Braves TJ Victims

(Here is Ryan Cothran's third piece for Walk-Off Walk. Soon enough, he's going to have to get his own account working here at WOW :) His first piece, which was an analysis into BABIP, can be found here. In addition, his second piece, which discussed recent bullpen improvements and what's coming up the chain, can be found here. Remember to follow Ryan on twitter.)

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

I’ve been a can’t waiter for years. I’m no longer going to be a can’t waiter. For the sake of my sanity, I can’t be a can’t waiter. What is a can’t waiter, you might ask? I guess I could assume you can’t wait to know. Well, I can’t wait to tell you.

A can’t waiter is an individual that looks at the Minor League teams of which he/she roots for, scours the roster, finds players that are having serious success, pines for said players to receive call-ups immediately, and talks daily how they can’t wait to see them kicking butt in the MLB like it’s a given that they’ll:

• Stay Healthy  
• Dominate the best baseball players in the world as much as they’ve dominated lesser players (although much better than anyone who’ll likely read this, your’s truly included).

Of the 2 listed above, the Braves have taken an extreme gamble by rolling the dice on (A) in their acquisitions/signings.  When I was writing for Tomahawk Take, I noticed a serious trend of the Braves signing/acquiring players that were either recovering at the time from Tommy John surgery, hadn’t made it back to the field from setbacks from Tommy John, or hadn’t found the success they were seeing prior to going down with injury.  I called it the Braves form of Moneyball, and you can click to see the old article.

*Disclaimer: Let it be known that aside from roster spots, a small chunk of change, and patience out the WAZOO, this gamble has been relatively small in terms of players traded and risks involved. 

At the time, it seemed really smart. Most of MLB teams weren’t in a place to offer these guys guaranteed money, give them a 40-man spot, or go through the bumps that comes with pitchers pitching back to form.  I thought it was brilliant!  In hindsight, it hasn’t worked out in most cases.  It was a gamble that others weren’t taking and with a rebuild in-tow, it was worth giving it a shot.

On Twitter, there have been many to poke fun at the Mets and their lacking ability to keep their pitchers on the field.  The Braves haven’t been much better. Their own list is VAST! While many of these didn’t succumb to injury while pitching for the Braves, it doesn’t negate the fact the we as Braves fans should not wag tongues or point fingers.  Here is a likely incomplete list of pitchers that have been in the organization in the last 5-6 years and have had the surgery:

Players that have been in Braves Organization and had Tommy John Surgery

Current Major Leaguers

• Jason Grilli - TJ surgery early in his career and came back a stronger and more efficient pitcher. 
• *Arodys Vizcaino
• Eric O’Flaherty - hasn’t been same since 2013 surgery.  70 innings total, but 40 innings of bad baseball with the Braves
• Alex Wood - traded in 2015, injured most of ‘16, and pitching brilliantly currently with Dodgers
• Jason Motte - TJ in 2013, has pitched mediocre baseball since return. Been pitching well lately.
• Sam Freeman - TJ in 2010, has had mixed results, although I’m not sure it’s related to TJ. Has been pitching brilliantly the last few weeks.
• Peter Moylan - Had TJ surgery in 2008, was effective for the next 3 years in a Braves uniform. Has struggled lately with the Royals.

Current Minor Leaguers

• *Manny Banuelos
• *Josh Outman
• Brandon Beachy - 8 innings in MLB since with 7.88 ERA
• Kris Medlen - 82 innings in MLB since with 5.99 ERA, but had a dominant outing with the Florida Fire Frogs a few days back.
• Jonny Venters - 3 TJ surgeries (maybe 4?) no MLB innings since 1st surgery
• *Andrew McKirahan
• *Jesse Biddle
• *Max Fried
• *AJ Minter
• Brady Feigl- traded, pitching well in High-A for Texas
• *Jacob Lindgren
• Chris Withrow - released mysteriously, but hasn’t made it back to field. 37.2 innings of decent relief.
• Shae Simmons - briefly pitched in Atlanta last year, traded.
• *Daniel Winkler
• David Peterson - Had TJ surgery in 2013, has had relative success in the Braves minor league system.

Retired Major Leaguers

• Billy Wagner - Had TJ surgery in 2008, came back dominant in Boston and then Atlanta
• Tim Hudson - TJ surgery in 2008, pitched effectively for rest of his career.

Not currently affiliated with any team

• Michael Kohn - Had TJ surgery in 2012, other arm injuries have kept him from contributing.
• *Paco Rodriguez
• Mark Lamm - Had TJ surgery, never made it to MLB and was last pitching in the Indy Leagues

Notice the players with asterisks and lack of breakdown? Know what they represent?  They’re some of the source of the “can’t waiters” happiness. These players were either bought low on due to injury or drafted low due to injury. They had big ceilings at one point and lost their luster due to injury. But should we be putting stock into these guys? Let’s dissect a bit…

Man, I can’t wait til we see *insert recovering flamethrower*

Manny Banuelos - When the trade went down, it was looked at as a landslide win for the Braves. Now? Manny is no longer with the Braves being DFA’d at the end of 2016. Meanwhile, Chasen Shreve has been part of the Yankees bullpen the last 3 years, pitching over 100 innings with a mid-3s ERA. All the while our left-handed relief pitching has been a dumpster fire for those 3 years.

Paco Rodriguez - Was a bit of a throw-in in what is likely to go down as the worst trade of Coppy’s tenure. Was recovering from Tommy John when acquired and spent time rehabbing. After looking fair in 2017 Spring Training, he was released and word was leaked that he had poor work ethic.

Arodys Vizcaino - Acquired from the Yankees, traded to the Cubs, re-acquired from the Cubs, Vizzy has pitched 86.2 innings of good baseball out of the Braves bullpen, but has had his fair share of injuries along the way and hasn’t totaled 40 innings in either of the 2 full years since acquisition, granted the first year was due to an 80-game suspension.  He’s been pitching lights out lately.

Josh Outman - Gifted with an ideal surname for a pitcher, Outman was a buy-low project prior to the 2015 season due to 2014 Tommy John surgery and thought likely to break the Braves 25-man roster. He ended up pitching 8.2 innings in the Minors and had shoulder issues nearly the entire year.

Andrew McKirahan - Claimed from the Marlins and already down a Tommy John surgery, McK got busted for cheating, returned and pitched poorly for the Braves in 2015, then re-ripped his UCL, and hasn’t pitched since mid-2015. He's currently in the Reds organization after an offseason trade.

By Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff

Jesse Biddle - Had Tommy John surgery in 2015 and was claimed by the Braves in March of 2016 by the Pirates. He’s now pitching meaningful games in Mississippi with mixed results.

Max Fried - Acquired from the Padres in the Justin Upton deal, Fried was recovering from Tommy John surgery and was deemed recovered at the end of the 2016 season. Down the stretch, he was absolutely dominant but has struggled with consistency in 2017 which is very common the first year after Tommy John.

