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Showing posts with label AbrahanGuiterrez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label AbrahanGuiterrez. Show all posts

Wednesday, October 11, 2017

Organizational Overview: Catcher

WhatProsWear
Yesterday, we began a series looking at the best prospects by position starting with catcher, but I'd be remiss if we didn't also look at where the Braves stand at catcher right now. After all, just because a position is a strength in the minors doesn't need help right now. Conversely, a position like first base looks pretty weak in the minors, but the Braves aren't that interested in addressing that because of who they have in the majors.

This series of articles will look at both the recent past - especially 2017 - and the foreseeable future. It will take into account the current major league roster, the current depth in the minors, and the future of the position. Think of this series as a way to look at the strengths and weaknesses of a roster before attempting to fix problems moving forward. I will use some of the information I already released about the current roster makeup as a reminder.

Signed: Kurt Suzuki ($3.5M)
Arbitration: None
Renewal: David Freitas and Tony Sanchez
Option: Tyler Flowers ($4M, $300K buyout)
Current Projection: $7.5M

On a roster in flux, there is some degree of stability behind the plate. Tyler Flowers will almost certainly be brought back for 2018 and once again will be paired with Kurt Suzuki. We will get to the details on how effective this duo was in 2017, but it's very important to remember that the price per value here is exceptionally high. The Braves are essentially paying the price for a medium-grade starter for two catchers who are capable of being starters in the majors. However, both are probably better for the time share they played under last season. Catchers are naturally prone to breaking down as the season progresses, but the Braves avoided that by having their duo share the load.

The other 40-man options right now are unlikely to be in the mix by opening day. Freitas is Triple-A filler while Sanchez, more known for his defense, didn't even catch an inning after being acquired at the waiver-trade deadline.

Comparison - The Majors

The duo of Flowers and Suzuki lack the name recognition and neither will be All-Stars in 2018, but for one year, they gave the Braves the best production from behind the plate in the league. Only four teams received at least 4 WAR from their catchers in 2017 and only the Braves pushed over the 5 WAR cliff - finishing with 5.1 fWAR to be exact. They were tied for fourth in homers, third in ISO, first in wOBA, and first in wRC+. Defensively, they were slightly below-average - largely because Flowers gives up defensive value for framing - something he's the best at in baseball.

Because the Braves can keep both Flowers and Suzuki moving forward, the position looks to have zero upheaval heading into 2018. It might be a pipe dream to expect the Braves to get another 5-win season from their catchers - it was shocking that it happened once - but both Flowers and Suzuki credit Kevin Seitzer for their improvements at the plate and the Braves certainly could bring back Seitzer for another season. That would keep a good team together for another year, though the Braves are rumored to look at some considerable alterations to their coaching staff despite bringing back Brian Snitker.

Regardless, the Braves should rank among the top 10 or so teams heading into 2018 behind the plate even if individually, both of their catchers are ranked much lower. The Cubs, Dodgers, Giants, Yankees, Marlins, and possibly the Mariners should all rank ahead of them on the strength of their number one catcher. The Orioles and Tigers, a combined 7.2 fWAR between them, will be tasked with rebuilding their catching situation. Welington Castillo could return to the Orioles, but after a big year, he'll likely seek out a long-term deal rather than come back on a player's option while the Tigers already dealt Alex Avila last season.

Obviously, there are a lot of dominoes that will fall this offseason, but the fact the Braves have two respectable catchers who put up the kind of numbers that they did in 2017 makes this position a strength heading into 2018 compared to the rest of the league.

Comparison - Immediate Depth

I don't want you to get the wrong idea - this is simply what kind of depth is already projected to be in the minors who could be on the major league roster when the season opens next year. The Braves have a lot of catching prospects - and I'll get back to them - but their best prospects are not likely going to be in the mix next April. However, the Braves do have Kade Scivicque and that isn't the worst thing in the world. Scivicque missed our Top 5, but is probably a Top 50 prospect in this loaded system so don't sleep on him. He doesn't project as much more than a backup in the majors, but is smart and capable behind the plate. He has some gap power and while aggressive at the plate, will make enough solid contact to possibly post a good average if the BABIP allow it.

The Braves could bring back Freitas or Sanchez for more depth and they also have Sal Giardina and Joseph Odom, who both appeared in Gwinnett last year. Neither, however, project as much more than organizational filler and the Braves don't need Freitas or the rarely utilized Sanchez. Beyond them, you have last year's Double-A duo of Jonathan Morales and Alex Jackson. Morales is a lot like Giardina and Odom, but Jackson is a legit prospect if he can stay behind the plate. Actually, with his bat, he's a legit prospect anywhere, but he brings more value as a catcher. Reports were mixed about Jackson, but he did appear to look much more comfortable as the season progressed after moving from the outfield. If he continues to respond to coaching, Jackson could be knocking on the door sometime next summer. Despite not being in the mix when the season opens, Jackson is still slated to open 2018 in Gwinnett if only because that's where the at-bats because there's so much depth behind him. Even if an injury opened a spot in the bigs, I think Scivicque is ahead of Jackson for the time being, but at some point in 2018, that's going to change.

I'd classify the immediate depth as average, but trending up.

Comparison - The Future

The Braves might not have any of their catchers make one of the big Top 100 Prospects list this winter, but the depth here is off-the-charts. I already mentioned Jackson, and he received the most points for our top catching prospect in our recent list. The great thing about the catching depth is that it's spread out pretty well. Here's a brief projection with the Top 5 catching prospects and others that likely will be in the mix.

Gwinnett: Alex Jackson (#1), Kade Scivicque (Honorable mention), Joseph Odom.
Mississippi: Brett Cumberland (#3), Jonathan Morales, Sal Giardina
Florida: Lucas Herbert (#5), Carlos Martinez, Tanner Murphy
Rome: William Contreras (#2), Hagen Owenby
Danville: Abrahan Gutierrez (#4), Alan Crowley, Zack Soria

Not too shabby. The best combinations of offense/defense of the group are likely 2-3 years away in Contreras and Gutierrez, but there's a pair of good offensive talents in Herbert and Cumberland with a lottery ticket in Herbert mixed in whose bat could develop well enough to increase his prospect standing. This list does not include Drew Lugbauer, who was classified as a first basemen due to where he played the most. Still, Lugbauer gives the Braves another possibility even if it's as a part-time catcher/corner infielder coming off the bench.

No matter how you slice it, the future is a major strength for the Braves and likely one of the best catching prospect situations in baseball - if not the best.

The Big Picture

When it comes to the catcher position, there are few teams in a better position than the Braves. Sure, the chances of the Braves having the best production in baseball from their catchers in 2018 is not high, but there's also a strong chance that both Flowers and Suzuki perform well enough to lead the Braves to a solid season from behind the plate. The coming attractions, though, is where the Braves turn the catcher position into something special. It's hard not to think the Braves should be good behind the plate for the next decade.

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

WOW's Top 5 Catching Prospects

The 2017 season for the Atlanta Braves has come to a close and now we begin to look forward into 2018 and beyond. This week, we begin a series that looks at each position and the prospects that the organization currently have - starting with a position of great depth in catcher. It wasn’t long ago that the Braves had Cristian Bethancourt and that was about it. Nowadays, that has changed as all five catchers who made this list likely will be in our preseason Top 50 (provided they aren’t traded). In fact, a sixth catcher will likely get included in our Top 50 who wasn’t voted into this Top 5. That’s how deep this position is now.

