Will Matt Adams be a Brave in 2018?

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When Freddie Freeman went down, the Braves started Jace Peterson at first and signed James Loney. And for a minute, we thought that was the best the Braves could do. John Coppolella changed that by acquiring Matt Adams from the St. Louis Cardinals for minor leaguer Juan Yepez. While expectations weren't great for Adams, he was clearly an upgrade over in-house options - including Loney who asked for a release. Adams, who had been stuck on the Cardinals bench after they moved Matt Carpenter to first base, would take off after arriving in Atlanta. Over 39 games while Freeman was out, he blitzed the league to the tune of .285/.333/.589 with 12 HR. So good was his performance that when Freeman was ready to return, the Braves took him up on his suggestion and moved their franchise cornerstone to third base just to keep Adams in the lineup.

That would last most of July and while Adams continued to produce, he definitely cooled down. As the calendar changed over to August, the Braves moved Freeman back to first base, leaving Adams to play left field in Matt Kemp's absence or pinch-hit. He's hit just .227 since but has bashed four homers - including two pinch-hit moonshots.

As the season rolls to an end, the Braves have a choice to make with Adams. Let's look at the options:

Trade him: Easier Said Than Done

In 2017, Adams was paid $2.8 million for his services and will be arbitration-eligible for just one more season. He's a career .270/.315/.470 hitter with 75 home runs. He falls under the spectrum of productive, but not so productive that other teams are willing to spend much in terms of assets to acquire him. The Braves traded a corner infielder who has hit just 13 home runs in 201 games and might only profile as a first baseman because his defense at third base is so suspect. First basemen without power don't tend to keep a job for very long (i.e. James Loney).

Adams does have power - a good deal of it - and can hit the ball hard. Adams currently rests just outside the Top 50 in Barrels per plate appearance, which rates the quality of contact. When he puts the bat on the ball, it has a good chance of finding a hole. Does he have .283 ISO-type power, like he has shown this year? It's probably not something he can sustain, but he qualifies as a true power hitter with a career .199 ISO. That's a big boost to his value.

However, several things are working against the Braves as they consider dealing Adams.

• He's platoon-dependent. Over his career, Adams has a .256 wOBA against lefties. It's just as miserable this season at .244. Unfortunately, every team has access to Fangraphs so they also have this information. Acquiring Adams only works if you can match him up with a right-handed hitter who mashes lefties in the Matt Diaz mold. 
• He's position-dependent. Adams is a fine first baseman. He's not gifted at the position by any means, but since 2014, Adams actually profiles better than Freeman as a first baseman (4.8 UZR/150, 17 rPM, 15 DRS). Nobody is paying anyone for first baseman defense, though. Adams has played just 129.1 innings in left field and we simply can't gauge much of anything of his numbers, but the eye test suggests that Adams is probably going to be a negative defensively. It's too much of a stretch to believe he can play anywhere else. He's a first baseman who might play left field for you in a pinch. That limits his value to NL clubs who know they are going to have to platoon him. The AL teams that could have interest do have the DH, which opens up more possibilities.
• He's under team control for just 2018. The Braves paid next-to-nothing to acquire Adams and that was with a year-and-a-half of team control. The team acquiring Adams will have even less.

None of these conditions will erase any chance the Braves have of trading Adams, but they certainly limit the opportunities. One thing could work in their favor, though. Of the 21 full-time qualified first basemen this season, five are free agents. Two others, Lucas Duda and Mike Napoli, didn't qualify but have been regulars in the lineup and could also be free agents this offseason (Napoli has an option). Further, a DH like Carlos Beltran will also hit the open market. In addition, the Angels are a team that might entertain the idea of improving their first base production after a combined 0.7 fWAR from C.J. Cron, Luis Valbuena, and Jefry Marte. Suffice it to say, the market is theoretically available for Adams.

That said, a number of open jobs at first base/DH doesn't mean the same thing as open jobs in center field or at shortstop, positions where the market is depressed by so few capable players at the position. A number of the free agents this offseason with history at first base were also free agents last year. This is because most teams look at first base in this regard - it's great if you have a Freeman, but if you don't, you can find something that will work. You don't even need to be in a rush. The Rays signed Logan Morrison a week before spring training for nearly $2 million less than they paid him the previous year. It worked out pretty well for them and they weren't alone. The first base market rarely invites huge paydays because teams can just wait it out and go bargain shopping.

With Adams likely to earn $4M to $5M in arbitration, would any team really spend assets to acquire a guy that resembles several free agents that are already available and won't require a prospect? For that matter, they could be even cheaper than Adams. This is a problem the Braves will face in regards to dealing Adams this winter.

Non-Tender Him: But Why?

The Braves could see Adams as a luxury they can do without and simply non-tender him to open a 40-man roster spot. Such a decision would be a mistake in my view.

At $5M or so, Adams is an expensive bench piece, but the Braves will probably be able to deal with that. If they don't sign a third baseman - and Ronald Acuna takes over in right field as many expect - the Braves will open the season with half of their position starters earning the major league minimum. It would be a fair assumption that two of their rotation members will also make the minimum. Paying $5M for a bench player becomes much more bearable when you aren't spending heavily at other positions.

Beyond that, Adams does have value - value that would be wasted as a non-tendered free agent. I mentioned many of the negatives earlier because that hurts his trade value, but his offensive value is still quite apparent as he has a .335 wOBA since 2013. That ranks 74th among 238 players and it's better than Adam Jones, Beltran, Todd Frazier, and Evan Gattis. And since we know that he's a platoon player, we can reasonably assume that his wOBA would only look better if you limited it to facing right-hand pitching. And why assume when we can just look it up? Since 2013, Adams' .355 wOBA against right-hand pitching ranks 59th of 482 players (min. 370 PA against RHP).

If the Braves were in a financial crunch, I'd understand non-tendering Adams if a trade market never materialized - which is a real possibility. But I don't believe Atlanta will have to worry about that so why not keep Adams? Further, perhaps a trade market would come together as players go down or don't perform after spring camp opens up. Regardless, just cutting Adams is short-sighted and I think more of John Coppolella than that.

Keep Him: Cause Why The Hell Not?

If the Braves can't trade Adams and non-tendering him is a dumb move, that leaves the third option - keep him. And frankly, it might be the best option available even if Atlanta gets much interest in Adams this offseason.

The Braves are unlikely to trade Matt Kemp this winter. It'd be great if they can, but the sheer amount of financial responsibility the Braves would have to shoulder just to unload Kemp might be too much for the Braves to accept. Trading Nick Markakis to open up a spot for Acuna seems like the easier and more likely play. That leaves Atlanta to hope Kemp loses all the weight, keeps it off, and performs once again. Pretty much the same thing they hoped for last winter.

