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Showing posts with label Top30Prospects. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Top30Prospects. Show all posts

Friday, October 30, 2015

Top 30 Prospects, Post-2015 Edition - ...and One More!

(Hey guys, been a little while since my last post as life required some more of my time. Trying to catch up to my schedule over the next several days. Thanks for reading and your patience.)

Previous Rankings: 30-21 | 20-11 | 10-1

After finishing the top 30 prospects, I like to take a look at guys who are the next man in at their respective positions. These guys could break into the Top 30 by the time I do a preseason list or by midseason. Probably more likely, they have a good chance of never getting beyond this list, but hey, that's the nature of prospects.

If you missed a previous ranking, click the navigation above. For these players, I won't use grades.

RHP - Matt Custred - You don't often see 31st rounders impress, but the Texas Tech product quickly became a name to watch this season. He spent most of the season with Danville and K'd 45 in 31.2 ING with the Braves there. When you add his nine walks, that's a 5/1 K/BB ratio and while math's hard, that's easy to get excited about. But Texas Tech bullpen catcher Brooks Gustafson could have warned us of that. "Custred, he’s just nasty. Everything he throws is hard and just moves a lot." Gustafson tried to avoid catching Custred if he could because of his skill set on the mound.

Feigl (Elsa/Getty)
LHP - Brady Feigl - During spring training, Feigl became such a topic of discussion that an intro into Feigl I wrote became one of my most-read articles of 2015. Undrafted and retired, Feigl gave competitive pitching another shot and it resulted in a contract and a 2014 season where he had over 4 K's to each walk at A-ball. He was off to a great start in winning a surprise spot out of the pen this spring, but struggles late led the team to search for the problem. They found it and Tommy John surgery took Feigl away for the season. He'll likely miss the start of the year and will need rehab time in the minors, but don't be surprised if Feigl is an early summer addition to the Braves' bullpen.

C - Tanner Murphy - No position took a step back more than catcher this season and Murphy was not immune from the trend. A year after slashing .242/.361/.389 with Danville, Murphy slumped to a .193/.277/.312 line in 2015 as a member of the Rome Braves. The former 4th rounder did hit 7 homers, which is at least something. With Jose Briceno stalled in front of him and Lucas Herbert trying to get back on track after missing most of his first season, Murphy won't have much more time to get going before he becomes yesterday's news.

1B - Anthony Concepcion - Pickings are slim at first base, though that's not too abnormal. You could go with Jake Schrader here, but I'm going with someone else mainly to change things up. Neither is a big prospect and Concepcion was old for the Dominican Summer League last year, but the 1B/LF did have a .861 OPS in 68 games with an eye-opening .410 OBP.

2B - Omar Obregon - A switch-hitter out of Nicaragua, Obregon has played shortstop almost as much as he's played second base so far. This year, his first above rookie ball, he hit .274 with a .336 OBP. Smooth defensively, he's a bit of a trainwreck on the basepthes and was caught in 19 of his 50 attempts. He's a long-shot and likely just minor league filler.

SS - Emerson Landoni - Can a 26 year-old utility guy who has spent the last year-and-a-half in Mississippi be a prospect? Probably not, but I'm scraping the bottom of the barrel here. Landoni joined the Braves after the Yankees gave up on him following the 2011 season. Since then, he has served as a useful bench bat who provides depth to the lineup. Last year, Landoni received 443 PA with the M-Braves and hit .297. To this point, he has played all four infield positions, LF, and even got a win as a pitcher during the 2011 season.

3B - Carlos Franco - Hard to get too bullish on Franco, who exceeded his previous output by a noticeable margin in 2015 and even with that in mind, he hit .254/.347/.403 with 11 HR. Still, the Braves placed four 3B in my top 30 so this position does have plenty of depth as is.

OF - Leudys Baez - Yet another member of the aggressively-pushed youth that the Holy John Trinity brought in after Frank Wren was let go, Baez opened his career by posting a .311/.331/.473 line in 33 games with Danville. A push to Rome was likely premature and Baez struggled as a result. He's got great athletic ability, but has to learn to take a walk (just six in 267 PA).

OF - Ronald Acuna - A younger speedier version of Baez is Acuna, who opened the season as a 17 year-old in the Gulf Coast League and finished with an 18-game run with Danville where his numbers only improved. Overall, he hit .269/.380/.438 with 4 HR and 16 steals in 55 games. Expected to have the ability to stick in center, Acuna is a right-hand hitting option to keep an eye on.

OF - Connor Lien - While Lien didn't exactly make a big splash compared to his 2014 numbers, he did hit .285 with 9 HR and 34 steals while displaying a rocket arm that scared many a Carolina League runner into submission. One of my bubble guys who just missed the Top 30, Lien has a few issues that may sidetrack him from becoming a major league player. Namely, he strikes out a ton and walks very little. Nevertheless, his numbers have improved each season since making his debut in 2012 in the Gulf Coast League. If that trend continues in Mississippi, it might be time to consider Lien more.

Monday, October 19, 2015

Top 30 Prospects, Post-2015 Edition - #10-1

Previous Rankings: 30-21 | 20-11

Over the last two weeks, I have released the first two tiers of my Top 30 post-season ranks. This finishes up the list. Well, not really. Next Monday, I will release a "And One More" prospect run-down which will include one more player at each position to keep an eye on over the winter and into two next year. For reference, two of the players from the preseason list (Daniel Winkler and Juan Yepez) made this Top 30.

I'm thinking of a Supersized Top 30 for the preseason ranking. Maybe a Top 30 + 20 prospects. If you have any ideas of how to improve this list, feel free to comment or tweet me. In the meantime, thanks for reading and on with the countdown.

Previous ranking legend
#20, #25 ...example ranking referring to pre-2015 rank and midseason update respectively.
- ...not ranked
+1 ...made the "And One More" list as a honorable mention

Ruiz (Elsa | Getty)
10. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Grade: B-
Previous Ranks: 6, 7

It takes me awhile to quit on a guy, but without Ruiz's strong finish, he certainly drops out my Top 10. However, hitting 4 of his five homers and hitting nearly .300 over the final 34 games gives me some hope. There's something here and it's enough to get hopeful over. After all, most 21 year-olds struggle at AA. Likely tabbed for a return trip to Mississippi in 2016, Ruiz can be dealt with patiently as the Braves see if they can get him going in the right direction. If Ruiz is in Gwinnett by the summer, things are looking up.

