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Thursday, January 8, 2015

Braves Get a LOOGY!

On Wednesday afternoon, the Atlanta Braves announced that they had signed left-hander Josh Outman to a one-year deal. In addition to replacing Chasen Shreve, who they dealt to the Yankees, and provide cover for the impending trade and/or suckage of Luis Avilan, the Braves acquire a guy with a very suitable name for his job. Provided he does it. Oh, and Fredi Gonzalez uses him properly.

Outman was originally drafted by the Phillies in 2005, but arrived in the majors with the A's after being part of the deal that sent Joe Blanton to Philly. His rookie year of 2009 was cut short by...come on, just guess...he's a Brave and he's a pitcher. What procedure do you think he's had?

After getting back to the majors following his 2009 Tommy John surgery, Outman struggled to reclaim his brief success as a starter for the A's. They sent him packing before the 2012 season to get Seth Smith and almost a year later, the Rockies gave him up for Drew Stubbs. His ERA was solid with Cleveland, but his FIP told another story (2.86 vs. 4.83). The biggest reason for that came down to control. Outman walks opposing hitters at about a 9-and-a-half percent clip, but that mark was north of 13% last season. After demoting him to the minors for two months, the Indians traded him to the Yankees before rosters expanded where he appeared in nine games and faced just 12 batters.

He's a one trick pony, but it's a good trick. Here is his last three years and career marks against lefties.
Year AVG OBP SLG wOBA
2014 .167 .269 .339 .277
2013 .195 .278 .261 .249
2012 .194 .246 .377 .271
Career .183 .254 .283 .243
For Outman to be successful, he has to be used in the one role he's capable of flourishing in. That will fall on Fredi Gonzalez. If Outman does bounce back for a solid 2015 campaign, he might even net a useful prospect.

In a corresponding move, the Braves pushed Tyler Pastornicky out the door. It was only a matter of time, though getting rid of Jose Constanza would appear just as obvious and oh, look, he's still there. Originally acquired during the 2010 season in the Yunel Escobar/Alex Gonzalez deal, "Rev" took over as the placeholder starting shortstop in 2012 out of default as the Braves waited for Andrelton Simmons to be ready. He proved overmatched both in the field and with the bat and was banished to AAA for most of the second half of the season. Over the last two seasons, he has logged less than 50 games in the majors and was going to be out of options provided he failed to secure a spot on the bench this spring. Pastornicky has a career .608 OPS in a little more than 250 PA so it's not out of the realm of possibility that he could become a decent major leaguer. He's going to have to improve his positional flexibility as outside of a few cameos in center field, he has only played the middle of the infield.

Outman for Pastornicky is a win for the 2015 team even if Outman seemed like an unnecessary luxury for a bullpen bursting with potential arms. He'll join Jim Johnson and Jason Grilli as the revamped group that is setting up Craig Kimbrel. James Russell will probably be back as well, though the super active Braves probably are not done. That leaves a group including Michael Kohn, Shae Simmons, Juan Jaime, David Hale, the aforementioned Avilan, and other guys looking to break through such as Brandon Cunniff and Aaron Kurcz.

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

2015 Hall of Fame Ballot

With the voting results being announced later today, I felt it was a good time to provide my ballot. It's a tough, tough year to limit this ballot to only ten players as those left out for PEDs are causing a bloated amount of deserving players to choose from. Plus, ridiculous arbitrary personal rules like "I won't vote for too many people" and "he's not a first ballot guy" and "he pitched during the steroid era" are giving us just way too many great players to choose from. Also, let's be honest, during the 90's and first decade of the 21st century, we witnessed a golden era of baseball. So, with that in mind, my first ballot had 12 players on it. It was difficult, but I was able to slide two off the ballot. There's always next year, I guess.

