Walk-Off Talk 1.2: Checking In With the Top 50 - Part 1

In this new series, Ryan Cothran and I have a back-and-forth as we discuss a subject. It's informal and we hope you guys get something out of it. This week, we’ll look at rising and falling prospects using the Walk-Off Walk Top 50 preseason list as a guide (link takes you to posts about the Top 50). At times, we’ll agree. Other times, we’ll disagree. Join the conversation and tell us where we are misguided in the comment section. 

Wilson (left) with Kyle Mueller | Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter

RyRy,

It’s hard not to be smug when talking about the farm system the Atlanta Braves have put together. From trades to acquire even more talent to the smart utilization of the draft to maximize both quality and quantity to a recommitment to the international market - and even holdovers from the Frank Wren era like Lucas Sims and Ozzie Albies - the Braves organization is full of not just depth at a number of positions, but talent that has impact potential. Today, I wanted to go over some of the guys that have increased their stock over the first two months of the season. At the same, we can’t ignore the players who are falling down the prospect rankings. To be fair, some of that is due to the first category - the guys pushing their stock up. But there are a few - yes a few -, that have struggled to this point.

I’m going to use my Top 50 as an outline here. Hey, since you’re a full-fledged member of Walk-Off Walk, I guess you are going to have help me with the midseason rankings. Just know that while I value your opinion, if it doesn’t agree with mine, it’s wrong.

Just kidding. Maybe.

Let’s get on with it. #46 Bryse Wilson is kind of the forgotten arm from last year’s class and not only because I keep forgetting to spell his name with an “s” rather than a “c”. A fourth-round pick, Wilson dominated in the Gulf Coast League, but remained firmly in the shadow of Ian Anderson, Joey Wentz, and Kyle Muller. Yet, it was Wilson, not Muller, that jumped from the GCL to the South Atlantic League to open 2017. He hasn’t been as good as Wentz and Anderson according to FIP, but he’s still been damn good. A lot of pre-draft analysis strongly hinted Wilson could be a bullpen guy, but the Braves wouldn't have picked a high school arm that high (#109) to be a bullpen arm. They thought they saw something in him that maybe others didn't. So far, they might be right.

He’s one of the guys I expect to climb up the midseason list considerably. While I have only done a little prep work for it so far, do you expect a Top 30 placement for Wilson?

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Tommy “Edgar Allan” Poe,

When looking at a list that has some of the best pitching prospects in the game, it’s easy to see Bryse Wilson and simply pass him over.  However, he’s making a believer out of me with a fastball that sits 93-95 MPH, can climb as high as 97, and has staying power throughout his starts. Did I mention he’s still two years away from being able to buy a beer legally in the states? Like many young ones, he’s self-admittedly needing to develop his offspeed stuff. He features both a slider and a changeup, but neither are a plus pitch yet. With so many starting pitchers seemingly in front of him on the depth chart, one could see Bryse being converted to an elite relief pitcher where he can feature his fastball that I’d bet could run up to triple-digits in due time. With 58.2 innings of really good baseball under his belt at Rome, accompanied by both a low-BB rate and a high-K rate, I’d say he’s most definitely a big mover up the list on a loaded system, and could be a quick mover after the 2017 season.

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Cothman,

I agree about Wilson completely. I feel almost ashamed that I under ranked him, but that gives him the opportunity to slide up these rankings considerably by midseason.

On the other hand, #36 Connor Lien is likely completely out of the Top 50. He, like Randy Ventura, was a guy I grew to love in 2015. Unlike Ventura, though, he’s only gotten worse. Back in ‘15, he slashed .285/.347/.415 with incredible defense. While it would have been difficult to predict stardom based on his numbers, there was enough value here to predict a 2-3 fWAR season once Lien was established in the majors.

But that hope is a pipe dream now. He wasn’t terrible during an injury-shortened 2016, but has fallen off the map this season with a strikeout rate hovering around 40%. Even Rob Deer and Mark Reynolds are telling him to make some contact. Things were so bad that he spent a week at extended spring training to try to clear his head. Unfortunately, it appears like Lien’s prospect status has completely eroded or am I wrong?

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Tommy,

I cannot argue here, but I can also brag on myself a bit: I never bit on Lien and I have Chris Johnson to thank for that.  The year of Lien’s breakout was 2 full years after the infamous .394 BABIP. Lien’s was .379 in 2015, and even with that, he didn’t break an .800 OPS. However, guys around Tomahawk Take were blowing up his defensive abilities and that combined with his speed made him a nice under the radar prospect. When Braves chose to leave him unprotected for the Rule-5 draft and he went unclaimed, it told me that no matter how great of a defensive Gandalf he could be, he’s just not going to be a big league commodity. As one can see this year, when his BABIP gets in the “league average” range, the offensive results are poor. You’re right in removing him from the list. Hopefully, for Lien he can turn it around...baseball is hard.

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Mr. Obvious,

Indeed, baseball is very hard. Sometimes, I admit I let my personal feelings overrule the logic side of me. I loved watching Lien in 2015. Still holding out hope he sells his soul for another BABIP-inflated season. It was kind of fun to watch the first time.

Jeff Morris. Follow on Twitter

Onto a happier subject, Cristian Pache turns 19 next November, yet he's handling the South Atlantic League like a guy a few years older and with more experience than 57 games at rookie level. When Pache and Derian Cruz signed back in 2015, it was Cruz that garnered more accolades, but early in their careers, it's Pache who looks like a real prospect.

