Should the Braves Target Kimbrel After 2018?

AtlSwag69 (CC BY SA 3.0) via Wikipedia Commons

From the moment Craig Kimbrel was traded to the Padres hours before the 2015 season was to begin, many fans have wondered if the homegrown star closer might one day return to the Braves. As Atlanta has tried to replace Kimbrel with Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, and Arodys Vizcaino, Kimbrel has remained outstanding for first San Diego and now Boston. This season, he's pitching the best baseball of his life with a 12 K/BB ratio and a 1.04 FIP. Could the Braves try to entice their former All-Star to return home to Atlanta?

First off, there's a small problem with even dreaming of Kimbrel returning next year. If the Red Sox had no problem paying Kimbrel $13 million this season, the smart money is on them picking up his option for 2018 which will pay him exactly the same. That would mean that Kimbrel's Age-30 season will be next year as the closer for the Red Sox.

There's the other problem - provided the Red Sox are not able to extend Kimbrel before the end of 2018, he'll hit free agency as the best closer on the market. A few other current closers will be available at the same time, though that's always subject to change as relievers are a fickle breed. Regardless of how many closers are on the market, none are Craig Kimbrel - though Andrew Miller is highly impressive even if he's not being used as a closer and will command a significant salary. Furthermore, when Kimbrel becomes available, he'll be aiming for a contract from a market that last winter gave Aroldis Chapman $86 million over five years and Kenley Jansen $80M. Provided Kimbrel hits the market healthy and pitching well, he'll at least command a similar average annual value. Both Chapman and Jansen were entering their Age-29 seasons while Kimbrel's first season of a new contract will be his Age-31 season. That might make it harder to get a fifth guaranteed season, but an open market might figure in big here and Kimbrel's not only a good get for performance, but for his name.

Back to the Braves. Will they be interested? You bet your sweet behind they will. The bigger question is how interested and maybe the even biggest question is - should they be?

Back to the first question, a lot can change between now-and-then. Atlanta has a vast collection of impressive young arms and one of them could turn into their unquestioned closer before the end of 2018. A.J. Minter's name has often been thrown around as a closer-in-waiting. The team's incumbent closer, Vizcaino, is team-controlled through 2019. The Braves have a plethora of other arms, many of them currently starting, that could also be in the discussion by the end of 2018 should they move to the bullpen. Regardless, John Coppolella has seemed to hint at Kimbrel being someone of interest for the Braves in previous #AskCoppy sessions so that could suggest to some degree how interested Atlanta would be.

Once again, the biggest question - should Atlanta be interested in signing Kimbrel - is much more interesting to me. Mainly because I'm going to say no. It's not because I don't love Kimbrel. I mean, what fan of the Braves doesn't love Kimbrel? The man was an absolute beast in Atlanta and I, like most of Braves Twitter, loved to see people have a conniption over Kimbrel's hat on a nightly basis. And I don't think there's much reason to believe Kimbrel won't continue to be a dominant reliever for the foreseeable future. As I said, relievers are a fickle breed, but when someone does what Kimbrel has for the last seven years, you take notice. Getting to 30 saves once or twice in the majors isn't that much of an accomplishment. From 2007 to 2016, there were 168 instances of pitchers reaching 30 saves or more - which comes out to roughly 17 pitchers a year. That's more than half of the teams in the major leagues each season. Yet, only ten pitchers reached 200 saves - or roughly six-and-a-half years of reaching 30 saves. Just 28 others saved 100 games. Being able to accumulate saves year-after-year is a much rarer thing. Craig Kimbrel has proven that he's not Juan Oviedo or Tom Wilhelmsen. He's on another level and predicting continued success is not only prudent, it's what the projection systems actually say. While Baseball Prospectus long-term forecast is very conservative, it doesn't have Kimbrel reaching a 4.00 DRA until his Age-35 season in 2023. For what it's worth, he's never had a DRA in a full season over 2.21 so I imagine Kimbrel will beat those projections by a considerable amount.

If I love him so much and believe he's going to remain very good, why do I hope the Braves pass on the prospect of bringing back Kimbrel?

It's simple economics. The Braves opened this year with a $122 million payroll. That could climb in 2018, but how much is debatable considering the good, but not great attendance this season in SunTrust Park. Apparently, just having a new park doesn't guarantee sellouts. I don't foresee the Braves cutting salary moving forward, but I also didn't believe their payroll would match some of the big boys in the league when they moved to Cobb County. There often is a bump, but payroll just doesn't skyrocket because of a new park. Unless you're the Marlins and that lasted, oh, a year.

Ignoring Atlanta's commitments for 2019 and moving forward, a closer of Kimbrel's ability would take up between $15M and $18M of payroll - possibly more. For a $130M payroll, that's somewhere in the range of 12% to 14%. That's a lot of money to spend for a player only pitching 60 times a year. Bringing back in those future commitments we just ignored, the Braves will pay, short of a trade, nearly $60M for Matt Kemp, Freddie Freeman, Julio Teheran, and Ender Inciarte in 2019 and adding a big closer's salary will hamstring the entire budget.

And then there's this - is Kimbrel at $15M that much better than Cody Allen, also a free agent in the winter of 2018-19? Or, for that matter, Vizcaino? There's no simple answer to that question. Kimbrel's a better pitcher than Allen and Vizcaino, but finances have to be considered. Think of it this way - would you rather have Vizcaino at $8M and a starting third baseman at a similar rate or would you rather have Kimbrel? With a limitless budget, you might go with Kimbrel and worry about the third baseman later. But the Braves are playing with the salary setting on so that has to be considered.

There's also the argument that paying relievers that much money is foolish in general considering that they are so rarely used properly. The idea is that your closer is your best reliever, but so many teams - even smart ones like the Red Sox - utilize their closers in very restrictive ways. As the Braves found out in the 2013 NLDS, what's the purpose in having a Kimbrel in the bullpen when he's waiting until it's the "right time" to bring him in? Meanwhile, a guy making the major league minimum is blowing the lead just so that you can save your closer until the ninth inning. To get the best value out of a pitcher like Kimbrel, the Braves would need to use their bullpen differently and be willing to surrender save opportunities for higher-leverage situations earlier in the game. At the same time, they would need to justify utilizing a $16M closer in the seventh inning to fans who only value relievers by how many saves they have.

The Braves making Kimbrel a target after 2018 isn't a bad thing. He's an amazing pitcher who could be in line for a handful or more 2 to 4 fWAR seasons after he concludes his current contract - which is no small feat for a reliever. But the finances and the way he'll be used (which will limit his value to the Braves) make signing Kimbrel a bad investment.

A Waiver Trade Match from Heaven

A homecoming for 2 former Orioles.

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Flickr

It was 3-4 days ago that Braves fans received word that Jim Johnson and R.A. Dickey were placed on revocable waivers. While they’re likely not the only players that were placed on revocable waivers, those were the 2 that made it to the mainstream media. My guess, there are at least 3 more guys that the Braves pushed out there but weren’t comfortable in letting the news leak to their fan-base (Matt Kemp, Brandon Phillips, Nick Markakis).

