Time to revisit the Walk-Off Walk look around the league. Our focus this week - the AL West. Considering there were two notable deals with the AL West this offseason, you can bet we will run into a few former Braves.
Houston
P Brett Oberholtzer - Long ago a piece of the Michael Bourn trade, Oberholtzer has made three starts in the majors and generally looked pretty substandard. He's also had issues with blisters on his finger.
P Jose Veras (AAA) - He was kind of a Brave. Picked up on a minor league deal with a good chance to make the Braves this spring, Veras struggled before eventually being cut. He hooked back up with the Astros, who he has played twice before, and recently made his season debut in AAA.
P Blaine Sims (A+) - Sims was an undrafted free agent out of Arkansas Tech (go Wonder Boys (seriously, that's their name)) who spent four years in the Braves system, never advancing past Lynchburg. He may have been cut after five starts this season where he gave up 30 runs.
DH Evan Gattis - His first month in Houston was about as terrible as you can imagine a first month going, but Gattis belted nine homers in May so the Astros aren't feeling as terrible as they ought to about that deal.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
P Nate Hyatt (AA) - Traded to the Angels in the deal that sent Ricardo Sanchez to the Braves, Hyatt has been awful with Arkansas in AA. His control, which has always been concerning, has completely left him. In one outing, he gave up a hit, walked three, and was charged with five unearned runs against Tulsa. Odd numbers.
P Cory Rasmus - The guy we gave up for Scott Downs, Rasmus has yet to play this season due to an abdominal/core injury.
P Atahualpa Severino and Zach Stewart (AAA) - I'll put both of these 2014 Gwinnett Braves together. Stewart has done okay, but Severino has been awful. He was actually pretty solid for Gwinnett last year and would probably love to go back.
3B Kyle Kubitza (AAA) - His over .800 OPS is a little tempered by the fact that it's the Pacific Coast League and just having a pulse gives you a .725 OPS. Still, Kubitza has produced so far, though not at a level that will amaze anyone.
Oakland
P Jesse Chavez - I want to kind of hate this guy. He was so unlike-able as a Brave and has been very productive once he came to Oakland. In parts of four years, he has a 3.52 ERA, 3.48 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP...not superstar numbers, but great numbers for a swingman.
P Eric O'Flaherty - Another season, another trip to the DL for EOF, but on the bright side, he is back in the majors. On the not-so-bright-side, he has sucked this year. He went to the DL with a 11.57 ERA and in two outings since coming back, he has only decreased that to 9.35 while allowing three of the eight he has faced to reach.
Seattle
P Joe Beimel - He appeared in 30 games for Gwinnett in 2013, but the lefty has found a second chance in Seattle and has been productive for the Mariners.
C Jesus Sucre - He has a career OPS of .633 in the minors, but Sucre keeps getting shots with the Mariners. He played in the Braves system from 2006 to 2011.
Texas
P Matt Harrison - He has thrown less than 30 innings over the last two years, but Harrison might be on his way back. He's currently on a rehab assignment. Part of the Mark Teixeira trade.
P Neftali Feliz - He finally got healthy for a few weeks and even saved six games, but didn't look like his former dominant self. He did the DL for an "abscess under his right arm." Ouchie. He just started a rehab stint.
P Wandy Rodriguez - The decision to keep Eric Stults over Wandy was, well, a poor one. Rodriguez has looked pretty solid in Texas while we celebrated a trade that sent Stults away.
SS Elvis Andrus - What a tease. In 2012, he looked like he was blossoming into a decent enough bat, but since, he has gone south. I don't know if it's by habit or need, but Texas still likes to him second.
UT Tyler Pastornicky (AAA) - Given his release out of sympathy, Ref has posted a .708 OPS in stints with Frisco and Round Rock.
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Showing posts with label Pastornicky. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pastornicky. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 9, 2015
Sunday, May 10, 2015
Random Prospect Sunday - Felix Marte
In 2011, the Braves brought a group of prospects to Atlanta in mid-September to honor their Pitchers and Players of the Year. Julio Teheran was there. As was Mike Minor and Andrelton Simmons and Evan Gattis. Jose Peraza had not yet made his state-side debut, but he was there. So was Tyler Pastornicky, Randall Delgado, and Zeke Spruill. Lost among this pretty amazing group of young players was the honoree as the Player of the Year for the Gulf Coast League Braves. He lacked the prospect stardom of the young pitchers like Teheran, Minor, and Delgado. He wasn't a fun little story like Gattis and nobody wondered how far his glove would take him like Simmons. He wasn't even riding one amazing minor league season like Joey Terdoslavich, the system's Player of the Year. No, Felix Marte was just a boom-or-bust guy.
Three years later, he was no longer eligible for Player of the Year honors. You see, the only way Marte gets another trip to Atlanta to be honored for his minor league numbers is as a Pitcher of the Year for any club. But that's how it goes sometimes.
Born in mid-November of 1990 in the Dominican Republic, Marte joined the Braves system as a 2007 signee with Teheran. The 17 year-old only played 21 games in '08 in the Dominican Summer League and was an after-thought on a team with Christian Bethancourt. Marte began his career in the infield, but soon moved to the outfield for good after booting 9 of 34 chances at shortstop. He would play two more years in the DSL and improved his numbers in both seasons. He may have even impressed some on-lookers in 2010 when he hit .269 with a .823 OPS that includes 26 extra-base hits in 58 games.
With 125 games already under his belt as a professional, the Braves felt it was sink-or-swim time for Marte in 2011 and brought him state-side. He played in the Gulf Coast League and hit well enough to advance (.269/.354/.431), though nothing stood out in his numbers. It was worthy enough of Player of the Year honors in the Braves system for GCL, but the only player who may have been better for the gig was Will Skinner, who hit .300 with 4 HR in 22 fewer games.
The Braves tried to push the situation as Marte was already entering his fifth professional season and pushed him to Rome to open the 2012 season. He struggled in 36 games, hitting .231 and earning this atrocious rate - 4 BB/50 K. The Braves backed off, demoting him to Danville where he waited for their season to open following the draft. He rebuilt some of his value back with a .262/.338/.439 slash for the D-Braves, though you'd like to hope someone with four years of experience who was just about the same age as the rest of the league would do better if he had the potential.
That led to the make-or-break season of 2013. Back at Rome to open the season, he homered in his fourth game - something he failed to accomplish in the 36 game run during the 2012 season. However, that was one of just three homers over the entire year for Marte. He did add nine triples, but finished the year with a .241/.296/.355 slash. He wasn't even able to start slow, but finish strong. He hit lefties better than righties, but not enough to call him a lefty masher.
Naturally, the Braves weren't anxious to bring back Marte for a seventh year to re-inforce what they already knew. His bat just couldn't cut it. So why not try the mound instead? I don't know if the Braves pushed it or Marte suggested it. But either way, he returned to Danville to open 2014 as a pitcher. In ten games and 12.1 ING, Marte struck out nine and posted a 1.05 WHIP. He was a free agent heading into last offseason, but the Braves worked to bring him back and he made his return to Rome to open this season. Coming into Saturday's games, Marte had received a call to pitch five times and in 7.1 ING, he had yet to allow an earned run. He had walked five and struck out four.
Finding scouting reports for non-draftees isn't easy. It's especially hard for outfielders who were moved to the mound in 2013. I can assume he's got some intriguing movement and/or velocity. There's got to be something there for the Braves to even put the time and resources into helping him reach new heights on the mound. We'll see if he becomes an interesting story as the season progresses.
Recent Prospects
Joseph Daris
Tyler Jones
Daniel Castro
Three years later, he was no longer eligible for Player of the Year honors. You see, the only way Marte gets another trip to Atlanta to be honored for his minor league numbers is as a Pitcher of the Year for any club. But that's how it goes sometimes.
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| Credit: comc.com |
With 125 games already under his belt as a professional, the Braves felt it was sink-or-swim time for Marte in 2011 and brought him state-side. He played in the Gulf Coast League and hit well enough to advance (.269/.354/.431), though nothing stood out in his numbers. It was worthy enough of Player of the Year honors in the Braves system for GCL, but the only player who may have been better for the gig was Will Skinner, who hit .300 with 4 HR in 22 fewer games.
The Braves tried to push the situation as Marte was already entering his fifth professional season and pushed him to Rome to open the 2012 season. He struggled in 36 games, hitting .231 and earning this atrocious rate - 4 BB/50 K. The Braves backed off, demoting him to Danville where he waited for their season to open following the draft. He rebuilt some of his value back with a .262/.338/.439 slash for the D-Braves, though you'd like to hope someone with four years of experience who was just about the same age as the rest of the league would do better if he had the potential.
That led to the make-or-break season of 2013. Back at Rome to open the season, he homered in his fourth game - something he failed to accomplish in the 36 game run during the 2012 season. However, that was one of just three homers over the entire year for Marte. He did add nine triples, but finished the year with a .241/.296/.355 slash. He wasn't even able to start slow, but finish strong. He hit lefties better than righties, but not enough to call him a lefty masher.
Naturally, the Braves weren't anxious to bring back Marte for a seventh year to re-inforce what they already knew. His bat just couldn't cut it. So why not try the mound instead? I don't know if the Braves pushed it or Marte suggested it. But either way, he returned to Danville to open 2014 as a pitcher. In ten games and 12.1 ING, Marte struck out nine and posted a 1.05 WHIP. He was a free agent heading into last offseason, but the Braves worked to bring him back and he made his return to Rome to open this season. Coming into Saturday's games, Marte had received a call to pitch five times and in 7.1 ING, he had yet to allow an earned run. He had walked five and struck out four.
Finding scouting reports for non-draftees isn't easy. It's especially hard for outfielders who were moved to the mound in 2013. I can assume he's got some intriguing movement and/or velocity. There's got to be something there for the Braves to even put the time and resources into helping him reach new heights on the mound. We'll see if he becomes an interesting story as the season progresses.
Recent Prospects
Joseph Daris
Tyler Jones
Daniel Castro
Thursday, January 8, 2015
Braves Get a LOOGY!
On Wednesday afternoon, the Atlanta Braves announced that they had signed left-hander Josh Outman to a one-year deal. In addition to replacing Chasen Shreve, who they dealt to the Yankees, and provide cover for the impending trade and/or suckage of Luis Avilan, the Braves acquire a guy with a very suitable name for his job. Provided he does it. Oh, and Fredi Gonzalez uses him properly.
Outman was originally drafted by the Phillies in 2005, but arrived in the majors with the A's after being part of the deal that sent Joe Blanton to Philly. His rookie year of 2009 was cut short by...come on, just guess...he's a Brave and he's a pitcher. What procedure do you think he's had?
After getting back to the majors following his 2009 Tommy John surgery, Outman struggled to reclaim his brief success as a starter for the A's. They sent him packing before the 2012 season to get Seth Smith and almost a year later, the Rockies gave him up for Drew Stubbs. His ERA was solid with Cleveland, but his FIP told another story (2.86 vs. 4.83). The biggest reason for that came down to control. Outman walks opposing hitters at about a 9-and-a-half percent clip, but that mark was north of 13% last season. After demoting him to the minors for two months, the Indians traded him to the Yankees before rosters expanded where he appeared in nine games and faced just 12 batters.
He's a one trick pony, but it's a good trick. Here is his last three years and career marks against lefties.
For Outman to be successful, he has to be used in the one role he's capable of flourishing in. That will fall on Fredi Gonzalez. If Outman does bounce back for a solid 2015 campaign, he might even net a useful prospect.
In a corresponding move, the Braves pushed Tyler Pastornicky out the door. It was only a matter of time, though getting rid of Jose Constanza would appear just as obvious and oh, look, he's still there. Originally acquired during the 2010 season in the Yunel Escobar/Alex Gonzalez deal, "Rev" took over as theplaceholder starting shortstop in 2012 out of default as the Braves waited for Andrelton Simmons to be ready. He proved overmatched both in the field and with the bat and was banished to AAA for most of the second half of the season. Over the last two seasons, he has logged less than 50 games in the majors and was going to be out of options provided he failed to secure a spot on the bench this spring. Pastornicky has a career .608 OPS in a little more than 250 PA so it's not out of the realm of possibility that he could become a decent major leaguer. He's going to have to improve his positional flexibility as outside of a few cameos in center field, he has only played the middle of the infield.
Outman for Pastornicky is a win for the 2015 team even if Outman seemed like an unnecessary luxury for a bullpen bursting with potential arms. He'll join Jim Johnson and Jason Grilli as the revamped group that is setting up Craig Kimbrel. James Russell will probably be back as well, though the super active Braves probably are not done. That leaves a group including Michael Kohn, Shae Simmons, Juan Jaime, David Hale, the aforementioned Avilan, and other guys looking to break through such as Brandon Cunniff and Aaron Kurcz.
Outman was originally drafted by the Phillies in 2005, but arrived in the majors with the A's after being part of the deal that sent Joe Blanton to Philly. His rookie year of 2009 was cut short by...come on, just guess...he's a Brave and he's a pitcher. What procedure do you think he's had?
