Thursday Throwback - Reed Johnson

Sometimes, moves just don't pan out like they ought to. That was the case of the 2012 midseason trade that sent Reed Johnson, along with Paul Maholm, to the Braves. The trade was born out of a move that didn't happen and ultimately, failed to deliver despite looking like a good deal on paper for Frank Wren. Even when Wren made the right move, it just didn't seem to work.

But long before that trade, Reed Johnson was born a few weeks before Christmas in 1976. A product of Riverside, California, Johnson was a star in both baseball and soccer in high school. His success there landed him a coveted scholarship opportunity with Cal-State Fullerton, where he was an Academic All-American and posted strong offensive numbers as a catalyst for the Titans' offense. Undrafted out of high school, Johnson played well enough during his college years to move into the 17th round of the draft, which is where the Blue Jays took him. The '99 draft wasn't very good for the Jays. They took Alex Rios with their first round pick and he did develop into a decent player, but only three other players made it to the majors, including Johnson, the second-best player taken that year by Toronto.

After a summer of adjusting to pro ball, Johnson became an overnight prospect in 2000. He spent the year at two different A-ball stops and slashed .298/.420/.479, flashing plus-plus plate discipline and enough power and speed to be a very intriguing prospect. In 2001, this time at Double-A, Johnson became a name to watch. Spending the year with the Tennessee Smokies, Johnson slashed .314/.384/.451. The walk total was a bit of a letdown, but Johnson filled out his baseball card with 29 doubles, four triples, 13 homers, and 42 steals. The Southern League All-Star looked like he was a great late-round find for the Blue Jays and a player that could help them very soon.

After missing most of 2002 with injury, Johnson worked his way into the picture for the big league club in 2003. After opening the year in the minors, Johnson would soon establish himself as a major league performer with a strong summer. In 114 games in the majors, Johnson hit .294 with 10 homers and a .353 on-base percentage. The Jays had opened the year with super sub Frank Catalanotto in right field, but an injury to Shannon Stewart opened left for Catalanotto and allowed Johnson to slide into right field. Bobby Kielty would later join the team, cutting into Johnson's playing time, but Johnson proved his worth by being the Blue Jays' most used leadoff hitter.

For the next two years, Johnson was the regular left fielder for the Jays and was unspectacular in his job before a breakout 2006 campaign saw Johnson hit .319/.390/.479 with 12 homers. He led the AL in getting hit by a pitch that season as well. However, his success was short-lived. During an injury-marred 2007 season, he hit just .236 over 79 games. Johnson struggled the next spring as well and with the Jays feeling a roster crush, Toronto surprisingly released Johnson as spring training was nearing its end. The five-year pro would not remain available for long as he landed with the Cubs. A bench bat and platoon player, Johnson was a perfect fit in Chicago. He OPS'd .778 his first season with the Cubbies before slashing .255/.330/.412 during an injury-shortened 2009 season.

Johnson took his talents out west and played for the Dodgers in 2010, which wasn't much of a trip from the city he was born (Riverside). He struggled with in Los Angeles, though, and lasted just one year before returning to the Cubs in 2011. Like he had never left, his success returned.

That brings us to the 2012 season. The Cubs were in the first year of their rebuild under Theo Epstein. The former Red Sox mastermind had just hired Jed Hoyer to be their General Manager. That season, the Cubs were breaking in young Anthony Rizzo at first base (who, interestingly enough, Hoyer had dealt to the Cubs as the Padres' GM) and Chicago was trying to add young talent to the mix to build what eventually would become a winner. Meanwhile, the Atlanta Braves were trying to get back to the playoffs after their 2011 collapse during then-manager Fredi Gonzalez's first year at the helm. The Cubs and Braves seemed like a perfect match and a week before the trading deadline, a deal seemed imminent. However, neither Johnson, nor lefthander Paul Maholm, were part of it.

Atlanta was desperate to add a starter to their team that they could count on. With Jair Jurrjens looking like a lost cause, the Braves had turned to Ben Sheets. 25 year-old Tommy Hanson was struggling and Brandon Beachy, also 25, had made just 13 starts before going down with injury. They still had Tim Hudson while Mike Minor was improving, as a team with playoff aspirations, Atlanta did not have the kind of rotation that would be able to compete against the big boys of the National League. Atlanta thought they had found their man in Ryan Dempster. The former closer had been excellent to begin 2012 with a 2.11 ERA through his first 15 starts. While Dempster wasn't an ace, he was the kind of bulldog starter that gave his manager and general manager a bit more confidence than hoping Sheets could make it through the summer or that Hanson could turn the corner.

Wren and Hoyer found the right mix of players that would make the deal happen. Atlanta would send young Randall Delgado to the Cubs, which would finally separate the four pitchers of the future (Minor, Delgado, Julio Teheran, and Arodys Vizcaino). Another prospect would head to Chicago as well and the Braves would get Dempster. One little problem, though. With over 14 years of experience, including eight full seasons with the Cubs, Dempster qualified as a 10-5 player and could nix any deal. Dempster was open to a trade, but preferred to head out west where he could join his good buddy Ted Lilly and the Dodgers. While Dempster weighed his options - and definitely held out hope for a move to the Dodgers - the Braves grew agitated. All the perimeters were agreed upon and the deal had been leaked out to the public. Wren set a deadline for Dempster, but the right-hander refused to make a decision as he held out hope Los Angeles would step up. Atlanta ultimately took themselves out of the process rather than watch Dempster play the part of the girl with a date to the Prom all lined up, but is still hoping to go with the high school quarterback rather than the dude that actually wants to be with her. Not that I know anything about that...