For those not in the know, if a player(s) is claimed on revocable waivers, the 2 teams have 48 hours to work out a deal, and the deal could be as simple as allowing the other team take the full value of the contract(s). If a deal cannot be worked out, then the team that placed said player(s) on revocable waivers pulls the player(s) back and said player(s) have to remain with the team for the rest of the season.

 I’ve been scouring the MLB standings looking for matches in a deal for some of the Braves more expensive veterans. Make no mistake, these are tricky and, for the most part, pipedreams. However, I think I might have stumbled upon a great match. The Orioles, even with a starting pitching ERA that nears 6 and is 29th in all of baseball, remain only 2.5 games out of the Wild Card. The writing’s on the proverbial wall for this team and it may be their last time to contend for the foreseeable future. But nonetheless, they are in the thick of it. While they’re likely not in a position to make big moves as their farm is very weak and they’d need to keep any MLB talent around through this season, they could look for small boosts to aid in their push to Wild Card berth. And it just so happens that the Braves could aid in giving that push.

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Both Jim Johnson and Nick Markakis have a long-running history with the Orioles. Jim played with them from 2006-2013, taking on the full-time closer role in 2012 and had 50 and 51 save seasons in ‘12 and ‘13. Nick Markakis was the beloved right-fielder for the O’s from 2006-2014, doing very much the same as he’s done for the Braves with the exception that he was younger and about 10-15% better in all facets of his game. They were both well-liked in the clubhouse and many faces from their time there are still in-house and would welcome them back. There are tricks to this as both guys are under contract for 2018. While Jim still has some perceived value in a reliever’s role, Markakis is pretty much shot and is playing at a replacement level. The positive is that the guys the O’s are running out there in LF are playing at the level of a leper. Yes...it’s been bad. But the Braves aren’t going to get the Orioles to pay the entire contracts of both players without taking a hit themselves...no sirree. To do a deal like this, the Braves will have to take something back, and that’s where we turn to Ubaldo Jimenez.

Jimenez, who once threw a no-hitter against the Braves when he was slinging for the Rockies, has been downright putrid in an Orioles uniform and has posted a 6.31 ERA this year, is owed 13.5MM for the 2017 season, but is a free agent in 2018. I feel like the Orioles would be happy to wash their hands of Ubaldo and welcome back 2 guys that they know and love.

 So, here’s the deal:
 Braves get Ubaldo Jimenez, Chance Sisco

Orioles get R.A. Dickey, Nick Markakis, Jim Johnson, and 3MM

Considering the Braves would be taking 4.25MM of Ubaldo’s salary and the Orioles would be taking on 7.5MM for 2017, the 3MM is there to offset the cost. In return, the Braves get a prospect that has somewhat fallen from grace that can head to AAA and try to recapture the magic that made him one of the game’s best catching prospects. I’ve not talked about Dickey going until the proposed deal, but he makes a lot of sense for them. There are guys in their rotation that are underachieving and throwing a knuckleballer right in the midst could be the boost that’s needed to make them successful.

This is only 1 of many ways that the Braves could look to in dealing veterans, but if they wait too long or til offseason, the chances of making a deal without eating a HUGE chunk of cash becomes less and less. What say you? Would you alter it? Got another idea? Let’s hear from the peanut gallery!

 Go Braves!

Walk-Off Talk 1.8: The Trading Deadline Extravaganza

(Stephen Tolbert and Ryan Cothran have joined me, Tommy Poe, for a conversation on Braves' targets for the trading deadline.)

Tommy: It's the final weekend before the Non-Waiver Trading Deadline and the Atlanta Braves are in the middle of scores of rumors. Atlanta has already completed two trades as they pull off the shocker and find a new home for the well-liked, well-regarded, well-travelled, well-named Chaz Roe. Oh, and they traded Jaime Garcia, too. But will that be it? Chances are no.

Atlanta is in a weird place where they both want to sell off assets they no longer need or want and also acquire assets that they can play a role for next year's club and beyond. It builds on last year's efforts in which guys like Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur were shipped out but Matt Kemp was acquired (albeit, in large part to get rid of He Who Shall Not Be Named).

That is why the Braves have both been shopping deals for Brandon Phillips and trying to acquire a big name starter - such as Sonny Gray.

On Tuesday, you talked about Gray, Stephen. The price tag for such a pitcher is stiff, but the reward is potentially great as well. After an injury-filled down year in 2016, Gray's numbers have reverted back to their 2014-15 levels in which Gray posted a combined 6.8 fWAR during his first two full seasons in the majors. In his Age-27 season, Gray has two more years of arbitration left and if he continues to pitch at his current level, could be peaking at the right time.

Gray has his issues - which many fans are quick to point out. He's a groundball pitcher who relies a good deal on his defense making plays. That said, he is carrying a career-high 23.5% strikeout rate into action Wednesday so it's not like he can't get strikeouts. A big reason for his increased strikeout rate is a better feel for his changeup, which has made it more effective. Others would point out that he's a health risk. A pair of unrelated injuries put him on the shelf twice last season while a lat strain suffered in spring cost him the first month of action this season. It's worth mentioning that he threw 427 combined innings in 2014-15 so he's flashed durability in the majors.

Could Newcomb get a new rotation mate in Sonny Gray? | Chris Blessing

Like most potential trade targets for the Braves, the fit for this version of the Braves is a clear upgrade. The Braves' rotation has looked improved after the release of Bartolo Colon and improvement of R.A. Dickey, but it remains one of the weakest collection of starters in baseball and that was before you remove Garcia from the mix. Adding Gray won't fix all of those problems, but adding him means Mike Foltynewicz isn't the team ace. It means Julio Teheran's struggles might be easier to deal with. It means Sean Newcomb's emergence over the final two months is a little less important. Those three are controlled through 2019, the earliest Gray would hit free agency.

But the biggest issue in regards to Gray is the price tag - and I'm not talking salary. The first player the A's have apparently asked about was Ronald Acuna. Naturally, that is a non-starter. Ozzie Albies is logically the next player the A's might be interested in - though a package of Cristian Pache and pitching arms (along with a closer offensive prospect like Dustin Peterson) might be enough to convince Billy Beane.

Of course, that's a best-cases scenario and those don't develop often. The Braves' interest in Gray is at least matched or exceeded by other clubs, including the Yankees who are considering a blockbuster deal for both Gray and Yonder Alonso. Such interest inflates the price for Gray even more.

I'm going to throw out my thinking and see if it matches up with you two. Stephen, I think we're on the same side of things actually. Is Gray worth a top package? In this market? Abso-freaking-lutely. But is he worth a top package of Braves prospects to the Braves? Here is where I start to pull away. If the Braves can discuss an Albies/Acuna-less package of players and the A's sign off on it, I'm game. Let's make a deal. But if the A's hold out - and they probably should - for Albies or Acuna, I'm walking.

So, to you two, what are the chances the A's do go for a package without Albies or Acuna? Should Atlanta at least consider a swap even if Albies is in it? And more generally, do you believe Gray is "that guy?" Is he a pitcher worthy of such a price tag in the first place - whether or not you're willing to pay it withstanding?

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Stephen: Hello boys. Always enjoy these. Yeah so obviously I just wrote about this so my thoughts are pretty well known.

