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Showing posts with label Bonifacio. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bonifacio. Show all posts

Sunday, July 16, 2017

The Great Run Differential Debate

As the Braves polished off the Diamondbacks on Sunday afternoon, ESPN's Dan Szymborski took to twitter. Things quickly went nutty from there.
Ignoring the "So...yeah..." at the end, the tweet is accurate. With a run differential of -34, the Braves are reasonably close in run differential with the Mets (-40), White Sox (-36), Pirates (-25), and Angels (-25). These are all below-.500 squads with the White Sox over ten games under .500.

Szymborski would go on to argue the point as Braves fans confronted him. When fans would bring up losing Freddie Freeman for a significant amount of time and having Bartolo Colon struggle tremendously with the Braves and how these things affected run differential, Szymborski pointed out that you can't just take out the bad things. You also need to bring up the good things that have occurred that can not be counted on to be sustainable (he brings up Tyler Flowers having a .400 OBP and Freddie Freeman's adjusted OPS+ of 202).

Here's the thing - he's not wrong, but his approach is abysmal as he goes on to say that he "missed the BARVES crowd." Gee, thanks, Dan.

But back to his underlying point. Run differential can mean something. It's not the end-all of stats and can be sample-size driven. At the same time, it can tell us - as the season progresses - if a team is playing over or under what we should expect from them. The Expected Win-Loss Record, also called the Pythagorean expectation, is a nifty little tool for snapshot reasons. Most of the time, it proves fairly accurate and we see regression one way or the other.

There is a good deal of accuracy in run differential. It tells a story and it helps us predict the future.

Moving on, is there validity to the idea that, if you remove Colon's struggles and the beating the Astros gave the Braves a few weeks ago, the Braves are a better team? This is the other accurate point Szymborski attempts to make. The Braves are just as likely to improve without having to face the Astros or have Colon pitch every fifth day as they are to regress due to players beginning to fall back to their means (their catchers, Johan Camargo, and so on). Every team is dealing with similar issues - some more than others - and bringing them up as signs that the run differential is false may lose context.

Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
But here's the good news for Braves fans. The Braves are a team in flux. Of their opening day roster, four have been released while four others are on the Disabled List. A ninth player, Anthony Recker, is in the minors and a tenth player, Jace Peterson, will likely be demoted on Monday. In most of these cases, the Braves have improved when replacing members of their opening day roster. Johan Camargo is better than Adonis Garcia. Danny Santana is better than Emilio Bonifacio. Matt Adams is tremendously better than Chase d'Arnaud. The arms of Sean Newcomb, Luke Jackson, Jason Hursh, and Akeel Morris profile much better than the ones they replaced. The Braves are improving incrementally most of the time they choose a member of their minor league system over a player previously on the major league roster. That's something that run differential cannot speak to.

Consider this. The run differential at the end of May was -42. It's now down to -34. That's not a huge improvement, but it is an improvement. We can go an extra mile. Over 59 games, from May 12 to July 16, the Braves have a run differential of +1. Here's the math - 289 runs scored, 288 runs given up.

Is that cherry-picking? You betcha. May 12 was a win that put a halt to a six-game losing streak and also improved upon a season-worst nine games under .500. I didn't specifically look for a way to find an arbitrary point that would show the Braves with a positive run differential, but it ended up that way.

The Braves may not be a great team. Certainly, I've made that argument over this season. Defensively, they have significant issues and the pitching staff has been a season-long project. But they are improving and for fans of the Braves, that's exactly what you should be looking for with this rebuilding team. Are they ready for primetime (i.e. the playoffs)? I have my doubts, but are they the same team that only won 12 of their first 32 ballgames? Again, I have my doubts.

In the mean time, it's much too simple to chalk it all up to run differential and predict regression. This team is not the same one that opened up the season by losing 6-0 to the Mets. For Braves fans, that's a breath of fresh air.

Monday, July 10, 2017

First Half Timeline for the Braves

By EricEnfermero [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons
The Braves enter the All-Star Break at 42-45, 9.5 games out of the Eastern Division and nine games behind the Rockies for the second Wild Card spot. Two other teams, the Cardinals and Cubs, are a half-game in front of them. Their expected win-loss record is actually worse at 39-48, a product of a bad pitching staff.

How did we get here? Here's a timeline of the first half of the season.

April 3: Opening day and the Braves fall 6-0 to the Mets. Their opening day roster included Emilio Bonifacio and Eric O'Flaherty, two guys the Braves brought back after they both struggled in 2016 for Atlanta. Not on the roster is Sean Rodriguez, who some believe will miss the season after he was involved in a car accident with a drunk driver.

April 17: After losing six of their first seven ballgames, the Braves won five consecutive games to pull to .500. This streak was capped off by a four-game sweep to open SunTrust Park, including a walk-off 5-4 win against the Padres after Dansby Swanson singled with the bases loaded in the bottom of the ninth to finish the series. The Braves were 6-6 on the year. They would lose their next six straight and have yet to get back to .500.

April 19: In a sign of things to come, Julio Teheran is hammered for seven runs over four innings against the Nationals in his second start at SunTrust. In nine home starts during the first half of the season, Teheran allowed four or more runs six times. He only allowed that many runs in nine road starts once. The Braves have won only two of Teheran's home starts and have lost just two of his road starts.

April 29: The Braves score double digit runs in back-to-back games for the only time this season as they beat the Brewers 10-8 and 11-3. The first victory came after Bartolo Colon and Jason Motte combined to put the Braves in an 8-4 hole entering the seventh. Freddie Freeman finished the comeback with a two-run homer in the top of the ninth.

May 10: Atlanta concludes a low point in the season as they follow up the two wins against the Brewers mentioned above by losing eight-of-nine games to drop to a season-worst nine games under .500. This included a 16-5 bloodbath at the hands of the Mets on May 3 in which Colon gave up five runs in four innings. Of his 13 starts with the Braves, Colon surrendered five or more runs eight times - including his final four starts.