He's still learning to utilize his speed, but he's got the wheels to do some big things. So far, he's stolen 15 bases and has been caught just four times. But what really intrigues me is the potential pop in his bat. He has a big leg kick before driving forward in the box with a bat that explodes through the zone. It hasn't produced much in terms of real homerun power to this point, but the smart money is that he'll start popping a few in the near future. I had him ranked #26th coming into the season and he might not break into the Top 20 just yet - which is not a slight against him, but a representation of the talent throughout the system. Regardless, I have been impressed with a guy who only has five plate appearances during his brief career against a pitcher younger than him. Oh, and hey, he has elite center fielder potential in the field. Not that the Braves don't already have one of those, but it's great to keep cranking them out.

Despite the big leg kick, he's only striking out about 19% of the time against older and more experienced pitchers. The improvement in his walk rate (5.5% to 8.3%) is also exciting is as I look for progression in rate stats as a tell-tale sign of a rising prospect. So, my question is this, Ryan...how much power do you project Pache developing? I think he can be, at worst, a .150 ISO guy if he progresses like we hope he can. Is that too much to expect?

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TomCat,

The body, the frame to grow into, the speed...it’s all there. But really, the numbers aren’t. In 465 plate appearances, not a single dinger.  What gives? I’ve got a theory, but let’s hold off a bit.

The positives, there’s much to like here as his speed, defensive efficiency, and ability to get on base is what’s driven his prospect rankings and like you stated, these skills are standing up* against competition older than him (it seems like we say this about every Braves prospect these days).

*Albeit, his .707 OPS leaves me wanting more and his .364 BABIP likely isn’t long-term sustainable

But the power? Many would think just by looking at his numbers that he must be a wiry kid, but that’s not the case. He’s 6’2, muscular, 185 pounds, and growing...so again, where’s the power? In the samples that I’ve seen (you can see it on YouTube, but I also subscribe to MILBTV so I’ve seen a15-20 more ABs than the norm) Pache seems to have a problem with weight distribution. So many times (to the point it seems intentional), he gets caught out on his front foot which all but crushes his ability to drive the ball. At this point, I feel it’s a habit he has to break that he probably developed early in his career to utilize his speed and get out of the box quick turning singles into doubles and doubles into triples. If he can stay back on the ball and generate the needed power from his legs, look out! Adding power to his game is the last thing that’s holding this kid back from being a 5-tool athlete on the heels of Ronald Acuna, but it’ll take a lot of time in the cages to work out an old habit that’ll likely take a while to die hard.

Transaction Tuesday: Wisler, Blair, Medlen, and Wentz

In this weekly review of the Braves' transactions, we focus a good deal on the pitchers. Some are attempting to stay in the majors for good while others are trying to work their way back. Elsewhere, one of Atlanta's best young guns is back on the mound just a week after a liner had Braves fans holding their breaths after it struck him.

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between May 23 and May 29. I no longer refer to Taxi Squad, but extended spring training which is what sending a player to Danville technically refers to this early in the year. Many of them don't actually head to extended spring, though. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta

Staff Sgt. Jason Duhr via Wikipedia Commons

Recalled: Matt Wisler...Wisler the Reliever, Part 2. Earlier in the year, Wisler came up and had two good outings and two rough ones - one in which he basically had to "wear it" as the Braves were pummelled 16-5. In two outings since returning, he's thrown four perfect frames with two strikeouts. That, at least, is something to build upon. Wisler's Triple-A ERA was high (5.20), but his FIP and xFIP were much more reasonable at 3.75 and 3.92 respectably. At the very least, I'd much rather see him in long relief than the next guy.

Designated for assignment and outrighted to Gwinnett: Josh Collmenter...Well, that didn't take long. After 19 innings over three starts last September for the Braves, Collmenter can't even duplicate the innings output in 2017. The problem was fairly fundamental. The Braves bought into his brief success without looking at the obvious flaws. His FIP was a good two runs higher than his ERA over those three starts and that's ignoring two very troublesome seasons from 2015-16 as a whole. The Braves rolled the dice and quickly regretted it. Collmenter gave up one run for each of the 17 innings he pitched and often, those runs came on flyballs that haven't landed yet (7 HR!). According to the Braves transaction page, he accepted a demotion to Gwinnett.

Gwinnett
Activated: Enrique Burgos...The often wild, but electric Burgos worked a quiet first frame as a member of the Gwinnett Braves after he was acquired last week. Despite prolific strikeout numbers, the last time Burgos had a better than 2-to-1 strikeout-to-walk rate was back in 2014. He's a project and at 26, probably not a project the Braves will have a wealth of patience to wait on.

Outrighted: Anthony Recker...Rarely used in Atlanta, Recker was DFA'd last week after the flurry of trades and roster moves. He passed through waivers and elected to stick with the team.

Promoted from Mississippi: Wes Parsons...For the second time, Parsons is now a Triple-A ballplayer. The first time came on April 28 when he made an one appearance run with Gwinnett. It's been a long - often arduous - road for Parsons to get to this point. After a combined 142.1 innings over the last three years, Parsons had already reached 30.1 innings this year before the promotion. He's probably a bit miscast as a reliever, but he still flashes plus-plus control. He worked a tough inning in his return, allowing three singles and a run while striking out two.

