Should the Braves Consider Moving Teheran?

Julio Teheran looked like the unquestioned ace of the Big Four pitching prospects the Braves once had churning in the minor leagues. Along with Mike Minor, Randall Delgado, and Arodys Vizcaino, Teheran was part of a group that would hopefully anchor the Braves rotation for much of the 2010's. Of course, here we are in 2017 and only Teheran remains as a starter, let alone in the Braves staff. And some might argue that we've reached the point where even that needs to change

Such commentary has pushed other Braves fans in a different direction. While more focused on a different pitcher, a frustrated Aaron Kirby remarked on Twitter this morning, "In fact, Julio and Folty have pretty similar stats this season. When are we moving Julio to the pen?" This refers to a common refrain from Braves fans - including ones at this blog - that Mike Foltynewicz profiles better as a reliever. But Kirby rightfully points out that both the flame-throwing right-hander and Teheran share many of the same issues. Why does one get talked about moving to the bullpen and the other doesn't? I would say for a variety of reasons, but the biggest is perception. People have long felt Folty's stuff was better suited for the bullpen. Nobody held the same regard for Teheran, who was considered a potential front-of-the-rotation arm.

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But five years into his career, is Teheran merely a decent enough rotation filler? Should the Braves consider possibly trading Teheran now rather than pay him at least $20M (including a 2020 buyout) through the 2019 season? While many will scoff at the idea out of practice, it's worth considering.

When Teheran signed a $32.4M extension in mid-February of 2014, he was coming off his first full-season in the majors. The deal effectively bought out the remaining five years of arbitration, a year of free agency, and potentially a second year with an $12M option for 2020. Along with the Andrelton Simmons' extension, both were very aggressive moves by the front office as they attempted to get ahead of the horse for what appeared likely to be very expensive arbitration years for the two young players. The plan was to pay them a bit more now but potentially save money later on. In turn, the players received financial security. Simmons would later be traded and while Teheran was often thrown around as a potential arm to be dealt in trade talks, he stuck around as the Braves went into a full rebuild.

Since signing the extension, he's been equally good and bad. In 2014 and 2016, he posted a matching WAR, according to Fangraphs, of 3.2 in both seasons. But then, his WAR fell to 1.1 in 2015 and it's unlikely to even reach that this season. In fact, since he signed the extension, his fWAR ranks just outside the Top 50 qualified starters in baseball at 7.9. That's lower than Tanner Roark, Mike Leake, and Bartolo Colon. It'd likely be lower if not for Teheran's durability. He's tossed the tenth most innings since the beginning of 2014. Nevertheless, the last four years haven't exactly lined up for Teheran like anyone had hoped.

Further, there is a reason to believe his 2016 bounce back season had a little too much luck in it. Lefties had a .247 BABIP against him that season, 35 points below his career average when facing left-handed hitters. His production against lefties has long been an issue that has limited Teheran, who has yet to develop a pitch to keep them honest. In turn, lefties bash him around to the tune of a 5.05 FIP over his career and it's only worsened as time has gone on (5.67 FIP since the beginning of 2015). Nearly 35% of batted balls since 2015 are classified as hard-hit, according to Baseball Info Solutions. To put it another way, a third of all balls left-handed batters put in play are scorched around the park. Some are caught, but too many of them find holes in the defense - or worse, become a souvenir for a fan in the outfield bleachers.

Teheran's problems against left-handers start with one key issue: his fastball loses much of its effectiveness against them. About a quarter of all swings on his four-seam fastball against right-handers are whiffs. That number falls about 10% against left-hand batters. Without a fastball to get ahead in the count, Teheran can't use his secondary pitches to induce weaker contact - or get more whiffs. Further, we don't see much of a drop in whiffs on Teheran's breaking pitches despite how many plate appearances in a game a right-hand hitter might have against Teheran. Against left-handers, his slider and curve see great declines in whiffs-per-swing after the first time through the order. That suggests that after left-hand batters get a read on his breaking pitches, they learn to lay off the ones they can't hit. The ones that they do...well, they don't always land.

Single Season Top fWAR for Braves SP since 2008 

Let's pull back for a second because it's definitely worth mentioning that Teheran doesn't turn 27 until the end of next January. Further, this is a pitcher with a pair of 3-win seasons during his career, something that's happened just nine times over the last decade for the Braves and almost certainly won't occur this year. Ignoring the reasons the Braves gave him an extension in the first place is a disservice to Teheran's time in the majors.

But two other pitchers show up on that list of 3-win guys since 2008 and they should scare Braves' fans - Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson. Much like Teheran, they were, at different times in their career, expected to front line a Braves' rotation for the next half-decade. And while we can talk about injuries and personal demons, another issue that developed for both pitchers might also serve as a warning sign for Teheran.

Declining velocity doesn't always mean something bad, but it can be a problem for a pitcher moving forward. In his rookie season of 2008, Jair Jurrjens averaged 92.4 mph on his four-seamer and 92.7 mph on his sinker. By 2011, he had lost three mph on both and a year later, he would be non-tendered by the Braves. He's made three starts in the majors since. During Hanson's rookie year, he averaged 92.7 mph on his four-seamer and 92.4 mph on his sinker. During his one 3-win season, he added a tick more velocity on the four-seamer but lost some on his sinker. The added velocity on his four-seamer was gone the next year and in 2012, it fell to 90.7 mph. That was his final year with the Braves. With Teheran, his velocity dropped after his rookie season from 93 mph to 92.2 mph. It stayed roughly the same in 2015, but he's continued to bleed a little velocity off in the two years since. In five years, he's gone from an average 93 mph to 91.9 mph. He's just 26 years-old. Now, the loss in average velocity is not a massive alarming discrepancy, but at his age, losing velocity is something to keep an eye on.

To not be concerned about Teheran's production at this point is to ignore reality. What's worse is that Teheran's struggles might only get worse, depending on how high this peak in offensive production that we are seeing league-wide goes. In 2014, the league ISO was .135 and the wOBA was .310. It's climbed to .172 and .322 respectively this season, prompting many commentators to refer to this year as a sign the ball is juiced again. Teheran has always given up a healthy amount of homers, but with home runs leaving the yard at an increased rate, that makes a pitcher like Teheran especially vulnerable. It's worth mentioning that baseball runs in cycles and just a few years ago, people were going crazy about a "Golden Age of Pitchers."

Could the Braves need, as Kirby also said, a new pitching coach? Well, they went down that route last winter when they sacked Roger McDowell in favor of Chuck Hernandez. It's unlikely that the Braves will shed Hernandez after just one year, though Ken Rosenthal recently suggested some radical moves might be on the horizon by an increasingly frustrated front office.

Let's circle back to those questions I asked earlier: is Teheran merely a decent enough rotation filler? Should the Braves consider possibly trading Teheran now?

To the first question, I think there is a good chance of yes, Teheran is just a durable innings eater. According to Baseball-Reference, Teheran's most similar pitcher through 25 was Scott Sanderson. A veteran of 19 years in the majors, Sanderson got to the bigs at 21 years-old with the Expos and a lot was expected from the right-hander. Ultimately, he never received a Cy Young vote, was named to just one All-Star Game, and started two playoff games in which he got beat around a good deal. Nevertheless, he was a good rotation piece for the Expos and then the Cubs before settling into a more nomadic experience over the final seven years of his career. Essentially, he was the Ervin Santana of his time. Could that be Teheran's future?

