Some Waves are Bigger than Others

There are some in Braves country that are getting annoyed with the rebuild, and I get it (but don't agree with the mindset). The Braves traded some of their biggest names in Craig Kimbrel, Jason Heyward, and Andrelton Simmons, and thus far have not seen the fruits of that labor at the Major League level. Since the rebuild commenced, the MLB team has looked pretty lackluster, and even the pitching talent that has surfaced has likely not been what is expected...or at least advertised. 

However, if you look outside the Braves front office fluffing of a few of the early pitching prospects, you get an unbiased look at what was expected of some of these guys, and while the "ceiling" has not been met, the expectation was MUCH, MUCH less than what our fans or front office claimed.

But fret not Braves fans. On a daily basis, I get to set my eyes upon the wonders of the Gulf of Mexico and I can assure you that some waves are bigger than others. If you're familiar with the color-coded flags that frequent the panhandle of Florida that determine wave conditions, you'll be familiar with the green, yellow, red, and double red flags. Here are their descriptions:

• GREEN FLAG- Calm Condition
• YELLOW FLAG- Moderate Surf/Currents
• RED FLAG- High Hazard
• DOUBLE RED FLAG- Beach Closed to the Public

These flags represent the Braves rebuild, especially that of the pitching variety. We are in the midst of this thing, but it's about to get really rocky for other MLB teams.

LET'S GO GREEN!!!!

Two years ago the first wave of the rebuild showed up and, no doubt, it was of the green flag variety. It wasn't a threat to the other MLB clubs. But the problem was in how it was presented to the masses. Let's break down a few guys: 

Staff Sgt. Jason Duhr via Wikipedia Commons

1. Matt Wisler- Every outlet that projected this guy saw him as a guy with a mid-rotation ceiling, but prior to his promotion he was being pushed as a guy to build on by the Braves brass. This was wish-casting and fast-forward to 2017, Wisler's being converted to relief at AAA after failing to keep his ERA below 4 since 2013.

2. Mike Foltynewicz- Immediately, when Mike was traded for, Braves started discussing front-line rotation stuff.  Unlike Wisler, this wasn't much of a stretch, but many prospect gurus agreed that the floor of "back-end relief" was more likely. Fast forward 3 years, and there are flashes but it mostly looks like he'll be a mid-rotation guy for his career...and that's a win for the Braves.

3. Aaron Blair- "Mid-rotation workhorse" ceiling that turned into a big dumpster fire at the MLB level. And this tidbit: He miraculously lost 3 MPH on his fastball when he donned a Braves uni. He's now sporting a high walk rate, a low strikeout rate, and a mid-4s ERA at AAA.

4. Tyrell Jenkins- "Back-end rotation" ceiling now out of a job after being released by the Padres in July. Many, including myself, got caught up in his dynamic personality and decent ERA despite having poor peripherals that showed their true colors against the best baseball hitters in the game.

So, the GREEN FLAG wave has passed and as of now, only 1 of the 4 have come close to prospect projections. Is this more a lesson in prospect projections? Patience? Expectations? Really, it's all of the above. It is pretty rare for baseball players to live up to the hype of their prospect status, but the expectations that were thrown on this first wave to bear fruit were unfair to the players and the fans, not to mention the pressure the front office put on them with unreachable ceilings. But baseball is hard, and the guys above still have plenty of time to grow into their projections.

They call me MELLOW YELLOW

The Braves are in the midst of their YELLOW FLAG wave. These are guys with higher ceilings but have not put it all together in the MLB or MilB.

1.Sean Newcomb- The poster child for the YELLOW FLAG as Sean has a ceiling that is likely as high as anyone in the entire system, but is still plagued by control issues that were still present at Gwinnett. It's not a bad strategy for him to try to work through control issues in the midst of a punt year, but it'll be interesting to see what happens next year when the Braves are supposedly going to try to compete for the division and likely won't have the patience to run a pitcher out every 5th day plagued with the same issues that have cursed his baseball career. 

Rick Briggs via Flickr (CC by SA 2.0)

2. Lucas Sims- Once considered the Braves best-pitching prospect, Sims is now overshadowed by 2 handfuls of pitchers throughout the system.  Like Newcomb, Sims has been plagued by the ol' 4-baller, but that's taken care of itself over the last 2 years, but at what cost?  What made Sims valuable at a younger age was a fastball that had lots of movement and could hit 96.  Now his fastball sits in the low-90s. At Gwinnett this year, it didn't effect his strikeout rate as he was punching out over 10 per 9. However, in the MLB it's down to 4.7, albeit in a very small sample. The thing about Sims is if you look at projecting the Braves over the next 4-5 years, he doesn't seem to have the sticking power to stay in the rotation. His ceiling is much lower now than what it was after his age 19-season, and current projections have him as a back end guy/high-leverage reliever. It's my opinion that Sims received his 2017 chance due to his 40-man roster placement, not his performance, which was good but not really call-up worthy. As part of the yellow wave, I think Sims' best chance to stay in a rotation would be in a rotation that doesn't have a tomahawk across the chest. 

3. Max Fried- Fried is a poster child for small samples, both good and bad. His overall body of work has looked very pedestrian, but he flashes brilliance on a regular basis. Like Sims, Fried is likely on the MLB roster due to his position on the 40-man roster, but also the Braves are likely trying to keep his innings down as they've been extra cautious with guys coming off of Tommy John surgery. All of Fried's pitches are still present and his hook looks as filthy as ever, but something has held him back from tapping consistently into greatness. My guess is simply location as there's nothing else that can be pinpointed to mediocrity. He's one to keep an eye on as his ceiling is that of a 3-4 starter, but health could take him down as low as middle relief.

Red Flag?  SKIP THAT! DOUBLE RED FLAG IN FULL-EFFECT in 2018!!!

2018, the bulk of high-end pitching prospects will be at full-bloom at some point in time during the year, and it could be a wonder to behold!  Our next group all have front-line potential (number 1-2 starters) and this isn't organizational fluff but real prospect gurus with real projections.

1. Luiz Gohara- 20 years of age and flying through the minors after being mercifully removed from the Mariners' organization, Gohara might have the highest ceiling of all the pitching prospects with a serious left-handed power arm that's capable of striking out the fiercest of opponents. His issues stem from problems outside the diamond of which I'm not willing to delve into, but if he can keep those at bay, look out MLB.