9. Braxton Davidson, OF, Grade: B-
Previous Ranks: 11, 10 

Davidson has seen some ranking progression so far from 11th to 10th to 9th this time. How can a guy who hit just .242 get much praise? By adding 10 homers, 84 walks, and a .381 OBP. Now, there are some whispers that he's not aggressive enough and it paves the way for too many strikeouts, but remember that Davidson started this season at 18 in the South Atlantic League and didn't turn 19 until two months in. He never faced a pitcher younger than him and of the Top 15 youngest hitters in the SALLY, of which Davidson ranks as the 14th youngest, Davidson's .755 OPS was sixth (3rd if you limit the list to those that received 400 PA). At just 19, he still has a lot of time to mature into the power hitter that made Frank Wren pony up the money to sign him as the 32nd overall selection of last year's draft. I like Davidson's chances to go higher in the rankings in 2016.

Jenkins (Elsa | Getty)
8. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Grade: B- 
Previous Ranks: 10, 11 

On one end, it would be easy to ignore Jenkins' 2015 for what it wasn't. What it wasn't was a big strikeout year. What it wasn't was a year where hitters struggled to reach base. But what it was? It was a year in which Jenkins (mostly) stayed healthy, something he has not been able to do as a professional. The former Baylor QB recruit pitched 138.1 innings, shattering his previous best by 50 innings, and did well at AA before a late season promotion to AAA showed some cracks (more homers, for one). Now, it's worth mentioning that a 1.4 K/BB rate is not exactly going to win any awards and his strikeouts were down last year, but the Braves sought a healthy season with progression for Jenkins and got it. Now, in 2016, the real challenge begins. Can he improve his numbers and get his walks down?

7. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Grade: B 
Previous Ranks: 7, 6

ManBan opened the year with 15 starts, including his second professional shutout, for the Gwinnett Braves. While we were all aware that he was on an innings limit, he looked like he was on the right direction to finish with a big first season in the organization. His first three appearances in Atlanta in early July did nothing to erase that hope, but a few iffy outings followed by bone spurs in his surgically fixed arm led to a DL trip. Once he came back in September, he lasted a pair of ugly starts before getting shut down to get the spurs removed from his arm. So, 2015 gave us the tantalizing quality of Banuelos, who has Top 100 stuff, but has been able to throw 100 innings just twice in his eight-year career. But 2016 could be different...right?

Mallex Smith (Stacy Revere | Getty Sports)
6. Mallex Smith, OF, Grade: B 
Previous Ranks: 12, 9

It took me a long time to buy into Mallex and even now, I'm tempted to poke holes in his game. However, when you have the back-to-back seasons that Mallex has had, it's difficult to not be impressed. While he stole 31 fewer bases in 2015 than he did the previous year, he still stole 57 bases in 70 attempts and hit .306 with a .373 OBP. The 22 year-old wasn't quite as impressive at Gwinnett after his June promotion, but that's nit-picking and I promised I wouldn't. Some think Mallex should start 2016 in Atlanta, but unless we see some trades before now and then that clear up the outfield situation, I would rather see him in Gwinnett. Even so, he's done nothing but show that he belongs in the discussion for "who should leadoff in Atlanta?"

5. Lucas Sims, RHP, Grade: B
Previous Ranks: 3, 3 

It was another mixed bag year for Sims in 2015 after struggling in the Carolina League during the previous year. Tabbed for a return trip, Sims was not impressive in 3 of his first four starts, but just as he looked to be on his way with a pair of starts and 10 K's in 13 innings, he was involved in the mid-May Mudcats bus accident. It kept him out a month and after a pair of rehab starts, he rejoined the Mudcats in July. The Braves must have been looking for any reason to promote him up the line because after a pair of mediocre efforts, he was promoted after his July 16 start where he K'd 8 in six innings. His nine starts in Mississippi were impressive, though. He K'd over a batter an inning and while he did have control issues, he kept the ball in the park. That's where he'll likely begin 2016, but he's back on track and could be one of Atlanta's biggest surprises next season.

4. Kolby Allard, LHP, Grade: B+
Previous Ranks: -, -

Pitchers with Top 10 talent don't often fall to #14, but when they do, you make the move and that's what the Braves did. After a lot of posturing where it looked like Allard might go to college rather than sign, Allard finally joined the organization and later made his professional debut in the Gulf Coast League in August. He was held to a strict pitch count and only logged six innings in three games, but he struck out 12 of the 20 he faced while allowing no walks, a hit, and hit batsman. The Braves can afford to go slow with Allard, but he's got the skillset to dominate next season. Did I mention he just turned 18 last August 13th?

Fried (Dennis Poroy | Getty)
3. Max Fried, LHP, Grade: B+
Previous Ranks: 4, 5

Nine days ago, Fried tweeted out some good news. "Officially graduated rehab!" The Braves have waited since last offseason to see Fried throw a meaningful pitch and while they will continue to wait until the season gets going, this was big. Fried was the best prospect in a trade that includes the Braves current starting second baseman (Jace Peterson) and the #6 prospect of my rankings (Smith). In his last "healthy" season of 2013, Fried K'd 100 in 118.2 ING with a 3.49 ERA at A-level Fort Wayne. Braves will likely be very cautious with Fried in 2016 so we may not see him break out until 2017.

2. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Grade: B+
Previous Ranks: -, 2 

I haven't gotten to Touki's deal in my review of the Hart/Coppolella trades, but it might be my favorite. The D'Backs effectively gave up their top pick from 2014 just to get rid of Bronson Arroyo. Crazy. His stats after the trade were inconsistent. On July 20, he threw six no-hit innings. Six days later, he gave up nine runs in 3.1 ING. Six days after that, he gave up just two hits and a run in six innings. He's a kid figuring it out, but when he can control his stuff, he is one of the best prospects in baseball, let alone the system.