Or could he be a starter that does figure it out finally in his later 20's more than he ever had before? Certainly, it's a possibility, but is it one the Braves should count on? Is it one that Teheran has shown much reason to expect over the last three years?

Maybe the best argument against trading Teheran is the one I have made before. Trading him this offseason might be the worst time to do so. His value has taken a big hit this season and moving him now could be considered selling low on a player who, again, has had two 3-win seasons in his young career. General managers can get over missing the right window to trade a pitcher - as Frank Wren did with Jair Jurrjens. What keeps them up at night is trading a pitcher who looks to be on the decline only to see them find it again in a new city while you took back a small return just to get rid of him.

Teheran's Splits vs. LH batters since 2013

The second-best argument against trading Teheran is the same one that one might argue when we discuss moving Foltynewicz to the bullpen. Why move these guys when the rotation isn't exactly pushing them out of the way right now? Inning eaters certainly have value especially in a young rotation prone to outings that require long relief stints. In addition, trading Teheran would have to be part of a series of moves aimed at shoring up the front-of-the-rotation. John Coppolella would have to rebuild the first three spots in the rotation this offseason without Teheran in the mix at an affordable rate.

To sum up, this has been an exercise from someone who's not sure what the answer is. I have decreasing confidence that Teheran will resemble the guy we once thought would headline a playoff rotation. At the same time, are the Braves in a position where they can actually trade Teheran right now? And even if they were, is now the right time to trade Teheran? Did the Braves already miss their window to maximize Teheran's market value and now are better off keeping him for some level of consistency as he eats innings every fifth day? All the while, they are merely hoping to see another unsustainably low BABIP against left-hand batters to increase Teheran's production.

There's no easy answer here. My belief is that the Braves will wait, see, and hope. I guess their fans are left with the same options.

The Great Run Differential Debate

As the Braves polished off the Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon, ESPN's Dan Szymborski took to twitter. Things quickly went nutty from there.

Braves are at .500! With a similar run differential to the Mets, White Sox, Pirates, and Angels. So...yeah...

— Dan Szymborski (@DSzymborski) July 16, 2017

Ignoring the "So...yeah..." at the end, the tweet is accurate. With a run differential of -34, the Braves are reasonably close in run differential with the Mets (-40), White Sox (-36), Pirates (-25), and Angels (-25). These are all below-.500 squads with the White Sox over ten games under .500.

Szymborski would go on to argue the point as Braves fans confronted him. When fans would bring up losing Freddie Freeman for a significant amount of time and having Bartolo Colon struggle tremendously with the Braves and how these things affected run differential, Szymborski pointed out that you can't just take out the bad things. You also need to bring up the good things that have occurred that can not be counted on to be sustainable (he brings up Tyler Flowers having a .400 OBP and Freddie Freeman's adjusted OPS+ of 202).

Here's the thing - he's not wrong, but his approach is abysmal as he goes on to say that he "missed the BARVES crowd." Gee, thanks, Dan.

But back to his underlying point. Run differential can mean something. It's not the end-all of stats and can be sample-size driven. At the same time, it can tell us - as the season progresses - if a team is playing over or under what we should expect from them. The Expected Win-Loss Record, also called the Pythagorean expectation, is a nifty little tool for snapshot reasons. Most of the time, it proves fairly accurate and we see regression one way or the other.

There is a good deal of accuracy in run differential. It tells a story and it helps us predict the future.

Moving on, is there validity to the idea that, if you remove Colon's struggles and the beating the Astros gave the Braves a few weeks ago, the Braves are a better team? This is the other accurate point Szymborski attempts to make. The Braves are just as likely to improve without having to face the Astros or have Colon pitch every fifth day as they are to regress due to players beginning to fall back to their means (their catchers, Johan Camargo, and so on). Every team is dealing with similar issues - some more than others - and bringing them up as signs that the run differential is false may lose context.

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But here's the good news for Braves fans. The Braves are a team in flux. Of their opening day roster, four have been released while four others are on the Disabled List. A ninth player, Anthony Recker, is in the minors and a tenth player, Jace Peterson, will likely be demoted on Monday. In most of these cases, the Braves have improved when replacing members of their opening day roster. Johan Camargo is better than Adonis Garcia. Danny Santana is better than Emilio Bonifacio. Matt Adams is tremendously better than Chase d'Arnaud. The arms of Sean Newcomb, Luke Jackson, Jason Hursh, and Akeel Morris profile much better than the ones they replaced. The Braves are improving incrementally most of the time they choose a member of their minor league system over a player previously on the major league roster. That's something that run differential cannot speak to.

Consider this. The run differential at the end of May was -42. It's now down to -34. That's not a huge improvement, but it is an improvement. We can go an extra mile. Over 59 games, from May 12 to July 16, the Braves have a run differential of +1. Here's the math - 289 runs scored, 288 runs given up.

Is that cherry-picking? You betcha. May 12 was a win that put a halt to a six-game losing streak and also improved upon a season-worst nine games under .500. I didn't specifically look for a way to find an arbitrary point that would show the Braves with a positive run differential, but it ended up that way.

The Braves may not be a great team. Certainly, I've made that argument over this season. Defensively, they have significant issues and the pitching staff has been a season-long project. But they are improving and for fans of the Braves, that's exactly what you should be looking for with this rebuilding team. Are they ready for primetime (i.e. the playoffs)? I have my doubts, but are they the same team that only won 12 of their first 32 ballgames? Again, I have my doubts.

In the mean time, it's much too simple to chalk it all up to run differential and predict regression. This team is not the same one that opened up the season by losing 6-0 to the Mets. For Braves fans, that's a breath of fresh air.

Braves Empty the Colon, Call on Brothers

Despite what people may say, they didn't know things would go like this for Bartolo Colon.

Oh, sure, it was reasonable to predict a decline. It's always reasonable to predict that a pitcher, who will turn 44 in that particular season, will struggle more than he had in previous years. But Colon had bucked Father Time for so long that even if there was a decline, you could expect a 4.25-4.50 FIP with a slightly higher xFIP. With any luck, his ERA would be around 3.80-4.00 and he'll toss 190+ innings for you. All told, it was reasonable to expect another 2+ fWAR season - something he had done for six consecutive seasons.

But that won't happen. Not for the Braves and likely, not for Colon. On Thursday afternoon, they cut the bigger-than-life figure, severing ties with one of the few bold signings of the John Coppolella era. Colon had made 13 starts for the Braves with a 8.14 ERA over 63 innings. The Braves had won just five of those starts and he had surrendered four or more runs in eight of his 13 tries, including his final two. That doesn't include May 30, when shoddy defense led to seven-of-nine runs being unearned. His last two starts were separated by a 17-day rest for Colon and his sore oblique - or more accurately, his hurt pride.

To be sure, Colon gave it his all. His all was just not good enough. He went from a guy who lived in the strike-zone to a guy having to work his way back from being behind-the-batter - something that's just not possible for a pitcher without plus-stuff and Colon hasn't had plus-stuff since the George W. Bush administration. What he had with the Mets - and what the Braves were hopeful he was bringing to Atlanta - was pinpoint control and guile. They only got the latter from Colon. His Zone%, which focuses specifically on the strike-zone regardless of what the umpire decides is a strike, dropped nearly 6%. That may not seem like a lot at first blush, but for a pitcher who had to throw strikes on the regular to get batters out, it may have been the difference between having a regular gig in the majors and not.