Whatever the case, the Braves seem stuck here. Here's the thing, though. If you are willing to play Kemp in left field with all of his atrocious defense, why wouldn't you also be willing to play Adams out there? Both players need a defensive caddy (Hi, Lane Adams!) and with Kemp seemingly always dealing with hamstring and knee issues, having Matt Adams' bat around could be useful for the Braves. Yeah, the defense sucks, but honestly, Adams could be better than Kemp defensively. Here's a fun stat for all of you Josh Browns of the world. Sprint speed is measured by feet per second. 447 players qualify currently and ranking 398th is Kemp with a sprint speed of 25.6 ft/sec. Adams is slightly quicker at 26.1 ft/sec. While speed isn't everything (Ender Inciarte ranks 173rd overall), there's at least an argument that Adams is a comparable - maybe even better - left fielder than Kemp. Probably not better, but Kemp is so bad that Adams can't be any worse. Presumably, with even more time in left field, Adams stands a shot at improving. Not a good one, but we know Kemp isn't going to get any better.

Pinch-Hit Homers by the Braves

Remember when I said that keeping Adams maybe even better than trading him? Think about what the Braves might get for trading Adams. Well, we don't really know that, but we can make the reasonable assumption that it won't be greater than what the Braves gave up to originally acquire him. That would mean Atlanta would likely receive a borderline Top 75 prospect in this organization. Probably something between what they received for Jaime Garcia (Huascar Ynoa) and Brandon Phillips (Tony Sanchez). Now, that player could be a fun project, but it's probably going to be a guy who won't ultimately play for the Braves or turn into a good tradeable asset. And by the way...the Braves' lower minor league teams are already packed with project players.

Keeping Adams gives the Braves a bat off the bench - something they lacked when the 2017 season opened - who provides depth at 1B and LF. That depth could be important when you consider that Freeman has missed about 80 games to injury over the last three years (including a healthy 2016). Conversely, Kemp bends over and misses two weeks. That's being mean, but having Adams for depth could be useful to help the Braves should either player go down. Further, Adams could fetch a better prospect from a desperate team later. That last part is wishful thinking, but it's not impossible.

In the end, short of being surprised on the trade market this offseason, the best bet is to keep Adams moving forward into the 2018 season. Do you agree? Let me know in the comment section.

Baseball's Weirdest Rule 5 Situation

What better way to explain service time than with the hottest prospect to come through the Braves system since Jason Heyward? For that matter, what better way to explain arbitration than with the strangest case that we've seen over the last number of years?

In professional baseball, you earn two different kinds of "time." The one that everyone gets from a rookie-league ballplayer to R.A. Dickey relates to how long you have been a professional. This is especially important when it comes to things like the Rule 5 draft and minor league free agency. For instance, after seven seasons in the minors, you can become a minor league free agent. Oddly, we call them "six-year minor league free agents" despite needing seven years. Baseball is strange.

The other kind of time a player earns - which is far more important to this article - is service time. This refers to each day spent in the major leagues. Under the new CBA, there are 187 days to fit in a 162-game schedule. However, you are still credited with a day of service time during those off days. In fact, a full season is referred to as 172 days in the major leagues - which did not change in the CBA despite the added days to the MLB calendar year. Think of this way - as long as a player didn't use an option that season (i.e. 20 days in the minors), he likely earned a year of service time if he was with the team in April.

You receive service time while on the active roster, the disabled list, the restricted (or suspended) list, and...well...any list. As long as you haven't been optioned to the minors, your service time is climbing. Hence why some teams have tried to play the system against itself. In 2015, the Chicago Cubs waited exactly 13 days to call up Kris Bryant. Under the previous CBA, there were 184 days in a calendar season. As Bryant was not on the 40-man roster to begin the season, by pushing his debut off nearly two weeks, the 2015 Rookie of the Year received 171 days of service time in 2015. That's a day short of a full season. Chicago said all the right things about Bryant needing to work on some parts of his game, but the decision was made with the 2021 season in mind. Had the Cubs opened the season with Bryant on the major league roster, he would have become a free agent after 2020 as players with six years of service time in the majors at the end of any given season can become free agents should they not be signed beyond that season. Believing it was more beneficial to them to keep him in the minors, they did just that.

Should the Braves follow suit with Ronald Acuna? There is a lot of talk about bringing him up in September and why not? Over three stops from High-A ball to Triple-A, Acuna has hit .320/.374/.539 with 28 doubles, eight triples, 20 homers, and 37 steals. His numbers have improved at each stop and despite being about eight years younger than the International League, Acuna has an OPS of 1.021 with Gwinnett over 34 games. He's not only the top prospect in the Braves' system but has a solid claim to the best prospect in baseball and he's just 19 years-old.

Bringing him up now would sacrifice a potential extra year of team control. There are other concerns, but provided Acuna stays in the majors, he would reach free agency after 2023. If the Braves waited until sometime in late April of next season to bring Acuna up, they would follow the Bryant route and gain an extra year of team control while merely sacrificing a few weeks of the 2018 season with their top prospect in Triple-A. The Braves have historically not concerned themselves with that, though. I mentioned Heyward and he opened his rookie season in the starting lineup on opening day. By that September, Freddie Freeman joined the team for a cup of coffee. Last August, Dansby Swanson was surprisingly brought to the majors, which started his clock early. In fact, the last time I remember the Braves really concerning themselves with service time came in 2009.

Tommy Hanson was absolutely dominant with Myrtle Beach and Mississippi in 2008 as a 21-year-old. He finished the season by crushing the Arizona Fall League with a 0.63 ERA over 28.2 innings and 49 strikeouts. Over 14.2 innings the following spring, Hanson had a 2.45 ERA with 14 strikeouts. But it was Jo-Jo Reyes who was named the fifth starter. Predictably, he failed and in mid-May, the Braves made a change. Hanson had a 1.70 ERA and 64 strikeouts in 47.2 ING over his first eight starts, but the Braves passed on bringing him up from Gwinnett. They instead called on Kris Medlen, who had been nearly as excellent but wasn't considered a top prospect. Medlen would get three starts until June 7, when the Braves finally brought up Hanson.

All of this was done for one reason - arbitration. Had the Braves opened the season with Hanson as the fifth starter, not only would he have gotten to free agency a season quicker, he would have gotten paid a lot quicker as well. Players become arbitration-eligible after three seasons on a MLB roster. The Braves passed and continued to pass even after gaining the extra year of team control. That was done to get him past the expected date for Super 2 arbitration-eligible players. Super 2 refers to players with two years of service time plus a lot more. Basically, you group all of the players with more than two years of service time, but less than three years in a given season. You take the top 22% of that list and it gives you a threshold. Anyone above that threshold reaches arbitration early. That threshold differs, but it typically lands somewhere in the 2 years and 120-to-150 days area. Remember Bryant from earlier? Despite the fact that the Cubs bought an extra year before free agency, he will still reach salary arbitration this year. And the three years after it. Hence why Super 2 guys can get really expensive. Since arbitration-eligible players rarely fail to receive a nice bump in pay, it gets pretty costly the third time around even for just good players. Add a fourth year and players often are getting plenty of bank. One such player for the Braves this offseason will be Mike Foltynewicz, who will likely have 2 years and 163 days of service time. While the Super 2 cutoff hasn't been decided for 2017, it's unlikely to be higher than 163 days.

