Hey Brandon, how 'bout a Retrospective Thank You?

Last week, the Braves, prompted by a promotion of Ozzie Albies to the bigs to become the everyday 2nd baseman, asked Brandon Phillips if he'd slide over to the hot corner to make room for the rookie. Needless to say the veteran was not happy when informed of the decision and made that known by silence.  Here's the story, paraphrased by me and told by Jim Powell of Braves radio (read from bottom to top):

Jim Powell just told a story: BP never gave a verbal agreement to play 3B, rather he showed up next day & fielded grounders at 3B. #Braves

— Ryan Cothran (@baldheaded1der) August 6, 2017

He also went on to say there's still been no communication and he implied BP still isn't too happy with decision. https://t.co/NKtguH4E7o

— Ryan Cothran (@baldheaded1der) August 6, 2017

Most Twitterers that watch Braves games on a regular basis have noticed that BP's normal smile and "love for the game" hasn't been as present lately, and rightfully so.  He was traded away from the team he'd spent 11 years manning 2nd base after they informed him that he would be replaced by Jose Peraza. Fast forward 1/2 a year, and it essentially happened again, but with an alternate ultimatum: play 3B or ride the pine. It's a hard pill to swallow especially in the midst of a pretty good season, but whether it be willingly or out of spite, he accepted the challenge and the transition is going about as well as could have been expected.

Watching Brandon over at 3B, one doesn't have to be a rocket scientist to see that in the 54 inning sample size his play has been something to behold.

• Line drives are being snagged.
• Balls down the line are gloved.
• Tricky hops are no match.
• And most surprisingly, the arm is playing.

Jeff Morris- Follow on Twitter

He's not just passing the eye test as his +2 Defensive Runs Saved tell the same tale.

Phillips has always had remarkable hands, but with age, his range has naturally deteriorated. The rest of the skills are omnipresent which makes the move to 3rd seem unintentionally intelligent. With this being said, hopefully Brandon can see a blessing in disguise and realize what has just transpired. In a day where MLB teams are looking for more and more positional flexibility, the pure truth that has just happened is the Braves have made Phillips more desirable right before he enters free agency.

So Brandon, when a team gives you a 2 year/20 million dollar deal to be a swing-man between 2nd and 3rd, giving you ample rest and 100-120 starts a year, a tip of the cap to the Braves would be nice because sometimes a true blessing is one that cannot be see by our own eyes but by others.

Monday Roundup: Bullpen Usage, Rotation Comparison, Missing Alex Wood

Welcome to this week's Monday Roundup. WOW is improving in its content delivery as this weekend saw a number of articles. Going to continue the trend moving into this week. If you haven't already, check out new contributor Ryan Cothran's first article about BABIP.

May 8: Off

May 9: 8-3 LOSS at Astros
Bartolo Colon was saddled with a five-run first and this game was essentially done. Colon did work into the sixth, but gave up three more runs and was removed after an eight-run barrage over 5.2 ING. It was the first time since last July that he surrendered three homers in a game. Sam Freeman worked 2.1 innings in relief to close out the game. Matt Kemp had a two-hit game.

May 10: 4-2 LOSS at Astros
Jaime Garcia was flirting with disaster until a three-run fifth was his undoing. He went six innings and did walk five. He also gave up six hits, including three doubles, and struck out four. Jason Motte and Arodys Vizcaino each worked a scoreless inning in relief. The Braves got both of their runs in the fourth when Freddie Freeman led off the frame with a game-tying solo bomb, his 12th, and Adonis Garcia hit a two-out shot later in the inning. It was his fourth homer, but the Braves couldn't add on.

May 11: Off (again (for reasons))

May 12: 8-4 WIN at Marlins
For a change, it was the Braves turning a game into a blowout in the late innings. In the seventh inning, with the score 2-1, the Braves offense consisted of an HBP, three singles, an intentional pass, and two unintentional walks. By the end of the inning, the Braves had plated six. Tyler Flowers was a big part of the frame as he got the rally going the hit-by-pitch and singled in two runners to close put a bow on the frame. Earlier in the game, the catcher also blasted a two-run homer, his first homer of the year. Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp both had two-hit games to join Flowers. Mike Foltynewicz started and went six innings. His changeup was working better than it had all year and he worked around a half-dozen hits - but no walks - to give up just one run. Ian Krol was picked on for two runs and Jim Johnson gave up a solo shot, but the Braves were never seriously threatened after the seventh.

May 13: 3-1 WIN at Marlins
Julio Teheran turned back the clock to Good Julio with six scoreless innings. He left with a 2-0 lead and the Marlins cut into that lead, but ultimately fell in the game. Nick Markakis had a three-hit night while Freddie Freeman doubled twice and scored two runs. Eric O'Flaherty gave up a solo bomb, but Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson shut the door from there.

May 14: 3-1 LOSS at Marlins
The Braves were rolling toward a sweep and then R.A. Dickey failed to get a call. Shortly after that, Tyler Moore, who spent time in the Braves system last year, hit a three-run pinch-hit bomb. The 1-0 lead was gone and the Braves failed to secure the sweep. Dickey had his best game as a Brave going before the Moore blast. He worked seven innings and walked three, but did all he could. He was hurt by a woeful effort on offense in which the Braves left a dozen runners on base and went 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position. Only a single by Nick Markakis which scored Ender Inciarte kept the Braves from being shut out. Inciarte was on base three times with two singles and a walk.

This week: 2-3
Season: 13-21, 9.5 GB, 5th Place

Upcoming Schedule: No random off-days await the Braves, but they do open the week with a four-game series with the Blue Jays that includes two games in Toronto before both teams head to Atlanta to conclude the series. The Braves end the week with a three-game set against the Nationals. The getaway game in Toronto on Tuesday will be a random 4:07 EST start while the Saturday game will also be a late 4:10 start. Sunday's game is a typical day game that begins at 1:35. If you want to attend a game this week, try Sunday's. As a Alumni Sunday, you get a chance to meet and secure autographs with some former Braves players include the Hall of Fame knuckler Phil Niekro, Chris Chambliss, Gerald Perry, and Terry Harper.

