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Showing posts with label Livan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Livan. Show all posts

Sunday, January 1, 2017

Best #61 in Braves Franchise History

(Series Note: Baseball-Reference was used for a collection of players so this series is as complete as their database is. No coaches/managers were included and a number had to have at least four options to be considered with two exceptions. I started from the highest available number because as I approach #1, I'll have much tougher decisions. For the complete series, click here.)

Best #61 in Franchise History

I began this series with the best intentions.

And then #61 came up and I struggled to find anyone to attach the label of "best" to. Throughout the history of the franchise, nine players have worn the old sixty-one and none did so for more than one year. Finding a true "choice" from this group proved quite difficult. Dave Schuler, who broke ground in 1985 by wearing the number the first time, nearly took this decision by default as I struggled to arrive at a better option. At least he was first, right? Sure, nearly half of the 50 batters he faced over nine games in '85 reached base, but he had the guts to wear what seems like a cursed number first.

Damian Moss was mini-Glavine in 2002, but he wore #61 in 2001. Phil Stockman and James Parr shared the number in 2008, but no one was searching the Chop Shop trying to find an authentic Stockman or Parr jersey. The number has been used by a player in each of the last five years - most recently by Tyrell Jenkins. Before him, it was Williams Perez and before that, Chasen Shreve. Back when Braves fans had hope for him, Christian Bethancourt arrived in the majors in 2013 and wore the number. None of these players excelled while wearing #61.

I searched and I searched and then I remembered - this is my list. I don't have to let results decide things for me. Who was the most memorable player to wear #61? Well, to me, that would be the one player I left out.

Getty Images
My choice for the Top #61 is...Livan Hernandez

Unlike pretty much every choice on this list, Hernandez adored the #61. He never played a game in the majors under a different number and that's despite playing for nine different franchises. The Braves were #8 on that list during his 17-year career.

Of course, for Braves fans, Hernandez would be known more for his rookie season in 1997 than his work in 2012 despite the latter being the time he actually spent with the Braves. One of the first Cuban defectors to set the baseball world on fire, Hernandez arrived in the majors to stay in mid-June of '97. He would face the Braves once during his 17-start rookie run in which he was the victor in his first nine decisions. But it was Game 5 of the NLCS that Livan Hernandez truly became a part of Braves' history.

Hernandez pitched in relief in Game 2 of the NLDS during Florida's 7-6 win over the Giants. He also pitched on October 10 during Game 3 of the NLCS and got the victory as the Marlins moved past the Braves 5-2. Hernandez entered in relief and surrendered a sacrifice fly to Javy Lopez that tied the game. A pair of run-scoring doubles by Darren Daulton and Charles Johnson off John Smoltz in the bottom of the sixth put the Marlins ahead and they would sail to the victory.

Hernandez tossed 22 pitches during Game 3. That's why it was a bit shocking that two days later, he got the start in Game 5. The Atlanta Braves offense in 1997 was elite. They finished the season third in the NL in runs scored, fourth in OBP, and second in home runs and slugging. That date, Atlanta had Greg Maddux on the mound facing some 22-year-old kid. In a series that was tied 2-2, this was about as good as the Braves could hope for if they wanted to take the series lead before heading back to Turner Field - then in its first year. The scene was set, but the Braves had not prepared for one final thing - the man behind the catcher. Umpire Eric Gregg.

In the first inning, Kenny Lofton led off things with a triple. The next batter walked, but Chipper Jones and Fred McGriff struck out swinging. With the count 2-2, Ryan Klesko joined the previous duo, except he struck out looking. As did Lofton opening the third. Another player who was just browsing was Michael Tucker in the fourth and seventh innings. Jeff Blauser led off the 8th by staring at strike three. Along the way, the Marlins had scored twice off Maddux, who had struck out nine over 7 innings, including a pair of guys looking in Moises Alou and Gary Sheffield. The Braves had plated just one run off Hernandez - a solo shot by Tucker in the second. That was one of just three hits. They also added two walks. Entering the ninth, down 2-1, Hernandez had 13 strikeouts. Number #14 was Keith Lockhart to open the frame as he went down swinging. After Chipper lined out, it was all up for McGriff. He worked the count full. Hernandez threw a breaking ball that sailed a foot outside. McGriff, who later said the strikezone that day was "a little big," naturally thought he had extended the game and given the Braves a chance to tie things up. Gregg rang him up.

