Saturday Stats Pack: Kemp, Vizcaino, Acuna, Soroka

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Matt Kemp Is Double Play City

We quantify everything nowadays. It's not enough to count each instance of a double play. We now have Weighted Grounded Into Double Plays. What this number tries to do is not only count the number of times a player grounds into double play, but also credit the times that he doesn't. It's used in fWAR, by the way. Unsurprisingly, the best at this are guys who hit a lot of flyballs like Cody Bellinger and Joey Gallo. Matt Kemp isn't in that camp. He's near 50% in groundballs - not a particularly good thing when you aren't known for your speed. Unsurprisingly, Kemp ranks extremely poorly in wGDP. Again, this isn't shocking because he leads the league in GDP anyway, but wGDP goes that extra mile so it's worth a look as well. Kemp's wGDP is -3.1 It's already the worst mark of his career.

Folty Playing With Fire

Line drives are a path to struggles for a pitcher. Not only are they massively dangerous, but their tendency to become hits makes them incredibly problematic. In 2014, hitters batted .685 with a .684 wOBA on line drives. That's compared to a .220 wOBA on grounders and a .335 wOBA on flyballs. Mike Foltynewicz has a line-drive rate of 24%, the ninth highest such rate among starters entering play Friday. The Top 10 in this category is full of pitchers with around a 4.50 ERA or higher like Scott Feldman, Johnny Cueto, Justin Verlander, and Jeff Samardzija. Worse - over the last three years - Foltynewicz ranks third behind just Adam Wainwright and Jeremy Hellickson in line-drive rate. It's difficult to be a success when so many balls are hit hard. It's not impossible, but very difficult. unlike many of those pitchers, one advantage Foltynewicz has is his youth. He still has room to grow.

Dansby is Clutch?

Recently, I went over the Clutch statistic - a mixture of Win Probability Added with the leverage index of a situation taken into account. The Top 10 in Clutch this season includes some predictable names like Nolan Arenado, Kendrys Morales, and even Albert Pujols. It also includes two Braves. Brandon Phillips ranks 7th and Dansby Swanson ranks ninth. Considering the terrible year Swanson has had which has led to a recent demotion, that might be surprising. Well, don't get too excited. It's based largely on 36 PA in high leverage situations this season for Swanson. He's 9-for-29 with four doubles, seven walks, and seven strikeouts in those moments. 36 PA is hardly a notable sample size, but for us fans of Swanson, it's nice to find something good he ranks in the top 10 of.

Vizcaino's Heat Overshadows His Out Pitch

Since finally putting the arm troubles in the rear view (for the most part) that plagued him during his time with the Cubs, Arodys Vizcaino has continued to show that there are few pitchers in the game with his kind of velocity. Over the last three years, he's averaged 98.3 mph on his fastball. Only six other relievers have averaged at least 98 mph. But Vizcaino's story isn't his velocity. It's great, but his most effective pitch his is curveball. Over the last three years, it's ranked ninth among relievers in pitch value - largely built on the seventh best vertical movement among bullpen guys during that time frame. So, while we are all in awe over what Vizzy's heater can do, it's ultimately a show-me pitch. It's the curveball that pays the bills.

Swing-Happy

It's no secret that Brandon Phillips is not a guy who will stay in the batting box for long. Only 4.3% of his plate appearances have ended in a walk this season and his strikeout rate of 12.1% is also rather low. Phillips is up there to swing and the results bear that out. Of hitters with at least 200 PA this season, Phillips's swing percentage is 10th at 55.8%. In fact, the Braves are attempting a radical strategy of keeping SunTrust Park cool by swinging early-and-often. Matt Kemp is 20th at 53.5%, Freddie Freeman is 22nd with 53.3%, Matt Adams is 26 at 52.6%, and Ender Inciarte is 32nd at 52.3%. Shockingly, the Braves entered play Friday with the fourth lowest walk percentage in baseball.

Morris Rolling

He's only tossed 7.1 innings in the majors to this point, but something we saw out of Akeel Morris in the minors is translating to continued success in the majors. No other pitcher in Gwinnett was getting more swinging strikes than Morris. In fact, 16% of his pitches resulted in a whiff at Gwinnett. So far in the majors, that number is 14.3%. That could hint toward continued success for Morris.

At Least As Good As Adonis?

Freddie Freeman surpassed 100 innings at third base this week and we might be able to begin to grade him. Well, not really as 100 innings is way too low of a sample, but it's all we have. For instance, we can say that Freeman compares decently to one of the players no longer manning third base - Adonis Garcia. Now, this isn't fair because we're comparing over 1700 innings to 100, but Freeman compares positively in some regards (DRS, rPM, RZR) with Garcia. Of course...Garcia is not considered a good defender at third base...

Acuna Just Getting Better

Ronald Acuna's year has been off-the-charts awesome. It began with a winter-league run in Australia where he earned the moniker "The Answer to Everything." He then hammered the Florida State League for a .370 wOBA over 28 games before being promoted to Double-A. Once there, his numbers improved a bit more and he earned another promotion to Triple-A. But you all know this already. What may not be as well known is the improvement he's made at each level. Take all of this with a grain of salt because of short sample sizes, BUT...with each promotion, his walk rate has improved from 6.3% to 7.4% to 10.6% entering Friday. With each promotion, his strikeout rate has declined from 31.7% to 23.0% to 21.2%. In addition, his ISO has shown some improvement from .191 to .195 to .228. These three numbers are as exciting to me as any power or speed numbers he's posted to this point. They suggest he's only progressing.

Soroka's Control

One of the best minor league stories in baseball has been the success of Mike Soroka at Double-A despite being just 19 years-old. One of the most efficient pitchers in the minor leagues, Soroka just doesn't walk batters. By that, I mean he's walked just 4.7% of opposing hitters. Considering his 2.99 FIP, that suggests Soroka is not a control artist, but a dominant one and his 21.5% strikeout rate bears that out. All told, he has nearly a 17% difference between his strikeout and walk rates. How good is that? Only 19 starters are doing that in the major leagues right now. Not too shabby for a kid who probably should be getting his feet wet at low-A ball right now considering his age.