The entire reason I bring up service time and arbitration today is related to Dan Winkler. Back in December of 2014, the Braves selected Winkler in the Rule 5 draft. They knew he would miss of the next season after having Tommy John surgery. When a Rule 5 player is injured and misses time the next season, they still have to log at least 90 days on the active roster to fulfill their Rule 5 eligibility. If they fail to reach 90 days in their first season as a Rule 5 guy, they must finish off the remaining time the next season before being eligible to be optioned to the minors. In Winkler's case, as we know, it gets complicated.

Winkler was activated off the DL in 2015 on September 10. Between that day and the end of the season, he logged 24 days on the active roster. The following season, he was on the active roster for eight days before fracturing his elbow. In two seasons, he had 32 days of service time - or nearly two months short of what he would need to satisfy the Rule 5 requirement of 90 days.

The right-hander is currently on his second rehab assignment this season, which has required approval because pitchers only receive 30 days on rehab assignments. Winkler's most recent rehab assignment began 12 days ago. If he has been granted a second rehab assignment of 30 days, the Braves would be able to keep him in the minors until September 1 without having to make a move with the current roster. The season runs through October 1, which would get Winkler to 31 days of active roster time for this season and 55 overall. That leaves an additional 35 days of active roster time he would need to reach in 2018 to satisfy his Rule 5 requirements.

But...he'll also be arbitration-eligible. Yep, even though Winkler has thrown four innings in the majors, he'd be eligible for arbitration even if he went back on the DL for the rest of the year. Earlier, I said players get credit for service time while on the DL. Even though Winkler has pitched 13 times this season in the minors, it's all came under rehab assignments, which means he's still on the major league DL. That would mean Winkler would reach 172 days of service time this season on or about September 15, which would give him three years of service time in the major leagues.

But why stop this extra-strength convoluted exercise now? Let's go over the Braves' options.

I don't remember a case even close to this so this is my best-educated guess.

The Braves could non-tender Winkler, but as far as I know it, non-tender players become official in early December. That might be longer than the Braves would like to go with Winkler taking up space on their roster if they already plan on getting rid of him.

Atlanta could outright Winkler to the minors, but there are a few hang-ups there as well. One, to get him off the 40-man roster, they would need to waive him, offer him to the rest of the league, and, provided he passed through waivers, offer him back to the Rockies. If the other 29 teams passed, the Braves could attempt to outright him to the minors, but as an arbitration-eligible player, Winkler would have the right to elect free agency. As a free agent, the Braves could still try to sign him as a minor league free agent if they so wanted. For that matter, they could simplify the process and release Winkler and then sign him. If he accepted an assignment to the minors after being outrighted or signed as a minor league free agent and either came before the Rule 5 draft, he'd actually be eligible in the 2018 Rule 5 draft.

The Braves could also elect to offer arbitration. After all, how much could Winkler ask for and what could his agent argue? That he's been a good patient? For his part, Winkler has looked much sharper since beginning another rehab stint with Gwinnett and was very impressive to open last season. As he is unlikely to receive significantly more than the major league minimum through arbitration, he still could be a good bet to receive an arbitration tender.

Fortunately, few cases are crazier than Winkler and most are much simpler. Joining Winkler and Foltynewicz among this year's arbitration-eligible players for the first time will be Sam Freeman, Danny Santana, and Jace Peterson. Another player, Jose Ramirez, seems like a good bet to also reach Super 2 status. Ian Krol, Rex Brothers, Arodys Vizcaino, and Matt Adams will also be arbitration-eligible. Much of this group seems likely to receive a non-tender - including Winkler. Should that happen, the next team won't even have to worry about Rule 5 eligibility with Winkler. That should keep the complications down to a minimal.

Yet Another Ronald Acuna/Andruw Jones Piece - But This One is Different!

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

I am on the record with this. I love Ronald Acuna. He makes my heart flutter. When he hits a home run, to quote Bowling for Soup, "all the wind blows and the angels sing." He's the greatest thing since sliced bread. In fact, he's like pretzel bread, which as we all know, improves bread to another level. Ronald Acuna is hope and hope is good.

But the Braves have, as our own Stephen Tolbert said a few weeks back, a corner outfield problem. Worse, it is a problem that could - I repeat, could - continue into 2018. Where would Acuna fit in if the Braves are incapable of finding a trading partner willing to take on Matt Kemp's salary and/or Nick Markakis's...Markaisian averageness? Should the Braves simply take their losses and release Kemp or Markakis (likely the latter) just to open up a spot for Acuna? Should he stay in the minors until the Braves find a taker for one of their older corner outfielders - despite unreal numbers this season?

Here's the thing, Braves fans. The Braves don't have to have an either/or. They can have a team next year that includes Kemp, Markakis, and Acuna. Just so you don't freak out, Ender Inciarte also fits into this arrangement. And what's even better is that the Braves have done it before

You've probably seen a lot - and I mean A LOT - of comparisons between Andruw Jones and Acuna. Both climbed from A-ball to Triple-A in their Age-19 seasons. Both were dynamic outfielders and elite prospects in baseball. Whether these comparisons are fair or not, they are inevitable. There are just too many similar factors here. And why stop now? Why not follow what the Braves did in 1997 with the then 20-year-old Andruw Jones? Why not use Acuna as the fourth outfielder for a year?

I know what you're thinking - the Braves won't do that because Acuna is too valuable to be wasted in a fourth outfielder role. It's also difficult to see a possibility where Acuna isn't better than either Kemp nor Markakis in 2018. And for the record, I don't mean Acuna should be the fourth outfielder in a way Lane Adams is a fourth outfielder. I mean only to use Acuna like Andruw Jones was used in 1997.

Let's flashback to that year for a second. While every Braves fan remembers 1996 and Andruw homering twice in the Bronx during the World Series, the Braves didn't hand the young man a spot in the starting lineup to begin 1997. It's why Michael Tucker had an opportunity to hit the first home run in Turner Field history. The Braves opened the season with a platoon between Tucker and Andruw. When he wasn't in the starting lineup, Andruw would play often in a pinch-hitting/defensive replacement role. Of the first 25 games, he played in 24. He remained in that timeshare until mid-June, when Kenny Lofton went down with an injury. It allowed Andruw the shot to play nightly. When Lofton returned, Andruw was relegated back into his backup role, filling in against left-hand pitching, playing defense in right and left, and occasionally spelling Lofton in center field. He started 96 games - fewer than Tucker, Lofton, and Ryan Klesko - but more than one might expect for a fourth outfielder. He also played an additional 51 games in the field for a total of 147 games of experience in the outfield. Add that with six more games in a pinch-hitting capacity and Andruw Jones actually finished second on the 1997 Braves in games played.

Now, does this situation compare to a potential 2018 Braves' squad? You better believe it. Consider these two scenarios.

