With Andrelton Simmons hurt and Jack Wilson suffering from severe sucktitude (plus his finger hurts real bad), Atlanta send Todd Redmond (he of 101 games with Gwinnett, 0 with Atlanta) to the Cincinnati Red Legs for Paul Janish. First, a moment of remembrance for Redmond. Acquired in spring training of 2008 for Tyler Yates, Redmond was the Southern League Pitcher of the Year that year and has spent the last 3.5 years with Gwinnett like a modern day Brad Woodall.
Janish is 29 years-old and has been around since 2004 when he was a fifth round selection from Rice University. He made it to AAA in his third full season, the majors the following year in 2008 for 38 games. After a terrible .601 OPS in 90 games in the bigs during 2009, Janish showed some worth in 2010 with a .260 average to go with his .723 OPS while playing in 82 games. However, he regressed to .214 last year and has spent this year with Louisville, the Reds' AAA team.
With Janish, you aren't expecting much in terms of offense. When a .723 OPS is a high-performance season, your expectations must be muted and true to form, he was hitting .237 for L'ville this year. However, what you do expect is defense and Janish has been able to provide that. While he has appeared on occasion at second and third in the bigs, the bulk of his time has come at shortstop where he has strong metrics. He won't outperform Simmons in the field, but he's much better than Wilson is at this point in Wilson's career.
He doesn't have much experience as a utility player and has typically stuck at short, but has 21 MLB games at third and twelve at second base. He even got on the mound for a couple of games in 2009 during blowouts.
Janish is a fix to the situation, though I don't think it means Frank Wren has to stop looking for better players. The injury to Wilson forced a move. Now, the Braves don't have to overspend on a player just to make a move. The price tag for a guy like Marco Scutaro was probably too high so Wren's hoping it will come down before the deadline. If the price tag for a bench player remains too high, the Braves at least have something for the short term.
That said...still hoping the Braves can find a bat for the middle infield.
Saturday, July 14, 2012
I Know! We Need Gamers!
I admit that it's not fair for me to be critical of other bloggers. This thing we do is really not as easy as we want to believe it is. Sure, you think it's going to be easy. "Oh, I'll start a blog. I'm important. It'll be easy!" However, you find yourself trying to find subjects to write about or wondering if anyone cares or wondering if you even care.
But when someone writes nonsensical stuff like "Braves need more gamers to compete at highest level," you can't avoid the desire to go over it like a bad episode of Mystery Science Theatre 3000.
Listen, being aggressive is awesome, but you also need to try to be safe.
Right now, a healthy shortstop. But really...Simmons' speed? Rafael Furcal (2000-05), Edgar Renteria (2006-07), and Yunel Escobar (2007-10) must have been a lot slower than I remembered or their stats have informed me of. No, I do get it that Simmons defense has been extraordinary and by no means am I saying that he's not a better defender than that trio, but Simmons, while fast, is definitely no more faster than Furcal. Renty swiped 28 bases in his two years here. As for the Braves playing small ball...I'm told by every traditionalist I come into contact with that the Braves need to play more small ball. By the way..."small ball"...another vague, non-nonsensical term to go with "gamer." Finally, "Simmons also brought a sense of the game"...really?
Matt Diaz probably has more energy than anyone else on the team. He hustles, tries hard, does everything he can. He's still dragging the team down. Energy never replaces talent. Tyler Pastornicky didn't suck because he wasn't excited about being in the bigs or coming to the park with fresh-faced energy. He sucked because he's not a particularly gifted player. This isn't basketball where a high energy can seems to really change the game. There are no Anderson Varejao's in baseball. There is simply a gap between talent and untalented, performing and nonperforming, coaching and Fredi Gonzalez. The Braves don't win because they "out-energied" the competition.
Gamers are a fun cliche, but the fact is the Braves need more than cliches. They need a starter capable of posting a solid K/9 rate and good WHIP. They need a shortstop capable of walking upright. They need bench players who get on-base. Jack Wilson doesn't suck because he doesn't gamer-it-up enough. He sucks because he sucks. I know he tries hard. He's a professional! Nonperforming players typically last even shorter if they don't have energy and don't try hard. They made it to the major fucking leagues. 750 people on a given day accomplish such a feat. But when you get to the bigs, things change. Either you can hit a curve or you can't. Either you can throw your fastball for quality strikes or you can't. No amount of energy makes up for a lack of range. You aren't a gamer if you take the extra base...you're simply doing your job.
You know who was a gamer? Brooks Conrad. Dude gave everything he had and still couldn't field a ball in the 2010 playoffs. But being a gamer ultimately doesn't beat anyone.
But seriously, Fredi sucks.
But when someone writes nonsensical stuff like "Braves need more gamers to compete at highest level," you can't avoid the desire to go over it like a bad episode of Mystery Science Theatre 3000.
For those who don’t know, Simmons broke his pinky by sliding into second base on a single that he stretched out when the center fielder lollygagged his throw back to the infield. Now, many people would probably criticize his aggressiveness, particularly his headfirst slide, which Braves fans know the dangers of. After the game, manager Fredi Gonzalez said he had been pushing his players to play with that level of competitiveness and he couldn’t really fault Simmons for pushing the play.No, Fredi can't really fault Simmons for pushing the play, but it wasn't his aggressiveness that got him in trouble either. It was the head-first slide into second base. See, if he slides cleats-first, there does remain a chance that Simmons gets hurt, but there is also a chance that he spikes Utley (who had his leg down blocking the bag) and sends a message that you better watch out. And while sliding face-first might present more along the line of impromptu moves during the slide to better the chances of being safe, there is just too many risks to go with your face-first slide that it should be argued against.