Daniel Winkler - A personal favorite of mine (but this was when I was all-in on the strategy of acquiring Tommy John guys and stashing them) pitched 4 innings in MLB between ‘15&’16 before breaking his elbow AFTER he’d already rehabbed from Tommy John. He's a rule-5er so he has to stay on the 25-man roster unless he’s on the DL. Currently, he’s still at extended Spring Training strengthening.

A.J. Minter - Would’ve been drafted early in 1st round had it not been for blowing out his elbow pre-draft. He’s had some flare-ups in the elbow area and other ailments that are apparently non-elbow related. Still, he’s only pitched 1 inning this year and remains out with no timetable set on his return.

Jacob Lindgren - Pitched with the Yankees, blew out his elbow, then they tried to sneak him through waivers. He was picked up by the Braves and will miss the entire 2017 season. He, like Minter, are key “can’t waiters” in the organization.

Has this strategy paid off for the Braves Front-office?

What is the expectation? In essence, I guess one can say that most of these guys were/are lottery tickets and anything gained is just gravy (examples: La Stella/Vizzy+INT slot money, Winkler in the Rule 5), but some cost real players (Fried/Man-Ban/Paco), roster spots (Winkler/McK), and high-draft choices (Minter). Thus far,  Man-Ban DFA’d, Paco released, Outman out, McK cheated then re-broke himself then was released, and Winkler rehabbed then broke elbow again.

The only success story that has played out in the bigs has been Vizzy and he’s not been a guy that a manager can give the ball to 70 times a year. Hopefully, this changes this year and we can reflect on the Tommy John Survivor strategy as a positive one.

Obviously, we have yet to see Minter, Lindgren, Fried, and Biddle, and there’s still a chance that Winkler can come back and be a force out of the bullpen, but we as fans need to be cautious when our expectation of these guys is that they’ll be healthy AND dominant.  It’s just not that simple.

A Piece of Advice for Myself

Pitching health in today’s game is so fickle. Pitching health after suffering a major injury, undergoing major surgery, and grinding through an extensive rehab is a crapshoot.  When it comes to these guys, we as fans might benefit by looking at them as luxuries rather than unequivocal future pieces. Be excited about these guys, watch them grow as pitchers, root for them to stay healthy, but learn from my mistakes and refrain from putting them in the category of “Can’t Wait” guys. Rather, leave them in a separate chamber of your heart that is more accustomed to heartbreak.

Thanks for reading! Go Braves!

Will January Bring a Big Piece for the Braves?

K. Johnson, Spring 2016 By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

January is typically a time where baseball teams are thinking depth. Last January, Atlanta signed Jhoulys Chacin, Kyle Kendrick, Alexi Ogando, and Kelly Johnson in January. The year before, they traded for Manny Banuelos, Ricardo Sanchez, and signed Kelly Johnson. I'm just saying there is a theme and it includes signing Kelly Johnson. Who is currently a free agent. Again, I'm just saying.

Moving along, January of 2015 also had a big move - the Mike Foltynewicz/Rio Ruiz for Evan Gattis trade. Such a big deal relatively late in the process made me wonder - how rare is it to have a potentially franchise-altering move in January?

Well, two years before the Gattis move, the Braves put the finishing touches on the seven-player mega deal that brought Justin Upton to the Braves in January of 2013. In 2009, the Braves signed both Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami to large free agent failures contracts in the first month of the new year. And in 2007, Atlanta traded Adam LaRoche to the Pirates for Mike Gonzalez. Finally, January of 2002 was a big one and not just because the Braves traded for Kevin Gryboski. Three days before that, they acquired Gary Sheffield.

Most of the time, however, January is a month for finishing touches to the roster. It's a month where you sign George Sherrill to shore up your bullpen or add a stopgap first baseman like Robert Fick or Troy Glaus. When the aforementioned franchise-altering move does happen, it generally is a result of a long negotiation that finally ended in January.

Will this be a quiet January or a surprising one with a big free agent signing or trade acquisition? I must lean toward the former. While a formal budget is not public, Cot's Baseball Contracts estimates that the Braves have committed $110M toward this year's roster. After you add in non-arbitration players, you are looking at around $120 million in payroll. That would be a significant climb over last year's opening day roster ($87M according to Cot's) and around $8 million more than their previous opening day high set in 2014.

Of course, the new ballpark plays a big role here. In 2010, the aptly named newballpark.org found that a new stadium gives a team, on average, the ability to increase payroll by 14% hike. The Braves will blow past that finding if they open the year with a $120 million opening day roster. That would come out to about a 38% increase in payroll from 2016 (according to Cot's). Of course, many have made the convincing argument that the opening day roster in 2016 was intentionally low to spend more richly on amateurs via the draft ($15M or so) and international market (another $15M or so).

Also likely to keep the Braves from spending richly this January is the fact that it's tough to find room for added talent. In mid-December, after the winter meetings concluded, I previewed the 25-man roster. What became very clear was how packed this roster is with options at nearly every position. Aside from catcher, where there is a clear battle between two players to become next year's backup, it's tough to find a potential roster battle where they isn't already five or more players competing for a spot. To add more talent to the mix would only make it even more difficult for the team to award a player with a spot on the roster following a big spring.

Further, considering the hefty prices teams have paid this offseason in trades and for free agents, should the Braves be targeting a big addition anyway?

Nevertheless, here I am - looking at Matt Wieters again. It's been a long offseason for the former Orioles backstop. Baltimore not only passed on giving Wieters a qualifying offer for a second consecutive year, they decided to move on. The Minnesota Twins opted for Jason Castro for $24.5 million rather than show interest in Wieters. Wilson Ramos received a make-good $12.5 million contract. The Nationals traded for Derek Norris.

Other teams seem like potential fits for the catcher, including the Rockies and Diamondbacks, but the one team that has seemed like the logical spot for Wieters during the whole process has been Atlanta. As an up-and-coming team with a less-than-ideal catching situation, the Braves seem like the perfect squad to buy a Wieters lottery ticket.

Of course, much of that is due to Wieters being a southeast guy. He was born in South Carolina and became a star at Georgia Tech. So, theoretically, that makes him destined to play for the Braves at some point. Could that some point be in 2017? It's certainly possible, but realistically, a lot will have to happen to get to that point.

The Braves will essentially need a major bargain with a short-term commitment, possibly just one year. Put yourself in Wieters' shoes for a second. Ignoring everything about how you think Atlanta might finish in 2017, there is a one major problem that might make you shy away from playing in Atlanta. This season will be the first year of SunTrust Park. While there are many theories about how the park will play for hitters, do we really know? Even with the geographic advantages of playing closer to his childhood home and his old college stomping grounds, the thought of an unknown variable like how SunTrust will play has to weigh on Wieters' mind.

In addition, the Braves will have to look at the cons that come with Wieters. Since returning from Tommy John surgery, Wieters has slashed .253/.309/.414 with a .312 wOBA and 93 wRC+. This is particularly troublesome when you consider his defense - once a calling card - has eroded considerably.