To be fair, Colon pitched better than his 8.14 ERA. His FIP, xFIP, and SIERA all were about three runs lower. But that provides little solace when your walk-rate climbs 2.5% and your strikeout rate falls 2%. Colon had to be the Colon he once was to be effective. He no longer had that and while he was dinged up by some super unlucky metrics (.360 BABIP, 48.2% LOB%), he wasn't the guy the Braves thought they were getting.

So, we say adios to Bartolo Colon. He never hit a homerun for the Braves, much to everyone's disappointment. In fact, he was hitless in 15 trips to the plate with eight strikeouts and zero sacrifices. He had just two games where his Game Score was over 50 - his first and third outings. That's...about the end of good things to say about Colon's tenure with the Atlanta Braves.

The Braves could trade Colon, but I don't see it happening. His career could be over, but there's always the Mets. They loved him and have a need for pitching after all.

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Atlanta will stick with his four-man bench and replace Colon with another pitcher, left-hander Rex Brothers. A former closer for the Colorado Rockies back in 2013, injuries and poor play ended his time in Colorado relatively soon after. He carries a career 3.68 FIP/3.66 xFIP largely as a result of iffy control during his time in Colorado.

Brothers is a fastball/slider pitcher who flashed mid-90's heat during his good years, but a few ticks slower after his struggles began. When he's on, he can get strikes early in the count with his heater before bringing the slider, which has more of a 12/6 break than a typical slider. He has to live down in the zone to be successful.

Splits-wise, Brothers was extremely tough on lefthanders during his best years and moderately good against them in his lesser seasons. Righties showed more power against him and he carries about an 25 point difference in opposing wOBA between the two. The one thing that has really bothered him even against lefties is the walks. He actually gave slightly more free passes to left-handed hitters than righties, but the increased strikeout numbers and fewer homers when he had the platoon advantage did give him a 3.31 FIP against them. It's closer to 4.00 against righties. Either way, he hasn't shown the ability to be a left-hand specialist.

He did dominate in 14 innings mostly spent at Double-A this season. He had recently been promoted to Triple-A and tossed 4.1 scoreless innings there without a walk, which is always a good sign.

He's definitely worth a look, but let's not kid ourselves. He's 29 years-old and at his best, was still a 3.29 FIP/3.43 xFIP guy. We'll know quickly if the heater is back and if his location is improved. If it's not, don't expect Brothers to stick around as long as Colon did.

Walk-Off Talk 1.5: Finding A Partner (Part 2)

(Previously...on Walk-Off Talk...Ryan and I tried to find some interested teams for the two most valuable soon-to-be free agents on the Braves, Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips. Today, we look at four more pending free agent assets who don't have markets that aren't nearly as robust. Events occur in real time.)

Ryan,

@JMotte30

Last year, John Coppolella turned Hunter Cervenka into Michael Mader and Anfernee Seymour so we know the guy can find quality players for a reliever, but Jason Motte isn't Cervenka. He's not left-handed, he's not 26, and he doesn't carry a half-decade of team control. Is it even worth talking about Motte as a tradeable asset?

To be fair, Motte has been a nice find. He's kept his ERA around 2.00, picked up three holds, and stranded 11 of 15 runners he's inherited. But there are some issues here and that's not only related to the fact he turns 35 today. One, he's been about as lucky as a pitcher can be. The guy has an ERA nearly four runs under what his FIP is at. He's found a way to carry a negative WAR with a 2.14 ERA, which should be impossible. He has a 100% LOB%. His BABIP is a hyper-low .179.

Motte's going to crash and he's going to crash quick. And none of the numbers I cited are secret. While some teams are more stats-savvy than others, it's hard for me to accept that anyone thinks Motte has pitched as well as his ERA states. While we could certainly talk about some teams who are need of relief help, I see Motte more likely to be an added piece in deals involving Jaime Garcia or Brandon Phillips (or others we'll talk about later). Similar to how Jim Johnson was basically attached to the Hector Olivera (CHANGE TO He Who Must Not Be Named) deal. Am I wrong? Do you think there are teams that are going to actually target Motte?

------------------------------------------------------------------

Tommy,

No. Next?  Just kidding. I think you’re spot on when it comes to Motte as he’ll be a guy that gets attached to another player, if at all! He’s someone that the Braves fans should appreciate this year as he’s been brought in the midst of madness with runners galore and has stranded 11 of 15. Forget that some balls are hit so hard that they nearly take off the infielders’ gloves right before they double up the guy running back to 2nd, that’s a pretty remarkable feat. Velcro him to someone and let’s get another young flamethrower up here.

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Ryan,

I think we will also have similar reactions to the next two players - R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon. Let's address the knuckleballer first. He is coming off possibly his best start as a Brave where he tossed seven quality innings against the Giants. I say it was possibly his best start because eleven days before that, he had a Game Score v. 2.0 of 82 against the Phillies, which slightly edges the 81 he put up against San Francisco. Unfortunately, those starts were sandwiched around an eight-run, three-homer affair against the Nats. Since the beginning of 2013, Dickey has a FIP of 4.68 and it's only getting higher.

The righty does carry a - relatively speaking - affordable $8M club option for 2018, but will anyone bite on Dickey (ouch)? It seems hard for me to find a match. Maybe a team like the Red Sox who like the versatility of having a knuckleballer who can serve as a swingman? They lost Steven Wright after all and kept Tim Wakefield around despite some gross numbers toward the end of his career. That's about all I can come up with at this point. A few more games like last weekend, though, and things could change in a hurry.

As for Colon, I know you are going to suggest the Mets and honestly, it's the only option I see as well. Though, I kind of look at it like Julio Franco in reverse. The ageless one left the Braves for the Mets and really struggled in '07. They released him in mid-July and three days later, the Braves added him for the remainder of the season. I see the Mets maybe pouncing on Colon (ouch?) should the Braves cut him, but hard for me to see them giving the Braves anything - even a non-prospect.

And by the way, I think I'm being optimistic here in including two teams that might have any interest whatsoever at this point in either Dickey or Colon.

-------------------------

Tommy,

Let’s talk about R.A. Dickey and the history of his knuckleball: it gets better with the age of a season. For his career, his ERA during months of March/April is over 5. In May, 4.41. From there?

• June- 3.50
• July- 4.14
• August- 3.89
• September/Oct- 3.45

If there’s a team that knows this about Dickey, he could most definitely be looked at as an innings eater that could keep them in the game. However, that doesn’t negate the current numbers and that his ERA is 4.91. I like your idea about the Red Sox and there could be a match there, but aside from some salary relief, I don’t think there’s reason to discuss return at this point as it likely will be a player of little to no impact.

As for Bartolo, I think it’s Mets or bust, and if the Mets have an underperforming player they’d like to give the Braves in return for Bartolo, that’d be fine with me. On Twitter a few weeks back, I suggested a Bartolo for Josh Smoker deal. Smoker would have to be inserted on the 40-man, but he’s a LH flamethrower that’s finding success in the minors, but hasn’t translated to the bigs yet. Send Mets Bartolo, pay all but 1MM of his salary, and get a lottery ticket in return.

