2016 Player Reviews: Vizcaino, Whalen, Winkler, Wisler, Withrow

I started this series on October 3 and it has finally reached its conclusion. Welcome to the final edition of 2016 Player Reviews, brought to you by stubbornness and procrastination. I was going to do two more posts, but remembered that the Braves did me a solid by dropping Ryan Weber so I only had five players left to review and decided to supersize things so I can move on to other pressing concerns. Thanks to everyone for reading and sharing on social media along the way.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Arodys Vizcaino, RHP, 26 years-old

2016 Review: It was the tell of two seasons for Vizzy. After taking over as the full-time closer following a brief time-share with Jason Grilli, Vizcaino was absolutely lights-out through 34 games. In 32.2 innings, he struck out 45 compared to 15 walks. While the Braves rarely needed a prototypical closer in the first half, Vizzy nailed down ten saves along the way. But, over his next five games, he surrendered eight runs (five earned) and walked five compared to just two strikeouts. He hit the DL with an oblique strain after being used in a blowout against the Rockies in which his heater averaged a season-low 91.7 mph. A month later, he returned, but was ineffective over four games before being placed back on the DL with shoulder inflammation. The Braves had hoped he would return in September, but he never made it back.

2017 Projection: The expectation is that Vizcaino will be good-to-go by spring training after taking the winter off. If Vizzy comes back ready to fly, it'll be interesting to see what version of Vizzy we receive. Obviously, the injuries were an issue, but his groundball rate shot up 19% last year from where it was in 2015. Was it better control that made his fastball induce a higher frequency of grounders? Was it the Roger McDowell-effect? It'll be something to watch in 2017 provided Vizcaino returns to form and, if he does, the Braves will have yet another weapon in a pen that is shaping up to be a strength for the Atlanta Braves.

Robert Whalen, RHP, 23 years-old

2016 Review: It was a bit surprising to see Whalen ascend to the big leagues in 2016. It's not that he wasn't a prospect, but he carried just a fringy prospect grade in a system filled with higher-end prospects and when 2016 began, Whalen had yet to throw a pitch above A-ball. The Braves were able to uncover some strikeout potential that he hadn't shown since rookie ball in 2013 and Whalen K'd 22.2% of Southern League batters that he faced over 18 starts. He also carried a 3.19 FIP while doing it. He received a promotion to Gwinnett, where he looked brilliant over a trio of starts. In August, he joined the big league club. He had a pair of quality starts mixed in, but also looked a good deal like a rookie pitcher. His season came to a close on August 25 with shoulder fatigue. He had thrown a total of 144.2 innings - nearly 50 innings more than the previous season when he tossed a career-best 96.2 innings. It should also be noted that Whalen had offseason surgery on both of his knees last winter, which allowed him to pitch without pain for the first time in a few years.

2017 Projection: Whalen won't stand out compared to some of the other prospects the Braves throw at you. He has below-average velocity and works off his four-seamer while utilizing his slider against lefties and his sinker versus righties. He also has a change-up and curveball. Whalen definitely punched his ticket for an extended look this spring and might have some value as a long reliever who can be tough on righties with a sinker that is both difficult to connect on and elevate when you do. However, I see him heading back to a very deep Gwinnett pitching staff where he can try to show the Braves (and potential suitors) that his success in 2016 was a sign of bigger and better things to come for the former Mets farmhand.

Daniel Winkler, RHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: In a first half of low points for the Braves, few were more depressing than what happened on an April afternoon when Winkler, on a 1-2 count, fractured his elbow on a pitch to the Cardinals' Randal Grichuk. Winkler, who had missed most of 2015 after recovering from Tommy John surgery, had been an early season bright spot for the Braves. He had allowed just one of the eight batters he had faced to reach and that came on a walk. He also had four K's and was throwing his 92 mph fastball, 88 mph cutter, and 81 mph slider with confidence. For a brief moment, it looked like he might be a hidden gem in 2016.

2017 Projection: If there was any measure of good news related to Winkler's injury, he (and Braves fans) took solace in the fact that there was no ligament damage. He's unlikely to pitch this winter, but should be on schedule to try again this spring to get his major league career going. He is still a Rule 5 player who will have to be kept to begin the year or waived and offered back to the Rockies. At this point, we know he has an electric arm, but there have been questions about his pitching motion to begin with. He'll be a good story this spring if he's able to recapture his previous form.

From the Fort Bragg luncheon. By Sgt. anthony hewitt
[Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

Matt Wisler, RHP, 24 years-old

2016 Review: There was a lot of hope attached to Wisler after he finished 2015 with a 2.21 ERA and 26 strikeouts over his final 36.2 innings. He had a few rough starts early on, but finished this May with a 3.16 ERA and 48 K's over his first 68.1 innings. However, the wheels came off after that. Over his next ten starts, he had a 7.71 ERA before a demotion to Gwinnett took Wisler out of the picture. After four starts in the minors, Wisler was back in the majors to finish the season and we saw Good Wisler (career-high 10 K's against the Padres) and Bad Wisler (six runs given up in his next start).

2017 Projection: So far, Wisler has not shown the ability to command the strikezone and fool hitters. While he won't walk many batters, he's getting 1.5% less swinging strikes than the average. He's also a shade below-average in first-pitch strikes. This is despite inducing more swings than average and even a bit more contact than average. He still has a lot of potential to be a middle-of-the-rotation arm, but the reason the Braves signed Bartolo Colon and R.A. Dickey while bringing back Josh Collmenter is because Wisler and others have yet to prove that they belong in the majors. He'll get another shot in 2017 to shine, but things won't be any easier. Not only is there is a tougher road to securing a spot, but the competition is getting even more fierce with Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims joining the fray.

Chris Withrow, RHP, 28 years-old

2016 Review: After missing most of the last two seasons on the shelf, Chris Withrow was glad just to be back on the mound. The plus side was that, when combined with his dozen games in the minors, Withrow pitched 58 times and logged 48.2 innings of action. However, his arm wasn't nearly as electric as it was with the Dodgers when he first got to the bigs in 2013. His four-seamer was down 2 mph from when he was a top prospect and the results were a bit lacking (4.90 FIP/4.99 xFIP versus 3.57 FIP/3.03 xFIP in 2013).

2017 Projection: Unlike many of the lively arms the Braves have, Withrow doesn't have age on his side. On April Fool's Day, 2017, he'll turn 28 years-old. To put that into perspective, remember that Julio Teheran won't turn 26 until the end of January. There's a lot to like with Withrow, but a K% that was just  17.7% (down from over 30%) is not one of them. As I've said many times during this rundown of returning Braves, Withrow is in the mix. He used his final option this year, though, so how attached the Braves are to him will be tested if he struggles next spring.

Thanks for coming along for this ride.

2016 Player Reviews: Mallex Smith, Dansby Swanson, Julio Teheran

Today's player reviews is a biggy (or should I say today's trio of players are bigly important?). Three exciting players at three different junctures of their careers. One is trying to establish himself as a major league option. Another may have already done that and now, we wonder what more can he become? The other is about to be a five-year major league veteran and has given us a solid floor of what we ought to expect out of him, but could he be on the verge of a breakout season?

