In what would become Frank Wren's final draft with the Atlanta Braves, the team went pitcher-heavy early with college arms. They took the freakishly tall Max Povse in the third round and in the fifth round, landed productive Miami Hurricanes lefty Chris Diaz. Between those picks, with the 133rd overall selection, the Braves went with a righty from the small University of South Carolina Upstate, Chad Sobotka. A year later, the Braves would make a similar selection - though with much higher expectations - when they picked A.J. Minter. Both pitchers were coming off significant injuries, but each had the potential to be big bullpen players for future Braves' teams.
Born July 10, 1993, Sobotka was raised in Sarasota, Florida, where he attended Riverview High School. After not receiving much of a look coming out of high school, he landed with the Spartans under Matt Fincher. The righty quickly impressed with plus-velocity and a pretty good idea of where the ball was headed - especially for a freshman - and became the team's closer. In 25 games, the youngest pitcher on the team notched 12 saves with a 1.74 ERA and over a strikeout an inning. The following season wasn't as impressive as he ran into a few control issues, but he still saved seven more games. That may not seem like a lot, but after just two years on campus, Sobotka was one save away from tying the school record.
After his sophomore season, Sobotka went to the Cape Cod League and impressed scouts with his power. He returned to campus with hopes for another big year and possibly a saves record, but a stress fracture in his back put him on the mend. He would miss his entire junior season. That didn't stop the Braves from using the 133rd overall pick on him, though, and unlike many Wren-era picks, this was not a safe selection nor a pick the Braves failed to get good value on. The injury concerns alone were an issue for the Braves, but the value on drafting Sobotka was solid with Baseball America attached a 115th overall ranking for the righty while Keith Law ranked him the 66th best prospect coming into the draft. Sobotka remains the highest-selected player from South Carolina Upstate.
Sobotka would only rehab during his first professional season. When 2015 hit, the then-21 year-old opened the season in Rome. He was given extensive work as a starter with little success. The belief among fans wasn't that the Braves felt Sobotka was a starting prospect, but were trying to give him innings in an easy-to-regulate manner. His first taste of professional ball was interrupted twice by DL stints - one two games into the season and the other coming in mid-June. That one put him on the shelf for two months. Overall, including three rehab games with GCL and Danville, Sobotka's first season was a disappointment. He appeared 15 times with a 6.32 ERA with as many walks as strikeouts (22).
But that wasn't disheartening. After all, Sobotka was able to stay healthy enough to log 37 innings. That was 37 more than the previous year. When 2016 came, Sobotka was given a return assignment with Rome. The season got off to a rough start as he left his first outing after just three batters with an injury that would keep him out a month. Returning in May, his put up seven consecutive scoreless appearances and ten innings in total before getting off to a poor start in June. He was able to turn the corner for a pair of outings in the final few days of the month where he K'd 5 batters in three innings. He earned his promotion to Carolina where he would pitch wonderfully. He had one iffy game in which he gave up three runs, but outside of that, he was nearly untouchable. His control, which wavered from time-to-time in Rome, was spot-on in Carolina (three walks in 17.2 ING). He even clinched his first three professional saves and after two months in Carolina, Sobotka was promoted to Mississippi. He pitched twice there with a pair of perfect frames and stayed with the team for the playoff run, where he tossed 5.1 scoreless innings.
A lot was hoped for in regards to Sobotka as 2017 opened. He was one of many relief arms looking to open some eyes and push their way into the major league picture, but this season just hasn't gone his way. He's been scored on in just over half of his 18 appearances with Mississippi and over his final eleven games in Double-A, things got really bad. He allowed 17 runs in 16.2 innings with more walks (12) than strikeouts). His last three were especially ugly. He retired just nine batters while allowing seven runs to score. His struggles came to a head on Friday when he was demoted to Florida. His first outing there was a good one. He gave up a single, but struck out two over one inning.
Sobotka throws out of a high 3/4's delivery and definitely has the velocity to be a power reliever with a mid-90's heat. He throws both a two-seam and four-seam fastball with the latter allowing him to uncover some added velocity and the ability to pitch up-in-the-zone. However, his bread-and-butter is a two-seam fastball that while it doesn't have a lot of movement on it, because of his height (6'6") and high release, the ball has the impression of some good sink on it. The slider, which is featured on the GIF to the side from a game a week ago, seems to drop off the cliff as it reaches the batter when he's on. When he's not, it gets very flat. Sobotka also has a changeup from his starter days, but most of the time, he's humming fastballs into the zone to set up the slider.
The big righty lacks the press that his current teammate A.J. Minter has. Both had similar beginnings with the Braves, but Minter has higher grades. Just the same, Sobotka has a good chance to rise in this system. He's got the arsenal to develop into a high-leverage reliever. All it will come down to is consistency in his delivery, trusting his stuff, and maybe most importantly - staying on the mound. If he can do that, he'll be back on track and moving up the system.
In this new series, Ryan Cothran and I have a back-and-forth as we discuss a subject. It's informal and we hope you guys get something out of it. This week, we’ll look at rising and falling prospects using the Walk-Off Walk Top 50 preseason list as a guide (link takes you to posts about the Top 50). At times, we’ll agree. Other times, we’ll disagree. Join the conversation and tell us where we are misguided in the comment section.
It’s hard not to be smug when talking about the farm system the Atlanta Braves have put together. From trades to acquire even more talent to the smart utilization of the draft to maximize both quality and quantity to a recommitment to the international market - and even holdovers from the Frank Wren era like Lucas Sims and Ozzie Albies - the Braves organization is full of not just depth at a number of positions, but talent that has impact potential. Today, I wanted to go over some of the guys that have increased their stock over the first two months of the season. At the same, we can’t ignore the players who are falling down the prospect rankings. To be fair, some of that is due to the first category - the guys pushing their stock up. But there are a few - yes a few -, that have struggled to this point.
I’m going to use my Top 50 as an outline here. Hey, since you’re a full-fledged member of Walk-Off Walk, I guess you are going to have help me with the midseason rankings. Just know that while I value your opinion, if it doesn’t agree with mine, it’s wrong.
Just kidding. Maybe.
Let’s get on with it. #46 Bryse Wilson is kind of the forgotten arm from last year’s class and not only because I keep forgetting to spell his name with an “s” rather than a “c”. A fourth-round pick, Wilson dominated in the Gulf Coast League, but remained firmly in the shadow of Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, and Kyle Muller. Yet, it was Wilson, not Muller, that jumped from the GCL to the South Atlantic League to open 2017. He hasn’t been as good as Wentz and Anderson according to FIP, but he’s still been damn good. A lot of pre-draft analysis strongly hinted Wilson could be a bullpen guy, but the Braves wouldn't have picked a high school arm that high (#109) to be a bullpen arm. They thought they saw something in him that maybe others didn't. So far, they might be right.
He’s one of the guys I expect to climb up the midseason list considerably. While I have only done a little prep work for it so far, do you expect a Top 30 placement for Wilson?
