It's difficult to be down on Kris Medlen. After all, at this time last year, he still hadn't been moved to the rotation. From July 31st to the end of the season, Medlen took the ball 12 times as a starter and for two months, he was an ace-quality performer. He picked up a pair of complete games, including a five-hit shutout against the Padres and an even better outing against the Rockies. On September 1st, he was charged with an unearned run and struck out 12 while going the distance. The Braves rolled in all twelve starts from Medlen with the opposition never scoring more than three runs.
The future was bright with a Cy Young contender in the rotation heading into 2013. And things seemed to go that way early. While his record was 1-5 during his first ten starts this season, there were things that made you think he was pitching far better than his useless win-loss record. Hitters were only hitting .249 against him, his ERA was 3.16, and he had a 2/1 K/BB ratio. On the other hand, there were potentially concerning issues. A 1.33 WHIP isn't what you usually see from a guy who might be heading to his first All-Star Game, or at least we thought that was possible back in March. His GB/FB rate fell from 1.18 in 2012 to 0.78 through the first ten starts.
All of that would have been chalked up to a guy struggling to adjust. But the next ten starts happened. Suddenly, batters were hitting .309 against him. Not only that, the ball was exploding off the bats of the opposing hitters to the tune of 25 extra-base hits. His 1.44 WHIP was masked to some extent as he got lucky and the runners weren't scoring against him through the first-half of his second ten starts. That luck dried up quickly and the runs started to pile up. So did the loses and unlike earlier this year, Medlen is not a hard-luck loser. He's just a loser.
That's harsh. Meds is a great guy and he has talent. But if you ignore 12 starts last season, Medlen is an average pitcher, completely living up to his 1.0 fWAR. More, his struggles aren't just limited to later in the game. The first-time through the lineup, hitters are OPSing .813. Ouch.
Watching a Medlen game is an act of utter frustration. Brian McCann sets up outside and the pitch is inside. McCann settles inside and the ball is out over the plate. Evan Gattis tells him he wants it high, it's at the belt. Gerald Laird indicates with his glove he wants Medlen to bury his curveball and it hangs, often landing 50 feet beyond the wall. And sometimes, the changeup is a thing of beauty. But the next changeup has no movement and the batter is on second with a double.
Medlen can contribute at this level and maybe coming out of the pen will benefit him. I'm not confident of that because location is often mechanical and Medlen recently spoke of a flaw he saw in his delivery. I want to believe it's that because of his previous success at this level. And I'm not overly confident in Alex Wood replacing Medlen full-time, though I admit I am fascinated by a return of Brandon Beachy so we can try to get a better look at what the latter can provide down the stretch and going into next season.
Last month, Medlen said he didn't want to go to the bullpen, but recently said he would do whatever is asked of him. It's that attitude that we love and it's that attitude that makes us root for him. I can't blame Fredi Gonzalez is he sticks with Medlen for awhile longer. I also can't fault him if he makes a move soon. The Medlen of today is not the Medlen of 2012. It's unfortunate because that ace would be a tremendous addition like it was last year.
Wednesday, July 24, 2013
Twitter Feed: July 24
More twitter fun. Feel free to follow me @WalkOffWalk1
- Braves checked in on Tigers lefty Phil Coke, according to Jerry Crasnick. Coke is an extreme left-hand specialist. Righthanders have slashed .293/.374/.439 against Coke throughout his career with a OPS of over .900 against Coke this season. Amazingly, despite the apparent ease of finding these numbers, Jim Leyland has signed off on Coke facing a right-hand hitting batter 73 times compared to 60 times against left-handers. I get that LOOGY's often have to face right-hand hitters. Sometimes, they have to face switch-hitters whose perceived worst side is hitting from the right-hand side. Other times, there's a righty sandwiched between two lefties so you take a chance. But a specialist like Coke, who has appeared in 32 games should only have about half as many innings pitched, not the 30.1 innings Coke does have. For what it's worth, lefties are slashing .214/.271/.346. For what it's worth again, nothing seemed to come from the talks. For what it may never be worth...it would be awesome to see a guy whose last name matched one of the greatest exports to come from Georgia.