Wieters was once one of the top figures in rSB, or Stolen Base Runs Above Average. That's a long-winded way of saying that rSB looks at how successful the catcher was, compared to the average, at preventing stolen bases. Tyler Flowers was a -7 last year. Wieters was a 0 - or straight up average. That's exactly where he was in 2015 when he came back from injury. To be fair, his numbers started to fall in 2013 and cratered in 2014 before he went under the knife. In terms of DRS, we see a similar fall from grace. Between 2010-12, Weiters had 40 DRS. Since? -8.

And then, there is pitch framing. Since 2012, Wieters has finished below average in each year. Last year, among catchers who received at least 3000 pitches, Wieters finished 38th - right behind A.J. Pierzynski. Teams have gotten the memo over the last few years and now believe that catching defense and pitch framing metrics have a lot of value. Castro didn't get $25 million because of his bat after all.

Despite all of his cons, could the Braves and Wieters match up and could Atlanta go for the rare big January deal? Certainly, but Wieters (and his super agent Scott Boras) will have to accept that the team will be getting what they want more so than the player. He's going to have to take a considerable pay cut to come to Atlanta. When I say considerable, I do mean considerable. Wieters played for nearly $16 million last year. He'll likely have to accept about half of that. Meanwhile, Wieters will have to know that the Braves already have a catcher they like in Flowers and were only signing Wieters because he fell into their lap at the last second. That means the Braves will likely give Flowers a good deal of playing time and with the latter's defensive metrics, the time share may resemble a platoon.

So why sign Wieters at all, you might ask? Because there is a chance in the right situation that his bat plays up once again. While Wieters never reached the hype he had when he reached the majors, he still slashed .265/.319/.420 his first 657 games in the majors - a good slash for any catcher. That includes a .322 wOBA and 97 wRC+. In 514 career games, Flowers has a .232/.302/.384 triple slash with a .303 wOBA and 88 wRC+. Of course, since 2013, Flowers has been better than Wieters at the plate, but the latter still has some promise.

In the end, a love connection between the Braves and Wieters doesn't seem likely. One has to think that the Rockies, Diamondbacks, or another squad I haven't mentioned will send Wieters a better one-year offer than the Braves would be comfortable with. But as the Braves move through the first month, if they are going to strike it big, the smart money is on gambling on Wieters right now.

Braves Continue to Shoot for the Stars

On the first day of the 2015 calendar year, the Atlanta Braves packaged a pair of useful arms in David Carpenter and Chasen Shreve to acquire Manny Banuelos. A little more than a week later, the Braves sent pitcher Nate Hyatt and third baseman Kyle Kubitza to the Angels. Both players who could have potentially helped a bad Braves team in 2015, but the Braves wanted young left-hander Ricardo Sanchez.

Both trades - and there were others - were a sign that the Braves were willing to cash in high-floor guys for higher-ceiling, but riskier options. Yesterday, the Braves went to the well once more and packaged Robert Whalen and Max Povse for Alex Jackson, formerly of the Mariners' organization. A player to be named later will eventually also be sent from the Mariners. (Ed.: On 12/9/16, Tyler Pike was announced as the player to be named later. For more on him, click here.)

A right-handed outfielder, Jackson was the sixth overall selection of the 2014 draft. That alone makes this a bit of a surprise because the M's were so willing to cash him in. The young man turns 21 on Christmas and just finished a 92-game run with Clinton in the Midwest League (A-ball). While a catcher when he was at the prep level, Jackson has settled into right field since going pro. There are some who believe the Braves may try him again at catcher, but I tend to believe that with his offensive issues (I'll get to that), Atlanta won't try to add on with a move back behind the plate.

When the Braves picked Braxton Davidson 26 picks after Jackson in 2014, people graded Davidson's raw power potential as elite in that year's draft. It's worth remembering that Jackson was right there with him. Entering the draft, Baseball America named him the top position player available. In 135 games in high school, he crushed the opposition for a .375 batting average and 47 homeruns. He was on his way to the University of Oregon to pay baseball, but $4.2 million has a way to change people's minds.

To this point, we have seen a little of that raw power so many raved about (21 HR, .166 ISO), but too many strikeouts (223 in 793 PA). The Braves hope the switch to Atlanta's system will allow Jackson to start over. His swing has been tinkered with and needs even more work. It almost looks like he's fighting himself to get the barrel through the zone. He does show a decent eye at the plate (8.9 BB%) and had a .346 wOBA while playing in a hard park to hit homers as a right-handed batter (89 HR park factor over 3 years). According to Statcorner, his adjusted wOBA was 109, which means when you take into account league and park factors, his production was actually 9% above the average.

And remember...we are talking about a guy who had a bad year. And he did, but beyond the potential, there is some signs here that Jackson could be on the rise. Yes, his swing needs more work, but his line drive rate was up about 6% last year. His strikeout looking rate fell nearly 1%. He hit about 3% less pop-ups. By themselves, these stats tell us little, but taken collectively, they could - and I have to stress could - be a sign that he's "getting it" more than he did in 2015 and responding better to coaching.

But even if Jackson is a lottery ticket that doesn't become a winner, the Braves traded from a strength and didn't unload any top prospects. Max Povse is a personal favorite of mine because he's a freak of nature on the mound. He's a 6'8" behemoth who gets great sinking action with his low 90's fastball. It's tough to even locate the ball when he pitches because all you see is a mess of legs and arms come flying your direction as he cocks and delivers the ball. With his control and groundball tendencies, Povse would have also been a favorite of Roger McDowell, who stressed both.

Also headed to the Mariners is Robert Whalen, who I would classify as a maximizer in that he maximizes everything he has to try to get batters out. He's smart and not just because he's smart enough to realize he can't get by on a plus pitch or absurd stuff. Another groundball guy, Whalen throws a lot of pitches (a half-dozen of them) and knows when and how to use them.

That's a lot of praise for both pitchers and they deserve it. Both could help the Mariners in 2017. Here's the but, though. While both pitchers are prospects deserving of a look, neither rank highly both in terms of their respective placement among top pitching prospects in the system or rank highly in general compared to their minor league peers. To put it more bluntly, if all three reached their best case scenarios, the Braves traded a pair of 2 WAR pitchers for a batter capable of 4.5 WAR and then some. That's not to say any of the previous sentence happens and quite frankly, the better money is on Povse or Whalen posting 2 WAR versus Jackson posting All-Star worthy money.

But...there's a chance it could happen. The Braves followed the safe philosophy under Frank Wren where they valued high floors and depth over lottery tickets. John Coppolella and John Hart have proven that while depth is important, you gotta buy that lottery ticket every now and then. Sure, most will provide no return for your investment, but eventually, there's going to be a win and that, my friends, will be a game changer for this franchise.

Transaction Tuesday: Shae, Yepez, Minter, Banuelos

Many apologies for disappearing over the last week. A slew of other commitments propped up and pushed many of the things I enjoy - like this blog - to the side as I tried to be an adult. I hope to address many of the things I missed over the coming days like Fredi Gonzalez's dismissal, yesterday's trade with the Orioles, and continue my recap of the 5 Best and 5 Worst Drafts since 2000. To get back into the swing of things, here is this week's minor league transaction recap. I missed last week, but this won't be a supersized version. Instead, this will be all of the reported moves from May 17 to May 23.

