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Showing posts with label Hudson. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hudson. Show all posts

Saturday, July 29, 2017

TOT - The OTHER Teixeira Deal

Chris J. Nelson (CC SA 3.0), via Wikipedia Commons
Transaction of Today...July 29, 2008 - The Atlanta Braves traded Mark Teixeira to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim for Stephen Marek (minors) and Casey Kotchman.

It was the moment that the Braves resigned themselves to admit that their swing-for-the-fence effort the previous July failed. On this day nine years ago, the Braves sent the dynamic first baseman, Mark Teixeira, to the Angels for a pitifully small package of talent considering what they had themselves paid a year before. It would be one of the few and final mistakes for a general manager who tried desperately to squeeze one final contending effort from his squad. John Schuerholz, who will be enshrined in the Hall of Fame tomorrow, overestimated the need for the Atlanta Braves. Fortunately for Atlanta, he was right more times than he was wrong during his 15+ years at the helm.

Let's flash back to 2007 because we simply can't tell this story otherwise. On July 29th, the Braves beat the Arizona Diamondbacks 14-0 behind seven wonderful innings from Tim Hudson, homers by Andruw Jones and Scott Thorman, and a five-RBI day from Chipper Jones. Thorman and Chipper Jones were joined by Edgar Renteria and Kelly Johnson up the middle on the infield. Meanwhile, Andruw Jones was flanked by Jeff Francoeur and a productive platoon of Matt Diaz and Willie Harris in left. Add in Brian McCann behind the plate and the offense was pretty darn good. Well, with the exception of Thorman and Andruw, who again both hit homers that day. The centerfielder from Curacao was coming off a five-year sample where he slashed .266/.352/.524 with nearly 200 homers. This included his 2005 near-MVP season. However, things just never got going for Jones in '07 and he hit an abysmal .222/.311/.413. It would be the beginning of the end for him.

Meanwhile, Thorman was struggling after being handed first base following the trade of Adam LaRoche. He would hit just .216/.258/.394 during the season and worse, Craig Wilson had flamed out after being brought over from the Pirates to help. The Braves first tried to use Jarrod Saltalamacchia, a top prospect at catcher, to help fill in and by mid-July, they acquired the 48-years-young Julio Franco after the latter was cut by the Mets. None of these options were exciting.

Despite the holes at first base and center field, the Braves were 55-51 on the season and 4.5 games out of the division race and just a couple games behind the Dodgers for the NL Wild Card. John Schuerholz thought the Braves had one last run in them with the remaining core from those great Braves' teams that routinely ran away with the division crown. John Smoltz was 40, Chipper was 35, and Andruw was 30. This would be the final summer all three would be with the Braves.

So, Schuerholz pulled the trigger on July 31. With the young McCann in place, the Braves felt Saltalamacchia was blocked and better used as a trade piece. They then packaged Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus, a pair of exciting prospects who were a few years away from contributing, with Matt Harrison, a southpaw close to the majors with a middle-of-the-rotation grade. When the Rangers waffled on Harrison's medical reports, Atlanta threw another prospect, Beau Jones, in the deal to smooth things over. Texas also added left-hander Ron Mahay in the deal to help out a Braves bullpen that had lost its best southpaw in Mike Gonzalez to injury.

The Braves also added relievers Octavio Dotel and Royce Ring that day in other trades. The focus was clear. With Teixeira added to an already impressive lineup and a shutdown bullpen that also had Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, and Bob Wickman, the Braves were betting on being able to outhit the other team and shut them down late. All of this effort was to mask what was the 2007 Braves' true problem - the starting rotation. In Hudson and Smoltz, the Braves had a pair of excellent pitchers who qualified for 51 quality starts between them. The rest of the team managed 30. The rest of the rotation read like a who's who of bad pitchers who have started for the Braves over the last decade - Chuck James, Buddy Carlyle, Kyle Davies, Jo-Jo Reyes, Lance Cormier, Mark Redman, Anthony Lerew, and Jeff Bennett. All of these pitchers had a FIP of 4.78 or better.

The 2007 Braves were the Spahn and Sain and Pray for Rain of a new generation. But the Braves saw a way - a very narrow path, I grant you, but a way to the playoffs. However, the dream crashed quickly. During a damp night on August 2, Renteria went deep in the hole after a ball hit by Ty Wigginton and came up lame. The Braves, who had already used their two backup middle infielders in Yunel Escobar and Chris Woodward, were forced to move Chipper Jones to shortstop. Renteria had a sprained ankle. Luckily, the Braves had Escobar, who had been sharing time with Johnson at second. Still, the Braves needed everything to go right for Schuerholz's plan to work and Renteria going down wasn't going to help. Neither did losing Dotel, who pitched just nine times after the deal.

Atlanta pressed on, though. Before the arrival of their new teammates in Atlanta, the Braves blew out the Astros 12-4 on July 31 to improve to five games over .500. Atlanta actually did pretty well down the stretch, but bad luck and an offense that wasn't quite as dynamic as advertised led them to a 28-27 finish (despite the second-best run differential down the stretch in the NL). Schuerholz hung up his GM reigns and passed the responsibility of getting the Braves back to the playoffs to Frank Wren.

Wren completed a deal that first was brought up while Schuerholz was in charge, sending Renteria to Detroit for Jair Jurrjens. He added Josh Anderson, Will Ohman, Omar Infante, and Mark Kotsay as he navigated the little financial freedom he had with the needs of his team. He also approached Scott Boras and Teixeira about a new contract. Boras, notorious for pushing his players to hit the open market, helped to convince Teixeira to pass on the contract. It's not known what that deal may have been, but here's some context - Teixeira had declined a $140M, 8-year deal from the Rangers the previous spring.

Teixeira would continue to hit like Teixeira. Over 103 games to open the 2008 season, Teixeira hit .283/.390/.412 with 20 HR. But the 2008 Braves were hopeless. Francoeur fell on his face, but worse, the pitching staff was again a failure. Smoltz went down early and Hudson went down later that summer. While the rookie Jurrjens was impressive and the Braves unearthed some surprising contributions out of Jorge Campillo, the rest of the staff was just awful. With the bullpen managing to convert just 26 saves, the Braves limped to a 45-50 start at the break. Selling was a real possibility for a team that often was buying at the deadline.