- David O'Brien took a question to Fredi Gonzalez many of us have had. Why does he insist on batting Andrelton Simmons in the lead-off slot? I don't know why I am depressed by his response, but according to O'Brien (who is paraphrasing), Simmons bats lead-off "because Rickey Henderson or Vince Coleman's unavailable." Oh, that makes sense. .283 OBP, 12th worst mark in baseball. .640 OPS, "good" for tenth worst. Of course, Simmons did go out and have a good game with a leadoff homer and a long at-bat that produced a walk. Still, because Henderson and Coleman are unavailable, Gonzalez is obligated to put a guy who is miserable at the first task for a batter, let alone one who is receiving the most at-bats on the team? I imagine Henderson is available...but that's another sad story.
- From Kyle Tait, Christian Bethancourt entered yesterday with a 21-game on-base streak. It has long been a question if Bethancourt will ever have his bat even come close to reaching his defensive skills. He hasn't really hit since 2011 during a 54-game run with Rome as he repeated the level. The more he produces over the next week, the more it could help him as a trade piece until the deadline. If he's still a Brave come August 1st, the Braves can get back to seeing if he truly has a long-term future with the organization.
- Guy named Howard Megdel leads readers to his latest column. In it, he is curious if Brian McCann is on his way out. It's a valid question with Evan Gattis and Gerald Laird in the fold for 2014 and if Bethancourt continues to show some ability with his bat, he will be in the wings for 2015. I love what McCann has done this season, but I question how long he can continue to contribute at the level we have come to expect from him. Consider he will be in his mid-30's by the time his next deal expires. What kind of player are you paying for in 2017, when McCann will be 33?
Tuesday, July 23, 2013
Twitter Feed: July 23
New start to a ongoing column. Welcome to the Twitter Feed where we look at news coming from tweets abou the Braves. You can follow me @WalkOffWalk1
- If you haven't seen Jason Heyward's ridiculously awesome catch from last night, the official Braves twitter has the video here. I recently wrote about the move of Heyward to center, believing that he was the only option the Braves had with B.J. Upton out. If you're curious, there is no way Jose Constanza or Reed Johnson make that grab. I'm less sure if Upton does. My gut tells me with Upton's range, speed, and experience in center, he would have got there. The catch wouldn't have been nearly as memorable. Some pile on Upton due to his offensive troubles, but his defense is still above-average.
- MLB Reports has a link to their look at Braves payroll moving forward. There's not a lot of info in the actual link, especially when you can visit Cot's for a far more in-depth look. I do enjoy the contention that the Braves don't like to move runners over. Not liking to do something is not the same as not being best suited to that one thing. Atlanta would be failing to maximize their strengths by playing "move-the-runner-over."
- According to 670 the Score, Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers appeared on the Mully & Hanley show in Chicago to say that it's a Jesse Crain to the Braves is a "done deal" if Crain proves himself to be healthy. I've avoided doing a Trade Target on Crain because I've never bought into Atlanta being a true contender for Crain's services. It's not that I don't believe he would be a wonderful pickup for the Braves or that I'm against getting him due to his right shoulder strain he suffered at the end of June. Instead, I have felt the price would be prohibitive. Crain looks like he will make it back before the end of the month. This could get interesting.
- In two separate tweets, David O'Brien said the Braves were possibly scouting the White Sox's Matt Lindstrom and Minnesota lefty Brian Duensing. Lindstrom fits the mold of the rental, though the Braves could bring him back for $4M. Rather than do that, I think they would probably pay the $500K to buy out the option (or even get the White Sox to fit the bill). Lindstrom has been quite effective this season against righties, but has never been good against lefties (.768 OPS career, .975 this season). Expensive price tag for a ROOGY. Duensing was miscast for most of his career as a starter. He's been better (I guess) this season with a 3.33 FIP. His career splits indicate he is tough on lefties, though he has shown no platoon splits this season. He earned $1.3M in his first year of arbitration.