From the A’s point of view, they see the package the White Sox just pulled in for Jose Quintana, which included one of the best prospects in all of baseball, and they want something similar, which is fair. There was a report out yesterday they were interested in Ronald Acuña which is close to water being wet territory in terms of newsworthiness but they have every right to hope for the moon. And, honestly, given their financial disadvantage, it would be committing malpractice if they didn't at least ask. But asking doesn't mean getting and there's zero chance Atlanta gives up any of their top prospects for a guy who's only under control for 2 more years after 2017.

And it's that last part that really is the crux of the issue with Gray. I think he's a fantastic pitcher and I may even be higher on him than most but, as I wrote yesterday, while matching up talent is important, matching up timing is equally important. Atlanta simply isn't ready to maximize a guy like Gray with multiple playoff berths because they simply aren't there yet in their timeline.

I really like Sonny Gray and there will come a point where acquiring a guy like him is exactly what Atlanta needs to do. They just haven't reached that point yet.

Ok Ryan, how do you see the Sonny Gray situation?

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Ryan: If there was some way for the Braves to pull off a quantity over quality, sending the A’s 4-5 mid-level prospects that don’t seem to factor into the Braves future plans, then I’m all-in. Unfortunately, this is not going to be the scenario and Sonny Gray will likely land two blue-chippers and a few throw-ins. For me, that’s a kicking and screaming NO!  If he was under control for four years and hadn’t had injury problems or lackluster results last year, I’d be down. But make no mistake, this is a buy-high and he’s THE guy right now that many teams want and Braves just aren’t in a position to be selling their farm yet for 2.5 years of control. John Hart said this after the Braves went and met with Jon Lester prior to his free agency: “He’s the right guy at the wrong time”.

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Stephen: So it looks like we all agree trading for Sonny Gray wouldn't be a wise decision given where the team currently is and what the price reportedly is so let's move to the next guy.

Fulmer | Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Our next candidate certainly isn't one we have to worry about how long the team controls him. Michael Fulmer is having a really good sophomore year for the Detroit Tigers, who appear to be on the verge of their own rebuild. Detroit has spent the last decade paying for the present by mortgaging their future and it looks like that bill is about to come due. Massive long term contract to aging players have left the Tigers without many actual trade chips which is why they may consider moving Fulmer for the right price.

One thing that makes him so attractive as a trade piece is his age, and therefore his salary. Fulmer is 24 and in his second year in the majors meaning he has 4 years of team control at a highly affordable rate.

Another positive for Fulmer is how he's able to consistently keep the ball on the ground. His ground ball rate sits at 50%, well above league average, which obviously means he's also able to get the ball in the ballpark. In a perfect world, I'd like to see him miss a few more bats but you can't have everything.

All of this, of course, means he wouldn't come cheap in a trade and if Atlanta really wanted him, it'd take a decent size chunk out of their farm system.

The other possibility from Detroit would be taking on Justin Verlander and some of his mega deal. Verlander is getting paid $28M a year for the 2018 and 2019 seasons before becoming a free agent again so Detroit would definitely have to take on a chunk of that just to give him away. If they want anything real in return, they'd have to take even bigger of chunk.

The primary reason for that is Verlander really isn't that great anymore. He has league average ERA, league average FIP, league average strikeout rates...you get it. He's just an average pitcher now and while that has value, it doesn't have 28M/year in value.

So what you two think of the Detroit guys? Anything interesting there or hard pass? Ryan, we’ll start with you
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Ryan: When discussing Fulmer, not much is different from my opinion on Gray, and that is the Braves just aren't in a position to do a move like this quite yet. If the next wave of pitchers and position players come up (Acuna, Albies, Soroka, Allard,etc.) and show they can be big league commodities, then a surplus develops and it's easier to bite a chunk out of the farm. So, for me, I'm not ready to see a trade that costs the Braves 3-4 top 10 prospects.

Now Verlander? You're getting into my territory. Regardless of what the Tigers say, a Verlander trade will not bring a big haul back to Detroit. This is where the Braves could land a dependable starter at a discounted prospect price and, hopefully, a discounted actual price. However, in regards to this kind of move, Verlander is down my list 2-3 spots.

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Tommy: Essentially, we are hoping to be on the other side of a Melvin Upton/Craig Kimbrel exchange here. Pay less in terms of prospects because you are taking on an overpriced asset that could make it more difficult to rebuild. It worked out for the Padres as when they used the desired commodity (Kimbrel) in another trade, they got much better value than they surrendered in the first place.

The problem I see is will Verlander agree to a trade to a team that isn’t yet in contention? He carries a full no-trade protection - something Detroit hands out like candy - and can Atlanta even convince him to come south even if they wanted him to?

Separating Fullmer from Verlander might be not only more preferable for the Braves, but a necessity if Verlander declines to go with Fullmer. Another pathway isn’t as dramatic but still, would give the Tigers a little financial freedom. Taking back Ian Kinsler in the trade would save the Tigers roughly $9-$10M when you factor in Kinsler’s buyout for 2018. Atlanta could try to flip Kinsler, of course. They could also take back Anibal Sanchez, who is owed around $12-$13M (another $5 buyout for next year included).

Again, these are not significant salaries to tie in with Fullmer, but other assets like Justin Upton and Jordan Zimmermann have some degree of no-trade protection which could make it difficult to trade for their contracts - which is essentially what we are talking about here.

Say Verlander does agree. There might be a way to keep the Tigers from not having to pay the Braves money to pay off some of the right-hander’s salary. The Braves could opt to send Matt Kemp to the Tigers. There are a couple of problems with such a proposal. One, the deal doesn't provide enough financial relief. Kemp's salary is about $13M less over the next two seasons than Verlander. Detroit might want a little more financial freedom and the Braves could offer to add an additional $3.5M the next two years to give the Tigers at least $20 extra million in financial relief over the next two seasons - plus whatever prospects.

As for the prospects, Atlanta can use their wealth of starting pitching plus some positional prospects to try to smooth over a deal. Say something along the lines of Aaron Blair, Kolby Allard, Lucas Sims, Travis Demeritte, Kemp, and $7M for Verlander and Fullmer. I’d also see what it might take to add Justin Wilson to the trade and hope the presence of Verlander might keep Wilson’s price tag from not being as significant as this trading market demands for good relievers.

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Ryan: Well that was more like it! All different takes. I like it! I just feel with Fulmer’s asking price and Verlander’s expensive contract and a no-trade clause, we just typed a whole lot for nothing.  But if we really want to start typing a bunch of nothing, let’s talk about Christian Yelich and Giancarlo Stanton!

This is a tall-tale in the mold of David vs. Goliath, but we aren’t referring to physical size, but contract size.  Let’s look at their contracts:

Yelich | hueytaxi on Flickr[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Yelich: Under team control through 2022 on a team friendly deal that would max out at a total of 58.25MM for ‘18-’22 (5 years).

Stanton: Lifetime contract, bajillion dollars. I mean, heck. That’s what it seems like. Seriously, the contract runs through 2028 (he’d be 39) and it pays him anywhere between 25 and 32MM annually.