Rehab: Adonis Garcia...So, Garcia had a four-hit game yesterday. He's definitely coming back and it's going to be pretty darn interesting what happens when he does. I have to believe that John Coppolella will wave off any lobbying by Brian Snitker and sent Emilio Bonifacio packing. When Garcia returns, he will likely settle into a platoon option, though knowing Snitker, we may get more of a timeshare than a platoon which ignores the best parts of Rio Ruiz and Garcia's game.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Rehab: Eric O'Flaherty...Last week, O'Flaherty hit the DL after aggravating his back giving up a homerun to Jose Bautista playing on the Toronto turf. He'll likely join the Braves soon after already making his first rehab appearance with a perfect frame. But should the Braves really roll out the carpet to welcome back him? We were told that after having his elbow cleaned out last year, he was feeling better than he had in a few years. There were reports he was getting sink on his pitches once again. And then the data came rolling in and said otherwise. According to PITCHf/x, at his best, O'Flaherty was getting between 5.71 and 6.74 of vertical movement on his sinker. It's down to 4.45 this season, which is actually very similar to last year's 4.56. His fourseamer had between 8.11 and 9.27 inches of vertical movement. It's been between 6.23 and 6.47 the last two seasons. He's using his slider a lot more now and getting half of the depth as his best Braves years. In his favor is that he's still handling lefties so far. That might be enough to get him back on the roster. But he's not "back" in the deeper sense. Not even a bit.

DL'd: Aaron Blair...Two years ago, Blair flashed plus-plus control with some newfound ability to induce his fair share of grounders. It made the Braves anxious to acquire him. Since coming to Atlanta, his control has never been worse (12.6 BB% this season), his strikeouts have never been worse, and his groundball rate has fallen ten points. Did the Braves rush him to the bigs last year? I don't think so. Blair's not making adjustments and that's not the fault of the Braves. He quickly fell into the habit of nibbling last year after he got to the majors. It reminds me of how Mike Minor pitched once he got to the majors from 2010-2012. His fear led him to give up baserunners in bunches until he finally started to trust his stuff. When that happened, Minor posted a 3.5 fWAR during 2013. Will Blair follow a similar path or will he continue to regress? Hopefully, it will be the former. I'm not sure why Blair hit the DL, by the way.

DL'd: Joel De La Cruz...He's spent more of the season on the DL than on the active roster. When he has been healthy, the results have been pretty miserable. Remember that this was a guy who threw 62.2 innings for last year's pitching staff.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Kris Medlen...After turning some heads with a six shutout innings in his 2017 debut, Medlen was roughed up by Clearwater last week for five runs in 5.1 ING. Nevertheless, he received a promotion up the ladder as he tries to work his way back into the picture. The control has been suspect, which you might expect from a guy working off the rust. The Braves could use all the help they can get and if Medlen does make it all the way back, he'll certainly force Atlanta to make a potentially tough decision.

Activated: Stephen Gaylor...The left-hand hitting outfielder has played in just a dozen games this season and is off to a 3-for-30 start with two walks. An undrafted free agent back in 2014, Gaylor showed a decent enough hit tool until arriving in Carolina last year. It's gotten much worse at Double-A.

Activated: Danny Reynolds...Picked up after becoming a minor league free agent this offseason, Reynolds' fourth season at Double-A has been a mixed bag. His groundball rate has shot up and his control is a bit improved compared to the previous two seasons, but his strikeouts have declined. His 5.48 ERA is a bit misleading - his LOB% is 56% - but his FIP and xFIP tell two different stories (3.33/4.56).

Demoted to Extended Spring: Connor Lien (#36)...It's hard to be too disappointed with Lien this year. With a deeper system than two years ago, he was no longer a borderline Top 20 prospect. Of course, his injury-riddled 2016 was also a factor. Though, even if he wasn't a major prospect anymore, this season has been tough to watch Lien go through. He was hitting .187/.268/.343 at the time of his demotion with 59 K's in 149 PA. That comes out to a nearly 40% strikeout rate - about 15% higher than his 2015 campaign. He has looked lost and unable to turn it around. Perhaps sometime at extended spring where he can clear his head will help.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him
on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

DL'd: Bradley Roney (#38)....It's been a tough campaign for Roney, whose talented by wild arm had him pitching meaningful games in the International League playoffs last year. After opening the year on the DL, he headed to Florida in late April before a promotion to Mississippi. He was actually doing okay there and unintentionally walked just four of the first 36 he faced while striking out a dozen, but he's now back on the DL.

Florida
Promoted from Rome: Matt Gonzalez...Picked in the sixth round last year out of Georgia Tech, Gonzalez missed the first month of action while in extended spring training until a call-up after the first week of May. He then spent just 16 games in Rome, hitting .300/.355/.329. He picked up starts at third and in left and made a cameo at second base. It's second base that might help Gonzalez find some playing time in Florida as Alay Lago has underwhelmed to this point.

Demoted to Extended Spring: Andres Santiago...Often one of the names that fluctuates on-and-off the roster, Santiago has appeared nine times this year, including seven games with Florida. The results haven't been there for the eleven-year veteran, though the strikeouts look great (21 in 14.2 ING).

Released: J.B. Moss...To make room for Gonzalez, the Braves cut Moss, a seventh-round selection last year. Moss had blitzed the Appalachian League after being drafted, but the former Texas A&M star struggled with Carolina and then this season in his brief twelve games with Florida. Moss's value with the Braves was tied into how much money he saved them by signing under-slot last June. It's the tough thing about being signed less for your potential and more about allowing the team to sign the guys they actually want.

Rome
Activated: Joey Wentz (#14)...Good to see the southpaw Wentz back out there on Memorial less than two weeks after taking a liner off his leg. He tossed four innings of one-run ball in his return with a walk and three strikeouts. On the year, Wentz has a 3.18 ERA and over a strikeout an inning.

