released: Sean Burnett...The southpaw badly wants back in the majors. When a run with the Dodgers didn't get him to the majors, he tried the Braves. Growing impatient, he now heads to the Twins organization in his quest to wear all of the AAA jerseys in one year. Burnett has looked good in AAA and honestly, I would have preferred him over Eric O'Flaherty, but the difference between the two probably isn't significant enough to care.

Mississippi Braves
Promoted: Levi Hyams...Short of a small run in Gwinnett of 12 PA, Hyams has been in Mississippi this year and was simply being returned to the team after a brief assignment with Danville. He's hit worse this year than he did last year (.365 wOBA - .267), but keeps getting work.

Promoted (to AAA) and Demoted: Victor Mateo...Organizational arm went to Gwinnett to give them an extra arm if need be, but quickly was demoted back to Mississippi, where he has a 4.76 ERA in 11.1 innings.

Demoted (to Danville) and Promoted: Michael O'Neal...An independent signing last offseason, O'Neal has played at times this year for Carolina to the tune of four runs in nine innings. Was brought up to Mississippi for an emergency start last week and was actually quite decent (4 ING, H, 2 BB, K). If he has a future big league career, it'll likely be as a left-hand specialist.

DL'd and Activated: Matt Kennelly...Has played in all of six games in this, his tenth season. Did hit his first homerun since 2013 with Gwinnett.

DL'd: Kyle Kinman...Second trip to the DL for Kinman this year. Over his last eight games, he has surrendered five hits, five walks, and struckout six over 8.1 innings. A lot was hoped for with Kinman this season, but it's been slow to get going.

Released: Steve Rodriguez...Picked up in the minor league portion of last year's Rule 5 draft, Rodriguez hit just .210 at Mississippi last year and was hitting .209 at the time he was released this year. In 74 games with the Braves' organization, he had just six extra-base hits - all doubles. To remember all that Rodriguez brought, feel free to read my recent Random Prospect profile on him.

Carolina 
Promoted: A.J. Minter...Atlanta really likes what they have seen from the 22 year-old second rounder who made his debut with Rome earlier this month. It's worth mentioning (again) that Minter only tossed 58 innings in college so what the Braves have right now is fully based on potential rather than results, though Minter definitely looked good with Rome (6 ING, 2 H, BB, 6 K). He made his Carolina League debut last week and struck out 4-of-6 batters he faced in the two-inning outing. The lefty has a chance to be a quick riser at this rate. The demotion of O'Neal (covered above) to Danville set the stage for Minter to join Carolina.

Rome
Promoted: Carlos Castro...With a slew of injuries leaving Rome short-handed, the team brought up Castro from the Danville roster. Castro spent two years in the Dominican before finally hitting in 2014. Atlanta finally brought him stateside and he slashed .319/.340/.412 with Danville last year. He's a bit too old, is a first baseman without power, and doesn't walk. Still, he should make the Rome lineup better and possibly show the team that when those injured players return, Castro shouldn't be returned to Danville.

Promoted: Trevor Belicek...His placement in Danville was only temporary. Belicek had been one of Rome's most dependable relievers and often gave the team multiple inning performances. His almost robotic control comes through impressively in his stats (28.1 ING, 1 BB, 32 K). That includes a three-inning stint with Mississippi in April. Belicek would be traded Monday to the Orioles.

Rehab Assignment: Shae Simmons...Simmons had already logged a pair of innings with Gwinnett, but with Gwinnett playing in Charlotte as his next rehab game was on tap, the Braves moved him down to Rome so that he could stay close to Atlanta. Most teams do something similar, but with two minor league teams so close to the parent squad, Atlanta is usually able to avoid any case of sending a rehabbing player on the road. As for the outing, Simmons had his cleanest inning. He needed just 11 pitches to send Augusta into the field. He struck out one and 7-of-11 pitches went for strikes with 3 looking. He's close - real close.

DL'd: Matt Tellor...He's struggling to stay healthy and hasn't hit much when healthy. Of 84 possible plate appearances, he has 2 doubles, a homer, one walk, and 32 strikeouts. He's 24.

DL'd: Juan Yepez...It was good to see Yepez get some reps at third base last week and the 18 year-old was handling himself okay before hitting the DL. Yepez is going to hit. It's his calling card. The dream was that he would do so as a third baseman, but that might be too much to ask for. As a 1B, his value decreases.

Danville
Demoted: Jose Ramirez...Just a means to get a live arm on the Gwinnett roster. Ramirez had thrown 46 pitches in a 2.2 inning outing against Charlotte on May 20, so a demotion to Danville gives him time to rest. He'll be back (possibly today or tomorrow).

GCL
No moves.

DSL
No moves.

Tuesday, April 26, 2016

Transaction Tuesday: Sims, Marksberry, Kinman

I'm going to try something new this season and that's keeping up with minor league transactions. Every Tuesday, I'll take a look at each level to go over some of the moves and provide analysis. If this is the kind of thing that interest you, let me know. Apologies that this was released so late today. Planning for a 5 year-old birthday's party takes a lot out of you. I will not include any of today's transactions and instead push them off to next week's version.

Review last week's transactions.

