Braves Trade Mallex, Get Stud Left-Hander

Twice this offseason, the Atlanta Braves have grouped major-league ready assets for higher-ceiling prospects. On Wednesday, they did it a third time as they acquired lefthanders Luiz Gohara and Thomas Burrows for right-handed reliever Shae Simmons and speedy outfielder Mallex Smith. The latter spent all of two minutes with the Mariners before being re-packaged in a deal to Tampa Bay. The two minutes might be a bit hyperbolic.

Much like the trades that saw the Braves acquire Luke and Alex Jackson (no relation), this trade is all about going for the elite prospect - in this case, Gohara. For years, the lefty made talent evaluators excited about his future, but the Brazillian southpaw struggled to find his way. While last year was his Age-19 season, it was his fourth year already in professional ball. It was also his best.

For the second consecutive season, he split time with Everett in the short-season A Northwest League and Clinton in the A-ball Midwest League - however, he flipped the script by spending the bulk of his time with Clinton after doing the opposite in 2015. The lefty set new highs in innings pitched (69.2) and strikeouts (81) while lowering his walk rate about 4%. His FIP in the 2.50's was nearly two runs lower than the previous year.

Gohara works off mid-90's heat and his secondary pitches took a step forward in 2016. His slider has strikeout potential at the major league level and his changeup could be good enough to keep hitters from being able to key into his fastball - which is not just fast, but comes with a good deal of movement. To this point, he has carried strong groundball numbers throughout the minors and in a superb pitching system, he won't get lost if he pitches up to his ability. In some ways, his acquisition reminds me of Ricardo Sanchez two years ago - except Gohara is more developed at the time of the deal.

Burrows essentially gives the Braves another 2016 draft choice. Picked #117 last year out of the University of Alabama where he is the career saves leader, Burrows spent his summer in Everett where he struck out 33.3% of opposing hitters. The walk rate will need to be cleaned up (10%), but all in all, it was a successful first year for the lefty complete with a 2.88 FIP.

A relief-only option, Burrows doesn't have big-time heat with low-to-mid 90's velocity, but gets great movement out of a 3/4's delivery which helps to create a natural sink to the pitch. The fact that he stands on the first-base side of the rubber also helps add sweeping motion. His second pitch, a low 80's slider, looked much better in his senior season, which helped to push him up the draft.

Make no mistake, though. This deal was about Gohara. It cost the Braves a pair of pieces that could have helped the 2017 team. Simmons came onto the scene in 2014 as a mid-90's pitcher with a solid breaking pitch. Immediately, he was compared to then-Braves closer Craig Kimbrel for his potential dominance on the mound. Injuries, including Tommy John surgery, limited the righty to just seven games over the last two seasons. Expected to compete for a bullpen spot, Simmons still had a chance to put himself in line to be a closer one day with the Braves before this deal was completed. Nevertheless, the Braves have a large collection of potential bullpen arms, which I recently wrote about. Losing Simmons, while unfortunate, won't change that.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], 

On the other hand, losing Mallex Smith could hurt - in the short term. Depending on who you talked to or read, Smith had a chance to be a top-of-the-lineup center fielder with good on-base skills. Or, he could be a solid fourth outfielder. The Braves may have counted on the latter and that's a fair assumption. They also probably looked at a fairly undeniable aspect of roster construction - regardless of his talent, Smith was not a good fit for the Braves. While he could be a more valuable player than either Matt Kemp or Nick Markakis - especially if he moved Ender Inciarte to a corner - Smith was not right for Atlanta when you consider how little power the team would have with Inciarte and Ozzie Albies joining Smith in the everyday lineup presumably at some point. While I did like what Smith could provide in a fourth outfielder/defensive caddy/late inning substitution role, it would have muted his potential value simply because the nature of the roster was against him.

