Transaction Tuesday: What a Week It Was!

It was a very eventful week for the Atlanta Braves' system so no dilly-dallying. Let's dive in.

*The moves covered in this edition of Transaction Tuesday cover July 10 to July 17. A number in parenthesis represents the player's ranking in the midseason WOW Top 50.

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Atlanta
Activated: Sean Rodriguez...From a possibility to miss the season to making his Braves debut on July 17. Say what you will about the Braves, but their players don't seem to miss as much time as other teams. Much has been made about Sean-Rod's brief and ultimately unproductive rehab stint for the Braves as he went 3-for-39 with 12 Ks. But don't get caught i[ in the stats too much when it comes to rehab stints. It's all about timing and the Braves likely felt his timing was back - plus he didn't have much time left available to rehab. Moving on, where does Rodriguez fit in? When originally signed, Rodriguez looked like a possibility to share time at second base and third base - along with filling in elsewhere as needed. The Braves now have Brandon Phillips at second base and either Freddie Freeman or Johan Camargo available to play third base. Regardless, Rodriguez should be used frequently when a left-hander is on the mound (.332 wOBA, 111 wRC+ against LHP the last three years). That could mean playing third base like he did yesterday evening or spelling Nick Markakis, who hasn't hit lefties much at all over the last two-and-a-half seasons. Rodriguez is a great player to have on your bench for what he brings to the team and fortunately, this version of the Braves can use him properly as previous year's teams would have overexposed him from playing him too often.

Activated: Danny Santana...During his three-game rehab stint, Santana enjoyed his stay with Gwinnett. In the second game, he went a spectacular 5-for-5 with a double and a steal. He added two more hits the next day before returning to the Braves. Santana has been better with the Braves than he was with the Twins, but much of that is due to Santana being awful with Minnesota to open the season. Santana is a decent enough fit for the Braves, though. He's a switch-hit bat who can play a number of positions and provides a little bit of a speed factor off the bench. Plus, for fans of the Braves, it helps that his name isn't Emilio Bonifacio.

Transferred from 10-day DL to 60-day DL: Armando Rivero (strained right shoulder)...We haven't heard from the hard-throwing righty all year. Some of this may be gamesmanship, but Rivero has been stuck on the DL since early this spring and there has been almost nothing written about it. No ramping up for a rehab stint. No updates on progress. Nothing. Don't plan on seeing Rivero this season.

DL: Jason Motte (back strain)...The Braves have been fortunate this year with a number of players who've had results that were much more favorable than their metrics. Motte is one of those players. With a 3.76 ERA over 31 games, one might say he's been serviceable. When you add in his 18% strikeout rate, 9% walk rate, 17% HR/FB rate, and 30% hard-hit ball rate...you start to get concerned when you see him get the call from Brian Snitker. And to be honest, Motte has been this guy ever since Tommy John surgery took him out of commission in 2013 while with the Cardinals. In the three years before 2017, spent with three different teams, Motte had an 18% strikeout rate, a 7% walk rate, a 12% HR/FB rate, and a 35% hard-hit ball rate. His ERA during that time was 60 points higher. The smart money is on Motte's ERA getting that high again.

Gwinnett

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Promoted from Mississippi: Ronald Acuna (#1)...This one was a biggy. Acuna began the year in Florida and after a month of doing well (but not overwhelming awesome), he received a bit of a surprising promotion. He followed that up by destroying the Southern League to the tune of .326/.374/.520. At the ripe old age of 19, he was a Double-A All-Star and if you weren't already paying attention, he put a show on in batting practice at the Futures Game and in the field during the game. Acuna only played 40 games in Low-A last year and now, he could be an injury away from being called up to start in the Show. Not one to rest on his laurels, Acuna went 6-for-21 over his first five games at Triple-A with two doubles and a pair of home runs. It's easy to overhype prospects, but Acuna keeps reminding us that occasionally, the prospect deserves the hype.

Rehab: Arodys Vizcaino...Placed on the DL last week with an index finger strain, Vizcaino's rehab assignment is not planned to last long. He threw a perfect inning to start Monday's game and struck out one. Returning to Atlanta healthy and productive won't just help the Braves, but also revisit some early July rumors about Vizcaino being a target for contending teams. Vizcaino has closer experience, the ability to reach triple digits on the gun, and has great composure on the mound. Surely someone will be interested in him provided he's good to go. Of course, Atlanta might not be anxious to trade him depending on how the next week goes.

Activated: Caleb Dirks (#40)...Dirks hasn't been as lights-out as he was before this season. His 3.59 FIP would be a new full-season high and he's already surrendered four homers this season after giving up just seven over three seasons. That said, he's still carrying a 29% strikeout rate and a 8% walk rate and that's very impressive. His activation ends a nearly month-long stay on the DL. It was just his second trip to the DL since joining the organization following the 2014 draft. Dirks has routinely posted very solid numbers in the past and could be in line for a shot at the bigs very soon.

Recalled and Optioned: Jason Hursh (#42)...Five times. That's how many times Hursh has been optioned to the minors this season. His latest call-up of three days wasn't even the shortest one of 2017 for the righty. All the while, he's thrown 5.2 innings while allowing one run, two unintentional walks, and four Ks while a member of the Braves bullpen. He also appeared in 23 games between Gwinnett and Mississippi with five saves and is flowing with a 3.11 ERA and a similar FIP as well. Personally, I would like a much longer look for Hursh. It's difficult to know which of these borderline prospects are keepers with so little time to impress before being passed over for higher-rated prospects. They need to get their chance and show something very quickly. Hursh has done well when called upon, but can't seem to stay in the majors long enough to establish himself. The longer this continues, the more likely it is for Hursh to get lost in the shuffle.