After getting back to the majors following his 2009 Tommy John surgery, Outman struggled to reclaim his brief success as a starter for the A's. They sent him packing before the 2012 season to get Seth Smith and almost a year later, the Rockies gave him up for Drew Stubbs. His ERA was solid with Cleveland, but his FIP told another story (2.86 vs. 4.83). The biggest reason for that came down to control. Outman walks opposing hitters at about a 9-and-a-half percent clip, but that mark was north of 13% last season. After demoting him to the minors for two months, the Indians traded him to the Yankees before rosters expanded where he appeared in nine games and faced just 12 batters.
He's a one trick pony, but it's a good trick. Here is his last three years and career marks against lefties.
| Year | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA |
| 2014 | .167 | .269 | .339 | .277 |
| 2013 | .195 | .278 | .261 | .249 |
| 2012 | .194 | .246 | .377 | .271 |
| Career | .183 | .254 | .283 | .243 |
In a corresponding move, the Braves pushed Tyler Pastornicky out the door. It was only a matter of time, though getting rid of Jose Constanza would appear just as obvious and oh, look, he's still there. Originally acquired during the 2010 season in the Yunel Escobar/Alex Gonzalez deal, "Rev" took over as the
Outman for Pastornicky is a win for the 2015 team even if Outman seemed like an unnecessary luxury for a bullpen bursting with potential arms. He'll join Jim Johnson and Jason Grilli as the revamped group that is setting up Craig Kimbrel. James Russell will probably be back as well, though the super active Braves probably are not done. That leaves a group including Michael Kohn, Shae Simmons, Juan Jaime, David Hale, the aforementioned Avilan, and other guys looking to break through such as Brandon Cunniff and Aaron Kurcz.
Tuesday, December 16, 2014
See ya, Anthony...
First, there is a lot we don't know as of this writing. Atlanta could be finalizing a trade that will make this move look much more reasonable so we shouldn't immediately jump to the conclusion that the Braves are being extra strength stupid.
With that said, the Braves twitterverse was in full uproar Monday evening when, as news broke that the Alberto Callaspo signing had been completed, in a related transaction, Atlanta designated reliever Anthony Varvaro for assignment. The Braves, who were at the full 40-man roster limit before signing Callaspo, needed to create room - that much is true. What is perplexing is why Varvaro? Again, a trade might be announced over the next few days that will clear up this matter. On the surface, it makes zero sense and I guess we must have faith in John Hart to make this work. Or just cry. I vote cry.
Varvaro was once a 12th rounder out of St. John's by the Mariners back in 2005. He started briefly, but after sucking badly, the Mariners moved him to the bullpen by 2009. His problem in the minors was walks, including a walk rate of 7.3 per nine innings in that first year as a reliever. As he began to rectify that problem and the walks fell, he started to move up the ladder in the M's system rather quickly, reaching the majors by the end of 2010.
His time with the Mariners was limited to just four games as they DFA'd him following the signing of Miguel Olivo, who would go on to have one of the most offensively inept seasons in modern history. A .253 OBP in 507 plate appearances? I can only imagine the anger of watching that saunter up to the plate 500 times. And we thought Jeff Francoeur was an out machine? Incidentally, "Out Machine" was The Miracles' unsuccessful follow-up to their final big hit.
Also...that's what happens to the guy you DFA Varvaro for? Callaspo doesn't have a chance.
With the Braves, Varvaro would spend a couple of seasons shuffling between Gwinnett and Atlanta. He was hit by the homer bug, though the sample size was low enough that I would struggle to say he pitched that poorly.
He finally came into his own during the 2013 season. Effectively replacing Cristhian Martinez in the bullpen after Lispy went down with arm troubles, Varvaro would appear in 62 games with the Braves and toss 73.1 ING, which led Braves relievers. He got more groundballs which kept the ball in the yard and even set a new personal best in fewest walks per nine innings. It wasn't all roses because he did uncork seven wild pitches and his strikeouts tumbled, the latter of which explaining the huge discrepancy in FIP (3.47) and xFIP (4.19). Still, as a long reliever who keeps the game from getting out of hand or throws quality extra innings, Varvaro was solid in his role. He even came to the plate once on August 17th of 2013 against the Nats. He had entered because Mike Minor had one of his few WTF outings of the season. Varvaro would bat following some fireworks after Stephen Strasburg, who hit Justin Upton and threw behind Andrelton Simmons, was ejected. The long reliever struck out looking against Tanner Roark. Currently, its his only plate appearance.
Varvaro returned in 2014 and took on a bigger role in the wake of injuries and poor early season play by David Carpenter. His strikeouts saw a considerable rise and he even walked fewer batters, leading to his best professional season. No longer a long guy, Varvaro was asked to get situational outs, despite reverse splits for the year and his career, another decision make by Fredi Gonzalez based on the "book" over facts. Like I said, he was still productive, but was better suited for longer outings, not as the guy coming in to face a righty.
Not arbitration-eligible, it looked like Varvaro would return to play a significant role for the Braves in 2015 until he was DFA'd. An aforementioned trade might be in the future or, as Gondeee suggests, maybe a late season drop in velocity concerned them. Or maybe the Braves want to rid themselves of everything Frank Wren ever touched (you're next, Tyler Pastornicky). Whatever the case, it was certainly an odd move as this point to dump a guy who has been productive with so many fairly worthless players already on the 40-man roster (like Pastornicky or Jose Constanza). If a trade doesn't happen, this move makes you really question just what in the hell is going on in Atlanta's front office. Even if a trade does happen, if Varvaro is simply tossed to the side for a guy in A-ball with good velocity and nothing else, you feel cheated. Four years of team-control has essentially been tossed down the drain. Let's make it worth something.
Either way, if the Curse of Varvaro is real, Callaspo is so screwed.
With that said, the Braves twitterverse was in full uproar Monday evening when, as news broke that the Alberto Callaspo signing had been completed, in a related transaction, Atlanta designated reliever Anthony Varvaro for assignment. The Braves, who were at the full 40-man roster limit before signing Callaspo, needed to create room - that much is true. What is perplexing is why Varvaro? Again, a trade might be announced over the next few days that will clear up this matter. On the surface, it makes zero sense and I guess we must have faith in John Hart to make this work. Or just cry. I vote cry.
Varvaro was once a 12th rounder out of St. John's by the Mariners back in 2005. He started briefly, but after sucking badly, the Mariners moved him to the bullpen by 2009. His problem in the minors was walks, including a walk rate of 7.3 per nine innings in that first year as a reliever. As he began to rectify that problem and the walks fell, he started to move up the ladder in the M's system rather quickly, reaching the majors by the end of 2010.
His time with the Mariners was limited to just four games as they DFA'd him following the signing of Miguel Olivo, who would go on to have one of the most offensively inept seasons in modern history. A .253 OBP in 507 plate appearances? I can only imagine the anger of watching that saunter up to the plate 500 times. And we thought Jeff Francoeur was an out machine? Incidentally, "Out Machine" was The Miracles' unsuccessful follow-up to their final big hit.
Also...that's what happens to the guy you DFA Varvaro for? Callaspo doesn't have a chance.
With the Braves, Varvaro would spend a couple of seasons shuffling between Gwinnett and Atlanta. He was hit by the homer bug, though the sample size was low enough that I would struggle to say he pitched that poorly.
He finally came into his own during the 2013 season. Effectively replacing Cristhian Martinez in the bullpen after Lispy went down with arm troubles, Varvaro would appear in 62 games with the Braves and toss 73.1 ING, which led Braves relievers. He got more groundballs which kept the ball in the yard and even set a new personal best in fewest walks per nine innings. It wasn't all roses because he did uncork seven wild pitches and his strikeouts tumbled, the latter of which explaining the huge discrepancy in FIP (3.47) and xFIP (4.19). Still, as a long reliever who keeps the game from getting out of hand or throws quality extra innings, Varvaro was solid in his role. He even came to the plate once on August 17th of 2013 against the Nats. He had entered because Mike Minor had one of his few WTF outings of the season. Varvaro would bat following some fireworks after Stephen Strasburg, who hit Justin Upton and threw behind Andrelton Simmons, was ejected. The long reliever struck out looking against Tanner Roark. Currently, its his only plate appearance.
Varvaro returned in 2014 and took on a bigger role in the wake of injuries and poor early season play by David Carpenter. His strikeouts saw a considerable rise and he even walked fewer batters, leading to his best professional season. No longer a long guy, Varvaro was asked to get situational outs, despite reverse splits for the year and his career, another decision make by Fredi Gonzalez based on the "book" over facts. Like I said, he was still productive, but was better suited for longer outings, not as the guy coming in to face a righty.
Not arbitration-eligible, it looked like Varvaro would return to play a significant role for the Braves in 2015 until he was DFA'd. An aforementioned trade might be in the future or, as Gondeee suggests, maybe a late season drop in velocity concerned them. Or maybe the Braves want to rid themselves of everything Frank Wren ever touched (you're next, Tyler Pastornicky). Whatever the case, it was certainly an odd move as this point to dump a guy who has been productive with so many fairly worthless players already on the 40-man roster (like Pastornicky or Jose Constanza). If a trade doesn't happen, this move makes you really question just what in the hell is going on in Atlanta's front office. Even if a trade does happen, if Varvaro is simply tossed to the side for a guy in A-ball with good velocity and nothing else, you feel cheated. Four years of team-control has essentially been tossed down the drain. Let's make it worth something.
Either way, if the Curse of Varvaro is real, Callaspo is so screwed.
Monday, November 10, 2014
WOW's Offseason Look at: Right Side of the Infield
Time for another look at where the Braves stand before free agency really opens up and players start shifting squads. On the right side of the infield, first base is pretty clear while second base is wide open.
First Base
Who we got?... Freddie Freeman, Joey Terdoslavich, Chris Johnson
Who's getting Arby?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be going?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be coming?...Nobody (aww)
So, here's the plus of having a guy signed long-term. You kinda can ignore the position. Freeman signed a massive contract before last season which will pay him handsomely until the end of 2021. So, here's the negative of having a guy signed long term. You kinda get screwed if he doesn't play up to the contract you gave him. Freeman posted a .897 OPS in 2013 while getting top five recognition in the MVP voting. Last season wasn't nearly as successful. His OPS fell .50 points, though let's not get too bogged down with that. Yes, his isolated power showed a decrease, but the bigger story here is how it has fell from .196 in 2012 to .181 in 2013 and to .173 in 2014. That does give us some reason for concern. Now, he did hit 43 doubles and theoretically, more of those could turn into homers, but Freeman will begin earning at least $20.5M a year from 2017-21. Shouldn't we expect more?
Let's be completely honest, though. The Braves have much bigger concerns than Freeman. Even if he struggles, he's still one of their best hitters. I mean, he slashed .288/.386/.461 last year and I'm still dogging him. If his partner across the diamond had performed as well as Freeman "struggled," the Braves would have been in the playoffs. I have to say this, though. Let's not over-do this asinine hype about his defense. I know Chip and Joe will talk about him "saving errors" and his splits are impressive, but he has no range. His UZR since 2011 has fluctuated between -8.7 and -23.6 so we can be pretty safe in the knowledge that his defense won't win any Gold Gloves. Nevertheless, he's still a plus player for the Braves, even if his production doesn't help him stand out compared to the rest of his position.
But...what happens if he goes down? Well, the Braves had Ernesto Mejia, but he was sold to a team in Japan. Mejia was stuck behind Freeman and deserved a chance to perform and he did pretty well in Seibu. With him gone, if Freeman is out, who gets the playing time. Joey Terdoslavich was a bit of a prospect in 2011, than he fell apart in 2012. He got his prospect status back in 2013, but struggled the following year. He's a pretty decent line drive hitter who has fairly good plate patience, though he's a statue at first. Johnson could move over to first if needed, though that option reeks of desperation as well. Of course, the Braves will likely bring in an AAAA type like they did with Mark Hamilton last year, but Freeman better stay healthy if the Braves have any hope of unseating the Nats.
Depth Chart
1. Freeman
2. Johnson
3. Terdo
Second Base
Who we got?... Tommy La Stella, Philip Gosselin, Tyler Pastornicky, Dan Uggla (in spirit only)
Who's getting Arby?... Ramiro Pena
Who might be going?... Emilio Bonifacio
Who might be coming?... Jose Peraza, Elmer Reyes
While first base looks pretty certain, second base is ridiculously wide open. First, there was Uggla. That sucked. Then, it was La Stella, who had some good moments, but you still have to outslug your OBP, especially when you have little speed and aren't a plus defender. Briefly, Gosselin was our hope. That's pretty sad. Finally, it was Bonifacio, who decided to suck ass once he came to Atlanta. Did you know Pastornicky is still around?
Where does that leave the Braves? Definitely searching for a long-term option and really, that is nothing new. Since Mark Lemke's run from 1991-97, the Braves have been searching for the guy at second. Marcus Giles held it down for four long years and Kelly Johnson followed with three. Keith Lockhart, Quilvio Veras, and Bret Boone have all had their shots. Last year was supposed to be Uggla: Chapter IV, but it turned into twitter calls for "TLS!" and so on.