It's a bonus that the Braves acquired a player of Gohara's stature, though. Further, this trade opened up a pair of spots on the 40-man roster without losing talent for nothing. That gives Braves general manager John Coppolella increased flexibility to make a move both via trade and free agency, which has seen the market crash for several 2-to-5-win players. They might be willing to accept some bargain prices and not having to worry about the 40-man roster only makes that easier.

This trade is not too dissimilar from another trade from earlier this offseason. Like Smith, Tyrell Jenkins was a well-liked youngster who was one of the first building blocks for a rebuilding team two years ago. And then, without an inkling of a rumor, Jenkins was traded. Since then, we have seen Jenkins' believed value plummet. I don't see the same thing happening to Smith, but Jenkins' case might be a good reminder that our objectivity in regards to our favorite team's prospects is often skewed. Smith has a good chance to have a solid major league career, but was he going to be a difference maker? It's unlikely. The same can be said for Simmons. While Gohara is a lot further away than those two, the Braves continued to side with upside over depth. It's a big reason the front office has remade this farm system into a talent-rich cadre of players and Gohara - and Burrows - only enhances that.

5-pack of Minor League Signings

With things simmering down as far as player acquisitions go, it is probably a good time to finish off the remaining reviews for minor league free agents that have been added to the Braves this offseason. This is the fourth edition of these reviews and each of those links can be found at the bottom of this article.

As always, you can see an updated list of comings-and-goings for minor league free agents.

Alay Lago, IF, 25 years-old

Born in Cuba, Lago didn't play much from 2010-2014 as a member of four teams in Cuba's premier league. A middle infielder, he defected from the island after 2014, but didn't warrant a lot of attention from major league organizations after performing in player showcases for scouts. Last February, he signed with Rojos del Aguila de Veracruz out of the Mexican League as he sought to build more interest.

A regular at third base, Lago struggled to reach base (.282) and was charged with 8 errors at third base before his season ended in May with a suspension for stanozolol and metabolites. There's not a lot of available information about Lago and what exists for the right-handed hitter hasn't been impressive to this point. If he breaks camp with a team, I have to imagine he'll be in Florida with the new Fire Frogs. That said, this was a curious signing. As is the case with two more free agent signings in this recap, sometimes the results won't be all that important if the right scout or person is vouches for you. I have to assume that's what happened with Lago.

Navery Moore, RHP, 26 years-old

This was one of the most interesting low-key signings of the entire offseason for me if only because the Braves brought back a former intriguing arm. Moore had a mid-90's fastball in high school, but his arm went kaput and the Vanderbilt commit would go under the knife. His arm was still so good that the Red Sox used a 26th rounder on him in 2008, but he went to Vandy and eventually became their closer. Three years later, the Braves picked him in the 14th round. A late signee, Moore would not pitch until that year's Arizona Fall League.

In 2012, Moore made his full-season debut and over the next two years, the righty worked as a starter as the Braves tried to get him to develop his secondary pitches. After being shutdown for most of the summer in 2013, Moore got one more shot to impress and for the third consecutive year, couldn't climb out of A-ball. The Braves released him after the year and over the next two seasons, he pitched in independent baseball for Joliet and Southern Maryland. Now 26, Moore will get a second chance to impress the Braves, who must have seen something they liked to try again with the flamethrower.

By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Eric O'Flaherty, LHP, 32 years-old

It seems like ages ago that O'Flaherty was part of the Holy Trinity of Braves relievers. Between 2009-13, O'Flaherty had a 3.16 FIP and 1.99 ERA over 295 games. Since then, though, he pitched for two other squads, failed to make the Pirates team coming out of spring training last year, and came back to Atlanta where he significantly underwhelmed. In addition to his struggles on the field, he spent time on the DL with a knee injury and a balky left elbow. When the latter happened, we found out he had been trying to pitch through some known issues.