Optioned: Micah Johnson...With Johnson healthy, but no spot for him in the majors, he was optioned to Gwinnett. Acquired in a trade in mid-January with the Dodgers, Johnson was on his way to make the roster this spring before a fractured left wrist on a dive took him out of the competition. He's appeared nine times since beginning his rehab stint and has looked fairly good (11-for-31, 2B, 3 BB, 8 K, 5 SB). A former second baseman, Johnson has only played the outfield this season. As the Braves cycle Acuna all over the outfield, Johnson will likely be the guy playing center when Acuna isn't.

Optioned: Jace Peterson...For the third time this season, the Braves option Peterson to the minors. He's been tremendous with Gwinnett so they are happy to have him back. His most recent appearance in the majors includes three games as a pinch-hitter. He made the final one a memorable one, smacking a ball into the Chop House for his first homer since last August 21. That one was pretty memorable, too, as it was a walk-off bomb off Shawn Kelley to beat the Nationals. Despite his mammoth homer on Saturday, he just hasn't done enough to justify a spot in the majors. He's a useful player when an injury opens a spot as he can play all over, but he's earned an AAAA label right now.

Outrighted and traded: Chaz Roe...It's bad enough to be waived and have no teams claim you. But Roe's frustrations grew Monday night as he was charged with three runs as the Braves wasted an excellent Lucas Sims non-start (6 ING, 3 ER, 11 Ks in relief of Vizcaino). Roe broke camp with the team this spring largely because he was out-of-options. After a trio of ugly appearances, he landed on the DL with a lat strain. He made four appearances in the minors over two rehab stints (a flare-up stopped his rehab once), but the Braves passed on bringing back to Atlanta. (Update...today saw Roe traded to Tampa for cash.)

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Tyler Neslony (#46)...A ninth rounder drafted largely because the Braves needed to cut some corners to sign higher-rated prospects, Neslony was a surprising force at the plate for the Fire Frogs. He slashed .309/.378/.442. Included was an attempt to teach the former Texas Tech star first base. That didn't go so hot (9 errors in less than 200 innings), but Neslony will continue to move up the ladder. To this point, Neslony has shown a knack for hitting righties (.310/.377/.457) and could develop into a platoon bat who can play the outfield corners and the occasional first base. He's off to a 4-for-16 start in Double-A with a double, a walk, and two strikeouts since the promotion. He's played only outfield so far.

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Promoted from Florida: Austin Riley (#13)...A lot of the high-profile promotions last week made sense, but Riley's was a bit confusing. He wasn't exactly lighting it up at Florida and, at 20-years-old, was still young for the level. Nevertheless, Atlanta promoted the strong third baseman for a trial-by-fire in the Southern League. With Florida, Riley was hitting .252/.310/.408 with a dozen homers. He's yet to show improved plate discipline, though he did shave off 5% off his strikeout rate from last season. His ISO was also down 50 points so there's that. Honestly, this is the one promotion I absolutely don't understand. Riley's first five games included four hits, including a home run last night, and two walks along with five K's.

Promoted from Florida: Jacob Webb...Needing a new challenge, Webb heads up to the Southern League. In 22 games with Florida this year, Webb K'd 48 in 41.1 innings with a 1.74 ERA. For Webb, he's making up for lost time. After being plucked in the 18th round all the way back in 2014, Webb was solid in 33.2 innings in the GCL. He was a rising prospect before feeling a pop in his elbow on the first day of minor league spring training in 2015. After the dreaded TJS, Webb returned in 2016 to throw 13 innings before being unleashed this season. For more on Webb, check out my Random Prospect Sunday column from early March.

Demoted from Gwinnett: Enrique Burgos...Gwinnett has a blog that regularly gives updates on the team. Last week, they profiled Burgos. Acquired the same day the Braves picked up Matt Adams, Burgos was struggling in the Arizona system. However, he's been nothing but great with Gwinnett. In 13 games, he's allowed a single run in 14 innings. For that matter, he's only allowed three hits. Add in the seven walks and 17 strikeouts and you have a reliever who is flourishing. So why the demotion? The Gwinnett bullpen is getting quite full with veterans.

Demoted from Gwinnett: Stephen Gaylor...This is the eleventh Transaction Tuesday I've done this season and Gaylor has shown up four times. Such is the life of organizational depth. Gaylor has split 30 games between Double-A and Triple-A and actually has slightly better numbers in Triple-A. His value to the Braves is in his defense, speed, and the fact the Braves trust him to just do his job no matter how much they jerk him around. These guys don't get a lot of love in prospect rankings, but they serve a purpose for the organization.

DL: Jesse Biddle (#47)...The former top Phillies prospect has been quietly solid for the M-Braves. Over 27 games, all out of the pen, Biddle has struck out a quarter of all batters while displaying the best control of his career. No word on what pushed him to the DL. He did reach 49.2 innings in fairly quick order. If he doesn't miss much time - or isn't on too restrictive of an innings limit - Biddle could be in line for a promotion if the Braves are so inclined.

DL: Bradley Roney...On-and-off the DL. That's been Roney's season. The good news is that he's striking out a ton of batters for Mississippi. And I mean a ton. 35.3%. Of course, with Roney, it always comes down to the but. In this case, it's a "but, he's also walked 17%." Now 24-years-old, Roney has logged just 18 total games this year - 15 in Double-A. He has yet to show any significant advancement. You can't strike out everyone and you certainly can't get by walking every fifth batter.