Scenario #1 - The Braves Can't Find a Taker for Kemp

This possibility is a likelihood at this point. Many who questioned the Hector Olivera trade last summer pointed out that Kemp's value was only going down. This season, he has been a replacement level player due to atrocious defense and bad baserunning metrics. His offense isn't bad (though a rising groundball rate is troubling), but the belief that he was a changed man after coming over from the Padres is a bit overblown. He's essentially the same player as he was in 2015, his first season in San Diego.

Kemp has been durable to an extent, but many would argue that has been to the club's detriment. Kemp plays hurt - largely because his knees are shot and though he's still just 32, it seems like he's much older. Still, he averaged 153 games in the three years before this so he knows how to stay in the lineup. Two trips to the DL this season, though, and nagging injuries throughout the season point to the possibility that his 150-game seasons might be a thing of the past. That's actually not the worst thing, by the way. Players with Kemp's issues need regular rest to make them better able to deal with a long season.

Since the Braves are unlikely to find a team with much interest in sharing the burden of the nearly $40 million the Braves are on the hook for over the next two seasons, Kemp seems likely to return in 2018. Wouldn't it be nice to have both a capable defender able to hide Kemp in late games and a capable hitter able to contribute offensively? Do you really feel it's out of the realm of possibility that Atlanta will need a contingency plan should Kemp miss a month or more of the 2018 season? Acuna provides a ready replacement.

There's also the possibility of keeping Matt Adams and giving him at-bats to keep Kemp fresh. I'm not sure that it makes a lot of sense to keep two guys who still couldn't cover left field even if MLB allowed the Braves to play both at the same time, but I understand the whole "if Kemp is bad at defense, does it matter that Adams also is?" Nevertheless, the team could still use a defensive replacement for either.

Scenario #2 - Markakis Attracts a Lukewarm Market

Nick Markakis (2015-Present)
vs.	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA	wRC+
RHP	.290	.378	.412	.341	112
LHP	.256	.308	.324	.280	71

Since coming to Atlanta, Nick Markakis has wRC+ of 71 and a .280 wOBA against left-hand pitching. That's abysmal. Hiding that with Acuna would definitely be useful in a world where Markakis might not attract a lot of attention on the open market should the Braves attempt to deal him. Further, Markakis's defense, while not as severely detrimental to the team as Kemp's, remains an issue for Atlanta.

The Braves could - and probably would - be open to paying down some of Markakis's $10.5M remaining salary, but for what? A no-name prospect? Say what you will about Markakis and I have, but the guy is consistent, durable, and consistent. Yes, I know I said that twice, but compliments work best in threes and I couldn't think of another one. With the very real possibility of Kemp going down for significant time in 2018, do the Braves really want to lose Markakis, who again is durable (and consistent)?

Now, you might say that these two scenarios don't exist in a vacuum and you would be right. The Braves could trade Markakis, for example, and sign a good enough outfielder or platoon Dustin Peterson and Lane Adams to deal with any possible injury to Kemp. For that matter, Kemp could stay relatively healthy. Furthermore, Matt Adams is the mix as well (though his numbers have fallen considerably since his big start with the Braves). You might even say, "why put off the inevitable? Ronald Acuna is the future and the future is ready to begin."

It's a tough argument to counter. Playing Ronald Acuna every day is certainly more exciting than watching either the consistently durable Markakis or the kneeless Kemp meander around the outfield. But is it best for the player? I'll use two examples here. First, let's look back at Andruw Jones. He spent a year playing nearly every game, but only starting slightly more than half. Did it stunt his growth? Not even a little. He improved across the board the following season and was an All-Star three years later. While many would argue that Andruw never reached the potential we set out for him, it didn't change the fact that he had a very productive - and possibly Hall of Fame worthy - career.

The other example is Dansby Swanson. Like Acuna, Swanson was an exciting player who rushed through the minors. He was hyped up as the future Derek Jeter and a frontrunner for the 2017 Rookie of the Year. But baseball happened. Now, the Braves are simply trying to jump-start Swanson so he can pivot into 2018 on a high note. If such a thing happened to Acuna, wouldn't it be nice to be able to have Markakis and Kemp in-house? Sure, neither are world beaters, but what are the chances that another Johan Camargo bails out the Braves here?

In the end, I would simply say this - I love Acuna as a player. I want only success for the young man. I believe in him. I also think that maybe the best way of bringing him to the big time is in a smaller role. Again, I'm not saying give him 200 plate appearances like you might a typical fourth outfielder. He'd play often as a platoon bat in right field, keeping Kemp fresh in left field, and giving Inciarte breathers in center field. He'd be part of the mix, not a traditional backup. And either through a midseason trade of Kemp or Markakis or the latter leaving after 2018, Acuna would simply slide into a starting spot.

It worked for Andruw. More than 20 years later, it's time to try it again with Acuna.

Ronald Acuna Not Getting Called Up? Maybe That's Good

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

John Hart stopped by with Chip Carey and Joe Simpson during Wednesday night's game to talk about a host of issues. During it, we found out that Ronald Acuna was unlikely to be called up this year. Why not, you might wonder. Acuna is one of the best prospects in baseball and he has a .423 wOBA at Triple-A? Why not bring him up to get his feet wet? Because of the 40-man roster concerns this winter, that's why. Now whether or not the Braves follow through and refuse the temptation to call up Acuna this season - baseball general managers are notorious for changing their mind on a dime - the reality of the situation has some factual basis. With that in mind, today I want to look at the potential 40-man roster concerns after this season.

Just a few reminders. Every team has two rosters - the Active roster (usually 25-man) and the 40-man roster. Everyone on the Active roster is also on the 40-man roster. The other 15 players are a mixture of minor leaguers and - typically - injured major leaguers currently on the 10-day DL. Once a player is placed on the 40-man roster, he will typically remain on it until one of three things happens - he no longer is under contract by the organization, he is designated for assignment (and waived), or he is on the 60-day DL. That last designation doesn't clear jo, for good, though. When a player is able to return from the 60-day DL, he either has to be placed on the 40-man roster or designated for assignment and exposed to the other teams via waivers. But I'm not telling you anything you don't already know, right?

With all of that in mind, let's dive in. Atlanta's 40-man roster currently has 39 players on it. This is a common practice by the Braves, who like to keep a spot open in case it's needed to make an immediate move (waiver pickup, call-up, etc). You might say that there is an open spot so why not bring up Acuna? We'll get back to that.

Of those 39 players, the Braves "control" 36 of them into next season. That's just a way of saying that it's up to the Braves whether or not they bring back the player in 2018. For most of the players, they are either arbitration-eligible or will have their contracts renewed because they haven't reached arbitration. In the case of Tyler Flowers and R.A. Dickey, the Braves hold options to retain their services. Others like Julio Teheran, Ender Inciarte, and Matt Kemp have contracts that guarantee them a salary in 2018. Immediately, you might see a problem. All but four spots are already locked up for next year's 40-man roster? Isn't that kind of tight?

