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Showing posts with label JoshGraham. Show all posts
Showing posts with label JoshGraham. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 8, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: Ventura, Winkler, Wright, Ramos

What a busy, busy week for the Braves. Some of the moves, we reported on as they happened, but many more occurred as the Braves brought back a guy from the Mexican League, demoted a few underperforming pitchers, and continued to aggressively push rookie league players up a level.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover August 1 to August 7. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

Atlanta
We've reported on a number of these moves already so I won't go too far into them anymore. To read about Ozzie Albies' arrival in the bigs, you can click here and here. The latter link has information also on Lucas Sims, who came up with Albies last Tuesday. We also addressed the callup of Max Fried and the trade of Sean Rodriguez this week. Surprisingly, the week after the trading deadline was much more interesting than the week before.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Recalled: Jace Peterson...Peterson's Triple-A numbers took a nose dive over the recent few weeks, but he's probably happy to be back in the majors anyway. He's been bad this season with Atlanta - there's no doubting that. His BABIP is 30 points below where it should be and an 11% line-drive rate is criminally low. Whiffing on 11.5% of his swings aren't helping, either. It's tough being a bench guy in the majors - especially when you aren't used to it. Hard to play yourself out of a slump when you may only get five plate appearances in a week. Peterson might become Super 2 arbitration-eligible this season, which would make the Braves even less likely to bring him back in 2018 without a strong finish. He has added two pinch hits since being brought back, making him 3-for-3 in his last three pinch hit appearances counting the homer he hit before being sent down in mid-July.

Activated: Jason Motte...At some point, the Braves need to move on from Motte. I assume they are hoping he'll attract enough trade attention with a 3.81 ERA in 33 games and his veteran presence, but Motte's peripherals are not solid beyond his typical good control. While the 35-year-old (who the Rockies are paying nearly $5M to not pitch for them) takes up space on the major league roster, younger arms who could be in the mix for the 2018 roster are losing out.

Traded to Reds: Randy Ventura (#34)...When this trade was announced, many were quite upset about it. Like me in high school, they struggled to let a crush just slip away and not obsess over it. To be sure, Ventura is a prospect. He came on the scene back in 2017 when he hit .329/.421/.394 with 55 steals in 58 games. But that was in the DSL, which is notorious for making stars out of average players who crash-and-burn when brought stateside. Ventura hit .284 last year with a good OBP of .358 but stole just 15 bases. He's almost doubled that total this year with a .294 average before the trade but has also struck out a lot. And after a great start, he has tapered off considerably. Since May 15, Ventura had a .273/.317/.309 clip with 59 Ks in 267 PA (22%), which is not a good profile for a player with his tools. On the plus side, he's still very young (just turned 20) and the 29 steals along with the ability to play a decent center field have value. My thing, though, is the $1.25M the Braves received in international signing bonus space the Braves added is well worth what amounts to the seventh or eighth best outfield prospect in the system when it comes to raw potential. As Bennett Hipp tweeted, "This fan base is going to implode when actual good prospects are traded." Ventura was a nice prospect who demanded at-bats, but did he have a higher ceiling than those who he was blocking? Debateable, but I lean toward no.

Optioned: Jason Hursh (#42)...Starting with his cut from spring camp, Hursh has been optioned six times this year. His numbers aren't that great and considering the Braves' refusal to give him a longer look, Hursh is a prime candidate to be designated for assignment this winter to open up a spot on the 40-man roster. It's unfortunate because Hursh has improved notably over the 2015-16 version that looked like a wasted top pick, but Atlanta doesn't appear to have that much faith in Hursh.

Optioned: Micah Johnson...I understand why Johnson was optioned. Just not so sure I agree with it. He got three pinch-hit appearances while up with the Braves, who are making the conscious choice that Danny Santana is a better fit than Johnson. It makes sense. Santana plays more positions and is a switch-hitter. I don't have to like it even if it makes sense.