TLS is La Stella and he did get the majority of time at second. The hiring of Kevin Seitzer would appear to help as La Stella is the type of guy who should fit into the offense Seitzer wants. La Stella doesn't K much and has good bat control. He showed more pop in the minors than he did in the majors, though it was rarely impressive. He's also had freak injuries that have limited him. Nevertheless, La Stella's skill set could be useful for the Braves provided he hits better than .251, which his brief minor league career suggests he's capable of. He has the profile of a .270/.340/.370 guy and while that won't knock anyone's socks off, it's not a terrible stopgap.
Beyond TLS is the Goose, who could platoon with TLS. Goose rode a .401 BABIP at Gwinnett to amazing numbers, but crashed a little once he got back to the bigs. Unlike La Stella, he doesn't walk and is not suited for a top-of-the-lineup assignment. Also unlike La Stella, Gosselin can play defense, which includes solid marks at second and decent enough skills on the left side of the infield. Plus, he can shift to the outfield in a pinch. While a platoon option, Goose is better suited to be the 25th guy. This makes Pastornicky worthless for the Braves. The Braves used the Ref's final option last year and it was strange why he was even around in the first place. In three years in the majors with most of the time coming in 2012, Pastornicky has a -1.4 fWAR. His minor league numbers haven't been impressive enough to think he's a post-hype sleeper and besides, you need hype first.
Pena is in arbitration and if the price isn't too bad, probably should be brought back for depth. While he didn't hit as well as he did during 2013, Pena is a plus defender who doesn't completely embarrass himself. Besides, is he really going to make much more than the $700K he got last year? Bonifacio struggled with the Braves after they acquired him, slashing just .212/.273/.280 in 41 games with the Braves while playing five different positions, the majority of which coming in center. He's badly mismatched there, but he's not a terrible second baseman. That said, he's a crappy option to be a starter. While he's good for 25+ SB, he doesn't do enough to be more than a super utility guy, which does give him value. The Braves could be an attractive place for the free agent with its wide open second base job, though the Braves would have to non-tender Pena to make it a sensible move for them.
Of course, there is a future long-term option. Peraza was limited by a late summer injury, but climbed from Lynchburg to Mississippi and didn't miss a beat. The 20 year-old slashed .339/.364/.551 in 110 games and swiped 60 bases. He showed a bit more pop, which makes him all the more attractive as an option. He was a deserving 2014 Minor League Player of the Year for the Braves and will be at the top of all prospect lists devoted to Atlanta's system this offseason. But he might need more time. Elmer Reyes has 55 games at AAA and did slash .295/.329/.422 between Mississippi and Gwinnett last year. While not the prospect Peraza is, Reyes does provide depth.
2B Depth Chart
1. La Stella
2. Gosselin
3. Pena
The Braves could go after a free agent option, though the market isn't that exciting. They could also make a trade, but they probably will not go for any option that is signed beyond 2015. Howie Kendrick has been mentioned as a possibility as the Angels are shopping him. Still, my bet is that they don't do anything and see if TLS/Goose can hold down the fort before Peraza is ready. If TLS does perform, the Braves could try to trade him while his value is high and benefit there as well. While TLS wasn't all that impressive in 2015, his skill set could still provide use. Regardless, you have to imagine that the Braves are both fearful that second base could be an issue next year and comforted by the quantity of options. This is why Bonifacio could be brought back. One more option won't kill them.
First Base
Who we got?... Freddie Freeman, Joey Terdoslavich, Chris Johnson
Who's getting Arby?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be going?... Nobody (yay!)
Who might be coming?...Nobody (aww)
So, here's the plus of having a guy signed long-term. You kinda can ignore the position. Freeman signed a massive contract before last season which will pay him handsomely until the end of 2021. So, here's the negative of having a guy signed long term. You kinda get screwed if he doesn't play up to the contract you gave him. Freeman posted a .897 OPS in 2013 while getting top five recognition in the MVP voting. Last season wasn't nearly as successful. His OPS fell .50 points, though let's not get too bogged down with that. Yes, his isolated power showed a decrease, but the bigger story here is how it has fell from .196 in 2012 to .181 in 2013 and to .173 in 2014. That does give us some reason for concern. Now, he did hit 43 doubles and theoretically, more of those could turn into homers, but Freeman will begin earning at least $20.5M a year from 2017-21. Shouldn't we expect more?
Let's be completely honest, though. The Braves have much bigger concerns than Freeman. Even if he struggles, he's still one of their best hitters. I mean, he slashed .288/.386/.461 last year and I'm still dogging him. If his partner across the diamond had performed as well as Freeman "struggled," the Braves would have been in the playoffs. I have to say this, though. Let's not over-do this asinine hype about his defense. I know Chip and Joe will talk about him "saving errors" and his splits are impressive, but he has no range. His UZR since 2011 has fluctuated between -8.7 and -23.6 so we can be pretty safe in the knowledge that his defense won't win any Gold Gloves. Nevertheless, he's still a plus player for the Braves, even if his production doesn't help him stand out compared to the rest of his position.
But...what happens if he goes down? Well, the Braves had Ernesto Mejia, but he was sold to a team in Japan. Mejia was stuck behind Freeman and deserved a chance to perform and he did pretty well in Seibu. With him gone, if Freeman is out, who gets the playing time. Joey Terdoslavich was a bit of a prospect in 2011, than he fell apart in 2012. He got his prospect status back in 2013, but struggled the following year. He's a pretty decent line drive hitter who has fairly good plate patience, though he's a statue at first. Johnson could move over to first if needed, though that option reeks of desperation as well. Of course, the Braves will likely bring in an AAAA type like they did with Mark Hamilton last year, but Freeman better stay healthy if the Braves have any hope of unseating the Nats.
Depth Chart
1. Freeman
2. Johnson
3. Terdo
Second Base
Who we got?... Tommy La Stella, Philip Gosselin, Tyler Pastornicky, Dan Uggla (in spirit only)
Who's getting Arby?... Ramiro Pena
Who might be going?... Emilio Bonifacio
Who might be coming?... Jose Peraza, Elmer Reyes
While first base looks pretty certain, second base is ridiculously wide open. First, there was Uggla. That sucked. Then, it was La Stella, who had some good moments, but you still have to outslug your OBP, especially when you have little speed and aren't a plus defender. Briefly, Gosselin was our hope. That's pretty sad. Finally, it was Bonifacio, who decided to suck ass once he came to Atlanta. Did you know Pastornicky is still around?
Where does that leave the Braves? Definitely searching for a long-term option and really, that is nothing new. Since Mark Lemke's run from 1991-97, the Braves have been searching for the guy at second. Marcus Giles held it down for four long years and Kelly Johnson followed with three. Keith Lockhart, Quilvio Veras, and Bret Boone have all had their shots. Last year was supposed to be Uggla: Chapter IV, but it turned into twitter calls for "TLS!" and so on.
TLS is La Stella and he did get the majority of time at second. The hiring of Kevin Seitzer would appear to help as La Stella is the type of guy who should fit into the offense Seitzer wants. La Stella doesn't K much and has good bat control. He showed more pop in the minors than he did in the majors, though it was rarely impressive. He's also had freak injuries that have limited him. Nevertheless, La Stella's skill set could be useful for the Braves provided he hits better than .251, which his brief minor league career suggests he's capable of. He has the profile of a .270/.340/.370 guy and while that won't knock anyone's socks off, it's not a terrible stopgap.
Beyond TLS is the Goose, who could platoon with TLS. Goose rode a .401 BABIP at Gwinnett to amazing numbers, but crashed a little once he got back to the bigs. Unlike La Stella, he doesn't walk and is not suited for a top-of-the-lineup assignment. Also unlike La Stella, Gosselin can play defense, which includes solid marks at second and decent enough skills on the left side of the infield. Plus, he can shift to the outfield in a pinch. While a platoon option, Goose is better suited to be the 25th guy. This makes Pastornicky worthless for the Braves. The Braves used the Ref's final option last year and it was strange why he was even around in the first place. In three years in the majors with most of the time coming in 2012, Pastornicky has a -1.4 fWAR. His minor league numbers haven't been impressive enough to think he's a post-hype sleeper and besides, you need hype first.
Pena is in arbitration and if the price isn't too bad, probably should be brought back for depth. While he didn't hit as well as he did during 2013, Pena is a plus defender who doesn't completely embarrass himself. Besides, is he really going to make much more than the $700K he got last year? Bonifacio struggled with the Braves after they acquired him, slashing just .212/.273/.280 in 41 games with the Braves while playing five different positions, the majority of which coming in center. He's badly mismatched there, but he's not a terrible second baseman. That said, he's a crappy option to be a starter. While he's good for 25+ SB, he doesn't do enough to be more than a super utility guy, which does give him value. The Braves could be an attractive place for the free agent with its wide open second base job, though the Braves would have to non-tender Pena to make it a sensible move for them.
Of course, there is a future long-term option. Peraza was limited by a late summer injury, but climbed from Lynchburg to Mississippi and didn't miss a beat. The 20 year-old slashed .339/.364/.551 in 110 games and swiped 60 bases. He showed a bit more pop, which makes him all the more attractive as an option. He was a deserving 2014 Minor League Player of the Year for the Braves and will be at the top of all prospect lists devoted to Atlanta's system this offseason. But he might need more time. Elmer Reyes has 55 games at AAA and did slash .295/.329/.422 between Mississippi and Gwinnett last year. While not the prospect Peraza is, Reyes does provide depth.
2B Depth Chart
1. La Stella
2. Gosselin
3. Pena
The Braves could go after a free agent option, though the market isn't that exciting. They could also make a trade, but they probably will not go for any option that is signed beyond 2015. Howie Kendrick has been mentioned as a possibility as the Angels are shopping him. Still, my bet is that they don't do anything and see if TLS/Goose can hold down the fort before Peraza is ready. If TLS does perform, the Braves could try to trade him while his value is high and benefit there as well. While TLS wasn't all that impressive in 2015, his skill set could still provide use. Regardless, you have to imagine that the Braves are both fearful that second base could be an issue next year and comforted by the quantity of options. This is why Bonifacio could be brought back. One more option won't kill them.
Wednesday, June 11, 2014
Favorite Braves List - Shortstop
It's time to add an important position to our list. Without a shortstop, our group of starters might get very upset. To appease them, I'm going to add the best defensive shortstop many never got the chance to play with. In addition, with our catcher defecting to New York and the #3 starter enjoying the San Francisco scene, our new shortstop is the only active member of our team still in Atlanta. Fortunately, he'll be here for awhile.
(Previous information on this series can be found here. Of importance, this is not a best list, but a favorites list since I started to follow the Braves. That limits options from 1991-to-now.)
Favorite Braves List (so far)
Ace Starter - Greg Maddux
#2 Starter - John Smoltz
#3 Starter - Tim Hudson
Catcher - Brian McCann
First Base - Fred McGriff
Second Base - Marcus Giles
Some Honorable Mentions - Rafael Furcal would have likely gotten this spot before his super public contract spat with the Braves. Now, he probably wouldn't have held it for long, but it would have been his. Edgar Renteria was a guy you could count on. Special honorable mention to Rafael Belliard. My dad got me into watching the Braves. Maybe we were too lazy to change the channel after WCW Saturday Night went off. Anyway, he loved Belliard and I even chose #2 in little league because of it. My father passed 20 years ago, but every time I read or think of Raffy, I think of him.
Favorite Braves List - Shortstop
Andrelton Simmons
While there have been some half-way decent shortstops that have played in Atlanta over the last few years, including some pretty good defenders, none come close to the greatness that is Simba. Still only 24 for another few months, Simmons arrived in the majors in 2012 and for 265 games, he has showed a maddeningly inconsistent bat, but a knack for defensive gems. When the Big Three pitched with Andruw Jones in center, they were giving an advantage that was unique...a player with defensive capabilities that were well above the good defenders at their position and to make things better, that player played a prime defensive position.
Simmons was picked out of the second round in 2010 from Western Oklahoma State College. While many teams were intrigued his ability to pitch, the Braves were more interested in Simmons playing shortstop than striking out batters while coming out of the pen. For his part, Simmons was overjoyed as he wanted to play in the field, not pitch.
After a year at Danville where he hit .276/.340/.356, Simmons headed to Lynchburg in 2011, skipping right past Rome. He spent the entire season as a Hillcat, where he led the league in hitting among players that received 350 PA or more. While he is not a great basestealer, he did finish 10th in the league with 26 steals, a mark that led the Hillcats. He added 35 doubles while playing defense that was too good for the Carolina League.
His minor league time would come to a close 44 games into the 2012 season. Simmons was hitting .293/.372/.420 with a career best 9.9 BB% for Mississippi when, tired of the defense and weak production at the plate from Tyler Pastornicky, the Braves handed shortstop over to Simmons. An injury sustained sliding hands-first into second limited Simmons to just 49 games, but he posted a 2.2 fWAR on the heels of a good stick and an even better glove. Expectations were deliriously high in 2013 when Simmons was penciled in for his first full season and a leadoff spot, setting the table for a contender.