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Ryan,

Smoker? I hardly knew her.

Sorry. I mean, I’ll take any assets as I can for Colon as long as it doesn’t add to the financial bottom line, though I have to admit that I don’t have a lot of faith there is much chance of a deal.

Keith Allison (CC by 2.0) via Wikipedia Commons

Moving on to the Braves’ final one-year contract, let’s look at Kurt Suzuki. Back when the Braves signed Suzuki, I was a little disappointed. I didn't see the point in handing over the backup catcher gig to Suzuki over going with an open competition between Anthony Recker and a cast of thousands. So far, though, Suzuki has been pretty darn impressive. I'll take a wRC+ of 91 out of a backup catcher especially when he's ninth in the league in outside-of-the-zone strike percentage according to Statcorner.com.

It wouldn't be the worst thing to bring him back for 2018 depending on how he finishes this season, but if another team is looking for stability behind the plate and is willing to serve up a prospect or two, I'm definitely going to consider things.

• Arizona - The Diamondbacks have the worst fWAR among their catchers in the majors. Chris Iannetta and Jeff Mathis are both underperforming veterans, though Iannetta has mashed eight homers. Finally, there is Chris Hermann, who hit well last year, but has returned to the third catcher status that followed his career in Minnesota. Both Iannetta and Mathis score well in pitch framing, though Hermann does not. I imagine the Diamondbacks would be more interested in a better solution than Suzuki, but the market is thin and Suzuki might be one of their best options should they seek an improvement.
    
• Toronto - Russell Martin has underperformed, but Suzuki would not steal his playing time. Rather, this is about depth. Toronto started the season with our old friend Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate as the backup, but after he managed just a single in 26 PA (with 16 strikeouts!), the Jays moved on to Luke Maile, a 26 year-old in his third year who has hit .185/.211/.292 over 245 PA. The Jays could definitely use some help here.
    
• Cleveland - Roberto Perez was a bit of a postseason name, but he's hit just .159/.235/.216 this season. Yan Gomez isn't exactly lighting it up, either. Both do provide good defense and Perez is a particularly gifted framer. They don't seem like a good match on paper, but they might be interested in adding some depth.
   
• Washington - Matt Wieters' great start is a distant memory. He's reached 0.0 fWAR and nobody is talking anymore about how the Braves should have got him. Jose Lobaton, his backup, is a great receiver, but with Wieters cooling, might the Nats be interested in a better bat behind him? 

On one hand, the market isn't huge for Suzuki, though you could make an argument that half (if not more) of the league could use a better backup catcher and Suzuki is one of the better ones in baseball this season at providing just that. Do you think there might be abother player here I haven't listed?

----------------------------------------------

Thanks for asking, Tommy.

While I’ve had a few others that on the surface look like matches for Suzuki (Angels, Red Sox, Rockies), I think you’ve covered the main players. However….

I think the team that really could use Suzuki is a team you’ve discussed, and that is the Diamondbacks. They’re having a pretty good year and could use a fresh veteran presence behind the plate. There’s a LHP out of Vandy in their system that isn’t putting up great numbers at AA despite having great strikeout numbers: Jared Miller. He’s the perfect kind of upside for the Braves to take a risk on and he’s performing poorly enough to where the Diamondbacks would trade him.

But let it be known, I want to see the Braves extend Suzuki. I was of the same opinion as you when he was first signed, but his value as a backup to Tyler has been...well...valuable. I like 2 veteran guys catching our young guys going forward and I’d like to see these 2 back behind the dish in 2018. Obviously, the Braves could do both, trade him then re-sign him in the offseason, and that would be the best of both worlds as long as Suzuki is cool with it.

Transaction Tuesday: Newcomb, Medlen, Pike, Minter

Lots of moves to report this week in this recap. A top prospect is promoted to the bigs, a former prospect works his way up the ladder, and a non-prospect continues his wayward journey to never spend too much time in one city. Hope you enjoy!

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between June 6 and June 12. I no longer refer to Taxi Squad, but extended spring training which is what sending a player to Danville technically refers to this early in the year. Many of them don't actually head to extended spring, though. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta

Hursh (3rd across) | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Recalled from Mississippi, Optioned to Gwinnett, and Recalled Again: Jason Hursh...Don't look now, but Hursh has added some velocity to his heater and hit 96.18 mph last week. If he can throw that heavy fastball with that kind of velocity and location, the Braves may have themselves a prospect after all. He was dealing for both Mississippi and Gwinnett this year. At 25, it's time to see if he can stick in the majors for good now.

Recalled: Lane Adams...Most players are kind of boring to follow on twitter. They retweet generic inspirational posts, reach out to their hometown buddies, or say "let's go get 'em" each time there is a game. Lane Adams, though, is a joy to follow. Recent tweets include him taking someone to task for being a "true fan," his endorsement of the Minute Maid soft-frozen lemonade (which he says is the "bomb dot com"), and advising women to stop bedazzling their capris. His twitter feed was major league quality long before he was brought back to the majors.

Recalled and Optioned to Gwinnett: Matt Wisler...Hitters in general show improvement the more times in a game they see a pitcher so I don't want you to fall in love with these splits, but opposing OPS from the first appearance against Wisler in a game to the fourth appearance ranges from .741 to .795 to .837 to .925. He's got a good slider and likely would add a few ticks to his heater (currently in the 93 mph range) if he was in a relief role. Is it time to consider that?

Called Up: Sean Newcomb (#2)...I wrote a blurb about Newcomb yesterday so I don't want to repeat myself much. What I didn't mention yesterday is the news that dropped about Newcomb. He'll get at least a second start. Are you hyped yet?

DL'd: Bartolo Colon (left oblique/general awfulness)...Colon's greatest contribution to the Braves this year has been hitting the DL so Newcomb could be promoted. That's just a sad fact. He has a 5.09 FIP, his highest walk rate since Barrack Obama's first year, and an xFIP of 4.83 - which would be a new high (the stat goes back to 2002). But hey, we got plenty of fat jokes along the way.

DL'd: Adonis Garcia (left finger/general awfulness)...The nearly everyday third baseman (for reasons) is back on the DL for a second time this season. He has a .282 OBP this year which is just 20 points below his career average so...yay for a regression to the norm at some point...

DL'd: Eric O'Flaherty (left shoulder/general awfulness)...My daughter was given a gobstopper and immediately tried to bite it down and crunch it. I told her that she needs to suck it first because it's too hard to bite. She said she understood and wouldn't ya know it? She kept trying to bite it. I took it away from her because she wouldn't eat the candy properly. At some point, John Coppolella has to take away O'Flaherty from Brian Snitker because Snit won't use O'Flaherty properly. Over the last two seasons, lefties have a .292 wOBA against O'Flaherty with a 20% strikeout rate. Righties? They brutalize O'Flaherty to the tune of a .461 wOBA (not a typo). Yet, he's faced just one more lefty than he has a righty during that time. This season, he's faced five more righties than he has lefties! Coppy, take the gobstopper away from Snit. He's just going to use it wrong.

