There are certain positions in sports that, despite clear flaws, you will continue to get opportunities because your skillset is forever in demand. Big men will always have a job in the NBA. You might not be a true post presence and you may get confused as to what to do with the ball in your hand, but a big body gets you jobs. True, you probably shouldn't unpack that suitcase because your flaws eventually annoy your team.
In football, every team needs a returner. True, your inability to tackle/run the ball/catch the ball/play coverage will limit you to special teams and in a number crunch, you could get your walking papers, but returners are always needed, even with the rules that cause an absurd amount of touchbacks. Your biggest threat, in addition to number crunches, is those rare situations where your competition can actually do something else other than just returning. That's when you channel your inner Tonya Harding and do what got's to be done.
In baseball, the old adage used to be that if you could pitch left-handed, you had a job. True, you might not be able to get a right-handed hitter out and the second your performance level falls, you get the boot, but don't worry. Another team is in desperate need for your ass.
But now, it's gotten to the point where if you can throw the ball with velocity, you will be taken care of. Whether you know where it's going is of less concern.
Case in point - former Atlanta Braves farmhand Erik Cordier. Despite never throwing a major league pitch, Cordier signed with the Giants last November, receiving a major league contract. Not only did the Giants give him a major league deal, but they were not alone, if MLB Trade Rumors' Tim Dierkes and his sources are correct. Two other teams offered Cordier (again, he of zero major league pitches) a spot on their 40-man roster.
Like I said, Cordier is a former Braves farmhand, joining the system during spring training of 2007. Rather than waive Tony Pena while receiving nothing, the Braves sent him to KC in exchange for the injured Cordier. For no good reason, the Royals started Pena as their every day shortstop in 2007. They also lost 93 games. Not saying it's a causation...but it's probably a causation.
Cordier would miss all of 2007, his second missed season in three years. In fact, after selecting the Wisconsin native in the second round of 2004, Cordier made just 21 starts before his trade in '07. After finally getting healthy, Cordier pitched just 45 innings in 2008 before posting solid ERAs and terrible WHIPs for two years before missing it up with a terrible ERA and terrible WHIP in 2011. Injuries limited him to just 32.1 ING in 2012.
Cordier was due to become a minor league free agent after 2012, though he spent two seasons on the 40-man roster in Atlanta as they patiently awaited his arrival to the bigs. By the end of 2012, they outrighted him and let Cordier go, finally closing the door on a trade that once provided a potential huge reward. Cordier spent 2013 in the Pirates system, converting to a full-time reliever and posting a 11.0 K/9 to go with 4.8 BB/9. And the Giants said "we gotta get ourselves some of that."
I suppose scouts got a boner watching his fastball pop into the catcher's mitt during warm-ups. For his ten-year minor league career (that includes two lost seasons to injuries), Cordier has a 4.29 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 5.0 BB/9, and 7.3 K/9. His stuff best profiles as a reliever, but even in his best year, he still got hi around a good deal.
However, he can pitch and ipso facto, he has a job. I think I have an idea on how to improve unemployment.
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Wednesday, January 15, 2014
Should the Braves Consider a Kyle Lohse-ish Pickup?
Last season, Kyle Lohse received a qualifying offer from the Cardinals and several teams shied away from signing him. Lohse was not an ace, but a good quality pitcher who can help out a team by being a solid starter. Eventually, on March 25th last year, Lohse finally signed a 3 year, $33M contract with the Brewers with $7M deferred. Whether or not the Brewers waited out the market, Lohse was signed to a deal that appeared pretty reasonable.
This offseason, a pair of pitchers – Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez – remain on the market, waiting to sign with a team as we hit mid-January. We are counting down the days until catchers and pitchers report and these pitchers, both effective last year, can’t find a job. Part of that comes down to a market that is currently waiting on Masahiro Tanaka to either sign with a major league team or stay in Japan, but there is a bigger consideration for major league teams. It comes down to the expected production of the pitcher vs. the qualifying offer compensation. The Braves, for instance, would have to surrender their top pick in June’s draft to sign either pitcher. Should they?
Let’s consider Ervin Santana. After spending the first eight years of his career in Los Angeles with the Angels, Santana was dealt to the Royals last offseason. The pending free agent posted a 3.24 ERA, 3.93 FIP, and 3.0 fWAR. In yet another “win-loss records are stupid” examples, his record in 2013 was 9-10, only slightly better than 9-13 the previous season, but he was a -1.0 fWAR pitcher in 2012. While his 3.93 FIP was the second-best of his career, it was a far cry from his 2008 season, where he posted a 3.30 FIP and 6 fWAR. While he has improved his groundball rate, he is homer prone and really just throws two pitches about 90% of the time (fastball/slider).
Is he worth the Braves first round selection plus a financial commitment comparable to Lohse’s deal? I would say no. Santana is a decent innings-eater. He’s been very durable and just turned 31 so in a three-year deal, you would have him through just his age-33 season. However, would he be better than Gavin Floyd? Doubtful. Even if you are adding depth in case an injury pops up or Floyd struggles to make it back, would Santana provide notable improvement over Alex Wood? Debatable, but at most, the improvement would be minimal and not worth the price.
Most importantly, he is not the ace that many believe the Braves need nor has Santana ever been an ace outside of that one big year in 2008. Ubaldo Jimenez was an ace with the Rockies between 2008-10. In 2010, Jimenez finished third in the NL Cy Young vote with a 40% share behind unanimous winner Roy Halladay. Jimenez went 19-8 that year with a 3.10 FIP, 6.5 fWAR, and 8.69 K/9. He also posted a pair of no-hitters, including one against the Braves in Turner Field on April 17th. His numbers fell the following year that included a trade to the Indians and those numbers flat lined in 2012.
2013 started with much of the same for Jimenez, but he turned it on over the final three months of the season, posting a 2.01 ERA in his final 15 starts with 106 K’s in 94 innings. He limited opposing hitters to just a .296 OBP and averaged 61 as a game score. In four of his final eight starts, he reached double digit strikeouts, including 13 in his final start. To put that into perspective, in the 87 starts before those final eight, Jimenez reached double digit in strikeouts just twice.
Jimenez can be that ace-type pitcher Santana can’t be…but who are you getting? The guy who dominated the AL over 15 starts down the stretch last season or the guy who was okay-to-bad during the previous 80?
Just 29 (30 on January 22nd), Santana changed up things last year. His fastball is no longer the plus pitch it was during his best days with the Rockies so he stopped relying on it and began to use his slider more. He took what was a rarely-used pitch and began to use his splitter a lot more. To put this simply, he’s a different pitcher than he was in 2010. He seemed to deal with the same problems that have hurt Tim Lincecum. Instead of a thrower, Jimenez is a pitcher now and could be a great acquisition for a team this offseason.
Should that be the Braves? If it came at Lohse’s cost…absolutely. But that is unlikely and the Braves can’t afford to offer much more. At 3 years, $33M, Jimenez could be a steal, though there remains a chance he would pitch again like 2012 Jimenez. But if the cost was not prohibitive, I take the chance. At his best, Jimenez is as good as any pitcher.
This offseason, a pair of pitchers – Ervin Santana and Ubaldo Jimenez – remain on the market, waiting to sign with a team as we hit mid-January. We are counting down the days until catchers and pitchers report and these pitchers, both effective last year, can’t find a job. Part of that comes down to a market that is currently waiting on Masahiro Tanaka to either sign with a major league team or stay in Japan, but there is a bigger consideration for major league teams. It comes down to the expected production of the pitcher vs. the qualifying offer compensation. The Braves, for instance, would have to surrender their top pick in June’s draft to sign either pitcher. Should they?
Let’s consider Ervin Santana. After spending the first eight years of his career in Los Angeles with the Angels, Santana was dealt to the Royals last offseason. The pending free agent posted a 3.24 ERA, 3.93 FIP, and 3.0 fWAR. In yet another “win-loss records are stupid” examples, his record in 2013 was 9-10, only slightly better than 9-13 the previous season, but he was a -1.0 fWAR pitcher in 2012. While his 3.93 FIP was the second-best of his career, it was a far cry from his 2008 season, where he posted a 3.30 FIP and 6 fWAR. While he has improved his groundball rate, he is homer prone and really just throws two pitches about 90% of the time (fastball/slider).
Is he worth the Braves first round selection plus a financial commitment comparable to Lohse’s deal? I would say no. Santana is a decent innings-eater. He’s been very durable and just turned 31 so in a three-year deal, you would have him through just his age-33 season. However, would he be better than Gavin Floyd? Doubtful. Even if you are adding depth in case an injury pops up or Floyd struggles to make it back, would Santana provide notable improvement over Alex Wood? Debatable, but at most, the improvement would be minimal and not worth the price.
