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Monday, November 7, 2016

TOT - Braves Sell Off a Hall of Famer

Published on the cover of TIME Magazine. The photograph is not credited
on the cover. - TIME Magazine cover, 9 July 1928. Time magazine archive
Transaction of Today...November 7, 1928 - The Chicago Cubs traded Bruce Cunningham, Percy Jones, Lou Legett, Freddie Maguire, Socks Seibold and $200,000 to the Boston Braves for Rogers Hornsby.

One of the greatest hitters to ever play the game, Rogers Hornsby, or Rajah, was also one of the most blunt. Never one to keep his thoughts hidden to himself or have much diplomacy in the media, Hornsby said whatever was on in his mind at that particular time. He expected greatness from all those around him and his overbearing style often grew tiresome on both his teammates, the players he managed, and especially on his owners and those he played under.

While the old cliche is "those that can't do, teach," Hornsby is another example of the reverse. Often, those that can do so well, cannot teach. Hornsby had climbed to great heights with the Cardinals. His numbers were that of video games. Over a six-year period from 1920 to 1925, Hornsby hit .397/.467/.666. He took over as manager in 1925 for Branch Rickey and guided the Cardinals to a World Series victory the next year despite dealing with a variety of ailments that saw his numbers decline to just .317/.388/.463.

However, his personality had finally led Cardinals owner, Sam Breadon, to look for a way to get rid of his star. He low-balled a contract offer to Hornsby, hoping the 30-year old would become incensed at the offer. Breadon even made it a condition that Horsnby had to stay away from the race track while crossing his fingers that Hornsby would by ready to bolt. He was and Breadon sent the slugger to the New York Giants.

His time with the Giants was short-lived. He feuded with his manager, John McGraw, and Giants fixture Freddie Lindstrom. He also had his troubles off the field with a lawsuit for alleged unpaid horse-race bets and even publicly criticized his new owner. The Giants were ready to end their relationship with Hornsby after just one season and sent him to the Boston Braves.

For Boston, Hornsby continued to excel at the plate. He led the league in hitting for the seventh (and final) time with a .387 batting average. He paired with George Sisler to give the Boston Braves a Hall-of-Fame right-side of the infield, but that wasn't enough to turn this bad team into a contender. Their pitching staff was atrocious and outside of Hornsby, Sisler, and OF Lance Richbourg, Boston's offense was substandard. Even a move of Hornsby to the managerial position did little to improve Boston's chances.

With Boston hemorrhaging money and looking to cut salary - Hornsby's $40K a year price tag was hefty compared to the average - the Braves completed a deal with the Chicago Cubs to send Hornsby to the Windy City in exchange for five players and $200,000. While the date I'm using is from Baseball-Reference, the deal had been rumored since the end of the season. It was pushed back until after the 1928 presidential election. With Herbert Hoover winning in a landslide, the Hornsby transaction could be finalized.

While the Braves received a quantity of players, quality was lacking. Bruce Cunningham was a 23 year-old pitcher who would pitch in 104 games with Boston over the next four seasons with little success. Percy Jones started 22 games for Boston in 1929 before being traded for former Brooklyn great Burleigh Grimes. The latter would become an Hall of Famer, but his 49-inning run with the Braves included a 7.35 ERA. That part of the deal actually worked out okay for Boston because after dealing Grimes to St. Louis, they received Fred Frankhouse, who made an All-Star Game as a Brave.

Catcher Lou Legett played 39 games for Boston in 1929, but was sent packing. He later resurfaced for the cross-town Red Sox, though he never did much at the plate. The most interesting thing about Legett was that he was a dentist before and after his career. He was even President of the New Orleans Dental Society...which is apparently a thing.

Second baseman Freddie McGuire replaced Hornsby at second base and, over three years, hit .249/.280/.313. Hardly a real replacement to Hornsby, but who could be? McGuire's major league career ended after the 1931 season and he finished his career by playing independent ball in Canada. The final player in the trade was Socks Seibold. a pitcher who had last appeared in the majors in 1919 for Connie Mack's Philadelphia Athletics. It was Mack that had given Harry Seibold his nickname. His return to the bigs is pretty interesting in that after Mack sold the rights of Seibold to Seattle in 1920, he began to meander around different independent teams rather than return to affiliated baseball? Was it arm troubles? A hot temper? Not wanting to play for a team he was assigned to? According to Seibold, it was that he made more cash in independent ball than he did in the majors or minors. He returned to organized ball in 1928 and after the season, he was sold to the Cubs, who included him in this trade for Hornsby. Seibold pitched in 141 games for Boston over the next five years before heading into retirement.