Promoted from Extended Spring: Ramon Osuna...With Rome getting little-to-no production from Anthony Concepcion and Kurt Hoekstra at first base, Osuna will get a chance to see if he can help out. A 14th round pick out of Walters State Community College in Morristown, TN last year, Osuna hit .276/.342/.423 with four homers in Danville. He struck out a ton (29%) and the former corner outfielder in college struggled with his new role at first base. Hopefully, an offseason of fine-tuning his skills will help him look more comfortable at first base.

Demoted from Mississippi: Joe Rogers...The late-spring cut by the Tigers has shown up a number of times in this series as he cycled on-and-off the Mississippi roster while only pitching three games.

Demoted to Extended Spring: Raymar Navarro...The Cuban righty has been limited to just five games with Rome this year. They have been successful for the most part, but the 26-year-old is not progressing up the depth chart despite pitching 67 innings last year at High-A.

DL'd: Oriel Caicedo...There have been two Oriel Caicedos in professional baseball. Both were signed out of Panama by the Braves. One is 26 and hasn't played since 2011 while the other recently hit the DL. Caicedo is no spring chicken at 23 years-old and made his debut in 2011...where he played with the other Oriel Caicedo. Seriously, this is something for me to obsess about. New Caicedo has impeccable control (just 71 unintentional passes in 411.2 innings), but also won't pick up many K's. He's been a swingman throughout his career and this marks his third year with Rome. Not sure what sent Caicedo to the DL.

Saturday Stats Pack: Flowers, Stolen Bases, Bullpen, Sims

Unlike last season where I posted two separate entries, I'm going to try to do one Saturday Stats Pack with both major league and minor league notable stats. So, without too much stalling, here is this week's edition.

Tyler Flowers (By Editosaurus (Own work) [CC0],
via Wikimedia Commons)

.344 wOBA

Over the last two seasons, only six catchers have stepped into the batter's box at least 350 times and have a better weighted on-base average than Tyler Flowers. They include the current elite of the elite (Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy), the young Willson Contreras, a career-year from Wilson Ramos, the impressive Yasmani Grandal, and a part-time backstop in Evan Gattis. This is a surprise for White Sox fans, who saw Flowers post a wOBA of almost a hundred points lower during nearly 1400 PA playing in the black-and-white. To put it in simple terms, Flowers is simply making better contact. While with the White Sox, 20% of the balls he hit were given a soft-contact classification. There is a correlation between a high Soft% and a lower BABIP. Unsurprisingly, Flowers' BABIP has surged since coming to the Braves as he's lowered his Soft% to 13.4%. Meanwhile, his Hard-Hit rate has climbed 12 points. No catcher since 2016 can match it. Sure, there do remain sample size concerns here, but Flowers is winning over doubters every week that he continues to produce.

82.4%

So far, the Braves are 14-for-17 in stolen bases - a success rate of 82.4%. This would be some kind of franchise record. Only once in franchise history have the Braves reached the 80% threshold. That came in 1941 when the Braves swiped 61-of-76, good for an 80.3% rate. The Braves' best rate since moving to Atlanta came in 2012 when the Michael Bourn-Jason Heyward-Martin Prado outfield helped the Braves steal a shade under 76% of their attempts. Last year, they only stole 69%, which is still nice, I hear.

62.2 Innings

For all of the vitriol the Braves bullpen has received - and sometimes deserves - Brian Snitker has relied on his relievers for the third-fewest innings of any bullpen in baseball. Compared to the Reds, the Braves have needed 35.1 fewer innings from their relievers. To be fair, though...part of that accomplishment is because Atlanta has played, along with a few other teams, the fewest games in baseball - though the Reds have played just two more. Atlanta's starters have thrown 123 innings, good for 23rd.

What Are We, Anyway?

After Roger McDowell was let go, I wondered if it would alter how the Braves tried to pitch. McDowell was a guy who stressed the importance of pitching low and getting grounders. So far, the Braves pitching staff doesn't seem to be doing anything at a rate that suggests any kind of philosophy. Their strikeout rate is fourth worst, their walk rate is 11th worst, and only six teams induce fewer grounders. Their HR/FB rate is in the middle of the pact. However...they do one thing that stands out. 22% of the balls that batters connect on are rated as softly hit. This may be due, in part, because only the Cubs have a worse fastball velocity than the Braves. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see if anything substantial comes from a Chuck Hernandez-led pitching staff like the McDowell years.

Rick Briggs (CC by 2.0) via Flickr

Minor League Stats of Interest...Gwinnett - 2.3 BB/9

There's nothing too exciting about the walk rate above until you bring it into context. Since 2015, Lucas Sims' walks per nine innings have ranged from 5.2 and 5.9. Before that, he kept it around 3.5 BB/9 - which isn't great, but certainly something that can be worked around as a starting prospect. Early on this season, we have seen a possible return to the pre-2015 version of Sims. In 23.2 innings, Sims has walked just six. Sims has always had the stuff and typically carries a low H/9 as a result. Now, he's keeping batters off base, though the BABIP is artificially too low and will climb. The Sims of 2017 is no longer a top prospect. Outfield Fly Rule did a composite list of his rating according to Braves' top prospect lists and he landed #21 - a bit lower than my ranking of #18. However, if he continues to pitch like the top-flight prospect he once was, it's only a matter of time until he gets a shot to show what he has.

