Ian Krol - One Hit Wonder or Diamond in the Rough?

N. Markakis and I. Krol / By Staff Sgt. Jason Duhr [Public domain],
via Wikimedia Commons

When the Braves acquired left-hander Ian Krol from the Detroit Tigers last winter, fans were not that impressed. The player he was traded for, Cameron Maybin, had been a fan favorite during the 2015 season and many felt that he was worth more than a lefty reliever with less-than-studly totals in the majors. Maybin's value was at its highest around the trade deadline, when I wondered at my old About.com gig if a trade made sense.

But a trade didn't happen until November. As Demetrius Bell of Talking Chop wrote, "The Braves could have (and arguably should have) gotten more with a Maybin trade at that point, since the return for Atlanta here and now isn't exactly the most inspiring." He's not wrong. In addition to Krol, the Braves got Gabe Speier, a left-handed bullpen piece in A-ball. The latter would soon be traded to the Diamondbacks in the Dansby Swanson trade.

That left Krol, who was being traded to his fourth organization since 2012. Over the previous three seasons, he had appeared in 110 games in the majors with a 4.91 ERA and equally underwhelming 5.03 FIP. He gave up a ridiculous sum of homeruns (15 in 88 ING, 1.5 HR/9) and while righties owned him, his marks against lefty weren't stout enough to suggest he was a left-hand specialist. Hardly the kind of return some had dreamed of for Maybin.

Things wouldn't look much better that spring. In seven games, Krol pitched 5.2 innings and allowed eight runs. he walked four compared to three strikeouts and despite not having a lot of competition from lefthanders, the Braves chose to demote Krol and bring back Eric O'Flaherty, who had just failed to make the Pirates' roster.

Krol headed to Gwinnett, where he was up-and-down. However, one thing he was doing a good job of was getting strikeouts. In 12.1 innings, he struck out 14 compared to six walks. The Braves and Krol were beginning to tweak the lefty's pitch selection and it would pay off big for both.

Before 2015, Krol worked off a four-seamer, a curve, and a changeup. The problem was he was basically living off his fastball, which has mid-90's velocity and good natural sink to it. It's a plus pitch, but without the secondary offerings, his fastball is wasted as he tries to survive at-bats rather than dominate them. While with the Tigers in 2015, he began to tinker with a two-seam sinking fastball and a hard slider. The sinker got a good deal of whiffs - especially when you compare the pitch to others' sinkers. However, it was his slider that became difficult to handle. Rather than a sweeping slider, it's thrown very hard and with some 12-6 movement to it. 18% of the time he threw the pitch in 2015, it was swung-on-and-missed.

Yet, Krol's results still looked miserable. Part of the problem was that Krol was throwing too many pitches. In 2015, he relied on his fourseamer 49% of the time, his slider 22% of the time, the sinker 12% of the time, and then used his curve and change-up a combined 17% of the time. Relievers rarely need five pitches, especially ones who throw a 95 mph fastball. Further, he wasn't throwing either the curve or change-up for strikes, further limiting their effectiveness. The Braves pushed Krol to rarely throw his curve and changeup and, instead, throw his sinker and slider more.

Once Krol got back to the majors in May, it was pretty clear that he wasn't the same guy who forced the Braves to go shopping for a lefthander at the end of spring training. Consider this: In 2013, Krol had multiple strikeout games six times. In 2014, he did it seven times. The next season, he did it five times. In May of 2016, despite being called up on the tenth, Krol had multiple-K games six times. He would finish with 14 over the season. He was simply a more dominant pitcher and that was in no small part to pitch selection.

The Braves also continued Detroit's work with Krol's release point. Compare these two videos. While they aren't exact copies in angle, it gives you an idea of a tweak that began with the Tigers that also shows up in the numbers.





In the first video, which is much better for looking at pitching mechanics, we see footage of Krol in 2013. That season, he had a vertical release point of about 5.8. Keep in mind that vertical release points can change with different pitches. Also, it's worth remembering that Krol is listed at 6'1". With that in mind, his average vertical release point last year was a shade over six feet - closer to 6.2 on his fastballs. You may notice I used decimal points for release point rather than a traditional feet/inches display. This is because PITCHf/x does it by decimals so 6.2 is actually a bit lower than 6'2" because 12 inches is squeezed into 10 decimal points. For more on release points, check out this Five-Thirty-Eight article on a former Cy Young Award winner.

The results speak for themselves. In 2016, Krol struck out 25.8% of batters, a 6% rise in strikeouts. Conversely, he walked just 6%, a drop from its previous level of 9.5%. His biggest gains came in batted ball, though. He went from a 41.2% groundball rate to a 52% rate in 2016. That's a significant change. Further, the sinker and slider have finally neutralized righties for Krol. Before 2016, Krol had a 6.22 FIP against righties and a 2.3 HR/9. In 2016, he nearly cut that FIP in half (3.12) and lowered his HR/9 against them to a far more workable 0.93 HR/9.

Can Krol repeat this in 2017? Well, the Braves did change pitching coaches and Krol's success reminds me what former pitching coach Roger McDowell stressed so frequently (sinkers and grounders). That said, much of the work began with the Tigers in 2015 and was only refined and tweaked by the Braves last year. That gives me hope that Krol will continue to pitch well into next season.

Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Mallex, Flowers, Teheran, Vizzy

Back by no demand is this week's Saturday Stats Pack. Later on this afternoon, expect a minor league version of this series. Just a reminder that when I use Baseball-Reference Play Index, the data goes back to 1913 in many cases.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

A Different 20/20 Club

No one doubts that Mallex Smith is a fast baserunner, but with a 50% stolen base rate in his first 14 attempts, he has been as much of a problem when taking off as he has been an asset. It got me thinking - what is the most stolen base attempts by a player with a 50% success rate? That honor belongs to George Grantham in 1924, who was caught in half of his 42 attempts. Grantham would never again steal more than 14 bases. Perhaps his manager thought "that'll do." Grantham's 50% mark in at least 40 attempts isn't the worst in history, by the way. That distinction belongs to Pat Duncan, who, in 1922, was caught in 28-of-40 attempts for the Reds.