Saturday Stats Pack: Catching, Atlanta's Non-Manager, Acuna's Exploits

Johan Camargo's Shocking Season

Camargo started at shortstop Friday night and singled once in three trips to the plate. His average actually dropped a tad to .327 in the process. That's how's Camargo's surprising rookie campaign has gone to this point. Over 40 games, the switch-hitter has on-based .355 due to just a 4.5% walk rate but has shown new-found pop to keep his slugging a shade under .500. His numbers are remarkably similar to his Gwinnett metrics this season, though with a higher strikeout percentage. He's also benefitted from a .410 BABIP. Rather than address the chances his production remains stellar - that's not the purpose of this column - it's worth noting that we started to see some changes from Camargo last year (his ISO went up nearly 40 points) and at the age of 23-years-old, it's not unheard of to add muscle. To that possibility, people I've spoken to point out he that looks bigger and stronger than ever before. If the BABIP does fall - and I predict that it will - Camargo still could turn into a nice piece that belongs on a major league roster and maybe not all that glitters is gold, but in Camargo's case, some of it might just be.

The Starting Rotation Is Close to Something

Tonight, Jaime Garcia takes the mound for the Braves. With a good game, he could push his fWAR over 1.0 for the season. Right now, the Braves still do not have a 1-win starter and only Jim Johnson has crossed that plateau as a pitcher for the Braves. Garcia is sitting at 0.9, slightly ahead of both Mike Foltynewicz and Sean Newcomb at 0.7. R.A. Dickey, whose recent success has been a big factor in the Braves looking better of late, has upped his season total to 0.6. To put that in another way, many people laughed at the Padres for starting Jhoulys Chacin on opening day - a guy the Braves gave away for a rookie-level lefty project last season. Chacin currently has a 1.2 fWAR. Granted, WAR is not the end-all, be-all of numbers, but it's a pretty damning reality of the state of the Braves' rotation.

Catching Strength

One surprising thing about the Braves this year has come from the production behind the plate. While Tyler Flowers impressed in limited action last year, not a lot of people felt he would repeat the effort this season considering mediocre career numbers. Hardly anyone thought Kurt Suzuki would add much with the bat, either. The results so far speak for themselves. Of 30 major league teams, only the Giants, Dodgers, Tigers, and Astros have a higher fWAR from their catchers than Atlanta's 2.3. The Braves rank third in catcher batting average, second in OBP, and ninth in slugging. The .352 wOBA ranks fourth while the 115 wRC+ is good for fifth. Atlanta has been blessed with tremendous catcher production over the years. Since 2000, they've twice reached 6 fWAR from the backstop position. While that is far too high of a goal right now, this year's unit has a shot for a 4 fWAR season - which would be the seventh such season since 2000 by Atlanta's catchers. Not too shabby for a combined $4.5 million in base salary.

The Other Freeman

I still don't know what to think of Sam Freeman. In a way, I like him more now after his ERA has been rising than I did before. And yes, this is a strange time to bring up Freeman after giving up three runs against the Nationals before the break and surrendering a home run by Paul Goldschmidt yesterday to blow a lead. Is Freeman a shutdown reliever? No. But can he be a useful arm? His 57.5% groundball rate, 3.80 xFIP, 3.81 SIERA suggests that he can. The problem is that those numbers might be soft. Throughout his career, he's carried reverse splits in parts of six major league seasons. Against righties, he's been a bit more useful with a .221/.323/.300 slash and a 20% strikeout rate. On the other hand, lefties have handled him with a .261/.377/.390 slash while striking out 24% of the time. This year, he's been effective in a LOOGY role with a .212/.281/.288 slash against lefties and a 30% strikeout rate. It's righties he can't get out (.397 opposing OBP). Is small sample size the reason for this? My gut says yeah, but relievers are a strange breed. Their numbers can fluctuate one way or the other. Until Freeman proves his career rate is more accurate and his left-hand split climbs, you have to relegate him to LOOGY time. However...it might already be doing that. Since June 1, the last 35 lefties he's faced have as many hits as they do strikeouts - ten. His righty split isn't all that good either (.275/.370/.350, 46 batters faced). I hear that A.J. Minter guy is coming along, though...

Snitker: The Non-Manager

One of the most unnerving things about Brian Snitker is how the game manages him, not the other way around. A questionable bullpen that has allowed the third most runs-per-game would likely prompt a manager to make a lot of bullpen moves. That's compounded by a rotation that often struggles to avoid big innings. However, Snitker has gone to the pen 286 times - about the league average. That's not in itself a terrible thing - you don't want to burn out your relievers, after all. But under Snitker, Atlanta really plays up bullpen roles over strategy. Get six innings out of your starter and then follow the flow chart. Are you losing? Go with your young and unproven arms for one-to-two innings a piece. Are you winning? Go to Jose Ramirez in the seventh, Arodys Vizcaino in the eighth, and Jim Johnson in the ninth? Tied and on the road? Jason Motte/Ian Krol in the seventh followed by Ramirez and Vizcaino. Wait until you have the lead for Jim Johnson. You can bet he's lost without Vizcaino and Motte right now. There's little-to-no strategy involved here and the numbers point to that. Atlanta relievers are tied for the third fewest outings with runners on base. That means they often come in with the bases empty - typically to start a frame. They've thrown the second-fewest multiple-inning outings (1.1 ING and above) and are a bit below-the-NL average in outings of fewer than three outs (i.e. specialists). They also have the second-smallest average outs-per-game. Those numbers suggest that Snitker expects his relievers to be one-inning guys in assigned roles. Good managers make decisions based on the needs of the game. Snitker manages like he's still in the minor leagues. Give your starters innings and reach a pitch count. Give your relievers an inning and go to the next. There's little thinking involved and the Braves have suffered as a result.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter

Teenage Pop

Ronald Acuna posted a .895 OPS at Double-A. That's not just outstanding, but enough to convince the Atlanta Braves to promote him to Triple-A. He's only 19 years-old and that won't change until a week before Christmas. He'll have over 30 games in the International League before the end of the season - should he not get promoted before that. It's rare enough to be in your Age-19 season in the International League and that alone is an accomplishment. Last year's only teenage rookie position player was Acuna's new teammate, Ozzie Albies. But what would happen if Acuna not only stayed in the IL as a teenager but produced at a similar clip as his pre-AAA days? For starters, let's add some context using one of the game's best players - and the MLB.com twitter account's favorite player - Bryce Harper. Over a 21-game run in 2012 as a 19-year-old, the man with the hair hit just .243/.325/.365. It's difficult to find teenagers who received at least a 30-game attempt in the International League, let alone find successful ones. The last one to post an OPS over .800 as a teenager in the International League - brace yourself, friends - was Melvin Upton Jr. Back in 2004, the 19-year-old hit .311/.411/.519. By the way, when our old buddy was doing that, Acuna was seven.