May 17: The Braves have righted the ship, winning five-of-six, but the fifth win was a costly one as Toronto Blue Jays pitcher Aaron Loup nails Freddie Freeman on the wrist during his fifth-inning at-bat. Freeman is immediately removed and further tests reveal a fracture. He's originally expected to miss at least two months.

May 20: John Coppolella decisively acts to fill the hole created by Freeman's injury as he acquires Matt Adams from the Cardinals. Adams, who had lost essentially all of his playing time after the Cardinals moved Matt Carpenter to first, makes an immediate impact with the Braves. In his second game, he blasts a two-run homer in a 5-2 win over the Pirates. The next night, after Jim Johnson blows a save, Adams finishes a two-run rally with an RBI walk-off single. He had also homered in the game.

June 7: Three days after scoring 13 runs, the Braves set a season-high with 14 runsagainst the Phillies. Nick Markakis picks up five RBI with three doubles while Matt Adams and Dansby Swanson each homer. Mike Foltynewicz throws seven shutout frames - though the Braves offense didn't need such excellent pitching.

June 10: Atlanta plays their only double-header of the first half and drops both games to the Mets. They scored just two runs and waste Sean Newcomb's debut. The lefty was masterful over 6.1 innings. Only an error, charged to Newcomb, led to a run. He walked two and struck out seven, but takes the loss. With a Game Score of 68, it is tied for the eighth-best major league debut in Braves history.

June 12: The Braves make Kyle Wright the fifth overall draft choice of the 2017 Draft. Wright, the ace of the Vanderbilt staff, was lauded for his pitchability, stuff, and potential for a quartet of plus pitches. They would later add Drew Waters, a player with potential five-tool skills. The Braves showed with this draft that they were willing to play the hand that was dealt to them. A year after championing the quantity of prospects from a deep draft, they aimed at hitting on a few quality picks in this year's shallow draft.

June 17: Jaime Garcia gives up six runs, but the Braves win 8-7. It was the beginning of a bad streak of games for Garcia to finish the half. Including this game against the Marlins, Garcia surrendered five or more runs in four consecutive starts with an ERA of 9.41 during those starts. The Braves offense bails him out enough to win two of those games, though. Before the streak, Garcia looked like this year's Shelby Miller with a record of 2-5 and an ERA of 3.16.

June 21: Braves walk-off for the third time in six days and for the sixth time during the first half. After Arodys Vizcaino and Jim Johnson blow a two-run lead - again robbing Newcomb of a win - Matt Kemp hits the third homerun of the game for the Braves, a two-run bomb to lead to a 5-3 win. The previous weekend, Brandon Phillips had smoked hits through the Marlins infield to win in walk-off fashion in consecutive days. The Braves would follow up the Giants walk-off win by winning their next three to get to 36-38.

June 30: Mike Foltynewicz comes oh, so close to history. He tosses eight no-hit innings before a homerun to open the ninth breaks the hearts of many Braves fans who had stayed up late to watch and listen to the game in Oakland. What made the result even worse was that it looked like Foltynewicz had gotten a strikeout earlier in the at-bat, but the umpire disagreed. Foltynewicz throws 119 pitches during the game and in addition to the one hit allowed, he walked four and struck out eight.

July 4: Originally expected to miss at least two months, Freddie Freeman returns after just 44 games  to face the Astros on Independence Day. To help the team, Freeman volunteers to move to third base to keep Matt Adams in the lineup. Atlanta goes 24-20 without their best player. Unfortunately, the Braves will get demolished 16-4. The next night is nearly just as demoralizing as the Braves get beat by possibly the best team in baseball, 10-4. Also on the fourth, the Braves officially released Bartolo Colon. He lasted 13 games with the team.

July 7: With Braves fans excited about their team's prospects for hunting down the Nationals, Jim Johnson falls apart in a 5-4 walkoff loss to the NL East leaders. Atlanta had a chance to once again get to one-game under .500, but Johnson, who has struggled this year when used on back-to-back days, blows a three run lead. Ian Krol finishes the sad effort by giving up a walk-off hit in the tenth.

July 9: A day after smashing the Nationals 13-0, the Braves finish with a disappointing split of their final series against of the first half after losing 10-5.

Atlanta will be back in action on Friday as they welcome the Diamondbacks to Atlanta for the beginning of a six-game homestand that will also include the Cubs.

Tuesday, June 13, 2017

Transaction Tuesday: Newcomb, Medlen, Pike, Minter

Lots of moves to report this week in this recap. A top prospect is promoted to the bigs, a former prospect works his way up the ladder, and a non-prospect continues his wayward journey to never spend too much time in one city. Hope you enjoy!

A note on this report - moves referenced today took place between June 6 and June 12. I no longer refer to Taxi Squad, but extended spring training which is what sending a player to Danville technically refers to this early in the year. Many of them don't actually head to extended spring, though. Prospect Numbers are derived from my preseason Top 50.

Atlanta
Hursh (3rd across) | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Recalled from Mississippi, Optioned to Gwinnett, and Recalled Again: Jason Hursh...Don't look now, but Hursh has added some velocity to his heater and hit 96.18 mph last week. If he can throw that heavy fastball with that kind of velocity and location, the Braves may have themselves a prospect after all. He was dealing for both Mississippi and Gwinnett this year. At 25, it's time to see if he can stick in the majors for good now.

Recalled: Lane Adams...Most players are kind of boring to follow on twitter. They retweet generic inspirational posts, reach out to their hometown buddies, or say "let's go get 'em" each time there is a game. Lane Adams, though, is a joy to follow. Recent tweets include him taking someone to task for being a "true fan," his endorsement of the Minute Maid soft-frozen lemonade (which he says is the "bomb dot com"), and advising women to stop bedazzling their capris. His twitter feed was major league quality long before he was brought back to the majors.