So, why are we discussing these 2 bozos? Well, I think it has a lot to do with a ridiculous tweet that a bigger bozo (me) sent out earlier this week. Most met this tweet with outrage and rightfully so as taking on a 300MM contract is absurd, right? Well, maybe it is but dig a bit deeper.  If the Braves could package Nick Markakis and Matt Kemp, who most consider dead money at this time, you’re essentially getting Stanton for $240MM. Well...that’s still crazy. But it did make me think and swing my head to the left...that is left field and there I found Christian Yelich. This dude has a pretty tasty contract, plays fair defense, is only 25, and can hit. Not only can he hit, but he’s a left-handed hitter which looks as though will play well at Suntrust Park. But he’ll be expensive...like 2-3 top 10 prospects expensive. While it’d be nice to have both of these guys in a Braves uniform, let’s be realistic for a moment:

There’s minuscule chance a mid-market team takes on Giancarlo’s absurd contract, especially one as frugal as the Braves.

Yelich is a good player, but as stated above, the price at this point just doesn’t make sense for the team. The next wave needs to hit and Braves need to see what sticks before really addressing any areas of need and trading away assets. There will be some traded, but I don’t think trading now is the answer.

Tommy, am I wrong? I prefer to be right but I can accept defeat as well…

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Tommy: For a change, I’m kind of hoping you aren’t wrong.

I love Christian Yelich. Absolutely love the guy. Even though his numbers are a little down compared to last year, he's one of the quiet superstars in the game and a big-time performer in the lineup.

With Giancarlo, it's hard not to love his power. 240 homers in less than a thousand games? Yes, please. He has a good idea of the strike-zone and gives his team impact potential with each plate appearance.

But unlike Yelich, his contract is just all kinds of ugly for the franchise. Especially for a guy who has avoided time on the DL just once in his seven full-time seasons. So, that brings me back to Yelich and I have to admit it's difficult not to get a little nutty here. Can you imagine an outfield of Yelich, Ender Inciarte, and Ronald Acuna? It's an embarrassment of riches. Oh, and he has four more years under his contract for a very affordable deal as you brought up.

Yelich is exactly the kind of expensive, controllable player the Braves are seeking. He’s signed long-term to a contract that suits the team very well. Here’s the “but” because we knew it was coming. But this only works if the Marlins are willing to take pitching and a lot of it. Luckily, the Marlins desperately need that particular commodity. The unfortunate death of Jose Fernandez left them with a massive hole in their rotation that is currently relying on Dan Straily and Edinson Volquez to fill in the void. Further, while the Marlins have some decent arms in the minors, what they don't have is a Kolby Allard, or a Mike Soroka, or even a Luiz Gohara. The farm system has been wrecked in recent years and currently has no one in the MLB.com Top 100.

Sometimes, you have to make a tough choice to give up on a young-and-exciting talent to try to gobble up more of those type of players. The Braves lived that rebuild. It might be time for Miami to do the same and if Yelich hits the trade market, I imagine the Braves would be one team that will step up to the table and play some "Let's Make a Deal."

As for Stanton...he can continue to enjoy Miami during a rebuild.

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Stephen: So this is interesting and a place where I probably differ than most.

First of all Ryan is correct, the likelihood of either of these guys being moved is slim at best considering the team is currently in the process of being sold. Moves like this are usually made by the new owners, not the old ones, so while Miami eventually will have to make some tough decisions on these guys, it probably won't happen until after they're sold.

But if we only talked about trades that are likely to happen, we'd never talk about trades and where's the fun in that?

Yelich is a fascinating player to me because everything about him screams superstar except one really weird thing. Since he debuted in 2013, no player in the NL has hit the ball on the ground more than Christian Yelich. He's at almost 60% for his career and that was shocking to me considering the numbers he's put up. You add that to the meh offensive year he's having this year (113 wRC+ GB% at 57%) and the exorbitant cost it would take to acquire him and I don't know, I pause.

It's silly because he really is a great player but he just has to do so much damage on the ball he doesn't hit on the ground, it just gives him a smaller margin of error than most. I know I'm stupid.

With Stanton, normally I prefer the route of taking on money to acquire talent instead of giving up prospects. Money replenishes at a quicker rate than talent does. But this is a whole new level of money. Stanton is still owed 295M over the next 10 years and that much money combined with his injury history would give me cold sweats at night as a GM. The talent is unprecedented but the value is the combination of talent and cost and right now, Stanton’s cost speaks louder than his talent. Unless Miami is willing to eat significant dollars, it's a hard pass for me.

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Tommy: All of that is fair, Stephen. Moving on from guys that are getting a lot of trade rumors play, I want to move onto the guy we think is the best fit for what the Braves might need. And with that in my mind, the Braves should go after Marcus Stroman.

Stroman | Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Before I address the mega elephant in the room, Stroman is in his fourth year since coming up in 2014. There's a missed campaign in 2015 where he made just four starts, but other than that, he's been a durable workhorse. The only other time he missed any notable time was because of a suspension for methylhexaneamine, a common “stimulant found in over-the-counter dietary supplements" back in 2012. And that injury I mentioned? That was knee surgery - not an arm issue.

Since 2014, Stroman ranks in the Top 30 in both FIP and xFIP. He has the second-best groundball rate in that time frame to Dallas Kuechel, who is a very similar pitcher. He does everything you are looking for and he's only improving as he's getting more whiffs than ever. His sinker is one of the best versions of that pitch and he uses it half of the time - without suffering as a result.

Stroman is also one of baseball's top showman - a reason to put butts in the stands and enjoy one of the game's very best practicing his craft. He even hit his first homerun this year in interleague action. He should be in the NL where the antiquated idea of a pitcher hitting is still in vogue.

But there's a catch. He won't come cheap and I don't just mean the package the Braves will have to surrender. As a Super 2 arbitration-eligible player, Stroman already has reached the $3.4M plateau in salary after beating the Jays in arbitration last spring. That means big money for both 2019 and 2020 as he goes through a third and fourth year of arbitration if he's not signed to a long-term deal beforehand.

And then there's the price in prospects that make this deal a little pie-in-the-sky. Okay, "little" is an understatement. The Blue Jays apparently aren't interested in dealing their controllable assets. I wouldn't be either, but the Jays aren't exactly getting younger. The Braves could try a similar approach to the Fullmer one we discussed and take back salary to make the deal more attractive. J.A. Happ is due $13M next year and the Jays could jumpstart a quick rebuild centered around their influx of young-and-talented position prospects and the pitching prospects the Braves and others might surrender for their assets.

The price would be significant. Likely, it would be too much to bear. But if there is some room to work here, Stroman would be the perfect addition at the perfect time for the right team.

Stephen, who is your guy that you think will fit perfectly for the Braves?

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Stephen: So my guy is a little out of nowhere and I'm not sure how many people have ever actually heard of him but I want 3B Yandy Diaz of the Cleveland Indians.

Yandy has been on my radar for a couple years now as it's become clear that 3B was a bit of an organizational hole. He got a cup of coffee in the majors earlier this year but he's basically a prospect at this point. Of course when I see that, what I see is 5 or 6 years of team control at an affordable rate so that's a plus for me.