Three Last Things

Rick Briggs (CC by 2.0) via Flickr

1) Modeling After the Reds

No big league team has more bullpen innings than the Cincinnati Reds. With an 8-3 loss in yesterday's game, they are up to 153 innings on the year. Yet, the Reds are below the major league average in number of outings by their bullpen? How does that happen? The Reds are taking advantage of a bullpen with several recent starters. As Craig Edwards pointed out last month at Fangraphs, the Reds are doing something special with their pen in which they rely more on young arms that have recent starting experience. Raisel Iglesias started 29 games between the minors and bigs the last two seasons. Michael Lorenzen was a full-time starter in 2014 and 2015. Robert Stephenson is a reliever for the first time. The Reds, despite living in a National League environment, aren't going through their bullpen before the ninth inning to get one or two outs per pitcher. Rather, they are asking their pen to get four, six, or even more outs.

Could the Braves follow suit? You bet they can, but it will require some changes to the roster makeup. Right now, only Josh Collmenter has been used to get multiple outs and many of their relievers are unlikely to be ready to be used in that type of role. The current core of Jose Ramirez, Jim Johnson, and Arodys Vizcaino will remain in place, but might the Braves opt for Lucas Sims and/or Sean Newcomb rather than Jason Motte and Sam Freeman? I realize starting their clock early for bullpen work might not be advisable, but I'm not trying to turn them into set-up relievers or specialists. I want multiple innings out of them.

It's a thought - one in which the Braves ought to entertain.

2) Braves Second in the Division in Starting Pitching ERA

With a big hat tip to Braves Options Guy for this, but for all of their troubles with the starting rotation, the Braves are actually second in the division in starting pitching ERA.

Don't get too happy about that, though. The difference is nearly a run between the Nats at 3.77 and the Braves at 4.71. The Phils, Marlins, and Mets are among the four worst pitching teams according to ERA in baseball with the Braves standing pretty at sixth worst. Now, to be fair, the Braves are worse than all of their division mates in FIP and fWAR. Still, it's always worth mentioning the positives - if you call "at least others are worse" a positive. Considering the Braves are on pace for a hundred losses, any positive is worth a little digital ink.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

3) The Worst Deal is Looking Worse

Ask a Braves fan to come up with the worst deal completed under the John Hart/John Coppolella regime and even if they disagreed with the rationale of other deals, most Braves fans would come to an agreement on which deal was extra strength terrible. That would be the Hector Olivera trade. Less than two years later, it's only gotten worse.

Alex Wood was starting to struggle with the Braves in 2014. His fastball lost velocity and his K's tumbled. Including him in the deal seemed like a smart "get what you can" effort. Since the trade, Wood has found himself - and a good 3-4 mph on his fastball. Some of that may be due to the new Statcast system, but not all of it. His sinker has been especially good this season. He's spotting it for strikes a lot better than he did toward the end of his Braves tenure and with the added velocity, getting 2-4% more whiffs on his most used pitch.

Even without Wood pitching as well as any pitcher in baseball, the deal was a black eye. For Wood and Jose Peraza, the Braves had precious little to show for it. That's not including Luis Avilan (2.71 FIP with the Dodgers) and paying the Dodgers to carry Bronson Arroyo. The Braves received Paco Rodriguez, who they cut this spring, and Zachary Bird, who they lost in minor-league portion of the Rule 5 draft. Now, they did get Austin Riley and he still might make it to the bigs, but if he doesn't, the Braves will continue to use the Olivera trade as a cautionary tale.

Of course, Atlanta did turn Olivera into Matt Kemp so there's that.

Braves Add Micah Johnson to the Mix

Keith Allison via Flickr CC 2.0

Last night, I read that Micah Johnson had been designated for assignment and immediately, my first thought was that he might make for a good target. Before I attempted to pen an article or send out a few tweets on the subject, I thought better of it. After all, is he that different from Jace Peterson?

Well, the Braves clearly liked him because today, they acquired the young speedster for either cash or a player to be named later. In addition, they agreed to arbitration with Arodys Vizcaino ($1.55M) and Ian Krol ($900K), which means the Braves will avoid an arbitration hearing.

So, who is Johnson? Born a week before Christmas in 1990, Johnson spent much of his life in Indiana. Undrafted out of high school, Johnson was selected in the ninth round in 2012 out of Indiana University-Bloomington and signed three days later. Quietly, he became a nifty prospect for the ChiSox with a big 2013 campaign that saw him play for three minor league squads and slash .312/.373/.451 with 24 doubles, 15 triples, 7 homers, and 84 steals. Those numbers were pretty legit as he played in the South Atlantic and Carolina Leagues for the majority of the season, which hardly boost your offensive numbers.

After a short-lived run in the Arizona Fall League, Johnson was off to a great start in the Southern League in 2014 before a promotion to Triple-A Charlotte of the International League. His numbers took a bit of a dive there as his struggled to get on base once his average dipped below .280. Whatever power he has shown the previous year all but disappeared as well. Injuries also limited him to just 102 games on the year.

Whatever troubles he had in 2014, he put them behind him with a big spring to beat out Carlos Sanchez for the opening day second base job. While he would maintain a .270 batting average through the season's first 30 games, his issues at the plate continued to haunt him. He walked just five times compared to 17 strikeouts. With his OPS hovering in the .630's, Johnson was sent to the minors. Back in Charlotte, Johnson was able to right the ship with a .315/.375/.466 run with 8 homers and 28 steals. He was brought back in September, but couldn't find any holes and struck out in 13 of 31 PA.

Just a few months after believing Johnson could be the answer at second base, the White Sox included Johnson in a three-team deal with the Dodgers and Reds which sent Todd Frazier to Chicago, Jose Peraza to the Reds, and Johnson and two other prospects out west. Injuries got him to the majors for a second consecutive season, but Johnson spent nearly all of the season in Oklahoma City. The results weren't much to write home about despite the hitter-friendly environment of the Pacific Coast League.

His .261/.321/.356 slash with 26 steals in 37 opportunities would eventually lead to being designated for assignment when Los Angeles needed a 40-man spot.