Florida
Promoted from Rome: Justin Ellison...A toolsy 12th rounder back in 2015, Ellison was easy to forget about heading into 2017. Last year, his first above rookie-level, the outfielder batted .247/.304/.370 while showing decent range and good speed (18 steals). However, the triple slash and presence of guys higher on the depth chart kept him in Rome to open this season. His 45-game run in Rome was hardly noteworthy and he was in the midst of some struggles at the time of his promotion, but in his defense, he did flash some strong overall numbers against righties (.271/.321/.481) and was humming before the All-Star Break stopped his mojo. Ellison has worked to cut down on his swing, but it's still long and with a pronounced uppercut. There are some qualities here that deserve second and third looks, though. He's a project, but with plus athletism already in his toolbag.

Promoted from Rome: Brandon White...With back-to-back picks, the Braves selected a pair of Brandon White's. This particular one is the 12th-round variation. The 13th-round one was cut and last played for Southern Illinois in the Frontier League. A righty out of Lander University in South Carolina, Brandon Steven White was solid for Danville last year and so far this season, he's built on that success while serving as Rome's closer. His ten saves is five more than second place in the organization. He also struck out nearly a batter an inning and showed solid control. In his first outing with Florida, he surrendered a solo home run and struck out two over a pair of frames.

Demoted from Mississippi: Andrew Daniel...Signed near the end of June, Daniel went 2-for-21 with Mississippi, but his demotion was about the guy he effectively replaces in the Florida lineup - Austin Riley. After a good debut in the Pioneer League back in 2014, Daniel hasn't shown much offense since. He'll try to change that with Florida.

Promoted to Mississippi and Demoted Back: Junior Rincon...Speaking of recent signees, Rincon was part of this column last week. He made one appearance during a stay in the Southern League and allowed a run in one inning. His only outing with Florida, which came before the promotion, saw Rincon surrendered three runs over 1.2 ING.

Rome
Promoted from Danville: Ryan Schlosser...Ryan Thomas Schlosser is the oldest-looking 21-year-old I have ever seen. A 32nd rounder a year ago, Schlosser was used as a closer with the GCL squad before a late-season promotion to Danville. He started this year with the APPY club and looked decent enough in six games before this promotion. Schlosser is a sinker baller we are still trying to get a good handle on because we haven't seen much out of the big kid from the small college. I will say this - he's a fun guy. Danville recently did a fidget spinner giveaway and he traded a bat to a kid for one of them.

Promoted from Danville: Izzy Wilson (#41)...Is there a faster outfield in the minors than Cristian Pache, Randy Ventura, and Izzy Wilson? Possibly, but these guys are flyers. Izzy came onto the scene with a big GCL campaign in 2015 where he belted ten homers in just 48 games. He also walked a bunch - along with striking out a whole lot. A lot was hoped for when the 2016 season opened for Danville, but Wilson was marred in a season-long slump that ended with a .591 OPS and just two homers. A return assignment was given to Wilson and he did not disappoint. He continued to strike out a lot but got on base at a .338 clip with a nearly .300 ISO over 17 games. The Braves took pity on the Appalachian League pitchers and brought Wilson to Rome. Four games in, he's struck out seven times. He's also doubled and swiped a pair of bases. Wilson is a fun prospect because there is a lot here to like. Can he put it together enough to be a Top-30 or Top-20 prospect for the Braves? He'll have to clean up his game (career .215 hitter so far with 129 K's in 107 games), but the power and speed combination - along with good defense - should keep Wilson in the discussion.

Danville
Promoted from GCL: Walter Borkovich...Undrafted out of Michigan State, Borkovich was a four-year performer for the Spartans. He was a control artist who didn't get many strikeouts while in school, which predictably didn't grab much draft attention. Signing with the Braves after the draft, Borkovich appeared twice in the GCL and tossed four scoreless innings. His first outing in Danville resulted in his first professional win as he went 2.2 scoreless innings with 4 Ks. He's not a big prospect by any means, but Borkovich was clocked in the mid-90's in college so he's not just throwing junk up there. He didn't do enough to get drafted, but the Braves have a knack for finding undrafted kids and turning them into something useful.

Promoted from GCL: Jasseel De La Cruz...A late addition to the 2014-15 signing class, Cruz struggled in 2015 before shaving off three-and-a-half runs off his ERA last year in a second stint in the DSL. His success warranted a promotion to the Gulf Coast League to finish 2016 and he was dominant with 15 scoreless innings, four hits allowed, a walk, and 12 Ks. It's a bit surprising he returned to GCL to open this season, but there was a method to Atlanta's madness. They wanted to change him over to a starter and over four starts, Cruz had a 1.89 ERA. Atlanta ran out of reasons to keep him in the GCL and he heads to Danville. Cruz could be a guy who climbs up the prospect ladder with some strong numbers in Danville.

Promoted from GCL: Kevin Maitan (#4)...Well, that was quick. After just nine games in the GCL, the Braves send the 17-year-old switch-hitter to Danville to continue his professional career. Did we learn anything in the GCL? Well, Maitan did strike out ten times in 37 PA. That's not great. He also reached base 13 times, which is pretty good for the first nine games of your career. Through two games in Danville, Maitan is 2-for-8 with 3 Ks. He's also mercifully moved Derian Cruz over to second base, which might be a better spot for the 2015-16 top signee. Between the two, the Braves have spent $6.25M. They'll gladly spend more if they progress to the majors - especially with Maitan, who is one of those "the sky is the limit" players.