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017.

Mallex Smith, OF, 23 years-old

2016 Review: After finishing 2015 with a .328 wOBA at Gwinnett over 307 plate appearances, Smith seemed primed for a repeat assignment with the Braves' Triple-A squad for at least the first few months of the 2016 season. Instead, an Ender Inciarte injury during the first few games of the season opened the door for Smith. While he would later suffer his own injury which would limit him to just 80 overall games (plus some minor league postseason action), Smith showed us a few things that give us a glimpse of where he is right now as a player. One, he might be capable of an everyday assignment in center field from a defensive standpoint. We knew coming in, he had the speed, but reports were mixed whether he was maximizing the speed with proper angles. While he would later be shifted to left field, where he thrived, that was more about Inciarte's excellent play than Smith. Another thing that we learned was what we could have assumed coming in - his bat is a work in progress. He hit just .238/.316/.365 in the majors. One final thing...it's much more difficult to swipe bases in the majors. After stealing 57-of-70 bases (81%) in 2015, Smith was only successful in 16-of-24 stolen base attempts in the majors.

2017 Projection: There seems to be two schools of thought with Smith. With his speed, solid on-base skills (career .382 minor league OBP), and possibly above-average ability to play center field, he could have similar value as players like Cesar Hernandez, who accounted for 4.4 fWAR last season with a 10.6% walk rate, 17 steals, and a .294 batting average to go with a .099 isolated slugging. Yes, Hernandez is a second baseman, but that's a level from which we can project Smith tio produce at with better stolen base numbers. The other school of thought that comes up when we think about Smith is that, outside of his speed, he lacks a standout skill. He's hit .296 in the minors. While that's a great batting average, the problem is that he's going to provide an "empty" batting average because he has very little extra-base ability. Because of his lack of a standout skill at the plate, maybe Smith will max out as a platoon/4th outfielder. It's way too early to tell which option is more likely, but Smith might benefit from playing a reserve role in 2017. As it stands, the Braves have a veteran-laden outfield with Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp flanking Inciarte. Obviously, a lot can change, but at this point, I don't think Smith really pushes any of that trio for playing time. Rather, he gives the Braves depth and a defensive caddy for Kemp. Meanwhile, the Braves can get him 250 or so plate appearances in the majors to work on one real issue that we saw last year. While Smith is patient at the plate, his contact rate and swinging strike percentage both were issues. While there is an argument that those rates won't be improved by averaging about 10 plate appearances a week, I think his skillset as a reserve (pinch running, defense, situational hitting) could be too good for the Braves to pass on next season. Either way, what we see right now is a guy who brings a good deal of excitement. Can he be a full-time starter in the majors? I don't think that question is likely going to be answered in 2017, but we should be closer to a decision this time next year than we are now.

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA (Dansby Swanson takes
grounders) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Dansby Swanson, SS, 23 years-old

2016 Review: Here's some good news. The Braves now have a shortstop and won't need to bother with a veteran stop-gap for a second consecutive season. Swanson was a bit of a surprise callup toward the end of the season. After blitzing the Carolina Legaue to open 2016, Swanson had been up-and-down with Mississippi for most of the year. Yeah, he flashed some major potential, but was he ready for the majors? The Braves felt so and promoted him in mid-August. The situation never seemed too large for Swanson and he provided tremendous defense at shortstop over a 38-game cameo to end the year. I realize his UZR/150 doesn't back up the last statement, but I believe that number is soft. Swanson's production at the plate ultimately mimicked his Mississippi-levels except for one key difference. His BABIP at Mississippi was .309. With Atlanta, it was 74 points higher (.383). However, his walk rate held steady at 9% and while his strikeout percentage did climb to 23.4% after hovering around 19% with Mississippi, that's really not a worrisome mark in a short sample size (especially with around league average contact rates). Advanced metrics of .334 wOBA and 107 wRC+ are springboards for what's to come.

2017 Projection: Now, he's not a seasoned veteran who we can expect All-Star-level performance from just yet, but he's got a chance to be pretty damn special. Swanson has just 165 games of professional experience since the Diamondbacks took his with the first overall pick in 2015 and has done nothing short of impress. While it would be easy to think about what Swanson can be become, let's focus on 2017 for the moment. The Braves treated Swanson with kid gloves last year and left him in the eighth spot in the order, but he'll probably move up to the second spot in 2017 and hit between Inciarte and Freddie Freeman, which should only help him see more fastballs (he had a 6.2 wFA last year according to PITCHf/x). I've long felt that the second spot is a perfect place for young hitters to hone their skills and Swanson profiles as a perfect #2 guy in the lineup. Swanson's early success also bought him some time if he struggles out the gate to not feel the pressure to succeed or get demoted. The Braves will - or at least, should - give him the time to play through some issues as Swanson's progress will go a long way to deciding just how close the Braves are to being a division title contender again.

Julio Teheran, RHP, 26 years-old

2016 Review: Teheran is basically becoming the Andruw Jones of pitchers. While he may never become the pitcher some projected he would become during his minor league days, that shouldn't take away from the fact that he's a very productive option. A year after struggling with his control, Teheran found it again in 2016, setting a new single-season low with a 5.4% walk rate, which represents a 3.3% decline from the previous year. His strikeouts have remained steady in the 21% range as a major leaguer and Teheran continues to surrender his fair share of homeruns, though the rate is an acceptable 1-in-10 flyballs that turn into homers. He's lost a tick in average velocity, though still has the ability to hit close to 96 mph with his fourseamer and 94 mph with his sinker. Overall, his 2016 was much like his 2013-14 in performance and that's a pretty good thing. Beyond control, possibly one thing that led to Teheran's resurgence this year was that he once again wasn't completely inept against left-handers, who owned him in 2015.

2017 Projection: One of the stories of camp will be if new pitching coach Chuck Hernandez, along with other the new pitching instructors the Braves have added, are able to unlock some potential in Teheran that we haven't seen. We all know Roger McDowell preached working the knee-high strike on the corners. Will Hernandez and company push Teheran to be more aggressive? Consider that Teheran worked the entire strikezone against right-handed batters in 2013. Just as many pitches were over the inside corner as the outside corner among pitches that would have been charted as a "strikes." Last year, about a hundred more pitches were charted as "strikes" over the outside corner as there were over the inside corner. To the right, you can see a visual representation about what I am talking about. The top pic comes from 2013, Teheran's rookie season. The bottom one is last year. As you can see, while the pitching styles aren't wildly different, Teheran seemed more apt to come in to right-handed batters. While I am just just using right-handed batters because it's a bigger sample size, I should point out that left-handed batters see a reverse in that he's more likely to come in against them than he was in 2013. Now, part of all of this is due to better control, but one has to wonder what effect - if any - the new pitching braintrust will have on a guy like Teheran. Either way, we do know that Teheran will likely be, at minimum, a 3-win pitcher in 2017 and short of a big trade, will be expected to front this rotation.