Optioned: Akeel Morris (#29)...Again, I get why Morris got the boot back to the minors - he had options and others didn't. I just disagree that sending Morris to Gwinnett is best for the Braves. I don't know if Morris will be in the long-term picture for the Braves, but I wouldn't mind finding out. The guy struck out 28% of opposing hitters in the majors. To me, that buys some time. Sure, his xFIP was really high and he allowed an insane amount of fly balls, but I'd like to see if those numbers normalize with more time. At the end of the day, this year's Braves aren't going to the playoffs. We know that. With Sims and Fried in the majors, seems like a good time to also have some of these more borderline Top 30 prospects up trying to help their cause for the 2018 roster.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
DL'd: Ian Krol...Ah, that tricky oblique strain. It landed Bartolo Colon on the DL in June and shut down Arodys Vizcaino last July. Odd that all three were struggling at the time. Krol has been just abysmal this season - a year after looking like a potential building block for the Braves. I'd like to say it was the increased cutter usage, but it's simply bad pitching. You can't go from pitching in the zone 47% of the time to 40% and not suffer as a result. Depending on how long he needs to recover from his oblique strain, Krol, who is arbitration-eligible, may have thrown his final pitch for the Braves.

Gwinnett
Signed and assigned to Gwinnett: Manny Barreda...Three days before Christmas back last winter, the Braves signed Barreda. He earned a mention in one of my offseason articles on minor league signings (the same one with Lane Adams). Another former Yankees arm, Barreda has also pitched in the Brewers organization and spent most of the last two years with Tijuana in the Mexican League on loan from first Milwaukee and now Atlanta. His debut with Gwinnett last week was his Triple-A debut and he struggled with his control, which is a recurring problem. When he's on, Barreda can be very good. Example: he threw a no-hitter last winter for Los Mochis. But he's not frequently on and that's why, in his eleventh season, he's finally made it to Triple-A. He works off a low 90's fastball with some breaking stuff that often decides just what kind of game it will be for him.

Activated: Kyle Kubitza...It's been a trying season for Kubitza, who was awful through two months of action but did hit .297/.394/.429 over the final 30 games before landing on the DL. No longer a prospect, Kubitza cycles between the corner infield and outfield positions along with some time at DH.

Rehab: Dan Winkler...Rehab 2.0. Winkler memorably (sadly) fractured his elbow last April after looking like he might be a surprise pitcher out of the pen for the Braves. He finally got back to action in mid-June, but his pitches lacked the Winkler stuff and movement that made the Braves spend a Rule 5 pick all the way back in 2014 on him. The Braves asked and were granted permission for an extended rehab stint and shut Winkler down for a month before he returned on Sunday and threw a two-strikeout inning out of the pen for Gwinnett. Winkler's one of those guys that the Braves would love to get a look at over the final handful of weeks to see if they want to keep him. He still has over a month-and-a-half left to satisfy his Rule 5 obligations. Interestingly, he's probably going to be arbitration-eligible because of all of the time spent on the major league DL accruing service time.

DL'd: Rhiner Cruz...A Rule 5 pick by the Astros back in 2012, Cruz got into 72 games with Houston over two seasons before being cut two years later so that he could make some real money in Japan. He then spent last year in the Mexican League before signing with the Braves this offseason. The righty with great velocity has been a solid arm out of the Gwinnett pen this year with 54 K's in 43 innings and pretty decent control to go with it.

DL'd: Caleb Dirks (#40)...Coming into 2017, Dirks had spent all of nine days on the DL. This is now his second trip to the DL and he missed nearly a month before. A lot of us that follow the Braves' minor league system had high hopes that Dirks might spend time in the big league pen, but his numbers haven't been nearly as dominant (4.23 FIP/3.85 xFIP) as we've grown to expect from the young righty. In four games since returning from the DL, Dirks gave up ten hits, six earned runs, walked one, struck out three, and surrendered three homers in five innings. This from a guy who gave up three homers in 61 innings all of last year. Hopefully, this trip to the DL helps.

Mississippi
Assigned: Connor Joe...I mentioned the Sean Rodriguez trade already. Just wanted to point out where Joe landed after the trade. He'll probably make his Mississippi debut today as the M-Braves play a double header.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Promoted from Florida: Josh Graham...ERA for a reliever can be incredibly misleading. Just ask Graham. His ERA with Florida was sitting at 4.69. This was mainly a product of two awful outings back-to-back in late May and another stinker on July 16. He gave up five to the Palm Beach Cardinals before Clearwater lit him up for a quartet of runs six days later. A month-and-a-half later, he gave up five more in one outing. That's 14 ER in 3.2 ING. Take those three out and his ERA over the other 28 outings? A 2.23 ERA in 44.2 ING. That's more fitting for a guy with a 27% K-rate, 9% walk rate, and no home runs given up while he maintains a 54% groundball rate. That all comes out to a 2.32 FIP/2.97 xFIP. Now, you can't completely take those three games away - they happened after all - but they help add context to the fact that Graham deserved this promotion. The former 2015 fourth rounder struck out two in his Double-A debut last week.

