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Saturday, June 4, 2016

Minor League Stats Pack - Newcomb, Whalen, Toscano, Davidson

Here is this week's Saturday Stats Pack for the minor league Braves. Feel free to add to this post through the comment section with some interesting numbers I've missed.

Ken Lund via Flickr - Creative Commons License
Newcomb Heating Up

In a year of uneven performances, things are clicking for Sean Newcomb over his last two starts. In 11 innings, he has allowed just two runs, four walks, and 12 strikeouts. 61% of his pitches have gone for strikes during that time frame. If we can start to see more strikes out of Newcomb, the hope that he remains in the starting rotation increases. One thing's for certain - he is a weapon against lefthanders. They have managed just seven singles off the southpaw in 49 plate appearances. 35% of those appearances have ended in a strikeout.

Whalen Finding His Groove

While John Gant has already appeared in the majors out of the Juan Uribe/Kelly Johnson deal last summer, Robert Whalen was the higher-regarded prospect at the time of the trade. His work of late has shown exactly why. Over his last six starts, he has allowed an earned run or less in five of them. His average game score for those outings is 59 - which is dragged down significantly by a 34 mixed in there. Whalen might not enter any Top 10's for the system, but he's a pitcher worth watching as 2016 continues.

For Toscano, 2016 Has Not Been Worth the Wait

On one hand, it's an improvement for the Braves to even see 27 year-old Dian Toscano on the field after VISA issues wiped out his 2015 season. However, the Cuban defectee has been thoroughly underwhelming for Mississippi this year, slashing just .228/.302/.289 over 40 games. The dream was that Toscano had the upside of a second-division starter in the outfield, but the fallback of a fourth outfielder appears - for now - to be a fantasy as well.

Braxton Starting to Get It

It wouldn't be accurate to label Braxton Davidson's season anything but disappointing. Nevertheless, the 20 year-old has shown improvement after slashing .172/.245/.276 over his first 24 games. In the next batch of two-dozen games, Davidson has improved to the tune of a .253/.358/.342 slash. Now, that is hardly outstanding numbers, but we are starting to see progression, which is the most important thing for Davidson at this point. Not for nothing, but the next time Davidson faces a pitcher younger than him, it'll be the first time in two years. Remember that the next time anyone refers to the 19 year-old as a bust.

Runners of the South Atlantic League: Beware!

The duo of Lucas Herbert and Jonathan Morales have done a great job this year for Rome. One catches while the other DH's. It keeps both in the lineup almost every day. Herbert's bat hasn't been a plus this year and Morales has cooled off after a scorching beginning to the year, but even if they're not producing tremendously at the plate, they are doing the duty behind it. Herbert, who was drafted because of his work behind the plate, has not disappointed. Morales's defense has been a bit of surprise and together, both have dominated the South Atlantic League baserunners. 43% of those that have tried to steal on Herbert have been caught. For Morales, it's 20-of-41 (49%). The league average is 33% and the Rome Braves are bringing up the curve.

Minter Rolling

Limited to just 58 innings in college and no innings after being drafted last summer out of Texas A&M, A.J. Minter didn't pitch this season in a game until May 5. Since getting into game action, Minter has been on fire. After 6.2 scoreless innings with Rome to begin his professional career, he was promoted to Carolina. In two games there, Minter added 3.1 scoreless. Overall, he is up to ten innings, two hits allowed, three walks, and 11 K's. The potential bad news is that he was moved down to Danville on June 1st. This may have been an administrative move to limit his innings. There also exists the possibility that Minter is attracting trade interest and the Braves don't want to chance his health. Either way, the results on the mound have gave the Braves some validation for drafting him in the second round.

Braves Saturday Stats Pack - Mallex, Flowers, Teheran, Vizzy

Back by no demand is this week's Saturday Stats Pack. Later on this afternoon, expect a minor league version of this series. Just a reminder that when I use Baseball-Reference Play Index, the data goes back to 1913 in many cases.