- Couple of tweets from Grant McAuley brought this information on Reed Johnson. His go-ahead pinch-hit single was his eleventh hit as a pinch-hitter this season, good for second this season. In 2011, Johnson led the league in pinch-hits with 18.
- One more tidbit on Heyward's catch comes in nerdy goodness by Adam Burnett. "Heyward covered 96.2 feet in 3.9 seconds for the catch. That’s a speed of 16.8 MPH, or the pace of running a mile in 3.5 minutes."
Trade Targets: Scott Downs, Michael Gonzalez
A couple more lefties that have been tied to Braves rumors, or at least the left-hand reliever market.
Scott Downs
Hard to believe, but Downs is one of five active pitchers and eight overall players that played for both the Expos and Blue Jays. Downs was also traded three different times in a 10 month period with players like Mike Morgan, Rondell White, Rick Aguilera, and Kyle Lohse changing teams in those deals. But it wasn't until his sixth shot at a major league job that Downs came into his own. The former starter appeared in half of the 2007 Blue Jays' games, pitching just 58 innings. From '07 to '12, he appeared in no fewer than 48 games and pitched at least 45 innings.
Downs, like Javier Lopez, is a highly-compensated reliever often tasked with retiring one or two batters a game. After excellent work with the Jays, Downs signed with the Angels for $15 million over three seasons before 2011. Relying on a sinker he throws about 80% of the time, Downs has been one of the best left-hand specialists in the game, posting a FIP of 3.66 and under Anaheim.
The Angels are likely not going anywhere this season. The A's and Rangers have pulled away from them, leaving them ten games out of first and battling other teams like the Orioles and Rays for a wild card spot seems unlikely to go their way. Because of the front office's efforts to compete, the Angels system is bare, especially when it comes to starting pitching prospects. Maybe a pair of projectionable young arms could bring Downs over.
Mike Gonzalez
A former Brave who saved 26 games during his three years in Atlanta, Gonzalez has struggled in recent years to keep a job in one place for long, playing in four different MLB cities over the past three seasons. Injuries have always been a concern for the guy who can't sit still on the mound. He has already reached 50 games this season for the Brewers. The work load could be concerning for a guy who has had trouble pitching full seasons in the majors.
Once capable of pitching complete innings and closing the door in the ninth, Gonzalez is limited to appearing in a specialist role. He's particularly nasty on lefthanders, as fans of the Braves may remember. Very few rely on their slider as much as Gonzalez, who almost throws it as much as he throws his fastball.
Gonzalez's trade value will be decided by the market. He's available and the Braves may not be his only suitor. I worry about his work load to this point. However, it's difficult to find guys without their problem because they often aren't available. If cheaply attained, Gonzalez can be splendid over the last two months.
Scott Downs
Hard to believe, but Downs is one of five active pitchers and eight overall players that played for both the Expos and Blue Jays. Downs was also traded three different times in a 10 month period with players like Mike Morgan, Rondell White, Rick Aguilera, and Kyle Lohse changing teams in those deals. But it wasn't until his sixth shot at a major league job that Downs came into his own. The former starter appeared in half of the 2007 Blue Jays' games, pitching just 58 innings. From '07 to '12, he appeared in no fewer than 48 games and pitched at least 45 innings.
Downs, like Javier Lopez, is a highly-compensated reliever often tasked with retiring one or two batters a game. After excellent work with the Jays, Downs signed with the Angels for $15 million over three seasons before 2011. Relying on a sinker he throws about 80% of the time, Downs has been one of the best left-hand specialists in the game, posting a FIP of 3.66 and under Anaheim.
The Angels are likely not going anywhere this season. The A's and Rangers have pulled away from them, leaving them ten games out of first and battling other teams like the Orioles and Rays for a wild card spot seems unlikely to go their way. Because of the front office's efforts to compete, the Angels system is bare, especially when it comes to starting pitching prospects. Maybe a pair of projectionable young arms could bring Downs over.
Mike Gonzalez
A former Brave who saved 26 games during his three years in Atlanta, Gonzalez has struggled in recent years to keep a job in one place for long, playing in four different MLB cities over the past three seasons. Injuries have always been a concern for the guy who can't sit still on the mound. He has already reached 50 games this season for the Brewers. The work load could be concerning for a guy who has had trouble pitching full seasons in the majors.