Gwinnett Braves
Signed: Lucas Harrell...After looking like a pretty interesting middle-of-the-rotation piece in 2012, Harrell's career has went off the tracks. Part of that was due to Harrell being really hit-lucky in his Age-27 year. Did I say only part? Harrell is a groundball guy who spent last year in Korea. He depends on location and being stubborn on the mound - not entirely terrible things, but unlikely to help him get back into the majors without some serious luck.

Signed: Rob Wooten...Second go-around with the Braves just this season. Wooten may have been cut before to seek other employment opportunities and when he didn't find them, indicated he was open for a return assignment. Thoroughly unimpressive reliever.

Optioned: Aaron Blair...What we saw with major league Aaron Blair was a guy who nibbled - a lot. He was behind the count on 30% of his pitches, which is not an easy way to make a living. Pitching behind leads to a 74% contact rate on pitches outside the strikezone as hitters can zero in on where they want the pitch and even if it's a "ball," it's where they want it. Blair got away with it for awhile, but it's just not possible to keep pitching behind as major league hitters tee off pitches that they can guess with a reasonable amount of confidence that they will see - as his 32.5% line drive rate can attest.

Optioned: Manny Banuelos...With his assignment last week, Banuelos took the next step in getting back into the Braves' good graces after succombing to more injuries last year. It's been his M.O. during his nine-year career. Excite, get hurt. Excite, get hurt. He made one start with Rome on a "rehab" assignment before being curiously optioned a day later.

Optioned: Joel De La Cruz...Seriously, Atlanta. Stop calling him up unless you plan on using him. For the second time this season, Cruz was promoted to the majors only to sit in the bullpen for a short time before being sent back down. Now in his ninth year (if you don't count 2007-08 when he didn't pitch), Cruz has not been good at all for Gwinnett this year.

Optioned: John Gant...I've never been too high on Gant like others. He's a flyball pitcher who relies on his herky-jerky delivery a little too much over having the skill level to throw balls passed hitters. That works in the minors - not so much in the majors. He could be a decent long reliever, but expecting more would be a bit too much in my opinion.

Released: Sean Burnett...The southpaw badly wants back in the majors. When a run with the Dodgers didn't get him to the majors, he tried the Braves. Growing impatient, he now heads to the Twins organization in his quest to wear all of the AAA jerseys in one year. Burnett has looked good in AAA and honestly, I would have preferred him over Eric O'Flaherty, but the difference between the two probably isn't significant enough to care.

Mississippi Braves
Promoted: Levi Hyams...Short of a small run in Gwinnett of 12 PA, Hyams has been in Mississippi this year and was simply being returned to the team after a brief assignment with Danville. He's hit worse this year than he did last year (.365 wOBA - .267), but keeps getting work.

Promoted (to AAA) and Demoted: Victor Mateo...Organizational arm went to Gwinnett to give them an extra arm if need be, but quickly was demoted back to Mississippi, where he has a 4.76 ERA in 11.1 innings.

Demoted (to Danville) and Promoted: Michael O'Neal...An independent signing last offseason, O'Neal has played at times this year for Carolina to the tune of four runs in nine innings. Was brought up to Mississippi for an emergency start last week and was actually quite decent (4 ING, H, 2 BB, K). If he has a future big league career, it'll likely be as a left-hand specialist.

DL'd and Activated: Matt Kennelly...Has played in all of six games in this, his tenth season. Did hit his first homerun since 2013 with Gwinnett.

DL'd: Kyle Kinman...Second trip to the DL for Kinman this year. Over his last eight games, he has surrendered five hits, five walks, and struckout six over 8.1 innings. A lot was hoped for with Kinman this season, but it's been slow to get going.

Released: Steve Rodriguez...Picked up in the minor league portion of last year's Rule 5 draft, Rodriguez hit just .210 at Mississippi last year and was hitting .209 at the time he was released this year. In 74 games with the Braves' organization, he had just six extra-base hits - all doubles. To remember all that Rodriguez brought, feel free to read my recent Random Prospect profile on him.

Carolina 
Promoted: A.J. Minter...Atlanta really likes what they have seen from the 22 year-old second rounder who made his debut with Rome earlier this month. It's worth mentioning (again) that Minter only tossed 58 innings in college so what the Braves have right now is fully based on potential rather than results, though Minter definitely looked good with Rome (6 ING, 2 H, BB, 6 K). He made his Carolina League debut last week and struck out 4-of-6 batters he faced in the two-inning outing. The lefty has a chance to be a quick riser at this rate. The demotion of O'Neal (covered above) to Danville set the stage for Minter to join Carolina.

Rome
Promoted: Carlos Castro...With a slew of injuries leaving Rome short-handed, the team brought up Castro from the Danville roster. Castro spent two years in the Dominican before finally hitting in 2014. Atlanta finally brought him stateside and he slashed .319/.340/.412 with Danville last year. He's a bit too old, is a first baseman without power, and doesn't walk. Still, he should make the Rome lineup better and possibly show the team that when those injured players return, Castro shouldn't be returned to Danville.

Promoted: Trevor Belicek...His placement in Danville was only temporary. Belicek had been one of Rome's most dependable relievers and often gave the team multiple inning performances. His almost robotic control comes through impressively in his stats (28.1 ING, 1 BB, 32 K). That includes a three-inning stint with Mississippi in April. Belicek would be traded Monday to the Orioles.

Rehab Assignment: Shae Simmons...Simmons had already logged a pair of innings with Gwinnett, but with Gwinnett playing in Charlotte as his next rehab game was on tap, the Braves moved him down to Rome so that he could stay close to Atlanta. Most teams do something similar, but with two minor league teams so close to the parent squad, Atlanta is usually able to avoid any case of sending a rehabbing player on the road. As for the outing, Simmons had his cleanest inning. He needed just 11 pitches to send Augusta into the field. He struck out one and 7-of-11 pitches went for strikes with 3 looking. He's close - real close.

DL'd: Matt Tellor...He's struggling to stay healthy and hasn't hit much when healthy. Of 84 possible plate appearances, he has 2 doubles, a homer, one walk, and 32 strikeouts. He's 24.

DL'd: Juan Yepez...It was good to see Yepez get some reps at third base last week and the 18 year-old was handling himself okay before hitting the DL. Yepez is going to hit. It's his calling card. The dream was that he would do so as a third baseman, but that might be too much to ask for. As a 1B, his value decreases.

Danville
Demoted: Jose Ramirez...Just a means to get a live arm on the Gwinnett roster. Ramirez had thrown 46 pitches in a 2.2 inning outing against Charlotte on May 20, so a demotion to Danville gives him time to rest. He'll be back (possibly today or tomorrow).

GCL
No moves.

DSL
No moves.

