The Andrelton Simmons Trade Revisited

Chris Blessing - Follow on Twitter

The many trades of John Coppolella's still brief tenure with the Braves run the gamut between the amazing to the surprising to the occasional "don't remind me." And then, there is the Sean Newcomb/Andrelton Simmons trade. Sure, there were two other players in that deal - Chris Ellis and Erick Aybar - but this deal was effectively one top pitching prospect for one extra-elite glove with plenty of offensive issues.

It was a controversial deal from the beginning. Simmons had signed a seven-year extension in February of 2014, was just 26 at the time of the trade, and had already won two Gold Gloves while posting unreal defensive metrics that introduced Braves fans to the ideas of DRS and UZR/150. Despite his struggles at the plate, Simmons had posted 11.7 fWAR from his call-up in 2012 to the end of 2015. Players like that just don't fall from the sky.

Neither do pitchers with Newcomb's combination of youth, projectability, and stuff. Newcomb had just jumped from low-A ball to Double-A in 2015 while recording 168 strikeouts and allowing just five homeruns. It was his first full season after being selected with the 15th overall pick of the 2014 draft. But he had his concerns, too. He walked 76 batters that year in 136 innings - far too high of a total if he was to live up to his frontline potential in the majors.

When the deal was announced, you either thought "loved Simba's glove, but he wasn't going to hit anyway" or you went the "Newcomb's never going to throw strikes" route. Other than the deal we don't talk about anymore, no other Coppolella trade had so much contention attached to it. The Braves dealt a fan favorite in a year full of trading away fan favorites and all they received was a lefty with great stuff, but mega trouble in finding the strike zone. Oh, and Ellis and Aybar, but that latter name makes this deal look worse for most people - even those that like it.

For my part, I was one of the rare indifferent people to this trade who agreed with both sides to an extent. I understood the process, understood why the deal made sense and understood that Newcomb's potential was incredibly high. I also understood that Newcomb's issues and Simmons' defense made the deal not so slam dunk and Simmons had shown in the minors the ability to hit much better than he had in the majors. I liked the deal, but I also didn't like the deal all that much. I remember writing for About.com at the time that regardless of how I may fall on the trade for the Braves, I didn't understand at all why the Angels pulled the trigger. If any team in baseball needed to develop some young and talented arms, it was the Angels. They had cashed in their last blue-chip trade minor league asset at the time for a shortstop who couldn't hit.

Yeah, I know. About that...

Simmons predictably didn't hit in an injury-riddled 2016 campaign. Well, he hit .281, which was his best batting average since his rookie call-up season, but he paired that with a .302 wOBA and a 91 wRC+. Better than his last two seasons with the Braves, but hardly something you were going to miss - especially with Dansby Swanson arriving in the majors last August. For his part, Newcomb lowered his walk rate slightly - and saw a slight downturn in his K% - but took a big step forward with his mechanics in the second half of 2016. He was on the rise, Simmons was stagnating, and Swanson was a budding superstar.

How things have changed. Newcomb is still on the rise - or at least a few of his metrics are. Both his strikeout and walk rates approached his 2015 levels. Simmons is also on the rise. And Swanson...

Moving on.

With Simmons posting the eighth-best fWAR in the game and third-best wOBA among shortstops, it's easy to look back at the trade and throw tomatoes. Watching Newcomb walk seven Dodgers Thursday night might also make someone throw assorted produce. And Swanson...

Moving on (again).

You might ask if Simmons is playing over his head? I'd like to tell you that he is, but instead, he has finally improved at the plate. Simmons was the King of Bad Contact with the Braves. Despite a big swing, Simmons didn't strike out much. Twice, he finished the season with less than 9% of his plate appearances ending in a strikeout. The problem with so much contact is it increases the frequency that you make bad contact. This season, overall he's made less contact, but the quality of the contact is better. His hard-hit rate has improved from 23%, which is where the rate stagnated over the last two seasons, to a career-high 31.2%. The wOBA on hard-hit balls this season is .695. Making better contact is more beneficial for the player than making more contact.