Johnson's minor league numbers are solid (.292/.357/.414), though his isolated slugging is all over the place. Some have suggested that his approach at the plate is inconsistent. When he's posted .137, .151, and higher isolated slugging marks, he does so in a way that might remind Braves fans of Marcus Giles. He loads his weight back, brings his front leg down, and torques his bottom half to maximize his power (first video to the right). That version of Johnson could bring some serious value to the table. At the same time, there is another Johnson who relies on bat control and a quick bat so that he can slap the ball (second video to the right). When watching video of the two swings, you might be convinced they are two different players.

Perhaps, White Sox coaches saw a fast player who should leg out grounders hit the other way and convinced him to cut down on his swing. Personally, I think that's a waste. While Johnson will never be a 20 HR/60 extra-base hit player, he has the potential to post double digit homerun seasons given the right amount of opportunities.

A left-handed hitter, Johnson does have traditional platoon splits with at least a 71-point difference in each season according to OPS in favor of facing right-handed pitchers. It's been especially pronounced the last two seasons.

Defensively, Johnson is a right-handed second baseman who has graded out average during his minor league career according to Clay Davenport's defensive metrics. It's been a bit ugly in the majors, but that's likely sample-size hurting him. Regardless, despite impressive speed, it appears that Johnson is going to max out as merely average defensively. Last year, similar to their attempts to turn Peraza into an outfielder, the Dodgers utilized Johnson as an outfielder and even gave him a little time at third base. His numbers in the outfield appear decent, but there's not enough data.

Johnson just turned 26 so he won't be on my prospect list, but he's got an intriguing skill set - especially if he's loading up for power. Where does he fit on this Braves roster? Well, he's a better bench option that Emilio Bonifacio. If the Braves don't add a fourth outfielder, Johnson could be part of the hybrid bench with either Sean Rodriguez or the aforementioned Jace Peterson as guys who can play both the infield and outfield. Johnson would also fit a role I liked for Mallex Smith - speedster off the bench for late-inning replacements. On the other hand, a less-than-overwhelming spring could ticket Johnson for a return to Triple-A, which would exhaust his final option.

Either way, the Braves added a potential bench player with some upside for peanuts. We'll see how this one turns out, but the chances it hurts any is minimal.

Random Prospect Sunday - Lucas Sims

(A little note on this series. On Sundays throughout the season, a player will be chosen at random using the helpful website, random.org. The goal of this series is to talk about both big prospects and organizational filler rather than focus completely on the Top 20 prospects in the system. I alternate pitchers and hitters and this week, I focus on a pitcher with a high ceiling. Here's the rest of this series.)

Rob Carr/Getty Images

How altered is the Braves system in just over 12 months? When I did my first Top 30 Prospects last March, I ranked today's spotlight player Lucas Sims second, sandwiched between Jose Peraza and Max Fried. A year later, he was ranked seventh and the amazing thing was that 2015 wasn't even considered a bad season because of how it ended. I still graded him as a B+ player, but the talent got so much better and dropped him back. He still has a great chance, however, of being an excellent starter in the majors.

Born in Lawrenceville, Georgia on May 10, 1994, Sims' parents were probably a little too busy to notice that the Braves had outslugged the Phillies 9-8 on the back of a seven-run ninth to tie the score. The big knocks of the inning came from a three-run shot by Mike Mordecai and an RBI single by Javy Lopez to tie the game. In the 15th - and this is true - Deion Sanders doubled and stole third. He would score on a suicide squeeze off the bat of Mike Stanton. What a fun day in Braves' history to be born.

A fixture at Turner Field during the Streak, Sims grew to fame with Brookwood High School out of Snellville, Georgia, even besting Parkview High School at times. You might remember Parkview because it produced Jeff Francoeur. He came into the draft with four pitches and mid-90's velocity. A commit to Clemson, Sims was selected by the Braves as the 21st pick of the 2012 draft. Shortly thereafter, they signed him with a bonus of $1.65M - which was actually less than the suggested bonus for that slot. Sims was one of the prime jewels of the Frank Wren era. Like Jason Heyward before him, the Braves had put aside their tendency to select high floor rather than high ceiling. The fact that both Heyward and Sims were Georgia prep stars may have played a role in that.

Sims started briefly in the Gulf Coast League, but the Braves felt the kid was mature enough for a promotion after just three starts so they sent him to Danville. He was not quite as successful over eight starts like he was with the GCL Braves, but Sims remained difficult to hit (9.7 K/9) and his biggest issues were self-inflicted (4 BB/9). In 2013, the Braves kept the training wheels on for another season - even moving Sims to the bullpen to limit his innings thrown. Yet, even with their efforts to suppress his performance, he showed the potential that made him such a high pick. In 116.2 innings, he struck out 134 and allowed just three homeruns despite dealing with hitters who were typically more physically mature and more experienced. With the Braves' farm system drying up due to trades and a host of graduations to the majors (including Alex Wood, selected a round after Sims), the young righty became one of the premier prospects left on the farm.

Ranked as a Top 60 prospect by Baseball Prospectus, Baseball America, and MLB.com entering 2014, Sims was a marked man with a host of expectations. Those hopes for Sims led to him pressing as a member of the Lynchburg Hillcats. "Some of my weaknesses got exposed," Sims said. The few negative grades related to his 2013 season (15 HBP, 14 WP) followed him in '14, but he surrendered a slightly higher rate of homeruns and saw his strikeout rate plummet from 10.3 K/9 to 6.2. The only thing positive stat from the tough go-of-it was that he pitched 156.1 innings. And let's not forget that he was, at 20, the youngest player in the Carolina League.