After winning just four games of their first ten coming out of the All-Star Break, the Braves waved the white flag. The Angels came calling with an offer for Teixeira. They had failed to acquire the first baseman the previous summer but were now anxious to finally get their guy. They offered Casey Kotchman, but the Braves balked asking for top pitching prospect Nick Adenhart and a third player in addition to Kotchman. The Angels counted with Kotchman and a Double-A reliever, Stephen Marek, who wasn't one of their best prospects by a mile and waited for the Braves to blink. It was a buyer's market and they knew that. Ultimately, Wren couldn't get enough action from Arizona, Tampa Bay, Boston, or the big pockets of the Yankees and Dodgers, to acquire something better. He accepted the Angels' miserable offer.

Kotchman wasn't a terrible consolation prize, though. He had hit .296/.372/.467 the previous year, his first as a full-timer in the majors. He was also hitting .287/.327/.448 at the time of the trade and at 25 years-old, wasn't far removed from being a top prospect in all of baseball. His numbers with the Braves were never that good, though. He slashed .267/.346/.378 as a first baseman in the National League - which wasn't acceptable. The Braves continued their revolving door at first base by trading Kotchman the next trading deadline for Adam LaRoche, the guy whose original trade opened the door for Thorman, whose poor play prompted the trade for Teixeira in the first place.

Marek made it to Triple-A, but never appeared in the majors. His career was over after 2012.

Meanwhile, Teixeira would help the Angels get to the playoffs, where they would lose to the Red Sox in four games. He then signed for $40 million more than the Rangers had offered two years before when he joined the Yankees for an eight-year, $180M contract. The Angels made out okay, though. They offered Teixeira arbitration after the playoffs and after he signed with the Yankees, the compensation pick turned into the #25th overall pick of the 2009 draft. Which turned into Mike Trout. Which turned into the tears of Braves Country.

The second Teixeira deal is a tough one to swallow - both for the players the Braves surrendered to get him and the package they received. Nine years ago today, the Braves tried to get anything - anything at all - to soften the blow the pending loss of Teixeira would bring. Ultimately, it didn't do that. It just made it more clear how things went the wrong way from the moment Teixeira was acquired.

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Braves TJ Victims

(Here is Ryan Cothran's third piece for Walk-Off Walk. Soon enough, he's going to have to get his own account working here at WOW :) His first piece, which was an analysis into BABIP, can be found here. In addition, his second piece, which discussed recent bullpen improvements and what's coming up the chain, can be found here. Remember to follow Ryan on twitter.)

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
I’ve been a can’t waiter for years. I’m no longer going to be a can’t waiter. For the sake of my sanity, I can’t be a can’t waiter. What is a can’t waiter, you might ask? I guess I could assume you can’t wait to know. Well, I can’t wait to tell you.

A can’t waiter is an individual that looks at the Minor League teams of which he/she roots for, scours the roster, finds players that are having serious success, pines for said players to receive call-ups immediately, and talks daily how they can’t wait to see them kicking butt in the MLB like it’s a given that they’ll:
  • Stay Healthy  
  • Dominate the best baseball players in the world as much as they’ve dominated lesser players (although much better than anyone who’ll likely read this, your’s truly included).
Of the 2 listed above, the Braves have taken an extreme gamble by rolling the dice on (A) in their acquisitions/signings.  When I was writing for Tomahawk Take, I noticed a serious trend of the Braves signing/acquiring players that were either recovering at the time from Tommy John surgery, hadn’t made it back to the field from setbacks from Tommy John, or hadn’t found the success they were seeing prior to going down with injury.  I called it the Braves form of Moneyball, and you can click to see the old article.

*Disclaimer: Let it be known that aside from roster spots, a small chunk of change, and patience out the WAZOO, this gamble has been relatively small in terms of players traded and risks involved. 

At the time, it seemed really smart. Most of MLB teams weren’t in a place to offer these guys guaranteed money, give them a 40-man spot, or go through the bumps that comes with pitchers pitching back to form.  I thought it was brilliant!  In hindsight, it hasn’t worked out in most cases.  It was a gamble that others weren’t taking and with a rebuild in-tow, it was worth giving it a shot.

On Twitter, there have been many to poke fun at the Mets and their lacking ability to keep their pitchers on the field.  The Braves haven’t been much better. Their own list is VAST! While many of these didn’t succumb to injury while pitching for the Braves, it doesn’t negate the fact the we as Braves fans should not wag tongues or point fingers.  Here is a likely incomplete list of pitchers that have been in the organization in the last 5-6 years and have had the surgery:

Players that have been in Braves Organization and had Tommy John Surgery

Current Major Leaguers
  • Jason Grilli - TJ surgery early in his career and came back a stronger and more efficient pitcher. 
  • *Arodys Vizcaino
  • Eric O’Flaherty - hasn’t been same since 2013 surgery.  70 innings total, but 40 innings of bad baseball with the Braves
  • Alex Wood - traded in 2015, injured most of ‘16, and pitching brilliantly currently with Dodgers
  • Jason Motte - TJ in 2013, has pitched mediocre baseball since return. Been pitching well lately.
  • Sam Freeman - TJ in 2010, has had mixed results, although I’m not sure it’s related to TJ. Has been pitching brilliantly the last few weeks.
  • Peter Moylan - Had TJ surgery in 2008, was effective for the next 3 years in a Braves uniform. Has struggled lately with the Royals.
Current Minor Leaguers
Retired Major Leaguers
  • Billy Wagner - Had TJ surgery in 2008, came back dominant in Boston and then Atlanta
  • Tim Hudson - TJ surgery in 2008, pitched effectively for rest of his career.
Not currently affiliated with any team
  • Michael Kohn - Had TJ surgery in 2012, other arm injuries have kept him from contributing.
  • *Paco Rodriguez
  • Mark Lamm - Had TJ surgery, never made it to MLB and was last pitching in the Indy Leagues
Notice the players with asterisks and lack of breakdown? Know what they represent?  They’re some of the source of the “can’t waiters” happiness. These players were either bought low on due to injury or drafted low due to injury. They had big ceilings at one point and lost their luster due to injury. But should we be putting stock into these guys? Let’s dissect a bit…

Man, I can’t wait til we see *insert recovering flamethrower*

Manny Banuelos - When the trade went down, it was looked at as a landslide win for the Braves. Now? Manny is no longer with the Braves being DFA’d at the end of 2016. Meanwhile, Chasen Shreve has been part of the Yankees bullpen the last 3 years, pitching over 100 innings with a mid-3s ERA. All the while our left-handed relief pitching has been a dumpster fire for those 3 years.