The guys that were considered, but didn't make the 12

  • Alan Trammell ...I see the impressive numbers, but nothing really stands out to me.
  • Larry Walker ...Truly amazing hitter, but the Coors effect plus health issues keep him off my list.
  • Nomar Garciaparra ...A really great hitter (.313/.361/.521) during an amazing era for shortstops, but didn't do it long enough.
  • Gary Sheffield ...One of a kind hitter with that bat waggle, but his career only makes him a borderline HOF candidate and that's in a lean year, not one like this.
Two that just missed the cut
  • Edgar Martinez ...Is it fair to penalize him because he didn't play defense when he spent his career in the American League? In five years on the ballot, Martinez has yet to pass 40% and actually slumped to only appearing on a quarter of the ballots last year. This puts his ability to be enshrined in Cooperstown at considerable risk. Again, is that fair? He has the marks and did play a quarter of his games in the field. Also hurting Martinez is that he lacks the wow factor. In an era of unrivaled offense, very few of his numbers stand out. They're just consistently great. In a leaner year, he makes my ballot.
  • Mike Mussina ...I don't know if anyone did it more quietly, especially playing so many years in New York, but Mussina deserves a lot more credit than he got. He would be on this ballot of it wasn't so bloated and truly, I have both had him on and off it during writing this article, but Mussina's issue is that while he was consistently great throughout his career, he never stood out. 
My Ballot
  • Pitcher Roger Clemens ...You lose your moral superiority when you glorify Ty Cobb and Mickey Mantle. Clemens was a selfish, ego-driven, douchebag. But he was probably the best pitcher of the last 75 years (Fangraphs has him #1 in WAR). Holding him out to prove a point is worthless. He's third in strikeouts all-time and to take that a next step, of the top 16 in strikeouts, all but five are in Cooperstown. All five should go in ASAP. 
  • Pitcher Randy Johnson ...#2 in strikeouts, Johnson was a freak of nature. No starter qualifies for Fangraphs' leader-boards in K/9 and has a better rate than The Big Unit. He was imposing, tenacious, and most of all - damn good. He struck out over 300 in four consecutive years in an era of pitch counts and five-man rotations. The perfect game he threw against the Braves was one of the few Atlanta loses that you can't even get mad at. We were just lucky to watch him at his best. Plus, with the help of a big catch, he retired Lou Collins in Billy Heywood's last game as a manager.
  • Pitcher Pedro Martinez ...In a word - domination. That is what Pedro's 1999 season should simply be called. The guy posted a 1.39 FIP in 213.1 innings. Since 1911, that FIP is first and you have to go to Dwight Gooden's 1985 to get to second place, 30 points higher. He struck out 13.2 per nine that season. Only the Big Unit's 2001 was higher. And the 11.9 fWAR? Second to Steve Charlton's 1972 season when he posted a 12.1 fWAR. That season alone would have me thinking of giving Pedro a vote, but fortunately, he was dominant in other years. Over a seven year run that began with his final season in Montreal, Pedro posted a 2.20 ERA while offense over the game was seeing record highs. Only three other pitchers had an ERA under 3.00 for that same run. While Kevin Brown's career wasn't Hall-worthy, Greg Maddux is enshrined and the Big Unit will join him. Pretty damn good company.
  • Pitcher Curt Schilling ...He's a dingbat and probably shouldn't use twitter, but on the mound, when he was on, it was a long night for your team. Too often, that seemed to be the Braves. Schilling showed in the playoffs that he was comfortable wrecking havoc on other teams, though. True, we all remember the Bloody Sock, but a 2.23 ERA in 19 starts in the postseason? Jesus, Curt. His in-season numbers aren't as gaudy as others, but they are more than respectable. We often ignore how good he was because he was overshadowed in some degree by pitchers like Johnson in Arizona and Pedro in Boston, but the hitters didn't ignore how good he was. 
  • Pitcher John Smoltz ...It's been a back-and-forth battle with Smoltze and Mussina on my ballot, but I'll give Smoltzie a little extra credit in that at his best, he was as good as they come. Plus, the uniqueness of Smoltz's career gives him a bit more of an edge. As a starter, his 1996 season stands out not only because of the Cy Young he earned, but the amazing 2.64 FIP that led the league, including his two more refined teammates and 2014 inductees into the Hall. As a closer, he finished 8th in the MVP voting and retired as the team leader in saves. And in the postseason...he was a horse. A beast. An absolute joy to watch. 
  • Catcher Mike Piazza ...It amazes me that Piazza still is sitting on the outside of the Hall. He's at least one of the top ten catchers of all time. You can argue that he should be one of the top five, though I'd probably rank him just outside that. If your Hall of Fame is worth anything, the top ten at any given position should be in the Hall if they are eligible. Piazza is entering his third season of eligibility. Just elect the top homerun hitter as a catcher in the history of the game. Sure, he was no Johnny Bench or Carlton Fisk with the glove, but they were no Piazza with the bat either.
  • First Baseman Jeff Bagwell ...Yet another guy hurt by simply playing in the era he did, but the facts are simple. Put his numbers next to just about any 1B to ever play the game, save Lou Gehrig and Jimmie Foxx, and Bags comes up looking pretty good. But because he played during the steroid era, he is entering his fifth year of voting with no certainty that a HOF induction will be in the cards for him. Just do it already.
  • Second Baseman Craig Biggio ...And get this other Killer B in, too. Biggio has been hurt because he was never great enough and seemed to keep playing to get to 3,000 hits. But the numbers are comparable to Roberto Alomar, especially the slash numbers which probably would have been even better had he retired a couple of years before. Alomar's induction was pushed back a year because he spit on an ump. However, if his career was deserving of an induction (even if it had to stupidly wait a year), so is Biggio's
  • Outfielder Barry Bonds ...I get it. We all get it. We all hate it. We hated him when he played. Still, keeping him out is ridiculous at this point. Right this wrong.
  • Outfielder Tim Raines ...And while we are writing wrongs, let's get Raines in. Of the top eleven in fWAR during the 80's as position players, eight have been voted into the Hall. Raines, who ranked ninth and would play 23 years total, should make it nine. His most impressive weapon, his speed, allowed him to steal 808 career bases, joining just three other players with 800 steals. All three are in the Hall. Make it 4-and-4 and elect Raines. 