Recalled and Optioned to Gwinnett: Matt Wisler...Hitters in general show improvement the more times in a game they see a pitcher so I don't want you to fall in love with these splits, but opposing OPS from the first appearance against Wisler in a game to the fourth appearance ranges from .741 to .795 to .837 to .925. He's got a good slider and likely would add a few ticks to his heater (currently in the 93 mph range) if he was in a relief role. Is it time to consider that?

Called Up: Sean Newcomb (#2)...I wrote a blurb about Newcomb yesterday so I don't want to repeat myself much. What I didn't mention yesterday is the news that dropped about Newcomb. He'll get at least a second start. Are you hyped yet?

DL'd: Bartolo Colon (left oblique/general awfulness)...Colon's greatest contribution to the Braves this year has been hitting the DL so Newcomb could be promoted. That's just a sad fact. He has a 5.09 FIP, his highest walk rate since Barrack Obama's first year, and an xFIP of 4.83 - which would be a new high (the stat goes back to 2002). But hey, we got plenty of fat jokes along the way.

DL'd: Adonis Garcia (left finger/general awfulness)...The nearly everyday third baseman (for reasons) is back on the DL for a second time this season. He has a .282 OBP this year which is just 20 points below his career average so...yay for a regression to the norm at some point...

DL'd: Eric O'Flaherty (left shoulder/general awfulness)...My daughter was given a gobstopper and immediately tried to bite it down and crunch it. I told her that she needs to suck it first because it's too hard to bite. She said she understood and wouldn't ya know it? She kept trying to bite it. I took it away from her because she wouldn't eat the candy properly. At some point, John Coppolella has to take away O'Flaherty from Brian Snitker because Snit won't use O'Flaherty properly. Over the last two seasons, lefties have a .292 wOBA against O'Flaherty with a 20% strikeout rate. Righties? They brutalize O'Flaherty to the tune of a .461 wOBA (not a typo). Yet, he's faced just one more lefty than he has a righty during that time. This season, he's faced five more righties than he has lefties! Coppy, take the gobstopper away from Snit. He's just going to use it wrong.

Released: Emilio Bonifacio...Could this be the end of the Braves/Boni relationship? One can hope. You have to give it up for Boni's consistency, though. In 2015, in 82 PA, he had a -0.7 fWAR. Last year, in 43 PA, he had -0.6 fWAR. This season, in 44 PA, he had a -0.6 fWAR. Only nine major league players were able to amass more than -1.5 fWAR over the last three years and to his credit, nobody did it more efficiently than Bonifacio (just 169 PA). It took Casey McGehee nearly 200 more PA to be that inept.

Gwinnett
Gaylor | Barry College
Promoted from Mississippi: Stephen Gaylor...This is actually Gaylor's second assignment in Gwinnett - he played there one game last year. Gaylor has some fans in the front office who keep promoting him despite some fairly un-noteworthy numbers. He was hitting just .118 in 13 games before joining Gwinnett after all and has a career .646 OPS, but the undrafted outfielder out of Berry College continues to climb the ladder.

Promoted from Mississippi: Kris Medlen...The comeback continued into its third different assignment as Medlen graduates from Florida and Mississippi on his way back to the majors. His first start in Gwinnett since 2012 wasn't great, though he did strike out six, a season high. The pinpoint control just isn't there yet and he'll need a bit more time, but the 31-year-old has looked strong in his five outings.

Activated: Aaron Blair...Following a short stint on the DL, Blair returned last week to make two starts. One was pretty ugly, but his Sunday start against Charlotte was superb with 6.1 innings, four hits, no runs, two walks, and five K's. Blair's control has been suspect all season and a pitcher with his limitations needs to be able to hit his spots much better.

Activated: Braeden Schlehuber...A fourth rounder in Frank Wren's first draft class (2008), Schlehuber is an organizational guy who I would be shocked to see not get a coaching assignment in the organization once he retires. He's been on the DL nearly as many times (three) this year as games played (four). On the plus side, on May 31, he hit his first home run since 2014.

Temporary Inactive: Caleb Dirks (#34)...I'm not real sure what this is about for Dirks. Likely, this is related to paternity leave, but in general, a temporary inactive placement is just a way to say the player in on paid leave. A placement like this requires at least three days away from the team. Dirks was placed on the list last Friday. He's struck out 40 over 34.1 innings compared to just ten unintentional walks. He has matched his career-high by surrendering three home runs and has an FIP of 3.29.

Released: Mel Rojas Jr....Rojas was a big minor league pickup last year and logged significant time this spring with the Dominican Republic squad this spring for the World Baseball Classic. That potentially was to his detriment as he missed out on an opportunity to compete for a spot on the Braves bench with Bonifacio. After a slow start with Gwinnett, Rojas was ready to try his luck elsewhere and asked for his release to sign with a team in Korea. The Braves obliged and Rojas will have a shot to make some good money in Asia.

Mississippi
Promoted from Florida: Tyler Pike...Otherwise known as the other guy the Braves got in the Alex Jackson trade, Pike left a minor league system that does some questionable things to their arms to a system that gives more reasonable assignments and rewards performance. Lucky for all of us. Pike's improvement with his control that really began last year continued for Florida and he upped his groundball rate in the process. He carried a 2.94 FIP over nearly 70 innings with the Fire Frogs before the promotion. Pike was a former #126th overall pick so he's got some talent. If the Braves are able to develop that talent into an exciting prospect, they will show once more that sometimes, it's not the prospects who disappoint, but the scouting-and-development team that doesn't bring out the best of the prospect.

Parsons | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Activated with Gwinnett from extended spring, demoted from Gwinnett: Wes Parsons...For us that have watched Parsons struggle to stay on the mound, his promotion to Gwinnett was a nice moment. However, he got bashed around in his 8.1 innings and will return back to Mississippi, where he was impressive over 30.1 innings.