The Braves brought him to camp the next spring - after all, he was their best pitching prospect at the time - and Sims even got into a couple of games. In the eighth inning of a game against the Astros, Sims pitched a hitless frame. Atlanta would go on to no-hit the Astros, but as was their M.O. in 2015, Atlanta found a way to not win (they ultimately tied the game 2-2 in ten innings). Sims returned to the Carolina League after spring camp - this time with Carolina - and struggled out the gate. Over a three-game stretch, which included a visit to Lynchburg, Sims surrendered 14 runs (12 ER) over just 8.2 innings. He would regroup when the calendar switched to May and over his next two starts, he went 13 innings with just two earned runs allowed. On the day that he would have made his seventh start of the year, the Carolina Mudcats' bus crashed in route to Myrtle Beach. Sims was one of several players injured in the crash and would not play in a game again until June 25. He was roughed up in a two-start rehab stint in the Gulf Coast League before returning to start Carolina's game against, ironically enough, Myrtle Beach the day after Independence Day. The Pelicans put up a six spot against him. Five days later, he took the mound in Myrtle Beach and tossed three scoreless inning, but a high-pitch count ended his day prematurely. Finally, on July 16th, he threw six great innings against Winston-Salem in which he struck out eight. It would be his final Single-A start.

He would finish the season with nine starts with Mississippi. His control was shaky, but he pitched at least 5.1 innings in 7 of his starts and only surrendered more than two runs twice. His final three starts were especially dominating as he went 19.1 innings with 22 strikeouts, five walks, and 11 hits allowed. His season would have ended on a high note if that's how it closed, but it continued with a six-game showing with Peoria in the Arizona Fall League. On a much stricter pitch count, Sims was impressive in a hitter's league, allowing just five runs (four earned) in 17 innings with a K/BB rate of 17/3. Below is some footage from his AFL run courtesy of Fangraphs.


So far in 2016, Sims has made a pair of starts and leads the system with 16 K's over 9 innings. His control has been quite suspect so far this year with 7 walks, but that should fall back in line.

The book on Sims is that he throws a fastball with great velocity in the mid 90's and while it has been hittable when not controlled, it can also be difficult to square up when it's down in the zone. He sprinkles in a changeup, which Sims continues to improve, and a plus curveball that is right at home in a Braves' system that is stocked with elite curveballs. Outside of the bus crash, Sims has been quite durable with a pitcher's body built to be a workhorse. Sims is still working on the finer things like consistent arm slot, especially when working deep into games, but he's a hard worker who is very easy to like. He has projections that are a tick below Matt Wisler in that Wisler's realistic projection was a middle-of-the-rotation fixture who could start playoff games for a team. Sims high-end potential could take him in that territory. The lower end could see Sims fill out the bottom of the staff or move to the bullpen, where his fastball/curve combination could make him a dynamite reliever. He has been clocked with velocity in the 98-99 mph range, though that's unsustainable as a starter.

Despite the many prospects that the Braves have acquired since 2014, it's important to not forget about guys like Sims. He has the capability to be an excellent major league pitcher if he cleans up some of his issues and with his work ethic, I expect that if he can find a way, he'll do it.

Want more Random Prospect Sunday profiles?
Steve Rodriguez
Braxton Davidson
Kyle Kinman
...or see ALL of them.

Random Former Prospect Sunday - Jose Peraza

During the season, Sundays are set aside to take a look at a prospect at random, but with the minor league season over, I wasn't sure what to do for my Sunday article until this nugget of an idea came my way. How about we look at players who ranked in Baseball America's Top 100 while part of the Braves' organization, yet never appeared for the Braves? Over the next few months, I'll take a look at the prospects that were traded or simply faded away and just to keep up with my theme, I randomized the players.

Prospects can blind you.

Joel Auerbach/Getty Images

Jose Peraza did for me when he came up through the ranks. I saw the speed (back-to-back 60 steal years), high batting average (especially for his age), and grew immediately fond of him. In fact, this will be the 44th blog post at Walk-Off Walk that has mentioned Peraza so he's received a good deal of press from just me. I loved him so much that I ignored that for a leadoff hitter, he was swing-happy and completely dependent on a high batting average and speed to be at all effective in the in that role. No, that didn't matter to me. He was going to be a star.

And he still might be. However, my expectations have decreased and I don't think I'm alone in that.

Signed during the summer of 2010 out of Venezuela, Peraza made his professional debut the following year in the Dominican Summer League. His numbers really didn't capture anyone's attention at that point. The next year, however, some of us took notice. Splitting time between Danville and the Gulf Coast League, Peraza posted a triple slash of .296/.350/.374 in 2012. He swiped 25 bases, but remember that was only in 53 games. He was at this point an interesting prospect, but not a guy jockeying for position in the top 20 prospects.

That changed in 2013. While his triple slash was remarkably similar with a 12 point drop in overall OPS, he swiped 64 bases in 79 attempts while showing a decent eye (34 walks/64 K's). He also had a knack for using his speed to turn doubles into triples, picking up eight of them. When, in 2014, he showed that it wasn't a fluke by hitting .339 with 60 steals in 110 games between Lynchburg and Mississippi, it became clear that the Braves had a great prospect on their hands. He had moved to second base, where nobody was blocking him, and he sat atop many Top Braves Prospects rankings.

But that was also part of what blinded us. Yes, he was the top Braves prospect, but at the time, that didn't say much on its own. The system was short on impact talent so whatever talent was there was propped up by how desperate things were. It reminds me of when Kyle Davies arrived in the majors. He was a decent prospect and all, but his value was made higher by being one of the few starting prospects that looked potentially good as the Braves transitioned into the post Big Three-era.

I'm not saying Peraza will have a similar career to Davies, but as we overlooked Davies' weaknesses, we overlooked Peraza's and they were damning. After walking 34 times in 2013, he walked 34 times TOTAL the next two seasons. He found a way to hit .293 at two different Triple-A stops in 2015 and manage just a .316 OBP. If you want to relate that to the majors, since 1990, only eight players who received at least 500 plate appearances hit at least .290 with an OBP below .320 and each reached double digits in homeruns, something that seems unlikely to happen with Peraza.

Now, of course we tell ourselves that prospects will improve and mature and many times, they do. Peraza has such great bat control that he can put the ball in play at a high frequency and if counting stats attract your attention, he has the potential to post 200-hit seasons with strong stolen base numbers. But his likelihood of success with such limitations are low.