Listen, being aggressive is awesome, but you also need to try to be safe.
I see both sides, certainly. On one hand, you want your players to play safe ball and stay healthy throughout the season. On the other hand, a team can find a lot of success by pushing the pace and the energy of the game.
Enter the “gamer.”Ah, yes, the "gamer." I admit that these quasi-romantic terms do nothing for me. Like obscenity, the user of the term seems to know it when he sees it. People who love these terms love them because they bring a sort of unforeseen force to the game, making it more of a religion. When asked what exactly they may, they tend to focus on vague descriptions. He works hard. He sees the ball well. He's clutch. He just always seems to be in the right place. Seriously, this shit annoys me because it doesn't respect the work ethic and effort that typically allows for the "gamer" to shine.
Braves fans have been wowed by Simmons on many levels. His speed is an obvious improvement to the team, an asset the Braves haven’t seen a lot of in the past. They play more small ball than they’ve relied on power, but speed has come at a premium. But Simmons also brought a sense of the game that not every player has, as well as an arm like a cannon and a fairly reliable bat. What more could you ask for?
Right now, a healthy shortstop. But really...Simmons' speed? Rafael Furcal (2000-05), Edgar Renteria (2006-07), and Yunel Escobar (2007-10) must have been a lot slower than I remembered or their stats have informed me of. No, I do get it that Simmons defense has been extraordinary and by no means am I saying that he's not a better defender than that trio, but Simmons, while fast, is definitely no more faster than Furcal. Renty swiped 28 bases in his two years here. As for the Braves playing small ball...I'm told by every traditionalist I come into contact with that the Braves need to play more small ball. By the way..."small ball"...another vague, non-nonsensical term to go with "gamer." Finally, "Simmons also brought a sense of the game"...really?
Let’s go back to his “baseball sense” for a moment. This is an instinct for the game that isn’t easily taught. Brian McCann has often been picked out for his natural talent for the game and was let off the leash early as a catcher, meaning he was calling pitches and plays because he had the head for it. Chipper Jones has that sense, which is supported by his numbers at the plate. I think Jason Heyward has that sense, but has kept it somewhat under wraps for the start of his career.Instincts by definition are not taught. I think you are confusing "instincts" with skills. When combined, skills can really take off. McCann's knowledge of the game comes from years of watching baseball and as he has perfected the art, he has become better at using video and scouting reports. That's not so much natural as it is a learned art. While obviously, catchers tend to have a "head" for the game, they often get there because they have to be a sponge and take in a wealth of knowledge on hitters, tendencies, who's hot/not?, defensive alignment, calling pitches to fit that alignment, pitcher's abilities, baserunner's abilities, and so on and so on. Why belittle that by saying McCann has a "sense" for it? Dude works his ass off. If he had a "sense" for it, his footwork wouldn't be so bad. Chipper is even a bigger example of this. Chipper is known and respected for his knowledge and his ability to seemingly access memory at will. That was instilled in him at an early age with Larry Sr. and has continued for 20-plus years as a professional in this game. It's not a sense, but a concerted effort to be the best.
When I say that, I mean that when Heyward came on the scene, no one could say enough about the potential he had as a ballplayer. His bat and speed were the high points; he was projected to bring new power to the Braves and be a strong outfielder. But his first year, while good and somewhat eye-opening, wasn’t what I expected from all the talk. I certainly didn’t expect his second year to be such a letdown. Sure, it was shadowed by some injuries (headfirst slide!), but his bat all but died and people began to wonder if they hadn’t been premature in their speculation.Since 1980, only two position players have posted a better than 5.1 WAR while spending most of the year at 20 years-old. Heyward's 5.1 WAR ranks behind Alex Rodriguez's 9.8 WAR and Ken Griffey Jr.'s 5.3 WAR. Those guys are Hall of Fame-bound. That not eye-opening enough for you? Maybe it wasn't Mike Trout good (he will likely better Heyward's 5.1 WAR), but it was still a damn good accomplishment. People need to understand how awesome Heyward's rookie season was. I don't know if people felt it was less than astonishing because of his terrible follow-up season or if they just don't get it, but Heyward was extraordinary in 2010. I think people who soured on Heyward after his sophomore season aren't very smart or capable analysts.
The Braves need to perform like a gamer team. I think over the last few years, including the transition from Bobby Cox to Gonzalez, they’ve lost a little of that excitement and energy that used to come so easily to them. That can certainly be changed with youth, who tend to bring a fresh-faced energy with them, but it helps for it to be infectious, to encompass the whole team.Again, no real definition. The Braves, last season, were around the average in both hitters' age and pitchers' age. Their pitching was the fourth oldest in 2010 and hitters were around the average. In fact, there hitters haven't been amongst the youngest since back-to-back playoff misses in '06-'07, but really, that's not all that important. What is important is that excitement and energy are fun and everything, but it doesn't mean a lot if you aren't winning and winning games comes down to pitching well, fielding your position, and getting on base. I promise you that you can have a team of guys with loads of energy vs. a team that calmly goes about their business but is more talented and the more talented team will typically win. Unless they are managed by Fredi that is.
Matt Diaz probably has more energy than anyone else on the team. He hustles, tries hard, does everything he can. He's still dragging the team down. Energy never replaces talent. Tyler Pastornicky didn't suck because he wasn't excited about being in the bigs or coming to the park with fresh-faced energy. He sucked because he's not a particularly gifted player. This isn't basketball where a high energy can seems to really change the game. There are no Anderson Varejao's in baseball. There is simply a gap between talent and untalented, performing and nonperforming, coaching and Fredi Gonzalez. The Braves don't win because they "out-energied" the competition.