But that's not all. It gets even tighter when you take into account the players on the 60-day DL right now like Jacob Lindgren, Armando Rivero, and Dan Winkler. Regardless of their injury situation at the end of the season, the Braves will have to transfer them to the 40-man roster or risk losing them. Say that they do. Now, we're back to that 39 number. Only one spot empty.

Of course, the Braves aren't going to bring back all 39 of these players. There will be trades, guys will get non-tendered, and others will be designated for assignment to make room and we'll address some of the players most likely to be in the mix for that. You might think the Braves will be searching for room for free agents, but the primary reason people will be shuffled off the 40-man roster at the end of the season will be to allow the Braves to keep players who would be otherwise eligible to be selected in the Rule 5 draft.

Quick reminder - players eligible for the Rule 5 draft are typically those that were younger than 19 on June 4 of their signing year five years ago or players who were 19 or older on June 4 of their signing year four years ago. In the simplest terms, that's typically high schoolers/international signees from 2013 or college-age draftees from 2014. There are exceptions, but let's not get too bogged down with the details just yet.

In practical terms, let's see what this means for the Braves. Some of the most noteworthy players to be eligible for the Rule 5 draft this season include five players who made our Midseason Top 50 in Luiz Gohara, Travis Demeritte, Dustin Peterson, Tyler Pike, and Caleb Dirks. I want to point out that Pike is a little different because he's been eligible before. A few others include Tanner Murphy, Michael Mader, and Omar Obregon, but let's focus on just the five I mentioned a couple of sentences ago. If the Braves want to protect all five from being drafted, that adds to the 39 players I counted before. So, with that, we're four players over and the Braves haven't signed anyone yet.

Again, many of these players will be shuffled off the roster through the various means of removing a player from the 40-man. One common tool is to non-tender an arbitration-eligible player. Who's getting Arby this year? This list includes Matt Adams, Arodys Vizcaino, Ian Krol, Rex Brothers, and potential first-year arbitration players like Danny Santana, Mike Foltynewicz, and possibly Sam Freeman. Interestingly enough, there is a possibility that Winkler will be eligible for arbitration. Yeah. Of this list, we know Adams, Vizcaino, and Foltynewicz will be offered arbitration. The Braves could bring back others, but do their performances deserve raises in pay due to arbitration? Let's say the Braves pass on the other players on the list and we're back to 39 players on the 40-man roster.

The Braves can shave some others off the list by designating them for assignment. Prime candidates for that might include Lane Adams, Enrique Burgos, Adonis Garcia, and Micah Johnson.

At that point, the Braves would have room to acquire players ahead of the Rule 5 draft and still have a chance to dip their toes in the water for that draft should they want to.

I started this article by talking about Acuna so let's get back to him. Say the Braves call him up now. While it makes for a great story as Acuna began the year in High-A ball, it also makes all of this 40-man roster maneuvering all the more difficult. Unlike Gohara and Demeritte, the Braves don't have to place Acuna on the 40-man roster this offseason. A similar thing happened in 2009. As the Braves struggled through a final couple of months with Garret Anderson, Nate McLouth, and Matt Diaz/Ryan Church playing the outfield, many wanted the Braves to call up Jason Heyward. He destroyed the ball with Mississippi before ending the year with Gwinnett. Certainly, he's a better option than watching a substandard outfield fail to produce.

The Braves stressed that J-Hey wasn't ready, but the bigger reason was the Braves could use the 40-man roster room. Heyward wasn't placed on the 40-man roster until right before opening day the next spring. That gave the Braves a little more room to make decisions that offseason. Calling up Acuna before the end of this season might make the fans happy, but it will also make choices after the World Series a bit tougher.

What do you think? Do you think the Braves should just put together the best roster regardless of 40-man and Rule 5 concerns or should the Braves give an appropriate amount of consideration to these factors to not compound the issues they will already have keeping this amazing collection of young talent together? I look forward to hearing what you have to say. As a fan, I want to see Acuna sooner rather than later. As a fan who tries to stay informed, I'll wait. The Braves have enough complicated decisions this offseason.

Saturday Stats Pack: Kemp, Vizcaino, Acuna, Soroka

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Matt Kemp Is Double Play City

We quantify everything nowadays. It's not enough to count each instance of a double play. We now have Weighted Grounded Into Double Plays. What this number tries to do is not only count the number of times a player grounds into double play, but also credit the times that he doesn't. It's used in fWAR, by the way. Unsurprisingly, the best at this are guys who hit a lot of flyballs like Cody Bellinger and Joey Gallo. Matt Kemp isn't in that camp. He's near 50% in groundballs - not a particularly good thing when you aren't known for your speed. Unsurprisingly, Kemp ranks extremely poorly in wGDP. Again, this isn't shocking because he leads the league in GDP anyway, but wGDP goes that extra mile so it's worth a look as well. Kemp's wGDP is -3.1 It's already the worst mark of his career.

Folty Playing With Fire

Line drives are a path to struggles for a pitcher. Not only are they massively dangerous, but their tendency to become hits makes them incredibly problematic. In 2014, hitters batted .685 with a .684 wOBA on line drives. That's compared to a .220 wOBA on grounders and a .335 wOBA on flyballs. Mike Foltynewicz has a line-drive rate of 24%, the ninth highest such rate among starters entering play Friday. The Top 10 in this category is full of pitchers with around a 4.50 ERA or higher like Scott Feldman, Johnny Cueto, Justin Verlander, and Jeff Samardzija. Worse - over the last three years - Foltynewicz ranks third behind just Adam Wainwright and Jeremy Hellickson in line-drive rate. It's difficult to be a success when so many balls are hit hard. It's not impossible, but very difficult. unlike many of those pitchers, one advantage Foltynewicz has is his youth. He still has room to grow.

Dansby is Clutch?

Recently, I went over the Clutch statistic - a mixture of Win Probability Added with the leverage index of a situation taken into account. The Top 10 in Clutch this season includes some predictable names like Nolan Arenado, Kendrys Morales, and even Albert Pujols. It also includes two Braves. Brandon Phillips ranks 7th and Dansby Swanson ranks ninth. Considering the terrible year Swanson has had which has led to a recent demotion, that might be surprising. Well, don't get too excited. It's based largely on 36 PA in high leverage situations this season for Swanson. He's 9-for-29 with four doubles, seven walks, and seven strikeouts in those moments. 36 PA is hardly a notable sample size, but for us fans of Swanson, it's nice to find something good he ranks in the top 10 of.

Vizcaino's Heat Overshadows His Out Pitch

Since finally putting the arm troubles in the rear view (for the most part) that plagued him during his time with the Cubs, Arodys Vizcaino has continued to show that there are few pitchers in the game with his kind of velocity. Over the last three years, he's averaged 98.3 mph on his fastball. Only six other relievers have averaged at least 98 mph. But Vizcaino's story isn't his velocity. It's great, but his most effective pitch his is curveball. Over the last three years, it's ranked ninth among relievers in pitch value - largely built on the seventh best vertical movement among bullpen guys during that time frame. So, while we are all in awe over what Vizzy's heater can do, it's ultimately a show-me pitch. It's the curveball that pays the bills.