None of the five players the Braves acquired for Hornsby were big-time additions. However, there was that bit about the $200,000 in cash that the Cubs sent Boston as part of the trade. Not only did it help Boston with their many debts, it was, at that time, the largest sum ever sent to a team to acquire another player. To compare, when the New York Yankees bought Babe Ruth from the Red Sox, they paid $130,000.

Hornsby had one more great year in him before injuries and age caught up to him. He also moved to a managerial role for the Cubs, but obviously never took them to new heights. He returned to St. Louis in 1933 and would again become a manager, but the Browns never competed with Hornsby at the helm. After his playing days were officially over, he again managed the Browns and then the Reds, but struggled to find success.

Eighty-eight years ago today, the Boston Braves waved goodbye to one of the best hitters to ever play the game. If the news media of the time ever used the phrase "salary dump," that was the only explanation for this deal - even understanding Hornsby' faults as a person.

See Also
TOT - Braves Luck Into A Central Player of the Early 90's
TOT - Braves Opt To Drop Fick
TOT - Braves Trade Al Dark to the Giants. Again.

Is Jason Hammel a Fit for the Braves?

By Julie Fennell on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational
(Crop) [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
As news broke Sunday afternoon that Cubs righty Jason Hammel's option was not going to be picked up by the team, speculation immediately began as to whether or not Hammel will be a Braves target. With that in mind, let's take a deeper look into the veteran hurler.

Who Hammel Is/Isn't 

Hammel is a modern day innings eater. 200+ inning guys are few and far between in the today's age of power bullpens so our expectations are closer to the 170-inning range. Since establishing himself as a major league starter in 2009, Hammel has reached that plateau five times.

It probably tells you a lot about Hammel when the first thing that stands out is durability, but that's what you get out of Hammel. Let's be honest - after using the likes of Roberto Hernandez (Fausto Carmona edition), Lucas Harrell, and Joel De La Cruz last year, is durability such a bad thing? Hammel won't give you a lot of high-end performance, but he also won't embarrass you. Maybe a comparison from modern Braves' history is another former Rockies starter, John Thomson. While Thomson would be limited by injuries during his three-year stay in Atlanta, he came to the Braves as a solid, though largely unremarkable, right-hander.

Hammel works off five pitches, though his changeup is rarely employed. He throws a few more fourseamers to righties and a few more curves to lefties. Overall, he utilizes his fourseamer about 30% of the time and that mark is much higher toward the beginning of the game. Once he's able to spot his heater, he can go to his breaking stuff. His slider has been his most-often used pitch over the last two years (35%) while his sinker is his third most frequent call. He upped his curveball usage last year to about 10%, but it remains a distant fourth offering. The four-seamer and sinker have lost a tick of velocity over the last couple of seasons, but still average close to 93 mph. His slider and change both come in at about 85 mph while his curveball comes at the hitter at about 77 mph as it drops sharply upon arriving.

Hammel has carried a strikeout percentage above his career-average of 18.5% in four-of-the-last-five years and his walk rate in 2016 was around his career norm. Some deeper metrics gave him higher marks last year than he carried the previous two seasons because of some luck stats going in his favor. His BABIP was 32 points below his career norm while his LOB% was about 5% higher than usual. Subsequently, his FIP of 4.48 and xFIP of 4.34 were both three-year highs by a longshot. There's little reason beyond age to not expect some more positive fluctuations in his metrics next year and there weren't any telling negatives in his plate discipline stats like Zone% and Contact% to be concerned about.

It's worth mentioning that Hammel finished poorly in 2016 with a 8.35 ERA over his final seven starts. This contributed to him being left off the Cubs' postseason roster. It's also worth noting that 2016 was the third consecutive season where Hammel's performance dipped in the second half according to ERA. Over the last three years, Hammel has a 3.63 FIP and 3.61 xFIP in the first half compared to a 4.65 FIP and 4.07 FIP in the second half. It less pronounced in 2016, though. In fact, if you strip away ERA from the conversation, there was no real difference between the halves in performance. His ERA climbing seems a product of BABIP and LOB% regressing to the mean more so than anything.

With Hammel, I don't believe the floor is much lower than what we saw last year from him. The ceiling may not be much higher, but he did pitch better recently (2014-15). He's going to get decent numbers across the board and will be saddled with his fair share of homers. Because he won't hurt himself with walks, a lot of those homers will be solo shots and he'll work around them. Like I said, he's no great shakes, but he is still a quality option who has been durable enough to stay on the mound every fifth day.

How Much?