Cuban Imports Raking - When Healthy

The Dominican Summer League Braves have struggled this season with one of the weaker pitching staffs and a just as weak offensive club averaging 4.31 runs per game in a league in which teams average 4.95 per. They are not being helped by the absence of Juan Carlos Negret, who hasn't played since June 30. I am not sure for the reason, but Negret was hitting a robust .306/.451/.528 over 19 games with 11 extra-base hits and eight steals before disappearing. Recent addition and fellow Cuban-born outfielder, Henry Quintero, could help fill the void. Over his first three games, Quintero went 4-for-8 with three doubles and a triple. Unfortunately, he left that third game after being hit by a pitch to lead off the first and hasn't played in the team's last three games. With the DSL offense slumping, it would be big for them to get either one of these Cuban imports back.

Danville's Pitching Staff Holding Up

With most of last year's top picks already in Rome and this year's top two drafted arms in the GCL, the Danville pitching staff could have been in line for a bad season. So far, it's held up to post the second-best ERA in the Appalachian League and its 4.05 ERA is nearly 60-points below the league-average. It hasn't been all good as the shoddy defense has led to 27 unearned runs through 22 games. Still, Danville has looked pretty decent despite the lack of star power. Kyle Muller is the currently ranked prospect with the D-Braves, placing 16th in our recent Midseason Top 50. He's K'd 26 in 23 innings while walking ten over five starts.

Saturday Stats Pack - Freeman, Krol, Ender, Bonifacio

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons

203 wRC+

I can probably make an entire article out of the absolutely insane numbers Freddie Freeman is posting, but for today, let's focus on his Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+. This is one of my favorite offensive stats because it combines total offensive performance, park factor, and league factors all in one easy to compare statistic. Freeman is currently one of six players over the 200 wRC+ mark - that is to say, they are 100%+ better than the league average. Since 1960, we have only seen seven 200 wRC+ or better seasons. Barry Bonds did it four consecutive years from '01-'04 while Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas each did it in the strike-shortened 1994. Mark McGwire's 70-homer campaign in 1998 is the only other example of this elite form of accomplishment. No Brave has ever done it. In fact, the closest a Brave ever came was Rogers Hornsby's one season with the Braves back in 1928 (196 wRC+). Hank Aaron holds the top Atlanta-mark with a 191 in 1971. Can Freeman keep up the pace? History is not on his side, but if he was able to do so, it would be a historic season for the Braves.

Going-Going-Gone

Ian Krol was an excellent performer for the Braves last season with a 2.91/2.97/2.81 FIP/xFIP/SIERA triple slash. There was plenty of reason to believe he would continue to help anchor a bullpen that supposedly was improved. Instead, he is one of the primary reasons for the pen's struggles. His groundball rate is down nearly 16%. This has led to more flyballs and with his hard-hit rate up nearly 10%, more of those flyballs are traveling a long way. He surrendered four homers last season. This year? Four in 37.1 fewer innings. To put that in another way, 23.5% of his flyballs have turned into goners. That's highly unlikely to continue and if it did, it's impossible to believe he would reach the 50-inning plateau. But if that rate continued over 50 innings, his 23.5% HR/FB rate would rank as tied for the tenth worst since the stat was introduced in 2002. Some of the names ahead of him - Todd Coffey, Yohan Flande, Roman Colon, Sergio Mitre, and Jonny Venters. Yep, Venters had a 24% HR/FB rate in 2012, which is also the last time we saw him in the majors.

Now the Unquestioned Best?

You are forgiven if you think Kevin Kiermaier is the best defensive center fielder in baseball, but so far this season, there is little reason to doubt that Ender Inciarte has been on top of the heap. The converted infielder Odubel Herrera is currently the only one who is a worthy challenger to the throne. On the year, Inciarte has a 6.7 UZR. His ARM rating is second to Billy Hamilton. No player has made more out-of-the-zone plays and he's playing even better than he did last year when he won a Gold Glove. Not sure if anyone has ever said this before - let alone put it in song-form - but for right now, Ender Inciarte is simply the best. He truly is better than the rest.

5.7 IP/GS

It's a strange dynamic the Braves have. They rank just outside the top ten in innings-per-start from their rotation and are tied for tenth is quality start percentage. Despite that, no team has given up more runs per game from their starting rotation than the Braves. No team has a worse average game score than the Braves. Here's something that's also funny - no team has bequeathed fewer runners than the Braves. Brian Snitker's managing style to this point has been to let his starters try to work through whatever troubles they have and complete innings. Some of that has to be due to a troublesome bullpen, but there's also a trust-factor related to the veteran staff.

Boni's Value

I know I have been critical of Emilio Bonifacio's continued usage of a roster spot, but he is on at least one leaderboard. Only Martin Maldonado has attempted more sacrifice bunts and nobody has put more bunts down successfully than Bonifacio. He's 4-for-5 and part of the reason the Braves have attempted the second-most sacrifice bunts in baseball. Not sure if we should celebrate that - especially since they are about average at putting them down - but it's something. I guess.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack

Gwinnett - 25% 

With him back in Gwinnett after a short time in Atlanta, let's look at one of the stranger stats in the system. In 66 PA, Lane Adams has a 25% ground-ball rate. To put that into perspective, much has been made about Yonder Alonso's re-worked swing to get more elevation on the ball. It's working wonders for him and his groundball rate went from 44% to 24.7% overnight. Adams has always been in the low 40's in groundball rate so it's worth a look to see if this continues.

Mississippi - 20% or better

Imagine being a Southern League hitter facing the Mississippi Braves. You know they will bring their vaunted rotation with them, but just how tough have they been on hitters? Each of their starters has carried a 20% or better strikeout rate this season. Kolby Allard has a 20.4% rate, Max Fried checks in at 23.3%, Matt Withrow is next with a 23.4%, Mike Soroka is at 23.9%, and Patrick Weigel is a shade under a quarter of all batters as he K'd 24.8%. Weigel has since been promoted, but don't rejoice Southern League hitters. His replacement, Luiz Gohara, was striking out 26.7% of Florida State League batters.