The Braves still wanted a pitcher, but could not find a Dempster-like arm on the trade market. Instead, they called Hoyer up and asked about Maholm. A long time Pirate, Maholm had joined the Cubs the previous offseason and he was also having a good season. Not a great one like Dempster, but would give the Braves a serviceable left-hand arm for their rotation. Meanwhile, the Braves did find their front-of-the-rotation arm by moving Kris Medlen into the rotation.  Coming along for the ride with Maholm and some bags of cash was Johnson. The Braves were stacked in the outfield with rookie Jason Heyward joining Michael Bourn and Martin Prado, but the prospect of adding a right-handed bat like Johnson to pair with Eric Hinske coming off the bench was a great fit. The Braves still broke up their four previously untouchable arms by sending Arodys Vizcaino to the Cubs in the deal along with reliever Jaye Chapman. Vizcaino was on the mend after having Tommy John surgery that spring.

Johnson got into 43 games down the stretch for the Braves and hit .270. He would get fairly regular time with Prado moving all over the field and helped to give the Braves their first real backup option to Bourn during the 2012 season. Both Prado and Bourn would be gone the next winter and would be replaced by Justin and Melvin "B.J" Upton Jr. Johnson, a free agent, liked Atlanta enough to return for a second year. He missed all of August with Achilles tendinitis, but missed even more time because Johnson was not a regular in the mix for the Braves even with the failures of the elder Upton. Instead, Johnson took a back seat to Jordan Schafer, who had returned after being claimed on waivers, and rookie Evan Gattis, who occasionally played left field to get his bat into the lineup more often. Johnson received five fewer plate appearances than Gerald Laird during the 2013 season and Johnson struggled to connect the bat to the ball with any authority.

During his year-and-a-half with the Braves, Johnson hit .256/.308/.332 with one homer, a pinch-hit two-run shot off former Braves farmhand Todd Redmond - then a member of Johnson's first team, the Jays. Johnson would struggle during a 2014 season spent as a reserve in Miami and continued his tour through the NL East with a stop in Washington next. A torn tendon in his left calf limited him to just 17 games with the Nats. He returned to DC the following year, but failed to make the roster coming out of camp last spring. I do not know if he's given up the dream of playing baseball again or not, but at 40 years-old, it seems unlikely that he'll continue his career.

His time with the Braves was short and ultimately uneventful. In the end, like many of Wren's deals, it just never worked like it should have. Of course, the Braves ended up re-acquiring Arodys Vizcaino from this deal so it cost precious little for Atlanta - even if it wasn't the deal they wanted.

Previous Throwbacks...
Mike Mordecai (1994-97)
David Ross (2009-12)
Ryan Langerhans (2002-03, 2005-07)

...or view ALL of them.

Reviewing BA's Top 10: 2001

Welcome to another look back at Baseball America's Top Ten prospects for the Braves system. The system begins to show some weaknesses in 2001. Two years before, every prospect on the list made it to the majors. Three missed out in 2000 and three more, including two different players from the previous year, fail to get to the majors from the 2001 list. Half of this year's list wasn't featured during the previous year's list, though the number one made the 2000 Top 100, but was left out of the Braves Top Ten. For the first time since 1995, George Lombard won't be on this year's list.

For previous editions of this series, click here.

1. Wilson Betemit, ss - BA Top 100: #29 - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 2002 (1st), 2003 (2nd)

By the end of the 2000 season, the 18 year-old Betemit had finished one season above rookie ball, but the huge international signing was rising fast in the eyes of prospects. At 18, Betemit should have had two seasons of professional experience under his belt, but his year with Jamestown in short-season A ball was his fourth. Due to an age mix-up, the Braves had actually signed Betemit when he was just 14-and-a-half. In their defense, he was a high school graduate already. The Braves were fine $100K and prohibited from scouting/signing players out of the Dominican Republic for six months during 2000. Even with that controversy, the signing looked like a masterstroke as Betemit progressed through the minors. Nothing seemed to halt him...until Richmond. A sub .700 OPS in 2002 and a .729 OPS in 2003 took away a considerable amount of the hype, though he would rebuild a bit in 2004 and was still just 22 years old. He finally landed in Atlanta for good in 2005 after small cups of coffee in 2001 and 2004. Slashing his way to a .305/.359/.435 year while backing up at three positions, the possibility of eventually growing into the player we thought he could be was back on. More production in 2006 followed, but for still unknown reasons, the Braves shipped him to the Dodgers for Willy Aybar and Danys Baez. The Braves would finish third that season.

However, Betemit never seemed to be productive for long and played everywhere before injuries forced him into a minor league season with Durham last year where he struck out 144 times and posted a .694 OPS. Despite a career that is rapidly approaching 20 years, Betemit is still only 33 and will likely get another shot somewhere. His defensive skills have long ago deteriorated to the point where he plays only the corner infield positions, but there has to be a spot for a guy who has a career OPS of .819 against right-handed pitching, including a .859 OPS in his last remotely healthy season of 2012.

2. Matt McClendon, rhp - BA Top 100: #51

Despite a very brief career, McClendon became a bit of a top prospect in 2000. Unfortunately for him, it was the only season of his career he was able to stay healthy. A fifth rounder out of the University of Florida in 1999, McClendon had been the 33rd overall pick just three years before by the Reds so he sacrificed some cash. He was the only four-year college draft choice by the Braves in the first 15 rounds that season, a draft that produced only one notable player and that player, Garrett Jones, never played for Atlanta. McClendon, like three other pitchers on this list, was a member of the 2000 Myrtle Beach Pelicans, a team that went 88-52 behind a team ERA of 2.51. He made just six starts for them before moving up to Greenville, where he threw his only career shutout while posting a 1.36 WHIP in 131 innings. From there...bunches of injuries. He tossed 73 innings in 2001, 20.2 ING in 2002, just 4.1 ING in 2003, and in his final season, 2004, he pitched in eleven games and 19.1 ING for Myrtle Beach before the Braves cut him. He has found second life, though, as a member of the Scott Boras Corporation working for his former agent.