Most importantly, he is not the ace that many believe the Braves need nor has Santana ever been an ace outside of that one big year in 2008. Ubaldo Jimenez was an ace with the Rockies between 2008-10. In 2010, Jimenez finished third in the NL Cy Young vote with a 40% share behind unanimous winner Roy Halladay. Jimenez went 19-8 that year with a 3.10 FIP, 6.5 fWAR, and 8.69 K/9. He also posted a pair of no-hitters, including one against the Braves in Turner Field on April 17th. His numbers fell the following year that included a trade to the Indians and those numbers flat lined in 2012.
2013 started with much of the same for Jimenez, but he turned it on over the final three months of the season, posting a 2.01 ERA in his final 15 starts with 106 K’s in 94 innings. He limited opposing hitters to just a .296 OBP and averaged 61 as a game score. In four of his final eight starts, he reached double digit strikeouts, including 13 in his final start. To put that into perspective, in the 87 starts before those final eight, Jimenez reached double digit in strikeouts just twice.
Jimenez can be that ace-type pitcher Santana can’t be…but who are you getting? The guy who dominated the AL over 15 starts down the stretch last season or the guy who was okay-to-bad during the previous 80?
Just 29 (30 on January 22nd), Santana changed up things last year. His fastball is no longer the plus pitch it was during his best days with the Rockies so he stopped relying on it and began to use his slider more. He took what was a rarely-used pitch and began to use his splitter a lot more. To put this simply, he’s a different pitcher than he was in 2010. He seemed to deal with the same problems that have hurt Tim Lincecum. Instead of a thrower, Jimenez is a pitcher now and could be a great acquisition for a team this offseason.
Should that be the Braves? If it came at Lohse’s cost…absolutely. But that is unlikely and the Braves can’t afford to offer much more. At 3 years, $33M, Jimenez could be a steal, though there remains a chance he would pitch again like 2012 Jimenez. But if the cost was not prohibitive, I take the chance. At his best, Jimenez is as good as any pitcher.
Tuesday, January 14, 2014
A Look Back: 2011 Draft
A few days ago, I went over the 2012 draft's first ten picks with a few more interesting ones to review how the 2012 players are progressing. Today, let's look at the 2011 draft. The 2011 draft has yet to graduate a player to the majors, though a few have made it to AAA. The draft is known for the Braves selecting an insane amount of college players, including the first ten and 27 of the first 29 picks. That meant a lot of people signed with the organization (their first 19 all signed), but the low ceilings with college picks meant impact talent from the draft was minimal outside of the first eight picks.
Again, after the top ten, I'll add a few additional players from the system that are interesting for whatever reason.
1. Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Florida State University
With the success of Mike Minor, the Braves again tried their luck with the low-ceiling, high-floor left-hander model, grabbing Gilmartin with the 28th overall selection. Immediately, he was given the quick-riser, fourth-or-fifth starter label. However, his success was not as immediate or stark like Minor. After signing late, Minor made one start in the Gulf Coast League before a handful of starts with Rome to close 2011. He followed that up with 27 starts and 157 innings, 4/5's of which occurred at Mississippi, during a 2012 campaign that can be best described as "meh." 6.4 K/9 between Mississippi and Gwinnett with a 2.2 BB/9. Too many homers (0.9 HR/9) and an uninspiring 1.22 WHIP put a limit on any excitement for the season. Injuries severly derailed his 2013 season, but when he pitched for Gwinnett, the results were miserable. After the season, the Braves traded Gilmartin to the Twins for Ryan Doumit, a solid trade for the Braves. Was he a waste of a first round pick? Well, he brought in a capable major leaguer.
2. Nick Ahmed, SS, University of Connecticut
Drafted out of the Big Easy, Ahmed was a speedy defender who quickly made it to Lynchburg after 2012. Expected to provide solid defense at a premium position, Ahmed was blocked by the progression of Andrelton Simmons. After his 2012 season that saw him slash .269/.337/.391 with the Hillcats with 40 steals, Ahmed was involved in the trade that brought Justin Upton and Chris Johnson over from the Diamondbacks. In his first season in the Arizona organization, Ahmed posted a .613 OPS at AA-Mobile.
3. Kyle Kubitza, 3B, Texas State University
Keeping with the college theme, the Braves took Kubitza in the third round. A teammate of 2012 30th rounder Casey Kalenkosky, Kubitzka was a guy with developing power, solid on-base skills, and expected to be a good defender. So far, so good. After a good debut run in Danville after signing, Kubitza struggled with his average at Rome during 2012, but still posted a .349 OBP. Last season, he came back into his own with the Hillcats, slashing .260/.380/.434. He strikes out a ton (132 in 527 PA last season), but he also walks a lot and added 46 extra-base hits, including a dozen homers. He might want to give up trying to steal (8 SB, 16 CS), but Kubitza could be knocking on the door as soon as 2015 with a good year this season. All the Braves are waiting on is power and maybe a little more contact.
4. J.R. Graham, RHP, Santa Clara University
In Graham, the Braves have a potential star. He's undersized and has drawn comparisons to Roy Oswalt so that can help fans salivate. He possesses a tremendous fastball that has excellent sink with a plus slider and an improving change-up. If that last pitch becomes a solid third pitch, Graham could be a starter that gets the call in a playoff game. If it doesn't, his profile could carry him into important innings out of the pen. Graham reached 93rd in the Baseball America Top 100 before 2013 on the heels of a 2012 season that saw him go 12-2, 2.80 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.7 K/9. Expectations were high, but shoulder issues limited him to just 35.2 ING. Provided he is healthy for camp, he could sneak his way onto the team as a reliever. More likely, he heads to the minors to start for Gwinnett. See his Random Prospect of the Day profile from last July.
5. Nick DeSantiago, C, Blinn College (JC)
A year before selecting two catchers in the top ten, the Braves took DeSantiago with the 176 overall pick. DeSanitago was expected to hit a little, but was considered raw behind the plate. Well, he may still be raw, but he has yet to hit and injuries have limited him since signing. In 107 career games, 70 with Danville and the rest with Rome, DeSantiago has just .209 with a .599 OPS. He was limited to just 13 games last season. He takes walks, but has just 22 extra-base hits in 422 PA and they are all doubles. Probably will get another shot at Rome this season.
6. Mark Lamm, RHP, Vanderbilt University
A reliever in the SEC, Lamm also underwent Tommy John surgery and was a fifth-year senior by the time the Braves got him. He has been a fast riser, though control issues have limited his effectiveness. Last year, he split duties between Mississippi and Gwinnett, walking 4.8 per nine innings to go with his 9.3 K/9. Like many Braves relievers, Lamm has the power profile, but he will only get to the next step with improved control.
7. Cody Martin, RHP, Gonzaga University
A 20th rounder that the Twins didn't sign after 2010, Martin was a reliever for the Zags. After a year out of the pen where he dominated at both Danville and Rome, Martin made the move to the rotation in 2012 and was very successful for the Hillcats with ratios like 1.18 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 10.3 K/9 in 107.1 innings. He stuck with the rotation for 2013 and was nearly knocking on the door for a major league promotion by the end of the season. After 16 games (11 starts) with Mississippi, Martin finished the year with Gwinnett and struck out 66 in 69.1 ING, though his control was much worse (4 BB/9) than it was at Lynchburg the previous season. Martin is a longshot to compete in camp and will likely return to Gwinnett. Could be a sleeper.
8. Tommy La Stella, 2B, Coastal Carolina University
The object of affection for many Braves fans, La Stella has hit everywhere, but two questions have followed him. Can he stay healthy after 90 games during 2012 and 88 last season? Too early to say as freak injuries can skew the results here. The other question also remains unanswered and apparently was the reason that Phillip Gosselin was promoted to the majors last season. Can La Stella play enough defense? The New Jersey native OPS'd .896 in 81 games at Mississippi with a ridiculous .422 OBP, helped by a .343 AVG and 37/34 BB/K rate. He has a shot - a GREAT shot - to grab a major league spot in camp and the Braves could use another left-hand bat in the lineup. However, unless he can play good enough defense, it is unlikely that he will be a long-term option for the Braves.