Let's take a look at last year's free agent class for an idea of what kind of salary and commitment the Braves would have to consider. Hammel enters this winter with 5.5 fWAR over the last three years. While I do realize there is a lot more to take into account than just that one statistic, it may give us a baseline to help with our projection. The following four contracts went to starting pitchers with a similar fWAR entering the winter of 2015.

Yovani Gallardo, 6.5 fWAR...2 years, $22M, $11M AAV
Mike Leake, 6.0 fWAR...5 years, $80M, $16M AAV
J.A. Happ, 5.4 fWAR...3 years, $36M, $12M AAV
Ian Kennedy, 4.9 fWAR...5 years, $70M, $14M AAV

Amazing that we have gotten to the point where middle-rotation depth costs this much, but here we are. Somewhere between $11M and $16M per year seems like a good range for where to start and end with Hammel negotiations. I'm tempted to eliminate Leake from this comparison, but felt the context might help. As far as years go, 2017 will be Hammel's Age-34 year. That is comparable to Happ, the oldest of the previous list. Yout might think Hammel's declining numbers in 2016 would work against him, but that may not neccesarily be accurate. Kennedy had a similar thing happen to him, but the Royals still paid him handsomely and Kennedy's durability was a key factor for Kansas City.

The Braves cannot get tunnel vision with Hammel. While arguibly the best starter on the free agent market, is Hammel that much better than Edinson Volquez ? Jeremy Hellickson? Andrew Cashner? Not enough to warrant big-time cash for a small time player. While Hammel is a great fit for the Braves, the qualities that make him a great fit for Atlanta also make him a great fit for other teams.

If it were me, my offer would be something like an average of $12 million for two seasons plus a third year option and incentives. That leaves a little wiggle room to increase the base salary some in negoiations and maybe promise a third year, but $39M total over three years is roughly my ceiling. Beyond that and you are really getting into paying too much for too little return.

What say you? Is Hammel worth the investment? Comment below.

See Also

2016 Player Reviews: Joel De La Cruz, Tyler Flowers, Mike Foltynewicz
Braves Can McDowell
Random Ex-Brave: John Thomson

Sunday, November 6, 2016

TOT - Braves Luck Into A Central Player of the Early 90's

Transaction of Today...November 6, 1989 - The Atlanta Braves sign catcher Greg Olson.

Sometimes, a team stumbles on the right player at the right time. And sometimes, things just work themselves out just right.

Bobby Cox, the then-General Manager of the Atlanta Braves, had a problem behind the plate as he started to look toward the 1990 season. Bruce Benedict's best days were way behind him. Since making an All-Star team in 1983, Benedict had hit .213/.293/.262 over the next six seasons and his career was essentially over. The latest addition brought in to help out behind the plate, Jody Davis, had done little to fix things.

Cox brought in Olson to help out, but he wasn't supposed to be the guy in 1989 - unless you count being the guy at Richmond a thing. Cox was enamored with Phil Lombardi, a 26 year-old catcher who had hit .261/.364/.412 for Tidewater, the AAA squad of the New York Mets. Late in spring training, Cox added Lombardi and was ready to hand things over to him. The Braves still had Davis and John Russell, a third backstop that split time from their 1989 team. They also added 38 year-old Ernie Whitt a month after signing Olson. By the end of camp, Olson was ticketed for a trip to the minors and as was Russell, but the latter had the right to refuse the assignment and became a free agent after doing so. Olson reported to Richmond, but his stay there would be short. Shortly before the beginning of the season, Lombardi retired due to the pressures of the game. With the Braves less-than-thrilled with their combo of Davis and Whitt, they would call up Olson after just three games in the minors.

It was Olson's ninth year of professional baseball after being selected by the New York Mets in the 7th round of the 1982 draft. He had been an infielder before being moved behind the plate after hot-shot recruit Terry Steinbach enrolled at Minnesota. Of course, Steinbach would later move behind the plate and became a fixture of some good Oakland Athletics teams. Olson would play regularly as a freshman and would later become an All-Big-Team player for the Gophers. He attracted the eye of Terry Ryan, the director of Midwest Scouting for the Mets and the future long-time general manager of the Twins, who lobbied for the Mets to draft the backstop.

Upon joining the Mets, Olson played two seasons for Lynchburg, a future home of the Braves. The second season was spent as one of the first catchers for the new phenom, Dwight Gooden. Olson's climb up the ladder was slow and he never really earned much prospect status. He was a strong defensive catcher, that was true, but his bat was nearly non-existent. After the Mets added Gary Carter in 1985, Olson was effectively blocked anyway.