Paco Rodriguez - Was a bit of a throw-in in what is likely to go down as the worst trade of Coppy’s tenure. Was recovering from Tommy John when acquired and spent time rehabbing. After looking fair in 2017 Spring Training, he was released and word was leaked that he had poor work ethic.

Arodys Vizcaino - Acquired from the Yankees, traded to the Cubs, re-acquired from the Cubs, Vizzy has pitched 86.2 innings of good baseball out of the Braves bullpen, but has had his fair share of injuries along the way and hasn’t totaled 40 innings in either of the 2 full years since acquisition, granted the first year was due to an 80-game suspension.  He’s been pitching lights out lately.

Josh Outman - Gifted with an ideal surname for a pitcher, Outman was a buy-low project prior to the 2015 season due to 2014 Tommy John surgery and thought likely to break the Braves 25-man roster. He ended up pitching 8.2 innings in the Minors and had shoulder issues nearly the entire year.

Andrew McKirahan - Claimed from the Marlins and already down a Tommy John surgery, McK got busted for cheating, returned and pitched poorly for the Braves in 2015, then re-ripped his UCL, and hasn’t pitched since mid-2015. He's currently in the Reds organization after an offseason trade.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
Jesse Biddle - Had Tommy John surgery in 2015 and was claimed by the Braves in March of 2016 by the Pirates. He’s now pitching meaningful games in Mississippi with mixed results.

Max Fried - Acquired from the Padres in the Justin Upton deal, Fried was recovering from Tommy John surgery and was deemed recovered at the end of the 2016 season. Down the stretch, he was absolutely dominant but has struggled with consistency in 2017 which is very common the first year after Tommy John.

Daniel Winkler - A personal favorite of mine (but this was when I was all-in on the strategy of acquiring Tommy John guys and stashing them) pitched 4 innings in MLB between ‘15&’16 before breaking his elbow AFTER he’d already rehabbed from Tommy John. He's a rule-5er so he has to stay on the 25-man roster unless he’s on the DL. Currently, he’s still at extended Spring Training strengthening.

A.J. Minter - Would’ve been drafted early in 1st round had it not been for blowing out his elbow pre-draft. He’s had some flare-ups in the elbow area and other ailments that are apparently non-elbow related. Still, he’s only pitched 1 inning this year and remains out with no timetable set on his return.

Jacob Lindgren - Pitched with the Yankees, blew out his elbow, then they tried to sneak him through waivers. He was picked up by the Braves and will miss the entire 2017 season. He, like Minter, are key “can’t waiters” in the organization.

Has this strategy paid off for the Braves Front-office?

What is the expectation? In essence, I guess one can say that most of these guys were/are lottery tickets and anything gained is just gravy (examples: La Stella/Vizzy+INT slot money, Winkler in the Rule 5), but some cost real players (Fried/Man-Ban/Paco), roster spots (Winkler/McK), and high-draft choices (Minter). Thus far,  Man-Ban DFA’d, Paco released, Outman out, McK cheated then re-broke himself then was released, and Winkler rehabbed then broke elbow again.

The only success story that has played out in the bigs has been Vizzy and he’s not been a guy that a manager can give the ball to 70 times a year. Hopefully, this changes this year and we can reflect on the Tommy John Survivor strategy as a positive one.

Obviously, we have yet to see Minter, Lindgren, Fried, and Biddle, and there’s still a chance that Winkler can come back and be a force out of the bullpen, but we as fans need to be cautious when our expectation of these guys is that they’ll be healthy AND dominant.  It’s just not that simple.

A Piece of Advice for Myself

Pitching health in today’s game is so fickle. Pitching health after suffering a major injury, undergoing major surgery, and grinding through an extensive rehab is a crapshoot.  When it comes to these guys, we as fans might benefit by looking at them as luxuries rather than unequivocal future pieces. Be excited about these guys, watch them grow as pitchers, root for them to stay healthy, but learn from my mistakes and refrain from putting them in the category of “Can’t Wait” guys. Rather, leave them in a separate chamber of your heart that is more accustomed to heartbreak.

Thanks for reading! Go Braves!

Thursday, March 9, 2017

Thursday Throwback - Reed Johnson

Sometimes, moves just don't pan out like they ought to. That was the case of the 2012 midseason trade that sent Reed Johnson, along with Paul Maholm, to the Braves. The trade was born out of a move that didn't happen and ultimately, failed to deliver despite looking like a good deal on paper for Frank Wren. Even when Wren made the right move, it just didn't seem to work.

But long before that trade, Reed Johnson was born a few weeks before Christmas in 1976. A product of Riverside, California, Johnson was a star in both baseball and soccer in high school. His success there landed him a coveted scholarship opportunity with Cal-State Fullerton, where he was an Academic All-American and posted strong offensive numbers as a catalyst for the Titans' offense. Undrafted out of high school, Johnson played well enough during his college years to move into the 17th round of the draft, which is where the Blue Jays took him. The '99 draft wasn't very good for the Jays. They took Alex Rios with their first round pick and he did develop into a decent player, but only three other players made it to the majors, including Johnson, the second-best player taken that year by Toronto.

After a summer of adjusting to pro ball, Johnson became an overnight prospect in 2000. He spent the year at two different A-ball stops and slashed .298/.420/.479, flashing plus-plus plate discipline and enough power and speed to be a very intriguing prospect. In 2001, this time at Double-A, Johnson became a name to watch. Spending the year with the Tennessee Smokies, Johnson slashed .314/.384/.451. The walk total was a bit of a letdown, but Johnson filled out his baseball card with 29 doubles, four triples, 13 homers, and 42 steals. The Southern League All-Star looked like he was a great late-round find for the Blue Jays and a player that could help them very soon.