9. Chase Larsson, OF, Cameron University
Well, that didn't last long. A former 18th rounder out of Canada for the Royals, Larsson went to school and had great power. He posted a .799 OPS with Danville in 2011. The hope was that Larsson could build on his eight homers for Danville and become a good corner outfield prospect. However, his year in 2012 was limited by injuries and by mid-August, he was cut after just over a year in the system. I don't know if maturity was a reason, but no one came calling and Larsson spent last season struggling for a pair of independent teams.
10. Logan Robbins, SS, Western Kentucky University
Another of the super fielding shortstops with the question "will he ever hit?" tag firmly attached, Robbins played 36 games in the Gulf Coast League after signing and OPS'd a serviceable .729 with 12 steals. In 2012, Robbins played briefly for the Rome Braves because of injury and looked pretty awful before being demoted to Danville. After their season began, he played center field for the D-Braves and OPs'd a miserable .593. Rather than wait on the toolsy athlete, the Braves released him just before Christmas in 2012. He didn't appear to catch on anywhere last year.
Other interesting picks...
-11th rounder Seth Moranda was the first high school selection by the Braves and has not made it out of rookie ball just yet. Still, he on-based .341 for Danville last year. Still looking for a position, he settled into second last season and finally 21, he will get a shot to climb the ladder this season.
-12th rounder Matt Chaffee out of Arizona University has a career 11.0 K/9, but when he does get hit, results are ugly. 14th rounder John Cornely from Wofford College spent the fall in Arizona after a good year wth the Hillcats. Ancient for his level(24 during 2013), Cornely has a career 13.5 K/9 to go wth a 5.1 BB/9.
-17th rounder Gus Schlosser has been very good at every stop so far and will head to Gwinnett next season. He throws side arm and might be best suited for a move to the pen soon as a guy who kills rallys by inducing groundball double plays.
-Son of new Gwinnett manager Brian Snitker, 19th rounder Troy Snitker didn't last long in the system before being traded last spring to the Pirates. He was released there and played briefly with the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs (Atlantic League).
-A 25th round selection, OF Will Skinner belted 16 homeruns for the Hillcats last season, good for second on the team, and slugged .483. He also walked eleven times all season and on-based .252.
-2012 Random Prospect of the Day Matt Talley, who was picked in the 28th round during the 2011 draft, appears to be out of baseball after my profile piece got him released (maybe I'm overestimated the impact of the Walk-Off Walk bump).
-37th rounder Ryne Harper has stuck with the organization while many drafted after Skinner either never signed or were already released. He pitched in Mississippi last year with a 1.79 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9 in 41 games out of the pen. He has great control (4.11 career K/BB) and will get a shot to prove himself again with Gwinnett.
Again, after the top ten, I'll add a few additional players from the system that are interesting for whatever reason.
1. Sean Gilmartin, LHP, Florida State University
With the success of Mike Minor, the Braves again tried their luck with the low-ceiling, high-floor left-hander model, grabbing Gilmartin with the 28th overall selection. Immediately, he was given the quick-riser, fourth-or-fifth starter label. However, his success was not as immediate or stark like Minor. After signing late, Minor made one start in the Gulf Coast League before a handful of starts with Rome to close 2011. He followed that up with 27 starts and 157 innings, 4/5's of which occurred at Mississippi, during a 2012 campaign that can be best described as "meh." 6.4 K/9 between Mississippi and Gwinnett with a 2.2 BB/9. Too many homers (0.9 HR/9) and an uninspiring 1.22 WHIP put a limit on any excitement for the season. Injuries severly derailed his 2013 season, but when he pitched for Gwinnett, the results were miserable. After the season, the Braves traded Gilmartin to the Twins for Ryan Doumit, a solid trade for the Braves. Was he a waste of a first round pick? Well, he brought in a capable major leaguer.
2. Nick Ahmed, SS, University of Connecticut
Drafted out of the Big Easy, Ahmed was a speedy defender who quickly made it to Lynchburg after 2012. Expected to provide solid defense at a premium position, Ahmed was blocked by the progression of Andrelton Simmons. After his 2012 season that saw him slash .269/.337/.391 with the Hillcats with 40 steals, Ahmed was involved in the trade that brought Justin Upton and Chris Johnson over from the Diamondbacks. In his first season in the Arizona organization, Ahmed posted a .613 OPS at AA-Mobile.
3. Kyle Kubitza, 3B, Texas State University
Keeping with the college theme, the Braves took Kubitza in the third round. A teammate of 2012 30th rounder Casey Kalenkosky, Kubitzka was a guy with developing power, solid on-base skills, and expected to be a good defender. So far, so good. After a good debut run in Danville after signing, Kubitza struggled with his average at Rome during 2012, but still posted a .349 OBP. Last season, he came back into his own with the Hillcats, slashing .260/.380/.434. He strikes out a ton (132 in 527 PA last season), but he also walks a lot and added 46 extra-base hits, including a dozen homers. He might want to give up trying to steal (8 SB, 16 CS), but Kubitza could be knocking on the door as soon as 2015 with a good year this season. All the Braves are waiting on is power and maybe a little more contact.
4. J.R. Graham, RHP, Santa Clara University
In Graham, the Braves have a potential star. He's undersized and has drawn comparisons to Roy Oswalt so that can help fans salivate. He possesses a tremendous fastball that has excellent sink with a plus slider and an improving change-up. If that last pitch becomes a solid third pitch, Graham could be a starter that gets the call in a playoff game. If it doesn't, his profile could carry him into important innings out of the pen. Graham reached 93rd in the Baseball America Top 100 before 2013 on the heels of a 2012 season that saw him go 12-2, 2.80 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 6.7 K/9. Expectations were high, but shoulder issues limited him to just 35.2 ING. Provided he is healthy for camp, he could sneak his way onto the team as a reliever. More likely, he heads to the minors to start for Gwinnett. See his Random Prospect of the Day profile from last July.
5. Nick DeSantiago, C, Blinn College (JC)
A year before selecting two catchers in the top ten, the Braves took DeSantiago with the 176 overall pick. DeSanitago was expected to hit a little, but was considered raw behind the plate. Well, he may still be raw, but he has yet to hit and injuries have limited him since signing. In 107 career games, 70 with Danville and the rest with Rome, DeSantiago has just .209 with a .599 OPS. He was limited to just 13 games last season. He takes walks, but has just 22 extra-base hits in 422 PA and they are all doubles. Probably will get another shot at Rome this season.
6. Mark Lamm, RHP, Vanderbilt University
A reliever in the SEC, Lamm also underwent Tommy John surgery and was a fifth-year senior by the time the Braves got him. He has been a fast riser, though control issues have limited his effectiveness. Last year, he split duties between Mississippi and Gwinnett, walking 4.8 per nine innings to go with his 9.3 K/9. Like many Braves relievers, Lamm has the power profile, but he will only get to the next step with improved control.
7. Cody Martin, RHP, Gonzaga University
A 20th rounder that the Twins didn't sign after 2010, Martin was a reliever for the Zags. After a year out of the pen where he dominated at both Danville and Rome, Martin made the move to the rotation in 2012 and was very successful for the Hillcats with ratios like 1.18 WHIP, 0.6 HR/9, 2.9 BB/9, and 10.3 K/9 in 107.1 innings. He stuck with the rotation for 2013 and was nearly knocking on the door for a major league promotion by the end of the season. After 16 games (11 starts) with Mississippi, Martin finished the year with Gwinnett and struck out 66 in 69.1 ING, though his control was much worse (4 BB/9) than it was at Lynchburg the previous season. Martin is a longshot to compete in camp and will likely return to Gwinnett. Could be a sleeper.
8. Tommy La Stella, 2B, Coastal Carolina University
The object of affection for many Braves fans, La Stella has hit everywhere, but two questions have followed him. Can he stay healthy after 90 games during 2012 and 88 last season? Too early to say as freak injuries can skew the results here. The other question also remains unanswered and apparently was the reason that Phillip Gosselin was promoted to the majors last season. Can La Stella play enough defense? The New Jersey native OPS'd .896 in 81 games at Mississippi with a ridiculous .422 OBP, helped by a .343 AVG and 37/34 BB/K rate. He has a shot - a GREAT shot - to grab a major league spot in camp and the Braves could use another left-hand bat in the lineup. However, unless he can play good enough defense, it is unlikely that he will be a long-term option for the Braves.
9. Chase Larsson, OF, Cameron University
Well, that didn't last long. A former 18th rounder out of Canada for the Royals, Larsson went to school and had great power. He posted a .799 OPS with Danville in 2011. The hope was that Larsson could build on his eight homers for Danville and become a good corner outfield prospect. However, his year in 2012 was limited by injuries and by mid-August, he was cut after just over a year in the system. I don't know if maturity was a reason, but no one came calling and Larsson spent last season struggling for a pair of independent teams.
