Walk-Off Talk 1.5: Finding A Partner (Part 2)

(Previously...on Walk-Off Talk...Ryan and I tried to find some interested teams for the two most valuable soon-to-be free agents on the Braves, Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips. Today, we look at four more pending free agent assets who don't have markets that aren't nearly as robust. Events occur in real time.)

Ryan,

@JMotte30

Last year, John Coppolella turned Hunter Cervenka into Michael Mader and Anfernee Seymour so we know the guy can find quality players for a reliever, but Jason Motte isn't Cervenka. He's not left-handed, he's not 26, and he doesn't carry a half-decade of team control. Is it even worth talking about Motte as a tradeable asset?

To be fair, Motte has been a nice find. He's kept his ERA around 2.00, picked up three holds, and stranded 11 of 15 runners he's inherited. But there are some issues here and that's not only related to the fact he turns 35 today. One, he's been about as lucky as a pitcher can be. The guy has an ERA nearly four runs under what his FIP is at. He's found a way to carry a negative WAR with a 2.14 ERA, which should be impossible. He has a 100% LOB%. His BABIP is a hyper-low .179.

Motte's going to crash and he's going to crash quick. And none of the numbers I cited are secret. While some teams are more stats-savvy than others, it's hard for me to accept that anyone thinks Motte has pitched as well as his ERA states. While we could certainly talk about some teams who are need of relief help, I see Motte more likely to be an added piece in deals involving Jaime Garcia or Brandon Phillips (or others we'll talk about later). Similar to how Jim Johnson was basically attached to the Hector Olivera (CHANGE TO He Who Must Not Be Named) deal. Am I wrong? Do you think there are teams that are going to actually target Motte?

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Tommy,

No. Next?  Just kidding. I think you’re spot on when it comes to Motte as he’ll be a guy that gets attached to another player, if at all! He’s someone that the Braves fans should appreciate this year as he’s been brought in the midst of madness with runners galore and has stranded 11 of 15. Forget that some balls are hit so hard that they nearly take off the infielders’ gloves right before they double up the guy running back to 2nd, that’s a pretty remarkable feat. Velcro him to someone and let’s get another young flamethrower up here.

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Ryan,

I think we will also have similar reactions to the next two players - R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon. Let's address the knuckleballer first. He is coming off possibly his best start as a Brave where he tossed seven quality innings against the Giants. I say it was possibly his best start because eleven days before that, he had a Game Score v. 2.0 of 82 against the Phillies, which slightly edges the 81 he put up against San Francisco. Unfortunately, those starts were sandwiched around an eight-run, three-homer affair against the Nats. Since the beginning of 2013, Dickey has a FIP of 4.68 and it's only getting higher.

The righty does carry a - relatively speaking - affordable $8M club option for 2018, but will anyone bite on Dickey (ouch)? It seems hard for me to find a match. Maybe a team like the Red Sox who like the versatility of having a knuckleballer who can serve as a swingman? They lost Steven Wright after all and kept Tim Wakefield around despite some gross numbers toward the end of his career. That's about all I can come up with at this point. A few more games like last weekend, though, and things could change in a hurry.

As for Colon, I know you are going to suggest the Mets and honestly, it's the only option I see as well. Though, I kind of look at it like Julio Franco in reverse. The ageless one left the Braves for the Mets and really struggled in '07. They released him in mid-July and three days later, the Braves added him for the remainder of the season. I see the Mets maybe pouncing on Colon (ouch?) should the Braves cut him, but hard for me to see them giving the Braves anything - even a non-prospect.

And by the way, I think I'm being optimistic here in including two teams that might have any interest whatsoever at this point in either Dickey or Colon.

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Tommy,

Let’s talk about R.A. Dickey and the history of his knuckleball: it gets better with the age of a season. For his career, his ERA during months of March/April is over 5. In May, 4.41. From there?

• June- 3.50
• July- 4.14
• August- 3.89
• September/Oct- 3.45

If there’s a team that knows this about Dickey, he could most definitely be looked at as an innings eater that could keep them in the game. However, that doesn’t negate the current numbers and that his ERA is 4.91. I like your idea about the Red Sox and there could be a match there, but aside from some salary relief, I don’t think there’s reason to discuss return at this point as it likely will be a player of little to no impact.