The glove was, if anything, better than advertised and the hype was already pretty big. He posted a series of historic marks including the second best short-stop UZR and the most DRS (overall) since 2004. The series of youtube videos bringing focus to how amazing his defense is can be easily searched, viewed, and re-viewed. At the risk of going too far, it's practically porn watching Simmons do his thing because it is so above even good shortstops.
Unfortunately, his promising bat has not been nearly as productive. He doesn't need to hit to be one of the best shortstops in the game, but it would be nice to hit a little. He has good pop, as evidence by his 17 homeruns last year and .140 career ISO. But he makes a ridiculous amount of outs and his career .302 OBP is disappointing considering what he was posting before 2013, especially considering his his bat was so good when he came up.
Regardless of his hitting prowess, or lack there of, Simmons is easily my favorite shortstop since I started to follow the Braves. I could watch him and Jason Heyward play defense all day. Their skills are just too sweet. If he starts to hit...watch out. Simmons could become a 6 fWAR guy rather quickly.
In the mean time, I'll be overjoyed to watch him play defense at short through, at least, the 2020 season as the Braves inked Simmons to a mega deal before this season. He'll earn every dollar he's paid.
(Previous information on this series can be found here. Of importance, this is not a best list, but a favorites list since I started to follow the Braves. That limits options from 1991-to-now.)
Favorite Braves List (so far)
Ace Starter - Greg Maddux
#2 Starter - John Smoltz
#3 Starter - Tim Hudson
Catcher - Brian McCann
First Base - Fred McGriff
Second Base - Marcus Giles
Some Honorable Mentions - Rafael Furcal would have likely gotten this spot before his super public contract spat with the Braves. Now, he probably wouldn't have held it for long, but it would have been his. Edgar Renteria was a guy you could count on. Special honorable mention to Rafael Belliard. My dad got me into watching the Braves. Maybe we were too lazy to change the channel after WCW Saturday Night went off. Anyway, he loved Belliard and I even chose #2 in little league because of it. My father passed 20 years ago, but every time I read or think of Raffy, I think of him.
Favorite Braves List - Shortstop
Andrelton Simmons
While there have been some half-way decent shortstops that have played in Atlanta over the last few years, including some pretty good defenders, none come close to the greatness that is Simba. Still only 24 for another few months, Simmons arrived in the majors in 2012 and for 265 games, he has showed a maddeningly inconsistent bat, but a knack for defensive gems. When the Big Three pitched with Andruw Jones in center, they were giving an advantage that was unique...a player with defensive capabilities that were well above the good defenders at their position and to make things better, that player played a prime defensive position.
Simmons was picked out of the second round in 2010 from Western Oklahoma State College. While many teams were intrigued his ability to pitch, the Braves were more interested in Simmons playing shortstop than striking out batters while coming out of the pen. For his part, Simmons was overjoyed as he wanted to play in the field, not pitch.
After a year at Danville where he hit .276/.340/.356, Simmons headed to Lynchburg in 2011, skipping right past Rome. He spent the entire season as a Hillcat, where he led the league in hitting among players that received 350 PA or more. While he is not a great basestealer, he did finish 10th in the league with 26 steals, a mark that led the Hillcats. He added 35 doubles while playing defense that was too good for the Carolina League.
His minor league time would come to a close 44 games into the 2012 season. Simmons was hitting .293/.372/.420 with a career best 9.9 BB% for Mississippi when, tired of the defense and weak production at the plate from Tyler Pastornicky, the Braves handed shortstop over to Simmons. An injury sustained sliding hands-first into second limited Simmons to just 49 games, but he posted a 2.2 fWAR on the heels of a good stick and an even better glove. Expectations were deliriously high in 2013 when Simmons was penciled in for his first full season and a leadoff spot, setting the table for a contender.
The glove was, if anything, better than advertised and the hype was already pretty big. He posted a series of historic marks including the second best short-stop UZR and the most DRS (overall) since 2004. The series of youtube videos bringing focus to how amazing his defense is can be easily searched, viewed, and re-viewed. At the risk of going too far, it's practically porn watching Simmons do his thing because it is so above even good shortstops.
Unfortunately, his promising bat has not been nearly as productive. He doesn't need to hit to be one of the best shortstops in the game, but it would be nice to hit a little. He has good pop, as evidence by his 17 homeruns last year and .140 career ISO. But he makes a ridiculous amount of outs and his career .302 OBP is disappointing considering what he was posting before 2013, especially considering his his bat was so good when he came up.
Regardless of his hitting prowess, or lack there of, Simmons is easily my favorite shortstop since I started to follow the Braves. I could watch him and Jason Heyward play defense all day. Their skills are just too sweet. If he starts to hit...watch out. Simmons could become a 6 fWAR guy rather quickly.
In the mean time, I'll be overjoyed to watch him play defense at short through, at least, the 2020 season as the Braves inked Simmons to a mega deal before this season. He'll earn every dollar he's paid.
Monday, June 2, 2014
The Best (and Worst) of May
May was a month to forget for the Braves, even though they ended the month with a two game lead in the NL East. That was more a product of how poorly the Nationals have played and average the Marlins have been. The Braves finished 13-16 in May, a stark change from a 17-6 April. While the team had a great swing-and-miss pitching staff, striking out 8.5 K/9, their ridiculous rotation work of April (2.32 ERA) fell to a more believable 3.48 ERA in May. That change led to more loses because the offense was generally the same offense that it was in May. Less power, better OBP, and an OPS fall from .670 in April to .676 in May. Toward the end of the month, the offense began to turn a corner, banging out nearly nine hits a game and 4 walks over the final 13 games of May, leading to 4.2 R/G. Something to build upon.
With that mind, time to introduce the Rookie of the Month and the Worst and Best position players and pitchers.
Rookie of the Month
David Hale...Pickings are slim as the Braves, despite being so young, don't have many players you can classify as a rookie. That leaves Hale, who followed up a good month out of the rotation with 13.1 scoreless innings in May. He actually hasn't been scored upon since the first inning of his last start against the Reds. Since that early run on April 26th, Hale hasn't been scored upon in the last 23 innings. There are concerns as he didn't really dominate in May. After all, he walked six, hit a pair, and struck out just two. Still, as a long reliever, few have sparkled as bright as Hale. He'll have more trouble defending this award from recent callups in June.
Worst Position Player of the Month
Dan Uggla...I really despise making this choice since he's basically been benched, but even when he did come to the plate, he failed to produce. He managed four singles in 30 PA and a pitcher-like .313 OPS. Ouchie. Even Tyler Pastornicky got his OPS over .500, though that's hardly a good thing. Keeping Uggla at this point is akin to hitting a deer and letting it suffer until it dies instead of putting it down to save it the pain. Maybe that's hyperbole...though I really don't think so.
Dishonorable Mention - Pastornicky, Ramiro Pena
Worst Pitcher of the Month
Ervin Santana...After a ridiculous beginning to the season that included a 1.99 ERA in his first 40.2 ING with the Braves from April 9th to May 10th, Santana struggled, giving up at least five runs or more in his next three starts and not exactly pitching that well on the final day of May. Santana's not the April guy, but he's also not the May guy. He's somewhere in the middle and will still contribute even if Braves fans have ridiculously unfair expectations of him.
Dishonorable Mention - Ian Thomas (10.8 BB/9? Ugly)
Best Position Player of the Month
Justin Upton and Freddie Freeman (tie)...While I lean toward solely awarding the former because of better power and defense, it's fair to give Freeman a share of the title. While playing in every game of May, Freeman slashed .276/.387/.467 with 3 HR, a 142 wRC+, and .379 wOBA. Upton matched Freeman in the latter two categories and hit a team-high five homeruns to go with a trio of steals. It really is surprising how bad the Braves offense was in May with these two, plus the solid production of Jason Heyward (.373 OBP, .346 wOBA, 120 wRC+). It gives us hope that the Braves recent offensive production can not only be sustained, but increased.
Honorable Mention - Heyward (5.5 UZR)
Best Pitcher of the Month
Aaron Harang...At some point, this has to stop. Despite a .420 BABIP in May, Harang still only gave up a 3.68 ERA to go with his 1.36 FIP. He tossed 29.1 homerless innings while walking just 1.53 BB/9 to go with a 10.43 K/9, best among the Braves starters. But because a win-loss record is worth about as much as my collection of beanie babies, Harang went 1-2 in May and entered June with a 4-4 record. In seven of his eleven starts, including three in May, Harang received three or fewer runs of support. Nevertheless, when we talk bargain pickups this season, few have provided so much value as Harang has and been paid so little.
Honorable Mention - Craig Kimbrel (13.5 K/9, 1.57 FIP), Julio Teheran (2.21 ERA)
With that mind, time to introduce the Rookie of the Month and the Worst and Best position players and pitchers.
Rookie of the Month
David Hale...Pickings are slim as the Braves, despite being so young, don't have many players you can classify as a rookie. That leaves Hale, who followed up a good month out of the rotation with 13.1 scoreless innings in May. He actually hasn't been scored upon since the first inning of his last start against the Reds. Since that early run on April 26th, Hale hasn't been scored upon in the last 23 innings. There are concerns as he didn't really dominate in May. After all, he walked six, hit a pair, and struck out just two. Still, as a long reliever, few have sparkled as bright as Hale. He'll have more trouble defending this award from recent callups in June.
Worst Position Player of the Month
Dan Uggla...I really despise making this choice since he's basically been benched, but even when he did come to the plate, he failed to produce. He managed four singles in 30 PA and a pitcher-like .313 OPS. Ouchie. Even Tyler Pastornicky got his OPS over .500, though that's hardly a good thing. Keeping Uggla at this point is akin to hitting a deer and letting it suffer until it dies instead of putting it down to save it the pain. Maybe that's hyperbole...though I really don't think so.
Dishonorable Mention - Pastornicky, Ramiro Pena
Worst Pitcher of the Month
Ervin Santana...After a ridiculous beginning to the season that included a 1.99 ERA in his first 40.2 ING with the Braves from April 9th to May 10th, Santana struggled, giving up at least five runs or more in his next three starts and not exactly pitching that well on the final day of May. Santana's not the April guy, but he's also not the May guy. He's somewhere in the middle and will still contribute even if Braves fans have ridiculously unfair expectations of him.
Dishonorable Mention - Ian Thomas (10.8 BB/9? Ugly)
Best Position Player of the Month
Justin Upton and Freddie Freeman (tie)...While I lean toward solely awarding the former because of better power and defense, it's fair to give Freeman a share of the title. While playing in every game of May, Freeman slashed .276/.387/.467 with 3 HR, a 142 wRC+, and .379 wOBA. Upton matched Freeman in the latter two categories and hit a team-high five homeruns to go with a trio of steals. It really is surprising how bad the Braves offense was in May with these two, plus the solid production of Jason Heyward (.373 OBP, .346 wOBA, 120 wRC+). It gives us hope that the Braves recent offensive production can not only be sustained, but increased.
Honorable Mention - Heyward (5.5 UZR)
Best Pitcher of the Month
Aaron Harang...At some point, this has to stop. Despite a .420 BABIP in May, Harang still only gave up a 3.68 ERA to go with his 1.36 FIP. He tossed 29.1 homerless innings while walking just 1.53 BB/9 to go with a 10.43 K/9, best among the Braves starters. But because a win-loss record is worth about as much as my collection of beanie babies, Harang went 1-2 in May and entered June with a 4-4 record. In seven of his eleven starts, including three in May, Harang received three or fewer runs of support. Nevertheless, when we talk bargain pickups this season, few have provided so much value as Harang has and been paid so little.
Honorable Mention - Craig Kimbrel (13.5 K/9, 1.57 FIP), Julio Teheran (2.21 ERA)
Saturday, May 31, 2014
Shae Simmons Gets the Call
There was little doubt that 23 year-old reliever Shae Simmons was headed up the ladder to an eventual appearance in Atlanta, but it was still surprising it happened so fast. The news struck twitter around midnight on Friday night and those awake were immediately excited about the pending arrival of Simmons, who will skip Gwinnett to join the Braves for the second-of-three with the Marlins Saturday afternoon.
Simmons was a 22nd rounder out of little Southeast Missouri State in the 2012 draft and the right-hander wasn't drafted because of his stats, but because the scouts were intrigued enough to give Simmons a shot. The Missouri native, who majored in criminal justice while pitching for the Redhawks, was miscast as a starter and saw his stock rise while playing summer ball and appearing as a reliever when he could delivery max effort and a fastball that, at the time, comfortably sat at 96 mph.
It would soon add a couple of digits as Simmons joined the Braves organization after the 2012 draft and dealt with some control issues while striking out 36 in 24.2 ING in rookie ball. With the Braves cleaning up his delivery and his continued maturity, Simmons would break out last season, starting with Rome and ending with Mississippi with no natural stop in Lynchburg. In 50 games, Simmons posted a brilliant 0.99 WHIP, 13.8 K/9, and improved 3.7 BB/9. He continued that work in 20 games this season with Mississippi as he struck out 30 in 23 innings compared to six walks. In 101 innings in the minors, Simmons has K'd 148 and never given up a homerun.