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons
A Different 20/20 Club

No one doubts that Mallex Smith is a fast baserunner, but with a 50% stolen base rate in his first 14 attempts, he has been as much of a problem when taking off as he has been an asset. It got me thinking - what is the most stolen base attempts by a player with a 50% success rate? That honor belongs to George Grantham in 1924, who was caught in half of his 42 attempts. Grantham would never again steal more than 14 bases. Perhaps his manager thought "that'll do." Grantham's 50% mark in at least 40 attempts isn't the worst in history, by the way. That distinction belongs to Pat Duncan, who, in 1922, was caught in 28-of-40 attempts for the Reds.

Another Power Outage Note

Currently, 18 players have at least 100 plate appearances in 2016 and have hit zero homeruns. 22%, or four total, have done their lack of damage with the Braves. They include Erick Aybar, Ender Inciarte, A.J. Pierzynski, and Daniel Castro. If he gets 31 more at-bats before homering, Chase d'Arnaud has a chance to make it five. Let's hope that doesn't happen.

Tyler Hits It Hard, Not High

If you are looking for bright spots this year for the Braves, you would find one in Tyler Flowers. While he has had to share time with Pierzynski because the Braves hate nice things, Flowers has slashed .253/.360/.347 in 111 PA. If that doesn't seem great to you, it's probably because it really isn't. If it does seem great to you, then you are probably a Braves fan and you realize that a .708 OPS places Flowers among the top hitters on the team. Flowers has also done a great job putting velocity on the ball. No other Brave can match his 94.3 mph average exit velocity, good for a spot in the Top 20 in baseball using MLB Statcast. However, with a level swing, Flowers rarely puts a lot of air under the ball. The average launch angle is just 7.1 feet while the average height is 26 feet, marks that are backed up by just a 31.7% flyball rate. But who cares when he has a 20% line-drive rate?

You Had One Job!

Ian Krol's call-up was met with eye-rolling, but so far - so good. Yes, righties are teeing off him, but the one job Krol was supposed to fill this season after being acquired in the Cameron Maybin deal was to get out lefthanders. In a division with Bryce Harper, Daniel Murphy, Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, and Christian Yelich among others - having a player capable of neutralizing those big boys to some degree is a must. Krol has done that since being called up from Gwinnett. Of the 20 lefties he has faced, only three have reached first base safely (two singles and a HBP). Eight have struck out. Krol might never develop into a true full-inning reliever, but there's always room in a bullpen for a LOOGY.

Teheran's Unusual "Wildness"

Baseball is a quirky game with a collection of stats - some more enlightening than others. One of the least-informative stats might be wild pitches. At a quick glance, it might tell us that the pitcher is prone to wildness, but that's not always the case. Take Julio Teheran, who has thrown a half-dozen wild pitches so far this year. That not only ties him with Pittsburgh's Jon Niese for the most wild pitches in the National League, but Teheran's six wild pitches tie his career record coming into 2016. Not his personal high, but his total of wild pitches in over 600 innings before 2016. Is Teheran struggling with the zone? Not really. His 2.7 BB/9 is right in tune with his career average and his zone rating of 50.3% (PITCHf/x) is as well. But baseball is weird sometimes so instead of a pitch in the dirty getting away from the catcher with nobody on, now there is a runner on and that player advances.

Arodys Time

I am a huge fan of Arodys Vizcaino. Maybe it's because he's the best reliever Atlanta has and nobody else on the team can match his nastiness on the mound. Whatever the reason, I get excited when I see him pitch. Yet, I still am surprised when I look at the MLB Statcast leaderboard and see just where Vizzy's stuff ranks compared to the rest of the league. Nobody throws a harder two-seam fastball than Vizzy's 98.2 mph average velocity heater. It's the third fastest pitch in baseball in terms of average pitch and carries an average spin rate of 2,358 rpm, which compares well to the best pitches in the league. His four-seamer isn't so shabby either (97.3 average mph & 2,418 rpm).

That's it for this week. Hope you enjoyed.