As for Bartolo, I think it’s Mets or bust, and if the Mets have an underperforming player they’d like to give the Braves in return for Bartolo, that’d be fine with me. On Twitter a few weeks back, I suggested a Bartolo for Josh Smoker deal. Smoker would have to be inserted on the 40-man, but he’s a LH flamethrower that’s finding success in the minors, but hasn’t translated to the bigs yet. Send Mets Bartolo, pay all but 1MM of his salary, and get a lottery ticket in return.

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Ryan,

Smoker? I hardly knew her.

Sorry. I mean, I’ll take any assets as I can for Colon as long as it doesn’t add to the financial bottom line, though I have to admit that I don’t have a lot of faith there is much chance of a deal.

Keith Allison (CC by 2.0) via Wikipedia Commons

Moving on to the Braves’ final one-year contract, let’s look at Kurt Suzuki. Back when the Braves signed Suzuki, I was a little disappointed. I didn't see the point in handing over the backup catcher gig to Suzuki over going with an open competition between Anthony Recker and a cast of thousands. So far, though, Suzuki has been pretty darn impressive. I'll take a wRC+ of 91 out of a backup catcher especially when he's ninth in the league in outside-of-the-zone strike percentage according to Statcorner.com.

It wouldn't be the worst thing to bring him back for 2018 depending on how he finishes this season, but if another team is looking for stability behind the plate and is willing to serve up a prospect or two, I'm definitely going to consider things.

• Arizona - The Diamondbacks have the worst fWAR among their catchers in the majors. Chris Iannetta and Jeff Mathis are both underperforming veterans, though Iannetta has mashed eight homers. Finally, there is Chris Hermann, who hit well last year, but has returned to the third catcher status that followed his career in Minnesota. Both Iannetta and Mathis score well in pitch framing, though Hermann does not. I imagine the Diamondbacks would be more interested in a better solution than Suzuki, but the market is thin and Suzuki might be one of their best options should they seek an improvement.
    
• Toronto - Russell Martin has underperformed, but Suzuki would not steal his playing time. Rather, this is about depth. Toronto started the season with our old friend Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate as the backup, but after he managed just a single in 26 PA (with 16 strikeouts!), the Jays moved on to Luke Maile, a 26 year-old in his third year who has hit .185/.211/.292 over 245 PA. The Jays could definitely use some help here.
    
• Cleveland - Roberto Perez was a bit of a postseason name, but he's hit just .159/.235/.216 this season. Yan Gomez isn't exactly lighting it up, either. Both do provide good defense and Perez is a particularly gifted framer. They don't seem like a good match on paper, but they might be interested in adding some depth.
   
• Washington - Matt Wieters' great start is a distant memory. He's reached 0.0 fWAR and nobody is talking anymore about how the Braves should have got him. Jose Lobaton, his backup, is a great receiver, but with Wieters cooling, might the Nats be interested in a better bat behind him? 

On one hand, the market isn't huge for Suzuki, though you could make an argument that half (if not more) of the league could use a better backup catcher and Suzuki is one of the better ones in baseball this season at providing just that. Do you think there might be abother player here I haven't listed?

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Thanks for asking, Tommy.

While I’ve had a few others that on the surface look like matches for Suzuki (Angels, Red Sox, Rockies), I think you’ve covered the main players. However….

I think the team that really could use Suzuki is a team you’ve discussed, and that is the Diamondbacks. They’re having a pretty good year and could use a fresh veteran presence behind the plate. There’s a LHP out of Vandy in their system that isn’t putting up great numbers at AA despite having great strikeout numbers: Jared Miller. He’s the perfect kind of upside for the Braves to take a risk on and he’s performing poorly enough to where the Diamondbacks would trade him.

But let it be known, I want to see the Braves extend Suzuki. I was of the same opinion as you when he was first signed, but his value as a backup to Tyler has been...well...valuable. I like 2 veteran guys catching our young guys going forward and I’d like to see these 2 back behind the dish in 2018. Obviously, the Braves could do both, trade him then re-sign him in the offseason, and that would be the best of both worlds as long as Suzuki is cool with it.