Another Power Outage Note

Currently, 18 players have at least 100 plate appearances in 2016 and have hit zero homeruns. 22%, or four total, have done their lack of damage with the Braves. They include Erick Aybar, Ender Inciarte, A.J. Pierzynski, and Daniel Castro. If he gets 31 more at-bats before homering, Chase d'Arnaud has a chance to make it five. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

Tyler Hits It Hard, Not High

If you are looking for bright spots this year for the Braves, you would find one in Tyler Flowers. While he has had to share time with Pierzynski because the Braves hate nice things, Flowers has slashed .253/.360/.347 in 111 PA. If that doesn't seem great to you, it's probably because it really isn't. If it does seem great to you, then you are probably a Braves fan and you realize that a .708 OPS places Flowers among the top hitters on the team. Flowers has also done a great job putting velocity on the ball. No other Brave can match his 94.3 mph average exit velocity, good for a spot in the Top 20 in baseball using MLB Statcast. However, with a level swing, Flowers rarely puts a lot of air under the ball. The average launch angle is just 7.1 feet while the average height is 26 feet, marks that are backed up by just a 31.7% flyball rate. But who cares when he has a 20% line-drive rate?

You Had One Job!

Ian Krol's call-up was met with eye-rolling, but so far - so good. Yes, righties are teeing off him, but the one job Krol was supposed to fill this season after being acquired in the Cameron Maybin deal was to get out lefthanders. In a division with Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, and Christian Yelich among others - having a player capable of neutralizing those big boys to some degree is a must. Krol has done that since being called up from Gwinnett. Of the 20 lefties he has faced, only three have reached first base safely (two singles and a HBP). Eight have struck out. Krol might never develop into a true full-inning reliever, but there's always room in a bullpen for a LOOGY.

Teheran's Unusual "Wildness"

Baseball is a quirky game with a collection of stats - some more enlightening than others. One of the least-informative stats might be wild pitches. At a quick glance, it might tell us that the pitcher is prone to wildness, but that's not always the case. Take Julio Teheran, who has thrown a half-dozen wild pitches so far this year. That not only ties him with Pittsburgh's Jon Niese for the most wild pitches in the National League, but Teheran's six wild pitches tie his career record coming into 2016. Not his personal high, but his total of wild pitches in over 600 innings before 2016. Is Teheran struggling with the zone? Not really. His 2.7 BB/9 is right in tune with his career average and his zone rating of 50.3% (PITCHf/x) is as well. But baseball is weird sometimes so instead of a pitch in the dirty getting away from the catcher with nobody on, now there is a runner on and that player advances.

Arodys Time

I am a huge fan of Arodys Vizcaino. Maybe it's because he's the best reliever Atlanta has and nobody else on the team can match his nastiness on the mound. Whatever the reason, I get excited when I see him pitch. Yet, I still am surprised when I look at the MLB Statcast leaderboard and see just where Vizzy's stuff ranks compared to the rest of the league. Nobody throws a harder two-seam fastball than Vizzy's 98.2 mph average velocity heater. It's the third fastest pitch in baseball in terms of average pitch and carries an average spin rate of 2,358 rpm, which compares well to the best pitches in the league. His four-seamer isn't so shabby either (97.3 average mph & 2,418 rpm).

That's it for this week. Hope you enjoyed.

This Week at AtlantaBraves.About.com

Here's a list of articles I wrote this week at my other blog, AtlantaBraves.About.Com. All article links open to a new tab/window.

5 for Monday: Trades, the Hall of Fame, and more
-Weekly review article focuses on the chances of trading either Michael Bourn or Nick Swisher, the Hall of Fame chances of ex-Braves, looking back at the Cameron Maybin deal, and more.

Ken Griffey Jr.: The Almost Brave
-If you are a Braves fan, you remember the many times Ken Griffey Jr. seemed like a future Brave. It goes all the way back to before Junior became a Red and hit a boiling point after the 2008 season. But no matter how close he came, he never joined the Braves. Relive the rumors.

KJ Re-Braves - Again!
-Another year, another year for my mancrush, Kelly Johnson. Here is a look at what KJ for the Braves in 2016 means.

Atlanta Braves Say Goodbye to Joey Terdoslavich
-For Lynchburg Hillcats fans during the Braves era, Joey Terdoslavich was one of the best players during the four years. His year was magical to witness. Unfortunately, none of the seasons that came after stood up to that level.

Who Are The Top 10 Teams in Atlanta Braves Franchise History (updated)
-My continued look at the top teams in franchise history focuses again on a pre-1900 club as the #7 team. The list so far has included 3 Boston teams and one Milwaukee club. That will change as we move forward in the list. Until then, enjoy the exploits of Kid Nichols, Vic Willis, and Hugh Duffy.

Reviewing Hart's Trades: Johnson for Swish/Bourn/CASH

The Braves have been active in John Hart's first season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.

With most of the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.

Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
Gattis for Foltynewicz and Ruiz
Hale for Briceno
Elander for Cahill and Lots of Cash
The Craig Kimbrel Trade
Callaspo for Uribe
Gosselin for Touki
KJ/Uribe for Whalen/Gant
The Hector Olivera Trade

The Trade
Chris Johnson to the Indians for Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, and cash. There's a review of this trade over at About.com.

The Rationale

Classic Johnson!
Scott Cunningham | Getty

I once pondered how big of a mistake Chris Johnson's extension was. Turned out it was a pretty big one. Frank Wren, with the assistance of John Hart and at least John Coppolella in the room, chose to extend Johnson at the wrong time. After a 2.5 fWAR 2013 campaign, the Braves seemed to think that would suddenly become the norm after posting a 0.8 fWAR in over 300 games in the majors before that. It was dumb. He followed with a 0.2 fWAR year in 2014 and was doing even worse in 2015. Some point to the BABIP and that certainly was a big factor, but every other metric declined except K% (it went up).

The Braves looked at his salary of $7.5M in 2016 and at least $10M in 2017 (including a $1M buyout for 2018). Yeah, 2017 - the magical season. No way were they on board with guys who suck getting paid in 2017.