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Tommy “Edgar Allan” Poe,
When looking at a list that has some of the best pitching prospects in the game, it’s easy to see Bryse Wilson and simply pass him over. However, he’s making a believer out of me with a fastball that sits 93-95 MPH, can climb as high as 97, and has staying power throughout his starts. Did I mention he’s still two years away from being able to buy a beer legally in the states? Like many young ones, he’s self-admittedly needing to develop his offspeed stuff. He features both a slider and a changeup, but neither are a plus pitch yet. With so many starting pitchers seemingly in front of him on the depth chart, one could see Bryse being converted to an elite relief pitcher where he can feature his fastball that I’d bet could run up to triple-digits in due time. With 58.2 innings of really good baseball under his belt at Rome, accompanied by both a low-BB rate and a high-K rate, I’d say he’s most definitely a big mover up the list on a loaded system, and could be a quick mover after the 2017 season.
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Cothman,
I agree about Wilson completely. I feel almost ashamed that I under ranked him, but that gives him the opportunity to slide up these rankings considerably by midseason.
On the other hand, #36 Connor Lien is likely completely out of the Top 50. He, like Randy Ventura, was a guy I grew to love in 2015. Unlike Ventura, though, he’s only gotten worse. Back in ‘15, he slashed .285/.347/.415 with incredible defense. While it would have been difficult to predict stardom based on his numbers, there was enough value here to predict a 2-3 fWAR season once Lien was established in the majors.
But that hope is a pipe dream now. He wasn’t terrible during an injury-shortened 2016, but has fallen off the map this season with a strikeout rate hovering around 40%. Even Rob Deer and Mark Reynolds are telling him to make some contact. Things were so bad that he spent a week at extended spring training to try to clear his head. Unfortunately, it appears like Lien’s prospect status has completely eroded or am I wrong?
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Tommy,
I cannot argue here, but I can also brag on myself a bit: I never bit on Lien and I have Chris Johnson to thank for that. The year of Lien’s breakout was 2 full years after the infamous .394 BABIP. Lien’s was .379 in 2015, and even with that, he didn’t break an .800 OPS. However, guys around Tomahawk Take were blowing up his defensive abilities and that combined with his speed made him a nice under the radar prospect. When Braves chose to leave him unprotected for the Rule-5 draft and he went unclaimed, it told me that no matter how great of a defensive Gandalf he could be, he’s just not going to be a big league commodity. As one can see this year, when his BABIP gets in the “league average” range, the offensive results are poor. You’re right in removing him from the list. Hopefully, for Lien he can turn it around...baseball is hard.
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Mr. Obvious,
Indeed, baseball is very hard. Sometimes, I admit I let my personal feelings overrule the logic side of me. I loved watching Lien in 2015. Still holding out hope he sells his soul for another BABIP-inflated season. It was kind of fun to watch the first time.
Onto a happier subject, Cristian Pache turns 19 next November, yet he's handling the South Atlantic League like a guy a few years older and with more experience than 57 games at rookie level. When Pache and Derian Cruz signed back in 2015, it was Cruz that garnered more accolades, but early in their careers, it's Pache who looks like a real prospect.
He's still learning to utilize his speed, but he's got the wheels to do some big things. So far, he's stolen 15 bases and has been caught just four times. But what really intrigues me is the potential pop in his bat. He has a big leg kick before driving forward in the box with a bat that explodes through the zone. It hasn't produced much in terms of real homerun power to this point, but the smart money is that he'll start popping a few in the near future. I had him ranked #26th coming into the season and he might not break into the Top 20 just yet - which is not a slight against him, but a representation of the talent throughout the system. Regardless, I have been impressed with a guy who only has five plate appearances during his brief career against a pitcher younger than him. Oh, and hey, he has elite center fielder potential in the field. Not that the Braves don't already have one of those, but it's great to keep cranking them out.
Despite the big leg kick, he's only striking out about 19% of the time against older and more experienced pitchers. The improvement in his walk rate (5.5% to 8.3%) is also exciting is as I look for progression in rate stats as a tell-tale sign of a rising prospect. So, my question is this, Ryan...how much power do you project Pache developing? I think he can be, at worst, a .150 ISO guy if he progresses like we hope he can. Is that too much to expect?
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TomCat,
The body, the frame to grow into, the speed...it’s all there. But really, the numbers aren’t. In 465 plate appearances, not a single dinger. What gives? I’ve got a theory, but let’s hold off a bit.
The positives, there’s much to like here as his speed, defensive efficiency, and ability to get on base is what’s driven his prospect rankings and like you stated, these skills are standing up* against competition older than him (it seems like we say this about every Braves prospect these days).
*Albeit, his .707 OPS leaves me wanting more and his .364 BABIP likely isn’t long-term sustainable
But the power? Many would think just by looking at his numbers that he must be a wiry kid, but that’s not the case. He’s 6’2, muscular, 185 pounds, and growing...so again, where’s the power? In the samples that I’ve seen (you can see it on YouTube, but I also subscribe to MILBTV so I’ve seen a15-20 more ABs than the norm) Pache seems to have a problem with weight distribution. So many times (to the point it seems intentional), he gets caught out on his front foot which all but crushes his ability to drive the ball. At this point, I feel it’s a habit he has to break that he probably developed early in his career to utilize his speed and get out of the box quick turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples. If he can stay back on the ball and generate the needed power from his legs, look out! Adding power to his game is the last thing that’s holding this kid back from being a 5-tool athlete on the heels of Ronald Acuna, but it’ll take a lot of time in the cages to work out an old habit that’ll likely take a while to die hard.
Here it is. The top five prospects of this year's Top 50. The elite of the elite, the best of the best, the cliche of the clicheiest (sp?). These are five players who all belong in each Top 100 countdown of the best prospects in the game. Suffice it to say, it's really hard to overhype this group.
Before I get to that, some sad news. The Top 50 has already seen a player get cut. #41 Steve Janas was released before spring training. I haven't seen any reasoning for the move, but the move was likely either a move based on Atlanta's ridiculous bullpen depth or a precursor to a move to one of Asia's professional leagues where Janas can make more money.
With that out of the way, let's get on with the show.
5. Kevin Maitan, SS, 17 years-old, Grade: B+
I first read about Maitan two-and-a-half years ago when former Fangraphs prospect guru Kiley McDaniel wrote, "Maitan has been compared to Miguel Cabrera by most of the scouts I’ve asked about him. He’s unusually physically mature for his age and flashes all the tools you want to see to throw that Cabrera comp around: he can play shortstop pretty well now, he’s got more raw power than most kids a few years older than him, he has smooth actions in defense and at the plate and so on." McDaniel is now an employee of the Braves and Maitan is now the Braves's biggest international signing in years.