2. Mike Soroka- Comparing anyone to Greg Maddux is setting them up for failure, so I'm not going to do that, but Soroka's pinpoint control is reminiscent of Maddux's reputation. Also only 20, Soroka is on pace to see time in the MLB as early as April of 2018, and I cannot possibly imagine a scenario where he's not in the bigs by 2018's end. Works low in the zone and uses every scrap of the plate, and if Tyler Flowers has anything to do with it, he'll use bits right outside the plate as well. With 3 plus pitches in his arsenal, this dude's the real deal. While he might not have the front-line arsenal of Gohara, his control could put him in the conversation.

3. Kolby Allard- At 19, the Braves might be pumping the brakes on this young stud as he's run into his first professional stretch where he hasn't dominated. Like Soroka, Allard has 3 plus-pitches and can run a FB up to 97, but normally ranges from 91-94. The fastball has lots of movement and his curve has different levels of break depending on the velocity. He's in AA and I think he stays there the rest of this year and maybe part of 2018. From there, it's anyone's guess, but I think his MLB debut happens sometime in 2019.

4. Touki Toussaint- If you were like me (don't be like me) you rated Touki lower on the prospect chart due to an inflated ERA that's been present his entire MiLB career. Like I said, don't be me and listen to others when they say Touki was, and still is, raw, but he is really coming around these last 4-5 starts. Like Gohara, if everything goes right, oh boy! Hold on to your seat because he's going to rocket. For now, his 95 MPH fastball and ridiculous curveball will make its home in Pearl, MS where he'll make foes look like fools. My bet is he'd be on the Allard track.

5. Kyle Wright- Could the Braves push Wright to MLB next year? You bet your butt they could...but I wouldn't expect it. Like Dansby, Wright is a polished pitcher that's got the frame and arsenal to be great. If the Braves need a push from a pitcher late in 2018, Wright could be that guy. However, 2019 seems more realistic and that's only 1.5 years in the Minors, a little more than Dansby.

Calm after the Storm? HECK NO!!! RED FLAG COMING IN!!!!

This group could very well become a named storm, let's call it Hurricane Arm Overload, and that would put them into DOUBLE RED FLAG status if they continue to develop, but for now, let's just appreciate them for kicking butt in the system. Most of these guys are early in their development and while most players they're facing off against are older, they're still in Low-A or below (or injured) and I've learned valuable lessons about projecting guys as "stars" when they're still in the lower minors (or injured). Watch closely to this group's development when they get to Double-A and beyond. I most definitely have high hopes.

1. Ian Anderson- Only 19 years old, Braves 1st round pick from 2016 is sitting 'em down at Low-A and has a body to grow into. Can already run it up to 97, and has the projections to be a #2-3 guy.

2. Joey Wentz- Also only 19, and has been a personal favorite of mine since the draft (and I have articles to prove it!), I think he's going to be really special. Putting up best numbers in the system at Low-A with a mid-90s peak fastball, and a change up and curve that's reportedly getting better every outing. The athleticism is the game-changer here and Wentz was a serious 2-way star coming out of high school and that should really pay dividends on the mound. Early projections show his ceiling as a mid-rotation pitcher.

3. Bryse Wilson- The surprise of the system thus far, and forgive me if I repeat things, but Bryse is also 19 years of age. Only surpassed by Wentz, Bryse is sporting a 2.36 ERA with a great K-rate, low-BB rate, and a knack for controlling the zone. The knock on him when drafted was that scouts thought he was destined for the bullpen, but man oh man he's proving he can play up. Working off of his fastball that sits the mid-90s, Bryse has a curve/slurve that's very effective and a change-up that is developing with every outing. Early projections show him as a mid-to-back end rotation pitcher.

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4. Kyle Muller- Pitching at Danville, Muller seems to be a bit behind in development from the 3 above, but it'd only take 2-3 dominant performances for him to be right in the mix. Muller most definitely has one of the more suitable frames for longevity as he's coming in at 6'6 225. Fastball sits at 92-93 but many reports I saw right after the draft had it pushing 95. I think we will see added velo to his fastball before it's said and done and he's likely toned it down to work on command which is very common for pitchers in the Braves system. Like Wentz, Muller is known for his athleticism and that should help his cause on the mound. A 3 pitch arsenal that's being fine tuned and has a 4th pitch that he's playing around with for now, Muller has the makeup to become an overnight surprise. Was in extended ST for a while nursing an ailment so I wouldn't doubt if he's up in Low-A by the end of the season when mass promotions will once again pour over the southeast like a summer thunderstorm.

5. Patrick Weigel- There's no doubt that Weigel would be in the Double Red Flag group above had it not been for his season-ending Tommy-John surgery at June's end. Like Muller, Weigel has a frame for eating innings if his arm can agree with his body post-surgery. Weigel works off of his fastball which sits 95ish and moves up to 100 on occasions. Weigel was promoted to AAA after 7 dominant starts in AA and ran into some hiccups. However, it was reported that his velo took a nosedive in the last 2-3 starts before being pulled on June 18th after only 3.1 innings.  Due to the Braves extreme caution on Tommy John victims, Weigel likely won't see action again until 2019 or at earliest Winter Ball in 2018 which, in turns, begs the question, "Does Weigel remain a starter?" The short answer for me is yes, but I don't think that'll be his role in MLB. If he can stay healthy, I think Weigel becomes a back-end bullpen threat where he's asked to come in and let it fly. Focusing on 2 dominant pitches in his fastball and curveball and keeping the 3rd (changeup) in his back pocket to keep hitters honest, Weigel could be a serious force for years.

WELL, that's all folks!  Don't fret when looking at the current fruits of the Braves pitching prospects that have peaked into the bigs this year. Dominance is coming and we are going to have wave after wave after wave for years to come.

Go BRAVES!!!

How are the guys the Braves got rid of are doing?

Since the end of the 2016 season, the Braves have finalized nine trades while losing a few players via waivers. With roughly half of the season already finished, I wanted to look back at the players the team gave up and how they are doing in their new surroundings. Do the Braves miss them or do they miss the Braves more?

November 2, 2016
Ryan Weber selected by the Seattle Mariners off waivers.