Mississippi - 38.4%

Travis Demeritte has routinely seen his prospect status hurt by his strikeout rate. It was 33% last season and 35% the season before. The offensive skills are intriguing, but the strikeouts are an issue. And, to be frank, a strikeout rate of 38.4% is very bad. The thing is...that rate is about 20% higher than Demeritte's, who has only struck out in 18% of his plate appearances this year. Instead, the 38.4% strikeout rate belongs to Connor Lien. The defensively minded outfielder became a bit of a prospect back in 2015 when he slashed .285/.347/.415 at high-A ball with a plethora of big defensive plays, but injuries limited him to just 64 games when he played at Double-A last season. So far this season, he's put a clinic on how not to reclaim your prospect status. Lien has hit four homers and stolen five bases - trends that could end with season stats that look rather solid. But at a near 40% strikeout rate (compared to a near 5% walk rate), he'll be in line for some problematic times.

Florida - 7.20 ERA, but Trending Up

Touki Toussaint is still a raw pitcher facing hitters that are older and more experienced than he is. He's trying to solve high-A ball for the first time and is still over a month away from turning 21. You might look at his 7.20 ERA and say "he's just not ready for the Florida State League." I, on the other hand, look at his K/BB rate and start to get excited. Like Lucas Sims, Toussaint's stuff is off the charts. In fact, his stuff is as good as anyone's in minor league baseball. What talent evaluators have doubts about are his ability to harness and control that stuff. He's been hit hard so far this season, but his 3.8 K/BB rate tells me he might be "getting it" a bit more. Consider that his career rate is 1.75 strikeouts per walk. Don't be discouraged if you see that ERA. Something good might just be happening here.

Rome - Waves Upon Waves

We've heard how John Coppolella and company want to build a farm system that will send prospects to the majors in waves. After last season's Rome pitching staff that included three former first round picks led the team to a league title, the next wave has landed in Rome and the South Atlantic League has turned into their playground. In 22 games, the staff has a 2.28 ERA. Starters Ian Anderson (1.93 ERA), Joey Wentz (2.70), and Bryse Wilson (2.55) were all plucked out of the first-thru-fourth rounds last year and each has been excellent. Relievers Thomas Burrows, Jon Kennedy, and Matt Custred each have ERAs under 1.00. As a staff, Rome has a K/9 of 9.7 per nine and have surrendered just four homers. It's early, but it looks like Rome will be a favorite to repeat in the South Atlantic League.

Braves Add Xavier Avery, Not Nady

Keith Allison via Flickr (CC by 2.0)

True story. When I originally heard the Braves signed a new outfielder, my first thought was, "Xavier Nady is still around?"

But that was not to be as the Braves added local product Xavier Avery to a minor league pact. The left-hand hitting outfielder just turned 27 on New Year's Day and graduated from Cedar Grove High School (Ellenwood, GA) back in 2008. That was when the Orioles picked him in the second round. He quickly inked a contract with the O's to begin his career.

Not Nady's minor league career includes one year of double-digit homeruns, two years of 30+ doubles, five seasons of 30+ stolen bases, and a career-best .756 OPS in 2014 in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League. In addition to his time with the O's, Avery has played for the Mariners and in one year, had runs with the Triple-A squads for the Tigers, Twins, and Giants. Last year, his ninth year in professional ball, was a homecoming of sorts as he returned to the Orioles' organization and hit .248/.332/.363 in the International League.

Avery's greatest asset is the ability to play a passable center field - though Clay Davenport's metrics paint the picture of someone better suited for left field. Regardless, it's not like the Braves don't need bodies for the outfield. With Connor Lien likely returning to Mississippi while Dustin Peterson climbs to Gwinnett, the rest of the Gwinnett outfield includes holdovers Ronnier Mustelier, Mel Rojas Jr., and Matt Tuiasosopo along with newcomer Lane Adams. Of course, there's also the possibility of Emilio Bonifacio. That doesn't include the chance that one of the previous names will make the final roster coming out of spring training as a 4th outfielder.

Avery is unlikely to be part of that mix, though he did have a 32-game run in the majors back in 2012. Nevertheless, you need bodies at Triple-A and Avery is that.

For all of the Braves' minor league free agent comings and goings, you can see this page.

Braves Top 50 Prospects, 2017 Preseason: #42-#31

Last week, I began my Top 50 prospects and almost immediately, the Atlanta Braves swung a deal for more prospects. So...thanks for that, John Coppolella.

I kid, but the trade forced me to change my Top 50 to a Top 52 as both players acquired jumped right into the list with one appearing in today's portion. To get me back on track, today's part of the list will be supersized to a dozen. Short of another trade, I'll release ten more next week and ten more the following week before splitting the Top 10 into two parts. I also must apologize for this post being so late. I've been sick the last few days and had trouble wrapping my head around this list. 

When I originally did my Top 50 prospect list, I had Kyle Kinman ranked #38. However, I realized he was actually 26 and I like to keep my prospect lists limited to 25-and-under and players designated as a rookie. With that said, I thought his placement was worth a mention. Lastly, please check out Gondeee's Top 30 Braves prospects that he published this week. As usual, it's a valuable read. 

42. Jonathan Morales, Catcher, 22 years-old, Grade: C 

It wasn't the season many had hoped for with Morales. After blitzing the Gulf Coast Lague (.304/.377/.511) the previous year, Morales jumped to Rome in 2016 and saw a 220 point drop in his OPS. Included was a long stretch of 41 games where he hit .151/.241/.212. That month-plus really impacted his numbers, though even if you take those games out, it was still a far cry from his 2015 run after he was a 25th round pick.