After missing most of 2002 with injury, Johnson worked his way into the picture for the big league club in 2003. After opening the year in the minors, Johnson would soon establish himself as a major league performer with a strong summer. In 114 games in the majors, Johnson hit .294 with 10 homers and a .353 on-base percentage. The Jays had opened the year with super sub Frank Catalanotto in right field, but an injury to Shannon Stewart opened left for Catalanotto and allowed Johnson to slide into right field. Bobby Kielty would later join the team, cutting into Johnson's playing time, but Johnson proved his worth by being the Blue Jays' most used leadoff hitter.

For the next two years, Johnson was the regular left fielder for the Jays and was unspectacular in his job before a breakout 2006 campaign saw Johnson hit .319/.390/.479 with 12 homers. He led the AL in getting hit by a pitch that season as well. However, his success was short-lived. During an injury-marred 2007 season, he hit just .236 over 79 games. Johnson struggled the next spring as well and with the Jays feeling a roster crush, Toronto surprisingly released Johnson as spring training was nearing its end. The five-year pro would not remain available for long as he landed with the Cubs. A bench bat and platoon player, Johnson was a perfect fit in Chicago. He OPS'd .778 his first season with the Cubbies before slashing .255/.330/.412 during an injury-shortened 2009 season.

Johnson took his talents out west and played for the Dodgers in 2010, which wasn't much of a trip from the city he was born (Riverside). He struggled with in Los Angeles, though, and lasted just one year before returning to the Cubs in 2011. Like he had never left, his success returned.

That brings us to the 2012 season. The Cubs were in the first year of their rebuild under Theo Epstein. The former Red Sox mastermind had just hired Jed Hoyer to be their General Manager. That season, the Cubs were breaking in young Anthony Rizzo at first base (who, interestingly enough, Hoyer had dealt to the Cubs as the Padres' GM) and Chicago was trying to add young talent to the mix to build what eventually would become a winner. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves were trying to get back to the playoffs after their 2011 collapse during then-manager Fredi Gonzalez's first year at the helm. The Cubs and Braves seemed like a perfect match and a week before the trading deadline, a deal seemed imminent. However, neither Johnson, nor lefthander Paul Maholm, were part of it.

Atlanta was desperate to add a starter to their team that they could count on. With Jair Jurrjens looking like a lost cause, the Braves had turned to Ben Sheets. 25 year-old Tommy Hanson was struggling and Brandon Beachy, also 25, had made just 13 starts before going down with injury. They still had Tim Hudson while Mike Minor was improving, as a team with playoff aspirations, Atlanta did not have the kind of rotation that would be able to compete against the big boys of the National League. Atlanta thought they had found their man in Ryan Dempster. The former closer had been excellent to begin 2012 with a 2.11 ERA through his first 15 starts. While Dempster wasn't an ace, he was the kind of bulldog starter that gave his manager and general manager a bit more confidence than hoping Sheets could make it through the summer or that Hanson could turn the corner.

Wren and Hoyer found the right mix of players that would make the deal happen. Atlanta would send young Randall Delgado to the Cubs, which would finally separate the four pitchers of the future (Minor, Delgado, Julio Teheran, and Arodys Vizcaino). Another prospect would head to Chicago as well and the Braves would get Dempster. One little problem, though. With over 14 years of experience, including eight full seasons with the Cubs, Dempster qualified as a 10-5 player and could nix any deal. Dempster was open to a trade, but preferred to head out west where he could join his good buddy Ted Lilly and the Dodgers. While Dempster weighed his options - and definitely held out hope for a move to the Dodgers - the Braves grew agitated. All the perimeters were agreed upon and the deal had been leaked out to the public. Wren set a deadline for Dempster, but the right-hander refused to make a decision as he held out hope Los Angeles would step up. Atlanta ultimately took themselves out of the process rather than watch Dempster play the part of the girl with a date to the Prom all lined up, but is still hoping to go with the high school quarterback rather than the dude that actually wants to be with her. Not that I know anything about that...

The Braves still wanted a pitcher, but could not find a Dempster-like arm on the trade market. Instead, they called Hoyer up and asked about Maholm. A long time Pirate, Maholm had joined the Cubs the previous offseason and he was also having a good season. Not a great one like Dempster, but would give the Braves a serviceable left-hand arm for their rotation. Meanwhile, the Braves did find their front-of-the-rotation arm by moving Kris Medlen into the rotation.  Coming along for the ride with Maholm and some bags of cash was Johnson. The Braves were stacked in the outfield with rookie Jason Heyward joining Michael Bourn and Martin Prado, but the prospect of adding a right-handed bat like Johnson to pair with Eric Hinske coming off the bench was a great fit. The Braves still broke up their four previously untouchable arms by sending Arodys Vizcaino to the Cubs in the deal along with reliever Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino was on the mend after having Tommy John surgery that spring.

Johnson got into 43 games down the stretch for the Braves and hit .270. He would get fairly regular time with Prado moving all over the field and helped to give the Braves their first real backup option to Bourn during the 2012 season. Both Prado and Bourn would be gone the next winter and would be replaced by Justin and Melvin "B.J" Upton Jr. Johnson, a free agent, liked Atlanta enough to return for a second year. He missed all of August with Achilles tendinitis, but missed even more time because Johnson was not a regular in the mix for the Braves even with the failures of the elder Upton. Instead, Johnson took a back seat to Jordan Schafer, who had returned after being claimed on waivers, and rookie Evan Gattis, who occasionally played left field to get his bat into the lineup more often. Johnson received five fewer plate appearances than Gerald Laird during the 2013 season and Johnson struggled to connect the bat to the ball with any authority.

During his year-and-a-half with the Braves, Johnson hit .256/.308/.332 with one homer, a pinch-hit two-run shot off former Braves farmhand Todd Redmond - then a member of Johnson's first team, the Jays. Johnson would struggle during a 2014 season spent as a reserve in Miami and continued his tour through the NL East with a stop in Washington next. A torn tendon in his left calf limited him to just 17 games with the Nats. He returned to DC the following year, but failed to make the roster coming out of camp last spring. I do not know if he's given up the dream of playing baseball again or not, but at 40 years-old, it seems unlikely that he'll continue his career.

His time with the Braves was short and ultimately uneventful. In the end, like many of Wren's deals, it just never worked like it should have. Of course, the Braves ended up re-acquiring Arodys Vizcaino from this deal so it cost precious little for Atlanta - even if it wasn't the deal they wanted.