3. Marcus Giles, 2b - BA Top 100: #54 - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1999 (10th), 2000 (3rd)

Giles was coming off a 17 homerun season with the Greenville Braves when he just missed out on being tabbed a Top 50 prospect by Baseball America. Nevertheless, he would shake that off to see time with the Braves during a pair of promotions. Oddly, the first one ended a day after hitting a game-deciding Grand Slam against Mike Hampton, but on July 20th, the Braves recalled Giles and he became the starting second baseman and leadoff hitter for the rest of the season. After a down year in 2002, he became one of my favorite players during a 2003 campaign that may have been aided with some helpful supplements. During his All-Star campaign, he slashed .316/.390/.526 with 49 doubles, 21 homers, and 14 steals. He was in a perfect situation, hitting between Rafael Furcal and Gary Sheffield, which led to a wealth of fastballs that he could clobber. His 2004 season, shorten by an unfortunate meeting with Andruw Jones, wasn't nearly as successful and thought he did resurface in 2005, his power declined and with it, his batting average. His career was about done just five seasons after he broke through.

4. Matt Belisle, rhp - BA Top 100: #28 - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 2002 (6th)

It's easy to forget, but Belisle was once a big pitching prospect. The 20 year-old split the 2000 season between Macon and Myrtle Beach and struck out 168 batters to just 29 walks, an astounding number. However, a lost 2001 season to injury and a disappointing 2002 led to Belisle losing his prospect hype. He was traded during 2003 to the Reds for Kent Mercker, closing the door on the 1998 second-rounder with the Braves. After struggling to establish himself as both a starter and reliever, he landed in Colorado for five years and pitched well overall out of the Rockies' bullpen. More recently, he joined the Cardinals for the 2015 season on a one-year pact.

5. Jason Marquis, rhp - BA Top 100: #92 - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 1997 (6th), 1998 (8th), 1999 (5th), 2000 (6th)

Ahead of his most continued exposure in Atlanta, Marquis has made 17 starts in the minors, though his numbers at Richmond weren't so hot (but low sample size). He also saw 15 games in the majors as a reliever. His time with the Braves in 2001 was notably his best in Atlanta. He appeared in 38 games, including moving to the starting rotation for most of the final three months. He even threw two innings in the NLCS against the D'Backs, though his defense hurt him badly in Game Four, leading to four unearned runs in an eventual 11-4 whipping when the supposedly defensively sound Rey Sanchez threw the ball away. After a rough 2002-03, Marquis time with the Braves was finished.

6. Billy Sylvester, rhp

Spartanberg Methodist College has produced a few solid hitters over the years, including Orlando Hudson, Mookie Wilson, and a pair of ex-Braves in Dwight Smith and Reggie Sanders. Sylvester, a teammate of Hudson, looked like he might be the next one after he transitioned to closer for the 2000 Pelicans and saved 16 games while allowing just four earned runs in 45.2 ING to go with 48 K's. However, he was a little lucky that season. The walks begin to double and while he would continue to save games, he wasn't able to get enough outs to secure much of a look. After the Braves let him leave following the 2003 season, he would go on to play in the Rangers, A's, and Nationals systems before finishing his career by pitching 58 innings for the Somerset Patriots in the Atlantic League. He currently is the head of the Darlington High School baseball program in Darlington, SC along with being an assistant football coach.

7. Adam Wainwright, rhp - BA Top 100: #97 - Other Years in Braves Top 100: 2002 (2nd), 2003 (1st), 2004 (3rd)

It was meant to be. The self-proclaimed "biggest Braves fan in the history of the world" was perfectly matched up with the team that took him 29th overall in 2000. He followed that up by easily mowing down rookie league hitters who had no business stepping into the box against him. He was remarkably consistent and on the verge of greatness by the end of 2003 when...he was traded. After that, I assume he died because I don't remember hearing a thing about him or how that trade worked out.

8. Wes Helms, 3b - Other Years in the Braves Top Ten: 1997 (5th), 1998 (5th), 1999 (9th)

Helms is not interesting enough to continue to write about for this series, but he did follow up an injury-riddled 1999 with a solid season in 2000 so it's good to see him rebound. By the way, his last major league hit was an infield single. Only 48 of his 694 major league hits were infield singles so that's something, especially for a guy who was only successful in three of 15 stolen base attempts.

9. Christian Parra, rhp

Another of those Myrtle Beach pitchers, Parra spent the whole season with the Pelicans after being signed as an undrafted free agent the previous year. His 2000 season included a 17-4 record and 2.28 ERA, good enough to win the Carolina League Pitcher of the Year. He even pitched in a combined no-hitter, finishing a double header shortened game that Tim Spooneybarger, on a rehab assignment, had started with one hitless inning. But after sucking in 2001, he missed all of 2002 to injury and never played another professional game. He did try to get going again in Mexico, but wasn't able to get a look in the Mexican League.

10. Scott Sobkowiak, rhp - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 2000 (4th)

Baseball America must have been kind to Sobkowiak to keep him on this list after he made just four starts in 2000 due to injury. The Northern Iowa product would reach the majors for one inning to close the year in 2001, but he would never get back to the majors. He has spent the last almost five years as a pitching coach for the Lewis University Flyers, though he doesn't show up right now so he may have moved on.

The Braves had six players in the Top 100, but none made the Top 25. They did eventually get a guy who was in the Top 25 that season when Ben Sheets, ranked fifth, finished his career with nine starts as a member of the 2012 Braves.

Some Recent Braves History in Doubleheaders

Starting at 2:05 EST, the Braves will begin a day-night doubleheader in Philadelphia. It is the first doubleheader of the season for Atlanta and will make up a previously postponed game because of weather. The development gave me reason to investigate how the Braves have performed in recent doubleheaders. I should add that today's games and most, if not all, of the doubleheaders the Braves have played in recent history cannot be classified as true doubleheaders. If you empty out the stadium, it's not a real double dip. You're merely playing two single games in the same day. But I digress.