As far as why Yandy, all you have to do look at numbers he's put up in the upper minors the last few years:

• 2015 (AA): 143 wRC+
• 2016 (AA): 144 wRC+
• 2016 (AAA): 149 wRC+
• 2017 (AAA): 151 wRC+

And it's not just the production, but the underlying skill:

• 2015 (AA) BB% 14%  K% 11%
• 2016 (AA) BB% 22%  K% 14%
• 2016 (AAA) BB% 11%  K% 15%
• 2017 (AAA) BB% 15%  K% 15%

That kind of production matched with that kind of discipline is rare and I'd love Atlanta to find a way to get him. Cleveland is a win now team with an All-Star 3B in Jose Ramirez so it's not crazy think Diaz could be had if Atlanta could send something their way to help their 2017 club. Their catchers and 2B have been pretty terrible this year so maybe some combination of Phillips and Suzuki plus maybe a reliever? I don't know.

All I know is Yandy is exactly the type of prospect I think gets undervalued in today's game. His consistent production against the highest levels of minor league baseball combined with his rare level of plate discipline make him one of my favorite potential targets and one I hope Atlanta takes a serious look at.

Ok Ryan, who's the guy you hope the Braves make a run at?

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Ryan: Well...it’s no secret that my buy-low guy was Jeff Samardzija but that has been stomped and burned as we found out a few days back that the Braves are not one of the teams that he’d accept a trade to...disheartening. There were some wrinkles when acquiring The Shark but combine his peripherals with a team that (hopefully) features the best framing catching combo in the league (and yes, this is my plug to extend Suzuki for another year) and I think we could have had a K-machine that sports a mid-3 ERA.  In addition to that thought, I think the Giants would have to send over a good chunk of cash to get any deal done. Yet, once again I typed a paragraph for no reason...so I’ll move on now.

Sometimes matchups with teams seem like no-brainers and as an armchair GM, it’s easy to harp on these ideas.  However, there are some cases where teams are making pushes and everything just seems to come together.  The Braves just so happen to have Julio Teheran, Matt Adams, and Brandon Phillips, all which seem to be available in some sort of capacity. Also, there just so happens to be a team that has been shuffling the deck all season at 1st base that has also suffered late injuries to their starting 2nd baseman AND a starting pitcher in the rotation. How about we take a look at ravaging a system one more time before this rebuild is complete? So I don’t have a “guy” per se, rather guys. Making this kind of deal really puts me out of my comfort zone, but I’m looking at at least 3 top-10 prospects.  So here’s where my idea gets interesting.  Yankees have 3 great players on the shelf for quite a while in Michael Pineda, Dustin Fowler, and Gleyber Torres. While I don’t think they’d sell-low on all of these guys,  2 of the 3 could be in play. It’s a risk…a risk that I’ve warned about in the past, but I’m willing to roll the dice one more time. My proposed deal:

Yankees get Julio Teheran, Matt Adams, Brandon Phillips
Braves get Chase Headley, Michael Pineda, Dustin Fowler,  Miguel Andujar, and 2 lower level prospects.

A future 3B, a 2018 fill-in 3B (or offseason trade piece), a future star RFer, and a roll of the dice stud SP.

Who’s with me?  Likely not Yankees fans!  Go Braves!

Time to Move Brandon Phillips

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

John Coppolella should trade Brandon Phillips.

Sure, we can talk into lengths (and have) about the limitations with trading Phillips. To sum up, the market is likely small for a second baseman who can't play anywhere else and has the ability to block trades to a dozen other teams. Such a small market makes Phillips a guy who won't bring much in a trade. Even though he's dirt cheap (less than a half-a-million for the rest of the year) and could be in line for a 2 fWAR season, without many teams in the hunt, Phillips just isn't going to attract the attention Coppolella would like. Coppy is not the type of general manager to pull the trigger on a trade just to trade someone. He's all about maximizing value and giving away Phillips for a C-grade prospect is not what he usually goes for.

But the Braves aren't acquiring a prospect for Phillips if they do trade the veteran. Sure, in the basic sense, they are getting a player or two for Phillips, but what they are truly acquiring is a roster spot and a spot in the lineup. What the Braves are trading for is time for Ozzie Albies, who many, myself included, feel is ready for a promotion to the major leagues. If it weren't for the presence of Albies, I wouldn't be promoting a trade of Phillips. While I wouldn't have minded one, considering that I don't think the market will develop for him in a significant way, I would also be okay with keeping him.

With Albies in the mix, though, I want Phillips traded. It has nothing to do with the veteran and everything to do with beginning the Albies era. Consider this: Albies is now hitting .292/.336/.451 over 80 games. He batted a measly .248/.307/.351 at Gwinnett during a 56-game run there last year so he's improved upon those numbers notably. Also, those full-season numbers don't tell you how Albies has played recently. From May 8 to July 9, Albies has slashed .318/.368/.495 with nine doubles, six triples, six home runs, and is successful in all but one of his 13 stolen base attempts. Feel free to troll, "is that good?"

Not only is he showing a lot of new power with a career-high of seven home runs, four of them have come against left-hand pitching and his overall marks against southpaws continue to improve - a product of working with a pretty good switch-hitter in his own right, Chipper Jones. Oh, and when I said he's already set a career-high in homers, it's worth remembering that he's also matched his career total entering the season. If you are looking for a word to describe Albies' season to this point, it's the same word my three-year-old's preschool teacher used to describe my Riley monster - "blossoming."

Remember that Albies is only 20 years-old. That is seven years younger than the average International League player. For the second consecutive year, he's the youngest player in the league and over the last two months, he's finding it. He's caught up - a lot quicker than everyone else.

You might contend that trading Brandon Phillips hurts the Braves' chances of possibly sneaking into a playoff spot. Of course, as of right now, there's about a 2.4% chance of the Braves making the playoffs, but you Lloyd Christmases out there only read "chance" out of that sentence, didn't you? Let me put it in a way that might rest your fears of missing out on the chance to get to the playoffs if Atlanta trades Phillips - they may not miss a beat. Again, as impressive as Phillips has been, he still ranks 16th in fWAR among 2B this year. While he's been a surprise of sorts, he's not irreplaceable.

Grant McAuley - Follow on Twitter - used with permission

Even if you ignore that Phillips hasn't established a hard-to-duplicate pace and that, at 36, a hot summer in Atlanta might get to him, there is another reason to believe trading Phillips won't hurt. Albies could be just as valuable during the second half of the season as Phillips would be. Let me start by saying Phillips is a slightly below-average defender right now. He once was elite, but over the last three years, time has caught with him. He carries a -0.1 UZR/150, -5 rPM, and -4 DRS into the break. Albies is carrying some negative defensive grades of his own according to Clay Davenport's defensive metrics but routinely has been above-average at both shortstop and second base over his career. Heading into this season, he made MLB.com Pipeline's All-Defensive Team at second base. I am confident he would outproduce Phillips defensively.

Base-running wise could be a bit of a wash. Albies, being young and inexperienced, would likely have a few TOOTBLANs here-and-there, but Phillips runs into some crazy-dumb mistakes as well. As far as base stealing, Albies is easily the bigger threat there. He's swiped 21-of-23 attempts this season while Phillips is 7-for-11. While Albies may struggle as he learns to read new pitchers and deal with the best catchers in the world, he's definitely the better bet to be a weapon on the basepaths than Phillips at this point.