Monday, January 5, 2015

See ya, Aaron!

It's difficult to write this, but the Braves should have brought back Aaron Harang.

Those words shouldn't go together and by no means do I consider Harang the missing piece to anything, but for a team rebuilding for the future, Harang would have been a great fit. Wait, what? A pitcher that will turn 37 in May is a fit for the future? I'll get to that.

In case you haven't heard, the Phillies signed Harang to a 1 year, $5M contract Monday. The Phillies need starting pitching desperately and adding a veteran who has been fairly durable was a good move for them, though I can't say the same for Harang. He should be building on his 2014 success with the Braves, not potentially minimizing it by taking his flyball pitching profile to a park that historically gives up as many homers as any in the National League. That's not to say Philly is a huge hitter's park. We like to think it is because it plays small and gives up a lot of cheapies, but it's only minimally helpful for the hitter due to the massive alleys. Still, a guy who has historically carried a HR/9 over 1? Ask Joe Blanton how that works out.

Harang would have been better off in a park that doesn't hurt flyball pitchers. Like Turner Field. The Braves would have been better off, too. Look at the rotation Atlanta currently has. It's young and full of questions. Harang wouldn't have been a world beater, but he would have held down the fifth spot without putting undue pressure on Manny Banuelos.

Plus, on a similar one-year pact, the Braves might have been able to turn Harang into a player they can keep long term. If Harang was reasonably successful in the first half, he would have upped his trade value. With an inexpensive contract with no added years, contending teams in need of rotation depth would have been calling like I call the radio station when they are giving away tickets to go see Green Day. Now, granted, Harang won't bring in a top 100 guy, but a borderline C+/B- prospect? Seems realistic.