Venezuela has produced a number of great hitters over the years with Cabrera the creme of the crop. To be compared to the surefire Hall of Famer is a true testament to how exciting Maitan is from a potential standpoint. A switch-hitter with a middle-of-the-order bat, Maitan has been loved by scouts since he was just entering his teenage years. The Braves quickly worked to get a handshake agreement and then made good on that agreement last July, signing the youngster to a $4.25 million signing bonus - a franchise-record.
What amazes me is that Maitan also a solid eye at the plate. This is a kid who just turned 17 the other day and he already has a good idea of the strikezone and is confident in both his eye and his ability to let a pitch go by in order to get a better pitch in the at-bat. Right now, he has five-tool potential, though many believe the speed will subside to some degree as he grows further into his at least 6'2" frame.
Where Maitan ultimately ends up on the field is still a question. While third base has often been tabbed as the likely destination, the Braves will let Maitan stick at shortstop until a move is necessary - if at all - because his value will be at its highest there.
Remember that Maitan has only played in some instructional league games, which aren't officially counted. He could start 2017 with Danville, though a more sensible landing spot in the Gulf Coast League is more likely. Whatever the case, Braves fans will probably wait until June to finally see him in action. As someone who is just over an hour away from Danville, you can bet I'll make sure to see him provided he makes a stop with the team.
Any time you get an opportunity to take a Top-10 talent with the #14th pick, you thank Jobu and do it. A back issue scared teams away from drafting Allard in 2015 as high as he deserved. The fearless Braves went high-ceiling as they have made a habit of doing under John Coppolella. Twenty months later, it looks like the luck of the Irish has definitely followed the Notre Dame grad and current general manager of the Braves.
No one doubted Allard's potential and so far, that potential has left little to doubt. After six innings of work in 2015, Allard pitched 87.2 innings last season - mostly with Rome. That leaves us with career numbers of 93.2 total innings, 107 strikeouts (29%), 25 walks (7%), and just a handful of homeruns allowed. Only three of the 370 batters he has faced were younger than him and most of his ERA issues from lat year were a result of three outings (his first two with Rome and July 28). Over his final six starts, he had a 2.17 ERA and struck out 41 in 37.1 innings. He finished his sophomore season with a dozen scoreless innings in the playoffs.
All of those numbers I just previously mentioned is a way of saying Allard is really good. Why is he so good? The lefty works off a fastball that includes a great deal of natural movement. Mature for his age, Allard will add and subtract velocity to keep the hitter off-balanced rather than stick to a low-to-mid-90's speed. His secondary options are just as good with a breaking changeup and plus-curveball that rivals many in the system.
We're just 93.2 innings into his career so my ranking reflects that a bit more than others, who may have him higher or at least grade him the top lefthanded arm in the system. I believe he can be that and could be #1 or #2 by midseason if he stars early in Florida. Allard won't turn 20 years-old until August 13 so he has plenty of time to continue to make every concerned evaluator during the 2015 draft look foolish.
No one could have predicted the meteoric climb Albies has taken since beginning his professional career in June of 2014. Signed to just a $350,000 signing bonus in 2013 during the Frank Wren-led regime, Albies was a smallish middle infielder with potential. Less than five years later, he's on the cusp of the major leagues and is just entering his Age-20 year. What an absolute find.
After blitzing the rookie leagues in '14, Albies became a major prospect with a .310/.368/.404 run in the South Atlantic League as an 18 year-old. Last year, he skipped right by the Carolina League and began the season with Mississippi. He had just two hiccups all season. In his first 35 games after a quick promotion to Gwinnett, Albies hit a miserable .226/.267/.336. He righted the ship to hit .282/.367/.376 over his next 21 games, but still was demoted back to Mississippi at the end of June. However, that was likely more of a move to get him time up the middle with a certain franchise cornerstone at shortstop as Albies had been moved to second three weeks before the demotion. Albies did well down the stretch for Mississippi and stayed at second after that aforementioned franchise cornerstone joined the big league team. Albies' season came to an unfortunate end in Game 1 of the Southern League playoffs with an elbow fracture.
Overall, despite that bad 35-game run with Gwinnett, Albies hit .292/.358/.420 on the season with 49 extra base-hits and 30 steals. A good shortstop, Albies defense at second, while inexperienced, gave the Braves reason to believe he could not only handle the position, but thrive. Overall, Albies carries a career .310/.377/.419 triple slash into 2017.
Albies' game still has room to grow. If he improves his walk rate from the 8% it's been the last two years into double digits, it would make him an even bigger weapon. The good news is that he flashed more power last year than any year before. If he keeps a nearly .130 ISO, or increases it, he has .800 OPS+ potential yearly, which, with his overall game, makes him a yearly option to post 4-6 fWAR seasons.
Detractors have often cited Albies' build, but Albies generates a lot of force in his swing and gets a good deal of exit velocity after connecting. The negative is that he puts the ball on the ground a lot, though he's not a punch-and-judy hitter. The ball screams off his bat and it's often beyond defenders before they can even react. He hits well from both sides of the plate and finds the gap frequently along the way. With his swing and profile, I doubt he'll put up many, if any, double digit homerun seasons, but he's not going to be an empty batting average guy, either. He's going to get his doubles and with his speed, he's going to turn some of them into triples.
The big question is when, not if, Albies makes his major league debut. The addition of Brandon Phillips and, before him, Sean Rodriguez seemed to point to the Braves going slow with Albies coming back from an elbow injury and that's the smart play. Recent news that Albies has not been cleared just yet also points to a slow start for the youngster to his 2017. Even without that fact, the Braves do not need to push Albies up the chain too quickly. Instead, he's likely to remain in the minors until summer when the Braves can better evaluate their options - both with Phillips and Jace Peterson in the majors and where Albies is at in his development. If he's deemed ready, the Braves seem likely to bring him up to begin what will hopefully be a long double play partnership with Swanson. It's going to be an exciting day for Braves fans when that day comes.
Some have soured on Newcomb, but not me. His final nine starts, I believe, are a sign that Newcomb could be ready for the breakthrough season that not only justifies this high of a ranking in a system as deep as Atlanta's, but also gets him to the major leagues.
Let's talk about those nine starts, which came after a particularly ugly seven-game stretch. From July 18th to the end of the regular season, Newcomb had a 2.26 ERA in 51.2 innings. He struck out 60 next to 21 walks. To put that in a different way, Newcomb struck out nearly 30% of all batters he faced over his final nine starts while walking just 10%. Now, ten percent of all batters may still sound a lot. The average major league starter walked 7.7% last year after all. But for Newcomb, it was a big deal. Before that nine-game stretch, he was striking out 24% of all batters and walking 13%. Now, nine games in a 27-game season don't tell the whole story, but neither does his full-season totals. Somewhere in the middle, that's the story of Newcomb's 2016. I choose to believe, though, that the story is one that suggests Newcomb is ready to start to look like the pitcher who was picked 15th overall out of Hartford back in 2014.
One reason I believe this is because the solid finish was in large part due to mechanical alterations meant to help Newcomb's control. The biggest result was simple - his delivery became easier to repeat, giving him the consistency that he lacked as a professional.