Friday, June 3, 2016

Freddie Freeman's Power Numbers are Fine

Keith Allison via Flickr
Creative Commons
A lot has changed since the average first baseman posted a .207 isolated slugging in the year 2000. First base, like the game in general, has seen a reduction in power numbers that has coincided with a crackdown on performance-enhancing drugs. Subsequently, pitching numbers are through the roof. K's are up nearly 5% since 2000 while the league wOBA has fell 25 points.

This is not news, but our expectations for production at traditionally "slugger" positions like first base has seemingly not evolved. Why do I believe that? One of the common criticisms thrown Freddie Freeman's way is that he lacks the expected power of a first baseman. Sure, if you expect your first baseman to smack 35 homeruns a year, then Freeman absolutely won't reach that arbitrary total for you. But is there any element of truth to the idea that Freeman's power is a concern - especially moving forward into his major deal?

Let's look again at isolated slugging - or ISO. While first basemen still have better power numbers than any other position, it has not been immune to decline. For instance, going back to that .207 ISO in 2000, the average modern first baseman has an ISO in the high .170's since 2011. Now, back to Freeman, whose first full-time season was - interestingly enough - 2011. His career ISO is .181. In a raw power sense, even though he's belted just 113 career homeruns, Freeman's ability to produce extra base hits is right in line with the average first baseman.

However, the Braves didn't pay Freeman a small fortune to be average. Here is where Freeman begins to made roads to showing that he's an above-average option at his position. While Freeman ranks in the 20's among top first baseman in ISO since 2011, he ranks ninth in wOBA - a much more important number as far as offensive production is concerned. In addition to his .361 wOBA, he carries a 130 wRC+, which puts him in line with a group of productive first baseman like Brandon Belt, Chris Davis, and Adrian Gonzalez. Certainly, it's not comparable to Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto, Paul Goldschmidt, or Jose Abreu - but Freeman's offensive numbers are among the best the next group of players can produce.

Fangraphs puts value into dollars and has estimated that Freeman has been worth $113.8M since arriving in the majors. That number takes into account Freeman's overall production and adjusts for position. He is owed $103M through the 2021 season. While he has struggled this season (especially in regards to his contact%), Freeman receives far too much hate for what he brings to the table - often by those that do not adjust their expectations in context to the current baseball product we are watching. When it comes to that, Freeman is one of the Top 10 first baseman in baseball and won't even be 27 until September. There is a good chance he has yet to even reach his prime years.

To borrow from an old meme, Leave Freddie Alone!

Thursday, June 2, 2016

Braves Shift Tyrell to the Pen

By EricEnfermero (Own work) [CC BY-SA 4.0],
via Wikimedia Commons
The Braves knew they had a fun arm in Jonny Venters as he climbed up the ladder before the 2010 season, but the results were simply not there. He gave up too many hits, struck out too few batters, and generally looked like a non-prospect. However, the scouts were sure there was more to Venters than the results. In 2010, he was brought to the majors, moved to the pen, and over the next three years, he had a 2.23 ERA in 230 ballgames.

Could the Braves be thinking something similar with Tyrell Jenkins? It's possible as the Braves move the righty to the bullpen moving forward.

No one has ever doubted Jenkins' athleticism, nor why so many saw potential in his right arm. However, what hasn't added up is the results matching the excitement. Over seven minor league seasons, Jenkins has a 3.77 ERA, a 6.6 K/9, and a 1.9 K/BB rate. The Braves have been able to keep him healthy over the last two years and while his ERA has been solid (3.12 ERA), his metrics have showed little improvement. He too often pitches behind batters, which doesn't help him entice batters to swing at his breaking stuff. This season, he's had just one outing where he has struck out at least six batters. Interestingly, it might have been that outing that influenced the Braves to try him out as a reliever.

In 2016, Jenkins has looked to clean up parts of his game to help him pitch downhill more consistently. The results have been hit-or-miss, but feel for his curveball has been much improved since joining the Braves. That gives him a fastball/curveball mix that could be lethal when Jenkins is not holding back to throw six innings and show hitters something different the second time around. During his May 24th outing where he struck out nine, he used his curveball extremely well and was able to locate his fastball consistently. That fastball has mid-90's velocity when he's letting it fly and can induce a number of grounders.