Florida - Breakthrough Power

It's fair to criticize the Braves taking a chance on Alex Jackson. Not only had he been a failure in the Mariners' system, but he had work ethic concerns. I wasn't critical, though. I spoke of minor improvements in his batted ball rates and plate discipline. Truth be told, I was just reaching for reasons to show my optimism was fact-based. So far, I apparently had reason to believe good things were coming. In 33 games, Jackson has bashed ten homers while hitting .309/.363/.604. He's also posted a .431 wOBA according to Fangraphs. Defensively, he still has some issues to work through - as he should since he's played in the outfield since being drafted and is switching back to catcher - but so far, this trade looks like a good one for the Braves.

Rome - ERA Not Telling the Whole Story

With a 4.03 ERA, it's easy to ignore Joey Wentz when compared to Ian Anderson and Bryse Wilson, each with much more impressive marks. However, Wentz betters both in FIP and xFIP (2.26/3.29). This is due to Wentz's polished performance on the mound. He's walked just 5.7% of opposing batters, nearly 4% less than Wilson and close to 9% less than Anderson. While his strikeout rate is well below Anderson's, it's just a tick below Wilson's and like Anderson, he hasn't surrendered a homerun. No matter how you slice it, for the second consecutive season, the Rome Braves have an uber-exciting pitching staff.

Saturday Stats Pack: Flowers, Stolen Bases, Bullpen, Sims

Unlike last season where I posted two separate entries, I'm going to try to do one Saturday Stats Pack with both major league and minor league notable stats. So, without too much stalling, here is this week's edition.

Tyler Flowers (By Editosaurus (Own work) [CC0],
via Wikimedia Commons)

.344 wOBA

Over the last two seasons, only six catchers have stepped into the batter's box at least 350 times and have a better weighted on-base average than Tyler Flowers. They include the current elite of the elite (Buster Posey, Jonathan Lucroy), the young Willson Contreras, a career-year from Wilson Ramos, the impressive Yasmani Grandal, and a part-time backstop in Evan Gattis. This is a surprise for White Sox fans, who saw Flowers post a wOBA of almost a hundred points lower during nearly 1400 PA playing in the black-and-white. To put it in simple terms, Flowers is simply making better contact. While with the White Sox, 20% of the balls he hit were given a soft-contact classification. There is a correlation between a high Soft% and a lower BABIP. Unsurprisingly, Flowers' BABIP has surged since coming to the Braves as he's lowered his Soft% to 13.4%. Meanwhile, his Hard-Hit rate has climbed 12 points. No catcher since 2016 can match it. Sure, there do remain sample size concerns here, but Flowers is winning over doubters every week that he continues to produce.

82.4%

So far, the Braves are 14-for-17 in stolen bases - a success rate of 82.4%. This would be some kind of franchise record. Only once in franchise history have the Braves reached the 80% threshold. That came in 1941 when the Braves swiped 61-of-76, good for an 80.3% rate. The Braves' best rate since moving to Atlanta came in 2012 when the Michael Bourn-Jason Heyward-Martin Prado outfield helped the Braves steal a shade under 76% of their attempts. Last year, they only stole 69%, which is still nice, I hear.

62.2 Innings

For all of the vitriol the Braves bullpen has received - and sometimes deserves - Brian Snitker has relied on his relievers for the third-fewest innings of any bullpen in baseball. Compared to the Reds, the Braves have needed 35.1 fewer innings from their relievers. To be fair, though...part of that accomplishment is because Atlanta has played, along with a few other teams, the fewest games in baseball - though the Reds have played just two more. Atlanta's starters have thrown 123 innings, good for 23rd.

What Are We, Anyway?

After Roger McDowell was let go, I wondered if it would alter how the Braves tried to pitch. McDowell was a guy who stressed the importance of pitching low and getting grounders. So far, the Braves pitching staff doesn't seem to be doing anything at a rate that suggests any kind of philosophy. Their strikeout rate is fourth worst, their walk rate is 11th worst, and only six teams induce fewer grounders. Their HR/FB rate is in the middle of the pact. However...they do one thing that stands out. 22% of the balls that batters connect on are rated as softly hit. This may be due, in part, because only the Cubs have a worse fastball velocity than the Braves. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see if anything substantial comes from a Chuck Hernandez-led pitching staff like the McDowell years.

Rick Briggs (CC by 2.0) via Flickr

Minor League Stats of Interest...Gwinnett - 2.3 BB/9

There's nothing too exciting about the walk rate above until you bring it into context. Since 2015, Lucas Sims' walks per nine innings have ranged from 5.2 and 5.9. Before that, he kept it around 3.5 BB/9 - which isn't great, but certainly something that can be worked around as a starting prospect. Early on this season, we have seen a possible return to the pre-2015 version of Sims. In 23.2 innings, Sims has walked just six. Sims has always had the stuff and typically carries a low H/9 as a result. Now, he's keeping batters off base, though the BABIP is artificially too low and will climb. The Sims of 2017 is no longer a top prospect. Outfield Fly Rule did a composite list of his rating according to Braves' top prospect lists and he landed #21 - a bit lower than my ranking of #18. However, if he continues to pitch like the top-flight prospect he once was, it's only a matter of time until he gets a shot to show what he has.

Mississippi - 38.4%

Travis Demeritte has routinely seen his prospect status hurt by his strikeout rate. It was 33% last season and 35% the season before. The offensive skills are intriguing, but the strikeouts are an issue. And, to be frank, a strikeout rate of 38.4% is very bad. The thing is...that rate is about 20% higher than Demeritte's, who has only struck out in 18% of his plate appearances this year. Instead, the 38.4% strikeout rate belongs to Connor Lien. The defensively minded outfielder became a bit of a prospect back in 2015 when he slashed .285/.347/.415 at high-A ball with a plethora of big defensive plays, but injuries limited him to just 64 games when he played at Double-A last season. So far this season, he's put a clinic on how not to reclaim your prospect status. Lien has hit four homers and stolen five bases - trends that could end with season stats that look rather solid. But at a near 40% strikeout rate (compared to a near 5% walk rate), he'll be in line for some problematic times.