But getting paid in 2016? Sure! The Indians conversely wanted financial freedom in 2016 and saw a chance to cut some salary (and get rid of a pair of veterans). Nick Swisher was super productive with the Yankees (124-134 RC+ from 2009-12) so the Indians weren't completely idiotic to sign him after the 2012 season. Nor were they totally stupid to sign Michael Bourn after a 6.2 fWAR year in 2012 with the Braves. Still...four years each with vesting options and a combined $104M? Here's a clip from Scrubs to explain my thoughts.

Both teams saw a way to get financial freedom. The Indians sent either $10M (if you believe Cot) or $15M (if you believe David O'Brien), giving the Braves essentially a free Swisher and when you take away what Johnson was going to make anyway, the Braves added $6.5M or $11.5M in salary for 2016. The Braves didn't add much provided the vesting options don't, ya know, vest. Meanwhile, they got rid of the disgruntled Johnson. The Indians didn't save much money, but did turn two roster spots held up by overpaid veterans into one spot...held up by an overpaid veteran.

Short-Term Results
Unsurprisingly, none of the players in this deal did much after the trade. Swish did belt four homers and walked a crapload in 149 PA, putting up a 99 RC+ compared to the 51 before the trade. He also gave the Braves a decent enough option at first base where he is historically an average defender.

Bourn actually played a little worse at the plate, but did play better in the field, albeit in small sample sizes. As good as Bourn played center in 2012, his defensive metrics have trended toward bad in Cleveland and with him not the speed threat he once was, Bourn might be limited to left field if you want him to be a competent defender.

Johnson got off to a fast start in Cleveland, but cooled off down the stretch. Some will look at his .289 average and say he was "back," but he needed a .391 BABIP to do that and even with it, he still posted a 87 RC+ in 27 games. With his defense, he needs 2013-level RC+ (127) to be a plus player in the big leagues. He did play more first base after the trade than third base and would have played in more games, but a spider bite kept him off the team for a few weeks. Unfortunately, it appeared to give him no spidey senses.

Long-Term Outlook
The Braves would love if another team wants to take Bourn and/or Swisher off their hands and with the investment by the Indians, they could conceivably add in some cash themselves to facilitate a deal, but they would have to find a team interested. Maybe they could take on a bad salary that's less than either player and pay the difference, but chances are there is little chance that a trade helps them in any way.

The early thought was that the Braves would platoon Bourn and Swisher in left field, which could limit at-bats and keep their vesting options for 2017 from vesting. But with Hector Olivera moving out to left field, that put another wrench in the plans. Cameron Maybin could be dealt, opening up at-bats for Bourn until Mallex Smith takes over. Of course, if the Braves completely self-destruct the roster with trades like sending Freddie Freeman packing, that would allow Swisher a bigger opportunity for at-bats.

Either way, neither player can be allowed to have their contracts vest ($14M for Swish, $12M for Bourn). This not only keeps the Braves from paying big salaries to veterans unlikely to deserve it, but if either is remotely reproductive, the Braves would retain higher trade value if the chances of a vesting option actually vesting is remote.

Meanwhile, Johnson could be traded himself though Cleveland doesn't have a wealth of better options either. Carlos Santana will likely either DH or play first base while 23 year-old Giovanny Urshela is well-liked, but OPS'd .608 in his rookie season. Right now, there would appear to be at-bats for Johnson if he doesn't get moved, but either way, I doubt we see his 2013 season duplicated. He needed a special set of circumstances to fall his way to achieve that success and to his credit, he cashed in on an extension while the Braves were handing them out like Oprah hands out cars.

It was a mistake to extend Johnson and the Braves' answer to that mistake may have not been a brilliant one. On one side, it's easier to deal players with one year-deals (the Braves needed to take two bad players to get rid of a two-year deal after all). On the other end, taking up two spots seems like an unnecessary evil to deal with one bad player. How this works out is anyone's guess, but from a fan's perspective, it was just nice to get rid of a problem that had exhausted patience.

Reviewing Hart's Trades: The Craig Kimbrel Deal

The Braves have been active in John Hart's first season at the helm to the tune of SIXTEEN TRADES! Sixteen deals involving major league talent going one direction or in both. Sixteen deals that include over 50 different players, a few draft picks, lots of cash, and two Uptons. It's been friggin unreal to see what the Braves have done.

With most of the season in our rear view, it's time to start reviewing each one of these trades. This series is going take a little while to get through, but hey, it gives me something to write about.

Trades Already Reviewed
La Stella for Vizcaino
Heyward/Walden for Miller/Jenkins
Varvaro for Kurcz
J. Upton for Jace Peterson and prospects
Carp/Shreve for Banulos
Kubitza/Hyatt for Sanchez
Gattis for Foltynewicz and Ruiz
Hale for Briceno
Elander for Cahill and Lots of Cash

The Trade
Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton to the Padres for Cameron Maybin, Matt Wisler, Carlos Quentin, Jordan Paroubeck, and a 2015 draft choice (Austin Riley). I looking at those leaving and coming at this blog and a deeper look over at About.com.

The Rationale
A month ago, as I went over the Justin Upton trade, I wrote this: "(A.J.) Preller could say he held out and didn't give the Braves the pitcher they really wanted - Matt Wisler. Of course, that would change when Preller got so desperate to put a bow on his first offseason, but we'll get to that deal later." Welcome to later. It's hard to decide what was the most surprising thing about this trade. That the Braves had moved Kimbrel, who we were told was untouchable? That the deal came hours before the season was set to begin? Or, if you were like me, was it that the Braves found a team so desperate - so foolish - to take on an additional $50 million in payroll just to get an elite closer?

Jim McIssac | Getty

A lot of people hated this trade, but not for its impact on the Braves team so much as losing yet another homegrown, popular player. Sure, losing the despised elder Upton and his contract helped matters, but Kimbrel was loved in Atlanta who had broken the franchise record for saves before he turned 27. He was the last remaining piece of the super successful O'Ventbrel with southpaws Jonny Venters and Eric O'Flaherty. He was our chosen one who sat in a bullpen in Los Angeles while Fredi Gonzalez arbitrarily counted the amount of outs Kimbrel was "good for" even as the 2013 season went down in flames.