Later this week, we’ll publish the first base list, which is...well, not quite as deep. Or deep at all.

Here’s how we arrived at our list. - each of the three writers at Walk-Off Walk voted on their Top 5 catchers (plus one extra) and we took the composite rank. Ties are broken by the individual’s highest ranking among the voters. Positions are determined by which position a person played the most at (with a few exceptions).

Also receiving votes: Kade Scivicque

Top 5 Atlanta Braves Catching Prospects


Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
1. Alex Jackson

Tommy: With Jackson, the question is less his bat, but it's still worth starting there because he had the kind of year many expected would be the norm for him after being the sixth overall selection of the 2014 draft by Seattle. He slashed .267/.328/.480 on the year with 19 homeruns while taking his first swings at both High-A and Double-A ball. Now, we can't NOT mention the 26% strikeout rate with a walk rate about 20% less, but it's still a solid showing for his Age-21 season. This was also Year 1 of the catching experiment. A backstop in high school, Jackson was converted to the outfield after the Mariners selected him and remained there for the first three years of his career. He wasn't an asset behind the plate, but he looked more and more comfortable as the season progressed and the Braves gave him more and more time as a catcher. Early returns on his framing were encouraging in that he looks average there. I say that's encouraging because if your baseline is average, that means you could improve to make framing a solid skill. He's got the arm for the position, but the footwork and pop-time will need a good deal of work. Keep in mind - this season was about finding out if Jackson could catch at a reasonable level. I think he can do that enough to stay there. He may never be a defensive marvel, but he could be better than Evan Gattis and with his offensive potential, that's plenty of value. Of course, a switch back to the outfield remains a possibility.

Ryan: I saw some video early in the season of Alex Jackson behind the plate and it was being nice to say he needed work. However, I watched quite of bit of him catching throughout the season and he improved considerably. By season’s end, one could squint and see a catcher in the making. Still, it was barely over a 50 game sample and that’s just not enough to prove/disprove anything. I think he ends up being a catcher at the big league level but it could take 2 more full years for that to happen.

Stephen: So, I’m usually the low man on Jackson’s ability to stay at catcher. I personally asked two scouts while at AA game what his future position would be and both said outfield without hesitation. This lines up with just about everything I’ve read from scouts and evaluators. He’s still young enough where nothing is written in stone but if his bat starts advancing at a higher rate than his glove, the organization is going to have to decide whether a Bryce Harper-like path is optimal for Alex. If putting him in the OF gets him in the lineup quicker, they might make the move. The biggest thing he has to work at the plate is the K rate. Get that under 20% and he’s a major league hitter right now. I’ve got high hopes for Jackson as a hitter and as a LF, I think he’s a major league regular.


Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
2. William Contreras

Tommy: The only reason - and I mean the only reason - that Contreras wasn’t my #1 was because he’s still in rookie ball and I think Jackson’s bat is so good that he’s on a path to the majors regardless of position. That said, I may change my mind by the time we reconvene for a preseason Top 50. Contreras is a joy to watch from a defensive standpoint. Such a joy that you almost forget that he hit .290/.379/.432 this season as a 19-year-old in the college-age Appalachian League. The defense, though, is worth the price of admission (well, at least in the minors). He’s smooth behind the plate and athletic. The framing is difficult to judge at this point, but he seems to have a feel for it. Footwork needs improvement, but the arm is a true 70-grade weapon - at least. Frankly, the more I write about him, the more I want to change my vote. If you followed me on Twitter during the Danville Braves' games I saw this year, you know that my man crush for Contreras grew every time I saw him. In an organization full of exciting prospects, only a select few are more intriguing to me than Contreras.

Ryan: Contreras is the guy that we as Braves fans should be most excited about in terms of a real catcher. He’s got the pedigree (obviously) and every scout out there drools about his athletic ability behind the plate. However, passed balls and blocking balls have been an early problem and that brings nightmares of Christian Bethancourt back into my mind. Hopefully, Contreras will disprove my insecurities this upcoming season and take that step forward that Bethancourt could never seemingly get past. If so, he’s the number #1 catching prospect for the Braves and could be knocking on the door of number #1 in baseball by the end of 2018.

Stephen: The other reason I think Atlanta will be more inclined to move Jackson to the OF is the emergence of Contreras. The reason I ranked him number one on my personal list is one, there’s zero doubt he stays at catcher, and two, his bat is much more than just an afterthought. Everything he does behind the plate is smooth and will only get smoother to go along with a howitzer hanging off his right shoulder. The bat is quick and produces hard contact consistently, putting up wRC+ of 125, 120, and 121 in his first 3 seasons. He’s going to have to hit the ball in the air more to produce more power but the talent is real and tools are there.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
3. Brett Cumberland

Tommy: Cumberland's season was a study in streaks. As May 17th began, Cumberland was slashing .183/.426/.338 due to 30 BB+HBP in 101 PA. From that date until his promotion to High-A a month later, Cumberland hit .317/.437/.663. A similar story happened after the promotion as he hit .188/.297/.281 in his first 20 games with Florida, but rebounded to hit .314/.430/.407 the rest of the way. All told, Cumberland slashed his way to .266/.409/.445 with Rome and Florida, hitting 27 doubles, 11 home runs, and being hit-by-a-pitch FORTY-ONE times! That's, well, unusual. As pitchers' control improves while he progresses through the system, the HBP numbers seem likely to fall. Frankly, for Cumberland's safety, that might be for the best. Guys in the majors throw hard, Brett. You don't want to get hit that frequently by the ball. Similar to Jackson, there are a lot of issues behind the plate for Cumberland and I'm less positive about his chances of putting it together well enough to play long-term behind the plate than I am Jackson. He's smart, works hard, and will give it everything he has, but a move to first base might be inevitable for Cumberland - though I wouldn't mind being wrong.

Ryan: Short and sweet, in my opinion, Cumberland’s going to have to hit a TON in the Minors to get a shot in the Majors as a catcher (very similar to Gattis). I just don’t see it happening, but like Tommy said, I would love it if it did. He works hard and that is a skillset in itself.

Stephen: I have very little faith Cumberland stays at catcher but the power is real and eventually I think he can be used as a nice piece in a deal with AL club looking for 1B/DH. Like Tommy said, the numbers are artificially inflated by HBP numbers that can’t be counted on as consistent production so he’s going to need to continue to develop at the plate the make up for having very little defensive value.

4. Abrahan Gutierrez

Tommy: Gutierrez may have been a guy that could have benefitted from a year in the Dominican Summer League. Just 17 years-old, he was thrown to the wolves in the Gulf Coast League and faced just one pitcher all season he was older than. Nevertheless, he held his own with a .264/.319/.357 slash over 141 PA with a homer in his final at-bat of the year. Defensively, he might not be Contreras' equal, but might be a tad more athletic behind the plate and did cut down 38% of potential base stealers. Potential-wise, though I love me some Contreras, Gutierrez still has the highest ceiling of any of these catchers on the list from an overall talent perspective.

Ryan: Can’t say much other than I think the bat improves, especially in the power department. At 17, he’s a big dude (6’2, 214 lbs) and already has a healthy K and BB rate so if the power develops, he’ll be another catching stud.

Stephen: Gutierrez is young and tooled up. Wasn’t a great debut season for him but it wasn’t a disaster either. He’ll get plenty of time to develop his skills and the best thing he has going for him is he’s young and tooled up.


Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
5. Lucas Herbert

Tommy: I was in the Outfield Fly Rule facebook group during the 2016 draft and after Cumberland was selected, I believe it was Brent Blackwell who stated if you combined Herbert's defense with Cumberland's bat, you'd have one of the best catching prospects in baseball. A torn meniscus killed Herbert's 2015 season almost before it began, but he was still given an aggressive promotion to Rome with only five plate appearances in rookie ball to open 2016. It didn't go so hot and early returns this season were pretty abysmal as well (.195/.290/.352 over the first nearly 150 PA). He improved after that, hitting .267/.318/.377 after June 4. It's not going to stand out much on this list, but progression was important for the kid with the questionable bat. Defensively, he has a great arm and is smooth behind the plate. Like all young catchers, the footwork and framing need improvement, but he's a leader on-and-off the field with a strong work ethic and a desire to improve. I'm not sure if the whole package will ever come together for him, but he could be a sleeper heading into 2018.

Ryan: While Herbert repeating Low-A in 2017 was a setback in itself, his overall slash-line improved as AVG, OBP, and SLG all went up, while his K% went down. Also, it’s worth noting that catchers tend to take longer to develop offensively, so keep an eye on Herbert. If his OPS gets to the .750ish range in 2018, he could move quickly as his defense is top notch.

Stephen: I’m watching Jeff Mathis play in post-season baseball after finishing his 13th season as a major league catcher. I bring this up because Jeff Mathis has a career wRC+ of 50. FIFTY. Point is, if you can get the defensive part of the position, you can have a legitimate career. This is the reason Lucas might have the highest floor among Braves’ catching prospects despite having probably the lowest ceiling. Dude can flat out play defense.

Did you disagree with our ranking? Let us know in the comments.

Tuesday, September 5, 2017

2017 GCL Braves Review

2017 Minor League Recaps
DSL

On Friday, the Gulf Coast League Braves finished their season with a 7-0 win over the GCL Tigers East. Well, technically, they had another game on the schedule, but the game was canceled due to rain, leaving the GCL Braves at 31-28. It was the first time since 2003 that the GCL Braves finished the regular season over .500, though they did finish at .500 twice. There was some hope for a playoff spot, but a late-season three-game slide (including back-to-back losses to eventual division champ Yankees East) killed the chances that the GCL Braves would go to the playoffs in back-to-back years.

The team was a mix of some of the best talents from last year's July 2 class and some of the Braves' top draft choices from June. Midseason promotions to Danville hurt the lineup especially, but the GCL Braves still had enough firepower to enter the final day of the season with the league's sixth-best offense despite its third-youngest team. Their pitching staff was also especially young with the fourth-youngest group of arms in the league. Despite that, they closed the year with a 3.18 ERA, good for fourth in the league.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
2017 GCL Braves Pitcher of the Year - Miguel Jerez
Similar to Odalvi Javier, one of GCL Braves' top pitchers last year, Jerez isn't going to stand out when you grade his game. His stuff isn't top prospect-worthy and his velocity won't amaze bystanders. However, like Javier, the parts of Jerez's game that stand out is his ability to throw quality strikes and challenge the hitter. He opened the season with four games in the DSL, which is where he pitched last year after signing with the organization in May. By the beginning of the GCL season, he received a promotion and over 15 games, including one start, Jerez showed he could handle baseball in the states. In 39 games, he allowed just six earned runs. Don't worry, I will do the math for you - 1.38 ERA. He also struck out 35 compared to just ten walks. Jerez might not be a top prospect right now - or even a Top 50 prospect - but as long as the lefty continues to contribute, he'll continue to deserve attention.

2017 GCL Braves Player of the Year - Jeffrey Ramos
Though he spent most of August in Danville, Ramos finished with nearly a third of the GCL Braves' home runs (6 of 21) and he did that while at the tender age of 18. In a sign that the Braves liked his maturity, Ramos was signed last July 2 and less than three weeks later, he made his professional debut. He struggled considerably, slashing .230/.283/.333 - though only 13 of his 138 PA came against pitchers he was older than. That last nugget didn't change much this year (194 of 209 PA came against pitchers older than him), but that didn't stop Ramos from exploding onto the scene. Ramos was especially good right before his promotion to Danville. In his final 13 games at the GCL level, he slashed a robust .458/.526/.833, which I'm told is good. He also hit four of his six homers during the run. You can see why the Braves took pity on the Gulf Coast League and promoted him up a level. He wasn't as explosive in Appalachian League, but the outfielder still hit .278 with his seventh homer of the year in 78 PA. Ramos has done nothing but impress and will likely join Rome to open 2018.

Other Names to Remember
Yunior Severino, 2B - One of the top bats from last year's J2 class, Severino was also one of the few prospects who stuck around all season for GCL while others moved on. He slashed .286/.345/.444, which is rather impressive for a 17-year old. He also finished second to Baltimore's Will Robertson in doubles with 17 and it's worth mentioning that Robertson is five years older than Severino. The switch-hitter will have to work on strikeouts, though. Nearly 30% of all of his PA ended in a strikeout, which can be killer on a hitter once he reaches the better secondary pitches found in Double-A. That said, the Braves have to be happy with the production they did receive from the young middle infielder.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Jean Carlos Encarnacion, 3B - Like Ramos, JCE spent most of August in Danville. Before the promotion, he was hitting .350/.374/.563. The only reason I went with Ramos for Player of the Year was that the outfielder showed more power and is slightly younger. Nevertheless, at just 19, JCE's accomplishments cannot be ignored either. JCE added eight doubles, four triples, and a pair of home runs to his stat-line before joining Danville, where he hit .290/.316/.355 with a homer. On defense, JCE has a strong arm but will need to work on accuracy. He's very nimble at third, though, and shows good instincts. At the plate, he has a big frame and should develop more power as he matures.

Livan Soto, SS - All in all, it would be easy to call Soto's first season a disappointment. He hit just .225 with five doubles. But when the season began for him on June 26, he was just four days removed from his 17th birthday. Unsurprisingly, he never faced a pitcher older than him - which makes his 27 walks to 26 strikeouts a bit more impressive. Soto, another seven-digit earner from last year's J2 class, won't mash the ball but is expected to fill out the stats line everywhere else. As he matures (he was listed at 160 pounds), Soto could develop into a second-division starter or supersub with the ability to play a capable shortstop. In addition to shortstop, he also played three games across the bag at second and started one game in center field.

Braulio Vasquez, 3B - One of the few DSL performers last year who flashed a nice hit tool, Vasquez was rolling through the first 31 games of the year with a .310/.402/.380 slash. He was also doing something that is one of my favorite minor league things - more triples than doubles. However, he bottomed-out in his final 16 games with a .192/.311/.231 run. Vasquez is a bit of a fan favorite. He shows a good understanding of the strike zone, a quick first step on the bases, and a good arm at third. In what is rapidly turning into a common line, he was rather young this year at 18. To stay at third, the 6-footer is going to have to flash some pop as nine extra base hits (no homers) in 292 career PA isn't going to cut it.

Abraham Gutierrez, C - For what it's worth, it might be spelled Abrahan. However it's spelled, at just 17, Gutierrez is one of those guys who may have needed a run in the DSL. Nevertheless, there he was, slashing .264/.319/.357 and flashing his plus-plus defensive skills behind the plate in the Gulf Coast League. There's good debate whether he or Danville's Wilson Conthass have the best arm in the system, but regardless of where you fall - hard for me not to side with Conteras - both have the skills to impress at catcher. I can't wait to get to see Gutierrez next year in Danville.

