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Showing posts with label Biddle. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Biddle. Show all posts

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: What a Week It Was!

It was a very eventful week for the Atlanta Braves' system so no dilly-dallying. Let's dive in.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover July 10 to July 17. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

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Atlanta
Activated: Sean Rodriguez...From a possibility to miss the season to making his Braves debut on July 17. Say what you will about the Braves, but their players don't seem to miss as much time as other teams. Much has been made about Sean-Rod's brief and ultimately unproductive rehab stint for the Braves as he went 3-for-39 with 12 Ks. But don't get caught i[ in the stats too much when it comes to rehab stints. It's all about timing and the Braves likely felt his timing was back - plus he didn't have much time left available to rehab. Moving on, where does Rodriguez fit in? When originally signed, Rodriguez looked like a possibility to share time at second base and third base - along with filling in elsewhere as needed. The Braves now have Brandon Phillips at second base and either Freddie Freeman or Johan Camargo available to play third base. Regardless, Rodriguez should be used frequently when a left-hander is on the mound (.332 wOBA, 111 wRC+ against LHP the last three years). That could mean playing third base like he did yesterday evening or spelling Nick Markakis, who hasn't hit lefties much at all over the last two-and-a-half seasons. Rodriguez is a great player to have on your bench for what he brings to the team and fortunately, this version of the Braves can use him properly as previous year's teams would have overexposed him from playing him too often.

Activated: Danny Santana...During his three-game rehab stint, Santana enjoyed his stay with Gwinnett. In the second game, he went a spectacular 5-for-5 with a double and a steal. He added two more hits the next day before returning to the Braves. Santana has been better with the Braves than he was with the Twins, but much of that is due to Santana being awful with Minnesota to open the season. Santana is a decent enough fit for the Braves, though. He's a switch-hit bat who can play a number of positions and provides a little bit of a speed factor off the bench. Plus, for fans of the Braves, it helps that his name isn't Emilio Bonifacio.

Transferred from 10-day DL to 60-day DL: Armando Rivero (strained right shoulder)...We haven't heard from the hard-throwing righty all year. Some of this may be gamesmanship, but Rivero has been stuck on the DL since early this spring and there has been almost nothing written about it. No ramping up for a rehab stint. No updates on progress. Nothing. Don't plan on seeing Rivero this season.

DL: Jason Motte (back strain)...The Braves have been fortunate this year with a number of players who've had results that were much more favorable than their metrics. Motte is one of those players. With a 3.76 ERA over 31 games, one might say he's been serviceable. When you add in his 18% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate, 17% HR/FB rate, and 30% hard-hit ball rate...you start to get concerned when you see him get the call from Brian Snitker. And to be honest, Motte has been this guy ever since Tommy John surgery took him out of commission in 2013 while with the Cardinals. In the three years before 2017, spent with three different teams, Motte had an 18% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate, a 12% HR/FB rate, and a 35% hard-hit ball rate. His ERA during that time was 60 points higher. The smart money is on Motte's ERA getting that high again.

Gwinnett
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Promoted from Mississippi: Ronald Acuna (#1)...This one was a biggy. Acuna began the year in Florida and after a month of doing well (but not overwhelming awesome), he received a bit of a surprising promotion. He followed that up by destroying the Southern League to the tune of .326/.374/.520. At the ripe old age of 19, he was a Double-A All-Star and if you weren't already paying attention, he put a show on in batting practice at the Futures Game and in the field during the game. Acuna only played 40 games in Low-A last year and now, he could be an injury away from being called up to start in the Show. Not one to rest on his laurels, Acuna went 6-for-21 over his first five games at Triple-A with two doubles and a pair of home runs. It's easy to overhype prospects, but Acuna keeps reminding us that occasionally, the prospect deserves the hype.

Rehab: Arodys Vizcaino...Placed on the DL last week with an index finger strain, Vizcaino's rehab assignment is not planned to last long. He threw a perfect inning to start Monday's game and struck out one. Returning to Atlanta healthy and productive won't just help the Braves, but also revisit some early July rumors about Vizcaino being a target for contending teams. Vizcaino has closer experience, the ability to reach triple digits on the gun, and has great composure on the mound. Surely someone will be interested in him provided he's good to go. Of course, Atlanta might not be anxious to trade him depending on how the next week goes.

Activated: Caleb Dirks (#40)...Dirks hasn't been as lights-out as he was before this season. His 3.59 FIP would be a new full-season high and he's already surrendered four homers this season after giving up just seven over three seasons. That said, he's still carrying a 29% strikeout rate and a 8% walk rate and that's very impressive. His activation ends a nearly month-long stay on the DL. It was just his second trip to the DL since joining the organization following the 2014 draft. Dirks has routinely posted very solid numbers in the past and could be in line for a shot at the bigs very soon.

Recalled and Optioned: Jason Hursh (#42)...Five times. That's how many times Hursh has been optioned to the minors this season. His latest call-up of three days wasn't even the shortest one of 2017 for the righty. All the while, he's thrown 5.2 innings while allowing one run, two unintentional walks, and four Ks while a member of the Braves bullpen. He also appeared in 23 games between Gwinnett and Mississippi with five saves and is flowing with a 3.11 ERA and a similar FIP as well. Personally, I would like a much longer look for Hursh. It's difficult to know which of these borderline prospects are keepers with so little time to impress before being passed over for higher-rated prospects. They need to get their chance and show something very quickly. Hursh has done well when called upon, but can't seem to stay in the majors long enough to establish himself. The longer this continues, the more likely it is for Hursh to get lost in the shuffle.