Nothing ventured, nothing lost, I suppose. And it's not like Harang possesses a particular set of skills that the Braves can't find in a different veteran starter, which they are rumored to have interest in obtaining. Just seemed like a good fit for a reunion. On the plus side, more Harang/Bartolo Colon matchups equals ratings so at least there's that to look forward to.

Reviewing BA's Top Ten: 2004

Once again, it is time to continue the journey through 15 years of Baseball America's Top 10 Braves prospects. This year's list includes nine future major leaguers and six of the famed Baby Braves of 2005. Atlanta would place three players in the overall top 50. Also notable is that all but one of the players that made this list were drafted by the Braves. They hadn't had so much luck in the draft since 1990 when all ten players came out of the draft. To add, the only player who wasn't pdrafted was an international amateur signing that was considered the top prospect in the organization before the 2004 season.

If you'd like to take a view at previous versions of this series, click here.

Atlanta's Top Ten Prospects for 2003 according to Baseball America
1. Andy Marte, 3b - BA Top 100: #11 - Other Years in Braves Top Ten: 2003 (3rd), 2005 (2nd), 2006 (1st)
2. Jeff Francoeur, rf - BA Top 100: #27 - Other Years: 2003 (6th), 2005 (1st)
3. Adam Wainwright, rhp - BA Top 100: #49 - Other Years: 2001 (7th), 2002 (2nd), 2003, (1st)
4. Bubba Nelson, rhp - BA Top 100: #75 - Other Years: 2002 (8th), 2003 (4th)
5. Dan Meyer, lhp - BA Top 100: #82
6. Adam LaRoche, 1b - BA Top 100: #73
7. Macay McBride, lhp - Other Years: 2003 (5th)
8. Brian McCann, c - Other Years: 2005 (3rd)
9. Kyle Davies, rhp - Other Years: 2005 (4th)
10. Anthony Lerew, rhp - Other Years: 2005 (5th), 2006 (5th)

Prospect Spotlight
We all know that the Braves have a history of mining their state for talent as well as any team. Half of the prospects in their 2004 top ten were born in Georgia, including #9, Hiram Kyle Davies. Frankly, I prefer Hiram, but whatever. Selected in the 2001 draft along with McBride (1st round) and Lerew (11th round), Davies was coddled as a young teenager working his way through the rookie levels. He logged 56 innings in the Gulf Coast League after being drafted and followed that up with 69.1 ING in 14 starts with Danville the following year. Both seasons included cameos with Macon, but his time in full season ball really didn't come until 2003, a season that was recognized by Baseball America with a placement on this list.

In 27 starts, Davies, who was still just 19, held his own with a 1.24 WHIP and over a K an inning with very good control. He was definitely deserving of recognition, even with Lerew, Meyer, and Jose Capellan on the inaugural Rome Braves pitching staff with Davies. He followed that up with a 2004 that began with a 2.63 ERA in Myrtle Beach before a 62-inning run with Greenville that saw Davies post an even lower 2.32 ERA. There was good reason to get excited about Davies heading into 2005. He was knocking on the door and all he needed was a chance to advance to the majors.

Injuries to John Thomson and Mike Hampton (shocker) provided that opportunity and Davies made his debut on May 21st, 2005. He was stellar, holding the Red Sox, who averaged 5.6 R/G in 2005, to just four singles, three walks, and striking out six Boston hitters, including David Ortiz looking and Manny Ramirez twice swinging. For a staff that included four pitchers who were 29 or older, the arrival of Davies gave us excitement for the future, but his quick success also made the present look promising. In his first four starts, he posted a 0.77 ERA and nearly a K an inning. But over his next 17 games, things didn't work out so well as his ERA ballooned to 6.44, he nearly walked as many as he struck out,. Plus, hitters were sending too many pitches deep and way the hell out of the park.