Gamers are a fun cliche, but the fact is the Braves need more than cliches. They need a starter capable of posting a solid K/9 rate and good WHIP. They need a shortstop capable of walking upright. They need bench players who get on-base. Jack Wilson doesn't suck because he doesn't gamer-it-up enough. He sucks because he sucks. I know he tries hard. He's a professional! Nonperforming players typically last even shorter if they don't have energy and don't try hard. They made it to the major fucking leagues. 750 people on a given day accomplish such a feat. But when you get to the bigs, things change. Either you can hit a curve or you can't. Either you can throw your fastball for quality strikes or you can't. No amount of energy makes up for a lack of range. You aren't a gamer if you take the extra base...you're simply doing your job.
You know who was a gamer? Brooks Conrad. Dude gave everything he had and still couldn't field a ball in the 2010 playoffs. But being a gamer ultimately doesn't beat anyone.
But seriously, Fredi sucks.
Friday, July 13, 2012
Making the Most
And we're back.
After a brief reprieve, baseball's second half opens tonight as the Braves start a three-game set at home against the New York Mets. The latter is a surprisingly half-game worse than the Braves' disappointing 46-39 record, though both trail the front-running Nationals. On Sunday, the Braves will welcome Ben Sheets to the team, though there is no move just yet to define who he will replace. It would seem reasonable to believe that the former Brewer would take Mike Minor's place as Randall Delgado has outpitched the "Start Me or Trade Me" Minor.
That's the easy choice. What to do about shortstop is the much tougher one. Andrelton Simmons hustled a double against the Phillies in the final game of the season's first half, but slid head-first into second and broke his right pinky. I could go into a whole diatribe on how much I despise the head-first slide, but regardless, losing Simmons is a massive blow for the Braves' chances of making a run toward October glory. While Simmons will likely be back before September, possibly well before, the Braves don't have a reasonable option in-house.
Jack Wilson is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad, baseball player. Other than that, he's a swell guy. However, the Braves would need plus production from the rest of the team to escape the gigantic hole Wilson would provide. While it's almost inevitable that Wilson's stats would benefit from playing five times a week from his current .174 average (.203 BABIP), the chances that his offensive numbers mounted to more than a few more singles than usual are minimal. Even worse, Wilson's skills are far more useful in the AL than the NL. You can't use him for bunts when the pitcher follows and in close games, you are in the destructive position of having to empty your bench both for his spot and the pitcher spot while probably using a third bench player to play short. And for all of the talk about his formally awesome glove, Wilson's in his third consecutive year of negative UZR.
The former starter Tyler Pastornicky is not an example of a possible posthype sleeper. Even if Pastornicky had hit better than .255 with a nearly 2-to-1 K/BB rate at Gwinnett, the simple truth is Pastornicky's ability at short is limited to a game here and there.
Of the six other options at AA and AAA, none of them can even match Pastornicky's .676 OPS at Gwinnett and probably wouldn't be a defensive lift over Wilson.
Now, the more conservative view is to sit back, hope the rest of the team can provide a lift, and deal with the production (or lack there of) at shortstop until Simmons can come back. I do understand the idea, but if the Braves wish to make the most of this season, they should act and thankfully, according to several bloggers, that is exactly what the Braves wish to do. As they open the second half, Pastornicky hasn't even been recalled yet as they hope to not need to make another procedural move. And let's not act like replacing Simmons for a month should be the only goal. Jack Wilson was already performing at a substandard pace and with the bench troubles the Braves have had, getting a middle infielder should have already been on the wish list. Simmons's injury only upped the urgency.
Who are the best targets?
Marco Scutaro - While his price tag might hurt the Braves' interest, Scutaro has to be at the top of the list. While defensively comparable to Wilson at this point in their careers, Scutaro actually comes with a bat. An 0.9 WAR player, Scutaro won't be a difference maker, but he can hold down the fort and provide sufficient support for the Atlanta Braves down the stretch. Scutaro has evolved nicely from a backup utility player to a solid enough shortstop. This year for the Rockies, Scutaro has hit .277, but his OBP, SLG, wOBA are all slightly down. That likely wouldn't be improved by a move to the Ted. Also a concern is the $3M or so that is left on his contract. How much the Braves would be willing to take on at this point of the season for essentially a bench piece for any playoff run is of some debate. However, of the known available options, Scutaro is probably the best.
Brendan Ryan - Often mentioned as a likely pickup for the Braves, Ryan has done what seems impossible by posting a 1.6 WAR while hitting .187. That makes me think of Demolition Man and "Murder, Death, Kill" which sounds like an awesome nickname for Ryan. As far as defense goes, Ryan provides it at a Gold Glove level and has been a tremendous defender at shortstop since arriving in the bigs for the Cardinals. Plus, he had a cool mustache. The Braves can retain him next year via arbitration, though how much would you pay for awesome defense when you already have Simmons? Offensively, Ryan gets you some steals, but not a whole lot more.
Willie Bloomquist - A prototypical utility player, Bloomquist played every position except pitcher and catcher in 2010. Bloomquist has had a nice little season for the Diamondbacks, hitting .294/.324/.393 while getting a lot of playing time at shortstop due to injuries. However, his shortstop this season has been awfully close to Pastornicky's level so you are hoping to bank on Bloomquist performing at a high level offensively. True to form, he's posted a .757 OPS at home and a .675 OPS away so there would likely be regression. In addition, you are also committing to some degree to Bloomquist as a backup in 2013 as he inked a two-year, $3.8M contract last November. He's a better 25th man than Wilson because you can move him around and he typically gives you a nice average and a few steals. With the D'Backs still in contention, he might not be easy to acquire.