Yoeli Lopez, OF - If Vasquez wasn't your choice for DSL Player of the Year last year, it was probably Lopez, who slashed .240/.382/.357. The Braves hoped for more from Lopez and started him in the DSL to give him a jumpstart, but wherever he was, he was in the midst of a disappointing season. Lopez is a bit undersized, but has a strong body and flashes good pop. He also crowds the plate, inviting a number of pitches to come in on him for a HBP. Still, he doesn't make solid consistent contact and is prone to strikeout binges. If you squint your eyes, you see a Top 50 prospect. I'm waiting for him to open my eyes, though.

Zach Becherer, RHP - A 15th rounder, Becherer was notable for his Wild Thing impression on the mound this year. In 16 games, he walked 17 in 18 innings. He only hit one batter - a small miracle - but uncorked 7 wild pitches. On the bright side, he struck out 24 of the 88 batters he faced. There is some talent here and if he can throw more strikes, the Braves might have something. Like a great movie once said, though - "We better teach this kid some control before he kills somebody."

Troy Bacon, RHP - A fourth rounder out of Santa Fe Community College, Bacon had a solid first summer as a professional with 22 strikeouts in 18.1 innings next to just seven walks. He finished off seven of the 13 games he appeared in and has all the makings of a nice reliever. At 20, though, his production doesn't have the same shine of younger performers who did comparable work as a teenager this year. Bacon might be a guy who will skip Danville to open next year in Rome as a 21-year-old.

Hayden Deal, LHP - Undrafted? No problem. Deal logged 26.2 innings out of the pen for the GCL Braves and showed impressive control with just seven unintentional walks. He also struck out 23. Like with Bacon, let's condition this by mentioning that he's already 22. In his favor was an August promotion to Rome to help out a beleaguered pitching staff. In his one outing with Rome, he went four shutout innings with four strikeouts. He returned to the GCL, but he is on the shortlist for a bump past Danville to Rome for the opening of the 2018 season.

Tanner Allison, LHP - Completing the trifecta with guys who were solid, but too old for the GCL, here is Allison with just two walks in 16.1 ING out of the pen. A 19th-rounder out of THE Western Michigan University, Allison didn't make his debut until mid-July, but once he got out there, he showed he belonged. In addition to the control, he K'd 15 and finished with a 2.20 ERA. He's also 22, but a few months younger than Deal. How the Braves use all of these fringy arms will be interesting to watch next spring.

Yefri Del Rosario, RHP - You want a true prospect arm? Here's Del Rosario, a hard-throwing 17-year-old out of the Dominican Republic. The Braves continue to work with Del Rosario to clean up his mechanics and he caught too much of the strike zone at times this year, but he's a guy with high leverage relief potential or, with the development of a solid off-speed pitch, middle-of-the-rotation projection. He did strike out 29 in 32.1 innings and showed decent control with just ten walks. He'll be one of the arms to watch out for in Danville.

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Juan Contreras, RHP - Like Del Rosario, Contreras was signed in last year's J2 class out of the Dominican Republic. He received the biggest non-hitter signing bonus by the Braves at $1.2M due to his mid-90's heat and a wipeout slider. Now, can he control it? Hopefully, this year will serve as a "huh, that's odd" stat line in his career because he nearly doubled his strikeouts with walks (21 BB to 12 K) over 19.2 innings. Those numbers include an one inning, one K performance in the DSL before joining the Gulf Coast League. He might get a repeat assignment in the GCL depending on how he looks next spring (plus the roster situation in Danville), but don't sleep on Conteras. He could turn into a Top 5 arm in the system within a couple of years.

Freddy Tarnok, RHP - The 80th overall selection in June's draft wasn't given a lot of opportunities to flash his potential as the Braves heavily monitored his pitch count. He never retired more than six batters in any given start so it's hard to really get a read on him. That said, he only walked three in 14 innings, which is a good mark for a high school arm. He also K'd 10 and ended the season with a 2.57 ERA, all decent signs. Next year, we'll learn more about Tarnok, who likely will follow the Kyle Muller-path rather than a Joey Wentz one.

Guillermo Zuniga, RHP - Probably the third-best arm the Braves signed in July of 2016, Zuniga got into the action a lot quicker than his other J2 pitching classmates, appearing in five games in the DSL last year. He struggled notably this season in the GCL and as the season progressed, his control only got worse. He finished the year on a sour note, allowing five runs in 2.2 ING while walking two and hitting two others. It was his second outing of the year that he failed to strikeout a batter and things just never seemed to get going for Zuniga. The Columbian import might repeat the GCL in 2018, but I imagine he'll get pushed up to Danville where he'll look to bounce back.

Quick Stats
31-28, 6th-most in RS, 6th-fewest runs given up

Leaders
RS - Severino, 27
H - Severino, 54
2B - Severino, 17
3B - Encarnacion, 4
HR - Ramos, 6
RBI - Ramos, 30
SB - Vasquez, 12
AVG - Encarnacion, .350
OBP - Zack Soria, .389
SLG - Encarnacion, .563
ISO - Ramos, .231
wOBA - Encarnacion, .433
wRC+ - Encarnacion, 162

(min. 30 ING for rate stats)
W - Troy Conyers & Deyvis Julian, 3
G - Ramon Taveras, 17
GS - Albinson Volquez, 9
SV - Allison, Bacon, Deal, 2
IP - Julian, 40.1
BB - Contreras & Julian, 21
BB% - Taveras, 4% (lowest)
K - Jerez, 35
K% - Jerez, 22.6%
ERA - Jerez, 1.38
FIP - Taveras, 2.22

Friday, August 11, 2017

Braves Catching Turning Into a Strength

In the major leagues, few teams have had a better situation behind the plate than the Braves this season. With Tyler Flowers and Kurt Suzuki, the Braves have a pair of players who have been productive all season long at the plate and in Flowers' case, they have the game's best framer. But both are over 30 and may not around when the Braves next make the playoffs. Today, let's look at the minor league situation and see if the Braves will have replacements.

It wasn't that long ago that the Braves had one catching prospect - Christian Bethancourt. It was easy to look past his flaws because he was really Atlanta's only hope. Similar things happened over the years with Scott Thorman at first base and Kyle Davies at starter. Atlanta didn't have many other options so what options the Braves did have seemed better than they actually were.

While the Braves will still have to wait a few years for their guys to develop, the catcher position is starting to turn from an organizational weakness to one of strength. From trades to the draft to the international market, the Atlanta Braves have acquired a good deal of talented catchers that might usher in the next Javy Lopez or Brian McCann - catchers who were both offensively and, to some degree, defensively able.

Seven catchers made our Top 50 Midseason Prospect list. The seven prospects run the gamut from the strong defender to the strong hitter to the guys who are a bit of both. Moving forward, their development might prompt the Braves to avoid spending richly on a free agent and go with a cheaper, younger, and maybe an even better option. With all that in mind, let's take a look level-by-level.