Activated: Bradley Roney (#38)...Roney has spent much of the season sidelined. He's only appeared in eleven games. His walk rate continues to be an issue (14% at Mississippi), which negates his very impressive strikeout numbers. Roney pitched 27 games in Gwinnett last season and has closer stuff. Will he ever hit the strike zone enough, though?

DL'd: Matt Withrow (#29)...After a tremendous beginning to the season, Withrow's numbers had really come back to Earth over his last four starts (18 ER in 17.1 ING with 10 BB and 15 K's). He now heads to the DL for the first time for the 2015 sixth rounder. The Texas Tech alum has a nice fastball with good sink, but doesn't get many grounders out of it. Withrow has a classic fastball/slider combination that might serve him well as a reliever or the Braves might keep him as a starter as he tries to develop his offspeed stuff because that makes him a better trade asset.

Florida
Activated from DL: A.J. Minter (#19)...It's been a tough season for Minter, who carried a great deal of hype into spring training. There was thought he might even jump to the majors and why not? He jumped from Rome to Mississippi in 13 games with a stop in Carolina last year. But he was slowed by injury this spring and when he finally got into a game on April 11th, he strained his groin. But on Sunday, he made his return and struck out all three batters he faced. Kids, time to get hyped again.

Promoted to Mississippi and demoted back: Andres Santiago...So, this is Santiago's season. He spent a week to open the year with Florida, was "sent" to Danville for three days, brought back to Florida for a dozen, "back" to Danville for four, and was added to Rome for nearly two weeks before returning to Florida on May 10. I'm not done. Ten days later, he "returned" to Danville for a week before coming back to Florida for about five days. He then went to Gwinnett for two days, back to Florida for four days, up to Mississippi for three days, and two days ago, he was demoted back to Florida. In two months, he's moved around more than I have in nearly 35 years on this planet. I need to do more with my life.

Rome
Promoted from extended spring: Alan Rangel...Plucked out of Mexico back in 2014 during Frank Wren's last international class, Rangel has spent his first two professional seasons in the Gulf Coast League. He struggled badly through his first run, but turned the corner a bit last year with 46.2 solid innings. Rangel works off his control, which is superb and gets some good downward movement on his pitches. He fit the mold that the Wren-era scouting team was looking for in that way. He was expected to be on the Danville roster when the season opened, but received a shot with Rome to show what he has. He scattered seven hits over 4.2 innings, but only one, a homer, led to a run. He also walked a batter and struck out four. Just 19, he might get an extended stay with the Danville pitching staff likely to be stacked from the draft.

Activated: Oriel Caicedo...An extreme control artist, Caicedo has walked just four in 43.1 innings this year for Rome. Overall, he has a mere 73 walks in 412.2 career innings. He'll never strikeout a lot and doesn't get a ridiculous amount of grounders, which is why he won't show up on your prospect lists, but he's a solid dependable arm who can start when needed.

DL'd: Ryan Lawlor...Selected in 2015 with the #240th overall pick, Lawlor skipped Rome last year on his way to Carolina. He struggled there with an ERA and FIP near 5.00 before being demoted to Rome for this season. Though his ERA has been pedestrian (4.37), his peripherals have been wonderful (31% K-rate, 8% walk rate, no homeruns, 48% groundball rate, 2.03 FIP). I have not seen any report as to why he hit the DL, but he last pitched on May 31 and went 5.2 innings that day while matching his season and career-high in strikeouts with nine.

Danville
Demoted from Rome: Jaret Hellinger...A 2015 20th rounder out of McDonough, GA, Hellinger has some good sinking stuff, but the southpaw struggled to put it together with Danville last year (4.42 FIP). He opened this season in extended spring training before getting a call-up in mid-May. His first outing was solid, but he struggled from there with a four-run four-inning start mixed in during his six-appearance run with Rome. Short of an injury, Hellinger might be stuck in Danville until their season begins.

DSL
Severino | Jeff Morris - Follow on Twitter
Assigned: Yenci Pena...Another one of the seven-figure prospects the Braves added last July, Pena us expected to add power as he ages (he's still just 16). A capable defender at shortstop, there is concern whether he'll stay there long-term, but for now, the Braves will roll with him at the position. He's gotten off to a 4-for-18 start with a pair of doubles, five strikeouts, and a steal.

Assigned: Yunior Severino (#44)...Signed for $1.9 million last July, Severino is one of the crown jewels of a massive class that also included Kevin Maitan, Abrahan Guiterrez, and the aforementioned Pena. He was ranked as the eighth-best prospect of last year's class and is a switch-hitting power hitter who may - and I stress may - be able to stay on the middle of the infield. Atlanta has decided for now to shift him over to second base, though opinions were split about whether he'd be able to stay at shortstop should the Braves had tried that. Severino is off to a 2-for-15 start with a double, three walks, and five strikeouts.

Friday, May 26, 2017

Prepping for the Trade Deadline: Part 1

(Written by Ryan Cothran, a contributor at Walk-Off Walk for the last few weeks. Previous columns by Cothran include one on BABIP, the bullpen, and reviewing the Braves' buy-low philosophy on Tommy John survivors. Remember to follow Ryan on Twitter.)

By Arturo Pardavila III [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Yes, the trade deadline is a little way off, but let it be known that Braves General Manager John Coppolella is always anxious to make a deal and a single date doesn’t hold weight on this trading stallion. Therefore, we need to be prepared, and this article will help us get there.

If 2017 is a mirror of the past 2 years of Braves baseball, it’s going to be an active trade deadline for Coppy and the crew. Whether it be buying, selling, or a little bit of both, you can bet your sweet pippy the Braves will be dealing.