10. Logan Robbins, SS, Western Kentucky University
Another of the super fielding shortstops with the question "will he ever hit?" tag firmly attached, Robbins played 36 games in the Gulf Coast League after signing and OPS'd a serviceable .729 with 12 steals. In 2012, Robbins played briefly for the Rome Braves because of injury and looked pretty awful before being demoted to Danville. After their season began, he played center field for the D-Braves and OPs'd a miserable .593. Rather than wait on the toolsy athlete, the Braves released him just before Christmas in 2012. He didn't appear to catch on anywhere last year.
Other interesting picks...
-11th rounder Seth Moranda was the first high school selection by the Braves and has not made it out of rookie ball just yet. Still, he on-based .341 for Danville last year. Still looking for a position, he settled into second last season and finally 21, he will get a shot to climb the ladder this season.
-12th rounder Matt Chaffee out of Arizona University has a career 11.0 K/9, but when he does get hit, results are ugly. 14th rounder John Cornely from Wofford College spent the fall in Arizona after a good year wth the Hillcats. Ancient for his level(24 during 2013), Cornely has a career 13.5 K/9 to go wth a 5.1 BB/9.
-17th rounder Gus Schlosser has been very good at every stop so far and will head to Gwinnett next season. He throws side arm and might be best suited for a move to the pen soon as a guy who kills rallys by inducing groundball double plays.
-Son of new Gwinnett manager Brian Snitker, 19th rounder Troy Snitker didn't last long in the system before being traded last spring to the Pirates. He was released there and played briefly with the Southern Maryland Blue Crabs (Atlantic League).
-A 25th round selection, OF Will Skinner belted 16 homeruns for the Hillcats last season, good for second on the team, and slugged .483. He also walked eleven times all season and on-based .252.
-2012 Random Prospect of the Day Matt Talley, who was picked in the 28th round during the 2011 draft, appears to be out of baseball after my profile piece got him released (maybe I'm overestimated the impact of the Walk-Off Walk bump).
-37th rounder Ryne Harper has stuck with the organization while many drafted after Skinner either never signed or were already released. He pitched in Mississippi last year with a 1.79 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, and 8.8 K/9 in 41 games out of the pen. He has great control (4.11 career K/BB) and will get a shot to prove himself again with Gwinnett.
Monday, January 13, 2014
Google Alert alerted me to Ignorance
Every day, I get a Google Alert about the Braves. Often, the articles are not noteworthy and are made up of analysis of a recent acquisition, or during the season, of a recent game. This offseason has seen a lot of articles about the pending move to Cobb County in 2017 and most recently, articles talking about how awesome Greg Maddux was or in Tom Glavine’s case, how frustrating #47 made it on hitters.
But today, two articles garnered my attention. While most recent articles about Maddux tout his accomplishments, the Denver Post’s Joan Niesen focuses on his “flops.” I am all for more women in sports journalism, but this kind of analysis makes her look like Woody Page writing under a female pen name.
In an article apparently about Peyton Manning’s postseason failures, Niesen touches on former Nuggets coach George Karl, whose teams never missed the playoffs but only once got past the first round. I don’t know a lot about the NBA, but the Nuggets never seemed like a contender to the crown. In a sport where 16 teams go to the playoffs, a good team that keeps its core together should be able to make trips to the playoffs. But like I said, I don’t follow the NBA that closely. Niesen next touches on Alex Rodriguez (again, the article is supposedly about Peyton Manning). After other famous “chokers in sports,” Niesen finally comes up with what she considers a tremendous comparison for Manning – Greg Maddux.
“Maddux, arguably one of the greatest pitchers of all time, was voted into Cooperstown this past week.” Wait, arguably? “His Atlanta Braves teams made the playoffs over and over and over again, but what we forget — Manning already is jealous — is that he won one only World Series.” Who forgets that? Certainly not the litany of fans of other teams. And what do you mean "he won only one World Series?" This isn't tennis. The team either wins or loses. “Like Manning, Maddux was consistently lights-out in the regular season. He too was dorkily terrifying, winning an average of 18.3 games from 1992 to 2000, with his ERA hovering from 1.56 to 3.57. Maddux, like Manning, was likeable, but intense, seeming as smart as he was talented — and once the calendar turned to October, things just weren't quite the same. ERAs ticked upward, win counts down, and seasons petered out.”
I will ignore for the time being that win-loss record and ERA are pretty awful judgments of a player. Career ERA for Maddux – 3.16. Postseason ERA – 3.27. Yes, his win-loss record looks miserable (11-14), but it ignores several instances where Maddux posted great numbers. He took a 3-2 loss in Game 6 of the 1996 World Series despite giving up just three runs in 7.2 ING. Those three runs were helped by a RBI triple by Joe Girardi…to center field. Maddux took the loss the following year in Game 5 of the NLCS despite giving up two runs in seven innings. He gave up two runs in five innings during Game Three of the NLCS, taking the loss. Oh, he came back two days later and got a save. He gave up two runs in seven innings during Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS, but got a no-decision. Two runs in the 2001 NLCS Game One while going seven innings, but he gets a loss. In the 2003 NLDS against the Cubs in Game Three, he surrendered two runs and took the loss.
Was Maddux as good in the postseason as he was during the regular season? It appears not on the surface, but he still pitched rather well. He gave his team a chance to win in many of these games, but the offense and defense often did not come to his assistance. To call Maddux a choker is to follow the narrative of the weak-minded. It does not pass the test of true logic.
Elsewhere, Alex Chitty is upset to hear any comparison that includes both Bobby Cox and Joe Torre. The comparison is not fair to Torre, Chitty argues, because the Yankees won the World Series a few times. The Braves didn’t. And that’s all that matters.
Here’s the problem with that argument. Torre coached the Mets for five years and they never won the series. Coached the Braves three years…they never won it all. Was with the Cards for four full season and two other partial years…they never even got to the playoffs. So, suddenly, Torre was a genius in New York? Why, for seven years, despite not winning fewer than 94 times, did the Yankees not win a World Series from 2001-07. This argument loses its luster very quickly. In three years with the Dodgers, Los Angeles never won a title.
But what the Yankees did have was money. They finished second in payroll ($5M more than ATL) during 1996. Not a big difference. They led the league in 1997 in payroll ($10M more than ATL). In 1998, when the Yankees got their second title, the difference between the two was $5M as the Yankees finished second in payroll. The following season, 1999, when the Braves and Yankees once again met in the series, the Yankees led baseball in payroll…$13M more than the Braves. The Yankees would again lead baseball in payroll during their final championship season, 2000, $9M more than the Braves.
Why did the Yankees not win anymore? Their core was getting older. So was the Braves, but they didn’t have the extra cash to supplement the rest of their squad. Nevertheless, by 2004, the Yankees doubled the Braves in payroll, but they weren’t getting much deeper into the playoffs. Torre’s mojo was either lost or his players weren’t as good as they once were (despite being well-compensated).
I’m not going to argue that Cox was better than Torre…God knows I have my issues with Cox. However, I will give Cox credit when he deserves it. I saw Torre more than a few times not fight for his players. Especially A-Rod. Now, A-Rod is a jackass, but his manager should be out there fighting for him. Cox would have hated A-Rod, but he would have fought for his guy. Cox got the most out of his players. A blank check gave Torre the most.
That's not to take away from Torre, who was a fine manager. He never struck me as a genius, but he was still rather good at his job and at the end of the day, Torre has three more rings than Cox. Does that make him the better manager? If that’s all that matters to you, I guess it does. To me, I prefer context as it tells a story. The story does not provide for any consensus on who was better. But to argue that the comparison between the two is unfair to Torre is ignorant.
But today, two articles garnered my attention. While most recent articles about Maddux tout his accomplishments, the Denver Post’s Joan Niesen focuses on his “flops.” I am all for more women in sports journalism, but this kind of analysis makes her look like Woody Page writing under a female pen name.
In an article apparently about Peyton Manning’s postseason failures, Niesen touches on former Nuggets coach George Karl, whose teams never missed the playoffs but only once got past the first round. I don’t know a lot about the NBA, but the Nuggets never seemed like a contender to the crown. In a sport where 16 teams go to the playoffs, a good team that keeps its core together should be able to make trips to the playoffs. But like I said, I don’t follow the NBA that closely. Niesen next touches on Alex Rodriguez (again, the article is supposedly about Peyton Manning). After other famous “chokers in sports,” Niesen finally comes up with what she considers a tremendous comparison for Manning – Greg Maddux.