Gwinnett
Kade Scivicque, #43 in the Midseason Top 50 - Acquired in last summer's Erick Aybar trade with the Tigers, Scivicque had a strong Arizona Fall League showing after the trade, but hasn't been able to continue that success this season. Slashing .261/.314/.345 mostly at Mississippi, Scivicque hasn't really regressed compared to last season, but it's still not close to his AFL numbers. Unfortunately, Scivicque has not graded well defensively this season according to Baseball Prospectus's Advanced Metrics for catchers (-4.6 FRAA). These metrics have their issues, but do help frame the discussion. Scivicque was expected to be a decent little hitter who could improve behind the plate. At this rate, that might be too much to expect. Scivicque made out Top 50 at midseason, but without a strong finish, it could be the final time he holds that distinction. On the plus side, at 24 years-old, he's the youngest catcher to play at Gwinnett with the exception of Bethancourt in at least a part-time role - period. Seriously, since their inaugural season in 2009, the Gwinnett Braves have been a home for the, as Outfield Fly Rule's Brent Blackwell recently put it, Fraternal Order of Replacement Backstops (FORB). These are guys who just travel from one organization to the next getting playing time as a "good handler of young pitchers." Scivicque might not be a great prospect, but he is - at the very least - a prospect.

Mississippi
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Alex Jackson, #11 - The bat is back for Jackson. He hit .272/.333/.502 with Florida while smashing 14 HR. To be fair, his walk and strikeout rates are concerning, but Jackson was drafted for his massive raw power and with already a new career-high in home runs set this year, the Braves are very happy with his development at the plate. Behind it, he's still a work in progress. When he was drafted, Jackson's arm was not the problem and still isn't. He's got a showcase cannon either from behind the plate or in the outfield. The problem was that defensively, his skills were behind the curve. Three years of playing outfield have done little to help with that. I think the Braves will wait until this offseason - at the earliest - before attempting to judge Jackson's defense. If they've seen progression throughout the year, he might continue to wear the tools of ignorance. If not, it might be time to shift him back to the outfield. Regardless, his bat plays no matter where he ultimately lines up.

Joseph Odom - The recent trade of Anthony Recker brought Odom to Gwinnett, but only for a couple of days before he was exchanged with Scivicque. Odom has generally not hit well since he was drafted out of Huntingdon College back in 2013, but he increased his OPS each year to a personal-best .758 last year between Carolina and Mississippi. He doesn't profile as a big prospect, but there is enough pop and plate discipline here that, when combined with solid reports of his defensive capabilities, it makes Odom a potential future member of FORB.

Jonathan Morales - In three years, Morales has gone from interesting prospect to we're-still-hoping to nearly-forgotten-to-the-point-a-blogger-has-to-do-a-last-second-edit-before-publishing-this-article-because-I-forgot-about-him. Got all that? Morales slashed .304/.377/.511 in the Gulf Coast League back in 2015, but his OPS fell a bit over two hundred points with Rome the following year. He wasn't really setting the world on fire in Florida over the first few months this year, but with other higher-rated prospects pushing him, he was moved up the chain. Morales does rank solidly in catching metrics, though he's playing nearly as much first base now. To get back in the Braves' good graces, we're going to need to see some production at the plate soon, though.

Florida
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Brett Cumberland, #26 - Don't look now, but Bcumbo Slice (his twitter handle) is starting to figure it out at Florida. Cumberland got off to a tough start in Rome, going 6-for-45 to begin the year with a .582 OPS. His next 179 PA looked like this - .308/.469/.623 with 9 HR. He was brought up a level last June and again, it was tough sledding early. In his first 59 AB, he had just 10 hits, including one homer. However, he's been on fire since, hitting .377/.482/.478 with seven doubles. It's not a big sample size, but Cumberland's got the skillset to be a big bat. Like Jackson, the question has remained whether he'll remain a catcher with that big bat or be forced to move to another position. Unfortunately, there is a reason to agree with Baseball Prospectus' Steve Givarz when he said of Cumberland, "His glove? Hey he’s a good hitter let’s focus on that!" It's not that he can't stay at catcher, but there's significant doubt whether or not his defense will ultimately take away from his overall value. You don't have to be a superb defender and a good hitter, but the team would like to know that your glove is good enough to not embarrass the team should you stick at the position. Furthermore, there is a reasonable concern that Cumberland's hit-by-pitch numbers are soft. Going back to college, he's always got hit by a healthy number of pitches (38 total this year). However, pitcher's control improves as you climb the minor league ladder. He has just one more unintentional walk this season than he does HBP so it's a big part of his game. What happens if pitchers avoid hitting him?

Tanner Murphy - I was a big fan of Murphy after he hit .242/.361/.389 with Danville in 2014 and earned a lot of praise along the way. However, his numbers have only regressed since. He seemed to turn the corner last season, hitting .297/.411/.337 after the All-Star Break, but he has struggled to duplicate the success since. While his defense remains solid, Murphy is struggling to find at-bats behind higher-rated prospects added to the system since Murphy's selection in 2013. When Bethancourt arrived in the majors, Murphy was the top catching prospect still in the minors. Now, he's not even in the Top 5.

Rome
Lucas Herbert, #36 - The good news is that Herbert's numbers have looked quite a good deal better with Rome than they did in 2016. The bad news is that they still don't look that great. On the year, Kolby Allard's former high school catcher is hitting .258/.317/.390 with 7 HR. A name comes up on his Baseball Prospectus page as a top similarity that might not make Braves' fans happy - Christian Bethancourt in 2012. While no one wants to compare the two, the idea is pretty fair - both had reputations as strong defenders with questionable offensive potential. Now, let's be generous here and remember that Herbert basically lost a season of development after he went down with an injury in his first professional game in the Gulf Coast League in 2015. Let's also recall that at 20 years-old with really one year of experience, one would expect Herbert's 2017 level of production considering his profile coming out of high school. Nevertheless, success has been hard to come by for Herbert to this point. His offensive game is still raw and he could be a sleeper candidate next year if it starts to come together, though

Carlos Martinez - Where did this come from? Martinez hit in the .220's the last two seasons for Danville but has found a way to hit .301 this season. Of course, when your BABIP jumps to .352 when it was never higher than .269, that helps. Martinez also has one of the strangest numbers in the system - an .010 ISO. Of his 31 hits, 30 are singles. That's astounding. It's also reason to believe that Martinez, even at his best, is not a prospect.

Drew Lugbauer, #44 - A recent callup from Danville, Lugbauer has yet to stop hitting. On the year, the former Michigan Wolverine is hitting .272/.374/.551 with nine doubles, a triple, and ten homeruns. All of the four-baggers came with Danville before the promotion to Rome. He's shared an equal amount of time between first base, third base, and catcher and hasn't looked that bad at the corners. His footwork behind the plate is not crisp, though, and he's failed to throw out any of the nine baserunners that have attempted to steal on him. Despite including him in this discussion, it's harder to see him staying behind the plate than either Jackson or Cumberland. He'll have to improve dramatically in that regard to continue to receive regular time as a catcher. The good news is that Lugbauer could present the Braves, if he develops well, with an interesting option that can catch if needed, but also play the corner infield positions. Such a player would have been nice in Atlanta this year with the production the Braves have received from both catchers and the hesitancy to use one or the other in a pinch hitting appearance.