Once capable of pitching complete innings and closing the door in the ninth, Gonzalez is limited to appearing in a specialist role. He's particularly nasty on lefthanders, as fans of the Braves may remember. Very few rely on their slider as much as Gonzalez, who almost throws it as much as he throws his fastball.
Gonzalez's trade value will be decided by the market. He's available and the Braves may not be his only suitor. I worry about his work load to this point. However, it's difficult to find guys without their problem because they often aren't available. If cheaply attained, Gonzalez can be splendid over the last two months.
Monday, July 22, 2013
2013 Atlanta Braves Myths: Part VIII
Some of the most interesting myths concerning the Braves are about strikeouts. Everybody knew coming into this season that the Braves were going to strike out at a ridiculous rate. From the moment this team was constructed, arguments against that construction were presented by many, many, MANY commentators, bloggers, and people who think their tweets are valuable. They won't make productive outs, they said. They can't win if they strike out, they scream. STRIKEOUTS ARE BAD, they used all capital letters to say. Twice, I have specifically addressed myths that concern Atlanta's strikeout frequency. Today, make that three times.
1. Atlanta doesn't make productive outs because of strikeouts.
2. Atlanta seems to fall behind early and has to play catch-up.
3. Atlanta can't win if they keep striking out so much!
4. Anyone would be better than Uggla!
5. Unless Its a Save Situation, Don't Use Kimbrel.
6. A Lack of a Leadoff Hitter Will Kill the Braves & 7. No World Champion gets shut out as often as the Braves.
8. Strikeouts Are Bad Because They Don't Press the Defense
One of the common complaints historically against strikeouts is that by not putting the ball in play, you take the pressure off the defense. That isn't in itself wrong. At lower levels, especially little league and high school ball, putting pressure on the defense can go a long way toward facilitating defensive miscues and with that, help your team score.
Those complaints have also been used to explain why the Braves won't be a true contender. I don't tend to watch ESPN, but on MLB Network, the lack of pressure put on opposing defenses has often been said by Harold Reynolds and Mitch Williams. However, just using those names explains the level of intelligence that went into the contention made by the two former players. Why have facts when you can feel the right answer?
I don't necessarily disagree that for certain players, making contact and pressuring the defense is a key component in their game. For instance...Reynolds. During his 12 year career, Reynolds stole 250 bases with an isolated slugging under .100. His game was getting on base and using speed. To his credit, he didn't strike out much. He would be upset if we didn't mention that. And his speed seemed to have some impact on the defense. Reynolds reached base 64 times on an error, including two different seasons where he reached base 10 or more times in a single season via the error. While the infield hit statistic has only been recorded since 1988, 144 of Reynolds' 958 hits from '88 to his retirement were infield hits, an impressive 15%.
However, that was his game. The Braves don't have a guy just like that. Jordan Schafer is the closest and he is hurt. You ask your team to do what they are best suited for.
Regardless, are the Braves noticeably hurt by their strikeouts and their expected inability to put pressure on defenses? Entering Sunday, the Braves had 840 strikeouts, which led the National League and trailed just the Astros for most strikeouts in baseball. The league average is 723.
Atlanta had reached base on an error 37 times this season, led by Andrelton Simmons who has reached on an error an astonishing ten times. Simmons hits his fair share of grounders (46.9%), but not like Norichika Aoki, the man who shares the league-lead in ROE's with ten of his own. Aoki puts the ball on the ground 63.5% of the time and seems to be faster as well. Anywho, as a team, where does the Braves 37 ROE's put them? Fifth place and six above the league average. Here's a look at the top five with their place in K% added for reference. Note that the league average is that 19.8% of all plate appearances end in a strikeout.