2016 Player Reviews: Chaz Roe, Rio Ruiz, Shae Simmons

I see an end to this series, though it keeps getting pushed back as the Braves add players. Today, I take a look at three players who could all be on next year's opening day roster.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017.

Chaz Roe, RHP, 30 years-old

2016 Review: In early August, the Braves quietly picked up Roe from the Orioles off waivers. It was the ninth organization of Roe's career that originally began after being picked by the Rockies in the first round of the 2005 draft. His departure was a numbers game working against Roe and some poor pitching to begin with, including 7 walks in 9.2 innings. Once he got to Atlanta, he found himself over 21 games to finish the season. The Braves didn't change him much - they just gave him time and he threw more strikes.

2017 Projection: If you are looking for reasons to believe Roe can find continued success in 2017, here are a few things that might help. Roe was actually pretty decent the previous year with a FIP/xFIP of 3.86/3.78. He outperformed those marks after arriving in Atlanta with the aid of a high groundball rate (64%!) and a 1.75/2.75 combined FIP/xFIP. His BABIP was within his career norms as well. How Roe fairs after the sacking of Roger McDowell is another question because Roe fit right into McDowell's fondness for trash heap sinkerballers. He's worth a look, though he'll need to pitch well in spring to keep his job.

By Tate Nations (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Rio Ruiz, 3B, 22 years-old

2016 Review: According to Baseball Reference, Ruiz became the first Rio to ever play in the majors, which is already a cool fact. His middle name is Noble, too. I'm just padding this section because Ruiz only had a handful of games in the bigs. After a hot start to the season, Ruiz cooled off in May with Gwinnett. Ruiz was able to shake it off and flipped the switch back on toward the end of the season. In August alone, he hit .286/.375/.505 with 4 of his 10 homers. That strong finish certainly gave the Braves enough reason to believe Ruiz was ready for a cup of coffee and he played in five games in the final two weeks, going 2-for-7 with a triple, a steal, and two K's.

2017 Projection: Ruiz is ready to contribute in the majors and short of the Braves adding a full-time third baseman (or trading Ruiz), he'll be given a chance to compete for time this spring. While Adonis Garcia did a decent enough job in 2016, he is hardly a long-term option. Ruiz likely isn't either, but in all likelihood, he'll have his opportunity to impress. Ruiz hasn't flashed a lot of power in the minors and struggled against left-handers last year, but does have a patient approach at the plate with enough pop to be interesting. He's expected to be a solid defender, though not an elite one. Whether a platoon or some kind of time share develops, the duo of Ruiz/Garcia (and maybe Jace Peterson as well) should handle third base well enough in 2017.

Shae Simmons, RHP, 26 years-old

2016 Review: Starts and stops led to a long rehab from Tommy John surgery which kept Simmons off the mound very often in 2016. After missing all of the previous season following the surgery, he first got back into live action in mid-May. After three games and a setback, he returned in June for two games before again hitting the shelf. Finally, in late July, he was able to stay on the mound and even pulled his first back-to-back of the year on August 23-24. As rosters expanded for September, Simmons would appear seven times for the big league club before elbow soreness ended his season.

2017 Projection: Can he stay healthy? If the answer is yes, Simmons could be an x-factor. When he arrived on the scene in 2014, people were already comparing him to Craig Kimbrel. That's unfair, but the sink and movement on his pitches were pretty nasty. He set a new personal best this season with a 98.9 mph fastball. The slider, which snakes across the zone, comes in at about 12 mph slower. He was charted with two new pitches this season, a curve and sinker, and also throws a changeup, but how much of that is just the data not understanding the results? One thing Simmons didn't do once returning to Atlanta is force batters to miss often or strikeout. That's based on control, I feel, as he couldn't command the strikezone and, as a result, pitched himself into bad counts. The stuff is there - especially the slider. Can he command it? Can he just stay healthy? Can he be Mini Kimbrel? Positive answers to the first two questions will go a long way to answering the third.

2016 Player Reviews: Jose Ramirez, Anthony Recker, Paco Rodriguez

This is the eleventh edition of the 2016 Player Reviews. My quick math tells me that I've done 33 little blurbs about players from last year's team who could return in 2017. A dozen remain. Hopefully, next year, the Braves don't use more players than the Falcons so I don't have to do this again.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017.

Jose Ramirez, RHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: The major league season is long. From the point pitchers report to camp in February until a hopeful trip to postseason play in October, a lot can happen. For Ramirez, he was given a chance to right the ship and finished strong to keep him in Atlanta's plans for 2017. Out-of-options, Ramirez opened the year with the major league team, but after two appearances in which 9-of-15 batters faced reached base, the Braves decided they had already seen enough and banished Ramirez to the minors. It was a quick decision, but he had walked four over just two innings of work. He posted some big strikeout numbers upon his arrival in Gwinnett, but continued to walk a lot of batters as well. The Gwinnett and minor league coaches continued to work with him and over a two-month period, Ramirez walked just 8 over 25.1 innings. With the Braves' bullpen getting a trade deadline remodel, Ramirez returned to the majors near the tail-end of July. His control wasn't as pin-point as it had been in Gwinnett, but it was much improved and he logged an impressive 30.2 innings down the stretch.

2017 Projection: One change that was evident with Ramirez once he returned to the majors was that his release point was a little lower, giving him a bit more pronounced three-quarter's delivery. It also gave him better heat and the ability to throw first-pitch strikes. The Braves pushed Ramirez to nearly drop his changeup in favor of a bigger use of his hard slider. The results were solid and Ramirez will have a shot to win a spot in next year's pen. Now, there are some concerning issues with Ramirez. While he lowered his FIP to 3.94 by year's end, that was nearly a run lower than his expected FIP. Part of that was due to an unusually low amount of homeruns (5.4% per flyball). That is unlikely to continue and even though Ramirez's control was better, a 12.6% rate is still 4% above average. There are some things here to really like, but there are some problematic pitfalls to deal with as well. Ramirez will be 27 when the 2017 season opens. Power arms will always have a shot to turn the corner and Atlanta is hoping Chuck Hernandez and the new Braves pitching gurus can work some magic with Ramirez.

Anthony Recker, C, 33 years-old

2016 Review: BABIP is a fun stat. Heading into this season, Recker had a BABIP of .249. It was a testament to how bad of a hitter Recker had been. Then, over a 33-game run after getting the callup to Atlanta, Recker's BABIP jumped nearly hundred points and suddenly, he had a triple slash of .278/.394/.433. It was pretty surprising since his minor league numbers weren't nearly that impressive either. Also astounding was how he shaved 10% off his K% and re-purposed about 5% to his walk rate (not sure how one does that, but Recker's special).