Optioned: Micah Johnson...With Johnson healthy, but no spot for him in the majors, he was optioned to Gwinnett. Acquired in a trade in mid-January with the Dodgers, Johnson was on his way to make the roster this spring before a fractured left wrist on a dive took him out of the competition. He's appeared nine times since beginning his rehab stint and has looked fairly good (11-for-31, 2B, 3 BB, 8 K, 5 SB). A former second baseman, Johnson has only played the outfield this season. As the Braves cycle Acuna all over the outfield, Johnson will likely be the guy playing center when Acuna isn't.

Optioned: Jace Peterson...For the third time this season, the Braves option Peterson to the minors. He's been tremendous with Gwinnett so they are happy to have him back. His most recent appearance in the majors includes three games as a pinch-hitter. He made the final one a memorable one, smacking a ball into the Chop House for his first homer since last August 21. That one was pretty memorable, too, as it was a walk-off bomb off Shawn Kelley to beat the Nationals. Despite his mammoth homer on Saturday, he just hasn't done enough to justify a spot in the majors. He's a useful player when an injury opens a spot as he can play all over, but he's earned an AAAA label right now.

Outrighted and traded: Chaz Roe...It's bad enough to be waived and have no teams claim you. But Roe's frustrations grew Monday night as he was charged with three runs as the Braves wasted an excellent Lucas Sims non-start (6 ING, 3 ER, 11 Ks in relief of Vizcaino). Roe broke camp with the team this spring largely because he was out-of-options. After a trio of ugly appearances, he landed on the DL with a lat strain. He made four appearances in the minors over two rehab stints (a flare-up stopped his rehab once), but the Braves passed on bringing back to Atlanta. (Update...today saw Roe traded to Tampa for cash.)

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Tyler Neslony (#46)...A ninth rounder drafted largely because the Braves needed to cut some corners to sign higher-rated prospects, Neslony was a surprising force at the plate for the Fire Frogs. He slashed .309/.378/.442. Included was an attempt to teach the former Texas Tech star first base. That didn't go so hot (9 errors in less than 200 innings), but Neslony will continue to move up the ladder. To this point, Neslony has shown a knack for hitting righties (.310/.377/.457) and could develop into a platoon bat who can play the outfield corners and the occasional first base. He's off to a 4-for-16 start in Double-A with a double, a walk, and two strikeouts since the promotion. He's played only outfield so far.

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Promoted from Florida: Austin Riley (#13)...A lot of the high-profile promotions last week made sense, but Riley's was a bit confusing. He wasn't exactly lighting it up at Florida and, at 20-years-old, was still young for the level. Nevertheless, Atlanta promoted the strong third baseman for a trial-by-fire in the Southern League. With Florida, Riley was hitting .252/.310/.408 with a dozen homers. He's yet to show improved plate discipline, though he did shave off 5% off his strikeout rate from last season. His ISO was also down 50 points so there's that. Honestly, this is the one promotion I absolutely don't understand. Riley's first five games included four hits, including a home run last night, and two walks along with five K's.

Promoted from Florida: Jacob Webb...Needing a new challenge, Webb heads up to the Southern League. In 22 games with Florida this year, Webb K'd 48 in 41.1 innings with a 1.74 ERA. For Webb, he's making up for lost time. After being plucked in the 18th round all the way back in 2014, Webb was solid in 33.2 innings in the GCL. He was a rising prospect before feeling a pop in his elbow on the first day of minor league spring training in 2015. After the dreaded TJS, Webb returned in 2016 to throw 13 innings before being unleashed this season. For more on Webb, check out my Random Prospect Sunday column from early March.

Demoted from Gwinnett: Enrique Burgos...Gwinnett has a blog that regularly gives updates on the team. Last week, they profiled Burgos. Acquired the same day the Braves picked up Matt Adams, Burgos was struggling in the Arizona system. However, he's been nothing but great with Gwinnett. In 13 games, he's allowed a single run in 14 innings. For that matter, he's only allowed three hits. Add in the seven walks and 17 strikeouts and you have a reliever who is flourishing. So why the demotion? The Gwinnett bullpen is getting quite full with veterans.

Demoted from Gwinnett: Stephen Gaylor...This is the eleventh Transaction Tuesday I've done this season and Gaylor has shown up four times. Such is the life of organizational depth. Gaylor has split 30 games between Double-A and Triple-A and actually has slightly better numbers in Triple-A. His value to the Braves is in his defense, speed, and the fact the Braves trust him to just do his job no matter how much they jerk him around. These guys don't get a lot of love in prospect rankings, but they serve a purpose for the organization.

DL: Jesse Biddle (#47)...The former top Phillies prospect has been quietly solid for the M-Braves. Over 27 games, all out of the pen, Biddle has struck out a quarter of all batters while displaying the best control of his career. No word on what pushed him to the DL. He did reach 49.2 innings in fairly quick order. If he doesn't miss much time - or isn't on too restrictive of an innings limit - Biddle could be in line for a promotion if the Braves are so inclined.

DL: Bradley Roney...On-and-off the DL. That's been Roney's season. The good news is that he's striking out a ton of batters for Mississippi. And I mean a ton. 35.3%. Of course, with Roney, it always comes down to the but. In this case, it's a "but, he's also walked 17%." Now 24-years-old, Roney has logged just 18 total games this year - 15 in Double-A. He has yet to show any significant advancement. You can't strike out everyone and you certainly can't get by walking every fifth batter.