It was the 15th strikeout of the game for Hernandez. During his long career, Hernandez struck out at least ten batters four times. This game was the gold standard for Hernandez followed by an 11-strikeout game and two 10-K games. Of the 143 pitches Hernandez threw that day, 88 were strikes. 37 of those strikes were called - a difference of 13% over the regular season for the number of called strikes to total strikes. Maddux did not benefit from an unusually high number of called strikes - just Hernandez. A deeper look, one that was done by Fangraphs' Jeff Sullivan in 2013, shows that the difference may have been in the left-handed strikezone. The Braves that day had six left-handed hitters (including the switch-hitting Chipper Jones) in their lineup. Of the Braves who took a called strike three, only Blauser wasn't a left-handed hitter.

Much like the Bill Buckner game in 1986, despite the Eric Gregg game being our lasting impression of the series, the Braves still had a chance to win the series. Two days later, Kevin Brown outpitched Glavine and the Marlins won 7-4.

Hernandez pitched the game of his life that day - with some help from Gregg. Two years later, he would be traded to the Giants and his nomadic journey would begin. After the Giants were the Expos and he lasted through the move to Washington. Next was Arizona, then the Twins, then the Rockies, and a 23-game stop in Flushing for the Mets in '09. He finished that season back with the Natspos and would play the next two years with Washington. From 1997 to 2011, he pitched in 474 games - all starts minus two relief appearances in the playoffs. But at 37, the jig was up. It was time to extend his career as a reliever and the Braves came calling.

The 2012 Braves had one starter above the age of 25 in Tim Hudson. They were relying heavily on the arms of Mike Minor, Tommy Hanson, Randall Delgado, and Jair Jurrjens. Brandon Beachy and Kris Medlen would later fill in, but adding Hernandez was a natural move for depth purposes. The signing would also allow the Braves to use Cristhian Martinez in a higher-leverage role. However, Fredi Gonzalez was never known for using his bullpen properly. The Braves manager began the season by using Hernandez in mop-up situations - the exact reason he was brought aboard. By May, however, Hernandez began to get higher-leverage calls. In a 2-0 game against the Phils with the Braves trailing, Hernandez was brought in to keep it a two-run ballgame. Instead, he gave up two runs. In Colorado two days later, he actually secured his first save after coming in during the eighth of a 12-9 game. After the Braves added a run in the ninth, Hernandez stayed in to get the save.

Rather than be utilized as a long reliever, Atlanta was using him in middle relief and he never looked all that comfortable in the role. Things came to a head against Hernandez's old mates, the Nationals. With the game tied 2-2 in the sixth, Hernandez came in after Beachy hit the first batter of the inning. By the time the sixth was over, it was 6-2 Nats. Bryce Harper would add a solo bomb off Hernandez in the 8th as Hernandez took the one for the team. Hernandez would be buried for two weeks until he got the call in the fifth inning against the Blue Jays with Atlanta clinging to a 4-1 lead and the bases loaded. Three singles and a double later and it was 6-4. Hernandez would give up two homers the next inning to put the Braves down 9-4. He would be cut soon after.

Hernandez finished the season with the Brewers and gave up a combined eleven runs in his final two outings of his career. It would be an unimpressive end to a career that seemed headed to gigantic things during the 1997 NLDS. But, I guess, Eric Gregg couldn't be his umpire every game.