-Before the 2016 World Series ended later that night, the Braves lost a right-hander who had made 21 appearances and seven starts with them over the previous two seasons. Weber was always a non-prospect - a guy with AAAA stuff and more guts than talent. He opened this year with 31.2 dominant frames in Triple-A for Tacoma before earning a callup. He was doing alright (3 H, 1 ER) through 3.2 innings, but left the game with a biceps injury. Actually, to be more specific, a "stretch of the musculocutaneous nerve." That sounds painful. He's been sidelined for a month-and-a-half and I have yet to see word on a return.

A. Jackson | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

November 28, 2016
Traded Max Povse and Robert Whalen to the Seattle Mariners. Received a player to be named later and Alex Jackson (minors). The Seattle Mariners sent Tyler Pike (minors) (December 9, 2016) to the Atlanta Braves to complete the trade.

-The Mariners are a common theme in this little update. Povse returned to Double-A to begin this season after eleven solid starts in the Southern League. He was less impressive in the Texas League, though, and his walks were "sky-high" relative to his usual pinpoint location. After 39 innings (he missed nearly a month on the DL), Povse was brought to the majors two weeks ago. His first outing out of the pen was horrid, but he threw two scoreless innings his last time out against the Angels. Meanwhile, Whalen, who made five starts with the big league club last year, has been a bag of awful this season. In 48.1 innings in the hard-hitting PCL, he has a 6.33 ERA. In five of his nine starts, he's given up at least four earned runs. Mixed in there are two spot appearances in the majors, including a start. He was dinged up for five runs in a late May loss to the Red Sox and went two scoreless innings in mid-June out of the pen against the Rangers. He's back in Triple-A and will look to end a streak of five consecutive starts with allowing at least one homerun the next time out.

December 1, 2016
Traded Luke Dykstra (minors), Chris Ellis (minors) and John Gant to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Jaime Garcia.

-Some bemoaned the loss of Dykstra despite the fact that Dykstra found a way to hit over .300 last year in more than 340 PA with a sub-.700 OPS and less than ten steals. I mention all of that because since 1901, only five people were able to do that in the majors and the last time it happened was 1943 with Doc Cramer. This season, Dykstra has been terrible for Palm Beach in the Florida State League, playing against many of his former teammates on the Fire Frogs. Ellis, who spent only one year in the organization after coming over with Sean Newcomb in the Andrelton Simmons trade, has been woeful as well while splitting time between Memphis and Springfield. His ERA is only under 7.00 because his work at Springfield is less-awful. John Gant opened the year on the DL and has only made eight appearances on the year. In seven starts in Memphis, he's been pretty decent. Not great, but compared to the other guys the Cardinals got for Garcia, Gant's been amazing. He's also appeared once out of the bullpen for the Cardinals. he gave up two solo homers in 3.1 ING.

December 8, 2016
Traded Brady Feigl (minors) and Tyrell Jenkins to the Texas Rangers. Received Luke Jackson.

-A Spring Training arm that nearly made the team in 2015 before needing Tommy John surgery, Feigl made six appearances last year in the rookie leagues as part of his rehab. This season, he has pitched 22 times - mostly in the Carolina League - with mixed success. The strikeout numbers are solid and the control is magnificent, but when he's not missing bats, players are finding holes. He's also been miserable once promoted to Frisco to begin June. Jenkins didn't last long in the Rangers' system. A few weeks later, they lost him on waivers to the Reds and he spent about as much time in their system before the Padres got him off waivers. One of last year's fan favorites has been just bad with El Paso in the PCL. He gave up 14 homers last year between Triple-A and the majors. He's surrendered 16 already this year in just as many starts. His strikeout-to-walk rate is nearly 1.

January 11, 2017
Traded Shae Simmons and Mallex Smith to the Seattle Mariners. Received Thomas Burrows (minors) and Luiz Gohara (minors).

-Losing Simmons made me sad as I had been a quick fan of his in 2014. He made it back to the majors for seven games last year and was a potential x-factor for this year's bullpen before the trade. However, the prospect of acquiring Gohara was too great. Unfortunately, Simmons has been DL'd the whole season with a right flexor strain. The last I heard, he was throwing again, but has yet to start a rehab assignment and likely won't be in the mix until late July at the earliest. Smith spent a few hours in the Mariners' system before being packaged in a deal for Tampa's Drew Smyly. He's spent much of the year in the minors or on the DL, but when he's been in the majors, Smith has been pretty successful. With Kevin Kiermaier out for much of the foreseeable future, center field belongs to Smith, who's OBP is roughly 70 points higher than it was last year with the Braves. His stolen base percentage continues to need work (9-of-13), but he's been a nice fit in Tampa and one of the few ex-Braves on this list to look better than he did with the Braves.

January 13, 2017
Traded player to be named or cash to the Los Angeles Dodgers. Received Micah Johnson.

-The real winner of this deal was the Braves' fans who now know who Johnson is and follow him on Twitter.

January 26, 2017
Tuffy Gosewisch selected by the Seattle Mariners off waivers.

-Jesus, the Mariners love ex-Braves - even those that never suit up for Atlanta. Earlier in the offseason, Gosewisch had been picked up off waivers from the D'Backs to compete with Anthony Recker. That didn't happen as the Braves signed Kurt Suzuki and DFA'd Gosewisch. He's been around his career norms in 41 games in Triple-A for the Mariners. He also spent a few weeks in the majors where he went just 2-for-28 with 14 K's. Ouchie.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

February 12, 2017
Traded Carlos Portuondo (minors) and Andrew McKirahan to the Cincinnati Reds. Received Brandon Phillips.

-Not included here was the $13M the Reds sent to pay for Phillips contract, leaving the Braves on the hook for just a million bucks. McKirahan was a former Rule 5 pick who spent too much of his rookie season on the inactive list after being suspended for PED. He then spent 2016 on the mend after a second Tommy John surgery. He has yet to pitch this season and has spent some of his time on Twitter railing against vaccines. As for Portuondo, a Cuban-born right-hander, he pitched once and was released. Man, the Reds really wanted to get rid of Brandon Phillips.

March 6, 2017
Christian Walker selected by the Cincinnati Reds off waivers.

-The Braves were the second-of-four teams to get a look at Walker this spring. He started with the Orioles, the team that drafted him and originally promoted him to the majors in both 2014 and 2015. In late February, the Braves claimed him only to lose him two weeks later to the Reds. In late March, he was again on the move - this time to the Diamondbacks. He's bashed the PCL since with a slugging percentage well over .550. He's played mostly first, though he made a cameo at third and also logged a bit of time in left field. Because of how bad the Braves' bench has been - especially early - this one kind of hurts.