“Maddux, arguably one of the greatest pitchers of all time, was voted into Cooperstown this past week.” Wait, arguably? “His Atlanta Braves teams made the playoffs over and over and over again, but what we forget — Manning already is jealous — is that he won one only World Series.” Who forgets that? Certainly not the litany of fans of other teams. And what do you mean "he won only one World Series?" This isn't tennis. The team either wins or loses. “Like Manning, Maddux was consistently lights-out in the regular season. He too was dorkily terrifying, winning an average of 18.3 games from 1992 to 2000, with his ERA hovering from 1.56 to 3.57. Maddux, like Manning, was likeable, but intense, seeming as smart as he was talented — and once the calendar turned to October, things just weren't quite the same. ERAs ticked upward, win counts down, and seasons petered out.”
I will ignore for the time being that win-loss record and ERA are pretty awful judgments of a player. Career ERA for Maddux – 3.16. Postseason ERA – 3.27. Yes, his win-loss record looks miserable (11-14), but it ignores several instances where Maddux posted great numbers. He took a 3-2 loss in Game 6 of the 1996 World Series despite giving up just three runs in 7.2 ING. Those three runs were helped by a RBI triple by Joe Girardi…to center field. Maddux took the loss the following year in Game 5 of the NLCS despite giving up two runs in seven innings. He gave up two runs in five innings during Game Three of the NLCS, taking the loss. Oh, he came back two days later and got a save. He gave up two runs in seven innings during Game 5 of the 1999 NLCS, but got a no-decision. Two runs in the 2001 NLCS Game One while going seven innings, but he gets a loss. In the 2003 NLDS against the Cubs in Game Three, he surrendered two runs and took the loss.
Was Maddux as good in the postseason as he was during the regular season? It appears not on the surface, but he still pitched rather well. He gave his team a chance to win in many of these games, but the offense and defense often did not come to his assistance. To call Maddux a choker is to follow the narrative of the weak-minded. It does not pass the test of true logic.
Elsewhere, Alex Chitty is upset to hear any comparison that includes both Bobby Cox and Joe Torre. The comparison is not fair to Torre, Chitty argues, because the Yankees won the World Series a few times. The Braves didn’t. And that’s all that matters.
Here’s the problem with that argument. Torre coached the Mets for five years and they never won the series. Coached the Braves three years…they never won it all. Was with the Cards for four full season and two other partial years…they never even got to the playoffs. So, suddenly, Torre was a genius in New York? Why, for seven years, despite not winning fewer than 94 times, did the Yankees not win a World Series from 2001-07. This argument loses its luster very quickly. In three years with the Dodgers, Los Angeles never won a title.
But what the Yankees did have was money. They finished second in payroll ($5M more than ATL) during 1996. Not a big difference. They led the league in 1997 in payroll ($10M more than ATL). In 1998, when the Yankees got their second title, the difference between the two was $5M as the Yankees finished second in payroll. The following season, 1999, when the Braves and Yankees once again met in the series, the Yankees led baseball in payroll…$13M more than the Braves. The Yankees would again lead baseball in payroll during their final championship season, 2000, $9M more than the Braves.
Why did the Yankees not win anymore? Their core was getting older. So was the Braves, but they didn’t have the extra cash to supplement the rest of their squad. Nevertheless, by 2004, the Yankees doubled the Braves in payroll, but they weren’t getting much deeper into the playoffs. Torre’s mojo was either lost or his players weren’t as good as they once were (despite being well-compensated).
I’m not going to argue that Cox was better than Torre…God knows I have my issues with Cox. However, I will give Cox credit when he deserves it. I saw Torre more than a few times not fight for his players. Especially A-Rod. Now, A-Rod is a jackass, but his manager should be out there fighting for him. Cox would have hated A-Rod, but he would have fought for his guy. Cox got the most out of his players. A blank check gave Torre the most.
That's not to take away from Torre, who was a fine manager. He never struck me as a genius, but he was still rather good at his job and at the end of the day, Torre has three more rings than Cox. Does that make him the better manager? If that’s all that matters to you, I guess it does. To me, I prefer context as it tells a story. The story does not provide for any consensus on who was better. But to argue that the comparison between the two is unfair to Torre is ignorant.
Sunday, January 12, 2014
MLB Right Now Pisses Off Braves Fans Right Now
MLB Network is making their way through their positional rankings. The series, titled Top 10 Right Now, debuted their shortstop rankings Friday night and two former Braves made the list along with Atlanta's current shortstop. However, where Andrelton Simmons was ranked frustrated a lot of Braves fans. The Shredder, a computer-based system, ranked Simmons as the 8th best shortstop in the game right now. Was that fair? Do the Braves fans have a legitimate beef?
Defensively, Simmons easily wins. His 31.6 UZR last season is 12.4 points higher than the second-best, Alcides Escobar. Simmons also led all players with a 5.4 dWAR, according to baseball-reference. I typically don't use dWAR because I put more value in UZR, but nevertheless, that's pretty impressive considering Elvis Andrus was second among shortstops at 2.0. And as far DRS goes...there's Simmons with 41 and two other players with 12. I will put it this way: Among shortstops, Simmons's 41 DRS is better than the next three combined.
Let's look at total value. Simmons ranked third among all shortstops with 4.7 fWAR. Simmons ranked even higher at baseball-reference with a 6.8, best among shortstops, and 8th best in the game. Among shortstops, Hanley Ramirez ranked second with 5.4. Simba's year was so respected that he finished 14th with 14 points in the MVP balloting. Only Ramired had more votes in the NL among shortstops.
So, based on just last season, Simmons ranks very high.
However, here is where I will give some value to whatever asinine formula the Shredder actually uses. Simmons has 206 games of experience with a career .704 OPS. Simmons slashed his way to just .248/.296/.396, which makes his WAR numbers so much more impressive because Simmons had an inept offensive season. And it appears that lack of experience combined with his offensive issues was what hurt him according to the Shredder. Jean Segura has a comparable amount of playing time, but he posted a solid offensive season. Andrus had a comparable OPS (less power, better on-base, more speed), but Andrus also has solid defense and a lot of experience.
Do I agree with the reasoning? Well, it's difficult to disagree. Now, if you want to be a homer, screw logic...he's top three. I'd say that's a little too far. At least, right now. Another solid season and some offensive improvement, no problem with that argument. Still, I'd have a tough time putting Simmons in the top five RIGHT NOW. I'll concede that he might be there as soon as midseason this upcoming season, but he's not there yet.
Defensively, Simmons easily wins. His 31.6 UZR last season is 12.4 points higher than the second-best, Alcides Escobar. Simmons also led all players with a 5.4 dWAR, according to baseball-reference. I typically don't use dWAR because I put more value in UZR, but nevertheless, that's pretty impressive considering Elvis Andrus was second among shortstops at 2.0. And as far DRS goes...there's Simmons with 41 and two other players with 12. I will put it this way: Among shortstops, Simmons's 41 DRS is better than the next three combined.
Let's look at total value. Simmons ranked third among all shortstops with 4.7 fWAR. Simmons ranked even higher at baseball-reference with a 6.8, best among shortstops, and 8th best in the game. Among shortstops, Hanley Ramirez ranked second with 5.4. Simba's year was so respected that he finished 14th with 14 points in the MVP balloting. Only Ramired had more votes in the NL among shortstops.
So, based on just last season, Simmons ranks very high.
However, here is where I will give some value to whatever asinine formula the Shredder actually uses. Simmons has 206 games of experience with a career .704 OPS. Simmons slashed his way to just .248/.296/.396, which makes his WAR numbers so much more impressive because Simmons had an inept offensive season. And it appears that lack of experience combined with his offensive issues was what hurt him according to the Shredder. Jean Segura has a comparable amount of playing time, but he posted a solid offensive season. Andrus had a comparable OPS (less power, better on-base, more speed), but Andrus also has solid defense and a lot of experience.
Do I agree with the reasoning? Well, it's difficult to disagree. Now, if you want to be a homer, screw logic...he's top three. I'd say that's a little too far. At least, right now. Another solid season and some offensive improvement, no problem with that argument. Still, I'd have a tough time putting Simmons in the top five RIGHT NOW. I'll concede that he might be there as soon as midseason this upcoming season, but he's not there yet.
Saturday, January 11, 2014
A Look Back: 2012 Draft
We still have a few months before the season begins so in efforts to pass the time, let's look back at some recent drafts. Rather than start with 2013, let's go back a year to 2012 in efforts to get some information on these players. I will go over the top ten picks and add in some interesting players beyond the top ten.