Danville
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William Contreras, #50 - I gave Contreras a #46 ranking in our Midseason Top 50 and Ryan Cothran ranked him two spots higher. I don't know about Ryan or Stephen Tolbert (who had him unranked), but Contreras is primed to be one of my biggest risers when we reconvene for a postseason update. The brother of the Cubs' Wilson, William OPS'd .783 and .721 over two years spent in the DSL and GCL before this year. Lauded for his defense, the bat was considered more of a question. This season, he's had the best year combining both offense and defense of any of the Braves' minor league catchers. Hitting .336/.426/.496 with 3 HR, Contreras has regularly flashed a bat capable of doing big things despite all but 19 of his 141 PA coming against pitchers older than he is. He also has shown a good command of the strikezone, walking four more times than he has struck out. His defense is very fluid behind the plate and only getting better as he refines his footwork and framing. Of the games I've personally seen this season, no catcher has prompted the umpire to receive more complaints from batters upset about strike calls. That tells me that he's capable at framing. But while all of his tools are solid, his biggest weapon is a cannon of an arm that he's not shy about showing at any time. He keeps his infielders on their toes as he's willing to try to pick off runners. He'll even gun it around the horn after a strikeout. I haven't seen a better defensive catcher this season in the Appalachian League and he's still only 19 years-old.

Hagan Owenby - Drafted more for his bat, Owenby played a good deal of first base and DH before Lugbauer's promotion just to get him into action. He's a leader on the field and does a good job working with his pitchers, but his defense isn't very good right now (he has five of Danville's 11 passed balls to this point). At the plate, he has a nice line-drive stroke that might develop more power as he progresses. His performances at first base were pretty ugly and I feel confident that he'll last at catcher, but I don't have the same amount of confidence that the bat will ever be enough to make up for defensive problems behind the plate.

Alan Crowley - Some people are drafted just to be backup catchers in the minors. Crowley is one of those guys. He did ride a high BABIP to a .327 average over 56 PA with Rome last year, but less balls are dropping this year and his .163 average is a result.

GCL
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Abraham Gutierrez, #33 - While Kevin Maitan received most of the coverage during last year's international signing spree by the Braves, Gutierrez is a pretty impressive prospect as well. He jumped to the states to begin this season with the GCL squad and the 17-year-old has hit a respectable .261/.327/.330. He's also thrown out 39% of baserunners, which is no small feat considering the ability for teenage pitchers to hold runners. Gutierrez's scouting report includes amazing athletism behind the plate, a strong arm, and a quick-and-powerful stroke at the plate. The emergence of Contreras this year as the best full-package catching prospect shouldn't negate Gutierrez, who still might have the best potential of any Braves minor league catching prospect.

Ricardo Rodriguez - Acquired in the Christian Bethancourt trade, Rodriguez has been stuck with the Gulf Coast League Braves due to a weak offensive profile and not enough at-bats for all of the Braves catching prospects. Rodriguez is one of the guys who might get more extended look if the Braves opened some playing time by adding a second rookie team in the GCL or adding a short-season A-ball team for their college-age draftees like Owenby or Crowley. Rodriguez, by the way, has a strong glove and flashed a decent enough bat in the Dominican Summer League two years ago. It's been missing-in-action since coming stateside, though.

The Braves have more catchers, but these are some of the bigger names. What would your Top 5 Braves catching prospects look like? And do you think Jackson, Cumberland, and/or Lugbauer will stay at catcher long-term? Let me know in the comments.

Thursday, July 13, 2017

Walk-Off Talk 1.7: Talking About the Midseason Top 50 Prospects

To add context to this year's Midseason Top 50 Prospects, the Walk-Off Walk contributors sat down for an informal discussion about their picks, some of the surprises, and a few of the guys who could rocket up the charts by the end-of-the-year countdown. Tommy Poe, new contributor Stephen Tolbert, and Ryan Cothran are all part of today's Walk-Off Talk.

It might help to have this year's Top 50 open in another window to provide context. If you think we ranked one guy higher than the next, feel free to chime in with a comment.

One last note. All but one of the pictures in this article come via Jeff Morris. Remember to follow him on Twitter for continued superb pictures to attach faces to many of the prospects.

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Kyle Wright
Tommy Poe: Let’s get right into this and start with #1. Officially, Ronald Acuña took home the top spot in our rankings as he was the only player to rank first or second on all three lists. However, he only made #1 on Stephen’s. Ryan had Ozzie Albies as his top guy while I went with Kyle Wright. This trio of players easily pulled away from the field with an average ranking between 1.67 and 2.33. Fourth place averaged 5.00.

My first question is how did you arrive at your choice? And being the nice guy I am, I’ll answer first.

Let me start by saying that each of these incredibly talented players is majorly deserving of such an honor. The sky's the limit for Acuña and that might be selling the guy short. Ozzie Albies is a trade away from taking over second base, a position he may hold for the next decade. Having three legitimate players for an organization’s best prospect is a testament to both how deep this organization is and how off-the-charts talented this trio is. To hype these guys up just a little bit more - all have a legitimate shot to be in the majors by the end of 2018.

But, and forgive me for saying so, I’m the only one who made the Wright choice. (/ducks)

I won’t disagree with you guys that either Acuña or Albies has a higher ceiling than Wright. What I will say is that Wright has the highest floor of any draft choice the Braves have selected since Bob Horner. Now, the Braves have absolutely no reason to rush him to the majors like they once did with Horner, but in my mind, we don’t just reward projection, but the floor a prospect has and especially when that floor is quite elevated. Acuña and Albies should be - and I think will be - excellent players in the major leagues, but they cannot match the likelihood of reaching their potential like Wright.

The man comes into professional baseball with three plus pitches and a strong possibility of taking his weakest pitch, a pretty decent changeup, and transferring it into a plus pitch as well. His simple-and-easy mechanics are repeatable and don’t put undue stress on him. Mark my words, gentlemen - the Braves will look back at the 2017 draft and thank their lucky stars four other teams passed on Wright.

Both of you ranked him third on your lists. Why did your guy - either Albies or Acuña - get your pick as the number one prospect in the system?

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Ronald Acuna
Stephen Tolbert: Hey guys! Glad to be a part of the team.

Let’s start with this; I love Kyle Wright. Getting him at 5 in the draft was thievery. For my money, he’s the best pitching prospect in the system. And in this system, that’s quite an accomplishment. But Wright has two things working against him being at the top.

One, he hasn’t thrown a pitch in pro ball yet and until I at least see some work against other pro’s, I can’t crown him #1. Two, he isn’t Ronald Acuña.

When I think about the number one overall prospect, I think “who can be the best player in the game?” “Who has that type of potential?”  And among the 3 obvious choices, Acuña was the only one who fit that profile. A 19-year-old, legitimate 5-tool player already destroying Double-A is as rare as it is impressive and when you have that guy in your system, he’s #1. Now, he's headed to Triple-A to unseat Albies as the youngest player in the International League.

And if you watched the Futures Game, you saw it all on display. The show he put on in BP had national writers tweeting about it, and then, once the game started, you saw the incredible defensive talent he’s going to be. Coming up as a CF with plus speed, he clearly has the skills to play all 3 OF positions and he showed off his 70-grade arm a few times during the game.

Maybe the most impressive part of the night, though, was the multiple 10+ pitch AB’s he put up against some of the nastiest pitchers in MILB. Taking 98-mph fastballs just off the plate. Spitting on hard-breaking off-speed pitches in 2-strike counts. Basically, he was doing things a 19-year-old shouldn’t do against pitchers that advanced.

Acuña is dynamic, powerful, advanced, and the most gifted overall player to come through this system since Andruw. Truly a rare talent. In my opinion, he’s clearly the #1 prospect in the Braves’ system and eventually, in all of baseball.