Obviously, the options aren't awesome by any means, but any of the three would represent an improvement over Wilson. Scutaro gives you starter-capable offense from short, Ryan provides top-flight defense, and Bloomquist is your classic example of the last guy on an NL bench. Of course, all three have their concerns. Scutaro makes a lot of money to be a starter for a month and a backup for the rest of the year while Ryan has barely outhit Wilson and Bloomquist's defense is bad at shortstop. Regardless, to make the most of this opportunity to get to October baseball, the Braves need to improve.
After a brief reprieve, baseball's second half opens tonight as the Braves start a three-game set at home against the New York Mets. The latter is a surprisingly half-game worse than the Braves' disappointing 46-39 record, though both trail the front-running Nationals. On Sunday, the Braves will welcome Ben Sheets to the team, though there is no move just yet to define who he will replace. It would seem reasonable to believe that the former Brewer would take Mike Minor's place as Randall Delgado has outpitched the "Start Me or Trade Me" Minor.
That's the easy choice. What to do about shortstop is the much tougher one. Andrelton Simmons hustled a double against the Phillies in the final game of the season's first half, but slid head-first into second and broke his right pinky. I could go into a whole diatribe on how much I despise the head-first slide, but regardless, losing Simmons is a massive blow for the Braves' chances of making a run toward October glory. While Simmons will likely be back before September, possibly well before, the Braves don't have a reasonable option in-house.
Jack Wilson is a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad, baseball player. Other than that, he's a swell guy. However, the Braves would need plus production from the rest of the team to escape the gigantic hole Wilson would provide. While it's almost inevitable that Wilson's stats would benefit from playing five times a week from his current .174 average (.203 BABIP), the chances that his offensive numbers mounted to more than a few more singles than usual are minimal. Even worse, Wilson's skills are far more useful in the AL than the NL. You can't use him for bunts when the pitcher follows and in close games, you are in the destructive position of having to empty your bench both for his spot and the pitcher spot while probably using a third bench player to play short. And for all of the talk about his formally awesome glove, Wilson's in his third consecutive year of negative UZR.
The former starter Tyler Pastornicky is not an example of a possible posthype sleeper. Even if Pastornicky had hit better than .255 with a nearly 2-to-1 K/BB rate at Gwinnett, the simple truth is Pastornicky's ability at short is limited to a game here and there.
Of the six other options at AA and AAA, none of them can even match Pastornicky's .676 OPS at Gwinnett and probably wouldn't be a defensive lift over Wilson.
Now, the more conservative view is to sit back, hope the rest of the team can provide a lift, and deal with the production (or lack there of) at shortstop until Simmons can come back. I do understand the idea, but if the Braves wish to make the most of this season, they should act and thankfully, according to several bloggers, that is exactly what the Braves wish to do. As they open the second half, Pastornicky hasn't even been recalled yet as they hope to not need to make another procedural move. And let's not act like replacing Simmons for a month should be the only goal. Jack Wilson was already performing at a substandard pace and with the bench troubles the Braves have had, getting a middle infielder should have already been on the wish list. Simmons's injury only upped the urgency.
Who are the best targets?
Marco Scutaro - While his price tag might hurt the Braves' interest, Scutaro has to be at the top of the list. While defensively comparable to Wilson at this point in their careers, Scutaro actually comes with a bat. An 0.9 WAR player, Scutaro won't be a difference maker, but he can hold down the fort and provide sufficient support for the Atlanta Braves down the stretch. Scutaro has evolved nicely from a backup utility player to a solid enough shortstop. This year for the Rockies, Scutaro has hit .277, but his OBP, SLG, wOBA are all slightly down. That likely wouldn't be improved by a move to the Ted. Also a concern is the $3M or so that is left on his contract. How much the Braves would be willing to take on at this point of the season for essentially a bench piece for any playoff run is of some debate. However, of the known available options, Scutaro is probably the best.
Brendan Ryan - Often mentioned as a likely pickup for the Braves, Ryan has done what seems impossible by posting a 1.6 WAR while hitting .187. That makes me think of Demolition Man and "Murder, Death, Kill" which sounds like an awesome nickname for Ryan. As far as defense goes, Ryan provides it at a Gold Glove level and has been a tremendous defender at shortstop since arriving in the bigs for the Cardinals. Plus, he had a cool mustache. The Braves can retain him next year via arbitration, though how much would you pay for awesome defense when you already have Simmons? Offensively, Ryan gets you some steals, but not a whole lot more.
Willie Bloomquist - A prototypical utility player, Bloomquist played every position except pitcher and catcher in 2010. Bloomquist has had a nice little season for the Diamondbacks, hitting .294/.324/.393 while getting a lot of playing time at shortstop due to injuries. However, his shortstop this season has been awfully close to Pastornicky's level so you are hoping to bank on Bloomquist performing at a high level offensively. True to form, he's posted a .757 OPS at home and a .675 OPS away so there would likely be regression. In addition, you are also committing to some degree to Bloomquist as a backup in 2013 as he inked a two-year, $3.8M contract last November. He's a better 25th man than Wilson because you can move him around and he typically gives you a nice average and a few steals. With the D'Backs still in contention, he might not be easy to acquire.
Obviously, the options aren't awesome by any means, but any of the three would represent an improvement over Wilson. Scutaro gives you starter-capable offense from short, Ryan provides top-flight defense, and Bloomquist is your classic example of the last guy on an NL bench. Of course, all three have their concerns. Scutaro makes a lot of money to be a starter for a month and a backup for the rest of the year while Ryan has barely outhit Wilson and Bloomquist's defense is bad at shortstop. Regardless, to make the most of this opportunity to get to October baseball, the Braves need to improve.