Here’s a recap of trades orchestrated in the months of May-August of 2015. Note that at this time, Coppy was not yet named the GM, but most agree that these were Coppy's deals and John Hart was merely there to provide guidance and a helping hand:


And here’s a recap of trades orchestrated in the months of May-August of 2016:


What will 2017’s trade deadline look like for our beloved Braves?

2015 was all about selling off the veterans, dead money, or debt consolidation for wild card prospects. The team was dead in the water and had no chance to compete. We knew it. Braves knew it.

2016 was much the same, rather the prospects were better, the deals were riskier (acquiring Matt Kemp), but most worked out in the Braves favor.

2017...if only we had a crystal ball. What will the Braves record be like approaching the deadline? If the last few weeks are any indication, I’d say that this team will be hovering around .500 come late June and that is lightyears better than what we’ve had these last 2 abysmal years. In dissecting Coppy’s track record, we can see who’s most likely to be on another team come July: 1-year veterans.  Here’s a list of players that have 1 year of control on their contract:

Brandon Phillips
Bartolo Colon
Jaime Garcia
Jason Motte
Kurt Suzuki
Emilio Bonifacio
Eric O’Flaherty
*I’m not including R.A. Dickey or Tyler Flowers on this list even though they are both on 1-year deals, but have reasonable options.


Of the players above, Phillips, Garcia, Motte, and Suzuki are the 4 that have established some value this year.  Colon could be bought based on reputation alone, but I don’t think there’s any team that would even take O’Flaherty or Bonifacio for free at this point.

However, if the Braves are looking competitive AND their best hitter in Freddie Freeman is set to return, one has to weigh the +/- of trading any of the vets that have value. The biggest question to answer would be “Are there suitable replacements?”  That, my friends, is a hard question to answer.

Replacing Traded Pieces

Replacement for Brandon Phillips? Ozzie Albies has taken to adjusting at AAA Gwinnett. In his last 20 games, he has a .296/.367/.432/.799 slash-line with 3 doubles, 1 triple, 2 HR, 6 SB and 0 CS. He’s younger and at this stage of Brandon’s career, will provide better defense. But Brandon’s on pace for a 2.5 fWAR year, is putting up solid numbers across the board, and has been a really nice addition to a Braves lineup that’s lacked good production from 2nd base. If Braves are competing, I think it’s hard to pull the trigger.

Weigel | Jeff Morris. Follow him on Twitter @AtlBravesJeff
Replacement for Bartolo Colon? Lucas Sims and Sean Newcomb have both taken their lumps of late, but Bartolo has taken his the entire year up until last start. There’s no doubt that having Bartolo on the team has a positive effect on our players, especially Latin Americans, but from a player’s perspective, his production seems replaceable on the surface given either of the two above could get the call - along with guys like Kris Medlen, Luke Jackson, or even Patrick Weigel.

Replacement for Jaime Garcia? It sounds weird to “sell-high” on a starting pitcher that’s sporting a 4.07 ERA, but that’s what the Braves could do with Jaime Garcia.  Left-handed pitchers are coveted in the MLB and Jaime’s peripherals tell a different story than his actual production. I’m afraid that if the Braves don’t move him soon, his numbers could balloon or his injuries pop up again. Insert same guys for Jaime’s replacement with more emphasis on Newcomb for handedness.

Replacement for Jason Motte? There are plenty of candidates for a Motte replacement, but all seem to come with the dreaded taint of being walk-heavy.  Motte’s great start has been a bit smoky and mirrory as his LOB is a crazy 94.8%, but make no mistake he has been effective. Luke Jackson, Mauricio Cabrera, and Akeel Morris seem like logical fits should any of the three find their control.

Replacement for Kurt Suzuki? At this point, I think the Braves would rather extend Suzuki for another year rather than trade him. There aren’t real replacements at Gwinnett (David Freitas, maybe?) and Kade Scivicque is at Mississippi, but that’d be rushing his development, especially as a hitter. Trading Suzuki doesn’t seem wise unless the Braves can acquire their future catcher at the deadline.

Replacement for Emilio Bonifacio, Eric O’Flaherty? While this likely isn’t trade deadline stuff as I don’t think these three will be around by then, replacing these guys seem rather easy:
Lane Adams for Emilio
Rex Brothers for O’Flaherty

What to expect in return for these trades?

If the Braves are trading any of their 1-year veterans, the less the acquiring team has to pay, the better the return. With that in mind, a team in desperate need of 2B production could send a B/B+ prospect to the Braves. Prospects the Braves have acquired in the past 2 years that fit that description are John Gant, Robert Whalen, Touki Toussaint, Akeel Morris, and Travis Demeritte

For the rest, it depends on what Coppy has up his sleeve. There’s a lot he could do with excess cash at the trade deadline and filling holes with high-end cost-heavy talent wouldn’t be the worst idea in the world.

Thanks for reading! Look for part 2 of this piece which will address Organizational Surplus.

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Braves Pull Off Two Deals

By Keith Allison [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Flickr
What a day to spend most of it out with the family at the annual Monacan Powwow here in central Virginia. We have two trades to digest - one far more interesting than other so let's start there as the Braves agree to a one-for-one exchange with the Cardinals in which first baseman Matt Adams heads to Atlanta for minor leaguer Juan Yepez. Unknown cash considerations will also be part of the deal to help pay for the remainder of Adams' $2.8M salary. The Braves also designated Anthony Recker for assignment.

Let's talk about Yepez first. The 19-year-old was hitting .275/.309/.387 this year and was mostly playing third base this season after being stuck at first base for the majority of his first two seasons. Overall, Yepez has hit .281/.335/.407 in parts of three years, including notably worse numbers over 59 games with Rome.