April 24, 2017
Traded David Hernandez to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Received player to be named or cash.

-You don't want to read about this. David Hernandez has been excellent for the Angels. Absolutely filthy. He's picked up over a K an inning, walked nearly nobody, and his FIP is absurdly in the 1.50-range. He's not this good, but he's definitely pitching like he is and the Braves are wondering why they just didn't bring him to the majors after all.

April 27, 2017
Chase d'Arnaud selected by the Boston Red Sox off waivers.

-There were people who were upset about this. I like to call these people the ones who are easily convinced by a month of success. D'Arnaud looked good briefly last year, but ended with a .245/.317/.335 split. His biggest value came from being able to play multiple positions and swipe a few bases. The Braves already had Emilio Bonifacio for that! (Too soon?) Cutting d'Arnaud, in late April, the utility player landed in Boston. After a month in their organization, he was waived and went to the Padres. He's been straight up awful with the bat and has played a little too often at shortstop, but when you're the Padres and you have Erick Aybar, that's to be expected.

May 8, 2017
Traded Kevin Chapman and cash to the Minnesota Twins. Received Danny Santana.

-Santana has had a few hits here-and-there but he's basically been the same guy who disappointed with the Twins last year. Meanwhile, Chapman, who the Braves added on waivers near the end of spring training, spent about a month in the Twins' organization for their International League club in Rochester. He gave up seven earned runs in 11.1 ING, which was actually an improvement over his time with Gwinnett. He was released a little more than a month after the trade.

May 20, 2017
Purchased Enrique Burgos from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Traded Juan Yepez (minors) to the St. Louis Cardinals. Received Matt Adams and cash.

-Burgos has been lights-out with Gwinnett and Adams hasn't been so bad either, but this article is about the players who the Braves gave up. Yepez hit .275/.309/.387 with a homer over 36 games with Rome before the trade. He left the SALLY League and landed in the Midwest League with Peoria. The two leagues are nearly identical in offensive production and while Dozer Park is a bit more homer-friendly than State Mutual Stadium, it's not exactly a big homerun park. Still, Yepez has bashed five homers since the trade, one fewer than he hit during 121 games in the Braves' organization. That said, he's still struggled to the tune of a .298 OBP.

Overall, outside of Mallex Smith - who doesn't have a place in Atlanta - and David Hernandez (sniff), the Braves haven't seen much success this season by the players they traded or waived. Some of that is luck, but a good deal of it is talent evaluation and coaching - something the Braves excel with at the minor league level.

Ender Inciarte Makes Atlanta his Long-Term Home

Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr (Original version)
UCinternational (Crop) (CC 2.0) via Wikipedia Commons

Two days before Christmas, Ender Inciarte received a nice Christmas present. Or, maybe it was the other way around? Maybe Mom was right when she told me that giving a gift was a present in its own right.

The Braves and their new center fielder agreed upon a five-year contract worth at least $30.525 million. A sixth season option would increase the overall value of the deal to $38.5 million. Inciarte was eligible for arbitration for the first time this offseason and as a Super 2 player, he would have been arbitration-eligible for three more years. In essence, the Braves bought out at least one of his free agent years and if they exercise his option, they will have the defensive wonder through his Age-31 season.

While this contract cannot possibly be reasonably argued against, there are questions about Inciarte that remain valid despite a solid first year in Atlanta. Notably, he lacks any real defining skill offensively. While this is completely true, Inciarte makes the most of his skillset and has shown improvement as he's matured into a more seasoned veteran. Last year, he increased his walk rate 3% upon the previous year. He improved his contact rate while doing it, which meant he simply swung the bat less - a sign of a better eye. He lowered his groundball rate and increased his line drive percentage. That leads to more hits.

However, no matter what Inciarte does at the plate, in a good year, he'll merely rise to above average with the bat when league and park factors are weighed. What earned him a contract was his superb base running and defense. First, let's go over the base running because his defense is already well renowned.

Base running is one of those things that can be difficult to quantify and even harder to know how to quantify. Our old method was limited to stolen base numbers. If Player A was successful in, say, 80% of his stolen base attempts, he was a good base runner. However, now, we can better judge base running through metrics like BsR and some of the other numbers we can find at Baseball-Reference.

For instance, B-R keeps track of how many times a runner took the extra base. In his two years with the Diamondbacks, Inciarte advanced an extra base 29% and 40% of the time. The latter is roughly the major league average. In his first season with the Braves, 52% of the time, he took an extra base by going to first-to-third on a single or first-to-home on a double. While not in the same company as some of the elite speedsters and base runners in the game, it was a solid improvement for Inciarte. He was also successful in 70% of his stolen base attempts, which is close to league average.

Fangraphs paints an even rosier picture of Inciarte's base running prowess. With a 4.3 grade, Inciarte finished 2016 as the 21st best base runner in baseball. When you take into account the last two seasons, Inciarte moves up a bit to 16th best with a 7.6 overall grade. To put that into perspective for Braves fans, one guy we loved to watch on the base paths was Jason Heyward. Over the last two years, Heyward has a grade of 9.0 - ninth in baseball.

When it comes to defense, Inciarte is one of the five-best center fielders in baseball and you might be able to lower that number to three or four-best. Unfortunately, because he played a lot of left and right with the D'Backs, he doesn't rank very highly when you judge multiple seasons in regards to center fielder numbers. However, in the context of 2016, there is Kevin Pillar, Billy Hamilton, Inciarte, and a little bit of space before Jackie Bradley Jr. While he did play some left field and missed time with an injury, Inciarte still finished third in UZR/150, tied for second in rPM (Plus Minus Runs Saved), fourth in rARM (Outfield Arm Runs Saved), and third in DRS. Inside Edge ranks him a bit below Pillar and Hamilton as far as range goes and he doesn't make many remote or unlikely players, but Inciarte is as good as it gets when it comes to borderline, likely, and almost certain plays.