Activated: Luis Valenzuela...Acquired for the since-retired Jonny Gomes, Valenzuela has spent much of his time with the organization on the DL. He was hitting the ball extremely well when he was acquired but has an OPS in the two seasons after the trade of around .670. He can play up the middle along with sliding over to third base, but unless the bat again starts to show, Valenzuela is just a guy in the system.

Demoted from Gwinnett: Mauricio Cabrera...Things just keep going from bad to worse for Cabrera. After missing some action, Cabrera was demoted to Mississippi and walked three in his first outing there. His second outing didn't go much better, but he did throw a perfect frame on Saturday. It was his first perfect inning in over a month. Out of options, Cabrera will need a strong August to avoid potentially being designated for assignment this offseason.

DL'd: Michael Mader...After not appearing since June 23, Mader finally landed on the DL this week. It's been a year since the Braves acquired Mader from the Marlins and in 34 games (six starts) since, he has 76 K's in 86.2 innings and quite a few walks as well. Rule 5-eligible after the season, the Braves will have an interesting choice to make with Mader. With his fastball/curve mix, Mader could make for a decent lefty reliever if he develops just right. But Mader hasn't really opened any eyes and his walk rate has doubled since last season along with a declining groundball rate. It makes me think Mader will be left unprotected where a team might bite on the prospect of using Mader as a LOOGY.

Florida
Promoted from GCL: Kyle Wright (#3)...How far the Braves push Wright this season remains to be seen. After three starts in the GCL, Wright arrived in Florida last week and made a pair of starts there. His debut went perfect and he allowed no baserunners over two innings. His next game out didn't go quite as well, but he still allowed just a single and walked one. Both times, he was limited to two innings or less than 30 pitches. After 103.1 high-profile innings with Vanderbilt, chances are Wright won't throw much more than a few dozen innings - if that. Regardless, every time out, he has the focus of Braves Country as fans wonder just how close Wright is to putting his hat in the ring for a spot in Atlanta.

Demoted from Mississippi: Junior Rincon...Another week, another transaction for Rincon. He's been in the organization for just a month, but he's quickly become one of the always-on-the-move pitchers who fills in wherever he's needed. Rincon, who has also pitched in the Marlins and Brewers' organizations, carries a 4.63 ERA over 11.2 innings into this week, but on the plus side, he's K'd 17.

Demoted from Mississippi: Matt Withrow (#45)...At first, this was a "rehab assignment," but the next day, there were reports Withrow had been assigned. One of those designations could be a typo or it could have something to do with a less-than-thrilling rehab appearance with the Fire Frogs. In a 2.1 inning appearance out of the pen, Withrow allowed five baserunners. He limited the damage to just one run, but retiring seven and putting five guys on won't amaze anyone. Withrow had a bipolar-like beginning to the year before hitting the DL. First five starts: 2.08 ERA. Next five starts: 7.25 ERA. He threw fewer strikes and what strikes he did throw were sent sailing to the outfield and beyond. Withrow is a talented pitcher with an inconsistent feel for the strike zone. Perhaps he'll find it in Florida.

DL'd: Joe Rogers...A fifth rounder by the Tigers all the way back in 2012, Rogers hasn't been good since '15. At 26 years-old with a 6.29 ERA between Rome, Florida, and Mississippi, it's a surprise he still has a job.

Released: Andrew Daniel...This is the progression of Daniel's OPS from 2014 to now: .917, .752, .686, .597. Now, I'm not brilliant by any means, but that seems bad. Signed to give Mississippi some depth, Daniel washed out there before a recent demotion to Florida, where he continued to struggle. An 11th rounder by the Angels back in '14, Daniel might have to try his luck in independent baseball or dive into a new trade.

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Walter Borkovich...Good to see the Borkovich continuing to develop. An undrafted free agent out of Michigan State, Borkovich tossed nine quality innings for Danville - which followed four quality innings in the GCL - before getting promoted to single-A. In his first game with Rome, he nailed down a save, though he did give up four hits in two innings. Obviously, when players don't get drafted despite playing high-quality conference ball, there wasn't a lot of interest in them. Nevertheless, Borkovich seems primed to do well in the lower minors because he matches pitchability with a fearless attitude. It's the more competitive upper levels of the minors where I wonder if Borkovich will continue to be successful. Well, until then.