But even the greatest closer in franchise history only throws 60-70 innings. Closers are overvalued because of their mystique. Was Kimbrel overpaid? Not according to the market, but was he too expensive for the Braves? Absolutely. He was about to enter Year 2 of his 4 year, $41M contract with a team option that could increase it to $52M. The Braves saw a chance to clear the books and while they stuck with the company line that they loved Kimbrel and wouldn't trade him, even they saw future payrolls and wondered if Kimbrel was worth it.

Getting rid of Upton just made the exchange easier. A big red mark on Frank Wren's time in Atlanta, Upton had been offered $75M over five years to come to Atlanta despite a .255 career batting average and .298 OBP in his walk year with the Rays. The Braves basically put $75M on red during roulette. They would either come out of it looking like roses or things would go about as bad as you could imagine.

Of course, it went the latter. In two seasons, Upton slashed .198/.279/.314 with 21 HR, 32 SB, and 324 strikeouts. The Braves were desperate to find a taker for the $46.5M left on his contract. The Cubs flirted with the idea of sending Edwin Jackson to the Braves for Upton, but nothing materialized. It was a foregone conclusion that even if the Braves traded Upton, they would be taking on some, if not the majority of, the remaining salary.

But that's where the Padres stepped in. A.J. Preller had been nearly as active as the new Braves front office during the offseason. He had already traded for Justin Upton from the Braves while adding Wil Myers and Matt Kemp because defense is totally optional. With James Shields, Derek Norris, and Will Middlebrooks also in place, Preller assumed he had built a juggernaut. He assumed very wrong, but as the season was about to open, he saw an opportunity to put a cherry on the top. Mr. Kimbrel. Sure, the Pads still had Joaquin Benoit, who was more than capable, but he was no Kimbrel. Plus, with Kimbrel, the bullpen would be much deeper. Sure, they would have to add the other Upton, but they already had a glut of outfielders, as the rest of the deal showed.

Getting rid of Maybin and Quentin cleared up things for the Padres, who also had Will Venable. With Melvin missing the first couple of months, it allowed the Padres plenty of time to work him in slowly while keeping Venable in a 4th outfielder role because their super duper outfield was, well, super duper. Of course, where Melvin fit in was confusing, but KIMBREL!

Maybin was a bust in San Diego after signing a long-term deal when he first became arbitration-eligible. He had played in 109 games over the previous two years and had a .665 OPS over four years with the Padres. They didn't have a place for him and were glad to shed his salary. Quentin's inclusion was weird because the Braves released him soon after, but the latter was part of the plan. Quentin had no-trade protection and wanted to get the freedom to try to jumpstart his career elsewhere, preferably with a team that played 95% of their games with a DH. My friend Bryce theorized the inclusion of Quentin was so that the deal would get done without the need for commissioner approval rather than the Braves packaging money to help pay for the Padres to release Quentin themselves.

Paroubeck was an interesting prospect in the long-term. Incredibly raw with athletic ability off the charts, Paroubeck was a second-rounder in 2013, who didn't make his debut until the following season. The production was there, but again, as interesting as he was, it was like adding another draft choice to the organization considering how little he had played and how young he was. Speaking of draft choices, we didn't know it at the time, but the 41st selection of the 2015 draft would quickly pay dividends.

As for the guy the Braves had wanted for Melvin's older brother earlier in the offseason, Wisler was ticketed for a return trip to El Paso before the trade. It's where he landed the previous spring and after sulking because he felt he deserved a look over the pitchers the Padres kept, Wisler was demoted back to AA to try to jumpstart his season. Overall, he had finished with a 5.01 ERA in AAA. Even with that in mind, Baseball America ranked him the #34 prospect in baseball. He was one of just two Padres prospects ranked by BA, Baseball Prospectus, and MLB.com in the top 100 (Hunter Renfroe was the other).

Short-Term Results
The Padres remade their team and won three fewer games in doing so. Adding Kimbrel aided the pen, which was fairly good as a result. He struggled early (for him), but Kimbrel turned it on late. Homers were a bit of a problem, but a career-high rate in HR/FB may have been a bit flukish. It turns out to be his worse full season in the majors both in saves and xFIP/SIERA. However, Kimbrel's so damn good that having 39 saves, a 2.46 xFIP, and 2.21 SIERA is considered a down year. But the Padres learned what the Braves already were aware of - having a great closer is a luxery, but only makes a bad ballclub moderately better.

Of more interest was Melvin's resurgence. Sure, he was limited to just 87 games, but he slashed .259/.327/.429 with a 110 RC+. His last three years in Tampa averaged a 109 RC+ so that was impressive. I'm not sold on it continuing as Melvin's .348 BABIP was his highest since his 2007-08 days when he walked a lot and hit for a good average. That said, a pull rate that leaped over 50% might suggest that Upton's clunky approach at the plate was adjusted and gave him a better chance at getting around on balls, which led to a career-best line drive rate.

Just to touch on a few of the short-timers...Quentin caught on with the Mariners organization, but quickly decided that enough was enough and hung up his spikes at the ripe old age of just 32. Paroubeck was traded before he played a game in the organization. Nursing an injury, he was moved, along with Caleb Dirks, to the Dodgers on July 2 for an international bonus slot that helped the Braves sign their pair of high-priced international guys.

Now, to the meat. Maybin had a wonderful first half, but fell off the map in the second half, which led to a .267/.327/.370 final slash with 10 HR, 23 steals, and defensive metrics sour on him. He did play in 141 games after 109 the previous two seasons so that was a plus. His first half numbers were exciting, too. Who doesn't want .289/.356/.418 from your center fielder who, I wager, is better in the field that the -5.3 adjusted defensive rating Fangraphs gave him.

As for Wisler, there were both good and bad parts of his game this season. he remained a durable arm and threw 109 innings in the majors along with 65 in Gwinnett. Curiously, his strikeout rate fell from the 8.6 per nine rate he had been pulling before 2015 to a bit over 6 per nine. In addition, his xFIP and SIERA were not pretty (both around 5.00). While his late season starts look good, the results are not really supported in the numbers, though the same size is VERY VERY SMALL.

Finally, there is Riley, the prep pitcher who just wanted a chance to hit. The Braves gave him that chance and he smacked a dozen homers in 60 games. He has received some aggressive rankings since then (including #11 by me) and it might be premature for a guy who K'd a quarter of his plate appearances, but you just don't see many 18 year-olds brutalize the Appalachian League.