Sunday, July 8, 2012
Random Prospect of the Day - Matt Talley
The Random Prospects series returns with a pitcher. With 122 pitchers listed under the B-R page, random.org gave me number 109. Matt Talley. Four prospects in, I have two catchers and two lefties. This series is exciting!
Not sure what's going on with his left arm in this picture. Guess it wasn't feeling too well. Anywho, Talley is a 22 year-old from Sumter, South Carolina who will turn 23 in exactly one month. After graduating high school in 2007, he stayed close to home and attended The Citadel for four years, making 48 starts along the way. It's tough to get an easy four year read-out on his numbers as a Bulldog, but Talley appeared to have carved a niche out as an okayish arm with a great pickoff move. In his freshman year, he picked off nine runners in 15 outings. In 2009 as a sophomore, he went 8-1 with a 3.42 ERA, including a 2.18 ERA in conference play.
Not sure what's going on with his left arm in this picture. Guess it wasn't feeling too well. Anywho, Talley is a 22 year-old from Sumter, South Carolina who will turn 23 in exactly one month. After graduating high school in 2007, he stayed close to home and attended The Citadel for four years, making 48 starts along the way. It's tough to get an easy four year read-out on his numbers as a Bulldog, but Talley appeared to have carved a niche out as an okayish arm with a great pickoff move. In his freshman year, he picked off nine runners in 15 outings. In 2009 as a sophomore, he went 8-1 with a 3.42 ERA, including a 2.18 ERA in conference play.
His junior season in 2010 was capped off by an All-Tournament Team selection for the NCAA Regional in Columbia. He matched his eight wins in 2009 and had the ninth-longest scoreless inning streak of the year with 20.1 innings. He tossed a pair of shutouts, had a no-hitter going into the seventh for his first win, and was on the mound for the conference-clinching win against Georgia Southern. Another highlight came in the Regionals when he threw seven solid innings as The Citadel upset #16 Virginia Tech 7-2. In June of 2010, the Diamondbacks selected him with their 25th round pick, but he did not sign.
Tabbed as the ace in 2011, Talley did not have nearly the season he had hoped for. He struggled in his first two starts before missing nearly a month due to injury (I assume). The pick for preseason Conference Pitcher of the Year picked up a pair of complete games once he came back, but finished just 3-7 with a 3.95 ERA. He picked up 72 K's in 82 innings and was picked with the 866th overall selection by the Braves. Essentially, he returned and got his degree in civil engineering, but fell three rounds in the draft. He was the second pitcher the Braves had plucked in recent years from The Citadel. Matt Crim logged three seasons in the organization, but was cut before this season after stalling in A-ball.
The southpaw appeared in games for three different affiliates last year, but spent the bulk of his time with the GCL Braves. In 12 games, including six starts, Talley finished with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.17 WHIP to go with his 3.34 FIP. The GCL Braves finished 10 games under .500 so his 1-3 record is hardly a slam on his efforts. He received a late August one-game appearance out of the Danville pen and pitched poorly, walking a pair and giving up a pair of hits in one two-run frame. Still, he appeared in the second-to-last game of the year for the Lynchburg Hillcats and gave up three runs in the first three innings, but limited the damage from there and after 5.1 innings, he left with a 4-3 lead on the heels of a three-run homer by Joey Terdoslavich and an inside-the-park homer by Keenan Wiley. The 'Cats would give up the lead to rob Talley of his first class-A victory. He gave up seven hits and a walk while striking out no one.
Talley is the case of an older college pitcher who, if he is to stick around in organized baseball, needs to accelerate up the ladder quickly. This year, the results have been the opposite. After either an injury or simply not making the Rome roster out of camp sapped Talley of the first couple of months of the season, Talley finally made his season debut on June 7th with two scoreless innings and 3 K's out of the Rome pen. Over his next three appearances, he gave up eight runs (three earned) and struck out three to five walks. He was re-assigned to Danville and after a pair of decent outings, he walked three in his last one. Overall, in seven games, Talley has 13 strikeouts to nine walks in 13.2 ING. When he's not missing bats, they are finding holes as he has been roughed up for 20 hits.
The rest of this summer is very important for Talley's chances at being in the organization next season. When you are already 22 and you can't stay out of rookie-ball, your future has issues. Talley's a lefty so those guys can stick around, but with nothing to set him apart outside of what arm he throws with, Talley's place on the depth chart will be at the bottom if he's not producing. Being that he was a 28th round pick, the Braves have little investment in his future and he's being lapped by this year's draftees. His time to sink or swim is now.
Saturday, July 7, 2012
The Myth of Matt
When Atlanta allowed Matt Diaz to leave following the 2010 season, I had some mixed feelings. I had grown to be quite fond of the guy we at Chopnation had nicknamed Magellan for his often strange ways of tracking down a flyball to left. That said, for the money that Diaz could command, the results needed to be higher than Diaz had been able to muster in 2010 when he hit just .250 with a .319 wOBA and 0.5 WAR. Atlanta rightfully non-tendered him, jettisoning him the same way they did Kelly Johnson. Matty had some good years with the Braves, including three seasons of 2.0 WAR or better, and rightfully built a reputation as a left-handed pitching masher, but he had been paid $2.55M in 2010 and in arbitration, chances are he would have gotten a raise despite a bad season.
Diaz went on to sign with the Pirates for 2 years and $4M. Good for him.