I had Yepez ranked #27th in the system before spring training and he does have some good projection left in his bat. He was Frank Wren's last big signing on the international market and if the power ever became legit, his hit tool would help Yepez climb up some prospect lists. But you can say that about any number of prospects. The bigger problem for Yepez is one, I, and I don't think I am alone, was not convinced he had the chops to stay at third base. Once you take him off third base and put him at first, his prospect status is hurt. It'll be interesting to see if Yepez continues at the hot corner after the trade, but even though I liked Yepez, his loss just doesn't do much for me. Of course, if Yepez starts to perform up to his best-case projections, this deal won't look so hot in five years.

Moving on to Adams, the Braves have acquired a stopgap first baseman who should be playing with a chip on his shoulder. Adams posted a combined 3.6 fWAR in his two seasons as an unquestioned major leaguer, but injuries and poor play have resulted in a 0.7 fWAR since the beginning of 2015. Things were so bad this season that Adams not only lost a timeshare ownership of first base - he became a backup as the Cardinals moved Matt Carpenter to first base. Early on, the Cardinals tried him out in left field, but he's ventured into the outfield just once since April 10 and it happened to be the game in which he hit his only homer of the year against the Braves. Other than that, he's been a pinch hitter who occasionally plays a little first base.

Overall, Adams has played 31 games this season and picked up 53 PA. With those trips to the plate, he's hit .292/.340/.396. He carries a negative fWAR mainly because his time in left field has looked extra-strength terrible so far.

Let's dive deeper into Adams. A left-handed hitter, Adams has a .332 career wOBA and 110 wRC+. Basically, that's Jason Kipnis territory without the added bonus of being a very good second baseman. Adams displays plus-pop (.183 ISO) and while strikeouts can be expected (23.2%), it's worth noting that since 2011, Adams ranks 94th of 395 players in strikeout percentage. Adams is not going to walk that frequently and will depend on a solid BABIP to keep his average and OBP in decent standing.

Don't expect many groundballs off Adams bat. He ranks 50th since 2011 in GB/FB ratio. Similar to former Braves first baseman Adam LaRoche, Adams gets under the ball a good deal in order to drive it. Unlike many guys who have such a pronounced uppercut to their swing, Adams isn't a hyper-pull hitter (actually, he's just about average).

The comparison to LaRoche also continues into their hit profile. These numbers are since 2011.

Name GB/FB LD% GB% FB% IFFB% HR/FB Soft% Med% Hard%
LaRoche 0.90 21% 37.4% 41.5% 6.8% 13.9% 12.1% 52.5% 35.3%
Adams 0.91 21.2% 37.5% 41.4% 6.5% 12.5% 14.7% 50.0% 35.3%

Uncanny.

This is the part of the article where I talk about splits data. The Cardinals, who again rarely started Adams this season, have been able to keep the first baseman from facing lefties as a result. Just three times this season has Adams faced a lefty - he's 0-for-3, by the way. Let's roll those three plate appearances into the last three seasons of his data and we see a sad result. Since the beginning of 2014, Adams has been owned by lefties. He's managed just a .256 wOBA against them and a putrid 59 wRC+. Hence why the Cardinals realized pretty early that Adams was not meant to be a full-time starter.

Defensively, Adams ranges from adequate to above-average at first base over his career with a 15 career rPM and 12 total DRS to go with a 2.0 UZR/150. His range isn't great and he's a bit prone to lapses in judgment. Plus, he's not one of those guys who starts a bunch of double plays (like Freddie Freeman). Basically, he's not bad, but he's never going to look like a Gold Glover.

The acquisition of Adams cost the Braves a potentially good prospect. Could it also bring in a good prospect should Atlanta choose to trade him before the July trading deadline? It's doubtful. Another team will have to be as desperate as the Braves are right now because Adams is a flawed player. To use him properly, you need a right-handed option at first base which, by the way, Atlanta also lacks. But if Adams bashes a dozen or more homers during his run with the Braves, a team could be willing to give him a longer look.

Moving forward, Adams looks like the everyday starter at first base. There are a few issues related to this. #1, who goes down? It would appear that answer is Rio Ruiz just because he was only brought up because of Freeman's injury. That might be a mistake - nearly as big of a mistake as Max Scherzer's pitch that Ruiz jumped on for his first career homer yesterday. Obviously, it's premature to base much on one game, but Ruiz was scorching at Gwinnett and many of us felt he had earned an opportunity in the majors. Like Adams, he needs to be protected against lefthanders, but as the Braves search for offense to replace Freeman, having both Adams and Ruiz in the lineup against righties is a good move.

Obviously, this leads me to think Emilio Bonifacio or Danny Santana would be better players to kick off the team. Neither have options, but neither are long-term assets that the Braves need much of a look at. Atlanta could also demote a pitcher rather than carry eight for the bullpen.

That said, I do expect it to be Ruiz. Atlanta has had many opportunities to get rid of Bonifacio. Instead, he has played in 30-of-40 games. Brian Snitker loves what Bonifacio brings to the table.

For reasons.

Turning back to Adams, his time with the Braves could be short. Atlanta could decide to repackage him in a deal in July - theoretically, around the point Freeman is ready to return. The chances of that and how well the Braves might do in a trade would be dependent on Adams' performance. Either way, it's difficult to see Adams playing for the Braves beyond 2017. He's arbitration-eligible for one more year and the Braves could bring him back, but he would be due a raise beyond his $2.8M and the Braves simply aren't going to pay a backup first baseman that kind of cash - even if you can occasionally swing him into left field to answer the question of who was the better defensive left fielder, Evan Gattis or Adams?

Before I forget, in an unrelated move, the Braves acquired righty Enrique Burgos from the Diamondbacks for cash. Burgos had recently been designated for assignment by Arizona to open up a spot on their 40-man roster. He's pitched often the last two seasons for the big league club (73 total games) and struggled with control and keeping the ball in yard. Burgos can strikeout a small village, but like many young arms the Braves take a chance on, he's prone to losing the strike zone on the regular. This season, in 13 innings, he's walked eleven. His walk rate has fluctuated between 11.5% and 22.7% during his career, but it's typically in the 13%-15% range. That puts a lot of unneeded stress on a pitcher.