Long-Term Outlook
The Padres are on the hook for at least two more seasons of both Kimbrel and Melvin, though they have been rumored to be at least listening to offers on Kimbrel. And there in lies the accepted conundrum with Kimbrel. As good as he is, you still feel kind of dumb paying $24M for the next two innings for 130 innings. Granted, if you have an endless payroll, screw it. But for teams like the Padres and Braves, does paying that much money for so few actual innings make financial sense?

On the flipside, if Melvin keeps hitting, regardless with what happens with Kimbrel, the Padres will at least have that to hang their hat on. Yay...

Atlanta is stocked with veteran outfielders in 2016 and Maybin could be on the market, though I tend to think the Braves like the idea of letting Mallex Smith get a spring under the veterans, a few more months in Gwinnett to buy another pre-arbitration season, and bring up their hot prospect only after things clear up in Atlanta. It allows the Braves more depth to limit Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher's at-bats to keep their vesting options from triggering (which, if they produce, could help their trade value). I'm sure Atlanta will listen to offers on Maybin, but they need an upgrade to the roster to make a deal - not just more prospects.

The bigger picture rests on the arm of Wisler and the bat of Riley. Will Wisler clean up his game to become the middle-of-the-staff force many felt him capable of? It's definitely possible and if he makes that step in 2016, all the better. Atlanta could use the depth behind the projected rotation of Shelby Miller, Julio Teheran, zombie Mike Minor, and...well, that's it. Meanwhile, power is a commodity that the Braves are short on and while Riley is a number of years away from likely getting into the picture, Atlanta could use his presence.

All in all, this deal might be the best one the Holy John Trinity made in their first year. Yeah, a certain Diamondbacks deal ranks very high, but this particular trade was a franchise changer. It moved bad contracts while only adding Maybin's affordable contract post-2015. It brought two big young players to the system and it gave the Braves a chance to move beyond the awfulness of watching Melvin suck.

This Week at AtlantaBraves.About.com

If you weren't aware, I also publish posts at atlantabraves.about.com. I typically post a few times each week over there and here are my three most recent articles there.

Braves New GM Means Little Has Changed

When John Coppolella was "promoted" into his new job, it didn't mean much had actually been altered about the Braves braintrust. Over the last year+, Coppy has been basically the guy in charge of things with John Hart as his advisor. It was Coppy that did the legwork for deals that sent Craig Kimbrel to San Diego and Alex Wood to the Dodgers while bringing back players like Matt Wisler, Cameron Maybin, and Hector Olivera. Coppy was also instrumental in re-working the minor league system as the Braves gave him the freedom to do what they refused to do under his predecessor - Rebuild. Whether this relationship with the other 2/3's of the Holy John Trinity above him will succeed is definitely up for debate, but Coppy gets his first shot at being a major league general manager. We'll see how it works out.

The 11 Best Moments of the 2015 Braves Season

From a 5-0 start to a double-header sweep that also included Shelby Miller's winless streak coming to a close, 2015 had a lot of great moments even as the Braves suffered through one of their worst seasons since the 80's. There was walk-offs from Adonis Garcia and Maybin, magical comebacks like the one against the Giants, the return of Peter Moylan, and the continued magic of Andrelton Simmons at shortstop - plus many more. Even in a bad year, fans were given a lot to cheer about.

Starting Pitching Options for the Braves in Free Agency

The Braves don't often venture into the free agent market for starting pitching. Several years ago, Frank Wren tried to restock the rotation with free agents Derek Lowe and Kenshin Kawakami, but since then, the rotation has often been stocked by homegrown talent, trades, and one-year pacts with guys like Ervin Santana and Aaron Harang. The good money is that the Braves won't spend much in the starting pitching market, especially considering Mike Minor looks like a guy they might bring back in 2016, but if they do go shopping, I found a few players who might help the Braves and possibly, at a good price.

Thanks for reading and remember to follow me on Twitter and bookmark both this blog and the one at About for future updates.

Random Prospect Sunday - Mallex Smith

When I reviewed the trade that sent outfielder Justin Upton to San Diego, I wrote this about outfielder Mallex Smith.

"There are some who love him, some who aren't super impressed. I'm part of the latter group. I acknowledge he's a decent enough prospect and might be a better player than I right now feel he's capable of."

Stacy Revere | Getty Images Sport

I later came around on him a little to rank him 11th in my preseason Top 30 Prospects, but again, I stressed that I wasn't sold on Smith because, "will he hit enough?" He fell to #12 once the Matt Wisler trade was announced shortly before the season began.

By midseason, I had pushed Mallex into the Top 10 at #9, jumping past Tyrell Jenkins and Braxton Davidson in the process. I kept his grade at a B-, but added that I nearly graded him a B. The more this season progresses, the more I realize I probably should have. Suddenly, I had opened my eyes to the guy the Braves knew they had acquired. A player who made Jose Peraza's leadoff ability look below-average. A guy who had the speed to prompt bloggers to ponder if the Braves had the next Billy Hamilton. The Braves had acquired the guy who - hopefully - will be their long-term option in center field.

Smith was born in Tallahassee, Florida on May 6, 1993. The Braves were in Denver that day, playing their first-ever game against the expansion Rockies. John Smoltz was staked to a 5-2 lead against former Braves prospect David Nied before the Braves manhandled the Rockies bullpen to turn the game into a 13-3 route and even their record at 15-15. Both David Justice and Ron Gant homered and drove in 4. The Braves would never be .500 again that season.

Immediately a prospect who excelled at baseball, Smith graduated from Rickards High School in 2011. The school has never produced a major leaguer, though football players such as Corey Fuller and William Gay are some of the alumni. So is T-Pain. I assume that's a somebody.

The Milwaukee Brewers came calling after making Smith a 13th round selection, but Mallex wasn't won over by Bernie Brewer playing on a slide. He spurned an offer from Florida State to attend Santa Fe Community College. The biggest reason was simple. Mallex wanted to be eligible to be drafted again the following year and had he attended a four-year school, he wouldn't have. The gamble paid off as Smith showed his skill set and the Padres selected Smith in the 5th round with the 165th overall pick. He signed for $255K.