Released: Emilio Bonifacio...Could this be the end of the Braves/Boni relationship? One can hope. You have to give it up for Boni's consistency, though. In 2015, in 82 PA, he had a -0.7 fWAR. Last year, in 43 PA, he had -0.6 fWAR. This season, in 44 PA, he had a -0.6 fWAR. Only nine major league players were able to amass more than -1.5 fWAR over the last three years and to his credit, nobody did it more efficiently than Bonifacio (just 169 PA). It took Casey McGehee nearly 200 more PA to be that inept.

Gwinnett

Gaylor | Barry College

Promoted from Mississippi: Stephen Gaylor...This is actually Gaylor's second assignment in Gwinnett - he played there one game last year. Gaylor has some fans in the front office who keep promoting him despite some fairly un-noteworthy numbers. He was hitting just .118 in 13 games before joining Gwinnett after all and has a career .646 OPS, but the undrafted outfielder out of Berry College continues to climb the ladder.

Promoted from Mississippi: Kris Medlen...The comeback continued into its third different assignment as Medlen graduates from Florida and Mississippi on his way back to the majors. His first start in Gwinnett since 2012 wasn't great, though he did strike out six, a season high. The pinpoint control just isn't there yet and he'll need a bit more time, but the 31-year-old has looked strong in his five outings.

Activated: Aaron Blair...Following a short stint on the DL, Blair returned last week to make two starts. One was pretty ugly, but his Sunday start against Charlotte was superb with 6.1 innings, four hits, no runs, two walks, and five K's. Blair's control has been suspect all season and a pitcher with his limitations needs to be able to hit his spots much better.

Activated: Braeden Schlehuber...A fourth rounder in Frank Wren's first draft class (2008), Schlehuber is an organizational guy who I would be shocked to see not get a coaching assignment in the organization once he retires. He's been on the DL nearly as many times (three) this year as games played (four). On the plus side, on May 31, he hit his first home run since 2014.

Temporary Inactive: Caleb Dirks (#34)...I'm not real sure what this is about for Dirks. Likely, this is related to paternity leave, but in general, a temporary inactive placement is just a way to say the player in on paid leave. A placement like this requires at least three days away from the team. Dirks was placed on the list last Friday. He's struck out 40 over 34.1 innings compared to just ten unintentional walks. He has matched his career-high by surrendering three home runs and has an FIP of 3.29.

Released: Mel Rojas Jr....Rojas was a big minor league pickup last year and logged significant time this spring with the Dominican Republic squad this spring for the World Baseball Classic. That potentially was to his detriment as he missed out on an opportunity to compete for a spot on the Braves bench with Bonifacio. After a slow start with Gwinnett, Rojas was ready to try his luck elsewhere and asked for his release to sign with a team in Korea. The Braves obliged and Rojas will have a shot to make some good money in Asia.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Tyler Pike...Otherwise known as the other guy the Braves got in the Alex Jackson trade, Pike left a minor league system that does some questionable things to their arms to a system that gives more reasonable assignments and rewards performance. Lucky for all of us. Pike's improvement with his control that really began last year continued for Florida and he upped his groundball rate in the process. He carried a 2.94 FIP over nearly 70 innings with the Fire Frogs before the promotion. Pike was a former #126th overall pick so he's got some talent. If the Braves are able to develop that talent into an exciting prospect, they will show once more that sometimes, it's not the prospects who disappoint, but the scouting-and-development team that doesn't bring out the best of the prospect.

Parsons | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Activated with Gwinnett from extended spring, demoted from Gwinnett: Wes Parsons...For us that have watched Parsons struggle to stay on the mound, his promotion to Gwinnett was a nice moment. However, he got bashed around in his 8.1 innings and will return back to Mississippi, where he was impressive over 30.1 innings.

Activated: Bradley Roney (#38)...Roney has spent much of the season sidelined. He's only appeared in eleven games. His walk rate continues to be an issue (14% at Mississippi), which negates his very impressive strikeout numbers. Roney pitched 27 games in Gwinnett last season and has closer stuff. Will he ever hit the strike zone enough, though?

DL'd: Matt Withrow (#29)...After a tremendous beginning to the season, Withrow's numbers had really come back to Earth over his last four starts (18 ER in 17.1 ING with 10 BB and 15 K's). He now heads to the DL for the first time for the 2015 sixth rounder. The Texas Tech alum has a nice fastball with good sink, but doesn't get many grounders out of it. Withrow has a classic fastball/slider combination that might serve him well as a reliever or the Braves might keep him as a starter as he tries to develop his offspeed stuff because that makes him a better trade asset.

Florida
Activated from DL: A.J. Minter (#19)...It's been a tough season for Minter, who carried a great deal of hype into spring training. There was thought he might even jump to the majors and why not? He jumped from Rome to Mississippi in 13 games with a stop in Carolina last year. But he was slowed by injury this spring and when he finally got into a game on April 11th, he strained his groin. But on Sunday, he made his return and struck out all three batters he faced. Kids, time to get hyped again.

Promoted to Mississippi and demoted back: Andres Santiago...So, this is Santiago's season. He spent a week to open the year with Florida, was "sent" to Danville for three days, brought back to Florida for a dozen, "back" to Danville for four, and was added to Rome for nearly two weeks before returning to Florida on May 10. I'm not done. Ten days later, he "returned" to Danville for a week before coming back to Florida for about five days. He then went to Gwinnett for two days, back to Florida for four days, up to Mississippi for three days, and two days ago, he was demoted back to Florida. In two months, he's moved around more than I have in nearly 35 years on this planet. I need to do more with my life.

Rome
Promoted from extended spring: Alan Rangel...Plucked out of Mexico back in 2014 during Frank Wren's last international class, Rangel has spent his first two professional seasons in the Gulf Coast League. He struggled badly through his first run, but turned the corner a bit last year with 46.2 solid innings. Rangel works off his control, which is superb and gets some good downward movement on his pitches. He fit the mold that the Wren-era scouting team was looking for in that way. He was expected to be on the Danville roster when the season opened, but received a shot with Rome to show what he has. He scattered seven hits over 4.2 innings, but only one, a homer, led to a run. He also walked a batter and struck out four. Just 19, he might get an extended stay with the Danville pitching staff likely to be stacked from the draft.

Activated: Oriel Caicedo...An extreme control artist, Caicedo has walked just four in 43.1 innings this year for Rome. Overall, he has a mere 73 walks in 412.2 career innings. He'll never strikeout a lot and doesn't get a ridiculous amount of grounders, which is why he won't show up on your prospect lists, but he's a solid dependable arm who can start when needed.

DL'd: Ryan Lawlor...Selected in 2015 with the #240th overall pick, Lawlor skipped Rome last year on his way to Carolina. He struggled there with an ERA and FIP near 5.00 before being demoted to Rome for this season. Though his ERA has been pedestrian (4.37), his peripherals have been wonderful (31% K-rate, 8% walk rate, no homeruns, 48% groundball rate, 2.03 FIP). I have not seen any report as to why he hit the DL, but he last pitched on May 31 and went 5.2 innings that day while matching his season and career-high in strikeouts with nine.

Danville
Demoted from Rome: Jaret Hellinger...A 2015 20th rounder out of McDonough, GA, Hellinger has some good sinking stuff, but the southpaw struggled to put it together with Danville last year (4.42 FIP). He opened this season in extended spring training before getting a call-up in mid-May. His first outing was solid, but he struggled from there with a four-run four-inning start mixed in during his six-appearance run with Rome. Short of an injury, Hellinger might be stuck in Danville until their season begins.