First Game Analysis & Let's Talk About Who Has Options

First, I uploaded some quick analysis on the first game of spring training at atlantabraves.about.com. Highlights included Freddie Freeman's wrist, Hector Olivera's left field adventures, the rising status of Mauricio Cabrera and Rio Ruiz, and the future may be now (for a day) if both Dansby Swanson and Ozhaino Albies start tomorrow up the middle as expected.

Moving on, a particular tweet caught my attention.

Jose Ramirez hit 95 mph with a couple pitches during a scoreless fourth. He's the only player in Braves camp who is out of options.

— Mark Bowman (@mlbbowman) March 1, 2016

Now, first off, Bowman almost certainly misspoke here. "Only player in Braves camp who is out of options" is ridiculous and I'm sure it's not what Bowman meant. Clearly, several players - specifically most of the veterans who are in camp on minor league deals - are out of options. What Bowman probably meant to say is that Jose Ramirez is the only player on the 40-man roster who is part of a competition AND out of options.

Jose Ramirez - Rob Carr/Getty

But is he?

EDIT.......He was correct on the Ramirez front and the rest of my response was wrong. I am leaving it up so that you may mock me. Special thanks to Braves Options Guy on Twitter for providing me some clarification on some particulars that I missed. I should have investigated my claims further. I will be looking deeper into my Options list to see if I'm wrong on anymore players. You SHOULD absolutely follow Braves Options Guy on Twitter by visiting @BravesOptions. Sorry for any confusion that my post created. Again, feel free to mock me.

Maybe. Probably not, but maybe.

You may have noticed that I keep a fairly updated list of who has options above. You can compare my list with RosterResource.com and only one name is different if you remove, like I do, the non-roster invitees. Either way, we both arrive at a number higher than one. Both RosterResource.com and me agree that Ian Krol and Chris Withrow are out of options while I also add Manny Banuelos to my list. We, including Bowman, all concur on Ramirez. I do my research largely through looking at transaction lists (specifically searching for the word "(Team) option (Player) to (Wherever)"). With that in mind, let me go over how I arrive at my decision for each of the four players I had.

Manny Banuelos
1st Option: 3/11/13, Yanks Option Banuelos
2nd Option: 3/16/14, Yanks Option Banuelos
3rd Option: 3/27/15, Braves Option Banuelos

Ian Krol
1st: 8/21/13, Nats Option Krol
2nd: 7/31/14, Tigers Option Krol
3rd: 4/23/15, Tigers Option Krol

Jose Ramirez
1st: 3/11/13, Yanks Option Ramirez
2nd: 3/9/14, Yanks Option Ramirez
3rd: 3/21/15, Yanks Option Ramirez

Chris Withrow
1st: 3/15/12, Dodgers Option Withrow
2nd: 3/20/13, Dodgers Option Withrow
3rd: 5/21/14: Dodgers Option Withrow

So, theoretically, all four players are out of options. However...there is the mythical 4th option year for players who do not have at least five "full seasons" of professional experience. Here's a primer on this ultra-confusing addition and options in general...

"For the purpose of determining eligibility for a 4th minor league option, a player accrues a "full season" when he spends at least 90 days on the Active List of an MLB and/or minor league club or clubs in a given season, or (in seasons prior to 2012) spends at least 60 days but less than 90 days on the Active List of an MLB and/or minor league club or clubs followed by a Disabled List assignment where the combined time spent on the Active List and Disabled List equals at least 90 days or (beginning with the 2012 season) spends at least 30 days but less than 90 days on the Active List of an MLB and/or minor league club or clubs followed by a Disabled List assignment where the combined time spent on the Active List and Disabled List equals at least 90 days."

So, does any of the four I listed fit this description? First, let's look at Banuelos. He's been hurt. A lot. He missed all of 2013 and the little 90 day rule takes out his 2008 season, giving him six total years. 2012 could be a non-full season, though it appears to apply because he spent over a month on the Active Roster before going down for the rest of the year. Even without it, 2015 gave him five total full seasons and again, it's likely six. That eliminates any claim to a fourth option year. (this section edited for clarity/corrections)

As for the rest, Krol is much easier. He has spent the last six years largely healthy and above rookie ball (thus logging full seasons). It would be shocking to me to think Krol had an option left. We all agree on Ramirez and his case is simple as he has been above rookie ball since 2010 and healthy. He's out of options. In Withrow's case, he logged enough time above rookie ball since the 2009 season and I would say even though he missed half of 2014 with an injury, his options are gone as well.

Now...maybe I'm misreading this and Bowman's right, but it would appear to me that all four pitchers are out of options. Banuelos is the only one I'm on the fence over, but I'm almost 100% sure the other three are out of options.

This Week at AtlantaBraves.About.com

I've posted a lot of articles at my AtlantaBraves.About.com link as things start to get more active with spring training beginning. Here's a comprehensive list of the articles over the last week or so. All article links open to a new tab/window.

Braves Plan to Spend Big, but Not On Veteran Players
...Instead of pooling their funds together for a big free agent splash, the Atlanta Braves might be in the act of simply waiting to go big this July. Kevin Maitan, the prize of the international signing class, has been a target of Atlanta's for a long time now, but he's probably just the tip of the iceberg in what will be a huge international showing by the Braves. Read more.

Are the Atlanta Braves Tanking? That All Depends
...Is it fair to label a rebuilding project "tanking?" And what really is tanking? Is it the systematic effort to be awful for future gains in draft picks and payroll because, if not, can we really say that's what the Braves are doing? My deeper look into the subject pushes me to come to this resolution - the Braves are just being smart. Read more.

Who Are the Atlanta Braves' Top 5 Prospects?
...I ranked prospects from #50 to #6 here, but with the Top 5, I jumped to the other blog with deeper analysis on all five. Process of elimination means that the Top 5 is some mix of Ozhaino Albies, Kolby Allard, Aaron Blair, Sean Newcomb, and Dansby Swanson - but where do they rank? Read more.

3 Things About Gordon Beckham
...In more cross promotional connections between here and AtlantaBraves.About.com, the 3 Things series is a more biographical component to the Scouting Report series here. A few days ago, I posted Beckham's Scouting Report here on the same day as I posted 3 Things. Relive his college days where Beckham looked like a world beater, his short minor league career, and a major league career in which his first major league experience was also his best. Read more.

Jeff Francoeur Serves as Cautionary Tale
...One of the more talked-about signings of the offseason for the Braves may have been their final one. This week, the Braves brought "Frenchy" back on a minor league contract with an invitation to spring training. His return gives us a moment to take stock in how prospects will break your heart and even when they don't, it takes time. Read more.

Atlanta Braves Looking for Answers in the Rotation
...After reading this article, you can name three different starting staffs the Braves could technically go with in 2016 and never repeat a name. Julio Teheran is at the front and Bud Norris and Matt Wisler seem like they will be joining him, but the rest of the rotation is completely up in the air. Manny Banuelos, Mike Foltynewicz, Ryan Weber, and Williams Perez lead returning starters while Blair, Newcomb, and Tyrell Jenkins lead youngsters looking for a shot. And then, there is the minor league free agents like Jhoulys Chacin and Kyle Kendrick. The list is seemingly never ending. Read more.