After 1988, Olson became a free agent for the first time and went home to Minnesota to join the Twins. Again, Olson flashed his strong defensive skills, but could not beat out Brian Harper for the #2 catcher job that spring. He opened the year in Portland, though he later earned a callup toward the end of June. It was less his production at the plate and more an injury that got him to the bigs. He only appeared in three games during his first stint in the majors, but he did get his first major league hit - a single off Angels closer Bryan Harvey.

That brings us to 1989 and signing with the Braves. After his callup to the Braves, Olson rarely played behind the veterans Whitt and Davis at first, but a pairing with Tom Glavine worked out well for the duo and he quickly became Glavine's personal catcher. He flashed some stick as well and when the Braves decided by mid-May that three catchers was one too many, it was Olson who stayed as Davis was released. Olson became Whitt's platooning partner before ultimately taking over the job after the latter went on the DL by the end of May.

The minor league journeyman took advantage of the situation. He hit .293/.379/.534 that May with four homeruns, He would continue to perform in June, adding a Grand Slam against the Reds on June 12 to his accomplishments. By the end of June, Olson was riding a .299/.381/.456 triple slash and with the Braves needing a representative in the All-Star Game, Olson headed to Wrigley Field as the first Braves rookie to go to an All-Star Game in over 20 years. He would go hitless against Chuck Finley in his only All-Star appearance.

Amazingly, a month later, Cox, who had replaced Russ Nixon as the Braves manager in mid-June, began to to go back to Whitt as his starting catcher after the latter returned from the DL. In late September, he played Kelly Mann and Jimmy Kremers, two young backstops Cox wanted a look at. Olson would play just 100 games with 332 PA in 1990, but did slash .262/.332/.379 - his best offensive season.

Of course, things shined bright on Olson in 1991. The Braves never found an effective replacement to him and Olson became the full-time starter for the Worst-to-First squad as he handled their young trio of elite starters. He hit just .241/.316/.345, but was lauded for his role in developing and working with the Braves' pitchers. He became such a trusted captain on the field that over a 32-game stretch from September 1 to October 5, he caught all but two innings. Olson would have his moment with the bat in the playoffs as well. In a scoreless battle between Steve Avery and Doug Drabek in Game Six of the NLCS, Olson doubled in Ron Gant in the ninth inning for the game's only run. A day later, the Braves beat the Pirates to go to the World Series. In the first game of that series, Olson was involved in a home plate collision with Dan Gladden. The force of the collision caused Olson to do a backwards somersault, but he held on to the ball for the out.

Olson's third season in Atlanta would continue a downward trend with his numbers. Atlanta paired Olson up with Damon Berryhill, who was not a very good hitter, but did belt 10 homers during the season. On September 18, Olson's season came to a close after his right leg was destroyed during a home-plate collision with Ken Caminiti. As he was carted off, Olson did the Tomahawk Chop in front of the packed Atlanta-Fulton County Stadium crowd.

The fan favorite backstop would return in 1993, bu saw his statistics continue to decline. For the first time since his arrival in 1990, Olson was not the primary catcher as Berryhill received more starts. A month on the DL for Olson helped to make that a reality, but Berryhill still got all but one of the starts in the NLCS against the Phillies.

Atlanta could have brought the arbitration-eligible Olson back for 1994, but they had an upgrade waiting in the wings. Javy Lopez had joined the team for September in both of the previous two seasons and was ready to take over at catcher. The Braves added Charlie O'Brien from the Mets at half of the price that Olson would have cost and non-tendered Olson. The Minnesota native went to Flushing to replace O'Brien, but was beat out by Kelly Stinnett for the job. While he could have continued his career elsewhere as a depth option in Triple-A, Olson was ready to retire and did so.

He quickly landed a job as the manager of the Minneapolis Loons, an independent squad in the North Central League. In a fun twist, he was the manager of former battery mate Juan Berenguer. Also on that team was a righty and Gopher alum, Kerry Ligtenberg. Olson had seen enough major league talent up close to know Ligtenberg was special enough to deserve a chance. He convinced Atlanta to take a look at the right-hander and Olson negotiated a trade that benefited both sides. The Braves got an electric arm and Olson received six dozen baseballs and several bats.

After the Loons folded, Olson would later get into real estate the Eden Prairie, Minnesota area and is the general manager of a golf and country club. He continues to make appearances both for the Twins and the Braves.