Florida
Promoted from Rome: Justin Ellison...A toolsy 12th rounder back in 2015, Ellison was easy to forget about heading into 2017. Last year, his first above rookie-level, the outfielder batted .247/.304/.370 while showing decent range and good speed (18 steals). However, the triple slash and presence of guys higher on the depth chart kept him in Rome to open this season. His 45-game run in Rome was hardly noteworthy and he was in the midst of some struggles at the time of his promotion, but in his defense, he did flash some strong overall numbers against righties (.271/.321/.481) and was humming before the All-Star Break stopped his mojo. Ellison has worked to cut down on his swing, but it's still long and with a pronounced uppercut. There are some qualities here that deserve second and third looks, though. He's a project, but with plus athletism already in his toolbag.

Promoted from Rome: Brandon White...With back-to-back picks, the Braves selected a pair of Brandon White's. This particular one is the 12th-round variation. The 13th-round one was cut and last played for Southern Illinois in the Frontier League. A righty out of Lander University in South Carolina, Brandon Steven White was solid for Danville last year and so far this season, he's built on that success while serving as Rome's closer. His ten saves is five more than second place in the organization. He also struck out nearly a batter an inning and showed solid control. In his first outing with Florida, he surrendered a solo home run and struck out two over a pair of frames.

Demoted from Mississippi: Andrew Daniel...Signed near the end of June, Daniel went 2-for-21 with Mississippi, but his demotion was about the guy he effectively replaces in the Florida lineup - Austin Riley. After a good debut in the Pioneer League back in 2014, Daniel hasn't shown much offense since. He'll try to change that with Florida.

Promoted to Mississippi and Demoted Back: Junior Rincon...Speaking of recent signees, Rincon was part of this column last week. He made one appearance during a stay in the Southern League and allowed a run in one inning. His only outing with Florida, which came before the promotion, saw Rincon surrendered three runs over 1.2 ING.

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Ryan Schlosser...Ryan Thomas Schlosser is the oldest-looking 21-year-old I have ever seen. A 32nd rounder a year ago, Schlosser was used as a closer with the GCL squad before a late-season promotion to Danville. He started this year with the APPY club and looked decent enough in six games before this promotion. Schlosser is a sinker baller we are still trying to get a good handle on because we haven't seen much out of the big kid from the small college. I will say this - he's a fun guy. Danville recently did a fidget spinner giveaway and he traded a bat to a kid for one of them.

Promoted from Danville: Izzy Wilson (#41)...Is there a faster outfield in the minors than Cristian Pache, Randy Ventura, and Izzy Wilson? Possibly, but these guys are flyers. Izzy came onto the scene with a big GCL campaign in 2015 where he belted ten homers in just 48 games. He also walked a bunch - along with striking out a whole lot. A lot was hoped for when the 2016 season opened for Danville, but Wilson was marred in a season-long slump that ended with a .591 OPS and just two homers. A return assignment was given to Wilson and he did not disappoint. He continued to strike out a lot but got on base at a .338 clip with a nearly .300 ISO over 17 games. The Braves took pity on the Appalachian League pitchers and brought Wilson to Rome. Four games in, he's struck out seven times. He's also doubled and swiped a pair of bases. Wilson is a fun prospect because there is a lot here to like. Can he put it together enough to be a Top-30 or Top-20 prospect for the Braves? He'll have to clean up his game (career .215 hitter so far with 129 K's in 107 games), but the power and speed combination - along with good defense - should keep Wilson in the discussion.

Danville
Promoted from GCL: Walter Borkovich...Undrafted out of Michigan State, Borkovich was a four-year performer for the Spartans. He was a control artist who didn't get many strikeouts while in school, which predictably didn't grab much draft attention. Signing with the Braves after the draft, Borkovich appeared twice in the GCL and tossed four scoreless innings. His first outing in Danville resulted in his first professional win as he went 2.2 scoreless innings with 4 Ks. He's not a big prospect by any means, but Borkovich was clocked in the mid-90's in college so he's not just throwing junk up there. He didn't do enough to get drafted, but the Braves have a knack for finding undrafted kids and turning them into something useful.

Promoted from GCL: Jasseel De La Cruz...A late addition to the 2014-15 signing class, Cruz struggled in 2015 before shaving off three-and-a-half runs off his ERA last year in a second stint in the DSL. His success warranted a promotion to the Gulf Coast League to finish 2016 and he was dominant with 15 scoreless innings, four hits allowed, a walk, and 12 Ks. It's a bit surprising he returned to GCL to open this season, but there was a method to Atlanta's madness. They wanted to change him over to a starter and over four starts, Cruz had a 1.89 ERA. Atlanta ran out of reasons to keep him in the GCL and he heads to Danville. Cruz could be a guy who climbs up the prospect ladder with some strong numbers in Danville.

Promoted from GCL: Kevin Maitan (#4)...Well, that was quick. After just nine games in the GCL, the Braves send the 17-year-old switch-hitter to Danville to continue his professional career. Did we learn anything in the GCL? Well, Maitan did strike out ten times in 37 PA. That's not great. He also reached base 13 times, which is pretty good for the first nine games of your career. Through two games in Danville, Maitan is 2-for-8 with 3 Ks. He's also mercifully moved Derian Cruz over to second base, which might be a better spot for the 2015-16 top signee. Between the two, the Braves have spent $6.25M. They'll gladly spend more if they progress to the majors - especially with Maitan, who is one of those "the sky is the limit" players.

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Promoted from GCL: Drew Waters (#22)...Maitan got nine games in the GCL - Waters received 14. Regardless, the do-everything outfielder was explosive, hitting .347/.448/.571 with three doubles, a triple, and two home runs. He stole a pair of bases and walked seven times. Not too shabby for the switch-hitting prospect. He added three more hits, including a double, in his two-game run with the D-Braves so far. Our own Stephen Tolbert is convinced Waters will soon be the Braves' best outfield prospect once Acuna graduates to the majors. So far, he looks right on.