1. Atlanta doesn't make productive outs because of strikeouts.
2. Atlanta seems to fall behind early and has to play catch-up.
3. Atlanta can't win if they keep striking out so much!
4. Anyone would be better than Uggla!
5. Unless Its a Save Situation, Don't Use Kimbrel.
6. A Lack of a Leadoff Hitter Will Kill the Braves & 7. No World Champion gets shut out as often as the Braves.
8. Strikeouts Are Bad Because They Don't Press the Defense
One of the common complaints historically against strikeouts is that by not putting the ball in play, you take the pressure off the defense. That isn't in itself wrong. At lower levels, especially little league and high school ball, putting pressure on the defense can go a long way toward facilitating defensive miscues and with that, help your team score.
Those complaints have also been used to explain why the Braves won't be a true contender. I don't tend to watch ESPN, but on MLB Network, the lack of pressure put on opposing defenses has often been said by Harold Reynolds and Mitch Williams. However, just using those names explains the level of intelligence that went into the contention made by the two former players. Why have facts when you can feel the right answer?
I don't necessarily disagree that for certain players, making contact and pressuring the defense is a key component in their game. For instance...Reynolds. During his 12 year career, Reynolds stole 250 bases with an isolated slugging under .100. His game was getting on base and using speed. To his credit, he didn't strike out much. He would be upset if we didn't mention that. And his speed seemed to have some impact on the defense. Reynolds reached base 64 times on an error, including two different seasons where he reached base 10 or more times in a single season via the error. While the infield hit statistic has only been recorded since 1988, 144 of Reynolds' 958 hits from '88 to his retirement were infield hits, an impressive 15%.
However, that was his game. The Braves don't have a guy just like that. Jordan Schafer is the closest and he is hurt. You ask your team to do what they are best suited for.
Regardless, are the Braves noticeably hurt by their strikeouts and their expected inability to put pressure on defenses? Entering Sunday, the Braves had 840 strikeouts, which led the National League and trailed just the Astros for most strikeouts in baseball. The league average is 723.
Atlanta had reached base on an error 37 times this season, led by Andrelton Simmons who has reached on an error an astonishing ten times. Simmons hits his fair share of grounders (46.9%), but not like Norichika Aoki, the man who shares the league-lead in ROE's with ten of his own. Aoki puts the ball on the ground 63.5% of the time and seems to be faster as well. Anywho, as a team, where does the Braves 37 ROE's put them? Fifth place and six above the league average. Here's a look at the top five with their place in K% added for reference. Note that the league average is that 19.8% of all plate appearances end in a strikeout.
| Team | ROE | Rank | K% | Rank |
| Reds | 46 | 1st | 20.0 | 12th |
| Angels | 43 | 2nd | 18.2 | 24th |
| Twins | 38 | t-3rd | 21.1 | 7th |
| Rangers | 38 | t-3rd | 17.2 | 30th |
| Braves | 37 | t-5th | 22.8 | 2nd |
| Cubs | 37 | t-5th | 19.2 | 18th |
| Mets | 37 | t-5th | 22.4 | 3rd |
If any number can tell us that making contact over striking out puts pressure on the defense, ROE should do that for us. Instead, it shows no correlation between ROE and K%. The Rangers strike out the fewest and they have one more ROE than the Braves and Mets, who strike out over 5% more. Like usual in this series, the strikeouts themselves mean jack.
In addition, there doesn't to be a correlation between infield hits and K%. Atlanta has 104 infield hits on the season, good for a tie for 8th place. The amount of infield hits is also ten more than the league average. The Rangers have 91 infield hits, good for 18th most and three below league average. In fact, infield hits doesn't even have a correlation to stolen bases beyond the Brewers, who lead both categories.
Scientifically, there is little evidence to believe that strikeouts impact the amount of pressure the opposing team's defense truly goes under. These are professional ballplayers. Most know how to defend their position and with advanced scouting, are in great position to field the ball even before the pitch. The idea that striking out provides any noticeable effect on making things easier on the opposition is just not supported by facts. It feels like the right answer. For me, that's just not enough.
Discussion: Jason Heyward to Center
Before Sunday's game with the White Sox, Dave O'Brien tweeted that the Braves were going to move Jason Heyward to center field for the time being with B.J. Upton out. This move does have both positives and negatives so I'll look at both.
