Walk-Off Talk 1.10: The Search Committee

(Walk-Off Talk is an informal series of responses between members of the Walk-Off Walk family. Today, we talk about who should be the manager in 2018 with Ryan Cothran, Stephen Tolbert, and me - Tommy Poe.)

Okay, guys, I think we're ready to decide the manager of the Atlanta Braves for the 2018 season and, with any luck, the many years to follow. Why John Coppolella trusted us with this responsibility remains unknown, but we cannot let him down. We got our list of in-house candidates that the powers-that-be are pushing and I know you guys are considering other options so let's dive right into this mess.

Candidate #1 - Brian Snitker Survives

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Tommy: Well, I'm sure many people won't like this option. Even his long-time supporters have resigned themselves to accept that the dismissal of Snitker after the 2017 season may be inevitable, but there might be a chance he stays for 2018. Just yesterday, the AJC's Mark Bradley indicated the front office might be leaning that way. Regardless of how that plays out, the case for him returning is very thin. It seemingly boils down to the old stand-by - "the players love him." Freddie Freeman certainly does and if Freeman wants to play shortstop, I'm fairly convinced the Braves will let him. Snitker's obviously a good foot soldier and a player's manager, but when it comes to management skills, I'm just not seeing it. Does he put players in the best position to succeed? Does he think several steps ahead to consider all possibilities while also making a quick decision? Does he use all of the information available to him to help influence his decision or fall victim to old habits? Does he help the players progress as professionals? When it comes to each of these questions, the best grade I could give Snitker is average, though below-average is more likely in most cases.

To be fair - something I rarely care to be - Snitker was given a roster in which everything had to go right for this season to have turned out much better than we have witnessed. Bartolo Colon transformed from the rotund ageless wonder to the rotund aged failure. Jim Johnson taught us the value of FIP. Freeman got hurt. Dansby Swanson struggled massively. Matt Kemp was Matt Kemp. Emilio Bonifacio, Eric O'Flaherty, Chase d'Arnaud (for about five seconds) had roster spots. The deck was stacked against Snitker. Still, throughout the season, Snitker made matters worse. He called on the wrong guy to pitch out of the bullpen or pinch-hit many times in 2017. He seemed totally incapable of predicting what other managers would do. He played veterans over rookies even though the team needed to find out what they had in the younger guys. For all that Snitker couldn't control, the things that he theoretically could too often showed Snitker to be a man under-qualified for the job at hand. While Freeman may love Snitker, this is a results-driven business and even if you accept the win-loss record for a roster this inept can't completely fall on the manager, it's hard to be excited about the decisions he did make.

Stephen: Yeah, of all the scenarios, this one seems like the least likely. I’ve argued both in a post and on Twitter, that the Brian Snitker problem pales in comparison to the lack of talent problem facing Atlanta. This argument I think has led some people to think I’m in favor of keeping him. Let it be clear - Brian Snitker is not a major league caliber manager. His contract should not be renewed. Even if I’m right and managers only contribute +/- 3 Wins, Snitker is still at the bottom of that range. I’ll take +3 Wins over -3 Wins any day and Atlanta needs to get a real manager that can be a daily asset instead of a constant liability. Tactically and strategically, Snit is playing checkers and while he’s been an important part of the Braves past, the future requires a new voice. A better voice.

The committee appreciates everything you’ve done for the organization over the years Brian, here’s a nice, cushy front office position. As for the rest, we’ll take it from here.

Ryan: The problem that I have had this season with his roster is his bizarre usage of abysmal players over competent players. I discussed a stat on Twitter the other day that Emilio Bonifacio and Danny Santana received nearly 200 combined plate appearances with 45 coming in high-leverage situations. Add Jace Peterson’s 190 to that stack, and then compare it to the Adamses (Matt and Lane) and it’s a downright abomination. Yes, there is an excuse that can bail out Snitker and it’s the fact that this was the roster given to him and he had no say so in it...but do we believe that? I don’t. It was alluded to by Coppy, after Bonifacio’s DFA, that he was Snitker’s choice to fill out the roster. That sounds about right. Knowing Coppy’s mindset, it just doesn’t make sense that he’d make that same mistake again if it was his call solely.

There are others that I could point to but now we’re just swatting the flies off of Snitker’s career. He doesn’t keep his players healthy, is a poor tactician, and that’s enough for me to look to others.

--------------------------------------

Candidate #2 - Ron Washington 

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Stephen: As it’s become more and more apparent Brian Snitker won’t be retained, the most popular name mentioned as a replacement has been Ron Washington. And there's some logic behind it. Washington not only has big-league experience as a manager but a significant amount of success as well. He was the man at the helm of the Texas Rangers from 2007-2014, taking them from perineal basement dweller to back to back World Series in 2010 and 2011. Overall, he had a .521 winning percentage in Texas in his 8 years and established himself as one of the better managers in the league. Add that to the fact that he’s already on the staff, already has a relationship with the players, and it’s easy to understand why he’s so high on the list.

Washington isn’t the perfect candidate though. For one, he’s had some significant personal issues. During the 2009 season, Washington tested positive for cocaine and later confirmed he had indeed been using. After the 2014 season, Washington somewhat surprisingly resigned as manager of the Rangers citing personal reasons. A week later it was widely reported the resignation was due to a sexual assault allegation against a reporter and a week after that Washington confirmed he had been having an extramarital affair. We’ll probably never know the full story but these lapses in judgment are real concerns when deciding whether to make a guy the face of your organization.

Another issue is Washington is considered an old-school manager. And while that has been shown it can work given the right talent, it would be nice for the organization to consider a more analytical guy. Less bunts, more creative bullpen use, a progressive approach to platoons or bench usage, etc. That’s not Washington so Atlanta needs to be clear on what type of guy they want before going back to the old-school well.

Ryan: In looking at Washington’s years at Texas, the one thing that I noticed was that he rode players HARD!  Numerous guys year after year were getting upper-600 and 700 plate appearances. In today’s game, I just don’t like this mindset. I want to see the usage of super-utility outfielders and infielders rotating around the field to provide rest. While I’m not going to speak in depth about the personal issues Washington has faced, I’m not going to deny that it worries me, as managing a baseball team isn’t exactly a low-stress job. He’s not my guy, but it lies more with the first reason rather than the latter.