Newcomb's stuff is off the charts good. His fastball/slider is good enough that Newcomb has often been considered a potential reliever should starting prove to not be a fit for him. The big lefty could struggle for some time with walk totals, but that's more a byproduct of having ridiculous movement on his mig-90's fastball and changeup. His curve/slider is a hard spinner that, when Newcomb is ahead of the batter, can be difficult to both recognize and lay off.
Newcomb is far from a finished product and it could take a few years in the majors for him to really take the strides needed to reach his potential. I look for progression in the minors and in Newcomb, I see just that. The full season results are not overly impressive, but when the light switch was flipped on, we saw the version of Newcomb that makes scouts excited. If we see more of that in Gwinnett to open 2017, he'll be in the majors very soon.
Was there much doubt? Still technically a rookie and thus still a prospect in my book, Swanson is the only rookie on this list with a guaranteed spot on this season's roster and it's a pretty important one: starting shortstop and #2 hitter. The Dansby Era has definitely begun.
Acquired in the trade Dave Stewart still wakes up in a cold sweat over, Swanson toyed with the Carolina League to open 2016. He was brought to Mississippi by late April, replacing Albies in the process, and got off to a solid start there. However, his results stagnated from there. In a 23 game stretch from late May to late June, he slashed just .208/.283/.333. Another 15-game stretch in July resulted in a slash of .179/.277/.321. In fact, his final 15 games in the minors weren't much to write home about, but the Braves still brought him up to join the roster on August 17.
In 38 games, Dansby Swanson showed the National League that he's here to stay. He slashed .302/.361/.442, played great defense, hit three homers (including an inside-the-parker), and basically made the fans forget all about that guy who was traded in the Erick Aybar deal.
Now, the question is...just how good can he be in 2017? Well, it seems unlikely he'll maintain a .383 BABIP over a full season like he did in his month+ with the Braves in 2016. That said, he probably can post a better than .140 ISO and push his walk percentage above 9%, which will negate a drop in BABIP for the most part. Defensively, he should remain a solid defender who may never win a Gold Glove, but will be a plus player in the field. All in all, a 3 fWAR season is not too much to hope for during Swasnon's first rull season in the majors. The last Braves rookie position player to do that was Jason Heyward in 2010.
In Swanson, the Braves have a cornerstone - a guy to build around. While he lacks one standout skill, he rates extremely well in nearly everything. I could see him having a similar career as Michael Young, but a hopefully realistic part of me believes that's Swanson's projected floor and that the ceiling is much higher. Consider that it took Young two full seasons to do what Swanson seems capable of doing right now and Young was a year older during his rookie season. Hence why I think Swanson has a higher ceiling. Regardless, Young was a 23.8 fWAR player during his career. Those players don't just fall in your lap unless Dave Stewart gets really anxious to compete with the Dodgers.
That puts a cap on this year's preseason Top 50. Swanson seems like the proverbial choice by most publications and I do plan on comparing my ranking with other sources in the coming days to give some perspective. Thanks for reading and sometime near midseason, I plan on updating this list. At that point, Swanson will likely have lost his prospect status so a new #1 will be at the top of the list. Who will it be? Let me know in the comments.
2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects* 5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions) #52-43 #42-31 #30-21 #20-16 #15-11 #10-6 The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales 41. Steve Janas (released)
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder
30. Akeel Morris
29. Matt Withrow
28. Michael Mader
27. Juan Yepez
26. Christian Pache
25. Brett Cumberland
24. Luke Jackson
23. Derian Cruz
22. Braxton Davidson
21. Alex Jackson
20. Rio Ruiz
19. A.J. Minter
18. Lucas Sims
17. Patrick Weigel
16. Kyle Muller
15. Dustin Peterson
14. Joey Wentz
13. Travis Demerrite
12. Austin Riley
11. Max Fried
10. Ian Anderson
9. Ronald Acuna
8. Touki Toussaint
7. Luiz Gohara
6. Mike Soroka
5. Kevin Maitan
4. Kolby Allard
3. Ozzie Albies
2. Sean Newcomb
1. Dansby Swanson
Just ten prospects to go in this year's Top 50. This week, I will cover the bottom half of the Top Ten. It's difficult to not repeat yourself when talking about these ridiculously talented young pitchers the Braves have. Four of them make today's list and none of them can go legally buy alcohol yet. All have off-the-charts stuff with a breaking pitch that can buckle the knees of opposing hitters. Once again, it's a good time to a Braves fan.
As always, there are links to previous Top 50 capsules and a summary of the Top 50 players that have already been released, including today's five.
Did you know 2016's third overall selection's middle name is Theodore? I really wish he'd go by that instead of Ian. Theodore is a name Braves fans can chant as he strikes out Mookie Betts to end the 2019 World Series. I guess we can chant Ian, too, it just lacks a certain pizzazz. Oh, well, at least Atlanta will finally have another title, right?
The young righty was selected #3rd overall last year as much for his signability as his projectability, Anderson was a late signee only because he had to wait for his high school's graduation. Such a late start left him with just ten overall starts, split between the GCL squad and Danville. He was dominant during the first stop, striking out a batter for each 18 innings he threw and only allowing two unearned runs. He wasn't as good in Danville, but an 18-year-old holding his own there is plenty good in my book. In truth, he had one real stinker of a game on August 22, but was wonderful over his final two starts. A stinker can make your numbers look worse when you toss just 21.2 innings.
Anderson works off a mid-90's fastball that has a good deal of late life on it. His change-of-pace has plus potential at the major league level. A mid-80's pitch that he doesn't telegraph, it looks like a fastball right up until it dies at the plate and sinks under the swing of hitters. He also shows a curveball that he throws in high-70's to low-80's depending on how much looping break he wants on it.
What has always been impressive about Anderson, beyond his repertoire of pitches, is his poise and competitive nature on the mound. He might draw some comparisons to another slender right-hander who was a bulldog on the mound - Tim Hudson - though Anderson has better strikeout potential.
Anderson won't turn 19 until May 2. By that time, he'll likely be a few weeks into his first full season of professional ball with Rome. The sky is super high for Anderson as he moves into 2017. In a system with amazing pitching prospects, Ian Theodore Anderson has a chance to possibly be the best of the group.
Playing winter ball in Australia is often an oddity of a player's career. You do it once, have a bunch of memories about vegemite and fighting kangaroos, and that's about it. However, Ronald Acuna turned a month in Australia into a Evan Gattis-like explosive experience. In 20 games for Melbourne, the Venezuelan talent hit .375/.446/.556 with 2 homers and 13 steals. So amazing was his run with the Aces that the team dubbed him "The Answer to Everything." At least they didn't hype him up too much.