Tuesday, July 1, 2014

Once a Brave, Always a Brave - NL West (Part 1 of 2)

Because there are a lot of ex-Braves in the NL West, I'm going to go ahead and split this division into two posts. To be honest, I was half-tempted to cut the division into four different posts, but that seems like a bit too much.

Arizona Diamondbacks
P Randall Delgado - On the plus side for the D'Backs, only one of the five they acquired in the Justin Upton trade haven't played in the majors for them. On the not-so-plus side, many have pitched or played like Delgado. His ERA is near 5.00 in just over 40 games with the D'Backs with a FIP that is nearly matching. His tendency to give up long balls was only mildly annoying while playing in Atlanta, a park that doesn't tend to help hitters' power. In Arizona, it has nearly impossible to overcome. Mostly a reliever who is out of options now, Delgado will probably get another shot soon to start, but his time with the Diamondbacks looks like it might have a rapidly approaching expiration date.

P Zeke Spruill - At the time Spruill was coming up the system, he was often overshadowed by guys like Delgado. With good reason. Since coming to the Diamondbacks, he has been pretty average in the minors and fairly miserable in the majors in just 20.2 ING over eight games and three starts. Put it this way, 39% of the batters he's faced have reached base by either a hit, walk, or HBP. That's a lot of baserunners.

SS Nick Ahmed - A fast riser since the Braves took him in the 2nd round out of UConn, Ahmed is known for a slick glove and a developing bat. Well, after exploding for a .324/.390/.431 start in AAA, Ahmed got the call after an injury to one of the Diamondbacks infielder and went 1-for-3 in his debut. I doubt he suddenly became a great hitter and the Pacific Coast League often makes hitters look better than they really are, but Ahmed is a superb athlete who will play great defense and swipe 15-20 bases. He probably won't hit that much, not will his defense be as good as the Braves' current shortstop. Still, he might be the best young player out of this trade for Arizona...

3B Brandon Drury (A+) - ...That is, if Drury doesn't continue to put up extra nice numbers. Out of all the players traded in this deal, the one I felt the more apprehensive after the early shock of losing #14 was Drury. A 13th rounder out of a high school in Oregon, Drury had opened up some eyes with a .891 OPS with Danville in 2011 with 8 HR. While he would slump offensively the next year, there was still a lot to like. After the trade, Drury went back to A-ball and posted a .862 OPS with 15 HR. He's still in A-ball this season, though it's "advanced-A," and the results are just as solid with an .870 OPS. His glove isn't great, but neither is the current third baseman for the Braves. The solace of this is that Kyle Kubitza appears to be just as good of a prospect and a better athlete and defender, though Drury is a better power threat.

3B Martin Prado - What more can you say about Prado? When the announcement of the trade inititally hit facebook, his name wasn't mentioned. We all got excited about the prospect of one more year of Prado leading off and Justin Upton fitting somewhere in the lineup after him. That wasn't to be, however. After refusing Prado's demands for a long term deal, the Braves traded Prado as the center piece of the deal and Diamondbacks, who love grit if you haven't heard, inked him to a $40M deal over four years. And while Upton might frustrate Braves fans with his streakiness, Prado's falling numbers probably frustrate D'Backs fans more. After averaging .296/.346/.438 in the five seasons before the trade, Prado has hit just .277/.327/.399. While his defense is good, it's hardly great and the D'Backs were probably hoping of more of the 5.6 fWAR guy from 2012, not the 2.3 fWAR guy they got last season. Still impossible not to like, Prado is well received anytime the Arizona comes to town.

3B Andy Marte (AAA) Marte continues to rake at AAA, but that's nothing new. Marte has logged nearly 600 years at AAA during his career and has 94 homers to go with it. While hardly Mike Hessman territory, Marte is a solid player for teams at the second-highest rung. With the Diamondbacks likely selling at the deadline, maybe there will be room for Marte to get back to the bigs for the first time since the end of the 2010 season.