Babe Ruth Comes Back to Boston as a Brave
...Typically, I do Transactions of Today here (and did one today about Jack Quinn), but when it comes to the Great Bambino, things are always a wee bit different. 81 years ago, Ruth joined the Braves after a bitter end with the Yankees. While Boston had hoped Ruth would be a big boost at the ticket counter, he was just a shell of his former self at this point and aside from magical May day, people were no longer seeing the Sultan of Swat. Read more.

That's it. Hoping this week will continue to be free enough for me to write another group of articles.

2016 Top 50 Prospects - #15-#6

For the past couple of weeks, I have looked at the start of the Top 50 list. I've ranked prospects #50 down to #16 so far and now you really start to see the elite prospects of this system. The next ten includes a pair of outfielders, two third basemen, and six pitchers. This section also includes my first grades better than a C+.

A couple of notes. My list does not include Derian Cruz or Christian Pache, the top prospects from last year's international class. Other blogs will include them, but unless the player has actually suited up, they don't make my list. If they did, Cruz would have been in the #10-#20 range with Pache likely in the Top 25 as well. Further, Hector Olivera and Dian Toscano are also not on my list. Even if they were young enough, so many years spent in Cuba's premier league would have kept them off. Finally, I am not a scout so take my rankings and grading system with the largest grain of salt. I believe in them, but acknowledge that other experts could disagree.

Previously Ranked: #50-#26, #25-#16

15. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Grade: C+

It wasn't exactly the season that either Ruiz or the Braves had in mind after he was acquired in the Evan Gattis trade last January. He was coming off a .293/.387/.436 slash with Lancaster (A+) as a 20 year-old and more power was expected. However, the Southern League is a bit tougher to hit in than the California League and Ruiz struggled to the tune of .233/.333/.324. It's worth noting that like many Braves prospects - especially hitters - Ruiz was pushed aggressively and had just eight plate appearances against pitchers younger than him. He also finished strong, hitting nearly .300 with 4 of his 5 HR after August 1. Another trip to Mississippi is likely in his future, though a strong spring could change things. I'm still a believer.

14. Chris Ellis, RHP, Grade: C+

Of the top prospects acquired this offseason, it's easy to forget about Ellis. A stout right-hander who was drafted in the 2014 third round out of Mississippi, Ellis has already started 15 games at AA and held his own. While he lacks the high-end talent of Sean Newcomb, who the Braves also acquired for Andrelton Simmons, Ellis had an impressive first full season of professional ball. Ellis is a breaking pitch away from being a prospect that could climb into the top 10 in no time. It's still amazing that the Angels gave up so much for Simmons. A great player, no doubt, but when you have so few prospects, surrendering Ellis and Newcomb remains a head scratcher.

13. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Grade: B-

Two things happened for Jenkins in 2015 that has never happened before in his previous three years since graduating rookie ball - he pitched above A-ball and he stayed pretty healthy. However, while there are things to like about the results, I am a bit slow to get too excited because the K/9 rate was the worst of his career and his walk rate went up. On the other hand, just staying healthy and on the mound was an accomplishment and could give us hope for better things to come. I'm still grading him on his potential and youth is on his side. Jenkins could be a breakthrough player in 2016.

12. Braxton Davidson, OF, Grade: B-

"But he only hit .242." Yes, random person, he did. At the age of 19 in the South Atlantic League. He also on-based .381 with the help of 84 walks and hit ten homers. Davidson will need to make more contact to avoid being a Cody Johnson, but I think he won't have that problem. Though he's only belted ten homers to this point, he has the raw power that could help him cruise past that total in 2016. The big question following Davidson has been whether or not he'll be able to stay in the outfield and while he probably won't be a world beater, he did enough to stick in right field last year and not completely embarrass himself. This is a good sign because his bat has more value in right field than at first base, which is considered his fallback destination. A challenge in Carolina awaits him and he won't turn 20 until June so struggles should be expected. Still...if he is able to turn it on, Davidson could be a difference maker in any lineup.

11. Austin Riley, 3B, Grade: B-

From intriguing prep pitching arm to one of the best hitting prospects in the system in a blink of an eye. After the draft, Riley spent 30 games each at the GCL level and with Danville and hammered 12 homers along the way with a .304/.389/.544 composite slash. Yes, it was only 252 PA and yeah, he struck out 65 times...but we're talking about a kid who doesn't turn 19 until April 2. It's difficult to rank Riley considering his relative inexperience, but it's hard not to push him toward the Top 10 with that kind of start. Now, the fun part begins - can he repeat his success in 2016? He joins a talent-rich Rome squad that should be exciting to watch and more eyeballs than normal will be on him. If he continues to hit, the sky is the limit for this kid.

10. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Grade: B

Is the clock starting to run out on Manny as a prospect? To a degree. He'll turn 25 in a month and started just professional career eight years ago. Injuries limited him considerably with 2016 marking the first season since 2011 that he threw at least a 100 innings. He also picked up his first shutout since 2011 as well while with Gwinnett, where he was excellent before earning a promotion to the majors. The results once promoted to the bigs started well, but the production declined before he was hurt and couldn't stay on the mound. Since injuries have taken some of his velocity, he's been relegated to a change-of-speed guy who will need to improve his location to be effective as a starter at the major league level. Still a shot he transitions into a decent LOOGY option down the line, but Atlanta will give him plenty of opportunity to be a rotation fixture first.

9. Mallex Smith, OF, Grade: B

It's easy to become overly excited about Mallex. The speed stands out at first, but its value increases when you look at Mallex's on-base skills. Over four seasons, he has a .380 OBP in the minors. But then you look at the power numbers and it's just as easy to be a bit discouraged. He had an .080 ISO last season, which is about his career norm so far. That gives him very little margin for error. It's difficult for an outfielder to post 4 WAR seasons without a .100 or better ISO. The walks help Mallex in this case and if he's able to improve his defense, which has only garnered okayish grades so far, he could definitely do that. In the end, Mallex needs all the things that he currently does to translate - hit for average, get walks, steal bases, stay in center. If any of these fade, his value is closer to 4th outfielder than the guy many are convinced will shift Ender Inciarte to left when he arrives this summer. Still, I like his chances to become a leadoff hitter in the majors much higher than Jose Peraza.

8. Max Fried, LHP, Grade: B+

At 22, Fried has just 147 innings of professional ball since the Padres made him the 7th overall pick of the 2012 draft. Even with that in mind, there are likely a few organizations out there where Fried would be their top pitching prospect right now. With a major-league quality curveball and great velocity, Fried has drawn comparisons to Cole Hamels. While the Braves will certainly baby him in 2016, the hope is that if Fried can get a hundred of innings in and pitch at AA, he'll be on a path that will get him into the major league picture before the end of 2017.