2017 Projection: Okay, Recker didn't suddenly turn into a hitting God overnight. He simply did not have enough time for his numbers to regress to the mean. Expecting the now 33 year-old with a career 1.8 fWAR to have a 2016-like encore performance would be a bit much. Recker's not bad as far as depth goes, but the Braves will likely non-tender him rather than go through arbitration and offer him a return trip via a minor league contract. He may take his chances elsewhere and if he does, do not fret. If his numbers regress - and they will - you are left with an okayish backstop with poor pitch framing metrics, decent walk numbers, and a bit of pop. It's not the worst guy to stash at Triple-A, but the Braves should do better for their major league team.

By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA (Paco Rodriguez)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Paco Rodriguez, LHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: Acquired in the Alex Wood/Hector Olivera trade in July of 2015, the Braves had hoped that Rodriguez, who was rehabbing from bone spurs removal surgery at the time, would eventually play a role for the team by September that year. Instead, he would undergo Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2016 as he rehabbed from the operation.

2017 Projection: In Rodriguez, the Braves have a quality arm with already 124 games of major league experience since being picked in the second round of the 2012 draft. Righties struggle against him while lefties are a lost cause (a career split of .174/.245/.234 with 4.8 K/BB). Overall, Rodriguez had a career FIP/xFIP of 2.98/3.00 before injuries put him on the shelf. A rarity for a reliever, Rodriguez utilizes three pitches with regularity including a sinker that he can run in at about 90 mph if healthy and an 86-88 mph cutter along with an 80 mph slider. He even sprinkles in a four-seamer and circle change at times to keep righties off balance. If he's back, the Braves have a crafty lefty who can give the team more productivity than simply getting left-handed batters out. Atlanta might try to baby him, especially early on, and try to avoid back-to-back's, but provided he's good to go in 2017, he'll be an integral part to the revamped and improved 2017 Atlanta bullpen.

See Also
Transaction Tuesday: Recker, Adonis, Minter, Yepez
Reviewing Hart's Trades: The Hector Olivera Leap of Faith
What Can the Braves Learn from the Cubs?

2016 Player Reviews: Williams Perez, Jace Peterson, A.J. Pierzynski

The World Series is over and free agency is just about to hit in earnest and I'm still trying to finish off these reviews. Hey, progress is progress, right?

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

Williams Perez, RHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: For the second consecutive year, Perez was in the mix, but injuries limited him to just 84 innings overall. In some ways, that was 84 too many. While he threw a little less than half of the major league innings he threw in 2015, Perez was essentially the same pitcher as far as FIP goes. He was a bit unlucky (58% LOB%) which contributed to an ERA over 6. We also saw Perez change up his pitch selection this season and utilize a four-seamer to keep batters from keying in on his sinker too much.

2017 Projection: The problem for Perez is not new. It has followed him throughout his young career. We know he can throw strikes and induce his fair share of groundballs, but does he have the ability to get the ball past hitters? In the majors, the answer seems to be no. Roughly 10% of all pitches thrown toward hitters become swinging strikes. For Perez, that mark is about 6%. To put that in perspective - over the last two seasons, only six pitchers have 150 innings in the majors and a worse swinging strike percentage. That's not enough to keep a pitcher from being successful, but it certainly doesn't make things any easier. Pitching to contact is not a terrible strategy, especially for a sinker baller, but major league hitters are much better at pounding mistakes than minor league hitters. Perez is a decent depth guy, but short of developing a plus pitch that he can get whiffs on, his value should be limited to emergency starts when he makes the short trip over from Gwinnett.

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Jace Peterson, 2B, 26 years-old

2016 Review: Year 2 of #JaceOnBase saw Peterson reach base at a much higher rate (.350 to .314) with the help of an improved walk rate (+3.4% compared to 2015). While that pushed Jace's numbers up a bit, he still lagged well behind the major league average for second basemen. It's worth mentioning that his full-season stats include an awful start that prompted the Braves to demote him to Gwinnett after 21 games in which Peterson slashed .182/.260/.205. After returning, Peterson slashed .265/.362/.389 over the remaining 94 games. That's definitely something to build upon. Expected to have a future role as a plus utility player, Peterson picked up a start at third and one in center field - along with nearly a dozen in left field. After solid, though unspectacular, defensive metrics in 2015, Peterson's numbers at second looked pretty ugly. I tend to believe that is more statistical variation than actual performance and I'm comfortable saying that Jace is an average defender at second. Nothing special, but likely not a defensive issue to concern yourself with.

2017 Projection: Peterson is a fine stopgap at second base, especially if the Braves bring in someone to protect Peterson from seeing too many southpaws. Against lefties, Peterson has hit a miserable .214/.269/.268 with just one of his career 13 homeruns. Paired with a better option than Gordon Beckham or Chase d'Arnaud, Peterson could keep second base warm until Ozzie Albies arrives in the majors. The Braves could certainly do better than Peterson, but with Albies hopefully on his way to Atlanta sometime next summer, is it worth the effort to try to improve second base? Probably not, though, like I said, a better platoon partner would be helpful.

A.J. Pierzynski, C, 40-years old

2016 Review: That fountain of youth he found in 2015 dried up in 2016 and the fall from grace was epic. A year after slashing .300/.339/.430, Pierzynski struggled to the tune of .219/.243/.304. He went from a 111 wRC+ to a 41. His wOBA fell nearly 80 points. Eventually, the Braves moved onto Tyler Flowers full-time before sending Pierzynski to the DL. He returned briefly in September, but again hit the DL to end the season.

2017 Projection: Is there much to project? Will he officially retire? He'll have a tough time finding a team at the age of 40 that's interested in a catcher who couldn't even on-base his weight last year. The Braves certainly won't be too keen on a reunion so it would seem to be time for Pierzysnki and the $64 million and change he has earned over his career to head home.

2016 Player Reviews: Matt Marksberry, Andrew McKirahan, Eric O'Flaherty

It's Southpaw central today here at Walk-Off Walk as three lefties are up next in the 2016 Player Review series. Amazingly, there are still six sets of players left to review. Jeez, the Braves used too many players in 2016.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

Matt Marksberry, LHP, 26 years-old

2016 Review: First off, it's great to know that Marksberry seems out of the woods as far as his health scare goes. Just over a week ago, a story broke in which Marksberry was on life support with a collapsed lung. Twitter can be a very useful social media tool, but it can quickly muddle the facts in a developing situation. Marksberry did have a health emergency as he was critically dehydrated with a sodium level that plummeted so low that Marksberry had a seizure. He is much improved now so we can look more at the baseball side of things. A year after appearing in 31 games for the Braves bullpen, Marksberry failed to impress last spring and actually opened the year with Mississippi. After a quick promotion, he received his longest run with any team in 2016 after joining Gwinnett, appearing in 28 games. Marksberry's ERA was nice and tidy, but he was a bit too prone to work his way into trouble via the walk. Before his season came to a close in late July with shoulder issues, Marksberry appeared in four games with the big league club and had little success.