Swing-Happy

It's no secret that Brandon Phillips is not a guy who will stay in the batting box for long. Only 4.3% of his plate appearances have ended in a walk this season and his strikeout rate of 12.1% is also rather low. Phillips is up there to swing and the results bear that out. Of hitters with at least 200 PA this season, Phillips's swing percentage is 10th at 55.8%. In fact, the Braves are attempting a radical strategy of keeping SunTrust Park cool by swinging early-and-often. Matt Kemp is 20th at 53.5%, Freddie Freeman is 22nd with 53.3%, Matt Adams is 26 at 52.6%, and Ender Inciarte is 32nd at 52.3%. Shockingly, the Braves entered play Friday with the fourth lowest walk percentage in baseball.

Morris Rolling

He's only tossed 7.1 innings in the majors to this point, but something we saw out of Akeel Morris in the minors is translating to continued success in the majors. No other pitcher in Gwinnett was getting more swinging strikes than Morris. In fact, 16% of his pitches resulted in a whiff at Gwinnett. So far in the majors, that number is 14.3%. That could hint toward continued success for Morris.

At Least As Good As Adonis?

Freddie Freeman surpassed 100 innings at third base this week and we might be able to begin to grade him. Well, not really as 100 innings is way too low of a sample, but it's all we have. For instance, we can say that Freeman compares decently to one of the players no longer manning third base - Adonis Garcia. Now, this isn't fair because we're comparing over 1700 innings to 100, but Freeman compares positively in some regards (DRS, rPM, RZR) with Garcia. Of course...Garcia is not considered a good defender at third base...

Acuna Just Getting Better

Ronald Acuna's year has been off-the-charts awesome. It began with a winter-league run in Australia where he earned the moniker "The Answer to Everything." He then hammered the Florida State League for a .370 wOBA over 28 games before being promoted to Double-A. Once there, his numbers improved a bit more and he earned another promotion to Triple-A. But you all know this already. What may not be as well known is the improvement he's made at each level. Take all of this with a grain of salt because of short sample sizes, BUT...with each promotion, his walk rate has improved from 6.3% to 7.4% to 10.6% entering Friday. With each promotion, his strikeout rate has declined from 31.7% to 23.0% to 21.2%. In addition, his ISO has shown some improvement from .191 to .195 to .228. These three numbers are as exciting to me as any power or speed numbers he's posted to this point. They suggest he's only progressing.

Soroka's Control

One of the best minor league stories in baseball has been the success of Mike Soroka at Double-A despite being just 19 years-old. One of the most efficient pitchers in the minor leagues, Soroka just doesn't walk batters. By that, I mean he's walked just 4.7% of opposing hitters. Considering his 2.99 FIP, that suggests Soroka is not a control artist, but a dominant one and his 21.5% strikeout rate bears that out. All told, he has nearly a 17% difference between his strikeout and walk rates. How good is that? Only 19 starters are doing that in the major leagues right now. Not too shabby for a kid who probably should be getting his feet wet at low-A ball right now considering his age.

Monday Roundup - Roster Beginning to Take Shape

The Atlanta Braves had a much better week of games than the previous horrorfest which included just one win. Let's recap the week and who helped and hurt himself the most.

From the Fort Bragg luncheon. By Sgt. anthony hewitt
[Public domain], via Wikimedia Commons

PIRATES 6, Braves 3

Matt Wisler was a longshot heading into this spring after the offseason acquisition of three new starters. So far this spring, Wisler's play has helped to reinforce that the Braves were right to think they needed starting depth. With the Braves up 3-2, Wisler gave up three runs, including surrendering a homer to Jose Osuna. Offensively, the Braves were led by two-hit games from Jace Peterson, Anthony Recker, and Micah Johnson. Recker and Travis Demeritte each added their first doubles of the spring. Jaime Garcia started and though he gave up a two-run homer to Austin Meadows, Garcia settled in to strike out four over three innings. Jim Johnson and Arodys Vizcaino each worked sketchy innings with Johnson allowing an unearned run while Vizcaino surrendered three hits (but no runs).

Who helped himself the most? M. Johnson
Who hurt himself the most? Wisler

BRAVES 3, Phillies 2

Braves snap a losing streak after Micah Johnson tripled in Rio Ruiz in the seventh inning to put the Braves on top. Johnson had also scored the Braves' first run after coming around on a Nick Markakis double that also plated Brandon Phillips. On the mound, Bartolo Colon was solid and efficient, working three innings and allowing just one single. Sean Newcomb, in his final outing before being reassigned to the minor league camp, worked two scoreless with four strikeouts. Jose Ramirez walked one in his quiet frame while Ian Krol set the Phillies down in the ninth for the save.

Who helped himself the most? M. Johnson
Who hurt himself the most? Ruiz (0-for-2, BB, K)

Yankees 8, BRAVES 7

Big innings have been a theme during many Braves losses and this one was no different. With a 2-1 lead handed to Blaine Boyer after Aaron Blair and John Danks shared the first five frames, Boyer continued his rough spring by retiring just one of the eight batters he faced - and that came via a sacrifice bunt. Eric O'Flaherty entered and got out of the frame, but six runs were in. After O'Flaherty, who gave up a run in his 1.2 innings of work, Chaz Roe entered and had his first decent outing of the spring, though he still loaded the bases before getting a strikeout. Danks also had a decent outing, surrendering two hits and walking one over 2.1 innings. The Braves would fight back to score three in the sixth and two in the ninth on a pair of Matt Tuiasosopo homers, but could not make the final push. With no right-handed bat off the bench, Tuiasosopo has a shot to impress the Braves this spring and potentially break camp with the team. Also of note was that Ozzie Albies played in his first game since fracturing his elbow last September during the Southern League playoffs. He singled and scored on a double in the first inning.

Who helped himself the most? Tuiasosopo
Who hurt himself the most? Boyer

BRAVES 5, Mets 2

Both teams wasted several opportunities, but despite leaving ten runners on base, the Braves still prevail with the aid of three homers. Matt Tuiasosopo blasted his third homer in two days while Brandon Phillips and Adonis Garcia each homered for the first time this spring. Johan Camargo continued his hot hitting with a pair of hits, including a triple, while Rio Ruiz also added two hits and a double. On the mound, Lucas Sims got the start and held his own against a Mets lineup without many regulars in it. Of particular importance was that he didn't walk a batter in his three innings. Josh Collmenter continued his strong pitching with two scoreless while Jim Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino, Max Fried, and Luke Jackson each finished with a scoreless inning. Jackson has quietly had a strong spring, though he's rarely faced major league hitters. Still, with a lot of games still left to be played, Jackson has performed well and put himself in position to potentially claim a bullpen spot.

Who helped himself the most? Jackson
Who hurt himself the most? Nobody (yay!)