GCL
Demoted from Danville: Gilbert Suarez...Roster spots were needed and Suarez returns to the GCL, where he's spent the two last two years following his 18th round selection back in 2015. Suarez was excellent for GCL a year ago with only two earned runs in 23.2 ING but was absolutely lit up in six games with Danville. As a team, the D-Braves have allowed 15 home runs. Four have come on pitches from Suarez. His ERA was 12.60 in 10 innings. So, this wasn't just a roster numbers thing in regards to Suarez. The righty came into professional baseball with a low-90's fastball, a good-looking curve, and what may have been a changeup. But in his third year, his inability to figure out the APPY League is troubling. Worse, his first game back in the GCL didn't go so hot as he was saddled with two earned runs in an inning and a third - tying the amount of ER he gave up in 23.2 innings last year.

Demoted from Danville: Ramon Taveras...Just promoted, Tavarez returns to the GCL without toeing the mound for the D-Braves. This is his fourth year of professional ball and he's yet to appear in a game for Atlanta's top rookie-league team - let alone progress into A-ball. Nothing really stands out about his numbers. He's been mostly a reliever and not a very successful one. At this rate, it would be shocking to see Taveras in 2018 for the Braves unless he starts to build some momentum quick.

DSL
All quiet on the Dominican front.

Monday, May 29, 2017

Prepping for the Trade Deadline: Part 2

(Written by Ryan Cothran, a contributor at Walk-Off Walk for the last few weeks. Previous columns by Cothran include one on BABIP, the bullpen, and reviewing the Braves' buy-low philosophy on Tommy John survivors. The first part of this series detailed possible fixes for the team should there be trades over the next couple of months. Remember to follow Ryan on Twitter.)

Last year, while writing for Tomahawk Take, I wrote a piece regarding organizational surplus and I found it a very enlightening exercise to help target surplus pieces in the farm to trade.

The term “Pipeline” rings true here: Where there’s a bulge in the pipe ready to burst, that’s where there’s surplus. Last year, the biggest bulge in the pipe was in back-end RHP starters...12 of them to be exact. I discussed that Coppy could trade 2-3 of the surplus and not think twice about it. He traded 5! And 2 more are no longer in the organization.

So, I completed the exercise of identifying the surplus talent inside the 2017 organization to navigate and find a few areas that the Atlanta Braves could use for trades without sacrificing the future of the farm system.

The problem with this exercise is that prospects are just that – the prospects of a forecasted future – and are therefore unpredictable. The player one chooses to keep might become a career Minor Leaguer while the player traded becomes a perennial All-Star. Dealing prospects is always a risk.

So, let’s look at the organizational depth chart, shall we? I listed most players who, at current projections, could be useful major league ballplayers at some capacity. Albeit, this is an incomplete list and even being the author, I understand that.

Most of the international prospects from last year are not listed here so just bear with the process.  It is not often that they are included in trades at their ages anyway.

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Frontline (#1-2 ceiling) RH Starting Pitchers
Frontline (#1-2 ceiling) LH Starting Pitchers

Mid-Back Rotation (3-5 ceiling) RH Starting Pitchers
Sanchez | By Jeff Morris. Follow @AtlBravesJeff
Mid-Back Rotation (3-5 ceiling) LH Starting Pitchers
Catchers
First Base
By Jeff Morris. Follow @AtlBravesJeff
Second Base
Third Base
Shortstop
Outfield
Now...after digesting that list, you’ll see that some depth charts are longer than others, but remember that pitching depth and outfield depth will naturally be larger as both require more players than, for example, first base.

But it’s not just the quantity, rather it’s the developmental level as well. If many are on the same developmental level, then VOILA!  Surplus.

Evaluating the Pitching
There’s never enough pitching depth is a theory the Braves have been challenging these past few years as the Braves could have 30 prospects that are just pitchers in the organization and it’d be a better list than ⅔ of other organizations. There are a few places I see a bulge that the Braves could deal a prospect or 2 and still be deep at said position.

Front-line RH Starting Pitching- Merely looking at age, Lucas Sims, Patrick Weigel, and Mike Soroka seem like they’re very different in regards to their projected MLB debut, but there’s probably only a calendar year’s difference as Soroka, being the baby of the 3, has far more polish than the other two. Dealing one of these would hurt as we’ve all grown fond of “our guys”, but it could be done without sacrificing too much.

Front-line LH Starting Pitching- Like Sims, Weigel, and Soroka, the foursome of Newcomb, Fried, Allard, and Gohara could be a calendar year apart in debuts as the younger guys are more polished than Newk and Fried. Trading one of these 4 would also hurt, but could be done without jeopardizing too much.

Back-end RH Starting Pitching- Would anyone really care if Bartolo, Dickey, Wisler, Blair, or even Luke Jackson were traded, especially if it landed a real prospect or a front-line starter under control for years? BIG BULGE! These 5 are surplus and I’d expect a few to be gone before this season has elapsed.

Back-end LH Starting Pitching-  Jaime Garcia seems replaceable in the Braves rotation by Newcomb, which likely won’t be an upgrade this year but could prove beneficial to Newcomb’s experience.  Mader, Harrington, Pike, and Sanchez seem repetitive as guys likely destined for the bullpen and around the same developmental level (albeit, Pike is throwing out some pretty righteous stats at High-A). Trading one of these guys doesn’t hurt the Braves from a depth perspective.

Evaluating the Position Players
Catchers- Should Alex Jackson emerge as a force as a catcher, the Braves could look at trading a few of their guys that could become positionless in the future. Until then, I don’t see a catching surplus.