But I’m open minded--so Ryan, let’s hear why Ozzie Albies is really the top man in this incredible system.

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Ozzie Albies | Grant McAuley - Follow on Twitter - used with permission
Ryan Cothran: Hey you 2 scoundrels! I'm on Whidbey Island off the coast of Washington and maybe it’s just the island vibes soaking in, but man I love the heck out of Ozzie Albies. He's been my guy for quite a while (not in a Robert Baker sense) and I'm going to show him some love, but first off, it's slanderous for us to talk number 1 Braves prospect and not discuss Kevin Maitan. He’s already wreaking havoc in the GCL and maybe we look at this discussion in a year and think how big of buffoons we were for not including him, and that brings me to my next point and Stephen has already made it: Whether it's the Wright or Wrong call, I cannot give the number 1 title to a guy that hasn't thrown a professional pitch, or in Maitan’s case, limited exposure.  Sorry Kyle, your poise, promise, 3-plus pitches and potential power arm will have to settle for 3 on my rankings.

From there, it was a wash between Acuña and Albies, but what has been occurring in the past month for 20-year old Albies pushed my ranking: he's destroying the ball. Doubles, triples, home runs, he's hitting them and he's doing it from both sides of the plate thanks to Chipper! From the looks of him, I'd guess he's added 20 pounds of muscle in the last year, has put more emphasis on successful steals rather than just running because he's fast, and from what I've read and saw, he's developed some more arm strength. He's sharpened his game all around at the minors highest level and he still can't buy a beer in Georgia. I'm overly excited about what the Braves lineup could feature in 2018 with Albies in it and am very anxious for Brandon Phillips to move on so we can see Ozzie in the show I think he's a seasonal 4 WAR player that could be an all-star 4-5 times in his career.

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Tommy Poe: All valid arguments. I think we all agree that all three guys are going to help shape the future of the Atlanta Braves over the near future. The Top 5 was completed by the aforementioned Maitan at #4 and Kolby Allard at the fifth spot. Allard actually matched his fellow 2015 Draft Class member Mike Soroka for the fifth-best average, but gets the fifth spot due to a tiebreaker which I stole from Outfield Fly Rule’s Andy Harris. In the event of a tie, the player with the highest individual ranking gets the spot.

#7 was an interesting pick. Both Ryan and Stephen had Sean Newcomb around that spot in their rankings, but I went against the grain and stuck with my preseason belief that Sean Newcomb was underrated and put him in the fourth spot.

On Newcomb, since it was my pick, this is probably building on where I had him ranked preseason. At number two. As in, the top non-Dansby Swanson prospect in this system. Nobody agreed with that ranking at the time, but I felt the improvement he made over the second half of 2016 could not only be sustained, but built upon. I was little disappointed with some walk totals with Gwinnett as I felt he was improving in that regard, but I still hold firm in my belief that Newcomb's combination of power, stuff, and pitchability was being underranked by other sources. As such, I rank him as the second-best pitcher in my rankings - a distinction that only changed because of Wright.

His time in the majors has been mostly solid, though he ran into the buzzsaw known as the Astros and was charged with four runs against the Nationals over his last two starts. Nevertheless, he's reached the seven-strikeout plateau in half of his six starts and walked two or less in four of those games. That's something that the Braves can possibly build upon moving forward.

I do understand the criticisms, but control is the thing I'll give a break to when it comes to pitchers. Give me a guy who has issues sometimes finding the plate, but has the weapons to be a #2 starter (possibly #1) if he can find the plate more consistently and I'll be a fan. But the great thing about this organization is whether you want to go with Newcomb, Allard, or Soroka as your second-best pitching prospect in the system - as the three of us did - I believe you can make justifiable arguments about all three.

On the subject of pitchers, Stephen, you had Joey Wentz #17 in your rankings. Ryan and I both had him near the tail end of our Top 10. You were the only one to rank both Touki Toussaint and Kyle Muller ahead of him. Any particular reasoning or just liked him less?

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Stephen Tolbert: Before I jump back in, I do want to make the point that this system is almost unfathomably deep. Guys like Joey Wentz being in the 10-20 range shows how difficult it can to rank all these guys and that often, a guy is where he is because I like a different guy more, not because I like that player less.

Drew Waters
This is what happened with Wentz on my list where he came in at #17. There were a couple players I felt had higher ceilings that I had to put in front of him. A couple of those guys being Drew Waters and Cristian Pache - both tooled out OF who are having early success at their respective levels.

In general, I prefer position players to pitchers because of the severe volatility pitching prospects experience. That means when I get to a group of prospects I feel all around the same level, I lean towards the bats.

Joey is a terrific 3-pitch guy who probably has a bit more pitchability than some of the other guys in the system. But ultimately I see more of a mid to back-end SP as his career path and there were some other guys I project higher.

But being in the top 20 of this system means you're a serious player and very likely have a major league career ahead of you. So Joey at 17 on my list means I still think very highly of him. What surprised me was Ryan's ranking of Touki at #22. That down on him, Ryan, or just high on others?

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Ryan Cothran: I agree that it's pretty easy to rank a top-10 in this organization and have a near consensus 10 guys, whether they're up or down a few spots. After that, it's tricky. One ranking that I had that will likely draw criticisms by many is Touki at 22. Honestly, I just don't get it. He has a curve that’s known as the best pitch in the Braves system, a mid-90s fastball, a working change, and his ERA is pushing 6. Sure, his K-rate is up, his BB-rate down, but he's now in his 4th year in professional ball and the ERA is still going the wrong way. How is this happening? Sure..blame the defense, blame the umps, or just state the obvious and say he's developing, but regardless of the reason, I just cannot look at him and continue to think Starting Pitcher. With that in mind, Geez Louise, he could be a dominant bullpen stud but that just doesn't warrant a near top-10 ranking in the best system in the bigs. For whatever the reasons that Touki and Ricardo Sanchez have to not put it all together, there's guys like Bryse Wilson and Patrick Weigel who clicked and are big jumpers in the org. Hopefully, we will see the same click happen for the aforementioned two.

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Tommy Poe: I definitely do hope we see them start to put it together more as well, Ryan. For now, I want to spend a little time going over our individual rankings and what stands out compared to the rest. At #16, I had Alex Jackson, his lowest ranking. I don't doubt the offense is for real because I was on board with the trade when it happened considering he showed improvement last season. I thought the Mariners were short-sighted in the move. I do wonder if he'll stay behind the plate, though. From people I've talked to (non-scouts, I grant you), they aren't so sure and that's what prompted me to rank him a bit lower. If he's forced back to the outfield, he's still a good prospect - just not as hot. Still, to rank #16th in this system is a pretty nice accomplishment - especially when left for dead by the M's.

I also had Kyle Muller and Bryse Wilson a bit lower than you guys. Similar to why Stephen went with others over Wentz, I felt Muller and Wilson's ceilings are not as high as guys I put ahead of them. Either that rationale or, as was the case with Patrick Weigel and Lucas Sims, I valued their closeness to the majors over Muller and Wilson. I still love both pitchers, though, and look forward to being wrong.

Derian Cruz
I had the lowest rank of Derian Cruz, who I plugged in at #31. I think he's going to hit and flash very good speed, but I am really worried about his defense. From watching him a few times with Danville, he doesn't have soft hands and is frequently forced to rush a throw as a result. My placement is similar to Jackson's in that if he doesn't stay at his current position, his value declines. Right now, I'm looking for reasons to believe he'll stay at shortstop and I have too much concern he'll get shifted to the outfield.