Colorado Rockies
P Matt Belisle - It was forever and a day ago that the Braves took Belisle in the 2nd round out of McCallum High School in Austin, Texas. The 2nd rounder was a starting prospect, but the Braves would give up on him for a mid-August waiver deal for Kent Mercker in 2002. He never had much success with the Reds and was miserable as a starter, but he found himself in his second season with the Rockies in 2010. Since then, the rubber-armed Belisle has pitched 337 times with a 3.62 ERA, 2.99 FIP, and 1.24 WHIP.

P Yohan Flande - In 2012, it looked like Flande was going to break camp with the Braves. After a good spring, the former Phillies farmhand who had just completed his first year at AAA was looking at a job as the long-man, but the lefty was demoted when the Braves signed Livan Hernandez. Flande would spent 2012 and most of 2013 with Gwinnett with an maddeningly average performance before leaving the organization after 2013. He landed in Colorado and despite continued average numbers, an injury got him to the majors and Flande made his major debut in June 25th. He gave up four runs to the Cards in a no-decision before losing last night against the Nationals. Thanks for that, Flande.

P Boone Logan - My favorite little tidbit about Logan is that he came over to the Braves in the Javier Vazquez deal and a year later, he was traded with Vazquez to the Yankees. Hopefully, they were roomies. Logan finally found success as a situational lefty with the Yankees over the last four years before getting $16.5M to come to Denver. The results have been miserable and he's missed nearly a month with left elbow inflammation. A LOOGY might need his left elbow. He's supposed to be returning very soon.

SS Paul Janish (AAA) - Remember how Janish hit .183 with the Braves with a pitcher-like .491 OPS? Yeah, he still can't hit, even in the thin air of Colorado Springs, where Janish has been playing for the Rockies' top minor league squad. A great defender whose claim to fame last season was 52 games to just 45 PA, Janish is a great guy to have around for your minor league team if only to give your pitcher a solid glove behind him.

That's it for this week. Next week, I'll take a look at the Dodgers, Padres, and Giants. The middle team of the three is especially interesting. Thanks for reading!

Wednesday, June 11, 2014

A Fun Coors Night

Some notes from Tuesday's slugfest in Coors Field...

It was the most runs scored since September 2nd when the Braves smacked the hapless Mets 13-5. It was the most runs during a road game since last July 6th, a 13-4 win over the Phillies. Last year, the Braves scored ten runs in Coors Field with both of the Uptons going back-to-back in a 10-2 win. The last time the Braves scored 13 at Coors Field came on May 5th, 2012. They were down 6-0 after Mike Minor got blasted (sound familiar?), but outscored the Rockies 13-3 after the second inning. Livan Hernandez recorded the final five outs for his only major league save.

The last time the Braves scored at least tens while surrendering ten runs was July 20th, 2012 against the Nationals. That was a game in which the Braves battled back from 9-0 after five to take the lead in the 9th, only to have Craig Kimbrel blow it by giving up a homer to Danny Espinosa. Paul Janish (of all people) singled home Dan Uggla (of all people) on a popfly that eluded the drawn-in infield and Chad Durbin (OF ALL PEOPLE) picked up the save with a shutdown eleventh to conserve the 11-10 win. This was also the last time the Braves scored at least ten runs and a reliever picked up a save. Kimbrel hadn't done it since May 30th, 2012 against the Cardinals, conserving a 10-7 win.

The last time the Braves scored at least 13 runs while surrendering at least ten runs was May 2nd, 2012. Played at Turner Field, the Braves fell behind 6-0 by the bottom of the fifth, battled back and took an 8-6 lead, fell behind 12-8, pulled ahead 13-12, and again Kimbrel blew it in the ninth. In the bottom of the 11th, Chipper Jones hit a two-run walkoff homer that absolutely deflated the Phillies.