1st Basemen- Matt Adams is the only surplus and he’s currently not even that with Freeman out. If he continues to hit, he’ll be a good bench spot, but a better trade chip.

2nd Basemen- Phillips, Albies, Demeritte, and Jace are surplus in a sense. However, if we’re projecting Albies as the starting 2nd baseman in 2018, Demeritte and Jace still make up good utility players. The real surplus here is Brandon Phillips, but he’s playing well and it’d be very hard for the Braves to trade him if they’re playing .500 baseball. At this point, I don’t see a surplus here.

3rd Basemen- Braves actually need more 3rd basemen in the system as the options at the MLB level are platoons at best and then it’s thin until Austin Riley. No surplus here.

Shortstops- Braves aren’t short on shortstops, but don’t really have any bumping into each other on the depth charts either. No surplus here.

Outfielders- While there aren’t guys that are knocking down the door for an MLB promotion, this is one to keep an eye on as both Dustin Peterson and Ronald Acuna could be begging to be in the bigs by the end of the season, with DP getting an October cup of coffee. If either of these guys solidify their place in the bigs, there’s surplus that opens in the form of Markakis at the MLB level and several guys in the minors that could project as starting OFers.  For now...no surplus.

To wrap it up, I’m not pushing for any of the guys in our organization to be traded, but it’s going to happen. It’s happened every year. The biggest bulges seem to be in RH MLB-ready back-end starting pitching with at least 1 surplus in each of the other pitching categories. Trades are going to hurt...but hopefully they help more.

Go Braves!

Sunday, May 28, 2017

Random Prospect Sunday - Evan Phillips

Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
When the 17th round of the 2015 MLB draft began, Evan Phillips was waiting for his name to be called. A right-hander out of UNC-Wilmington, Phillips had been promised by the New York Yankees that when the 18th pick of the round - and #513th overall - came up, it would be his name that would be called. You can imagine that Phillips had a moment where he imagined what it might be like to wear those iconic pinstripes and walk onto the mound in the new Yankee Stadium.

But something happened before that. With pick #510, Phillips received a call from Billy Best, an area scout for the Atlanta Braves, that it would be the Braves, not the Yanks, that would select the Clayton High School alum (NC). He quickly signed with the Braves and he was a professional.

Phillips, who also had been picked by the Kansas City Royals coming out of high school in 2012, was assigned to the Danville Braves to begin his professional career at just 20-years-old. A starter in college, Phillips was tabbed to be a reliever in the minors and immediately opened some eyes with a half-dozen games in Danville. He allowed a solo homerun, the only blemish during his 13.1 innings. All the while, he K'd 17 and walked just four. It was quickly apparent - and the Braves agreed - that rookie ball was beneath him. He spent the final month-plus in Rome. The results weren't nearly as dominant (4.41 ERA, 3.67 FIP, 4.41 BB/9), but considering he was just a couple of months out of college, Atlanta was pleased with the volume of work.

Rather than a return trip to Rome, Phillips was tabbed for a promotion to Carolina to open 2016. On one hand, he had a 1.27 ERA and eight saves over 21 games with a 2.54 BB/9, his single-best total anywhere. On the other hand, his strikeouts were significantly decreased and his .217 BABIP gave the impression of a pitcher who was getting pretty lucky. Regardless, by mid-June, the Braves again gave Phillips a promotion up the ladder and in just over a year since he was drafted, Phillips was already in Double-A ball. The rapid climb meant that Phillips was the first draftee from 2015 to make it to Double-A to stay (Trevor Belicek made a one-game appearance in April before returning to A-ball). Soon, A.J. Minter and Patrick Weigel would join Phillips in Mississippi from the Class of '15.

With the Mississippi Braves, the strikeouts returned. After falling under 20% with Carolina, it climbed back up to 28.5%. the control wasn't as pinpoint as it had been with the Mudcats, but Phillips continued to show an ability to get out hitters - though a .348 BABIP and 61.4% LOB% were his downfall ERA-wise. That mark went from 1.27 to 4.46. This is despite an FIP that dropped 10 points compared to Carolina and an xFIP that fell nearly a run. A deeper look showed a pitcher who was prone to giving up runs in a short amount of games. Between July 8 and July 24, Phillips was charged with five earned runs over 9.1 ING (5 games). Toward the end of the season, a three-game run saw him give up nine earned runs over 2.2 innings. Those three games jacked up his ERA from 2.20 to 4.60.

Phillips's 2016 was not finished. He headed to Arizona to play in the Fall League with some of the best minor league talent in baseball. He appeared nine times and though he did strike out a little over a batter an inning, he walked nearly as many. He was rather fortunate that he only gave up six hits in 10.2 innings because had he given up many more hits, his ERA would have looked even worse.

Unlike the previous two seasons, an iffy run down the stretch with a new team wasn't followed by a promotion to begin the next season. Phillips headed back to Mississippi to open 2017 and things...have not gone so well, but again, a deeper look into the numbers shows that things may not be what they appear.

Considered a strong possibility to close games for Mississippi, Phillips was blasted early-and-often to begin the season. Two big stinkers on April 13 and April 20 were ERA-ruiners. On the 13th, after Kolby Allard and Jesse Biddle had tossed a combined 7.1 scoreless innings, Phillips entered. He stranded a runner in the 8th and entered the ninth with a 7-0 lead after the Braves added four in the top of the inning. The wheels came off from there. He retired two batters in the inning, but allowed six runners to reach on five singles and a hit batter. When he left, the bases were loaded and three runners had already scored. That's when Danny Reynolds compounded the problem and despite a 7-0 deficit entering the ninth, Tennessee walked it off with an 8-7 win.