Tommy: What you said in regards to his old school approach sticks with me, Stephen. Ron Washington once said about bunting that, "you can take that analytics and shove it." He then added, "I do it (bunting) when I feel it’s necessary, not when the analytics feel it’s necessary, not when you guys feel it’s necessary, and not when somebody else feels it’s necessary. It’s when Ron Washington feels it’s necessary. Bottom line." Apparently, Washington 3:16 means I just bunted on you in the third inning because I thought it was necessary. I have to say it's that kind of thinking that scares me about Washington. He had success, there is no doubting that, but if you, as I do, subscribe to the Three Tiers of Managing Jim Leyland laid out that Joe Posnanski refined, the most important skill for a manager is the actual act of managing a game. And when it comes to that, Washington concerns me. I don't want a manager who shuts himself off to the idea that there is new thinking - supported by analytics - that bunting and being hyper-aggressive on the bases depresses run production. Now, maybe that's changed since his 2014 spring training interview I referenced. Maybe. But I have my doubts.

---------------------------------------------

Candidate #3 - Bo Porter

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Ryan: If I’m going internal, Bo knows he’s my guy. I was very hesitant and vocal about Bo before as I saw him make some excruciatingly painful managerial decisions, but knowing that Bo has managerial experience and has gotten his feet wet tells me that he could be the only forward-thinking baseball guy in the internal candidate discussion, as Eddie, Terry, Snitker, and Washington are likely Bobby Cox guys (old school) and will coach similarly to the legend. Bo’s been quoted that he looks much deeper than the superficial statistics and keeps his own chart of advanced metrics.  This quote was found by a great twitter follow in @JawnCoppolella and it provides the majority of my opinion.

"Batting average to me is the most overrated statistic in baseball," said Porter, whose Astros rallied to defeat the Rockies 3-2 in 12 innings Monday.

Like most players, Porter barely paid attention to advanced stats when he roamed the field. But since becoming a coach, the youngest manager in MLB has started to delve deeper into the inside-baseball side of the game.

"When you're trying to make a decision and place value to how important is this guy versus the importance of this guy, you have to go beyond the surface," Porter said. "For me, I can give you my eye-test opinion. But when you're trying to really get to the (bottom) of it, there's information that will let you know."

Porter keeps a chart of hard-hit balls and the numbers factor into lineup decisions. He pays attention to hitters who clean up only against poor pitching. He understands the value of batting average on balls in play.

"I have my own theory when I'm talking about (signing) a free agent," Porter said. "The first thing I'm going to do, I'm going to eliminate all his numbers against my team. ... People make this mistake a lot. They go, 'Well, this guy kills us.' And then you get him on your team. Well, you know what? He did 40 percent of his damage against your pitchers."

Asked if he has a Sabermetrics card, Porter said yes. He appeared to be joking. But he sounded like a proud member.

"It's easy to look at batting average, wins-losses, ERA," Porter said. "I mean, that information is available to everybody."

Tommy: Man, I hope that’s how he thinks now. I’ve been all over the map with Porter and one of the biggest reason comes down to analytics. Reports out of Houston at the time he was relieved suggested that Porter didn’t embrace analytics, but he disputes that and the amount of shifting done in Houston while he was the manager supports his contention. He’s described as fiery and very protective of his players. What happened in Houston may have simply been a case of a relationship between manager and general manager that simply couldn’t work. Considering he’s worked under John Coppolella this year, it would seem that Porter should have a good relationship with this general manager and that could help him move forward.

Stephen: If, as the committee, we decided to go internal for this decision, then Porter has my vote. Porter’s positive views of analytics as well as his history and experience being a player's manager are enough for me to feel comfortable with him being the guy. Porter has spent the last year working in the organization so a relationship with the players and the front office is already present. That last part is especially important given the reported rocky relationship the current manager has with the higher-ups. To be clear, I think an outside hire is still preferable but I understand the desire for stability and familiarity in this decision so if this is how we go, I can live with it.

-------------------------------

Candidate #4 - Eddie Perez

By Alex Brady (Hatmatbbat10) (Own work) [CC BY 3.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Tommy: As we continue to cycle through the in-house options, there’s Eddie Perez. It’s hard to get overly excited about Perez. He’s just kind of there. That said, he does have a legitimate argument to be included in this discussion. He's led a team to a Venezuelan Winter League title and brought the squad all the way to the Caribbean Series finals, where they lost to Mexico. On that team was Adonis Garcia, but we won't hold that against Perez. The former personal catcher has been part of the Braves' coaching staff since 2007 and is a Bobby Cox disciple. Last winter, the Rockies flirted with Perez before choosing Bud Black. It was also reported that the Diamondbacks had interest in him as well. Last winter also had the strange situation where Perez was reportedly going to take over as the manager of Team Venezuela in the World Baseball Classic only to have players already committed to the team threaten to bolt over the possible dismissal of Omar Vizquel, the current manager. That's probably not something about how the players felt about Perez, but about loyalty to Vizquel. Still a weird event.

Notice I didn't mention anything about his managerial abilities when it comes to strategy because it's so hard to get a read on that. One problem we have seen from Bobby Cox disciples is that they try to manage just like Cox. It's worth mentioning that Cox is in the Hall of Fame so there are worse people to try to manage like, but can you really be a successful manager when you keep looking down at your "WWBD?" bracelet? All that said, Perez does have some experience helming a club, even if it's only the winter leagues, and has served a few different roles in Atlanta. He knows the players, he knows the system, and he would be a strong Latino presence on a team with a number of young and hungry players from Central America and the Caribbean.

Stephen: The kind way for me to say this is I have zero interest in Eddie Perez being the next manager of the Atlanta Braves. I could make a whole argument as to why but the easiest way to say it is he doesn’t bring anything new or interesting to the table. Just another old school, old guard, Bobby Cox disciple and that well dried up long ago. Hard pass.

Ryan: I really have no opinion on Eddie Perez as it seems to me he’d have been given a shot to manage somewhere by now, which might be telling. There’s no doubt he’s beloved in this organization and rightfully so, and he’s also beloved by his fellow countrymen. I also really like Eddie, but in my opinion, there’s likely the same mentality that’s been present for 3 decades in his approach and I’m ready for different.