Once the 19 year-old signed, he headed to the Padres' Arizona Summer League, which was age appropriate for him. He hit an impressive .344 over two months of action before a brief move to Short-Season A ball with a bunch of college draftees and veterans of previous minor league seasons. He didn't get many hits over the ten-game run, but did walk a good deal. On the season, he slashed .305/.366/.383 with a pair of homers, 17 steals, and eleven walks in 35 games. All in all, it was an impressive first season. The following year with Fort Wayne, Rome's equivalent in the Padres system, we saw some good things from Smith (11.6% walk rate, 64 steals) and some underwhelming things (.262 average, .078 ISO). The former was probably a result of a .318 BABIP.

In 2014, Smith would break out in a big way. Referred to as minor league's fastest baserunner, Smith spent the first two months of the season back in Fort Wayne before being promoted to Lake Elsinore in the California League, San Diego's top A-league team. His numbers only improved, though it's worth adding that the California League is a hitter's league so Smith's numbers would be expected to improve. He finished the final stretch of the season with his only five homers of the year, which nearly matched what he had done in the previous 210 games before joining the Storm. He also swiped 40 bases with the aid of a .414 OBP. Add that with his Fort Wayne numbers and Smith finished the year with a healthy .310/.403/.432 slash, a minor league high 88 steals, and 69 walks to go with 103 K's. It was a big, big year that earned Smith some considerably recognition. The Padres rewarded Smith with a trip to the Arizona Fall League and he excelled there as well. He reached base at a .408 clip. Baseball America crowned him the #16 prospect in what was a stout Padres system and he was rated the Fastest Baserunner in the in the Midwest League.

Smith was probably being looked at as the center fielder of the future who would be the guy to take over from players like Will Venable and, ironically enough, Cameron Maybin. That came to a close in December when the trade was announced. With only Melvin Upton Jr. in the way, Mallex's road to the majors was significantly shortened. A later deal to exchange Melvin for Maybin didn't seem like it would change that, though Maybin showed what he could accomplish if he was able to stay healthy for once.

Once 2015 opened, he crushed Southern League pitchers to the tune of .340/.418/.413, notably reaching in all but seven of the 56 games he received a plate appearance in. He added 23 steals and earned a promotion to Gwinnett in late June. He struggled to get going, but once he adjusted, the results have been on the level we have grown to accept from Smith since he became a professional. In 27 games since July 17, Smith has slashed .313/.363/.383 with 18 steals in 21 attempts.

As for the book on Smith, it starts with the speed factor. When you have an even 200 bases since the beginning of 2013, it should perk up your interest in quick fashion. Some have graded Smith's speed as an 80. That's out of a scouting scale that runs 20 to 80. It's ultra elite for anyone to ever reach 80, but Smith's speed is deserving of it. The other thing that stands out is that, unlike Peraza who was ultimately dealt, Smith knows how to take a walk. It has led him to a .379 career OBP on the heels of a .294 batting average and 10.7 BB%. That is the kind of production that you get excited about from the leadoff spot even without factoring in the speed. His pop won't impress, though it's better against right-handed pitchers historically than same-hand guys. With that in mind, he's never struggled to hit lefties. Outside of a run with Lake Elsinore, his ISO has remained below .100. So, the chances of Smith reaching an .800 OPS is minimal at best. Defensively, I've never seen any glowing reports about his abilities. The speed is clearly there, but he needs to refine things and a spring training apprenticing under Michael Bourn might help turn that into a reality.

There is a lot to be excited about when it comes to Smith. The speed stands out the most, but his overall game profiles as not just a fast leadoff hitter, but a good one. He's still rough around the edges and needs to improve his stolen base percentage along with better results in center field, but considering he just turned 22 last May, that imperfect status is what you expect out of a player. He might not get a chance to show his skills in major league games until next summer to refine his game and extend arbitration out a year, but once it does happen, he could be the star we once dreamed Rafael Furcal would become in the leadoff spot.

For an extended six minute look at Smith...with shaky cam footage worthy of a J.J. Abrams movie at times, see this video.


More Random Prospects
Fernando Miranda
Stephen Gaylor
Tyrell Jenkins

Jeff Schultz Doesn't Believe in the Process

I don't always agree with the AJC's Jeff Schultz on baseball. In fact, I rarely do. He's a blowhard who too often doesn't understand baseball while sticking to cliches. I've wrote on here before that Schultz and I didn't see eye-to-eye on letting Tim Hudson go and signing Gavin Floyd the offseason before the last. It was the smart decision. But Schultz, who is far more comfortable analyzing football, only really focuses on names over facts. Typically, I don't think much of it, but Nick on Twitter pointed out an awful column Schultz wrote and after a few tweets where I was amazed by his remarks, I figured I might as well review it in blog form.

The article, which carries the title, "Reflecting on Braves' deals: Were they worth it?," hit the AJC website Tuesday afternoon. The odd thing is that Schultz concedes that grading trades which were heavy in minor league talent is difficult a half-season after the trades, but yet, he does it. As if he had an article quota to fill or something.

His first target: Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden for Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins

Schultz doesn't miss an opportunity to stick to Wren, who - in Schultz's mind - "botched the previous Heyward negotiations and signed him for only two years." Now, none of us were in the room with Heyward and/or his agent, but I imagine Wren tried the same thing John Schuerholz once did with Brian McCann and Jeff Francoeur - similar offers to both Heyward and Freddie Freeman. But the AJC cadre of shills never miss a chance to attack Wren. To suggest the problem was created by Wren not giving Heyward a long-term extension after the 2013 season is just revisionist history. Heyward is a tough guy to value. Sabermetrics love him considerably more than more traditional stats. Regardless, the idea that not giving Heyward a long-term deal and buying out his free agent years is just piling on. Anywho, Schultz gives a B grade to the deal, ignoring Jenkins (I don't) and the injured Walden. He suggests the deal is win-win and it might be this year. But a running theme in Schultz's rush to attach grades is that these deals weren't made for 2015.