Braves Monday Roundup - Rome Goes 19, Soroka, Youth Movement

Welcome to the second Braves Monday Roundup. This series was supposed to be a way to recap the week in short fashion while freeing up Monday for a more focused look at a player or whathaveyou at my other blog, where I used to post weekly 5 for Monday articles. However, as I mentioned a few times this week, my other blog will be no more. About.com has restructured and the About Sports department got the ax. It's unfortunate, but alas, it's business. The advantage to that development for this blog means more content. I'm going to be saving some of the articles from About and should it completely disappear, I will be republishing the best stuff here.

Speaking of content, I will continue to do my shameless plugs, but I will put them at the bottom of this post rather as a headliner like I did last week.

5 Stories You May Have Missed

Rome Plays 2. Counts for 1
-On Sunday, the Rome Braves visited Hickory with Ricardo Sanchez on the mound. It was a matchup between the team with the best record in the South Atlantic League and Rome, who entered Sunday tied with the worst record. Hictory would strike first, cashing in a Alejandro Salazar error in for a run. In the second, Rome tied it up on a double-steal on a Leudys Baez strikeout. And that's how it would remain for about four hours. Sanchez had struck out six in five innings, A.J. Minter had tossed another scoreless outing, Trevor Belicek went four scoreless, and Grayson Jones added a trio of scoreless frames of his own, but the Rome offense couldn't find a way to break through. Finally, in the 18th, Baez would lead off things with a single. After a bunt and walk, Salazar would benefit from an error this time as a throwing error brought home a run. Bladimir Matos couldn't make it stick, though. He hit a batter and walked one. A wild pitch pushed both into scoring position and with one out, a fielder's choice scored a run. Matos got out of it, though, setting the stage for a wild 19th inning.

After a single, flyout, and the fifth error of the day by both teams, another error off the bat of Baez scored Rome's third run. The next four batters all reaches safely with the seventh error of the day advancing Ray-Patrick Didder to third. He would score on a Luke Dykstra flyout. Finally, Yepez brought home a final runner with a double. Rome had plated SEVEN runs in the 19th. In the bottom half, Rome switched Yepez to third so that Yeudi Grullon could pitch. The infielder walked one, but had a quiet 19th to finish the game. There will be few games crazier this year at any level.

Soroka Impresses
-The blog "Notes from the Sally" is a must-read for any minor league baseball fan. This week, John Calvagno profiled right-hander Mike Soroka. Drafted 28th overall last season out of Calgary, Soroka impressed Calvagno with his fastball and curve. Calvagno's greatest compliment is one that I've heard a few times when Soroka's name has come up. "Hard to believe he's just 18 years old." Soroka is a guy who should only climb up midseason prospect charts.

Braves Rotation Gets Younger
-Many people looked at the roster that broke camp and saw a plethroa of veterans from Bud Norris to Eric O'Flaherty to Jeff Francoeur and wondered, "if this is a rebuild, why all the old fogies?" Well, the thing about all of those veterans is that they make nice placeholders. The starting rotation has especially went through a youth movement already. With Norris shifted to the pen and Jhoulys Chacin traded, it left Julio Teheran as the only starter with at least 25 starts in the majors, according to the AJC's Michael Cunningham. Not only that, but the Braves had five starters who have yet to celebrate their 26th birthday when no other team has three. Last year, the Braves became the first team in history with six pitchers logging at least 15 starts who were 25-and-under. 2016 is not looking any different.

Right Field at SunTrust Will Be "Signature Item"
-One of the complaints with Turner Field is how...boring it is. From foul pole to foul pole, there are no nooks and crannies. No oddities that is special to Turner Field. Instead, Turner Field was built to be as normal and basic as you get with a bigger focus on the team on the field than ivy in the outfield, a Green Monster, a stupid hill in center field, or any number of things that make other ballparks unique. Suntrust Park, on the other hand, is designed to be different. One of the "signature items" will be brick wall right above 10 feet of padding in right field. The wall will be in play so hitters will have to hit the ball over it for homeruns. Otherwise, if it hits the brick, the outfielders will have to play how it caroms off the brick. It should be something to keep an eye on early next year.