Florida - 7.20 ERA, but Trending Up

Touki Toussaint is still a raw pitcher facing hitters that are older and more experienced than he is. He's trying to solve high-A ball for the first time and is still over a month away from turning 21. You might look at his 7.20 ERA and say "he's just not ready for the Florida State League." I, on the other hand, look at his K/BB rate and start to get excited. Like Lucas Sims, Toussaint's stuff is off the charts. In fact, his stuff is as good as anyone's in minor league baseball. What talent evaluators have doubts about are his ability to harness and control that stuff. He's been hit hard so far this season, but his 3.8 K/BB rate tells me he might be "getting it" a bit more. Consider that his career rate is 1.75 strikeouts per walk. Don't be discouraged if you see that ERA. Something good might just be happening here.

Rome - Waves Upon Waves

We've heard how John Coppolella and company want to build a farm system that will send prospects to the majors in waves. After last season's Rome pitching staff that included three former first round picks led the team to a league title, the next wave has landed in Rome and the South Atlantic League has turned into their playground. In 22 games, the staff has a 2.28 ERA. Starters Ian Anderson (1.93 ERA), Joey Wentz (2.70), and Bryse Wilson (2.55) were all plucked out of the first-thru-fourth rounds last year and each has been excellent. Relievers Thomas Burrows, Jon Kennedy, and Matt Custred each have ERAs under 1.00. As a staff, Rome has a K/9 of 9.7 per nine and have surrendered just four homers. It's early, but it looks like Rome will be a favorite to repeat in the South Atlantic League.

Minor League Stats Pack - Newcomb, Whalen, Toscano, Davidson

Here is this week's Saturday Stats Pack for the minor league Braves. Feel free to add to this post through the comment section with some interesting numbers I've missed.

Ken Lund via Flickr - Creative Commons License

Newcomb Heating Up

In a year of uneven performances, things are clicking for Sean Newcomb over his last two starts. In 11 innings, he has allowed just two runs, four walks, and 12 strikeouts. 61% of his pitches have gone for strikes during that time frame. If we can start to see more strikes out of Newcomb, the hope that he remains in the starting rotation increases. One thing's for certain - he is a weapon against lefthanders. They have managed just seven singles off the southpaw in 49 plate appearances. 35% of those appearances have ended in a strikeout.

Whalen Finding His Groove

While John Gant has already appeared in the majors out of the Juan Uribe/Kelly Johnson deal last summer, Robert Whalen was the higher-regarded prospect at the time of the trade. His work of late has shown exactly why. Over his last six starts, he has allowed an earned run or less in five of them. His average game score for those outings is 59 - which is dragged down significantly by a 34 mixed in there. Whalen might not enter any Top 10's for the system, but he's a pitcher worth watching as 2016 continues.

For Toscano, 2016 Has Not Been Worth the Wait

On one hand, it's an improvement for the Braves to even see 27 year-old Dian Toscano on the field after VISA issues wiped out his 2015 season. However, the Cuban defectee has been thoroughly underwhelming for Mississippi this year, slashing just .228/.302/.289 over 40 games. The dream was that Toscano had the upside of a second-division starter in the outfield, but the fallback of a fourth outfielder appears - for now - to be a fantasy as well.

Braxton Starting to Get It

It wouldn't be accurate to label Braxton Davidson's season anything but disappointing. Nevertheless, the 20 year-old has shown improvement after slashing .172/.245/.276 over his first 24 games. In the next batch of two-dozen games, Davidson has improved to the tune of a .253/.358/.342 slash. Now, that is hardly outstanding numbers, but we are starting to see progression, which is the most important thing for Davidson at this point. Not for nothing, but the next time Davidson faces a pitcher younger than him, it'll be the first time in two years. Remember that the next time anyone refers to the 19 year-old as a bust.

Runners of the South Atlantic League: Beware!

The duo of Lucas Herbert and Jonathan Morales have done a great job this year for Rome. One catches while the other DH's. It keeps both in the lineup almost every day. Herbert's bat hasn't been a plus this year and Morales has cooled off after a scorching beginning to the year, but even if they're not producing tremendously at the plate, they are doing the duty behind it. Herbert, who was drafted because of his work behind the plate, has not disappointed. Morales's defense has been a bit of surprise and together, both have dominated the South Atlantic League baserunners. 43% of those that have tried to steal on Herbert have been caught. For Morales, it's 20-of-41 (49%). The league average is 33% and the Rome Braves are bringing up the curve.

Minter Rolling

Limited to just 58 innings in college and no innings after being drafted last summer out of Texas A&M, A.J. Minter didn't pitch this season in a game until May 5. Since getting into game action, Minter has been on fire. After 6.2 scoreless innings with Rome to begin his professional career, he was promoted to Carolina. In two games there, Minter added 3.1 scoreless. Overall, he is up to ten innings, two hits allowed, three walks, and 11 K's. The potential bad news is that he was moved down to Danville on June 1st. This may have been an administrative move to limit his innings. There also exists the possibility that Minter is attracting trade interest and the Braves don't want to chance his health. Either way, the results on the mound have gave the Braves some validation for drafting him in the second round.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack - Peterson, Swanson, Didder, Bird

Dustin Peterson > D.J. Peterson with .383 wOBA

It's exceedingly early, but for the first times in their respective professional careers, the younger Peterson is outproducing his much-heralded older brother at the plate. Dustin really struggled at Carolina last year, though considering his age and the difficulty with hitting in the Carolina League, maybe he should have been given a mulligan. Further, the improvements that he did make were not given much coverage. After 1-in-5 of all PA in 2014 ended with Peterson swinging through strike three, he knocked that down to 13.7 (or essentially league average). He upped his true BB% rate from 5.5% to 9.3%. These were little things that may have not impressed people looking at his .253/.319/.350 slash, but showed that Peterson was a kid who might be getting it.

In 2016, he does get it. Well, so far. His triple slash is up to .277/.345/.477 and he has minor improvements in swinging third strikes and true walks (non-IBB). He's also began to flash the power that made an intriguing player when the Padres drafted him. After about 5% of flyballs turned into homers from 2014-15, he has nearly doubled that metric in 2016. With a 119 wOBA+, Peterson is looking like he's definitely on the rise.

By Arturo Pardavila III on Flickr (Original
version) UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Swanson's Struggles Continue

Need another example why the Braves shouldn't rush prospects to the majors? Here is Dansby Swanson's last eight games.