Previous Throwbacks...
Mike Mordecai (1994-97)
David Ross (2009-12)
Ryan Langerhans (2002-03, 2005-07)

...or view ALL of them.

Friday, January 27, 2017

Braves Bring Back the Meds

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
In 2013, the Atlanta Braves had finally come together. Frank Wren's team was young - Dan Uggla was its only starter over 30. Frank Wren's team was also very powerful and bashed 181 homers led the league. Sure, they struck out a lot, but they also scored runs in bunches.

But lost in all of the feast-or-famine articles about the Braves' offense was its fine pitching staff. While Brandon Beachy would miss most of the season, the Braves got breakout years from Mike Minor and Julio Teheran. Young Alex Wood also pitched in, which became important when Eric Young Jr. shattered Tim Hudson's ankle one night in Flushing.

The 2013 Braves also had a righty who had finally stayed healthy all year and earned an every-fifth-day assignment in the rotation in Kris Medlen. "Meds" had been lethal down the stretch in 2012 after finally receiving a late promotion to the rotation. The Santa Ana College alum followed it up with career highs in most categories in 2013.

But then, like Breachy, Medlen would not make it out of the 2014 spring training before needing a second Tommy John surgery. It was the first couple of dominoes to fall in what would be a franchise-altering season. Wren would be fired and a rebuild would be ordered - one that would not include Medlen, as he was non-tendered after the 2014 season.

There was some hope the Braves might bring him back, but two weeks after Atlanta cut him loose, the Kansas City Royals promised him $8.5 million to come to the midwest. His rehab took a long time, but Medlen finally returned to the majors on July 20, 2014. He had a few stinkers mixed in over a 15-game run with the Royals, but still pitched his way onto KC's postseason roster. He would pitch twice - once as a long reliever after Johnny Cueto got blasted and the other time in KC's World Series Game Three loss to the Mets.

The hope was that Medlen would stabilize a Royals' pitching staff in 2016 that would lose Cueto and was thin beyond newcomer Ian Kennedy, veteran Edinson Volquez, and young Yordano Ventura (may he rest in peace). Instead, Medlen would struggle over six starts - especially with uncharacteristic wildness. His shoulder was hurting, which put him on the shelf He made a pair of comeback attempts, but was never able to get back to the Royals. His final outing of the year included retiring just one of the five Oklahoma City Dodgers he faced before being lifted with a line of 0.1 ING, 4 H, 4 R, 4 ER.

Let's try to compare the Medlen the Braves loved so dearly with the Medlen whose 2017 option was declined by the Royals. Pitch-wise, little has changed as far as usage and velocity go. He relies heavily on a low-90's sinker, throwing it 38% of the time last year. In fact, when you combine his four-seamer, about every other pitch on average is a fastball. He'll supplement that with a biting curveball that flutters to the plate at about 78 mph along with a changeup that has averaged 2-3 ticks faster since leaving Atlanta. He started to use a cutter toward the end of his Braves' stay and used it a lot more last year to mixed results.

One clear difference in Medlen since leaving Atlanta is related to release point, which the chart to the right shows courtesy of Brooks Baseball. In 2013, the ball was between roughly 5'9" and almost 6" feet off the ground when Medlen released the ball. Once he returned in 2015, he was releasing at more of a lower 3/4's rather than the high 3/4's of 2013. As a sinker-baller who depends on controlling the ball low-in-the-zone, not being able to get on top of his pitches won't help his effectiveness.

Medlen is a nice lottery ticket for the Braves to add - even as a relief option rather than a starter. If they can straighten his mechanics and get him to drop his changeup from the 84-85 mph range, it would be a big boost. Whether it was losing feel, the different arm slot, of Royals' coaching, Medlen lost his best pitch when he left Atlanta. In 2012, his changeup had a 16.6 wCH as far as pitch value goes. He didn't have enough innings to qualify for the ERA title so he didn't make the lead leaders list, but that pitch value would have ranked second. The next year, his breakout starter campaign, his changeup had a 12.6 wCH pitch value. That ranked sixth. It was his one true dominant pitch and it's been worth -2.4 since. That has to change.

At his best, Medlen can fool hitters with his fastballs and changeups and go to his curveball for strike outs. We haven't seen that version of Medlen since 2013. If the Braves are lucky, we could see it again in 2017, though it won't be until midseason at the earliest. Until then, it's nice to hope.

Thursday, June 9, 2016

Best 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #1

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000

The  Best Draft Since 2000...The 2000 Draft
By Keith Allison from Kinston, USA (Kelly Johnson)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Earlier today, I went over the 2001 draft, which I labeled the worst since 2000. What made that draft so frustrating was that despite having six of the first 105 overall selections, the Braves got precious little out of it. It might be equally frustrating that it came just a year after a similar case of a plethora of picks. But this time, the Braves turned it into a big haul, which showed just what Atlanta was capable of doing in the draft. You win some, you lose some.

The final Braves' team of the 90's was also their final chance to claim ultimate glory, but a quick four-game sweep at the hands of the Yankees ended that dream. Still, the '99 Braves were a thing of beauty. In his Age-27 year, Chipper Jones had been named MVP. Andruw Jones, five years younger than Chipper, had posted a .365 OBP and his second consecutive 20/20 year. He was already well on his way to being the greatest defensive center fielder in baseball history. The rotation was aging, but had received a boost by a breakout season from Kevin Millwood, who struck out 205 batters. John Rocker replaced an injured Kerry Ligtenberg as closer and dominated. The team was expected to be good for a long, long time.

The minor leagues were stacked with talent from Rafael Furcal to Wilson Betemit to Marcus Giles to Matt Belisle. The Braves looked prime to only add to their already embarrassment of riches. Free agent defections after the 1999 season would give them extra selections to keep cycling through talent. Russ Springer, a good middle reliever, brought back a compensation first rounder (#29th overall) from the Diamondbacks. He also brought a supplemental pick at the end of the first round (#40th). Jose Hernandez, who only spent a couple of months with the Braves, brought the team the #38th overall selection after he signed with the Brewers. The Braves would also receive the Brewers' second rounder, #51st overall. There was literally no penalty for trading prospects for trade deadline talent back then. Atlanta had given the Cubs pitchers Micah Bowie, Joey Nation, and Ruben Quevedo for Hernandez and southpaw Terry Mulholland. They also got #38th and #51st pick. They effectively gave up three pitching prospects for four players. It's no wonder small-market teams hated the compensation system.