Did the D'Backs win the Upton Trade?
-ArizonaSports.com's John Gambadoro wrote last week something that I felt had long ago been decided and was not up for debate. Except, Gambadoro came to the opposite conclusion as conventional wisdom. His position - the Diamondbacks won the Justin Upton trade. The mega deal completed in the 2012-13 offseason sent Upton and Chris Johnson to the Braves for Randall Delgado, Martin Prado, Nick Ahmed, Zeke Spruill and Brandon Drury. At the time, Diamondbacks GM Kevin Towers was criticized for the move, but Gambadoro looks at the deal with a fresh perspective and comes away with the idea that the D'Backs got the better end of the deal. Now, there is something to be said that the D'Backs didn't do as badly as many felt they did with this trade, but it's short-sighted to come to the conclusion that Arizona won it. While the writer focuses solely on Upton, he misses the trade that sent Upton to the Padres for Max Fried, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, and Jace Peterson. While Jace is back in the minors, Mallex looks like a potential starter, Dustin is raking, and Fried is back on the mound and showcasing his knee-buckling curveball. Those four players should be mentioned - especially since the writer mentions what the Diamondbacks got in the Prado exchange. Ultimately, like I said, the deal doesn't look nearly as bad now as it did when it happened, but it's still not looking good for Arizona.

Trivia Question
-Last week, I asked the question - "Since 2000, what pitcher had the most scoreless games to begin his career." The answer was not Hunter Cervenka, but Brad Ziegler, who began his career with with 29 games (and 39.1 innings) of scoreless ball out of the Oakland Athletics bullpen. It was Melvin Upton who ended the streak with a go-ahead double off Ziegler in a tie game. This week's question focuses on the fact the Braves have just four players who have a hit a homerun this year. "In the expansion era (1961-to-present), and excluding the streak-shortened 1981, what three teams have tied for the fewest players on the team to hit at least one homerun?" I'll give you a hint on one of the teams. Let's Play Two. Tweet at me if you know the answer.

Birthdays
-Billy Martin would have been 88 today. Martin, best known for being George Steinbrenner's favorite toy, played in six games with the Milwaukee Braves during the 1961 season. Also celebrating a birthday today is Sean McLaughlin, a right-hander with Carolina, who turns 22. Tomorrow, Pascual Perez would have been 59. Jordy Lara, an infielder for Mississippi, also has a May 17th birthday and turns 25. The following day, Marcus Giles turns 38. The powerful player made my Favorites Braves squad. Current righty Williams Perez will turn 25 on Saturday. On Sunday, Rio Ruiz will be just 22.

Shameless Plugs
Transaction Tuesday - Recapping a pair of trades, Adonis Garcia's demotion, and the promotion of A.J. Minter and Juan Yepez.

Braves Cash in Chacin - Atlanta traded pitcher Jhoulys Chacin last week as a means to sell high on the righty. My impression is that they may have sold too soon, but I understood the impulse.

Have any Braves Pitchers Hit Two Homers in the Same Game? - After Noah Syndergaard went yard twice last week, I fired up the Baseball-Reference Play Index and sought to answer that question.

Cherishing Cervenka - Unfortunately for Hunter Cervenka, I completely jinxed him as he surrendered his first runs later that day.

Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - In the first of a ten part series where I alternate between the Worst and Best drafts since 2000, I started last week with the fifth worst.

Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Topics included hitting fewer homers than games won, Nick Markakis not hitting any homers, Julio Teheran's durability, and how awesome Arodys Vizcaino's advanced metrics are.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack - Dustin Peterson, Dansby Swanson, and Ray-Patrick Didder among others were keyed on for this week.

Random Prospect Sunday - This week, I focused on Steve Janas, a righty who nearly threw a Perfect Game last season.

Thanks for reading and remember to follow me on Twitter.

Cherishing Cervenka

There is some degree of luck that goes into how dominant Hunter Cervenka has been as a Brave. You don't throw 10.1 scoreless innings - spaced out over 15 games - from the moment you arrive in the majors without a little luck. You don't give up just one hit in that time frame without being on the right side of the baseball Gods. It takes great fortune to have a 5.6% line drive percentage at any point in the season. But even as we must be reserved in our expectations, Cervenka's start deserves a great deal of praise. Yet, we also much know that when things finally begin to normalize, what do the Braves actually have?