Last season, the Braves played three doubleheaders. The first came in Denver during the Braves' only trip to Colorado. In the opener, the Braves and Rockies completed their scoring by the fourth inning and the Braves sneaked passed 4-3. The night-cap saw the Braves crush the Rockies. They built a 6-1 lead before adding a four-spot in the ninth to turn it into a complete rout on way to a 10-2 win. The Braves counted on their usual starters with Mike Minor and Julio Teheran because the postponement came only a day before. Typically, that is not the case and usually, like today, the starter for one of the games is either coming out of the pen or from the minors. The other two doubleheaders were a little more planned, but had much less success. On June 18th, they dropped two to the Mets, getting outscored 10-4, and on September 17th, they lost two in Washington with the first game including a walk-off against Craig Kimbrel.

The Braves played the Nats in Washington for another doubleheader in 2012. On July 21st, they split a pair against the first-place Nats with Ben Sheets throwing six shutout innings in the opener. That allows me to use my Sheets tag for the first time since 2012. The split with the Nats was the only doubleheader of the year.

2011 quickly saw the Braves play a pair at home against the Mets on April 16th. They allowed two runs in the opener and none in the second game, rolling to a sweep behind the arms of Derek Lowe and Jair Jurrjens. On May 4th, they again played a doubleheader with the Brewers and absolutely rolled with eight runs in both games to get above .500. They would sweep their third doubleheader of the season on September 8th, this time in New York against the Mets. Making up a postponed game on a shared off-day, the Braves had one of their few bright moments of that September collapse and Teheran picked up his first major league win in the night cap.

In Bobby Cox's final two seasons, the Braves would play no doubleheaders. In fact, you have to skip to 2008 for the final doubleheaders of Cox's reign. The Braves played a pair in slightly more than a week that May. In a nine day span, the Braves played ten games (and still had an off day worked in). On May 12th, they split a pair in Pittsburgh with Tim Hudson winning 8-1 in the night cap and on May 20th, they swept the Mets with Tom Glavine and Jorge Campillo getting the starts. Later that season, they dropped a pair in Chicago with Charlie Morton and Campillo starting the two games where the Cubs combined to score 18 runs. Not done, the Braves locked up with the Mets yet again and split a pair of games in Flushing.

The Braves would play a road twin billing with the Boston Red Sox on May 19th to jam a pair of games into a quick series. It was an uneven day where Anthony Lerew would get hammered in the opener and the Braves would roll 14-0 behind John Smoltz in the second game.  A few weeks later, they again split a doubleheader, this time with the Marlins on June 5th with Smoltz losing the night cap 5-1.

In 2006, the Braves matched up with the Diamondbacks at home and managed to lose both games on June 3rd as part of a four-game sweep. Smoltz lost the opener and John Thomson had a poor outing in the second game. The Braves fell to .500 that day and under .500 when the D'Backs completed the sweep the following day. They would never sniff .500 again that season. Atlanta would have a weird few weeks in early September where they played back-to-back doubleheaders in Philly and split all four games. Starters included Oscar Villarreal, Kyle Davies, Hudson (who gave up six runs), and Lance Cormier. It's actually amazing they split the four games. Not done with doubleheaders, Atlanta played another one in New York on September 6th and the Mets won both with the Braves only scoring one run. Still not done, they met the Phillies for yet another doubleheader, this time at home on September 13th and dropped both games.

So, since 2006, the Braves have played 19 doubleheaders, or an average of between two-and-three doubleheaders a season and in two of those years, they played none. They have swept five of the twin billings while being swept seven times. Seven other times, they split the doubleheader. This actually holds true, as a paper by Michael Goodman pointed out double headers are swept more times than they are not, especially in recent history. Our natural inclination would state otherwise, but the facts are the facts. Since the start of 2013, 24 of 36 double headers have been sweeps. It's also more likely that the home team gets the sweep so that doesn't benefit the Braves. However, it's the Phillies. They like to lose.

How Valuable is Ben Sheets?

With another solid outing the other night against the Phillies, Ben Sheets improved to 4-1 in his first five starts since June 15th.  He went a season-high 7.1 ING before being lifted and allowed one run on a solo homer while walking a batter and giving up seven hits.  Curiously, he struck out no one after entering the game with a superb 8.4 K/9 rate which might make us think that Sheets lacked his best stuff.  In addition, let's not kid ourselves - this version of the Phillies is hardly formidable.

Just the same, Sheets continued to build on his successful start and has brought a level of stability to the top of the rotation that simply did not exist after Brandon Beachy's injury.  Signing Sheets has appeared to be Frank Wren's best free agent signing to date since getting his current gig.

Naturally, Atlanta fans are beginning to be curious about how Sheets will fit in next year and beyond.  Or at all, for that matter.

Without getting the buggy before the horse, Sheets has five starts in two seasons and was last a major player for a rotation during a full season in 2008.  He's not exactly Mr. Durable.  So far, Sheets has relied heavily on his cutter to supplement his game, a stark change from his years in Milwaukee when he essentially was using his curveball to offset the hard stuff.  Now, he still has one of the game's best curveballs, but the cutter has kept batters off balanced and made his fastball all the more problematic.  The change began two years ago, when as an Athletic, he began to incorporate the cutter a career-best 5%.  Now, he uses it almost 14% of the time.  This is a considerable move for Sheets because before this year, he never had a third pitch.  He occasionally brought out the changeup, but 90-95% of the time, you either got a fastball or a curveball.  Both were great pitches and the Sheets' stuff and masterful location still made him successful.  His cutter isn't up to the level of his other two pitches, but it gives him something else and has helped to bring back the effectiveness of his curveball.

With every outing, Sheets is giving Atlanta what it desperately needed and is helping soothe the sadness of not getting an ace before the trading deadline.  In addition, he might be pricing himself out of the Braves' plans for next season.  This season, Sheets will receive the prorated amount of $2.5M, or a shade over a million.  He can and probably will reach all of his incentives if he remains healthy to add $1.5M to the total investment for Atlanta.  Even for three-and-a-half months, $2.7M or so is a paltry sum for Sheets.  He will not be that cheap in the offseason.

Obviously, I write this under the belief that Sheets remains healthy.  Chances are solid, I believe, that Sheets can command as much as $8M easily, especially over a short-term deal.  At 34 and with an injury-laden history, Sheets can probably only get two years and that's pushing it.  Some teams may look to get some assurances that they can get out of the second year of possible or simply make it a 1+1 year with an option for the second season. 