A week later, there was significantly less drama as Phillips replaced an ineffective Max Fried and was charged with five runs in just one inning of work. Since that game, Phillips has righted the ship for the most part. He did give up three homers in a pair of appearances in early May, but in 16 innings since April 20, Phillips has allowed just five runs (2.81 ERA), struck out 18, and walked seven. Of course, when you see that his ERA is 8.14, it's worth knowing that since April 20, he's brought his ERA down 17 runs from 25.20 to 8.14.

As for a brief scouting report, Phillips is 6'2" and about 215 pounds. He has a quick delivery in which he pushes his weight back an explodes to the plate. He's not gifted with plus-plus velocity, but can hit 95-97 mph with max effort, though he's more likely to be a few ticks under. He changes speeds well and appears to throw both a four-seam fastball and cutter. His slider is his best delivery and when he's able to get ahead on the heater, his slider has swing-and-miss potential with great late movement. Occasionally, he throws what looks like a show-me changeup, but it wasn't utilized frequently in the game footage I watched.

Phillips' biggest issue is with his delivery - or more specifically, one part of his delivery. Even in the short footage down below, you can see that everything looks smooth except where his landing foot is. Using the dug up scuff of dirt as a guide, check out the landing spot at 0.03, 0.10, 0.18, and 0.25. Benjamin Chase of Tomahawk Take also spoke about this during a scouting report. Consistency throughout the delivery is very important and right now, Phillips has issues there. When he's on, he's dominant as we've seen. When he's not, his control waivers. It'll be something to keep track of moving forward.


Wednesday, May 24, 2017

Braves TJ Victims

(Here is Ryan Cothran's third piece for Walk-Off Walk. Soon enough, he's going to have to get his own account working here at WOW :) His first piece, which was an analysis into BABIP, can be found here. In addition, his second piece, which discussed recent bullpen improvements and what's coming up the chain, can be found here. Remember to follow Ryan on twitter.)

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
I’ve been a can’t waiter for years. I’m no longer going to be a can’t waiter. For the sake of my sanity, I can’t be a can’t waiter. What is a can’t waiter, you might ask? I guess I could assume you can’t wait to know. Well, I can’t wait to tell you.

A can’t waiter is an individual that looks at the Minor League teams of which he/she roots for, scours the roster, finds players that are having serious success, pines for said players to receive call-ups immediately, and talks daily how they can’t wait to see them kicking butt in the MLB like it’s a given that they’ll:
  • Stay Healthy  
  • Dominate the best baseball players in the world as much as they’ve dominated lesser players (although much better than anyone who’ll likely read this, your’s truly included).
Of the 2 listed above, the Braves have taken an extreme gamble by rolling the dice on (A) in their acquisitions/signings.  When I was writing for Tomahawk Take, I noticed a serious trend of the Braves signing/acquiring players that were either recovering at the time from Tommy John surgery, hadn’t made it back to the field from setbacks from Tommy John, or hadn’t found the success they were seeing prior to going down with injury.  I called it the Braves form of Moneyball, and you can click to see the old article.

*Disclaimer: Let it be known that aside from roster spots, a small chunk of change, and patience out the WAZOO, this gamble has been relatively small in terms of players traded and risks involved. 

At the time, it seemed really smart. Most of MLB teams weren’t in a place to offer these guys guaranteed money, give them a 40-man spot, or go through the bumps that comes with pitchers pitching back to form.  I thought it was brilliant!  In hindsight, it hasn’t worked out in most cases.  It was a gamble that others weren’t taking and with a rebuild in-tow, it was worth giving it a shot.

On Twitter, there have been many to poke fun at the Mets and their lacking ability to keep their pitchers on the field.  The Braves haven’t been much better. Their own list is VAST! While many of these didn’t succumb to injury while pitching for the Braves, it doesn’t negate the fact the we as Braves fans should not wag tongues or point fingers.  Here is a likely incomplete list of pitchers that have been in the organization in the last 5-6 years and have had the surgery:

Players that have been in Braves Organization and had Tommy John Surgery

Current Major Leaguers
  • Jason Grilli - TJ surgery early in his career and came back a stronger and more efficient pitcher. 
  • *Arodys Vizcaino
  • Eric O’Flaherty - hasn’t been same since 2013 surgery.  70 innings total, but 40 innings of bad baseball with the Braves
  • Alex Wood - traded in 2015, injured most of ‘16, and pitching brilliantly currently with Dodgers
  • Jason Motte - TJ in 2013, has pitched mediocre baseball since return. Been pitching well lately.
  • Sam Freeman - TJ in 2010, has had mixed results, although I’m not sure it’s related to TJ. Has been pitching brilliantly the last few weeks.
  • Peter Moylan - Had TJ surgery in 2008, was effective for the next 3 years in a Braves uniform. Has struggled lately with the Royals.
Current Minor Leaguers
Retired Major Leaguers
  • Billy Wagner - Had TJ surgery in 2008, came back dominant in Boston and then Atlanta
  • Tim Hudson - TJ surgery in 2008, pitched effectively for rest of his career.
Not currently affiliated with any team
  • Michael Kohn - Had TJ surgery in 2012, other arm injuries have kept him from contributing.
  • *Paco Rodriguez
  • Mark Lamm - Had TJ surgery, never made it to MLB and was last pitching in the Indy Leagues
Notice the players with asterisks and lack of breakdown? Know what they represent?  They’re some of the source of the “can’t waiters” happiness. These players were either bought low on due to injury or drafted low due to injury. They had big ceilings at one point and lost their luster due to injury. But should we be putting stock into these guys? Let’s dissect a bit…

Man, I can’t wait til we see *insert recovering flamethrower*

Manny Banuelos - When the trade went down, it was looked at as a landslide win for the Braves. Now? Manny is no longer with the Braves being DFA’d at the end of 2016. Meanwhile, Chasen Shreve has been part of the Yankees bullpen the last 3 years, pitching over 100 innings with a mid-3s ERA. All the while our left-handed relief pitching has been a dumpster fire for those 3 years.