Brace Hemmelgarn | Getty
1. Ozhaino Albies, SS, Grade: A- 
Previous Ranks: 8, 8

Curacao has 171.4 square miles and just over 150,000 people. If one of those 150K Curacaoians can play baseball, the Braves will find him. Albies showed up on the scene in 2014, hitting .364 with 22 steals. This year, he went to Rome, where he was among the youngest players in the league (and younger than Davidson). Albies hit all of .310/.368/.404 with 29 steals. He's undersized and doesn't have much in terms of power, but he plays a good shortstop and does everything else really well. The switch-hitter is blocked at short currently, but much like former prospect, Jose Peraza, the Braves will move him to second if needed.

Thanks for reading and tell me in the comment section where I went wrong. Oh, and be sure to visit next week when I add a player at each position to keep an eye on.

Monday, October 12, 2015

Top 30 Prospects, Post-2015 Edition - #20-11

Previous Rankings: 30-21

Last Monday, I started the post-2015 Top 30 Prospects by looking at the bottom tier. As the Braves have built for the future, naturally more talent has been added to the system. Case in point, of the ten players in my Middle Tier, nine of them joined the system after Frank Wren was fired. The system of Hart and Coppolella has taken shape over the last nearly 13 months. Remember that next week, I will publish my Top 10 prospects in the system. For those that follow the system, there should be little surprise by who makes up the Top 10 after reading this post, though the order may not line up with yours or others.

Previous ranking legend
#20, #25 ...example ranking referring to pre-2015 rank and midseason update respectively.
- ...not ranked
+1 ...made the "And One More" list as a honorable mention

20. Randy Ventura, OF, Grade: C 
Previous Rank: -, -

An aggressive ranking? You betcha. But Ventura came on the scene in a big way while playing in the Dominican Summer League. He hit a cool .329 with a superb .421 OBP with the assistance of a 35-to-27 BB/K line. What made Ventura so incredibly interesting was that in 58 games, he swiped an amazing 55 bases. He would have strolled to the organizational title without Mallex Smith in the system. Still, nobody could match his ability to steal bases at a stupid rate (55 SB in 58 G with 91 TB). One slight issue: 11 errors in less than 500 innings out in center field isn't cool, but he may have been run on at will as he also had 14 assists. Ventura could climb or fall rapidly in these rankings depending on how things go next year.

19. Andrew Thurman, RHP, Grade: C 
Previous Rank: 24, 18 

I recently included Thurman in my Evan Gattis trade review so there is going to be a lot of repetition here. For awhile there, Thurman looked like he might have been a surprise pick-up. After being a 2013 second rounder, Thurman added velocity and showed some K ability. The Braves seemed to push him to pull back in an effort to increase his control. He started the year great in Carolina, but the mid-May bus accident put his season on hold. He was never quite as good after it. Thurman ended the season by spending most of August in Mississippi to mostly bad results. The book on Thurman wasn't too dissimilar to John Gant - he's a heady pitcher who utilizes all he has to get batters out. While I don't like Thurman's chances to get into the big league picture with so many ahead of him with much more impressive stuff, he could provide depth and make for a decent trade piece if he recaptures his early-2015 luck.

CalgaryHerald.com
18. Mike Soroka, RHP, Grade: C
Previous Rank: -, -

One of the top Canadians in this year's draft, there was buzz when Soroka was selected that the Braves were looking to save money on him to help sign Kolby Allard. That ultimately didn't come to pass as Soroka was signed for slot (around $1.97M) after the draft. A tall righty who turned 18 on August 4, Soroka saw action in both the Gulf Coast League and with the Danville Braves after making his debut. Overall, he struck out 37 in 34 innings while walking just 5. Pretty impressive stuff for the Alberta product. He was sitting close to the mid-90's with a very good change-of-pace. His future will depend on the development of a third pitch, a breaking ball, to keep hitters off-balance. I didn't think much of this pick when it happened, but I have grown to love it. He could be an aggressive push to Rome next spring, though it wouldn't surprise me to see him start the year next summer in Danville.

17. Jose Briceno, C, Grade: C 
Previous Rank: 13, 14

I had high hopes for Briceno when the Braves picked him up from the Rockies in the David Hale trade. He had hit a robust .283/.336/.476 for Asheville in the South Atlantic League and if his glove caught up with his natural ability, he would be a nice catching prospect. Unfortunately, he fell on his face with Carolina this season, hitting .183 with 4 HR in 88 games. He showed a nice arm, but his hype was built on his bat and it simply didn't come with him from the Rockies' organization. The Braves system needs catching talent. Briceno is my highest ranked catcher and only two made it into my Top 30. Unless the Braves stumble onto a long-term option this winter, Briceno will have a chance to re-establish himself in 2016 in what will likely be a return to Carolina.

16. Robert Whalen, RHP, Grade: C+
Previous Rank: -, -

I like Whalen - probably more than I should. He's my lowest ranked C+ grade guy. At his best, Whalen was a pitcher who could rack up K's and groundballs. I have a strong affinity for pitchers who can do that, even though his K rate has seen a decline over his first full rookie-ball campaign. Whalen misses some strong sinking pitches with an off-speed pitch that he learned might be important after getting his head bashed in during the 2014 Arizona Fall League. He had made three starts after the trade before leaving hitting the DL with something I can't find, but a look at his Twitter shows that both of his knees were operated on. Judging by his Twitter, his rehab is going well and he'll look to stay healthy for a full season in 2016.

Povse's Twitter
15. Max Povse, RHP, Grade: C+
Previous Rank: 30, 17 

Standing 6'8", Povse is an intimidating presence on the mound and the UNC-Greensboro had a mixed bag in 2015. He was limited to just three April starts because of a DL stint, but once healthy, he had a great run going. Of his first ten starts, he allowed one or fewer runs in eight of them. After an ugly June 16 start against Hickory, he rebounded in his next start with 7 scoreless innings, no walks, and 4 K's. It was enough to get him a promotion to Carolina, but other than a quality start against the Salem Red Sox, it was pretty abysmal. His season ended after facing just five batters on July 20. He has middle-of-the-rotation ability with great sinking velocity, but his secondary options will ultimately decide if he can stick at starter.