So, the question must be asked...will Ben Sheets be a Brave next year?  I want to believe that he will be provided some conditions are met.  Clearly, he has to remain healthy.  Second, I don't see the Braves engaging in a bidding war for his services.  Either their offer is good enough or he will be on his way.  That might require Sheets to take less.  And third, it cannot be anymore than two seasons.  So, if Sheets stays healthy, I'll plug in a 2-year deal with $16M plus another $4M in incentives.  $1M for 30 games started in both seasons, $1M for a Cy Young, $1M for 380 combined innings during the life of the deal.  My gut says Sheets will get more and I don't believe the Braves can match that. 

To help with finances, I would also lock up Tim Hudson for 2 years and $15M.  He has a $9M option for next season so the money saved won't be great, but Huddy might be willing to take some money deferred.  He obviously doesn't want to leave and having Huddy and Sheets at the top of the rotation until they are passed by some of the younger pitchers would provide stability and experience.  Both have injury concerns, but I believe Atlanta can take a shot.  If more payroll flexibility is required, trading Tommy Hanson is always an option.

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Not Braves related, but you may have noticed that this blog has received some sporadic updates lately.  Part of it was due to the internet issues I was having with the Verizon jetpack router.  The other part and the part that continues is that my wife and I are nearing closing on a house.  As we prepare for the move and get settled in the new house, updates might be tough.  I am excited about this blog and still have ideas.  This weekend, I hope to add a player to the Walk-Off Walk Favorite Atlanta Braves squad and also, another random prospect. 

Should the Braves go to a 6-man staff?

So, as I am prone to doing, I brought up DOB's twitter account and looked for any interesting news.  Typically, there isn't much, but a retweet caught my eye.  AJC's Jeff Shultz contends that "Medlen should give Braves reason to consider 6-man staff."  Oh, really?

After explaining that Kris Medlen can do everything short of solving the debt crisis, Shultz says...

There is one option the Braves should consider, at least in the short term: a six-man rotation.

It’s a little out there, and not something a team would do in the season’s final pennant-chasing weeks (when you want your best pitchers to get as many starts as possible). But it makes sense now, both because of the circumstances of those in the Braves’ rotation and because there is an upcoming stretch of 20 straight games without an off day (beginning Friday in New York).

I like how Shultz explains the idiocy of the option and then contends how it makes sense in the next sentence.  The reason why you "want your best pitchers to get as many starts as possible" is because that helps your team win games.  And for the record, every single game counts the same.  They may mean more on September 25th than they do on August 12th, but they count the same.  In addition, yeah, it's 20 games in 20 days, but that's just four trips through the rotation and half of those games will be against sub-.500 opposition, including seven against the Padres.

Listen, I get why Meds is loved and if the decision is to let him start, that's not a terrible decision.  I think Atlanta has to explore every option under the sun to better their bullpen and that's with Medlen.  The urgency to pull a nice August trade for a good relief option (or two?) becomes all that more important.  However, if the choice is to make sure Medlen stays in the rotation, adding a sixth starter simply isn't an answer.

Shultz knows that will be the contention made by folks who have ever paid attention to baseball.

Now, there are those ruled by “numbers” in baseball who might think this idea is ridiculous.
“Six-man rotation? You sir are a moron. According to Chapter 17, subsection 12, paragraph 2 of the Sabermetrics Guide To Pitching Rotations …”

But consider:
• No. 1 starter Tim Hudson has bone spurs in his ankle. He already has received two cortisone injections. The rest would help.
• Perceived No. 2 starter Ben Sheets has started four games after not pitching in two years. Wear and fatigue could be issues.
• No. 3 Paul Maholm would be taken out of his every-fifth-day rhythm. If you consider that potentially catastrophic, raise your hand. (Anybody?)
• No. 4 Mike Minor has long surpassed his career single-season high with 116 2/3 innings (he threw 82.2 last year). Another off day should be welcomed.
• No. 5a Medlen isn’t going to complain.
• No. 5b Hanson is in no position to complain.

All valid points, but not for the argument you are making.  Because of the flimsy nature of the staff, the Braves need their bullpen at full strength.  I assume the argument here is that one of the bullpen spots would go to a starter and that would stretch a bullpen to six relievers.  Activating Hanson and installing him into the rotation would probably take Cory Gearrin or Luis Avilan's spot and if Peter Moylan makes it back all the way, he likely gets the other spot.  Your bullpen, at that point, has one long guy in Lispy Martinez to cover any time where Hudson has an episode, Sheets shows the wear and fatigue, Minor forgets to trust his stuff, and really...Hanson needs a full pen every night he pitches.  The wear and tear on the bullpen would be immense.  And what happens after August 30th off-date?  Do the Braves switch back to a five-man rotation?  Oh, wait, I'm sure we will cross that bridge, right?

And I didn't even need to access my Sabermetrics Guide to Pitching Rotations or, as we call it, common fucking sense.  By the way, Minor pitched 183.1 innings last year when you combine his Gwinnett work.  He topped 160 innings the previous season.  Why cherry-pick only his MLB numbers from last year?

Manager Fredi Gonzalez said he hadn’t thought of a six-man rotation until it was brought it up.

Great.  Now you gave this bad idea to a guy who thinks because it's quirky, it must be a good idea. Thanks a heap.

Then he said, “Yeah, I could see that. Those guys have pitched well enough and they could use a breather. Minor has some issues. Hanson has issues. There’s Huddy’s [ankle]. Sheets — who knows? We could do it. The only downside is we have to go at least one short in the bullpen or with a position player.”

Those are pretty significant downsides, especially in the National League.  Maybe in a DH-heavy portion of the schedule in the AL, giving this idea shot if you have a very flexible bench wouldn't be the worst idea.  Hell, I would rather do the Rockies' inane idea of a four-man rotation on 75 pitch limits than a six man staff.

By the way...in case you missed it, that wasn't a suggestion.