Promoted from Danville: Taylor Hyssong...An 8th rounder last year, Hyssong has been at Danville now for 20 total games between two seasons with nothing really standing out about his numbers. Drafted more to save money (signed for $10K, $174,400 less than the suggested slot), I wrote this about Hyssong at the time. "Nothing really stands out in his numbers." That remains the case.

Promoted from Danville: Bradley Keller...A 15th rounder back in 2015, Keller has been slow to develop. Keller was a callback to the old Braves' way of drafting toolsy players and trying to teach them how to play. He struggled through a 2015 introduction to pro ball in the Gulf Coast League and looked completely lost last year as he struck out 122 times in 318 PA between the GCL and Danville. However, this season, things have started to click. Keller hit .306/.360/.597 over 33 games with the D-Braves. That includes an 11-game run before his promotion in which Keller hit .400 with six doubles, two triples, and three home runs. He added his seventh homer of the year in his first game with Rome. Keller still strikes out a good amount, but he's starting to hit the ball with much more authority. Could still turn into an interesting enough prospect and with Ventura traded, there are more at-bats for guys like Keller.

Danville
Promoted from GCL: Jeffrey Ramos...Very few people took note of Ramos heading into this season. One of the lesser-known names coming out of last year's mega J2 class, Ramos was also one of the few to immediately get into game action. It may have been too much for the 17-year-old as he hit just .230/.283/.333 over 33 games in the DSL. This season, he joined many of the other J2 class members from last year in the GCL and outshined most of them - and a good portion of the league. Over 30 games, he hit .325/.374/.556 with 14 extra base hits, including a half-dozen homers. A left fielder by trade, Ramos will go as far as his bat takes him and early impressions are it might take him quite a long way.

Demoted from Rome: Troy Conyers...The 23rd rounder in June, Conyers dominated the Gulf Coast League before bypassing Danville to join Rome in late July. He made three long-relief outings there and kept pitching well so I assume this is more roster management than anything.

Demoted from Rome: Tucker Davidson...There are two reasons a guy with a 2.99 FIP and 3.4 K/BB gets demoted from full-season low-A ball to Rookie ball. Either the Braves needed a roster spot in Rome or Davidson is getting punished for whatever reason. Or...there is a third reason that might work here. Davidson might be hitting a bit of a wall and they are giving him a breather (or flat-out shutting him down). Davidson worked entirely out of the bullpen until June 27. His next seven games were all out of the rotation. At 76.1 ING, he's thrown a shade over 45 innings more than he tossed in 2017, which could be influencing this roster move. Either way, Davidson has pitched well this season and there was a reason to believe he'd receive a promotion rather than a demotion.

GCL
Promoted from DSL: Gabriel Noguera...The Braves scout as well as anyone out of Venezuela, but Noguera's story is a little different. His name came up in the 2013 J2 class as a Top 50 prospect, but he didn't sign until last year. Earning praise for a "low-effort delivery" and a good fastball, Noguera finally made his professional debut in his Age-21 season in the Dominican Summer League. He looked very good again there and while his 0.87 ERA in 31 innings was soft, his strikeout-an-inning stats were impressive. He made his first start stateside last week and went four quality innings while allowing a run. He's not a big prospect, but at 21, it wouldn't surprise me to see Noguera on the Rome Braves roster when 2018 opens.

Assigned: Alex Aquino...Almost fitting that in the week Ventura's name shows up in this, Aquino finally joins an active roster. Aquino and Ventura were two of the four Braves' farmhands involved in a late August car accident in the Dominican Republic. He's the only one still in the system now. A right-hand hitting infielder, Aquino hit .274/.329/.378 with the GCL squad last year and hit his first professional homerun. It was a bit of an improvement over his 2015 DSL campaign. Despite joining the team last Tuesday, though, he has yet to play in a game.

Rehab from Gwinnett: Josh Collmenter...Did you forget he was in the system? You're not alone. Collmenter opened the season on the active roster after pretty much earning a spot with three smoke-and-mirrors starts last September. It did not go well for Collmenter and he was sent to the minors in late May, but he hit the DL soon after and did not appear in a game for Gwinnett. Last Wednesday was his first appearance since May 24 and he gave up three hits, a run, a walk, and picked up one strikeout in three innings of relief.