DSL

Severino | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Assigned: Yenci Pena...Another one of the seven-figure prospects the Braves added last July, Pena us expected to add power as he ages (he's still just 16). A capable defender at shortstop, there is concern whether he'll stay there long-term, but for now, the Braves will roll with him at the position. He's gotten off to a 4-for-18 start with a pair of doubles, five strikeouts, and a steal.

Assigned: Yunior Severino (#44)...Signed for $1.9 million last July, Severino is one of the crown jewels of a massive class that also included Kevin Maitan, Abrahan Guiterrez, and the aforementioned Pena. He was ranked as the eighth-best prospect of last year's class and is a switch-hitting power hitter who may - and I stress may - be able to stay on the middle of the infield. Atlanta has decided for now to shift him over to second base, though opinions were split about whether he'd be able to stay at shortstop should the Braves had tried that. Severino is off to a 2-for-15 start with a double, three walks, and five strikeouts.

Monday Roundup: Krolling, Demeritte Rolling, Flowers Needs Extolling

Welcome to June and this week's Monday Roundup. We start with three out west to finish a six-game California swing and end with a trio of games in Cincinnati.

Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

May 29, 6-3 WIN @ Angels
The Braves scored all of their runs in the third with help from a pair of two-run doubles off the bats of the recently acquired Matt Adams and Danny Santana. Tyler Flowers, who had a pair of singles, and Rio Ruiz drove the other runs home. Ender Inciarte added two hits in the win. Julio Teheran went 6.1 innings and gave up three solo homeruns, including one to Andrelton Simmons and another, #598, to Albert Pujols. Jose Ramirez entered with the bases juiced in the seventh and got out of it. Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson shut the door from there.

May 30, 9-3 LOSS @ Angels
The third inning from hell was the Braves' undoing here. Up 2-0 entering the frame, Bartolo Colon got a grounder to lead off the frame, but Dansby Swanson whiffed on the diving attempt. No foul there, it would have been a tough play. After an out was recorded (and a ball was nearly thrown away by Colon on a pickoff attempt), Kole Calhoun sent one up the middle. Jace Peterson bobbled and fumbled the ball, ruining a shot at two (and a sure out, at least). Pujols followed with HR #599 to put the Angels up. But the inning was just starting for the Braves. With a runner on, Simmons hit a grounder to - basically - his replacement at short, but Swanson completely whiffed (again) on what should have been out #3, maybe out #4. Up next was Ben Revere (yes, he's still in the bigs) who sent a weak grounder to first, but Matt Adams couldn't get the ball out of his glove. Another run scored. Next was Cliff Pennington, who sent another weak little nubber to the hapless Braves infield - this time to Colon. The runner was going, but nobody told Colon, who tried to throw to second and then, for reasons unknown, decided to try to go home instead. He slipped and his throw home was late. Jesus, this is a lot of writing. After a liner to center scored yet another run, another grounder went the way of Colon who attempted the third or fifth double play of the inning, but it got passed Peterson and went into center field. A bunt happened next because the Braves weren't being embarrassed enough. Peterson was late covering first and Adams' throw was late anyway. When it was all said-and-done, nine runs had scored and only two were earned. On the bright side...Matt Kemp and Tyler Flowers each homered and the bullpen tossed 5.2 scoreless innings.

May 31, 2-1 LOSS @ Angels
Jaime Garcia threw seven superb innings and allowed just an unearned run, but the Braves offense could only crank out five hits off Jesse Chavez and just one over Bud Norris. One of those hits was Matt Kemp's tenth homer. The game was decided in the eighth when another former Brave, Eric Young Jr., hit a homerun.

June 1, OFF

June 2, 3-2 LOSS @ Reds (10 innings)
Mike Foltynewicz pitched a gem, but the bullpen couldn't hold a 2-0 lead. Folty struck out ten over seven innings and scattered just a pair of singles, but after Vizcaino's sketchy eighth, the ninth was when things got really bad. Jim Johnson gave up a pair of doubles and a wild pitch on a ball that Tyler Flowers didn't get in front of led to a tie game and a blown save. In the bottom of the tenth, Devin Mesoraco homered off Jose Ramirez to end it. Inciarte, Flowers, Swanson, and the returning Adonis Garcia all had two hits with Swanson hitting his fifth homer of the year. Matt Kemp added three hits.

June 3, 6-5 WIN @ Reds (12 innings)
The Braves wasted a 5-1 lead, but the bullpen stayed strong late in this one as the Braves pulled out the extra innings victory. With R.A. Dickey on the mound, the Braves erased an early 1-0 hole with a monster fifth inning. After an error, a walk, and a hard single loaded the bases, Matt Adams smacked a Grand Slam. Later in the inning, Swanson singled in Garcia. Starting for the second consecutive game, Garcia had four hits, including a double, and stole a pair of bags. However, the Braves quickly gave the runs back in the sixth. An HBP, an error, and a walk loaded them before a single brought home a runner and chased Dickey. Jason Motte then walked home a runner before giving up a two-run single. It remained 5-5 until the 12th when Adams unloaded for the second time in the game and fifth time overall in the two weeks since the Braves acquired him. Jim Johnson, who blew a game the previous night, threw two solid innings in relief. The pen as a whole tossed 6.2 scoreless innings, though Motte did allow three inherited runners to score.

June 4, 13-8 WIN @ Reds
In a wild game, the Braves outslug the Reds to take the series. Atlanta went up 1-0 in the first inning but quickly fell behind 2-1. They would score the next eight runs and though the Reds didn't go away, the Braves would never trail again. Inciarte had his second 5-hit game of the year and hit his sixth homerun, matching his career high. Danny Santana added two doubles, a homer, and a single for a big afternoon. Johan Camargo doubled and walked while Flowers was on base four times and scored each time. The only real negative was Teheran, who gave up seven runs over five ineffective innings.

This week: 3-3
Season: 24-30 tied for 2nd in NL East, 10.5 GB

Upcoming Schedule: The Braves return home for a busy week of baseball in front of the home fans. The Phillies come to town for four evening games to begin the week. Next up is the Mets for another four games as Saturday will include a day/night doubleheader. Sunday's game is also a day game and as always, it's a Alumni Sunday game. On hand will be Denny Neagle, Alejandro Pena, Jose Alvarez, and 1995 NLCS MVP Mike Devereaux.

Three Last Things

Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

1) Let's Krol
Earned Run Average is a terrible thing for a reliever. Back in 2002, John Smoltz gave up eight runs in his second game of the year. It was his first full season as a reliever. His ERA would remain over 5 for the next two months and only went under 4 to stay in August. His ERA after that second game was 2.40.

Ian Krol's ERA stands at 5.48, but like Smoltz in '02, it doesn't tell nearly the whole story. Over his last seven outings since May 18, Krol has worked 7.2 innings. He's allowed just one hit, which happens to count for the only run he's allowed (a solo homerun). He's walked four batters and struck out ten. Few outings were more important than Sunday's. With a tired bullpen, Krol entered with the game still in doubt at 11-8. He missed Zack Cozart and Joey Votto, the best hitters in the Reds lineup, but still breezed through all six batters he faced while striking out half of them. The outing dropped his FIP an entire half-run.