Positives
Outside of Heyward, the Braves have two players with experience in center. Reed Johnson does a few things rather well at this level. He hits lefties at a good rate. He's competent in a corner outfield slot. And that's a few. One thing Johnson is simply not capable of doing is playing center field. It's not a slight on him, but he's just not able to play center field. Very few can. If Heyward and Johnson aren't playing center, the only other option is Jose Constanza. The little spark plug hasn't played much center at the major league level and when he has, he has been horrific. He also hasn't been an everyday option in center since 2009. Typically, if you can play center, you will stay there. That's not to say that Heyward will be a plus in center where Heyward has only four starts and 29 innings. In the minors, he only had 17 games there. Since he was drafted, Heyward has played right field nearly every night, except for the ones where he was injured (and too many times, that has been the case). Nevertheless, Heyward's superb range in right makes him one of the best, if not best, right fielders defensively in the game. While playing center is different and picking up the ball off the bat is also more difficult, Heyward is definitely athletic enough.
Second, Heyward in center with Justin Upton almost certainly moving to right opens left field for Evan Gattis to get his fair share of consistent at-bats. There are concerns with Gattis playing every day. As a starter, Gattis is hitting .222/.281/.467 in his first 46 starts. He seems to be better when Fredi Gonzalez can pick the spot he comes to the plate. Still, the only way he Braves find out how he will handle being a starting player is to start him. Johnson and Constanza will likely have to be ready to be a defensive replacement as Gattis in left is scary. Sometimes, though, you have to sacrifice defense for hitting.
Negatives
Heyward is coming off a hamstring injury. Is the best course of action to put him in center, where he probably has some level of discomfort, and let him try to range from gap-to-gap? Especially considering if Gattis is in left, Heyward has to be counted on to make up for some of Gattis's complete lack of range? If Heyward is feeling any soreness in his hamstring, playing center field could either cause him to nurse it or hurt himself further.
Plus, as much difficulty as Heyward has had with getting comfortable at the plate, making him more uncomfortable with a strange position is worrisome.
Beyond that, using Gattis and Chris Johnson in the same game means the Braves will likely be using two defensive replacements in late games with the lead. This could be dangerous when the Braves do give up the lead, forcing the Braves to rely on the bats of Paul Janish, Reed Johnson, and/or Constanza late in games, even in extra innings. The five-men bench quickly becomes a three-men bench at best. That handcuffs how aggressive the Braves can be in crunch time. Replacing Brian McCann with a pinch runner would probably fall on a pitcher.
Conclusion
Bottom line, the Braves don't have many options. Todd Cunningham's defense in center is probably the best of the possible options, but he's in Gwinnett. So excusing him, the three options presented to Fredi Gonzalez clearly point to Heyward being the best. While there is a valid amount of concerns about a move like this, especially from an injury side, getting the better lineup options to the plate brings more value.
The Braves might find themselves dealing with the occasional short bench because of defensive replacements, but that doesn't seem like a problem they will face very often. And how much more of an injury concern Heyward has in center vs. right is debatable. My gut tells me he won't be more adversely at risk than if they were playing him in right.
Though it does feel very odd to agree with Fredi.
Positives
Outside of Heyward, the Braves have two players with experience in center. Reed Johnson does a few things rather well at this level. He hits lefties at a good rate. He's competent in a corner outfield slot. And that's a few. One thing Johnson is simply not capable of doing is playing center field. It's not a slight on him, but he's just not able to play center field. Very few can. If Heyward and Johnson aren't playing center, the only other option is Jose Constanza. The little spark plug hasn't played much center at the major league level and when he has, he has been horrific. He also hasn't been an everyday option in center since 2009. Typically, if you can play center, you will stay there. That's not to say that Heyward will be a plus in center where Heyward has only four starts and 29 innings. In the minors, he only had 17 games there. Since he was drafted, Heyward has played right field nearly every night, except for the ones where he was injured (and too many times, that has been the case). Nevertheless, Heyward's superb range in right makes him one of the best, if not best, right fielders defensively in the game. While playing center is different and picking up the ball off the bat is also more difficult, Heyward is definitely athletic enough.