Here is a couple of things to keep in mind. What does Inciarte's contract extension mean for Mallex Smith? Probably not good things. To play both Inciarte and Smith, the Braves would be committing to two positions with very little pop. Remember that Ozzie Albies, the presumptive long-term option at second base, also lacks very much power. That would mean that on any given day, nearly half of the lineup (once you add the pitcher) would be full of guys who may never reach double figure homerun totals. On the flipside, with a fairly team-friendly contract, Inciarte becomes an even better trade asset. Teams will already be able to know how much Inciarte will be paid through what we can assume is the prime of his career. One could also suggest that the Braves do not grade Smith as highly as many fans do and think of him more as a fourth outfielder/platoon option than a full-time guy.

No matter how this plays out, this contract means two things to me. One, the John Hart-led contract extension frenzy of 2013-14 might be back on. During that offseason, the Braves signed Julio Teheran, Freddie Freeman, Chris Johnson, and Craig Kimbrel to long-term extensions. The latter two would be later dismissed, but Teheran and Freeman have blossomed into cornerstones. While Inciarte was the obvious choice for a contract extension this offseason, could we be that far away from considering Dansby Swanson a candidate for a contract extension? If Mike Foltynewicz or Matt Wisler take a monster step forward in 2017, could they be in line for an extension? Hart kept the young nucleus of the Indians together this way once before.

Second, this contract makes the Shelby Miller deal last winter look even better. While I have my concerns about Aaron Blair, the Braves have team control of Inciarte and Swanson through the 2022 season. If Blair figures it out, even better. Miller, along with Tyrell Jenkins, were once the early foundation of a future Braves winner. They were since turned into an even better foundation for a future Braves winner that has already developed into a pair of new franchise cornerstones to go with Teheran and Freeman.

All in all, I didn't expect a contract extension this winter, but I'm glad to see it. Inciarte is a great player to have around at a premium position. You just don't find 3+ fWAR guys on five year deals worth a shade more than $30 million anymore.

Braves Wheel and Deal on Final Day of Winter Meetings

The final day of the Winter Meetings saw plenty of players leaving and even some coming to Atlanta. Let's recap the moves.

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Atlanta Braves release Williams Perez

The day got started with the news that the Braves were cutting Perez to open up a spot on their 40-man roster that would soon be used for a Rule 5 selection. Perez, a right-handed groundball machine, had came on the scene with a breakout 2015 in which he maintained a 2.91 ERA and 3.29 FIP at Double-A Mississippi. He never was a strikeout pitcher, but showed great command of the strikezone and a penchant for getting batters to smack the ball into the ground for easy outs.

Over the last two seasons, he has appeared 34 times in the majors with all but three as a starter. What we find out was about what we thought we knew when he was coming up. While capable of getting grounders, Williams lacked stuff and in the major leagues, it's almost impossible to get by as a right-handed soft tosser without having a weapon resembling a plus pitch to choose from. Just to add on, of all total pitches that Williams threw, a criminally low 5.9% became swinging strikes. The average is about 10%. Hitters bashed him and he wore his 4.85 FIP/4.75 xFIP deservingly. He's not bad Quad-A depth, but his ceiling was just too low for the Braves to keep him when they could re-purpose that roster spot on a higher ceiling option.

The Atlanta Braves select RHP Armando Rivero from the Chicago Cubs

Last week, I reviewed eight players I liked coming into the Rule 5 Draft. Only two were selected and the Braves' option wasn't on my radar. That said, I'm blogging in my boxers and they have a wealth of scouting reports so I'm confident they made a better selection than me. Rivero was a big signing by the Chicago Cubs in 2013 out of Cuba. Expected to be a quick riser through the minor leagues, Rivero has been on the cusp of the majors in each of the last two seasons. Overall, his minor league numbers are pretty studly with 303 K's in 220 ING (12.4 K/9). He can battle control issues and gives up a few too many homers. Unlike many Rule 5 picks, Rivero is up there in age and will turn 29 on the first day of February.

Rivero has mixed reports on his fastball velocity ranging from low 90's to the mid-90's. His best pitch when he was a star reliever in Cuba was his cutter. He also has a breaking ball that, had he been able to develop it into a plus pitch, might have pushed the Cubs to try him as a starter. That said, I've read that the pitch (which some call a curve while others say is a slider) can be a strikeout pitch, but lacks consistency. The bullpen is shaping up to have a lot of competition, but Rivero's Rule 5 status might help him claim a spot if not outshined by other options.

For more on Rivero - especially his defection from Cuba - read this article from last July from The Des Moines Register. New Braves minor leaguer David Freitas also has a quote in the article and I highly recommend it.

Minor League Portion of Rule 5 Draft Review

And then, there was the minor league portion of the Rule 5. While the Braves didn't lose a player in the major league portion while adding Rivero, they lost three guys in the minor league section along with gaining one. These players do not have to be offered back to their previous team if not kept in Triple-A.

The Braves selected Cesilio Pimentel from the Pirates in the First Round as they continue to absolutely crush the name competition. Signed out of the Dominican Republic, the lefty made his professional debut in 2011 and has slowly climbed the ladder since then. Last year, at 23, he pitched for West Virginia in the Sally League mostly in long relief. He's continued to show good control and adequate strikeout numbers, but really needs to be challenged at some point as he was just too old for the South Atlantic League. While he'll go to the Triple-A roster, my bet is that he'll start next season in Double-A.

The Second Round saw the Braves lose two players before a third went in the next and last round. First, left-hander Brian Moran went to the Orioles. He's been around for awhile now since the Mariners selected him out of UNC-Chapel Hill in 2009. He's also a veteran of the Rule 5 pick as he was picked in 2013 by the Angels, but missed the season with Tommy John surgery and was ultimately returned to the Mariners. He would pitch one more season with the M's before being selected last year as a minor league Rule 5 pick by the Indians. He was released at the end of spring training and played some in independent ball before the Braves added him last August for the stretch run with Gwinnett. He has good career numbers, but they don't really stand out, either.

Three picks later, the Rangers picked Zachary Bird. The righty had been acquired along with *gulp* Hector Olivera in 2015 from the Dodgers. He was praised for his athleticism and reports were thathe had a big arm that and some high-celing potential. However, last year, he looked completely lost in the Carolina League. Despite that, there was some rumblings that Bird might be selected in the major league portion if the Braves didn't protect him. That was probably due to the fact that his Dodgers pre-trade hype is still attached to him according to MLB Pipeline as very few - if any - experts had Bird as a Top 30 prospect for the Braves outside MLB's official prospect guys. Bird has a shot to be something for the Rangers, but not shocked the Braves didn't try to protect him.