14. Ricardo Sanchez, RHP, Grade: C+
Previous Rank: 16, 13

I recently profiled Sanchez as part of my look back at Hart's and, by extension, Coppy's Trades during their first year in power. Sanchez has stayed pretty consistent in the rankings because I didn't put much value in his numbers this season, nor have I lost the faith. I love Sanchez's high-end potential. Of course, reaching it is another thing, but if his secondary pitches develop to join his mid-90's velocity and smooth delivery, Sanchez could be joining the fold in a couple of years as yet another exciting arm on the cusp of big things.

13. Dustin Peterson, OF, Grade: C+
Previous Rank: 19, 12 

I didn't think much of Peterson when he was picked up in the Justin Upton trade, but that may have been selling him short. While one could look at a .251 average and only 8 homers and think this season was a letdown, I look at his age (20 in the Carolina League), much improved pitch recognition, and a full season in left field as plus signs from this season. Certainly, a move to left hurt his value and he remains very toolsy, but if he can put it together, he's got a great chance to rocket up these rankings and be a player to watch for the next couple of seasons.

12. Zachary Bird, RHP, Grade: C+
Previous Rank: -, -

Very little was written about Bird after the Braves acquired him in the massive trade deadline deal with the Dodgers and Marlins. A 9th rounder in 2012, the results weren't there so much as the potential. This continues to be the case as he struck out over a batter an inning this year, but walked a small village. Bird is another scouts special by the new front office which values high-end potential. He had turned 21 about two weeks before this trade, but the Braves aggressively moved him to Mississippi to finish the season. With Bird, the Braves can take their time. He's blessed with a tremendous amount of athleticism and like seemingly every Braves prospect, can flirt with 95 mph on the radar gun. The Braves will work with him to develop his off-speed stuff while aiming to help him gain control of his stuff. I like their chances to do those things.

InsideMSUSports
11. Austin Riley, 3B, Grade: C+
Previous Rank: -, -

The 41st overall selection of this year's draft, Austin Riley was looked at as a reach. He had a nice arm while playing for DeSoto Central High School in Southaven, Mississippi, but the Braves saw him more as a power bat at third. Some asked why the Braves had to pay $1.6M, or nearly 100K above slot, for a bit of a project. The results so far have only reaffirmed that the Braves know what they are doing. Riley belted seven homers for the GCL Braves in 30 games before getting a push up to Danville where the 18 year-old battered APPY pitching to the tune of .351/.443/.586 with 5 HR. Overall, he hit .304 on the year with 12 homers. He struck out a bit too much, but that's nit-picking. 12 homers in 60 games with an ISO of about .240 is pretty exciting. It would be an aggressive assignment to send him to Rome to open 2016, but I fully expect Atlanta to do that. Keep an eye on Riley. He could crack the Top 10 to stay by the end of 2016.

Next Monday, I'll have my Top 10. Did I over-rank anyone? Under-rank them? Let me know in the comments section.

Monday, October 5, 2015

Top 30 Prospects, Post-2015 Edition - #30-21

Back in March, I looked at the Top 30 prospects in the system. In July, I updated the list. Now, with the season over, it seems like a good time to look at the Top 30 once more. This version will have the 2015 draftees make their inaugural appearance. The top international signings will be left out as I don't rank without game action. Like I did with the preseason list, I'll start with the bottom tier this week, rank prospects 11-20 next week, and in two weeks, I'll finish the list with the Top 10. Also like before, I'll give one more player for each position that could play a role in the picture in 2016 once the list is finished.

This list does not mean there won't be changes this winter as Arizona Fall, winter league, and moves lead to a new Top 30 in the spring. This list should be taken as a post-2015 list, not a pre-2016 one. We also have a number of graduations. Players that graduate include traded players and guys who have lost their rookie status. Their midseason rank is included: Matt Wisler (1), Jose Pereza (4), Garrett Fulenchek (21), Dian Toscano (22), Jordan Paroubeck (23), Daniel Castro (26). Further, a handful of players simply dropped out: Alec Grosser (15), Sean Godfrey (27), Ryan Kelly (28), Wes Parsons (29), Tanner Murphy (30). 11 new players made this list so you can imagine the kind of change you'll see.

Previous ranking legend
#20, #25 ...example ranking referring to pre-2015 rank and midseason update respectively.
- ...not ranked
+1 ...made the "And One More" list as a honorable mention

30. Isranel Wilson, OF, Grade: C
Previous Rank: -, -

I recently mentioned in my review of the Tommy La Stella/Arodys Vizcaino trade that the Braves picked up considerable international signing room from that move. Wilson was one of the late signing period pick-ups by the new scouting and development team. After turning 17 in March, Wilson made his professional debut in the Gulf Coast League as one of the Braves' aggressive moves in pushing talent. He hit just .222 for the season, but got on base at a high clip (.349) and belted ten homers. Consider that only six players in the system reached double figures in homers and Wilson did it in just 48 games.

Credit: Gondeee
29. Jordan Edgerton, 3B, Grade: C
Previous Rank: +1, 25

Edgerton had some decent press heading into this year as a guy the Braves system liked a lot after being picked in the ninth round out of UNC-Pembroke the previous year. He had looked good with Danville in 2014 with a .275 average, but this year seemed to get worse the longer it continued. After a .770 OPS in April and .771 OPS in June, Edgerton fell off the map the rest of the way. In 41 games, he managed just 27 hits, including just a half-dozen extra base hits (all doubles). He became lost at the plate, striking out 36 times to just four walks. Unlike a lot of prospects the Braves have, Edgerton wasn't young for the South Atlantic League. He barely made this ranking and will need a big 2016 to get back into the picture especially with Austin Riley on his tail.