At the plate, Phillips may have the edge, but don't be so sure about that. While you can expect Albies to struggle as he adjusts - at the age of 20 - to major league pitchers and advanced scouting, Phillips' modest offensive numbers could still be reached considering Albies' improving offensive game. Do I think Albies could post a 94 wRC+ in the majors this season as Phillips so far has done? Absolutely.

Let's also not ignore that the Braves will have backup options should Albies prove not to be ready for a full-time gig in the majors. Johan Camargo is currently a man without a position short of stealing playing time from Dansby Swanson. He could move over to second base and help out over there. In addition, the Braves have Sean Rodriguez on his way back. They could also give Micah Johnson some time at second base, a position he has a lot of experience playing. These options are not ideal. I would prefer Ozzie Albies succeeding and sticking in the lineup. However, the Braves have other players they can go to should Albies need to head back down. In addition, you could make a compelling argument that a Camargo/Rodriguez timeshare would be just as good as Phillips.

Further, to circle back to the whole idea of hurting the current squad, allow me to present the 1997 Chicago White Sox. On July 31 of that year, they were 53-53 and three games back in the AL Central. But they saw the writing on the wall. They knew they were not a good team and rather than keep the pieces together for one little run, they traded off pending free agents Wilson Alvarez, Danny Darwin, and Roberto Hernandez in a deal with the Giants. Combined, Alvarez and Darwin started 28 games and Hernandez saved 27 prior to the trade. The White Sox received a package of six players in the deal, including Keith Foulke and Bob Howry - players that would help shape the team's next five years. The trade also opened the door for youngsters like Scott Eyre and Mike Sirotka to get an extended look. After the trade, the White Sox went 27-28. They were effectively the same team before and after the trade.

I started this article with a simple statement. Brandon Phillips should be traded. As I said, it has precious little to do with Phillips and everything to do with Albies. The time is now for another step in the rebuild to be crossed. It's time for the Ozzie Albies era to begin.

Walk-Off Talk 1.6: Finding A Partner (Part 3) - The Matt Adams Conundrum

(Previously...on Walk-Off Talk...Ryan and I tried to find some interested teams for the two most valuable soon-to-be free agents on the Braves, Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips. Next, we looked at one-year assets like Jason Motte and Kurt Suzuki and tried to locate interested parties. Today, we focus completely on one player and his effect on the Braves' franchise player. Events occur in real time.) 

Ryan,

So, here we go. Matt Adams. Oh, boy.

When we mapped out this series, I thought Big City would need his own Big Post because of all the potential teams that theoretically would have an interest in him. However, over the last week, we have seen something intriguing happen. Freddie Freeman - whose injury prompted the Adams deal in the first place - volunteered to move over to third base to allow the Braves to have a starting nine that includes both Adams and Freeman in it.

First, we need to address that before even talking about potential partners for Adams in a deal. On Twitter, you have indicated a willingness to see this move out in a serious, thoughtful manner. On the other hand, yours truly made a joke about how I used John Kruk at shortstop in RBI Baseball and it’s one of my most popular tweets ever. Twitter’s a weird place sometimes.

My general thoughts: Third base has been a dumpster fire for the Braves since the retirement of Chipper Jones. Since the old man last played for the Braves, Braves third basemen have been worth 5.9 fWAR. That ranks 26th of 30 teams. Only three teams have seen their third basemen hit fewer home runs. And imagine how worse things would look without Chris Johnson's God of BABIP-infused 2.5 fWAR season in 2013.

Freddie Freeman's bat certainly would look good at third base. Having both Freeman and Adams in the lineup makes the Braves all the more dangerous provided Adams continues to play out of his mind. Clearly, the Braves can't bench Adams right now to bring back Freeman. It's like a football team benching the hot hand at running back because their former starter has returned. You find a way to utilize both while they are on the same team.

On the other hand - how much defensive value will you sacrifice to get both of these bats in the lineup? Freeman is a better fielder at first base than Adams, but ignoring that, Freeman hasn't played third base in a decade. When the Tigers asked Miguel Cabrera to play third base, at least he had a recent history of playing the position. Third base is not an easy position to play. Chipper Jones was a shortstop who converted to third base and at his very best, he was merely average. Freeman's bat will make up for some of the defensive issues he'll have at the position, but is it a good idea to sacrifice some of the value your best player provides by shifting him to a position he's unlikely to be able to play at a reasonable level - especially when considering that the Braves starting staff relies so heavily on their defense as they are worst at striking out batters this season? I’m not even going to get into the very real possibility of an increased likelihood of injury with Freeman playing a position he’s not comfortable with.

I get the "what do we have to lose?" crowd. I do. But I don't find that argument particularly compelling. Try to convince me otherwise. 

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Tommy,

I’m not going to try to convince anyone that this is a good idea. In fact, if the Braves can still get a stud prospect for Matt Adams, I’m okay with that. But if they don’t go the trade route and they want to explore the idea of moving Freddie to 3rd base, I’d also be down for the trial.

Look, by no means do I think he’s going to be a good defender at 3rd. He lacks range, that’s been well-documented in his years at first base. However, 3B isn’t as much about range as it is reaction, and he has good hands and a good arm but coming in on the ball will be difficult. I think it’s about 90% likely he’d be a below-average defender there if he stayed at 3B beyond 2017. He could be as bad as Miguel Cabrera was in 2013, in which he spent over 1200 innings at the hot corner and “collected” -18 Defensive Runs Saved.

But want to know something else? Miguel was out of his mind good at the plate that year and even his abysmal defense couldn’t hold him back from a 7.5 fWAR year. Although impressive, Miguel’s 2013 still doesn’t match the production of what Freeman was doing before the injury.

But the 10% of this idea is what really intrigues me the most. What if Freddie Freeman can be a defensively average 3rd baseman for this year...and even beyond? What if Matt Adams and his new physique can continue to crush in an Atlanta uniform and decided to stick around for a few years? Can you imagine a couple of LH power hitters at infield corners for the Braves for 4-5 years, popping 40 dingers a year? So, the move to 3B for Freddie is only part of what grabs me about this idea. That Adams is breaking out on a nightly basis, he’s in peak physical shape for his career, and that he’s entering his prime years of production are the X-factors that moves this idea from, “Are you out of your MIND?” to “Okay. This intrigues me.” 

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Ryan,

I just want to make a few more comments on this before moving onto another possibility.

The Braves won against Milwaukee on Friday night in no small part because they had a capable defender at third base. With runners on first-and-second - and that run on second was the tying run - a hard shot was hit to third base that Johan Camargo quickly ranged to his left, grabbed the ball, and tossed a strike to second to begin a double play that ended the Brewers' threat. He had no time to waste if he wanted to make the play. In the ninth, after a leadoff double, Dansby Swanson fielded a ball on a grounder up the middle. He expected - and was rewarded with - the third baseman quickly heading to the bag for a possible throw. Camargo received the throw and tagged out the runner. The next batter lifted a long flyball that would have scored the tying run had it not been for Swanson’s heady play.