0-for-3, 2 BB, K
0-for-3, HBP
0-for-3, BB, 2 K
0-for-4, K
3-for-4, 3B, BB
0-for-4, K
0-for-3, BB
0-for-4, K

This is nothing to worry about, but it does show us that maybe Swanson could be better suited working through adversity in Double-A rather than desperately searching for a hit when he puts up goose eggs in seven-of-eight games in the majors.

RPD Refuses to Slow Down

At some point, the performance of Ray-Patrick Didder has to be more than just BABIP driven. Certainly his .379 BABIP should see an element of regression, but that can't explain his .283/.372/.425 triple slash completely. One of the more interesting things to watch as the season progresses is if his .142 ISO is for the real. A competent ISO with an outfielder capable of swiping 20 or more bases is worth prospect-attention. The fact that he has a good understanding of the strikezone and takes his walks will only help.

.400 OBP + .186 ISO = Call-up?

Back in 2014, Joey Meneses became a bit of a prospect for the Rome. Signed out of Mexico, the 1B/OF was repeating the level and despite spending much of the year on the DL, finished with just 28 fewer total bases in 50 fewer games than he did in 2013. Highlights included a May 10th home game against Asheville in which Meneses hit for the cycle. At the time, with so few prospects churning in the minors (especially hitters), Meneses garnered more attention than he likely deserved. The following year, he would struggle nightly with Carolina. The performance would force the nearly 24 year-old to repeat the Carolina League assignment to begin this season. It might be time to bump him up.

He was pretty good overall, but has stepped it up over his last 17 games. He's hit .450 with 7 2B, 4 HR, and even added a pair of steals. He does a lot of his damage against younger pitchers and certainly, an abbreviated run in his second go-around with Carolina doesn't mean he should be back in our minds as a potential major leaguer, but he's not getting any younger. Time to see what he can do at Mississippi.

"You sold my dead bird to a blind kid?"

If last year's Hector Olivera exchange wasn't looking bad enough for you, the other piece acquired in the deal - Zachary Bird - has been awful so far. Moved to the bullpen to begin the season, the 21 year-old righty out of Jackson, Mississippi comes with a bevy of worrisome stats. 14 unintentional walks in 13 innings to 70 batters faced. A declining GB% rate that has fell to 42%. 5.89 FIP. Strikeout percentage that has plummeted from 18% last year to 11% this year.

Bird three a pair of scoreless innings last night with a hit allowed, two walks, and a strikeout. He got the same amount of swinging strikes in that one outing that he did the previous three in which he faced 13 more hitters. Maybe it's a hopeful sign because the Braves are certainly searching for positives with Bird.

Thanks for reading and remember to read the major league portion of this article by either scrolling down or, if you came to this blog directly, clicking here.

Saturday Stats Pack: #WilliansWatch, Riley, Swanson, Ruiz

Going to do something different this week, though it's actually going back to what I used to do with this series. Rather than splitting up observations by minor league affiliate, I'll just make note of interesting stats of the particular players. Should be easier and more fun that way. In addition, feel free to check out the major league companion to this series at my other site. Topics discussed include Aaron Blair's opening three games, historic marks in SLG and HR, and how badly the Braves are doing in WAR. It's a real joy to read.

1 Strikeout

It's over. The great 2016 #WilliansWatch has reached its end. It actually came to a close the Friday before last, but I missed last week's edition for my daughter's birthday. Willians Astudillo struck out swinging to open the bottom of the second inning against Jacksonville's Jarlin Garcia (Miami). It ended a streak of 54 AB to begin the year without a strikeout. #WilliansWatch might continue in a different facet, however. He's already up to 23 AB without a second strikeout.

36 Strikeouts

From a ridiculous frequency to put the bat on the ball to the opposite end. Austin Riley leads Braves minor leaguers with 36 K's in his first 101 AB. Riley remains a very intriguing prospect, but we are seeing what we didn't last year - adversity. The 19 year-old has a .282 OBP and while he has shown the power (12 EBH), the inability to get on base and the all-too-common quick trip to the dugout should make his biggest supporters pause and remember that he's still very young and not even close to contributing for the Braves.

19 Walks/14 K

One last focus on this strikeout theme comes from the impressive bat of Dansby Swanson. Among minor league hitters, his .455 OBP is tops. A big reason for that is his 19 walks in 121 PA (16%). The 19 walks also leads minor league hitters. Conversely, he has struck out just 14 times, which shows just how advanced Swanson is at this point. He remains the minor-league leader in doubles with 15 and only one other player, Midland's Ryon Healy, has more extra base hits (20-to-17).

Respect the Ruiz - 3 IBB

Intentional walks are a rarity in minor league ball. It's part of the reason you might see a major league pitcher oddly struggle with throwing intentional passes once he gets to the majors. They simply aren't asked to do it very often. No minor leaguer hitter has gotten the intentional free pass more often so far this season than Rio Ruiz, who is hitting .324/.405/.471 through 28 games. Granted, it's just three walks, but it shows how respected Ruiz is right now in a lineup full of minor league veterans.

5 Balks

So far this season, Braves minor league pitchers have committed a handful of balks. One each for Enderson Franco, Max Fried, and Mike Soroka while Carlos Salazar has two. I mention this because two pitches, Durham's Matt Andriese and Tampa's Jose Campos, each have five all to themselves. At least Braves minor leaguers aren't struggling with that.

Keeping the Ball in the Yard

Sean Newcomb and Soroka are running neck-and-neck for most innings among Braves farmhands without surrendering a homerun to start the season. Newcomb has 31.1 innings while Soroka is at 31 innings. The current minor league leader is Alex Mills, a Double-A tosser for Northwest Arkansas of the Royals organization, who has gone 36 innings so far this year without surrendering a homerun.

Durable and a Workhorse

Williams Perez may lack the stuff to be a big-time major league pitcher, but one thing he can do is give the bullpen a break. Six days after getting a rain-shortened complete game victory (he only threw 5.1 innings), Perez handled the Charlotte Knights with ease on Friday night. He gave up just one hit and walked one batter while striking out nine during the shutout. He threw 112 pitches in the win, including 76 strikes, and induced 12 groundballs and 3 pop-ups. His game score - 91. I'd call that a stellar performance.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack (4/23/16)

Time for another Saturday Stats Pack, minor league edition. Please remember to check out the major league version which looks at the Atlanta Braves' lack of power so far, pinch-hitting woes, and whether Matt Wisler is Shelby Miller 2.0.