The final selection of the day came with Texas again raided the Braves' system for righty Fernando Miranda. In 2015, he made a cameo in my Random Prospect Sunday series. He spent last season on loan to the Mexican League where he had decent K numbers, but not a lot else. Miranda had only pitched 78 innings over three seasons before 2016 in the Braves' system. This sentence might sum on the choice of Miranda - you didn't know the Braves had him and there was good reason for that.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Braves Trade Tyrell Jenkins and Brady Feigl, Take Chance on Luke Jackson

This is one of those trades where all you can say is "Uh, alright."

It wasn't hard to like Jenkins. He had an engaging personality on social media, was one of the first real young pieces the Braves acquired after axing Frank Wren, and had posted some pretty decent numbers over two years. The problem with Jenkins was pretty simple. While the Braves were able to squeeze the two healthiest seasons of his career, his metrics never climbed out of the "Meh" range. His K/9 fell under 6 an inning, his control never wavered far from 4 walks per nine, and while he always induced a lot of grounders, his stats never seemed to match the hype.

Like Zach Bird, Jenkins is an athletic righty who needed refinement. So much so that last year, the Braves pushed Jenkins to the pen. But whereas Bird headed south this season, Jenkins did enough to earn a callup to the majors. He walked more batters than he struck out and like a player the Braves cut earlier that day, Williams Perez, Jenkins couldn't get hitters to swing-and-miss. Since Jenkins has never displayed excellent control, that led to major league hitters elevating his pitches and sending them to the bleachers for souvenirs way too often.

That's not to say that Jenkins is a lost cause. Only that he had plateaued and was not improving. With better prospects reaching Triple-A or knocking on the door, Jenkins was expendable.

Feigl was a fun story during the 2015 spring training as a non-drafted free agent who Gene Karns, who had found Brandon Beachy, signed. Feigl pitched well in 2014 and with no lefties stepping forward in the spring of 2015, Feigl was beginning to look like a possibility to break camp in the majors before being a late cut. Soon after, he complained of soreness and later would need Tommy John. He missed almost all of the last two seasons before a late return to three rehab games in the Gulf Coast League last summer. I had big hopes for Feigl before his injury and for more on his strange path to nearly making the Braves in 2015, read this article.

As for the guy the Braves got, Luke Jackson heads to Atlanta. Selected five picks before Jenkins in the 2010 draft, Jackson has shown some strikeout ability in the minors that only got better after his 2015 move to the bullpen. It's the rest of his game that the Braves coaches will look to refine. His delivery occasionally comes out of whack, his breaking pitches aren't always thrown for strikes, and he can be a bit homer prone despite a real weapon in his fastball.

Much like how Jenkins had plateaued as a Braves prospect, it appears that Jackson has reached a level where he's just not getting any better pitching for the Rangers' organization. The Braves will work with him on getting his breaking pitch(es?) thrown for strikes and more consistency on the mound, which should make him better able to handle the strikezone. Jackson is armed with a 95-97 mph fastball that will buy him long looks with the Braves.

This deal can be summed up in one word: Ceiling. As we saw with the Alex Jackson trade (and many others before that), the Braves have no problem with dealing quantity for the highest ceiling in the trade. With 94-95 mph heat, electric stuff, and developing secondary options, Jackson represented the best bet to be more than just a bit player in the majors of the three players involved in this trade. Now, he has to prove it. Luckily for him, the Braves are building a who's who of pitching instructors and coaches.

I understand why some fans hated this trade. Part of that was overvaluing Jenkins, part of it was the underwhelming return. This trade needs time to allow the pieces to develop and mature before judging. That said, I like this aggressive front office that values ceiling over floor. This trade only reinforces that.

Braves Go Big, Sign Bartolo Colon

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA (#WorldSeries Game 1:
Bartolo Colon) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

One day after adding 42 year-old R.A. Dickey to their rotation, the Atlanta Braves signed 43 year-old Bartolo Colon. If both reach at least 20 starts in 2017, it will be the first time since 2007 that a team had two starters get the ball that many times to begin a game. It's only happened once for the Braves - 1981 with Phil Niekro and Gaylord Perry.

Of course, by now, you know the Colon story. A Cy Young winner in 2005, Colon's career took a sharp downward turn due to injuries and poor pitching. In 2011, he made a triumphant comeback as a competent starter for the Yankees and after two years with the A's, he returned to the National League for the first time since 2002 when he signed with the Mets. Three years and 588.2 innings later, Colon is on the move again - this time to help open SunTrust Field to the tune of $12.5 million. Oddly, that's a fairly good price for Colon.

The last player still active who played for the Expos, Colon is a fan favorite. One of baseball's best moments in 2016 - before a magical World Series - was Colon's first career homer against the Padres. Outside of that, he is one of baseball's worst hitters with a career .091 average and a strikeout in over half of his 302 plate appearances. Weighing at least 285 pounds, Colon looks more like he's playing in a charity game rather than getting paid to play baseball professionally, but he makes it work.

But how?

While the image of an old pitcher throwing all kinds of junk at the plate hoping something gets by the hitter might immediately flood your mind when you think about Colon, he's really not that guy. For Colon, it's less about what he's throwing and more about where he's throwing it.

His main pitch is a sinker. Of course, it's lost 3-5 mph in velocity over the last decade, but he still averages 87.8 mph and the 95% +/- confidence interval tell us that the average is about what you should expect most of the time. He also throws a four-seamer at about 90 mph. While he does throw three other pitches, 85-90% of the time, you are getting two variations of a fastball. Again, it's about location and not trick pitches with Colon.

His collection of pitches includes a rarely thrown cutter, a change-up he throws more often to lefties, and a slider he almost exclusively uses against righties. He used his slider a lot less last year (a decrease of about 4-5%). His two breaking balls both are in the low 80's while his cutter is a few mph slower than his sinker.

Have I mentioned it's about location for Colon? He's going to live on the outside corner and only go inside to show that he's willing to. When he's on, he'll get a lot of foul balls off the bat and grounders up the middle. When he's not, he'll get a lot of foul balls off the bat and grounders up the middle and more homeruns. Either way, he's not going to hurt himself via walks, not is he going to get strikeouts.