It was a great way to end what had been a disappointing 2016 for Acuna. To be clear, Acuna was not disappointing with the bat as he still raked. No, Acuna hit the shelf with a broken thumb or hand on May 9th and would miss more than three months before finally getting back into action in late-August. He finished the season on a tear and carries a seven-game hit streak in 2017. Overall, in just 42 games, Acuna slashed .312/.392/.429 with 4 homers and 14 steals. Give the kid roughly a .380 wOBA for his efforts.
Oh, and because it needs to be said, Acuna was one of the youngest players in the South Atlantic League. Despite his youth, he has shown advanced plate discipline (11.3% walk rate so far) and the potential to be a five-tool guy with his speed, defense, bat, and improving power. I can't speak too much on his arm, but I will say this - to only be credited with six outfield assists to this point next to two errors suggests that there may be a line in the scouting report that reads something like "If you run on him, be ready to grab your glove and head to your position." Just guessing, of course.
We only have 97 games - plus 20 games "down under" - to grade Acuna, but the ceiling is still being measured for the guy. Could he the best outfielder the Braves have developed since Andruw Jones? No pressure, but it's possible. With any luck, Acuna will stay in the lineup this year and we can see what the kid can do.
The Braves did the right thing in 2016 by holding Touki back a season after he struggled in his brief run with Rome the previous season. Like many Rome players, he struggled to open the season, but improved as the season continued. Over his last 17 games, which includes 16 starts, Toussaint struck out 104 in 89.1 innings with a 2.72 ERA and an 11% walk rate compared to the 15% rate before June. By the end of the season, the South Atlantic League had had just about enough of Touki. With any luck, the Florida State League will have a similar feeling by the time next summer is heating up.
By now, you probably know the story about Toussaint. Picked #16th overall in the 2014 draft, the Braves essentially bought Toussaint off the Diamondbacks in 2015 by taking on Bronson Arroyo's bloated salary. It was the kind of insane deal that got Dave Stewart fired from his general manager position. You could count on one hand the number of players with a higher ceiling that Toussaint entering the 2014 draft. Despite that knowledge, the Diamondbacks said, "yeah, but Arroyo's contract is a bit too much." It must have been hard to be a Diamondbacks fan during the Stewart years.
One word to sum up Toussaint is "raw." Another word could be "projection." As in, Toussaint's projection is all over the map. He could become a dominant starter - the kind of starter with filthy stuff that leads a staff into the playoffs. He could also become a tremendous closer who racks up K's and saves. Or...he could be a bust. There doesn't appear to be a lot of leeway between, though logically, even as a bust, he could still have a good deal of value similar to Juan Cruz.
Nothing Toussaint throws at the hitter stays straight for long. His mid-90's fastball gets a good deal of break away from lefties and cuts into righties. His change-up has a similar drop to Ian Anderson's as it comes to the plate when Toussaint has a feel for it. Of course, Toussaint's calling card is a curveball that is GIF-worthy.
If Toussaint cleans up his delivery as he did in the second half of 2016 and continues to pound the zone with strikes to set up his curve, he's going to be pretty tough to stop. If you get a chance to watch him this season, do it. He's got the stuff to throw a perfect game any given start.
Do you realize how good of a system the Braves have to have in order for a player of Gohara's stock to not only fail to rank as the top left-handed prospect in the system, but to also not even rank as the #2 southpaw prospect? Welcome to the Braves, Gohara. If you want to get to the front of the line, it's going to be a bit tougher than it was out west.
A rarity in baseball, Gohara was born in Brazil at the trading deadline in 1996. If you're curious, the Braves were quiet that day. Gohara is also a rarity in that he was still 16 years-old when he made his debut. Just to add to this because it shows how good the Mariners thought he could be, at 16 years-old, he made his debut in the Appalachian League for Pulaski. Sixteen years old. He didn't head to the Dominican Summer League or play with some high school kids in the Gulf Coast League. No, he went straight to the Appy League. The first batter he faced in his second game was Kyle Wren, who was six years older than Gohara. Two things have to happen to receive an assignment like that. The Mariners had to really love Gohara and they were convinced he was mature enough to handle it.
Since then, Gohara has both been babied to limit innings and slow to adapt to the professional game. Just to re-iterate a point: he's faced 914 batters during his four-year career. Roughly 70 came against guys younger than he was. Finally, in 2016, Gohara started to catch up. Still 2-to-3 years younger than the competition, Gohara decreased his walk rate from the previous year by about 7% (12.7% to 8.2%) and saw a similar increase in his strikeout rate. Already difficult to elevate the ball against, Gohara surrendered just two homeruns in 69.2 innings. He ended the year with 11.2 innings in the Arizona Fall League against far-more-advanced competition and struck out 19 compared to just three walks.
Why did Jerry Dipoto trade his talented left-hand prospect? There have been reports about work ethic issues and problems controlling his weight. He's a big boy, that's clear. But he's got tremendous athletism, which helps him repeat his delivery and pound the zone with a mid-90's fastball that can close in on triple digits.
Gohara's slider has plus potential and if he develops his changeup, the ceiling the Mariners originally saw in him will be much easier to reach. The Braves could start him in Rome, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him in Florida after his positive 2016 campaign. If there is ever a double header with Toussaint/Gohara going for the Florida Fire Frogs, I might have to drop everything and leave Virginia for that experience.
I'm getting tired of writing about all of these amazing pitching prospects.
Just kidding. I love it. Mike Soroka was just 18 when the South Atlantic League season began. He was less than a year removed from graduating from Bishop Carroll High School all the way up in Calgary. Despite that, the ever-aggressive Braves started him in Rome and he became one of Rome's most consistent starters. Almost half of his 24 starts were classified as quality starts. Ten times, Soroka threw at least five innings while allowing a run or less (which would be zero, fyi). He finished sixth in the league in innings pitched. Of the top 21 leaders in innings pitched during the 2016 South Atlantic League season, Soroka is the only one who wasn't in his age-20 season or older.
Just to make this clear, he was really good. Did I mention he's still a teenager? Like every Braves pitching prospect, he has a good heater that moves. For Soroka, he can reach the mid-90's, but stays a tick or two below that for the most part. He's fearless on the mound and already willing and confident to pitch inside with his fastball to set up his plus curveball. When he's got feel for his curve, he'll buckle a lot of right-handed batters' knees. His changeup needs work, but has good potential.
Soroka probably won't mimic some of the strikeout numbers of the other top pitching prospects the Braves have, but despite being a high school selection, I believe his floor is very high. My belief in his high floor is why I place him sixth in my rankings. I have a great deal of confidence that Soroka will reach that floor with a chance to be even better. His ceiling isn't as high as Toussaint's or Gohara's, but I love Soroka's chances to lock into a middle-of-the-rotation cog at the very least. If he develops his changeup a bit more - or adds a different offspeed delivery - Soroka has a chance to be an ace.