Gwinnett - 8 players

In the early going this season, the Gwinnett Braves have used 31 players to play just 16 games. A 32nd pitches tonight in Lucas Sims. He'll become the 9th player to play for Gwinnett this year who hasn't also played in the majors at some point. That number isn't totally fair because Mallex Smith made his major league debut after beginning the year with Gwinnett, but it's still pretty surprising to see so few major league virgins in AAA.

Mississippi - 0 Strikeouts

If you follow Kyle Tait on Twitter, you will notice that the voice of the Mississippi Braves has instituted a #WilliansWatch. The hashtag refers to Willians Astudillo, signed this offseason by the Braves from the Phillies' organization. A catcher/whateveryouwanthimtoplay, Astudillo has already posted some quirky stat lines in his career. Last year, he came to the plate 418 times. He walked ten times, he struck out ten times. In nearly 1700 plate appearances during his six year career entering 2016, he had struck out just 51 times. So far this year, he's only added to the plate appearances total. After last night's game, he's up to 50 PA with no strikeouts - or walks for that matter. Going back to last season, he has gone 152 PA without a strikeout, which is damn near amazing for the deadball era, let alone a modern era of baseball. How long will the streak continue? Remember to follow Kyle Tait for all of your #WilliansWatch information.

Carolina - 17.2 K/9

Few have had a stranger start to their 2016 than Carlos Salazar, the 21 year-old right-handed reliever for the Carolina Mudcats. In five games, Salazar has struck out 14 in 7.1 ING while giving up just one hit. The bad news is that he's also walked 8 and been called for two balks. The walk rate, sadly, is not too extreme from his previous results. He clearly has an electric arm, but he'll be stuck in the minors unless he's able to turn around the flaws in his game.

Rome - 18 K's in 17 ING

It's not easy getting noticed if you're Patrick Weigel this season. Stuck in a rotation with Max Fried, Touki Toussaint, Mike Soroka, and Ricardo Sanchez, Weigel won't attrack much attention. Yet, Weigel has been just as good as any of his rotation mates in the early going. A 7th rounder out of THE Oxnard College (go Condors!), Weigel was unimpressive in his run with Danville last summer, but has been solid in his first three starts this year with a 3.6 K/BB and 2.12 ERA. If Weigel can be consistent with his delivery and throw strikes, he will definitely shed the afterthought label and enter some prospect rankings.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack (4/16/16)

In this week's Saturday Stats Pack, I take a look at the continued improvement from a third baseman prospect who languished last year, a starter making his return from double knee surgery, and a converted shortstop on who is on fire. Remember to check out this week's major league Saturday Stats Pack where I looked at Nick Markakis's tear last week, Jhoulys Chacin's debut, and some team stats related to the early struggles this year.

Gwinnett - 7 Games, 11 Hits

Rio Ruiz's season got off to an 0-for-4 start, but since then, he's had at least a hit in each of the next eight games. Over the last four, he's had exactly two-a-game, giving him a stellar .355 average. The power has also came with a homerun Thursday night, his first at the AAA level. Few Braves prospects had a more disappointing 2015 than Ruiz, when he slashed .229/.331/.318. But he made adjustments and impressed fans and players alike this spring in his brief run with the major league team. While Adonis Garcia is holding down the third base job in the bigs, the Braves may opt to get a look at Ruiz this summer in a platoon role - especially considering Garcia's defensive limitations.

Mississippi - Whalen Goes Six, Gets First Double-A Win

As surprising as John Gant may have been this spring, he was the "other guy" acquired form the Mets last summer in the Kelly Johnson / Juan Uribe trade. Robert Whalen was the real pick-up and the righty only made three starts before missing the rest of the year and undergoing surgery on both of his knees. After making his debut last week, he ended the week on a strong note with six quality innings Friday night against Montgomery. He allowed four hits, a pair of runs, and induced 8 grounders to just two flyouts. He also struck out five to just one walk. Whalen is easy to forget about in this system, but he could be a fun trade piece or help fill out a rotation if he continues to develop.

Carolina - To the Max with 13 ING, 0 runs, and 14 K's

Another pitcher who flies a bit under the radar is Max Povse, which is surprising considering his 6'8" height. The third rounder in 2014 stalled in a five-start performance last summer with Carolina after looking great in Rome before the promotion. His struggles and the fact that injury ended his year early meant that Povse would make a return trip with the Mudcats. The rest of the Carolina League might be hoping the return trip ends with a promotion soon. After six scoreless against Salem last Sunday in which he walked just one and struck out seven, Povse's follow-up was just as excellent with seven one-hit innings, a walk, and seven K's.

Rome - RPD Rides Hot Streak to 1000+ OPS

When Ray-Patrick Didder signed out of Aruba, the Braves were high on his collection of tools and they wanted him to play shortstop where he could maximize his value, but they abandoned that hope last year. Still, his bat had some upside even though he hadn't stood out yet. So far this year, the 21 year-old is standing out in a big way. He's hitting over .350 with 4 doubles and 2 triples while playing mostly right field. He has yet to homer in 162 professional games and with his slight frame, power will never be his game, but he has a quick swing that slashes the ball to the gaps. To this point, he's been more of an adventure than a plus in the running game, but he could be an interesting super utility-type to keep an eye on.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack

Each Saturday, I try to focus on a collection of interesting minor league stats that caught my eye to serve as a companion to the major league version of this series at my other site, atlantabraves.about.com. This week is difficult because I only have two games to post about for each team, but I will not let that stop me from bringing the knowledge.

Gwinnett - 5 walks

It didn't take long for Mike Foltynewicz to drive a manager crazy this season. Folty, who pitched 86.2 innings for Atlanta last year, walked five in just four innings during his first start of the 2016 season. After looking like a possible favorite to break camp this spring with the Braves, Folty remains plagued by his inability to throw enough effective strikes. Only 24, that certainly can change, but walking a handful of the 18 batters faced won't inspire much in terms of confidence.