2017 Projection: Marksberry has a nice following on Twitter and is very approachable as a genuine and likable guy. But results are what keep players in the majors and the results really aren't there to this point for the now 26 year-old. He could have a future as a left-hand specialist as a major league split of .172/.273/.310 indicates when he has the platoon advantage. That includes a nearly 23% strikeout rate, but I should also mention that this includes  a short-sample size (66 total batters faced) and .214 BABIP. That's not to say that it's all flukish - only that it should give one pause when it comes to projecting continued success for Marksberry. The shoulder concerns in 2016 certainly are worrisome as well. For their part, the Braves designated Marksberry for assignment and outrighted him to Mississippi following the season. He'll be in the mix come spring provided he's able and with everything he went through, he'll certainly be a fan favorite. With Ian Krol and Paco Rodriguez potentially in the fold, for the first time in awhile, the bullpen doesn't look like a revolving door of arms especially from the lefthand side. That said, after the last couple of weeks Marksberry has had, it's hard not to root for him to be on the roster when the 2017 season kicks off.

Andrew McKirahan, LHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: Not much to speak of after the lefty was removed after one appearance and just five pitches this spring and later diagnosed with a torn UCL. It was the second time the lefty underwent Tommy John surgery after missing most of the 2012 season because of the same operation. After spending the year on the 60-day DL, McKirahan was, like Marksberry, outrighted to Mississippi after the season ended.

2017 Projection: I was a big fan of McKirahan before the 2014 Rule 5 draft, where the Marlins selected him from the Cubs' organization. After he failed to stick with Miami, the Braves got him off waivers as the 2015 season was beginning. A PED suspension limited McKirahan to just 27 games in 2015 and the results were pretty ugly. When healthy, McKirahan flashes some extreme groundball ability with a fourseam fastball and sinker combo (though he rarely throws the sinker) along with a slider that drops down. His big issue, though, is that he has only one pitch that he can induce some whiffs on - the slider. However, for it to be effective, he has to pitch ahead and his hard stuff gets smacked around pretty good. He has some impressive numbers in the minors and unlike Marksberry, McKirahan has good control. But does he have the stuff to pitch at this level? We'll get a shot to find out in 2017 if he's healthy.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Originally posted to Flickr as "Eric
O'Flaherty") [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Eric O'Flaherty, LHP, 32 years-old

2016 Review: Ugly. That's how one might describe O'Flaherty's season. Picked up right before the season after he failed to impress the Pirates, O'Flaherty returned to the team where he became a tremendous asset for five seasons. However, he wasn't that guy anymore. His sinker has lost bite, his slider is too straight, and he's lost a tick or two with his heater. As the season progressed, it became clear that what we were watching wasn't the O'Flaherty we remembered so fondly. In August, he hit the DL with an elbow injury and later underwent surgery to fix the issue.

2017 Projection: While O'Flaherty is likely moving forward in his rehab and should be ready, provided there are no setbacks, to pitch this spring, it seems unlikely it will be for the Braves. While the depth at left-hand relief is one reason, O'Flaherty has a 5.49 ERA in 120 games since the start of 2013. Even if O'Flaherty has a clean bill of health, it would be a surprise to see him succeed in the majors again.

2016 Player Reviews: Ian Krol, Blake Lalli, Nick Markakis

Well, I had hoped to get this series finished before the end of the playoffs. Apparently, small goals like that are a bit too much. Hopefully, after the last few weeks I've had, I can schedule some writing as we transition into November so that I am getting back to a regular gig. With that in mind, let's get back on these player reviews before more of these players get traded or released.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

Ian Krol, LHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: Krol looked lost in spring training and wasn't all that impressive to begin the year at Gwinnett. But the fun thing about the MLB season is that it lasts six months and that gave Krol plenty of time to round into form. He arrived in the majors a week into May and gave the Braves a competent lefthander out of the pen. It was a bit of a Mike Remlinger Effect as his numbers were a bit better against right-handers than they were against the lefties (though a .381 BABIP vs. lefties could explain that). A deeper look shows a much better walk rate (5% lower) against lefthanders and a HR/9 rate that was cut in half when he had the platoon advantage. That gives me reason to believe that even if the triple slashes say otherwise, he was better against the lefties. However, the numbers against righthanders could be a sign that Krol is much more than just a LOOGY.

2017 Projection: A change that Krol has adopted over the last two years was to nearly scrape his 12-6 curveball in favor of a power slider. The pitch is much more effective against righties, but it's quite deadly against lefties as well. In addition to developing his slider, he's cut down on his fourseamer usage in favor of a two-seam sinker - especially against right-handed batters. The latter replaced his changeup, which was a pitch meant to keep righties off balanced, but it never flashed much plus potential. Now, with better repertoire, he is able to induce a slew of soft grounders that turn into easy outs. Krol's success was not smoke-and-mirrors. Rather, it was progression, development, and execution. Provided that continues into 2017, he's got a great chance to pair with a hopefully healthy Paco Rodriguez to give the Braves a duo of difficult southpaws for the opposition to deal with.

Blake Lalli, 33 years-old, C/1B/Emergency Pitcher

2016 Review: Lalli began his second decade in professional baseball by joining the Braves organization. The former Cubs, A's, Brewers, and Diamondbacks farmhand did what he always does - play a little catcher, play some first, not embarrass himself at the plate, and pitch when need be. In fact, Lalli pitched three times for Gwinnett this year and that's not even a career high in pitching appearances. He's been used on the mound in all but three of his professional seasons and has pitched 23 times in total. And you thought the whole Jeff Francoeur on the mound thing was cute.

2017 Projection: Re-signed to a minor league deal, Lalli is "just a guy." He's hit double digit homeruns just twice in his career and long ago shed his appeal as a hitting option behind the plate. He received a cameo for a bad Braves team and went just 2-for-13 with a double. That extra base hit was the first of his major league career (all 32 games of it). The Braves like him enough to keep him around, which means he's likely a good clubhouse guy. All in all, if the Braves are using Lalli for more than a few days in 2017, there are some depth issues that need to be dealt with.

Nick Markakis, RF, 32 years-old

2016 Review: There was both good and bad to "Neck's" 2016 campaign. On one hand, the ISO (.129) was a four-year high while his walk rate, which climbed to double digits in 2015, sustained through a second campaign. On the other hand, he was less productive despite hitting ten more homeruns. It wasn't a colossal fall, but his wOBA and wRC+ both declined. Now, a .300 BABIP didn't help and that's 16 points less than his career, but it's worth mentioning that his 2015 BABIP of .338 was probably a bit too high as well. Somewhere in the middle, the BABIP normalizes and you get the Braves version of Markakis who has slashed .282/.358/.386 as a Brave.