2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects* 5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions) #52-43 #42-31 #30-21 #20-16 #15-11 The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales
41. Steve Janas
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder
30. Akeel Morris
29. Matt Withrow
28. Michael Mader
27. Juan Yepez
26. Christian Pache
25. Brett Cumberland
24. Luke Jackson
23. Derian Cruz
22. Braxton Davidson
21. Alex Jackson
20. Rio Ruiz
19. A.J. Minter
18. Lucas Sims
17. Patrick Weigel
16. Kyle Muller
15. Dustin Peterson
14. Joey Wentz
13. Travis Demerrite
12. Austin Riley
11. Max Fried
10. Ian Anderson
9. Ronald Acuna
8. Touki Toussaint
7. Luiz Gohara
6. Mike Soroka
A few hours ago, I released the first part of prospects #20-#11 for this year's Top 50. With how amazingly deep the Braves' system is, even players just inside the Top 20 deserve so much digital ink that it turns what are supposed to be regular three-paragraph recaps into longer pieces. Next week (hopefully Tuesday), I'll release the next section of prospects, which will cover #10 to #6. If all goes well, the Top 5 will be released the morning of pitchers and catchers reporting. Thank you for your patience.
After an uneven year with Carolina, expectations weren't very high for Peterson entering 2016. What followed was Peterson's best season since the Padres picked him 50th overall in 2013. Despite being one of the Southern League's youngest players, Peterson slashed .282/.343/.431 and was on pace for an even bigger season before a before a late 25-game stretch (.606 OPS) dropped his numbers. According to Fangraphs, Peterson had a .356 wOBA and 124 wRC+ - the first time he finished above 100. The strikeout rate was the lowest of his career, his ISO was the highest, and even his defense graded much better in his second year in left field.
Overall, it was the kind of season the Braves envisioned when they acquired him from the Padres in the Justin Upton trade. Now comes the hard part - succeeding for a season is one thing, but if Peterson wants to be a starter in the majors, he's going to have to show he's not a one-hit wonder. Here's the good news. There's enough reason to believe that we haven't even seen the best of Peterson yet.
Consider this. Peterson has played young at nearly every stop. As a 19 year-old, he was in the low-A Midwest League where he logged just 18 PA against pitchers younger than he was. At 20 years-old, he played in the never-easy-to-hit Carolina League. Just eight times did he step into the batter's box to face a guy younger than he was. Last year, it was a scant 18 times. Three years - just 44 PA against pitchers younger than Peterson was at the time. He's been behind the curve from the get-go, which makes his success last year even more promising. Consider also that the former third baseman's defense went from a -12 in 2015 according to Clay Davenport's defensive metrics to a 1 last year. One doesn't sound great, but it's a significant improvement.
Peterson lacks a one big tool. That's to say none of his skills will likely get a 60 or better grade on a 20-80 scale. On the other hand, potential-wise, he's average or better in every category. He's got enough power, enough speed, and makes enough solid contact to put together a solid, if not unspectacular, stat line. If his defense is real, he could have a similar batting line to Melky Cabrera. I know Braves fans hate that name - I do, too - but Cabrera has a career .286/.337/.417 triple slash. I could see Peterson posting a bit better marks in OBP and SLG with a slightly lower batting average, but if the defense is for real, that's a valuable player. Maybe not a franchise cornerstone, but valuable.
Selected four picks before #16 Kyle Muller, Wentz is quite similar to the the Jesuit Prep flamethrower. Like Muller, Wentz is a prep star lefty who also flashed a good bat and Top 20-30 potential. Some dead arm and signability concerns for the UVA commit pushed him a little lower in the draft than he should have been, which was a big get for the Braves.
Unlike Muller, Wentz didn't stay in the Gulf Coast League for long. After 12 scoreless innings, five walks, and 18 K's over four starts in the GCL, Wentz headed north to Danville to finish the year. His numbers there aren't so gaudy largely due to control issues, but he did finish with three earned runs allowed over his last 14.2 innings with 16 K's (and nine walks).
One last similarity with Muller - Wentz is a big guy. Listed 6'5" and 210 pounds, Wentz has a clean delivery that will serve him well as he progresses. Wentz relies on a low-to-mid 90's fastball that may have even more untapped velocity. He gets good armside run on it as well. His curveball has big-time potential while his changeup, while still a work in progress, could be a plus pitch. If he puts his late season control issues behind him - and there's really no reason to believe he won't - Wentz could be the best of the trio of excellent prep arms picked in the '16 draft.
Lucas Harrell was a Brave for all of ten seconds (okay, 29.1 innings). The pitching-starved Rangers were so desperate that they handed an actual prospect over to Atlanta for Harrell. Notice to major league general managers - you probably shouldn't talk to John Coppolella when you're vulnerable. He's like Frank Underwood. He'll sell you on the worst possible thing and make you think it was your brilliant idea. Plus, I'm really not convinced Coppy wouldn't throw you in front of a train if he had to. Spoiler alert, by the way.
Back to Demeritte. All the way back in 2013, the Rangers spent the #30th pick on the Windor, Georgia product. The Braves followed by picking Jason Hursh. Six picks later, Arizona grabbed Aaron Blair. Now, all three belong to the Braves and Demeritte might be the best of the trio. Demeritte spent the summer in rookie ball before landing in low-A the next season. Since then, his wOBA has ranged from .344 to the .390s last season. Suffice it to say, he has a bat. A slugging second baseman, Demeritte has carried a 12% walk rate and has swiped 27 bases the last two seasons combined.
The catch, however, is that he strikes out a lot. As in 34% of the time. How difficult is it to be an effective major league hitter and strikeout that often? Well, over the last four years, there are 15 instances of a player striking out out at least 30% of the time while also having enough at-bats to qualify for the batting title. Nine had 1.0 fWAR or lower. On the flipside, there are also four instances of a 3.0 fWAR or better. That's a way of saying it's possible to be successful and still strike out at a ridiculously inflated frequency - it's just not the norm.
Two things must continue to improve Demeritte's chances of being a valuable major leaguer and I believe both will. It's not particularly easy to strike out at least 170 times and still on-base .360 or better as Demeritte did last year. In major league history, it's only happened 31 times. In each case, the batter walked at least 72 times and hit at least 17 homeruns. With Demeritte's power and eye, I believe he has a shot to be #32. Furthermore, Demeritte's defense is quite good at second base - good enough to stick despite the gaudy power numbers.
Of course, for Demeritte, second base seems like a longshot considering the presence of Ozzie Albies. The Braves could try him in left field and he has played some third base in the minors as well. Ticketed to start next season in Double-A, Demeritte overall game could get him to the bigs in a hurry.
Though 63 games, 2016 was looking like a lost season for Austin Riley. The preparations had been made for articles detailing how young Riley was, how he could still impress, how we needed to be patient. All of those still apply, but after a .252/.299/.372 start to his first full season, Riley turned it on to quiet the detractors. Over his final 66 games, Riley slashed .289/.348/.581 with an absurd 17 homeruns. And with that, we are excited again.