His control issues also present themselves in another way - because he can't control the strike zone, when a pitch does flutter into the zone (typically in hitter's counts), it leads to good contact. AZ Snake Pit put it this way when referring to his numbers in the majors the last two years, "If we look at the 214 relievers with 60+ innings in 2015-16, Burgos’s BABIP of .339 ranks ninth. And his LOB% (runners left on base) of 65.8% ranks 209th. Put another way, when batters put the ball in play against him, they were considerably more likely than usual to get on base. And when runners got on base, they were considerably more likely to come around and score, rather than be stranded. The former is partly on Burgos; his hard-hit rate was 34.3%, ranking him 21st, and those hard-hit balls are more likely to turn into hits."

Burgos has a good fastball that averages 95.7 mph in the majors. He pairs that with a slider that is roughly 8 mph slower. If he can get ahead on the fastball, the slider has swing-and-miss properties.

If you are curious, Burgos has used his final option this season.

Whether or not Burgos joins Adams in the major leagues at some point is unknown. His numbers don't warrant a call-up. Right now, he's a project for the Braves to work with. A scout probably saw something that might be fixable. Hopefully, it is. Either way, you always take a chance on power arms when you can get them for cheap.

Friday, May 19, 2017

#AskCoppy Recap

Earlier today, Atlanta Braves general manager John Coppolella did another #AskCoppy on the twitters. I missed the entire thing because for some reason, I had kids and they annoyed me with wanting to have family time. I mean, honestly, what kind of evil children want you to play with them, color, and hang out? My evil children.

As such, I'm going to need to catch up on the Q&A session. Maybe you're like me and missed it, too, and I'm saving you some time by recapping. You're welcome, by the way. Usually, I embed tweets, but for the sake of my sanity, I'd rather we just do a quick-and-gritty recap. An Emilio Bonifacio recap, if you will.

Coppy says they are looking to improve the bullpen and hopeful that "those answers come from our farm system." Recently, I suggested Lucas Sims and possibly Sean Newcomb as possible answers. Let them get their feet wet with bullpen work. Coppy mentioned Sims later, but only as a possibility should the Braves need a starting pitcher. He does laud his improved control and changeup.

James Loney's signing yesterday may not be the final pickup the Braves make to try to add depth at first base. According to Coppy, they will explore the trade market. Might they see about Christian Walker, a right-handed hitting option the Braves briefly had during spring training who is absolutely raking for Reno in the Pacific Coast League? Another option the Braves are going to look at is Carlos Franco, who was promoted to Triple-A today.

Coppy recommends Fox Bros. and Yard House if you are considering where to eat around the stadium.

The Braves are trying to add draft choices, but teams are less willing to surrender them compared to previous years. Atlanta has previously used acquired draft choices for Austin Riley and Brett Cumberland among others.

Here's a surprise for me...Kris Medlen is still an Atlanta Brave. The Braves signed him last January, but two months later, he was released according to reports. However, a week later, his MILB page shows him assigned to extended spring training. According to Coppy, after a six shutout inning start recently in extending spring training, he'll be headed to an affiliate soon. (7:30 edit: It's been announced that Medlen will start this Saturday for Florida). Another veteran, Rex Brothers, could also join an affiliate very soon.

Luiz Gohara is expected to miss one start after hitting the DL with a triceps injury this week. "Precautionary" move by the Braves according to Coppy. Another prospect, Ozzie Albies, is just not ready for a callup as another question suggested moving Brandon Phillips to first. Meanwhile, Coppy wouldn't rule out the possibility to seeing 19-year-olds Kolby Allard and Mike Soroka this season. Highly unlikely, though.

Speaking of prospects, A.J. Minter is "throwing" and the Braves are hopeful he can finally get back on the mound in a couple of weeks. On the subject of injuries at the minor league level, Coppy was asked why it can be so difficult to figure out what injuries occur to minor leaguers and he explained that HIPAA laws are a part of it. One minor leaguer's injury was discussed, though. Kyle Kinman had Tommy John surgery and is out for the season.

Considering a big splash at third base and could use prospects to facilitate a deal. Restart the Evan Longoria-to-Atlanta rumor, guys.

OutfieldFlyRule's Andy Harris asked how much Statcast was being used. "We definitely use it, but like everything it is just one piece of the puzzle.  Lots of factors go into each decision, but it's cool stuff." Translation...it's cool. These are the kind of answers that are both intriguing and disappointing. I'd like to see Coppy's answer look more like, "It's incredibly valuable and every decision we make involves using Statcast data in some facet."

Once again, Coppy takes full responsibility for the Hector Olivera debacle. Of course, it would help if Alex Wood wasn't pitching like a Cy Young candidate.

There's a chance that Sean Rodriguez is going to play this year. But...it's not likely.

On the earlier season move of bringing up Aaron Blair for a couple of days before replacing him with Matt Wisler, Coppy explained that Blair was up in case an arm was needed while Wisler was being given a chance to claim a bullpen spot, but as we know, he ultimately failed.

Coppy says Dustin Peterson will be back in a week. Guess what? He was in tonight's Gwinnett starting lineup. On the other hand, Alex Jackson hit the DL today. No fractures, but he's dealing with some soreness. I still haven't seen what exactly the injury is.

So, that's my recap. Once again, we are very lucky to have Coppy in that he's willing to spend two-and-a-half hours answering questions to Braves fans a day after finding out his best player is gone for two months.