Jenkins has been a pitch-to-contact guy in the minors, but it seems like he should be so much more. That's why a move to the pen could be what the doctor ordered. Not every starting prospect should be a starter in the majors. Venters would have been a non-factor as a major league starter. Jenkins still may develop into a guy capable of holding down a rotation spot, but the Braves are on the clock. This is Jenkins' second option season. He'll have one more left and what people may forget is that Jenkins does not rank nearly as highly as other Braves' pitching prospects. When he was acquired, sure, he was pretty close to the top pitching prospect the Braves had. There was Lucas Sims and...well, Jenkins. But since then, the Braves have acquired Mike Foltynewicz. And Touki Toussaint. And Max Fried. And...(deep breath)...Matt Wisler, Sean Newcomb, Aaron Blair, Mike Soroka, Kolby Allard, and maybe Riley Pint or Jason Groome.*

* - Check with me next week.

Jenkins is no longer a top pitching prospect in a system rich with pitching. It was fine to see if his trade value as a starter would climb to attract enough attention from outside the organization, but if the Braves are being real about moving forward beyond seeking out more and more prospects, finding a role for Jenkins right now is important. Jenkins could be a fun arm out of the bullpen and considering Atlanta's current collection of AAAA-types and over-the-hill veterans (save Arodys Vizcaino), adding an arm capable of developing into a high-leverage reliever is important as Atlanta tries to show improvement in 2017.

Jenkins could - and should - arrive before then. How quickly will depend on the results he shows coming out of the bullpen. It's easy to like or even love Jenkins, who plays Madden online with Braves fans and has a great social media presence. With any luck, we will also love what he's doing coming out of the Braves' bullpen.

By the way, as @DrewExistsBrave once pointed out, "If Tyrell Jenkins doesn’t run screaming, “TYRELL JENKINS!” out of the bullpen & throw 95mph fastballs into the stands then what’s the point?"

Braves Throw Away the Grill(i)

By Arturo Pardavila III from Hoboken, NJ, USA
[CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
Tuesday's trade of Jason Grilli is reminiscent of the trade of Jhoulys Chacin. The Braves appear to get little out of the trade outside of opening a spot on the 25-man roster from a veteran. The promising results from Mike Foltynewicz and Williams Perez made the Chacin trade a plus for Atlanta. Grilli's immediate replacement is Ryan Weber. That's not quite as exciting.

Signing Grilli was a bit of a surprise in the offseason of 2014-15. After an All-Star campaign in 2013, Grilli had lost his closer job the following year with the Pirates before being pushed to the Angels to end the season. Like Jim Johnson, Grilli was a former closer who could bring the bullpen depth. Unlike the one-year "show me" offer Johnson accepted, Grilli was more desired by the Braves and received at least $8M in guaranteed salary out of the deal with an addition $2.75 million to be earned in 2017 if his option was exercised. Right before his first season with the Braves, Grilli was named closer in the wake of Craig Kimbrel's trade to the Padres.

He was superb from there with a 4.5 K/BB rate over 33.2 innings and 24 saves. It was All-Star-quality first half right up until he hurt his Achilles running toward first base to field a throw on a grounder. It ended his 2015 season and really ended Grilli's run as a top closer. A late start this spring didn't keep him from joining the major league roster, but he blew a save on opening day and would be dinged up for runs on five of his nine April outings. From there, he lost his big innings appointment and rarely worked with a close lead. The fact that the Braves were going with Bud Norris over Grilli is all you need to know.

The trade saved very little in terms of salary as the Blue Jays will merely cover a pro-rated portion of a major league minimum. The Braves received right-hand pitcher Sean Ratcliffe out of the deal. A native to Canada, Ratcliffe was an 18th rounder in 2013 who was known more as a prep catcher than a pitcher. The move to full-time pitcher was difficult on Ratcliffe as he showed little control in two stints in the Gulf Coast League (21 BB to 15 K over 22.1 ING). Hard work led to some clear improvements in 2015. Over 40 innings, he walked just 16 and struck out 30. Over his last eight games, he walked just two in 17.1 innings.