2017 Projection: Two things to keep in mind regarding the slash I just gave you. The OBP matches his nine-year run as an Oriole and is an above-average mark. The other thing that stands out becomes clear when you compare Markakis's final four years with the Orioles against his first two seasons as a Brave. His slash for those years was .281/.345/.399. Expecting much more improvement in regards to Markakis seems like a stretch. Yes, his neck seems better and his hard-hit rate improved noticeably (+7%) while his groundball rate plummeted back toward (and under) his career average after ballooning to 52% last year. He continues to show a great understanding of the strikezone and rarely whiffs. That leaves us with this version of Markakis, who is due $22 million over the next two years. He's a fine complimentary player who won't embarrass you, but he also won't make you much better. It's no surprise that the Braves are entertaining the idea of trading Markakis as they look toward improving in 2017.

Hopefully, I'll be back this weekend with another set. Thanks for reading and share liberally.

2016 Player Reviews: Jim Johnson, Casey Kelly, Matt Kemp

The Braves have already signed their first free agent, which means it's a good time to unveil this year's minor league free agent portal. As I did last year, I will try to track down all offseason minor league free agent signings and, in many cases, provide some analysis. Last year's crop of players included Jhoulys Chacin, Chase d'Arnaud, and even Blake Lalli - who rejoined the Braves yesterday after briefly becoming a free agent. One new thing for this year's list is that I will try to add in those players that have left the system.

Let's get to today's player reviews. Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Jim Johnson, RHP, 33 years-old

2016 Review: For all the criticisms that rightly and unjustly have been attributed to Roger McDowell, one thing that cannot be ignored is the magic he could do with veterans like Johnson. After returning to the Braves, where he looked effective in 2015 before a midseason move to the Dodgers, Johnson arguably had his best season. Granted, 20 saves doesn't look as fancy as back-to-back 50-save years, but he set new career-best totals for strikeout percentage (26%) and FIP (2.71). He also lowered his HR/FB rate under 10% for the first time in four years. He continued to practically scrap his changeup in favor of a four-seamer to keep batters off-balance from keying in on his sinker. One big change in pitch-selection this year was that he began to use his curveball nearly 25% of the time, an increase of about 10% over his career. None of his pitches generate more whiffs per swing, which is a big reason for such an increase in strikeouts.

2017 Projection: Can he repeat his success without McDowell? The Braves put a $10 million bet on that happening when they extended his contract through 2018 and why not? He has been given a base from which to excel regardless of the pitching coach. 2017 and 2018 will be his Age-34 and Age-35 years so regression is certainly possible - though Johnson has been remarkably durable with 60 or more games in five-of-the-last-six seasons with only one trip to the DL since 2011 (non-arm related). The Braves have done well to keep Johnson in the fold and Johnson surely has enjoyed his career resurgence in Atlanta.

Casey Kelly, RHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: Acquired last December for Christian Bethancourt, Kelly was part of a trio of pitchers - along with Ryan Weber and John Gant - who seemed to handle the role of long-man out of the pen. Once they threw a few innings in a game, they'd cycle back to Gwinnett in exchange for a fresher arm and rinse-and-repeat. Kelly was optioned to the minors four different times during the season While in the minors, he received the first extended look at Triple-A during his eight-year career. It was fairly meh (stats term) as far as results go. His 3.53 ERA was helped by a .266 BABIP. His major league results over 21.2 innings were pretty ugly as his inability to get many swings-and-misses becomes a real problem against major league batters.

2017 Projection: It's been three years since Kelly last showed up on Top 100 prospect lists and at his age, he won't again be in contention for a spot. Kelly's problem is that after a 2013 Tommy John surgery, his strikeout numbers have never rebounded and his control has gone from merely good rather than impeccable as it was when he climbed the minor league ladder. That's not to say all hope is lost, but Kelly is a guy who throws 90 mph, gets a decent amount of groundballs, and doesn't have the stuff to bear down and get strikeouts when needed. Those type of pitchers are a dime a dozen. While Kelly still has an option left and provides depth, he needs to develop an out-pitch and quickly to start ascending the depth chart rather than get passed by higher-ceiling prospects as they mature.

Matt Kemp, LF, 32 years-old

2016 Review: While the trade of Hector Olivera to the Padres in exchange for Kemp was all about saving face, it turned into a game-changer for an offense without much power. Despite playing for the Braves for just two months, Kemp finished fourth on the team in homeruns with a dozen dingers. The big finish gave him 35 homeruns overall - his best single-season total since 39 to lead the NL in 2011. All in all, he hit .280/.336/.519 as a Brave. Included in this offensive improvement was a 5% increase in walk rate from his time with the Padres. While it's a far cry from the Dodger All-Star years, a 120 wRC+ and .354 wOBA as a Brave is nothing to scoff at.

2017 Projection: At just 32, Kemp likely has some more productive years left in him. We'll get to his issues in a second, but dive into his ratios at the plate and you see one positive common theme - nothing he did during two months with the Braves was out-of-character for him compared to other times in his career. That's not to say he can sustain that production over a full season, but he was essentially playing to his career averages in wRC+ and wOBA. That's promising and if he's able to get in better shape, as both the team and Kemp have indicated he needs to do, there is a pretty good chance that Kemp can be an asset at the plate. In the field, that's another question. The Padres moved him away from center field - which badly needed to happen - and now the Braves are counting on him in left. Despite a less physically taxing position, the results were miserable and you would be hard pressed to find an outfielder with worse defensive metrics than Kemp since 2014. In fact, it's not even close. Kemp owns a -20.5 UZR/150 over the last three years. Dayan Viciedo (who hasn't played in the majors for two years) and Shin-Soo Choo are the only outfielders with more than -9 UZR/150 and neither come close to Kemp. This a real problem and not just a stat nerd one. If Kemp cannot improve his defense from epically bad to fairly bad (yes, that's the scale I'm using here), his value is considerably muted. You can't hide a player like Kemp in the NL and that's why the Braves traded Evan Gattis. For the time being, they are saddled with Kemp moving forward. Here's hoping his defense improves just a bit more because the bat has a chance to be a big asset for a Braves team that could make some noise for a playoff spot in 2017.

2016 Player Reviews: Jason Hursh, Ender Inciarte, Tyrell Jenkins

With today's three in the bank, I am still not even half-way through this series, but progress is progress, right? There are a lot of players still in the mix for hypothetical spots on the 2017 roster, though as we shift toward the offseason and a plethora of moves the Braves make to try to get better next year, open slots on next year's roster will be harder to come by. Today's trio has one definite member of next year's roster in the mix - provided he's not traded. Two others could battle for a bullpen spot.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

By Tate Nations (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

 Jason Hursh, RHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: For the first time in his career, Hursh did not get a starting assignment during the season. His move to the pen actually began in 2015 when he was shifted from the starting rotation after struggling badly during a second run in Mississippi. Overall, there is not much of a difference between Hursh the Starter and Hursh the Reliever except for one thing. He induced a ridiculous amount of groundballs when coming out of the pen. He's always been a groundball pitcher, but he went from a 1.6 groundball/flyball rate to 2.5 this season. According to this article from Fangraphs, that's comparable to a 55%-60% rate. Somewhere, Bobby Cox just had dreams of Kevin Gryboski. Hursh got a look in the bigs in August, though the results were pretty ugly (in a extra-petite sample size). He finished up the season with Gwinnett with mixed results.