Braves 2, CARDINALS 2

Akeel Morris couldn't locate his pitches in a troublesome ninth and the Braves had to settle for their first tie of the spring after neither team scored in the tenth. Atlanta never trailed in this one, pulling ahead 1-0 in the fourth on Tyler Flowers' RBI single that plated Emilio Bonifacio. St. Louis tied it on a mammoth Matt Adams blast off Mike Foltynewicz, but The Great Balbino made it 2-1 with his first homer of the spring in the sixth. Fuenmayor had half of Atlanta's four hits in this one. Foltynewicz was very solid outside of the pitch to Adams which caught way too much of the strikezone. He K'd 3 in four efficient innings. Jose Ramirez worked a quiet two-K inning to keep in the hunt for a bullpen spot while Ian Krol, Mauricio Cabrera, and Paco Rodriguez all worked scoreless frames. Morris, who struggles with consistency in his delivery and release point, was banged up by former Braves farmhand Todd Cunningham for a game-tying single in the ninth. Throwing away the ball on a failed pickoff attempt didn't help matters any. Caleb Dirks, the "just-in-case" guy for the Braves, pitched a solid tenth to finish the tie.

Who helped himself the most? Ramirez & Bonifacio (1-for-3, 2 SB)
Who hurt himself the most? Rio Ruiz (0-for-3, K)

Braves 10, YANKEES 2

Kurt Suzuki had a big Sunday with a 3-for-3 day including a trio of doubles as the Braves teed off on C.C. Sabathia for a half-dozen runs in the first frame, sending the former Cy Young award winner to the showers before the first inning was complete. On the mound, Jaime Garcia rolled against a Yankees lineup that including a number of members of their projected opening day roster. He faced 10 batters, allowed two to reach, got a twin killing to wipe out one of them, and struck out one. Matt Wisler entered and went three innings while allowing two solo homers. He did strike out three. Eric O'Flaherty, Blaine Boyer, and Joel De La Cruz tossed scoreless innings in relief to finish the outing. The star of the game, though, was Ronald Acuna. He picked up two hits, including a two-out triple that scored a pair of runs. He also walked and played the entire game in center field. With Ender Inciarte still in the World Baseball Classic, there are plenty of at-bats in center field and even though Acuna won't make the opening day roster, he could continue to receive a long look. Or maybe I just hope he does because he's so fun to watch.

Who helped himself the most? Boyer
Who hurt himself the most? Wisler

Week 3 Record: 3-2-1
Grapefruit League Record: 5-10-1, 12th place, 7 GB

Seven-Day Forecast with TV coverage if available: vs. Pirates, @ Phillies (TCN) , @ Tigers, vs. Tigers, @ Astros (ROOT), vs. Tigers, vs. Cardinals (FSSE)

Projected 25-Man Roster (3/13 edition)
Rotation - Julio Teheran, Bartolo Colon, Jaime Garcia, R.A. Dickey, Mike Foltynewicz
Bullpen - Jim Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino, Ian Krol, Mauricio Cabrera, Josh Collmenter, Jose Ramirez, Paco Rodriguez, Eric O'Flaherty *
Catchers - Tyler Flowers, Kurt Suzuki
Infielders - Freddie Freeman, Brandon Phillips, Dansby Swanson, Adonis Garcia, Jace Peterson, Chase d'Arnaud
Outfielders - Matt Kemp, Ender Inciarte, Nick Markakis, Micah Johnson

* - Based on a projected eight-man bullpen. If the team decides to go with seven, I project they'll keep Emilio Bonifacio.

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: #10-#6

Just ten prospects to go in this year's Top 50. This week, I will cover the bottom half of the Top Ten. It's difficult to not repeat yourself when talking about these ridiculously talented young pitchers the Braves have. Four of them make today's list and none of them can go legally buy alcohol yet. All have off-the-charts stuff with a breaking pitch that can buckle the knees of opposing hitters. Once again, it's a good time to a Braves fan.

As always, there are links to previous Top 50 capsules and a summary of the Top 50 players that have already been released, including today's five.

10. Ian Anderson, RHP, 19 years-old, Grade: B

Did you know 2016's third overall selection's middle name is Theodore? I really wish he'd go by that instead of Ian. Theodore is a name Braves fans can chant as he strikes out Mookie Betts to end the 2019 World Series. I guess we can chant Ian, too, it just lacks a certain pizzazz. Oh, well, at least Atlanta will finally have another title, right?

The young righty was selected #3rd overall last year as much for his signability as his projectability, Anderson was a late signee only because he had to wait for his high school's graduation. Such a late start left him with just ten overall starts, split between the GCL squad and Danville. He was dominant during the first stop, striking out a batter for each 18 innings he threw and only allowing two unearned runs. He wasn't as good in Danville, but an 18-year-old holding his own there is plenty good in my book. In truth, he had one real stinker of a game on August 22, but was wonderful over his final two starts. A stinker can make your numbers look worse when you toss just 21.2 innings.

Anderson works off a mid-90's fastball that has a good deal of late life on it. His change-of-pace has plus potential at the major league level. A mid-80's pitch that he doesn't telegraph, it looks like a fastball right up until it dies at the plate and sinks under the swing of hitters. He also shows a curveball that he throws in high-70's to low-80's depending on how much looping break he wants on it.

What has always been impressive about Anderson, beyond his repertoire of pitches, is his poise and competitive nature on the mound. He might draw some comparisons to another slender right-hander who was a bulldog on the mound - Tim Hudson - though Anderson has better strikeout potential.

Anderson won't turn 19 until May 2. By that time, he'll likely be a few weeks into his first full season of professional ball with Rome. The sky is super high for Anderson as he moves into 2017. In a system with amazing pitching prospects, Ian Theodore Anderson has a chance to possibly be the best of the group.



9. Ronald Acuna, OF, 19 years-old, Grade: B

Playing winter ball in Australia is often an oddity of a player's career. You do it once, have a bunch of memories about vegemite and fighting kangaroos, and that's about it. However, Ronald Acuna turned a month in Australia into a Evan Gattis-like explosive experience. In 20 games for Melbourne, the Venezuelan talent hit .375/.446/.556 with 2 homers and 13 steals. So amazing was his run with the Aces that the team dubbed him "The Answer to Everything." At least they didn't hype him up too much.

It was a great way to end what had been a disappointing 2016 for Acuna. To be clear, Acuna was not disappointing with the bat as he still raked. No, Acuna hit the shelf with a broken thumb or hand on May 9th and would miss more than three months before finally getting back into action in late-August. He finished the season on a tear and carries a seven-game hit streak in 2017. Overall, in just 42 games, Acuna slashed .312/.392/.429 with 4 homers and 14 steals. Give the kid roughly a .380 wOBA for his efforts.

Oh, and because it needs to be said, Acuna was one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League. Despite his youth, he has shown advanced plate discipline (11.3% walk rate so far) and the potential to be a five-tool guy with his speed, defense, bat, and improving power. I can't speak too much on his arm, but I will say this - to only be credited with six outfield assists to this point next to two errors suggests that there may be a line in the scouting report that reads something like "If you run on him, be ready to grab your glove and head to your position." Just guessing, of course.