The reason the Jays were in love with his arm was that he can throw hard (mid-90's) with a slider that could be a plus pitch someday. It's a long road to getting a productive arm, but some scout probably liked his potential. A pitcher with his profile has a chance for big strikeout numbers, but that comes with the ability to throw strikes early-and-often in counts. Ratcliffe is not there, yet.

If this trade seems "meh," it's because it is. The Braves received little out of this trade except a live arm with three years of professional experience and no games at full-season A-ball. With that in mind, the Braves probably felt that any offer for Grilli was "good enough." Ratcliffe, like Adam McCreery, gives the Braves another arm with a chance. That's about it.

Tuesday, May 31, 2016

Transaction Tuesday: Thayer, Shae, Parsons, McCreery

These moves cover May 24 to May 30. Check out the previous week's recap.

Gwinnett Braves
Signed: Dale Thayer...For three years, Thayer was an above-average reliever for the Padres, but his numbers fell off the map last year. This year, he appeared in seven ugly games with Tulsa in the Double-A Texas League. Worth a shot, but Thayer is in his age-35 year and unlikely to find much more success during his professional career.

Promoted (from CAR): Stephen Gaylor...A regular in this column, Gaylor picks up a lot of singles and not much else. In 34 games over a trio of minor league stops this year, he's on-based .360 wth 9 steals. He is a fill-in option around the minor league system as needed.

Promoted (from DAN): Jose Ramirez...His demotion to the taxi squad was simply to give him some rest after a 2.2 inning, 46-pitch outing on the 20th. He's turned the corner a bit over his last nine games for Gwinnett with 11.1 inning, one run allowed, and 14 K's. However, his control has been an issue.

Promoted (from DAN): Braeden Schlehuber...Taxi squad move. Nothing more, nothing less.

Optioned: Dario Alvarez...I talked about Alvarez when he was claimed off waivers.

Optioned: Casey Kelly...In three outings this year in the bigs, Kelly has taken it on the chin as a fill-in/long relief option. He's allowed many of the 56 batters he's faced on the year to reach, but he's also done nothing to hurt his chances to stick around. His numbers with Gwinnett have been a mixed bag to this point.

Outrighted: Joel De La Cruz...Twice this season, De La Cruz has been called up to the bigs. Twice, he's been outrighted off the major league roster after never being used in the majors. The righty's numbers this year have not really earned a promotion, but it's still a bit odd to bring up a guy twice and never use him to at least get him a game in the bigs under his umbrella.

Outrighted: Reid Brignac...A long time ago, Brignac was an interesting option. His ability to play multiple positions has kept him in the bigs for nine straight years, but because he has no bat, he has done played more than 46 games in the majors since 2012. This season's 13-game cameo did little to keep Brignac in the majors.

Rehab: Jim Johnson...The Braves chose to not expedite Johnson's arrival in the bigs after trading Jason Grilli Tuesday. Friday looks like his target game. In three rehab outings (twice with Gwinnett), Johnson has thrown three scoreless innings with 3 hits allowed and 3 K's.

DL'd: David Peterson...An 8th rounder in 2012, Peterson had a solid 2015 after opening the year in Carolina and ending the season in Gwinnett. 2016 has not been nearly as positive, though. In 15 games with Gwinnett, Peterson has been hit hard and often (9.17 ERA, 1.5 HR/9) and struggled with his usually pinpoint control (7.1 BB/9 vs. 2 BB/9 last two years). Maybe injury has played a role? Regardless, Peterson is not much of a prospect.

Paternity List: Sean Kazmar...Congrats to Kazmar, who has played 300 games with Gwinnett over the last four years. The nearly 32 year-old appeared in the majors 19 times during 2008 for San Diego and has not been able to get back since.