Does Freeman make those plays? Maybe the second one provided he doesn't get caught napping, but I definitely think he doesn't make the first one.

"But Tommy, in the late innings, they can switch out Camargo for Adams and move Freeman to first for defense."

True, but what if that play happens in the fourth inning and instead of a double play happening, a three-run inning occurs? Try working your way back from that. I know many people think us Deputy Downers are making a mountain out of a molehill when it comes to defense, but it matters, buddy. It really does. You mentioned the 2013 Tigers. Ignoring that Cabrera played third base full-time in '07 and '08 and switched back to the position in '12, the 2013 Tigers bashed their way to 93 wins. They also had the fourth largest difference between ERA and FIP in that their FIP was 0.35 below their team ERA. They actually led the league in FIP, but finished ninth (third in the AL) in ERA. They also had something the Braves don't have. Strikeout pitchers. 60% of their rotation was 200-K pitchers and they rely significantly less on their defense than guys like Jaime Garcia and R.A. Dickey. All I'm saying is that defense matters and ignoring it won't make the Braves much better.

But maybe everything I wrote is for not. Maybe the Braves are doing everything in their power to retain trade value for Matt Adams. Maybe they want the league to be so sure that they'll keep Adams and play Freeman at third only to ensure maximum interest in the slugging Big City. Some have suggested that and while I have a difficult time believing that the Braves - and Freeman - would do this much to convince the league of something they don't actively want to do, anything's possible. So, what say you? Are the Braves trying hard to convince of something that they don't particularly want?

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Tommy,

Defense matters and while I’d like to argue with your points above, I cannot do it and look at myself naked in the mirror tomorrow morning. The risk factor ultimately breaks down to this: Does the offensive upside outweigh what is likely to be below average defense at the hot corner. I cannot answer that until I see a year of it, and honestly I don’t think we will see it play out for that long. Someone is going to offer Coppy something he cannot refuse and, if history rings true, Braves country will either be really happy or ready to burn Suntrust down.

I’m sometimes a conspiracy theorist when it comes to Braves rumors, how they start circulating, and I do believe that the Braves use Mark Bowman a whole heckuva lot when trying to boost value. However, I think this little nugget simply fell into their lap in the form of an unselfish Freddie Freeman. It sounds to me that he’s dead-set on coming back a 3-bagger and that confidence and daily work at the position has itself raised Adams’s value...and someone’s going to pony-up a prospect or 6! What do you think he brings back?

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Ryan,

I have to agree. I don’t buy into the premise that the Braves are letting Freddie Freeman take ground balls at third because they are trying to convince everyone of something they aren’t considering. Instead, I am sure they are considering moving Freeman to third. I don’t like it, but that’s where we are.

Perhaps the option won’t be given to Freeman, though. As you eluded to, the Braves could simply trade away Adams and Freeman would slide back into his usual first baseman gig. But where? And more importantly, what kind of package can the Braves truly expect here?

I’ll look at the latter question first. Adams has absolutely crushed it since joining the Braves just over a month ago. He's bashed a dozen homers in nearly 150 PA with an isolated slugging over .300, a .401 wOBA, and a 148 wRC+. Everything he hits seems to be hard and screaming through the air. For all of the reasons many Braves fans are against trading Adams, you have to imagine that his trade value is climbing.

But how far? Here's where I want to be a little grounded. He's a first baseman who historically is platoon-limited. Is he breaking out in a big way? Potentially, but other teams may not be anxious to hand over A-grade prospects for a guy they grade as position-limited and platoon-limited. That's why he only cost Juan Yepez in the first place. Now, his value has to be higher now, but I don't think he's going to bring back a piece that immediately becomes a Top 5 organizational prospect. Maybe a Top 10 guy, though. Maybe.

And that leads us to who might be interested.

New York Yankees - This matchup is almost too perfect. The Yankees have a deep farm system after selling off their assets last year and have to be anxious to upgrade their first base situation. Chris Carter was brought in, but bombed. Greg Bird is starting to show signs of life, but any value they get back on him at this point is bonus. Tyler Austin recently replaced Carter and is a decent piece, but not a huge prospect by any means. This is a perfect matchup for the Braves.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim - I swear they are fit for most of the Braves' pieces. The problem for the Angels is that after years of selling off assets like Sean Newcomb to compete in the majors, their farm system is bare. Like butt naked bare.

Seattle Mariners - Another repeat appearance for the M's as possible trading partners before the deadline. Danny Valencia has bombed so far this season and might be a better fit in his former utility role. The M's could bring back Dan Vogelbach for an extended look, but with them hovering around .500, might they look to seize the day with a big Adams pickup?

Texas Rangers - Sticking with the AL West, the Rangers platoon of Mike Napoli and Ryan Rua has been a failure. With the Rangers' lineup slacking, Adams would be a good fit for them. Add in a potential bigger deal involving Jaime Garcia and the Rangers could surrender a few good pieces to the Braves.

What are some other good fits? And what do you believe a good package for Adams might look like?

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After last year’s trade deadline which saw asinine prices for 1-year rentals, I really have no idea what players will cost on this market. But here’s the deal, Tommy. Coppy’s not going to trade Adams just to stockpile another prospect in the system. He’s going to look for serious impact at a position that needs it. If not, then his discussion prior to the season regarding trades becomes null. Sure, no one can argue that he needs to trade all of the 1-year veterans as they have no future value to the team, but if the team is going through all of this trouble to accommodate Adams, he’s going to cost a lot to get him. In my opinion, that price is going to be a top-50 prospect. That’s a pretty loose term right now so I’m keeping the door open on pre-season vs. mid-season vs. post-season. I’m sneaky like that.

From Yankees: Blake Rutherford, Miguel Andujar, or Dustin Fowler
From Angels: There’s no one in this system.
From Mariners: Kyle Lewis or Tyler O’Neill
From Rangers: Again, for me, it’s Joey Gallo or bust

Call me crazy...I’m used to it!

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Ryan,

Walk-Off Talk 1.5: Finding A Partner (Part 2)

(Previously...on Walk-Off Talk...Ryan and I tried to find some interested teams for the two most valuable soon-to-be free agents on the Braves, Jaime Garcia and Brandon Phillips. Today, we look at four more pending free agent assets who don't have markets that aren't nearly as robust. Events occur in real time.)

Ryan,

@JMotte30

Last year, John Coppolella turned Hunter Cervenka into Michael Mader and Anfernee Seymour so we know the guy can find quality players for a reliever, but Jason Motte isn't Cervenka. He's not left-handed, he's not 26, and he doesn't carry a half-decade of team control. Is it even worth talking about Motte as a tradeable asset?

To be fair, Motte has been a nice find. He's kept his ERA around 2.00, picked up three holds, and stranded 11 of 15 runners he's inherited. But there are some issues here and that's not only related to the fact he turns 35 today. One, he's been about as lucky as a pitcher can be. The guy has an ERA nearly four runs under what his FIP is at. He's found a way to carry a negative WAR with a 2.14 ERA, which should be impossible. He has a 100% LOB%. His BABIP is a hyper-low .179.