Morales has decent pop and won't strike out much. The flipside of that is he's so aggressive that he's unlikely to take many walks. Offensively, the right-handed hitter needs his hit tool to stand out and it simply did not in 2016. Defensively, though scouting reports aren't high on him, he's had solid metrics and has impressively gunned down half of the 106 baserunners that attempted to steal on him. He also played a little third and had a three-inning cameo in right field, though that was likely more for emergencies.

With the depth behind Morales, he'll be pushed up to Florida in the spring and will need a bounceback season. Obviously, by the fact I ranked him so high, I think he's capable of it. While I don't think his ceiling is nearly as high as other catchers in the system, he is part of a much-improved catching depth that was non-existent two years ago.

41. Steve Janas, RHP, 25 years-old, Grade: C 

Holy groundballs! Janas has maintained a groundball rate in the minors of over 55% during his young career. In nearly 300 innings, he's given up just 14 homers. However, what holds back Janas is that he lacks a true pair of plus pitches or the velocity to push him higher on prospect lists. Nevertheless, this is a results-driven business and the results aren't too shabby for Janas.

Though he won't blow you away with heat, he can hit mid-90's. The downside of doing so is that it makes his fastball straight and easy to both see and pound. As a result, he'll sit in the low-90's with his sinker and cutter. He also has a plus changeup and an inconsistent breaking curveball. Janas was a starter until last season when he got pushed to the bullpen. 

His control and ability to generate groundballs will get him looks and his fearlessness on the mound makes him a wild card. However, the lack the stuff and strikeout ability may limit him to Quad-A filler/organizational depth similar to one of his most common comparable pitchers according to Clay Davenport's projection system - Zeke Spruill. Strangely, both righties went to high school in Marietta. Janas will get a look this spring, but with Josh Collmenter already on the team, Janas is likely going to provide long relief/swingman depth behind a talented Gwinnett rotation.

40. Chad Sobotka, RHP, 23 years-old, Grade: C 

Similar to A.J. Minter, the Braves drafted Sobotka in 2014 knowing that he wouldn't pitch until the next season. As opposed to Tommy John surgery like Minter had, Sobotka was coming back from a stress fracture in his back, which put an ugly end to his collegiate career with the University of South Carolina-Upstate.

His 2015 season was limited to just 37 innings and they were rarely good, but the 6'7" righty bounced back in 2016. His numbers with Rome look poor (4.26 ERA, more hits than innings pitched), but the Braves still liked what they were seeing and promoted him to Carolina. In 13 games there, Sobotka finally started to perform with a 2.04 ERA/1.51 FIP over 17.2 innings. He struck out 24 and walked just three - a far cry from the dozen he walked in just 19 innings with Rome to begin the year. By season's end, he had joined Minter in Mississippi for two appearances.

Sobotka's velocity is good, though not great. However, he gets great movement and his two-seamer can get a good number of grounders. His slider has plus-potential and while he has a changeup, he will mostly work off his fastball/slider. Sobotka could be in the majors sometime in 2017, though with just 75.2 innings as a professional, Atlanta might go slow with him. Either way, Sobotka looks like he has a shot to be a solid righty with high-leverage potential.



39. William Contreras, Catcher, 19 years-old, Grade: C+

Over two seasons, Contreras has shown that he could be capable of being a big sleeper in a system with rapidly improving catcher depth. Just 19 years-old, Contreras signed out of Venezuela and made his debut with the 2015 Dominican Summer League team. His triple slash of .314/.370/.413 was solid enough before you consider his age (17) and position.

Contreras moved up to the Gulf Coast League this year, where he shared time with Ricardo Rodriguez (acquired in the Christian Bethancourt trade) and 26th rounder Alan Crowley. His numbers took a bit of a dive to .264/.346/.375. He displays a quick bat and there is some power projection.

Scouts rave about Contreras's defensive ability behind the plate and how he handles pitchers. I like his offensive potential as well. He's the type of player who could easily have a breakout campaign and jump up this list quickly. While he'll be ticketed for a stop in Danville for 2017, I do hope he plays his way up to Rome, which would further cement his prospect potential.

38. Bradley Roney, RHP, 24 years-old, Grade: C+

For three years, Roney has both excited Braves fans with big K numbers and frustrated Braves management because he often doesn't know where his pitches are going. In 67.2 innings last year in the high levels of the minor leagues, Roney struck out 88 - the most strikeouts by a Braves reliever and tied for 15th in the entire system. That strikeout rate was actually down a tad from 2015. Unfortunately, his walk rate continues to be his Achilles' heel.

In 2016, Roney issued 54 unintentional walks - a rate of about seven every nine innings. His strike percentage was about 6% below the league average. You can't survive for long doing that no matter how good his curve is - and it's really good. It's a major league quality pitch, but without pitching ahead in the count more frequently, hitters can let the curve dart below the strikezone.

Last year at this time, we looked at Mauricio Cabrera in much the same way as Roney. Sure, Cabrera had 100 mph heat and some good secondary stuff, but will he throw strikes? Cabrera was a higher rated talent, but Roney can have a similar impact on the major league roster if he can only throw strikes. No better time than 2017 to start.



37. Thomas Burrows, LHP, 22 years-old, Grade: C+

Acquired last week in the Mallex Smith trade, Burrows was the #117 pick of the 2016 draft. Before that, he became the all-time saves leader at the University of Alabama. It's easy to look over Burrows when the Braves also acquired Luiz Gohara in this deal, but Burrows has a good chance to get to the majors - and soon.

Burrows pitched in the short-season Northwest League after he was drafted and blitzed the circuit with 37 strikeouts in 24.2 innings. That comes out to a third of all batters he faced. He gave up a lot of hits, though a .367 BABIP will do that to you. The walk rate wasn't good, but competent enough to help Burrows earn a 2.88 FIP.