The Braves not only scored 13 runs, a season high, but they banged out 16 hits. That was one more than the 15 they had in a 9-3 win against the Marlins on May 19th. The Braves are 10-0 when they have more than ten hits and 13-3 when they have at least ten. The Braves never had exactly 16 hits last season, but they had more than 16 four times, most recently when they finished a 12-5 thrashing of the Phillies with 17 hits last September 29th in the final game of the year. The game included Christian Bethancourt's only current major league at-bat, a strikeout. Elliot Johnson (SERIOUSLY, OF ALL PEOPLE) had 5 RBI and Gerald Laird went 4 for 4. The last road game with 16 or more hits was last July 6th when the Braves had 18 hits while humbling the Phillies.

The Braves have given up ten or more runs twice this season, the other time coming on May 14th against the Giants. Unlike that game, all ten runs this time were earned. The last time that happened was last July 20th, when the White Sox beat the Braves 10-6. That game was started by Paul Maholm, who got the call in all three of the starts the Braves gave up ten runs last season.

Three of five inherited runners scored last night, the most this season. The Braves allowed three inherited runners to score in a 3-1 loss last September 21st to the Cubs.

So...last night was a little weird, though not too strange. Fortunately, it ended in a victory. I had really no problem with Minor being left out as long as he was. In a true Coors Field game, your pitcher forgets about his ERA and just tries to give you innings. Minor didn't have it, but kept the Braves from using the entire bullpen. Hopefully, the offense takes a little of Coors Field with them after the series.

Saturday, March 29, 2014

The Elbow Ligament Curse

Over the last several weeks, injuries have continue to mount for the Atlanta Braves. First, it was Kris Medlen. Shortly after being labeled an ace by a couple of writers, Meds went down and would need a second Tommy John. It was only a few days later when Brandon Beachy followed suit. By the end of spring training, Cory Gearrin was next in Dr. James Andrews’ waiting room. What the hell is going on?

Only last year, other players went down with similar ailments. Jonny Venters missed the season, Eric O’Flaherty was hurt early in the year, and Cristhian Martinez’s shoulder was so wonky that no one even knows what happened to him.

What brings this rash of injuries to Braves pitchers?  Is it the pitching program? Perhaps, a return to Leo Mazzone’s program would fix all the problems Atlanta is suffering from. Or was it a problem inherent with the rehabilitation program for pitchers? Maybe the Braves are rushing players back before their arm strength can handle it.

Perhaps the fault is not with the Braves, but with baseball in general. A third of major league pitchers last year had experienced at least one Tommy John surgery and that number is rapidly rising. In the time it took me to type that last sentence, three pitchers suffered ligament damage to their elbow. That stat is in no way made up.

Could it be the problem can’t be solved by professional teams? Pitchers throw more and more than ever. A young girl named AmandaWhurlizer’s arm was worked so hard in little league, that she dated Michael Jackson, married John McEnroe, and was arrested for buying crack in Manhattan. MANHATTAN! This epidemic has gone too far when Manhattan residents are forced to buy crack, clearly to quell the pain that pitching brought upon them.

Before Tommy John created his own surgery, and humbly named it after himself, elbow ligament damage was a death sentence. People’s elbow would snap off and fall to the ground while people would perish from blood loss. True story.

In that way, these pitchers are lucky, but that does not explain how the Braves got to this point. You have to go back. Way back. All the way back to…


June 19th, 2012.

The Braves officially released Livan Hernandez. It was a perfectly reasonable move with a reliever who sported an ERA approaching 5.00 with five homers given up in 31 innings. Signed at the end of spring training to provide a veteran presence out of the pen capable of being a long man, Hernandez’s brief time with the Braves provided few memorable moments and many did not shed a tear for the Cuban-born right-hander. In fact, many were still confused how Hernandez was on the team considering his biggest moment came during the 1997 playoffs when a pitch that was about ten feet outside was called a strike to Fred McGriff.