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Promoted from GCL: Drew Waters (#22)...Maitan got nine games in the GCL - Waters received 14. Regardless, the do-everything outfielder was explosive, hitting .347/.448/.571 with three doubles, a triple, and two home runs. He stole a pair of bases and walked seven times. Not too shabby for the switch-hitting prospect. He added three more hits, including a double, in his two-game run with the D-Braves so far. Our own Stephen Tolbert is convinced Waters will soon be the Braves' best outfield prospect once Acuna graduates to the majors. So far, he looks right on.

GCL
Demoted from Danville: Gilbert Suarez...Roster spots were needed and Suarez returns to the GCL, where he's spent the two last two years following his 18th round selection back in 2015. Suarez was excellent for GCL a year ago with only two earned runs in 23.2 ING but was absolutely lit up in six games with Danville. As a team, the D-Braves have allowed 15 home runs. Four have come on pitches from Suarez. His ERA was 12.60 in 10 innings. So, this wasn't just a roster numbers thing in regards to Suarez. The righty came into professional baseball with a low-90's fastball, a good-looking curve, and what may have been a changeup. But in his third year, his inability to figure out the APPY League is troubling. Worse, his first game back in the GCL didn't go so hot as he was saddled with two earned runs in an inning and a third - tying the amount of ER he gave up in 23.2 innings last year.

Demoted from Danville: Ramon Taveras...Just promoted, Tavarez returns to the GCL without toeing the mound for the D-Braves. This is his fourth year of professional ball and he's yet to appear in a game for Atlanta's top rookie-league team - let alone progress into A-ball. Nothing really stands out about his numbers. He's been mostly a reliever and not a very successful one. At this rate, it would be shocking to see Taveras in 2018 for the Braves unless he starts to build some momentum quick.

DSL
All quiet on the Dominican front.

Spring Roster Battles Preview - The Bullpen

Read previous Spring Roster Battles Previews
Fifth Starter

The bullpen was decent enough in the first half for the Atlanta Braves, but in the second half, it took off. As a team, they had a FIP of 3.48 in 264.2 innings in the second half. Luck may have played a role as their xFIP was nearly a run higher. That is a result, I believe, of less-than-stellar walk totals and an unsustainable 6% HR/FB rate. Regardless, it was an improvement and gives the Braves something to spring into next year with.

Atlanta plans on utilizing an eight-man bullpen to open 2017. I believe that is a mistake and ultimately will be a short-lived experiment that will be scrapped when the team needs an extra bat, but let's assume that the bullpen is eight pitchers deep when the season begins. We have a good idea who four of the names will be: Jim Johnson, Arodys Vizcaino, Ian Krol, and Mauricio Cabrera. Who will be the other half? Let's see who is in the picture.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

The Surprise Second-Half Contributors: Jose Ramirez and Chaz Roe

Both are out of options. Both have always interested teams because of their raw talent. Both...sometimes can't find the strike zone. And finally, both had a really nice summer for the Braves bullpen. Will either last into 2017?

Ramirez began the year in the bullpen for the Braves, but after two appearances, he was slipped off the 40-man roster and went down to Gwinnett. He found his way there and was back in the majors for July. At that point, we saw a pitcher who had lowered his arm angle, which appeared to help him get the ball down more. From the point he returned to the Braves to the end of the season, he had a 3.44 FIP to go with a 4.86 xFIP.

Meanwhile, Roe was picked off waivers in early August and joined the Braves immediately. He was superb over 20 games, striking out 33% of the batters he faced while walking just 9%. Like Ramirez, the Braves changed his arm angle slightly and upped his slider usage dramatically to the point that nearly 60% of his pitches were his slider. The results were not only a 64% groundball rate with the Braves, but a 44% outside-the-strike zone swing percentage (PITCHf/x).

Of the two, Roe is more interesting to me. A sinker/slider pitcher, he appeared to land with a perfect pitching coach in Roger McDowell, who preached sinkers as a way to induce weak grounders. Both could be kept to at least start to the season for the same reason Ramirez was kept last year (bubble player, out-of-options).

Finally Healthy? Jesse Biddle and Paco Rodriguez 

A sly pickup by John Coppolella last spring, Biddle is coming back from Tommy John surgery. How far along he is will help decide if he competes for a roster spot this spring. I'm under the impression that he'll head to the minors so the Braves can better monitor his innings, but if that curveball is back, Biddle could be in the mix.

The Braves have been waiting since the southpaw's trade from the Dodgers to add "Paco's Tacos" to the menu. Now, the former 82nd overall pick of the 2012 draft seems ready to finally pitch for the Braves after missing all of the second half of 2015 and 2016 with injuries.

If healthy, there is little question that Paco Rodriguez is a weapon. In 124 games in the majors spanning 85.1 innings, Rodriguez has a 2.98 FIP, 3.00 xFIP, and 2.82 SIERA. Lefties are completely clueless against Rodriguez and have managed a .220 wOBA against him while Rodriguez has sent 35% of them back to the dugout with a K. His numbers against righties aren't nearly as amazing, though he has held his own (.271 wOBA, 3.88 xFIP) to believe he has more potential than just a LOOGY.

Again, we have to preface this with "if healthy," but if he is, the Braves will have a duo of left-handed arms that other teams will envy - and be interested in trading for in Krol and Rodriguez.

The Rule 5 Twins: Armando Rivero and Daniel Winkler

Rivero had a 2.84 FIP and 37.4% strikeout percentage in Triple-A last year. In any other system, he would have received an opportunity to thrive in the majors, but the Cubs were kind of good last year so he was left in the minors. He'll have an opportunity to win a spot on this year's team and I think he has a very good chance of doing just that.