1. Lucas Sims, RHP, Brookwood High School (Snellville, Georgia)
Two selections after Michael Wacha joined the Cardinals, the Braves took the young Sims. A few years ago, the Braves made news by mining their home state better than any other team. It seemed like the majority of big time amateur baseball players from Georgia were drafted and came into their own in the Braves system. Atlanta has moved on from that OCD need to keep their players home, but went retro to grab Sims in the first round.
Sims started 2012 in the Gulf Coast League, but quickly made it to Danville, which is pretty impressive for an 18 year-old facing college players. After getting his feet wet in rookie ball, Sims got the call to play in Rome last season and was superb. He struck out 134 in 116.2 ING while giving up just three homers and 46 walks. His fastball can touch north of 95 mph and he throws both a plus slider and slow curveball. I've read that he's working on his changeup. The Braves think enough of him to be deamed untouchable in trade talks. Sims doesn't turn 20 until May 10th and will likely anchor the Lynchburg Hillcats rotation with the Braves going slow and deliberate with him.
2. Alex Wood, LHP, University of Georgia
While expectations were high for Wood to rise through the minors quickly, it seemed a bit much to expect him to wear an Atlanta uniform less than a year after being selected by the Braves. Wood played an irreplaceable role for the Braves in 2013, both as a starter and a reliever. He appeared in 31 games between a pair of stints with Atlanta, logging 77.2 innings and even got postseason experience. Wood started eleven games and while his control was not pin point (3.1 BB/9), he struck out 77 and gave up just three homers. A lot has been made of his funky delivery and whether it will cause problems for him down the line. That's still up for debate, but what we do know is that Wood has shown impressive ability incredibly early in his career. A candidate for the fifth starting gig in camp, Wood will likely be in the majors if healthy regardless if he wins the battle to be the fifth starter.
3. Bryan De La Rosa, C, Olymphic Heights High School (Boca Raton, FL)
Over the last couple of years, the Braves have used high selections on catchers. De La Rosa, picked with the 116th overall selection, struggled badly after signing, OPSing just .415 in 29 games in the Gulf Coast League. He improved last year, hitting .261/.328/.306 last season while sharing the catcher duties with Danville. The native of Puerto Rico turns 20 in March and was considered one of the top catchers in the 2012 draft so it wasn't much of a reach, though at 5'8", he is undersized. Defensively, there are few questions. Can he hit? He might get a shot at Rome to try that.
4. Justin Black, OF, Billings West High School (Billings, MT)
Black was a surprise pick in 2012. Billings West doesn't have a baseball team and Black played American Legion ball. Black was a raw talent who the Braves were able to convince to give up a committment to Nebraska so that he would sign. He apparently has tremendous speed and power, but so far, he has not been able to show much of it, hitting .161 in 94 games split at both rookie stops. He has just eight steals to his name, but has been caught seven times. The Braves will be patient with Black because they invested a good deal in him. He might return to Danville again next season.
5. Blake Brown, OF, University of Missouri
A 48th round pick by the Pirates in 2009, Brown signed with Atlanta after getting selected in 2012. After signing, he showed some good on-base skills (.201/.313/.313) to go with a lack of hits. He also stole ten bases out of 14 attempts while with the D-Braves. Brown opened 2013 with the Rome Braves, but struggled to the tune of a .565 OPS. He finished up with Danville and showed little improvement. Before being drafted, Brown was considered a guy who had a strong tool set that if he began to utilize, he would be a solid player. He has yet to begin that, but will be back at Rome this season.
6. Josh Elander, C/OF, Texas Christian University
The Braves were likely very happy to get Elander in the sixth round because many graded him higher than that. Elander was fairly new to catcher and while his bat played best at catcher, there were concerns if he could stay there. After signing, Elander played with Danville and got on base a lot (.366 OBP) to help propel him to an .805 OPS. He added 12 extra-base hits (4 HR) in 145 PA and nearly walked as much as he struck out. He opened 2013 with the Rome Braves and rocketed his way to a wonderful first half in which he slashed .318/.381/.536 with 36 EBH (11 HR). However, unlike 2012 where he stayed behind the plate, he moved to the outfield, playing entirely in left (with the occasional DH assignment). Elander finished the year in Lynchburg and while his numbers were not as sexy, he did on-base .345 in 61 games. I could see Elander starting 2014 in Mississippi. Again, had he remained behind the plate, he would be a fairly big prospect right now. As a LF, he needs to explode offensively. Could be a sleeper.
7. David Starn, LHP, Kent State University
In recent drafts, the Braves have focused on college stars early-and-often and Starn was another example of that approach. A leader of the KSU rotation, Starn didn't sign until July and immediately joined the Rome Braves. His numbers were nothing to get excited about, especially the 20 walks in 34.1 ING. He was expected to get a second crack at the Rome rotation with fellow 2012 draftee Lucas Sims in 2013, but back troubles kept him out. He never got healthy and missed the entire year. Starn was a former walk-on so he has experience being a long-shot. He was known for control with Jamie Moyer comparisions. Could be more like Trey Hodges, though.
8. David Peterson, RHP, College of Charleston
Peterson was selected twice in the 40 range of the draft before getting into the top ten for the 2012 draft. A college closer with a mid 90's fastball, the only question was whether or not he could command his stuff. Atlanta has had some real success with college closers recently and Peterson got off to a good start once he signed, pitching for Rome in 2012 with 20 games and 8 saves. He K'd 23 in his 28 innings and walked 11. The Braves decided to switch him to the rotation for 2013 and he lasted a month for the Hillcats rotation before shoulder injuries ended his season. He was looking just as good as a starter, though he was on a pitch limit. Not sure if he will be set for next season, but likely could see him returning to Lynchburg.
9. Steven Schils, RHP, Florida Tech
Another college closer, Schils was a reach in the ninth round and wasn't considered a big draft prospect. As such, he has spent the last two summers struggling badly in the Gul Coast League. He appeared in three games during the 2012 season after signing and walked nine of the 14 he faced. He spent the rest of the season on the injury list. Last year, he appeared in 17 games, but walked 15 in 18 innings with 19 K's. Not a promising start to his career.
10. Mike Dodig, 3B, Columbia-Greene Community College (Hudson, NY)
Another reach, Dodig has also struggled through two years. Expected to have plus power, Dodig has hit .176 in 63 professional games with all but 14 of those games coming in the Gulf Coast League. Likely going to get another season at rookie-ball, Dodig is 20 years-old and has a big frame at 6'4" with a left-handed bat, but Joe Leonard has a similar frame and has 21 homers in over 1500 PA in the minors (and couldn't even luck into a homer with Gwinnett last season).
Some other interesting picks...
-A trio of Random Prospect of the Day players were part of the 2012 draft. 15th rounder RHP Alex Wilson (see his RPOD profile) out of Wofford College has been decent enough at both Danville and Rome and should get a shot with Lynchburg this year to see if he can get moving quicker. 18th rounder 2B Ross Heffely (see his RPOD profile) out of Western Carolina followed up a nice 2012 season (.757 OPS with Rome) by struggling through a first half with Lynchburg and an even worse second half in Rome. 30th rounder 1B Casey Kalenkosky (see his RPOD profile) out of Texas State posted a .722 OPS with Rome last year. He saw a lot of action at catcher while pitching a third of an inning.
-13th rounder Nate Hyatt out of Appalachain State was used a lot as the closer in Lynchburg last year and saved 12 games while completing 33 of the 43 games he got into. 10.6 K/9 is sweet, but a 5.8 BB/9 takes away from it. His walk rate was a lot better in 2012, though.
-22nd rounder Shae Simmons, who refined his skills at Southeast Missouri State, might be the second player from the 2012 draft to get to the majors. Last season, after a 1.49 ERA and 14 K/9 rate in 39 games with Rome (including 24 saves), Simmons skipped Lynchburg and went to Mississippi for the final month, where he held his own. In 66 games in the minors over two seasons, he has 118 K's in 78 ING (13.6 K/9) with a 4.4 BB/9. He has not given up a professional homerun. Simmons is a super longshot to get involved in the bullpen battle for the big league team, but he could make his debut before 2014 is over.
-31st-round selection Matt Kimbrel Southern Polytechnic State University has not looked so good through two seasons in rookie ball. At least his brother was happy with the selection.