28. Jason Hursh, RHP, Grade: C
Previous Rank: 15, 16

I've never been a big fan of Hursh, but kept him in my mid-teens ranking as a sign that there must be something here I just don't see. The righty with pitchability, but not much else, stagnated in Mississippi for the second consecutive year before getting moved to the pen in July. He seemed to show a little something extra once that happened. In nine games out of the pen, Hursh went 12 innings with 3 runs allowed, two walks and 9 K's. Not great marks, but good enough to get him a promotion to Gwinnett. He got roughed up in a few games, inflating his ERA to 5.40, but he also couldn't strike out anyone. Groundball relievers have some value and certainly, there is room to compete in the Braves bullpen for 2016, but I'm not high on Hursh taking a spot. Atlanta might try to Sean Gilmartin him this offseason and find a taker.

27. Dilmer Mejia, LHP, Grade: C
Previous Rank: 26, 24

Expectations were high for Mejia this season. Debuting as a 16 year-old in the Dominican Summer League last year, Mejia posted a 0.86 WHIP in 11 starts to go with a smooth 1.68 ERA. It was enough to see the Braves make the pretty rare decision to promote him in-season out of the DSL and give him some time in the Gulf Coast League to get his feet wet. The Nicaraguan lefty returned to the GCL to begin 2015 and a lot of eyes were keeping track of him, but seven games in, something didn't feel right. Control was good and he K'd six in four innings in his final appearance, but he was soon placed on the DL and never made it back. I'm not sure what exactly it was that got him DL'd, but I'm hopeful he rounds back into form for 2016.

Joe Skipper | Getty Images
26. Daniel Winkler, RHP, Grade: C
Previous Rank: +1, +1 

Not a lot was made about the Braves' decision to select Winkler last winter in the Rule 5 draft. He would miss most, if not all, of 2015 and despite striking out a minor-league best 175 batters in 2013, his high-effort delivery and lack of overpowering stuff made him an okay prospect, but no one anyone was beating down the door for. However, Rule 5 picks are fun and small investments. If Winkler failed, the Braves didn't exactly waste much. Winkler would get activated off the DL a few weeks last month and made his debut by striking out two of the three Mets he faced on September 21. Six days later, he got a second shot, but gave up two solo homers in an inning. The Braves will still have to keep Winkler on the active roster if they want to keep him in 2016 and he'll have all winter and spring to make that decision a bit easier for Atlanta.

25. Johan Camargo, SS, Grade: C
Previous Ranks: 23, 20

Camargo is a smooth fielder like Daniel Castro, but he might never hit enough to reach Castro's level. After some impressive numbers in rookie ball between 2012-13, he's had an OBP around .310 with 45 extra base hits. He's one of the players that will get a look in Arizona this fall as a possible stepping stone to bigger things in 2016. A good run might even make him an intriguing trade piece.

24. Juan Yepez, 1B/3B, Grade: C 
Previous Ranks: +1, +1 

Yepez had a lot of doubters after being tabbed as Frank Wren's last significant international signing. The then-16 year-old out of Venezuela had power, but some questioned if he would hit enough or, even if he did, stay at the higher-value third base rather than get moved. The last criticism remains a concern as Yepez played just six games at third base in 2015, though some of that had to be because he often played on an infield with Austin Riley. Yepez did hit .299 in his first professional action between Danville and the Gulf Coast League with four homers and 16 doubles. An .822 OPS from a 17 year-old is impressive, especially when he never faced a pitcher younger than him. The Braves could still use him at third base (he started a game there in the last series), but it remains to be seen if he'll log significant time at the keystone. Either way, his power potential makes him an intriguing option that could easily jump into the Top 20 by the 2016 midseason update.

Elsa | Getty Images
23. Mauricio Cabrera, RHP, Grade: C 
Previous Ranks: 17, 19

With Cabrera, it's hard to separate the exciting potential in his right arm with the results on the field. He's a guy with triple digit velocity, but often little idea where it is headed. Before the influx of talent from last year's trades, Cabrera was a defacto Top 10 option for the system, but it would have been because of the state of the Braves system more than anything. He came on the scene in 2012 with a 2.97 ERA in 12 Danville starts, but since then, he has been hurt (a lot), ineffective (most of the time), and just maddeningly disappointing. That said, here's the good news. He's been shifted to the pen full-time, which is probably best. He turned 22 in late September so despite five years in the minors, he's still very young. He could be a guy that turns the corner and gets to the Braves bullpen next year. He could also stagnate in AA and become the right-hand version of Carlos Perez, who looked like he could be a star based on potential alone, but ultimately was cut. As for Cabrera, he will be among the Braves prospects in the Arizona Fall League. It could be a big campaign for him.

22. John Gant, RHP, Grade: C 
Previous Rank: -, -

Part of the trade that sent Kelly Johnson and Juan Uribe to the Mets, Gant was the weaker prospect at the time of the trade and spoiler alert, I still rank him as such. That didn't stop Gant from putting together a magical seven start binge to finish the 2015 season. In 40.1 ING, he K'd 43 and allowed just one homer to conclude 2015 with a 1.99 ERA as a member of the Mississippi Braves. Overall, 2014 was a rousing success for Gant, who began the season in high-A for six starts and started 18 games in AA. He had a 8.6 K/9 rate for the year. Still, I struggled to even rank him this high specifically because his game is dependent on deception and pitchability over natural stuff and talent. Nevertheless, he finished strong and will have a chance to get into the AAA picture next year.

21. Lucas Herbert, C, Grade: C 
Previous Rank: -, -

If you're curious, four 2015 draftees make my Top 30 and the lowest ranked of those is Herbert at 21st. Kolby Allard's catcher at San Clemente High School, Herbert was the Braves' second rounder and received a bonus of over a million to sign with the Braves. Unfortunately, a torn meniscus ended his first professional season after just three games, though he did get his first homer. The Braves loved his ability behind the plate and there's enough offense here to get excited. Hopefully, he's able to get healthy and show what he's capable of in 2016.

And that's it for this week! 10 players down, 20 to go. Believe that someone was under-ranked? Over-ranked? Let me know in the comment section.