See Also
Random Ex-Brave of the Day - Kerry Ligtenberg
Random Ex-Brave: Javy Lopez
Thursday Throwback - Juan Berenguer

2016 Player Reviews: Jose Ramirez, Anthony Recker, Paco Rodriguez

This is the eleventh edition of the 2016 Player Reviews. My quick math tells me that I've done 33 little blurbs about players from last year's team who could return in 2017. A dozen remain. Hopefully, next year, the Braves don't use more players than the Falcons so I don't have to do this again.

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017.

Jose Ramirez, RHP, 27 years-old

2016 Review: The major league season is long. From the point pitchers report to camp in February until a hopeful trip to postseason play in October, a lot can happen. For Ramirez, he was given a chance to right the ship and finished strong to keep him in Atlanta's plans for 2017. Out-of-options, Ramirez opened the year with the major league team, but after two appearances in which 9-of-15 batters faced reached base, the Braves decided they had already seen enough and banished Ramirez to the minors. It was a quick decision, but he had walked four over just two innings of work. He posted some big strikeout numbers upon his arrival in Gwinnett, but continued to walk a lot of batters as well. The Gwinnett and minor league coaches continued to work with him and over a two-month period, Ramirez walked just 8 over 25.1 innings. With the Braves' bullpen getting a trade deadline remodel, Ramirez returned to the majors near the tail-end of July. His control wasn't as pin-point as it had been in Gwinnett, but it was much improved and he logged an impressive 30.2 innings down the stretch.

2017 Projection: One change that was evident with Ramirez once he returned to the majors was that his release point was a little lower, giving him a bit more pronounced three-quarter's delivery. It also gave him better heat and the ability to throw first-pitch strikes. The Braves pushed Ramirez to nearly drop his changeup in favor of a bigger use of his hard slider. The results were solid and Ramirez will have a shot to win a spot in next year's pen. Now, there are some concerning issues with Ramirez. While he lowered his FIP to 3.94 by year's end, that was nearly a run lower than his expected FIP. Part of that was due to an unusually low amount of homeruns (5.4% per flyball). That is unlikely to continue and even though Ramirez's control was better, a 12.6% rate is still 4% above average. There are some things here to really like, but there are some problematic pitfalls to deal with as well. Ramirez will be 27 when the 2017 season opens. Power arms will always have a shot to turn the corner and Atlanta is hoping Chuck Hernandez and the new Braves pitching gurus can work some magic with Ramirez.

Anthony Recker, C, 33 years-old

2016 Review: BABIP is a fun stat. Heading into this season, Recker had a BABIP of .249. It was a testament to how bad of a hitter Recker had been. Then, over a 33-game run after getting the callup to Atlanta, Recker's BABIP jumped nearly hundred points and suddenly, he had a triple slash of .278/.394/.433. It was pretty surprising since his minor league numbers weren't nearly that impressive either. Also astounding was how he shaved 10% off his K% and re-purposed about 5% to his walk rate (not sure how one does that, but Recker's special).

2017 Projection: Okay, Recker didn't suddenly turn into a hitting God overnight. He simply did not have enough time for his numbers to regress to the mean. Expecting the now 33 year-old with a career 1.8 fWAR to have a 2016-like encore performance would be a bit much. Recker's not bad as far as depth goes, but the Braves will likely non-tender him rather than go through arbitration and offer him a return trip via a minor league contract. He may take his chances elsewhere and if he does, do not fret. If his numbers regress - and they will - you are left with an okayish backstop with poor pitch framing metrics, decent walk numbers, and a bit of pop. It's not the worst guy to stash at Triple-A, but the Braves should do better for their major league team.

By Keith Allison from Owings Mills, USA (Paco Rodriguez)
[CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Paco Rodriguez, LHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: Acquired in the Alex Wood/Hector Olivera trade in July of 2015, the Braves had hoped that Rodriguez, who was rehabbing from bone spurs removal surgery at the time, would eventually play a role for the team by September that year. Instead, he would undergo Tommy John surgery and missed all of 2016 as he rehabbed from the operation.

2017 Projection: In Rodriguez, the Braves have a quality arm with already 124 games of major league experience since being picked in the second round of the 2012 draft. Righties struggle against him while lefties are a lost cause (a career split of .174/.245/.234 with 4.8 K/BB). Overall, Rodriguez had a career FIP/xFIP of 2.98/3.00 before injuries put him on the shelf. A rarity for a reliever, Rodriguez utilizes three pitches with regularity including a sinker that he can run in at about 90 mph if healthy and an 86-88 mph cutter along with an 80 mph slider. He even sprinkles in a four-seamer and circle change at times to keep righties off balance. If he's back, the Braves have a crafty lefty who can give the team more productivity than simply getting left-handed batters out. Atlanta might try to baby him, especially early on, and try to avoid back-to-back's, but provided he's good to go in 2017, he'll be an integral part to the revamped and improved 2017 Atlanta bullpen.