Speaking of speedy guys - this time who already play in the outfield - Randy Ventura had one of the most diverse rankings in the whole thing. I had him #43, Stephen ranked him #34, and Ryan squeezed him into the Top 30 with a #27 placement. And here I was concerned I was ranking him too highly because he has slowed down somewhat as the season has progressed.

I didn't include recent draftees like Freddy Tarnok and Drew Lugbauer on my list. Both were guys who would have showed up if we went beyond Top 50's and because both landed on your lists, each gets a place in the WOW Midseason Top 50. I do like both, but I haven't seen enough of Tarnok to give him a Top 50 spot and Lugbauer might struggle to have a position moving forward. That said, in most systems in the majors, they would be consensus Top 50 prospects - if not Top 30.

I'm glad Jason Hursh made all of our lists, by the way. He's a guy who has shown a lot of improvement over the last year. I'm still not sure he'll be a high-leverage reliever, but there's something here now that I felt was gone when I left him off my preseason Top 50. Really want to see how his career develops moving forward.

Stephen, what are some of your observations about your Top 50 compared to Ryan's and my versions?

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Stephen Tolbert: First, just to respond to one thing you mentioned, I put  A. Jackson as high as I did because I love the bat and the arm. I haven't heard anyone reputable express any optimism that he can stay at catcher but his profile still fits a corner OF spot and man can he hit.

Ok on to mine. Looking at all 3 lists, the first thing that jumps out is Drew Waters. You and Ryan both had Drew 25 while I had him 15. If I'm being 100 percent honest, I almost had him in my top 10. Switch-hitting OF with speed, projectable power and, early on, what seems like a good feel for hitting. Yeah, I'm all aboard. My hot take/bold prediction for next year is once Acuña and Albies graduate, Maitan and Waters will be the 2 best hitting prospects in the system.

Another notable difference I see is you and Ryan both had Ray-Patrick Didder in the mid 30s while he didn't make my top 50. Yeah, I just don't see it with Didder. It's 20 power with a 27% strikeout rate in A ball. He gets by on some fluky HBP numbers that won't hold when he faces pitchers with better control at upper levels. Outside of that, I see an org OF who can run but really not do much else. In a lesser system, he may crack the top 50 for me, but certainly not the best system in baseball.

Alright, Ryan, who were the players you saw differently than Tommy and me?

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Ryan Cothran: Admittedly, I've seen very little of Waters, but have liked what I've seen. For me, it's the unknown that's near impossible to rank but I appreciate the boldness and sure hope your ranking turns to be the more accurate.

As far as my guys, I just cannot get enough of Bryse Wilson. Dude’s fastball stayed 93-96 throughout a complete game shutout and his positive demeanor has been discussed in numerous outlets both inside Braves fam and out. His arsenal is developing, he's striking out a lot of people while walking guys seldom, and he's only 19 years old. While he might have a bit more to learn in comparison to Allard and Soroka, he's right on their heels and I'd expect a promotion before year's end.

Another guy that I likely have an unhealthy fondness of is Randy Ventura. While he's cooled off recently, he can flat out hit. Combine that with above average speed, superior baseball instincts, and a good glove and he's likely a good 4th outfielder. However, that's not how I see him. I think there's some power there and room for growth in that body. I'd keep an eye on him these next few here's to see if 16-20 of those singles become doubles and  6-7 of those doubles and triples become homeruns. If that happens, there could be some serious under the radar hype here.

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Tommy Poe: Finally, I want to go over the five guys you feel might be climbing up the rankings by the end of this season. These can be guys who made your Top 50 or weren't on the list at all. You can also say how you feel they will rise up the WOW list as others come around on your way of thinking.

Bryse Wilson, #17 - I do believe I ranked him lower than you guys because he was ranked really low in my preseason Top 50. He jumped about 20 spots but probably didn't jump enough spots. He'll be an easy Top 20 guy for me by the end of the season and might be in the Top 15.

Drew Waters, #22 - Stephen's aggressive #15th rank might prove to be matched by my own by the end of the year. That's not only a product of my stealing from Stephen :), but the guy's talent is ridiculously high. I'm seeing some people put him as the third-best position prospect in the system behind Acuna and Albies. I'm not there - yet - but he's definitely climbing.


Abraham Gutierrez
Abraham Gutierrez, #34 - I had him ranked the lowest at #39th, but I do believe he'll be in the Top 30 by the end of the season. He seems like the catching prospect with the best chance to not only be a plus at the plate but also behind it.

Drew Lugbauer, #45 - Though I do have concerns about him finding a position, I'm also massively intrigued by the idea of a power-hitting righty-mashing utility player who can cycle from catcher-to-first-to-third. If he can also get some time in left here-and-there, I'm jumping on the hype train big time.

Jean Carlos Encarnacion, UR - First off, Encarnacion is why the Braves need another minor league team or two. I don't know if they truly believe he can't play shortstop anymore or can't find any playing time there for him while playing on a team with Livan Soto and Kevin Maitan. Either way, the current 1B/3B is off to an excellent start in the GCL with six extra-base knocks over his first 51 PA. He was a late signing in the 2015-16 international signing class and I think the Braves found yet another solid bat out of the DR who could rise in a hurry. He's got a big frame to grow in and one that might lead to a good deal of power.

What are some of the guys you think will climb the charts moving forward, Stephen?

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Stephen Tolbert: I like the Juan Carlos Encarnacion pick, Tommy. Here are my top 5 potential climbers:

OF Drew Waters, #22 - (see bold prediction above) Drew was #15 on my personal list but could easily be my top OF prospect in the system once Acuña graduates.

SP Max Fried, #21 - I think Fried has a much pure talent as any arm in the org but his results haven't shown it. If his second half this year matches his second half last year, he could be up in the top 10.

OF Dustin Peterson, #20 - Dustin would've easily made my top 15 coming into the year but the wrist injury in Spring Training has zapped him of his power which is a key part of his development. If he gets that back, he's probably closer to #10 than he is to #20.

C Lucas Herbert, #36 - Lucas has really progressed this year in all aspects of his game. The only reason I didn't have him higher is I just want to see more of it. If he continues at his current pace, he's a top 20 prospect.

OF Braxton Davidson, #38 - I still believe in Braxton. He hits the ball hard, he hits it in the air, and he knows how to take a walk. I love those three things in a prospect. He just needs to put it all together. If he does, the raw talent is there to be big time prospect.

What say you Ryan?

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Ryan Cothran: Man, I hope you're right on Max and D-Pete as they're two guys that are easy to like.

Izzy Wilson, #42 - Seriously talented youngster that could be the next big thing. Has had disciplinary issues in the past but if he can put his focus on baseball, Braves will have something.

Bryse Wilson, #17 - On the heels of all our other young pitchers but maybe not for long. Shelby Miller in the making?

Max Fried, #21 - Bad first half but has tools and talent to be a very good starting pitcher. Think we will see a rise in stock for the 2nd time.

Drew Waters, #22 - Could he be the Braves steal of the draft? Too early to tell, but if he keeps going at current pace, he'll be a serious mover.

Justin Smith, UR - Tommy and I both liked this pick in the draft and Matt Powers of Talking Chop did as well. A JUCO guy with the ability to do everything well. Look for him to adjust then explode.