He's also pulling the ball more frequently than he did the last three years and that particular nugget is more in line with his 2013 numbers. If you recall, he blasted 17 of his 31 homers that he hit for the Braves in just that season. The wOBA on pulled balls is .412 this season, easily the most impressive of the three zones one can hit the ball.

Simmons is doing the things that many of us felt he needed to do with the Braves, but was either not capable of doing or not being instructed to do. Whatever the case, Simmons, at 27 years-old, finally has a bat to at least compliment his glove, which remains elite.

Newcomb's not half-bad, by the way. Yes, the control has wavered - and worsened a bit since getting to the majors - but as Stephen Tolbert pointed out a few weeks ago, the weapons are there. Newcomb has the pitches. Right now, he needs to locate them better. He's living in the zone 5% lower than the average pitcher despite average to slightly-above-average rates in first-pitch strikes and swinging strikes. Despite getting ahead, he's not finishing off enough batters. A lot of his problems have been self-made. He puts runners on, nibbles, and then hangs a curveball and it gets hit to the moon. After seven home runs surrendered the last 197.2 innings in the minors, he's given up six in just 52.2 innings.

But don't be discouraged. Pitchers with otherworldly stuff and talent often need time to learn to pitch with it. Clayton Kershaw walked 11% and 13% of batters over his first two years in the league. Not that Newcomb's destined to be Kershaw, but that might add a little context to the argument.

To be honest, I think most people want to just be right. As Simmons struggled through another substandard year with the bat while Newcomb got hot down the stretch, no one was trying to make a suggestion that the trade went awry. Fans of the deal said "look, I told you! And now we got Dansbae!" Now, Simmons is surging and Newcomb looks like a rookie pitcher. Critics can go back in their facebook or twitter timelines and point out how they called it. They just knew Simmons would start to hit and Newcomb wouldn't throw strikes.

It also is worth mentioning that this deal doesn't exist in a vacuum. It was part of an organizational philosophy to rebuild through pitching. That required grabbing every high-end pitching talent they could. This deal wasn't one move, but one of many. Some of those talents have already washed out like Matt Wisler (now a reliever) and Manny Banuelos. Others like Mike Foltynewicz and Newcomb are in the major league starting rotation. Still others like Touki Toussaint, Luiz Gohara, and Ricardo Sanchez are on their way.

In closing, I would say this deal worked out for both teams and it worked out for both players. The Angels got an elite player to compliment Mike Trout and play phenomenal defense behind their aging staff. The Braves got a high-end pitching prospect who, less than two years later, is already in the majors and striking out 23% of opposing hitters. Simmons got a chance to work with Dave Hansen and Paul Sorrento - and learn from Albert Pujols - on how to hit major league pitching. That's something he may have not gained in Atlanta. And Newcomb has the chance to work with the Braves' impressive cadre of pitching coaches and instructors.

Sometimes, the deal benefits everyone. In my opinion, this is one of those times.

Making Sense of Yesterday's Roster & Lineup Decisions

G-Braves Media

It was already going to be a big day as far as major league debuts go, but the surprising afternoon news of another new addition to the list of players to play in the bigs was a bit confusing at first. The decision to bring Ozzie Albies to the major leagues yesterday was given some context as the day went on.

Albies WAS NOT brought to the majors for an injury. He WAS NOT brought to the majors for to spend some time around the team. He WAS NOT even brought to the majors because the Braves needed depth. He WAS brought in as Brandon Phillips' replacement at second base. Quite simply, the Braves decided to bring Albies up to be the difference maker we believe he can be.

But that wasn't the only decision the Braves made yesterday. Let's look at each decision and what they mean for the Braves over the next couple of months.