Here's the good news, if there is any. If the southpaw is over those issues, we'll know pretty quick by watching his fastball. Last year, his sinker failed to drop at least nine inches in horizontal movement for the first time since '09. His four-seamer saw an even more drastic fall - in that it didn't fall much, but straighten. A groundball pitcher, O'Flaherty lives off getting hitters to swing over his pitch and smash it into the ground. At his beast, he was getting 2.5 to nearly 4 groundballs to every flyball. Last year, that was down to 1.9 and that doesn't tell the whole story, either. When O'Flaherty was right, hitters were so fooled at the plate or tried to elevate the ball so much that they popped the ball up a bunch. Between 2010-13, O'Flaherty had an infield pop-up rate of 11.5%, comparable at the time to teammate Craig Kimbrel. During the same time period, among relievers with 170 innings thrown, only Mariano Rivera had a higher rate of softly hit batted balls.

But this is 2017, you say. You're right. I'm putting on my Holy Optimism, Batman! hat here and looking at the positives. Maybe O'Flaherty is a 4.18 SIERA guy now rather than a sub-3.00 SIERA guy he was at times during his first run with the Braves. However, the Braves are better able to deal with that if it unfortunately is the truth. Last year, the Braves needed O'Flaherty because their options were pretty slim. Now, with Paco Rodriguez potentially joining Ian Krol, the Braves are in a better position to just move on if O'Flaherty once again struggles. Here's hoping his performance makes the Braves have to make a pretty hard decision.

David Richardson, RHP, 26 years-old

Drafted out of Hillsborough Community College in Tampa, Florida all the way back in 2010, last season was a year of firsts for Richardson. It was the first year he ever threw more than 61.1 innings in a single season and it was also the first time he reached Double-A. And that's pretty much all there is to say about last season for Richardson.

Once a highly thought-of outfielder, Richardson has done nothing but pitch for the Orioles. Information on him is pretty minimal, which is kind of expected from a guy who has never been much of a prospect and mostly logged time in the lower minor leagues as a reliever. His strikeout rate has been decent, though unspectacular, while his FIP has been in the 3.50-3.75 range most years. Richardson is the type of pitcher who likely caught a scout's eye, though without a strong spring, he might be cut before appearing in his first official game with the system.

By KamenG [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Jordan Walden, RHP, 29 years-old

Old Hoppy is back in the fold and it's time to remember just how dominant Walden was before injuries derailed him. Over 243 career games, Walden has a 10.8 K/9 and 3.9 BB/9 along with a 2.76 FIP/3.27 xFIP/2.92 SIERA. Basically, he has been really good when he's been able to stay on the mound - something he was not able to do with the Cardinals. He missed most of 2015 with shoulder issues and never threw a meaningful pitch in 2016 due to recurring shoulder problems and a grade 2 lat strain. Will he be healthy? Well, there is a reason why he came dirt cheap. Until we see him pitch regularly, we can't know if he is healthy and/or can stay that way.

Walden was a perfect, sound pick-up by the Braves. Obviously, they invested precious little to find out if Walden is close to being back. If the answer is yes, they have a cheap high-leverage arm who posted a 2.80 FIP as a Brave. Such a finding could make the Braves better able to compete for a playoff spot or repackage Walden for a future asset at the deadline. Smart teams make smart signings and there is no doubt that throwing some peanuts at Walden is a really smart signing.

That finishes off the minor league signings recap. If the Braves add more free agents on minor league deals, I'll likely recap them individually.

For more minor league free agent recaps, click below.
November 27, December 4, December 19, December 31, or check here for the complete rundown.

Will January Bring a Big Piece for the Braves?

K. Johnson, Spring 2016 By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

January is typically a time where baseball teams are thinking depth. Last January, Atlanta signed Jhoulys Chacin, Kyle Kendrick, Alexi Ogando, and Kelly Johnson in January. The year before, they traded for Manny Banuelos, Ricardo Sanchez, and signed Kelly Johnson. I'm just saying there is a theme and it includes signing Kelly Johnson. Who is currently a free agent. Again, I'm just saying.