Saturday, July 4, 2015

Top 30 Prospects - And One More (Midseason Update)

I posted my midseason Top 30 prospects a few days ago. A couple of names in that report were not on the preseason Top 30, but were included in the "honorable mention" article that came out a week later. I went over a player at each position, with a grade, that could be a name to keep an eye on. Chances are a couple of these guys might be in the mix for the postseason Top 30.

One note...Daniel Winkler would have been on this list as the top graded right-hand pitcher not in the Top 30, but because he was also on the preseason "And One More" list, I'm going to move to the next righty. In addition, I'll shy away from any draftees and/or international prospects. They certainly will be part of the postseason picture.

RHP Jorge Zavala, C-...Newsflash. Zavala's full-season ERA has gone north of 1.00. The righty, who was the organization's pitcher of the year in the Gulf Coast League last year, continues to show some superb pitchability. He just turned 21 last month and has a 3.5 K/BB ratio entering Friday's games. Twitter folks, get your hashtags ready. There has to be something more creative than #ReleaseTheZavala.

LHP Kyle Kinman, C-...Drafted last year in the 25th round out of Bellevue University (it's in Nebraska), Kinman has built on some solid numbers in Danville with very good numbers in Rome. Two problems. He's walked too many batters and he's 24. On the plus side, he's owned lefties and if he can stop walking a small village and get into an age-appropriate league, he could be an interesting name.

C Chris O'Dowd, D+...Catching is pretty weak behind a couple that made the Top 30 so I'm including a guy who was suspended a month ago for PEDs. Before that, O'Dowd was putting up All-Star worthy numbers for Mississippi following his trade from the Rockies in the David Hale trade. His season-slash in 26 games is .304/.429/.468. Unfortunately, that's way better than he has ever performed so the son of the former Rockies GM, Dan O'Dowd, is likely not going to surprise too many people. He's got pretty good speed. For a catcher.

1B Jake Schrader, C-...Drafted out of Tampa University in the 27th round two years ago, Schrader has followed up good numbers in Rome with impressive numbers in Carolina. Typically, back-to-back seasons with .800+ OPSs would get you more fanfare, but Schader is a bit old to be in A-ball and doesn't show much advanced plate discipline at the plate. Still, 24 HRs in his first 701 PA is pretty solid for this organization.

2B Luke Dykstra, D+...Lenny's son just saw his season begin, but there aren't many other options in the system that didn't make the Top 30 list. He's been attached with the characteristics typically handed to guys who don't have many plus tools - "gritty" and "plenty of heart." Early in his career and season, but Dykstra has a long ways to go to make my Top 30.

SS Omar Obregon, D-...Again, there aren't a wealth of attractive options. Obregon is in his fourth year in the Braves system and has yet to homer in his career, In fact, he's only had 18 extra base hits in his entire nearly 750 PA career. Still, he shows some skills at getting on base (career .362 OBP) and has played all over the infield.

3B Juan Yepez, C...Last year's top international prospect signed by the Braves, Yepez skipped a introductory season in the Dominican Summer League by heading to the Gulf Coast League to open this year. He has yet to homer, but his power is expected to be a plus. What's interesting so far with Yepez is that he's shared nearly equal time between the infield corners. His inability to stay at third has been a potential problem for Yepez's value.

OF Joseph Daris, C-...None of the next three outfielders are out of A-ball, but each rank in the Top 15 in organizational total bases. Daris was a 14th rounder out of Azusa Pacific last year. His extra base total is oddly distributed (he has more triples than doubles and homers COMBINED), but he's also added 13 steals. He largely has stuck in left field, though he can swing around to center.

OF Keith Curcio, C-...Not expected to be a big surprise this year, but Curcio raked a one-month run at Rome. He wasn't exactly repeating the level after playing just eight games there last year, but his production at Rome earned him a quick promotion to Carolina. The numbers haven't been nearly as impressive there. The Florida Southern product shows a good idea of the strikezone and is a plus athlete who has always played 22 games at second base.

OF Connor Lien, C-...Each year, the Olympia High School in Orlando, Florida 12th rounder is given a level to solve and he has improved his numbers in each year. He lacks the plate discipline of Curcio, but has profiled as a better base stealer and shown more pop. While he'll need to improve considerably to become a real prospect, the Braves appear to like Lien and he keeps advancing. What more could you ask for?

Thanks for reading and hopefully, a couple of these guys will be on the postseason list.

Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Top 30 Prospects - Midseason Update

With many minor league All-Star Games already past us, it's time to revisit my Top 30 prospect list. Several graduations and one player being removed from the list for housekeeping reasons have brought a good deal of change to the Top 30 before we even start. For that matter, since I published the list, the Braves added to the Top 30 with Matt Wisler and Jordan Paroubeck. Recently, they added another player previously unranked in Touki Toussaint. Unlike my previous publication, I won't go three posts plus a fourth one with honorable mentions, though I'm inclined to do a second "And One More" column to keep an eye toward some players who could make this list after we revisit it following the year.

A note on the new draftees - I try not to include anyone without some kind of numbers to support it. If I were, a few of them would be on the list. I'm sure they will make their debut on the postseason Top 30.

Graduations - #28 Williams Perez, #25 Cody Martin, #21 Jace Peterson, #9 Christian Bethancourt, and #5 Mike Foltynewicz. Also gone from this list is #29 Shae Simmons, who lost his rookie status last year and turns 25 in September. He doesn't fit the spirit of "prospect" for this list.