The Braves also received an extra fourth rounder, #106, because the Devil Rays signed Gerald Williams. If you ever wonder why the D-Rays needed so much time to be good, 2000 is a good example. Due to signing free agents, the D-Rays picked #6th overall and then took a long nap before their next spot came up - #136th in the fifth round. To compare, between both of Tampa Bay's first two picks, the Braves would draft nine players.

As the first round started, the Braves had a target. Would that target fall to them? They allegedly were spreading news around that Adam Wainwright had some injury concerns related to his right elbow with the hope that it would scare off enough teams to free up the Braves to select the native Georgian. Whatever the truth may be, clearly the Braves were hoping that Wainwright fell to them. The Cardinals passed at #24, the Astros went in another direction at #27, and the Yankees went with the son of Lance Parrish (David) at #28. When the Yankees finished the string of six players who would be drafted ahead of Wainwright, but failed to make it to the majors, the Braves must have been crazy with excitement. They got their guy.

They would also get the next guy on their Big Board because the next pick was theirs. Rather than stick with southeastern prep athletes, they bought into the reports of sick power from north of the border and selected Scott Thorman out of Cambridge, Ontario. Eight picks later, they mined the talent-rich fields of Texas to grab Austin-native Kelly Johnson. After the Rangers made their third pick of the first round (of which, they received just three hitless at-bats out of), the Braves picked shortstop Aaron Herr out of Hempfield High School in Pennsylvania. With their two second-round picks, the Braves picked a pair of righty prep pitchers in Bubba Nelson and Bryan Digby. They stuck with the theme in the next two rounds, selecting a total of three right-handed prep pitchers in Blaine Boyer, Zach Miner, and Brian Montalbo - the latter of which would choose not to sign after being pick out of Alaska and would later be picked in the 7th round by the Brewers out of Cal-Berkeley.

What sets this draft apart from others was Atlanta's ability to find value late. Between Chris Waters selection in the fifth round and their 17th round selection, Atlanta failed to add any future major league talent. Keoni De Renne, a shortstop out of the University of Arizona, looked interesting, but ultimately failed like so many of those mid-draft picks. In the 17th round, the Braves added sturdy right-hander Trey Hodges out of LSU. Two rounds later, they picked Western Carolina outfielder Charles Thomas. Hodges would late hold down a middle relief job for the Braves while Thomas had one nice summer in the majors, which the Braves helped turn into Tim Hudson.

The Braves selected ten more players after Thomas who failed to make it to the bigs, but in the 29th round, they picked Seminole State College 1B and sometimes pitcher, Adam LaRoche. It was the third consecutive season LaRoche had been drafted. He had refused to sign with the Marlins in back-to-back years, but the Braves convinced him that his future was in Atlanta just two weeks after drafting him. Just four years later, he would be their regular first baseman. For three years, he blossomed into a steady option at first base before the suddenly penny-pinching Braves traded LaRoche after he became arbitration-eligible and handed the first base job to the guy who was drafted 850 picks before LaRoche in 2000 in Thorman. They later brought LaRoche back during the 2009 deadline to bring stability to their 1B situation, but passed on keeping him. They had their future 1B in the making in the minors (Freddie Freeman) and a long-term deal for LaRoche wasn't in the cards.

LaRoche was the last-of-nine major leaguers the Braves drafted and signed out of the 2000 draft. Waters would leave the organization as a minor league free agent after 2006 and would later pitch in 16 games with the Orioles between 2008-09. Five years after being drafted, the Braves would package Miner with right-hander Roman Colon in a trade with the Tigers to acquire Kyle Farnsworth. Miner pitched in 173 career games, mainly with the Tigers, before retiring. Boyer was a dependable member of the 2005 Baby Braves, but washed out after that. After nearly giving up, he has been a nice story of perseverance since returning to the majors in 2014 with the Padres while posting a 2.70 ERA over 123 games with San Diego, Minnesota, and currently Milwaukee.

Even though this draft would produce some big hits, the trio of Herr, Nelson, and Digby all failed to make it to the majors. Nelson was used as trade bait while Herr and Digby simply washed out. Thorman was handed the 1B job in 2007, but showed that outside of some homers that left the planet, he was not capable of reaching base. His struggles led John Schuerholz to trade for Mark Teixeira. Theoretically, had Thorman been respectable, maybe Schuerholz wouldn't have lost his mind. Maybe.

But regardless, in addition to LaRoche, the Braves had some huge success with the drafting of Wainwright and Johnson. The latter developed into a good second baseman before transitioning into a sought-after utility player. Here is something you should know Kelly Johnson. He is the fourth-best player selected in the first round of 2000 according to rWAR behind just Chase Utley, Adrian Gonzalez, and - of course - Wainwright. Speaking of Waino, Braves fans naturally bemoan his 2003 trade to the Cardinals. While J.D. Drew would help the Braves keep their playoff streak in tact, it was a lot to give up for one year of Drew. However, from a drafting standpoint, the Braves aced this pick. First as a reliever and later as a starter, Wainwright became one of the more dominating pitchers in baseball until this year. The Braves got their man. They didn't keep him, but they got him and he turned out to be everything they thought he could be and more.

Hopefully, tonight's draft yields a solid haul like the Braves got in 2000. Do you agree or disagree with any of my rankings? Let me know! What draft since 2000 should have been named the best? The worst? I'm all ears.

Saturday, May 14, 2016

Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Markakis, Teheran, Vizzy

This article used to be a staple of my time at AtlantaBraves.About.com, but with my contract with the company ending - and their sports department being blown up - I'll continue the series here.

Homers < Wins

Over the history of baseball, winning more games than you homer is not a grand accomplishment. After all, before the introduction of smaller ballparks, expansion, and the realization that chicks dig the long ball, homeruns were not celebrated like they are now. Since Babe Ruth changed the face of baseball, less and less teams have been able to win more games than their team's total output of homeruns. Almost none of them also contended for a playoff birth.