DSL
Nothing outside of losing Noguera.

Tuesday, April 25, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: Howard, Dirks, Sobotka, Roney

Articles in back-to-back days here as Walk-Off Walk as we work into the final week of April. If you're new to the blog, Transaction Tuesday is a recap of the moves in the Braves organization from Atlanta all the way down to rookie ball. It's a simple way to keep track of player movement.

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between April 18 and April 24. Taxi Squad refers to a Braves minor league team "sending" a player to Danville just to get him off the active roster. In most cases, the player will stay with the team that just demoted him until he is brought back onto the active roster. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta Braves
Rehab and Activated: Matt Kemp...All told, Kemp spent the minimum ten days on the disabled list dealing with a right hamstring injury. He appeared in one game for Gwinnett, his first taste of minor league action since 2013. He went 1-for-3 with a single and a strikeout. In four games since being activated, Kemp is 3-for-17 with a homer and two strikeouts.

Promoted and Optioned to Gwinnett: Aaron Blair...With the bullpen tired, the Braves called up Blair last week for a few days before sending him back to Gwinnett. Atlanta didn't want to get Blair off his regular pitching schedule too much so a demotion was appropriate even though Blair never appeared during his brief return to the bigs. In three starts with Gwinnett his year, Blair has racked up 16 K's, but still lacks the consistency that made watching him so frustrating for both Braves fans and team management.

Promoted: Matt Wisler...Replacing Blair on the roster was Wisler, who has also made three average starts. The control is superb as usual, but Wisler continues to struggle to set down batters and shorten innings.

Optioned to Gwinnett: Johan Camargo...The switch-hitting shortstop from Panama got into five games during his first stint in the bigs and went 1-for-4 with 3 K's. His pinch-hit single made Camargo the second Atlanta Brave this year, along with Tyler Flowers, to have a hit in a pinch-hit appearance. Camargo has been a surprise with the bat since spring training began and already has two homers with Gwinnett.

Optioned to Gwinnett: Luke Jackson (#24)...After making a start in his season debut with Gwinnett, Jackson joined the Braves roster after Chaz Roe went on the DL. He worked a trio of games during his time in the majors flashing his swing-and-miss potential. The Braves are working with Jackson to throw more strikes to take advantage of his talented right arm and so far, so good. He'll continue his quest to get back to the bigs - this time to stay - as he continues his journey with Gwinnett.

Traded to the Angels: David Hernandez...Signed just before the season began after he failed to make the Giants roster, Hernandez had a good beginning to his season in Gwinnett. In seven games, Hernandez picked up four saves and allowed just one earned run in eight innings. He also K'd nine and walked two. Many Braves fans wanted to see him get a shot with the big league team, but he'll now head west. I have to believe the Braves weren't enamored and saw a chance to acquire anything (in this case, a player to be named later or cash) rather than watch Hernandez opt out of his contract on May 1.

Gwinnett Braves
By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Promoted from Extended Spring Training: Ryan Howard...The former Phillies slugger had been working out with some of the youngest Braves prospects after signing with the team and has now finally been activated. In his first game on Saturday, he went 2-for-2 with a pair of singles, a HBP, and an intentional pass. Of course, with the Braves' bench full of issues, Howard's success in Gwinnett could push the first baseman to the majors in a hurry.

Promoted from Rome: Enderson Franco...Needing a fresh arm, the Braves brought up Franco for a reinforcement. Franco had begun the year in Rome, a step-down from his 2016 campaign in Carolina. He appeared twice out of the pen in the South Atlantic League, but was immediately put into a starting role last Saturday and worked four good innings in Gwinnett's 5-2 win against the Pawtucket Red Sox. It was his first outing above A-ball in his eight-year career.

Demoted to Mississippi: Adam Walker...Almost nobody in the Braves' minor league system can match Walker's power, but the flaws that have plagued his career were an issue to open the 2017 campaign. He struck out 16 times in 44 PA (36%) and reached base safely via a hit or walk just 9 times. He did have three doubles a homer in ten games. In three games with Mississippi, he's already smacked a pair of homers and struck out five times.