His next target: Trading Justin Upton (now known as The Good Wife Upton) along with Aaron Northcraft for Jace Peterson, Max Fried, Dustin Peterson, and Mallex Smith

Here's how I know Schultz doesn't care one bit about looking at these deals with much context. He saves all of six words for Mallex - "Smith was just promoted to Triple-A." Not a word about his .340/.418/.413 slash with Mississippi before the promotion. Yes, when you relegate this deal to J-Up for Jace, it looks pretty bad. Schultz gives the deal a C+ grade, which is damn near impressive considering his next two grades. While it took me time to warm up to this deal, it was a very good collection of talent for the Braves and they brought in four young, talented players for a guy who would be gone by midseason. Not too shabby. Would J-Up have made this Braves team better? Yeah, but who plays second? And would two more wins really help?

3rd target: Evan Gattis and James Hoyt to the Astros for Michael Foltynewicz, Rio Ruiz, and Andrew Thurman.

Here is where Schultz begins to truly go off the deep end with his criticisms. He focuses on Gattis's homers and RBIs - because they are easy numbers for him to understand. He ignores Gattis's .268 OBP. Gattis has stepped up to the plate 340 times and made 255 outs. But you don't hear about that from Schultz. No, he focuses on Gattis's homers and RBIs because those numbers tell him more. He suggests that had Gattis been brought back, he would have played left and shared catching duties with A.J. Pierzynski considering Christian Bethancourt's struggles. This completely ignores that Gattis is kept off the field by the Astros because he can't really play either left field or catcher, but I digress. Gattis is a massively overrated player because of his story. The Astros are learning that. Of the 15 AL teams, only the A's are getting worse bWAR from their DH. Schultz gives this trade a D. Unless that D stood for DamnGoodTradeMr.Hart, Schultz is a boob.

Final target: Craig Kimbrel and Melvin Upton Jr. to the Padres for Cameron Maybin, Matt Wisler, and company

Let me start by saying that he grades this an A in economics and an F in baseball. His journey to that grade is pretty horrific. "The loss of Kimbrel destroy the bullpen because Hart had no time to prepare for the deal by acquiring other relief help." This is bad analysis even for Schultz. Before this trade, Hart had signed both Jason Grilli and Jim Johnson, took a flier on Josh Outman, and added other low-risk, high-reward guys. To suggest that trading Kimbrel wrecked the pen is a stretch. It made it moderately worse, but it was the poor performances by others that wrecked the pen - performances the Braves couldn't really foresee. Now, Schultz, in his haste to make a point, glosses over Maybin's first half ("a nice surprise, but he's not a long term answer"). Why not dive into Maybin's performance a little bit? For that matter, why not mention why he's not a long-term option or do you think guys in their age-28 years are preparing for retirement. For some reason, Schultz doesn't even touch on Wisler, who has a 3.10 ERA in five starts after entering the year ranked in the Top 40 by Baseball America. Not a single word in the trade analysis. His grade is cute and all, but ultimately lacking in context. Would Kimbrel have made the team better? Not even sure. At his best, he's a 2-to-3 win player. Maybin can be that and more. As can Wisler. The Braves used one trade to upgrade their CF and eventually, their rotation and all it cost was a luxury they didn't need (an expensive closer). Grilli filled in nicely before his untimely injury. Again, Kimbrel would have made the pen better and maybe, just maybe, the team. But it would have cost them offense. It would have cost them starting pitching. Those two are more important than a shutdown guy in the ninth. Don't cut off your nose to spite your face, Schultz. And getting rid of Melvin and not paying his salary? The only possible grade for this deal is A+. Unless you're Michael Scott and you grade it an A++.

I get that not every Braves fan is going to know all the in's and out's of the Braves' moves. From a simple stand point of giving up A for B, the Braves might look like losers. But Schultz knows better than to appeal to this fan. The goal of any good journalist, of which I am not, is to both inform and entertain. This article does nothing to inform because it neglects several key points that better explain the deals. Its entertainment factor? Ehh, he mentioned Jimmy Buffett. Way to stay with the times.

If he's not going to seriously approach baseball analysis, Schultz ought to steer clear of it.

This Week at About.com

Things have been busy over at my second home, AtlantaBraves.About.com. Here is a list of this week's posts in case you missed them.

Braves Seek Young Catching

In this slideshow, I look at some of the young options the Braves could be seeking on the trade market for a long-term option at catcher. Andrew Susac would appear like a possible fit if the Giants decide he's worth giving up for Cameron Maybin. Other choices Texas's Jorge Alfaro, the Yankees' Gary Sanchez, and maybe even Toronto's Max Pentecost. Oh, and there are others. There's a decent amount of catching talent churning away.

Should the Braves Trade Cameron Maybin? 

As I investigate, that question is a loaded one. The Braves absolutely should make the move that makes them a better team. If that means trading Maybin, so be it. In this article, I search for what the Braves might look for along with arguing the pros and cons to trading the resurgent center fielder.

Pitch Framing Needs to Be Addressed for the Braves

Pop open the stats book and let's look at pitch framing for catchers. When Brian McCann was a Brave, the club was spoiled by one of the game's best catchers when it came to that skillset. But since he's left, it's been ugly behind the plate. The Braves have brought in Gerald Laird and A.J. Pierzynski over the last three years to both serve the backup role and be a mentor, both were poor at this art. Christian Bethancourt and any future catching acquisition need to work hard to improve this to the point where it's at least not a weakness.

Saturday Stats Pack for July 11

In the weekly wrap up article, I focused on team statistics and issues with the win-loss record. One big takeaway is how poor the Braves are doing against the contenders, or the teams who are at least at .500. These teams are handling the Braves with ease. This becomes problematic because over 50% of their second half games come against these teams.

When You Have One Center Fielder, Try Playing Him

When the season was set to begin with Eric Young Jr. in center field and Melvin Upton Jr. on the mend, I was hopeful that Todd Cunningham would make the team. Why? It's simple. The Braves needed a center fielder. While EYJ has certain attractive qualities (flexibility, speed), he's not a center fielder. While he made some plays this spring, people like me pondered if the plays he made were more a product of getting late starts after flyballs rather than his speed allowing him to get to balls many other players weren't capable of.