Mississippi Braves
Rehab: Shae Simmons...The reliever landed with Mississippi seeking his fourth game back as he returns from Tommy John surgery, but some forearm tightness set him back.

Demoted from GWI: Brandon Cunniff...A big find out of the independent leagues, Cuniff pitched 39 times in the majors last year. However, after being a non-factor this spring, he has struggled greatly this year. He's never had great control, but he was always able to get enough K's to carry a 2+ K/BB rate. This year, it was even with Gwinnett (13 of each) in 20.2 innings. Maybe a demotion will be a catalyst for him. In his first game, he gave up a hit and walked one while striking out 4 in two frames.

Carolina Mudcats
Promoted from ROME: Taylor Lewis...A ninth rounder last June, Lewis had a lot of K's, but his numbers weren't overwhelming this year with Rome. Still, the 22 year-old was promoted and in his first two games, he's K'd three in 3.2 scoreless innings while allowing just two baserunners.

Demoted from MIS: Michael O'Neal...A fill-in option for Mississippi, O'Neal returns to Carolina where he has thrown 10 innings with this season. O'Neal spent two years in the Frontier League after being undrafted out of Auburn.

DL'd: Wes Parsons...For while, Parsons looked like the next Brandon Beachy. Undrafted out of a small school, Parsons had a 4.8 K/BB rate over 109.2 innings with Rome in 2013. Unfortunately, since drawing some prospect coverage, Parsons has both struggled when on the mound and struggled to even stay on the mound. He had appeared in eleven games with Carolina so far this year, including 3 starts, and had been hit around a good deal.

Rome Braves
Promoted from DAN: Adam McCreery...Acquired in the Jhoulys Chacin trade, McCreery finally made his 2016 debut with two innings out of the Rome bullpen. He struck out three and walked one. As I mentioned in my previous column about the trade, McCreery has some potential as a left-hand specialist, but with very little upside.

Released: Matt Tellor...It was only a matter of time for Tellor. A tenth rounder in 2014, Tellor had hit .224/.271/.331 as a professional over 607 PA with 170 K's. Limited to only first base, he needed to show a bat - but it never came.

Danville Braves
Demoted from CAR: Zach Quintana...Acquired for Kyle Wren last offseason, Quintana was a nice swingman with Rome last year, but has struggled with Carolina this year. He surrendered just one homer in 2015 and has given up 5 this year.

Demoted to DAN and re-promoted to GWI and re-demoted to DAN: Kanekoa Texeira...Taxi squad central.

GCL Braves
No moves.

DSL Braves
No moves.

Monday, May 30, 2016

Worst 5 Braves Drafts Since 2000 - #4

So far in this series, I've looked at the fifth worst and fifth best drafts since 2000 for the Atlanta Braves. Today, I'll head back to the bad side with a look at the fourth worst Braves draft.

Best/Worst Drafts since 2000
Worst: #5, 2009 | #4, 2004 | #3, 2013 | #2, 2011 | #1, 2001
Best: #5, 2010 | #4, 2015 | #3, 2007 | #2, 2002 | #1, 2000
By elemenous on Flickr (Original version) User
UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0],
via Wikimedia Commons

4th Worst Draft Since 2000...2004

From a talent standpoint, the 2004 draft may be the worst draft Atlanta has had since at least 2000.

But the draft gets a bit of pass because Atlanta's hands were tied by some decisions by John Schuerholz and the big league club. Coming off a 2003 in which Atlanta bashed their way to 101 wins while surrendering 740 runs, the most since 1990, Atlanta tried to reverse course. They waved goodbye to Greg Maddux, but unlike the previous year, they did not offer him arbitration. They also didn't offer arbitration to Gary Sheffield, losing each without any sort of compensation. Meanwhile, they added Paul Byrd and John Thomson on the free agent market. The latter was especially painful as it cost them their first rounder, the 30th overall selection. It's unknown who they would have selected, but my money is on J.P. Howell, taken 31st by the Royals. Atlanta had originally drafted him out of high school in 2001 with a second round selection, but failed to sign him. The next ten picks included lefthander Gio Gonzalez and reliever Huston Street, but very little beyond them.