Krol was excellent in 2016 with a 2.91/2.97/2.81 FIP/xFIP/SIERA. One of the developments that led to last season's success, beyond improved control, was the ability to induce grounders. Last year, it was 57%. Over his first 15 games this year, it was down nearly twenty points to 39%. Over his last seven, it's back up to 57%.

It's a long season and while early season struggles can wreck a reliever's ERA, Krol is trending in the right direction toward better full-season numbers.

2) His Name is Travey and He's Pretty Much a Big Deal
In his first season above A-ball, Travis Demeritte has done some interesting things. He's lowered his strikeout rate under 25% - no small feat for a player who routinely K'd a third of the time. While the batting average (.264) hasn't been where he wished it would be, his wOBA has been around .360/.370 most of the season. On Saturday, he bashed a pair of homers and added his tenth homer on Sunday.

But what makes Demeritte even more noteworthy is where he's been playing of late. On May 21, he shifted from second base to third base and has stayed there for the last thirteen games. While Ozzie Albies hasn't set the world on fire in Gwinnett, he remains the second baseman of the near future. Accepting that and seeing how Demeritte responds to third base is only natural for the Braves.

3) Just Look At the Flowers
Hitting fourth on Sunday was Adonis Garcia, a player who, despite six hits in two games since being activated off the DL, is not the type of player you expect to see in the cleanup spot. Two spots below him was Tyler Flowers. Before 2016, it would have been ridiculous to hit Flowers anywhere near the top of the lineup. Now, it seems absurd to continue to bat him in the six-hole.

Flowers reached base four times on Sunday. It increased his already stellar OBP to .475. It is the top OBP of any hitter that has stepped up to the plate at least 130 times this season. Yet, only twenty of those plate appearances have come while hitting higher in the order than sixth.

Flowers isn't going to hit .365 all season with a .475 OBP and .422 wOBA. But while he is, shouldn't the Braves be in position to take advantage of it? Flowers is currently one of the hottest hitters in baseball and even in a lineup that is producing at a much higher rate than expected, the Braves are failing to maximize that the production from Flowers. While it might be convenient to keep him there to keep the lineup alternating lefties and righties as much as possible, it's still a waste. Hit Flowers third or fourth and make the lineup even more dynamic.

Walk Off Talk 1.1: Can the Braves Rotation Improve?

In this new series, Ryan Cothran and I have a back-and-forth as we discuss a subject. It's informal and we hope you guys get something out of it. This week, we’ll look at the starting pitching staff. At times, we’ll agree. Other times, we’ll disagree. Join the conversation and tell us where we are misguided in the comment section. 

Ryan,

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Thank God for the Reds. I mean it. Without them, the Braves might have the worst starting staff in baseball. They came into Friday with a 4.81 ERA and 5.14 FIP. The only good thing you possibly say about their collective performance to this point is that they have given the Braves innings. Not a wealth of good innings, but innings just the same.

No matter where you look, there is massive disappointment. Let's start with Bartolo Colon. Two months in and he's only hitting the strikezone on 50% of his pitches according to PITCHf/x. It was 57-58% with the Mets. That might not sound like a lot of difference, but when you depend entirely on getting hitters to swing at your pitch, it's worrisome to me. And what's worse is that his zone rate is declining as the season progresses rather than improving. His last start, against the Pirates, saw him hit a typical strikezone according to PITCHf/x just 48% of the time. You can't throw quality starts that way when you don't have the stuff to entice hitters into swinging at balls out of the zone.

Please tell me I'm just being pessimistic. Tell me that Bartolo Colon will turn it around.

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Tommy, you’re putting me in a pickle here and that’s the real dill.

I can’t tell you for sure that Bartolo will turn it around as I’ve always been befuddled Bartolo stayed effective when everyone knew what was coming and that it wasn’t going to be with a swiftness. As you eluded to, it was his ability to control the entire strike zone with pitches darting to-and-fro that brought him success. His K/9 are the lowest they’ve been since 2013, and his BB/9 is the highest since 2011. However, his BABIP against is at .341, well above his .291 career mark, and there aren’t any velocity changes to warrant that type of increase, which leads back to location. FIP and xFIP suggest Bartolo’s ERA will likely drop, but even taking that into consideration, it’s still high (5 or above) and not what you’d want from a pitcher. So, will he improve? In all likelihood, yes. Will he be effective? I cannot say yes with confidence.

I suggested this a few days back in a Tweet and it’s something that I hope Coppy is checking on, and that is a bad contract swap. Braves have pitchers that could benefit from MLB time (Sean Newcomb or Lucas Sims) but Kris Medlen will likely be ready before either of them. If the Braves could land someone like Todd Frazier in exchange for Bartolo and have the Toddfather platoon at 1st (or 3B), it could create a win that helps strengthen 4 areas:

-Platoon of Rio Ruiz and Adonis Garcia at 3B
-Platoon of Matt Adams and Todd Frazier at 1B
-Bench strengthen with 2 of the above available to pinch hit
-Remove Bartolo, insert Kris Medlen

---------------------------------

Ryan,

I would love to have optimism that a team would be interested in acquiring Colon. Right now, I just can’t see it. There definitely is room for improvement, but like you point out, even if his BABIP regresses closer to his career and his LOB%, which is a shockingly low 58%, is closer to his career rate of about 73%, unless he’s able to improve his ability to throw quality strikes, this looks like the end of the road for Colon.

This is supposed to be the prime of Julio Teheran’s career, though. He's in his Age-26 season and came into 2017 with four full years in the majors. In three of those four seasons, he had between a 2.5 fWAR and 3.2 fWAR. He's remarkably durable and consistent outside of 2015. So...what is the problem here?

A lot has been made of his home struggles. I'm not sure I really buy that being a big factor, but the results definitely give us some reason to think SunTrust Park has not been a friend to him. Unlike Colon, it's a bit harder to find a stat and say, "there! There's the smoking gun." He's throwing a bit less in the strikezone, though only 2% less than last year when he was very successful.

On one hand, it's probably a good thing that I can't figure out what's really wrong with Teheran beyond bad performance. Might mean it's mechanical and an easier fix. With Tommy Hanson and Jair Jurrjens, even if I was too young to see it, the warning signs were there (most notably decreased velocity). Teheran doesn't have that glaring issue to me, but what do you think?

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Tommy,

Thanks for the flower arrangement welcoming me to the blog, but the xoxo’s were a bit much. My wife wasn’t impressed.

Lastly before I get to firstly, Bartolo’s been worth 0.3 fWAR, Frazier 0.1fWAR, both under contract for this year, and ChiSox could be just as desperate for Frazier to go seeing as though they have a 3B playing well and a need at SP. Dream big, my friend.

Onward to Teheran, it’s all about the splits man, and I think the league is fully aware now as teams have been challenging him by playing their left-handed hitters more regularly against him, It’s paying off for them as well...to the tune of an .874 OPS. This isn’t a new problem as his career splits against numbers against LHHs aren’t much lower, .797 OPS. But this next part is new. Check this out:

Career PAs against Julio Teheran

• RHHs- 1819 (50.4%)
• LHHs- 1823 (49.6%)

Nearly identical, eh?  Now look at this year

2017 PAs against Julio Teheran

• RHHs- 120 PAs (43.7%)
• LHHs- 152 PAs (56.3%)

Yes...the league knows, Julio. So what to do? Unfortunately for the Braves, they’re playing in a new park that doesn’t bode well for Julio and his problems against left-handed hitters (LHHs vs. Julio at Suntrust, 1.186 OPS), but surely there’s something that can be done.  Well...maybe. If I were trying to fix Julio, it’d be to completely change his approach when facing lefties. Sure, keep the arsenal full, but throw the arm-side moving pitches much less (which have been destroyed by LHHs), focus more on the 4-seamer, the slider, and keep them low. Big shoutout to Lee Trocinski for aiding me in this research!