We have gotten our answer so far this season. While early season defensive metrics should naturally be taken with a healthy level of skeptism, EYJ has been pretty awful as a center fielder to this point. He has amassed -0.7 UZR, which is largely a product of a below-average range. As a 25th guy, EYJ makes your team better because he could play center field in a pinch along with left field and even second. That is valuable and historically, EYJ has been a stout left fielder where his speed plays up even more and, at the same time, his arm can be hid.

When the Braves traded for Cameron Maybin right before the season, there was no need for Cunningham. Instead, Maybin could play center field regularly. Sure, there are issues with Maybin...he strikes out too much, hasn't on-based .330 in any significant action in the majors, and is injury-prone. But he is something EYJ wasn't. A center fielder. And he was a better option than playing Melvin in center when the latter eventually was capable of returning to the Braves. Clearly, Maybin should be the starting center fielder.

Yet, 23 games into the season, EYJ has received three more starts than Maybin in center field. Fredi Gonzalez hasn't employed a platoon in the typical sense. Instead, he seems to ask a magic 8-ball for the answers. And it's not like EYJ is hitting, either. His numbers have fell to a miserable .169/.239/.292 and even if you accept that EYJ is being hit by an unlucky streak (.216 BABIP, line drive rate within his normal range), those numbers have kept Christian Bethancourt from getting starts. Why not EYJ?

Of course, it's not like Maybin's hit .377/.400/.604 though his first 60 PA, but Maybin has shown some power so far and his .354 wOBA is better than Nick Markakis. Will that continue? Probably not, but if you look at Maybin and EYJ's career marks, there's not a significant enough difference to justify one over the other offensively (EYJ carries a better OBP, Maybin a better SLG). EYJ's a better baserunner, though the only serious difference between the two is one is a capable center fielder and the other is a guy who can play around the field.

That alone should make Maybin the starter. The fact EYJ's not hitting should make the choice even easier. An underlying potential benefit to playing Maybin might be that he could increase his trade value. Maybin's owed $8M next year with a $9M team option for 2017 (or $1M buyout). This offseason, several center fielders will be hitting the open market. That could open a spot on a team searching for a stopgap option and Maybin could be had for a couple of decent prospects.

So, this is my plea. Play Maybin. Every day. Twice on Sunday provided there is a double header. Let EYJ be what he's best suited for and bring him off the bench. Make it happen, Fredi.

Breaking Down the Epic Kimbrel Trade for About.com

I've went over the Who in this article and also this one, but what about the trade and what it means for the Atlanta Braves. For that, head on over to the About.com blog where I dare to use addition to look at the financial implications plus what this trade means in the short-term and in the future. Trading Craig Kimbrel is never easy, but the deal looks like a steal for the Atlanta Braves. In the end, it was the smart move to make even if it made twitter go nuts. 

Keep reading for more.

Howdy Cameron, Matt, Jordan, 41st Overall Pick, and Carlos (also, see ya, Carlos)

A little bit ago, I looked at the players the Braves traded tonight. Now, let's look at the guys who they gained.

Carlos Quentin

Quentin is a guy miscast in the National League at this point. His knees cannot hold up to the rigors of playing in the field. He needs a spot on an AL roster where he can platoon at DH. That wasn't happening in San Diego, nor will it occur in Atlanta so the Braves soon designated him for assignment, which seems like such an NBA move (pick a guy up to even out salary exchanges just to drop him). My friend Bryce offered an interesting view. Possibly, this odd move came out of trying to avoid involving the commissioner, who often has to approve money swaps. If the Braves had to send money to cover Quentin's salary, the deal would have had a hang-up. Also, Quentin had a no-trade clause. Possibly he wanted a fresh start.

Cameron Maybin

As much as Melvin Upton might be a change of scenery guy, so too is Maybin. In 2011, Maybin was a 4.3 fWAR guy based on superb defense, 40 steal ability, and enough pop (.130). After a good follow-up 2.2 fWAR season in 2012, Maybin has played all of 109 games over the last two years in the majors and that has been worth -0.4. Yes, with a negative. If healthy, Maybin should be able to play solid defense in center and with any luck, will get his RC+ closer to even. All told, he's probably just as good as Melvin, if not better. When you add his contract situation, he's much better. Maybin is due $7M in 2015, $8M in 2016, and there is a team option worth $9M in 2017, or $1M in a buyout. So, the Braves are on the hook for just $16M for a guy who could be worth that in a single season if he is able to replicate his 2011 numbers. If not, he's easily worth the salary over the remaining life of the contract. Of course, he will have to stay healthy.

Matt Wisler

The Braves wanted Wisler over Max Fried during this winter's trade that sent Justin Upton to the Padres, but San Diego balked at including Wisler at the time. The Braves finally got their man and added a Top 5 prospect in anyone's system. Wisler is considered by many to be major-league ready and Baseball America recently rated him as the 34th best prospect in baseball. He struggled a little in the Pacific Coast League after arriving there last year, but that's not abnormal in the PCL. His homers jumped off the map (he surrendered nine homers before 1014, 21 in 2014). Good chance that we see that normalize and with his sinker movement, he could fit right in one the newly built staff. More, he probably replaced Mike Foltynewicz as the top prospect pitcher waiting for a callup. Expect to see him in Atlanta before long.

Jordan Paroubeck

My initial feeling when I saw Paroubeck was "hey, interesting throw-in." That might have been selling Paroubeck short. He's still raw, but has enticing tools that probably garnered much of the attention by the Braves front office. He's a long way from realizing them, nor will he be in the mix anytime soon in Atlanta (spent last year in rookie ball as a 19 year-old), but if the switch-hitter develops just right, he could challenge Rio Ruiz as the best hitting prospect the Braves have picked up this offseason.

The 41st Overall Pick

The cherry on top for this deal has to the 41st overall selection in the upcoming June draft. The pick is a competitive balance selection that follows the first round. Some solid players have been picked #41 over the years (Asher Wojciechowski, Sean Doolittle, Joba Chamberlain) and anytime you are picking that close to the top of the draft, it's a good thing. It will give the Braves four selections in the first 54 picks. That happened in 2006, but the Braves only were able to get two major leaguers out of it in Cory Rasmus and Jeff Locke. They will need to hit on the picks this time.