Riley finished 2016 with 20 homeruns and in case that's not impressive enough, the last time a Braves farmhand hit 20 homers was 2013 when Ernesto Mejia and Robby Hefflinger both reached the 20-homer plateau. The last time a Rome player did it was Evan Gattis in 2011. Riley's season also scored high on a few metrics, including a .360 wOBA and 128 wRC+ to go along with his .208 ISO. The former 41st overall selection had a great year even if it started terribly.
Riley's prospect status is interesting because he was arguably a better pitching prospect heading into the 2015 draft and many expected teams to try to push Riley to the mound. The Braves gave him a chance to hit and he's quickly became one of their top prospects and best power prospect in the system.
Questions remain about Riley's contact rate (27% strikeout rate), plate discipline (8% walk rate), and his defense (-3 according to Clay Davenport's defensive stats). These are fair enough criticisms, though a player with Riley's age and upside can certainly improve upon what concerns there are about his game right now. He'll have an assignment with Florida to open 2017 and could be knocking on the door to join the Braves, if all goes well, by the end of 2018.
After missing a year due to Tommy John surgery, Fried started over in low-A ball as part of Rome's stacked rotation. Like many members of the team, he started slow with a 5.21 ERA during his first 48.1 innings (28 BB, 40 K, 5 HR). However, over his next 54.2 innings, he found his footing. He allowed just a 2.80 ERA, struck out 72, and walked a mere 19 batters. That, my dear readers, is a definition of someone flipping the light switch.
Fried was a big prospect well before he was included in the Justin Upton trade. In fact, if I recall correctly, the Braves settled on him after the Padres balked at the idea of including Matt Wisler. The Braves ended up with both and Fried definitely has a higher ceiling.
Fried's velocity isn't quite as noteworthy as some other Braves' prospects, nor is the movement on his heater as great. What Fried does have is the ability to control his heater whereas other pitchers in the system struggle to consistently locate it. Fried rarely grooves a fastball into the zone and is able to often use both sides of the plate with the pitch. His changeup isn't superb, but he does a great job disguising it with the same pitching motion as his heater. He'll use those two pitches to try to get ahead before going to his curveball, which has ridiculous break to it and will be the reason Fried puts up solid K numbers as he moves up the system.
Like many pitchers in this system, you can make the argument that Fried's stuff could be the best. I rank him a little lower than others because while I do agree, from an experience standpoint, leaving him in low-A was an appropriate move, he faced a lot of younger batters. He subsequently owned them. The results against older batters were a little less impressive (.253/.343/.460). I don't consider that damning or even that informative, but it's there. Hopefully, we see Fried move on up to Double-A - if not to start the year, soon after - which will allow us a better opportunity to judge where the lefty is.
2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects* 5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions) #52-43 #42-31 #30-21 #20-16 The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales
41. Steve Janas
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder
30. Akeel Morris
29. Matt Withrow
28. Michael Mader
27. Juan Yepez
26. Christian Pache
25. Brett Cumberland
24. Luke Jackson
23. Derian Cruz
22. Braxton Davidson
21. Alex Jackson
20. Rio Ruiz
19. A.J. Minter
18. Lucas Sims
17. Patrick Weigel
16. Kyle Muller
15. Dustin Peterson
14. Joey Wentz
13. Travis Demerrite
12. Austin Riley
11. Max Fried
These prospect capsules are taking forever. It's with that in mind that I've split this week's ten pack into two parts just to help with loading times and whatnot. This is Part 1 while Part 2 will be released within an hour.
I did want to touch on something I forgot to mention before - my grading scale. I want to start by making it clear that I'm not an expert or a scout. I base my grades on scouting reports I've read, footage I've watched, conversations I've shared, and stats. In addition, I'll use what level the player is at versus his age. Overall, don't get too upset if I grade lower than others. I'm a very hard grader.
2016 was just what the doctor ordered for Ruiz to get back into the prospect game. After being part of the Evan Gattistrade, Ruiz struggled tremendously in 2015 with Mississippi. He did finish strong, though, with a .289/.370/.459 clip over the final 154 PA. The former fourth-rounder used that momentum to start 2016 off right with a nice spring training and a hot bat to begin the year with Gwinnett. Over his first 107 PA, Ruiz hit .337/.411/.495 and people were already calling for his promotion to the bigs. He would taper off badly in May, but hit well enough down the stretch to finish .271/.355/.400 with a .342 wOBA and 118 RC+. It's worth stating that Ruiz received just nine plate appearances against pitchers younger than he is. His season was rewarded with a five-game run in Atlanta where he picked up two hits, including a triple.
What do the Braves actually have in Ruiz? He doesn't do anything exceptionally well, but does enough positive things to project major league success. He's always shown a solid eye at the plate with a walk rate ranging from 10.6% to 13.6% above rookie ball. The strikeout rate hit 20% last year, but he's not hurt by making too little contact. Defensively, he lacks the lateral movement needed to be an elite defender, but does have a strong and accurate arm and makes the plays he can get to.
He's never hit more than a dozen homers in a season and probably won't be a yearly 20-homer guy in the majors. He may also be platoon-limited with a .293/.229 OBP/SLG against southpaws in 2016 and .306/.384 the year before. While I have a tough time believing Ruiz is a long-term option the Braves can plop down at third base and not have to tinker with, I do think his skillset can help the Braves as early as 2017.
When the guy you grade as a first round talent is available in the second round, you take him even if he's injured and won't pitch until the next season. That's what the Braves did in 2015 when they selected A.J. Minter out of Texas A&M. Now, less than two years since that June day, the Braves could see Minter break camp with their team for 2017. If there's one thing this Braves front office has done repeatedly with prospects is aim high. In Minter, they did just that.
After Minter recuperated from Tommy John surgery performed early in 2015, he made his professional debut with Rome on May 5 of last year. He needed just a handful of games in the South Atlantic League to shake off the rust and allowed no runs in 6.2 innings with six K's and one walk. Late in May, he was promoted to Carolina and over eight games, continued to hold the opposition scoreless in 9.1 innings with four walks and ten strikeouts. He would spend the final two months of 2016 with Mississippi and while he finally gave up some runs, he struck out 31 over 18.2 innings. Overall, in 31 games, Minter had a 1.30 ERA and a FIP nearly as good over 34.2 innings. He walked just eleven batters (8%) and picked up 47 strikeouts (35%).
Minter has worked hard to clean up his delivery, which is only going to make his 97 mph heater all the more deadly. Not content with velocity, Minter gets tremendous movement with the pitch and he's capable of throwing it up in the zone or dropping it low. He'll pair that devastating pitch with a slider, though it won't look like many sliders you are used to. It dives into lefties and moves away from righties, the opposite of what you might expect from a left-handed pitcher. Minter also has a change, though that's a holdover from his college starting days and I never saw it in what video I watched of Minter.