The big news of the day was originally going to be Lucas Sims Day. One of the last holdovers from the Frank Wren regime, Sims was essentially handed Jaime Garcia's spot in the rotation after a brief reminder that Aaron Blair is unlikely to be the guy. Unless "the guy" is defined to mean "remember the guy who also came over with Dansby Swanson and Ender Inciarte?"

Sims went six innings while allowing six hits, including a homer, and three runs. He walked nobody and struck out three. He also got a pickoff and might have had a better night had Tyler Flowers not air-mailed a throw to third or had Danny Santana not gone all Roger Dorn on a hard grounder. Even with that in mind, it was the kind of game Braves fans have been clamoring for from the bounty of young starters the team has loaded up on for the last few years.

Regardless of what the future may hold for the young righty, the overall impression of Sims being in the majors is a good one. The right-handed fireballer had taken a big step forward this year and earned his right to join Sean Newcomb in the rotation. Atlanta needs to figure out what they have in these guys at some point and with the Braves effectively admitting the season is over, it's time to look toward 2018. Guys like Sims, Newcomb, and Albies will hopefully all be in the mix for that team.

And speaking of Albies, he went hitless in his debut, though he did walk in three trips to the plate. Surprisingly, before last night, the only two Braves to make their big league debut this season for a team very much in a youth movement were Johan Camargo and Newcomb. That total was doubled last night and the smart money suggests others are on their way.

The choice of Albies - at this moment - was a bit of a head scratcher, but let's put this into perspective. The Braves did not deal Brandon Phillips at the trading deadline. That's not to say they won't trade him this month as his contract will certainly pass through waivers, but as of right now, Phillips remains a Brave. That speaks to a shallow market for sure, but could it speak to something else? Could the Braves have had a deal on the table for Phillips that would send him elsewhere only for the second baseman to use his partial no-trade clause to block it?

The most likely answer is the one that Brian Snitker provided - "We got Brandon and he’s been really, really good. But it’s time to see the kid.”

What does this mean for Phillips moving forward? Well, he'll be given a chance to play third base should he choose to do so, but the bigger impression is this - his time with the Braves is limited. Atlanta could go with Phillips at second and Albies at shortstop while shifting Camargo to third (more on that in a sec), but that doesn't seem something they are currently interested in. Right now, it's Albies at second and that's going to be a regular thing.

Which is good. Like Swanson before him, if Albies is in the majors, he should be in the lineup. For now, it looks like he'll share the middle of the diamond with Camargo. In an almost funny way, the Braves have never kept Albies and Swanson together for very long. Despite being the expected double play combo for the next decade, the duo hasn't spent a lot of time together outside of a month-and-a-half last season in Mississippi before Swanson was called up to the majors.

As I said, for the moment, Camargo is at shortstop, but it doesn't seem likely that he'll be joined by Freddie Freeman on the left side of the infield. Instead, Freeman will be shifted to first base - which is weird simply because Freeman actually hasn't been that bad at third base. Instead of Freeman at third, it looks like Sean Rodriguez and Danny Santana will share the position for the time being. When rosters expand, we'll probably see more lineups with Rio Ruiz returning and Swanson likely pushing Camargo to third base more.

Where does that leave Matt Adams? In left field - at least until Matt Kemp returns. He got the start last night but left the game after just five innings due to dizziness. What that means to the future of Adams playing left field is unknown. What is very confusing about this move is that Freeman is a better third baseman than Adams is a left fielder, yet the Braves went in this direction. Some have suggested that Adams playing left field is better for his trade value. I don't know how to respond to that without laughing.

Whatever the motivation for benching Phillips and sending Adams to left might be - and I'm betting it's simply that they didn't find any real takers at the deadline - the Braves seem content with their decisions from last night provided Adams doesn't suffer any more dizziness issues. So, that leaves us with Sims and Albies taking up new important roles with the team, potentially the Matt Adams Plays Left Field Experience and a mix of Rodriguez and Santana at third base. Defensively, this is not ideal and this is was not a very good defense to begin with.