In addition to that fastball that includes great natural sink, Simmons mixes in a slider that is growing more consistent. Occasionally, he'll mix in a changeup that, when mixed with his fastball, leaves batters flailing over the plate. The diminutive righty has received comparisons to Craig Kimbrel, which is about as high of a compliment as a reliever can receive.
In related news, for the second time this season, Ian Thomas is headed back to the minors. I like Thomas and believe he can be an effective pitcher at this level. However, he needs a breaking pitch and the slider isn't there just yet.
As of right now (and I'm writing this late into the night), the Braves have yet to make a corresponding 40-man roster move, though there are options. As discussed in a previous post, the Braves could DFA Jordan Schafer from the roster and call up one of the outfielders already on the 40-man roster. They could also DFA a struggling pitcher who is taking up room on the 40 man-roster. Braves lefty Carlos Perez has not pitched in a month and a half and could be ripe for a trip to the 60-day DL.
Either way, the Braves have proven over the last few days that they are not going to sit back idly while waiting for some ridiculous Super 2 deadline to pass. The time to compete is now and Tommy La Stella and Simmons make the Braves better than Tyler Pastornicky and Thomas.
Simmons was a 22nd rounder out of little Southeast Missouri State in the 2012 draft and the right-hander wasn't drafted because of his stats, but because the scouts were intrigued enough to give Simmons a shot. The Missouri native, who majored in criminal justice while pitching for the Redhawks, was miscast as a starter and saw his stock rise while playing summer ball and appearing as a reliever when he could delivery max effort and a fastball that, at the time, comfortably sat at 96 mph.
It would soon add a couple of digits as Simmons joined the Braves organization after the 2012 draft and dealt with some control issues while striking out 36 in 24.2 ING in rookie ball. With the Braves cleaning up his delivery and his continued maturity, Simmons would break out last season, starting with Rome and ending with Mississippi with no natural stop in Lynchburg. In 50 games, Simmons posted a brilliant 0.99 WHIP, 13.8 K/9, and improved 3.7 BB/9. He continued that work in 20 games this season with Mississippi as he struck out 30 in 23 innings compared to six walks. In 101 innings in the minors, Simmons has K'd 148 and never given up a homerun.
In addition to that fastball that includes great natural sink, Simmons mixes in a slider that is growing more consistent. Occasionally, he'll mix in a changeup that, when mixed with his fastball, leaves batters flailing over the plate. The diminutive righty has received comparisons to Craig Kimbrel, which is about as high of a compliment as a reliever can receive.
In related news, for the second time this season, Ian Thomas is headed back to the minors. I like Thomas and believe he can be an effective pitcher at this level. However, he needs a breaking pitch and the slider isn't there just yet.
As of right now (and I'm writing this late into the night), the Braves have yet to make a corresponding 40-man roster move, though there are options. As discussed in a previous post, the Braves could DFA Jordan Schafer from the roster and call up one of the outfielders already on the 40-man roster. They could also DFA a struggling pitcher who is taking up room on the 40 man-roster. Braves lefty Carlos Perez has not pitched in a month and a half and could be ripe for a trip to the 60-day DL.
Either way, the Braves have proven over the last few days that they are not going to sit back idly while waiting for some ridiculous Super 2 deadline to pass. The time to compete is now and Tommy La Stella and Simmons make the Braves better than Tyler Pastornicky and Thomas.
Friday, May 30, 2014
They've Had Enough Time
(Stats Accurate Entering Thursday Night...)
The Braves need offensive production. Over the last 30 days, only the Twins (85 RS) and the injury-ravaged Reds (82 RS) have scored fewer runs than the Braves at 86. Most concerning is the sudden lack of power. Atlanta's bread-and-butter of walks and homers was already lacking in the former this season, but over the last 30 days, they have only sent 22 balls to the bleachers and their .129 ISO is good for 19th in the majors. It's hard to score runs when over 70% of your plate appearances end in outs, though. The ugly fact is that the Braves, both recently and over this season, have made an abundance of outs. Only three teams are worse than the Braves at turning trips to the plate into non-outs. Right now, as a team, the Braves are essentially Jeff Francoeur. That's not a particularly lovely idea.
I fully respect the idea that you give your team roughly 60 days to figure it out. Even when I play in Out of the Park, I typically won't mess with my roster until June. With the Braves failing to run away with the East despite the struggles of the Nationals, the Braves are being forced to make moves and it looks like they are on board with the idea. On Wednesday, they demoted Tyler Pastornicky to the minors in favor of Tommy La Stella, who started his first game later that night. Pastornicky is a fine 25th guy on a team with no clearly defined holes who can use his flexibility, speed, and decent bat to help out a team. On a team with one of the worst offenses in baseball, Pastornicky was a bad use of a spot. Though I am not sure just how good La Stella will be at this level, he's worth the roster spot as Braves 2B's are slashing .172/.257/.256.
But is La Stella enough? And what more can the Braves do?
Well, the big problem with Atlanta is that they lack much flexibility here. The only position that lacks someone signed beyond this year is catcher, where Evan Gattis is second on the team with 13 homers despite a .294 OBP. However, what was supposed to be a strength (the bench) has been a failure this season and can be tweaked. Here are the slash lines of the bench with the exception of the already shipped out Pastornicky.
Ramiro Pena, 79 PA, .183/.256/.310, 3 2B, 2 HR, 7 BB, 20 K
Gerald Laird, 67 PA, .217/.299/.267, 3 2B, 7 BB, 16 K
Ryan Doumit, 57 PA, .214/.228/.304, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 15 K
Jordan Schafer, 34 PA, .103/.188/.172, 2 2B, 3 SB, 3 BB, 7 K
Looking at baseball-reference's page, for Schafer, there is something I rarely see for an offensive player. A -0 adjusted OPS. That's awful.
However, there aren't easy answers here. Pena is the only Brave on the team now capable of playing shortstop if Andrelton Simmons misses a game, as he did on Wednesday. Laird is the primary backup catcher as it seems Fredi Gonzalez has seen enough of Doumit behind the plate. And Doumit has been more productive of late and gives the bench some element of power.
But there is Schafer and the Braves do have a few options they could look at, both of which are already on the 40-man roster. Todd Cunningham is hitting .296/.341/.388 with Gwinnett. While not the base stealer Schafer is, Cunningham provides another switch-hit bat, is plenty quick in his own right, and a career .278/.349/.364 line. He's a capable defender in center, though not a world-beater, and would likely play the position better at this level than Schafer. Old Brave stand-by and notorious bat-licker Jose Constanza is around, though the 30 year-old has been hurt this season. With nearly 300 games at Gwinnett since 2011, including 100 games in Atlanta, the Braves know what they have with Constanza. He's powerless, doesn't walk, and is dependent on making contact. The Braves have a third option, utility guy Joey Terdoslavich. While Terdo has not hit for much power this season and has slashed .261/.337/.733, he posted a .926 OPS with Gwinnett last year while making his way to the majors.
Any of those three, especially the younger options, could replace Schafer. The former prospect is playing on borrowed time after slashing .309/.397/.463 through the first three months last year. He would spend some time hurt, but also batted just .176/.252/.213 down the stretch. This season, he has struggled to find playing time behind the starters and lost some at-bats to Doumit. Still, with nearly 1200 PA in his major league career, Schafer has slashed just .224/.308/.307. What more do you need to see?
There is also the conundrum of Dan Uggla. With almost $9M remaining of his contract this year and another $13M due to him next season, the Braves naturally are not excited by the prospect of releasing Uggla and taking an entire loss. After a decent start to this season, Uggla's slash sits at .177/.254/.257 with just two homeruns. Over the last few years, Uggla hasn't had a lot of pluses to his game, but he at least walked (including a league-leading 94 in 2012) and hit homers (79 of them in his first 3 years in ATL). Now, he's doing neither and worse, Fredi has felt there was no other solution but to indefinitely bench Uggla. Since April 27th, Uggla has played in just 11 games, getting 8 starts, and left on the bench for the entirety of 15 games. He has had a few nice moments during this run, but like the line goes from Little Big League, if you get excited over a seeing eye single (or more walks in Uggla's case), don't you think something's wrong?
Theoretically, the Braves could cut Uggla and bring up one of the three previously mentioned as possible Schafer replacements. Unfortunately, there aren't many more options beyond them. Ernesto Mejia's seven homers still paces Gwinnett and he now plays overseas. Guys like Cedric Hunter, Mark Hamilton, and Sean Kazmar are long-shots to ever make an impact in the bigs. Philip Gosselin has hit .333 and could probably provide some utility infield work.
To me, if they don't believe in Uggla and are convinced his career is over, it's time to move on. Cut Schafer and Uggla, bring up Cunningham and Terdo, and see what you have. At the very worst, you open a spot or two for possible trade acquisitions or waiver pickups. At best, the two switch-hitters give the Braves a wealth of options late in games against relievers to go with Doumit and Pena, also switch-hitters.
At the end of the day, barring a really surprising trade, the Braves will live and die with this lineup. Either B.J. Upton continues to improve or the Braves production in center will suffer. Jason Heyward will either have a strong summer or he won't. Chris Johnson will get some luck back on his side or he won't. There isn't much beyond inserting La Stella into the lineup lately that the Braves can do. But, every little bit might help. Re-working the bench might not do enough, but it's something that could improve the team and the best teams maximize every roster spot.
The Braves need offensive production. Over the last 30 days, only the Twins (85 RS) and the injury-ravaged Reds (82 RS) have scored fewer runs than the Braves at 86. Most concerning is the sudden lack of power. Atlanta's bread-and-butter of walks and homers was already lacking in the former this season, but over the last 30 days, they have only sent 22 balls to the bleachers and their .129 ISO is good for 19th in the majors. It's hard to score runs when over 70% of your plate appearances end in outs, though. The ugly fact is that the Braves, both recently and over this season, have made an abundance of outs. Only three teams are worse than the Braves at turning trips to the plate into non-outs. Right now, as a team, the Braves are essentially Jeff Francoeur. That's not a particularly lovely idea.
I fully respect the idea that you give your team roughly 60 days to figure it out. Even when I play in Out of the Park, I typically won't mess with my roster until June. With the Braves failing to run away with the East despite the struggles of the Nationals, the Braves are being forced to make moves and it looks like they are on board with the idea. On Wednesday, they demoted Tyler Pastornicky to the minors in favor of Tommy La Stella, who started his first game later that night. Pastornicky is a fine 25th guy on a team with no clearly defined holes who can use his flexibility, speed, and decent bat to help out a team. On a team with one of the worst offenses in baseball, Pastornicky was a bad use of a spot. Though I am not sure just how good La Stella will be at this level, he's worth the roster spot as Braves 2B's are slashing .172/.257/.256.
But is La Stella enough? And what more can the Braves do?
Well, the big problem with Atlanta is that they lack much flexibility here. The only position that lacks someone signed beyond this year is catcher, where Evan Gattis is second on the team with 13 homers despite a .294 OBP. However, what was supposed to be a strength (the bench) has been a failure this season and can be tweaked. Here are the slash lines of the bench with the exception of the already shipped out Pastornicky.
Ramiro Pena, 79 PA, .183/.256/.310, 3 2B, 2 HR, 7 BB, 20 K
Gerald Laird, 67 PA, .217/.299/.267, 3 2B, 7 BB, 16 K
Ryan Doumit, 57 PA, .214/.228/.304, 2 2B, 1 HR, 1 BB, 15 K
Jordan Schafer, 34 PA, .103/.188/.172, 2 2B, 3 SB, 3 BB, 7 K
Looking at baseball-reference's page, for Schafer, there is something I rarely see for an offensive player. A -0 adjusted OPS. That's awful.
However, there aren't easy answers here. Pena is the only Brave on the team now capable of playing shortstop if Andrelton Simmons misses a game, as he did on Wednesday. Laird is the primary backup catcher as it seems Fredi Gonzalez has seen enough of Doumit behind the plate. And Doumit has been more productive of late and gives the bench some element of power.
But there is Schafer and the Braves do have a few options they could look at, both of which are already on the 40-man roster. Todd Cunningham is hitting .296/.341/.388 with Gwinnett. While not the base stealer Schafer is, Cunningham provides another switch-hit bat, is plenty quick in his own right, and a career .278/.349/.364 line. He's a capable defender in center, though not a world-beater, and would likely play the position better at this level than Schafer. Old Brave stand-by and notorious bat-licker Jose Constanza is around, though the 30 year-old has been hurt this season. With nearly 300 games at Gwinnett since 2011, including 100 games in Atlanta, the Braves know what they have with Constanza. He's powerless, doesn't walk, and is dependent on making contact. The Braves have a third option, utility guy Joey Terdoslavich. While Terdo has not hit for much power this season and has slashed .261/.337/.733, he posted a .926 OPS with Gwinnett last year while making his way to the majors.