--------------------------------

Candidate #5 - Terry Pendleton

By Bryan from Florida (Terry Pendleton) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Stephen: No list of managerial candidates for the Braves is complete without at least mentioning Terry Pendleton. It’s almost impossible to believe but 2018 will be Pendleton’s 17th year as a coach for the Atlanta Braves. After a distinguished playing career, Pendleton spent nine years as the hitting coach under Bobby Cox before being moved to 1st base coach when Fredi Gonzalez was hired. After six years there, Pendleton was transitioned to full-time bench coach when Brian Snitker was hired and has remained there since.

While Pendleton was gaining all this experience in Atlanta, his name was being mentioned for manager openings not only with the Braves but other organizations too. Both Washington and St Louis at separate times had Pendleton on a short list of candidates to fill a vacancy and while it still hasn’t happened for him, his experience coaching in a major league dugout is unimpeachable.

My biggest issue with Pendleton mirrors my issues with Eddie Perez. He’s one of Bobby’s Boys from the good ole days. It’s just retreading the same idea over and over and frankly I have zero interest in traveling down the same road for the 100th time. Time to pave a new way. I think Terry deserves a chance to manage somewhere, sometime. Just not here. Not now.

Ryan: I’ve liked Terry Pendleton for a long time. It has a lot to do with his time with the Braves, but it likely has more to do with family connections and the fact that he nearly kicked the living crap out of crybaby Chris Johnson. Of the guys currently on the bench, Terry would be my choice as I feel he’d do what’s best for the team, not the individual. Still, this is a gut feeling as there’s no real proof that he’d be any different than the last three, and going with the ol’ gut seems cliche for “I really don’t have any proof that this could work, but what the heck!”  That’s not good enough. I want a proven, unique manager that will use the entire roster.

Tommy: Honestly, there's little more than I can say. It is striking that Pendleton used to be a bit of an interesting candidate out there who interviewed for jobs or at least was considered, but over the last several years, that interest has dried up. I wonder if the Chris Johnson situation Ryan spoke of had something to do with that or maybe Pendleton doesn't interview well. Whatever the case, it seems Pendleton is a lifer in the coach role - much like Snitker. If someone really felt he was a manager, he would have already gotten a shot by now.

---------------------------------------------

Candidate #6 - Outside Hire

Ryan: Dave Martinez is my man.  He’s been Joe Maddon’s right-hand guy going on a decade and has been groomed to study deeper to create a winning ballclub. Hopefully like Maddon, Martinez will be a manager that utilizes the entire roster to maintain camaraderie and health for a season. If the Braves go into 2018 not able to shed Nick Markakis or Matt Kemp, someone has to come in and be bold enough to play both in part-time roles so they can be healthy for an entire year. Even if the more likely of the 2 in Markakis gets moved, someone has to have the cojones to sit Kemp regularly and utilize a platoon in left field.  It just feels like it’ll be more of the same if Braves stay internal, and I want a manager that aligns more with Coppy and his crew rather than Schuerholz and company. For me, that guy is Martinez.

Tommy: I have long been on the Dave Martinez train so I'm on board with your suggestion, but here's one of my own - Don Wakamatsu. Similar to Porter, Wakamatsu took over a team in the middle of a rebuild in the Mariners back in 2009, but they finished over .500 with him at the helm. The next year, the wheels came off and the Mariners fired him. One more common theme with Porter - Wakamatsu seemed to be at odds with his former general manager, Jack Zduriencik. To be fair to Wakamatsu, everyone seemed at odds with the former Mariners' general manager except for his high-priced - and often underperforming - player acquisitions. Zduriencik once took the side of Chone Figgins over Wakamatsu after Figgins confronted the manager during a game. In Atlanta, that would be unlikely to happen. Many suggested Wakamatsu lost the clubhouse, but how much of that was a front office that took his legs out?

Wakamatsu currently works under former Braves coach Ned Yost in Kansas City and according to Yost, he runs every decision by Wakamatsu. In his first season under Yost, the Royals nearly won a World Series before taking home a title the next year. He's steeped in analytics from his time with the Mariners and seems to have worked hard to bring Yost into the 21st century as well. This quote from an article on how he was fascinated by the then-brand-new metric system of Statcast is required reading for anyone interested in Wakamatsu.

"To me, BABIP simply raises a red flag, one way or another, and tells you to dive into it more deeply," Wakamatsu said. "Along the same lines, if we look at an opponent who is 0-for-5 on sliders low and away, and he has a BABIP of .000 on those, you might think that's the way to pitch him. But if his average exit velocity is 105 mph on those balls and they were all rockets, you're not going to pitch him that way. 

"The bottom line is we're in an age where there is all kinds of data coming in. The key is being able to use it to win games, not just to sit around and admire it."

Stephen: I would gladly take either of those gentlemen over any internal candidate we’ve discussed but for my suggestion, I’m looking at Joey Cora.

First and foremost, Cora has the resumè for the job. After an 11 year playing career in MLB, Cora has spent the last 15 years either coaching or as an analyst covering baseball. He was on the White Sox staff from 2003-2011, including their World Series year, ranging from 1st base coach to bench coach and was the man deemed to be interim manager anytime Ozzie Guillen was suspended (which was frequently).

Cora also has experience as a manager in the Venezuelan Winter League, as a bench coach for the Miami Marlins, and hired by the Pirates AA team, the Altoona Curves, as their skipper in 2016.

This past year, Cora was promoted to the big league club and served as a base coach. His time with Pittsburgh is especially interesting for me given they’re one of the most analytical teams in baseball. Cora has gone on record saying his time with them has opened his eyes to new ideas.

The other big plus for Cora is Keith Law has publicly and consistently lobbied for him as a serious candidate. Law and Cora worked together on Baseball Tonight and Law has frequently pointed out that, in his opinion, Cora has everything you need to be a successful manager. Law views baseball managing very similar to how I do, no bunts, creative bullpen use, shifts, analytics before tradition etc, and if he supports Cora as a candidate then that carries weight with me. Add that to his time coaching in a very progressive organization the last couple of years and I’m sold.

-----------------------------------

Final Recommendation

It is the recommendation of this committee that the Braves go outside of the organization for their next manager. While we have no true consensus among the three candidates we have provided, we each believe that any of those three are preferable to other in-house options. Martinez has interned under possibly the best manager in baseball and runs the day-to-day for Joe Maddon. Wakamatsu has experience on the hot seat and understands both the traditional mindset as Ned Yost's sidekick and the more analytical side of modern baseball. Cora has done it all and is a database of knowledge that can be useful for the Braves moving forward.