For Braves fans, as confusing as the last 24 hours have been, one thing is for certain - having Albies and Sims begin another youth movement makes the Braves more fun and exciting to watch. Considering they are 3-12 since getting to .500, that's at least something.

Sean Newcomb, Rich Hill, and Spin Rates

Chris Blessing - Follow on Twitter

As we’ve entered the Statcast era of baseball analytics, we now have the ability to look at specific parts of the game with much more clarity. We can quantify how hard a player hits the ball, what angle the ball comes off the bat, how many feet a center-fielder covers to make a play, how quick his first step was and on and on and on. Among these new tools is one metric that’s changed how we measure pitchers and the effectiveness of their pitches: spin rate.

If you were paying attention last year, you know one of the best stories of 2016 was Rich Hill. He tore through the NL last year for a few reasons but there were two main ones; he had a great curveball and he threw it a ton. Hill led all of baseball last year throwing his curve a whopping 42% of the time with an average spin rate of 2837 RPMs which was good for 3^rd among all LH starters, per Baseball Savant.

So just out of interest, I wanted to see how he was doing in 2017 and sure enough once again he leads all LH starters with a CB spin rate of 2792 RPMs. 

But what was interesting was who was sitting there in second place: Sean Newcomb. Newcomb is spinning his CB at 2791 RPMs, almost identical to Hill’s.

Ok. I knew it was a good curveball but Rich Hill good? Ok.

For those of you still new to the spin rate concept, the faster you can spin the ball, the harder the ball will move in the direction it’s spinning. For instance, a fastball has back spin when you throw it so the more spin you put on a FB the longer it repels gravity and stays up. Curveballs, of course, have front spin as the ball rolls over the index finger so the faster you can spin it, the harder it’s going to move downward.

And these concepts are confirmed by their resulting batted ball data. High spinning fastballs stay up longer and therefore result in more fly balls while low spinning FB succumb to gravity faster resulting in more groundballs.

With curveballs, it’s the exact opposite. High spinning CBs move downward a greater rate and therefore result in more groundballs while low spinning CBs, or hangers, lead to more fly balls. And as evidence from the “elevate and celebrate” revolution taking over baseball right now, pitchers want groundballs. Well they want no contact at all but the next best thing is getting grounders. You get it.

Overall, Newcomb is only posting slightly above average groundball rates right now, around 45% but a big reason for that is his high fastball usage. Newcomb throws his fastball almost 64% of the time, per Brooks Baseball and when hitters put it in play, they hit it on the ground 41% of the time. So that’s going to hurt his overall groundball rate.

But when hitters put his curveball into play, that’s when we see that spin rate effect. When batters make contact with Newcomb’s CB, which he throws 24% of the time, they put it on the ground 58% of the time and only have .200 batting average against. Hitters, in generals, just aren't making optimal contact against it.

It’s not just ground balls either. Newcomb gets swing-and-misses on almost 16% of his curveballs compared to 10% with his fastball. (It’s 20% with his change-up but that’s another post for another day)

The biggest difference I see with Hill and Newcomb's curveball is Hill is able to control his better at this point in their careers. It makes sense, Hill is much older and has thrown thousands more CBs in his career, but that's where Sean can see the most gains with his. Being able to drop it in for a strike or bounce it in the dirt on command will force hitters to respect it at a greater level than they do now. But that just comes with repetition. He'll get there.

You didn’t need me or this post to tell you Newcomb has a good curveball, but it wasn’t until I dove into the data that I realized how good it actually was. This is the part of the post where I feel compelled to remind everyone, and myself, that we're still dealing with relatively small samples and the prudent thing to is wait and see.

But it's hard to have fluky spin rates. You either have the ability or you don't.

Like many of you, I’ve wondered when Sean is going to start featuring his change-up and slider more in games, especially against good teams. But perhaps that’s the wrong question. Perhaps the question we should be asking is when is Newcomb going to make his curveball his featured weapon.

Hey, it worked for Rich Hill.