Daniel Winkler seems likely to begin 2017 on the disabled list after his horrific fractured elbow on April 11 last year. At the time, he was off to a wonderful start to his season by striking out half of the eight batters he faced. It looked like the righty with the violent delivery could help the Braves in 2016.

When - and if - he is able to help the Braves this season is a mystery. Even if he's able to, he might not get much of a look considering the depth the Braves have. To keep him, the Braves will have to put him on the 25-man roster for nearly two months once he's healthy to fulfill his Rule 5 requirements or offer him back to the Rockies, who always need pitching.

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via Wikimedia Commons

Taking a Flyer: Blaine Boyer, Sam Freeman, Eric O'Flaherty, Jordan Walden

If you missed the news, Walden's contract was voided this week as we are not seeing the progression in his rehab that had been expected.

Blaine Boyer was added a month ago after failing to secure a major league contract from anyone. This was despite some pretty good traditional numbers since he made it back to the majors in 2014 (171.1 innings, 3.31 ERA, 1.28 WHIP). Sabermetrics are a little less impressed with a 3.73 FIP and 4.39 xFIP. The big reason is while Boyer does a good job limiting walks and keeping the ball in the yard, he doesn't miss many bats (4.6 K/9, 12.4% K% over last three years). Instead, he works off weak contact and inducing enough grounders to be successful. He's the epitome of an older style of pitching where you let your defense do its job and just focus on out-thinking the other hitter. All that matters is that it works. Over the last three years, Boyer has been a 1.1 fWAR reliever, which isn't great but ranks him 99th among 163 qualified relievers. It wasn't enough to get a major league deal, but he'll have a chance to be on the roster when the season begins.

Sam Freeman was an early pickup this offseason. Freeman has been in the majors in each of the last five seasons with his best work coming in 2014 as a member of the Cardinals. That season, he carried a 3.79 FIP and 3.92 xFIP. Unlike many southpaw options, Freeman has reverse splits, which limits his appeal. He's more likely to be a third lefty out of the pen and even then, his limitations against left-handers make that unlikely.

Eric O'Flaherty was brought back on a minor-league deal after being a last-minute addition to the roster last spring. Knee and elbow injuries limited him to 39 games last year and he wasn't particularly effective either. He had surgery on his left elbow last September to help with the tension and should be good-to-go as camp opens. His pitches last year lacked that typical O'Flaherty sink. We'll see if the surgery helped to fix that this spring.

Starting Candidates Left Over: Josh Collmenter, John Danks, Joel De La Cruz

Of this trio, Collmenter seems like the good bet to be part of the final mix. He was brought back on a $2M contract rather than being non-tendered and the Braves like his experience as a swingman who throws strikes. In an eight-man bullpen, there's certainly room for the long guy.

Depth for Gwinnett's starting staff, De La Cruz will get some innings - especially early in camp - but seems destined for a reassignment at some point. Danks could be an intriguing option, though. He's had major league success and is a bit tougher on lefties. With that said, he's going to need a tremendous spring to get in the mix for a spot out of the pen.

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Prospects: Caleb Dirks, Jason Hursh, Luke Jackson, A.J. Minter, Akeel Morris, Lucas Sims

This is a fun group and a mini-bullpen in its own right. While Dirks flies under the radar, the results are clearly there. In 110 games and 143.1 innings, Dirks has a 1.32 ERA, a 28% strikeout rate, and a 8% walk rate (intentional passes not included). He's allowed just six homeruns as well. Dirks lacks the big stuff or high velocity of other prospects, but in a results-driven business, he's got the resume. I imagine he'll be given a chance to produce at Gwinnett first, though.

A converted starter and former first-round pick, Hursh spent most of 2016 at Mississippi, which was the third consecutive season he did that. Hursh did pitch twice in the majors and also eight times with Gwinnett. If Bobby Cox was still the manager, he might look at Hursh as the next Kevin Gryboski and utilize him in as a "rally killer" who induces double plays. Hursh has never really lived up to his billing and probably won't start in 2017.

Speaking of haven't lived up to his billing, Luke Jackson was picked up in the Tyrell Jenkins trade. He quickly climbed to Triple-A, but has not been able to gain much momentum there. In two brief trips to the majors, he has struggled to find the strike zone and keep hitters from finding the seats when he does. The appeal is still there with Jackson hitting triple digits on the gun with an inconsistent, but devastating at times curveball. If the Braves can get him to locate his pitches and find consistency with his mechanics, he could be a high-leverage arm for them as soon as this year.

In A.J. Minter, the Braves have their "best relief prospect since Craig Kimbrel." They also have a potential x-factor for their bullpen if they feel he's ready to unleash on the National League in 2017. With a 97 mph heater that has amazing movement and a unique slider that darts into lefties and away from righties, Minter has two major-league quality offerings. If he can stay healthy, he can give the Braves yet another power arm that other teams have to game plan around in late innings. He has yet to throw in back-to-back games, but if he can cross that hurdle, the sky is the limit for his 2017 campaign.

Akeel Morris has been quietly effective for a few years now and while he doesn't have the ceiling of a Minter, he still has potential to work himself into high-leverage situations with his three-pitch mix of a mid 90's heater, solid changeup, and a slider that could make-or-break his career depending on how well he develops it. His delivery appears to come out of whack from time-to-time and I really worry about his long-term health considering how much his arm drags behind him before the ball is released. I believe his likely destination will be Gwinnett, but being already on the 40-man only helps his chances.