And then, Frank Wren screwed me and brought him back in a trade last August 31st for some unGodly reason. The Pirates chipped in some cash and the Braves would send pitcher Eliecer Cardenas to the Pirates a month later. For what it's worth, Cardenas hasn't played this year because of injuries and isn't really a prospect to get too upset about losing.
However, with Diaz back in the fold, the Braves had their left-handed pitching masher. Yay! Except, one thing. Diaz wasn't hitting lefties with authority. I mean, he hit .295 against them last year and while that is nice, only seven of his 32 hits went for extra bases. A .692 OPS with no speed/defense does not make for a good platoon partner. The previous year, he had hit .273 with an .830 OPS against lefties. When you only have one skill that sets you apart from your co-workers, you better deliver that skill and Diaz was failing to do so last year. Still, Wren got him because I guess (hope?) that John Schuerholtz told him about how Diaz was such a find all those years ago.
Diaz was given the opportunity to redeem himself this year and wouldn't ya know it...he's not. He's hitting .275 with a .754 OPS against lefties. That's all well and good and everything, but often, the only reason he finds himself in the lineup is because the guy on the mound has the nerve to throw with his left arm. Diaz is supposed to punish that guy. A .754 OPS ain't cutting it.
Having built a reputation, it's sometimes hard to shed that reputation whether it's bad or good. Fans on facebook, Yahoo, DOB's blog, Atlantabraves.com, and a few mental hospitals in the greater Atlanta area still swear that Diaz destroys lefties. He crushes them! He pulverizes the shit out of them! He grinds up their bones!
But the results...they just aren't there. And Atlanta is suffering. Diaz against righties is a sad, depressing tale full of disappointment so the only saving grace is that he can destroy those tough lefties. So far this season, Diaz is 3 of 28 against righties. The dirty little secret is that you can try to protect Diaz, but eventually, he will face a righty and he's simply not suited to take on that task. It's like Eric Hinske against lefties. If you could bring both of them into a lab and mold them together, you might have a crappy bench player, but at least you wouldn't be holding up two spots on the bench for guys who supposedly have the exact same skill (severe platoon splits in their favor), but aren't producing.
Atlanta's bench has been a monumental failure this season and bringing back Diaz last year is looking like a mistake on Wren's behalf. Something needs to be done about the black hole of WilDiSke. Of the three, only Hinske can even say he has produced in the last three seasons. Start with Diaz and Wilson and go from there, Frank. Your team needs your wheeling and dealin.'
Please, Frank. You're our only hope.
Diaz went on to sign with the Pirates for 2 years and $4M. Good for him.
And then, Frank Wren screwed me and brought him back in a trade last August 31st for some unGodly reason. The Pirates chipped in some cash and the Braves would send pitcher Eliecer Cardenas to the Pirates a month later. For what it's worth, Cardenas hasn't played this year because of injuries and isn't really a prospect to get too upset about losing.
However, with Diaz back in the fold, the Braves had their left-handed pitching masher. Yay! Except, one thing. Diaz wasn't hitting lefties with authority. I mean, he hit .295 against them last year and while that is nice, only seven of his 32 hits went for extra bases. A .692 OPS with no speed/defense does not make for a good platoon partner. The previous year, he had hit .273 with an .830 OPS against lefties. When you only have one skill that sets you apart from your co-workers, you better deliver that skill and Diaz was failing to do so last year. Still, Wren got him because I guess (hope?) that John Schuerholtz told him about how Diaz was such a find all those years ago.
Diaz was given the opportunity to redeem himself this year and wouldn't ya know it...he's not. He's hitting .275 with a .754 OPS against lefties. That's all well and good and everything, but often, the only reason he finds himself in the lineup is because the guy on the mound has the nerve to throw with his left arm. Diaz is supposed to punish that guy. A .754 OPS ain't cutting it.
Having built a reputation, it's sometimes hard to shed that reputation whether it's bad or good. Fans on facebook, Yahoo, DOB's blog, Atlantabraves.com, and a few mental hospitals in the greater Atlanta area still swear that Diaz destroys lefties. He crushes them! He pulverizes the shit out of them! He grinds up their bones!
But the results...they just aren't there. And Atlanta is suffering. Diaz against righties is a sad, depressing tale full of disappointment so the only saving grace is that he can destroy those tough lefties. So far this season, Diaz is 3 of 28 against righties. The dirty little secret is that you can try to protect Diaz, but eventually, he will face a righty and he's simply not suited to take on that task. It's like Eric Hinske against lefties. If you could bring both of them into a lab and mold them together, you might have a crappy bench player, but at least you wouldn't be holding up two spots on the bench for guys who supposedly have the exact same skill (severe platoon splits in their favor), but aren't producing.
Atlanta's bench has been a monumental failure this season and bringing back Diaz last year is looking like a mistake on Wren's behalf. Something needs to be done about the black hole of WilDiSke. Of the three, only Hinske can even say he has produced in the last three seasons. Start with Diaz and Wilson and go from there, Frank. Your team needs your wheeling and dealin.'
Please, Frank. You're our only hope.
Thursday, July 5, 2012
Taking a Break from Jonny
There are some rumors stemming from a Luis Avilan tweet that the lefty will be headed to Atlanta and likely will be replacing Jonny Venters. It would be cool if it was Avilan since he was one of my "Random Prospects" and would be the first of them to get the Walk-Off Walk bump. Avilan had just joined the Gwinnett Braves today after the Atlanta cut D.J. Carrasco and needed a spot in AA for Ben Sheets. On the year, Avilan was 3-6 for Mississippi with a 3.23 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 8.1 K/9, and a 1.8 K/BB ratio while appearing in 16 games and 12 starts. In his last outing on July 1st, he struck out five over five scoreless, though he walked four.