Any of those three, especially the younger options, could replace Schafer. The former prospect is playing on borrowed time after slashing .309/.397/.463 through the first three months last year. He would spend some time hurt, but also batted just .176/.252/.213 down the stretch. This season, he has struggled to find playing time behind the starters and lost some at-bats to Doumit. Still, with nearly 1200 PA in his major league career, Schafer has slashed just .224/.308/.307. What more do you need to see?
There is also the conundrum of Dan Uggla. With almost $9M remaining of his contract this year and another $13M due to him next season, the Braves naturally are not excited by the prospect of releasing Uggla and taking an entire loss. After a decent start to this season, Uggla's slash sits at .177/.254/.257 with just two homeruns. Over the last few years, Uggla hasn't had a lot of pluses to his game, but he at least walked (including a league-leading 94 in 2012) and hit homers (79 of them in his first 3 years in ATL). Now, he's doing neither and worse, Fredi has felt there was no other solution but to indefinitely bench Uggla. Since April 27th, Uggla has played in just 11 games, getting 8 starts, and left on the bench for the entirety of 15 games. He has had a few nice moments during this run, but like the line goes from Little Big League, if you get excited over a seeing eye single (or more walks in Uggla's case), don't you think something's wrong?
Theoretically, the Braves could cut Uggla and bring up one of the three previously mentioned as possible Schafer replacements. Unfortunately, there aren't many more options beyond them. Ernesto Mejia's seven homers still paces Gwinnett and he now plays overseas. Guys like Cedric Hunter, Mark Hamilton, and Sean Kazmar are long-shots to ever make an impact in the bigs. Philip Gosselin has hit .333 and could probably provide some utility infield work.
To me, if they don't believe in Uggla and are convinced his career is over, it's time to move on. Cut Schafer and Uggla, bring up Cunningham and Terdo, and see what you have. At the very worst, you open a spot or two for possible trade acquisitions or waiver pickups. At best, the two switch-hitters give the Braves a wealth of options late in games against relievers to go with Doumit and Pena, also switch-hitters.
At the end of the day, barring a really surprising trade, the Braves will live and die with this lineup. Either B.J. Upton continues to improve or the Braves production in center will suffer. Jason Heyward will either have a strong summer or he won't. Chris Johnson will get some luck back on his side or he won't. There isn't much beyond inserting La Stella into the lineup lately that the Braves can do. But, every little bit might help. Re-working the bench might not do enough, but it's something that could improve the team and the best teams maximize every roster spot.
Sunday, May 18, 2014
Random Prospect Sunday: Phil Gosselin
Over the last two summers, I have tried to pay attention to the non-prospects with this column. With the help of random.org's number generator, I would get a random number that would help me land on a player in the Braves system. I called the column "Random Prospect of the Day," which didn't make a bunch of sense considering I only did the column once a week on Sundays. With that in mind, I'm going to alter the title of the article to be more representative of what this column does. For the most part, the players selected over the last two years were organizational filler. Occasionally, there would be a real prospect. Today, we get a new type of a player. A guy who has already made it to the bigs and is looking to get back. To look back at the previous columns, feel free to click here.
Philip Gosselin, middle name David, was born on October 3rd, 1988. On the previous day, the Braves had finished a 54-106 campaign that saw them lose 1-0 in Cincinnati. The Braves would finish 39.5 games back. Gosselin was born in West Chester, Pennslyvania and eventually attended Malvern Prep High School, where former Padres catcher Ben Davis went to school. Undrafted out of high school, Gosselin went south to the University of Virginia and slashed .305/.391/.433 in his freshman season, though he wasn't an everyday player. That changed in his sophomore season where he slashed .310/.405/.475 with 24 steals. "The Goose" was a regular around the field, playing second, short, and in the outfield. He also achieved some success when that May, he destroyed a first-pitch fastball from Stephen Strasburg. Gosselin turned on the 97 mph pitch and UVA handed Strasburg his only loss of 2009.
The following season, 2010, saw Gosselin become a draft-able prospect. He finished his junior season by hitting .382/.466/.622 with 22 2B, 11 HR, and 18 steals. Gosselin also settled into a regular position for the first time, becoming the regular second-sacker for the Cavs. His strong campaign gave him a possible third round grade, but the Braves selected him with their fifth round pick, the 164th overall selection. Gosselin signed for a $150,000 bonus rather than return to UVA. Later, Gosselin would become the fifth pick from the 2010 draft to get to the bigs for Atlanta, though only 2nd rounder Andrelton Simmons and 23rd rounder Evan Gattis have stuck.
Gosselin would be assigned to Rome, skipping past stops at the Braves' rookie teams. Again, he settled into a regular at 2B, hitting .294 over 57 games for R-Braves with 9 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, and 7 steals. He also on-based .374. In their final season with the Braves, the Myrtle Beach Pelicans needed an extra middle infielder over the last week so Gosselin finished up 2010 with a week at the beach.
The former UVA product would remain at high-A, this time with the Braves new minor league affiliate, the Lynchburg Hillcats. He was the everyday guy at second, though he committed 17 errors. He finished .264/.324/.392, a letdown after his solid 2010 summer. Things didn't get any better in 2012, this time with Mississippi, when he slashed .242/.317/.320, though he set a personal best with 12 steals. He also began to log time in the outfield, possibly beginning to grow into his possible utility role.
2013 was hardly an impressive season for Gosselin. He hit just .243/.291/.312 over 59 games with Mississippi, but was still promoted to Gwinnett in June of that season, where he would improve his numbers only slightly. He was used slightly more as a utility guy as well. Mixed in during his summer with Gwinnett was a trip to Atlanta to replace Tyler Pastornicky, who had been ran over by Jason Heyward. Gosselin played in four games with the Braves, including one start at second, and went 2 for 6 with a walk and 2 K's. Unfortunately, he missed Strasburg's start. He played in the game, but that was the day Strasburg hit Justin Upton and threw behind Simmons before getting ejected in the second.
The Goose was out-righted off the 40-man roster after the season, but stayed in the system to rejoin Gwinnett. Through May 16th, the results have been the best of his professional career. Coming into Saturday's games, Gosselin was hitting .331/.358/.437 with 11 doubles. He also totally became a utility player off the bench. So far this season, he has been a regular at second, third, short, and left.
At his best, Gosselin is a contact hitter relying on grinding out hits. At his worst, he is organizational filler and a good character guy. He possibly could develop into a nice utility guy off the bench, a 25th man who, with a good BABIP, will stick around for a year or two, especially on an AL bench.
And with the way the Braves aren't hitting, maybe the Braves could use Gosselin.
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| Credit: AP |
The following season, 2010, saw Gosselin become a draft-able prospect. He finished his junior season by hitting .382/.466/.622 with 22 2B, 11 HR, and 18 steals. Gosselin also settled into a regular position for the first time, becoming the regular second-sacker for the Cavs. His strong campaign gave him a possible third round grade, but the Braves selected him with their fifth round pick, the 164th overall selection. Gosselin signed for a $150,000 bonus rather than return to UVA. Later, Gosselin would become the fifth pick from the 2010 draft to get to the bigs for Atlanta, though only 2nd rounder Andrelton Simmons and 23rd rounder Evan Gattis have stuck.
Gosselin would be assigned to Rome, skipping past stops at the Braves' rookie teams. Again, he settled into a regular at 2B, hitting .294 over 57 games for R-Braves with 9 2B, 3 3B, 2 HR, and 7 steals. He also on-based .374. In their final season with the Braves, the Myrtle Beach Pelicans needed an extra middle infielder over the last week so Gosselin finished up 2010 with a week at the beach.
The former UVA product would remain at high-A, this time with the Braves new minor league affiliate, the Lynchburg Hillcats. He was the everyday guy at second, though he committed 17 errors. He finished .264/.324/.392, a letdown after his solid 2010 summer. Things didn't get any better in 2012, this time with Mississippi, when he slashed .242/.317/.320, though he set a personal best with 12 steals. He also began to log time in the outfield, possibly beginning to grow into his possible utility role.
2013 was hardly an impressive season for Gosselin. He hit just .243/.291/.312 over 59 games with Mississippi, but was still promoted to Gwinnett in June of that season, where he would improve his numbers only slightly. He was used slightly more as a utility guy as well. Mixed in during his summer with Gwinnett was a trip to Atlanta to replace Tyler Pastornicky, who had been ran over by Jason Heyward. Gosselin played in four games with the Braves, including one start at second, and went 2 for 6 with a walk and 2 K's. Unfortunately, he missed Strasburg's start. He played in the game, but that was the day Strasburg hit Justin Upton and threw behind Simmons before getting ejected in the second.
The Goose was out-righted off the 40-man roster after the season, but stayed in the system to rejoin Gwinnett. Through May 16th, the results have been the best of his professional career. Coming into Saturday's games, Gosselin was hitting .331/.358/.437 with 11 doubles. He also totally became a utility player off the bench. So far this season, he has been a regular at second, third, short, and left.
At his best, Gosselin is a contact hitter relying on grinding out hits. At his worst, he is organizational filler and a good character guy. He possibly could develop into a nice utility guy off the bench, a 25th man who, with a good BABIP, will stick around for a year or two, especially on an AL bench.
And with the way the Braves aren't hitting, maybe the Braves could use Gosselin.
Friday, May 16, 2014
Has anyone used the "Braves offense is offensive" tagline yet?
The Braves can't hit. We all know it, we've all seen it, and we are all pissed off about it. Last season, the Braves finished fourth in the National League in runs scored. This season, they are just two runs scored ahead of the Padres for next to last. And they trail 13th in RS by nearly 20 runs.
So, they aren't scoring.
But why? Well, there is only a couple of changes from last year's roster. Yeah, Evan Gattis replaced Brian McCann, but the rest of the starting lineup is the same. Ryan Doumit and Tyler Pastornicky are on the bench and Reed Johnson and Juan Francisco/Elliot Johnson are gone, but idealy, they would seem like an improvement.
Just what in the hell is the problem? Individually, very few players are hitting better than they did last season. As bad as Dan Uggla was last season, he has reached new levels of suck. So much suck that he's sitting on the bench, getting splinters in his ass. Andrelton Simmons still ain't really hitting that well, but at least he's not leading off. Chris Johnson has started to hit, but his production is down. And Jason Heyward leads the team in walks and that's about the only positive you can throw at him when he has a bat in his hands. B.J. Upton is actually better. Somewhat. To a small extent.
On the bench, Ramiro Pena's surprising 2013 has disappeared. Gerald Laird did his best David Ross last season and has reverted back to Gerald Laird. Jordan Schafer is awful. Holy hell, the Braves are starting Pastornicky? PASTORNICKY?
All of these numbers are reflected in falls in team ratio stats. Using fangraphs and their MLB-standing stats, the following table should help reinforce where the Braves have sucked.
Recently, Mark Bowman also looked at ratio stats and played them up, but a lot of the numbers found with fangraphs' plate discipline section is not that different compared to last year's stats and where the Braves finished last season. For instance, Bowman writes that "Atlanta has swung as frequently (49.4 percent of the pitches they've seen) as any NL club and made contact with its swings less frequently (75.1 percent) than any other big league club." I didn't include Contact% in my table, but last season, a year where the Braves offense was again very productive, they made contact on just 76% of their swings, second worst in the bigs. So, that probably isn't a big reason for their 2014 struggles.
However, I believe that Zone% number is the most important. Productive batters are given less pitches in the zone so it's difficult to show whether this is a chicken or the egg proposition, but because the Braves aren't making good contact, they get more and more pitches to swing at in the zone. Pitches Heyward should bash. Pitches Johnson should drive to the gap. Pitches Simmons, by the law of averages, should deposit in the left-field bleachers.
Instead, they become flyouts. Groundouts. And yes, strikeouts.
What's the solution? The Braves have the players and they need to simply produce. If that's through some altered stances or philosophy, that's fine, but to get back to what the Braves do well (hit homers and walk), they need to force pitchers to have to treat them with respect and throw pitches outside of the zone instead of hammering the zone, knowing they will get outs. They need runners on base to force the pitcher to treat hitters carefully.
Sadly, the 8th-place hitting pitcher probably isn't the answer. But hell, it's something, I guess.
As an aside, I am done for the semester with my school-work so I'm hoping to blog more over the summer. Actually have a few ideas on what to use. Plus, this weekend, I plan to start the Random Prospect of the Week series back up. Thanks for reading!
So, they aren't scoring.
But why? Well, there is only a couple of changes from last year's roster. Yeah, Evan Gattis replaced Brian McCann, but the rest of the starting lineup is the same. Ryan Doumit and Tyler Pastornicky are on the bench and Reed Johnson and Juan Francisco/Elliot Johnson are gone, but idealy, they would seem like an improvement.