When Freddie Freeman hit his sixth homerun last week, it gave the team nine homeruns compared to just eight wins. That's the thinnest of margins and considering 66.67% of the remaining team homeruns have been shipped out with the banishment of Adonis Garcia and release of Drew Stubbs, could the Braves do something that just never happens in the modern game? Could the Braves homer fewer times than they win games?

I can't answer that, but I can say that if they did, they would be the first team in over 20 years to do so. The last team to win more games than they sent dingers flying into the seats was the 1992 Milwaukee Brewers. It was really the perfect storm for the Brew Crew that year to pull this off. Two years before, they had waved goodbye to "swing hard in case you hit it" Rob Deer. Without his steady source of power, Milwaukee needed nice homerun numbers from a pre-Coors Dante Bichette while also requiring their Hall of Fame combo of Robin Yount and Paul Molitor to not remember that they were hitting their upper 30's. None of those things happened and in 1992, Milwaukee hit just 82 homeruns, the second worst mark in the American League. Yet, they won 92 games and their 20 September wins had the Brewers just two games behind the Blue Jays with two to go. They would lose their final two games and the Jays would win the AL East, the AL Title, and...you know the rest.

By Keith Allison on Flickr
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Nick Markakis' Power Outage

In the first 832 plate appearances of a four-year, $44 million contract, Braves right-fielder Nick Markakis has nearly matched his Baltimore batting average (one point higher as a Brave) and also has maintained a statistically insignificant advantage over his OBP as an Oriole (11 points higher). In many ways, Markakis has shown no let-up when it comes to his offensive game.

Except for power, of course. No one thought Markakis would come to the Braves and hit 20 homers yearly after only doing that twice in his career (2007-08), but the expectation of more dongs was definitely higher than what the Braves have received thus far. In case you weren't aware, Markakis has homered three times as a Brave. While his gain in OBP may not be significant, his loss in slugging certainly is. As an Oriole, his ISO was .145. As a Brave, it's just .082. Now, one could argue the Braves should have seen this coming since his ISO over his final two years with the Orioles was .098, but even that would be an improvement. To bring perspective to his total of homers as a Brave, of the 51 players who have amassed 500 PA since 2000 as a Brave, only one player (Gregor Blanco) homered fewer times than Markakis. Blanco hit just one, by the way. Only one other player has three homeruns like Markakis - Tim Hudson in 250 fewer PA. None-power hitters like Melky Cabrera, Jordan Schafer, and Quilvio Veras look like Barry Bonds compared to Markakis.

He's had long homerun droughts as a Brave. His first homerun didn't come until plate appearance #396. His most recent one isn't quite as stark, but over his last 179 plate appearances dating back to when he led off September 25, 2015's game with a homerun, Markakis has just a dozen extra base hits in that time frame. All are doubles. Markakis has been productive as a Brave (105 wRC+), but it's a stretch to think he's been $44M productive.

Julio Teheran's Durability

With Bud Norris banished to the bullpen and Jhoulys Chacin traded to the Angels, Julio Teheran becomes the rotation's oldest and most experienced starter. Teheran has been amazingly durable as a professional pitcher and that has only continued as a major leaguer. Since the beginning of 2013, only six pitchers have made more starts than Teheran, who has taken the ball 104 times.

This is Teheran's Age-25 year. That's a simple way of saying what his age will be on June 30th of the season. If he picks up 22 more starts this season, he'll reach the 30 start plateau for the fourth consecutive year. Since 1990, only 16 players have done that before they turned 26. Just five reached five years of 30 GS or more by the age of 25. Only one - Felix Hernandez - had a half-dozen years of 30 GS before his 26th birthday.

Arodys Vizcaino's cFIP is Very Impressive

It's difficult for Vizcaino to find work as the Braves' closer. With so few opportunities, he has logged a lot of innings trying to keep a game tied or give the team a good inning to keep them close. He's been dominant when used - which you know if you've watched him pitch. A deep dive into his performance with Baseball Prospectus shows that he's been nearly as effective as the former Braves closer, Craig Kimbrel. So far this year, Vizzy has a cFIP, of FIP in context, of 74. That not only matches (in many less innings) Stephen Strasburg, it's not too far removed from Kimbrel's 71. DRA, or Deserved Run Average, also paints a picture of outstanding performance. When compared to their peers with 100 as league average, Vizzy has a 83 DRA-. Kimbrel's? 82. I definitely recommend further reading into both stats, but suffice it to say, each number tells us that - to this point - Vizzy has been every bit the performer the Braves traded right before the 2015 season starter. Vizzy's doing it for many millions less, by the way.

Slightly low on the number of stats for this week's stat pack, but I hope you found the ones I touched on interesting. Later this afternoon, I'll hopefully have the minor league portion of this series. (edit, here's the link.)

Thursday, April 14, 2016

Thursday Throwback - David Ross

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images
(For my take on Hector Olivera, click here.)

Backup catchers are sort of like backup quarterbacks. You might think spending money on one is a waste of resources until you need him to be there and produce. When that happens, you are happy that you had the foresight to get the best possible backup. For four years, David Ross fulfilled that role for the Atlanta Braves and they are still trying to replace him.

Born in March of 1977 in Bainbridge, Georgia, David Wade Ross later attended the aptly named Florida High School in Tallahassee. The Dodgers tried their luck with Ross in the 19th round of the '95 draft, but he passed and went to college - first at Auburn and then at Florida. It was at Auburn that he teamed up with center fielder and sometimes pitcher, Tim Hudson. Several years later, Hudson and Ross would again be teammates, but we'll get to that.

Ross had transferred to Florida for playing time and it led to him getting picked again by the Dodgers in '98, this time in the 7th round. Expected to be a power hitter behind the plate with advanced defensive skills, Ross began his minor league career in style with a .309/.412/.487 slash with Yakima in Short-Season A-ball after he was drafted. Two years later, a return trip to Florida with the Jacksonville Suns gave Ross his second .800 OPS season. He continued the good run with a .297/.384/.519 triple slash the following season with Las Vegas. His solid game got him to the majors in mid-summer of '02 and again in September. He would notably replace Paul Lo Duca in a 19-1 blistering the Dodgers gave the Diamondbacks. Long-time Cub Mark Grace took the ball to pitch the ninth and Ross put the cherry on the top with a first-pitch homerun. It was his first of what is currently 96 homeruns.