While durable, Colon's innings and pitches per game have both declined the last two seasons. After reaching 100 pitches 14 times in 2014, he's only done it 11 times since. He only had one game where he failed to throw 80 or more pitches in 2014. He's done that 15 times since. Basically, it's like having a better, older, more robust Chuck James.

But why?

That's the bigger question. Why Colon especially after already adding Dickey (along with bringing back Josh Collmenter?). Here's a few possible hypotheses.

First, the Braves really don't have a lot of faith in Matt Wisler, Aaron Blair, John Gant, Robert Whalen, and Tyrell Jenkins to be starters for them in 2017. These five pitchers combined to make 61 starts in 2016 for the Atlanta Braves. Now, they will battle Collmenter, other young starters looking to make a mark, and any other veteran the Braves bring in to join the rotation to open 2017. Atlanta feels that Colon gives them a better shot to compete now and the price was too good to pass up.

Second, the Braves feel another lean year is destined for 2017. They see the shallow free agent market, the unreasonable asking prices in trades, and the slow development of many prospects as reasons to not commit to long-term deals that could become untradeable albatrosses. Instead, they would rather roll the dice with one-year veterans who, as we all know, they can trade later to turn into future assets (such as the aforementioned Gant and Whalen).

Third, they need depth for when they trade Julio Teheran. I don't think this is likely, but let's run with this idea. The Braves are attached to Chris Archer in trade talks. Apparently, they asked about him and tried to gauge the Rays' asking price. What if that was research to see what the asking price might be for Teheran? It's a shallow free agent market (that may have been mentioned). Why not try to cash in an asset at above market value to take advantage?

Fourth, they really enjoy watching Colon bat. I really didn't have another hypothesis, but I didn't want to end on an odd number.

Whatever the case, the Braves should avoid the desperate search for random arms to help fill out the rotation in case of injury considering the depth they now have. That alone should make them a better squad in 2017.

Sticking to the Plan: Braves Add R.A. Dickey

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original) [CC By 2.0], via Flickr

In a case of an early free agency rumor becoming true, the Atlanta Braves have signed pitcher R.A. Dickey to a contract for 2017. According to Jon Heyman, he'll receive at least $8M (total includes $500K buyout) with a chance to earn an additional $7.5 million if his option for 2018 is exercised.

Let's take a look at what the Braves got.

Profiling Dickey

I don't know if you are aware of this, but Dickey throws the knuckleball. In fact, he throws it about 88% of the time according to Brooks Baseball. Along with Steven Wright and Eddie Gamboa, he's one of three knucklers to pitch in the majors since the retirement of Tim Wakefield in 2011. All three had been in the AL East, but that is no longer the case now.

Before Dickey, nobody threw the knuckleball with such velocity. That said, Dickey has "lost" about three ticks in velocity over the last two years from an average of 75.3 mph in 2014 to 72.2mph this year. However, those averages are pretty much useless because Dickey throws two knuckleballs that are only charted as one. The fast one is the one that shocks hitters and observers as, on a good day, it can reach 80 mph. The slower one is comparable to the Bugs Bunny cartoon where a hitter can swing three times on one pitch. Okay, maybe not that slow, but the two knucklers have about, on average, a 5-to-10 mph difference.

Dickey throws three other pitches, but last year seemed to relegate himself to a two-pitch pitcher. His sinker, which averaged 83 mph, was utilized 9.2% of the time. That represents an increase of double the usage from 2015. He rarely went to his fourseamer, which he adopted in 2012, nor his changeup - though that's nothing new. Now, here's the thing. Being a two-pitch pitcher is more in line with his Mets' days. Back then, he actually used his sinker much more (around a quarter of the time). Once he went to Toronto, his knuckleball usage went through the roof.

That's one thing the Braves may attempt to change once he arrives in camp in February. Dickey will also enjoy a move away from the homer-happy stadiums of the AL East where three of the five home parks in the division are extreme hitter paradises. That's especially true of his former home in Toronto. Since joining the Jays, Dickey had a HR/9 of 1.45 at home versus 1.02 on the road. While it's unknown how SunTrust Park will play, of the dozen current stadium in baseball that parkfactors.com gives a rating of 105+ - which classifies it as a hitter's park - only one is the NL East. In an unbalanced schedule, that should aid with Dickey's homerun numbers. He surrendered between 25 and 35 homeruns as a Blue Jay and between 1.05 and 1.49 HR/9. That mark should fall with his return to the NL.

That would also help his FIP/xFIP numbers. During his Blue Jays days, his best performance in those metrics was 4.32/4.14 in 2014. They looked noticeably worse over the last two years as his strikeouts fell. On the subject of K's, it's important to point out that he rebounded there last year (3% climb) and percentage-wise, he's just about 1.5% below where he was in 2014. Of bigger concern was that Dickey's walk numbers climbed sharply as a Blue Jay to a seven-year high of 8.7% last year. Perhaps less knucklers will help with that.

It's also important to not get too attached to the home/road splits. I gave you the homerun difference earlier, but from a FIP/xFIP standpoint, it's less stark. At home with the Blue Jays, Dickey had a combo split of 4.78/4.30. On the road, it was 4.36/4.59. While the FIP does keep the big change, the xFIP doesn't. That's because xFIP normalizes the homeruns surrendered. I'm pointing out this because if you think a return to the NL is just going to fix Dickey right up, you might be very disappointed. It's not to say Dickey won't be improved by a switch of leagues, but he's also not the guy who the Mets traded after 2012 anymore either.

How Dickey Fits

Dickey does do one thing the Braves are searching for. He takes the mound every fifth day. Until last year when he finished 31.1 innings short, the right-hander had pitched at least 208.2 innings every year since 2011. He would have at least gotten closer to 200 innings in 2016, but the Jays removed him from the rotation for the September stretch run. Since the Braves have had two pitchers reach 170 innings the last two seasons, an addition like Dickey will bring some calm to the staff and help them to avoid using AAAA depth guys like Lucas Harrell and Ryan Weber so frequently.

The knuckleballer also buys the Braves some time. Sean Newcomb is coming. So is Max Fried. As is Max Povse, Lucas Sims, and others. Matt Wisler, Tyrell Jenkins, John Gant, Robert Whalen, and more are already here. But the Braves don't want to just hand them spots. They want them to earn their spot like Mike Foltynewicz has. In the mean time, a veteran like Dickey gives them an option and let's not ignore that Dickey, for all his faults, gave the Jays over 800 innings and 6.4 fWAR the last four seasons. Only one pitcher has done either for the Braves. To be fair, Julio Teheran was 4.2 innings short of doing both.