Finally, there is Lucas Sims. I am only including him on the chance the Braves get enamored with his potential as a reliever this spring. My belief is that he heads to Gwinnett and battles to climb the starting pitching depth chart, but many feel he is destined for a relief role at some point. Will that be 2017? It's possible.

To Sum Up...

I just gave you 18 options for four spots. Some of them are better bets than others, of course. It's hard to really nail down just what the Braves will do with the bullpen, though my bet is conservative to start the season. I think the six prospects I named are all destined for Gwinnett - though one or two could be pushed to Mississippi because of numbers. That brings us down to a dozen options. Winkler is likely to begin the year on the DL while Biddle probably needs to be brought back slowly. Now, we have ten options and I believe you can further lower that by removing De La Cruz and Danks from the discussion.

Four spots, eight names. My bet is that the Braves go with Collmenter and the two out-of-options guys in Ramirez and Roe. In that scenario, the final spot will be a three-way battle between Boyer, Freeman, and O'Flaherty - one likely to be won by Boyer. That would give us a bullpen of Johnson, Vizcaino, Krol, Cabrera, Ramirez, Roe, Boyer, and Collmenter to start the year.

If you don't like that bullpen, don't despair. The chances of the bullpen lasting even a month without injury or poor play forcing a move is minimal. At that point, we might see guys like Dirks, Jackson, Minter, and Morris start to work their way onto the team in a potentially permanent way. We could also see the Braves scrap the eight-man idea for a more conventional seven-man bullpen - which I definitely would prefer.

What does your bullpen look like? Think the Braves will go younger or do you agree that they will be more conservative to start the year? Let me know in the comments.

The 2017 Braves Bullpen Could be Something Special

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

In the early months of the 2016 season, the Atlanta Braves had a big problem. Their bullpen was one of the worst in baseball. InApril, the pen combined for a 5.10 ERA and -0.1 fWAR. This was largely due to walks, something that no other team was worse at than the Braves before May. They weren't being aided in any way by a .326 BABIP, third worst in the majors. Atlanta used 14 different guys in a relief role during the month, including Matt Wisler, which is less than ideal when you consider the team was a month into the season.

But things would begin to change. In May, they finished with a monthly ERA of 3.91 (next to a 3.26 FIP) and dropped to the middle of the pack in walks as a percentage. Meanwhile, they continued to strike out a ton of guys. Even more, they were starting to find a group of guys to rely on. Arodys Vizcaino was deadly during the first few months and after early season issues, Jim Johnson would return after an injury and flourish. The unsung hero, though, was Ian Krol. After being cut in camp, Krol came back to the majors with a vengeance and developed into the best full-inning lefthander the Braves have had in a few years.

The pen would continue to move guys in-and-out, but by August, they had found a few new arms to rely on. Mauricio Cabrera surprised many by throwing strikes while the Braves were getting big lifts from Chaz Roe and Jose Ramirez. By the final month, the Braves' pen was reaching elite status.

Let's look forward to 2017. While the Braves have been busy adding depth to the starting rotation, the pen hasn't been reshaped much at all. The team re-upped with Johnson, who had a 2.29 FIP and 3.09 xFIP after returning from the DL in June. They added a number of arms to compete for innings, but left the pen to be decided later.

Turns out that may have been a good idea.

In Johnson, Krol, Vizcaino, and Cabrera, the Braves have a quartet of pitchers who combined for a 25% strikeout rate, a 9% walk rate, 3.1 fWAR, and a FIP of about 3.10 (take with a grain of salt as I used an average). That's including Vizcaino's late struggles after he fought oblique and shoulder issues.

Of course, one might and maybe should rain on my parade. Of the four I mention, only Johnson has a real history of success (and a recent history of great failure). It's important to remember that, but anytime you can realistically head into the season with a core of four arms that put up the kind of success this quartet did last season, you have to feel good about the future.

Those four can't do it alone, though. How good the Atlanta Braves bullpen in 2017 depends on who fills out the other slots. Braves fans remember just how badly the Braves struggled down the stretch in 2011 as the trio of Craig Kimbrel, Jonny Venters, and Eric O'Flaherty began to struggle with the workload because Bobby Cox lacked competent options to fill in. Brian Snitker may not have to worry about that, though, because there are a number of exciting arms to jump from J.V. to Varsity.

I mentioned Ramirez and Roe before. Neither has had much success in the majors, but both pitched exceptionally well down the stretch. Ramirez has some issues - his 5.03 xFIP suggests he may struggle moving forward. Roe, on the other hand, had an even better FIP (1.75) and xFIP (2.75) than his ERA of 3.60. A groundball pitcher who K'd well over a batter an inning with good control? More of that, please.

Daniel Winkler and Shae Simmons have one thing in common. If healthy, each can be x-factors in anyone's pen. Add Luke Jackson to the discussion and even if only one of that trio becomes a trusted asset in 2017, it'll bring the core four some depth to allow them to have nights off without the Brave manager getting a bit antsy about their replacements.

By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA (P. Rodriguez)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Left-hander Paco Rodriguez hasn't pitched in the majors since May 29, 2015, but don't sleep on him being a big part of the 2017 pen. In 85.1 innings in the majors, Rodriguez has a 2.98 FIP/3.00 xFIP built on solid control and an excellent strikeout rate. He's been deadly in high leverage (opposing .202 wOBA) and righties have only been moderately more successful than lefties (.271 wOBA versus .220).