Motte's going to crash and he's going to crash quick. And none of the numbers I cited are secret. While some teams are more stats-savvy than others, it's hard for me to accept that anyone thinks Motte has pitched as well as his ERA states. While we could certainly talk about some teams who are need of relief help, I see Motte more likely to be an added piece in deals involving Jaime Garcia or Brandon Phillips (or others we'll talk about later). Similar to how Jim Johnson was basically attached to the Hector Olivera (CHANGE TO He Who Must Not Be Named) deal. Am I wrong? Do you think there are teams that are going to actually target Motte?

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Tommy,

No. Next?  Just kidding. I think you’re spot on when it comes to Motte as he’ll be a guy that gets attached to another player, if at all! He’s someone that the Braves fans should appreciate this year as he’s been brought in the midst of madness with runners galore and has stranded 11 of 15. Forget that some balls are hit so hard that they nearly take off the infielders’ gloves right before they double up the guy running back to 2nd, that’s a pretty remarkable feat. Velcro him to someone and let’s get another young flamethrower up here.

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Ryan,

I think we will also have similar reactions to the next two players - R.A. Dickey and Bartolo Colon. Let's address the knuckleballer first. He is coming off possibly his best start as a Brave where he tossed seven quality innings against the Giants. I say it was possibly his best start because eleven days before that, he had a Game Score v. 2.0 of 82 against the Phillies, which slightly edges the 81 he put up against San Francisco. Unfortunately, those starts were sandwiched around an eight-run, three-homer affair against the Nats. Since the beginning of 2013, Dickey has a FIP of 4.68 and it's only getting higher.

The righty does carry a - relatively speaking - affordable $8M club option for 2018, but will anyone bite on Dickey (ouch)? It seems hard for me to find a match. Maybe a team like the Red Sox who like the versatility of having a knuckleballer who can serve as a swingman? They lost Steven Wright after all and kept Tim Wakefield around despite some gross numbers toward the end of his career. That's about all I can come up with at this point. A few more games like last weekend, though, and things could change in a hurry.

As for Colon, I know you are going to suggest the Mets and honestly, it's the only option I see as well. Though, I kind of look at it like Julio Franco in reverse. The ageless one left the Braves for the Mets and really struggled in '07. They released him in mid-July and three days later, the Braves added him for the remainder of the season. I see the Mets maybe pouncing on Colon (ouch?) should the Braves cut him, but hard for me to see them giving the Braves anything - even a non-prospect.

And by the way, I think I'm being optimistic here in including two teams that might have any interest whatsoever at this point in either Dickey or Colon.

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Tommy,

Let’s talk about R.A. Dickey and the history of his knuckleball: it gets better with the age of a season. For his career, his ERA during months of March/April is over 5. In May, 4.41. From there?

• June- 3.50
• July- 4.14
• August- 3.89
• September/Oct- 3.45

If there’s a team that knows this about Dickey, he could most definitely be looked at as an innings eater that could keep them in the game. However, that doesn’t negate the current numbers and that his ERA is 4.91. I like your idea about the Red Sox and there could be a match there, but aside from some salary relief, I don’t think there’s reason to discuss return at this point as it likely will be a player of little to no impact.

As for Bartolo, I think it’s Mets or bust, and if the Mets have an underperforming player they’d like to give the Braves in return for Bartolo, that’d be fine with me. On Twitter a few weeks back, I suggested a Bartolo for Josh Smoker deal. Smoker would have to be inserted on the 40-man, but he’s a LH flamethrower that’s finding success in the minors, but hasn’t translated to the bigs yet. Send Mets Bartolo, pay all but 1MM of his salary, and get a lottery ticket in return.

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Ryan,

Smoker? I hardly knew her.

Sorry. I mean, I’ll take any assets as I can for Colon as long as it doesn’t add to the financial bottom line, though I have to admit that I don’t have a lot of faith there is much chance of a deal.

Keith Allison (CC by 2.0) via Wikipedia Commons

Moving on to the Braves’ final one-year contract, let’s look at Kurt Suzuki. Back when the Braves signed Suzuki, I was a little disappointed. I didn't see the point in handing over the backup catcher gig to Suzuki over going with an open competition between Anthony Recker and a cast of thousands. So far, though, Suzuki has been pretty darn impressive. I'll take a wRC+ of 91 out of a backup catcher especially when he's ninth in the league in outside-of-the-zone strike percentage according to Statcorner.com.

It wouldn't be the worst thing to bring him back for 2018 depending on how he finishes this season, but if another team is looking for stability behind the plate and is willing to serve up a prospect or two, I'm definitely going to consider things.

• Arizona - The Diamondbacks have the worst fWAR among their catchers in the majors. Chris Iannetta and Jeff Mathis are both underperforming veterans, though Iannetta has mashed eight homers. Finally, there is Chris Hermann, who hit well last year, but has returned to the third catcher status that followed his career in Minnesota. Both Iannetta and Mathis score well in pitch framing, though Hermann does not. I imagine the Diamondbacks would be more interested in a better solution than Suzuki, but the market is thin and Suzuki might be one of their best options should they seek an improvement.
    
• Toronto - Russell Martin has underperformed, but Suzuki would not steal his playing time. Rather, this is about depth. Toronto started the season with our old friend Jarrod Saltalamacchia behind the plate as the backup, but after he managed just a single in 26 PA (with 16 strikeouts!), the Jays moved on to Luke Maile, a 26 year-old in his third year who has hit .185/.211/.292 over 245 PA. The Jays could definitely use some help here.
    
• Cleveland - Roberto Perez was a bit of a postseason name, but he's hit just .159/.235/.216 this season. Yan Gomez isn't exactly lighting it up, either. Both do provide good defense and Perez is a particularly gifted framer. They don't seem like a good match on paper, but they might be interested in adding some depth.
   
• Washington - Matt Wieters' great start is a distant memory. He's reached 0.0 fWAR and nobody is talking anymore about how the Braves should have got him. Jose Lobaton, his backup, is a great receiver, but with Wieters cooling, might the Nats be interested in a better bat behind him? 

On one hand, the market isn't huge for Suzuki, though you could make an argument that half (if not more) of the league could use a better backup catcher and Suzuki is one of the better ones in baseball this season at providing just that. Do you think there might be abother player here I haven't listed?

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Thanks for asking, Tommy.

While I’ve had a few others that on the surface look like matches for Suzuki (Angels, Red Sox, Rockies), I think you’ve covered the main players. However….

I think the team that really could use Suzuki is a team you’ve discussed, and that is the Diamondbacks. They’re having a pretty good year and could use a fresh veteran presence behind the plate. There’s a LHP out of Vandy in their system that isn’t putting up great numbers at AA despite having great strikeout numbers: Jared Miller. He’s the perfect kind of upside for the Braves to take a risk on and he’s performing poorly enough to where the Diamondbacks would trade him.

But let it be known, I want to see the Braves extend Suzuki. I was of the same opinion as you when he was first signed, but his value as a backup to Tyler has been...well...valuable. I like 2 veteran guys catching our young guys going forward and I’d like to see these 2 back behind the dish in 2018. Obviously, the Braves could do both, trade him then re-sign him in the offseason, and that would be the best of both worlds as long as Suzuki is cool with it.