30. Tanner Murphy, C, Grade: C (Previous: #27, Grade: C)
29. Wes Parsons, P, Grade: C (Previous: Unranked, Grade: C)
28. Ryan Kelly, P, Grade: C (Previous: Unranked, Grade: Ungraded)
27. Sean Godfrey, OF, Grade: C (Previous: Unranked, Grade: C-)
26. Daniel Castro, SS, Grade: C (Previous: Unranked, Grade: C)
25. Jordan Edgerton, 3B, Grade: C (Previous: Unranked, Grade: C)
24. Dilmer Mejia, P, Grade: C (Previous: #26, Grade: C)
23. Jordan Paroubeck C+ (Previous: #21, Grade: C+)
22. Dian Toscano, C+ (Previous: #20, Grade: C+)
21. Garrett Fulenchek, C+ (Previous: #18, Grade: C+)
20. Johan Camargo, C+ (Previous: #23, Grade: C+)
19. Mauricio Cabrera, C+ (Previous: #17, Grade: C+)
18. Andrew Thurman, C+ (Previous: #24, Grade: C+)
17. Max Povse, C+ (Previous: #30, Grade C)
16. Jason Hursh, C+ (Previous: #15, Grade: C+)

15. Alec Grosser, C+ (Previous: #14, Grade: C+)...One of the more disappointing arms in the system. The 2013 11th rounder had a tidy 3.19 ERA in two seasons of rookie ball with solid numbers across the board, but has walked more than he has struck out and massively struggled with his control (super high HBP and WP numbers). He's apparently healthy so this might all be mechanical, but I liked Grosser to be a surprise this year. So far, I am as wrong as you can be.

14. Jose Briceno, C+ (Previous: #13, Grade: C+)...I was hoping for more from Briceno this year, but he has struggled from seemingly day one. Still like his offense behind the plate, but he needs to start showing more of it.

13. Ricardo Sanchez, C+ (Previous: #16, Grade: C+)...Missed some time early and his ERA is not truly indicative of his pitching so far. Braves were extremely aggressive with him and he's on a limited pitch count so his numbers this year won't be too informative.

12. Dustin Peterson, C+ (Previous: #19, Grade: C+)...I admit I wasn't a huge fan of Peterson like others. I waffled on giving him a C+ grade before. This time, I'm wondering if he warrants a B- grade. He's been a great performer for Carolina this year and with the struggles of Ruiz in Mississippi, Peterson could have been a prime candidate to get into the 3B of the Future discussion, but he was moved to left field this year.

11. Tyrell Jenkins, B- (Previous: #10, Grade: B-)...On one hand, he's been a surprising work horse for Mississippi. On the other, I'm not too excited about the numbers. A few graduations keep him in the Top 10, but for him, getting a full season under his belt is more important.

10. Braxton Davidson, B- (Previous: #11, Grade: B-)...Another aggressive push by the Braves with Davidson so young, but he has done a superb job getting on base and the power's starting to come along. The Braves moved him to right field this season and hope he might be a long-term fixture there. I'm less sure, but I'm liking things so far.

9. Mallex Smith, B- (Previous: #12, Grade: B-)...I am half-tempted to jump him to a B. Smith has done nothing but impress this year. There were concerns that his uptick in offense was a product of playing in the California League. While the power probably was, Smith has hit like crazy this year and shown his plus-plus speed.

8. Ozhaino Albies, B (Previous: #8, Grade: B-)...Certainly there are size questions with Albies, but he has done nothing but hit for Rome despite being one of the youngest players in full-season A ball. His advanced knowledge of the strikezone makes anyone who values OBP pretty excited. He doesn't turn 19 until next January.

7. Rio Ruiz, B (Previous: #6, Grade: B)...Things started off poorly for Ruiz, but he's began to start to hit. He's very young for AA so an adjustment period should have been expected. Need to see some power.

6. Manny Banuelos, B (Previous: #7, Grade: B)...ManBan has been greatly impressive with Gwinnett this year. Walks are a little troubling, but his other numbers are looking solid. He's on an innings-limit this year so we may not see Banuelos get truly unleashed until next year, but if he can finally stay on the mound, the future's looking bright for him.

5. Max Fried, B+ (Previous: #4, Grade: B+)...Tommy John victim who will probably miss the rest of the year.

4. Jose Peraza, B+ (Previous: #1, Grade: A-)...I have soured a bit on him and nearly dropped him to a B. A lack of improvement in plate discipline is really holding him back. While a move to center field cold make him a bit more interesting, I'm less sold on him than I was before.

3. Lucas Sims, B+ (Previous: #3, Grade: B+)...Sims's numbers this year look worse because he has a small sample size due to the Carolina bus crash. He was starting to really hit his stride, too. In his final two outings before the trip to the DL, Sims went 13 innings and gave up two earned runs, two walks, and K'd 10.

2. Touki Toussaint, B+ (Previous: Unranked, Grade: None)...The Diamondbacks really are the organization that just gives and gives. Why Dave Stewart and company essentially gave the Braves last year's 16th overall selection is beyond me, but the 19 year-old gives Atlanta a projectionable arm that could be a top ranked star in a year's time. Right now, his control needs work, but if he's able to find the strikezone, he has a chance to be really special.

1. Matt Wisler B+ (Previous: #2, Grade: B+)...His strikeouts are down, but his walks are practically non-existent. He went through a wonderful stretch where in six-of-seven starts, he gave up two or less earned runs. Would love to see the K's go back up. Getting his first real taste of the majors and has looked decent.

Again, I will add a "And One More" that represents a list of a player at each position to keep an eye on who isn't currently on this list. Three players from the preseason version jumped onto the Midseason Top 30. In addition, I want to thank you for reading. I know it had been about two weeks since my last post. I unfortunately lost internet due to some bad storms and it was finally fixed on Monday. Thanks for dealing with my absence and I hope to be far more active in July.

Monday, April 6, 2015

2015 Top 30: Wisler & Paroubeck's ranking

Small update on my Top 30 Prospects in the wake of yesterday's trade, which threw another wrench into what was completed a few weeks ago. Both players would slide into my Top 30, which pushes Victor Reyes and Wes Parsons out for right now (they may return in the midseason version).

I knew from the get-go that Matt Wisler would be in my Top 5, but where? My current Top 5 is Jose Peraza, Lucas Sims, Max Fried, Michael Foltynewicz, and Rio Ruiz. I grade Wisler as a B+ prospect and I'll put him second, pushing Sims back one. Peraza remains my only A- prospect, so he'll stave off the challenge and stick at the top.

As for Jordan Paroubeck, he's much more raw. However, he's a very intriguing prospect so I have him as a C+ guy right now, which covers #12 to #21. I'll place him #21 for right now, right behind Jace Peterson and in front of Johan Camargo. He has the potential, however, to jump into the Top 20 quickly and even higher. I'm trying to keep my optimism about him limited because of how young and raw he is. Chances of bust with a player like that are significantly higher than normal. Nevertheless, it's hard not to dream about how good he could be.