1. Lucas Sims, RHP, Brookwood High School (Snellville, Georgia)
Two selections after Michael Wacha joined the Cardinals, the Braves took the young Sims. A few years ago, the Braves made news by mining their home state better than any other team. It seemed like the majority of big time amateur baseball players from Georgia were drafted and came into their own in the Braves system. Atlanta has moved on from that OCD need to keep their players home, but went retro to grab Sims in the first round.
Sims started 2012 in the Gulf Coast League, but quickly made it to Danville, which is pretty impressive for an 18 year-old facing college players. After getting his feet wet in rookie ball, Sims got the call to play in Rome last season and was superb. He struck out 134 in 116.2 ING while giving up just three homers and 46 walks. His fastball can touch north of 95 mph and he throws both a plus slider and slow curveball. I've read that he's working on his changeup. The Braves think enough of him to be deamed untouchable in trade talks. Sims doesn't turn 20 until May 10th and will likely anchor the Lynchburg Hillcats rotation with the Braves going slow and deliberate with him.
2. Alex Wood, LHP, University of Georgia
While expectations were high for Wood to rise through the minors quickly, it seemed a bit much to expect him to wear an Atlanta uniform less than a year after being selected by the Braves. Wood played an irreplaceable role for the Braves in 2013, both as a starter and a reliever. He appeared in 31 games between a pair of stints with Atlanta, logging 77.2 innings and even got postseason experience. Wood started eleven games and while his control was not pin point (3.1 BB/9), he struck out 77 and gave up just three homers. A lot has been made of his funky delivery and whether it will cause problems for him down the line. That's still up for debate, but what we do know is that Wood has shown impressive ability incredibly early in his career. A candidate for the fifth starting gig in camp, Wood will likely be in the majors if healthy regardless if he wins the battle to be the fifth starter.
3. Bryan De La Rosa, C, Olymphic Heights High School (Boca Raton, FL)
Over the last couple of years, the Braves have used high selections on catchers. De La Rosa, picked with the 116th overall selection, struggled badly after signing, OPSing just .415 in 29 games in the Gulf Coast League. He improved last year, hitting .261/.328/.306 last season while sharing the catcher duties with Danville. The native of Puerto Rico turns 20 in March and was considered one of the top catchers in the 2012 draft so it wasn't much of a reach, though at 5'8", he is undersized. Defensively, there are few questions. Can he hit? He might get a shot at Rome to try that.
4. Justin Black, OF, Billings West High School (Billings, MT)
Black was a surprise pick in 2012. Billings West doesn't have a baseball team and Black played American Legion ball. Black was a raw talent who the Braves were able to convince to give up a committment to Nebraska so that he would sign. He apparently has tremendous speed and power, but so far, he has not been able to show much of it, hitting .161 in 94 games split at both rookie stops. He has just eight steals to his name, but has been caught seven times. The Braves will be patient with Black because they invested a good deal in him. He might return to Danville again next season.
5. Blake Brown, OF, University of Missouri
A 48th round pick by the Pirates in 2009, Brown signed with Atlanta after getting selected in 2012. After signing, he showed some good on-base skills (.201/.313/.313) to go with a lack of hits. He also stole ten bases out of 14 attempts while with the D-Braves. Brown opened 2013 with the Rome Braves, but struggled to the tune of a .565 OPS. He finished up with Danville and showed little improvement. Before being drafted, Brown was considered a guy who had a strong tool set that if he began to utilize, he would be a solid player. He has yet to begin that, but will be back at Rome this season.
6. Josh Elander, C/OF, Texas Christian University
The Braves were likely very happy to get Elander in the sixth round because many graded him higher than that. Elander was fairly new to catcher and while his bat played best at catcher, there were concerns if he could stay there. After signing, Elander played with Danville and got on base a lot (.366 OBP) to help propel him to an .805 OPS. He added 12 extra-base hits (4 HR) in 145 PA and nearly walked as much as he struck out. He opened 2013 with the Rome Braves and rocketed his way to a wonderful first half in which he slashed .318/.381/.536 with 36 EBH (11 HR). However, unlike 2012 where he stayed behind the plate, he moved to the outfield, playing entirely in left (with the occasional DH assignment). Elander finished the year in Lynchburg and while his numbers were not as sexy, he did on-base .345 in 61 games. I could see Elander starting 2014 in Mississippi. Again, had he remained behind the plate, he would be a fairly big prospect right now. As a LF, he needs to explode offensively. Could be a sleeper.
7. David Starn, LHP, Kent State University
In recent drafts, the Braves have focused on college stars early-and-often and Starn was another example of that approach. A leader of the KSU rotation, Starn didn't sign until July and immediately joined the Rome Braves. His numbers were nothing to get excited about, especially the 20 walks in 34.1 ING. He was expected to get a second crack at the Rome rotation with fellow 2012 draftee Lucas Sims in 2013, but back troubles kept him out. He never got healthy and missed the entire year. Starn was a former walk-on so he has experience being a long-shot. He was known for control with Jamie Moyer comparisions. Could be more like Trey Hodges, though.
8. David Peterson, RHP, College of Charleston
Peterson was selected twice in the 40 range of the draft before getting into the top ten for the 2012 draft. A college closer with a mid 90's fastball, the only question was whether or not he could command his stuff. Atlanta has had some real success with college closers recently and Peterson got off to a good start once he signed, pitching for Rome in 2012 with 20 games and 8 saves. He K'd 23 in his 28 innings and walked 11. The Braves decided to switch him to the rotation for 2013 and he lasted a month for the Hillcats rotation before shoulder injuries ended his season. He was looking just as good as a starter, though he was on a pitch limit. Not sure if he will be set for next season, but likely could see him returning to Lynchburg.
9. Steven Schils, RHP, Florida Tech
Another college closer, Schils was a reach in the ninth round and wasn't considered a big draft prospect. As such, he has spent the last two summers struggling badly in the Gul Coast League. He appeared in three games during the 2012 season after signing and walked nine of the 14 he faced. He spent the rest of the season on the injury list. Last year, he appeared in 17 games, but walked 15 in 18 innings with 19 K's. Not a promising start to his career.
10. Mike Dodig, 3B, Columbia-Greene Community College (Hudson, NY)
Another reach, Dodig has also struggled through two years. Expected to have plus power, Dodig has hit .176 in 63 professional games with all but 14 of those games coming in the Gulf Coast League. Likely going to get another season at rookie-ball, Dodig is 20 years-old and has a big frame at 6'4" with a left-handed bat, but Joe Leonard has a similar frame and has 21 homers in over 1500 PA in the minors (and couldn't even luck into a homer with Gwinnett last season).
Some other interesting picks...
-A trio of Random Prospect of the Day players were part of the 2012 draft. 15th rounder RHP Alex Wilson (see his RPOD profile) out of Wofford College has been decent enough at both Danville and Rome and should get a shot with Lynchburg this year to see if he can get moving quicker. 18th rounder 2B Ross Heffely (see his RPOD profile) out of Western Carolina followed up a nice 2012 season (.757 OPS with Rome) by struggling through a first half with Lynchburg and an even worse second half in Rome. 30th rounder 1B Casey Kalenkosky (see his RPOD profile) out of Texas State posted a .722 OPS with Rome last year. He saw a lot of action at catcher while pitching a third of an inning.
-13th rounder Nate Hyatt out of Appalachain State was used a lot as the closer in Lynchburg last year and saved 12 games while completing 33 of the 43 games he got into. 10.6 K/9 is sweet, but a 5.8 BB/9 takes away from it. His walk rate was a lot better in 2012, though.
-22nd rounder Shae Simmons, who refined his skills at Southeast Missouri State, might be the second player from the 2012 draft to get to the majors. Last season, after a 1.49 ERA and 14 K/9 rate in 39 games with Rome (including 24 saves), Simmons skipped Lynchburg and went to Mississippi for the final month, where he held his own. In 66 games in the minors over two seasons, he has 118 K's in 78 ING (13.6 K/9) with a 4.4 BB/9. He has not given up a professional homerun. Simmons is a super longshot to get involved in the bullpen battle for the big league team, but he could make his debut before 2014 is over.
-31st-round selection Matt Kimbrel Southern Polytechnic State University has not looked so good through two seasons in rookie ball. At least his brother was happy with the selection.
Tuesday, January 7, 2014
On This HOF Voting Absurdity
I have avoided a mock ballot for the Hall of Fame. I really don’t want to get into the idea of whether or not we should allow players suspected (or suspended) of PED usage to join the moral giants like Ty Cobb and Mickey Mantle. I mean, if you want to keep Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens out, fine. I think it’s a ridiculous effort, but whatever. Your choice.