In truth, the warning signs came before the 19th. Hernandez had been designated for assignment on June 15th. The next day, Beachy left a game with an elbow injury. On the 18th, as Hernandez sat in limbo, awaiting his fate, Beachy was diagnosed with a partially torn UCL and would need Tommy John. The surgery, not the man.

Since Hernandez was officially cast off, the injuries have continued to pile up and not all have been normal. Gearrin was demoted last year and completely shut down. Tim Hudson’s ankle was shattered – SHATTERED! – into a million pieces and to add insult to injury, he was kicked across the country to San Francisco. Martinez’s face is on milk cartons. Medlen’s avatar was actually changed to Tommy John on twitter because Medlen is in the midst of a personality crisis as his name is never mentioned without Tommy John.

The curse has spread and Peter Moylan, a former Brave, needs another surgery. Simply growing up a Braves fan was enough to force Indians pitcher Blake Wood to need Tommy John surgery. Chipper Jones recently had to put a deer down at his ranch because it too was suffering from elbow ligament damage.

But it all starts with Livan Hernandez. Cuban-born, Hernandez learned the dark magic of voodoo before coming to America. Leaving a team is always difficult, but being told to get out and don’t let the doorknob hit ya where the good Lord split ya was too much for Livan. He needed his revenge. He needed his pound of flesh.


He got it and more. Meanwhile, the Braves are starting Aaron Harang’s cadaver. Livan…you win.  We yield. Please lift this curse and we will celebrate your name by forgetting all about your cheap strikeout of the Crime Dog. Just stop this madness!

Friday, August 30, 2013

Alternate Universe: Braves Do Not Trade Yunel Escobar in 2010

(Hi.  I'm going to try this because I like the idea of how making one move ends up being quite significant.  I realize that it's impossible to take the numbers a player put up in one place and translate them to the next.  The league and park factors are ignored when you do that.  This isn't an exact study, but a simple exercise.  Hope you enjoy it and maybe I'll try this again soon.)

Figured I'd start a new series and this one was inspired by a lot of the comments directed to Yasiel Puig.  The 22 year-old, with a year of professional experience since his defection and even less time in the majors, has bothered both the Dodgers and opponents with his style of play.  Some believe he acts in a highly unprofessional manner with his playing style.  Mental lapses in judgement have occurred frequently on the field ranging from failing to hit the cut-off man to running into outs.  Let's be clear that most young studs who have a collection of skills that push them through the minors with explosive speed still have flaws in their games that haven't been hammered out.  After all, that's what the minors attempt to do and Puig didn't stay down there for very long (and with good reason).

The backlash toward him made me think of a former Brave in Yunel Escobar.  Back at the chopnation forums in their heyday, we used to refer to Escobar as Mr. Dynamic, a play on his description from one of the beat writers, probably David O'Brien.  Like Puig, Escobar was born in Cuba.  He defected through harsh conditions on a raft with over 30 others in 2004, reaching Florida and seeking asylum.  That allowed him to be included in the 2005 draft and the Braves took him in the 2nd round.

He rocketed through the minors and less than two years from the day he signed, Escobar made his debut on June 2nd of 2007.  While filling in for injuries, Escobar was used often by Bobby Cox at second, short, and third to keep his bat in the lineup.  He slashed his way to .326/.385/.451 and a sixth place finish in the Rookie of the Year voting.

It was a great turn around for Escobar, who clashed with his AA manager, former Brave Jeff Blauser, over his attitude.  He would consistently whistle at the opposing players (and his own teammates) while taking his customary spot at short.  While he wasn't quite as bad about it once he reached the majors, it was still present and was a product of his time in Cuba.  Tom Glavine was distracted by it so much one time that he called Chipper Jones over to ask who was whistling at him.  He showboated and didn't care who he aggravated, his own team included.  The Braves tried to drum that out of him by the time he reached the bigs.  Nevertheless, he had his moments.  But for the first two-and-a-half years of his career in the majors, Escobar got a bit of a free pass.  Sure, he got a talking to from time-to-time, both by his coaches and teammates.  There were the occasional benchings, some we know about.  But the Braves also enjoyed his energy and enthusiasm.  As Cox said, "You can see how much he loves to play."