However, this is more about Jonny Venters. The left-hander appeared in his 40th game tonight, which is pretty absurd considering the quality of his pitching this season. After Randall Delgado gave up a double to open the seventh, Fredi Gonzalez pulled the righty for Venters. I could write a thesis on Fredi's inability to manage his starters properly and give his bullpen the best chance for success, but I haven't found the time just yet. Venters induces a grounder that puts Darwin Barney, who doubled, on third with one out. It was 2-1 at the time. That's about when shit got real. Wild pitch to score Barney, Jeff "Joe Don" Baker homers, and a grounder before Fredi, apparently feeling spry, removes Venters to led Chad Durbin finish the frame.
The homer given up to Baker was Venters's sixth homer allowed this year. In his first two seasons, while pitching in about 7,000 games, Venters had allowed all of three homers. We all know that Venters lives on his heavy sinker. He's still inducing about 61% grounders, but when they get the bat under the ball, they are driving it to undisclosed locations. To put it in another way...Venters has allowed 14 flyballs all season and almost half have left the reservation. It is enough to wrinkle someone's brain.
It's mind boggling. Venters has essentially lost confidence in his best pitch and has attempted to supplement a third pitch that he rarely utilized in '10-'11. Last year, nearly 93% of pitches he threw were classified by his PITCHf/x as either his sinker or his slider. Hell, 73% of the time, he was throwing sinkers. The other 7% were called straight fastballs, unknown, and a super small percent of the time...0.1%...Venters threw his ugly changeup. That was down from about 1% in 2010. He averaged a little less than an 8 mph difference between the two and was probably his third or fourth pitch from his minor league starting days. However, this season, likely because he has no confidence in his sinker since it's being bashed, Venters has thrown 7.2% changeups to absolutely no success. And the odd thing is that Venters velocity is a tick down from 94-95 mph to 93-94 mph, but his changeup is a bit faster. So, now there is a difference of about 6 mph. I don't know if this paragraphs is all that meaningful, but it could be something. Or nothing.
Regardless, Venters wFB (which does include sinkers/straight fastballs) last season was a nasty 11.9. His slider is downright evil as well. However, his wFB this season has almost gone completely the other way at -9.8. His slider is still okay, but probably because people aren't in 0-2 and 1-2 counts where his slider become unhittable, the pitch has lost its evil factor.
Add in a line drive rate that is 10% higher this season than last and just about anytime a player can put the ball into the air, he has a 50/50 shot at going yard and Venters has been a train-wreck to watch this season. Some of it is bad luck. A .432 BABIP stands out worse rational thought on Fox News. His xFIP is pretty much in line with his previous numbers and really, his K and BB rate fairly in line with his career norms. However, whether it's mechanical, injury, an arm that is overly fatigued from two abusive seasons, or he's betting on the other team, Venters has been a disaster for the Braves this season. If the news is what it seems to be and he's headed down, hopefully, it will jump-start him. Otherwise, Atlanta will be up a feces-filled creek.
However, this is more about Jonny Venters. The left-hander appeared in his 40th game tonight, which is pretty absurd considering the quality of his pitching this season. After Randall Delgado gave up a double to open the seventh, Fredi Gonzalez pulled the righty for Venters. I could write a thesis on Fredi's inability to manage his starters properly and give his bullpen the best chance for success, but I haven't found the time just yet. Venters induces a grounder that puts Darwin Barney, who doubled, on third with one out. It was 2-1 at the time. That's about when shit got real. Wild pitch to score Barney, Jeff "Joe Don" Baker homers, and a grounder before Fredi, apparently feeling spry, removes Venters to led Chad Durbin finish the frame.
The homer given up to Baker was Venters's sixth homer allowed this year. In his first two seasons, while pitching in about 7,000 games, Venters had allowed all of three homers. We all know that Venters lives on his heavy sinker. He's still inducing about 61% grounders, but when they get the bat under the ball, they are driving it to undisclosed locations. To put it in another way...Venters has allowed 14 flyballs all season and almost half have left the reservation. It is enough to wrinkle someone's brain.
It's mind boggling. Venters has essentially lost confidence in his best pitch and has attempted to supplement a third pitch that he rarely utilized in '10-'11. Last year, nearly 93% of pitches he threw were classified by his PITCHf/x as either his sinker or his slider. Hell, 73% of the time, he was throwing sinkers. The other 7% were called straight fastballs, unknown, and a super small percent of the time...0.1%...Venters threw his ugly changeup. That was down from about 1% in 2010. He averaged a little less than an 8 mph difference between the two and was probably his third or fourth pitch from his minor league starting days. However, this season, likely because he has no confidence in his sinker since it's being bashed, Venters has thrown 7.2% changeups to absolutely no success. And the odd thing is that Venters velocity is a tick down from 94-95 mph to 93-94 mph, but his changeup is a bit faster. So, now there is a difference of about 6 mph. I don't know if this paragraphs is all that meaningful, but it could be something. Or nothing.
Regardless, Venters wFB (which does include sinkers/straight fastballs) last season was a nasty 11.9. His slider is downright evil as well. However, his wFB this season has almost gone completely the other way at -9.8. His slider is still okay, but probably because people aren't in 0-2 and 1-2 counts where his slider become unhittable, the pitch has lost its evil factor.