When all was said and done, Atlanta didn't draft until the final pick of the second round, 71st overall. They went with third baseman Eric Campbell out of Gibson Southern High School in Indiana. A different Eric Campbell would later play for the Mets, but the Eric Campbell the Braves selected failed to make it to the majors during a rocky minor league career.

Every thirty picks, Atlanta added another player - mostly guys you've never heard of. LSU second baseman J.C. Holt was their second rounder followed by righty James Parr, infielder Van Pope, and catcher Clint Sammons. Picks like Johnnie Wiggins, Derrick Arnold, and Jeff Katz were added to the haul, as unimpressive as it was. They finished the first ten rounds with southpaw Brady Endl out of Wisconsin-Whitewater.

14th rounder Mike Rozema, a shortstop out of St. John's, never hit, though his accomplishments of making it to AAA is rare with this group. 17th rounder and Georgia prep start Jon Mark Owings hit .293 with 13 homers for Danville in 2005, but struggled to stay healthy and when he finally did, he struggled to reclaim the glory of his coming out party. Righty Jaime Richmond was selected in the 31st round out of Canada and signed the next season. In 2006, he owned the Appalachain League with a 1.21 ERA in 67 innings with 52 K and 4 BB. Two years later, he was part of the Mark Kotsay trade and by 2010, his career was essentially over.

Atlanta did draft Tyler Flowers in the 27th round out of Blessed Trinity High School (Roswell, Georgia). He declined to sign and attended Chipola College. A year later, the Braves would draft him in the 33rd round and signed him the next season as a draft-and-follow. The Braves also drafted a pair of players near the end of the draft, but each went to college and became richer for it with higher draft spots (Sean Doolittle and Eric Farris).

From the 2004 draft alone, Atlanta drafted just two players that they signed who later reached the majors. Parr pitched 13 times and Sammons played in 31 games. That's it. Again, they get a bit of a pass because they drafted just twice in the first 101 picks and none in the first 70 picks, but that's a pitiful amount of talent to add to the organization. For awhile, Campbell looked like he might develop into a good offensive player for the Braves and possibly save this draft from being such an ugly show. In 2005, he dominated the APPY League, belting 18 homers over 66 games.

But Campbell had a problem. He just didn't give a damn - at least not enough of a damn to put the effort in. He was sent home from his winter league team in Hawaii after what seemed like a solid campaign with Rome in '06 (.296/.335/.517). His numbers flatlined in 2007 with Myrtle Beach before he was suspended and sent him home early. He looked improved in 2008, but dealt with injury issues. After an ugly campaign at the plate in 2009, the Braves cut the cord. Campbell would bounce around for a few years before his career came to an end following a run with Fargo-Moorhead in the independent American Association to end 2012.

Neither Holt or Pope developed into much. Holt was a decent contact guy with average speed while Pope was a great defender without a bat. In 2010, Pope tried to re-invent himself as a reliever, but wasn't able to throw strikes. Even the guys who did get to the majors were never that exciting as prospects. Parr's minor league numbers were never that great, but with bad pitching staffs in need of arms, he made cameos in both 2008 and '09 with the Braves. Last year, he pitched 42 times for Sugar Land in the Atlantic League. Sammons was an all-glove catcher who looked horribly overmatched when he did spend time in the majors.

Overall, 2004 was a failure by the scouting and coaching team, but it's not all their fault. They weren't aided by signing Thomson, nor were they aided by what was a shallow draft. Matt Bush's recent arrival in the majors withstanding, the talent was pretty poor. Only three first rounders have reached 20 bWAR in their career, 3 more in the second round, and not another until sixth round pick Ben Zobrist. It was not a pretty draft and the Braves couldn't help that. Because of that, I only rank this awful mix of players as the fourth worst since 2000.

Still, Parr and Sammons? That's just awful, Schuerholz and Roy Clark.