Should Atlanta want to stay in-house, a consensus was reached that Bo Porter should be the manager of the 2018 Braves. He understands the metrics and has embraced their usage in baseball. He has both dugout and front office experience, which would help him to understand the entire spectrum of his responsibilities. Porter is also young, which is useful in providing a building ballclub with a manager they can grow under. 

While the choice is yours, John Coppolella (and possibly John Hart), we believe it's clear that the Braves should move on from Snitker and if they are going to limit their search to who is already on staff, the best option is the guy who has already served you for a year as a special assistant. 

“Is Schuerholz running the club or are Hart and Coppolella running it?”

In an article for The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal points to possible dissension within the Atlanta Braves front office. The article is behind a paywall so I won't quote it word-for-word, but the general perception is that Braves general manager John Coppolella and John Hart, the President of Baseball Operations, could be in a bit of a power struggle with Team Vice Chairman - and former GM and Team President - John Schuerholz. Rosenthal cites unnamed sources in the organization that suggest a number of internal shuffling of Schuerholz hires like Roy Clark and Dave Trembley as a possible sign that Coppy is either trying to squash dissent in the front office or at least see how many changes they can push past Schuerholz, who seemingly retains a good amount of team control.

One unnamed team official offers this particularly worrisome quote:

“It’s a power struggle over who is running the club...is John Schuerholz running the club or are John Hart and John Coppolella running it?”

If true...this is a bad sign for the Braves' organization. Worse - it's nothing new.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

It can be difficult for guys who are used to calling the shots to move to the side so that new decision makers are given the proper autonomy to lead an organization. That seems to run especially true for Schuerholz, who spent nine seasons at the helm of the Royals before 17 years as the Braves general manager. Rather than retire at the age of 67 when he finally moved aside for Frank Wren after the 2007 season, Schuerholz simply moved to a different position as the Team President. For an additional eight years, he held that spot before being promoted (?) to his new position of Team Vice Chairman in March of last season. The new role was created specifically for Schuerholz to keep him in the loop, but also keep him at an arm's reach as Schuerholz entered his late 70's.

It was supposed to be the Hart/Coppy show for the Braves with Hart providing leadership while Coppy handled the day-to-day grind that would likely make the young general manager lose his hair - if he had any to speak of, that is. However, things don't appear to have actually moved in that direction. And again, this is really nothing new for Schuerholz and "The Braves Way" culture, which has a stranglehold on the Braves' decision-making.

When Schuerholz moved up to the Team President role, he handpicked his successor in Frank Wren. Despite a contentious previous run as the Orioles' GM, Wren was lauded for his baseball mind and had spent a number of years providing support to Schuerholz in an assistant role. You couldn't blame the Braves for valuing consistency over a new direction of the franchise which had run off division title after division title from 1991 to 2005. The team still had Chipper Jones, John Smoltz, and Bobby Cox in the fold along with a young nucleus led by Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur. Wren was given the keys, but Schuerholz's watchful eye was never far away.

According to many reports, Wren was difficult to work with and the culture shock soon grew hard on longtime Braves employees. Many, like Roy Clark, left the organization in droves. The most high profile defection would have been Cox himself, who nearly quit the Braves during their first spring training with Wren in charge. It took Schuerholz smoothing things over to keep the future Hall of Fame manager in charge. Major league managers with the kind of pull Cox had have often used the threat of their resignations to enact change. It took Jim Leyland blowing up and threatening to leave to avoid a Barry Bonds-to-the-Braves trade in March of 1992. Cox, known for a short temper, was agitated by what he felt was a micro manager trying to butt his nose where it didn't belong. Of course, considering that Wren joined the Braves eight years before becoming its general manager, why was his style such a surprise for so many people in the organization?

Despite the problems, the two put their differences aside and Wren eventually gave Cox a team that was playoff worthy in Cox's final year and third year with Wren calling the shots. Moving forward, whether Wren made the choice of who replaced Cox is debatable. Considering how much dissension would develop between Wren and Fredi Gonzalez, I tend to believe it wasn't Wren's choice - or at least it wasn't his choice alone. Instead, Schuerholz and Cox intervened with Cox essentially afforded the opportunity to select his successor in Gonzalez. Just 48 hours after Cox's final game as Braves' manager, the team had already named a new manager without even pretending to perform a search. Both the Schuerholz-to-Wren transition and the Cox-to-Gonzalez one were reflective more of a college football team replacing coaches with "coach-in-waiting" picks rather than a professional team seek out the best possible candidates available.

Wren and Gonzalez were not a good mix. The team that Wren wanted to build was one of power and pitching. The team Gonzalez wanted to coach was more traditional - one that put down bunts and put the ball in play. This was never more evident than in 2013 when Wren built the All-or-Nothing Braves, a team capable of big home runs and offense - and a lot of strikeouts. This was simply not the kind of team Gonzalez ever felt comfortable with. The two forces were never meant to co-exist and as the Braves collapsed in 2014, Wren wanted to fire Gonzalez for a manager better suited to take the young-and-talented mix he had built into contention for 2015. It was Cox who stepped in and saved the job of his handpicked successor by appealing to Schuerholz. Instead, it was Wren that fired.

What happened next was another sign that the Braves' organization was not too interested in radical change. Instead, they sought reverting back to "The Braves Way," something they felt Wren was never interested in following. Before announcing John Hart as the future choice to lead the Braves, the organization staged a GM search with Cox, Hart, and Schuerholz as the search team. It was a sham as Schuerholz and Cox simply convinced Hart to take the job full-time while they organized a power-sharing agreement with John Coppolella. The system was simple. Hart would take the hit as the organization blew the team up. Gone would be popular members of the Braves like Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, and Craig Kimbrel. The deals would have Hart's name on it, allowing the Braves to protect Coppy, who was the guy actually putting the trades together for Hart to sign off on. It was a convoluted process from the beginning.

Even before announcing the Hart/Coppy grouping, the Braves began to reshape the front office with Schuerholz calling the shots. He brought Roy Clark back into the mix, named Clark disciple Brian Bridges as scouting director, and Dave Trembley as the Farm Director. And frankly, the process began the year before with hires that were largely made without Wren's input the previous winter (including Hart as a senior adviser and Rick Williams as a special assistant to the GM). Once again, Schuerholz was putting his guys into place, which cuts the legs out from a GM making similar decisions.