Paco Rodriguez - Was a bit of a throw-in in what is likely to go down as the worst trade of Coppy’s tenure. Was recovering from Tommy John when acquired and spent time rehabbing. After looking fair in 2017 Spring Training, he was released and word was leaked that he had poor work ethic.

Arodys Vizcaino - Acquired from the Yankees, traded to the Cubs, re-acquired from the Cubs, Vizzy has pitched 86.2 innings of good baseball out of the Braves bullpen, but has had his fair share of injuries along the way and hasn’t totaled 40 innings in either of the 2 full years since acquisition, granted the first year was due to an 80-game suspension.  He’s been pitching lights out lately.

Josh Outman - Gifted with an ideal surname for a pitcher, Outman was a buy-low project prior to the 2015 season due to 2014 Tommy John surgery and thought likely to break the Braves 25-man roster. He ended up pitching 8.2 innings in the Minors and had shoulder issues nearly the entire year.

Andrew McKirahan - Claimed from the Marlins and already down a Tommy John surgery, McK got busted for cheating, returned and pitched poorly for the Braves in 2015, then re-ripped his UCL, and hasn’t pitched since mid-2015. He's currently in the Reds organization after an offseason trade.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
Jesse Biddle - Had Tommy John surgery in 2015 and was claimed by the Braves in March of 2016 by the Pirates. He’s now pitching meaningful games in Mississippi with mixed results.

Max Fried - Acquired from the Padres in the Justin Upton deal, Fried was recovering from Tommy John surgery and was deemed recovered at the end of the 2016 season. Down the stretch, he was absolutely dominant but has struggled with consistency in 2017 which is very common the first year after Tommy John.

Daniel Winkler - A personal favorite of mine (but this was when I was all-in on the strategy of acquiring Tommy John guys and stashing them) pitched 4 innings in MLB between ‘15&’16 before breaking his elbow AFTER he’d already rehabbed from Tommy John. He's a rule-5er so he has to stay on the 25-man roster unless he’s on the DL. Currently, he’s still at extended Spring Training strengthening.

A.J. Minter - Would’ve been drafted early in 1st round had it not been for blowing out his elbow pre-draft. He’s had some flare-ups in the elbow area and other ailments that are apparently non-elbow related. Still, he’s only pitched 1 inning this year and remains out with no timetable set on his return.

Jacob Lindgren - Pitched with the Yankees, blew out his elbow, then they tried to sneak him through waivers. He was picked up by the Braves and will miss the entire 2017 season. He, like Minter, are key “can’t waiters” in the organization.

Has this strategy paid off for the Braves Front-office?

What is the expectation? In essence, I guess one can say that most of these guys were/are lottery tickets and anything gained is just gravy (examples: La Stella/Vizzy+INT slot money, Winkler in the Rule 5), but some cost real players (Fried/Man-Ban/Paco), roster spots (Winkler/McK), and high-draft choices (Minter). Thus far,  Man-Ban DFA’d, Paco released, Outman out, McK cheated then re-broke himself then was released, and Winkler rehabbed then broke elbow again.

The only success story that has played out in the bigs has been Vizzy and he’s not been a guy that a manager can give the ball to 70 times a year. Hopefully, this changes this year and we can reflect on the Tommy John Survivor strategy as a positive one.

Obviously, we have yet to see Minter, Lindgren, Fried, and Biddle, and there’s still a chance that Winkler can come back and be a force out of the bullpen, but we as fans need to be cautious when our expectation of these guys is that they’ll be healthy AND dominant.  It’s just not that simple.

A Piece of Advice for Myself

Pitching health in today’s game is so fickle. Pitching health after suffering a major injury, undergoing major surgery, and grinding through an extensive rehab is a crapshoot.  When it comes to these guys, we as fans might benefit by looking at them as luxuries rather than unequivocal future pieces. Be excited about these guys, watch them grow as pitchers, root for them to stay healthy, but learn from my mistakes and refrain from putting them in the category of “Can’t Wait” guys. Rather, leave them in a separate chamber of your heart that is more accustomed to heartbreak.

Thanks for reading! Go Braves!

Tuesday, March 14, 2017

Transaction Tuesday - Braves Finish Busy Week With Waiver Claim

I skipped last week's Transaction Tuesday recap because I only had a couple of items to cover (David Hale reappearing, Christian Walker's brief run with the Braves concluding). This week, I have quite a lot more to analyze, including a waiver pickup last night. Let's dive deep into a busy week.