2010: The Honeymoon Ends and Our Fictional Journey Begins ...In his first 371 games in the majors, Escobar slashed .301/.375/.426 while posting nearly 10 fWAR for the Braves.  However, with three-and-a-half months in the books during 2010, Escobar slumped badly with a .618 OPS.  His isolated power, which was extremely solid for a middle infielder, looked like it belonged to a pitcher.

The Braves were willing to deal with Escobar and all of the baggage when he produced.  Now that he wasn't, the Braves were done with him and traded him to the Blue Jays for a trio of players, including Escobar's replacement Alex Gonzalez.  A good defender who came with a miserable on-base percentage, Gonzalez was welcomed with open arms in Atlanta as he received a standing ovation when he arrived in the clubhouse.

However, what if Escobar hadn't struggled so much in 2010?  What if he simply was okay like he was after the trade.  He hit .275 with a .696 OPS with the Blue Jays the rest of the way.  Had he produced at that clip in the first half with the Braves, would they have traded him?  Probably not.

2011: The First Year of Arbitration and a Chance to Bounce Back...With the Blue Jays, Escobar hit .290/.369/.413 during 2011.  However, in Atlanta, Gonzalez struggled badly that year, OPSing .642 with more than 100 strikeouts than walks...which is absurd when you think about it.  The Braves would notably collapse in 2011, but one can argue that Gonzalez did everything he could to avoid that fall from grace, slashing .291/.330/.558 over his final 27 games.  Meanwhile, injuries limited Escobar and he missed the final 14 games.  On one hand, the Braves probably win more games early with Escobar and probably win the Wild Card by a couple of games.  On the other hand, losing Escobar would have made a slumping club even worse.

2012: Our Journey Ends as Escobar Slips Again...In 2012, the Braves went with Tyler Pastornicky, also acquired with Gonzalez in the Escobar deal.  In Toronto, Escobar was ready to start his second full season in Toronto and was paid $5M for it.  Here's where it gets difficult.  Would the Braves have been willing to deal Escobar in our fictional world coming off a pretty decent 2011 season?  Pastornicky is still in Toronto in this world and probably with a chance to replace Gonzalez.  Remember that the Braves wouldn't have anybody close to taking over at shortstop as Andrelton Simmons just finished the season in high-A ball.  However, Atlanta's payroll was pretty high in 2012 already.  It seems unlikely that they would have been able to fit $5M more.  You can cut $1M from that by not bringing back the awful Jack Wilson.  Chad Durbin and Livan Hernandez were signed late for a combined $1.65M.  The more likely situation is that with the presence of Escobar, the Braves don't trade for Michael Bourn during 2011.  They had a hole in center, but Escobar was a serviceable lead-off hitter.

Escobar struggles through 2012, OPSing .644, his worst single-season OPS for a full season.  The Blue Jays had signed Escobar to a contract extension after 2011.  The Braves probably don't do that because they rarely lock up arbitration-eligible guys long-term.  Simmons might even replace Escobar like he replaced Pastornicky during the season with Escobar's terrible 2012 campaign. Either way, with one more year of arbitration, Escobar gets non-tendered with or without the gay slur on his eye black that gets him suspended in September of 2012.  He doesn't get used in the mega Blue Jays/Marlins deal last offseason.  He also doesn't get traded to the Rays by the Marlins.  Now, the Rays seem like a good landing place on a make-good contract for Escobar, but maybe he signs with the Mets instead.  Or the Twins.

Either way, even if the Braves don't trade Escobar in 2010, his time in Atlanta would be short-lived. Simmons was progressing through the minors with a developing bat and a major-league ready defense.  Whether he arrives in June of 2012 or April this season, he was coming and Escobar - with all of the baggage - would have had to hit a lot better than he actually did in 2012 to stave off Simmons' arrival for another season.