All the while, the Braves kept Gonzalez at the helm. Well, of course, they did. They had Cox on the search team after all. It would take a truly rotten start to the 2016 team to finally stain Gonzalez enough to get rid of him. The Braves named long-term organizational filler Brian Snitker as his replacement. At the end of 2016, Snitker seemed like a longshot to return despite a solid end to the 2016 season. The Braves were valuing heavyweights like Ron Washington and Bud Black and Snitker just seemed overmatched. He also seemed like a questionable fit with Coppolella, who took a more innovative and nuanced approached to baseball than a traditionalist like Snitker (or Washington and Black for that matter). Instead of a more exciting younger hire, Snitker was promoted to full-time manager and Washington was brought on for added experience.

But the team only gave Snitker one year. It screamed of compromise, but why? Freddie Freeman had joined the ranks of baseball's elite in 2016 while dynamic young stars like Dansby Swanson, Ozzie Albies, and Sean Newcomb were either already in the majors or very close. The Braves seemed on the rise and the farm system was only getting better. The job had to be enticing with a new park, a winning tradition, and so many pieces in place. Why had the Braves settled for an organizational lifer as their manager? Why had they been so focused on guys like Black and Washington over younger and hungrier - not to mention better fits - like Dave Martinez, the longtime second-in-command under Joe Maddon? None of it made much sense.

Perhaps today's article by Rosenthal speaks to why these strange decisions have been made. For all of his flaws, could you really blame Wren for wanting to run the organization the way he wanted? For wanting the manager he wanted? For wanting to be the general manager the way he wanted to be a general manager? I would say no.

Three years later, many of the same figures are in place in high-profile or, at least, influential positions. Could we really blame Coppy for wanting more of an active role in deciding the makeup of the Braves front office - decisions he was not allowed the luxury of making after Wren's sacking in 2014? And if there is any truth to the idea that Coppy is testing the waters, what might come next? Could the Braves scrub most of the coaching staff, including its beleaguered manager, and start anew in 2018?

And shouldn't that be his decision anyway? After all, when the 2015 season concluded, the Braves elevated Coppolella to the general manager position. Isn't it about time the organization give him the responsibilities it once handed Schuerholz so willingly?

A lot of this is perception, I admit. We are not privy to the closed door meetings taking place. Perhaps Schuerholz has voluntarily moved to the side while telling his former pupil to, "call if you ever need to bounce ideas off someone." Maybe the article over-exaggerates the idea that there is any sort of power struggle between the two camps. I would like to believe that is the case, but we've seen this script before. Again, Wren had many flaws and made a number of poor decisions along the way. In no way am I suggesting that his firing wasn't appropriate. Nevertheless, the Braves did him few favors by micromanaging him nearly as much as he attempted to micromanage the organization. It would be a shame for them to do the same to such a capable GM in Coppolella.

After all, it's his team now.

Right?

Saturday Stats Pack: Catching, Atlanta's Non-Manager, Acuna's Exploits

Johan Camargo's Shocking Season

Camargo started at shortstop Friday night and singled once in three trips to the plate. His average actually dropped a tad to .327 in the process. That's how's Camargo's surprising rookie campaign has gone to this point. Over 40 games, the switch-hitter has on-based .355 due to just a 4.5% walk rate but has shown new-found pop to keep his slugging a shade under .500. His numbers are remarkably similar to his Gwinnett metrics this season, though with a higher strikeout percentage. He's also benefitted from a .410 BABIP. Rather than address the chances his production remains stellar - that's not the purpose of this column - it's worth noting that we started to see some changes from Camargo last year (his ISO went up nearly 40 points) and at the age of 23-years-old, it's not unheard of to add muscle. To that possibility, people I've spoken to point out he that looks bigger and stronger than ever before. If the BABIP does fall - and I predict that it will - Camargo still could turn into a nice piece that belongs on a major league roster and maybe not all that glitters is gold, but in Camargo's case, some of it might just be.

The Starting Rotation Is Close to Something

Tonight, Jaime Garcia takes the mound for the Braves. With a good game, he could push his fWAR over 1.0 for the season. Right now, the Braves still do not have a 1-win starter and only Jim Johnson has crossed that plateau as a pitcher for the Braves. Garcia is sitting at 0.9, slightly ahead of both Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb at 0.7. R.A. Dickey, whose recent success has been a big factor in the Braves looking better of late, has upped his season total to 0.6. To put that in another way, many people laughed at the Padres for starting Jhoulys Chacin on opening day - a guy the Braves gave away for a rookie-level lefty project last season. Chacin currently has a 1.2 fWAR. Granted, WAR is not the end-all, be-all of numbers, but it's a pretty damning reality of the state of the Braves' rotation.

Catching Strength

One surprising thing about the Braves this year has come from the production behind the plate. While Tyler Flowers impressed in limited action last year, not a lot of people felt he would repeat the effort this season considering mediocre career numbers. Hardly anyone thought Kurt Suzuki would add much with the bat, either. The results so far speak for themselves. Of 30 major league teams, only the Giants, Dodgers, Tigers, and Astros have a higher fWAR from their catchers than Atlanta's 2.3. The Braves rank third in catcher batting average, second in OBP, and ninth in slugging. The .352 wOBA ranks fourth while the 115 wRC+ is good for fifth. Atlanta has been blessed with tremendous catcher production over the years. Since 2000, they've twice reached 6 fWAR from the backstop position. While that is far too high of a goal right now, this year's unit has a shot for a 4 fWAR season - which would be the seventh such season since 2000 by Atlanta's catchers. Not too shabby for a combined $4.5 million in base salary.

The Other Freeman

I still don't know what to think of Sam Freeman. In a way, I like him more now after his ERA has been rising than I did before. And yes, this is a strange time to bring up Freeman after giving up three runs against the Nationals before the break and surrendering a home run by Paul Goldschmidt yesterday to blow a lead. Is Freeman a shutdown reliever? No. But can he be a useful arm? His 57.5% groundball rate, 3.80 xFIP, 3.81 SIERA suggests that he can. The problem is that those numbers might be soft. Throughout his career, he's carried reverse splits in parts of six major league seasons. Against righties, he's been a bit more useful with a .221/.323/.300 slash and a 20% strikeout rate. On the other hand, lefties have handled him with a .261/.377/.390 slash while striking out 24% of the time. This year, he's been effective in a LOOGY role with a .212/.281/.288 slash against lefties and a 30% strikeout rate. It's righties he can't get out (.397 opposing OBP). Is small sample size the reason for this? My gut says yeah, but relievers are a strange breed. Their numbers can fluctuate one way or the other. Until Freeman proves his career rate is more accurate and his left-hand split climbs, you have to relegate him to LOOGY time. However...it might already be doing that. Since June 1, the last 35 lefties he's faced have as many hits as they do strikeouts - ten. His righty split isn't all that good either (.275/.370/.350, 46 batters faced). I hear that A.J. Minter guy is coming along, though...