Placed on Taxi Squad: Caleb Dirks (#34)...No Gwinnett reliever had worked more innings than Dirks when he was pushed off the active roster. In five games, Dirks has allowed four runs in 9.2 innings with eight strikeouts. His control, normally excellent, has been missing with a handful of walks. Hopefully, the mini-break will help him moving forward.

Mississippi Braves
Activated: Joe Rogers...A late signing after the Tigers cut him on March 19, Rogers is a former 2012 fifth rounder out of Central Florida. Injuries have limited him throughout his career to the point that last year's 36.1 innings stands as his personal high. A lefty, Rogers has just 20 games above A-ball with some miserable results. Well, his numbers at A-ball aren't that good, either. Rogers is just an arm at this point who, I assume, a scout liked enough to convince his boss that he was worthy of a longer look.

Placed on Taxi Squad: Chad Sobotka (#40)...To make room for Rogers, Sobotka was moved off the active roster. After a fractured back suffered in college kept the 2014 fourth rounder out until the following year, Sobotka has slowly worked his way up. Other ailments limited him to just 15 games in 2015 and 30 games the following year. Sobotka, who is an intimating presence on the mound at 6'7", has good stuff, but can he shake the injuries to push his way into the big league picture? If so, he'll give the Braves an intriguing option possibly as soon as the second half of this year.

Florida Fire Frogs
Rehab from Gwinnett: Bradley Roney (#38)...One of the top strikeout arms in the minors, Roney struck out two in two different appearances for Florida this week as he rehabs back from an injury that forced him to miss the beginning of the season. He also walked three, hit a batter, and uncorked a wild pitch. That continues a career-long problem with control for the 24 year-old. From a stuff standpoint, Roney holds his own with any reliever in the Braves organization - including the majors. He simply hasn't been able to control it. Last September, with a chance to go up two games to none in the Governor's Cup, Roney hit a batter and walked two before being removed. Maikel Cleto replaced him in body, but not in spirit as he walked in first the tying run and then the winning run. The Braves lost 2-1 despite allowing just one hit. They would get shut out the next two games to lose the series. A week before that, the dominant Roney was on display as he went 3.1 innings with 8 strikeouts as the Braves won 5-4 in the opener of their first-round series against Columbus. I point that out because to this point, sometimes you get the wildly ineffective Roney and other times you get the shutdown Roney. If he can ever show us more of the latter and less of the former, he's going to be a high-leverage pitcher in the majors.

Demoted to Rome: Raymar Navarro...Signed out of Cuba in the summer of 2015, Navarro made his debut last year with 28 forgetful games in Carolina. He was ticketed for another stay in high-A ball, but a numbers game and a DL stint to begin the year have sent him north to Rome. In his first outing, he K'd a trio of SALLY League hitters in two frames. Navarro is way too old at 26 to be in the South Atlantic League for long, but it's tough to find many innings for project pitchers in this system.

Placed on Taxi Squad: Josh Graham...A fourth rounder in 2015, Graham transitioned to the bullpen full-time last year and the former Oregon Duck was one of Rome's best relievers. He K'd 50 over 42.1 innings while walking just 12. That's a top-notch rate of 4.2 strikeouts per walks. Not a huge prospect, but a good enough one to keep an eye on, Graham opened the season in Florida and the results have been ugly. He's yet to avoid a run-scoring outing and his control has been MIA. This stint "with Danville" is likely a chance to give him some time to clear his head. If everything is right physically and mentally, I expect Graham to rejoin the roster sometime this week.

Rome Braves
Brought back from Taxi Squad: Matt Custred...Like the aforementioned Graham, Custred was a pick in the 2015 draft, though Custred was picked over 20 rounds later in the 31st round. The Texan and former Texas Tech Red Raider has been excellent during his career. Last year, he picked up 64 K's in Rome over 56.2 innings, though he was a bit wild. With the Florida roster packed, Custred was a surprise return to Rome to open the year and has four outings sandwiched around a brief stint "in Danville." He's been great again for Rome with 12 K's in 8.2 innings, though five walks are still too many. At 23 years-old, he is waiting for a promotion to Florida to challenge himself there.

Placed on Taxi Squad and brought back: Bladimir Matos...The time is running out on Matos. Signed shortly before his 21st birthday, Matos was already old to begin his career considering he was an international signing. To this point, the results just haven't been there. Nobody doubts he has the stuff to be a professional pitcher with over a K an inning during his career, but the wildness has limited him. That continues with Rome. In nine innings, he's struck out 13, but walked six and hit a batter. Now 23, Matos has got to show something if he wants to stick around.