Once he arrived in the majors, Escobar was an exciting enigma.  He was a solid defender with a good bat, but often found controversy wherever he went.  The Braves could deal with that when his production was high.  The occasional defensive mental error or baserunning mistake was part of the package for one of the better shortstops in the league.  When he stopped producing, though, the Braves were finished with him.  Not that Puig will follow a similar path in Los Angeles.  He is thoroughly more talented.  However, if your antics cause both your opponents and your own team grief, you can't suck.  Just ask Mr. Dynamic.

Friday, June 15, 2012

See ya, Livan!

Officially, Livan Hernandez has been designated for assignment, not flat-out released.  Regardless of the semantics, Livan has been cut and his days as a Brave are concluded.  Good thing, too, because I get to introduce a new column..."See ya!" 

Livan was signed just before the season on March 30th to be the long guy in the pen.  At the time, it seemed like a reasonable move.  With O'Ventbrel covering the late innings, Kris Medlen handling a decent amount of the other high leverage situations, and Lisp Martinez and the recently acquired Chad Durbin getting any other leftover innings, Livan could focus on low-leverage, multiple-inning stints.  Those outings would often come with big leads/deficits or as the last guy out of the pen in a long extra innings affair.

It kinda started off like that.  Livan retired five or more batters in each of his first seven appearances.  The results weren't wonderful, but he did post a 1.28 WHIP, kept the ball in the park, and avoided walks.  He was averaging over two innings an appearance but then, things got weird.  Livan became an one-inning hurler.  In his final eleven games as a Brave, he retired five or more batters just four times.  Why the change?  Well, sure, part of it was that the high-leverage guys were getting overworked largely because of Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty's ineffectiveness. But the other part is probably Fredi's fault.  He's an idiot after all.

Livan had lowered his ERA to 2.73 when everything went to shit on May 27th when, for some odd-ass reason, Fredi decided to start using Livan as a rally-killer with runners on.  Livan had started some 924 games before this season and now, he's good to be Fredi's Kevin Gryboski?  Well, like a Gryboski, things got awful.  In a 2-2 game, Livan was called upon with a runner on and no outs.  Fredi had decided to throw Brandon Beachy out for another inning and after he hit the first batter, he got the hook.  Sure, sure, hindsight's awesome and stuff, but one of my huge problems with Fredi is this idea of his to run out a starter with a huge pitch count until he gives up a runner.  Well, you increase the other team's chances of scoring because scoring from first base is 90 feet easier than scoring from the batter's box. 

Livan gave up three runs in that inning, plus the run charged to Beachy, and the Braves went on to lose 7-2 after Livan gave up a fourth run on a Bryce Fucking Harper homer. 

Now, here is where you throw him back out in a few days to try to get him some work.  I mean, you won't let that bad taste linger, right?  Oh...you didn't like that idea, did you?  Fredi buries Livan on the bench until...two weeks later on June 10th against the Blue Jays.  The Shitfest to end all shitfests...until that Yankee game.

Julio Teheran made a spot start and looked pretty decent until the fifth inning.  Up by four, Teheran loaded the bases with one out before giving up an RBI single.  Needing a rally to be killed, a blindfolded Fredi points at a name on the lineup card and calls in Livan from the pen.  Because he worked so well as the rally killer before.  Four consecutive hits and it's 6-4.  A couple of homers in the next inning and the rout was on.  Jays cruised to the 12-4 win.

Five days later, Livan was cut for the returning Kris Medlen.  I don't really have a problem with the move because it does make the team better.  Livan's FIP was at 4.71, though he really wasn't doing any different than you would expect him to do when you look at his last three years. 

Just the same...See ya, Livan!  You did exactly as well as you should have been expected to do and got cut for it.  Sucks to be you, guy.  For the first time in your career, I didn't loathe you this season.