Snitker: The Non-Manager

One of the most unnerving things about Brian Snitker is how the game manages him, not the other way around. A questionable bullpen that has allowed the third most runs-per-game would likely prompt a manager to make a lot of bullpen moves. That's compounded by a rotation that often struggles to avoid big innings. However, Snitker has gone to the pen 286 times - about the league average. That's not in itself a terrible thing - you don't want to burn out your relievers, after all. But under Snitker, Atlanta really plays up bullpen roles over strategy. Get six innings out of your starter and then follow the flow chart. Are you losing? Go with your young and unproven arms for one-to-two innings a piece. Are you winning? Go to Jose Ramirez in the seventh, Arodys Vizcaino in the eighth, and Jim Johnson in the ninth? Tied and on the road? Jason Motte/Ian Krol in the seventh followed by Ramirez and Vizcaino. Wait until you have the lead for Jim Johnson. You can bet he's lost without Vizcaino and Motte right now. There's little-to-no strategy involved here and the numbers point to that. Atlanta relievers are tied for the third fewest outings with runners on base. That means they often come in with the bases empty - typically to start a frame. They've thrown the second-fewest multiple-inning outings (1.1 ING and above) and are a bit below-the-NL average in outings of fewer than three outs (i.e. specialists). They also have the second-smallest average outs-per-game. Those numbers suggest that Snitker expects his relievers to be one-inning guys in assigned roles. Good managers make decisions based on the needs of the game. Snitker manages like he's still in the minor leagues. Give your starters innings and reach a pitch count. Give your relievers an inning and go to the next. There's little thinking involved and the Braves have suffered as a result.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Teenage Pop

Ronald Acuna posted a .895 OPS at Double-A. That's not just outstanding, but enough to convince the Atlanta Braves to promote him to Triple-A. He's only 19 years-old and that won't change until a week before Christmas. He'll have over 30 games in the International League before the end of the season - should he not get promoted before that. It's rare enough to be in your Age-19 season in the International League and that alone is an accomplishment. Last year's only teenage rookie position player was Acuna's new teammate, Ozzie Albies. But what would happen if Acuna not only stayed in the IL as a teenager but produced at a similar clip as his pre-AAA days? For starters, let's add some context using one of the game's best players - and the MLB.com twitter account's favorite player - Bryce Harper. Over a 21-game run in 2012 as a 19-year-old, the man with the hair hit just .243/.325/.365. It's difficult to find teenagers who received at least a 30-game attempt in the International League, let alone find successful ones. The last one to post an OPS over .800 as a teenager in the International League - brace yourself, friends - was Melvin Upton Jr. Back in 2004, the 19-year-old hit .311/.411/.519. By the way, when our old buddy was doing that, Acuna was seven.

Cuban Imports Raking - When Healthy

The Dominican Summer League Braves have struggled this season with one of the weaker pitching staffs and a just as weak offensive club averaging 4.31 runs per game in a league in which teams average 4.95 per. They are not being helped by the absence of Juan Carlos Negret, who hasn't played since June 30. I am not sure for the reason, but Negret was hitting a robust .306/.451/.528 over 19 games with 11 extra-base hits and eight steals before disappearing. Recent addition and fellow Cuban-born outfielder, Henry Quintero, could help fill the void. Over his first three games, Quintero went 4-for-8 with three doubles and a triple. Unfortunately, he left that third game after being hit by a pitch to lead off the first and hasn't played in the team's last three games. With the DSL offense slumping, it would be big for them to get either one of these Cuban imports back.

Danville's Pitching Staff Holding Up

With most of last year's top picks already in Rome and this year's top two drafted arms in the GCL, the Danville pitching staff could have been in line for a bad season. So far, it's held up to post the second-best ERA in the Appalachian League and its 4.05 ERA is nearly 60-points below the league-average. It hasn't been all good as the shoddy defense has led to 27 unearned runs through 22 games. Still, Danville has looked pretty decent despite the lack of star power. Kyle Muller is the currently ranked prospect with the D-Braves, placing 16th in our recent Midseason Top 50. He's K'd 26 in 23 innings while walking ten over five starts.

Saturday Stats Pack - Freeman, Krol, Ender, Bonifacio

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

203 wRC+

I can probably make an entire article out of the absolutely insane numbers Freddie Freeman is posting, but for today, let's focus on his Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+. This is one of my favorite offensive stats because it combines total offensive performance, park factor, and league factors all in one easy to compare statistic. Freeman is currently one of six players over the 200 wRC+ mark - that is to say, they are 100%+ better than the league average. Since 1960, we have only seen seven 200 wRC+ or better seasons. Barry Bonds did it four consecutive years from '01-'04 while Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas each did it in the strike-shortened 1994. Mark McGwire's 70-homer campaign in 1998 is the only other example of this elite form of accomplishment. No Brave has ever done it. In fact, the closest a Brave ever came was Rogers Hornsby's one season with the Braves back in 1928 (196 wRC+). Hank Aaron holds the top Atlanta-mark with a 191 in 1971. Can Freeman keep up the pace? History is not on his side, but if he was able to do so, it would be a historic season for the Braves.

Going-Going-Gone

Ian Krol was an excellent performer for the Braves last season with a 2.91/2.97/2.81 FIP/xFIP/SIERA triple slash. There was plenty of reason to believe he would continue to help anchor a bullpen that supposedly was improved. Instead, he is one of the primary reasons for the pen's struggles. His groundball rate is down nearly 16%. This has led to more flyballs and with his hard-hit rate up nearly 10%, more of those flyballs are traveling a long way. He surrendered four homers last season. This year? Four in 37.1 fewer innings. To put that in another way, 23.5% of his flyballs have turned into goners. That's highly unlikely to continue and if it did, it's impossible to believe he would reach the 50-inning plateau. But if that rate continued over 50 innings, his 23.5% HR/FB rate would rank as tied for the tenth worst since the stat was introduced in 2002. Some of the names ahead of him - Todd Coffey, Yohan Flande, Roman Colon, Sergio Mitre, and Jonny Venters. Yep, Venters had a 24% HR/FB rate in 2012, which is also the last time we saw him in the majors.