2017 Projection: I kid about the Gryboski comparison, but Hursh is that kind of pitcher that a manager might be tempted to utilize in "rally-killing" situations. The problem with that idea is that Hursh has very little margin for error. He won't get many strikeouts (5.5-6.5 K/9) and isn't pinpoint enough with his control to make that work for him. Hursh could provide better value to the Braves if a team sees more in him than the Braves and is willing to take Hursh in a trade. If he returns in 2017, he'll be part of a large group of pitchers trying to get a look in the spring. A trip to Gwinnett seems most likely if he's not dealt beforehand.

Ender Inciarte, OF, 26 years-old

2016 Review: It was the tale of two different seasons for Inciarte. Through his first 56 games (which includes a trip to the DL), Inciarte was hitting an abysmal .226/.293/.304. He had been relegated to the bottom of the order and it looked like it would be a lost year for the former D'Back. Instead, Inciarte righted the ship beginning on July 8. Over his final 75 games, he slashed .338/.392/.436. Until the last weekend, he didn't go back-to-back games without a hit. Back in the leadoff spot, Inciarte was integral to the offense's resurgence in the second half. While his bat failed to impress early, his defense was a full-season marvel. Briefly, he was utilized in left field, but quickly, Brian Snitker realized that was a waste of Inciarte's impressive talents. He finished the season with 13 DRS, the third best total in the majors. For the first time since Michael Bourn left via free agency after 2012, the Braves had a plus-plus defender in center field.

2017 Projection: Let's be clear...the Inciarte of the final 75 games is not a true reflection of his skill level, but a regression to the mean. We have two extreme samples of Inciarte in 2016 and the overall performance level is closer to the final numbers (.291/.351/.381) than either of the extremes. That stat line isn't too far removed from his 2015 campaign with the D'Backs. He did show some improvement with a slight climb in walk rate to nearly 8% after hovering around 5% with Arizona. What is more impressive is the improvement against lefthanders. While it deserves to be mentioned that his .355 BABIP against lefties indicates an artificially high triple slash, Inciarte still reached .319/.365/.384 - a far cry from the .288 OBP he had against southpaws before coming to Atlanta. It would be easy to suggest - especially with Mallex Smith also in the fold - that the Braves could shop Inciarte this winter. Certainly, they could, but they shouldn't sell him short. He now has 381 major league games under his belt and a 9.5 fWAR to show for it. While his numbers may never wow you, his overall value to a team is easy to see and difficult to replicate.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, 24 years-old

2016 Review: Another mixed bag, Jenkins made it to the majors this year nearly six years after being selected the 50th overall pick of the 2010 draft. In addition, his callup came just a few weeks after Jenkins was shifted to the bullpen. At that time, I felt it was the right move as I am not a big believer that Jenkins' best value comes in the starting rotation. However, with the starting staff's depth issues in 2016, the Braves moved Jenkins into the starting rotation to make his first big league start on July 6. He would make seven more starts through August 20. Jenkins had a nice run in there (3 starts, 18 innings, two earned runs allowed), but his last two starts sent his ERA skyrocketing to 6.20 when he was demoted. He appeared twice in September in the majors and ended the year with 52 innings pitched, more walks than strikeouts, and nearly a dozen homers surrendered. His minor league numbers were better, but nothing to write home about outside of 2.47 ERA matched with a 3.61 FIP.

2017 Projection: When he was acquired by the Braves, Jenkins was a top pitching prospect in a system that didn't have many to speak of. Now, he's lost in the crowd. There has always been a bit of disconnect between the potential pitcher Jenkins could become and the pitcher Jenkins has a better chance of being. He won't be 25 until next July, but progression has been lacking to this point. He did reach 120 innings for back-to-back years - something he never did with the Cards. Nevertheless, Jenkins will need considerable refinement to be a serious starting pitcher possibility for the Braves moving forward. A best-case scenario could see Jenkins developing into a Derek Lowe-type where he induces a lot of grounders and logs innings. I feel a more likely option is that Jenkins grows into a Cristhian Martinez type of reliever who can give you a few innings in mostly low-leverage opportunities. While that role has some value, it's a far cry from the hope the Braves and their fans had when he was acquired from the Cardinals nearly two years ago.

See more player reviews.

2016 Player Reviews: Freddie Freeman, John Gant, Adonis Garcia

Welcome back to another edition of 2016 Player Reviews. Today's a biggy with a franchise cornerstone, a righty with a funky delivery, and one of the biggest surprises of 2016. Thanks for bearing with me as I look at these players and take stock in their contributions this season. With still over 30 to go, I hope to complete this series in the next couple of weeks.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

Freddie Freeman, 1B, 27 years-old

Keith Allison via Flickr
Creative Commons

2016 Review: Remember when people used to say, "sure, Freddie's good and all, but he's not one of the best at his position?" Yeah, about that...Freeman only hit .302/.400/.569. Want more advanced metrics? Freeman posted a .402 wOBA with a 152 wRC+. His .267 ISO was seventy points higher than his previous career-best while he eclipsed 6 fWAR for the first time in his career. His homerun total breezed past 30 in no small part because he finished with a flyball rate higher than his groundball rate for the first time. And about how he compares to the league - Freeman's 6.1 fWAR was nearly a full run higher than the next major league first baseman and one of the ten best WAR totals according to Fangraphs in 2016. It was the kind of season John Hart - and yes, Frank Wren - envisioned when they extended Freeman for $135 million less than three years ago. His overall numbers are even more impressive when you remember that his OPS  was in the .750s through 60 games. Back then, fans and media types alike wondered if his wrist troubles from 2015 would limit the effectiveness of Freeman moving forward. Now, they wonder how much better Freeman can be in 2017 and beyond.

2017 Projection: Here's the good news - at just 27, Freeman is entering his prime. There is no reason to believe that Freeman can't be even better in 2017, though even a slight fallback campaign would still be plenty good. One of the many bright spots in Freeman's numbers was an OPS of .901 against left-handed pitchers. Freeman had been fairly limited against southpaws in his career with weak isolated slugging numbers against them, but that wasn't the case in 2016. Freeman is a franchise cornerstone and there no longer exists reasons to doubt that.

John Gant, RHP, 24 years-old

2016 Review: Let's just say that Gant is more than a funky delivery. Out of necessity more than anything, he made the roster to open the year despite having just 100 innings of experience above A-ball (all at Double A). Over six different stints with the club (including a trip to the DL), Gant logged an even 50 innings in the majors. He was about a league-average arm - which really isn't that bad of a thing to say about a guy getting his first taste of the majors. He walked a few too many and homeruns allowed were a little much, but the strikeout total was solid (8.8 per nine). His favorite pitch was the split-fingered fastball, which he delivered about 60% of the time. The remaining 40% was split pretty evenly between his curveball and changeup.