Fans grew upset when he was included in the Hector Olivera trade last July and I wondered why. The Braves had replaced Peraza on the Future Leadoff Hitter depth chart with a player with more dynamic ability in Mallex Smith while having a better all-around player in Ozhaino Albies as an impact middle infield prospect. But then I remembered...our perception of Peraza might not match the reality of the situation. In over 2000 plate appearances as a professional, Peraza has walked just 98 times. As long as he hits .300, that's acceptable (though frustrating). But if that average drops, we start having the debate on whether Peraza is a suitable major league starter.

That's not exactly the kind of debate we should have on a guy who was once considered the top prospect in the system, but again, that's not to say that Peraza is a bust. He's got plenty of time to establish himself as a contributing major league player and/or improve certain flaws in his game. It wasn't fair to him that we overranked him and labeled him as the "next big thing" when his skillset was so limited. But as the 2016 season approaches and Peraza is with his third team since this time last year, it's important to remember that its his limitations that make him so available. Teams love what skills he does have, but he's never going to rank as untouchable. The Braves and Dodgers proved that.

Previous Random Former Prospects...
Tom Redington
Dennis Burlingame
J.R. Graham
Elvis Andrus
Bobby Smith
Bubba Nelson
Neftali Feliz
Gorkys Hernandez
Matt Belisle
Matt McClendon

Reviewing Hart's Trades: The Hector Olivera Leap of Faith

The Braves were active in John Hart's season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.

With the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.

Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
Gattis for Foltynewicz and Ruiz
Hale for Briceno
Elander for Cahill and Lots of Cash
The Craig Kimbrel Trade
Callaspo for Uribe
Gosselin for Touki
KJ/Uribe for Whalen/Gant

The Trade
As part of a three-team trade, Braves trade Bronson Arroyo, Luis Avilan, Jim Johnson, Jose Peraza, Alex Wood, and cash to the Dodgers for Hector Olivera, Paco Rodriguez, Zachary Bird, and a 2016 draft choice (35th overall, but subject to change) from the Marlins, who also sent Mat Latos and Mike Morse to the Dodgers for Victor Araujo, Jeff Brigham, and Kevin Guzman. Yep, profiled that trade.

The Rationale

Scott Cunningham | Getty Images

Crushes die hard. Last winter, as Olivera worked out for a number of ballclubs, the Braves were a surprise team that was looking to invest big on the Cuban import. A .323/.407/.505 hitter in Cuba, Olivera was considered one of the best hitters left on the island before his defection. He had a silver medal in the Olympics and was part of the disappointing Cuban World Baseball Classic squad in 2009 that finished sixth.

The Braves pursued Olivera hard, but their offer wasn't close to the Dodgers' $62.5M offer over six years ($28M was a signing bonus). Olivera had some medical issues (blood disorder before his defection and a minor UCL tear), but was still considered a stout offensive player.

Like I said...old crushes die hard. The Braves wanted Olivera and considered him a future cog in their lineup. They appeared willing to make it happen and paid a steep price. Jose Peraza was the Braves' top prospect heading into 2015. His game had actually regressed since his 2013 season with Lynchburg. His walks percentage was cut in half and with no power to speak of, he was completely dependent on his bat control to get on base so that he could use his best weapon - his speed. But even his stolen base numbers had declined from 64 and 60 the previous two years to 36 in 2015. Injuries were a factor. The Braves saw a guy who had not advanced and with Jace Peterson a stopgap at second and Andrelton Simmons a fixture at short (right?), Peraza was considered a guy who while useful, was maybe not the impact prospect many had felt he was.

Alex Wood had been very good since arriving in the majors in 2013, but there were some concerns. His fastball velocity had declined (though he never brought much heat). His herky-jerky motion had always been a worry and his strikeouts had fell from nearly a quarter of all batters in 2014 to 18% at the time of the trade. His WHIP had reached 1.41. With a plethora of pitching prospects on the way, the Braves saw Wood as expendable.

The Dodgers also saw Olivera as expendable...at least when it came to winning a title with their bloated roster in 2015. With Justin Turner exceeding all expectations at third base and Corey Seager on the way (not to mention adding Peraza in this deal), the well-sought after Olivera felt more like an extra piece than one that would be a six-year starter. They may have also grew quickly tired of Olivera's hamstring and other concerns that kept him from making his debut with the Dodgers. Furthermore, they needed pitchers. While they had two of the top starters in baseball and a surprisingly durable Brett Anderson, the rest of the staff was unknown in the wake of Brandon McCarthy's early-season injury and Brandon Beachy's quick flameout shortly before the deadline. Adding both Wood and Latos solidified the staff while getting Johnson and Avilan was supposed to make the bullpen deeper. Johnson had been a great add for the Braves and had even filled in as closer due to Jason Grilli's injury, but his return to closer was short-lived. Avilan had went from surprising in 2012 to "how's he succeeding?" in 2013 to "ugh, he actually sucks" in 2014. He was closer to the better Avilan in 2015, but was prone to blow it and blow it big.

Back to Atlanta - they added a pair of pitchers in this deal with Bird and Paco. The latter would eventually need to go under the knife and we will have to wait until 2017 to see him pitch for the Braves. Good thing, too, because that 2017 team is going to be awesome (or so I hear). Bird is an athletic righty who is still raw. He's struggled with control, but has flashed strikeout potential.

Oh, yeah, the Marlins were in this deal. They shed some salary, got a few prospects, and gave the Braves a draft choice. Yay.

I almost forgot about Arroyo. I recently talked about how he came to the Braves. He's just a guy getting paid.

Short-Term Results
Olivera didn't impress in the minors, but when rosters expanded, he finally got a callup and...well, didn't impress that much in the majors either. Still rusty with the bat, Olivera looked damn near puzzled in the field. The Braves had hoped for a springboard September and got more questions than answers. Overall, he slashed .253/.310/.405 in 24 games and lost at-bats to Adonis Garcia.

On the farm, Bird was pushed to AA as the Braves are super aggressive with their prospects. He only started three games and struggled to throw strikes in each one. He was shut down after a 5-run, 5-walk two-inning outing against Mobile on August 13. He should be on schedule to resume his AA career when 2016 opens up.