See Also
Transaction Tuesday: Recker, Adonis, Minter, Yepez
Reviewing Hart's Trades: The Hector Olivera Leap of Faith
What Can the Braves Learn from the Cubs?

Saturday, November 5, 2016

TOT - Braves Opt To Drop Fick

By jasonippolito (originally posted to Flickr as Fick)
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Common
s
Transaction of Today...November 5, 2003 - The Atlanta Braves released Robert Fick.

Before the 2003 season, the Atlanta Braves were looking to add another bat to their lineup. It would become one of the best offenses in Braves' history, but while many teams had a big bopper at first base, the Braves scratched together a trio to fill in. They brought back their quasi-platoon from the previous season, Julio Franco and Matt Franco (no relation). The duo had been great in '02 and were mostly responsible for that season's triple slash of .283/.349/.419 from first basemen.

While both of the Franco's were solid contributors in '02, only four teams hit fewer than the 18 homeruns Braves 1B hit that season. The Braves saw an opportunity to add to that total and landed on Robert Fick, a converted catcher who had been with the Tigers organization since being drafted in the fifth round of the 1996 draft. He established himself over 2001-02 with a .271/.334/.451 slash in over 1000 plate appearances with 97 extra-base hits, including 36 homeruns. With the Tigers looking to save money, they non-tendered Fick, who they had used as a right fielder in 2002. Because of the "every team gets represented" rule in the All-Star Game, Fick was Detroit's lone All-Star in '02 and scored the tying run in a game that ended in a 7-7 tie.

Fick was one of two options the Braves were considering. The other was another player who was non-tendered by an AL Central team, David Ortiz. While Ortiz was easily the better option at the plate, Atlanta felt Fick would have the better glove and ultimately went in that direction. Of course, had they been more aggressive in their pursuit for Ortiz, it's intriguing to wonder just how much baseball history since 2003 would have been altered.

The Braves didn't need a lot out of Fick, who opened the year as the #2 hitter. He quickly was moved down in the order after Marcus Giles opened the year strong and the former Tiger settled into the sixth spot. It was a great place to hit, by the way. In addition to the young and productive duo of Rafael Furcal and Giles at the top of the lineup, the heart of the order included the outfield of Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, and Andruw Jones. Fick would also hit in front of Javy Lopez, who belted 43 homers.

Fick would lose a good amount of playing time to Julio Franco, who hit .294/.372/.452 as Fick's caddy against left-handers. Fick still under-performed to what the expectations for him were, slashing .269/.335/.418 for the Braves with 11 homers. Despite being the higher sought-after free agent for his glove over Ortiz, Fick was a disappointment defensively and is tied for the most errors by a Braves first baseman in a single season during the last 25 years.

The Braves would win another division title and faced the Chicago Cubs in the NLDS. It's unlikely that Fick would have been brought back after his underwhelming season in '03, but it's safe to say what happened in Game 4 of the NLDS ensured that his time as a Brave was over. After pinch hitting in the 8th inning, Fick tried to put a bunt down. Kyle Farnsworth fielded the ball and threw to first base. In what he later called a case of "[bleeping] baseball," Fick clubbed the glove-hand of Eric Karros as he tried to jar the baseball loose. He was both out and later fined by not only the league, but by Bobby Cox and the Braves. Fick would never apologize for the action.

Thirteen years ago today, the Braves waved goodbye to Fick. The decision was not based solely on Fick's performance and actions during the playoffs. Atlanta also had Adam LaRoche coming up and he would join Julio Franco as Atlanta's first-base tandem in 2004. Fick would play four more years in the majors, but his time as a full-time was over after the Braves cut him. He made a comeback in 2009 for the Orange County Flyers of the independent Golden Baseball League, but that was short-lived.

Since retiring, Fick has tried his hand at both being an agent and a coach.

2016 Player Reviews: Williams Perez, Jace Peterson, A.J. Pierzynski

The World Series is over and free agency is just about to hit in earnest and I'm still trying to finish off these reviews. Hey, progress is progress, right?

Did you miss the last edition? I got your back. Want to catch up on all of the series? I have you covered as well.

*Ages reflect the player's age on opening day, 2017

Williams Perez, RHP, 25 years-old

2016 Review: For the second consecutive year, Perez was in the mix, but injuries limited him to just 84 innings overall. In some ways, that was 84 too many. While he threw a little less than half of the major league innings he threw in 2015, Perez was essentially the same pitcher as far as FIP goes. He was a bit unlucky (58% LOB%) which contributed to an ERA over 6. We also saw Perez change up his pitch selection this season and utilize a four-seamer to keep batters from keying in on his sinker too much.