We were still hopeful because, well, we had to be. The state of the Braves pitching in the mid-2000's was cross your fingers that the old guys perform and pray that pitchers like Horacio Ramirez, Chuck James, Jorge Sosa, Jo-Jo Reyes, and even Buddy Carlyle don't suck. At least Davies had youth on his side. Unfortunately, that was it. He posted an almost impossibly high ERA of 8.38 in 14 starts in 2006 with a WHIP of 1.94. Since 2000, only eight other pitchers pitched at least 60 innings in a given season and posted a WHIP higher than Davies in 2006. In 2007, he was back and was better, but that's only because you can't be but so much worse than putrid. By July, the Braves had soured on Davies and shipped him off to the Royals for Octavio Dotel. The Royals endured four-plus years of Davies before finally releasing him. His performance on the mound was deserving of a boot, but it was getting booked on disorderly intoxication that ultimately earned him a release.

Davies last game in the majors came fittingly in Fenway Park where he again, shutdown the Red Sox. Davies would go to pitch for the Blue Jays, Twins, and the Indians organizations since his release working through injuries along the way. A free agent, Davies is just 30. His career ERA is 5.59.

Biggest Bust
It would be easy to call Davies the biggest bust out of this group, but let's look at the 6'2" lefty Meyer. Baseball America originally had the Braves' selection of Meyer as the 34th overall pick as a stretch, projecting him as a late third rounder, but the Braves were excited about the future with Meyer's mid-90's heat. Personally, Meyer was quickly one of the guys I followed because he was selected out of the college I wanted to transfer to - James Madison University. As Meyer dominated the Appalachian League, thrived in SALLY and Carolina, and impressed in the Southern and International Leagues, it looked like the Braves were redeemed with their selection. Meyer was already on the doorstep before the 2005 season. Considering the 2004 Braves relied on the unlikely contributions of Jaret Wright and needed to get younger, it only seemed like a great fit for them to welcome Meyer into their rotation. The fact that he had never posted an ERA over 3.00 only made fans more excited to see him take his place as the next great lefty in the staff.

But you know the story. The offseason between 2004-05 included the shocking trade of Meyer, along with Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas, for Oakland A's ace Tim Hudson. Meyer's time with the Braves looked to be through, but he was still a top prospect and the crown jewel of the deal for Billy Beane. However, Meyer struggled to stay healthy or even pitch all that well and wouldn't even play for the big league club until 2007. An equally bad 2008 cameo hurt Meyer, who was not only out of options but had exhausted the A's patience in him. After the 2008 season, the Marlins picked him up on waivers and he would go to post his only success at the major league level in south Florida during 2009. Appearing in 71 games as a LOOGY, Meyer K'd nearly a batter an inning with a 1.17 WHIP. But the success was good as suddenly as it appeared. He struggled in 2010 and was cast off. A short, woeful run with the Pirates in AAA in 2011 followed. He ended up with the Pirates after failing to make the Phillies bullpen that spring. The player that beat him out? Antonio Bastardo. Meyer showed his displeasure in 2013 after Bastardo was suspended for PEDs.

Since retiring, Meyer has returned to the Braves as Danville's pitching coach.

Sunday, January 4, 2015

Random Ex-Brave: Mark Whiten

We often think of baseball in the strict terms of what we see and quantify. Chipper Jones hit 45 homers the year he won the MVP. Greg Maddux had a 1.90 ERA in his first 89 starts with the Braves. When going into the sixth inning with the lead, the 2013 Braves were 66-6, a winning percentage of .917.

But real life has a way of impacting the direction of a baseball team. John Hart has been on both sides of that. Earlier this offseason, he agreed to a trade that sent Jason Heyward to the Cardinals. The Cards were reeling at the time as their expected 2015 right-fielder, Oscar Taveras, had perished in a car accident during the World Series. Without this event, Heyward is unlikely to be dealt to the Cardinals and Shelby Miller is probably not anchoring the middle of the Braves rotation in 2015. But that's just how things go sometimes.