I can go on. Rule 5 pick Armando Rivero has upside, veterans Eric O'Flaherty and Jordan Walden could be salvageable, John Danks has left-hand reliever potential, and Josh Collmenter has value in long relief. Young arms like Bradley Roney, Evan Phillips, Steve Janas, Akeel Morris, Chad Sobotka, Caleb Dirks, and Kyle Kinman need only to take that next step like Mauricio Cabrera.

And then, there is a guy like A.J. Minter. If you look up the word "dominance" in the dictionary, there is a picture of Minter. In nearly 35 innings last year over three stops, Minter K'd 47 next to just 11 walks. We knew he was a first round talent when the Braves drafted him in 2015 and once finally healthy, he put on a show. What can he do over a full season?

A hidden weapon might have been those veteran starters the Braves picked up. Only four more teams had bullpens that logged more innings than the Braves (567.1 innings) and only one made more calls to the pen. That's in no small part of a cause of a starting rotation that averaged 5.5 innings per game, 19th best in the majors. Of the ten playoff teams, only the Dodgers and Orioles were worse. Aaron Blair (15 starts) and Williams Perez (11 starts) each failed to average 5 innings a start. Bartolo Colon averaged 5.8 innings per start despite being 43 years old. R.A. Dickey also averaged 5.8 while Jaime Garcia averaged 5.5 innings per start. If you add that to Julio Teheran's workhorse 6.3 innings per start and Mike Foltynewicz's 5.6 innings per start, you get an average of roughly 5.8 innings per start. That would have have been right in tune with the Washington Nationals, Cleveland Indians, and New York Mets - all playoff teams in 2016. While the difference of .3 innings per start may not wow you, it's like having your starting staff throw 40 to 60 more innings. Not only will the extra innings likely be quality frames, they will put less of a strain on your bullpen.

Listen, I know there are nearly as many questions about this bullpen as there are reasons to be excited. But despite the fact that the Braves have refused to significantly alter a bullpen that finished 2016 14th in fWAR and 24th in xFIP, I believe that the pen is destined for very big things next year and beyond. Sure, not all things will go the Braves' way and relievers have a tendency to just "lose it." Nevertheless, this pen has a chance to be pretty special.

Where Does the Braves Roster Sit Right Now?

After a number of moves, it might be confusing to know where the Braves stand right now with two months to go before pitchers-and-catchers report to camp. Let's take a look at how the roster is shaping up.

Rotation (in no particular order)
Julio Teheran
Bartolo Colon
Jaime Garcia
R.A. Dickey

In the mix: One might think Mike Foltynewicz has the fifth starter job fairly locked up after posting a 4.24 FIP/4.18 xFIP/4.13 SIERA with improved groundball rates and control lover 22 starts last season. I know I felt that way - right up until I read this article in which Braves GM John Coppolella lays down the gauntlet and says "pitch better" if you feel you are owed a chance to join the rotation.

Still, Folty has to be in the favorite to reclaim a spot in the rotation. But, if not him, who else? Well, the recent trades of John Gant, Robert Whalen, Tyrell Jenkins, and the release of Williams Perez have cleared up things to an extent. Folty's main competition looks to be Matt Wisler and Aaron Blair for the time being. Wisler was one of the guys Coppy talked about being handed a chance after a decent September 2015 finish was parlayed into him getting a rotation spot to open 2016. Over 156.2 innings, Wisler had a 4.85 FIP and 4.71 xFIP. Atlanta needs to see more and quickly. Blair was lit up over 15 starts in the majors last year. He's carried a good deal of hype as he climbed the minor league ladder, but never posted overwhelming stats to match the praise.

Other options include Josh Collmenter, who the Braves brought back on a one-year deal, and Jesse Biddle, a former top prospect for the Phillies who missed all of last year with injury. The next two star starting prospects on the cusp of joining the fray are Sean Newcomb and Lucas Sims, though it would take an amazing spring for them to leapfrog into the fifth starter role.

By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

The Bullpen (assuming seven are kept)
Jim Johnson
Ian Krol
Arodys Vizcaino
Mauricio Cabrera

In the mix: With middle relievers getting paid handsomely this winter, the Braves have shied away from a crazy market in order to put together a collection of legitimate options along with shedding others from the mix like Chris Withrow and Ryan Weber.

Assuming, again, that there are seven total bullpen spots - right now I would include openings for three relievers - including at least one lefty. We'll get to them in a second, but there are plenty of right-handers available and one, the previously mentioned Collmenter, might already have his name in pen even if I don't do the same here. Jose Ramirez and Chaz Roe are a pair of holdovers who both struck out a small village and carry their own questions.

And then, there are the two Rule 5 guys. Recently selected Armando Rivero definitely has his foot in the door and has the pedigree. Still, the Braves want to be better than just a rebuilding team in 2017 so stashing him just to keep him is a no-go. The same applies for Daniel Winkler. It's impossible not to root for the guy after he made it all the way back from Tommy John only to have his elbow shatter during a game last April. He was looking nasty before the injury. I have not seen many updates, but the belief is he'll be ready to compete.

Luke Jackson was just acquired and has the stuff to be a high-leverage reliever in the majors. My gut says the Braves would like to work with Jackson in the minors for a little while, but he could force their hand with a big spring performance.

Shae Simmons returned for seven games last summer and will get his first chance to break camp with the Braves after being a midseason callup in 2014. At that point, he was immediately compared to Craig Kimbrel. He's not Kimbrel elite, but could be an x-factor for the 2017 bullpen. Other righties competing for a spot will be Jason Hursh, Akeel Morris, and Jordan Walden. The last name is very familiar, of course, and will try to make the roster after missing much of the last two seasons with injuries.