Schultz finishes the article by talking up Meds.  Really, I'm not against demoting Hanson either to Gwinnett or to the bullpen to work through his problems and leaving Meds in the staff.  I think Atlanta is better off with Meds in the bullpen simply because, if Hanson is your fifth starter (provided Minor's success continues), he's not a terrible fifth starter and Meds' value is higher to the bullpen, especially in close games.  Take today for instance.  Albeit, maybe Hanson doesn't give the bullpen the ball in the sixth with no outs, two runners on...but for argument's sake, if Hanson did that and looked cooked, you don't feel as skittish going to Medlen like you do when Fredi calls on Gearrin (for the FIFTH time in SIX days, mind you).  You have a level of comfort that Medlen, as Schultz contends, can "rescue a teammate in full mound meltdown mode."

However, the choice is either Medlen or Hanson, not BOTH.  Let's not screw around just cause it's different.

The Best (and Worst) of July

Atlanta finished July by tying their season best of seven consecutive wins.  That streak allowed them to close the book on July with a season-best 18-8 record.  Sadly, the Nats were only one game worse than that record so Atlanta didn't gain much on the Nationals for the month, though they were able to open a lead in the second Wild Card spot.  Not to spoil anyone's fun, but the Cardinals have been one of the most unluckiest teams up to this point so...don't be surprised to see them make another run.

Regardless, it's time to hand out some Walk-Off Walk awards for July.  Course, I'm three days late, but internet issues led to that.

Top Rookie of the Month - N/A - With the injury to Andrelton Simmons and the demotion of Randall Delgado, pickens were slim here.  

Worst Pitcher of the Month - Jair Jurrjens - It was difficult for anyone to even compete in this category because, by large, success was experienced by the majority of the staff last month.  However, one guy truly stuck out like a sore thumb.  Jurrjens has, outside of a couple of outings, been horrible this season and July was more of the same for him.  A K/9 rate of 3.38, a FIP over 5.00, and a lost rotation spot.  That is how you see your career with the Braves head south in a hurry. 

Dishonorable Mentions - Tommy Hanson, Anthony Varvaro

Worst Position Player of the Month - Dan Uggla - What can you say about Uggla's struggles except that every time he has a hit, I am reminded of a line out of Little Big League.  "Kid, don't you think there's a problem when you get that excited over a seeing-eye single?"  Right now, it's like that with Uggla.  He's still playing pretty solid defense, especially for him, and is doing everything you ask from a baseball player except hit the ball.  Last month, his slash line was pretty brutal.  .115/.281/.179.  All you can say is "cool, he's walking."  Now, recently, Uggla has started to turn things around a bit.  Hope it continues.


Dishonorable Mentions - Paul Janish, Eric Hinske

Best Pitcher of the Month - Ben Sheets - I hate giving this title to relievers and while Craig Kimbrel deserved back-to-back months as Best Pitcher, I am giving this to Sheets.  Over three starts and 18 innings, Sheets gave up just one run.  He was lucky over the month with over 94% LOB rate, but he was also extremely successful with a 3 K/BB rate.  Sheets was a big second-half pick-up for Atlanta and the Braves need him to continue for their season to be as successful as they would like.  So far, so good.

Honorable Mentions - Craig Kimbrel, Mike Minor

Best Position Player of the Month - Brian McCann - A tough choice because Chipper Jones was superb over July as well.  McCann was my choice last month for worst position player, but he turned it around and led the Braves in just about every offensive power-related category.  9 HR, four more than Jason Heyward.  21 RBI, 2 more than Freddie Freeman.  .296/.354/.704 with a .408 ISO and .434wOBA.  There are few catchers that can do that over a month and McCann has done it several times over his career.  Before July, I spoke several times of how important McCann and Freeman were to the Braves' hopes of getting to October, let alone catching the Nats.  Both had tremendous July's to go with Chipper's effort.  Last month's choice for this category was Heyward and he was solid in July, but not nearly to the level of the other three.

Honorable Mentions - Chipper Jones, Freddie Freeman

The Starting Rotation: Most Disappointing in 20 Years

This blog post seems oddly timed after Mike Minor gave me the old "screw you" for my comments the other day by throwing six fairly solid innings against the San Francisco Giants before the bullpen was destroyed by Brandon Crawford and Gregor Blanco (12 homers in over 1600 plate appearances between the two).  Nevertheless, one game does not change the fact that the argument can be made that no starting rotation has been more frustrating in the past 20 years than the one that has been out there for the Braves this season.

Not all of it is truly the rotation's fault on performance alone.  You can't prepare or predict for the injury to Brandon Beachy and Tim Hudson did miss roughly a month.  And having Tyler Pastornicky start at shortstop and post a -12.3 UZR in 327.2 innings at one of the top three most important defensive positions on the field can't help your pitching staff.  Further, let's be honest...you can't escape bad luck and Atlanta has had its fair share for John Schuerholtz selling his soul for 14 division titles.

Regardless of those things working against them, this rotation had incredibly high expectations and has not come remotely close to performing at that level.  Even 80% of what the Braves could have expected would have been a noticeable improvement over the struggles this staff has had.  I don't care if Craig Kimbrel is awesome times awesome (awesome squared), he shouldn't lead your pitchers in WAR.  He's a closer!  He pitches three-to-five innings a week and often, less.

Tommy Hanson is 10-5, which sounds awesome for a guy whose win-loss record has often been "meh," but as I said about Greg Maddux, win-loss records are stupid.  Hanson is having the worst season of his major league career and it sadly has occurred in the season he was probably the most important pitcher to the Braves.  Beachy's performance was able to hide Hanson to a degree, but since Beachy has gone down, Hanson has continued to perform at a sub-standard level with a 4.47 FIP and 4.05 SIERA.  Both marks are considerably higher than his previous worsts.  He's suffering from Jurrgenitis, a condition that lowers velocity, takes away movement from the fastball, and allows for more flyballs to leave the yard.  Last year, Hanson's K rate rushed past one an inning and his performance was more in line with a budding ace.  This year...he's been the quiet reason why Atlanta's rotation has failed so fantastically.