--------------------------

Ryan,

You will take your hugs and kisses and like it. It’s the Walk-Off Walk way.

That sounded entirely too illegal.

Anyway, moving on, the bit on Teheran is very interesting. It’ll be something to watch moving forward if the disparity continues, but we definitely need to see improvement. We’ve seen that from the lefthander in the rotation. Jaime Garcia, a career #3 or #4 pitcher, is pitching like a #3 or #4. Or in Atlanta Braves 2017 terms, an ace. But am I right to think that it's Garcia - not Colon - that should get the boot from the team first? Preferably in a trade to acquire a decent prospect or two?

I know this will wreck the team's distant hope to get into the Wild Card argument, but as I always try to do in fantasy baseball, sell-high. Garcia's ERA of 3.18 is over a run less than his FIP and xFIP. He's unlikely to keep his BABIP 50 points below his career average all season either. Is Garcia, who seems like the least of our troubles, the guy the Braves should consider dealing the most?

I should say - in his defense - his last three starts have been excellent. FIP around 2.70, 21.2 innings, just five walks, and a groundout rate over 70%. He's hot right now and maybe his FIP will drop rather than his ERA explode. But the little John Coppolella that lives in all of us Armchair GMs is feeling antsy. Have to get my fix and make a trade happen and selling high on Garcia seems, to me, like the right route. What say you?

-------------------------------------

Tommy the Tulip,

Like most pill-pushers of the planet, no argument here on the idea of “selling high” on “High-May”. The point I’ll lay my hat on is his health. He went three years in which staying on the field was a big challenge and it just seems like Braves have guys in the MILB that are ready to test the waters that won’t be a big dropoff in production. Jaime being able to stay on the field AND stay productive has been a pleasant surprise, but let’s not push it. Trade him and let’s see Newk get a shot. Might I suggest Cleveland for a destination? They’re riding the struggle bus in starting pitching and also lack a LH starter. Maybe Braves could get Cleveland to sell low on Brady Aiken? It seems almost too easy, right?

--------------------------------------------

RyGuy,

It’s scary how quickly you concur with me. The kool-aid has worked quite well.

I was very much on the Mike Foltynewicz bandwagon coming out of last season. He appeared to grow up as last season progressed with a few stinkers mixed in, but this season has been a mixed bag with some success and a good deal of failure. His velocity is good and his control (previously thought of as a problem) is actually an asset. But the K's are down 3%, the homers are on the rise, and he's not getting a lot of soft contact. At 16.9%, his Soft% is down about 3.5%.

Certainly, it's not time to give up on Folty and regression is never good to see. Nevertheless, I want to believe he'll improve as the season progresses. Maybe it's just a need to feel optimistic about something. So, to paraphrase Futurama, why not Foltberg?

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Twinkle-toes Tommy,

Folty has been Fol-tee on several occasions this year as he’s served up a few on a platter.  When the trade went down in which Braves sent Evan Gattis to the Astros for Folty,  Rio Ruiz, and Andrew Thurman, my heart was torn out. More than any other trade the Braves had/have made. Loved Gattis, the story, and loved his ability to defy all the doubters and become a good MLB catcher. After the initial sting, I looked at the 3 in return and still wasn’t enthused. I’ll admit that I thought Folty was destined to the bullpen, Rio destined for life in AAA, and Thurman, maybe, a long reliever at best. Time will tell who “won” the trade, but it looks like the scale is tilting toward the Braves with Rio’s recent call-up and success. Back to Folty…before we get into debating his future, let’s look at his 4 pitches with the aid of Pitcher List.

I’m no pitching expert here, but in comparing his best game vs. his worst game, both games essentially show the same data:  No matter the location, up, down, middle, he’s very effective when he stays on the outer ⅓ of the plate. Also, the slider seems to be his pitch that either looks GREAT...or sits over the PLATE with no movement.  It’s been his least effective pitch for his career yet he’s throwing it nearly ¼ of the time. In the video above, the slider looks very hittable with little movement. However, I can understand the reasoning why Folty would like to keep it because when he has it, it’s phenomenal. Here’s a video of one of his best.

It seems the secret to his slider success is to keep the velocity up, as the samples that I have seen in which it’s deadly is when it’s in the lower 90s, not mid-80s, although throwing the slider at an increased speed could lead to injury. Such a fine balance.

I don’t know Folty personally so this next piece is just heresy, but if it’s a between-the-ears issue, making Mike a 3 pitch pitcher, focusing on harnessing the fastball, slider (or curveball), and changeup, could be a good decision. While it’s stereotypical for a starting pitcher to have 4 pitches, a good hard fastball that’s complimented with a nasty change and slider would suffice plenty. While his curveball has been effective this year, it’s also the pitch that batters can lift and in Suntrust that’s not good.

So, my overall suggestion: Stay on the outer ⅓, ditch a pitch, keep the increased velo on slider, use the change as the true out-pitch that it can be, and master 3 instead of 4.

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Ryu,

I think that might be a good trick to getting him rolling in the right direction. I admit I wasn’t hugely thrilled about Folty to begin with and considered him more of a reliever than a starter. The bullpen still may be his best role in the majors, but it’s definitely worth trying out every single possible thing to try to get him turned into the right direction. The kid has a lot of projection still left in that flamethrowing right arm.

Lastly, there’s R.A. Dickey. He’s been bad - worse than I thought he was going to be but I still have this feeling that he’ll still post a high 4 ERA, low 5 FIP, high 4 xFIP. Basically, exactly what you think of a fifth starter. He gives you innings and not much else. On a team with a better rotation, that wouldn’t be a bad thing.

I guess I just don’t care too much about Dickey’s performance. He’s underperformed what I expected out of him for sure, but I didn’t expect all that much in general. Am I wrong to basically give him a pass?

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I don’t normally go for W/L record as a measurement for a starting pitcher, but the Braves are 5-5 when R.A. is on the mound, and that’s about what I expect of him. As many games as he’ll help you win, he’ll help the other team win as well. The downside of Dickey (and I’ve never thought about this until Lee Trocinski brought it up) is that ERA is not a full measurement of a knuckleballer as passed balls are just going to be part of the game. In 60 innings (or 6 ⅔ games if you’re measuring by ERA), RA has 4 unearned runs and Kurt Suzuki is leading the National League in passed balls. Therefore, if you’re measuring RA by ERA, ya might want to add an extra 0.3-0.5 to it so it reflects his true production.

Honestly, RA being in the rotation is so meh to me I don’t even know why I wrote a paragraph on it. I was meh when he was signed, and still meh after 10 starts. However, if his option is picked up, I’ll be much worse off than meh, and I’ll likely let this blog and Twitter know of my displeasure.

So, for this year...fine. Whatever. Eat innings. Save the arms, the whales, save everyone. He seems like a good dude and is easy to root for, so let’s just leave it at that.