It is unlikely Dickey will be the last starter the Braves add this winter. From the start, the idea was a guy like Dickey who will provide a short-term boost and help the Braves be better in 2017 while the young guns mature. Meanwhile, the Braves will seek another starter to stick around beyond 2017. Recently, I profiled Jason Hammel as a possibility. Regardless of what happens, the Braves do not want to run out of options like they did in 2016. Adding a guy like Dickey will help with that.

It's not a sexy signing. You'll probably have to remind yourself the Braves added Dickey by the time pitchers and catchers report. But it's a good signing that helps the Braves do what they have stated is their goal for 2017 - to be better.

2016 Player Reviews: Jason Hursh, Ender Inciarte, Tyrell Jenkins

With today's three in the bank, I am still not even half-way through this series, but progress is progress, right? There are a lot of players still in the mix for hypothetical spots on the 2017 roster, though as we shift toward the offseason and a plethora of moves the Braves make to try to get better next year, open slots on next year's roster will be harder to come by. Today's trio has one definite member of next year's roster in the mix - provided he's not traded. Two others could battle for a bullpen spot.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

By Tate Nations (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

 Jason Hursh, RHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: For the first time in his career, Hursh did not get a starting assignment during the season. His move to the pen actually began in 2015 when he was shifted from the starting rotation after struggling badly during a second run in Mississippi. Overall, there is not much of a difference between Hursh the Starter and Hursh the Reliever except for one thing. He induced a ridiculous amount of groundballs when coming out of the pen. He's always been a groundball pitcher, but he went from a 1.6 groundball/flyball rate to 2.5 this season. According to this article from Fangraphs, that's comparable to a 55%-60% rate. Somewhere, Bobby Cox just had dreams of Kevin Gryboski. Hursh got a look in the bigs in August, though the results were pretty ugly (in a extra-petite sample size). He finished up the season with Gwinnett with mixed results.

2017 Projection: I kid about the Gryboski comparison, but Hursh is that kind of pitcher that a manager might be tempted to utilize in "rally-killing" situations. The problem with that idea is that Hursh has very little margin for error. He won't get many strikeouts (5.5-6.5 K/9) and isn't pinpoint enough with his control to make that work for him. Hursh could provide better value to the Braves if a team sees more in him than the Braves and is willing to take Hursh in a trade. If he returns in 2017, he'll be part of a large group of pitchers trying to get a look in the spring. A trip to Gwinnett seems most likely if he's not dealt beforehand.

Ender Inciarte, OF, 26 years-old

2016 Review: It was the tale of two different seasons for Inciarte. Through his first 56 games (which includes a trip to the DL), Inciarte was hitting an abysmal .226/.293/.304. He had been relegated to the bottom of the order and it looked like it would be a lost year for the former D'Back. Instead, Inciarte righted the ship beginning on July 8. Over his final 75 games, he slashed .338/.392/.436. Until the last weekend, he didn't go back-to-back games without a hit. Back in the leadoff spot, Inciarte was integral to the offense's resurgence in the second half. While his bat failed to impress early, his defense was a full-season marvel. Briefly, he was utilized in left field, but quickly, Brian Snitker realized that was a waste of Inciarte's impressive talents. He finished the season with 13 DRS, the third best total in the majors. For the first time since Michael Bourn left via free agency after 2012, the Braves had a plus-plus defender in center field.

2017 Projection: Let's be clear...the Inciarte of the final 75 games is not a true reflection of his skill level, but a regression to the mean. We have two extreme samples of Inciarte in 2016 and the overall performance level is closer to the final numbers (.291/.351/.381) than either of the extremes. That stat line isn't too far removed from his 2015 campaign with the D'Backs. He did show some improvement with a slight climb in walk rate to nearly 8% after hovering around 5% with Arizona. What is more impressive is the improvement against lefthanders. While it deserves to be mentioned that his .355 BABIP against lefties indicates an artificially high triple slash, Inciarte still reached .319/.365/.384 - a far cry from the .288 OBP he had against southpaws before coming to Atlanta. It would be easy to suggest - especially with Mallex Smith also in the fold - that the Braves could shop Inciarte this winter. Certainly, they could, but they shouldn't sell him short. He now has 381 major league games under his belt and a 9.5 fWAR to show for it. While his numbers may never wow you, his overall value to a team is easy to see and difficult to replicate.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, 24 years-old

2016 Review: Another mixed bag, Jenkins made it to the majors this year nearly six years after being selected the 50th overall pick of the 2010 draft. In addition, his callup came just a few weeks after Jenkins was shifted to the bullpen. At that time, I felt it was the right move as I am not a big believer that Jenkins' best value comes in the starting rotation. However, with the starting staff's depth issues in 2016, the Braves moved Jenkins into the starting rotation to make his first big league start on July 6. He would make seven more starts through August 20. Jenkins had a nice run in there (3 starts, 18 innings, two earned runs allowed), but his last two starts sent his ERA skyrocketing to 6.20 when he was demoted. He appeared twice in September in the majors and ended the year with 52 innings pitched, more walks than strikeouts, and nearly a dozen homers surrendered. His minor league numbers were better, but nothing to write home about outside of 2.47 ERA matched with a 3.61 FIP.

2017 Projection: When he was acquired by the Braves, Jenkins was a top pitching prospect in a system that didn't have many to speak of. Now, he's lost in the crowd. There has always been a bit of disconnect between the potential pitcher Jenkins could become and the pitcher Jenkins has a better chance of being. He won't be 25 until next July, but progression has been lacking to this point. He did reach 120 innings for back-to-back years - something he never did with the Cards. Nevertheless, Jenkins will need considerable refinement to be a serious starting pitcher possibility for the Braves moving forward. A best-case scenario could see Jenkins developing into a Derek Lowe-type where he induces a lot of grounders and logs innings. I feel a more likely option is that Jenkins grows into a Cristhian Martinez type of reliever who can give you a few innings in mostly low-leverage opportunities. While that role has some value, it's a far cry from the hope the Braves and their fans had when he was acquired from the Cardinals nearly two years ago.

See more player reviews.