Second, Heyward in center with Justin Upton almost certainly moving to right opens left field for Evan Gattis to get his fair share of consistent at-bats. There are concerns with Gattis playing every day. As a starter, Gattis is hitting .222/.281/.467 in his first 46 starts. He seems to be better when Fredi Gonzalez can pick the spot he comes to the plate. Still, the only way he Braves find out how he will handle being a starting player is to start him. Johnson and Constanza will likely have to be ready to be a defensive replacement as Gattis in left is scary. Sometimes, though, you have to sacrifice defense for hitting.
Negatives
Heyward is coming off a hamstring injury. Is the best course of action to put him in center, where he probably has some level of discomfort, and let him try to range from gap-to-gap? Especially considering if Gattis is in left, Heyward has to be counted on to make up for some of Gattis's complete lack of range? If Heyward is feeling any soreness in his hamstring, playing center field could either cause him to nurse it or hurt himself further.
Plus, as much difficulty as Heyward has had with getting comfortable at the plate, making him more uncomfortable with a strange position is worrisome.
Beyond that, using Gattis and Chris Johnson in the same game means the Braves will likely be using two defensive replacements in late games with the lead. This could be dangerous when the Braves do give up the lead, forcing the Braves to rely on the bats of Paul Janish, Reed Johnson, and/or Constanza late in games, even in extra innings. The five-men bench quickly becomes a three-men bench at best. That handcuffs how aggressive the Braves can be in crunch time. Replacing Brian McCann with a pinch runner would probably fall on a pitcher.
Conclusion
Bottom line, the Braves don't have many options. Todd Cunningham's defense in center is probably the best of the possible options, but he's in Gwinnett. So excusing him, the three options presented to Fredi Gonzalez clearly point to Heyward being the best. While there is a valid amount of concerns about a move like this, especially from an injury side, getting the better lineup options to the plate brings more value.
The Braves might find themselves dealing with the occasional short bench because of defensive replacements, but that doesn't seem like a problem they will face very often. And how much more of an injury concern Heyward has in center vs. right is debatable. My gut tells me he won't be more adversely at risk than if they were playing him in right.
Though it does feel very odd to agree with Fredi.
Sunday, July 21, 2013
Howdy Kameron!
Before today's game with the Chicago White Sox, the Atlanta Braves announced they had purchased the contract of Kameron Loe and Tyler Pastornicky is headed back to Gwinnett to be...ya know...Pastornickyish. So, it's time to welcome Mr. Loe to the team and introduce ourselves to this new Brave.
Loe has been in the system since May 11th, a day after being released by the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs were already his second team of the year as Loe began the season with the Seattle Mariners. Usually, it is a bad sign when we are just passed the All-Star Break and you are wearing your third different major league uniform of the season.
After being selected with a 20th rounder in 2002, Loe joined the Texas Rangers system. The Cal-State pitcher was a quick riser through the Rangers system, making his debut with Texas on September 26th, 2004. He was a fixture for some bad Rangers staffs, appearing in 105 games over the next four seasons, including 47 starts. One highlight for him came on May 12th, 2006, when he was credited with a shutout, the only complete game of his career. However, it should be noted that it was a five-inning, weather-shorten shutout. Still counts, right?
Texas, done with the right-hander, released him after the 2008 season and Loe tried his luck in Japan, starting five games with Softbank. The results were not pretty. Not sure if he was hurt or his suckage forced them to kick him to the curb.
Coming back state-side, Loe signed with the Brewers before the 2010 season and was a pleasant surprise for them. Relying on a breaking ball he threw nearly 20% of the time, Loe posted a 3.71 FIP in 53 games out of the bullpen. He kept the ball on the ground for the most part with a 59.4 GB%, but did suffer from the homer ball, likely a product of the occasional hanging curve/slider. Still, he had good control and with his groundball tendencies, the Brewers brought back Loe in his first year of arbitration in 2011. He was ridiculously good for the Brewers that season, upping his GB% to 63.3% and lowering his FIP to 2.80 while avoiding the big flies that got him in trouble the previous year.