The Dodgers acquired seven players in this deal and none of them were all that good. Dodgers did quickly pushed Wood to scrap his four-seamer and use his two-seamer along with more spiked curves. He got more grounders as a result, but didn't pitch any better. He appeared in one game in the NLDS and got lit up for four runs, including a three-run homer by Yoenis Cespedes which recently landed in Iowa. Avilan was used to get out lefties, which he does a good job against. He also appeared in the playoffs and retired all four batters he faced. Johnson went to hell in LA. He gave up three homers in 18.2 ING along with a ridiculous 32 hits. Now, he was unlucky to the most extreme degree, but that provided the Dodgers little solace. Peraza appeared in seven games, but hamstring troubles sidelined him ahead of the playoffs. He was the second youngest player in the NL last season.

I don't really care about the other players in this deal because they don't relate to the Braves much at all.

Long-Term Outlook
I know I call this series John Hart's trades, but this was John Coppolella's big money gamble. Even if the Braves were going to move Wood and/or Peraza regardless, doing so for Olivera took a lot of faith. While every scouting report has said that Olivera has the bat to be a productive major leaguer, scouting reports can and have been wrong.

The deal took a hit by the news that Olivera was moving to the outfield next season. Solidifying third base added value to this trade as finding plus-production at third base is not an easy task. Only a half-dozen qualified third baseman had a 120 or better RC+ in each of the last three seasons. The number isn't that different for left field, but it's considered an easier position to formulate a productive platoon than third base. Olivera's move to the outfield caused many, including myself, to re-question this deal and ask this question - just how wrong were the Braves about Olivera? If they were wrong that he could play a competent third base, are they wrong on his hitting?

Bird is a good lottery ticket. His fastball/slider suggests an eventual move to the bullpen, but if he can get either his change or curve to be a true #3 pitch, he could remain in the picture at starter as a bottom-of-the-rotation guy with the chance to progress a bit more. As for Paco, if healthy in 2017, he's a nice weapon. When he was at his best in 2013, he had an 82 cFIP. On a scale of 100, an 82 is 18% better than the league average and the exact mark that Noah Syndergaard had this year. However, he's only appeared in 37 games in the majors since. If healthy and back to his 10 K/9, 50% groundball form, he'll be a weapon through 2019, the final year of team control.

As an aside, it's difficult to preview the #35th overall pick and for that matter, I've seen others call it the #34th. Teams that sign players who were offered a qualified offer could lose their first round pick, which would make this selection even higher. For funsies, here's a list of selected players selected from #30-#35 over the last five years: Braxton Davidson, Jason Hursh, Aaron Judge, Brian Johnson, and Kevin Plawecki.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers will enter 2016 with Avilan, Peraza, and Wood and room for all three on their roster. The results immediately after the trade didn't benefit them, but while Avilan might be serviceable enough (the Dodgers could non-tender him), Peraza and Wood each could play a big role on the next Dodgers team. Or they could be trade bait.

This epic trade ultimately looks less important as we move toward the Hot Stove season just a few months later. The Dodgers made the playoffs, but lost to the Mets. The Braves were already a sinking ship and losing Wood only prompted them to give a guy like Ryan Weber a look. Peraza could have been useful as an alternative to Peterson, but with Peraza failing to advance as a player, maybe the best thing was to cut bait while his value was high. Olivera was going to be the third baseman, but he's not a third baseman. Paco's hurt even before he pitches.

Some call this deal stupid. I wouldn't go that far, but I remain unconvinced that it was the right deal for the Braves. However, if Olivera hits .285/.340/.480 next season, I'll be a bit more on board with the gamble.

Random Prospect Sunday - Mallex Smith

When I reviewed the trade that sent outfielder Justin Upton to San Diego, I wrote this about outfielder Mallex Smith.

"There are some who love him, some who aren't super impressed. I'm part of the latter group. I acknowledge he's a decent enough prospect and might be a better player than I right now feel he's capable of."

Stacy Revere | Getty Images Sport

I later came around on him a little to rank him 11th in my preseason Top 30 Prospects, but again, I stressed that I wasn't sold on Smith because, "will he hit enough?" He fell to #12 once the Matt Wisler trade was announced shortly before the season began.

By midseason, I had pushed Mallex into the Top 10 at #9, jumping past Tyrell Jenkins and Braxton Davidson in the process. I kept his grade at a B-, but added that I nearly graded him a B. The more this season progresses, the more I realize I probably should have. Suddenly, I had opened my eyes to the guy the Braves knew they had acquired. A player who made Jose Peraza's leadoff ability look below-average. A guy who had the speed to prompt bloggers to ponder if the Braves had the next Billy Hamilton. The Braves had acquired the guy who - hopefully - will be their long-term option in center field.

Smith was born in Tallahassee, Florida on May 6, 1993. The Braves were in Denver that day, playing their first-ever game against the expansion Rockies. John Smoltz was staked to a 5-2 lead against former Braves prospect David Nied before the Braves manhandled the Rockies bullpen to turn the game into a 13-3 route and even their record at 15-15. Both David Justice and Ron Gant homered and drove in 4. The Braves would never be .500 again that season.

Immediately a prospect who excelled at baseball, Smith graduated from Rickards High School in 2011. The school has never produced a major leaguer, though football players such as Corey Fuller and William Gay are some of the alumni. So is T-Pain. I assume that's a somebody.

The Milwaukee Brewers came calling after making Smith a 13th round selection, but Mallex wasn't won over by Bernie Brewer playing on a slide. He spurned an offer from Florida State to attend Santa Fe Community College. The biggest reason was simple. Mallex wanted to be eligible to be drafted again the following year and had he attended a four-year school, he wouldn't have. The gamble paid off as Smith showed his skill set and the Padres selected Smith in the 5th round with the 165th overall pick. He signed for $255K.