Just what in the hell is the problem? Individually, very few players are hitting better than they did last season. As bad as Dan Uggla was last season, he has reached new levels of suck. So much suck that he's sitting on the bench, getting splinters in his ass. Andrelton Simmons still ain't really hitting that well, but at least he's not leading off. Chris Johnson has started to hit, but his production is down. And Jason Heyward leads the team in walks and that's about the only positive you can throw at him when he has a bat in his hands. B.J. Upton is actually better. Somewhat. To a small extent.
On the bench, Ramiro Pena's surprising 2013 has disappeared. Gerald Laird did his best David Ross last season and has reverted back to Gerald Laird. Jordan Schafer is awful. Holy hell, the Braves are starting Pastornicky? PASTORNICKY?
All of these numbers are reflected in falls in team ratio stats. Using fangraphs and their MLB-standing stats, the following table should help reinforce where the Braves have sucked.
| Stat | 2013 | Rank | 2014 | Rank |
| BB% | 8.8% | 6th | 7.2% | 22nd |
| K% | 22.6% | 3rd | 24.3% | 1st |
| ISO | .153 | 7th | .142 | 14th |
| BABIP | .300 | 12th | .284 | 26th |
| Swing% | 47.4% | 9th | 49.2% | 4th |
| Zone% | 44.4% | 21st | 48.6% | 4th |
Recently, Mark Bowman also looked at ratio stats and played them up, but a lot of the numbers found with fangraphs' plate discipline section is not that different compared to last year's stats and where the Braves finished last season. For instance, Bowman writes that "Atlanta has swung as frequently (49.4 percent of the pitches they've seen) as any NL club and made contact with its swings less frequently (75.1 percent) than any other big league club." I didn't include Contact% in my table, but last season, a year where the Braves offense was again very productive, they made contact on just 76% of their swings, second worst in the bigs. So, that probably isn't a big reason for their 2014 struggles.
However, I believe that Zone% number is the most important. Productive batters are given less pitches in the zone so it's difficult to show whether this is a chicken or the egg proposition, but because the Braves aren't making good contact, they get more and more pitches to swing at in the zone. Pitches Heyward should bash. Pitches Johnson should drive to the gap. Pitches Simmons, by the law of averages, should deposit in the left-field bleachers.
Instead, they become flyouts. Groundouts. And yes, strikeouts.
What's the solution? The Braves have the players and they need to simply produce. If that's through some altered stances or philosophy, that's fine, but to get back to what the Braves do well (hit homers and walk), they need to force pitchers to have to treat them with respect and throw pitches outside of the zone instead of hammering the zone, knowing they will get outs. They need runners on base to force the pitcher to treat hitters carefully.
Sadly, the 8th-place hitting pitcher probably isn't the answer. But hell, it's something, I guess.
As an aside, I am done for the semester with my school-work so I'm hoping to blog more over the summer. Actually have a few ideas on what to use. Plus, this weekend, I plan to start the Random Prospect of the Week series back up. Thanks for reading!
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
See ya, Paul!
There comes a time in the life of every member of the Atlanta Braves baseball club where he must say good bye. Sometimes, it's a forceful good bye. We all remember the public shunning of John Rocker by sending him to Cleveland. Other times, a member of Atlanta leaves on his own, often with money bags provided by other poaching ballclubs. Rarely, there are tears as that member is headed off into retirement, which we all know means death.
And then, there is Paul Janish. Sometimes, you forget that the player was even a member of the team last season. Janish signed a minor league contract with the Colorado Rockies yesterday because in the mile-high environment of Denver, maybe he will be able to hit his first major league homerun since 2010. Probably not, but there is a chance.
Janish joined the Braves in a 2012 trade that sent Todd Redmond to the Reds. Janish had progressed quickly in the Reds system, reaching the majors during the 2008 season, but he was never a capable hitter in the minors or in the majors. In 2011, playing in a career high 114 games, he posted a -0.6 fWAR. That's difficult to do when you post a 7.9 UZR. Not so difficult when you OPS .521 in over 350 PA, though. Janish was demoted to AAA to open 2012 and that's where the Braves plucked him from after Andrelton Simmons suffered an injury. The Braves had already given the Tyler Pastornicky experiment two months and the last thing they wanted to see was a regular occurrence of Rev at short.
Janish hit...well...like Janish during his run with Braves, slashing .186/.269/.234 in just over 175 plate appearances after the trade from the Reds in 2012. Showing himself to be no fluke, Janish followed up his 2012 campaign with an even worse 2013 season (.171/.222/.220). Again, injuries got Janish to the bigs as Ramiro Pena's bum shoulder brought Janish to the majors as a caddy for Chris Johnson's woeful defense. Bad sign when you get to the bigs simply because of injuries and not your talent.
While a good defender, his defense is not Simmons' level. Combine that with a bat that might as well be made out of that nerf material and you have a player you are not likely to miss. However, it should be said that since this guy needs injuries to get to the majors, he made a good decision on employment. I mean, it's not like Troy Tulowitzki has been the epitome of health.
And then, there is Paul Janish. Sometimes, you forget that the player was even a member of the team last season. Janish signed a minor league contract with the Colorado Rockies yesterday because in the mile-high environment of Denver, maybe he will be able to hit his first major league homerun since 2010. Probably not, but there is a chance.
Janish joined the Braves in a 2012 trade that sent Todd Redmond to the Reds. Janish had progressed quickly in the Reds system, reaching the majors during the 2008 season, but he was never a capable hitter in the minors or in the majors. In 2011, playing in a career high 114 games, he posted a -0.6 fWAR. That's difficult to do when you post a 7.9 UZR. Not so difficult when you OPS .521 in over 350 PA, though. Janish was demoted to AAA to open 2012 and that's where the Braves plucked him from after Andrelton Simmons suffered an injury. The Braves had already given the Tyler Pastornicky experiment two months and the last thing they wanted to see was a regular occurrence of Rev at short.
Janish hit...well...like Janish during his run with Braves, slashing .186/.269/.234 in just over 175 plate appearances after the trade from the Reds in 2012. Showing himself to be no fluke, Janish followed up his 2012 campaign with an even worse 2013 season (.171/.222/.220). Again, injuries got Janish to the bigs as Ramiro Pena's bum shoulder brought Janish to the majors as a caddy for Chris Johnson's woeful defense. Bad sign when you get to the bigs simply because of injuries and not your talent.
While a good defender, his defense is not Simmons' level. Combine that with a bat that might as well be made out of that nerf material and you have a player you are not likely to miss. However, it should be said that since this guy needs injuries to get to the majors, he made a good decision on employment. I mean, it's not like Troy Tulowitzki has been the epitome of health.
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
A Look Back: 2010 Draft
Time to once again visit a recent draft. While the 2011 and 2012 drafts have yielded just one major leaguer, the 2010 draft has given the Braves a tremendous influx of talent, including 22% of their expected starting lineup next season. Much like 2011, the Braves focused on college players, though not nearly to the same extent, even going so far as selecting a high school student with their first pick. The Braves did not have a first round selection after losing it for signing Billy Wagner. However, the Orioles' signing of Mike Gonzalez did give them a supplemental pick (35th overall) and an extra second round pick (53rd overall).
Again, I will go over the top ten with some extra picks highlighted if they interest me. One pick outside the top ten will definitely hold a good deal of interest.
1. Matt Lipka, SS, McKinney High School (McKinney, TX)
Lipka was considered a great athlete with raw talent when the Braves made him their first pick of the draft. Many were already unsure if Lipka would stay at shortstop, but his potential pop and speed made him a borderline first-round talent. Lipka was a quick sign and played 52 games in 2010, almost all in the Gulf Coast League. Production was very solid (.288/.344/.723, 21-of-24 SB) and Lipka quickly rose to full-season ball at 19. In three years since, the last two at Lynchburg, Lipka's numbers have languished. He was limited to just 51 games in 2012 due to injury, but he strikes out too often (19%) and doesn't walk enough (5%) to be much of a prospect. He turns 22 in April and shifted to CF before 2012's season. He still might become a good prospect, but appears limited to a ceiling as a nice utility player.
2. Todd Cunningham, OF, Jacksonville State University
Cunningham as a high-floor guy who scouts had a good idea about. At his best, he would play decent enough defense and get on base. At his worst, he would be a good enough fourth outfielder. So far, that idea has remained. After posting a .676 OPS at Rome after signing, Cunningham posted a .700 OPS while limited by injuries with the Hillcats in 2011. Cunningham reached prospect status the following eason, slashing .309/.364/.403 with 24 steals while with Mississippi in 2012. The season garnered him a spot on the 40-man roster to avoid exposing him to the Rule 5 draft. His numbers fail considerable (outside of his OBP) during 2013 while playing 116 games in Gwinnett and going 2-for-8 in eight games with the big league club. His defense seems good enough to play left field and he could easily be Reed Johnson-lite. He will have a chance to impress for a spot on the bench next season.
2. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Western Oklahoma State Junior College
The Braves weren't positive what they had with Simmons. Most teams preferred him at pitcher where his 98 mph fastball could thrive and possibly make him a stellar reliever. However, Simmons wanted to be an everyday player and the Braves were willing to give that a shot. Guess they figured they had a fallback option and Simmons could use that arm at shortstop. After 62 games with Danville, Simmons entered prospect lists after a .311/.351/.408 season with the Hillcats in 2011. MLB.com ranked him 62nd entering the 2012 season while Baseball America had him 92nd. His numbers again improved, posting a .293/.372/.420 slash with Mississippi. At the beginning of June, with Tyler Pastornicky struggling badly, Atlanta called up Simmons to take over. Though he missed time with an injury, Simmons posted a .751 while playing other-worldly defense. The following season, the other-worldly defense became defense unique to this universe, but his offensive production split. Though he powered his way to 17 homers, he hit just .248 while on-basing .296. For too long, he was the team's leadoff hitter. Nevertheless, he took home the Platinum Award as the game's best defender and finished 14th in the MVP ballot. With a better offensive year, Simmons will be recognized as one of the premier players at his position.
3. Joe Leonard, 3B, University of Pittsburgh
I did a Prospect of the Day look at Leonard in 2012. With his profile (6'5"), there was expectations that Leonard's power would come and he would develop into a good option at third base, especially in a post-Chipper Jones world. In college, Leonard was a guy who hit for a high average and played great defense. It took some time before he would sign, but once he did, he appeared in 39 games, all but ten with Rome, and OPS'd .749. So far, so good. Since, he has posted OPS's of .689, .733, and .568 while playing year at all three spots along the way. Things were so bad in Gwinnett last season that Leonard failed to homer. By sheer accident, you assume he would homer. He made some offensive improvements with Mississippi during 2012, but after an ugly season with Gwinnett last season, Leonard has definitely fell out of favor. He remains a great defender at third, but without considerable offensive improvement, Leonard won't be getting to the bigs any time soon.
4. David Filak, RHP, State University of New York at Oneonta
Filak had some hope and he posted 22 solid innings with Danville after signing. Control was bad (10 walks), but Filak pitched well enough to head to Rome in 2011. The result was ugly 7.54 ERA in 45.1 ING with 33 walks to 32 strikeouts. He wasn't much better after being demoted back to Danville. After 101.2 innings with Rome in 2012, the Braves saw enough and cut Filak. He spent last season with New Jersey of the Canadian-American Association, though he only got four ugly starts. Maybe pitching isn't in his future.
5. Philip Gosselin, 2B, University of Virginia
The Goose was a lot like Cunningham. You had a pretty good idea of what the floor was and had very limited expectations on a ceiling. And as such, we have seen what you expect to see. He was the only 2010 draftee to play with Myrtle Beach after playing six games there in 2010. He spent 2011 with the Hillcats after the Braves relocated their A+ squad. It was probably his best full season as he hit .264/.324/.392. Since then, he has played 187 games with Mississippi (.627 OPS) and 58 with the Gwinnett Braves last year, where he slashed .266/.308/.324. He also had a week in the majors last year where he went 2-for-6. Organizational guy, but no expectations that he will be a long-term major league talent.
6. Joey Terdoslavich, 3B, California State University-Long Beach
Joey T had plenty of offense, but there were concerns if he had professional-worthy defense at third base. Turns out, he didn't and quickly was moved across the infield. After looking solid in 2010 offensively, The Big Terd exploded all over Carolina League pitching in 2011 while slashing .286/.341/.526 with 52 2B's and 20 HR. With Chipper's pending retirement and Leonard not exactly lighting up minor league pitching, the Braves decided to revisit third base while jumping Terdo all the way to Gwinnett to open 2012. The results were ugly and not just defensively. He OPS'd .515 over 53 games with 22 errors. Atlanta realized their mistake and sent J-Terd to AA, where he posted a .852 OPS to close the year. In 2013, he moved to the outfield and slashed .318/.359/.567 until July 3rd when the Braves came calling. His switch-hitting bat and versatility kept him in Atlanta, where he was a regular bench option for Fredi Gonzalez. He didn't hit particularly well, but got on base nicely while starting games at first and in left and right. Terdy might never be a starter for a major league team, but he can have a nice career coming off the bench. He's essentially Eric Hinske with less power.