Atlanta Braves
Claimed: LHP Kevin Chapman (Astros)...A fourth-round pick by the Royals back in 2010 out of the University of Florida, Chapman moved to the Astros in a trade before the 2012 season. He took off in the Astros' system, earning a promotion in 2013. Since then, he's been a regular on the Fresno-to-Houston flight. Despite parts of four seasons in the bigs, he's only appeared in 58 games and logged 55 innings. The results aren't too exciting. Capable of excellent strikeout numbers in the minors, (23%-to-25%), Chapman's K numbers are down under 20% in the majors while his walk totals remain pretty substandard (12.5%). He's prone to leaving the ball high or over the plate and has a 0.82 HR/9 rate in the bigs. All of those numbers lead to a FIP/xFIP/SIERA split of 4.29/4.60/4.35. Basically, he's not horrid, but he's not too good, either. As a left-hand specialist, he's difficult to square up against (zero HR allowed) and he strikes out a quarter of all lefties, but his control is still problematic. Against righties, he's been pretty abysmal (6.34 FIP in a limited sample). Chapman is a rare breed in that he throws five different pitches out of the pen, though his 92-93 mph sinker will be, by far, his most common choice. That said, it's more of a hard fastball with some sink to it and that's why Chapman doesn't get a huge amount of grounders. Chapman will also throw a slider and changeup along with a four-seam fastball and curve that he's added the last two seasons to the mix. None of his pitches look to be more than average. My impression is that Chapman is depth for the time being and a guy the Braves might try to sneak off their 40-man roster as he's out of options. Such a move led to Christian Walker's exit from the organization, but the Braves were able to move Adam Walker off the roster that way.

Disabled: RHP Daniel Winkler (60-day)...No timetable has been set on Winkler as he returns from a fractured elbow while throwing a pitch last April. However, the 60-days gives us an idea of where the Braves see Winkler right now. At the very least, we won't see Winkler throw a meaningful pitch until possibly May as he begins a rehab assignment and tries to get back to the bigs. If successful, Atlanta will have to keep him on the roster for at least 57 days (hat tip to Braves Options Guy).

Gwinnett
Optioned: RHP Jason Hursh (2nd option)...Despite making it to the majors last year for the first time, there was little chance that Hursh would make the opening day roster. The former starter and 2013 first-round selection didn't have much success this spring in his very limited showings and continues to serve as an example of bad high-floor drafting from the Frank Wren years.

Mississippi
Optioned: LHP Jesse Biddle (2nd option)...This surprised no one. A former top prospect in the Phillies' system, Biddle missed last season with Tommy John surgery and will return to Double-A, where he's already logged 31 starts between 2014-15. However, it's a good spot for Biddle as it allows him to work on his game without the pressures of jockeying for position on what remains a talented Gwinnett rotation. Biddle made his return to live ball last week with an inning against his former Phillie mates. For more on Biddle, check out my scouting report.

Released: LHP Matt Marksberry...Though this is not official, Marksberry himself tweeted last week about his release as he thanked the Braves organization for an opportunity and changed his Twitter description to "Free Agent Believer." Marksberry appeared in 35 games for the Braves the last two years and despite little success, was a fan favorite due to his approachable nature on Twitter. Early in the offseason, Marksberry suffered from a seizure and dehydration after suffering some side effects from medicine he was taking. He was placed in an induced coma for a few days as doctors worked to bring up his shockingly low sodium levels. Marksberry was in the minor league camp after being removed from the 40-man roster last year.

Reassigned to Minor League Camp (Team To Be Determined)
LHP Sam Freeman...With 142 games already in the major leagues, Freeman looked like a strong contender for a bullpen spot after being one of the earliest free agents signed by the Braves this offseason. However, subsequent moves and Freeman's limitations on the mound - notably his failure to dominate lefties - put Freeman as a distant option heading into camp. He did little to impress, allowing six hits and six runs over one inning of work with a pair of walks. Freeman is still may find it hard to make Gwinnett or Mississippi's roster so don't be surprised if you see him cut later in camp.

LHP Adam Kolarek...A former long-time Mets product, Kolarek has struggled to stick in Triple-A and has logged just 36 games there since 2013. Kolarek has looked good in a specialist role, but most left-hand specialists rarely don't start that way. Typically, they hold their own against righties in the minors, which Kolarek rarely has done. Like Freeman, he'll compete for a spot at Gwinnett or possibly Mississippi.

By Sports Crazy on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
RHP Rhiner Cruz...Signed out of the Mexican League, Cruz has tossed three scoreless innings this spring for the Braves. A Rule 5 selection in 2012, Cruz struggled tremendously while spending the year in the majors. He saw action in the bigs again in 2013, but soon pitched himself out of the Astros' plans as they cut him in 2014 so that he could head to Japan. He works off a funky delivery with good velocity and a hit-or-miss slurve. Like many of the minor league free agents the Braves signed, he was added to compete for a spot with Mississippi or Gwinnett, but his solid work with the big league club will only help him find a job come opening day.

C Joseph Odom...In 52 games with Carolina last year, Odom came into his own with a .292/.349/.500 slash that included a .379 wOBA. A callup to Mississippi, however, took away most of Odom's power and hurt his chances of pushing his way up the prospect charts. A good defender, Odom is likely ticketed for a return trip to Mississippi with...

C Kade Scivicque...Acquired from the Tigers late during the 2016 season for Erick Aybar, Scivicque had a strong - and limited - showing in the Arizona Fall League and some solid numbers with the Tigers' top A-ball team before the trade (.282/.324/.379). Scivicque made my Top 50 rankings at #45 based on his potential plus his progression along with some defensive skills as a pitch framer and caller. While I doubt he'll ever hit enough to earn a full-time starting nod in the majors, Scivicque has the look of a decent backup catcher at some point.

OF Dustin Peterson...Being reassigned is more of a procedural move for Peterson, who broke his hamate bone in his left hand facing the Yankees on March 1. Peterson is coming off a year where he won the organization's Player of the Year award and set new personal-highs in a number of offensive categories. Just as important was his progression as a fielder in his second year after being moved away from third base. Peterson's breakout campaign still masked how young he is as this is his Age-22 season. Once healthy and after proving his timing is back, Peterson will head to Gwinnett where he will try to keep his name firmly in place as the first outfielder called up if an injury opens a spot. For more on Peterson, here is a small report on him from my offseason Top 50 prospects.