Now the Unquestioned Best?

You are forgiven if you think Kevin Kiermaier is the best defensive center fielder in baseball, but so far this season, there is little reason to doubt that Ender Inciarte has been on top of the heap. The converted infielder Odubel Herrera is currently the only one who is a worthy challenger to the throne. On the year, Inciarte has a 6.7 UZR. His ARM rating is second to Billy Hamilton. No player has made more out-of-the-zone plays and he's playing even better than he did last year when he won a Gold Glove. Not sure if anyone has ever said this before - let alone put it in song-form - but for right now, Ender Inciarte is simply the best. He truly is better than the rest.

5.7 IP/GS

It's a strange dynamic the Braves have. They rank just outside the top ten in innings-per-start from their rotation and are tied for tenth is quality start percentage. Despite that, no team has given up more runs per game from their starting rotation than the Braves. No team has a worse average game score than the Braves. Here's something that's also funny - no team has bequeathed fewer runners than the Braves. Brian Snitker's managing style to this point has been to let his starters try to work through whatever troubles they have and complete innings. Some of that has to be due to a troublesome bullpen, but there's also a trust-factor related to the veteran staff.

Boni's Value

I know I have been critical of Emilio Bonifacio's continued usage of a roster spot, but he is on at least one leaderboard. Only Martin Maldonado has attempted more sacrifice bunts and nobody has put more bunts down successfully than Bonifacio. He's 4-for-5 and part of the reason the Braves have attempted the second-most sacrifice bunts in baseball. Not sure if we should celebrate that - especially since they are about average at putting them down - but it's something. I guess.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack

Gwinnett - 25% 

With him back in Gwinnett after a short time in Atlanta, let's look at one of the stranger stats in the system. In 66 PA, Lane Adams has a 25% ground-ball rate. To put that into perspective, much has been made about Yonder Alonso's re-worked swing to get more elevation on the ball. It's working wonders for him and his groundball rate went from 44% to 24.7% overnight. Adams has always been in the low 40's in groundball rate so it's worth a look to see if this continues.

Mississippi - 20% or better

Imagine being a Southern League hitter facing the Mississippi Braves. You know they will bring their vaunted rotation with them, but just how tough have they been on hitters? Each of their starters has carried a 20% or better strikeout rate this season. Kolby Allard has a 20.4% rate, Max Fried checks in at 23.3%, Matt Withrow is next with a 23.4%, Mike Soroka is at 23.9%, and Patrick Weigel is a shade under a quarter of all batters as he K'd 24.8%. Weigel has since been promoted, but don't rejoice Southern League hitters. His replacement, Luiz Gohara, was striking out 26.7% of Florida State League batters.

Florida - Breakthrough Power

It's fair to criticize the Braves taking a chance on Alex Jackson. Not only had he been a failure in the Mariners' system, but he had work ethic concerns. I wasn't critical, though. I spoke of minor improvements in his batted ball rates and plate discipline. Truth be told, I was just reaching for reasons to show my optimism was fact-based. So far, I apparently had reason to believe good things were coming. In 33 games, Jackson has bashed ten homers while hitting .309/.363/.604. He's also posted a .431 wOBA according to Fangraphs. Defensively, he still has some issues to work through - as he should since he's played in the outfield since being drafted and is switching back to catcher - but so far, this trade looks like a good one for the Braves.

Rome - ERA Not Telling the Whole Story

With a 4.03 ERA, it's easy to ignore Joey Wentz when compared to Ian Anderson and Bryse Wilson, each with much more impressive marks. However, Wentz betters both in FIP and xFIP (2.26/3.29). This is due to Wentz's polished performance on the mound. He's walked just 5.7% of opposing batters, nearly 4% less than Wilson and close to 9% less than Anderson. While his strikeout rate is well below Anderson's, it's just a tick below Wilson's and like Anderson, he hasn't surrendered a homerun. No matter how you slice it, for the second consecutive season, the Rome Braves have an uber-exciting pitching staff.

Best #62 in Braves Franchise History

(Series Note: Baseball-Reference was used for a collection of players so this series is as complete as their database is. No coaches/managers were included and a number had to have at least four options to be considered with two exceptions. I started from the highest available number because as I approach #1, I'll have much tougher decisions. For the complete series, click here.)

Best #62 in Franchise History

The thing about uniform numbers after 60 is that pitchers rarely use the number after one season. In today's version of The Top Player by Uniform Number (working title), I have just four choices to work with for #62 and three played under a different number while with the Braves. A fourth might occur when the most recent player suits up for next season.

Manny Acosta was the first recorded #62 in Braves' history when he donned the number in 2007. That was back when he looked like a decent relief prospect. When he switched to #46 over the next two seasons, it became clear that Acosta had mid-90's velocity, but no movement. Jairo Asencio played under two different numbers in 2009 during a three-game cameo - #50 and #62. When he returned to the majors in 2011, he was assigned #56. Three different numbers, nine total games with the team. And then, there is David Hale, who was assigned #62 when he arrived in the majors for two starts during the 2013 season. The next year, he switched to #57.

My choice for the Top #62 is...Mauricio Cabrera.

On excitement alone, Cabrera is an easy pick. The slim pickings certainly aided my decision and like others who wore the #62, Cabrera could be in a different jersey number by spring. For the moment, though, he's a runaway choice for the Best #62.

He may also be the most surprising choice simply because it looked like he might never get to the majors. Sure, he had a talented arm. We knew that when he had a 2.97 ERA with Danville as an 18 year-old in 2012. But could he find the strikezone enough to even utilize his amazing velocity?

After one more try to keep as a starter failed in 2013, the Braves shifted him to the bullpen the next year. Most of the time, a move to the bullpen can be associated with better control as the pitcher scales down his offerings for his best two or three pitches. For Cabrera, the move to the bullpen led him to worse command of the strikezone as he walked 21 in 33 innings during 2014. In 2015, it was even worse (35 in 48.1 innings) and while he was beginning to post some big K numbers, the question remained. Would he ever throw enough strikes?