7. Matt Suschak, RHP, University of Toledo
After 34 games over a year-and-a-half, the Braves saw all the needed from Suschak. He displayed next to no country and when he did get the ball into the strikezone, it often left the park far too quickly. He didn't play in 2012, but played for a pair of Frontier League teams last year, though he logged just three games of work.
8. Kurt Fleming, OF, St. Christopher's School (Richmond, VA)
Fleming was headed to Army to play baseball and football there, but chose to sign with the Braves instead and posted a .701 OPS at rookie ball after signing. He spent 2011 with Danville, but on-based just .290. Still, he opened 2012 with Rome, but sucked there and was back in Danville. He didn't hit so well there either and was released after the season. Not sure what he did last year, but recently, he enrolled with Clemson and will walk-on for the football team next fall.
9. David Rohm, OF, Fresno City College
The Braves went back college for the selection of Rohm, who split time with both rookie teams after signing, posting a .784 OPS. He followed that up with a good year at Rome where Rohm slashed .289/.330/.432 with 47 EBH. A lot of the wind that entered his sails quickly left after struggling through injuries and rotten play with Lynchburg in 2012. After repeating the level with a season that mimics his year at Rome in 2011, Rohm will be headed up the ladder. So far, he has displayed some gap power, but has hit just 12 homeruns professionally. He doesn't walk, nor steal bases. As a corner outfielder, his offense doesn't project well.
10. Matthew Lewis, RHP, University of California-Davis
He walked 26 in 21.2 ING coming out of the Danville pen in 2010. He pitched three times the following season, but was quickly discarded.
Some other highlights from the rest of the draft...
-12th rounder Barrett Kleinknecht isn't going to hit for much, but he makes for a nice utility option. The last two years while playing for Mississippi, he has logged time each year at all four infield positions, catcher, and pitcher. In fact, he was utilized three times out of the pen just last year, giving up one hit (a home) while walking two and striking out four.
-Third Baseman Brandon Drury, selected in the 13th round, was traded last offseason in the Justin Upton deal. He looked really good last year at South Bend, slashing .302/.362/.500 with 51 2B and 15 HR. I miss him already.
-William Beckwith was a Random Prospect of the Day last year. The 21st rounder seems to have cut back on December 22 after a season cut short by a DUI. Also a former Random Prospect was Ian Marshall. He spent last year with Southern Maryland in the independent Atlantic League. Here is his RPOD profile.
-30th round selection Kenny Fleming is 8th rounder Kurt's older brother. He lasted a season less than his brother did.
-Finally, there is 23rd round selection Evan Gattis from the University of Texas-Permian Basin. The story is fairly old at this point, but because of addiction issues, Gattis's career took a significant detour before he finally was drafted and signed with the Braves. After slugging an un-Gattis-like .387 in 60 games with Danville in 2010, Gattis destroyed SALLY pitching in 2011 to the tune of .322/.386/.601 and 22 HR, though he was limited by injuries. The following year, again, he dealt with a few injuries, but when he played, he conquered both Lynchburg and Mississippi, OPSing .995 for the year.
After a run in winter league baseball that saddled him with the El Oso Blanco nickname, Gattis headed to spring training with a lot of buzz and was truly excellent early in the season with notable homeruns off Roy Halladay and Stephen Strasburg. The rest of the year was not as good and he was used way too much in LF in order to get his bat into the lineup. That won't be a concern this year after Brian McCann signed with the Yankees. Gattis was the 24th player selected by the Braves in June of 2010. Only nine of the 23 picked before him are still in the organization. The unlikely success of Gattis really does test logic.
Again, I will go over the top ten with some extra picks highlighted if they interest me. One pick outside the top ten will definitely hold a good deal of interest.
1. Matt Lipka, SS, McKinney High School (McKinney, TX)
Lipka was considered a great athlete with raw talent when the Braves made him their first pick of the draft. Many were already unsure if Lipka would stay at shortstop, but his potential pop and speed made him a borderline first-round talent. Lipka was a quick sign and played 52 games in 2010, almost all in the Gulf Coast League. Production was very solid (.288/.344/.723, 21-of-24 SB) and Lipka quickly rose to full-season ball at 19. In three years since, the last two at Lynchburg, Lipka's numbers have languished. He was limited to just 51 games in 2012 due to injury, but he strikes out too often (19%) and doesn't walk enough (5%) to be much of a prospect. He turns 22 in April and shifted to CF before 2012's season. He still might become a good prospect, but appears limited to a ceiling as a nice utility player.
2. Todd Cunningham, OF, Jacksonville State University
Cunningham as a high-floor guy who scouts had a good idea about. At his best, he would play decent enough defense and get on base. At his worst, he would be a good enough fourth outfielder. So far, that idea has remained. After posting a .676 OPS at Rome after signing, Cunningham posted a .700 OPS while limited by injuries with the Hillcats in 2011. Cunningham reached prospect status the following eason, slashing .309/.364/.403 with 24 steals while with Mississippi in 2012. The season garnered him a spot on the 40-man roster to avoid exposing him to the Rule 5 draft. His numbers fail considerable (outside of his OBP) during 2013 while playing 116 games in Gwinnett and going 2-for-8 in eight games with the big league club. His defense seems good enough to play left field and he could easily be Reed Johnson-lite. He will have a chance to impress for a spot on the bench next season.
2. Andrelton Simmons, SS, Western Oklahoma State Junior College
The Braves weren't positive what they had with Simmons. Most teams preferred him at pitcher where his 98 mph fastball could thrive and possibly make him a stellar reliever. However, Simmons wanted to be an everyday player and the Braves were willing to give that a shot. Guess they figured they had a fallback option and Simmons could use that arm at shortstop. After 62 games with Danville, Simmons entered prospect lists after a .311/.351/.408 season with the Hillcats in 2011. MLB.com ranked him 62nd entering the 2012 season while Baseball America had him 92nd. His numbers again improved, posting a .293/.372/.420 slash with Mississippi. At the beginning of June, with Tyler Pastornicky struggling badly, Atlanta called up Simmons to take over. Though he missed time with an injury, Simmons posted a .751 while playing other-worldly defense. The following season, the other-worldly defense became defense unique to this universe, but his offensive production split. Though he powered his way to 17 homers, he hit just .248 while on-basing .296. For too long, he was the team's leadoff hitter. Nevertheless, he took home the Platinum Award as the game's best defender and finished 14th in the MVP ballot. With a better offensive year, Simmons will be recognized as one of the premier players at his position.
3. Joe Leonard, 3B, University of Pittsburgh
I did a Prospect of the Day look at Leonard in 2012. With his profile (6'5"), there was expectations that Leonard's power would come and he would develop into a good option at third base, especially in a post-Chipper Jones world. In college, Leonard was a guy who hit for a high average and played great defense. It took some time before he would sign, but once he did, he appeared in 39 games, all but ten with Rome, and OPS'd .749. So far, so good. Since, he has posted OPS's of .689, .733, and .568 while playing year at all three spots along the way. Things were so bad in Gwinnett last season that Leonard failed to homer. By sheer accident, you assume he would homer. He made some offensive improvements with Mississippi during 2012, but after an ugly season with Gwinnett last season, Leonard has definitely fell out of favor. He remains a great defender at third, but without considerable offensive improvement, Leonard won't be getting to the bigs any time soon.
4. David Filak, RHP, State University of New York at Oneonta
Filak had some hope and he posted 22 solid innings with Danville after signing. Control was bad (10 walks), but Filak pitched well enough to head to Rome in 2011. The result was ugly 7.54 ERA in 45.1 ING with 33 walks to 32 strikeouts. He wasn't much better after being demoted back to Danville. After 101.2 innings with Rome in 2012, the Braves saw enough and cut Filak. He spent last season with New Jersey of the Canadian-American Association, though he only got four ugly starts. Maybe pitching isn't in his future.
5. Philip Gosselin, 2B, University of Virginia
The Goose was a lot like Cunningham. You had a pretty good idea of what the floor was and had very limited expectations on a ceiling. And as such, we have seen what you expect to see. He was the only 2010 draftee to play with Myrtle Beach after playing six games there in 2010. He spent 2011 with the Hillcats after the Braves relocated their A+ squad. It was probably his best full season as he hit .264/.324/.392. Since then, he has played 187 games with Mississippi (.627 OPS) and 58 with the Gwinnett Braves last year, where he slashed .266/.308/.324. He also had a week in the majors last year where he went 2-for-6. Organizational guy, but no expectations that he will be a long-term major league talent.
6. Joey Terdoslavich, 3B, California State University-Long Beach
Joey T had plenty of offense, but there were concerns if he had professional-worthy defense at third base. Turns out, he didn't and quickly was moved across the infield. After looking solid in 2010 offensively, The Big Terd exploded all over Carolina League pitching in 2011 while slashing .286/.341/.526 with 52 2B's and 20 HR. With Chipper's pending retirement and Leonard not exactly lighting up minor league pitching, the Braves decided to revisit third base while jumping Terdo all the way to Gwinnett to open 2012. The results were ugly and not just defensively. He OPS'd .515 over 53 games with 22 errors. Atlanta realized their mistake and sent J-Terd to AA, where he posted a .852 OPS to close the year. In 2013, he moved to the outfield and slashed .318/.359/.567 until July 3rd when the Braves came calling. His switch-hitting bat and versatility kept him in Atlanta, where he was a regular bench option for Fredi Gonzalez. He didn't hit particularly well, but got on base nicely while starting games at first and in left and right. Terdy might never be a starter for a major league team, but he can have a nice career coming off the bench. He's essentially Eric Hinske with less power.
7. Matt Suschak, RHP, University of Toledo
After 34 games over a year-and-a-half, the Braves saw all the needed from Suschak. He displayed next to no country and when he did get the ball into the strikezone, it often left the park far too quickly. He didn't play in 2012, but played for a pair of Frontier League teams last year, though he logged just three games of work.
8. Kurt Fleming, OF, St. Christopher's School (Richmond, VA)
Fleming was headed to Army to play baseball and football there, but chose to sign with the Braves instead and posted a .701 OPS at rookie ball after signing. He spent 2011 with Danville, but on-based just .290. Still, he opened 2012 with Rome, but sucked there and was back in Danville. He didn't hit so well there either and was released after the season. Not sure what he did last year, but recently, he enrolled with Clemson and will walk-on for the football team next fall.
9. David Rohm, OF, Fresno City College
The Braves went back college for the selection of Rohm, who split time with both rookie teams after signing, posting a .784 OPS. He followed that up with a good year at Rome where Rohm slashed .289/.330/.432 with 47 EBH. A lot of the wind that entered his sails quickly left after struggling through injuries and rotten play with Lynchburg in 2012. After repeating the level with a season that mimics his year at Rome in 2011, Rohm will be headed up the ladder. So far, he has displayed some gap power, but has hit just 12 homeruns professionally. He doesn't walk, nor steal bases. As a corner outfielder, his offense doesn't project well.
10. Matthew Lewis, RHP, University of California-Davis
He walked 26 in 21.2 ING coming out of the Danville pen in 2010. He pitched three times the following season, but was quickly discarded.
Some other highlights from the rest of the draft...
-12th rounder Barrett Kleinknecht isn't going to hit for much, but he makes for a nice utility option. The last two years while playing for Mississippi, he has logged time each year at all four infield positions, catcher, and pitcher. In fact, he was utilized three times out of the pen just last year, giving up one hit (a home) while walking two and striking out four.
-Third Baseman Brandon Drury, selected in the 13th round, was traded last offseason in the Justin Upton deal. He looked really good last year at South Bend, slashing .302/.362/.500 with 51 2B and 15 HR. I miss him already.
-William Beckwith was a Random Prospect of the Day last year. The 21st rounder seems to have cut back on December 22 after a season cut short by a DUI. Also a former Random Prospect was Ian Marshall. He spent last year with Southern Maryland in the independent Atlantic League. Here is his RPOD profile.
-30th round selection Kenny Fleming is 8th rounder Kurt's older brother. He lasted a season less than his brother did.
-Finally, there is 23rd round selection Evan Gattis from the University of Texas-Permian Basin. The story is fairly old at this point, but because of addiction issues, Gattis's career took a significant detour before he finally was drafted and signed with the Braves. After slugging an un-Gattis-like .387 in 60 games with Danville in 2010, Gattis destroyed SALLY pitching in 2011 to the tune of .322/.386/.601 and 22 HR, though he was limited by injuries. The following year, again, he dealt with a few injuries, but when he played, he conquered both Lynchburg and Mississippi, OPSing .995 for the year.
After a run in winter league baseball that saddled him with the El Oso Blanco nickname, Gattis headed to spring training with a lot of buzz and was truly excellent early in the season with notable homeruns off Roy Halladay and Stephen Strasburg. The rest of the year was not as good and he was used way too much in LF in order to get his bat into the lineup. That won't be a concern this year after Brian McCann signed with the Yankees. Gattis was the 24th player selected by the Braves in June of 2010. Only nine of the 23 picked before him are still in the organization. The unlikely success of Gattis really does test logic.
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