2017 Projection: The problem for Perez is not new. It has followed him throughout his young career. We know he can throw strikes and induce his fair share of groundballs, but does he have the ability to get the ball past hitters? In the majors, the answer seems to be no. Roughly 10% of all pitches thrown toward hitters become swinging strikes. For Perez, that mark is about 6%. To put that in perspective - over the last two seasons, only six pitchers have 150 innings in the majors and a worse swinging strike percentage. That's not enough to keep a pitcher from being successful, but it certainly doesn't make things any easier. Pitching to contact is not a terrible strategy, especially for a sinker baller, but major league hitters are much better at pounding mistakes than minor league hitters. Perez is a decent depth guy, but short of developing a plus pitch that he can get whiffs on, his value should be limited to emergency starts when he makes the short trip over from Gwinnett.

By slgckgc on Flickr (Original version) UCinternational (Crop)
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Jace Peterson, 2B, 26 years-old

2016 Review: Year 2 of #JaceOnBase saw Peterson reach base at a much higher rate (.350 to .314) with the help of an improved walk rate (+3.4% compared to 2015). While that pushed Jace's numbers up a bit, he still lagged well behind the major league average for second basemen. It's worth mentioning that his full-season stats include an awful start that prompted the Braves to demote him to Gwinnett after 21 games in which Peterson slashed .182/.260/.205. After returning, Peterson slashed .265/.362/.389 over the remaining 94 games. That's definitely something to build upon. Expected to have a future role as a plus utility player, Peterson picked up a start at third and one in center field - along with nearly a dozen in left field. After solid, though unspectacular, defensive metrics in 2015, Peterson's numbers at second looked pretty ugly. I tend to believe that is more statistical variation than actual performance and I'm comfortable saying that Jace is an average defender at second. Nothing special, but likely not a defensive issue to concern yourself with.

2017 Projection: Peterson is a fine stopgap at second base, especially if the Braves bring in someone to protect Peterson from seeing too many southpaws. Against lefties, Peterson has hit a miserable .214/.269/.268 with just one of his career 13 homeruns. Paired with a better option than Gordon Beckham or Chase d'Arnaud, Peterson could keep second base warm until Ozzie Albies arrives in the majors. The Braves could certainly do better than Peterson, but with Albies hopefully on his way to Atlanta sometime next summer, is it worth the effort to try to improve second base? Probably not, though, like I said, a better platoon partner would be helpful.

A.J. Pierzynski, C, 40-years old

2016 Review: That fountain of youth he found in 2015 dried up in 2016 and the fall from grace was epic. A year after slashing .300/.339/.430, Pierzynski struggled to the tune of .219/.243/.304. He went from a 111 wRC+ to a 41. His wOBA fell nearly 80 points. Eventually, the Braves moved onto Tyler Flowers full-time before sending Pierzynski to the DL. He returned briefly in September, but again hit the DL to end the season.

2017 Projection: Is there much to project? Will he officially retire? He'll have a tough time finding a team at the age of 40 that's interested in a catcher who couldn't even on-base his weight last year. The Braves certainly won't be too keen on a reunion so it would seem to be time for Pierzysnki and the $64 million and change he has earned over his career to head home.

Thursday, November 3, 2016

What Can the Braves Learn from the Cubs?

Swanson's Defense Important as Braves
Focus on Run Prevention

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
The World Series came to a close last night and what a Series it was! Just to put a cherry on top, Game Seven was one of the most captivating games ever played. Congratulations to both teams for reminding the country just how close to perfect baseball can be.

For the Braves, the end of the Fall Classic means we can flip to the Hot Stove Season. With a move to a new ballpark on the horizon along with a slew of young players moving through the minors to join the big league club, this offseason will be pivotal if the Braves want to make it to the playoffs for the first time in four years.

Baseball, like all sports, is a game in which success is copied. When moneyball was popularized by the A's, a cascade of teams tried to follow suit. When the Royals rode a bullpen to championship heights, teams tried to build a replica of their own and paid hefty prices in cash and/or prospects - including both teams in the World Series.

There is a lot to learn about the Cubs that can be applied to other teams, but one of the biggest differences in the series might have gone a bit under-the-radar. Sure, the bullpens and their usage was heavily digested. As was the differences between the rotations and lineups. For me, though, one of the clearest differences between the two teams was in defense and run prevention.