Mississippi - Two Starts, 17 strikeouts

You can't blame the Pensacola Blue Wahoos if they feel a little shell-shocked to start the season. On Thursday, right-hander Lucas Sims took the mound for his tenth overall start at the AA level and the almost-22 year-old struck out 9 over five dominant innings. The next night, it was new Brave Chris Ellis's turn and the former Angels' third rounder struck out eight over six scoreless innings. Ellis, who started 15 games in the Double-A Texas League last year, was more dominant than Sims as he didn't walk a batter. Mississippi lost the opener 3-1, but won the game for Ellis 2-0.

Carolina - 5 errors

Keith Curcio has had a dynamite beginning of the year with an organizational-best five hits in 9 PA, but he also has an error this year and four other Mudcats, including the other two starting outfielders, join him in giving Carolina League hitters free bases. The 'Cats have pitched terribly over the first two games, but the defense certainly hasn't helped them.

Rome - 10 innings, 15 strikeouts

Much like Mississippi, it's been quite the start for the Rome staff - which is as ballyhooed as any staff in minor league baseball. First, it was 18 year-old Mike Soroka, who despite being one of league's youngest players, shut down the opposition on opening day over four innings for 7 K's next to just one walk. The next night, it was Patrick Weigel, who picked up six strikeouts in six innings. Rome would go on to win both games by outscoring the opposition 16-2. The South Atlantic League might be ready to throw up the white flag when they remember that the top two pitching prospects with Rome, Max Fried and Touki Toussaint, still haven't taken the mound.

Thanks for reading this week's Saturday Stats Pack. I'm sure next week will give me much more to blog about. Remember that you can check out the major league portion of this series by clicking this link. Some of the topics include losing streaks to begin the year, Drew Stubbs on the base-paths, Daniel Winkler's historic beginning, Fredi Gonzalez's win-loss record, and the strange lack of doubles to begin the season.

Minor League Stats Pack for September 19

One final Saturday Stats Pack for the minor league Bravos. We'll mix things up a little by not focusing too much on the team, but the end-of-season stats. If you want some more observations, but this time of the major league club, click here.

Homeruns - 15

That's how many Carolina (and briefly Gwinnett) 1B/DH Jake Schrader hit in 2015. What might surprise you about that number is that it led all Braves minor leaguers. In fact, only six players reached double digits in homeruns all year - though two of them (Austin Riley and Isranel Wilson) spent the season in short-season rookie ball.

13/12

One of the odd little nuggets that makes nerds like me excited to see ended up not happening. For a large portion of the year, Rome outfielder Joseph Daris had more triples than doubles, but a three double binge over four games changed that in sad fashion. Daris finished the year as one of just two Braves with at least 10 triples - fellow outfielder Keith Curcio also did it.

Stolen Base Crown - 57 steals

Playing full season ball helps. Mallex Smith added seven steals in September to finish his year with 57 overall split between Mississippi and Gwinnett. It gave him two more than Randy Ventura, who paced the Dominican Summer League. Of course, Ventura's number is probably even more impressive considering it came in just 58 games. Neither player competed for the top mark in the minors (which was 82) and the Braves joined the Yankees and White Sox has teams with two 50-steal guys in the minors.

One Shy

27 year-old Cedric Hunter got a small look in spring training, but the former prospect headed to Gwinnett to play 2015 and nearly did something no other Braves minor leaguer was able to do - reach 200 total bases on the year. He finished just one base short. How unusual is it for the Braves to not have someone reach 200 TB or more? The last time it happened was when Francisco Cabrera led all Braves farmhands with 198 total bases in 1989. Or to put that in another way...a year after Hunter was born.

Modified ERA Title

Who had the best ERA of a guy with at least 100 innings pitched? That would be Greg Smith, the former LSU lefty, who has logged time with the A's and Rockies over his career. He finished this year with a 2.71 ERA in 31 games, including 19 starts. Kind of surprised he didn't get look since the Braves have employed the likes of Donnie Veal.

A Trio of Workhorses

Only three pitchers in the Braves system completed multiple games. Tyrell Jenkins finished three games for Mississippi before his promotion to Gwinnett while lefty Yean Carlos Gill had three, including a shutout, between two stops at A-ball. Of course, Gil also had a 4.69 ERA overall so that's not a year anyone will write glowingly about. Leading the way for the Braves was Sean Furney, who the Braves quietly acquired for "cash considerations" shortly before the season from the D'Backs. Furney provided depth and was pretty ancient at Rome (24 years old), but when he was called onto to start, he was productive with a 3.03 ERA and FOUR complete games.

The Generic Rip-Off Rolaids Relief Award Goes to...

For Tyler Jones, it wasn't about stuff. He had plenty of stuff. But could he consistently spot it? Cast off by the Twins as spring training came to a close, the Braves added Jones and after breezing through a month with Carolina, he finished the year with 39 games in Mississippi. Overall, he led the system with 22 saves and could be a guy that might surprise some people next spring.

Strikeouts? What's that?

While the Braves have developed a lot of power arms to come out of the pen - Bradley Roney led them with 70 K's in 48.1 ING - getting K's from the starter was not something Atlanta saw much of this year. Only four pitchers reached 100 K's, led by 22 year-old Brandon Barker and his 109. Lucas Sims needed a strong finish with Mississippi to make it four as he reached 100 even K's in his final game when he K'd 7 Jacksonville Suns in as many innings.

Everyone Hold Onto Your Butts

I've talked about how disappointing this season was for Alec Grosser before, but really, this year was so terribly bad, it deserves another mention. In 85.1 ING, Grosser walked 65 batters. That's a sophomorically funny rate of 6.9 BB/9. But where Grosser's numbers get exceedingly awful is with these two nuggets. He hit 16 players during the year and uncorked 26 wild pitches. I wonder if the PA system had to make an announcement to get those gloves up because Grosser has absolutely no idea where it's going. The odd thing is that Grosser was fairly good with Danville in 2014 (3.1 BB/9, 6 HBP, 4 WP in 63.1 ING). I'll say this - if you are going to suck, spectacularly suck.

What Jersey Do I Wear Today?

This is not really stats-related, but just to shine light on poor Joey Terdoslavich this year. Due to rehab assignments and demotions, Terdo logged time with five different teams this season. He began the year with Rome, went to Carolina next, then Mississippi, and onto the majors before a few demotions to Gwinnett. His stop in Mississippi included just one game. Well, at least he got to see the southeast.