My ranking here is based on the idea that Minter won't be later moved to the rotation. It's always a possibility and would definitely improve his value, but I believe the Braves see him as a reliever and a high-leverage one at that. I believe he'll become that as soon as the second half of 2017. He'll face some stiff competition this spring as Ian Krol was awesome last year and Paco Rodriguez has the experience to match a similar pedigree as Minter. If the Braves go with three lefties, it could open the door for Minter. Personally, I doubt that as Minter was never pushed to throw back-to-back games in 2016. The Braves might want to see that first with Gwinnett before bringing him to SunTrust - though I would be shocked if Minter has a healthy campaign and doesn't play in the majors at some point.
It seems like Sims has been in the system for a decade, though it's only been half of that since the Frank Wren-era Braves took him with the 21st pick of the 2012 draft. Sims was a callback to an older era of selecting the best prep players from Georgia who often grew up big Braves fans. Sims became the top pitching prospect in the system after 2013 when he finished with 134 K's in 116.2 innings for Rome. The season included a 2.62 ERA and 3.09 FIP. In a system dying for players with high-end projection, Sims stood out as someone to dream big about.
Subsequent efforts have been a mixed bag. The strikeouts have been there (9.7 K/9 in 2015, 10.1 K/9 last year), but the walks have subsequently climbed to an unacceptable rate. Last year, he walked nearly six every nine innings. While a number of Braves' minor league arms disappointed in 2016, Sims may have been the most disappointing because he had finished 2015 on a hot streak with Mississippi and was one of the stars of the Arizona Fall League to end the year.
Sims relies on a low-90's fastball that he can get up to 96-97 mph. Like nearly every top Braves' pitching prospect, he not only has great velocity, but superb movement. For strikeouts, he goes to a curveball that has late break on it that, if Sims is right, leads to a lot of whiffs. He also has a changeup that is inconsistent, but excellent when he's on and a slider that he's still trying to get feel for.
Many have suggested that Sims' profiles best as a reliever. I'm not ready to agree just yet, but the control issues are concerning. Ignoring injuries, there's only two ways a pitcher with Sims' stuff doesn't become a good major league pitcher: nothing between the ears or hurting himself because he can't harness his outstanding stuff. I still have a good deal of hope for Sims, but he cannot stagnate for too much longer because the arms that are coming have even higher ceilings.
The 2015 draft for the Atlanta Braves has a chance to be franchise-altering. In addition to the big two names at the front of the draft in Kolby Allard and Mike Soroka, the Braves also picked Minter (#19), Lucas Herbert (#32), and the guy who will be revealed at #12 in the second part of this update. In the seventh round, they grabbed University of Houston right-hander Patrick Weigel. Minter has the best shot to be the first Brave from that draft to make it to the majors, but Weigel's not far behind.
Weigel flew under the radar heading into 2016 because of his lower-profile draft selection and mediocre numbers with Danville. He broke out in 2016, though. In 149.2 innings, Weigel struck out 152, walked 52, and had a 2.47 ERA. Most of that was at Rome, though Weigel did log 20.2 innings with Mississippi to close the season.
Last summer, Baseball America was asked this question: is Weigel a seventh round steal? This line from J.J. Cooper was telling - "He might be a little older than some of his teammates, but on one of the best pitching staffs in the minors, Weigel’s pure stuff is as good as anyone else in the Rome rotation." That was a rotation with Allard and Soroka, along with Touki Toussaint (also unranked so far), Ricardo Sanchez (#33), and the guy who will be ranked #11th in the second part of this update. That's some incredible praise.
Weigel has a hard fastball with arm-side movement that can reach the high 90's. He has three other pitches and all have potential. The slider is the best of the trio and is a hard breaking pitch that gets more vertical movement than horizontal. Weigel also has a looping curveball that changes the batter's eye and a changeup that he's shown improved feel for.
A reliever in college, Weigel not only could beat the higher-drafted duo of teenage arms picked ahead of him, but he has a shot to be a very productive pitcher in the majors.
0.65 ERA. 1.88 FIP. 35% strikeout rate compared to an 11% walk rate. No homers allowed. Older hitters had a triple slash of .145/.263/.145 against him. Yeah, I'd say that's a good start to a career.
Drafted out of Dallas's Jesuit College Prep after winning a state championship as a senior, Muller was a late bloomer ahead of the draft that the Braves had to convince Muller to not become a Longhorn after graduating. Fortunately, they were able to and those stats I relayed in the first paragraph were the results over a 27.2 inning stint in the Gulf Coast League. Big and strong at 6'6", 225 pounds, Muller was also a big target with the bat (one of the top prep homerun hitters in the country) before giving that up to give the Braves yet another high-profile lefty arm.
A MLB.com Top 25 prospect before the draft, Muller has mid-90s velocity to go with a curveball that has taken amazing strides since his junior year of hifh school. He's also shown improved feel for his changeup and as he continues to perform, he'll continue to rocket up these rankings.
(Part 2 to be released in a few hours.) 2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects* 5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions) #52-43 #42-31 #30-21
The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales
41. Steve Janas
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder
30. Akeel Morris
29. Matt Withrow
28. Michael Mader
27. Juan Yepez
26. Christian Pache
25. Brett Cumberland
24. Luke Jackson
23. Derian Cruz
22. Braxton Davidson
21. Alex Jackson
20. Rio Ruiz
19. A.J. Minter
18. Lucas Sims
17. Patrick Weigel
16. Kyle Muller
True story. When I originally heard the Braves signed a new outfielder, my first thought was, "Xavier Nady is still around?"
But that was not to be as the Braves added local product Xavier Avery to a minor league pact. The left-hand hitting outfielder just turned 27 on New Year's Day and graduated from Cedar Grove High School (Ellenwood, GA) back in 2008. That was when the Orioles picked him in the second round. He quickly inked a contract with the O's to begin his career.
Not Nady's minor league career includes one year of double-digit homeruns, two years of 30+ doubles, five seasons of 30+ stolen bases, and a career-best .756 OPS in 2014 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. In addition to his time with the O's, Avery has played for the Mariners and in one year, had runs with the Triple-A squads for the Tigers, Twins, and Giants. Last year, his ninth year in professional ball, was a homecoming of sorts as he returned to the Orioles' organization and hit .248/.332/.363 in the International League.
Avery's greatest asset is the ability to play a passable center field - though Clay Davenport's metrics paint the picture of someone better suited for left field. Regardless, it's not like the Braves don't need bodies for the outfield. With Connor Lien likely returning to Mississippi while Dustin Peterson climbs to Gwinnett, the rest of the Gwinnett outfield includes holdovers Ronnier Mustelier, Mel Rojas Jr., and Matt Tuiasosopo along with newcomer Lane Adams. Of course, there's also the possibility of Emilio Bonifacio. That doesn't include the chance that one of the previous names will make the final roster coming out of spring training as a 4th outfielder.
Avery is unlikely to be part of that mix, though he did have a 32-game run in the majors back in 2012. Nevertheless, you need bodies at Triple-A and Avery is that.
For all of the Braves' minor league free agent comings and goings, you can see this page.