Saturday, May 13, 2017

Saturday Stats Pack - Freeman, Krol, Ender, Bonifacio

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0], via Wikimedia Commons
203 wRC+

I can probably make an entire article out of the absolutely insane numbers Freddie Freeman is posting, but for today, let's focus on his Weighted Runs Created Plus, or wRC+. This is one of my favorite offensive stats because it combines total offensive performance, park factor, and league factors all in one easy to compare statistic. Freeman is currently one of six players over the 200 wRC+ mark - that is to say, they are 100%+ better than the league average. Since 1960, we have only seen seven 200 wRC+ or better seasons. Barry Bonds did it four consecutive years from '01-'04 while Jeff Bagwell and Frank Thomas each did it in the strike-shortened 1994. Mark McGwire's 70-homer campaign in 1998 is the only other example of this elite form of accomplishment. No Brave has ever done it. In fact, the closest a Brave ever came was Rogers Hornsby's one season with the Braves back in 1928 (196 wRC+). Hank Aaron holds the top Atlanta-mark with a 191 in 1971. Can Freeman keep up the pace? History is not on his side, but if he was able to do so, it would be a historic season for the Braves.

Going-Going-Gone

Ian Krol was an excellent performer for the Braves last season with a 2.91/2.97/2.81 FIP/xFIP/SIERA triple slash. There was plenty of reason to believe he would continue to help anchor a bullpen that supposedly was improved. Instead, he is one of the primary reasons for the pen's struggles. His groundball rate is down nearly 16%. This has led to more flyballs and with his hard-hit rate up nearly 10%, more of those flyballs are traveling a long way. He surrendered four homers last season. This year? Four in 37.1 fewer innings. To put that in another way, 23.5% of his flyballs have turned into goners. That's highly unlikely to continue and if it did, it's impossible to believe he would reach the 50-inning plateau. But if that rate continued over 50 innings, his 23.5% HR/FB rate would rank as tied for the tenth worst since the stat was introduced in 2002. Some of the names ahead of him - Todd Coffey, Yohan Flande, Roman Colon, Sergio Mitre, and Jonny Venters. Yep, Venters had a 24% HR/FB rate in 2012, which is also the last time we saw him in the majors.

Now the Unquestioned Best?

You are forgiven if you think Kevin Kiermaier is the best defensive center fielder in baseball, but so far this season, there is little reason to doubt that Ender Inciarte has been on top of the heap. The converted infielder Odubel Herrera is currently the only one who is a worthy challenger to the throne. On the year, Inciarte has a 6.7 UZR. His ARM rating is second to Billy Hamilton. No player has made more out-of-the-zone plays and he's playing even better than he did last year when he won a Gold Glove. Not sure if anyone has ever said this before - let alone put it in song-form - but for right now, Ender Inciarte is simply the best. He truly is better than the rest.

5.7 IP/GS

It's a strange dynamic the Braves have. They rank just outside the top ten in innings-per-start from their rotation and are tied for tenth is quality start percentage. Despite that, no team has given up more runs per game from their starting rotation than the Braves. No team has a worse average game score than the Braves. Here's something that's also funny - no team has bequeathed fewer runners than the Braves. Brian Snitker's managing style to this point has been to let his starters try to work through whatever troubles they have and complete innings. Some of that has to be due to a troublesome bullpen, but there's also a trust-factor related to the veteran staff.

Boni's Value

I know I have been critical of Emilio Bonifacio's continued usage of a roster spot, but he is on at least one leaderboard. Only Martin Maldonado has attempted more sacrifice bunts and nobody has put more bunts down successfully than Bonifacio. He's 4-for-5 and part of the reason the Braves have attempted the second-most sacrifice bunts in baseball. Not sure if we should celebrate that - especially since they are about average at putting them down - but it's something. I guess.

Minor League Saturday Stats Pack

Gwinnett - 25% 

With him back in Gwinnett after a short time in Atlanta, let's look at one of the stranger stats in the system. In 66 PA, Lane Adams has a 25% ground-ball rate. To put that into perspective, much has been made about Yonder Alonso's re-worked swing to get more elevation on the ball. It's working wonders for him and his groundball rate went from 44% to 24.7% overnight. Adams has always been in the low 40's in groundball rate so it's worth a look to see if this continues.

Mississippi - 20% or better

Imagine being a Southern League hitter facing the Mississippi Braves. You know they will bring their vaunted rotation with them, but just how tough have they been on hitters? Each of their starters has carried a 20% or better strikeout rate this season. Kolby Allard has a 20.4% rate, Max Fried checks in at 23.3%, Matt Withrow is next with a 23.4%, Mike Soroka is at 23.9%, and Patrick Weigel is a shade under a quarter of all batters as he K'd 24.8%. Weigel has since been promoted, but don't rejoice Southern League hitters. His replacement, Luiz Gohara, was striking out 26.7% of Florida State League batters.

Florida - Breakthrough Power

It's fair to criticize the Braves taking a chance on Alex Jackson. Not only had he been a failure in the Mariners' system, but he had work ethic concerns. I wasn't critical, though. I spoke of minor improvements in his batted ball rates and plate discipline. Truth be told, I was just reaching for reasons to show my optimism was fact-based. So far, I apparently had reason to believe good things were coming. In 33 games, Jackson has bashed ten homers while hitting .309/.363/.604. He's also posted a .431 wOBA according to Fangraphs. Defensively, he still has some issues to work through - as he should since he's played in the outfield since being drafted and is switching back to catcher - but so far, this trade looks like a good one for the Braves.

Rome - ERA Not Telling the Whole Story

With a 4.03 ERA, it's easy to ignore Joey Wentz when compared to Ian Anderson and Bryse Wilson, each with much more impressive marks. However, Wentz betters both in FIP and xFIP (2.26/3.29). This is due to Wentz's polished performance on the mound. He's walked just 5.7% of opposing batters, nearly 4% less than Wilson and close to 9% less than Anderson. While his strikeout rate is well below Anderson's, it's just a tick below Wilson's and like Anderson, he hasn't surrendered a homerun. No matter how you slice it, for the second consecutive season, the Rome Braves have an uber-exciting pitching staff.