We only have 97 games - plus 20 games "down under" - to grade Acuna, but the ceiling is still being measured for the guy. Could he the best outfielder the Braves have developed since Andruw Jones? No pressure, but it's possible. With any luck, Acuna will stay in the lineup this year and we can see what the kid can do.


8. Touki Toussaint, RHP, 20 years-old, Grade: B+

The Braves did the right thing in 2016 by holding Touki back a season after he struggled in his brief run with Rome the previous season. Like many Rome players, he struggled to open the season, but improved as the season continued. Over his last 17 games, which includes 16 starts, Toussaint struck out 104 in 89.1 innings with a 2.72 ERA and an 11% walk rate compared to the 15% rate before June. By the end of the season, the South Atlantic League had had just about enough of Touki. With any luck, the Florida State League will have a similar feeling by the time next summer is heating up.

By now, you probably know the story about Toussaint. Picked #16th overall in the 2014 draft, the Braves essentially bought Toussaint off the Diamondbacks in 2015 by taking on Bronson Arroyo's bloated salary. It was the kind of insane deal that got Dave Stewart fired from his general manager position. You could count on one hand the number of players with a higher ceiling that Toussaint entering the 2014 draft. Despite that knowledge, the Diamondbacks said, "yeah, but Arroyo's contract is a bit too much." It must have been hard to be a Diamondbacks fan during the Stewart years.

One word to sum up Toussaint is "raw." Another word could be "projection." As in, Toussaint's projection is all over the map. He could become a dominant starter - the kind of starter with filthy stuff that leads a staff into the playoffs. He could also become a tremendous closer who racks up K's and saves. Or...he could be a bust. There doesn't appear to be a lot of leeway between, though logically, even as a bust, he could still have a good deal of value similar to Juan Cruz.

Nothing Toussaint throws at the hitter stays straight for long. His mid-90's fastball gets a good deal of break away from lefties and cuts into righties. His change-up has a similar drop to Ian Anderson's as it comes to the plate when Toussaint has a feel for it. Of course, Toussaint's calling card is a curveball that is GIF-worthy.

If Toussaint cleans up his delivery as he did in the second half of 2016 and continues to pound the zone with strikes to set up his curve, he's going to be pretty tough to stop. If you get a chance to watch him this season, do it. He's got the stuff to throw a perfect game any given start.


7. Luiz Gohara, LHP, 20 years-old, Grade: B+

Do you realize how good of a system the Braves have to have in order for a player of Gohara's stock to not only fail to rank as the top left-handed prospect in the system, but to also not even rank as the #2 southpaw prospect? Welcome to the Braves, Gohara. If you want to get to the front of the line, it's going to be a bit tougher than it was out west.

A rarity in baseball, Gohara was born in Brazil at the trading deadline in 1996. If you're curious, the Braves were quiet that day. Gohara is also a rarity in that he was still 16 years-old when he made his debut. Just to add to this because it shows how good the Mariners thought he could be, at 16 years-old, he made his debut in the Appalachian League for Pulaski. Sixteen years old. He didn't head to the Dominican Summer League or play with some high school kids in the Gulf Coast League. No, he went straight to the Appy League. The first batter he faced in his second game was Kyle Wren, who was six years older than Gohara. Two things have to happen to receive an assignment like that. The Mariners had to really love Gohara and they were convinced he was mature enough to handle it.

Since then, Gohara has both been babied to limit innings and slow to adapt to the professional game. Just to re-iterate a point: he's faced 914 batters during his four-year career. Roughly 70 came against guys younger than he was. Finally, in 2016, Gohara started to catch up. Still 2-to-3 years younger than the competition, Gohara decreased his walk rate from the previous year by about 7% (12.7% to 8.2%) and saw a similar increase in his strikeout rate. Already difficult to elevate the ball against, Gohara surrendered just two homeruns in 69.2 innings. He ended the year with 11.2 innings in the Arizona Fall League against far-more-advanced competition and struck out 19 compared to just three walks.

Why did Jerry Dipoto trade his talented left-hand prospect? There have been reports about work ethic issues and problems controlling his weight. He's a big boy, that's clear. But he's got tremendous athletism, which helps him repeat his delivery and pound the zone with a mid-90's fastball that can close in on triple digits.

Gohara's slider has plus potential and if he develops his changeup, the ceiling the Mariners originally saw in him will be much easier to reach. The Braves could start him in Rome, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him in Florida after his positive 2016 campaign. If there is ever a double header with Toussaint/Gohara going for the Florida Fire Frogs, I might have to drop everything and leave Virginia for that experience.



6. Mike Soroka, RHP, 19 years-old, Grade: B+

I'm getting tired of writing about all of these amazing pitching prospects.

Just kidding. I love it. Mike Soroka was just 18 when the South Atlantic League season began. He was less than a year removed from graduating from Bishop Carroll High School all the way up in Calgary. Despite that, the ever-aggressive Braves started him in Rome and he became one of Rome's most consistent starters. Almost half of his 24 starts were classified as quality starts. Ten times, Soroka threw at least five innings while allowing a run or less (which would be zero, fyi). He finished sixth in the league in innings pitched. Of the top 21 leaders in innings pitched during the 2016 South Atlantic League season, Soroka is the only one who wasn't in his age-20 season or older.

Just to make this clear, he was really good. Did I mention he's still a teenager? Like every Braves pitching prospect, he has a good heater that moves. For Soroka, he can reach the mid-90's, but stays a tick or two below that for the most part. He's fearless on the mound and already willing and confident to pitch inside with his fastball to set up his plus curveball. When he's got feel for his curve, he'll buckle a lot of right-handed batters' knees. His changeup needs work, but has good potential.

Soroka probably won't mimic some of the strikeout numbers of the other top pitching prospects the Braves have, but despite being a high school selection, I believe his floor is very high. My belief in his high floor is why I place him sixth in my rankings. I have a great deal of confidence that Soroka will reach that floor with a chance to be even better. His ceiling isn't as high as Toussaint's or Gohara's, but I love Soroka's chances to lock into a middle-of-the-rotation cog at the very least. If he develops his changeup a bit more - or adds a different offspeed delivery - Soroka has a chance to be an ace.



2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects*
5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions)
#52-43
#42-31
#30-21
#20-16
#15-11

The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales
41. Steve Janas
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder
30. Akeel Morris
29. Matt Withrow
28. Michael Mader
27. Juan Yepez
26. Christian Pache
25. Brett Cumberland
24. Luke Jackson
23. Derian Cruz
22. Braxton Davidson
21. Alex Jackson
20. Rio Ruiz
19. A.J. Minter
18. Lucas Sims
17. Patrick Weigel
16. Kyle Muller
15. Dustin Peterson
14. Joey Wentz
13. Travis Demerrite
12. Austin Riley
11. Max Fried
10. Ian Anderson
9. Ronald Acuna
8. Touki Toussaint
7. Luiz Gohara
6. Mike Soroka

*Top 50 was increased to Top 52 after a trade.