2017 Projection: Gant was not the higher-rated prospect of the duo of righties the Braves got from the Mets for Kelly Johnson in the summer of 2015. While he did beat Robert Whalen to the bigs, I still like Whalen's chances of sticking more. Gant does everything he can - including his delivery - to keep hitters off balance and his split-fingered heater has some decent getty-up on it. This surprises me, but he's never really been a high groundball pitcher despite a splitter/slider combo that hitters like to beat into the ground. If he could improve that, Gant could carve out a nice role in the majors as a low-end starter/long reliever. As for just next season, Gant is in the mix, but will need a big camp to make the Braves for a second straight opening day.

Adonis Garcia, 3B, 31 years-old

2016 Review: What a strange season Garcia had. After an exciting summer callup the previous year, Garcia won the lionshare of time at 3B to begin 2016. He struggled both in the field and at the plate and was banished to the minors for most of May before a return as the Braves sought offense. While the Braves flirted with the idea of moving Garcia back to left field, he settled back into the third base spot and improved his numbers dramatically. At the plate, there was both good-and-bad. He provided some power for what was, at times, a punchless lineup. His negatives, though, included weak on-base numbers (.311) and while he did hit 14 homeruns, his ISO was a mere .133 (or about 90 pounds below his 2015 run).

2017 Projection: Garcia is a mixed bag. The Braves are probably asking too much from him to be an everyday starter. Sure, when he's hot, like he was during July when he slashed .337/.370/.537, it's difficult to get him out of the lineup. He's a good enough hitter to avoid long stretches of disappearing, but not good enough to provide enough offensive talent at the plate. His defense was definitely improved after a trip to the minors and he's competent at the position. The Braves seem unlikely to splurge for a third baseman to take over the position full time, but Garcia could still lose playing time to the rookie, Rio Ruiz. A left-handed hitter, Ruiz could be protected a bit by Garcia, who has slashed .310/.357/.472 in 213 career PA against southpaws in the majors. If Ruiz needs more time, Garcia could be partnered up with a different platoon partner (perhaps Jace Peterson) or handed third to open 2017, though that's not ideal. Either way, the Braves are getting their money's worth and then some with Garcia.

2016 Player Reviews: Joel De La Cruz, Tyler Flowers, Mike Foltynewicz

Hope all of you are surviving the effects of Matthew as it climbs the coast. In central Virginia, it's been rain and a lot of it. Nothing like rainy weather to push you to write some more so let's dive back into the next set of players in the Player Review series. One of the players has already moved on as Jed Bradley, who I wrote about a few days ago, is headed to Baltimore via waivers.

Before I forget, I have updated my options page, which you can view here. Also, feel free to check out the last article in this series or click here for all of the articles in one central place.

*All ages are as of opening day, 2017.

Joel De La Cruz, RHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: A minor league free agent out of the Yankees' organization, De La Cruz was a veteran of eight minor league season (plus two lost years) before coming to the Braves. His numbers with Gwinnett were pedestrian (4.28 FIP, 1.8 K/BB) and that included two major league promotions. Both times, De La Cruz didn't get into a game. However, with the starting rotation reeling (and Bud Norris soon to be traded), the Braves brought De La Cruz up to stay in late June. Over 22 games, including nine starts, De La Cruz was a bit worse than his Gwinnett numbers (5.19 FIP, 1.7 K/BB) and gave up his fair share of homeruns.

2017 Projection: De La Cruz is one of those guys who might get less of a look now that Roger McDowell has moved on. A three-pitch pitcher, De La Cruz relied heavily on his sinker and though his GB% rate in the majors wasn't very high, it was his M.O. in the minors (1.9 GB/FB rate). The next pitching coach might not stressed sinkers as much as McDowell did, which could make De La Cruz a bit less attractive as a guy to bring back in 2017. Beyond that, he turns 28 next June and this system is deep in options that are more intriguing than De La Cruz. So, with all of that in mind, it wasn't surprising to see De La Cruz outrighted to Gwinnett on Friday. He could be brought back out of familiarity, but again, the Braves might not be that interested anymore.

By Editosaurus (Own work) [CC0], via
Wikimedia Commons

Tyler Flowers, C, 31 years-old

2016 Review: This season was so weird for Flowers, who came back to the organization that originally drafted him in '06 last offseason. His .338 wOBA was a career best by 20 points. His triple slash of .270/.357/.420 made him a leader on this offense, especially before the arrivals of Matt Kemp and Dansby Swanson. According to Statcorner, Flowers finished fourth in the majors in pitch framing and would have ranked higher had he not missed time on the DL and shared too much time with A.J. Pierzynski. But...there was that weird caught stealing metric. Flowers was never gifted at nailing potential basestealers. His career-best rate was 33% and he's been around the league average during his career. Until this year. When he caught just three of 63 potential thieves. The other two catchers, Pierzynski and Anthony Recker, weren't great at catching baserunners either, but both looked much better in comparison to Flowers. By all accounts, Flowers wasn't dealing with shoulder issues that should have led to this problem so either it was mental or mechanical.

2017 Projection: Provided the former ChiSox can get his throwing issues behind the plate resolved and produces at the plate again, he'll be a good option for the Braves in 2017 in at least a platoon role. He actually doesn't have a dominant platoon advantage one way or the other, but if the Braves found a left-handed hitting catcher, Flowers could spell the new addition against southpaws. As a starter, he's a stopgap and if he hits like he did in 2016, he's a fairly effective stopgap at just $3M for next season. The Braves will shop for a better option behind the plate, but if it doesn't materialize, Flowers is a decent enough fallback.

Mike Foltynewicz, RHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: This season certainly didn't begin the way Foltynewicz would have liked. After a pair of ailments set him back, including a blood clot that prematurely ended his 2015, Folty opened the year with four starts in Gwinnett where he was mostly great, but wild. He was brought back to the bigs in May for six starts before landing back on the disabled list. Of those first six starts, four included outings where he allowed two or fewer runs. His return to Atlanta at the end of June saw him struggle with consistency. He'd dominate the White Sox over seven scoreless with 10 K's before giving up seven runs to the Twins three starts later. The Twins!? But that's kind of expected with young pitchers trying to figure it out. In that aspect, we saw noticeable improvement from Folty. In comparison to 2015, he increased his groundball rate 8% while utilizing his hard slider more. Furthermore, his FIP came down nearly 80 points while his swinging strike percentage also climbed slightly.

2017 Projection: If anyone has joined Julio Teheran on the white board as a member of the 2017 rotation, it's Folty. While some might still be convinced Folty is a better fit in the bullpen, as long as he continues to make strides - like he did this year - I am comfortable with him getting time as a starter. With the dismissal of McDowell, perhaps a new pitching coach can help Folty reach new heights. I really think that if he can develop his changeup to go with his fastball/slider combo that got him to the majors, it will be a stepping stone to a long run in the majors as an effective starter. Love that we saw him induce many more grounders this season. and a 14.5 K/BB% is about 2.5% better than league average. There's a lot to build from heading into 2017. Foltynewicz is in a great place to claim and hold a spot in the starting rotation moving forward.

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