Once the 19 year-old signed, he headed to the Padres' Arizona Summer League, which was age appropriate for him. He hit an impressive .344 over two months of action before a brief move to Short-Season A ball with a bunch of college draftees and veterans of previous minor league seasons. He didn't get many hits over the ten-game run, but did walk a good deal. On the season, he slashed .305/.366/.383 with a pair of homers, 17 steals, and eleven walks in 35 games. All in all, it was an impressive first season. The following year with Fort Wayne, Rome's equivalent in the Padres system, we saw some good things from Smith (11.6% walk rate, 64 steals) and some underwhelming things (.262 average, .078 ISO). The former was probably a result of a .318 BABIP.

In 2014, Smith would break out in a big way. Referred to as minor league's fastest baserunner, Smith spent the first two months of the season back in Fort Wayne before being promoted to Lake Elsinore in the California League, San Diego's top A-league team. His numbers only improved, though it's worth adding that the California League is a hitter's league so Smith's numbers would be expected to improve. He finished the final stretch of the season with his only five homers of the year, which nearly matched what he had done in the previous 210 games before joining the Storm. He also swiped 40 bases with the aid of a .414 OBP. Add that with his Fort Wayne numbers and Smith finished the year with a healthy .310/.403/.432 slash, a minor league high 88 steals, and 69 walks to go with 103 K's. It was a big, big year that earned Smith some considerably recognition. The Padres rewarded Smith with a trip to the Arizona Fall League and he excelled there as well. He reached base at a .408 clip. Baseball America crowned him the #16 prospect in what was a stout Padres system and he was rated the Fastest Baserunner in the in the Midwest League.

Smith was probably being looked at as the center fielder of the future who would be the guy to take over from players like Will Venable and, ironically enough, Cameron Maybin. That came to a close in December when the trade was announced. With only Melvin Upton Jr. in the way, Mallex's road to the majors was significantly shortened. A later deal to exchange Melvin for Maybin didn't seem like it would change that, though Maybin showed what he could accomplish if he was able to stay healthy for once.

Once 2015 opened, he crushed Southern League pitchers to the tune of .340/.418/.413, notably reaching in all but seven of the 56 games he received a plate appearance in. He added 23 steals and earned a promotion to Gwinnett in late June. He struggled to get going, but once he adjusted, the results have been on the level we have grown to accept from Smith since he became a professional. In 27 games since July 17, Smith has slashed .313/.363/.383 with 18 steals in 21 attempts.

As for the book on Smith, it starts with the speed factor. When you have an even 200 bases since the beginning of 2013, it should perk up your interest in quick fashion. Some have graded Smith's speed as an 80. That's out of a scouting scale that runs 20 to 80. It's ultra elite for anyone to ever reach 80, but Smith's speed is deserving of it. The other thing that stands out is that, unlike Peraza who was ultimately dealt, Smith knows how to take a walk. It has led him to a .379 career OBP on the heels of a .294 batting average and 10.7 BB%. That is the kind of production that you get excited about from the leadoff spot even without factoring in the speed. His pop won't impress, though it's better against right-handed pitchers historically than same-hand guys. With that in mind, he's never struggled to hit lefties. Outside of a run with Lake Elsinore, his ISO has remained below .100. So, the chances of Smith reaching an .800 OPS is minimal at best. Defensively, I've never seen any glowing reports about his abilities. The speed is clearly there, but he needs to refine things and a spring training apprenticing under Michael Bourn might help turn that into a reality.

There is a lot to be excited about when it comes to Smith. The speed stands out the most, but his overall game profiles as not just a fast leadoff hitter, but a good one. He's still rough around the edges and needs to improve his stolen base percentage along with better results in center field, but considering he just turned 22 last May, that imperfect status is what you expect out of a player. He might not get a chance to show his skills in major league games until next summer to refine his game and extend arbitration out a year, but once it does happen, he could be the star we once dreamed Rafael Furcal would become in the leadoff spot.

For an extended six minute look at Smith...with shaky cam footage worthy of a J.J. Abrams movie at times, see this video.


More Random Prospects
Fernando Miranda
Stephen Gaylor
Tyrell Jenkins

Once a Brave, Always a Brave - NL West

This week's return to Once a Brave focuses on a division with a lot of ex-Braves. The Braves have completed two deals with the D'Backs since March, two with the Dodgers since May, one with the Rockies, and a pair of pretty big deals with the Padres. Therefore, we have a lot of NL West guys to check in on. As usual, this list is not exhaustive and if you catch a player I missed, feel free to let me know.

Arizona Diamondbacks
P Randall Delgado - No longer even a consideration to start, Delgado just recently went to the DL with a sprained ankle. Before that, he had a 2.76 ERA, though other metrics aren't as impressed (3.71 SIERA).

C Gerald Laird - He played in one game this before hitting the DL because of his back. Five months later, he's still there.

C Jarrod Saltalamacchia - This is Salty's second stop this year after the Marlins showed him the door. He has an on-again, off-again relationship with the Mendoza Line since coming to Arizona which, amazingly, is an improvement. He's just 30 years old.

2B Philip Gosselin - He remains on the shelf, though I imagine a rehab stint is coming soonish.

SS Nick Ahmed - It's astounding that the Diamondbacks, who have a good chance of competing for a playoff spot, are sticking with Ahmed at short. But hey, he did go 4-for-4 yesterday to increase his OBP from .280 to .289. In Arizona's defense, Ahmed is a pretty stout defender at shortstop.

3B Brandon Drury (AAA) - Of all the guys the Braves traded to the Diamondbacks two years ago, Drury was the guy I immediately wished could have stayed with Atlanta. Yes, I was more okay with getting rid of Martin Prado than Drury. On the year, Drury is hitting around .300 with just four homeruns while moving from AA to AAA more than a month ago. He's coming off a .299 season with 23 HR.

Colorado Rockies
P Yohan Flande - The Dominican lefty pitched for three years in the Braves system and logged 95 games with the organization - all but one with Gwinnett - and during the 2012 spring training, Flande looked like he might be first in line to fill the void created by Jonny Venters' injuries. However, the Braves sent him back to Gwinnett. That's about as close as he ever came to pitching for the Braves. He's appeared in 25 games over the last two seasons, including a dozen starts, for the Rockies and hasn't been all that bad (3.90 FIP).