Moving along, January of 2015 also had a big move - the Mike Foltynewicz/Rio Ruiz for Evan Gattis trade. Such a big deal relatively late in the process made me wonder - how rare is it to have a potentially franchise-altering move in January?

Well, two years before the Gattis move, the Braves put the finishing touches on the seven-player mega deal that brought Justin Upton to the Braves in January of 2013. In 2009, the Braves signed both Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami to large free agent failures contracts in the first month of the new year. And in 2007, Atlanta traded Adam LaRoche to the Pirates for Mike Gonzalez. Finally, January of 2002 was a big one and not just because the Braves traded for Kevin Gryboski. Three days before that, they acquired Gary Sheffield.

Most of the time, however, January is a month for finishing touches to the roster. It's a month where you sign George Sherrill to shore up your bullpen or add a stopgap first baseman like Robert Fick or Troy Glaus. When the aforementioned franchise-altering move does happen, it generally is a result of a long negotiation that finally ended in January.

Will this be a quiet January or a surprising one with a big free agent signing or trade acquisition? I must lean toward the former. While a formal budget is not public, Cot's Baseball Contracts estimates that the Braves have committed $110M toward this year's roster. After you add in non-arbitration players, you are looking at around $120 million in payroll. That would be a significant climb over last year's opening day roster ($87M according to Cot's) and around $8 million more than their previous opening day high set in 2014.

Of course, the new ballpark plays a big role here. In 2010, the aptly named newballpark.org found that a new stadium gives a team, on average, the ability to increase payroll by 14% hike. The Braves will blow past that finding if they open the year with a $120 million opening day roster. That would come out to about a 38% increase in payroll from 2016 (according to Cot's). Of course, many have made the convincing argument that the opening day roster in 2016 was intentionally low to spend more richly on amateurs via the draft ($15M or so) and international market (another $15M or so).

Also likely to keep the Braves from spending richly this January is the fact that it's tough to find room for added talent. In mid-December, after the winter meetings concluded, I previewed the 25-man roster. What became very clear was how packed this roster is with options at nearly every position. Aside from catcher, where there is a clear battle between two players to become next year's backup, it's tough to find a potential roster battle where they isn't already five or more players competing for a spot. To add more talent to the mix would only make it even more difficult for the team to award a player with a spot on the roster following a big spring.

Further, considering the hefty prices teams have paid this offseason in trades and for free agents, should the Braves be targeting a big addition anyway?

Nevertheless, here I am - looking at Matt Wieters again. It's been a long offseason for the former Orioles backstop. Baltimore not only passed on giving Wieters a qualifying offer for a second consecutive year, they decided to move on. The Minnesota Twins opted for Jason Castro for $24.5 million rather than show interest in Wieters. Wilson Ramos received a make-good $12.5 million contract. The Nationals traded for Derek Norris.

Other teams seem like potential fits for the catcher, including the Rockies and Diamondbacks, but the one team that has seemed like the logical spot for Wieters during the whole process has been Atlanta. As an up-and-coming team with a less-than-ideal catching situation, the Braves seem like the perfect squad to buy a Wieters lottery ticket.

Of course, much of that is due to Wieters being a southeast guy. He was born in South Carolina and became a star at Georgia Tech. So, theoretically, that makes him destined to play for the Braves at some point. Could that some point be in 2017? It's certainly possible, but realistically, a lot will have to happen to get to that point.

The Braves will essentially need a major bargain with a short-term commitment, possibly just one year. Put yourself in Wieters' shoes for a second. Ignoring everything about how you think Atlanta might finish in 2017, there is a one major problem that might make you shy away from playing in Atlanta. This season will be the first year of SunTrust Park. While there are many theories about how the park will play for hitters, do we really know? Even with the geographic advantages of playing closer to his childhood home and his old college stomping grounds, the thought of an unknown variable like how SunTrust will play has to weigh on Wieters' mind.