Tuesday, January 3, 2017

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: Next 5 Looking In

This week begins the long countdown to the #1 prospect on the Walkoffwalk list of the Top Atlanta Braves Prospects as we head into the 2017 season. While next week and the weeks that follow will focus on the rankings, this week focuses on five interesting prospects who were guys who just missed my Top 50. I want to give them their own article because it would not surprise me if all five are in the Top 50 by midseason.

I should note that these were not necessarily my #51-#55 guys in my rankings, but the five I believe have the most "wow" factor to make a leap.

*All ages are as of opening day, 2017.

Corbin Clouse, LHP, 21 years-old, @corbin018

It's not often that a 27th rounder starts pushing his way into the Top 50 prospects of a well-respected system a half-year after being drafted, but Clouse nearly did that for me. Drafted out of small Davenport College last June, Clouse put up one of my favorite numbers of 2016 during a four-game swing in the Appalachian League where the difficulty level was on easy. In 6.2 innings, he had a -0.24 FIP. That's right - FIP can go negative. Of the 22 batters he faced, he struck out 16 and only allowed two to reach base (both via a walk). He then finished the season with Rome and while his dominance wasn't superhuman, it was still dang good (39% strikeout rate, 2.60 FIP, and one home run allowed in 23.2 innings). While lefties dreamed of getting a hit off him (he only allowed three to them), righties slashed a miserable .137/.250/.192 off him. Yes, he's just a reliever, but those numbers are absurd.

But Jaime Richmond once had absurd numbers, too. Richmond, who later was traded for Mark Kotsay, is my control for not getting too excited about rookie-league pitchers. Back in 2006, he had a 2.16 FIP over 67 innings. He never made it to Double-A. That's not an indictment on Clouse, who I do like a lot. Clouse rarely pitched until his senior year of high school and then pitched for the largely unknown NAIA program at Davenport. That alone makes him easy to root for. Clouse works off a low-to-mid 90's two-seam fastball and a slider that was impossible for lefties to touch last year and buckled a lot of right-handed batters' knees. He also has a four-seamer and a changeup, but both pitches need more developing to be a weapon.

The Braves have shown a willingness to be aggressive with college-age arms - especially relievers. Matt Marksberry made it to the show in his second full season while A.J. Minter climbed from low-A ball to Double-A last year. If Clouse continues to perform, he could be on a similar trajectory.



Josh Graham, RHP, 23 years-old

As a member of the Oregon Ducks, Graham was a catching prospect looking for at-bats. Instead, he became a reliever in his junior year and flourished in the role. Oregon liked him so much that they moved him to the starting rotation for a half-dozen starts and over 65 innings, Graham K'd 64 despite never throwing in a college game until that season. The success convinced Brett Evert, a former top draft pick by the Braves turned scout, to lobby hard for the Braves to select the 6'1" righty high in the 2015 draft. Atlanta did just that, selecting Graham with the 120th overall selection (4th round) and signing him for an over-slot $500K.

Graham would be used as a reliever in his first outing, but started his final five games of 2015 for Danville. Overall, he K'd 21 in 17.1 innings with just three walks. With mid 90's heat and an improving collection of secondary offerings, Graham entered 2016 as a name to watch. He would miss the first month of action before appearing in 35 games from May until the end of the season. His final 16 games were especially good as he K'd 20 in 16.2 innings while allowing just five earned runs.

The Braves are still not sure what they have with Graham considering his rawness. When you combine his Oregon days, he has pitched just 124.2 innings since high school. He hasn't induced a lot of grounders to this point and the four homers he allowed last year could be considered slightly troubling. With that said, Graham has a great shot to rocket up the ladder if he can get more lefties out and keep the ball in the yard at a better clip.

Here is a look at his pitching mechanics from his Ducks days.