Since coming up from Mississippi in the wake of Daniel Winkler's gruesome conclusion to the 2016 season, Cervenka has been a tough puzzle for hitters to solve. For instance, 14% of the time hitters swing at one of his pitches, they miss. That's 4% over the league average, but it's par for the course since Cervenka signed with the Braves last summer. 17% of all swings were missed by hitters Cervenka faced as a Gwinnett Brave in 2015. That rate slightly increased to 19% this year with Mississippi and the league average is roughly half that. The league average describes Cervenka as a member of the Cubs organization.

As a Brave, things have changed. While it's a very small sample size, Cervenka has relied so much on his slider that he's one of the nine major league pitchers who have both thrown ten innings this year while throwing at least 45% of their pitches for sliders. Cervenka's slider is very hard on lefthanders and it's also thrown very hard. The average velocity on a slider is about 84 mph. While varied sources have Cervenka's slider charted differently, Brooks Baseball (my most trusted source) suggests that Cervenka throws about an 88 mph slider with a high-end of 90.5 mph. That's the definition of a hard slider. Unsurprisingly, the pitch currently has a 2.4 wSL/C - or it's 2.4 wins above the league average per 100 sliders.

Lately, Cervenka has been mixing in his third pitch - a curveball. This is less a concerted effort and more because he has faced an increased amount of right-handed batters. It doesn't have the dominating quality of his slider, but the off-speed delivery helps to keep players from keying in on his fastball. As Cervenka continues to perform well, he will get more opportunities to refine his curveball because of increased opportunities.

It's natural to be concerned about regression to the mean and we are promised an element of that. His expected fielding independent pitching, or xFIP, is currently 3.68 (sample size alert) while his FIP is a bit more exciting with a 2.32 mark. Again, both are warped by the sample size so we have to keep things in perspective. That said, a pair of the best tools used for predicting future success are giving us a range that - at worst - paints the picture of an effective reliever while at the top end, shines the spotlight on the possibility of Cervenka being an outstanding reliever. The truth will reveal itself as Cervenka logs more innings.

A couple of Baseball Prospectus' stats are also very kind to Cervenka. FIP in Context, or cFIP, currently is graded as an 88 for Cervenka. The stat, which uses 95-105 as the average and anything over it as below average to Bud Norris territory, means that Cervenka's 88 cFIP has been above average so far and on the cusp of greatness. DRA, or Deserved Run Average, is another good predictor of a pitcher's real performance and future ERA. For Cervenka, the mark is 3.38.

When you pool together all of the numbers, it's hard not to get too excited about Cervenka. It's as if you force yourself to remember it's just 15 games and 10.1 innings over and over. On the other hand, let's not get too bogged down with the expected regression to the mean. Cervenka will certainly allow a run at some point, but that won't change the fact that he has been an absolute find by the Atlanta Braves scouting department and coached up to unlock potential his former employers like the Red Sox and Cubs ultimately failed to see. That deserves major kudos from all involved.

Of course, since I praised him so richly, he's destined to struggle tonight. Then again, by mentioning that I expect it, the Baseball Gods will flip the script once more. I'll cross my fingers.

Braves Monday Roundup - Teheran, Carlyle, and more

(A small note to start. For regular readers, I am changing up things and dropping the 5 for Monday concept at atlantabraves.about.com. Rather, I will use Mondays to touch on something of significance or interest at that blog and move some every week tidbits (trivia, birthdays) over here.)

Before we start, here are my shameless plugs (articles I've written over the last week).
AtlantaBraves.About.com
- Julio Teheran's Turnaround - Investigating what has been different about Julio Teheran since the terrible beginning of the year.
- Should the Braves Ax Fredi Gonzalez? - It's everywhere and Fredi Gonzalez's job security seems to fall with each embarrassing loss. Should Atlanta make the move?
- Saturday Stats Pack - This week, I focus on Aaron Blair's struggles to get a dubya to begin his career, the lack of power, and how Atlanta position players rank in WAR.
- 5 Steps Toward a Better 2016 Braves Ballclub - Quick and easy changes for the Braves such as batting Freddie Freeman second, starting Tyler Flowers, and optimizing Ender Inciarte's defensive capabilities.