Loe was counted on to be an integral piece of the Brewers pen in 2012, but his numbers took a tumble. Again, balls were leaving the yard with unacceptable frequency (1.2 HR/9) and his WHIP exploded to 1.43. The Brewers, who pitched Loe seventy times in 2012 and a mind-boggling 195 times in three seasons, non-tendered Loe after 2012 rather than go a third year in arbitration.
That brings us to 2013. Loe hooked on with the Mariners for a shade over a million dollars, but after four games, Seattle waived Loe and the Cubs claimed him in mid-April. He lasted a few more weeks with the Cubs, but Chicago released him in early May after seven appearances. Since May 11th, Loe has pitched for Gwinnett, posting a respectful 1.13 WHIP and 3.39 FIP in 21 games, four starts.
With Loe, the Braves have a guy who pitches almost exclusively off his sinker as about three of every four pitches will be a sinking fastball. He compliments that with a breaking ball that some call a curve, some call a slider, others call a slurve. Either way, he drops about 10 mph off his 89 mph sinker and when he doesn't locate the breaking pitch, balls tend to leave the yard far too often. Loe is the kind of guy you take a chance on and hope he is able to spot his pitches at an unsustainable rate and get lucky the hangers don't get pulverized.
Don't expect him to stick around for long, though.
Loe has been in the system since May 11th, a day after being released by the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs were already his second team of the year as Loe began the season with the Seattle Mariners. Usually, it is a bad sign when we are just passed the All-Star Break and you are wearing your third different major league uniform of the season.
After being selected with a 20th rounder in 2002, Loe joined the Texas Rangers system. The Cal-State pitcher was a quick riser through the Rangers system, making his debut with Texas on September 26th, 2004. He was a fixture for some bad Rangers staffs, appearing in 105 games over the next four seasons, including 47 starts. One highlight for him came on May 12th, 2006, when he was credited with a shutout, the only complete game of his career. However, it should be noted that it was a five-inning, weather-shorten shutout. Still counts, right?
Texas, done with the right-hander, released him after the 2008 season and Loe tried his luck in Japan, starting five games with Softbank. The results were not pretty. Not sure if he was hurt or his suckage forced them to kick him to the curb.
Coming back state-side, Loe signed with the Brewers before the 2010 season and was a pleasant surprise for them. Relying on a breaking ball he threw nearly 20% of the time, Loe posted a 3.71 FIP in 53 games out of the bullpen. He kept the ball on the ground for the most part with a 59.4 GB%, but did suffer from the homer ball, likely a product of the occasional hanging curve/slider. Still, he had good control and with his groundball tendencies, the Brewers brought back Loe in his first year of arbitration in 2011. He was ridiculously good for the Brewers that season, upping his GB% to 63.3% and lowering his FIP to 2.80 while avoiding the big flies that got him in trouble the previous year.
Loe was counted on to be an integral piece of the Brewers pen in 2012, but his numbers took a tumble. Again, balls were leaving the yard with unacceptable frequency (1.2 HR/9) and his WHIP exploded to 1.43. The Brewers, who pitched Loe seventy times in 2012 and a mind-boggling 195 times in three seasons, non-tendered Loe after 2012 rather than go a third year in arbitration.
That brings us to 2013. Loe hooked on with the Mariners for a shade over a million dollars, but after four games, Seattle waived Loe and the Cubs claimed him in mid-April. He lasted a few more weeks with the Cubs, but Chicago released him in early May after seven appearances. Since May 11th, Loe has pitched for Gwinnett, posting a respectful 1.13 WHIP and 3.39 FIP in 21 games, four starts.
With Loe, the Braves have a guy who pitches almost exclusively off his sinker as about three of every four pitches will be a sinking fastball. He compliments that with a breaking ball that some call a curve, some call a slider, others call a slurve. Either way, he drops about 10 mph off his 89 mph sinker and when he doesn't locate the breaking pitch, balls tend to leave the yard far too often. Loe is the kind of guy you take a chance on and hope he is able to spot his pitches at an unsustainable rate and get lucky the hangers don't get pulverized.
Don't expect him to stick around for long, though.
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