A similar situation occurred during spring training of 1993 involving the Cleveland Indians. A horrific boating accident claimed the lives of pitchers Steve Olin and Tim Crews while severely injuring Bob Ojeda. All three were being counted on for the Indians staff that year by Hart, their general manager. Searching for answers, he called the Cardinals in hopes of acquiring a pitcher to bridge the gap. That ended up being Mark Clark, who was then a season-and-a-half into a below-average ten year career. The Indians gave up a young outfielder named Mark Whiten, a project with plus power who once was a prospect in the Blue Jays' system. Incidentally, the Cardinals were trying to acquire Keith Mitchell from the Braves before getting Whiten. 

Credit: Whig.com
Whiten would go on to have probably his best year. Although he only OPSed .746, he belted 25 homers while setting personal records in games played and plate appearances. He received extensive playing time in right field, starting over future Brave and former Falcon, Brian Jordan. Whiten's biggest day of 1993 came during the second game of a doubleheader in Cincinnati on September 7th.  The matchup included two teams finishing up non-contending years. Compare that with the Braves, who won 1-0 to pull to 2.5 games behind the Giants in the last great divisional race before the Wild Card's introduction the following year. Yet, while something special was happening with the Braves, Whiten took center stage as he homered four times off three pitchers, picking up 12 of his 99 RBIs. Only 16 players in the history of baseball have hit four homeruns in the same game, including Bob Horner, the only Brave on the list. Only two have ever driven in 12 runs in a game. Only one, Whiten, has accomplished both feats. 

What makes that even more notable is Whiten's career never took off. While successful before the strike in 1994, he was shipped off to the Red Sox before 1995 and traded again that season to the Phillies. With a .752 OPS, he was actually hitting okay in 1996 before his June release by the Phillies.

A week later, the Braves came calling. Whiten joined the Braves a little more than a month after a check swing ended David Justice's season along with, as we would find out later, his career with the Braves. Jermaine Dye had been called up to replace Justice and was performing well, but the Braves were naturally concerned about the rookie's staying power after being forced to the majors because of an injury to Halle Barry's ex-beau. Whiten would play in 36 games with the Braves, including 23 starts in right field. He actually hit pretty well overall, slashing .256/.364/.433 with a trio of homers. His biggest moments with the Braves came in pinch-hitting appearances against his former teams. On July 22nd, Whiten batted for Mike Bielecki in a 6-3 game against the Cardinals. His fullcount two-run bomb off Andy Benes started a rally that ended with the Braves winning 8-6. In addition, during the second game of a double header on August 13th in Philly, Whiten hit a three-run homer to put the Braves up 3-1. They would hold on to win 5-2. 

That was Whiten's last at-bat with the Braves. That day, the Braves had completed a deal with the Marlins to bring back Terry Pendleton and needed room on their 25-man roster. In response, they sent Whiten to the Mariners for minor league pitcher Roger Blanco. The latter never made it out of A-ball, finishing with a 7.07 ERA in parts of four minor league seasons. Whiten would go to belt 12 homers and OPS over a thousand in a short run with the Mariners, though they ultimately finished short of their effort to return to the postseason. 

After spending 1997 with the Yankees, Whiten would return to Cleveland for the next three seasons, though he only really got time in the majors during 1998 when he logged his only postseason action of his career. He also pitched an inning and struck out the side, though he also walked two, hit a batter, and gave up a base hit. 

Hard Hittin' Whiten would continue to keep his career alive after 2000 by playing in the Mexican League and Atlantic League, along with a short eight-game run with the Dodgers' AAA team. After 17 games playing with the likes of Kevin McGlinchy and Pedro Borbon for the Long Island Ducks in 2003, Whiten called it a career. He hit some big homers, but never found sustained success in the majors and despite his raw power and top-notch arm, he wore eight different jerseys because no team felt he was a big part of their future. Included in his closet is a Braves jersey with the #25 on it. That number soon was handed to a callup who would make his debut a day after Whiten was traded. 

Saturday, January 3, 2015

Favorite Braves List - Closer

(Previous information on this series can be found here. Of importance, this is not a best list, but a favorites list since I started to follow the Braves. That limits options from 1991-to-now.)