7. Lucas Sims, LHP, Grade: B+

Selected 13 picks after Fried in 2012, Sims has experienced a much healthier climb, but was bogged down by struggles in the Carolina League. That's a bit surprising because the Carolina League is typically forgiving for pitchers, but Sims was also very young for the level. He got off to a poor start in a return trip in 2015, but had back-to-back good performances before the Carolina bus accident sidelined him. After missing over a month, he came back for a brief run in Carolina before moving up to Mississippi. Outside of one bad outing against Birmingham, he was very stout with the M-Braves, striking out a season-high 10 against Pensacola and pitching into the sixth inning in each of his final six starts. He finished with an impressive 11-inning run in Arizona where he struck out 11 and walked just three. After coming off a disappointing season in 2014, Sims has momentum back on his side.

6. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Grade: B+

With Toussaint, there are few pitchers with more raw stuff. His curveball can be absolutely lethal and his fastball has amazing movement. The problem is getting Toussaint to throw strikes consistently and that can come with more experience. Cleaning up his mechanics will help considerably and at 19, he has plenty of time to get there. The Braves will likely keep the kid gloves on him for the next few seasons and progress him through the system with care. Very few pitchers have the best case scenario as a #2 - maybe even #1 - but Toussaint has that if he can develop an off-speed delivery to compliment his fastball/curve combo (plus mechanics and control, of course). It's going to be fun to watch him try to put it all together and if you can see him pitch this year, you better go. You might see a stinker or you might see him throw six hitless innings like he did against Lakewood last July 20th. That was just his 24th career game.

Next week, I'll post the Top 5 Braves prospects at my other website, atlantabraves.about.com.

Scouting Report - Manny Banuelos

Player: Manny Banuelos
Date of Scouting Report: 1/21/16

Age: 25 in 2016
How acquired: Trade with Yankees for David Carpenter/Chasen Shreve
Salary: TBD (likely prorated major league minimum)
Years Before Free Agency: 6

Mike McGinnis | Getty

Brief Bio:
Former top prospect in the Yankees system is looking to capitalize on momentum that brought him to the majors the previous year. Injuries have always been a concern for Banuelos, who has only eclipsed the 100 inning plateau three times in his career (including last year). In 16 starts with Gwinnett in 2015, he maintained a 2.33 ERA with a 3.46 FIP, 7.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 0.21 HR/9. His efforts earned a promotion and while he started strong, he ended the year struggling and hurt. Had surgery to deal with some bone spurs that ended his 2015 season.

For more on Banuelos, here's my profile on Banuelos from About.com.

Offensive Observations and Grades
Very little information. 20 career plate appearances with 7 in the majors. Was highly successful in sacrifice bunt opportunities (4-for-4). Swinging Strike and Strike Looking percentages were slightly higher than the league norm, but certainly not awful. Hitless in the majors, he was 2-for-12 in the minors with 8 K's. One extra base, a double, and he only had one successful sacrifice bunt there.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Ungraded

Pitching Observations and Grades
(*sample size issues inherent in the following paragraphs) Once capable of 98 mph heat  before Tommy John, Banuelos now comfortably sits in the 89 mph range with a max in 2015 of 92.3 mph. There were reports he was hitting 94 mph with Gwinnett, but minor league guns are notoriously unreliable. He's basically scrapped his sinker and instead uses an 80 mph changeup a little less than a quarter of the time. Also utilizes a 83 mph slider that he can change speeds on depending on the circumstance. His fourth pitch is a 75 mph curveball that too often doesn't have much drop to it, but when it's on, it flashes out pitch potential.

Overall, he works best when he change speeds and out-thinks the hitter versus depending on stuff to get hitters out. His changeup was his best pitch to prompt a swinging strike last season, but his fastball is really the only pitch he spotted in the strikezone with any regularity. Changeup also is a double edge sword as it led to whiffs and an ungodly amount (48%) of line drives. As line drives turn into hits at a high rate, hitters teed off his change when it didn't flutter out of the zone. His mechanics are pretty smooth despite all of the injuries.
Grades from a 20-80 Scale...Velocity (45), Movement (50), Control (45)
Potential Grades...Velocity (50), Movement (60), Control (55)

Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (50), Changeup (55), Curveball (50), Slider (45)
Potential Individual Pitch Grades...Fastball (55), Changeup (65), Curveball (60), Slider (55)

Other Grades...Holding Runners (65), Speed to the Plate (50)

Defensive Observations and Grades
Impossible to grade right now.

Future Projection:
PECOTA has not been updated and probably won't be until March. With that in mind, their long-term forecasts have trended away from actual results as they still expect him to be a strikeout pitcher. In fact, their 2016 projection included this unrealistic number - 207 strikeouts. I imagine when they re-run the model this spring, the numbers will see a significant decline toward something closer to Marcel (1.39 WHIP, 1.1 HR/9, 3.2 BB/9, 7.7 K/9). I'd argue that's still very optimistic considering the last time Banuelos posted a 2.4 K/BB rate or better was 2010. Steamer projects similar rates, though a more reasonable 1.9 K/BB. I think that's closer to the pitcher Banuelos is. There remains upside here and if Roger McDowell and company can get him to spot his pitches with a higher degree of frequency, he could develop into a decent #4 who might not embarrass you if pressed to start a playoff game, but will likely still maintain a FIP trending over 4.00. A reasonable baseline might be Ryan Vogelsong's 2015 - 3.9 BB/9, 7.2 K/9, 1.13 HR/9, 4.53 FIP. In his prime, if healthy, Banuelos could certainly progress beyond that, but probably not very far.

Banuelos might benefit from a move to the bullpen. Like many lefthanders, he has shown a platoon advantage historically against lefthanders. Fringe lefties are often converted into LOOGYs. He doesn't fit the typical hard-throwing relief pitcher profile that's all the rage, but neither did Eric O'Flaherty. But he'll need to show more consistency with a breaking pitch (likely his curve) to do so.

I want to know your opinion/scouting report. Add it below and I might altar mine and give credit to you.

Top 30 Prospects, Post-2015 Edition - #10-1

Previous Rankings: 30-21 | 20-11

Over the last two weeks, I have released the first two tiers of my Top 30 post-season ranks. This finishes up the list. Well, not really. Next Monday, I will release a "And One More" prospect run-down which will include one more player at each position to keep an eye on over the winter and into two next year. For reference, two of the players from the preseason list (Daniel Winkler and Juan Yepez) made this Top 30.

I'm thinking of a Supersized Top 30 for the preseason ranking. Maybe a Top 30 + 20 prospects. If you have any ideas of how to improve this list, feel free to comment or tweet me. In the meantime, thanks for reading and on with the countdown.

Previous ranking legend
#20, #25 ...example ranking referring to pre-2015 rank and midseason update respectively.
- ...not ranked
+1 ...made the "And One More" list as a honorable mention

Ruiz (Elsa | Getty)

10. Rio Ruiz, 3B, Grade: B-
Previous Ranks: 6, 7

It takes me awhile to quit on a guy, but without Ruiz's strong finish, he certainly drops out my Top 10. However, hitting 4 of his five homers and hitting nearly .300 over the final 34 games gives me some hope. There's something here and it's enough to get hopeful over. After all, most 21 year-olds struggle at AA. Likely tabbed for a return trip to Mississippi in 2016, Ruiz can be dealt with patiently as the Braves see if they can get him going in the right direction. If Ruiz is in Gwinnett by the summer, things are looking up.