Of course, the originator of Jurrgenitis, one Jair Jurrgens, is another big reason, but the Braves really shouldn't have been that surprised by his failure.  I realize Jurrgens has always been able to outperform his peripherals, but shouldn't Atlanta have been able to take that under advisement?  Maybe they did and that's why he's often entered trade rumors.  I don't know.  Frank Wren never returns my phone calls and apparently, I deserved some lawyer calling and throwing around terms like harassment and verbal abuse.  You can make the argument that Atlanta should send Jurrjens to the pen and bring back Randall Delgado, but the difference between the two isn't that stark, I suppose, and I guess Wren can hold out hope someone has some serious beer goggles and sends him a gift card to Lowe's for Jurrjens.  Otherwise, Jurrjens will almost certainly be non-tendered and become some other team's problem.

Or...have a super season, become an All-Star, mock the Braves, and land a big multi-year deal.  By the way, fuck you Melky Cabrera.

Delgado is part of the troublesome rookies with Minor.  Both have had their moments, both have had their terrible outings.  I still like Delgado over Minor, but other factors (options, most specifically) neutralized my venom.  Neither has taken a true step forward and Atlanta needed one of them, or Julio Teheran, to do so this season.  Teheran has lost some of his luster as his struggles in AAA have continued from month-to-month, though a good number of experts on the subject point to his age and the likelihood he's still figuring out how to best use all of his pitches as a likely cause of his disappointing 2012.

The impact that this rotation has had on the rest of the team is tremendous.  The bench has been a major let-down and the bullpen has been horrid save Kimbrel, Kris Medlen, and Eric O'Flaherty.  But the rotation is key and has magnified the weaknesses of the bullpen and of the bench has it has placed too much importance on those other facets.  Delgado has gone six innings five times and never back-to-back.  Hanson has gone six in eleven of his games so that's slightly more improving, though he's actually pitched worse than Delgado.  Jurrjens?  Twice in nine games.  Minor went six innings four consecutive times in his first five starts, but only four times in his last twelve, though he has done it in back-to-back games.  That's a lot of wear-and-tear on the bullpen.  That's a lot of at-bats for the bench to be a deciding factor in the pitcher's spot.

The talent level of this rotation doesn't match the Big Three years by a long shot, but I would say it's considerably better than rotations expecting key contributions from Horaco Ramirez, Kyle Davies, John Thomson, Chuck James, and Jo-Jo (seriously, fuck you too) Reyes.  And while this rotation will outproduce those rotations, it should be by a larger margin.  It shouldn't be even close.  Hanson employs a deliriously good slider.  Hudson has the ability to induce 20 groundball outs and not even be dominant while doing so.  Minor and Delgado are legitimate top prospects, whose numbers in the minors weren't smoke-and-mirrors but notable and true.  Jurrjens has always been waiting for the other shoe to fall, but he shouldn't have regressed this badly to the other side of the mean.

The expectations were reasonably high for this rotation.  It may have lacked the star power of the Phillies and Nationals, but its depth and overall level of ability from 1 to 7 was high and only matched by one or two teams.  Injuries will play its unfortunate role and who knows if Arodys Vizcaino would have been the x-factor.  But that does not excuse the undeniable disappointment this rotation has been.  Braves fans shouldn't have to be this excited about Ben Sheets.  They shouldn't droll at trade targets to be the answer.

But they are.  This rotation, to this point, has given them no reason not to.

Ben Sheets: First Impressions

I left the house at 1:30 this afternoon for some father/daughter time, though the off-and-on rain put a damper on that.  Still, after some fun, we got back around 5:00 in time to send the wife to work and get dinner ready for the munchkin before bed time.  Then...it was to the TV and lovely DVR recording of the Mets/Braves. 

Ben Sheets was superb and that goes beyond just the numbers, which were excellent at 6 innings, 2 hits (including a double), a walk, and five strikeouts.  He threw 88 pitches and 57 went for strikes and with the highly inconsistent C.B. Bucknor behind the plate, that is an insanely notable accomplishment.  Probably was (and should have been) on a pitch limit so six efficient innings and a win to his record (and my J.V. fantasy team). 

His curve was working for most of the game, but was especially good early.  Ruben Tejada K'd on one to open things, Daniel Murphy flew out to Michael Bourn on another, and another ended the first when Ike Davis essentially flipped the bat after it to fly out to Jason Heyward.  He did fall in love with it a bit much in his one "bad" inning in the third.  Against Murphy, he used a pair of curves to help get a strike two and had Murphy guessing curve again, but Sheets went with his fastball and Murphy purposely fouled it away without much of a stride.  Instead of doubling up on the fastball with Murphy sitting curve, Sheets threw another breaking ball and it was a hanger.  Murphy drilled it to left-center and only the slowness of Jose Thole kept a run from scoring.  Sheets navigated the potential disaster by retiring David Wright and didn't allow another runner to reach.

Sheets' fastball was sitting around 91 mph, though he did get it up to 93 mph from what I saw.  What was more key that velocity was that he kept it low and generally on the corners.  He hit Brian McCann's glove with regularity.  He didn't go up in the zone with it very much, though he did get a K against Wright to end the sixth that way. 

Early on, he struggled with his cutter as it had a little too much movement to it and righties easily laid off of it.  Later in the game, he was able to effectively utilize it and when Sheets has all three pitches working like that, there is not a lot a hitter can do.  It's difficult to tell the difference in velocity between his cutter and his changeup so maybe more of his cutters were actually changeups because I don't recall many of them.  That said, they tended to still have a good deal of bite to them, but were closer to the zone to allow hitters to offer at them.

Overall, you love when a pitcher exits a game and your sole complaint is that he should have gotten a bunt down.  Damn good performance.  Now, hopefully the sequel isn't a letdown. 

Mike Minor Over Randall Delgado? RLY?