Dylan Moore, Infielder, 24 years-old, @d_moore22

Picked up in the overly complicated three-team trade that sent Jeff Fancoeur to the Marlins, Moore is a fringy right-handed hitter without a position. That said, he can play enough positions to be a pretty interesting player moving forward. Drafted by the Rangers in the 7th round of the 2015 draft out of Central Florida, Moore hit .271/.376/.454 after joining the Rangers. The following year, he spent most of the year in the South Atlantic League before a short stay in the California League. After the trade, he moved to Carolina and OPS'd .872. Overall, his 2016 line was .269/.379/.441 with 14 homers and 42 steals. Not included in that slash was his postseason experience with Double-A Mississippi after Ozzie Albies got hurt. At the end of the year, he headed to the Arizona Fall League and hit .317 with 2 homers in 45 PA.

Along the way, Moore played every position on the field except for catcher. Yeah, he even logged one inning on the mound where he gave up seven runs (all unearned). The Braves limited him to 1B/SS/3B after the trade, though it'll be interesting to see if he plays any position in particular or keeps being used as a journeyman.

While picked in the first ten rounds, Moore's selection likely had a lot to do with his willingness to sign for cheap (his slot value was near $220K, he signed for $10K). That said, all that matters is that so far, Moore has hit and shown enough defensive flexibility to be a rather intriguing player. Moore is what I call a "maximizer." Individually, none of his tools stand out, but he makes the most of what he has. He has good discipline at the plate and his short-and-compact swing allows him to avoid big strikeout numbers. He'll swipe a few bases - largely due to intelligence on the base paths. Like I said, Moore makes the most out of his tools and while he'll never rocket to the top of a prospect list, he's got enough going in his favor to deserve more recognition.



Carlos Salazar, RHP, 22 years-old

Sometimes, the ceiling is just too high for players to reach. Salazar was one of Frank Wren's final high-projection picks before he was axed. Picked at the end of the third round in 2013, Salazar was considered a Top 100 draft prospect before the Braves took him at 102nd overall. Capable of reaching near three digits, the question was whether or not he'd be able to hit the strike zone.

Three-and-a-half years later, that question remains. His walk rate has been above 25% since arriving in high-A ball in the summer of 2015. While he has struck out 86 in 63.1 innings, that doesn't make up for the 79 walks. Worse, rather than his control getting any better, it has worsened the more he's advanced up the minor league ladder. His breaking ball has never been able to land consistently for strikes and Salazar may have benefitted from going to Fresno State rather than signing, though he likely would have sacrificed draft spots and money in doing so.

That said, pitchers sometimes click with the right pitching coach and maybe the Braves have that person. He's been compared to Jordan Walden largely because of a small hop at the end of his delivery. If the Braves can ever get him to locate his breaking stuff to go with his fastball, Salazar could be salvaged and he would be a deserving candidate for a Top 50 slot as a prospect. That's a lot to hope for right now, but the ceiling is still there - however hard it is to see.



Randy Ventura, OF, 19 years-old

Old loves die hard. The center fielder became a bit of a summer star for the Braves in 2015 as he made his professional debut in the Dominican Summer League and stole 55 bases in just 58 games. He complimented his big debut with a .421 OBP on the heels of a .329 batting average and a 35/27 K/BB combo. And then...a car accident ended his season after his left scapula (shoulder blade) was fractured. Nevertheless, it was a promising start for the switch-hitter.

2016 wasn't so...overwhelming. It wasn't a bad season for Ventura, who spent the year in the Gulf Coast League. He hit .284 after all. However, his slight frame only let him hit seven extra base hits and he only stole 15 bases. His on-base percentage was solid at .358, but the qualities that made him exciting were gone.

I fell in love with Ventura in 2015 which is why I forgot to logically look at things. There were over 3600 stolen bases in the short-season DSL during 2015. The GCL in 2016 (in fewer games) didn't reach 1000. There are better catchers the more you climb the charts. To be honest, Ventura isn't more deserving than J.B. Moss, Wes Parsons, and Evan Phillips - who all missed my Top 50. But ranking prospects is largely an exercise in faith. We can use numbers and compare what players did versus the level they did it at. We can also include tools and projectability. At the end of the day, it's a lot of hope, though. For one more year, I'll hope Ventura returns to being an interesting prospect. Maybe I'll be rewarded - chances are, I won't. But I still have some hope.



Thanks for my reading the five bubble guys - well, really four - that just missed my Top 50. My current plan is to release Prospect #50 to #41 next Tuesday and continue each week to release ten more until I get to the Top 10. At that point, I'll split it up into two final parts. If I do this right, the Top 5 will be released the morning that the Braves pitchers and catchers report. Again, thanks for reading!