9. Braxton Davidson, OF, Grade: B-
Previous Ranks: 11, 10 

Davidson has seen some ranking progression so far from 11th to 10th to 9th this time. How can a guy who hit just .242 get much praise? By adding 10 homers, 84 walks, and a .381 OBP. Now, there are some whispers that he's not aggressive enough and it paves the way for too many strikeouts, but remember that Davidson started this season at 18 in the South Atlantic League and didn't turn 19 until two months in. He never faced a pitcher younger than him and of the Top 15 youngest hitters in the SALLY, of which Davidson ranks as the 14th youngest, Davidson's .755 OPS was sixth (3rd if you limit the list to those that received 400 PA). At just 19, he still has a lot of time to mature into the power hitter that made Frank Wren pony up the money to sign him as the 32nd overall selection of last year's draft. I like Davidson's chances to go higher in the rankings in 2016.

Jenkins (Elsa | Getty)

8. Tyrell Jenkins, RHP, Grade: B- 
Previous Ranks: 10, 11 

On one end, it would be easy to ignore Jenkins' 2015 for what it wasn't. What it wasn't was a big strikeout year. What it wasn't was a year where hitters struggled to reach base. But what it was? It was a year in which Jenkins (mostly) stayed healthy, something he has not been able to do as a professional. The former Baylor QB recruit pitched 138.1 innings, shattering his previous best by 50 innings, and did well at AA before a late season promotion to AAA showed some cracks (more homers, for one). Now, it's worth mentioning that a 1.4 K/BB rate is not exactly going to win any awards and his strikeouts were down last year, but the Braves sought a healthy season with progression for Jenkins and got it. Now, in 2016, the real challenge begins. Can he improve his numbers and get his walks down?

7. Manny Banuelos, LHP, Grade: B 
Previous Ranks: 7, 6

ManBan opened the year with 15 starts, including his second professional shutout, for the Gwinnett Braves. While we were all aware that he was on an innings limit, he looked like he was on the right direction to finish with a big first season in the organization. His first three appearances in Atlanta in early July did nothing to erase that hope, but a few iffy outings followed by bone spurs in his surgically fixed arm led to a DL trip. Once he came back in September, he lasted a pair of ugly starts before getting shut down to get the spurs removed from his arm. So, 2015 gave us the tantalizing quality of Banuelos, who has Top 100 stuff, but has been able to throw 100 innings just twice in his eight-year career. But 2016 could be different...right?

Mallex Smith (Stacy Revere | Getty Sports)

6. Mallex Smith, OF, Grade: B 
Previous Ranks: 12, 9

It took me a long time to buy into Mallex and even now, I'm tempted to poke holes in his game. However, when you have the back-to-back seasons that Mallex has had, it's difficult to not be impressed. While he stole 31 fewer bases in 2015 than he did the previous year, he still stole 57 bases in 70 attempts and hit .306 with a .373 OBP. The 22 year-old wasn't quite as impressive at Gwinnett after his June promotion, but that's nit-picking and I promised I wouldn't. Some think Mallex should start 2016 in Atlanta, but unless we see some trades before now and then that clear up the outfield situation, I would rather see him in Gwinnett. Even so, he's done nothing but show that he belongs in the discussion for "who should leadoff in Atlanta?"

5. Lucas Sims, RHP, Grade: B
Previous Ranks: 3, 3 

It was another mixed bag year for Sims in 2015 after struggling in the Carolina League during the previous year. Tabbed for a return trip, Sims was not impressive in 3 of his first four starts, but just as he looked to be on his way with a pair of starts and 10 K's in 13 innings, he was involved in the mid-May Mudcats bus accident. It kept him out a month and after a pair of rehab starts, he rejoined the Mudcats in July. The Braves must have been looking for any reason to promote him up the line because after a pair of mediocre efforts, he was promoted after his July 16 start where he K'd 8 in six innings. His nine starts in Mississippi were impressive, though. He K'd over a batter an inning and while he did have control issues, he kept the ball in the park. That's where he'll likely begin 2016, but he's back on track and could be one of Atlanta's biggest surprises next season.

4. Kolby Allard, LHP, Grade: B+
Previous Ranks: -, -

Pitchers with Top 10 talent don't often fall to #14, but when they do, you make the move and that's what the Braves did. After a lot of posturing where it looked like Allard might go to college rather than sign, Allard finally joined the organization and later made his professional debut in the Gulf Coast League in August. He was held to a strict pitch count and only logged six innings in three games, but he struck out 12 of the 20 he faced while allowing no walks, a hit, and hit batsman. The Braves can afford to go slow with Allard, but he's got the skillset to dominate next season. Did I mention he just turned 18 last August 13th?

Fried (Dennis Poroy | Getty)

3. Max Fried, LHP, Grade: B+
Previous Ranks: 4, 5

Nine days ago, Fried tweeted out some good news. "Officially graduated rehab!" The Braves have waited since last offseason to see Fried throw a meaningful pitch and while they will continue to wait until the season gets going, this was big. Fried was the best prospect in a trade that includes the Braves current starting second baseman (Jace Peterson) and the #6 prospect of my rankings (Smith). In his last "healthy" season of 2013, Fried K'd 100 in 118.2 ING with a 3.49 ERA at A-level Fort Wayne. Braves will likely be very cautious with Fried in 2016 so we may not see him break out until 2017.

2. Touki Toussaint, RHP, Grade: B+
Previous Ranks: -, 2 

I haven't gotten to Touki's deal in my review of the Hart/Coppolella trades, but it might be my favorite. The D'Backs effectively gave up their top pick from 2014 just to get rid of Bronson Arroyo. Crazy. His stats after the trade were inconsistent. On July 20, he threw six no-hit innings. Six days later, he gave up nine runs in 3.1 ING. Six days after that, he gave up just two hits and a run in six innings. He's a kid figuring it out, but when he can control his stuff, he is one of the best prospects in baseball, let alone the system.

Brace Hemmelgarn | Getty

1. Ozhaino Albies, SS, Grade: A- 
Previous Ranks: 8, 8

Curacao has 171.4 square miles and just over 150,000 people. If one of those 150K Curacaoians can play baseball, the Braves will find him. Albies showed up on the scene in 2014, hitting .364 with 22 steals. This year, he went to Rome, where he was among the youngest players in the league (and younger than Davidson). Albies hit all of .310/.368/.404 with 29 steals. He's undersized and doesn't have much in terms of power, but he plays a good shortstop and does everything else really well. The switch-hitter is blocked at short currently, but much like former prospect, Jose Peraza, the Braves will move him to second if needed.

Thanks for reading and tell me in the comment section where I went wrong. Oh, and be sure to visit next week when I add a player at each position to keep an eye on.