It didn't seem to happen with Mississippi over 25 games to open 2016. While the strikeouts were a'plenty (only three times did he fail to record a K in a game), he was still walking nearly six-per-nine innings. Still, the Braves decided in late June that Cabrera could play a role for the major league bullpen and skipped him past Triple-A.

Cabrera hadn't walked less than five-per-nine innings since 2013. In 41 games in the majors, he walked just 4.5 per nine. While he wasn't posting absurd K numbers, he wasn't getting killed with walks and Braves manager Brian Snitker grew more convinced that Cabrera could be a high leverage pitcher for him. Over his final 29 games, he went 4-for-5 in save opportunities and picked up eight holds.

Again, Cabrera may never wear #62 again. For that matter, the control issues that plagued him in the minors could again become a problem. Regardless, for the time being, there is no pitcher better deserving of being the Top #62 in franchise history than Mauricio Cabrera.

2016 Player Reviews: Jason Hursh, Ender Inciarte, Tyrell Jenkins

With today's three in the bank, I am still not even half-way through this series, but progress is progress, right? There are a lot of players still in the mix for hypothetical spots on the 2017 roster, though as we shift toward the offseason and a plethora of moves the Braves make to try to get better next year, open slots on next year's roster will be harder to come by. Today's trio has one definite member of next year's roster in the mix - provided he's not traded. Two others could battle for a bullpen spot.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

By Tate Nations (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

 Jason Hursh, RHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: For the first time in his career, Hursh did not get a starting assignment during the season. His move to the pen actually began in 2015 when he was shifted from the starting rotation after struggling badly during a second run in Mississippi. Overall, there is not much of a difference between Hursh the Starter and Hursh the Reliever except for one thing. He induced a ridiculous amount of groundballs when coming out of the pen. He's always been a groundball pitcher, but he went from a 1.6 groundball/flyball rate to 2.5 this season. According to this article from Fangraphs, that's comparable to a 55%-60% rate. Somewhere, Bobby Cox just had dreams of Kevin Gryboski. Hursh got a look in the bigs in August, though the results were pretty ugly (in a extra-petite sample size). He finished up the season with Gwinnett with mixed results.

2017 Projection: I kid about the Gryboski comparison, but Hursh is that kind of pitcher that a manager might be tempted to utilize in "rally-killing" situations. The problem with that idea is that Hursh has very little margin for error. He won't get many strikeouts (5.5-6.5 K/9) and isn't pinpoint enough with his control to make that work for him. Hursh could provide better value to the Braves if a team sees more in him than the Braves and is willing to take Hursh in a trade. If he returns in 2017, he'll be part of a large group of pitchers trying to get a look in the spring. A trip to Gwinnett seems most likely if he's not dealt beforehand.

Ender Inciarte, OF, 26 years-old

2016 Review: It was the tale of two different seasons for Inciarte. Through his first 56 games (which includes a trip to the DL), Inciarte was hitting an abysmal .226/.293/.304. He had been relegated to the bottom of the order and it looked like it would be a lost year for the former D'Back. Instead, Inciarte righted the ship beginning on July 8. Over his final 75 games, he slashed .338/.392/.436. Until the last weekend, he didn't go back-to-back games without a hit. Back in the leadoff spot, Inciarte was integral to the offense's resurgence in the second half. While his bat failed to impress early, his defense was a full-season marvel. Briefly, he was utilized in left field, but quickly, Brian Snitker realized that was a waste of Inciarte's impressive talents. He finished the season with 13 DRS, the third best total in the majors. For the first time since Michael Bourn left via free agency after 2012, the Braves had a plus-plus defender in center field.

2017 Projection: Let's be clear...the Inciarte of the final 75 games is not a true reflection of his skill level, but a regression to the mean. We have two extreme samples of Inciarte in 2016 and the overall performance level is closer to the final numbers (.291/.351/.381) than either of the extremes. That stat line isn't too far removed from his 2015 campaign with the D'Backs. He did show some improvement with a slight climb in walk rate to nearly 8% after hovering around 5% with Arizona. What is more impressive is the improvement against lefthanders. While it deserves to be mentioned that his .355 BABIP against lefties indicates an artificially high triple slash, Inciarte still reached .319/.365/.384 - a far cry from the .288 OBP he had against southpaws before coming to Atlanta. It would be easy to suggest - especially with Mallex Smith also in the fold - that the Braves could shop Inciarte this winter. Certainly, they could, but they shouldn't sell him short. He now has 381 major league games under his belt and a 9.5 fWAR to show for it. While his numbers may never wow you, his overall value to a team is easy to see and difficult to replicate.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, 24 years-old

2016 Review: Another mixed bag, Jenkins made it to the majors this year nearly six years after being selected the 50th overall pick of the 2010 draft. In addition, his callup came just a few weeks after Jenkins was shifted to the bullpen. At that time, I felt it was the right move as I am not a big believer that Jenkins' best value comes in the starting rotation. However, with the starting staff's depth issues in 2016, the Braves moved Jenkins into the starting rotation to make his first big league start on July 6. He would make seven more starts through August 20. Jenkins had a nice run in there (3 starts, 18 innings, two earned runs allowed), but his last two starts sent his ERA skyrocketing to 6.20 when he was demoted. He appeared twice in September in the majors and ended the year with 52 innings pitched, more walks than strikeouts, and nearly a dozen homers surrendered. His minor league numbers were better, but nothing to write home about outside of 2.47 ERA matched with a 3.61 FIP.

2017 Projection: When he was acquired by the Braves, Jenkins was a top pitching prospect in a system that didn't have many to speak of. Now, he's lost in the crowd. There has always been a bit of disconnect between the potential pitcher Jenkins could become and the pitcher Jenkins has a better chance of being. He won't be 25 until next July, but progression has been lacking to this point. He did reach 120 innings for back-to-back years - something he never did with the Cards. Nevertheless, Jenkins will need considerable refinement to be a serious starting pitcher possibility for the Braves moving forward. A best-case scenario could see Jenkins developing into a Derek Lowe-type where he induces a lot of grounders and logs innings. I feel a more likely option is that Jenkins grows into a Cristhian Martinez type of reliever who can give you a few innings in mostly low-leverage opportunities. While that role has some value, it's a far cry from the hope the Braves and their fans had when he was acquired from the Cardinals nearly two years ago.

See more player reviews.