But the idea that someone could leave Gregory Alan Maddux off their ballot really is mind-boggling. Greg Maddux’s production is just sick. I wrote about it for the Walk-Off Walk Favorite Braves list. Some of the “wow” numbers seem so simple. 546 putouts…158 more than the second most. 1.559 ERA in 1994. 1.631 ERA the following season. 0.81 WHIP in 1995. 20 batters walked in 232.2 innings during an 8.2 fWAR 1997 season. Six of those walks were intentional.
His dominance cannot be overstated and too often seems forgotten during a time where peers like Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Clemens were bringing the heat. The Professor struck out 200 just once. He didn’t need to strike out people to get them out. His over-matched opponents were too busy hitting HIS pitch into the dirt. It wasn’t that Maddux pitched to contact. He made you make the out.
There should be absolutely no doubt how deserving the four-time Cy Young winner is. For reference…the only seven pitchers who have more wins than Maddux are Cy Young, Walter Johnson, Pete Alexander, Christy Mathewson, Pud Galvin, Warren Spahn, and Kid Nichols. All seven are in the Hall and only Spahn pitched after World War II. I don’t even put much value in win-loss records, but when your company includes just seven people, all of which are enshrined in Cooperstown, that’s pretty good. In fact, everyone with 300 wins or more is in the Hall with the exception of four - Maddux, Clemens, Tom Glavine, and the Big Unit. And at least half of those will be selected tomorrow.
But not with the assistance of Dodgers beat writer Ken Gurnick. A member of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, Gurnick has a vote and gave MLB.com that ballot with an explanation. It included just one name. Jack Morris. Why? Well, here’s Gurnick. “Morris has flaws -- a 3.90 ERA, for example. But he gets my vote for more than a decade of ace performance that included three 20-win seasons, Cy Young Award votes in seven seasons and Most Valuable Player Award votes in five. As for those who played during the period of PED use, I won't vote for any of them.”
Morris, who Gurnick admits is flawed, deserves his selection based on a decade of ace performance. From 1988 to 2003, Greg Maddux was 281-145 with a 2.76 ERA. He threw 33 shutouts with a 1.098 WHIP. Morris had three 20-win seasons. Maddux only had two, but he had five other 19-win seasons including the strike-shortened 1995 season where he was 19-2. However, Morris had Cy Young votes in seven seasons. Impressive, except Maddux beats that by two seasons and he won four Cy Youngs, something Morris didn’t do once. Morris wasn’t even a runner-up during those five years Gurnick speaks of. He did have MVP votes in five different seasons, never finishing higher than 13th. Maddux took home MVP votes in six years, including finishing third in 1995.
But…Morris didn’t pitch during the PED era. Except…the usage of greenies was rampant in the 60’s, 70’s, and yes, the 80’s. PED stands for Performance Enhancing Drug and amphetamines were one of the first stimulants used to improve the player’s performance. But that’s okay in Gurnick’s view. Morris is his guy. His only guy. Chipper Jones said that some (expletive unknown) would leave Maddux off his ballot just to make sure there would be no unanimous pick. I guess Gurnick's reasoning is better than that? Or not. I don't know.
The Hall of Fame’s value is found by who is in it. Should Morris be in the Hall? He’s not on my ballot, but I can understand why he makes the ballot of others. Does Maddux belong in the Hall? Only if the Hall of Fame is worth a shit.
But this is why the Hall of Fame has become such a joke. Craig Biggio, another deserving candidate, might miss out again for some odd reasons. Beyond the era he played in, some just need time. Hal Bodley, another voter, said “I'm not ready to vote for Biggio.” Well, hate to break it to you, Hal, but he’s not exactly going to improve his numbers. They are just there. Either he deserves to be there or not. But Marty Noble voted for only three players because he doesn’t want too many people getting in during one year. Yeah, that’s a good reason. Rangers beat writer T.R. Sullivan voted for Rafael Palmeiro over Frank Thomas because…well, his explanation is rather confusing.
Again, the value of the Hall of Fame is found by who is in it. Your vote should strive to include only the very best. And newsflash – Greg Maddux is one of the best pitchers of all time. To leave him off just to make a point takes away from what the Hall of Fame attempts to be. And if you don’t care about making the best vote, your vote should be stripped away. There is no defensible position against the selection of Maddux.
My New Year’s resolution to not be so angry…yeah, about that...
But the idea that someone could leave Gregory Alan Maddux off their ballot really is mind-boggling. Greg Maddux’s production is just sick. I wrote about it for the Walk-Off Walk Favorite Braves list. Some of the “wow” numbers seem so simple. 546 putouts…158 more than the second most. 1.559 ERA in 1994. 1.631 ERA the following season. 0.81 WHIP in 1995. 20 batters walked in 232.2 innings during an 8.2 fWAR 1997 season. Six of those walks were intentional.
His dominance cannot be overstated and too often seems forgotten during a time where peers like Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez, and Clemens were bringing the heat. The Professor struck out 200 just once. He didn’t need to strike out people to get them out. His over-matched opponents were too busy hitting HIS pitch into the dirt. It wasn’t that Maddux pitched to contact. He made you make the out.
There should be absolutely no doubt how deserving the four-time Cy Young winner is. For reference…the only seven pitchers who have more wins than Maddux are Cy Young, Walter Johnson, Pete Alexander, Christy Mathewson, Pud Galvin, Warren Spahn, and Kid Nichols. All seven are in the Hall and only Spahn pitched after World War II. I don’t even put much value in win-loss records, but when your company includes just seven people, all of which are enshrined in Cooperstown, that’s pretty good. In fact, everyone with 300 wins or more is in the Hall with the exception of four - Maddux, Clemens, Tom Glavine, and the Big Unit. And at least half of those will be selected tomorrow.
But not with the assistance of Dodgers beat writer Ken Gurnick. A member of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America, Gurnick has a vote and gave MLB.com that ballot with an explanation. It included just one name. Jack Morris. Why? Well, here’s Gurnick. “Morris has flaws -- a 3.90 ERA, for example. But he gets my vote for more than a decade of ace performance that included three 20-win seasons, Cy Young Award votes in seven seasons and Most Valuable Player Award votes in five. As for those who played during the period of PED use, I won't vote for any of them.”
Morris, who Gurnick admits is flawed, deserves his selection based on a decade of ace performance. From 1988 to 2003, Greg Maddux was 281-145 with a 2.76 ERA. He threw 33 shutouts with a 1.098 WHIP. Morris had three 20-win seasons. Maddux only had two, but he had five other 19-win seasons including the strike-shortened 1995 season where he was 19-2. However, Morris had Cy Young votes in seven seasons. Impressive, except Maddux beats that by two seasons and he won four Cy Youngs, something Morris didn’t do once. Morris wasn’t even a runner-up during those five years Gurnick speaks of. He did have MVP votes in five different seasons, never finishing higher than 13th. Maddux took home MVP votes in six years, including finishing third in 1995.
But…Morris didn’t pitch during the PED era. Except…the usage of greenies was rampant in the 60’s, 70’s, and yes, the 80’s. PED stands for Performance Enhancing Drug and amphetamines were one of the first stimulants used to improve the player’s performance. But that’s okay in Gurnick’s view. Morris is his guy. His only guy. Chipper Jones said that some (expletive unknown) would leave Maddux off his ballot just to make sure there would be no unanimous pick. I guess Gurnick's reasoning is better than that? Or not. I don't know.
The Hall of Fame’s value is found by who is in it. Should Morris be in the Hall? He’s not on my ballot, but I can understand why he makes the ballot of others. Does Maddux belong in the Hall? Only if the Hall of Fame is worth a shit.
But this is why the Hall of Fame has become such a joke. Craig Biggio, another deserving candidate, might miss out again for some odd reasons. Beyond the era he played in, some just need time. Hal Bodley, another voter, said “I'm not ready to vote for Biggio.” Well, hate to break it to you, Hal, but he’s not exactly going to improve his numbers. They are just there. Either he deserves to be there or not. But Marty Noble voted for only three players because he doesn’t want too many people getting in during one year. Yeah, that’s a good reason. Rangers beat writer T.R. Sullivan voted for Rafael Palmeiro over Frank Thomas because…well, his explanation is rather confusing.
Again, the value of the Hall of Fame is found by who is in it. Your vote should strive to include only the very best. And newsflash – Greg Maddux is one of the best pitchers of all time. To leave him off just to make a point takes away from what the Hall of Fame attempts to be. And if you don’t care about making the best vote, your vote should be stripped away. There is no defensible position against the selection of Maddux.
My New Year’s resolution to not be so angry…yeah, about that...
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