Ross missed much of 2003 before settling in as a backup in '04, though the results were terrible (.170/.253/.291). After failing to beat out Paul Bako for the backup job the next spring, Ross was sent to the Pirates. You might have forgotten he played for the Pirates - I know I did. He struggled with Pittsburgh. A late move to San Diego helped his season stats, but he still finished the year with a .671 OPS. Ross was nearing 30 and looked like a journeyman and not a particularly good one at that.

For the second consecutive spring, Ross was squeezed out of the opening day roster - this time by Rob Bowen - and the Padres dealt Ross to the Reds. It was in Cincinnati that Ross found a little stability. In his first year, he took advantage of the Great American Ball Park's generous dimensions to hit a career-best 21 homeruns with a .932 OPS. His follow-up campaign would see the power sustained (17 homeruns), but he simply could not get on base enough (.271 OBP). He would get a third year with the Reds and the results were a mixed bag. He improved his on-base ability, but his power nearly disappeared. The Reds moved on, releasing Ross that August. He briefly caught on with the Red Sox and would even play a game in the postseason.

That offseason, Atlanta was looking for stability behind Brian McCann. They had gone through Corky Miller, Clint Sammons, and Brayan Pena for two seasons. Pena was the only one to provide any element of offense, but the Braves didn't seem convinced he was a capable enough receiver. McCann had played 145 games, which is still his career-high, and by the end of the year, he continued to produce though he lacked the power he had showed so impressively earlier in the season. Ross would help the Braves in a number of ways. The Braves had gifted Todd Pratt to McCann in the latter's first full season of '06, but the still young-McCann could benefit from a guy who had seen much the game had to offer in Ross. Plus, Ross was seen as a leader for a staff that began the year with 23 year-old Jair Jurrjens and later added 22 year-old Tommy Hanson. While little was expected from his bat, the prevailing assumption was that Ross would be able to contribute a few taters and not be a complete zero at the plate like Miller and Sammons.

Year 1 went about as good as the Braves could have hoped. Ross triple slashed .273/.380/.508 with 7 HR. His pairing with McCann was brilliant and the drop-off was nearly non-existent. His leadership was also present for both McCann and the pitchers he worked with. In the second year of a two-year contract, he continued to excel for the Braves, slashing .289/.392/.479 with 13 doubles, the second-best total for any season of his career. He would go on to appear twice that postseason as a defensive replacement. One of his biggest knocks of his first two seasons came in the fifth inning of the August 31, 2010 game against the visiting Mets. The Braves had began the inning down 2-1, but a two-run double by Jason Heyward and a run-scoring single by Alex Gonzalez had put the Braves on top. A batter after Gonzalez, Ross chased Jon Niese with a Grand Slam to deep left.

After bringing back Ross on a second two-year deal, the Braves catching situation remained the best in baseball in 2011. Ross never matched his production from the first two seasons, but he slashed .263/.333/.428 in 171 PA - a stellar effort from a backup. He picked up his second two-homer game as a Brave on April 26 and on July 2, he smacked his second Grand Slam as a Brave, providing the edge against Jake Arrieta and the Orioles 5-4. On July 27, he tied a 1-0 game with an RBI single against Paul Maholm and the Pirates in the sixth and four innings later, hit a walk-off single to win the game. A year later, he remained sturdy with a .256/.321/.449 slash. While the season would go down as the year Ross started over a hurting and struggling McCann in the ill-fated Wild Card Game, I think 2012 should be all about August 8 in Philadelphia. It was on that night, as the Braves cruised to a ho-hum 12-6 win, that Ross reached first base with two outs on an error. On the second pitch to next hitter, Paul Janish, Ross stole second. In his eleventh year in the majors, Ross has finally stole his first base.

But sure, let's focus on that Wild Card Game. McCann's shoulder was shot and he needed offseason surgery to rectify the situation. The two catchers shared a good deal of time in September rather than there being a clear distinction between the two. It was McCann's worst season - well, until he became a Yankee. Over his final 19 games, McCann had hit just .209 with a .260 OBP and .328 slugging. So, it was not too surprising that Ross played ahead of McCann - yet it still seemed like it was. Ross stepped in and gave the Braves a boost, though. He singled twice and homered over four at-bats. And Fredi Gonzalez's decision probably would have been lauded had the umpires not changed what the meaning of the infield fly rule was. I'm half-kidding, of course.

The Braves had gotten away with paying Ross just $1.625M for the final two years of his Braves' run. Over his four years with Atlanta, he had slashed .269/.353/.463. He deserved a pay raise and the Braves couldn't match what he was worth on the open market. That was not a problem for the Boston Red Sox, who inked Ross to a $3.1M average salary. His season got off to a miserable as he hit the DL in mid-June with concussion issues. When he returned, he was able to regain his place as Jon Lester's personal catcher, which became important in keeping him in the mix for the playoffs. He began to steal time beyond Lester's starts from Jarrod Saltalamacchia and in Game 5 of the World Series, he picked up a go-ahead RBI double off Adam Wainwright that helped the Red Sox win and inch closer to a World Series title. Two days later, with Ross behind the plate, the Red Sox beat the Cards 6-1, giving Ross his first World Series ring.

After another year with Boston that included some miserable results, Ross again hit free agency and joined the Cubs. His first year there was miserable at the plate, though his value in the clubhouse and behind the plate still impressed many. He even pitched two games - and did really well (2 ING, 6 batters up, 6 batters down). He returns for a farewell tour this year that has attracted a great deal of attention, which is a testament to Ross the person moreso than Ross the player.

For four years, the Braves had the best catching situation in baseball with an All-Star and a capable backup. The years since have shown how rare that is to put together. With his career nearly up, one has to wonder what's next after 2016. With how well-liked he is and how his leadership is lauded, hard not to see a coaching future for Ross. Maybe that could be a pathway back to Atlanta. Just spitballing.
Rossy gets some air as Chipper Jones sends a ball through the air against the Phillies on 9/2/12.
Scott Cunningham/Getty Images
Recent Thursday Throwbacks...
Ryan Langerhans (2002-2003, 2005-07)
Special - Rafael Furcal's Near-Signing (2008)
Marquis Grissom (1995-96)
...or view ALL of them.