Burrows gets good sinking movement from his low-to-mid 90's heater and his slider improved dramatically in 2016. Lefties have a very difficult time even picking up the ball and that will likely continue to be an asset for the southpaw. Whether he can be a full-inning reliever and high-leverage asset will be something to watch as he moves up the ladder.

36. Connor Lien, OF, 23 years-old, Grade: C+

It was not the season many had hoped for Lien in 2016 - least of all the outfielder himself. In 2015, Lien burst onto the scene with a .285/.347/.415 clip in the pitching-friendly Carolina League with 36 extra-base hits and 34 steals. The season was awarded with a trip to the Arizona Fall League, which is where the video below came from

However, an early season hand injury put Lien on the shelf for over two months in 2016. The 22-year-old also struggled when he was in the field, slashing just .233/.320/.408 with a 33% strikeout rate. On the bright side, he continued to display tremendous defense in center field.

Lien possesses good pop and his defense includes an elite arm and great instincts and range. However, his bat still needs a bit more refining. The plus side is that even with his negatives last year, the .175 ISO and 9% walk rate help to put an optimistic spin on the season. He'll likely repeat Mississippi to begin 2017 and try to trend positive once again.

35. Jesse Biddle, LHP, 25 years-old, Grade: C+

After a lost year to Tommy John surgery, Biddle will be given the chance to return and flourish in 2017. A former top prospect for the Phillies who the Braves acquired from the Pirates after the latter tried to sneak him through waivers. 

I recently wrote a scouting report about Biddle so I would rather not spend too much time rehashing it here so here are the highlights. Biddle is a former Top 100 Prospect who struggles with his release point. If he can find more consistency with it, he can get over his fastball and let the pitch work for him. His curveball has exceptional bite and is his best pitch. 

Biddle will have a shot to compete for a spot in the bigs this spring, but I imagine the Braves see 2017 as a year for Biddle to work on things rather than pressure himself with a big league assignment. A decent spring and a bill of health will allow him to begin the year in Gwinnett. If not, he could start a level lower. Regardless, Biddle could be a sneaky-good move by the Braves front office if he's able to rebound.

34. Caleb Dirks, RHP, 23 years-old, Grade: C+

After a year in the Dodgers' system, Dirks returned last year to the organization that spent a 15th round pick on him back in 2014. Not that it has mattered much to Dirks - he continues to dominate opposing hitters every step of the way.

In 143.1 innings, Dirks has a beautiful 1.32 ERA and an FIP under 3.00. He won't put up ridiculous strikeout numbers - especially for this system, but he's been close to a 30% K-rate regardless. What makes Dirk especially good is his control. He had about a 20% difference between his strikeouts and walks - an elite number worth celebrating.

Dirks doesn't have the best stuff and his velocity won't wow anyone, but he knows how to throw his pitches and hits his spots. Last year, that was especially true because about 43% of his pitches came with Dirks ahead in the count. The average is roughly 6-7% lower. Dirks may lack the ceiling of some relieving prospects the Braves have, but as long as he continues to pitch like he has, he'll have his opportunity to impress.

33. Ricardo Sanchez, LHP, 20 years-old, Grade: C+

Year 2 of Ricardo's time with the Braves was much healthier than his 10-start 2015 campaign, but the results remained underwhelming for the teenager who won't turn 20 until April 11. The last fact gives the Braves hope that 2017 will be the year Sanchez begins to scratch the surface of his talent.

Talent and stuff-wise, Sanchez can excite you on a good day with low 90's heat and a very good curveball. His delivery is smooth and he adds a developing changeup that often can make or break him on any given day depending on his feel for the pitch.

Sanchez is trying to put it all together. He's prone to a big inning and can sometimes lose focus. Undersized, Sanchez can resemble a bulldog when in trouble as he tries to get out of jams. He's a competitor and a strong worker - he just needs to be more consistent. It's hard to get noticed in this system if you weren't a #1 pick, but Sanchez has the stuff to be a sleeper in 2017.




32. Lucas Herbert, Catcher, 20 years-old, Grade: C+

Kolby Allard's catcher in high school, Herbert was picked in the second round of the 2015 draft. Many assumed the Braves were hedging their bets in order to keep Allard from going to college rather than signing. However, I thought the Braves really liked what Herbert brought to the table and felt he was worth the pick. To this point, we haven't seen the results to support that contention.

It's early, yes, and Herbert was aggressively moved to Low-A Rome probably before he was ready. As a result, only 12 of the 367 PA he logged last year came against pitchers younger than him. Herbert struggled last year to find the right stance, the right setup with his hands, the right amount of batting gloves. He seems to me like a batter that really needs to rework much of what he does at the plate. If he can find consistency at the plate, his plus power will be a weapon and could be the difference between a starting and backup role in the majors should he get there.

Defensively, Herbert is a tremendous force behind the plate. He's incredibly athletic and shows great footwork along with great instincts at reading the ball. These skills will give him a chance to stick around even if his bat is still lagging behind, but I do hope the Braves show a bit more patience with him. He clearly did not appear ready for Rome and could use a return assignment. However, with so many catchers now in the system, finding at-bats for all of them is becoming a bit more difficult. Still, Herbert's power and defense are worth an extended look.


31. Ray-Patrick Didder, Outfield, 22 years-old, Grade: C+

The converted infielder had spent three years at rookie ball showing a good idea of the strikezone, but not much else. That changed in 2016 when the now center fielder settled into the position with Rome. In nearly 600 plate appearances, Didder posted a .361 wOBA with the aid of a .387 OBP. He added a .107 ISO to go with 37 steals.