Updated: 10:30 PM, 7/15 - Dr. Brave at Chopnation brought something to my attention that I forgot in my haste to complain about this move.  Demoting Mike Minor would likely exhaust his options and force the Braves (and any team they possibly trade him to) into a tough decision if Minor plays himself into a demotion at a later date.  When you look at it that way and with Randall Delgado not exactly setting the world on fire, I am tempted to completely withdraw my objection to the decision.

According to something that goes by the name Vivlamore, the Braves have decided to demote Randall Delgado for Ben Sheets.  I get the idea.  Delgado gets a start Monday at Gwinnett and gets brought back up on Saturday for the double header in D.C.  That's cool.

The move means left-hander Mike Minor will keep his spot in the rotation and will likely pitch Wednesday against the Giants. The Braves had to choose between Minor and Delgado to make room for Sheets as both youngsters have struggled this season.

“It was a tough decision between him and Minor,” Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez said. “The last couple starts with Minor we felt there was some progress being made.”

Wait...what?  First off...why would you need to throw out Minor on Wednesday?  Ya know, I'll get back to that.

What "progress" is being made by Mike Minor?  He looked decent against the Cubs on the fifth, but it is the Cubs after all and they lost their offense in the ivy (along with Andre Dawson, apparently).  Minor gave up three hits, walked three, and K'd six over six innings.  Three runs scored and one homer was surrendered.  The game snapped a streak of three straight with four or more runs given up.  After beginning the year with three solid starts, Minor has three quality starts in 13 games.  Four pitchers have a worse FIP.  He's tied with one of those guys in HR/9 and it's not like Minor really plays in a homerific park.

And sadly, Gonzalez thinks he's showing improvement.  It is true that he has not allowed homers at a head-spinning rate like he did when he gave up eleven in five starts (he's been touched up for seven in seven starts since), but just because not as many balls have left the reservation doesn't mean he's pitching at all well.  Has he been unlucky?  Sure.  Probably.  Maybe.  But progress?  Apparently, Gonzalez thinks "progress" means something else.

Not to say Delgado has been awesome by any means because he hasn't, but he's been noticeably better than Minor.  Of the current rotation, only Tim Hudson has outperformed Delgado's 4.21 FIP and 4.17 xFIP.  Delgado's walks have been an issue, but in an ACTUAL example of progress, Delgado has issued five walks over his last four starts (19.1 ING), an improvement if only because he issued six in the game preceding the previous four.  Still considering he's walked three or more in nine of his 16 starts, to have a run of four starts without running into considerable control issues is progress.

A part of me believes the difference isn't severe between the two, but regardless, shouldn't you want the better starter on the mound?  Another part of me believes Minor is the guy they are trying to sell to Milwaukee in any potential Zack Greinke deal.  Still another part of me thinks Gonzalez flipped a coin and built a BS story to justify the Gods' choice.

By the way...with an off day Monday, why start Minor on Wednesday?  Jair Jurrjens could go Tuesday and back to the rest of the staff on regular rest (Tim Hudson, Tommy Hanson, Sheets) to set up Minor/Delgado for the double header.

But I forgot to consult my Book of Random Decisions.

Howdy Ben Sheets!

If you haven't heard by now, Atlanta has agreed to a minor league contract with former Brewers workhorse, Ben Sheets.  The Braves were one of the few teams that watched a simulated five-inning stint Sheets threw at Georgia Tech last week and saw enough to believe that it was time to act.  Sheets' agent and Braves GM Frank Wren agreed to the deal Saturday night and after Sheets passed the physical today, the comeback attempt was on.  Sheets was hitting the low 90's in his simulated game, which is encouraging because that's where he has lived his whole career. 

Sheets broke into the majors just two seasons after he was selected with the 10th overall pick in the 1999 draft.  He rocketed up the ladder, recording 13 starts in AAA as a 21-22 year-old in his second professional season and started 25 games in the bigs in 2001 as the Brewers' future ace.  After three seasons of harnessing his ability, Sheets broke out in 2004, striking out 264 batters for the Brewers in a worrisome 237 innings.  When people ask why pitchers get babied, Sheets can often be cited as a cautionary tale.  Three seasons of 215 innings and Sheets as a workhorse was done. 

He would miss considerable time over the next three seasons, never starting more than 24 games at the MLB level or pitching over 160 innings.  He was able to turn the corner some in 2008, but seeking out a playoff run, the Brewers rode Sheets and C.C. Sabathia into the ground down the stretch.  While they made the playoffs, the damage was done.  Sheets threw a ridiculous amount of curveballs in 2008...33% of his pitches were curveballs, in fact.  Amazingly, that's the second most curveballs by percentage he had thrown in his career.  Sheets was diagnosed with a tear in his right elbow and missed the playoffs.

After missing 2009, Sheets caught on with the A's in 2010.  The results weren't so pretty.  The 4.71 FIP he suffered through was the second worst of his career (have to go back to his rookie year for the worst).  His K/9 rate tumbled while his walk rate went higher than ever before.  In late July, his season was over after a torn flexor in his right elbow that required Tommy John. 

But he's back...what can the Braves expect?  Not really sure.  Sheets will begin a minor league stint with Mississippi soon and is expected to make a couple of starts.  If he starts getting back to his Brewers days, the Braves have acquired a big arm for the playoff push.  If he looks like the guy who was fairly abysmal in 20 starts with the A's in 2009, did Atlanta waste too much time putting hope in a guy who is done rather than bring in an impact starter?

Provided they aren't putting too much into the hope that Sheets comes back at his 2004-2008 self, the Braves acquired a guy for pennies that can provide pretty much anything they may have gotten in trades for the likes of Joe Saunders or Jason Vargas.  They can continue to seek out an impact arm like Zack Greinke and see if things work for bringing him in with an extension.  If Sheets puts up a 1.20 WHIP, keeps the BB/9 rate under 3 and the K/BB rate over 2, the Braves are getting massive bang for their buck. 

Can't say anything bad about this pickup provided that it does nothing to keep Wren from continuing to try to work a deal for an impact arm.