Favorite Braves List (so far)
Ace Starter - Greg Maddux
#2 Starter - John Smoltz
#3 Starter - Tim Hudson
#4 Starter - Tom Glavine

Catcher - Brian McCann
First Base - Fred McGriff
Second Base - Marcus Giles
Shortstop - Andrelton Simmons
Third Base - Chipper Jones 
Left Field - Ryan Klesko
Center Field - Andruw Jones

Honorable Mention: Hard not to mention what Mark Wohlers did for the Braves. Even if reading his twitter account is like delving into the mind of a nut-job who overcompensates with his love for guns, he got the final out in 1995 and that alone deserves a mention. Kerry Ligtenberg was one of my favorites, too. His pitching was almost as awesome as his facial hair. Mike Gonzalez was insanely frustrating, but when he was on, he was a joy to watch.

Favorite Braves List - Closer
Craig Kimbrel

I'm a dork.

I can admit that so I have that going for me. If you have been a reader of this blog, you didn't need to be told about it, though. You already are well aware that I'm just a dork. And one thing that gets my dorkometer going is ridiculous numbers that you expect out of a video game on rookie level. Guys like Kimbrel provide that. Last season, Fangraphs re-classified Kimbrel's secondary pitch as a knuckle-curve. They used to call a slider. Neither are correct. Kimbrel's spiked curveball, or power curve, is downright ridiculous. He threw 287 of them last year. Hitters made contact on less than half of them. Of that half they didn't make contact on, almost a quarter of his spiked curve's were swung through. The spiked curveball resulted in 45 strikeouts. Only nine times in 297 usages of the pitch did the hitter reach safely via a hit. Just one resulted in a homer. For a dork like me, I feel like I'm cheating on my wife by looking at these numbers. Don't judge me.

For the last four seasons, Kimbrel has not only dominated the National League (he has led the league in saves in each season), but he has been remarkably durable. He has saved nearly 50 more than the second place guy, pitched in the eleventh most games, and logged the 8th most relief innings. His ERA despite arguably been overused? 1.51. Oh, that's the top in the league for that time frame. If you add his 21 games of work as a middle reliever during the 2010 season, he has a 1.43 ERA in 289 career innings. Of pitchers with 250 or more innings in the long history of baseball, only three players have an ERA under 2.00. Ed Walsh (1.82) and Addie Joss (1.89) join Kimbrel with that elite honor. Granted, they did it in over 2300 innings each, but they also had the spitball. So, even-Stevens?

The most amazing thing about Kimbrel is that while his stuff was never questioned, there was significant questions about whether or not he would find the strikezone enough to be an effective major league pitcher. You're talking about a guy who walked 5.6 per nine innings in the minor leagues. A comparable pitcher to what we thought Kimbrel was limited to was John Axford, a fine righty who has logged 116 saves since 2010, but a guy whose control has limited his effectiveness. You could reasonably have assumed that was Kimbrel's future when he came to the majors. Instead, he has showed unfair control, dropping his only weakness in favor of a walk rate of just 3.36 BB/9 with a low of 2.01.

Another crazy thing is that Kimbrel hasn't been as good the last two seasons as he was in 2012, when he struck out half of all batters he faced. While fangraphs doesn't chart K% that far back, only Aroldis Chapman last year has been able to replicate a percentage of 50% or better. Kimbrel only walked about 6% that year, leaving him with a difference of 44% between the two percentages. Only Chapman eclipses 40%. Kimbrel's FIP that year of 0.78 is eight points lower than the second best season. That season allowed Eric Gagne to win a Cy Young. Kimbrel finished fifth. I'm not a proponent of giving relievers the Cy Young, but damn, if you are going to do it, Kimbrel's 2012 was deserving. Just because there was a feel-good story of a knuckleballer in New York doesn't trump that Kimbrel was super awesome.