Walk-Off Walk
- Transaction Tuesday - Braves move around top prospects Dansby Swanson and Ozzie Albies while continuing to use the Danville roster as a taxi squad.
- Minor League Saturday Stats Pack - #WilliansWatch is over, Rio Ruiz is getting respect from Triple-A pitchers, and a pair of Braves pitchers dual to have the most innings without giving up a homer.
- Random Prospect Sunday - This week, I focused on Luke Dykstra. With a father like Lenny Dykstra, it can't be easy for Luke to blaze his own trail.

5 Stories You May Have Missed

Want More Fans MLB? Get Baseball in Front of the Next Generation
-Outfield Fly Rule's Micah Smith dives into a real problem for baseball - attracting new fans. One of baseball's biggest issues is getting the game in front of young viewers. As Smith says, "Blackouts, exclusive rights, late start times, these hurt the creation of new fans because they limit opportunities for sports-uncommitted youngsters to witness a fan-creating moment." Baseball is not only losing new and younger fans, it's losing the next Freddie Freeman or Aaron Blair as those guys are playing the much more appealing football and basketball. While baseball seems more interested in expansion, its these issues that will continue to plague the sport.

Four Pitchers Who Could Help the Dodgers' Rotation
-From Think Blue Planning Committee comes a fan generated list of four starters that could help their team. Julio Teheran made that list. While there is no smoke here (except that Teheran has been mentioned as a trade candidate off-and-on since last season), the Dodgers could be an intriguing option with a bevy of young pitching including Jose De Leon and Grant Holmes and interesting bats like outfielder Yusniel Diaz and catcher Austin Barnes. The Braves certainly don't need to move Teheran, but as the blog suggests, it's hard to see the Braves saying no "for the right package."

Atlanta Braves Play Chicken
-In a scathing review on the Braves and their practices, The American Spectator's John Calvin argues that the Braves should be bound by a competitive clause. He skewers Atlanta for essentially tanking, taking in massive amounts of revenue, and how their minor league teams have hurt the financial rating of the towns that now support their teams. It's an interesting view of the Braves and baseball in general.

Guest commentary: Economic development and the Atlanta Braves
-On the heels of the previous link comes this one from a local to the Naples, Florida area where Atlanta has tried to get permission to build a new spring training home. The article, which appeared in the Naples Daily News, shows just how building these stadiums - while great for the team and their fans - are not so great for the locals.

Braves, winless on replay challenges, add ex-pitcher Carlyle to help
-Let's turn the page to happier news. This week, the Braves announced that they were bringing back Buddy Carlyle - this time as replay assistant. You may remember that it was Horacio Ramirez who used to man the job, but Ramirez left to attempt to continue his baseball career. Atlanta did not immediately replace him and instead gave the added task to Rob Smith, the manager of baseball video operations. Results have not been so good on that so the Braves have now brought back Carlyle, who I previously wrote about because he was one of the few likable pitchers the Braves had in 2007.

Trivia Question
Two weeks ago, I asked, "Before 2015, when was the last time a Brave led the team in homeruns, but failed to hit 20?" @MP4 tweeted the correct answer - Bob Horner with 15 in the strike-shortened 1981. This week's question: Hunter Cervenka has now gone 14 appearances without giving up a run to begin his career. That is a new Braves record. Since 2000, what pitcher had the most scoreless games to begin his career? If you know the answer, send a tweet to @WalkOffWalk1.

Birthdays
-Happy birthday today to a trio of current farmhands and a former Brave as Ian Krol (25), Jace Peterson (26), and Aaron Harang (38) all get a year a year older. Tomorrow, May 10, will be current Brave Matt Tuiasosopo's 30th birthday and hopefully future Brave Lucas Sims' 22nd birthday. Wednesday is Kerry Ligtenberg's 44th birthday while Thursday sees Wes Helms turn 40 and the first Atlanta Braves hitter, Felipe Alou, turn 81. Moving to Saturday, El Presidente, Dennis Martinez, turns 62 and threw his last pitch as a major leaguer with the Braves in 1998. A teammate on that roster, John Smoltz, turns 49 on Sunday.

Picture of the Week

Al Bello/Getty Images