In addition, the Braves will have to look at the cons that come with Wieters. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Wieters has slashed .253/.309/.414 with a .312 wOBA and 93 wRC+. This is particularly troublesome when you consider his defense - once a calling card - has eroded considerably.

Wieters was once one of the top figures in rSB, or Stolen Base Runs Above Average. That's a long-winded way of saying that rSB looks at how successful the catcher was, compared to the average, at preventing stolen bases. Tyler Flowers was a -7 last year. Wieters was a 0 - or straight up average. That's exactly where he was in 2015 when he came back from injury. To be fair, his numbers started to fall in 2013 and cratered in 2014 before he went under the knife. In terms of DRS, we see a similar fall from grace. Between 2010-12, Weiters had 40 DRS. Since? -8.

And then, there is pitch framing. Since 2012, Wieters has finished below average in each year. Last year, among catchers who received at least 3000 pitches, Wieters finished 38th - right behind A.J. Pierzynski. Teams have gotten the memo over the last few years and now believe that catching defense and pitch framing metrics have a lot of value. Castro didn't get $25 million because of his bat after all.

Despite all of his cons, could the Braves and Wieters match up and could Atlanta go for the rare big January deal? Certainly, but Wieters (and his super agent Scott Boras) will have to accept that the team will be getting what they want more so than the player. He's going to have to take a considerable pay cut to come to Atlanta. When I say considerable, I do mean considerable. Wieters played for nearly $16 million last year. He'll likely have to accept about half of that. Meanwhile, Wieters will have to know that the Braves already have a catcher they like in Flowers and were only signing Wieters because he fell into their lap at the last second. That means the Braves will likely give Flowers a good deal of playing time and with the latter's defensive metrics, the time share may resemble a platoon.

So why sign Wieters at all, you might ask? Because there is a chance in the right situation that his bat plays up once again. While Wieters never reached the hype he had when he reached the majors, he still slashed .265/.319/.420 his first 657 games in the majors - a good slash for any catcher. That includes a .322 wOBA and 97 wRC+. In 514 career games, Flowers has a .232/.302/.384 triple slash with a .303 wOBA and 88 wRC+. Of course, since 2013, Flowers has been better than Wieters at the plate, but the latter still has some promise.

In the end, a love connection between the Braves and Wieters doesn't seem likely. One has to think that the Rockies, Diamondbacks, or another squad I haven't mentioned will send Wieters a better one-year offer than the Braves would be comfortable with. But as the Braves move through the first month, if they are going to strike it big, the smart money is on gambling on Wieters right now.

Your Super Early 2017-2018 Free Agency Preview

Let's face it - this winter's free agent class is horrendous. Two of the biggest deals signed so far have went to closers and only one starter has received a contract of over two years in length. The Braves have dipped their toes into the free agency market, but only on short-term veterans that, while they improve the team, are not long-term difference makers.

Could that change next winter? Well, the available players increases dramatically in quality, that's for sure. Let's take a look at the market.

By Thomson20192 [CC BY-SA 2.0] via Flickr

Catcher - Jonathan Lucroy will turn 32 a little more than two months into his next contract. Could that contract be a pact with the Braves? If you weren't aware, Lucroy has quietly become the best catcher in baseball not named Buster Posey. Much of the lack of hype was due to playing for Milwaukee, but now, he's got a chance to play a year for a contending Rangers club before hitting free agency where he'll look for one more big deal. Atlanta has been linked to him in trade rumors before and certainly would be intrigued by the idea of acquiring him next offseason - especially since the punishment for signing a player that receives a qualifying offer is much less severe. However, will the Braves be a little turned off by his age? I imagine if he has a healthy 2016 and doesn't extend his contract with the Rangers, the Braves will be one of his top suitors next winter.