Of course, a Kimbrel appreciation article is incomplete without mentioning his pre-pitch stance. It's been called Kimbreling (I guess since wikipedia says so). It's been hilariously mocked. It only adds to the aura of Kimbrel, a guy with filthy stuff that despite being a luxury on a team likely going through a down period, is considered untouchable. He's one of a kind and a worthy addition to the Walk-Off Walk Favorite Braves squad.

Friday, January 2, 2015

Braves 86 the Carp

Ya know, it's damn inconvenient of the Atlanta Braves to pull off a trade as I am trying like hell to catch up to my blog schedule. Oh, you don't care? Well...ouch. I thought we were friends.

Anyway, arbitration-eligible David Carpenter was packaged with likable lefty Chasen Shreve in a trade with the Yankees Thursday as the Braves grab ex-prospect Manny Banuelos in return. I'll get back to the newest Brave in a second, but let's spend a moment to remember the dearly departed.

Shreve was once just this guy with a weird name, but last year, he developed into a kind of reliable lefty for Fredi Gonzalez and the Braves, something they didn't have much of last season. The former eleventh rounder out of Las Vegas appeared in 15 games with the Braves, posting a microscopic (and unsustainable) 0.75 ERA with 15 K's in 12.1 ING to just three walks. Lefties were actually more successful than righthanders in his limited time in the majors, though the disparity wasn't significant enough to make much of a judgement on it.

In addition to his major league success, he was very good in the minors last season with an 0.98 WHIP shared between the top two levels of the Braves' minor league pipeline. Again, he handled both righties and lefties with slightly better grades against the former. There may have even been hope that he would be more than just a LOOGY. Some had suggested the Braves were concerned about his shoulder, though considering how they love to pick up injured pitchers, I question that concern.

Carp showed up out of nowhere in 2013 to become one of the most trusted relievers at Fredi's disposal. That trust backfired in the NLDS against the Dodgers when he chose Carp over that guy who handled ninth inning duties (because it was the eighth inning and THAT'S COMPLETELY DIFFERENT than the ninth inning). But that trust did have some validity to it as Carp posted a 2.83 FIP with well over a K an inning for the Braves in 2013. Not too shabby for a guy who was waived by the Red Sox a month after being acquired in the deal that landed John Farrell the top job in Boston. Carp wasn't as good in the first half last season, though he turned it back on down the stretch and his numbers were overall excellent. In 121 games as a Brave, Carp had a 2.88 FIP, 1.12 WHIP, and 141 K's in 126.2 ING.

However, the Braves had already signed Jim Johnson and Jason Grilli. For six years of control over Shreve and three years of Carp, the Braves got the left-hander, Banuelos, who was a former Top 30 prospect before the 2012 season. But this is 2015 so what did the Braves actually get? Well, after missing 2013 with Tommy John, Banuelos spent last year building arm strength and trying to get back into the picture with the Yankees. On the face of it, trading two relievers for a starter is typically a win. Is this one?

When he was at his best, "Man-Ban" has been known to up his velocity to the mid-to-high 90's - heat that could play up as a reliever. However, as a starter, he scales it back a little and works in his change-up and curveball, along with his newer selection - a cutter. How good those pitches actually are will determine a lot as to whether or not Banuelos finally breaks through.

The kicker with Banuelos is that despite the amount of digital ink he has received over the last four years, he will be entering his age-24 season in 2015. You can tell why the Braves liked adding another high reward arm at a bargain price. But like Daniel Winkler and Arodys Vizcaino, there is a reason why Banuelos could be had for a pair of relievers, only one of which is established. The question marks are enough to sink Banuelos's trade value. Maybe he does reach his ability and the Braves look like they stole six years of team control from a lefty with front-of-the-rotation stuff. Or maybe he turns into a decent LOOGY. Either way, the choice was made that the risk couldn't possibly outweigh the reward.

So, we say good bye to Carp, a wonderful find for Frank Wren.

Oh...wait...that's why he had to go.