The left-handed side of the equation is just as crowded. Paco Rodriguez can be dominating when on the mound (2.98 FIP, 3.00 xFIP), but has thrown just 24.1 major league frames since the end of 2013. Atlanta has no idea what they have with Rodriguez at this point, but they also don't want to block him from claiming a spot. His main competition comes from Matt Marksberry and a pair of minor league signings - Eric O'Flaherty and Sam Freeman. Marksberry had a well-publicized health scare in November, but is progressing and seems like a good bet to be ready to compete this February. While his overall numbers in the majors aren't good, he has dominated lefties both in the majors and minors and if Krol continues to flash full-inning ability rather than be a LOOGY, there is room for Marksberry.

O'Flaherty was a surprise signing recently after looking terrible over 39 times last year for the Braves. To be fair, he was hurt. To be equally as fair, he hasn't been healthy since 2012. Freeman has a 4.32 FIP over 116.1 major league innings since 2012 and lefties have hurt him much more than righties.

I just mentioned 14 names battling for three spots. I could go on, too. Steve Janas, Caleb Dirks, Kyle Kinman, A.J. Minter, Bradley Roney, Adam Kolarek...

Suffice it to say, some of these guys are going to be spending time logging time with the minor league clubs this spring just to get some innings.

Catcher (assuming two)
Tyler Flowers

In the mix: To this point, the Braves have been shut out of the catcher market. Sure, they acquired Tuffy Gosewisch off waivers, but Jason Castro and Wilson Ramos have found new homes and neither are coming to Atlanta. While the market is still an option and the Braves may try to wait it out, there remains a significant chance that Gosewisch and Anthony Recker will battle it out to join Flowers on the active roster in April. At this point, there doesn't really seem to be another player in this battle.

D/ Swanson By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken,
NJ, USA [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

Infield (assuming seven)
Freddie Freeman
Jace Peterson
Dansby Swanson
Adonis Garcia
Sean Rodriguez

In the mix: Chase d'Arnaud had his best major league showing last year, but still on-based just .317. The bad news for him is that the Braves added Rodriguez, who essentially does everything d'Arnaud does, but better. Even with in mind, d'Arnaud has a good shot to remain if the season were to open tomorrow as one of the two backup options behind Rodriguez because he's a bit of a better option at shortstop.

Emilio Bonifacio just returned on a minor league pack, but should be avoided because Brian Snitker can't help but use him if he's around. Also in the mix is Colin Walsh, a switch-hitter who has played a lot of second base, third, and the corner outfield slots in the minors with a career .813 OPS. He only went 4-for-47 last year in his first taste of the majors, but still walked 15 times. Kyle Kubitza has 19 games of experience in The Show and a career .366 OBP in the minors, but has limited experience on the infield beyond third base.

The only other two infielders on the 40-man are Johan Camargo and Rio Ruiz. The former on-based .304 in Double-A last year and has not played above that level so let's just focus on Ruiz. The Braves would love a big spring where he pushes Garcia for playing time. Speaking of big springs, what about Ozzie Albies? The conventional wisdom is that Albies is ticketed for at least a few more months at Triple-A, but if he pushes Peterson this spring, it'll be hard not to bring him north. I don't find that likely, but it could happen.

My gut says that d'Arnaud and Ruiz are penciled in, but I also could see the Braves adding a veteran to take up one of the spots. Possibly Kelly Johnson? Well, at least until the Braves ship him off to the Mets to live with his other parents for the summer.

By Keith Allison on Flickr [CC BY-SA 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

Outfield (assuming four)
Matt Kemp
Ender Inciarte
Nick Markakis

In the mix: There are a few schools of thought on keeping Mallex Smith as a fourth outfielder. You don't want to stunt his growth and Smith has just 72 games at Triple-A over the last two years. To be fair, he has looked pretty good in those 72 games (.344 OBP). I personally like the option of keeping him on the roster. He'll get plenty of playing time spelling the aging Kemp and Markakis, you can develop him against select pitchers, he can study pitchers and their tendencies on the mound, and he gives you elite speed in a high leverage situation as a pinch runner.

The Braves' positional flexibility does mean that they don't have to carry a CF behind Inciarte. Peterson can move to center field and in a pinch, Rodriguez and d'Arnaud can as well. If they go for a non-Mallex option that's already in-house, Mel Rojas Jr. could be a surprise. After pedestrian numbers in Double-A, the son of the former Expos reliever excelled at Gwinnett over 64 games, hitting .270/.349/.491 with 10 HR and 9 steals. He had never looked that good before so don't buy in completely yet. Rojas is also a switch-hitter.

On the minor league free agent front, I mentioned Bonifacio and Walsh already. Another option is Lane Adams, a right-handed hitter, has played a lot of center field over his eight-year career. Last year, while playing for two stops in both Double-A and Triple-A, Adams hit .266/.342/.388 with 44 steals.

The veteran I mentioned above that I believe the Braves will sign to take up a bench spot might be an outfielder. Ideally, I believe the Braves would love a guy capable of playing CF even with options like Peterson around. One guy who would have to take a big pay cut is Coco Crisp, but he could make sense. Other CF-capable players include Austin Jackson and Desmond Jennings, who are both still young enough (30) to believe they could have a big year in their careers.

In summery...

The Braves positional battles look both wide open and underwhelming while the pitching battles could have too many players involved. Of course, two months give John Coppolella and the Braves' front office a lot of time to tweak and improve the roster.

What say you? Should the Braves spend big on a catcher? Should they go full-bore after a starter and take away the impression of a competition for a rotation spot? Does the bullpen need another established arm? How about the bench?