Third Base - Royals third sacker Mike Moustakas had an injury derail him in almost the worst season - having it happen this year would be worse because he hits free agency next winter. Nevertheless, "Moose" enters his final year of arbitration with a chance to earn a big deal even if it's not from the Royals. After a mostly underwhelming four-year run after his callup in 2011, Moustakas slashed .284/.348/.470 in 2015 with 22 HR, a .353 wOBA, and a 122 wRC+. His defense has never graded below average and provided he rebounds from a torn ACL last year, he could solidify third base for the Braves. Granted, many will argue that it won't be needed with Travis Demeritte, Rio Ruiz, and Austin Riley maturing in the minors. Oh, and there's that Kevin Maitan guy. All of that is true, but if Moose is healthy, he's a first-division player at his position rather than a prospect who possesses the skills and potential to become one.

By Terry Foote [CC BY-SA 4.0] via Wikipedia Commons

Outfield - While the Braves would have to make a move to open up a spot, there are some good outfielders on the market next year that might prompt Atlanta to be active. J.D. Martinez has proven over the last three seasons that he's a force at the plate. Defensively, he looked horrid last year according to the metrics, which helped to explain how he went from 9 fWAR the previous two years to just 1.8. That low defensive component might be soft and he could flip it. He doesn't turn 30 until August and posted a .384 wOBA last year. Lorenzo Cain needs a bounceback season, but has been worth 16.3 fWAR over the last four seasons. A center fielder by trade, he would either move to a corner slot or prompt an Ender Inciarte trade. Shockingly, Carlos Gonzalez will only be 32 when his next contract begins. While there are questions regarding his away numbers the last few years - plus a number of injuries - CarGo can be an impact addition to someone's lineup. Might it be Atlanta's?

The Rotation - This year's market was saturated with rotation depth like Jason Hammel and Rich Hill, but not much else. That helped to produce interest in trading for Chris Sale and others. Next year's market won't have the same problem. Jake Arrieta and Yu Darvish will garner a lot of attention around the league. Danny Duffy finally settled into a starter role last year and will be under 30 when his next contract begins. Potential bounceback options like Clay Buchholz and Alex Cobb could be line for a big payday if they have a solid 2017. The market could also increase if a quartet of pitchers with opt-outs in Wei-Yin Chen, Johnny Cueto, Ian Kennedy, and Masahiro Tanaka test the market. With the new CBA's more forgiving rules regarding signing pitchers who receive a qualifying offer, starting pitchers are poised to receive a number of mega deals next offseason. Could the Braves be one of the teams dishing out a contract?

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0] via Flickr

The Bullpen - Going big in next year's reliever market would go against the recent philosophy of the Braves to build the bullpen with a wealth of cheap power arms. Next year's market isn't great, either. Tyler Clippard has a 4.24 FIP and a 3.22 ERA the last two seasons with 18 homeruns allowed. Something has to break there for the soon-to-be 32 year-old. Steve Cishek flamed out with the Marlins, but had a good year with the Mariners last season. Another solid season will have the 30 year-old ready to cash in on a nice contract. Bryan Shaw was part of the trio of arms the Indians used early-and-often in the playoffs to make up for a questionable starting rotation. That said, his last two seasons were weaker than the two seasons before in FIP, HR/9, and K/BB. Pedro Strop has quietly been a very solid reliever for the Cubs over the last 3+ seasons (2.68 ERA, 2.82 FIP, 11 K/9, 3.2 K/BB). As for lefties, Jake McGee was a superb reliever for the Rays, but last January's trade to the Rockies hurt him considerably. Could be worth a flyer even if he has a bad season as a one-year, shoot-for-the-stars candidate. Tony Watson was homer-prone last year for the first time in his career and his 2014 dominance was short-lived. Still, lefties have a career .266 OBP against him. On the higher end side, Wade Davis might be shut out of a big deal that other closers got this offseason because so few teams will be hunting.

Did I miss a free agent? Well, there's Shohei Otani, but paying for him is going to require robbing Fort Knox and while I'm not saying that's a deal breaker, I'm also saying there's probably about a 55-60% chance of that not happening. Who else would make a good fit? Peruse this link from MLB Trade Rumors and let me know.