By midseason, we'll see the addition of a lot of draft prospects so as deep as the system is now, it has a chance to be flowing with high-end talent very shortly.

Monday, March 30, 2015

2015 Top 30: And One More (...at each position)

Previous Rankings: 30-21 | 20-11 | 10-1

Over the last three weeks, I looked at my Top 30. You can revisit those links above, but today I am going to go the extra mile even though no one asked me to and add ten more players to the mix. This isn't necessarily the first ten that were out of the mix, but one player for each position. Some of these could be sleepers who by mid-season, we might know a little more about as rising prospects in the system. Others are guys who have been around and probably are nothing better than where they are graded now, but could still find a spot with the Braves at some point.

A small note on grading...simple A-F grading scale with pluses and minuses added. To be a grade-A player, you have to be a top prospect in all of baseball and spoiler alert, there is not a grade-A guy in the system according to my grading. There is one A-, though, and a trio of B+ guys. Only 11 players received a grade of B- or better. 

RHP Daniel Winkler, C....Picked up in last winter's Rule 5 draft from the Rockies system, Winkler has tempting numbers in the minors over the last four years. In 76 starts, he has a 9.4 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, and a 1.13 WHIP. He was on his way to a nice run in the Texas League last year before having his year cut short by Tommy John. I looked into Winkler when the Braves picked him and used a bit more detail than I will here, but there's enough reason to believe Winkler will have a tough time staying healthy. Still, if you want a lottery ticket, you may as well go with the guy who led the minors in K's during the 2013 season.

LHP Yean Carlos Gil, C....Maybe the most surprising player added to the 40-man roster this offseason, Gil pitched well at Rome last year. In 126.1 ING, he kept the ball in the park (only 3 HR) while striking out 93 over 126.1 ING. That's Gil's strength is getting some natural sinking movement and turning that into grounders to his infield. To the point, he has showed thoroughly impressive control. Still, Gil was old for his level last year and his numbers aren't THAT impressive. He was probably the last or second-to-last guy that got pushed off the Top 30.

C Carlos Castro, D+....After Christian Bethancourt and Jose Briceno, the system is pretty bare of catching prospects. Castro has spent the last three years in the Dominican Summer League so his numbers last year, which were solid, are from a guy who played old for his level. He hit .308 with an .827 OPS over 49 games, which included 40 games behind the plate. Interestingly, this came a year after he moved from catcher-to-first. A right-handed hitter, Castro needs to get state side and produce to have much of a future.

1B Joey Meneses, C-....A native of Mexico, Meneses is the closest thing the Braves have to a first-base prospect in the minors right now. Last year, he hit .283 with 8 HR in 58 games with Rome, which was the second year he repeated the level. Obviously, injuries led to a reduced amount of games. Still, it was a good year that was capped off by hitting for the Cycle last May 10. Meneses could be a guy who climbs the charts with a big year in Carolina.

2B Elmer Reyes, C....I am a little surprised that Reyes, who is in his second year on the 40-man, didn't get a look this spring. Just five at-bats for Reyes, who finished with 221 PA with Gwinnett last year and overall, hit .295/.329/.422 between AA and AAA. He's a guy who could develop into a multi-positional guy with some hitting skills. Probably will never start for anyone, but could do just enough to be the 25th guy.

SS Daniel Castro, C....Unlike Reyes, Castro got a nice look this spring (16 PA) and didn't do so bad with his time (5 hits and a walk). Castro has reasonably close numbers to Reyes, but is younger and a bit better with the glove. Between Lynchburg and Mississippi, Castro hit .286/.312/.398 last year. He's hyper aggressive at the plate, but again, his glove could get him a chance to make a roster at some point.

3B Jordan Edgerton, C....I wrote about Edgerton last January and the 21 year-old out of UNC-Pembroke enters his first full season with Rome with a chance to do some stuff. He hit .275 with Danville after being drafted and his uppercut swing led to eleven sacrifice flies. He's got some pop as well and while his defense needs work, there is a lot to like about Edgerton, who might turn out as the second-best hitter from the 2014 class for the Braves.

OF Elias Arias, C-....It's hard to get excited about a 20 year-old in the Dominican Summer League where the average player is about 18, but Arias did hit .297 with 21 steals in 62 games last year. More impressive, especially from a young player with his background, was that he showed great plate discipline, walking 38 times to 39 K's. I'll get bullish about any 20 year-old who has a .406 OBP. He's a guy I hope we see in Danville in 2015.

OF Blake Brown C-....It wasn't much, but Brown finally showed some offense last year. An athletic, but raw fifth rounder in 2012, Brown hit .201 and .202 during his first two seasons in the minors, but upped that to .248 last year, including .261 with Lynchburg after earning his promotion. He showed much better plate awareness. He still struck out 120 times, but he walked 60 times and on-based .353. It'll be interesting to see how long the new scouting team buys into Brown. The 23 year-old is still pretty raw, but there's some talent there.

OF Sean Godfrey, C-....It's rare that a 22nd rounder from the previous year's draft gets even an at-bat with the big league club the next spring, but Godfrey is a rare bird. Drafted out of Ball State, Godfrey exploded as a professional, hitting .321/.358/.464 in stints with Danville, Rome, and even 11 games with the Hillcats last year. He was successful in 18 of 20 stolen base attempts and showed some range in center field. He's definitely a long shot, but he's a guy to watch in Carolina (or Mississippi if the Braves are especially aggressive).

And for extra credit, here's one bonus player.

3B Juan Yepez, Not Graded....The last big splash the Frank Wren regime had in the international market included Yepez, who was the their top target out of Venezuela last year. Standing 6'0" and 195 pounds, there was a lot to like about Yepez, who bats right-handed and has a quick bat with good power. Now, there are concerns he lacks the range to play third and will eventually be moved to first, but the Braves will deal with that if it ever happens. Hopefully, he'll make his in-game debut this summer.

Thanks for reading and I'll revisit the Top 30 sometime this summer.