One thing that stands out quickly about Didder is that he trusts his hands enough to crowd the plate. Last year, he was hit 39 times, the most in minor league baseball. While he has great speed, he's still developing an eye for when to steal. Defensively, he's a surprisingly rather good there despite being a middle infielder only a few years ago. He has the range to play center with a strong and accurate arm.

Up until this point, Didder has been about league average in age each year. That might change this year as a strong start with the Fire Frogs could get the 22-year-old promoted to Mississippi by summer. Such a move would cement his place as a strong outfield prospect. Either way, if Didder keeps developing like he did last year, the Braves will be very pleased with the Arubian native.

2017 Walk-Off Walk Top 50 Prospects*
5 Looking In (Honorable Mentions)
#52-43

The Walk-Off Walk Top 52 Prospects (to recap)
52. Jon Kennedy
51. Isranel Wilson
50. Yoeli Lopez
49. Carlos Castro
48. Dilmer Mejia
47. Anfernee Seymour
46. Bryse Wilson
45. Kade Scivicque
44. Yunior Severino
43. Abrahan Gutierrez
42. Jonathan Morales
41. Steve Janas
40. Chad Sobotka
39. William Contreras
38. Bradley Roney
37. Thomas Burrows
36. Connor Lien
35. Jesse Biddle
34. Caleb Dirks
33. Ricardo Sanchez
32. Lucas Herbert
31. Ray-Patrick Didder

*Top 50 was increased to Top 52 after a trade.

Transaction Tuesday: Gant, Lien, Sobotka

I'm going to try something new this season and that's keeping up with minor league transactions. Every Tuesday, I'll take a look at each level to go over some of the moves and provide analysis. If this is the kind of thing that interest you, let me know. For this week, I am going to ignore the moves to set the opening day roster and simply focus on releases and moves because of injuries/promotions.

Gwinnett
Signed: Emilio Bonifacio...Cut at the end of spring training, Bonifacio looked around, but ultimately returned to Atlanta to try to get back to the majors. The signing of Bonifacio was strange during the offseason as Atlanta gave the utility player $1.25M despite being cut last year because of a .390 OPS with the White Sox. With the promotion of Mallex Smith, you have to imagine Bonifacio will jump right into the lineup near the top. He's a decent 25th man option for NL teams who can utilize his speed and versatility, but if you need at-bats from him, you've already lost.

Demoted: John Gant...The crazy delivery ultimately did little to confuse major league hitters, who battered Gant for six hits, including two homers, in three innings. He was likely to head to the minors anyway so his early demotion was more of a sign of how badly the Braves bullpen needed a fresh arm. Gant has never played at Triple-A and presumably will head back to a starting role, replacing Jhoulys Chacin, who moved up to the majors to start tonight's game.

Mississippi
DL'd: Connor Lien...Things were going to be difficult enough for Lien handling Double-A pitching without a hand injury sidelining him. Lien's bat has improved in increments each year after beginning his career in the Gulf Coast League in 2012. Defensively, he's a tremendous fielder whose range is a gift to the corner outfielders. Hopefully, he is able to get back into the lineup soon.

Promoted: Sean Godfrey...It took Godfrey 62 games last year to get to Mississippi from the Carolina. This year, just one. After pretty much hitting since he was drafted in the 2014 22nd rounder, Godfrey met his match in Southern League pitching last season (.194/.232/.272 over 194 PA). At his best, he hits for a high average and sprinkles in some extra base hits with a few steals. At his worst, he's the Godfrey from last summer.

Carolina
Promoted: Stephen Gaylor...It's fitting that he was promoted to place Godfrey because it's difficult to differentiate between the pair for yours truly. Like Godfrey, Gaylor's value is that he's a high-effort guy with guile. The problem is that's not too much of a compliment, but a nice way of saying "he tries real hard."

Rome
DL'd: Chad Sobotka...after one game in which he gave up a hit, a walk, and uncorked a wild pitch, Sobotka's career is back on pause. Drafted with the knowledge that he'd miss 2014 because of injury, Sobotka was a sneaky sleeper in 2015, but struggled badly. Already 22, the hope was that he would pitch well enough to progress up to Carolina this year, though a DL trip was not in the cards.

Promoted: Bradley Keller...An outfielder out of Shelby, NC, the former Crest High School standout was promoted to fill Gaylor's spot. He slashed .245/.321/.350 last year with 9 EBH, 7 steals, and an ugly 50 K's in 162 PA.

Promoted: Oriel Caicedo...Replacing Sobotka on the roster is a player with a good amount of experience in the South Atlantic League already. Caicedo has actually been around since 2011, when he made his debut in the DSL. He flashes great control, but that's about it to this point. He's already made an appearance for Rome and has extensive time as a starter, though the Rome staff is considerably more stacked than it was in 2015 when he made 15 starts.

Danville
Nothing to report.

GCL Braves
Released: Franklin Azuaje...there was some minor hope that Azuaje would develop into a decent third base prospect when the Braves signed him out of Venezuela, but after a decent debut in the DSL during 2013, he rarely saw the field over the last two seasons. Part of that was due to a suspension that ended his 2014 season.

Released: Kevin Reiher...A 24th rounder in 2014 who missed last season, Reiher barely played during his career with the Braves.

DSL Braves
Nothing to report.

Need more Braves material to read? Check out my column from yesterday at my other blog. I looked at the first week of the season and more.