P David Hale - I never liked Hale much as a Brave, but I still wouldn't wish a groin strain on him, but that's why he hit the DL after his last outing. That outing was a win in relief. Against the Braves. Yeah, whatever. Hale recently stunk in a rehab start and has a 5.69 ERA this season for the Rox.

P Jair Jurrjens (AAA) - Yep, he's still around and he has been putrid this season for Albuquerque (6.68 ERA in 14 games, 13 starts). He turns 30 next January, but the the 2011 All-Star has only thrown 65 innings in the majors since the end of 2011. He's got a 7.20 ERA when he has been used.

P Gus Schlosser (AA) - Schlosser has had such an interesting career. He was so good in 2013 and parleyed that into a good run the following spring to earn a spot in the pen. The results weren't all that pretty...in fact, they were pretty bad, but Schlosser did accomplish something kinda cool. He got a hit in his only plate appearance. He was non-tendered after the year for "reasons," but the Braves snatched him back up before trading him with Hale to the Rockies. Love ya, Gus!

Los Angeles Dodgers
P Bronson Arroyo - Is there some kind of record for number of teams whose DL's a player has been on in one year?

P Luis Avilan  - He's still waiting to make his first appearance. His last outing with the Braves was against the Orioles when he surrendered an extra-innings walk-off homer.

P Brandon Beachy (AAA) - It was a cool story that Beachy made it back, but after two starts, he was DFA'd as a result of the moves the Dodgers made. He decided to stick around the Dodgers' system.

P Trevor Cahill (AAA) - Did the Dodgers sign every ex-Brave? Cahill stunk and is still getting a decent amount from the Braves to be awful in AAA. Aces!

P Caleb Dirks (AA) - Don't look now, but the Juan Uribe trade may ultimately hurt a little. Dirks, who was picked up in the 15th round last year, started this year in Rome and has added time with Carolina, Rancho Cucamonga, and most recently - Tulsa. His ERA is under 1.00 for the year with well over a K an inning.

P Juan Jaime (AA) - Not news: Jaime can't stop walking people.

P Jim Johnson - In his first game, Johnson did exactly what he did in his final game with the Braves. He gave up a run. A home run to be exact which led to the Angels tying the game up in the 8th. Starting the game for the Angels was Cory Rasmus. Former Braves everywhere!

P Eric Stults (AA) - On the bright side, Stults, who joined the Dodgers as a AA pitcher, had made it back to AAA. I don't think I used "bright side" correctly. Unfortunately, because Beachy came back to AAA, Stults got pushed back to AA. Whole world is unfair.

P Ian Thomas (AAA) - The former independent league pitcher got his first major league start with the Dodgers earlier this year. He's been up a couple of times for the Dodgers, but mostly has been pretty bad in Oklahoma City.

P Alex Wood - On the night Jimmy Rollins returns to Philly, there won't be much of a spotlight on Wood, but he'll make his Dodgers debut against the Phils tonight. Former Brave Jeff Francoeur has had some luck against Wood in his career.

2B Jose Peraza - The former Braves top prospect has already added a homerun during his Dodgers organization run, his fourth overall of the year. He had five coming into this year. It's going to be interesting to see if Peraza sticks with the Dodgers long-term. With Howie Kendrick and Rollins free agents, the Dodgers could consider a Peraza/Corey Seager combo up the middle.

3B Alberto Callaspo - How does this guy stick around? He's OPS'd .609 since the trade.

San Francisco Giants
P Tommy Hanson (AAA) - Yep, he's around. In fact, there might be a game this year where Jurrjens and Hanson face one another. It's like the "What If" Bowl. Or maybe the "remember when these guys were our future?" Of course, that's under the belief Hanson doesn't get cut beforehand because he has been lit up in his first five starts with Sacramento.

P Tim Hudson - His back or his shoulder or his toe hurts so he's on the DL because it's fun to blatantly use the disabled list as a place to stick veterans when you don't have room for them. He wasn't that good before the "injury" and will retire at the end of the year.

IF Brandon Hicks (AAA) - A former 3rd rounder by the Braves out of Texas A&M, Hicks made it to the majors in 2010-11 with the Braves, but was extra-strength bad in a small amount of at-bats. After a stint in Oakland, he had a small run last year before reality set in. He's missed most of this year, but recently made it back to the active roster.

OF Gregor Blanco - He just keeps plugging along and has kept his OPS close to .800 this year. Pretty good year for a guy who was one traded for Rick Ankiel and Kyle Farnsworth.

San Diego Padres
P Craig Kimbrel - His strikeout numbers are a little down (3.5% from last year) and a .289 BABIP has made him a little more hittable than usual. Still, while this could easily go down as his worst season, he's posted a 2.22 SIERA and 2.49 xFIP. I'd say that's still pretty good.

P Aaron Northcraft (AAA) - Also known as half of what the Padres got for Jace Peterson, Mallex Smith, Dustin Peterson, and Max Fried. Northcraft once threw a seven-inning no-hitter for the Lynchburg Hillcats in 2012, but never seemed to be a guy the Braves consider a real player in their system. He started this year in El Paso and stunk. A trip back to AA was successful, but he's been hit hard in his return to El Paso. He won't give up a lot of homers even in the Pacific Coast League due to his downward movement, but that won't stop hitters from reaching.

IF Ramiro Pena (AAA) - He's been an everyday player in El Paso where he has hit .312 this season while logging time at three infield positions. Because San Diego is who they are, Pena can't find a spot on the roster that has graciously given 264 PA to Alexi Amarista and his magical .576 OPS.

OF Justin Upton - He got off to a good start, but his overall numbers are pretty sad - even though he has been great at swiping bases. Upton turns 28 this month and has a good chance to enter free agency with his second sub-.800 OPS in the last four years. His free agency case will be interesting to watch in case someone overspends for potential over results. Amazingly, he's been great at Petco (.911 OPS) and awful on the road.

OF Melvin Upton Jr. - He's hitting better with the Padres than he ever did with the Braves. He's hitting .218. That said, getting his walk rate back to his days with the Rays has upped his OBP over .300 for the first time since 2011. He's been worth 0.6 fWAR this year. His fWAR with the Braves - 0.3. Slacker.