Gwinnett
Activated: Jose Ramirez...He was placed on the DL after he was outrighted, but didn't stay on it for long. The righty has been active with three games already and has flashed the strikeout potential that led to him making the roster out of spring training (7 K's in 4 ING). He's also surrendered a solo homerun.

Promoted: Lucas Sims...I was a bit surprised to see him get a callup so quickly, but you have to remember that Sims had a dozen starts at Double-A and five starts last fall in Arizona. His first go-around with Gwinnett continued his season-long control issues, but also continued his strong strikeout numbers. It'll be interesting to see how Sims reacts over the next month or so. Hitters in Triple-A are often guys who have seen major league-quality pitches and will make a young pitcher work if he doesn't throw strikes.

Optioned: Casey Kelly...Talk about doing little to hurt your case to return. Kelly worked three innings in his Braves debut and kept a game from becoming a blowout after Bud Norris struggled. It was a good follow-up for Kelly, who worked seven scoreless in his second start with Gwinnett. It wouldn't surprise me any to see Kelly still turn into a capable major league option. After all, there was a time where he ranked in the Baseball America Top 100 in four consecutive seasons.

Optioned: Matt Marksberry...It's a bit surprising that the Braves choose to keep Eric O'Flaherty over the younger lefty. Say what you will about Marksberry's limitations, but he has been studly against lefties in the majors (.164/.270/.255). He handled Mississippi hitters with ease before his short promotion to Atlanta. He'll be the next lefty called up when the Braves want one.

Optioned: Williams Perez...The biggest problem for Perez in the majors is that he really doesn't have the stuff to be a big league starter. He can stick around and even might have a nice run where he holds down the fort for a few starts, but he relies on deception and control in the minors - things that don't get him far enough with major league hitters. He struggled in his return to Triple-A, giving up three runs on three walks over five innings. He also struck out five.

Demoted and Promoted: Braeden Schlehuber...It's been a slow start to the season for Schlehuber, who began things on the DL. After being activated the week before last, he was "demoted" to Danville to get the roster numbers under control before being "brought" back. The career .218 hitter is 1-for-6 in two games this year.

Outrighted, Demoted, and Promoted: Joel De La Cruz...What a quick major league experience for De La Cruz. He didn't appear in a game when he was called up with Hunter Cervenka before being not just demoted, but outrighted off the 40-man. He's been pretty decent in the early going for Gwinnett and will look to continue that.

Mississippi
Activated: Kyle Kinman...Good to see Kinman's stay on the DL was short-lived. A lefty with a lot of believers, Kinman struggled a bit out of the gate after making a late run in camp with the big league club. In his first appearance since being activated, he threw a quiet inning with a walk, but induced a double play to face the minimum.

Demoted: Danny Burawa...The former Yankees product opened camp with a chance to make the major league roster. He's not back down in Double-A, marking the fourth consecutive season he's spent time at the level. Part of his demotion was related to the numbers game, but he did little to earn more opportunities with the G-Braves. Of particular concern was the 11 walks in 7 innings.

Demoted: Madison Younginer...Signed this offseason on a minor league deal out of the BoSox organization, Younginer has not had the kind of start a player likes to have with a new team. He maintained a nearly 2 WHIP with Gwinnett before being demoted and got roughed up for three runs with Mississippi in his debut there.

Carolina
Activated: Bryton Trepagnier...A 41st rounder by the Pirates in 2010, Trepagnier signed with the Braves last year and appeared in 42 forgetful games for Mississippi last year in which he walked 44 and struck out 30. He must have a believer or two because statistically, the results simply have never really been there.

DL'd: Raymar Navarro...Signed this offseason after defecting from Cuba, Navarro's early-season numbers haven't been much to write home about (6.2 ING, 6 K, 3 BB, 4 ER).

Demoted and Promoted: Sean McLaughlin...A 19th rounder out of Georgia last June, McLaughlin briefly was taken off the roster last week. The undersized righty has had a pretty good start to his professional career with 52 K's in 49 innings to go with his 2.39 ERA. That includes stops last year with Danville and Rome and this season with the Mudcats.

Rome
Promoted: Oriel Caicedo...Caicedo has been up-and-down a few times between Rome and "Danville" since the season began. He's struck out 8 in 8.1 innings for Rome when he's been around to pick up game action. Included in his four appearances was his first professional save.

Danville
Promoted and Demoted: Michael O'Neal...Signed out of the independent leagues after he was undrafted coming out of Auburn, O'Neal briefly was on the Carolina roster last week. He appeared in two games and gave up a homerun over three innings. He walked two and struck out a pair. O'Neal throws in the low-90's with a two-seam fastball according to this article.

Demoted: Victor Mateo...A repeat name on this list, Mateo was just activated and had appeared in four games before being moved down to Danville as a procedural move. He probably is still with the Mississippi Braves, but is simply not "active."

Demoted: Joe Kennedy...I mentioned him last week as well. Kennedy spent three seasons in Australia getting very little work before an eight start run with Melbourne last year. The lefty appeared in four games with Rome with pretty poor results.

Demoted: Rob Wooten...Yep, Danville's pretty much a place the Braves stash arms until they need them. Wooten is a veteran of 71 major league games before this season and had appeared in five games with Gwinnett before being "demoted."

GCL Braves
No moves.

DSL Braves
No moves.