Add in a line drive rate that is 10% higher this season than last and just about anytime a player can put the ball into the air, he has a 50/50 shot at going yard and Venters has been a train-wreck to watch this season. Some of it is bad luck. A .432 BABIP stands out worse rational thought on Fox News. His xFIP is pretty much in line with his previous numbers and really, his K and BB rate fairly in line with his career norms. However, whether it's mechanical, injury, an arm that is overly fatigued from two abusive seasons, or he's betting on the other team, Venters has been a disaster for the Braves this season. If the news is what it seems to be and he's headed down, hopefully, it will jump-start him. Otherwise, Atlanta will be up a feces-filled creek.
Sunday, July 1, 2012
Howdy Ben Sheets!
If you haven't heard by now, Atlanta has agreed to a minor league contract with former Brewers workhorse, Ben Sheets. The Braves were one of the few teams that watched a simulated five-inning stint Sheets threw at Georgia Tech last week and saw enough to believe that it was time to act. Sheets' agent and Braves GM Frank Wren agreed to the deal Saturday night and after Sheets passed the physical today, the comeback attempt was on. Sheets was hitting the low 90's in his simulated game, which is encouraging because that's where he has lived his whole career.
Sheets broke into the majors just two seasons after he was selected with the 10th overall pick in the 1999 draft. He rocketed up the ladder, recording 13 starts in AAA as a 21-22 year-old in his second professional season and started 25 games in the bigs in 2001 as the Brewers' future ace. After three seasons of harnessing his ability, Sheets broke out in 2004, striking out 264 batters for the Brewers in a worrisome 237 innings. When people ask why pitchers get babied, Sheets can often be cited as a cautionary tale. Three seasons of 215 innings and Sheets as a workhorse was done.
He would miss considerable time over the next three seasons, never starting more than 24 games at the MLB level or pitching over 160 innings. He was able to turn the corner some in 2008, but seeking out a playoff run, the Brewers rode Sheets and C.C. Sabathia into the ground down the stretch. While they made the playoffs, the damage was done. Sheets threw a ridiculous amount of curveballs in 2008...33% of his pitches were curveballs, in fact. Amazingly, that's the second most curveballs by percentage he had thrown in his career. Sheets was diagnosed with a tear in his right elbow and missed the playoffs.
After missing 2009, Sheets caught on with the A's in 2010. The results weren't so pretty. The 4.71 FIP he suffered through was the second worst of his career (have to go back to his rookie year for the worst). His K/9 rate tumbled while his walk rate went higher than ever before. In late July, his season was over after a torn flexor in his right elbow that required Tommy John.
But he's back...what can the Braves expect? Not really sure. Sheets will begin a minor league stint with Mississippi soon and is expected to make a couple of starts. If he starts getting back to his Brewers days, the Braves have acquired a big arm for the playoff push. If he looks like the guy who was fairly abysmal in 20 starts with the A's in 2009, did Atlanta waste too much time putting hope in a guy who is done rather than bring in an impact starter?
Provided they aren't putting too much into the hope that Sheets comes back at his 2004-2008 self, the Braves acquired a guy for pennies that can provide pretty much anything they may have gotten in trades for the likes of Joe Saunders or Jason Vargas. They can continue to seek out an impact arm like Zack Greinke and see if things work for bringing him in with an extension. If Sheets puts up a 1.20 WHIP, keeps the BB/9 rate under 3 and the K/BB rate over 2, the Braves are getting massive bang for their buck.
Can't say anything bad about this pickup provided that it does nothing to keep Wren from continuing to try to work a deal for an impact arm.
Sheets broke into the majors just two seasons after he was selected with the 10th overall pick in the 1999 draft. He rocketed up the ladder, recording 13 starts in AAA as a 21-22 year-old in his second professional season and started 25 games in the bigs in 2001 as the Brewers' future ace. After three seasons of harnessing his ability, Sheets broke out in 2004, striking out 264 batters for the Brewers in a worrisome 237 innings. When people ask why pitchers get babied, Sheets can often be cited as a cautionary tale. Three seasons of 215 innings and Sheets as a workhorse was done.
He would miss considerable time over the next three seasons, never starting more than 24 games at the MLB level or pitching over 160 innings. He was able to turn the corner some in 2008, but seeking out a playoff run, the Brewers rode Sheets and C.C. Sabathia into the ground down the stretch. While they made the playoffs, the damage was done. Sheets threw a ridiculous amount of curveballs in 2008...33% of his pitches were curveballs, in fact. Amazingly, that's the second most curveballs by percentage he had thrown in his career. Sheets was diagnosed with a tear in his right elbow and missed the playoffs.
After missing 2009, Sheets caught on with the A's in 2010. The results weren't so pretty. The 4.71 FIP he suffered through was the second worst of his career (have to go back to his rookie year for the worst). His K/9 rate tumbled while his walk rate went higher than ever before. In late July, his season was over after a torn flexor in his right elbow that required Tommy John.
But he's back...what can the Braves expect? Not really sure. Sheets will begin a minor league stint with Mississippi soon and is expected to make a couple of starts. If he starts getting back to his Brewers days, the Braves have acquired a big arm for the playoff push. If he looks like the guy who was fairly abysmal in 20 starts with the A's in 2009, did Atlanta waste too much time putting hope in a guy who is done rather than bring in an impact starter?
Provided they aren't putting too much into the hope that Sheets comes back at his 2004-2008 self, the Braves acquired a guy for pennies that can provide pretty much anything they may have gotten in trades for the likes of Joe Saunders or Jason Vargas. They can continue to seek out an impact arm like Zack Greinke and see if things work for bringing him in with an extension. If Sheets puts up a 1.20 WHIP, keeps the BB/9 rate under 3 and the K/BB rate over 2, the Braves are getting massive bang for their buck.
Can't say anything bad about this pickup provided that it does nothing to keep Wren from continuing to try to work a deal for an impact arm.
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