Take a look at Game Six. After Kris Bryant quickly put the Cubs ahead 1-0, Chicago followed with a pair of sharp singles. Josh Tomlin, a 1 fWAR guy with a 4.88 FIP during the regular season, went 1-1 on Addison Russell. What would happen next would carry more weight according to Win Probability than even Russell's later Grand Slam. Russell sent a flyball to the right-center gap. Tyler Naquin was a 25-year rookie this season who was not expected to play much of a role, but injuries and his own success changed that. He was in center field rushing toward the gap while Lonnie Chisenhall was coming from his place in right field. A six year veteran, Chisenhall had been moved to the outfield during the 2015 season after failing to establish himself as a competent third baseman in the major leagues. He even started a game in center field this season.

There remains confusion as to what happened next as the ball came down. Naquin said both called it, Chisenhall contends neither did it, and Terry Francona asserts that Naquin told Chisenhall to take it. Whatever the case, a rookie center fielder saw a converted third baseman fly in front of him and a ball drop to the ground between the two of them. Called a double because the error statistic is worthless, two runs scored and Russell ended up on third via an error that was called when a Jason Kipnis throw to the plate got away.

The defensive miscues continued in Game Seven. With a pair of runners on and no outs in the fourth, Ben Zobrist hit a grounder to first. To be clear, it would have been tough to turn a double play, but it nearly turned into no outs as Mike Napoli, a converted catcher, threw high-and-wide to shortstop. They got the one out, but had no chance for a double play. That left the opportunity for Russell to send a flyball to left-center. Again, it seemed the outfielders were not communicating or not keeping their heads in the game. Rajai Davis called for the ball, but never got into prime position to fire the ball home. All the while, left-fielder Coco Crisp was almost crowding Davis, who paused to gather himself after catching the ball before firing home to try to cut the runner down at the plate. His throw, like Napoli's, was high. This time, the runner was safe.

These are just a few of the most high profile situations during this series where the Indians failed to make a play, but it also points toward the differences in the two teams and it's even more evident in the regular season metrics. It's not that the Indians were necessarily bad defensively like the Braves were - just that the Indians were not very good. They were the Vinny Castilla of teams. They made most of the plays they ought to, but while the Cubs had 82 defensive runs scored (DRS), the Indians had just 17. While the Cubs had a Plus/Minus Runs Saved (rPM) of +99, the Indians were just +7.

Cleveland had just three players in their lineup with a composite defensive runs above average (DEF) of 5 or higher. While they had probably the best defensive player in the series in Francisco Lindor, the Cubs had 5 DEF or better guys at catcher, second base, shortstop, third base, and right field. Their worst defensive player, according to the metric DEF, was Anthony Rizzo, who played the least important defensive position and was still rated much better than his compliment on the Indians, the aforementioned Napoli.

None of this kept the Indians from being one game away from winning the World Series three times. The Cubs had their own issues, especially with depth in their lineup. Russell and Javier Baez, while both certainly did some nice things this year, had a .316 wOBA. Of course, a mark like that would have made Jason Heyward thrilled. While the Cubs offense was explosive, it also had issues and the Indians were able to exploit that during the Series at various times. Their bullpen depth was also not as strong as the Indians, though really, I felt that was splitting hairs because Chicago still had some really good arms in the pen.

Chicago's pitching staff was good, but not nearly as good as the results indicated. Kyle Hendricks had a 3.20 FIP and a 3.59 xFIP to go with his 2.13 ERA. Jon Lester had a 3.41 FIP and a 3.47 xFIP to go with his 2.44 ERA. The rest of the starting staff had similar, though less stark, differences that each saw their ERAs look much nicer than their FIP or xFIP. The Indians had some small positive differences or flatout reverse differences. Trevor Bauer's ERA was higher than both metrics while Tomlin's xFIP was .27 points lower than his ERA. However, most of the time, the differences were minor and suggested that the pitcher's ERA was rather close to his performance.

No team came close to the difference between ERA and FIP like the Cubs (-0.62 when ERA-FIP). It's the largest gap in which the ERA is lower than the FIP since the 2002 Atlanta Braves. That's not to say the Cubs weren't a great pitching team - they were. They had a strong collection of pitching talent that was magnified by the strongest defense in the league. The Indians, with a simply good defense, had a ERA/FIP difference of -0.06, which ranked 15th in baseball.

Run Prevention doesn't just fall on the pitchers and as the Braves look to the future, it's important to remember that. If the Braves want to follow anything the Cubs did as they ended their long-lasting streak of championship-less years, a focus on run prevention would go a long way to helping Atlanta get back to the playoffs and succeed.